Urban carbon neutralization path analysis system and analysis method thereof

Abstract

The invention provides an urban carbon neutralization path analysis system and an analysis method thereof. The urban carbon neutralization path analysis system comprises a data acquisition module, a data arrangement module, a region division module, a carbon balance calculation module, a path setting module, a path analysis module and a result output module, according to the invention, through regular rasterization region division, fine modeling of the city space is realized; the carbon sequestration capacity is dynamically estimated by combining multiple types of carbon sources and multiple types of vegetation carbon sequestration factors with an NDVI time sequence index, so that a carbon-oxygen balance calculation result has time sensitivity and spatial resolution; meanwhile, the path analysis module supports a user to set various energy structures, traffic modes and greenbelt lifting parameter combinations to form a multi-path parallel simulation matrix, the selection space of path decision is effectively expanded, the system can realize comparable carbon neutralization evolution analysis according to regions and time periods, and the effects of improving the analysis precision and enhancing the path deduction capability are achieved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of carbon emission assessment and analysis, and particularly relates to an urban carbon neutrality path analysis system and an analysis method thereof. Background Art

[0002] In urban carbon neutrality analysis, the prior art often estimates the emissions and carbon sink levels of the whole city using the average annual emission value and plans the carbon neutrality path in a static manner. Such methods ignore the significant differences in emission intensity and greening structure among different regions within the city, fail to construct the carbon source-carbon sink correspondence at the spatial unit level. At the same time, the estimation of vegetation carbon sink is mostly based on a fixed value method, and fails to consider the dynamic fluctuations of the carbon absorption capacity of different vegetation types under different seasons and climate conditions. Especially in large and medium-sized cities with complex heterogeneous greening distributions such as trees and shrubs, this rough estimation will lead to insufficient accuracy in the overall carbon neutrality analysis; Therefore, an urban carbon neutrality path analysis system and an analysis method thereof are proposed. Summary of the Invention

[0003] In view of this, the present invention provides an urban carbon neutrality path analysis system and an analysis method thereof to solve or alleviate the technical problems existing in the prior art and at least provide a beneficial option.

[0004] The technical solution of the present invention is realized as follows: An urban carbon neutrality path analysis system includes: A data acquisition module for collecting carbon emission activity data and carbon sink related data within the urban area, where the carbon emission activity data includes industrial energy consumption, road traffic fuel usage, building electricity consumption, and residential domestic natural gas usage, and the carbon sink related data includes the area, plant species, growth status, and carbon fixation amounts corresponding to environmental meteorological parameters of various urban vegetation at different times within the year; A data sorting module for performing unit conversion, numerical calibration, time format unification, and structured processing on the data obtained by the data acquisition module; A regional division module for performing spatial regional division on the data output by the data sorting module based on urban administrative boundaries, functional zoning maps, or regular grid templates, dividing the city into multiple spatial units with definite boundaries, and assigning a unique number to each spatial unit; A carbon balance calculation module for calculating the total carbon emissions and total carbon absorption amounts within a set time period for each spatial unit respectively, where the total carbon emissions are accumulated item by item based on industrial, transportation, building, and living data, and the total carbon absorption amount is calculated based on the vegetation carbon sink estimation coefficient and the time series calculation model, and the carbon balance calculation module outputs the carbon-oxygen difference of each spatial unit; A path setting module, which is used to receive the urban carbon neutrality target value, the implementation time range, the energy structure adjustment parameter, the green space coverage change parameter, and the traffic structure change ratio input by the user, and generate a path combination plan with a clear number for all input parameters; A path analysis module, which is used to compare and analyze each combination plan generated by the path setting module with the current carbon balance state provided by the carbon balance calculation module one by one, calculate the carbon emission reduction amount, the carbon sink increase amount, and the carbon balance change trend at each stage of each plan, and output the annual carbon emission value, the annual carbon sink value, and the cumulative carbon-oxygen difference sequence corresponding to each plan; A result output module, which is used to receive the data sequence output by the path analysis module; Among them, the data collection module and the data sorting module are connected through the field mapping method; the output of the data sorting module is used as the input of both the regional division module and the carbon balance calculation module at the same time; the path setting module and the path analysis module are connected through the number matching method; the output of the path analysis module is directly called by the result output module.

