Dam safety monitoring index drawing method

Abstract

The invention discloses a dam safety monitoring index drawing method, and belongs to the technical field of dam safety monitoring. Comprising the steps of obtaining dam deformation monitoring data and corresponding environment data; based on the measuring point data and the environment data, constructing an HST statistical regression model, and performing variable decomposition to obtain an aging component expression; deformation values of different water levels and temperatures are obtained through a convex hull method, and a relation model of the deformation values, the water levels and the air temperatures is established; obtaining a corresponding moment based on the minimum difference distance between the current water level temperature and the historical water level temperature, substituting the moment into a time interval from the current time, and calculating an aging component increment; and substituting the current water level and temperature into the relation model to obtain a deformation value, and adding the aging component increment to obtain a deformation monitoring index. According to the method, the dam deformation envelope value is obtained based on the HST model, the convex hull method and difference distance calculation, monitoring indexes under different water level temperature conditions are set more accurately, the defects of an original method are overcome, and the method has important significance on dam safety control.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of dam safety monitoring, and more particularly to a method for formulating dam safety monitoring indicators. Background Art

[0002] Ensuring its safety and stability is the primary goal of dam operation. Dam monitoring indicators are the main basis for risk control, engineering status evaluation, emergency dispatch, etc. Dam safety monitoring indicators are the main basis for safety monitoring of dams in the operation stage. There are two main bases for formulating monitoring indicators: (1) Monitoring indicator formulation based on monitoring data. The main formulation methods are the 3σ method based on the distribution characteristics of historical monitoring data, the typical small probability method, the maximum entropy method, the cloud model method, etc. (2) Structural calculation-based methods, mainly based on numerical simulation methods such as finite elements, based on the state transition of the dam, the value at the state transition is determined as the monitoring indicator. Representative methods include structural calculation method, limit state method, etc.

[0003] The above-mentioned methods have the following problems: 1) Historical monitoring data does not cover the majority of hazardous operating conditions a project may encounter; most fall within the early elastic operating range. Therefore, the project response represented by the monitoring data only reflects the dam's performance under certain operating conditions. Consequently, the monitoring indicators proposed based on this data fail to reflect the actual dam's condition and are therefore not instructive. 2) The measurement accuracy of monitoring data varies across different monitoring projects. Monitoring indicators derived based on distributional characteristics generally rely on model regression residuals, and the accuracy of monitoring data directly affects the magnitude of these residuals. This often results in lower monitoring indicators with higher monitoring accuracy, leading to a situation that is out of touch with reality. 3) For a few dams, monitoring indicators are formulated based on the maximum and minimum values of historical monitoring data as first-level monitoring indicators. Fixed thresholds are then added or subtracted from these values to form second-level monitoring indicators. A drawback of this approach is that historical maximum and minimum values may have been obtained under different water levels or temperatures. Even if these values do not exceed the maximum or minimum values, this does not necessarily mean that historical conditions have not been breached.

[0004] Therefore, the current method of determining monitoring indicators based on monitoring data still has major problems. It is necessary to propose a more scientific method to find out the engineering status expressed by historical monitoring data. This is an urgent problem that those skilled in the art need to solve. Summary of the Invention

[0005] In light of this, the present invention provides a method for developing dam safety monitoring indicators. Historical monitoring data contains information about the dam's actual response under various operating conditions, and in-depth analysis of this data is crucial for setting monitoring indicators. Especially for dams with a long operating history, a key focus is whether the dam has exceeded its historical response, thereby determining its long-term operational trend. This method, based on the HST model, the convex hull method, and difference distance calculation, identifies the envelope of dam performance under specific environmental conditions to address the problem of setting indicators to determine whether the dam's condition has exceeded the original engineering state.

