Inlet oil supply priority evaluation method

Abstract

The invention discloses an imported oil product supply priority evaluation method. The method comprises the following steps: S10, constructing an imported oil product supply priority evaluation index system; the index system comprises a target layer, a criterion layer and an index layer; s20, performing score quantization on each index in each index layer; s30, determining the weight of each factor of the criterion layer and the weight of each index of the index layer; s40, calculating comprehensive scores of the to-be-evaluated oil product in each factor of the criterion layer according to scores obtained in score quantification of each index of the to-be-evaluated oil product and weights corresponding to each index, and adding the comprehensive scores of each factor to obtain a supply priority score of the to-be-evaluated oil product; and S50, determining the supply priority level of the to-be-evaluated oil product based on the supply priority score of the evaluated oil product.

Description

TECHNICAL FIELD

[0001] The application relates to an import oil product supply priority evaluation method. BACKGROUND

[0002] In the case of partial dependence on imported oil, in order to ensure the long-term reliable operation of equipment, the supply priority of imported oil needs to be evaluated to improve the support efficiency. At present, the risk evaluation of imported oil mainly focuses on the dependence degree, safety and other market and supply chain elements in the procurement process, and lacks systematic consideration of the characteristics of oil equipment and the technical performance of oil products. Such single-dimensional evaluation method is easy to cause the problem of lagging support and low support efficiency, and it is difficult to realize scientific and dynamic support decision-making in a complex and changeable supply environment.

[0003] Therefore, an import oil product supply priority evaluation method that can comprehensively consider the supply risk, equipment use characteristics and oil product technical characteristics is urgently needed to realize accurate quantification and dynamic response of the support risk of imported oil products. SUMMARY

[0004] In view of the above technical problems existing in the prior art, the embodiments of the application provide an import oil product supply priority evaluation method.

[0005] To solve the above technical problems, the technical scheme adopted by the embodiments of the application is as follows:

[0006] An import oil product supply priority evaluation method comprises the following steps:

[0007] S10: constructing an import oil product supply priority evaluation index system; the index system comprises a target layer, a criterion layer and an index layer;

[0008] S20: performing score quantification on each index in each index layer;

[0009] S30: determining the weights of each factor of the criterion layer and each index of the index layer;

[0010] S40: calculating the comprehensive scores of each factor of the criterion layer of the oil product to be evaluated according to the scores obtained in the score quantification of each index and the weights corresponding to each index, and adding the comprehensive scores of each factor to obtain the supply priority score of the evaluated oil product;

[0011] S50: determining the supply priority grade of the oil product to be evaluated based on the supply priority score of the evaluated oil product.

[0012] Preferably, the criterion layer comprises a supply risk factor, an oil equipment factor and an oil product technical factor;

[0013] Each indicator layer includes at least three indicators belonging to supply risk factors, at least two indicators belonging to oil-using equipment factors, and at least two indicators belonging to oil product technology factors.

[0014] Preferably, the indicators belonging to supply risk factors include at least:

[0015] The supply index represents the ratio of existing oil reserves to average annual imports.

[0016] Foreign dependence ratio represents the ratio of oil imports to oil consumption.

[0017] The procurement cycle refers to the time from submitting a request for oil to the delivery of the oil to the requester.

[0018] Preferably, the indicators belonging to the oil-using equipment factors include:

[0019] Equipment quantity, representing the logarithm of the number of equipment using the oil being evaluated;

[0020] Maintenance cycle refers to the reciprocal of the equipment maintenance cycle.

[0021] Preferably, the indicators belonging to the technical factors of oil products include:

[0022] The degree of generalization is the ratio of the number of equipment categories to which the oil being evaluated is applicable to to the minimum number of categories.

[0023] The warranty period is the ratio of the minimum recommended warranty period among all imported oil products to the warranty period of the oil product to be evaluated.

[0024] Preferably, in step S30, the weights are determined using the G1 order relation analysis method, specifically including:

[0025] S31: Assess the importance of each factor in the criteria layer and each indicator in the indicator layer;

[0026] S32: Based on the average score, rank each factor and indicator from highest to lowest importance to determine the order relationship;

[0027] S33: Based on the order relationship, calculate the importance ratio r between adjacent factors and between adjacent indicators. k ;

[0028] S34: Based on the importance ratio r k This allows us to obtain the weights of each factor in the criteria layer and the weights of each indicator in its respective indicator layer.