[0005] Further preferably, the carbon balance calculation module calculates the carbon-oxygen difference based on the following formula: ΔC = Et - St, where ΔC represents the carbon-oxygen difference, Et represents the total carbon emissions of various carbon source activities, and St represents the total carbon sink of various types of vegetation; The calculation method of Et is as follows: various carbon source activities are divided into four categories: industrial emissions, transportation emissions, building operation emissions, and domestic emissions. According to the carbon emission factor database released by the industry, carbon emission factors are assigned to each category of activity data, and data aggregation calculation is carried out; The calculation method of St is as follows: urban vegetation is divided into categories of trees, shrubs, grasslands, and vertical greening. The product of the carbon absorption capacity per unit area and the actual distribution area is calculated for each category, and cumulative summation is carried out in units of months or quarters according to seasonal changes. Finally, a data table of the total carbon sink of each region and each time period is output.

[0006] Further preferably, the following time-series carbon sink model is adopted for the estimation of vegetation carbon sink: Si(t) = Ai × fi × NDVIi(t), where Si(t) represents the carbon sink value of the i-th type of vegetation at time t, Ai represents the coverage area of this type of vegetation, fi represents the annual carbon absorption factor per unit area, and NDVIi(t) represents the normalized vegetation index of this type of vegetation at time t; The carbon balance calculation module includes a remote sensing data interface module, which regularly calls the NDVI sequence calculated based on the surface reflection band. The data source is the public remote sensing satellite platforms MODIS, Landsat-8 or Sentinel-2. The carbon absorption factors corresponding to various types of vegetation are obtained through field surveys or by referring to industry standard manuals. The model constructs a weighted coefficient function based on the monthly-scale NDVI change curve to subdivide and estimate the change of carbon sink per unit area over the growth cycle. Each type of vegetation is stored in the database in the form of a spatial object, and the NDVI sequence values are associated with it, realizing the hierarchical statistics of carbon sinks by category, time, and space.

[0007] Further preferably, the path analysis module adopts an annual calculation strategy to simulate the evolution of the path plan. The calculation formula is: ΔCn=(E0 - ΣΔEkn)-(S0 + ΣΔSkn), where ΔCn represents the carbon budget value in the nth year, E0 represents the total carbon emissions in the base year, ΔEkn represents the reduction in carbon emissions brought by the kth type of emission reduction measure in the nth year, S0 represents the carbon sink volume in the base year, and ΔSkn represents the increase in carbon sink generated by the kth type of carbon sink measure in the nth year. The path plan consists of elements such as energy structure adjustment, green space increase, building energy conservation, and public transportation substitution. The path analysis module establishes a quantitative calculation model for each measure, defines variable boundaries, control intensity, and time-series process parameters. During the path calculation process, the path analysis module updates the urban emission and carbon sink parameters year by year, generates a carbon budget sequence, and the output form is a JSON-formatted structured data table.

[0008] Further preferably, the regional division module adopts a regular grid division strategy to divide the urban area into multiple 500 m × 500 m grid cells, assigns a unique number to each grid, and the grid number corresponds to the layer coding rule of the urban geographic information system. A mapping relationship between the grid ID and administrative division, land use type, building density, and traffic network density is established in the database. When calculating carbon emissions, each grid is used as the smallest analysis unit, and a traffic activity coefficient, industrial facility location label, and building energy consumption distribution information are respectively assigned. When calculating carbon sinks, the vegetation coverage information is aggregated by grid, and the distribution ratio of various types of vegetation within the calculation unit area is calculated. During the path analysis process, various adjustment parameters use the grid coordinates as the operation target to support regional governance simulation.

[0009] Further preferably, the result output module includes a layer and file generation sub-module and a text report generation sub-module. The output format of the layer file generation sub-module is GeoTIFF, the grid spatial resolution is 500 m, corresponding to the grid cells of the regional division module. Each layer file contains attribute fields, including grid number, annual carbon emission value, annual carbon sink value, carbon balance difference, path number, emission level, and carbon sink level.

