Comprehensive evaluation model and method for development and utilization of barrier dam

Abstract

The present application belongs to the field of water conservancy and disaster prevention and mitigation technology, and specifically discloses a comprehensive evaluation model and method for development and utilization of barrier dam, and constructs a multi-level index system including flood control and disaster mitigation, economic benefit, ecological benefit, social benefit, and safety and risk evaluation. The method adopts a multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation technology improved by a cloud model, determines the weight and calculates the membership degree through cloud model scaling, and finally outputs the comprehensive benefit score and development grade. The method solves the defects of strong fuzziness, randomness and subjectivity in traditional evaluation, and is suitable for the collaborative decision of barrier dam risk management and resource development. It can guide the development and utilization of barrier lake, and has important theoretical significance and practical value.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the fields of water conservancy and hydropower engineering and disaster prevention and mitigation technology, and in particular to a comprehensive evaluation model and method for the development and utilization of landslide dams, which is especially applicable to the comprehensive benefit assessment and decision support of the development and utilization of landslide dams. Background Technology

[0002] A landslide-dammed lake is a special type of natural earth and rock dam formed by natural disasters such as landslides, earthquakes, and mudslides blocking rivers. After emergency rescue and risk management, landslide dams with high comprehensive benefits can be reinforced and developed into water conservancy projects, transforming them into reservoirs and green power stations that enhance flood control and disaster reduction capabilities and drive local economic and social development, thus achieving the goal of "turning waste into treasure and reducing disasters while promoting benefits."

[0003] Currently, there are few examples of landslide-dammed lake development and utilization. Previous assessments of landslide-dammed lakes have primarily focused on the hazards of the dam and its potential consequences, with very little research on their development, utilization, and resource value evaluation. The feasibility and comprehensive benefits of landslide-dammed lake development and utilization have not been fully considered. Taking the Hongshiyan landslide-dammed dam as an example, before its development and utilization, the lack of a comprehensive evaluation system made it difficult to accurately assess its benefits and potential risks in flood control, water supply, power generation, and other aspects, thus creating difficulties for development decisions.

[0004] Existing methods for evaluating landslide dams have the following shortcomings:

[0005] (1) The evaluation index system is imperfect. Most studies only focus on one aspect, such as only assessing the risk of dam failure or only considering economic benefits. There is a lack of a comprehensive evaluation system from multiple dimensions such as flood control and disaster reduction, economic benefits, ecological benefits, social benefits and safety risks.

[0006] (2) The evaluation method is not good at handling uncertainty. Traditional evaluation methods often use expert experience or simple mathematical methods to determine weights and membership degrees, which makes it difficult to effectively handle the fuzziness, randomness and discreteness in the evaluation process.

[0007] (3) There is a lack of scientific group decision-making mechanism. Existing methods often use simple algebraic operations to gather opinions from multiple experts, which cannot fully reflect the uncertainty of expert evaluation.

[0008] Therefore, there is an urgent need for a comprehensive, scientific, and objective evaluation index system and method for the development and utilization of landslide dams, in order to guide the rational development and utilization of landslide dams. Summary of the Invention

[0009] The purpose of this invention is to overcome the shortcomings of existing technologies and provide a comprehensive evaluation model and method for the development and utilization of landslide dams. It constructs a scientific and complete evaluation index system, adopts a multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method improved by cloud model, effectively handles the uncertainty in the evaluation process, provides a scientific basis for the decision-making on the development and utilization of landslide dams, and thus solves the problems existing in the prior art.

[0010] To achieve the above objectives, the technical solution adopted by the present invention is as follows:

[0011] A comprehensive evaluation model for the development and utilization of landslide dams includes a three-layer evaluation system comprising an objective layer, a criterion layer, and an indicator factor layer.

[0012] The target layer is the comprehensive evaluation coefficient for the development and utilization of landslide dams;

[0013] The criteria layer includes flood control and disaster reduction (B1), economic benefits (B2), ecological benefits (B3), social benefits (B4), and safety and risk assessment (B5).

