Offshore platform valve leakage fault rate assessment method, device, equipment and medium

Abstract

The invention relates to the field of valve leakage fault rate evaluation, and discloses an offshore platform valve leakage fault rate evaluation method, device and equipment and a medium. The method can respond to the leakage fault rate assessment instruction carrying the target valve type, and at least one to-be-assessed valve of which the valve type is the target valve type in the offshore platform is determined. And based on the operation record data of each to-be-evaluated valve, target valves with leakage faults are determined in the at least one to-be-evaluated valve, and the total number of the target valves is counted. According to the total number of the target valves and the operation record data of at least part of the to-be-evaluated valves, the leakage failure rate of the to-be-evaluated valves is evaluated. According to the method, the valve leakage fault rate can be intelligently evaluated based on the actual leakage condition of the local valve of the offshore platform and the operation record data of the local valve, the intelligent evaluation degree of the valve leakage fault rate is improved, and the reliability of valve leakage fault rate evaluation is enhanced.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of valve failure leakage failure rate, and in particular to a method, device, equipment and medium for evaluating the leakage failure rate of valves on an offshore platform. Background Art

[0002] Valve leakage on offshore platforms may lead to leakage of hazardous media such as oil and gas, causing safety accidents such as fire and explosion, and seriously threatening the life safety of platform personnel and the integrity of equipment.

[0003] By evaluating valve leakage failure rates, relevant technologies can identify potential safety hazards in advance, take preventive measures, reduce the probability of accidents, and ensure safe production on offshore platforms.

[0004] However, the related technology is generally used by technicians to evaluate the valve leakage failure rate based on experience, and the level of intelligence is relatively low. Summary of the Invention

[0005] The present invention provides a method, device, equipment and medium for evaluating the leakage failure rate of offshore platform valves, which are used to solve the defect in related technologies that technicians evaluate the valve leakage failure rate based on experience and have a low level of intelligence, and realize intelligent evaluation of the leakage failure rate of offshore platform valves, thereby improving the level of intelligence.

[0006] In a first aspect, the present invention provides a method for evaluating the leakage failure rate of an offshore platform valve, comprising:

[0007] In response to a leakage failure rate evaluation instruction carrying a target valve type, determining at least one valve to be evaluated in the offshore platform whose valve type is the target valve type;

[0008] Based on the operation record data of each valve to be evaluated, determining a target valve that has experienced a leakage failure among the at least one valve to be evaluated, and counting the total number of the target valves;

[0009] The leakage failure rate of the valve to be evaluated is evaluated based on the total number of the target valves and at least part of the operation record data of the valve to be evaluated.

[0010] Optionally, evaluating the leakage failure rate of the valve to be evaluated based on the total number of the target valves and at least part of the operation record data of the valve to be evaluated includes:

[0011] When the total number of the target valves is 0, determining the accumulated working time of each valve to be evaluated according to the operation record data of each valve to be evaluated;

[0012] Adding the accumulated working hours of each valve to be evaluated to obtain the total working hours;

[0013] According to the target valve type, searching for corresponding valve leakage failure rate data in the offshore equipment reliability data OREDA library;

[0014] Determining a reference leakage failure rate corresponding to the target valve type according to the valve leakage failure rate data;

[0015] The leakage failure rate of the valve to be evaluated is determined based on the reference leakage failure rate and the total operating time.

[0016] Optionally, the valve leakage failure rate data includes a failure rate lower limit value, a failure rate average value, a failure rate upper limit value, and a failure rate standard deviation for a severe leakage mode and a degraded leakage mode;

[0017] Determining a reference leakage failure rate corresponding to the target valve type based on the valve leakage failure rate data includes:

[0018] Select the average failure rate of the severe leakage mode and the degraded leakage mode from the lower limit of the failure rate, the average failure rate, the upper limit of the failure rate, and the standard deviation of the failure rate of the severe leakage mode and the degraded leakage mode;

[0019] The average values ​​of the selected failure rates of the severe leakage mode and the degraded leakage mode are added together to obtain a corresponding sum value, which is used as the reference leakage failure rate.

[0020] Optionally, evaluating the leakage failure rate of the valve to be evaluated based on the total number of the target valves and at least part of the operation record data of the valve to be evaluated includes:

[0021] When the total number of the target valves is 1, determine that the number of leakage failures r of the valve to be evaluated within the time variable T obeys the Poisson distribution, and establish a corresponding Poisson distribution expression;

[0022] Constructing a corresponding gamma distribution expression according to the Poisson distribution expression, and constructing a leakage failure rate expression of the valve to be evaluated according to the gamma distribution expression;

[0023] The leakage failure rate of the valve to be evaluated is determined according to the leakage failure rate expression, at least part of the operation record data of the valve to be evaluated, and the OREDA library.

[0024] Optionally, the leakage failure rate expression includes a leakage failure rate variable and a prior distribution parameter variable;

[0025] Determining the leakage failure rate of the valve to be evaluated based on the leakage failure rate expression, at least a portion of the operation record data of the valve to be evaluated, and the OREDA library includes:

[0026] According to the target valve type, searching the OREDA library for a corresponding leakage failure rate point estimate and a leakage failure rate upper limit with a confidence level of 90%;

[0027] Solving the prior distribution parameter variables in the leakage failure rate expression based on the found leakage failure rate point estimate, the leakage failure rate upper limit with a confidence level of 90%, and at least a portion of the operating record data of the valve to be evaluated to obtain the prior distribution parameters;

[0028] The prior distribution parameters obtained by the solution are input into the leakage failure rate expression to solve the leakage failure rate variable, thereby obtaining the leakage failure rate of the valve to be evaluated.