[0010] Further preferably, the layers in the result output module express emission levels and carbon sink intensity through color coding, and are compatible with ArcGIS and QGIS platforms. The text report generation submodule outputs PDF files, and the report content includes: basic project information, path simulation setting table, annual series emission-carbon sink statistics table, main indicator change chart, path comparison overview table, data source and model algorithm description appendix, all charts are equipped with header field descriptions and unit annotations, and the output file number is consistent with the scheme identifier in the system database for comparison and review.

[0011] Further preferably, the system further comprises a carbon emission factor management module, which is used to store and update the carbon emission factors used in various carbon emission activities, and automatically synchronize the updated factors to the emission accounting process of the carbon balance calculation module; The carbon emission factor management module includes a factor classification management unit, a source registration unit and a version control unit. The factor classification management unit divides industrial energy factors, transportation energy factors, building power factors and life factors into four categories according to the carbon source type, and each category has specific subcategories; the source registration unit records the source description, publishing agency, release date, unit, applicable scope and reference number of each factor; the version control unit performs version numbering and change records for each updated factor, and the records include update time, modified fields, modification reasons and original version backup path.

[0012] The present invention also provides an analysis method for an urban carbon neutrality path analysis system, comprising the following analysis steps: Step S1, urban carbon emission data collection, obtaining quantitative data such as industrial energy consumption, transportation fuel, building electricity, and residential gas consumption, and collecting the actual area, growth cycle classification, variety attribution, growth period, and meteorological parameters of various urban greening areas; Step S2, perform unified data sorting and processing, standardize the units of all raw data, align the time format, encode the spatial location information, and build a unified structured database; Step S3, dividing the city administrative area into spatial units according to regular grids (500m×500m) or city partitions, forming an analysis unit table with one-to-one correspondence between spatial coordinates and geographical blocks; Step S4, according to various carbon source emission factors and carbon sink vegetation absorption factors, based on the Et and St model formulas, calculate the carbon emission value and carbon sink value for each spatial unit on an annual or quarterly scale, and output the carbon-oxygen difference value ΔC; Step S5, combining and forming a path simulation input parameter set according to the neutralization target time limit, energy adjustment coefficient, greening growth plan, and traffic structure ratio input by the user; Step S6: Use the annual path iteration model to calculate the carbon emission trend and carbon sink change trend corresponding to the path plan, and generate a carbon neutrality time series prediction table corresponding to the path; Step S7: Output the analysis results of all path plans as layers and charts, providing horizontal comparison between plans and vertical decomposition data of a single plan; Step S8: Generate a final PDF report and GeoTIFF layer, with data index tables, legend indexes, and file number metadata embedded in the file.

[0013] Further preferably, the analysis step further includes the following path iteration simulation sub-process: Step T1: Initialize the total urban carbon emission E0 and the total urban carbon sink S0 in the base year, and construct a base spatial grid distribution map; Step T2: Set the path plan number Ri and its parameter variable group, including: energy structure variable ei, transportation substitution variable ti, building energy conservation variable bi, and greening coverage rate variable gi; Step T3: In the nth year of simulation, calculate the emission reduction and sink increase contribution of that year according to the parameter variable values in the path plan R_i, and update En and Sn; Step T4: Calculate ΔCn = En - Sn, and record it in the path evolution matrix Mi = [ΔC1, ΔC2,... ΔCn]; Step T5: Repeat the process from T3 to T4 until the simulation period reaches the target year Y; Step T6: Output the Mi path sequence and generate a comparison table, including the En value, Sn value, and ΔCn value at each year node, the path plan identification number Ri, and the corresponding variable value record table, forming a structured analysis output file.

[0014] Due to the adoption of the above technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention, it has the following advantages: Through the regular rasterized area division, the present invention realizes the fine modeling of urban space; through multiple types of carbon sources and multiple types of vegetation carbon sink factors, combined with the NDVI time series index to dynamically estimate the carbon sink capacity, making the calculation result of the carbon-oxygen balance more time-sensitive and spatially resolved; at the same time, the path analysis module supports users to set multiple combinations of energy structures, transportation modes, and green space improvement parameters, forming a multi-path parallel simulation matrix, effectively expanding the selection space of path decisions. This system can realize the carbon neutrality evolution analysis that is regionally and temporally divided and comparable, achieving the effects of improving the analysis accuracy and enhancing the path deduction ability.