[0014] The indicator factor layer includes 19 specific evaluation indicators:

[0015] Flood control and disaster reduction B1 includes flood storage capacity C1, risk reduction capacity C2, and flood control capacity C3;

[0016] Economic benefits B2 include agricultural irrigation capacity C4, domestic water supply capacity C5, industrial water supply capacity C6, power generation capacity C7, and investment return requirements C8;

[0017] Ecological benefits B3 include soil and water conservation capacity (C9), landscape richness (C10), ecological restoration capacity (C11), and ecological water security (C12).

[0018] Social benefits B4 include residents' quality of life (C13), industrial driving index (C14), and cultural tourism development (C15);

[0019] Safety and risk assessment B5 includes structural safety level C16, dam failure risk coefficient C17, geological disaster risk C18, and monitoring and early warning capability C19.

[0020] Furthermore, each indicator in the indicator factor layer has a clear quantification method:

[0021] Flood control and disaster reduction indicators: Flood storage capacity C1 is quantified by the flood regulation and storage capacity of the landslide dam, reflecting the project's ability to control floods; Risk reduction capacity C2 is quantified by the landslide dam's ability to effectively reduce casualties and property losses, reflecting the safety performance of the landslide dam; Flood control capacity C3 is quantified by the project's flood control level, i.e., flood control standard or return period, reflecting the project's ability to resist floods.

[0022] Economic benefit indicators: Agricultural irrigation capacity C4 is quantified by controlling the irrigated area, using the ratio of increased irrigated area to existing irrigated area, reflecting the degree of water security for agricultural production; Domestic water supply capacity C5 is quantified by water supply volume and water supply population, using the ratio of expected water supply volume to expected water supply population divided by the ratio of current supply volume to current water supply population, reflecting the satisfaction of residential water needs; Industrial water supply capacity C6 is quantified by industrial water supply volume, using the ratio of dry season flow after dam construction to dry season flow before dam construction, reflecting the support capacity for industrial water use; Power generation capacity C7 is quantified by power generation per unit, using annual power generation, reflecting the power generation capacity of the landslide dam; Investment return requirement C8 is quantified by investment return rate, using the ratio of pre-tax annual profit to total investment, reflecting the effectiveness of investment returns.

[0023] Ecological benefit indicators: Soil and water conservation capacity (C9) is quantified by soil water holding capacity and surface runoff, and evaluated based on soil erosion intensity, reflecting the ability to conserve water resources; Landscape richness (C10) is quantified by the number of landscapes, using the increase or decrease in the number of landscapes plus the ratio of the increase or decrease in the area of ​​landscapes to the area of ​​the region, reflecting the degree of landscape richness; Ecological restoration capacity (C11) is quantified by the ratio of the area of ​​ecological restoration to the area of ​​damage, reflecting the self-repair capacity of the ecosystem; Ecological water security (C12) is quantified by the dry season flow, using the ratio of the dry season flow after dam construction to the dry season flow before dam construction, reflecting the amount of water required to maintain the operation of the ecosystem.

[0024] Social benefit indicators: Residents' quality of life C13 comprehensively considers water supply, energy supply, employment rate, etc., to measure residents' living standards; Industry driving index C14 is quantified by weighted scoring, the formula is: Industry development impact score × 0.4 + Employment opportunity increase score × 0.3 + Employment development score × 0.2 + Industry diversification score × 0.1, reflecting the level of driving industrial development; Cultural tourism development C15 is quantified by tourism resource development index, reflecting the level of tourism development.

[0025] Safety and risk assessment indicators: Structural safety level C16 is quantified through the structural safety rating of the dam body, reflecting the degree of safety of the dam body; Dam failure risk coefficient C17 is quantified through the product of historical dam failure probability and impact range, reflecting the degree of dam failure risk; Geological disaster risk C18 comprehensively measures the potential geological disaster hazards in the landslide dam area, including landslides, collapses, debris flows, etc., reflecting whether the occurrence of geological disasters can be controlled; Monitoring and early warning capability C19 comprehensively evaluates the configuration of monitoring equipment and the soundness of the early warning system, reflecting the ability to provide early warning and disaster prevention.

[0026] A comprehensive evaluation method for the development and utilization of landslide dams includes the following steps:

[0027] Step 1: Construct a comprehensive evaluation index system for the development and utilization of landslide dams.