[0029] Preferably, in step S20, quantifying the scores of each indicator in each indicator layer includes:

[0030] Set several grade intervals for each index, and assign a basic score to each grade interval, and calculate an adjustment score in the grade interval by linear interpolation method, and the quantified score is the sum of the basic score and the adjustment score.

[0031] Preferably, further comprising:

[0032] Obtaining an energy security coefficient based on the strategic reserve rate and the external dependence degree;

[0033] Using the energy security coefficient to correct the divided score interval.

[0034] Preferably, further comprising:

[0035] Obtaining an international crude oil price fluctuation rate;

[0036] Using the price fluctuation rate to correct the supply index.

[0037] Preferably, further comprising an interruption scenario simulation evaluation mode, in which the following steps are performed:

[0038] In response to an interruption scenario triggering instruction, identifying the affected supply chain link;

[0039] Forcibly adjusting the index values related to the affected link: adjusting the procurement cycle to the historical maximum value, and setting the political stability index value corresponding to the import origin stability to the minimum;

[0040] Based on the adjusted index values, re-executing steps S20 to S50 to obtain the supply priority level of the oil product to be evaluated under the interruption scenario.

[0041] Compared with the prior art, the import oil product supply priority evaluation method disclosed by the present application has the beneficial effects that:

[0042] 1. The present application realizes comprehensive and multi-dimensional risk assessment of imported oil products, and solves the problems of lagging protection and extensive decision-making. The present application systematically constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system (a total of 8 quantifiable indexes) covering three dimensions of supply risk, oil equipment, and oil technology, and key use end elements such as equipment quantity, maintenance cycle, generalization degree, and warranty period are included in the quantitative evaluation. This makes the evaluation result more in line with the actual scene of equipment support, and can accurately identify potential risks caused by strong equipment dependence or high oil product specificity, thereby guiding the differentiated and refined allocation of resources, and fundamentally avoiding "insufficient protection" or "resource waste" caused by one-sided evaluation.

[0043] 2. The present application introduces a dynamic adjustment mechanism (dynamic threshold adjustment based on energy security coefficient (ESC) and introduction of price fluctuation rate (ΔP) to correct the supply index), thereby improving the response sensitivity and forward-looking of the evaluation system to complex external environment.

[0044] 3. The present application provides multi-scenario simulation evaluation function, especially for extreme risk deduction of supply chain interruption, filling the blank of emergency evaluation.

[0045] 4. The present application forms a set of scientific, sensitive and operable import oil supply priority evaluation tool by constructing a comprehensive index system, embedding a dynamic correction mechanism and simulating extreme risk scenarios. It effectively overcomes the one-sidedness, lag and static defects of traditional methods, and can significantly improve the risk prediction ability, resource allocation efficiency and emergency response level of the equipment support system in the complex and changing international supply environment.

[0046] It should be understood that the foregoing general description and the following detailed description are only exemplary and illustrative, but not for limiting the present application.

[0047] The summary of various implementations or examples of the technology described in the present application is not a comprehensive disclosure of the entire scope or all features of the disclosed technology. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF DRAWINGS

[0048] Figure 1 Flowchart of the import oil supply priority evaluation method provided by the embodiment of the present application.

[0049] Figure 2 Flowchart of step 30 of the import oil supply priority evaluation method provided by the embodiment of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0050] The present application provides an import oil supply priority evaluation method, comprising the following steps:

[0051] S10: Constructing an import oil supply priority evaluation index system; the index system includes a target layer, a criterion layer and an index layer.

[0052] Specifically, the constructed index system is shown in Table 1.

[0053] Table 1: Import oil supply priority evaluation index system

[0054]

[0055] The following introduces each factor and each index in each factor.

[0056] 1. Supply risk factor (SR1)

[0057] The supply risk factor is influenced by the current stage of storage, consumption and procurement of oil products, and therefore, the supply risk factor includes supply indicators (C1), external dependence (C2), procurement cycle (C3) and import origin stability (C4). Each indicator is defined as follows.

[0058] 1.1 Supply index (C1)

[0059] The supply index (C1) is the ratio of the existing reserves (S i ) to the average annual import amount (A i ). The greater the value, the smaller the supply capacity of imported oil products, and the greater the risk of continuous supply.