[0029] Optionally, evaluating the leakage failure rate of the valve to be evaluated based on the total number of the target valves and at least part of the operation record data of the valve to be evaluated includes:

[0030] When the total number of the target valves is not less than 2, obtaining the cumulative working time and leakage fault count of each target valve;

[0031] Adding the cumulative operating hours of each target valve to obtain the total operating hours; adding the square values ​​of the cumulative operating hours of each target valve to obtain the time square sum value; and adding the number of leakage failures of each target valve to obtain the total number of failures;

[0032] Dividing the total number of failures by the total operating time to obtain the initial leakage failure rate of the valve to be evaluated;

[0033] Determining a failure rate variance estimate of the valve to be evaluated based on the initial leakage failure rate, the total operating time, and the time sum of squares;

[0034] The leakage failure rate of the valve to be evaluated is determined according to the failure rate variance estimate, the initial leakage failure rate, the accumulated working hours and the number of leakage failures of each valve to be evaluated.

[0035] Optionally, determining the estimated value of the failure rate variance of the valve to be evaluated based on the initial leakage failure rate, the total operating time, and the time sum of squares includes:

[0036] Determining a leakage count deviation measurement indicator based on the initial leakage failure rate, the total operating hours, the cumulative operating hours of each valve to be evaluated, and the number of leakage failures;

[0037] Determining a significant discrete evaluation index based on the leakage number deviation measurement index, the initial leakage failure rate, the total working time and the time square sum value;

[0038] When the significant discrete evaluation index is greater than or equal to 0, calculating the product of the significant discrete evaluation index and the total working time, and using the product as the failure rate variance estimate;

[0039] When the significant discrete evaluation index is less than 0, the failure rate variance estimation value is determined to be 0.

[0040] In a second aspect, the present invention provides an offshore platform valve leakage failure rate assessment device, comprising:

[0041] a first determining unit, configured to, in response to a leakage failure rate evaluation instruction carrying a target valve type, determine at least one valve to be evaluated in the offshore platform whose valve type is the target valve type;

[0042] a second determining unit, configured to determine a target valve that has experienced a leakage fault among the at least one valve to be evaluated based on the operation record data of each valve to be evaluated;

[0043] A valve counting unit, configured to count the total number of target valves;

[0044] An evaluation unit is configured to evaluate the leakage failure rate of the valve to be evaluated based on the total number of the target valves and at least a portion of the operation record data of the valve to be evaluated.

[0045] In a third aspect, the present invention provides a computer device comprising: a memory and a processor, the memory and the processor being communicatively connected to each other, the memory storing computer instructions, and the processor executing the computer instructions to thereby execute the offshore platform valve leakage failure rate assessment method of the first aspect or any corresponding embodiment thereof.

[0046] In a fourth aspect, the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium having computer instructions stored thereon, the computer instructions being used to enable a computer to execute the offshore platform valve leakage failure rate assessment method of the above-mentioned first aspect or any corresponding embodiment thereof.

[0047] The present invention provides a method, device, equipment and medium for evaluating leakage failure rate of valves on offshore platforms. The present invention can determine at least one valve to be evaluated in an offshore platform whose valve type is the target valve type in response to a leakage failure rate evaluation instruction carrying the target valve type. Based on the operation record data of each valve to be evaluated, the target valve that has experienced leakage failure is determined in at least one valve to be evaluated, and the total number of target valves is counted. Based on the total number of target valves and the operation record data of at least part of the valves to be evaluated, the leakage failure rate of the valve to be evaluated is evaluated. The present invention can perform an intelligent evaluation of the valve leakage failure rate based on the actual situation of local valve leakage on the offshore platform and the operation record data of the local valves, thereby improving the degree of intelligent evaluation of the valve leakage failure rate and enhancing the reliability of the valve leakage failure rate evaluation. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0048] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the present invention or related technologies, the following is a brief introduction to the drawings required for use in the embodiments or related technical descriptions. Obviously, the drawings described below are some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying any creative work.

[0049] Figure 1 A flow chart of a method for evaluating leakage failure rate of offshore platform valves provided in an embodiment of the present invention;

[0050] Figure 2 A schematic diagram of butterfly valve operation record data provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0051] Figure 3 A schematic diagram of leakage failure rate related data in an OREDA database provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0052] Figure 4 A schematic diagram of ball valve operation record data provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0053] Figure 5 A flow chart of another method for evaluating leakage failure rate of offshore platform valves provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0054] Figure 6 A schematic structural diagram of a device for evaluating leakage failure rate of offshore platform valves provided by an embodiment of the present invention;

[0055] Figure 7 A schematic structural diagram of a computer device provided in an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0056] To make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of the present invention more clear, the technical solutions of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the embodiments described are only some of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of them. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without making creative efforts shall fall within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0057] The following combination Figure 1-Figure 5 The present invention describes a method for evaluating the leakage failure rate of offshore platform valves.

[0058] like Figure 1 As shown, this embodiment proposes a first method for evaluating the leakage failure rate of offshore platform valves, which may include the following steps:

[0059] S101 : In response to a leakage failure rate assessment instruction carrying a target valve type, determining at least one valve to be assessed in an offshore platform whose valve type is the target valve type.

[0060] The target valve type may be a valve type to be evaluated, specifically a butterfly valve, gate valve, regulating valve, throttle valve, stop valve, ball valve, check valve, etc.

[0061] Specifically, the leakage failure rate evaluation instruction can be used to trigger a valve leakage failure rate evaluation.

[0062] It should be noted that the valve leakage failure rate is the probability of the valve leaking.

[0063] The valve to be evaluated is a valve for which a valve failure leakage rate assessment is to be performed. Specifically, the valve to be evaluated is a valve on an offshore platform whose valve type is the target valve type. It is understood that the valve type of the valve to be evaluated is the target valve type.

[0064] Specifically, this embodiment can parse the received leakage failure rate assessment instruction to obtain the target valve type carried in the leakage failure rate assessment instruction, and determine all valves to be assessed in the offshore platform whose valve type is the target valve type based on the target valve type.

[0065] Optionally, this embodiment may first obtain a valve inventory for the offshore platform. The valve inventory contains device information for all valves on the offshore platform, including valve identification codes, valve models, valve locations, and valve types. In this case, based on the target valve type and the valve inventory, this embodiment may determine all valves on the offshore platform to be evaluated that are of the target valve type.

[0066] S102 : Based on the operation record data of each valve to be evaluated, determine a target valve that has experienced a leakage fault in at least one valve to be evaluated.