[0028] A three-tiered evaluation system is established, comprising a target layer, a criterion layer, and an indicator factor layer, based on five dimensions: flood control and disaster reduction, economic benefits, ecological benefits, social benefits, and safety and risk assessment. It includes 19 specific evaluation indicators.

[0029] Step 2: Construct a collection of comments

[0030] Let the benefit level rating set K = {K1 High benefit, K2 Relatively high benefit, K3 Low benefit, K4 Low benefit} be defined. The cloud model feature parameters corresponding to each benefit level are as follows:

[0031] Low efficiency (0-25 points): Cloud model (0, 8.33, 0.02)

[0032] Low efficiency (25-50 points): Cloud model (37.5, 4.17, 0.02)

[0033] High efficiency (50-75 points): Cloud model (62.5, 4.17, 0.02)

[0034] High efficiency (75-100 points): Cloud model (100, 8.33, 0.02)

[0035] Step 3: Calculate the weights of each evaluation factor using the judgment matrix of the cloud model scaling.

[0036] (1) Construct a pairwise comparison judgment matrix for evaluation factors based on cloud model scaling. The cloud model scaling criteria are as follows:

[0037] Ci is absolutely more important than Cj: Scale cloud model (9, 0.33, 0.05)

[0038] Ci is significantly more important than Cj: Scale value cloud model (7, 0.33, 0.05)

[0039] Ci is significantly more important than Cj: Scale value cloud model (5, 0.33, 0.05)

[0040] Ci is slightly more important than Cj: Scale value cloud model (3, 0.33, 0.05)

[0041] Ci is equally important as Cj: Scale value cloud model (1, 0, 0)

[0042] Ci is slightly less important than Cj: Scale cloud model (1 / 3, 0.33 / 9, 0.05 / 9)

[0043] Ci is significantly less important than Cj: Scale cloud model (1 / 5, 0.33 / 25, 0.05 / 25)

[0044] Ci is significantly less important than Cj: Scale cloud model (1 / 7, 0.33 / 49, 0.05 / 49)

[0045] Ci is definitely less important than Cj: Scale cloud model (1 / 9, 0.33 / 81, 0.05 / 81)

[0046] (2) Invite multiple experts in the field to conduct pairwise comparisons of the evaluation factors and use the cloud model scaling criterion to give the judgment matrix.

[0047] (3) Calculate the elements of each row in the judgment matrix to obtain the weight cloud model W of each evaluation factor. i (E xi E ni H ei The calculation formula is as follows:

[0048] Weighted cloud expected value:

[0049]

[0050] Weighted Cloud Entropy:

[0051]

[0052] Weighted Cloud Hyperentropy:

[0053]

[0054] In the formula: i = 1~19 is the i-th evaluation index; j = 1~m is the score of the j-th expert; E xij E nij H eij Let $\mathbf{j}$ be the expected value, entropy, and hyperentropy of the j-th expert's evaluation of the i-th indicator, respectively.

[0055] Step 4: Calculate the membership degree of each evaluation factor based on the improved multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model using the cloud model.

[0056] (1) Establish a membership degree cloud model. Unlike the traditional empirical formula method for determining membership degree, this model treats the membership degree of each evaluation factor corresponding to the benefit level as a cloud model, and uses the expected value E... xj Entropy E nj and hyperentropy H ej The three numerical features represent the membership degree relationship between the evaluation factors and the benefit level, realizing a one-to-many mapping between qualitative and quantitative methods.

[0057] (2) Invite multiple experts in the field to score each evaluation indicator, with a scoring range of 0-100 points.

[0058] (3) Calculate the membership cloud model parameters for each evaluation index:

[0059] Cloud model expected value:

[0060]

[0061] Cloud model entropy:

[0062]

[0063] Cloud model hyperentropy:

[0064]

[0065] In the formula: j=1~19 represents 19 evaluation indicators; m represents the number of experts; B i Let S be the score given by the i-th expert for a certain evaluation indicator; S² is the sample variance, calculated using the formula: .

[0066] (4) Based on the normal cloud generator, calculate the membership degree of each evaluation factor to each benefit level and form a fuzzy relation matrix R.

[0067] Step 5: Obtain the comprehensive evaluation result of the development and utilization of the landslide dam through weighted average calculation.

