Standby demand determination method and device of power system, electronic equipment and medium

Abstract

The invention discloses a standby demand determination method and device of a power system, electronic equipment and a medium, and relates to the field of power systems. According to the scheme, uncertain parameters such as available installed capacity of a conventional unit, new energy output, tie line external power, tie line external power and load of the power system are related to total supply capability and total demand of the power system; the power generation margin probability quality function of the power system is determined through multi-dimensional probability quality function convolution operation according to the parameters, the mapping relation between the power supply reliability and the standby demand of the power system is further obtained, and therefore the standby demand of the power system can be accurately determined according to the preset power supply reliability index.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of power systems, and in particular to a method, apparatus, electronic device, and medium for determining the reserve demand of a power system. Background Technology

[0002] Accurately determining the reserve requirement of the power system is crucial for ensuring the safe and stable operation of the power grid. In recent years, with the large-scale integration of new energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaics into the power system, the increasing diversification of load structures, and the acceleration of inter-provincial power trading, the power system faces new challenges brought about by the superposition of multiple uncertainties. These uncertainties include, but are not limited to, random load fluctuations, outages of conventional units, randomness of new energy output, and fluctuations in tie-line power. These multi-source uncertainties are coupled with each other, and their complex mechanisms are difficult to fully characterize using traditional methods. This severely tests the adaptability of traditional methods for determining reserve requirements in the power system. Current methods for determining reserve requirements mainly have the following shortcomings: incomplete characterization of multi-source uncertainties, only considering unit outages and load forecasting errors, without fully taking into account random factors such as new energy output and tie-line power fluctuations, resulting in the ineffective analysis of the multi-dimensional uncertainty coupling mechanism; unclear correlation mechanism between reserve and reliability, existing methods are unable to establish a quantitative mapping relationship between reserve requirements and system reliability indicators, resulting in a lack of reliability-oriented scientific basis for reserve requirement assessment, which easily leads to the dual risks of insufficient reserve redundancy or regulation capacity. Summary of the Invention

[0003] The purpose of this invention is to provide a method, apparatus, electronic device, and medium for determining the reserve demand of a power system. This solution considers that uncertain parameters such as the available installed capacity of conventional generating units, renewable energy output, power received from tie lines, power transmitted from tie lines, and load are related to the total supply capacity and total demand of the power system. Therefore, based on these parameters, a multidimensional probability quality function convolution operation can be performed to determine the generation margin probability quality function of the power system. Furthermore, this generation margin probability quality function simultaneously maps the magnitude of the power supply reliability and the magnitude of the reserve demand. Therefore, this solution can accurately determine the reserve demand of the power system based on the generation margin probability quality function and preset power supply reliability indicators. This invention can effectively improve the economic efficiency of reserve demand while ensuring the operational safety of the power system, providing reliable, flexible, and economically sound core technical support for optimized power system dispatch and optimized power market clearing.

[0004] To address the aforementioned technical problems, this invention provides a method for determining the reserve requirement of a power system, comprising:

[0005] Obtain historical available installed capacity of conventional generating units, historical output of new energy sources, historical power received by tie lines, historical power transmitted by tie lines, and historical load of the power system;

[0006] The probability quality function for determining the generation margin of the power system is based on the historical available installed capacity of conventional generating units, the historical output of new energy sources, the historical power received by the tie line, the historical power transmitted by the tie line, and the historical load.

[0007] The explicit mapping relationship between the power supply reliability and reserve demand of the power system is determined based on the probability quality function of the power generation margin, and the target reserve demand of the power system is determined according to the preset power supply reliability index and the explicit mapping relationship.

[0008] Optionally, a probabilistic quality function for determining the generation margin of the power system based on the historical available installed capacity of conventional generating units, the historical output of new energy sources, the historical power received by the tie line, the historical power transmitted by the tie line, and the historical load includes:

[0009] The historical available installed capacity of conventional generating units, the historical output of new energy sources, the historical power received by the tie line, the historical power transmitted by the tie line, and the historical load are fitted to obtain the corresponding probability density functions of available installed capacity of conventional generating units, power output of new energy sources, power received by the tie line, power transmitted by the tie line, and load.

[0010] Based on a preset discretization step size, the probability density functions of the available installed capacity of conventional generating units, the probability density functions of the output of new energy sources, the probability density functions of the power received by the tie line, the probability density functions of the power transmitted by the tie line, and the probability density functions of the load are discretized to obtain the corresponding discrete probability mass functions of the available installed capacity of conventional generating units, the discrete probability mass functions of the output of new energy sources, the discrete probability mass functions of the power received by the tie line, the discrete probability mass functions of the power transmitted by the tie line, and the discrete probability mass functions of the load.

[0011] The probability quality function for determining the generation margin of the power system is based on the discrete probability quality function of the available installed capacity of conventional generating units, the discrete probability quality function of the output of new energy sources, the discrete probability quality function of the power received by the tie line, the discrete probability quality function of the power transmitted by the tie line, and the discrete probability quality function of the load.

[0012] Optionally, a probability quality function for determining the generation margin of the power system is derived based on the discrete probability quality function of the available installed capacity of conventional generating units, the discrete probability quality function of the output of new energy sources, the discrete probability quality function of the power received from the tie line, the discrete probability quality function of the power transmitted from the tie line, and the discrete probability quality function of the load. This includes:

[0013] The discrete probability quality function of the power system's generation margin is obtained by convolving the available installed capacity of the conventional generating units, the discrete probability quality function of the new energy output, the discrete probability quality function of the power received by the tie line, the discrete probability quality function of the power transmitted by the tie line, and the discrete probability quality function of the load using probability quality function convolution operation.