[0067] The operation record data of the valve to be evaluated may record the failure mode (such as leakage failure) of each failure that has occurred in the history of the valve, the time of occurrence, and the operation time before each failure.

[0068] The target valve is the valve that has experienced leakage failure among all the valves to be evaluated.

[0069] Specifically, in this embodiment, the operation record data of each valve to be evaluated can be obtained respectively, and based on the operation record data of each valve to be evaluated, the target valve that has experienced leakage faults can be determined among all the valves to be evaluated.

[0070] S103: Count the total number of target valves.

[0071] Specifically, in this embodiment, the number of target valves can be counted to determine the total number of target valves.

[0072] S104 : Evaluate the leakage failure rate of the valve to be evaluated based on the total number of target valves and the operation record data of at least part of the valve to be evaluated.

[0073] Specifically, after determining the total number of target valves, this embodiment can evaluate the leakage failure rate of the valves to be evaluated based on the total number of target valves and the operation record data of at least part of the valves to be evaluated.

[0074] The offshore platform valve leakage failure rate assessment method proposed in this embodiment responds to a leakage failure rate assessment instruction carrying a target valve type and identifies at least one valve to be assessed on the offshore platform that is of the target valve type. Based on the operating record data of each valve to be assessed, a target valve that has experienced leakage failures is identified from the at least one valve to be assessed, and the total number of target valves is counted. Based on the total number of target valves and the operating record data of at least some of the valves to be assessed, the leakage failure rate of the valve to be assessed is assessed. This embodiment can intelligently assess the valve leakage failure rate based on the actual situation of local valve leakage on the offshore platform and the operating record data of the local valves, thereby improving the level of intelligent assessment of the valve leakage failure rate and enhancing the reliability of the valve leakage failure rate assessment.

[0075] It should be noted that some related technologies directly quote foreign valve leakage failure rate data to evaluate domestic valve leakage failure rates. However, due to the use environment of foreign offshore platform valve equipment (such as seawater corrosion intensity, temperature and pressure fluctuation range, and complexity of operating conditions), different inspection and maintenance technologies and systems (such as maintenance cycle planning, fault diagnosis methods, and maintenance standards and specifications), and equipment management models (such as quality control processes, operator training systems, and data recording specifications) are not the same. The combined effect of these factors has led to significant differences in the reliability performance of valves in actual operation. If foreign valve leakage failure rate data is directly quoted without localized integration and transformation based on the specific working conditions of domestic platforms, the evaluation results will deviate from the actual situation, making it difficult to accurately reflect the actual leakage risk level of domestic platform valves. In addition, some domestic valves have to quote foreign data to conduct valve leakage probability assessments because they have not undergone systematic reliability analysis and certification, which also affects the quality and effectiveness of valve leakage failure rate assessments. It can be seen that conducting an assessment of the valve leakage failure rate of domestic offshore platforms, establishing an assessment method for the valve leakage failure rate suitable for Chinese offshore platforms, conducting a survey on valve usage and leakage failure case analysis, and constructing an assessment of the valve leakage failure rate of offshore platforms are the objective requirements for the current research on long-term support technology for offshore platforms. Therefore, there is an urgent need for an assessment method for the valve leakage failure rate suitable for domestic offshore platforms to enable a more accurate assessment of valve leakage failures.

[0076] based on Figure 1 This embodiment proposes a second method for evaluating the leakage failure rate of offshore platform valves. In this method, step S104 may include:

[0077] When the total number of target valves is 0, the cumulative working hours of each valve to be evaluated are determined based on the operation record data of each valve to be evaluated;

[0078] Add up the cumulative working hours of each valve to be evaluated to obtain the total working hours;

[0079] According to the target valve type, the corresponding valve leakage failure rate data is searched in the Offshore Reliability Data (OREDA) database;

[0080] According to the valve leakage failure rate data, determine the reference leakage failure rate corresponding to the target valve type;

[0081] Determine the leakage failure rate of the valve to be evaluated based on the reference leakage failure rate and total operating hours.

[0082] Optionally, the valve leakage failure rate data includes the lower limit value, average value, upper limit value, and standard deviation of the failure rate for the severe leakage mode and the degraded leakage mode. In this case, the reference leakage failure rate corresponding to the target valve type is determined based on the valve leakage failure rate data, including:

[0083] Select the average failure rate of the severe leakage mode and the degraded leakage mode from the lower limit of the failure rate, the average failure rate, the upper limit of the failure rate, and the standard deviation of the failure rate of the severe leakage mode and the degraded leakage mode;

[0084] The average failure rates of the selected severe leakage mode and degraded leakage mode are added together to obtain the corresponding sum value and used as the reference leakage failure rate.

[0085] Specifically, when the total number of target valves is 0, this embodiment can determine that the local target valves of the offshore platform have not experienced leakage failures, and evaluate the leakage failure rate of the target valves based on the corresponding method when the total number of target valves is 0.

[0086] In this embodiment, the corresponding valve leakage failure rate data is searched in the OREDA database according to the target valve type.

[0087] Specifically, this embodiment can determine the reference leakage failure rate corresponding to the target valve type based on the valve leakage failure rate data, and then determine the leakage failure rate of the valve to be evaluated based on the reference leakage failure rate and the total operating hours of all valves to be evaluated. The specific calculation process includes:

[0088]

[0089] Among them, α is a fixed intermediate parameter, which is an empirical value. β is an intermediate calculation parameter that comprehensively reflects various factors related to valve failure and is related to the reference leakage failure rate. T1 is the total working time of all valves to be evaluated. α and To be included in the valve leakage failure rate data, This can be determined based on expert experience or by querying the reliability data of similar instruments and equipment in the OREDA database. The leakage failure rate of the valve to be evaluated represents an estimate of the actual leakage failure rate of the current valve based on the existing information.

[0090] In order to better illustrate the execution process of this embodiment, Example 1 is presented for introduction.

[0091] Example 1: When collecting, arranging and confirming Figure 2 The butterfly valve data shown is shown. Refer to the OREDA database for the failure rate data of process medium leakage for butterfly valves of the same specifications.