[0068] (1) The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation algorithm S = W × R is used for hierarchical fuzzy comprehensive evaluation:

[0069] First, a first-level comprehensive evaluation is performed on the indicator factor layer to obtain the evaluation results of each indicator in the criterion layer.

[0070] Then, a two-level comprehensive evaluation is performed on the criterion layer to obtain the comprehensive evaluation result matrix S of the target layer.

[0071] (2) The weighted average of the benefit evaluation factor weight cloud model and the membership degree cloud model is calculated to obtain the comprehensive evaluation result of the cloud model improvement. The comprehensive evaluation result is described by the expected value Ex, entropy En and hyperentropy He of the cloud model.

[0072] (3) Determine the benefit level of the landslide dam development and utilization based on the principle of maximum membership. The benefit level corresponding to the element with the highest membership is the final result of the comprehensive evaluation of the landslide dam development and utilization.

[0073] The beneficial effects of this invention are:

[0074] (1) A scientific and complete comprehensive evaluation index system for the development and utilization of landslide dams was constructed. From five dimensions, namely flood control and disaster reduction, economic benefits, ecological benefits, social benefits and safety and risk assessment, a three-level evaluation system containing 19 specific indicators was established to comprehensively reflect the comprehensive benefits of the development and utilization of landslide dams and make up for the shortcomings of the existing evaluation method index system.

[0075] (2) The weights are calculated by using cloud model scaling to improve the analytic hierarchy process. By combining the three numerical characteristics of cloud model expectation, entropy and hyperentropy, fuzziness, randomness and discreteness are organically combined, which overcomes the defects of traditional analytic hierarchy process where the scale is a fixed value and cannot accurately reflect the fuzziness and randomness of decision-makers’ subjective preference relationship and comparison.

[0076] (3) The membership calculation method is improved by adopting the cloud model. The membership degree of the evaluation factor to the benefit level is represented by the cloud model. The cloud model parameters are calculated by statistical analysis, avoiding the uncertainty caused by the traditional method of determining the membership degree by subjective value or empirical formula.

[0077] (4) By adopting a group decision-making approach and inviting multiple experts to conduct evaluations, the opinions of each expert are aggregated using a cloud model, which effectively avoids the influence of personal experience and subjective factors on the evaluation results and improves the objectivity and reliability of the evaluation results.

[0078] (5) The method of this invention is scientific and practical, providing a scientific basis for decision-making on the development and utilization of landslide dams. It can guide the development and utilization of landslide lakes that "turn waste into treasure and reduce disasters and promote benefits", and has important theoretical significance and practical value. Attached Figure Description

[0079] Figure 1 This is a flowchart of the comprehensive evaluation process for the development and utilization of landslide dams in this invention. Detailed Implementation

[0080] To make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of this invention clearer, the invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative and not intended to limit the invention.

[0081] This embodiment takes the Hongshiyan landslide dam in a certain area as the research object, and uses the comprehensive evaluation model and method for the development and utilization of the landslide dam provided by the present invention to evaluate its comprehensive benefits of development and utilization.

[0082] Step 1: Construct a comprehensive evaluation index system

[0083] Based on the actual situation of the Hongshiyan landslide dam, a comprehensive evaluation index system was constructed from five aspects: flood control and disaster reduction, economic benefits, ecological benefits, social benefits, and safety and risk assessment. The specific index descriptions and scoring standards are shown in Table 1.

[0084] Table 1. Comprehensive Evaluation Index System for the Development and Utilization of the Hongshiyan Landslide Dam

[0085]

[0086] Step 2: Construct a collection of comments

[0087] A set of benefit level evaluation criteria K = {K1 high benefit, K2 relatively high benefit, K3 low benefit, K4 low benefit} is set, and the cloud model feature parameters corresponding to each benefit level are shown in Table 2.

[0088] Table 2. Evaluation Comments for the Target Layer of the Comprehensive Evaluation of the Development and Utilization of Landslide Dams

[0089]

[0090] Step 3: Calculate the weight of each evaluation factor

[0091] (1) Ten experts in the fields of water conservancy and hydropower, disaster prevention and mitigation, and ecological environment were invited to conduct pairwise comparisons of the evaluation factors using the cloud model scaling criteria (Table 3) to construct a judgment matrix.