[0060]

[0061] 1.2 External dependence (C2)

[0062] The external dependence (C2) is the ratio of the average annual consumption amount (CON i ) to the average annual import amount (A i ). It reflects the degree of dependence on imported oil products. The greater the value, the greater the consumption capacity of imported oil products, and the higher the supply priority.

[0063]

[0064] 1.3 Procurement cycle (C3)

[0065] The procurement cycle (PC) i is the time from the submission of oil demand to the delivery of oil products to the demand side. The longer the procurement cycle, the greater the procurement risk and the higher the supply priority. The procurement cycle data is dimensionless processed according to statistics, as shown in Equation 3. In the equation, (PC) max is the maximum value of all statistical data, and the greater the value of C3, the shorter the oil procurement cycle and the lower the procurement priority.

[0066]

[0067] 1.4 Import origin stability (C4)

[0068] The index mainly reflects the political stability of the oil import origin. According to the definition of the World Bank, the political stability (WGI) can reflect the governance level of the country. The index mainly includes six sub-indices of violence and responsibility, political stability, government effectiveness, corruption degree, legal system and supervision quality. They are suitable for the evaluation of different life cycle stages of imported oil procurement. Generally, [−2.5, 2.5] is selected as the evaluation interval, in which −2.5 represents the lowest governance level and 2.5 represents the highest governance level, and then converted to [0, 100] by formula (4) in reverse. According to the production proportion of the corresponding production country of each imported oil, the WGI index is weighted to reflect the interruption of production and export due to domestic unrest or international terrorism and other turbulent situations in the relevant production country, affecting the stability of supply and increasing the supply risk.

[0069] C4 = 20 (2.5-WGI) (4)

[0070] C4 is the calculation result of the political stability original index converted to [0, 100], the larger the value represents the lower the political stability, and the higher the priority of protection; WGI represents the original result of the political stability index (data from Worldwide Governance Indicators).

[0071] 2. Oil equipment factor (SR2)

[0072] The oil consumption is mainly determined by the oil site factor, which is affected by the number of oil equipment and the maintenance period. Therefore, the indexes included in the oil site factor are equipment number (C5) and maintenance period (C6), which are defined as follows.

[0073] 2.1. Equipment number (C5)

[0074] According to the statistical information reported by the management department or the estimated number of oil equipment corresponding to the oil (order of magnitude), the larger the number (order of magnitude), the more the oil consumption corresponding to the same equipment, and the higher the supply risk. Therefore, the dimensionless equipment number C5 is defined as formula 5.

[0075]

[0076] For the same equipment, the number of different oil screening is the same, (EN) max = (EN) i The value is 1. For the evaluation of oil use of multiple different types of equipment, the actual maintenance period of the equipment in the same batch is estimated, (EN) max is the maximum number (order of magnitude) of equipment in the batch, (EN) iThe number of any equipment (order of magnitude).

[0077] 2.2, maintenance cycle (C6)

[0078] The maintenance cycle is determined according to the equipment maintenance regulations. The longer the maintenance cycle, the less oil consumed, the smaller the supply risk, and the smaller the support level. The dimensionless maintenance cycle is defined as:

[0079]

[0080] For the same equipment, the maintenance cycle is the same when different oils are screened, (MP) max =(MP) i The value is 1. For multiple different types of equipment or oil use of the same equipment, the actual maintenance cycle of the equipment in the same batch is estimated, (MP) max (MP) i is the maximum maintenance cycle of the equipment in the batch, (MP) * is the maintenance cycle of any equipment.

[0081] 3, oil technical factor (SR3), the indexes included in the oil technical factor (SR3) are: generalization degree (C7) and warranty period (C8). The two indexes are defined as follows.

[0082] 3.1 Generalization degree (C7)

[0083] The generalization degree (C7) of the oil represents the specificity of the oil. The lower the generalization degree, the poorer the application range of the oil, the stronger the specificity, and the lower the supply risk. In this invention, the generalization degree of the oil is from the perspective of the actual oil equipment, indicating how many types of equipment the same oil corresponds to. For example: diesel engine oil can be used in 5 ground equipment models, and also can be used in 3 ship equipment models; while aviation lubricating grease can only be used in 4 air equipment models, which means that the generalization degree of diesel engine oil is higher than that of aviation lubricating grease.

