Graded monitoring method for glacial lake outburst type disaster chain based on disaster forming process

Abstract

The invention provides a graded monitoring method for an ice lake outburst type disaster chain based on a disaster forming process, and the method comprises the steps: 1, obtaining the remote sensing image data of a target ice lake, and recognizing and dividing the types of the ice lake based on the morphological characteristics and spatial relation of the target ice lake; and step 2, based on geographic information system data, evaluating the traffic reachability grade of the region where the target ice lake is located. And 3, calling a monitoring scheme matched with the target ice lake from a preset scheme library according to the target ice lake type identified in the step 1 and the target ice lake traffic accessibility level evaluated in the step 2. And step 4, executing the monitoring scheme in the step 3, obtaining multi-source monitoring data, performing fusion analysis, and outputting a burst risk level and early warning information based on an analysis result. According to the invention, through classification, partition and cooperation mechanisms, optimal configuration of monitoring resources and effective perception of the whole process of a disaster chain are realized.

Description

A hierarchical monitoring method for glacial lake outburst flood disaster chains based on disaster-causing processes. Technical Field

[0001] This invention belongs to the field of geological disaster monitoring technology, and in particular relates to a hierarchical monitoring method for glacial lake outburst disaster chains based on the disaster-causing process. Background Technology

[0002] Glacial lake outbursts are a typical major geological disaster in high-altitude mountainous areas worldwide. The disaster process involves the rapid and instantaneous release of water from a reservoir, creating a high-energy flood that erodes loose material in downstream channels, forming debris flows that pose a serious threat to downstream settlements and infrastructure. Based on their formation, glacial lakes can be mainly classified into moraine-blocked lakes, glacial-blocked lakes, surface lakes, subglacial lakes, and valley lakes.

[0003] In recent years, due to the continued impact of global climate change, the number and area of ​​glacial lakes in high-altitude mountainous areas have increased, and glacial lake outburst events have become more frequent, causing not only serious casualties and ecological damage but also huge economic losses. This phenomenon exposes significant deficiencies in the current monitoring, early warning, and prevention and control capabilities for glacial lake outburst events, as well as the lagging development and weak response capabilities of disaster prevention and mitigation systems in downstream areas.

[0004] Statistical and research results of existing outburst events indicate that glacial lakes blocked by moraine, glaciers, and surface ice are the most prone to outbursts. Since the development and evolution of glacial lakes is a relatively long process, and glacial lakes are generally at high altitudes and have a certain spatial distance from downstream disaster-bearing bodies, monitoring glacial lakes is an important means to effectively manage the risk of glacial lake outbursts and reduce casualties and property losses. Existing monitoring schemes mainly have the following limitations: (1) Homogeneous monitoring strategies. Existing schemes usually do not distinguish the fundamental differences in the causes and outburst mechanisms of different types of glacial lakes such as surface ice lakes, moraine blocked lakes, and glacier blocked lakes, and adopt relatively uniform monitoring indicators, resulting in insensitivity to the capture of key precursor information and low effectiveness of early warning.

[0005] (2) The deployment lacks economic considerations. In mountainous areas with extremely poor transportation, existing solutions are either too costly to implement or lack timeliness due to reliance on manual inspections. There is a lack of a mechanism to dynamically optimize resource allocation based on implementation conditions.

[0006] (3) Disconnection in disaster chain monitoring. Most schemes only focus on the state of the glacial lake itself and fail to build an integrated monitoring network covering the entire chain from the upstream triggering dynamic zone to the downstream disaster evolution zone, resulting in the inability to effectively perceive the complete development process of the disaster.

[0007] Therefore, there is an urgent need for a monitoring solution that can be intelligently, dynamically, and fully configured based on the inherent risks of the monitored object and the external implementation conditions. Summary of the Invention

[0008] The purpose of this invention is to overcome the shortcomings of the existing technology and provide a hierarchical monitoring method for glacial lake outburst disaster chains based on the disaster-causing process.