[0092] Table 3. Scale Criteria for the Cloud Model of Comprehensive Evaluation of the Development and Utilization of Landslide Dams

[0093]

[0094] (2) Calculate the judgment matrix to obtain the weight cloud model of each evaluation factor. Taking the criterion layer as an example, the weight cloud model of each criterion is calculated as follows:

[0095] Flood control and disaster reduction B1: W1 (0.28, 0.025, 0.003)

[0096] Economic benefits B2: W2 (0.25, 0.023, 0.003)

[0097] Ecological benefits B3: W3 (0.18, 0.020, 0.002)

[0098] Social benefits B4: W4 (0.15, 0.018, 0.002)

[0099] Safety and Risk Assessment B5: W5 (0.14, 0.017, 0.002)

[0100] Step 4: Calculate the membership degree of each evaluation factor.

[0101] (1) Ten experts were invited to score the various evaluation indicators of the Hongshiyan landslide dam, with a scoring range of 0-100 points.

[0102] (2) Taking flood storage capacity C1 as an example, the scores given by the 10 experts were: 85, 88, 82, 90, 86, 84, 87, 89, 83, 86.

[0103] (3) Calculate the membership cloud model parameters of the flood storage capacity C1:

[0104] Expected value: Ex1 = (85+88+82+90+86+84+87+89+83+86) / 10 = 86 points

[0105] En1 = √(π / 2) × (|85-86|+|88-86|+|82-86|+|90-86|+|86-86|+|84-86|+|87-86|+|89-86|+|83-86|+|86-86|) / 10 = √(π / 2) × 2.2 = 2.76

[0106] Sample variance: S² = [(85-86)²+(88-86)²+(82-86)²+(90-86)²+(86-86)²+(84-86)²+(87-86)²+(89-86)²+(83-86)²+(86-86)²] / 9 = 7.11

[0107] Hyperentropy: He1 = √(7.11 - 2.76²) = √(7.11 - 7.62) ≈ 0.5 (absolute value)

[0108] (4) Using a normal cloud generator, calculate the membership degree of the flood storage capacity C1 to each benefit level:

[0109] Membership degree for low-efficiency members: 0.05

[0110] Membership degree for lower efficiency: 0.08

[0111] Membership degree with higher efficiency: 0.25

[0112] Membership degree for high-efficiency members: 0.62

[0113] (5) Similarly, calculate the membership degree of the other 18 evaluation indicators to each benefit level to form a fuzzy relation matrix R.

[0114] Step 5: Conduct a comprehensive evaluation

[0115] (1) A hierarchical evaluation is performed using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation synthesis algorithm S = W × R:

[0116] First, a first-level comprehensive evaluation is performed on the indicator factor layer to obtain the evaluation results of each indicator in the criterion layer.

[0117] Evaluation results for flood control and disaster reduction B1: S1 = (0.06, 0.09, 0.28, 0.57)

[0118] The evaluation results of economic benefit B2 are: S2 = (0.08, 0.12, 0.35, 0.45)

[0119] Evaluation results of ecological benefit B3: S3 = (0.10, 0.15, 0.38, 0.37)

[0120] Evaluation results of social benefit B4: S4 = (0.12, 0.18, 0.32, 0.38)

[0121] Safety and Risk Assessment B5 Evaluation Results: S5 = (0.09, 0.14, 0.30, 0.47)

[0122] (2) A two-level comprehensive evaluation of the criteria layer is conducted to obtain the comprehensive evaluation results of the target layer:

[0123] S=W (0.12, 0.18, 0.32, 0.38); (0.09, 0.14, 0.30, 0.47)]

[0124] The comprehensive evaluation results of the target layer are calculated as follows:

[0125] S = (0.084, 0.126, 0.318, 0.472)

[0126] (3) According to the principle of maximum membership, the maximum membership of the Hongshiyan landslide dam development and utilization comprehensive evaluation is 0.472, corresponding to the benefit level of "high benefit" (K1), indicating that the Hongshiyan landslide dam has high development and utilization value.