[0084] The generalization degree (C7) of the oil is represented by formula 9:

[0085]

[0086] In the formula, DG * represents the dimensionless generalization degree, N i represents the number of oil equipment categories corresponding to a certain oil, and N0 represents the minimum number of equipment categories, i.e. 1. The larger the value, the stronger the universality and the higher the priority.

[0087] 3.2, warranty period (C8)

[0088] The warranty period (C8) of the oil product can be used to directly measure the storage time of the oil product. The longer the storage time, the more the procurement quantity can be appropriately increased, the guarantee capacity can be improved, and the priority can be reduced.

[0089] The warranty period (C8) of the oil product is expressed by the following formula 10 by dimensionless processing:

[0090]

[0091] In the formula (WP) min and (WP) i respectively represent the minimum value of the recommended warranty period of all imported oils and the actual value of the warranty period of a certain oil product. The smaller the value, the longer the warranty period and the lower the priority.

[0092] S20: Score quantification is performed on each index in each index layer.

[0093] Specifically, each index is divided into several grades (e.g., 5 grades) based on the numerical range of each index in each factor, a base score is assigned to each grade, an adjustment score is calculated by linear interpolation within the grade interval, and the quantified score is the sum of the base score and the adjustment score.

[0094] The grades divided by each index in each factor and the scores assigned to each grade are shown in Tables 2, 3, and 4.

[0095] Table 2: Grade division of each index in the supply factor and base score assigned to each grade

[0096] Rank 1 2 3 4 5 Supply index ratio (C1) ≥10 [8，10) [6，8) [4，6) <4 The value of the degree of external dependence (C2) ≥8 [6，8) [4，6) [2，4) <2 Dimensionless procurement cycle value (C3) [6，7.5) [4.5，6) [3，4.5) [1.5，3) <1.5 Base score (D) 80 60 40 20 0

[0097] Table 3: Grade division of each index in the oil equipment factor and base score assigned to each grade

[0098] Rank 1 2 3 4 5 Number of equipment (C5) ≥10 [8，10) [6，8) [4，6) <4 Maintenance cycle (C6) ≥5 [4，5) [3，4) [2，3) 1 Base score (D) 80 60 40 20 0

[0099] Table 4: Grade division of each index in the oil product technology factor and base score assigned to each grade

[0100] Rank 1 2 3 4 5 Generalization (C7) ≥5 4 3 2 1 Warranty period (C8) ≥3 [2.5，3) [2，2.5) [1.5，2) [1，1.5) Base score (D) 80 60 40 20 0

[0101] The adjustment score is calculated using the linear interpolation formula, as shown in formula 11.

[0102]

[0103] where D represents the base score of the grade, C i represents the supply risk item score calculated according to the formula, E i represents the minimum base value of the file, IR represents the difference between the upper limit and the lower limit of the interval range set for each supply risk item, and S represents the difference between the base score gears.

[0104] S30: Determine the weight of each factor of the criterion layer and each index of the index layer, specifically using the G1 order relation analysis method to determine the weight, which specifically includes:

[0105] S31: Score the importance of each factor of the criterion layer and each index of the index layer.

[0106] Specifically, invite several experts (e.g., 10 experts) to score the importance of each factor and each index in the supply priority, and the scoring rules are shown in Tables 5 to 8.

[0107] Table 5: Scoring table for the importance of each factor

[0108]

[0109] Table 6: Scoring table for the importance of each index in the "supply factor (SR1)"

[0110]

[0111] Table 7: Scoring table for the importance of each index in the "equipment factor (SR2)"

[0112]

[0113] Table 8: Scoring table for the importance of each index in the "oil product technology factor (SR3)"

[0114]

[0115] S32: According to the average value of the scoring results, sort each factor and each index in order of importance from high to low, and determine the order relation.

[0116] The following Table 9 is the average score calculated after scoring each factor and each index of an oil product.

[0117] Table 9: Average score calculated after scoring each factor and each index

[0118]

[0119] The following Table 10 is the arrangement result of the new index set obtained based on the order of the average values of each factor and each index from large to small.

[0120] Table 10: Index set arranged in order of average values of each factor and each index from large to small

[0121]

[0122] S33: Based on the order relation, calculate the importance ratio r between adjacent factors and adjacent indexes k .

[0123] Importance ratio r k Score D of the next factor or index in sequence k+1 Score D of the previous factor or index k The ratio of the two, calculated by formula 11 as follows.