[0009] The present invention adopts the following technical solution: a hierarchical monitoring method for glacial lake outburst disaster chains based on disaster-causing processes, comprising: Step 1. Glacial lake type identification: acquiring remote sensing image data of the target glacial lake, identifying and classifying the glacial lake type based on the morphological characteristics and spatial relationships of the target glacial lake, wherein the glacial lake type includes at least surface lake, moraine-blocked lake and glacier-blocked lake.

[0010] Step 2. Accessibility assessment: Based on national road information, remote sensing interpretation and digital elevation model, assess the traffic accessibility level of the area where the target glacial lake is located. The traffic accessibility level includes at least four levels: good, moderate, poor and very poor.

[0011] Step 3. Monitoring scheme configuration: Based on the target glacial lake type identified in Step 1 and the target glacial lake traffic accessibility level assessed in Step 2, a matching monitoring scheme is retrieved from the pre-set scheme library.

[0012] Step 4. Data Fusion and Early Warning: Execute the monitoring plan in Step 3, acquire multi-source monitoring data, perform fusion analysis, and output the failure risk level and early warning information based on the analysis results.

[0013] Furthermore, the method for assessing the accessibility level in step 2 includes: constructing the accessibility level of the glacier lake based on the influencing indicators affecting its accessibility. The calculation formula is: ;in, Accessibility level; For standardized evaluation factors, The weights of each evaluation factor. include and . : The distance from the center line of the ice lake along the river channel to the nearest road along the river channel, in km. The average slope within the buffer zone on both sides of the river centerline, with a default buffer zone length of 500m, in degrees. The overall topographic relief within the buffer zone on both sides of the river centerline. The default buffer zone is 500m, and the unit is meters. yes The arithmetic mean, The calculation formula is: ; Topographic relief within a given analysis grid, measured in meters (m).

[0014] This analysis shows the maximum elevation value within the grid, in meters (m).

[0015] This analysis shows the minimum elevation value within the grid, in meters (m).

[0016] The default grid size for analysis is 100m×100m.

[0017] : Elevation of the glacial lake, in meters (m).

[0018] Weights of each evaluation factor Determined through expert scoring or analytic hierarchy process.

[0019] Furthermore, and The assignment rules are as follows: when When the distance is less than 2km, the value is 1.0; when... For distances greater than or equal to 2km and less than 10km, the value is 0.6; when... For distances greater than or equal to 10km and less than 30km, the value is 0.3; when... When the distance is greater than or equal to 30km, the value is 0.1.

[0020] when When the angle is less than 15°, the value is 1.0. When the angle is greater than or equal to 15° and less than 25°, the value is 0.6; when... When the angle is greater than or equal to 25° and less than 35°, the value is 0.3; when... For slopes greater than or equal to 35°, the value is 0.1. Integer slope thresholds facilitate quick determination of slope ranges and assignment of values ​​in practical work, effectively improving the efficiency of this indicator in glacial lake hazard assessment.

[0021] when When the value is less than 20m, the value is 1.0. For lengths greater than or equal to 20m and less than 50m, the value is 0.6; when... For lengths greater than or equal to 50m and less than 100m, the value is 0.3. When the value is greater than or equal to 100m, the value is 0.1.

[0022] when When the value is less than 4000m, the value is 1.0. For distances greater than or equal to 4000m and less than 4500m, the value is 0.6. For distances greater than or equal to 4500m and less than 5000m, the value is 0.3. When the value is greater than or equal to 5000m, the value is 0.1.

[0023] Furthermore, the monitoring scheme includes a combination of monitoring elements and technologies for each section of the glacial lake disaster-prone area, the triggering dynamic area, and the downstream evolution area.

[0024] Furthermore, in step 3, the monitoring schemes matching the target glacial lake type and its accessibility level include: (1) When the glacial lake surface and accessibility are good, the monitoring scheme is as follows: The monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone area, and the monitoring elements are ice thickness, water level and ice dam stability. The monitoring is conducted using optical remote sensing, UAVs, shallow water ice profilers, ice and water condition radars, water level gauges and cameras. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, and the monitoring elements are the dynamics of the parent glacier and meteorology. The monitoring is conducted using optical remote sensing, meteorological stations, cameras and microseismic monitoring instruments. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution area, and the monitoring elements are floods or debris flows. The monitoring is conducted using mud level gauges or water level gauges, flow meters and cameras.