[0127] (4) Further calculate the expectation, entropy, and hyperentropy of the comprehensive evaluation results using the cloud model:

[0128] Overall evaluation of the cloud model's expected value: Ex = 0×0.084 + 37.5×0.126 + 62.5×0.318 + 100×0.472 = 71.8 points

[0129] Overall evaluation of cloud model entropy: En = 4.2

[0130] Overall evaluation of cloud model hyperentropy: He = 0.02

[0131] The results indicate that the comprehensive evaluation score for the development and utilization of the Hongshiyan landslide dam is 71.8 points, which falls between "relatively high benefits" and "high benefits," indicating that it has good development and utilization value.

[0132] Evaluation Result Analysis:

[0133] A comprehensive evaluation of the Hongshiyan landslide dam was conducted using the method of this invention, and the results show that:

[0134] (1) In terms of flood control and disaster reduction, the Hongshiyan landslide dam has a strong flood storage capacity and risk reduction capacity. The evaluation result is "high benefit", indicating that the landslide dam can effectively improve the regional flood control and disaster reduction capacity after reinforcement.

[0135] (2) In terms of economic benefits, the landslide dam can provide multiple functions such as agricultural irrigation, domestic water supply, industrial water supply and power generation for the surrounding areas. The evaluation result is "highly effective" and it has good economic development value.

[0136] (3) In terms of ecological benefits, the construction of landslide dams can improve the region's soil and water conservation capacity and increase the ecological landscape. The evaluation result is "highly beneficial" and it has a positive effect on the ecological environment.

[0137] (4) In terms of social benefits, the project can improve the quality of life of residents, drive the development of local industries, and promote the development of cultural tourism. The evaluation result is "highly beneficial".

[0138] (5) In terms of safety and risk, through reinforcement and improvement of the monitoring and early warning system, the structural safety level of the landslide dam is relatively high, and the risk of dam failure and geological disaster is controllable. The evaluation result is "high benefit".

[0139] Based on the evaluation results of the above five aspects, the overall evaluation of the development and utilization of the Hongshiyan landslide dam is "highly beneficial", with a comprehensive score of 71.8 points. This indicates that the landslide dam has high development and utilization value, and it is recommended to develop and utilize it to achieve the goal of "turning waste into treasure and reducing disasters and promoting benefits".

[0140] This embodiment fully verifies the scientific nature and practicality of the method of the present invention. The method can comprehensively and objectively evaluate the overall benefits of the development and utilization of landslide dams, and provide a scientific basis for decision-making on the development and utilization of landslide dams.

[0141] The advantages of the cloud model improvement method of this invention compared with traditional methods are as follows:

[0142] (1) In the traditional analytic hierarchy process, the scales used for pairwise comparisons by experts are precise numerical values ​​(such as 1, 3, 5, 7, 9), which cannot reflect the fuzziness and randomness in the comparison process. This invention uses a cloud model scale, where each scale value is represented by three parameters: expectation, entropy, and hyperentropy, which can fully reflect the uncertainty of expert judgment.

[0143] (2) Traditional fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methods usually use empirical formulas or subjective assignments to determine membership degrees, which are highly subjective. This invention uses a cloud model to represent membership degrees and calculates cloud model parameters through statistical analysis, organically integrating the fuzziness and randomness of expert scoring, thereby improving the objectivity of membership degree determination.

[0144] (3) Traditional methods use a simple arithmetic average to aggregate opinions from multiple experts, ignoring the uncertainty of each expert's evaluation. This invention uses a cloud model to aggregate opinions from multiple experts. By calculating the expectation, entropy, and hyperentropy of the cloud model, it can fully consider the uncertainty of each expert's evaluation and improve the scientific nature of group decision-making.

[0145] Application scope:

[0146] The method of this invention is not only applicable to the evaluation of the development and utilization of landslide dams, but can also be extended to the comprehensive benefit evaluation of other similar projects, such as:

[0147] (1) Comprehensive benefit evaluation of reservoir dams;

[0148] (2) Feasibility evaluation of water conservancy hub projects;

[0149] (3) Comprehensive benefit evaluation of flood control projects;

[0150] (4) Evaluation of the effectiveness of ecological restoration projects;

[0151] (5) Comprehensive evaluation of other complex systems involving multiple objectives and multiple criteria.

[0152] It should be noted that the scoring criteria for each indicator in this invention can be adjusted according to the actual situation of the specific project, and the weight of the evaluation factors can also be appropriately adjusted according to different regions and different types of landslide dams to adapt to different evaluation needs.