[0124]

[0125] Importance ratio r of a certain oil product calculated based on k As follows:

[0126] Importance ratio r of each factor k As follows:

[0127]

[0128] Importance ratio r of each index k As follows:

[0129]

[0130] Importance ratio r of each factor and index of a certain oil product calculated k Is summarized in Table 11 as follows.

[0131] Table 11: r k Value reference table

[0132] r k ]]> Explanation 1.0 C k+1 and C k have the same contribution degree 1.2 C k+1 C k slightly greater 1.4 C k+1 C k significantly greater 1.6 C k+1 C k contribution is strongly greater 1.8 C k+1 C k contribute absolutely much more

[0133] S34: According to the importance ratio r k , the weight of each factor in the criterion layer and the weight of each index in its own index layer are obtained.

[0134] Specifically, the weight of each index in its own index layer is calculated by the following formula:

[0135]

[0136] And:

[0137] w k = w k+1 r k , (k = 1, 2, 3,..., n-1) (17)

[0138] Wherein: the weight W k of each factor in the criterion layer can also be obtained based on the above calculation formula.

[0139] Based on the above formula, the weight W k of each factor in the criterion layer of a certain oil product calculatedrespectively, the weight of each index in factor SR1 is w1=0.28, w2=0.39, w3=0.18, w4=0.15, the weight of each index in factor SR2 is w5=0.35, w6=0.65, and the weight of each index in factor SR3 is w7=0.62, w8=0.38.

[0140] S40: According to the scores obtained in the score quantification of each index of the oil product to be evaluated and the weight corresponding to each index, the comprehensive score of each factor of the criterion layer of the oil product to be evaluated is calculated, and the comprehensive scores of each factor are added to obtain the supply priority score (A) of the oil product to be evaluated. Specifically, the following formula is used:

[0141]

[0142] SR1, SR2, and SR3 represent the comprehensive scores of the supply, equipment, and technology factors, W1, W2, and W3 represent the weights of the three factors, and w i is the weight of each index.

[0143] S50: Determine the supply priority level of the oil product to be evaluated based on the supply priority score of the oil product to be evaluated.

[0144] The score (A) of an oil product calculated by the above method is compared with the scores in Table 12 to finally determine the supply priority level of the oil product.

[0145] Table 12: Correspondence table of oil product supply priority level and score

[0146]

[0147] In some preferred embodiments, the present application also introduces an "energy security coefficient (ESC)" to adjust the supply priority of imported oil products.

[0148] Specifically, the energy security coefficient (ESC) is defined as:

[0149] ESC = α × strategic reserve rate + β × external dependence degree (19)

[0150] where the strategic reserve rate is defined as the sum of the existing reserve amount and the average annual import amount divided by the average annual consumption amount:

[0151]

[0152] The external dependence degree can be calculated according to formula 2, where α = 0.6, β = 0.4, and when ESC > 0.7, the highest risk level V (high risk) score interval is adjusted to (0, 30], and the emergency security response sensitivity is improved.

[0153] In addition, considering the impact of international crude oil price fluctuations on imported refined oil, the present application also introduces a price fluctuation rate to correct the supply index to reflect the supply risk brought by price fluctuations. The corrected supply index is:

[0154]

[0155] Where: ΔP is taken from the monthly volatility rate of Brent crude oil futures price. When the oil price rises more than 10%, ΔP = 0.1, amplifying the supply risk; when the oil price falls more than 10%, ΔP = -0.1, reducing the supply risk; otherwise, it remains unchanged.

[0156] In some preferred embodiments, the present application also introduces scenario mode to adjust the oil supply level. The scenario modes include: default scenario and interruption scenario.

[0157] The evaluation mode of the default scenario: it uses the original index data (C1-C8) and weight to calculate the priority, without forced adjustment;

[0158] Interruption scenario: defined as an extreme risk situation when simulating the disruption of key links in the supply chain, such as political unrest (e.g. war, sanctions) in the source of imported oil, resulting in the interruption of source supply, or extreme weather, natural disasters and other force majeure leading to the stagnation of the supply chain.

[0159] Interruption scenario evaluation mode:

[0160] Once the interruption scenario occurs, the key indicators in the "supply risk factor (SR1)" need to be forced to adjust:

[0161] (1) Adjustment of procurement cycle (C3)

[0162] It is forced to be set as the maximum value of the historical procurement cycle of the oil product, and after being non-dimensionalized according to formula (3), the value of C3 tends to 0 (indicating that the procurement risk reaches the highest level). The procurement cycle (C3) is reduced to level 5 in table 2 according to the adjusted value.