[0014] Optionally, determining the explicit mapping relationship between the power supply reliability and reserve demand of the power system based on the probabilistic quality function of the generation margin includes:

[0015] The minimum value of the power generation margin is determined based on the probability mass function of the power generation margin.

[0016] Determine whether the minimum power generation margin is not less than a preset power generation margin threshold;

[0017] If the minimum power generation margin is less than the preset power generation margin threshold, the reserve requirement range is determined based on the difference between the preset power generation margin threshold and the minimum power generation margin. A first explicit mapping relationship between the power supply reliability index and the reserve requirement of the power system is determined based on the probability quality function of the power generation margin. Based on the first explicit mapping relationship and the preset power supply reliability index, the target reserve requirement of the power system is determined on the basis of meeting the preset power supply reliability index. The target reserve requirement is within the reserve requirement range.

[0018] If the minimum power generation margin is not less than the preset power generation margin threshold, then a second explicit mapping relationship between the power supply reliability index and the reserve requirement of the power system is determined according to the probability quality function of the power generation margin, and the target reserve requirement of the power system is determined based on the second explicit mapping relationship and the preset power supply reliability index, on the basis of satisfying the preset power supply reliability index.

[0019] Optionally, the target reserve requirement of the power system, based on the first explicit mapping relationship and the preset power supply reliability index, is determined, including:

[0020] In the first explicit mapping relationship, determine the backup requirements corresponding to the preset power supply reliability index;

[0021] The backup demand corresponding to the preset power supply reliability index is taken as the target backup demand.

[0022] Accordingly, based on the second explicit mapping relationship and the preset power supply reliability index, the target reserve requirement of the power system is determined on the basis of meeting the preset power supply reliability index, including:

[0023] In the second explicit mapping relationship, the backup requirements corresponding to the preset power supply reliability index are determined;

[0024] The backup demand corresponding to the preset power supply reliability index is taken as the target backup demand.

[0025] To address the aforementioned technical problems, the present invention also provides a power system reserve demand determination device, comprising:

[0026] The acquisition module is used to acquire the historical available installed capacity of conventional generating units, historical output of new energy sources, historical power received by tie lines, historical power transmitted by tie lines, and historical load of the power system.

[0027] The first determining module is used to determine the probabilistic quality function of the power system's generation margin based on the historical available installed capacity of conventional generating units, the historical output of new energy sources, the historical power received by the tie line, the historical power transmitted by the tie line, and the historical load.

[0028] The second determining module is used to determine the explicit mapping relationship between the power supply reliability and reserve requirements of the power system based on the probability quality function of the power generation margin, and to determine the target reserve requirements of the power system according to the preset power supply reliability index and the explicit mapping relationship.

[0029] Optionally, the second determining module includes:

[0030] The first determining unit is used to determine the minimum value of the power generation margin based on the probability quality function of the power generation margin;

[0031] The judgment unit is used to determine whether the minimum power generation margin is not less than a preset power generation margin threshold.

[0032] The second determining unit is used to determine the reserve requirement range based on the difference between the preset power generation margin threshold and the minimum power generation margin when the minimum power generation margin is less than the preset power generation margin threshold; determine the first explicit mapping relationship between the power supply reliability index of the power system and the reserve requirement of the power system based on the probability quality function of the power generation margin; and determine the target reserve requirement of the power system based on the first explicit mapping relationship and the preset power supply reliability index, wherein the target reserve requirement is within the reserve requirement range.

[0033] The third determining unit is used to determine a second explicit mapping relationship between the power supply reliability index and the reserve requirement of the power system based on the probability quality function of the power supply margin when the minimum power generation margin is not less than the preset power generation margin threshold, and to determine the target reserve requirement of the power system based on the second explicit mapping relationship and the preset power supply reliability index, on the basis of satisfying the preset power supply reliability index.

[0034] Optionally, the second determining unit includes:

[0035] The first determining subunit is used to determine the backup requirements corresponding to the preset power supply reliability index in the first explicit mapping relationship;

[0036] The first target backup demand determination subunit is used to take the backup demand corresponding to the preset power supply reliability index as the target backup demand.

[0037] Correspondingly, the third determining unit includes:

[0038] The second determining subunit is used to determine the backup requirements corresponding to the preset power supply reliability index in the second explicit mapping relationship;

[0039] The second target backup requirement determination subunit is used to take the backup requirement corresponding to the preset power supply reliability index as the target backup requirement.

[0040] To address the aforementioned technical problems, the present invention also provides an electronic device, comprising:

[0041] Memory, used to store computer programs;

[0042] A processor is used to implement the steps of the power system backup demand determination method as described above when executing the computer program.

[0043] To address the aforementioned technical problems, the present invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program, which, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the power system backup demand determination method described above.

[0044] The purpose of this invention is to provide a method, apparatus, electronic device, and medium for determining the reserve demand of a power system. This solution considers the available installed capacity of conventional generating units, the output of new energy sources, the power received from tie lines, the power transmitted from tie lines, the load, and the relationship between the total supply capacity and total demand of the power system. Therefore, based on the above parameters, the generation margin probability quality function of the power system can be determined. Furthermore, the generation margin probability quality function corresponds to both the power supply reliability and the reserve demand of the power system. Thus, this solution can accurately determine the reserve demand of the power system based on the generation margin probability quality function and the preset power supply reliability index. Attached Figure Description

[0045] To more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention or the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only embodiments of the present invention. For those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained based on the provided drawings without creative effort.