[0092] like Figure 3 For the OREDA data shown, the initial failure rate estimate, i.e., the reference leakage failure rate, can be referenced from the process media leakage failure mode data. The reference leakage failure rate can be the sum of the average of the leakage-process media (serious) failure rate and the average of the leakage-process media (degraded) failure rate, i.e.:

[0093]

[0094] because Figure 2 There were no leakage failure cases in the collected butterfly valves, so the valve leakage failure rate was evaluated using the leakage failure rate evaluation method when the statistical valve leakage case m=0 (no valve leakage failure case).

[0095] So calculate α and β:

[0096]

[0097]

[0098] Therefore, based on the reliability data of the butterfly valve based on the operating time and foreign data, the leakage failure rate is evaluated as follows:

[0099]

[0100] The offshore platform valve leakage failure rate assessment method proposed in this embodiment can assess the leakage failure rate of the valve to be assessed based on the operation record data of each valve to be assessed and the OREDA database when the total number of target valves is 0. The valve leakage failure rate assessment is effectively combined with the local valve operation data of the offshore platform and the OREDA database, fully considering the actual situation of local valve leakage, reflecting the actual valve operation status of the offshore platform, and is a statistical record of the actual valve operation history. It provides a method reference for domestic valve leakage failure assessment and provides reliability data reference for valve management and maintenance.

[0101] based on Figure 1 This embodiment proposes a third method for evaluating the leakage failure rate of offshore platform valves. In this method, step S104 may include:

[0102] When the total number of target valves is 1, it is determined that the number of leakage failures r of the valve to be evaluated within the time variable T obeys the Poisson distribution, and the corresponding Poisson distribution expression is established;

[0103] Constructing a corresponding gamma distribution expression based on the Poisson distribution expression, and constructing a leakage failure rate expression of the valve to be evaluated based on the gamma distribution expression;

[0104] The leakage failure rate of the valve to be evaluated is determined according to the leakage failure rate expression, at least part of the operation record data of the valve to be evaluated and the OREDA library.

[0105] Optionally, the leakage failure rate expression includes a leakage failure rate variable and a prior distribution parameter variable. In this case, the leakage failure rate of the valve to be evaluated is determined based on the leakage failure rate expression, at least part of the operating record data of the valve to be evaluated, and the OREDA library, including:

[0106] According to the target valve type, the corresponding leakage failure rate point estimate and the upper limit of the leakage failure rate with a confidence level of 90% are found in the OREDA library;

[0107] Solving the prior distribution parameter variables in the leakage failure rate expression based on the found leakage failure rate point estimate, the leakage failure rate upper limit with a confidence level of 90%, and at least a portion of the operating record data of the valve to be evaluated to obtain the prior distribution parameters;

[0108] The solved prior distribution parameters are input into the leakage failure rate expression to solve the leakage failure rate variable and obtain the leakage failure rate of the valve to be evaluated.

[0109] Specifically, under normal operating conditions, the life of valve equipment t is usually approximated by exponential distribution, and its leakage failure rate λ is considered constant. For example, within time T, the number of valve failures r follows the Poisson distribution, that is:

[0110]

[0111] Since the Gamma distribution is naturally conjugate with the Possion distribution, we take the prior distribution Gamma distribution, and its probability density function is:

[0112]

[0113] Among them, r0 and T0 are the prior distribution parameters.

[0114] By calculating the Bayesian formula, the probability density function of its posterior distribution is obtained as follows:

[0115]

[0116] Get failure rate estimates for:

[0117]

[0118] To obtain r0 and T0 in the prior distribution, the following method can be used:

[0119] The OREDA database is consulted to obtain the point estimate of the leakage failure rate λ0 and the upper limit of the leakage failure rate λ with a confidence level of 90% u , calculate r0 and T0 based on the following formula.

[0120]

[0121] Afterwards, this embodiment can be realized by using the known λ0 and λ u , find r0 and T0.

[0122] The solution process of formulas (2) and (3) is as follows: In the association between the gamma distribution and the chi-square distribution, there is the following theoretical relationship: If the random variable λ obeys the gamma distribution g(r o ,T0), then 2T0λ obeys the chi-square distribution with 2r0 degrees of freedom, that is, 2T0λ~χ 2 (2r0). The relationship proof process is as follows:

[0123] If the random variable λ follows the Gamma distribution, its probability density function is

[0124]

[0125] Among them, λ>0, r0>0 are shape parameters, T0>0 is the scale parameter, and is the gamma function.

[0126] If the random variable Y follows a chi-square distribution with n degrees of freedom, it is denoted as Y~χ 2 (n), its probability density function is:

[0127]

[0128] Let Y = 2T0λ, and use the probability density function of λ g(λ|r0,T0) to find the probability density function of Y. The following proves that it conforms to the chi-square distribution with 2r0 degrees of freedom. First, find the inverse function and its derivative. Let Y = 2T0λ, and we can get the inverse function:

[0129]

[0130] Taking the derivative of h(Y), we get:

[0131]

[0132] Then, the probability density function of Y is calculated according to the variable substitution formula.

[0133] In this embodiment, the probability density function of Y can be calculated based on the variable substitution formula of the probability density function, and λ=Y / 2T0 is substituted into the probability density function of the Gamma distribution:

[0134]

[0135] Since h′(Y)=1 / 2T0, we can see that:

[0136]

[0137] When the degree of freedom n = 2r0, the chi-square distribution probability density function is:

[0138]

[0139] So, if the random variable λ follows the gamma distribution g(r o ,T0), then 2T0λ obeys the chi-square distribution with 2r0 degrees of freedom, that is, 2T0λ~χ 2 (2r0).

[0140] Given a confidence level of 90%, the quantile value of the chi-square distribution can be obtained from the quantile table of the chi-square distribution when the degree of freedom is 2r0, and the corresponding 90% confidence upper limit quantile value is χ 2 (2r0,0.05).