[0153] The cloud model parameter calculation method in this invention is based on the normal cloud model theory. It can also be improved by using other types of cloud models (such as semi-cloud models, combined cloud models, etc.) to adapt to different evaluation scenarios.

[0154] The recommended number of experts in this invention is 7-15. This ensures representativeness in group decision-making while avoiding computational complexity caused by too many experts. The experts should cover multiple fields, including water conservancy and hydropower, disaster prevention and mitigation, ecological environment, and economic management, to ensure the comprehensiveness and scientific rigor of the evaluation.

[0155] The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention. It should be noted that for those skilled in the art, several improvements and modifications can be made without departing from the principle of the present invention, and these improvements and modifications should also be considered within the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A comprehensive evaluation model for the development and utilization of landslide dams, characterized in that, A three-tiered evaluation system comprising target layer, criterion layer, and indicator factor layer: The target layer is the comprehensive evaluation coefficient for the development and utilization of landslide dams; The criteria layer includes flood control and disaster reduction (B1), economic benefits (B2), ecological benefits (B3), social benefits (B4), and safety and risk assessment (B5). The indicator factor layer includes: Flood control and disaster reduction under B1 include flood storage capacity C1, risk reduction capacity C2, and flood control capacity C3; Economic benefits B2 include agricultural irrigation capacity C4, domestic water supply capacity C5, industrial water supply capacity C6, power generation capacity C7, and investment return requirements C8. Ecological benefits B3 include soil and water conservation capacity (C9), landscape richness (C10), ecological restoration capacity (C11), and ecological water security (C12). Social benefits B4 include residents' quality of life (C13), industrial driving index (C14), and cultural tourism development (C15). Safety and risk assessment B5 includes structural safety level C16, dam failure risk coefficient C17, geological disaster risk C18, and monitoring and early warning capability C19. In the index factor layer, the quantitative formula for the industry driving index C14 is: industrial development impact score × 0.4 + employment opportunity increase score × 0.3 + emerging industry development score × 0.2 + industrial diversification score × 0.1; industrial water supply capacity C6 and ecological water security C12 are both quantified by the ratio of the dry season flow after dam construction to the dry season flow before dam construction. In the evaluation model's accompanying comment set, the cloud model characteristic parameters corresponding to each benefit level are as follows: low benefit corresponds to cloud model (0, 8.33, 0.02); relatively low benefit corresponds to cloud model (37.5, 4.17, 0.02); relatively high benefit corresponds to cloud model (62.5, 4.17, 0.02); and high benefit corresponds to cloud model (100, 8.33, 0.02). Among these, the benefit level division intervals are: low benefit corresponds to 0–25 points, relatively low benefit corresponds to 25–50 points, relatively high benefit corresponds to 50–75 points, and high benefit corresponds to 75–100 points.

2. The comprehensive evaluation model for the development and utilization of landslide dams according to claim 1, characterized in that, The quantification method for each indicator in the indicator factor layer is as follows: Flood regulation capacity C1 is quantified by the ability of landslide dams to regulate and store floodwaters; risk reduction capacity C2 is quantified by the ability to reduce casualties and property losses; flood control capacity C3 is quantified by the flood control level of engineering projects. Agricultural irrigation capacity C4 is quantified by controlling the irrigated area; The domestic water supply capacity C5 is quantified by the water supply volume and the population served. Industrial water supply capacity C6 is quantified by industrial water supply volume; power generation capacity C7 is quantified by power generation per unit; investment return requirement C8 is quantified by return on investment rate. Soil and water conservation capacity (C9) is quantified by soil water holding capacity and surface runoff; landscape richness (C10) is quantified by the number of landscapes; ecological restoration capacity (C11) is quantified by the ratio of ecological restoration area to damaged area; and ecological water security (C12) is quantified by the dry season flow. Residents' quality of life (C13) is quantified by a comprehensive assessment of water supply, energy supply, and employment rate; the industry-driving index (C14) is quantified by a weighted scoring calculation; and cultural tourism development (C15) is quantified by a tourism resource development index. The structural safety level C16 is quantified through the dam structure safety rating; the dam failure risk coefficient C17 is quantified through the product of historical dam failure probability and impact range; the geological disaster risk C18 is quantified through the geological disaster hazards in the region; and the monitoring and early warning capability C19 is quantified through the configuration of monitoring equipment and the improvement of the early warning system.