[0046] Figure 1 A flowchart of a method for determining the reserve requirements of a power system provided by the present invention;

[0047] Figure 2 A flowchart of another method for determining the reserve requirements of a power system provided by the present invention;

[0048] Figure 3 A schematic diagram of the generation margin probability quality function of a power system provided by the present invention;

[0049] Figure 4 A schematic diagram of the structure of a power system backup demand determination device provided by the present invention;

[0050] Figure 5 This is a schematic diagram of the structure of an electronic device provided by the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0051] The core of this invention is to provide a method, apparatus, electronic device, and medium for determining the reserve demand of a power system. This solution considers the available installed capacity of conventional generating units, the output of new energy sources, the power received by the tie line, the power transmitted by the tie line, the load, and the relationship between the total supply capacity and the total demand of the power system. Therefore, based on the above parameters, the generation margin probability quality function of the power system can be determined. Moreover, the generation margin probability quality function corresponds to both the power supply reliability and the reserve demand of the power system. Thus, this solution can accurately determine the reserve demand of the power system based on the generation margin probability quality function and the preset power supply reliability index.

[0052] To make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some embodiments of the present invention, not all embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art without creative effort are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0053] Please refer to Figure 1 , Figure 1 A flowchart illustrating a method for determining reserve requirements in a power system provided by the present invention. This method for determining reserve requirements in a power system includes:

[0054] S11: Obtain the historical available installed capacity of conventional generating units, historical output of new energy sources, historical power received by tie lines, historical power transmitted by tie lines, and historical load of the power system.

[0055] S12: A probabilistic quality function for determining the power generation margin of a power system based on historical available installed capacity of conventional generating units, historical output of new energy sources, historical power received by tie lines, historical power transmitted by tie lines, and historical load.

[0056] S13: Determine the explicit mapping relationship between power supply reliability and reserve demand of the power system based on the probability quality function of power generation margin, and determine the target reserve demand of the power system according to the preset power supply reliability index and the explicit mapping relationship.

[0057] In this invention, considering that uncertainties in the power system include, but are not limited to, random load fluctuations, outages of conventional generating units, randomness in renewable energy output, and fluctuations in tie-line power, it is necessary to first obtain the parameters corresponding to the aforementioned uncertainties in order to accurately determine the reserve requirements of the power system. This includes obtaining the historical available installed capacity of conventional generating units, historical renewable energy output, historical power received by tie-lines, historical power transmitted by tie-lines, and historical load. Furthermore, considering that the reserve requirements of the power system are related to its power supply reliability, and to establish the relationship between power supply reliability and reserve requirements, it is necessary to first determine the probability quality function of the power system's generation margin. Determining the probability quality function of the power system's generation margin requires calculation based on the historical available installed capacity of conventional generating units, historical renewable energy output, historical power received by tie-lines, historical power transmitted by tie-lines, and historical load. Finally, because the probability quality function of the generation margin corresponds to both the magnitude of the power system's power supply reliability and the magnitude of its reserve requirements, the probability quality function of the power system's generation margin can be determined from the probability quality function of the generation margin. Based on the probability quality function of the generation margin and preset power supply reliability indicators, the target reserve requirements of the power system, while meeting the preset power supply reliability indicators, can then be determined. Therefore, this scheme can accurately determine the reserve requirements of the power system based on the generation margin probability quality function and the preset power supply reliability index.

[0058] It should be noted that this solution incorporates multiple uncertainties, such as the available installed capacity of conventional units, renewable energy output, tie-line power, and load demand, into a unified analysis framework, achieving a mathematical representation of their spatiotemporal coupling mechanism. This overcomes the limitations of traditional methods in failing to clearly understand the coupling mechanism of multi-dimensional uncertainties. Furthermore, a multi-dimensional probability quality function convolution model is constructed, establishing an explicit mapping relationship between system power supply reliability and reserve requirements. This enables quantitative analysis of reserve requirements on system power supply reliability, overcoming the problem of unclear relationships between reserve and reliability levels in traditional methods. In addition, this solution determines reserve requirements in reverse based on a preset system power supply reliability threshold, effectively balancing safety and economy, and solving the problems of high redundancy and poor economic efficiency in reserve configuration in traditional methods. Finally, this solution can adapt to scenarios with high proportions of renewable energy grid connection and frequent inter-provincial power trading, effectively capturing and quantifying the impact of uncertainties in complex scenarios. It accurately quantifies the impact of uncertainties and determines reserve requirements based on risk control principles, providing a theoretically rigorous and engineering-applicable decision-making basis for power system optimization scheduling and power market optimization clearing, effectively reducing operational risks caused by multi-source uncertainties.

[0059] It should also be noted that, such as Figure 2As shown, the actual representation of the above parameters is as follows: available installed capacity of conventional generating units (data_conv), renewable energy output (data_renew), tie line power (data_tieline, with positive external power input and negative external power output), and load (data_load). Data on available installed capacity of conventional generating units, renewable energy output, tie line power, and load of a local power grid are selected and calculated according to a certain ratio. The data is sampled at 15-minute intervals, totaling 35,040 sets of data. Furthermore, 15 minutes is not the only possible value for the sampling interval; it can be adaptively adjusted according to actual operating conditions. This invention does not impose specific limitations on this. The discrete probability mass functions corresponding to available installed capacity of conventional generating units (data_conv), renewable energy output (data_renew), tie line power (data_tieline, with positive external power input and negative external power output), and load (data_load) are pmf(conv), pmf(renew), pmf(tieline), and pmf(load), respectively.