[0015] The above summary is only for the purpose of the specification and is not intended to be limiting in any way. In addition to the above-described illustrative aspects, embodiments, and features, further aspects, embodiments, and features of the present invention will be readily apparent by reference to the drawings and the following detailed description. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0016] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application or the prior art, the following will briefly introduce the drawings required for the description of the embodiments or the prior art. Obviously, the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present application. For those of ordinary skill in the art, without creative efforts, other drawings can also be obtained based on these drawings.

[0017] Figure 1 It is a schematic diagram of the functional modules of the urban carbon neutrality path analysis system of the present invention; Figure 2 It is a schematic diagram of the processing flow of the carbon balance calculation module of the present invention; Figure 3 It is a schematic diagram of the step flow of the analysis method of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE EMBODIMENTS

[0018] In the following text, only some exemplary embodiments are briefly described. As those skilled in the art can recognize, the described embodiments can be modified in various different ways without departing from the spirit or scope of the present invention. Therefore, the drawings and the description are considered to be exemplary in nature rather than restrictive.

[0019] The embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail below with reference to the drawings.

[0020] As Figures 1-3 shown, the embodiments of the present invention provide an urban carbon neutrality path analysis system, including: A data acquisition module, configured to acquire carbon emission activity data and carbon sink related data within the scope of the city; the carbon emission activity data includes industrial energy consumption such as coal, natural gas, and petroleum products, road traffic fuel usage, building electricity consumption, and residential natural gas usage; the carbon sink related data includes the coverage area, plant type, growth status, soil conditions, meteorological parameters, and related remote sensing indices of NDVI and EVI of vegetation such as trees, shrubs, grasslands, and vertical greening in different seasons; A data sorting module, which performs standardization and formatting processing on the above-acquired data, including: conversion between different units, filling in missing values, handling outliers, and time series alignment aligned by quarter or month; binding a coordinate system to spatial data for geographic information coding, and converting it into a structured format that can be managed by a database; The area division module is used to divide the urban area into regular grid cells of 500 meters × 500 meters, assign a unique number to each grid, and form an urban spatial grid library. By binding this number to attribute fields such as administrative division codes, land use types, building density, population density, and road density, the spatial unit serves as the basic computing unit for subsequent carbon emission accounting, carbon sink estimation, and path simulation. The carbon balance calculation module takes the grid as the smallest unit and calculates the total carbon emission Et and the total carbon sink St for each grid. Et is obtained by cumulative calculation through the following four types of carbon sources: industrial production emissions EI, building energy consumption emissions EB, transportation emissions ET, and residential living emissions EL, where Et = EI + EB + ET + EL; St is calculated based on vegetation type, growth status, and the normalized difference vegetation index NDVI, using the formula Si(t) = Ai × fi × NDVIi(t), where Ai is the area of the i-th type of vegetation, fi is the carbon sink coefficient per unit area, NDVIi(t) is the normalized index of this type of vegetation at time t, and St is the total sum of the carbon sink of the entire region's vegetation; this system summarizes the grid carbon balance value ΔC = Et - St on a quarterly or annual scale. The path setting module sets the target year for urban carbon neutrality according to the user, and inputs various path variables: energy structure variable ei (such as the proportion of photovoltaic power, the proportion of coal combustion), building energy consumption variable bi (the proportion of building energy efficiency renovation), transportation substitution variable ti (the green travel rate, the proportion of motor vehicle restrictions), and green space variable gi (the newly added green space area, the upgraded green space level). Each combination plan is automatically assigned a path number Ri, and the system can manage multiple path versions to support comparative analysis.

[0021] The path analysis module receives the path plan Ri and its variable group output by the path setting module. Based on the given base year (E0, S0), it uses an iterative model to calculate the carbon emission values En and carbon sink values Sn for each year, and finally outputs ΔCn = En - Sn. For each path plan, it constructs its path evolution matrix Mi = [ΔC1, ΔC2,..., ΔCn].