[0006] In order to achieve the above object, the present invention provides the following technical solutions:

[0007] A method for formulating dam safety monitoring indicators, comprising:

[0008] (1) Obtaining measurement point data and corresponding environmental data;

[0009] (2) Based on the measurement point data and environmental data, the HST model is used for statistical regression modeling to decompose the water level component deformation and temperature component deformation, and generate a mathematical expression for the time-dependent component;

[0010] (3) The convex hull method is used to analyze the decomposed water level component deformation and temperature component deformation, extract the corresponding deformation extreme values under different water level and temperature conditions, and obtain the mapping relationship between the engineering water level, temperature and deformation value;

[0011] (4) Based on the mapping relationship between the project water level, temperature and deformation value, the relationship model between deformation value, water level and temperature is constructed using the polynomial regression method;

[0012] (5) Based on the water level and temperature data at the current moment, calculate the difference between the water level and temperature at each historical moment to obtain the time interval between the historical moment and the current moment;

[0013] (6) Substitute the obtained time interval between the historical moment and the current moment into the mathematical expression of the time-effect component to calculate the increment of the time-effect component;

[0014] (7) Substitute the current water level data and temperature data into the relationship model to obtain the basic deformation prediction value, superimpose the time component increment, and generate the final deformation monitoring index value.

[0015] Furthermore, the measurement point data are the monitoring values measured by the dam deformation monitoring instrument and the corresponding measurement time, and the corresponding environmental data are the water level data and air temperature data at the corresponding measurement point time.

[0016] Furthermore, the convex hull method is used to analyze the decomposed water level component deformation and temperature component deformation, extract the corresponding deformation extreme values under different water level and temperature conditions, and obtain the mapping relationship between the project water level, temperature and deformation value, including:

[0017] (3a) Grouping the data by water level and temperature range to form multiple working condition groups;

[0018] (3b) Perform convex hull analysis on the deformation values within each group of working conditions and extract the upper limit envelope value of the deformation value under each group of working conditions as the deformation extreme value under water level and temperature conditions;

[0019] (3c) Obtain the mapping relationship between engineering water level, temperature and deformation value.

[0020] Furthermore, the relational model is in the form of a quadratic polynomial, and the expression is:

[0021] f(w,t)=a·w 2 +b·w·t+c·t 2 +d·w+e·t+f

[0022] Where w is the water level, t is the air temperature, a, b, c, d, e, and f are the coefficients of the model, and f(w, t) is the fitted deformation value.

[0023] Furthermore, it also includes verifying the fitting effect of the relationship model through residual analysis.

[0024] Furthermore, the water level data and temperature data at the current moment are used to calculate the difference between the water level and temperature at each historical moment, and the time interval between the historical moment and the current moment is obtained.

[0025] Including the calculation of water level difference lw and temperature difference lt, the expression is:

[0026] lw=|w current - w history|

[0027] lt = |t current - t history |

[0028] lw is the water level difference, wcurrent is the current water level, whistory is the historical water level, lt is the temperature difference, tcurrent is the current temperature, thistory is the historical temperature;

[0029] Find the time when the sum of the squares of the water level difference and the temperature difference is the smallest, that is, lw 2 +lt 2 The minimum moment, and calculate the time interval between the current moment and the historical moment.

[0030] As can be seen from the above technical solution, compared with the existing technology, the present invention provides a method for formulating dam safety monitoring indicators. By proposing a convex hull method and differential distance calculation, this method identifies the envelope of dam performance under specific environmental conditions, thereby solving the problem of setting indicators to determine whether the dam's status has exceeded the original engineering state. This method, based on the convex hull method and differential distance calculation, can more accurately set monitoring indicators under different water levels and temperatures, greatly improving the shortcomings of the existing method and having important significance for dam safety management and control. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0031] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the following briefly introduces the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art. Obviously, the drawings described below are merely embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on the provided drawings without paying any creative work.

[0032] Figure 1 It is a schematic diagram of the process of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0033] The following will clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without making creative efforts are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0034] The embodiment of the present invention discloses a method for formulating dam safety monitoring indicators, comprising:

[0035] A method for formulating dam safety monitoring indicators, comprising:

[0036] (1) Obtaining measurement point data and corresponding environmental data;

[0037] (2) Based on the measurement point data and environmental data, the HST model is used for statistical regression modeling to decompose the water level component deformation and temperature component deformation, and generate a mathematical expression for the time-dependent component;

[0038] (3) The convex hull method is used to analyze the decomposed water level component deformation and temperature component deformation, extract the corresponding deformation extreme values under different water level and temperature conditions, and obtain the mapping relationship between the engineering water level, temperature and deformation value;

[0039] (4) Based on the mapping relationship between the project water level, temperature and deformation value, the relationship model between deformation value, water level and temperature is constructed using the polynomial regression method;

[0040] (5) Based on the water level and temperature data at the current moment, calculate the difference between the water level and temperature at each historical moment to obtain the time interval between the historical moment and the current moment;

[0041] (6) Substitute the obtained time interval between the historical moment and the current moment into the mathematical expression of the time-effect component to calculate the increment of the time-effect component;

[0042] (7) Substitute the current water level data and temperature data into the relationship model to obtain the basic deformation prediction value, superimpose the time component increment, and generate the final deformation monitoring index value.