[0060] This embodiment provides a method for determining the reserve demand of a power system. This solution considers the available installed capacity of conventional generating units, the output of new energy sources, the power received from tie lines, the power transmitted from tie lines, the load, and the relationship between the total supply capacity and the total demand of the power system. Therefore, based on the above parameters, the generation margin probability quality function of the power system can be determined. Furthermore, the generation margin probability quality function corresponds to both the power supply reliability and the reserve demand of the power system. Thus, this solution can accurately determine the reserve demand of the power system based on the generation margin probability quality function and the preset power supply reliability index.

[0061] Based on the above embodiments:

[0062] As an optional embodiment, a probabilistic quality function for determining the power system's generation margin based on historical available installed capacity of conventional generating units, historical renewable energy output, historical power received from tie lines, historical power transmitted from tie lines, and historical load includes:

[0063] The system fits the historical available installed capacity of conventional generating units, historical renewable energy output, historical power received by tie lines, historical power transmitted by tie lines, and historical load, and obtains the corresponding probability density functions for available installed capacity of conventional generating units, renewable energy output, power received by tie lines, power transmitted by tie lines, and load.

[0064] Based on a preset discretization step size, the probability density functions of available installed capacity of conventional generating units, power output of new energy sources, power received by tie lines, power transmitted by tie lines, and load are discretized to obtain the corresponding discrete probability mass functions of available installed capacity of conventional generating units, power output of new energy sources, power received by tie lines, power transmitted by tie lines, and load.

[0065] The probability quality function for determining the generation margin of the power system is determined based on the discrete probability quality function of the available installed capacity of conventional generating units, the discrete probability quality function of renewable energy output, the discrete probability quality function of power received from tie lines, the discrete probability quality function of power transmitted from tie lines, and the discrete probability quality function of load.

[0066] In this invention, because the probability density function of the generation margin is determined based on various uncertainties in the power system, namely, calculated from historical available installed capacity of conventional generating units, historical renewable energy output, historical power received by tie lines, historical power transmitted by tie lines, and historical load, this scheme selects the kernel density estimation method to fit the historical available installed capacity of conventional generating units, historical renewable energy output, historical power received by tie lines, historical power transmitted by tie lines, and historical load to obtain the corresponding probability density functions for available installed capacity of conventional generating units, renewable energy output, power received by tie lines, power transmitted by tie lines, and load. Furthermore, the above probability density functions correspond to the available installed capacity of conventional generating units, renewable energy output, and tie line power... The continuous probability quality functions of the power rate and load are obtained, and then the discretization operation is used to convert the continuous probability quality functions of the above uncertain variables into corresponding discrete probability quality functions, namely: the discrete probability quality function of the available installed capacity of conventional units, the discrete probability quality function of renewable energy output, the discrete probability quality function of power received from tie lines, the discrete probability quality function of power transmitted from tie lines, and the discrete probability quality function of load. Finally, based on the discrete probability quality functions of the available installed capacity of conventional units, renewable energy output, power received from tie lines, power transmitted from tie lines, and load, the probability quality function of the power generation margin of the power system can be determined, ensuring the completeness and accuracy of the process of determining the probability quality function of the power generation margin.

[0067] It should be noted that in practical applications, the discretization step size dp = 10MW can be set in the preset discretization operation, and probability normalization processing is performed after discretization to ensure that the sum of the probabilities of all discrete points of various uncertain variables is 1. In other feasible embodiments, dp = 10MW is not a unique value, and the dp value can be adaptively adjusted according to the actual working conditions. This invention does not impose specific limitations on this.

[0068] As an optional embodiment, the probability quality function for determining the generation margin of the power system is based on the discrete probability quality function of the available installed capacity of conventional generating units, the discrete probability quality function of renewable energy output, the discrete probability quality function of power received from tie lines, the discrete probability quality function of power transmitted from tie lines, and the discrete probability quality function of load. This includes:

[0069] The probability quality function of the power system's generation margin is obtained by convolving the discrete probability quality functions of the available installed capacity of conventional generating units, the discrete probability quality function of renewable energy output, the discrete probability quality function of power received by tie lines, the discrete probability quality function of power transmitted by tie lines, and the discrete probability quality function of load through probability quality function convolution operation.

[0070] In this invention, considering that the convolution operation of probability quality functions has the effect of analyzing the combined effect of multiple uncertain factors, this scheme uses the convolution operation of probability quality functions to convolve the discrete probability quality functions of the available installed capacity of conventional units, the discrete probability quality functions of new energy output, the discrete probability quality functions of power received by tie lines, the discrete probability quality functions of power transmitted by tie lines, and the discrete probability quality functions of load, so as to obtain the probability quality function of the power generation margin of the power system, thus ensuring the accuracy of the calculation process of the probability quality function of the power generation margin of the power system.

[0071] It should be noted that the probability quality function convolution operation is used to analyze the combined effect of multiple uncertain factors and obtain the probability quality function of the system's power generation margin. The discrete probability quality function representing supply capacity is convolved with the discrete probability quality function representing demand. This embodiment performs the following three convolution operations in sequence: First convolution: The discrete probability quality function pmf(conv) of the available installed capacity of conventional units is convolved with the discrete probability quality function pmf(renew) of the renewable energy output to obtain the probability quality function pmf(local) of the total local power generation capacity; Second convolution: The probability quality function pmf(local) of the total local power generation capacity is convolved with the discrete probability quality function pmf(tieline) of the tie-line power to obtain the probability quality function pmf(gene) of the total available supply capacity of the system; Third convolution: A discrete probability quality function pmf(op_load) of the inverse of the system load is created, and the probability quality function pmf(gene) of the total available supply capacity of the system is convolved with pmf(op_load) to finally obtain the probability quality function pmf(margin) of the system's power generation margin. In other feasible embodiments, the number of convolutions and their order are not unique. The number of convolutions and their order can be adaptively adjusted according to actual working conditions. This invention does not impose specific limitations on this.