[0141] Based on the relationship between the gamma distribution and the chi-square distribution and the definition of the confidence interval, we can establish the equation:

[0142]

[0143] In the field of reliability analysis, the basic definition of failure rate is the probability of failure occurring per unit time. Obviously, the above formula (3) can be obtained. Substitute T0 = r0 / λ0 into λ u =χ 2 After sorting out (2r0,0.05) / 2T0, we can get the above formula (2). Then, we can determine based on the above formula (1)

[0144] The offshore platform valve leakage failure rate assessment method proposed in this embodiment can effectively combine the local valve operation data of the offshore platform and the OREDA database to perform valve leakage failure rate assessment when the total number of target valves is 1. It fully considers the actual situation of local valve leakage, reflects the actual valve operation status of the offshore platform, and is a statistical record of the actual valve operation history. It provides a method reference for domestic valve leakage failure assessment and provides reliability data reference for valve management and maintenance.

[0145] based on Figure 1 This embodiment proposes a fourth method for evaluating the leakage failure rate of offshore platform valves. In this method, step S104 may include:

[0146] When the total number of target valves is not less than 2, the cumulative working hours and leakage fault times of each target valve are obtained;

[0147] The cumulative working hours of each target valve are added together to obtain the total working hours; the square values ​​of the cumulative working hours of each target valve are added together to obtain the time square sum value; the number of leakage failures of each target valve is added together to obtain the total number of failures;

[0148] Divide the total number of failures by the total operating hours to obtain the initial leakage failure rate of the valve to be evaluated;

[0149] Determine the estimated variance of the failure rate of the valve to be evaluated based on the initial leakage failure rate, total operating hours, and the sum of squares of time;

[0150] The leakage failure rate of the valve to be evaluated is determined based on the estimated value of the failure rate variance, the initial leakage failure rate, the cumulative working hours of each valve to be evaluated, and the number of leakage failures.

[0151] Optionally, the above-mentioned determination of the estimated value of the failure rate variance of the valve to be evaluated based on the initial leakage failure rate, the total operating time, and the time sum of squares includes:

[0152] Determine the leakage count deviation metric based on the initial leakage failure rate, total operating hours, cumulative operating hours of each valve to be evaluated, and the number of leakage failures;

[0153] Determine the significant discrete evaluation index based on the leakage number deviation measurement index, initial leakage failure rate, total working time and time square sum value;

[0154] When the significant discrete evaluation index is greater than or equal to 0, the product of the significant discrete evaluation index and the total working time is calculated and used as the estimated value of the failure rate variance;

[0155] When the significant discrete evaluation index is less than 0, the estimated value of the failure rate variance is determined to be 0.

[0156] It should be noted that, in the reliability analysis of actual components, the data sources usually involve multiple valves under different working environments and conditions. This embodiment can perform reliability data analysis of multiple samples.

[0157] If there are m different sample data (one target valve corresponds to one sample data), for sample i (i.e. a target valve), it is known that in the total service time T i (i.e. the cumulative working time of the target valve) i Leakage faults (i.e., number of leakage faults), i = 1, 2, ..., m. Sample i, with a constant leakage fault λ i ,i=1,2,…,m。 Due to the operation and environmental conditions, the sample interval λi Assume that the valve leakage failure rate follows a certain distribution, and its probability density function is π(λ).

[0158] Average leakage failure rate:

[0159]

[0160] To obtain the estimated values ​​of multiple samples, this embodiment may perform the following process:

[0161] Calculate the initial leakage failure rate of the valve to be evaluated

[0162]

[0163] Calculate the following intermediate variables:

[0164]

[0165] Among them, T i Refers to the total service time T of all m samples i The total working time obtained by summing up is used to comprehensively consider the service time of all samples. S2 refers to the total service time T of all m samples i The time square sum value obtained by squaring and then summing reflects the accumulation of the square value of the sample service time. is the initial leakage failure rate, the initial estimate of the leakage failure rate λ. v represents the overall deviation between the actual number of failures and the predicted number of failures, and is used to characterize the degree of deviation related to the number of failures.

[0166] Calculate an estimate of the variance of the failure rate like:

[0167]

[0168] but:

[0169]

[0170] like:

[0171]

[0172] but:

[0173]

[0174] In this embodiment, the leakage failure rate of the valve to be evaluated can be determined based on the following formula:

[0175]

[0176] To better illustrate the execution process of this embodiment, the following Example 2 is provided for introduction:

[0177] Example 2: After collecting valve sample data, the sample data is processed to obtain the relationship between the valve failure rate and the operating history of the valve type, such as Figure 4 shown.

[0178] First, for the collected ball valve leakage failure case data, m = 3, the leakage failure rate method of multiple samples is selected. First, the initial estimate of the leakage failure rate of this type of ball valve is calculated, that is, the initial leakage failure rate:

[0179]

[0180] Then calculate:

[0181]

[0182] Then calculate the estimate of the sample variance:

[0183]

[0184] Then evaluate and obtain the estimated value of the leakage failure rate of this type of ball valve, that is, the leakage failure rate is:

[0185]

[0186] The offshore platform valve leakage failure rate assessment method proposed in this embodiment can effectively combine the local valve operation data of the offshore platform and the OREDA database to perform valve leakage failure rate assessment when the total number of target valves is greater than 1. It fully considers the actual situation of local valve leakage, reflects the actual valve operation status of the offshore platform, and is a statistical record of the actual valve operation history. It provides a method reference for domestic valve leakage failure assessment and provides reliability data reference for valve management and maintenance.

[0187] like Figure 5 As shown, in another offshore platform valve leakage failure rate assessment method proposed in this embodiment, the following steps may be included:

[0188] S1. Determine the scope of valve data collection based on valve type. Collect basic valve data, valve leakage case data (if any), and daily valve operation and maintenance data. This mainly includes but is not limited to valve type, manufacturer, specification, medium, pressure, installation time, and operation time.

[0189] S2. Collect valve leakage failure accident cases (if any) based on valve type. Collect valve leakage accident failure record information based on valve type and operation history, focusing on recording the cumulative operation time before the leakage failure and relevant record information of the leakage accident.