[0043] Specifically, the measuring point data are the monitoring values measured by the dam deformation monitoring instrument and the corresponding measurement time, and the corresponding environmental data are the water level data and temperature data at the corresponding measuring point time.

[0044] Specifically, the measurement point data is fitted with the environmental data to obtain a relationship model, including:

[0045] Use a quadratic polynomial regression model fit:

[0046] f(w,t)=a·w 2 +b·w·t+c·t 2 +d·w+e·t+f

[0047] Where w is the water level, t is the air temperature, a, b, c, d, e, and f are the coefficients of the model, and f(w, t) is the fitted deformation value.

[0048] Specifically, it also includes verifying whether the model fitting effect meets the requirements through residual analysis.

[0049] Specifically, for the current water level data and temperature data, the difference distance from each historical moment is calculated, including the water level difference lw and the temperature difference lt.

[0050] The specific calculation process is to calculate the difference between the current water level and temperature and the historical water level and temperature, and the sum of squares, as shown below:

[0051] For the water level and temperature data at the current moment, calculate the difference between the water level and temperature at each historical moment, and get the time interval between the historical moment and the current moment.

[0052] Including the calculation of water level difference lw and temperature difference lt, the expression is:

[0053] lw=|w current - w history |

[0054] lt=|tcurrent-thistory|

[0055] lw is the water level difference, wcurrent is the current water level, whistory is the historical water level, lt is the temperature difference, tcurrent is the current temperature, thistory is the historical temperature;

[0056] Find the time when the sum of the squares of the water level difference and the temperature difference is the smallest, that is, lw 2 +lt 2 The minimum moment, and calculate the time interval between the current moment and the historical moment.

[0057] Specifically, find the time when the sum of the squares of the water level difference and the temperature difference is the smallest, that is, lw 2 +lt 2 The moment of minimum time, and subtract the previous time from the current time to get the time increment.

[0058] In a specific embodiment, a formula for a dam deformation monitoring indicator is formulated as follows. The displacement indicator can be obtained by substituting the target water level and temperature.

[0059] LA24X:

[0060] f(w,t)=179.2019·w+0.2387·t-1.3872·w 2 -0.0049·w·t-0.0014·t 2 -5783.612

[0061] LA29X:

[0062] f(w,t)=148.4485·w+0.4881·t-1.1490·w 2 -0.0084·w·t-0.0013·t 2 -4792.2538Where w is the water level and t is the air temperature.

[0063] Specifically, the present invention obtains dam deformation monitoring data and corresponding environmental data; constructs an HST statistical regression model based on the measurement point data and environmental data, performs variable decomposition, and obtains a time-dependent component expression; uses the convex hull method to obtain deformation values at different water levels and temperatures, and establishes a relationship model between the deformation value, water level, and air temperature; obtains the corresponding time based on the minimum difference between the current and historical water level temperatures, substitutes the time interval from the current time, and calculates the time-dependent component increment; substitutes the current water level and temperature into the relationship model, obtains the deformation value, and adds the time-dependent component increment to obtain the deformation monitoring index. Based on the HST model, convex hull method, and difference distance calculation, the present invention obtains the dam deformation envelope value and more accurately sets monitoring indicators under different water level and temperature conditions, greatly improving the shortcomings of the original method and having important significance for dam safety management and control.

[0064] This technical invention mainly serves the purpose of dam safety monitoring during operation. Historical monitoring data is a direct reflection of the dam's operating performance over many years and is an important basis for characterizing the dam's status. By establishing a method for formulating monitoring indicators based on monitoring data, it is possible to accurately determine whether the dam's operating performance has exceeded historical limits and whether there is a trend of growth, thereby better assessing the dam's status. The present invention proposes a method based on a combination of the convex hull method and difference calculation, which can more accurately set monitoring indicators under different water levels and temperature conditions, greatly improving the defects of the original method and having important significance for dam safety management and control.