[0072] As an optional implementation, determining the explicit mapping relationship between power system supply reliability and reserve demand based on a probabilistic quality function of generation margin includes:

[0073] The minimum value of the power generation margin is determined based on the probability mass function of the power generation margin.

[0074] Determine whether the minimum power generation margin is not less than the preset power generation margin threshold;

[0075] If the minimum power generation margin is less than the preset power generation margin threshold, the range of reserve demand is determined based on the difference between the preset power generation margin threshold and the minimum power generation margin. The first explicit mapping relationship between the power supply reliability index and the reserve requirements of the power system is determined based on the probability quality function of the power generation margin. The target reserve demand of the power system is determined based on the first explicit mapping relationship and the preset power supply reliability index, and the target reserve demand is within the range of reserve demand.

[0076] If the minimum power generation margin is not less than the preset power generation margin threshold, then the second explicit mapping relationship between the power supply reliability index and the power system reserve requirements is determined according to the probability quality function of the power generation margin. Based on the second explicit mapping relationship and the preset power supply reliability index, the target reserve requirement of the power system is determined on the basis of meeting the preset power supply reliability index.

[0077] In this invention, such as Figure 2As shown in step S5, considering that the relationship between the minimum generation margin under the generation margin probability distribution and the preset generation margin threshold corresponds to the relationship between the total power supply capacity and reserve demand of the power system, determining the target reserve demand of the power system requires first determining the relationship between the minimum generation margin under the generation margin probability distribution and the preset generation margin threshold. If the minimum generation margin under the generation margin probability distribution is less than the preset generation margin threshold, the range of reserve demand can be determined based on the difference between the preset generation margin threshold and the minimum generation margin, and the first explicit mapping relationship between the power supply reliability index and the reserve requirements of the power system can be determined based on the probability quality function of the generation margin. Similarly, if the minimum generation margin under the generation margin probability distribution is not less than the preset generation margin threshold... Then, the second explicit mapping relationship between the power system's power supply reliability index and its reserve requirements can be determined based on the probability quality function of the power generation margin. Furthermore, the target reserve requirement of the power system, based on meeting the preset power supply reliability index, can be determined according to the second explicit mapping relationship and the preset power supply reliability index. Therefore, both the first and second explicit mapping relationships correspond to the power system's power supply reliability rate and its reserve requirements. Thus, based on the first explicit mapping relationship and the preset power supply reliability index, or the second explicit mapping relationship and the preset power supply reliability index, the target reserve requirement of the power system, based on meeting the preset power supply reliability index, can be determined. Moreover, the target reserve requirement corresponding to the first explicit mapping relationship should be within the range of reserve requirements to ensure the integrity and reliability of the scheme.

[0078] It should be noted that, as Figure 3 As shown, the first explicit mapping relationship is: ;

[0079] reliability is the power supply reliability rate of a power system, p margin,base To preset the power generation margin threshold, p margin,min p represents the minimum power generation margin. margin,max p represents the maximum generation margin corresponding to the generation margin probability quality function. reserve This represents the generation margin corresponding to the reserve requirements of the power system. When the reserve demand of the power system is any non-negative value, the power supply reliability rate of the power system is 1, i.e., the second explicit mapping relationship is: As long as the above relationship is satisfied, the backup demand and power supply reliability of the power system can be guaranteed. The minimum value among non-negative values ​​is 0, so it can be determined that the minimum backup demand to satisfy the power supply reliability is 0.

[0080] It should also be noted that the power generation margin threshold p in this scheme margin,base =0MW, but p margin,base=0MW is not a unique value, and the specific value of the power generation margin threshold can be adaptively adjusted according to actual operating conditions. This invention does not impose specific limitations on this.

[0081] As an optional embodiment, the target reserve requirement of the power system is determined based on a first explicit mapping relationship and preset power supply reliability indicators, while meeting the preset power supply reliability indicators, including:

[0082] In the first explicit mapping relationship, determine the backup requirements corresponding to the preset power supply reliability index;

[0083] The backup demand corresponding to the preset power supply reliability index is taken as the target backup demand.

[0084] Accordingly, based on the second explicit mapping relationship and the preset power supply reliability index, the target reserve requirement of the power system is determined on the basis of meeting the preset power supply reliability index, including:

[0085] In the second explicit mapping relationship, the backup requirements corresponding to the preset power supply reliability index are determined;

[0086] The backup demand corresponding to the preset power supply reliability index is taken as the target backup demand.

[0087] In this invention, because the first explicit mapping relationship corresponds to the power supply reliability rate and the power system's reserve requirement, in order to determine the target reserve requirement of the power system while meeting the preset power supply reliability index, it is necessary to first determine the reserve requirement that matches the power supply reliability rate corresponding to the preset power supply reliability index in the first explicit mapping relationship, and then take the reserve requirement that matches the power supply reliability rate corresponding to the preset power supply reliability index as the target reserve requirement, thus accurately obtaining the target reserve requirement. Similarly, because the second explicit mapping relationship also corresponds to the power supply reliability rate and the power system's reserve requirement, it is necessary to determine the reserve requirement corresponding to the preset power supply reliability index in the second explicit mapping relationship, and then take the reserve requirement corresponding to the preset power supply reliability index as the target reserve requirement, ensuring the completeness of the solution.