[0022] The result output module is used to output the above simulation calculation results, including: (1) GeoTIFF layer file, with fields including grid number, path number, En, Sn, ΔCn, carbon emission level, and carbon sink level, which is loaded into spatial visualization platforms such as ArcGIS and QGIS for multi-scale assessment of the city. (2) PDF format report, the content includes the path parameter setting table, carbon emission and carbon sink trend charts, carbon budget difference curves, simulated path comparison tables, and simulated parameter and data source index tables. All tables and charts are accompanied by units, definition explanations, and structured numbers, supporting direct use by urban policy research institutions.

[0023] In addition, the system of the present invention is further provided with an API interface, which provides dynamic data support for the model by accessing third-party meteorological data services, carbon emission factor databases, and urban real-time traffic systems.

[0024] The above is only the specific implementation manner of the present invention, but the protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereto. Any person skilled in the art within the technical scope disclosed by the present invention can easily think of various changes or substitutions, and these should all be covered within the protection scope of the present invention. Therefore, the protection scope of the present invention shall be subject to the protection scope of the claims.

Claims

1. An urban carbon neutrality path analysis system, characterized in that, Including: A data acquisition module for collecting carbon emission activity data and carbon sink related data within the urban area. The carbon emission activity data includes industrial energy consumption, road traffic fuel usage, building electricity consumption, and residential natural gas usage. The carbon sink related data includes the carbon fixation amounts corresponding to the areas, plant species, growth status, and environmental meteorological parameters of various urban vegetation at different time periods within the year; A data arrangement module for performing unit conversion, numerical calibration, time format unification, and structured processing on the data obtained by the data acquisition module; A regional division module for spatially dividing the data output by the data arrangement module based on urban administrative boundaries, functional zoning maps, or regular grid templates, dividing the city into multiple spatial units with definite boundaries, and assigning a unique number to each spatial unit; A carbon balance calculation module for calculating the total carbon emission amount and total carbon absorption amount within a set time period for each spatial unit respectively. The total carbon emission amount is accumulated item by item based on industrial, transportation, building, and living data, and the total carbon absorption amount is calculated based on the vegetation carbon sink estimation coefficient and the time series calculation model. The carbon balance calculation module outputs the carbon-oxygen difference value of each spatial unit; A path setting module for receiving the urban carbon neutrality target value, the implementation time range, the energy structure adjustment parameter, the green space coverage rate change parameter, and the traffic structure change ratio input by the user, and generating a path combination plan with clear numbers for all input parameters; A path analysis module for comparing and analyzing each combination plan generated by the path setting module with the current carbon balance state provided by the carbon balance calculation module one by one, calculating the carbon emission reduction amount, carbon sink increase amount, and carbon balance change trend at each stage of each plan, and outputting the annual carbon emission value, annual carbon sink value, and cumulative carbon-oxygen difference sequence corresponding to each plan; A result output module for receiving the data sequence output by the path analysis module; Among them, the data acquisition module and the data arrangement module are connected through a field mapping method; the output of the data arrangement module serves as the input for both the regional division module and the carbon balance calculation module at the same time; the path setting module and the path analysis module are connected through a number matching method; the output of the path analysis module is directly called by the result output module for use.

2. The urban carbon neutralization path analysis system according to claim 1, characterized in that: The carbon balance calculation module calculates the carbon-oxygen difference based on ΔC = Et - St, where Et is the total carbon emission amount of industrial, transportation, building, and living carbon source activities, and St is the total carbon sink amount of four types of vegetation, namely arbors, shrubs, grasslands, and vertical greening; Et and St are respectively accumulated and summed through the corresponding carbon emission factors and carbon absorption factors, and St is statistically calculated monthly or quarterly.

3. The urban carbon neutrality path analysis system according to claim 1, wherein: The carbon balance calculation module includes a remote sensing data interface module for obtaining MODIS, Landsat-8, or Sentinel-2 data to generate an NDVI sequence. The vegetation carbon sink value Si(t) is calculated by Si(t) = Ai × fi × NDVIi(t), where Ai is the area, fi is the annual carbon absorption factor per unit area, and NDVIi(t) is the normalized vegetation index; various types of vegetation are stored as spatial objects, and the carbon sink is statistically calculated by category, time period, and region.

