Earth and rockfill dam flood control standard determination method and system based on dam break risk

Abstract

The invention relates to a dam break risk-based earth and rockfill dam flood control standard determination method and system, and relates to the technical field of water conservancy projects. The method mainly comprises the following steps: calculating total earth and rockfill dam failure probabilities respectively corresponding to different flood recurrence periods according to flood annual exceeding probabilities, earth and rockfill dam failure probabilities and seepage failure independent probabilities respectively corresponding to different flood recurrence periods; according to the total earth and rockfill dam failure probability, the engineering cost, the direct loss, the indirect loss and the environment loss corresponding to the different flood recurrence periods respectively, calculating a first prediction total cost and a second prediction total cost corresponding to the different flood recurrence periods respectively; and according to the first predicted total cost and the second predicted total cost corresponding to the different flood recurrence periods, selecting a target flood recurrence period from the multiple flood recurrence periods as the flood control standard of the earth and rockfill dam.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of water conservancy engineering, and in particular to a method and system for determining flood control standards for earth-rock dams based on dam-break risks. Background Art

[0002] Floods, caused by heavy rainfall, snowmelt, dam breaches, and other factors, cause enormous economic losses and casualties. To effectively address floods, scientific flood risk assessments and optimized flood control project designs are crucial. Flood risk assessments aim to predict the likelihood and impact of floods by analyzing historical and real-time monitoring data, providing a scientific basis for flood control project design.

[0003] In recent years, China has conducted nationwide flood risk zoning, proposing the use of a comprehensive flood risk index to characterize flood risk. This has resulted in a national flood risk zoning initiative. Existing technologies use a wide range of flood control standards, with no standardized upper and lower limits. The selection of indicators is highly subjective, and different values can affect flood control safety assurance capabilities, the level and scale of embankment design projects, and the amount of capital investment. Furthermore, these technologies fail to fully consider flood risk factors, hindering the construction of urban flood control projects. Summary of the Invention

[0004] The present invention aims to provide a method and system for determining flood control standards for earth-rock dams based on dam failure risks, so as to address the deficiencies in the prior art. The technical problems to be solved by the present invention are achieved through the following technical solutions.

[0005] An embodiment of the present invention provides a method for determining flood control standards for earth-rockfill dams based on dam failure risk, the method comprising:

[0006] Obtain the flood annual exceedance probability corresponding to different flood return periods, as well as the failure probability of earth-rock dam and the independent probability of seepage damage;

[0007] Calculate the total earth-rock dam failure probability corresponding to different flood return periods according to the flood annual exceedance probability corresponding to the different flood return periods, the earth-rock dam failure probability and the seepage failure independence probability;

[0008] Calculate the first predicted total cost and the second predicted total cost corresponding to different flood recurrence periods respectively by using the total earth-rock dam failure probability, engineering cost, direct loss, indirect loss and environmental loss corresponding to the different flood recurrence periods respectively;

[0009] A target flood recurrence period is selected from a plurality of flood recurrence periods according to the first predicted total costs and the second predicted total costs corresponding to the different flood recurrence periods as a flood control standard for earth-rock dams.

[0010] In an optional embodiment, the calculating of the second predicted total costs corresponding to different flood recurrence periods using the total earth-rock dam failure probability, engineering cost, direct loss, indirect loss, and environmental loss corresponding to the different flood recurrence periods includes:

[0011] Direct loss factors, indirect loss factors, and environmental loss factors are predicted based on historical data of the target area and historical data with the same attributes as the target area;

[0012] Correct direct losses, indirect losses and environmental losses through direct loss factors, indirect loss factors and environmental loss factors;

[0013] The second predicted total cost corresponding to different flood return periods is calculated based on the corrected direct losses, indirect losses, environmental losses and total earth-rock dam failure probability.