[0088] It should be noted that, based on the preset reliability index `target_reliability`, and the explicit mapping relationship between system power supply reliability and reserve requirement `reserve` obtained from the above determination process, the minimum reserve requirement level `target_reserve` required to meet the system reliability level is found. Based on the explicit mapping relationship between power supply reliability and reserve requirement, the first index position greater than or equal to the target power supply reliability rate is found. If an exact match is found, the corresponding reserve requirement value is directly returned; if the target quantile is between two power supply reliability rates, the reserve requirement at the corresponding power supply reliability rate is found through linear interpolation. In practical applications, other methods can also be chosen to find the corresponding reserve requirement; this invention does not impose specific limitations on this. Furthermore, the differences between the reserve requirement under this scheme and the reserve requirement under traditional methods are shown in Table 1.

[0089] Table 1

[0090]

[0091] As shown in Table 1, the reserve requirement determined by traditional methods is a fixed value, which cannot be adjusted according to the specific reliability requirements of the system. If the reserve setting is too low, it is insufficient to cope with potential fluctuations and accidents, and the system may face the risk of power imbalance; if the reserve setting is too high, especially in scenarios with relatively low reliability requirements, excessive generation capacity will be reserved, which will sacrifice the economic efficiency of the power system. In contrast, the method proposed in this invention can select the corresponding reserve requirement based on the system's preset reliability level. As the power supply reliability requirement increases, the reserve requirement calculated by the method of this invention also increases accordingly. This characteristic of the reserve requirement value dynamically adjusting with the reliability level allows the system to select an appropriate reliability level according to actual needs and determine the matching reserve requirement. Therefore, the method proposed in this invention can better cope with the reserve requirement caused by multi-source uncertainty and solve the contradiction between reliability assurance and economic operation in traditional fixed reserve methods.

[0092] Please refer to Figure 4 , Figure 4 A schematic diagram of a power system reserve requirement determination device provided by the present invention. The power system reserve requirement determination device includes:

[0093] Module 11 is used to obtain the historical available installed capacity of conventional generating units, historical output of new energy sources, historical power received by tie lines, historical power transmitted by tie lines, and historical load of the power system.

[0094] The first determining module 12 is used to determine the probabilistic quality function of the power system's generation margin based on the historical available installed capacity of conventional units, historical output of new energy sources, historical power received by tie lines, historical power transmitted by tie lines, and historical load.

[0095] The second determining module 13 is used to determine the explicit mapping relationship between the power supply reliability and reserve demand of the power system based on the probability quality function of the power generation margin, and to determine the target reserve demand of the power system according to the preset power supply reliability index and the explicit mapping relationship.

[0096] The backup demand determination device for a power system provided in this embodiment corresponds to the method described above, and therefore has the same beneficial effects as the method described above. Therefore, for the embodiment of the backup demand determination device for a power system, please refer to the description of the embodiment in the method section, which will not be repeated here.

[0097] As an optional embodiment, the second determining module 13 includes:

[0098] The first determining unit is used to determine the minimum value of the power generation margin based on the probability quality function of the power generation margin.

[0099] The judgment unit is used to determine whether the minimum power generation margin is not less than the preset power generation margin threshold.

[0100] The second determining unit is used to determine the range of reserve demand based on the difference between the preset generation margin threshold and the minimum generation margin when the minimum generation margin is less than the preset generation margin threshold. It also determines the first explicit mapping relationship between the power supply reliability index and the reserve requirements of the power system based on the probability quality function of the generation margin, and determines the target reserve demand of the power system based on the first explicit mapping relationship and the preset power supply reliability index, wherein the target reserve demand is within the range of reserve demand.

[0101] The third determining unit is used to determine the second explicit mapping relationship between the power supply reliability index and the power system's reserve requirements based on the probability quality function of the power supply margin when the minimum power generation margin is not less than the preset power generation margin threshold, and to determine the target reserve requirement of the power system based on the second explicit mapping relationship and the preset power supply reliability index, while satisfying the preset power supply reliability index.

[0102] As an optional embodiment, the second determining unit includes:

[0103] The first determining subunit is used to determine the backup requirements corresponding to the preset power supply reliability index in the first explicit mapping relationship;

[0104] The first target backup demand determination subunit is used to take the backup demand corresponding to the preset power supply reliability index as the target backup demand.

[0105] Correspondingly, the third determining unit includes:

[0106] The second determining subunit is used to determine the backup requirements corresponding to the preset power supply reliability index in the second explicit mapping relationship;

[0107] The second target backup demand determination subunit is used to determine the backup demand corresponding to the preset power supply reliability index as the target backup demand.

[0108] Please refer to Figure 5 , Figure 5 A schematic diagram of the structure of an electronic device provided by the present invention. The electronic device includes:

[0109] Memory 20 is used to store computer programs;

[0110] The processor 21 is used to execute computer programs to implement the steps of the power system backup demand determination method described above.

[0111] The electronic devices provided in this embodiment may include, but are not limited to, smartphones, tablets, laptops, or desktop computers.