3. A comprehensive evaluation method for the development and utilization of landslide dams, characterized in that, Includes the following steps: Step 1: Construct a comprehensive evaluation index system for the development and utilization of landslide dams as described in claim 1 or 2; Step 2: Construct a set of evaluation criteria, setting the benefit levels as K = {K1 High benefit, K2 Relatively high benefit, K3 Relatively low benefit, K4 Low benefit}; the cloud model feature parameters corresponding to each benefit level are: Low benefit corresponds to cloud model (0, 8.33, 0.02); Relatively low benefit corresponds to cloud model (37.5, 4.17, 0.02); Relatively high benefit corresponds to cloud model (62.5, 4.17, 0.02); High benefit corresponds to cloud model (100, 8.33, 0.02). Step 3: Calculate the weights of each evaluation factor using the judgment matrix of the cloud model scaling. The cloud model scaling criteria are as follows: when Ci is absolutely more important than Cj, the scaling cloud model is (9, 0.33, 0.05); when Ci is strongly more important than Cj, the scaling cloud model is (7, 0.33, 0.05); when Ci is significantly more important than Cj, the scaling cloud model is (5, 0.33, 0.05); when Ci is slightly more important than Cj, the scaling cloud model is (3, 0.33, 0.05); when Ci and Cj are equally important, the scaling cloud model is (1, 0, 0). Step 4: Based on the improved multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model using the cloud model, calculate the membership degree of each evaluation factor. The calculation method for the membership degree cloud model parameters is as follows: invite multiple experts to score each evaluation indicator from 0 to 100 points, and calculate the membership degree cloud model parameters of each evaluation factor according to the following formula based on the expert scoring data: Cloud model expected value E xj The calculation formula is: , Cloud model entropy E nj The calculation formula is: , Cloud Model Hyperentropy H ej The calculation formula is: , Where S² is the sample variance; the above method determines the membership degree by statistically calculating the scores of the expert group, rather than by using empirical formulas or subjective assignments. Step 5: Obtain the comprehensive evaluation result of the development and utilization of the landslide dam by weighted average calculation S=W×R; specifically: firstly, conduct a first-level comprehensive evaluation of the indicator factor layer to obtain the evaluation results of each indicator in the criterion layer, and then conduct a second-level comprehensive evaluation of the criterion layer to obtain the comprehensive evaluation result matrix S of the target layer; The benefit level is determined based on the principle of maximum membership.

4. The comprehensive evaluation method for the development and utilization of landslide dams according to claim 3, characterized in that, The specific steps for calculating the weights using the judgment matrix of the cloud model scaling in step 3 are as follows: Construct pairwise comparison judgment matrices for evaluation factors based on cloud model scaling; calculate the cloud model weights W for each evaluation factor by calculating the elements in each row of the judgment matrix. i (E xi E ni H ei ); Where the expected value of the weighted cloud is E xi The calculation formula is: ， Weighted Cloud Entropy E ni The calculation formula is: ， Weighted Cloud Super Entropy H ei The calculation formula is: ， In the formula: i=1m represents the score of the j-th expert; E xij E nij H eij Let $\mathbf{j}$ be the expected value, entropy, and hyperentropy of the j-th expert's evaluation of the i-th indicator, respectively.

5. The comprehensive evaluation method for the development and utilization of landslide dams according to claim 3, characterized in that, The cloud model combines fuzziness, randomness, and discreteness through three numerical features: expectation Ex, entropy En, and hyperentropy He, to achieve the conversion between uncertain language and quantitative numerical values.

6. The comprehensive evaluation method for the development and utilization of landslide dams according to claim 3, characterized in that, The comprehensive evaluation results in step 5 are described by the expected value Ex, entropy En, and super-entropy He of the cloud model, and the benefit level is determined according to the principle of maximum membership.

7. The comprehensive evaluation method for the development and utilization of landslide dams according to claim 3, characterized in that, The method determines the evaluation factor judgment matrix through group decision-making, uses multiple experts to score and utilizes a cloud model to aggregate the opinions of each expert, thus avoiding the influence of personal experience and subjective factors on the evaluation results.

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