[0014] In an optional embodiment, selecting a target flood recurrence period from a plurality of flood recurrence periods as the earth-rockfill dam flood control standard according to the first predicted total costs and the second predicted total costs corresponding to the different flood recurrence periods includes:

[0015] Performing weighted calculation on the first predicted total cost and the second predicted total cost to obtain final predicted total costs corresponding to different flood return periods;

[0016] A target flood recurrence period is selected from a plurality of flood recurrence periods according to the final predicted total cost as a flood control standard for earth-rockfill dams.

[0017] In an optional embodiment, selecting a target flood recurrence period from a plurality of flood recurrence periods as a flood control standard for earth-rockfill dams according to the final predicted total cost includes:

[0018] For each flood return period, the data of the final predicted total cost, total earth-rock dam failure probability, number of people affected by the earth-rock dam area, and environmental loss calculation flood return period are standardized;

[0019] The final predicted total cost, total earth-rock dam failure probability, number of people affected by the earth-rock dam area, and environmental losses after data standardization are weighted to calculate the comprehensive score for each flood return period;

[0020] The flood recurrence period with the highest comprehensive score is taken as the target flood recurrence period, and the target flood recurrence period is determined as the flood control standard for earth-rock dams.

[0021] An embodiment of the present invention provides a system for determining flood control standards for earth-rock dams based on dam failure risk, the system comprising:

[0022] The acquisition module is used to obtain the flood annual exceedance probability corresponding to different flood recurrence periods, as well as the failure probability of earth-rock dam and the independent probability of seepage damage;

[0023] A calculation module, configured to calculate the total earth-rock dam failure probability corresponding to different flood return periods according to the flood annual exceedance probability corresponding to the different flood return periods, the earth-rock dam failure probability and the independent probability of seepage damage;

[0024] The calculation module is further configured to calculate the first predicted total cost and the second predicted total cost corresponding to different flood recurrence periods respectively by using the total earth-rock dam failure probability, engineering cost, direct loss, indirect loss and environmental loss corresponding to the different flood recurrence periods respectively;

[0025] The selection module is used to select a target flood recurrence period as the earth-rock dam flood control standard from multiple flood recurrence periods according to the first predicted total costs and the second predicted total costs corresponding to the different flood recurrence periods.

[0026] The embodiments of the present invention include the following advantages:

[0027] An embodiment of the present invention provides a method and system for determining flood control standards for earth-rock dams based on dam break risks. The method first obtains the flood annual exceedance probabilities corresponding to different flood recurrence periods, as well as the earth-rock dam failure probability and the independent probability of seepage damage; then, the total earth-rock dam failure probabilities corresponding to different flood recurrence periods are calculated based on the flood annual exceedance probabilities, the earth-rock dam failure probabilities, and the independent probability of seepage damage corresponding to the different flood recurrence periods; the first predicted total costs and the second predicted total costs corresponding to the different flood recurrence periods are calculated based on the total earth-rock dam failure probabilities, engineering costs, direct losses, indirect losses, and environmental losses corresponding to the different flood recurrence periods; finally, a target flood recurrence period is selected from multiple flood recurrence periods as the earth-rock dam flood control standard based on the first predicted total costs and the second predicted total costs corresponding to the different flood recurrence periods. Compared with the existing technology, which has a large flood standard interval and no unified standard for the upper and lower limits, the present application calculates the total earth-rock dam failure probability corresponding to different flood recurrence periods based on the flood annual exceedance probability, earth-rock dam failure probability and independent probability of seepage damage corresponding to different flood recurrence periods, so as to calculate the first predicted total cost and the second predicted total cost corresponding to different flood recurrence periods, and thus select the target flood recurrence period from multiple flood recurrence periods as the earth-rock dam flood control standard through the first predicted total cost and the second predicted total cost. Therefore, the present application can improve the accuracy of determining the earth-rock dam flood control standard, which is beneficial to the construction of urban flood control projects. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0028] Figure 1This is a flow chart of a method for determining flood control standards for earth-rock dams based on dam failure risks provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0029] Figure 2 This is a flow chart for determining flood control standards for earth-rock dams provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0030] Figure 3 It is a structural diagram of a system for determining flood control standards for earth-rock dams based on dam failure risks provided by an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0031] It should be noted that, in the absence of conflict, the embodiments and features of the embodiments in this application can be combined with each other. The present invention will be described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and in combination with the embodiments.