[0112] The processor 21 may include one or more processing cores, such as a quad-core processor or an octa-core processor. The processor 21 may be implemented using at least one of the following hardware forms: Digital Signal Processor (DSP), Field-Programmable Gate Array (FPGA), or Programmable Logic Array (PLA). The processor 21 may also include a main processor and a coprocessor. The main processor, also known as the Central Processing Unit (CPU), is used to process data in the wake-up state; the coprocessor is a low-power processor used to process data in the standby state. In some embodiments, the processor 21 may integrate a Graphics Processing Unit (GPU), which is responsible for rendering and drawing the content to be displayed on the screen. In some embodiments, the processor 21 may also include an Artificial Intelligence (AI) processor, which is used to handle computational operations related to machine learning.

[0113] The memory 20 may include one or more computer-readable storage media, which may be non-transitory. The memory 20 may also include high-speed random access memory and non-volatile memory, such as one or more disk storage devices or flash memory devices. In this embodiment, the memory 20 is used to store at least the following computer program 201, which, after being loaded and executed by the processor 21, is capable of implementing the relevant steps of the power system reserve requirement determination method disclosed in any of the foregoing embodiments. In addition, the resources stored in the memory 20 may also include an operating system 202 and data 203, and the storage method may be temporary or permanent storage. The operating system 202 may include Windows, Unix, Linux, etc. The data 203 may include, but is not limited to, the power system reserve requirement determination method.

[0114] In some embodiments, the electronic device may further include a display screen 22, an input / output interface 23, a communication interface 24, a power supply 25, and a communication bus 26.

[0115] Those skilled in the art will understand that Figure 5 The structures shown do not constitute a limitation on electronic devices and may include more or fewer components than those shown.

[0116] The purpose of this embodiment is to provide an electronic device in which the memory 20 is used to store a computer program and the processor 21 is used to execute the computer program to implement the steps of the above-described method for determining the backup demand of a power system, making the determination process more efficient and accurate.

[0117] The present invention also provides an embodiment corresponding to a computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, it implements the steps of the above-described method for determining the backup demand of a power system.

[0118] It is understood that if the methods in the above embodiments are implemented as software functional units and sold or used as independent products, they can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium. Based on this understanding, the technical solution of the present invention, in essence, or the part that contributes to the prior art, or all or part of the technical solution, can be embodied in the form of a software product. This computer software product is stored in a storage medium and executes all or part of the steps of the methods in the various embodiments of the present invention. The aforementioned storage medium includes various media capable of storing program code, such as USB flash drives, portable hard drives, read-only memory (ROM), random access memory (RAM), magnetic disks, or optical disks.

[0119] The computer-readable storage medium provided in this embodiment corresponds to the method described above, and therefore has the same beneficial effects as the method described above. Therefore, for the embodiments of the computer-readable storage medium, please refer to the description of the embodiments in the method section, which will not be repeated here.

[0120] It should be noted that, in this specification, relational terms such as "first" and "second" are used only to distinguish one entity or operation from another, and do not necessarily require or imply any such actual relationship or order between these entities or operations. Furthermore, the terms "comprising," "including," or any other variations thereof are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises a list of elements includes not only those elements but also other elements not expressly listed, or elements inherent to such a process, method, article, or apparatus. Without further limitations, an element defined by the phrase "comprising one..." does not exclude the presence of other identical elements in the process, method, article, or apparatus that includes the element.

[0121] The above description of the disclosed embodiments enables those skilled in the art to make or use the invention. Various modifications to these embodiments will be readily apparent to those skilled in the art, and the general principles defined herein may be implemented in other embodiments without departing from the spirit or scope of the invention. Therefore, the invention is not to be limited to the embodiments shown herein, but is to be accorded the widest scope consistent with the principles and novel features disclosed herein.

Claims

1. A method for determining the reserve demand of a power system, characterized in that, include: Obtain historical available installed capacity of conventional generating units, historical output of new energy sources, historical power received by tie lines, historical power transmitted by tie lines, and historical load of the power system; The probability quality function for determining the generation margin of the power system is based on the historical available installed capacity of conventional generating units, the historical output of new energy sources, the historical power received by the tie line, the historical power transmitted by the tie line, and the historical load. The explicit mapping relationship between the power supply reliability and reserve demand of the power system is determined based on the probability quality function of the power generation margin, and the target reserve demand of the power system is determined according to the preset power supply reliability index and the explicit mapping relationship.

2. The method for determining the reserve demand of a power system as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The probabilistic quality function for determining the generation margin of the power system based on the historical available installed capacity of conventional generating units, the historical output of new energy sources, the historical power received by the tie line, the historical power transmitted by the tie line, and the historical load includes: The historical available installed capacity of conventional generating units, the historical output of new energy sources, the historical power received by the tie line, the historical power transmitted by the tie line, and the historical load are fitted to obtain the corresponding probability density functions of available installed capacity of conventional generating units, power output of new energy sources, power received by the tie line, power transmitted by the tie line, and load. Based on a preset discretization step size, the probability density functions of the available installed capacity of conventional generating units, the probability density functions of the output of new energy sources, the probability density functions of the power received by the tie line, the probability density functions of the power transmitted by the tie line, and the probability density functions of the load are discretized to obtain the corresponding discrete probability mass functions of the available installed capacity of conventional generating units, the discrete probability mass functions of the output of new energy sources, the discrete probability mass functions of the power received by the tie line, the discrete probability mass functions of the power transmitted by the tie line, and the discrete probability mass functions of the load. The probability quality function for determining the generation margin of the power system is based on the discrete probability quality function of the available installed capacity of conventional generating units, the discrete probability quality function of the output of new energy sources, the discrete probability quality function of the power received by the tie line, the discrete probability quality function of the power transmitted by the tie line, and the discrete probability quality function of the load.