[0065] The various embodiments in this specification are described in a progressive manner, with each embodiment focusing on the differences from other embodiments. Reference can be made to the common and similar parts between the various embodiments. For the devices disclosed in the embodiments, since they correspond to the methods disclosed in the embodiments, the description is relatively simple, and the relevant parts can be referred to the method description.

[0066] The above description of the disclosed embodiments is intended to enable one skilled in the art to implement or use the present invention. Various modifications to these embodiments will be readily apparent to one skilled in the art, and the general principles defined herein may be implemented in other embodiments without departing from the spirit or scope of the present invention. Therefore, the present invention is not limited to the embodiments shown herein but is intended to conform to the widest scope consistent with the principles and novel features disclosed herein.

Claims

1. A method for formulating dam safety monitoring indicators, characterized in that: include: (1) Obtaining measurement point data and corresponding environmental data; (2) Based on the measurement point data and environmental data, the HST model is used for statistical regression modeling to decompose the water level component deformation and temperature component deformation, and generate a mathematical expression for the time-dependent component; (3) The convex hull method is used to analyze the decomposed water level component deformation and temperature component deformation, extract the corresponding deformation extreme values under different water level and temperature conditions, and obtain the mapping relationship between the engineering water level, temperature and deformation value; (4) Based on the mapping relationship between the project water level, temperature and deformation value, the relationship model between deformation value, water level and temperature is constructed using the polynomial regression method; (5) Based on the water level and temperature data at the current moment, calculate the difference between the water level and temperature at each historical moment to obtain the time interval between the historical moment and the current moment; (6) Substitute the obtained time interval between the historical moment and the current moment into the mathematical expression of the time-effect component to calculate the increment of the time-effect component; (7) Substitute the current water level data and temperature data into the relationship model to obtain the basic deformation prediction value, superimpose the time component increment, and generate the final deformation monitoring index value.

2. A method for formulating dam safety monitoring indicators according to claim 1, characterized in that: The measuring point data are the monitoring values measured by the dam deformation monitoring instrument and the corresponding measurement time, and the corresponding environmental data are the water level data and air temperature data at the corresponding measuring point time.

3. A method for formulating dam safety monitoring indicators according to claim 1, characterized in that: The convex hull method is used to analyze the decomposed water level component deformation and temperature component deformation, extract the corresponding deformation extreme values under different water level and temperature conditions, and obtain the mapping relationship between the project water level, temperature and deformation value, including: (3a) Grouping the data by water level and temperature range to form multiple working condition groups; (3b) Perform convex hull analysis on the deformation values within each group of working conditions and extract the upper limit envelope value of the deformation value under each group of working conditions as the deformation extreme value under water level and temperature conditions; (3c) Obtain the mapping relationship between engineering water level, temperature and deformation value.

4. A method for formulating dam safety monitoring indicators according to claim 3, characterized in that: The relational model is in the form of a quadratic polynomial, and the expression is: f(w,t)=a·w 2 +b·w·t+c·t 2 +d·w+e·t+f Where w is the water level, t is the air temperature, a, b, c, d, e, and f are the coefficients of the model, and f(w, t) is the fitted deformation value.

5. A method for formulating dam safety monitoring indicators according to claim 3, characterized in that: It also includes verifying the fitting effect of the relationship model through residual analysis.

6. A method for formulating dam safety monitoring indicators according to claim 1, characterized in that: The water level data and temperature data at the current moment are used to calculate the difference between the water level and temperature at each historical moment, and the time interval between the historical moment and the current moment is obtained. Including the calculation of water level difference lw and temperature difference lt, the expression is: lw=|w current - w history| lt = |t current - t history | lw is the water level difference, wcurrent is the current water level, whistory is the historical water level, lt is the temperature difference, tcurrent is the current temperature, thistory is the historical temperature; Find the time when the sum of the squares of the water level difference and the temperature difference is the smallest, that is, lw 2 +lt 2 The minimum moment, and calculate the time interval between the current moment and the historical moment.

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