[0163] (2) Import origin stability (C4)

[0164] It is forced to set the inverse conversion value of the political stability (WGI) corresponding to this indicator to 0, indicating that the origin completely loses the supply capacity due to unrest. At this time, the import origin stability (C4) corresponds to level 5 according to the value of 0.

Claims

1. A method of assessing import oil product supply priority, characterized by, The method comprises the following steps: S10: constructing an import oil product supply priority evaluation index system; the index system comprises a target layer, a criterion layer and an index layer; S20: performing score quantification on each index in each index layer; S30: determining the weights of each factor in the criterion layer and each index in the index layer; S40: calculating the comprehensive scores of each factor in the criterion layer of the oil product to be evaluated according to the scores obtained in the score quantification of each index and the weights corresponding to each index, and adding the comprehensive scores of each factor to obtain the supply priority score of the oil product to be evaluated; S50: determining the supply priority level of the oil product to be evaluated based on the supply priority score of the oil product to be evaluated.

2. The import oil product supply priority assessment method according to claim 1, characterized by, The criterion layer comprises a supply risk factor, an oil equipment factor and an oil product technology factor; Each index layer comprises at least three indexes belonging to the supply risk factor, at least two indexes belonging to the oil equipment factor and at least two indexes belonging to the oil product technology factor.

3. The import oil product supply priority assessment method according to claim 2, characterized by, The indexes belonging to the supply risk factor at least comprise: a supply index representing the ratio of the existing reserves of the oil product to the annual average import amount; a foreign dependence degree representing the ratio of the import amount of the oil product to the consumption amount; a procurement cycle representing the time from submitting the oil demand to the oil product reaching the demand side.

4. The import oil product supply priority assessment method according to claim 2, characterized by, The indexes belonging to the oil equipment factor comprise: an equipment quantity representing the logarithmic value of the number of equipment using the oil product to be evaluated; a maintenance cycle representing the inverse of the equipment maintenance cycle.

5. The import oil product supply priority assessment method according to claim 2, characterized by, The indexes belonging to the oil product technology factor comprise: a generalization degree representing the ratio of the number of equipment categories suitable for the oil product to be evaluated to the minimum category number; a warranty period representing the ratio of the minimum recommended warranty period of all imported oil products to the warranty period of the oil product to be evaluated.

6. The import oil product supply priority assessment method according to claim 1, characterized by, In step S30, the G1 order relation analysis method is used to determine the weights, which specifically comprises: S31: performing importance scoring on each factor in the criterion layer and each index in the index layer; S32: according to the average value of the scoring results, sorting each factor and each index in order of importance from high to low to determine the order relation; S33: Based on the sequence relationship, the importance ratio r between adjacent factors and between adjacent indexes is calculated k ; S34: According to the importance ratio r k , the weight of each factor in the criterion layer and the weight of each index in the index layer to which it belongs are obtained.

7. The import oil product supply priority assessment method according to claim 1, characterized by, In step S20, the score quantification on each index in each index layer comprises: setting several grade intervals for each index, assigning a basic score to each grade interval, and calculating an adjustment score in the grade interval by linear interpolation method, and the quantified score is the sum of the basic score and the adjustment score.

8. The import oil product supply priority assessment method according to claim 1, characterized by, Further comprising: obtaining an energy security coefficient based on the strategic reserve rate and the foreign dependence degree; using the energy security coefficient to modify the divided score interval.

9. The import oil product supply priority assessment method according to claim 8, characterized by, Further comprising: obtaining an international crude oil price fluctuation rate; using the price fluctuation rate to modify the supply index.

10. The import oil product supply priority assessment method according to claim 1, characterized by, Further comprising an interruption scenario simulation evaluation mode, in which the following steps are performed: in response to an interruption scenario triggering instruction, identifying the affected supply chain link; forcibly adjusting the index values related to the affected link: adjusting the procurement cycle to the historical maximum value, and setting the political stability index value corresponding to the import origin stability to the minimum value; based on the adjusted index values, re-executing steps S20 to S50 to obtain the supply priority level of the oil product to be evaluated under the interruption scenario.

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