[0032] See also Figure 1 , a method for determining flood control standards for earth-rock dams based on dam failure risk provided by an embodiment of the present invention, the method specifically comprising S101-S104:

[0033] S101: Obtain the flood annual exceedance probability corresponding to different flood return periods, as well as the failure probability and independent probability of seepage damage of the earth-rock dam.

[0034] The flood recurrence period is the dam structure corresponding to different design standards (e.g., 100-year and 1000-year floods). The failure probability of the stone dam is the annual probability of dam failure under different flood control standards.

[0035] In an optional embodiment provided in the application, the method of obtaining the flood annual exceedance probability corresponding to different flood recurrence periods includes:

[0036] The flood annual exceedance probability corresponding to different flood return periods is calculated using the following formula:

[0037]

[0038] Among them, AEP(T) is the flood annual exceedance probability with flood return period T, Q T is the flood discharge with flood return period T, ξ is the shape parameter, μ is the location parameter, and σ is the scale parameter.

[0039] For example, parameter μ = 2500m 3 ,σ=400m 3 / s,ξ=0.2,T=100.

[0040] That is, calculate AEP(100)=3000m 3 Flood-year exceedance probability of / s:

[0041]

[0042] In an optional embodiment provided in the application, obtaining the independent probability of seepage damage includes: calculating the gradient difference between the actual hydraulic gradient and the critical hydraulic gradient; if the gradient difference is greater than or equal to 0, it is determined that seepage damage has occurred, and randomly generating N groups of parameter samples through Monte Carlo simulation, and calculating the gradient difference of each group of parameter samples, and determining the independent probability of seepage damage based on the proportion of the gradient difference of the parameter samples that is greater than or equal to 0.

[0043] In this embodiment, the calculation formula of the actual hydraulic gradient is:

[0044]

[0045] The critical hydraulic gradient is:

[0046]

[0047] Where Δh is the head difference, which represents the extreme water level fluctuation, L is the length of the seepage path, G s is the specific gravity of soil particles, and e is the void ratio, which represents the variability of soil density.

[0048] Specifically, this embodiment randomly generates N groups of parameter samples (permeability coefficient k, porosity ratio e, head difference Δh) through Monte Carlo simulation, and then calculates the gradient difference of each group of parameter samples; the number of group parameter samples with gradient differences less than or equal to 0 is counted to obtain the failure probability P f , then the failure probability P f Divide by N to get the independent probability of penetration damage.

[0049] In this embodiment, the core of the earth-rockfill dam failure sub-probability is to quantify the joint probability of multiple independent or correlated failure paths. The main failure modes in this embodiment (based on the analysis of earth-rockfill dam characteristics) may include: overtopping failure: floodwater exceeding the dam crest elevation causes overflow scour; seepage failure: seepage causes piping or internal erosion; slope instability: floods or earthquakes trigger dam slope sliding; and seismic liquefaction: earthquakes cause liquefaction of the dam foundation or dam body materials.

[0050] For various failure modes, obtaining the failure probability of the earth-rock dam in this implementation may include: calculating the failure sub-probabilities of the earth-rock dam using a series model, a parallel model, and a hybrid model; and calculating the failure probability of the earth-rock dam using the following formula:

[0051]

[0052] Among them, P failure|flood(T) The probability of earth-rock dam failure corresponding to the flood return period T. P1 is the failure sub-probability of the earth-rock dam in the series model, P2 is the failure sub-probability of the earth-rock dam in the parallel model, and P3 is the failure sub-probability of the earth-rock dam in the hybrid model. In the series model, dam failure requires the simultaneous occurrence of multiple events, for example: Pdam failure = P(flood exceeding the standard) × P(structural failure | flood occurrence), which is applicable to overtopping failure (flood exceeding the standard is a necessary condition). In the parallel model (logical "OR" relationship), any independent event can lead to dam failure. Hybrid models are complex scenarios that require a combination of series and parallel events.