[0190] S3. Leakage Failure Prediction: After collecting valve data, verify its authenticity, completeness, and accuracy. The relationship between the operating time before the leakage failure, the number of failures, and the valve leakage failure rate is determined. Using OREDA data on valve process media leakage failure rates, an appropriate evaluation model is constructed. This includes leakage failure rate evaluation methods for scenarios with no leakage, a single valve leak, and multiple valve leaks.

[0191] S4. Based on the statistical number of leakage failure cases, different evaluation methods are run to obtain valve leakage failure rate data, i.e., valve leakage failure rate.

[0192] It can be understood that this embodiment can establish an evaluation process for valve leakage failure rate based on the characteristics of valve failure and statistical data of valve leakage accidents on offshore platforms, determine different evaluation methods based on the statistical frequency of valve leakage accidents, and derive a valve leakage failure rate suitable for the actual offshore platform. This embodiment can more accurately evaluate the valve leakage failure rate of offshore platforms.

[0193] This embodiment constructs a systematic valve failure rate estimation process for both non-leakage and leakage-prone valve operating conditions. Based on this process, combined with leakage failure events and operational records of domestic offshore platform valves, an estimated average valve leakage failure rate is calculated, providing a methodological reference and application exploration for building a reliability database for offshore platform valves. This embodiment can achieve the following technical effects:

[0194] (1) The valve leakage failure evaluated in this embodiment reflects the actual use of the valve to a certain extent. The evaluation result of the valve leakage failure rate is more objective and supported by real data. When collecting data, case data of valve leakage failures are collected, and the operating time of the valves in use is analyzed at the same time, which truly reflects the overall operation of the valve and uses the real case data of valve leakage to evaluate the valve leakage failure rate as much as possible.

[0195] (2) Compared with the related art that directly refers to the data of foreign databases or the valve leakage failure rate assessment based on experience, this embodiment collects samples and selects a valve leakage failure rate assessment method suitable for the characteristics of valve failure cases based on different numbers of valve leakage case data, and accurately assesses the valve leakage failure rate of offshore platforms.

[0196] (3) There is a lack of a systematic database of valve leakage failure rates in China, and the data in foreign databases may not be fully applicable to specific domestic application scenarios. While expert experience is valuable, it may be subjective and limited. Different experts have different experiences and knowledge backgrounds, and the evaluation results of failure rates may vary greatly, making it impossible to provide localized detailed data support. When evaluating the valve leakage failure rate, this embodiment fully considers the actual situation of local valve leakage, reflects the actual valve operation status of the offshore platform, and is a statistical record of the actual valve operation history. It provides a method reference for domestic valve leakage failure evaluation and a reliability data reference for valve management and maintenance.

[0197] like Figure 6 As shown, this embodiment provides a device for evaluating the leakage failure rate of valves on offshore platforms, which may include:

[0198] The first determining unit 601 is configured to determine, in response to a leakage failure rate evaluation instruction carrying a target valve type, at least one valve to be evaluated in the offshore platform whose valve type is the target valve type;

[0199] A second determining unit 602 is configured to determine a target valve that has experienced a leakage fault in at least one valve to be evaluated based on the operation record data of each valve to be evaluated;

[0200] The valve counting unit 603 is used to count the total number of target valves;

[0201] The evaluation unit 604 is configured to evaluate the leakage failure rate of the valve to be evaluated based on the total number of target valves and the operation record data of at least part of the valve to be evaluated.

[0202] It should be noted that the processing of the first determining unit 601, the second determining unit 602, the valve statistics unit 603 and the evaluation unit 604 and the beneficial effects thereof can be referred to in the respective Figure 1 Steps S101 to S104 in the above are not described in detail.

[0203] Optionally, the evaluation unit 604 is further configured to:

[0204] When the total number of target valves is 0, the cumulative working hours of each valve to be evaluated are determined based on the operation record data of each valve to be evaluated;

[0205] Add up the cumulative working hours of each valve to be evaluated to obtain the total working hours;

[0206] According to the target valve type, the corresponding valve leakage failure rate data is searched in the offshore equipment reliability data OREDA database;

[0207] According to the valve leakage failure rate data, determine the reference leakage failure rate corresponding to the target valve type;

[0208] Determine the leakage failure rate of the valve to be evaluated based on the reference leakage failure rate and total operating hours.

[0209] Optionally, the valve leakage failure rate data includes a failure rate lower limit value, a failure rate average value, a failure rate upper limit value, and a failure rate standard deviation for a severe leakage mode and a degraded leakage mode.

[0210] The evaluation unit 604 is further configured to:

[0211] Select the average failure rate of the severe leakage mode and the degraded leakage mode from the lower limit of the failure rate, the average failure rate, the upper limit of the failure rate, and the standard deviation of the failure rate of the severe leakage mode and the degraded leakage mode;

[0212] The average failure rates of the selected severe leakage mode and degraded leakage mode are added together to obtain the corresponding sum value and used as the reference leakage failure rate.

[0213] Optionally, the evaluation unit 604 is further configured to:

[0214] When the total number of target valves is 1, it is determined that the number of leakage failures r of the valve to be evaluated within the time variable T obeys the Poisson distribution, and the corresponding Poisson distribution expression is established;

[0215] Constructing a corresponding gamma distribution expression based on the Poisson distribution expression, and constructing a leakage failure rate expression of the valve to be evaluated based on the gamma distribution expression;

[0216] The leakage failure rate of the valve to be evaluated is determined according to the leakage failure rate expression, at least part of the operation record data of the valve to be evaluated and the OREDA library.

[0217] Optionally, the leakage failure rate expression includes a leakage failure rate variable and a prior distribution parameter variable;

[0218] The evaluation unit 604 is further configured to:

[0219] According to the target valve type, the corresponding leakage failure rate point estimate and the upper limit of the leakage failure rate with a confidence level of 90% are found in the OREDA library;

[0220] Solving the prior distribution parameter variables in the leakage failure rate expression based on the found leakage failure rate point estimate, the leakage failure rate upper limit with a confidence level of 90%, and at least a portion of the operating record data of the valve to be evaluated to obtain the prior distribution parameters;

[0221] The solved prior distribution parameters are input into the leakage failure rate expression to solve the leakage failure rate variable and obtain the leakage failure rate of the valve to be evaluated.