4. The urban carbon neutrality path analysis system according to claim 1, characterized in that: The path analysis module calculates the carbon balance value of the nth year in the path plan based on the ΔCn=(E0−ΣΔEkn)−(S0+ΣΔSkn) model, where E0 and S0 are the base year emissions and carbon sinks, respectively, and ΔEkn and ΔSkn are the annual changes generated by various measures; the path plan includes energy structure, green space coverage, building energy consumption and traffic ratio parameters.

5. The urban carbon neutrality path analysis system according to claim 1, wherein: The regional division module uses a 500m×500m regular grid to divide the urban area, and numbers each grid to record the administrative area, land use type, building density and traffic density attributes; carbon emissions and carbon sinks are calculated and adjusted in grid units.

6. The urban carbon neutrality path analysis system according to claim 1, characterized in that: The result output module includes layers, file generation submodules and text report generation submodules. The layers are output in GeoTIFF format, including grid number, annual carbon emission value, annual carbon sink value, carbon balance difference, path number, emission level and carbon sink level fields, with a resolution of 500 meters.

7. The urban carbon neutrality path analysis system according to claim 6, characterized in that: The layer supports ArcGIS and QGIS rendering, and uses color scale to represent emission intensity and carbon sink level; the PDF report includes path parameter table, annual carbon balance table, indicator trend chart, path comparison table and model description. All charts are accompanied by field explanations and unit annotations, and the output file number is consistent with the database scheme number.

8. The urban carbon neutrality path analysis system according to claim 1, wherein: The system includes a carbon emission factor management module, which has classification management, source registration and version control functions, supports unified management of industrial, transportation, construction and life factors, records their sources, scope of application and change history, and synchronously updates them to the carbon balance calculation module.

9. The analysis method of an urban carbon neutrality path analysis system according to any one of claims 1-8, characterized in that: The analysis steps include: Step S1, urban carbon emission data collection, obtaining quantitative data such as industrial energy consumption, transportation fuel, building electricity, and residential gas consumption, and collecting the actual area, growth cycle classification, variety attribution, growth period, and meteorological parameters of various urban greening areas; Step S2, perform unified data sorting and processing, standardize the units of all raw data, align the time format, encode the spatial location information, and build a unified structured database; Step S3, dividing the city administrative area into spatial units according to a regular grid of 500m×500m or city partitions, forming an analysis unit table in which spatial coordinates correspond to geographical blocks one by one; Step S4, according to various carbon source emission factors and carbon sink vegetation absorption factors, based on the Et and St model formulas, calculate the carbon emission value and carbon sink value for each spatial unit on an annual or quarterly scale, and output the carbon-oxygen difference value ΔC; Step S5, combining and forming a path simulation input parameter set according to the neutralization target time limit, energy adjustment coefficient, greening growth plan, and traffic structure ratio input by the user; Step S6, using the annual path iteration model to calculate the carbon emission trend and carbon sink change trend corresponding to the path plan, and generate a carbon neutrality time series forecast table corresponding to the path; Step S7, output all path plan analysis results as layers and charts, providing horizontal comparison between plans and vertical decomposition data of a single plan; Step S8, generating a final PDF report and GeoTIFF layer, in which the data indicator table, legend index and file number metadata are embedded.

10. The analysis method of an urban carbon neutrality path analysis system according to claim 9, characterized in that: The analysis step further includes the following path iteration simulation sub-process: Step T1, initialize the total urban carbon emissions E0 and the urban carbon summary value S0 for the base year, and construct a base spatial grid distribution map; Step T2, set the path scheme number Ri and its parameter variable group, including: energy structure variable ei, transportation substitution variable ti, building energy efficiency variable bi, and greening coverage rate variable gi; Step T3, when simulating the nth year, calculate the emission reduction and sink increase contribution for that year according to the parameter variable values in the path scheme R_i, and update En and Sn; Step T4, calculate ΔCn = En - Sn, and record it in the path evolution matrix Mi = [ΔC1, ΔC2,... ΔCn]; Step T5, repeat the process from T3 to T4 until the simulation period reaches the target year Y; Step T6, output the Mi path sequence and generate a comparison table, including the En value, Sn value, and ΔCn value for each year node, the path scheme identification number Ri, and the corresponding variable value record table, to form a structured analysis output file.

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