[0053] For example, floods exceeding the standard (P A =0.01)→overtopping failure (P B|A =0.3)→P1=0.01×0.3=0.003. Parallel model: penetration failure (P C =0.001) or earthquake landslide (P D =0.0005)→P2=1-(1-0.001)(1-0.0005)=0.0015. Hybrid model: Construction defects (P E =0.005)→initiate seepage (P F|E =0.4) or crack extension (P G|E =0.2)→P3=0.005×(0.4+0.2-0.08)=0.0026.

[0054] If each path is independent, the total failure probability is:

[0055]

[0056] S102, calculating the total earth-rock dam failure probability corresponding to different flood recurrence periods according to the flood annual exceedance probability corresponding to different flood recurrence periods, the earth-rock dam failure probability and the independent probability of seepage damage.

[0057] In an optional embodiment provided in the application, the calculating of the total earth-rock dam failure probability corresponding to different flood return periods according to the flood annual exceedance probability corresponding to the different flood return periods, the earth-rock dam failure probability, and the independent probability of seepage damage includes:

[0058] The total earth-rock dam failure probability corresponding to different flood return periods is calculated using the following formula:

[0059] Ptotal(T)=AEP(T)×P failure|flood (T)+P seepage -AEP(T)×P failure|flood (T)×P seepage

[0060] Among them, Ptotal(T) is the total earth-rock dam failure probability corresponding to the flood return period T, AEP(T) is the flood annual exceedance probability of the flood return period T, P failure|tlood (T) is the failure probability of the earth-rock dam corresponding to the flood return period T, which is the conditional probability related to the flood scale, P seepage is the independent probability of seepage damage corresponding to the flood return period T, which is a fixed probability unrelated to the flood.

[0061] S103, calculating the first predicted total cost and the second predicted total cost corresponding to different flood recurrence periods respectively by using the total earth-rock dam failure probability, engineering cost, direct loss, indirect loss and environmental loss corresponding to different flood recurrence periods respectively.

[0062] In an optional embodiment provided in the application, the first predicted total cost corresponding to different flood recurrence periods is calculated by using the total earth-rock dam failure probability, engineering cost, direct loss, indirect loss, and environmental loss corresponding to the different flood recurrence periods, including:

[0063] The first predicted total cost corresponding to different flood return periods is calculated using the following formula:

[0064]

[0065] Among them, C T1 is the first predicted total cost corresponding to the flood return period T, which is the initial investment in flood control projects (such as raising the dam body and reinforcing the spillway), C 工程 is the engineering cost, L 直接 is the direct loss, L 间接 For indirect losses, L 环境 is the environmental loss, r is the discount rate (reflecting the time value of money, usually 5% to 8%), t represents the tth year, Ptotal(T) t is the total earth-rock dam failure probability corresponding to the flood return period T in year t (taking into account the impact of project aging or climate change).

[0066] Direct losses include casualties and property damage. Casualties are calculated based on the value of a statistical life (VSL), for example, approximately 3 million yuan per person in China. Property losses are estimated based on the inundation depth-loss rate curve, estimating the value of damaged homes, farmland, and infrastructure. Indirect losses include economic disruption and traffic paralysis. Economic disruption uses input-output models (such as IMPLAN) to calculate regional GDP losses due to work stoppages. Traffic paralysis measures the supply chain delay costs caused by transport disruptions. For example, a one-month work stoppage results in a 200 million yuan GDP loss, and traffic disruptions cost 50 million yuan, resulting in indirect losses of 250 million yuan. Environmental losses include pollution control and ecological restoration. Pollution control includes the costs of water pollution cleanup and soil remediation, while ecological restoration includes the costs of rebuilding wetlands and fish habitats.