3. The method for determining the reserve demand of a power system as described in claim 2, characterized in that, The probability quality function for determining the generation margin of the power system based on the discrete probability quality function of the available installed capacity of conventional generating units, the discrete probability quality function of the output of new energy sources, the discrete probability quality function of the power received by the tie line, the discrete probability quality function of the power transmitted by the tie line, and the discrete probability quality function of the load includes: The discrete probability quality function of the power system's generation margin is obtained by convolving the available installed capacity of the conventional generating units, the discrete probability quality function of the new energy output, the discrete probability quality function of the power received by the tie line, the discrete probability quality function of the power transmitted by the tie line, and the discrete probability quality function of the load using probability quality function convolution operation.

4. The method for determining the reserve demand of a power system as described in any one of claims 1 to 3, characterized in that, Determining the explicit mapping relationship between the power supply reliability and reserve demand of the power system based on the probabilistic quality function of the power generation margin includes: The minimum value of the power generation margin is determined based on the probability mass function of the power generation margin. Determine whether the minimum power generation margin is not less than a preset power generation margin threshold; If the minimum power generation margin is less than the preset power generation margin threshold, the reserve requirement range is determined based on the difference between the preset power generation margin threshold and the minimum power generation margin. A first explicit mapping relationship between the power supply reliability index and the reserve requirement of the power system is determined based on the probability quality function of the power generation margin. Based on the first explicit mapping relationship and the preset power supply reliability index, the target reserve requirement of the power system is determined on the basis of meeting the preset power supply reliability index. The target reserve requirement is within the reserve requirement range. If the minimum power generation margin is not less than the preset power generation margin threshold, then a second explicit mapping relationship between the power supply reliability index and the reserve requirement of the power system is determined according to the probability quality function of the power generation margin, and the target reserve requirement of the power system is determined based on the second explicit mapping relationship and the preset power supply reliability index, on the basis of satisfying the preset power supply reliability index.

5. The method for determining the reserve requirement of a power system as described in claim 4, characterized in that, Based on the first explicit mapping relationship and the preset power supply reliability index, the target reserve requirement of the power system is determined, including: In the first explicit mapping relationship, determine the backup requirements corresponding to the preset power supply reliability index; The backup demand corresponding to the preset power supply reliability index is taken as the target backup demand. Accordingly, based on the second explicit mapping relationship and the preset power supply reliability index, the target reserve requirement of the power system is determined on the basis of meeting the preset power supply reliability index, including: In the second explicit mapping relationship, the backup requirements corresponding to the preset power supply reliability index are determined; The backup demand corresponding to the preset power supply reliability index is taken as the target backup demand.

6. A device for determining the reserve demand of a power system, characterized in that, include: The acquisition module is used to acquire the historical available installed capacity of conventional generating units, historical output of new energy sources, historical power received by tie lines, historical power transmitted by tie lines, and historical load of the power system. The first determining module is used to determine the probabilistic quality function of the power system's generation margin based on the historical available installed capacity of conventional generating units, the historical output of new energy sources, the historical power received by the tie line, the historical power transmitted by the tie line, and the historical load. The second determining module is used to determine the explicit mapping relationship between the power supply reliability and reserve requirements of the power system based on the probability quality function of the power generation margin, and to determine the target reserve requirements of the power system according to the preset power supply reliability index and the explicit mapping relationship.

7. The power system reserve requirement determination device as described in claim 6, characterized in that, The second determining module includes: The first determining unit is used to determine the minimum value of the power generation margin based on the probability quality function of the power generation margin; The judgment unit is used to determine whether the minimum power generation margin is not less than a preset power generation margin threshold. The second determining unit is used to determine the reserve requirement range based on the difference between the preset power generation margin threshold and the minimum power generation margin when the minimum power generation margin is less than the preset power generation margin threshold; determine the first explicit mapping relationship between the power supply reliability index of the power system and the reserve requirement of the power system based on the probability quality function of the power generation margin; and determine the target reserve requirement of the power system based on the first explicit mapping relationship and the preset power supply reliability index, wherein the target reserve requirement is within the reserve requirement range. The third determining unit is used to determine a second explicit mapping relationship between the power supply reliability index and the reserve requirement of the power system based on the probability quality function of the power supply margin when the minimum power generation margin is not less than the preset power generation margin threshold, and to determine the target reserve requirement of the power system based on the second explicit mapping relationship and the preset power supply reliability index, on the basis of satisfying the preset power supply reliability index.

8. The power system reserve requirement determination device as described in claim 7, characterized in that, The second determining unit includes: The first determining subunit is used to determine the backup requirements corresponding to the preset power supply reliability index in the first explicit mapping relationship; The first target backup demand determination subunit is used to take the backup demand corresponding to the preset power supply reliability index as the target backup demand. Correspondingly, the third determining unit includes: The second determining subunit is used to determine the backup requirements corresponding to the preset power supply reliability index in the second explicit mapping relationship; The second target backup requirement determination subunit is used to take the backup requirement corresponding to the preset power supply reliability index as the target backup requirement.

9. An electronic device, characterized in that, include: Memory, used to store computer programs; A processor, configured to implement the steps of the method for determining the reserve requirements of a power system as described in any one of claims 1 to 5 when executing the computer program.

10. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that, The computer-readable storage medium stores a computer program that, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the method for determining the reserve requirements of a power system as described in any one of claims 1 to 5.

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