[0222] Optionally, the evaluation unit 604 is further configured to:

[0223] When the total number of target valves is not less than 2, the cumulative working hours and leakage fault times of each target valve are obtained;

[0224] The cumulative operating hours of each target valve are added together to obtain the total operating hours; the square values ​​of the cumulative operating hours of each target valve are added together to obtain the time square sum value; and the number of leakage failures of each target valve are added together to obtain the total number of failures;

[0225] Divide the total number of failures by the total operating hours to obtain the initial leakage failure rate of the valve to be evaluated;

[0226] Determine the estimated variance of the failure rate of the valve to be evaluated based on the initial leakage failure rate, total operating hours, and the sum of squares of time;

[0227] The leakage failure rate of the valve to be evaluated is determined based on the estimated value of the failure rate variance, the initial leakage failure rate, the cumulative working hours of each valve to be evaluated, and the number of leakage failures.

[0228] Optionally, determining a leakage count deviation metric based on the initial leakage failure rate, the total operating hours, the cumulative operating hours of each valve to be evaluated, and the number of leakage failures;

[0229] Determine the significant discrete evaluation index based on the leakage number deviation measurement index, initial leakage failure rate, total working time and time square sum value;

[0230] When the significant discrete evaluation index is greater than or equal to 0, the product of the significant discrete evaluation index and the total working time is calculated and used as the estimated value of the failure rate variance;

[0231] When the significant discrete evaluation index is less than 0, the estimated value of the failure rate variance is determined to be 0.

[0232] The offshore platform valve leakage failure rate assessment device proposed in this embodiment can, in response to a leakage failure rate assessment instruction carrying a target valve type, determine at least one valve to be assessed on the offshore platform whose valve type is the target valve type. Based on the operating record data of each valve to be assessed, a target valve that has experienced leakage failure is determined in at least one valve to be assessed, and the total number of target valves is counted. Based on the total number of target valves and the operating record data of at least some of the valves to be assessed, the leakage failure rate of the valve to be assessed is assessed. This embodiment can perform an intelligent assessment of the valve leakage failure rate based on the actual situation of local valve leakage on the offshore platform and the operating record data of the local valves, thereby improving the level of intelligent assessment of the valve leakage failure rate and enhancing the reliability of the valve leakage failure rate assessment.

[0233] The offshore platform valve leakage failure rate assessment device in this embodiment is presented in the form of a functional unit, where the unit refers to an ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit) circuit, a processor and memory that executes one or more software or fixed programs, and / or other devices that can provide the above functions.

[0234] The embodiment of the present invention also provides a computer device having the above Figure 6 The device shown is used to evaluate the leakage failure rate of valves on offshore platforms.

[0235] See also Figure 7 , a structural diagram of a computer device provided by an optional embodiment of the present invention, the computer device includes: one or more processors 10, a memory 20, and interfaces for connecting various components, including high-speed interfaces and low-speed interfaces. The various components are connected to each other using different buses for communication, and can be installed on a common motherboard or installed in other ways as needed. The processor can process instructions executed in the computer device, including instructions stored in or on the memory to display graphical information of the GUI on an external input / output device (such as a display device coupled to the interface). In some optional embodiments, if necessary, multiple processors and / or multiple buses can be used together with multiple memories. Similarly, multiple computer devices can be connected, and each device provides part of the necessary operations (for example, as a server array, a group of blade servers, or a multi-processor system). Figure 7 A processor 10 is taken as an example.

[0236] The processor 10 may be a central processing unit, a network processor, or a combination thereof. The processor 10 may further include a hardware chip. The hardware chip may be an application-specific integrated circuit, a programmable logic device, or a combination thereof. The programmable logic device may be a complex programmable logic device, a field programmable gate array, a general purpose array logic, or any combination thereof.

[0237] The memory 20 stores instructions that can be executed by at least one processor 10, so as to enable at least one processor 10 to execute the method shown in the above embodiment.

[0238] The memory 20 may include a program storage area and a data storage area, wherein the program storage area may store an operating system and application programs required for at least one function. The data storage area may store data created according to the use of the computer device, etc. In addition, the memory 20 may include a high-speed random access memory and may also include a non-transient memory, such as at least one disk storage device, a flash memory device, or other non-transient solid-state storage device. In some optional embodiments, the memory 20 may optionally include a memory remotely arranged relative to the processor 10, and these remote memories may be connected to the computer device via a network. Examples of the above-mentioned network include, but are not limited to, the Internet, an intranet, a local area network, a mobile communication network, and combinations thereof.

[0239] The memory 20 may include volatile memory, such as random access memory. The memory may also include non-volatile memory, such as flash memory, a hard disk, or a solid-state drive. The memory 20 may also include a combination of the above types of memory.

[0240] The computer device further includes a communication interface 30 for the computer device to communicate with other devices or a communication network.

[0241] The embodiment of the present invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium. The above-mentioned method according to the embodiment of the present invention can be implemented in hardware, firmware, or implemented as a computer code that can be recorded in a storage medium, or implemented as a computer code that is originally stored in a remote storage medium or a non-temporary machine-readable storage medium and downloaded through a network and will be stored in a local storage medium, so that the method described herein can be stored in such software processing on a storage medium using a general-purpose computer, a dedicated processor, or programmable or dedicated hardware. Among them, the storage medium can be a magnetic disk, an optical disk, a read-only storage memory, a random access memory, a flash memory, a hard disk or a solid-state drive, etc.; further, the storage medium can also include a combination of the above-mentioned types of memory. It can be understood that a computer, a processor, a microprocessor controller or programmable hardware includes a storage component that can store or receive software or computer code. When the software or computer code is accessed and executed by a computer, a processor or hardware, the method shown in the above embodiment is implemented.