[0067] In an optional embodiment provided in the application, the second predicted total cost corresponding to different flood recurrence periods is calculated respectively through the total earth-rock dam failure probability, engineering cost, direct loss, indirect loss and environmental loss corresponding to the different flood recurrence periods, including: predicting direct loss factors, indirect loss factors and environmental loss factors based on historical data of the target area and historical data with the same attributes as the target area; correcting the direct loss, indirect loss and environmental loss by the direct loss factor, indirect loss factor and environmental loss factor; and calculating the second predicted total cost corresponding to different flood recurrence periods according to the corrected direct loss, indirect loss and environmental loss and the total earth-rock dam failure probability.

[0068] S104 , selecting a target flood recurrence period from a plurality of flood recurrence periods as a flood control standard for earth-rockfill dams according to the first predicted total costs and the second predicted total costs corresponding to different flood recurrence periods.

[0069] like Figure 2 As shown, in an optional embodiment provided by the application, the target flood recurrence period is selected from multiple flood recurrence periods according to the first predicted total cost and the second predicted total cost corresponding to the different flood recurrence periods as the earth-rock dam flood control standard, including:

[0070] S1041: Perform weighted calculation on the first predicted total cost and the second predicted total cost to obtain final predicted total costs corresponding to different flood recurrence periods.

[0071] Among them, the weight values corresponding to the first predicted total cost and the second predicted total cost can be set according to actual needs, or can be determined based on the accuracy rates corresponding to the first predicted total cost and the second predicted total cost obtained from historical data statistics. The higher the accuracy rate, the greater the corresponding weight value.

[0072] S1042: Select a target flood recurrence period from multiple flood recurrence periods according to the final predicted total cost as a flood control standard for earth-rockfill dams.

[0073] Specifically, the method of selecting a target flood recurrence period from multiple flood recurrence periods as the earth-rock dam flood control standard based on the final predicted total cost includes: for each flood recurrence period, performing data standardization on the final predicted total cost, total earth-rock dam failure probability, number of people affected in the earth-rock dam area, and environmental loss to calculate the flood recurrence period; performing weighted calculation on the data-standardized final predicted total cost, total earth-rock dam failure probability, number of people affected in the earth-rock dam area, and environmental loss to obtain a comprehensive score for each flood recurrence period; taking the flood recurrence period with the highest comprehensive score as the target flood recurrence period, and determining the target flood recurrence period as the earth-rock dam flood control standard.

[0074] This embodiment provides a method for determining flood control standards for earth-rock dams based on dam break risks. First, the annual flood exceedance probabilities corresponding to different flood recurrence periods, as well as the earth-rock dam failure probability and the independent probability of seepage damage are obtained. Then, the total earth-rock dam failure probabilities corresponding to different flood recurrence periods are calculated based on the annual flood exceedance probabilities, the earth-rock dam failure probabilities, and the independent probability of seepage damage corresponding to the different flood recurrence periods. The first predicted total cost and the second predicted total cost corresponding to the different flood recurrence periods are calculated based on the total earth-rock dam failure probabilities, engineering costs, direct losses, indirect losses, and environmental losses corresponding to the different flood recurrence periods. Finally, a target flood recurrence period is selected from multiple flood recurrence periods as the flood control standard for earth-rock dams based on the first predicted total cost and the second predicted total cost corresponding to the different flood recurrence periods. Compared with the existing technology, which has a large flood standard interval and no unified standard for the upper and lower limits, the present application calculates the total earth-rock dam failure probability corresponding to different flood recurrence periods based on the flood annual exceedance probability, earth-rock dam failure probability and independent probability of seepage damage corresponding to different flood recurrence periods, so as to calculate the first predicted total cost and the second predicted total cost corresponding to different flood recurrence periods, and thus select the target flood recurrence period from multiple flood recurrence periods as the earth-rock dam flood control standard through the first predicted total cost and the second predicted total cost. Therefore, the present application can improve the accuracy of determining the earth-rock dam flood control standard, which is beneficial to the construction of urban flood control projects.