[0242] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention, rather than to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that they can still modify the technical solutions described in the aforementioned embodiments, or make equivalent replacements for some of the technical features therein. However, these modifications or replacements do not deviate the essence of the corresponding technical solutions from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the various embodiments of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for evaluating the leakage failure rate of offshore platform valves, characterized in that: include: In response to a leakage failure rate evaluation instruction carrying a target valve type, determining at least one valve to be evaluated in the offshore platform whose valve type is the target valve type; Based on the operation record data of each valve to be evaluated, determining a target valve that has experienced a leakage failure among the at least one valve to be evaluated, and counting the total number of the target valves; The leakage failure rate of the valve to be evaluated is evaluated based on the total number of the target valves and at least part of the operation record data of the valve to be evaluated.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The step of evaluating the leakage failure rate of the valve to be evaluated based on the total number of the target valves and at least a portion of the operation record data of the valve to be evaluated comprises: When the total number of the target valves is 0, determining the accumulated working time of each valve to be evaluated according to the operation record data of each valve to be evaluated; Adding the accumulated working hours of each valve to be evaluated to obtain the total working hours; According to the target valve type, searching for corresponding valve leakage failure rate data in the offshore equipment reliability data OREDA library; Determining a reference leakage failure rate corresponding to the target valve type according to the valve leakage failure rate data; The leakage failure rate of the valve to be evaluated is determined based on the reference leakage failure rate and the total operating time.

3. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that The valve leakage failure rate data includes the failure rate lower limit value, failure rate average value, failure rate upper limit value and failure rate standard deviation of the severe leakage mode and the degraded leakage mode; Determining a reference leakage failure rate corresponding to the target valve type based on the valve leakage failure rate data includes: Select the average failure rate of the severe leakage mode and the degraded leakage mode from the lower limit of the failure rate, the average failure rate, the upper limit of the failure rate, and the standard deviation of the failure rate of the severe leakage mode and the degraded leakage mode; The average values ​​of the selected failure rates of the severe leakage mode and the degraded leakage mode are added together to obtain a corresponding sum value, which is used as the reference leakage failure rate.

4. The method according to claim 1, wherein The step of evaluating the leakage failure rate of the valve to be evaluated based on the total number of the target valves and at least a portion of the operation record data of the valve to be evaluated comprises: When the total number of the target valves is 1, determine that the number of leakage failures r of the valve to be evaluated within the time variable T obeys the Poisson distribution, and establish a corresponding Poisson distribution expression; Constructing a corresponding gamma distribution expression according to the Poisson distribution expression, and constructing a leakage failure rate expression of the valve to be evaluated according to the gamma distribution expression; The leakage failure rate of the valve to be evaluated is determined according to the leakage failure rate expression, at least part of the operation record data of the valve to be evaluated, and the OREDA library.

5. The method according to claim 4, characterized in that The leakage failure rate expression includes a leakage failure rate variable and a priori distribution parameter variable; Determining the leakage failure rate of the valve to be evaluated based on the leakage failure rate expression, at least a portion of the operation record data of the valve to be evaluated, and the OREDA library includes: According to the target valve type, searching the OREDA library for a corresponding leakage failure rate point estimate and a leakage failure rate upper limit with a confidence level of 90%; Solving the prior distribution parameter variables in the leakage failure rate expression based on the found leakage failure rate point estimate, the leakage failure rate upper limit with a confidence level of 90%, and at least a portion of the operating record data of the valve to be evaluated to obtain the prior distribution parameters; The prior distribution parameters obtained by the solution are input into the leakage failure rate expression to solve the leakage failure rate variable, thereby obtaining the leakage failure rate of the valve to be evaluated.

6. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The step of evaluating the leakage failure rate of the valve to be evaluated based on the total number of the target valves and at least a portion of the operation record data of the valve to be evaluated comprises: When the total number of the target valves is not less than 2, obtaining the cumulative working time and leakage fault count of each target valve; Adding the cumulative operating hours of each target valve to obtain the total operating hours; adding the square values ​​of the cumulative operating hours of each target valve to obtain the time square sum value; and adding the number of leakage failures of each target valve to obtain the total number of failures; Dividing the total number of failures by the total operating time to obtain the initial leakage failure rate of the valve to be evaluated; Determining a failure rate variance estimate of the valve to be evaluated based on the initial leakage failure rate, the total operating time, and the time sum of squares; The leakage failure rate of the valve to be evaluated is determined according to the failure rate variance estimate, the initial leakage failure rate, the accumulated working hours and the number of leakage failures of each valve to be evaluated.

7. The method according to claim 6, characterized in that The step of determining the estimated value of the failure rate variance of the valve to be evaluated based on the initial leakage failure rate, the total operating time, and the time sum of squares includes: Determining a leakage count deviation measurement indicator based on the initial leakage failure rate, the total operating hours, the cumulative operating hours of each valve to be evaluated, and the number of leakage failures; Determining a significant discrete evaluation index based on the leakage number deviation measurement index, the initial leakage failure rate, the total working time and the time square sum value; When the significant discrete evaluation index is greater than or equal to 0, calculating the product of the significant discrete evaluation index and the total working time, and using the product as the failure rate variance estimate; When the significant discrete evaluation index is less than 0, the failure rate variance estimation value is determined to be 0.

8. An offshore platform valve leakage failure rate assessment device, characterized in that: include: a first determining unit, configured to, in response to a leakage failure rate evaluation instruction carrying a target valve type, determine at least one valve to be evaluated in the offshore platform whose valve type is the target valve type; a second determining unit, configured to determine a target valve that has experienced a leakage fault among the at least one valve to be evaluated based on the operation record data of each valve to be evaluated; A valve counting unit, configured to count the total number of target valves; An evaluation unit is configured to evaluate the leakage failure rate of the valve to be evaluated based on the total number of the target valves and at least a portion of the operation record data of the valve to be evaluated.

9. A computer device, characterized in that: include: A memory and a processor, wherein the memory and the processor are communicatively connected to each other, the memory stores computer instructions, and the processor executes the offshore platform valve leakage failure rate assessment method according to any one of claims 1 to 7 by executing the computer instructions.

10. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that The computer-readable storage medium stores computer instructions, and the computer instructions are used to enable a computer to execute the offshore platform valve leakage failure rate assessment method according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

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