[0075] It should be understood that the size of the serial numbers of the steps in the above embodiments does not mean the order of execution. The execution order of each process should be determined by its function and internal logic, and should not constitute any limitation on the implementation process of the embodiments of the present invention.

[0076] In one embodiment, a system for determining flood control standards for earth-rock dams based on dam failure risk is provided. Figure 3 As shown in the figure, the functional modules of the system for determining flood control standards for earth-rock dams based on dam failure risk are described in detail as follows:

[0077] An acquisition module 31 is used to obtain the flood annual exceedance probability corresponding to different flood recurrence periods, and to obtain the failure probability of the earth-rock dam and the independent probability of seepage damage;

[0078] A calculation module 32 is configured to calculate the total earth-rock dam failure probability corresponding to different flood return periods based on the flood annual exceedance probability corresponding to the different flood return periods, the earth-rock dam failure probability, and the seepage failure independence probability;

[0079] The calculation module 32 is further configured to calculate the first predicted total cost and the second predicted total cost corresponding to different flood recurrence periods respectively based on the total earth-rock dam failure probability, engineering cost, direct loss, indirect loss and environmental loss corresponding to the different flood recurrence periods respectively;

[0080] The selection module 33 is configured to select a target flood recurrence period as a flood control standard for earth-rock dams from a plurality of flood recurrence periods according to the first predicted total costs and the second predicted total costs corresponding to the different flood recurrence periods.

[0081] In an optional embodiment, the acquisition module 31 is specifically configured to:

[0082] The flood annual exceedance probability corresponding to different flood return periods is calculated using the following formula:

[0083]

[0084] Among them, AEP(T) is the flood annual exceedance probability with flood return period T, Q T is the flood discharge with flood return period T, ξ is the shape parameter, μ is the location parameter, and σ is the scale parameter.

[0085] In an optional embodiment, the acquisition module 31 is specifically configured to:

[0086] Calculate the gradient difference between the actual hydraulic gradient and the critical hydraulic gradient;

[0087] If the gradient difference is greater than or equal to 0, it is determined that penetration damage has occurred, and N groups of parameter samples are randomly generated through Monte Carlo simulation, and the gradient difference of each group of parameter samples is calculated. The independent probability of penetration damage is determined based on the proportion of the gradient difference of the parameter samples that is greater than or equal to 0.

[0088] In an optional embodiment, the acquisition module 31 is specifically configured to:

[0089] The failure sub-probabilities of earth-rock dams are calculated using series model, parallel model and hybrid model respectively.

[0090] The failure probability of earth-rock dam is calculated by the following formula:

[0091]

[0092] Among them, P failure|flood (T) Failure probability of earth-rock dam corresponding to flood return period T, where P1 is the failure sub-probability of earth-rock dam in the series model, P2 is the failure sub-probability of earth-rock dam in the parallel model, and P3 is the failure sub-probability of earth-rock dam in the hybrid model.

[0093] In an optional embodiment, the calculation module 32 is specifically configured to:

[0094] The total earth-rock dam failure probability corresponding to different flood return periods is calculated using the following formula:

[0095] Ptotal(T)=AEP(T)×P failure|flood (T)+P seepage -AEP(T)×P failure|flood (T)×P seepage

[0096] Among them, Ptotal(T) is the total earth-rock dam failure probability corresponding to the flood return period T, AEP(T) is the flood annual exceedance probability of the flood return period T, P failure|flood (T) is the failure probability of earth-rock dam corresponding to flood return period T, P seepage is the independent probability of seepage damage corresponding to the flood return period T.

[0097] In an optional embodiment, the calculation module 32 is specifically configured to:

[0098] The first predicted total cost corresponding to different flood return periods is calculated using the following formula:

[0099]

[0100] Among them, C T1 is the first predicted total cost corresponding to the flood return period T, C 工程 is the engineering cost, L 直接 is the direct loss, L 间接 For indirect losses, L 环境 is the environmental loss, r is the discount rate, t represents the tth year, Ptotal(T) t is the total earth-rock dam failure probability corresponding to the flood return period T in year t.

[0101] In an optional embodiment, the calculation module 32 is specifically configured to:

[0102] Direct loss factors, indirect loss factors, and environmental loss factors are predicted based on historical data of the target area and historical data with the same attributes as the target area;

[0103] Correct direct losses, indirect losses and environmental losses through direct loss factors, indirect loss factors and environmental loss factors;

[0104] The second predicted total cost corresponding to different flood return periods is calculated based on the corrected direct losses, indirect losses, environmental losses and total earth-rock dam failure probability.

[0105] In an optional embodiment, the selection module 33 is specifically configured to:

[0106] Performing weighted calculation on the first predicted total cost and the second predicted total cost to obtain final predicted total costs corresponding to different flood return periods;

[0107] A target flood recurrence period is selected from a plurality of flood recurrence periods according to the final predicted total cost as a flood control standard for earth-rockfill dams.

[0108] In an optional embodiment, the selection module 33 is specifically configured to:

[0109] For each flood return period, the data of the final predicted total cost, total earth-rock dam failure probability, number of people affected by the earth-rock dam area, and environmental loss calculation flood return period are standardized;

[0110] The final predicted total cost, total earth-rock dam failure probability, number of people affected by the earth-rock dam area, and environmental losses after data standardization are weighted to calculate the comprehensive score for each flood return period;

[0111] The flood recurrence period with the highest comprehensive score is taken as the target flood recurrence period, and the target flood recurrence period is determined as the flood control standard for earth-rock dams.

[0112] It should be noted that the above detailed description is exemplary and is intended to provide further explanation of the present application. Unless otherwise specified, all technical and scientific terms used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by those of ordinary skill in the art to which this application belongs.

[0113] The specific limitations of the system for determining flood control standards for earth-rock dams based on dam failure risk can be found in the limitations of the method for determining flood control standards for earth-rock dams based on dam failure risk described above and will not be repeated here. Each module in the aforementioned device can be implemented in whole or in part through software, hardware, or a combination thereof. Each of the aforementioned modules can be embedded in or independent of a processor in a computer device in hardware form, or can be stored in a memory in a computer device in software form, so that the processor can call and execute the operations corresponding to each of the aforementioned modules.

[0114] Those skilled in the art will clearly understand that for the sake of convenience and brevity in description, only the division of the above-mentioned functional units and modules is used as an example. In actual applications, the above-mentioned functions can be distributed and completed by different functional units and modules as needed, that is, the internal structure of the system can be divided into different functional units or modules to complete all or part of the functions described above.

[0115] The above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention, rather than to limit the same. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that they can still modify the technical solutions described in the aforementioned embodiments, or make equivalent replacements for some of the technical features therein. These modifications or replacements do not deviate the essence of the corresponding technical solutions from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the various embodiments of the present invention, and should all be included in the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for determining flood control standards for earth-rock dams based on dam failure risk, characterized in that: The method comprises: Obtain the flood annual exceedance probability corresponding to different flood return periods, as well as the failure probability of earth-rock dam and the independent probability of seepage damage; Calculate the total earth-rock dam failure probability corresponding to different flood return periods according to the flood annual exceedance probability corresponding to the different flood return periods, the earth-rock dam failure probability and the seepage failure independence probability; Calculate the first predicted total cost and the second predicted total cost corresponding to different flood recurrence periods respectively by using the total earth-rock dam failure probability, engineering cost, direct loss, indirect loss and environmental loss corresponding to the different flood recurrence periods respectively; A target flood recurrence period is selected from a plurality of flood recurrence periods according to the first predicted total costs and the second predicted total costs corresponding to the different flood recurrence periods as a flood control standard for earth-rock dams.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The flood annual exceedance probability corresponding to different flood return periods is obtained, including Calculate the flood annual exceedance probability corresponding to different flood return periods.

3. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that The obtaining of the independent probability of penetration damage includes: Calculate the gradient difference between the actual hydraulic gradient and the critical hydraulic gradient; If the gradient difference is greater than or equal to 0, it is determined that penetration damage has occurred, and N groups of parameter samples are randomly generated through Monte Carlo simulation, and the gradient difference of each group of parameter samples is calculated. The independent probability of penetration damage is determined based on the proportion of the gradient difference of the parameter samples that is greater than or equal to 0.

4. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that The obtaining of the earth-rock dam failure probability includes: The failure sub-probabilities of earth-rock dams are calculated using series model, parallel model and hybrid model respectively. The failure probability of earth-rock dam is calculated using the following formula.

5. The method according to claim 3 or 4, characterized in that Calculating the total earth-rock dam failure probability corresponding to different flood return periods according to the flood annual exceedance probability corresponding to the different flood return periods, the earth-rock dam failure probability, and the seepage failure independence probability includes: Calculate the total earth-rock dam failure probability corresponding to different flood return periods.

6. The method according to claim 5, characterized in that Calculating the first predicted total costs corresponding to different flood recurrence periods by using the total earth-rock dam failure probability, engineering cost, direct loss, indirect loss, and environmental loss corresponding to the different flood recurrence periods includes: Calculate the first predicted total cost corresponding to different flood return periods.

7. The method according to claim 5, characterized in that Calculating the second predicted total costs corresponding to different flood recurrence periods by using the total earth-rock dam failure probability, engineering cost, direct loss, indirect loss, and environmental loss corresponding to the different flood recurrence periods includes: Direct loss factors, indirect loss factors, and environmental loss factors are predicted based on historical data of the target area and historical data with the same attributes as the target area; Correct direct losses, indirect losses and environmental losses through direct loss factors, indirect loss factors and environmental loss factors; The second predicted total cost corresponding to different flood return periods is calculated based on the corrected direct losses, indirect losses, environmental losses and total earth-rock dam failure probability.

8. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The step of selecting a target flood return period from a plurality of flood return periods as a flood control standard for earth-rockfill dams according to the first predicted total costs and the second predicted total costs corresponding to the different flood return periods includes: Performing weighted calculation on the first predicted total cost and the second predicted total cost to obtain final predicted total costs corresponding to different flood return periods; A target flood recurrence period is selected from a plurality of flood recurrence periods according to the final predicted total cost as a flood control standard for earth-rockfill dams.

9. The method according to claim 8, characterized in that The step of selecting a target flood recurrence period from a plurality of flood recurrence periods according to the final predicted total cost as a flood control standard for earth-rockfill dams includes: For each flood return period, the data of the final predicted total cost, total earth-rock dam failure probability, number of people affected by the earth-rock dam area, and environmental loss calculation flood return period are standardized; The final predicted total cost, total earth-rock dam failure probability, number of people affected by the earth-rock dam area, and environmental losses after data standardization are weighted to calculate the comprehensive score for each flood return period; The flood recurrence period with the highest comprehensive score is taken as the target flood recurrence period, and the target flood recurrence period is determined as the flood control standard for earth-rock dams.

10. A system for determining flood control standards for earth-rock dams based on dam failure risk, characterized in that: The system comprises: The acquisition module is used to obtain the flood annual exceedance probability corresponding to different flood recurrence periods, as well as the failure probability of earth-rock dam and the independent probability of seepage damage; A calculation module, configured to calculate the total earth-rock dam failure probability corresponding to different flood return periods according to the flood annual exceedance probability corresponding to the different flood return periods, the earth-rock dam failure probability and the independent probability of seepage damage; The calculation module is further configured to calculate the first predicted total cost and the second predicted total cost corresponding to different flood recurrence periods respectively by using the total earth-rock dam failure probability, engineering cost, direct loss, indirect loss and environmental loss corresponding to the different flood recurrence periods respectively; The selection module is used to select a target flood recurrence period as the earth-rock dam flood control standard from multiple flood recurrence periods according to the first predicted total costs and the second predicted total costs corresponding to the different flood recurrence periods.

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