[0025] (2) When the glacial lake and accessibility are moderate, the monitoring plan is as follows: For the glacial lake disaster-prone area, the monitoring elements are ice thickness, water level, and ice dam stability, using optical remote sensing, UAVs, glacial water level radar, water level gauges, and cameras. For the triggering dynamic area, the monitoring elements are the dynamics of the parent glacier and meteorology, using optical remote sensing, weather stations, and microseismic monitoring instruments. For the downstream evolution area, the monitoring elements are floods or debris flows, using mud level gauges or water level gauges and cameras.

[0026] (3) When the glacial lake has poor accessibility, the monitoring plan is as follows: The monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone area, and the monitoring elements are ice thickness, water level, and ice dam stability, using optical remote sensing, water level gauges, and cameras. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, and the monitoring elements are the dynamics of the parent glacier and meteorology, using optical remote sensing and meteorological stations. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution area, and the monitoring elements are floods or debris flows, using mud level gauges or water level gauges, cameras, and infrasound monitors.

[0027] (4) When the glacial lake has poor accessibility, the monitoring plan is as follows: If the monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone area, the monitoring elements are ice thickness, water level, and ice dam stability, and optical remote sensing is used for monitoring. If the monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, the monitoring elements are the dynamics of the parent glacier and meteorology, and optical remote sensing is used for monitoring. If the monitoring area is the downstream evolution area, the monitoring elements are floods or debris flows, and mud level gauges or water level gauges, infrasound monitors, ground acoustic monitors, cameras, and current meters are used for monitoring.

[0028] (5) When the lake is blocked by glacial moraine and has good accessibility, the monitoring plan is as follows: The monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone area, and the monitoring elements are area, water level, dam deformation and seepage. The monitoring is conducted using optical remote sensing or InSAR, UAVs, GNSS displacement gauges, crack gauges, resistivity tomography, piezometers and cameras. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, and the monitoring elements are ice avalanches or rockfalls and heavy rainfall. The monitoring is conducted using weather stations, crack gauges, inclinometers, microseismic monitoring instruments and cameras. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution area, and the monitoring element is debris flow. The monitoring is conducted using mud level gauges or water level gauges, flow meters and cameras.

[0029] (6) When the lake is blocked by glacial moraine and has moderate accessibility, the monitoring plan is as follows: The monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone area, and the monitoring elements are area, water level, dam deformation, and seepage. Monitoring will be conducted using optical remote sensing or InSAR, UAVs, GNSS displacement gauges, piezometers, and cameras. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic zone, and the monitoring elements are ice avalanches or rockfalls and heavy rainfall. Monitoring will be conducted using weather stations, crack gauges, microseismic monitoring instruments, and cameras. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution zone, and the monitoring element is debris flow. Monitoring will be conducted using mud level gauges or water level gauges and cameras.

[0030] (7) When glacial moraine blocks the lake and accessibility is poor, the monitoring plan is as follows: The monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone area, and the monitoring elements are area, water level, dam deformation and seepage, using optical remote sensing or InSAR, UAV, GNSS displacement meter and camera for monitoring. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, and the monitoring elements are ice avalanche or rockfall and heavy rainfall, using meteorological station and microseismic monitoring instrument for monitoring. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution area, and the monitoring element is debris flow, using mud level gauge or water level gauge, camera and infrasound monitoring instrument for monitoring.

[0031] (8) When a lake is blocked by glacial moraine and has poor accessibility, the monitoring plan is as follows: The monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone area, and the monitoring elements are area, water level, dam deformation and seepage, using optical remote sensing or InSAR monitoring. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, and the monitoring elements are ice avalanche or rockfall and heavy rainfall, using optical remote sensing and microseismic monitoring instruments. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution area, and the monitoring element is debris flow, using mud level gauges or water level gauges, infrasound monitoring instruments, ground acoustic monitoring instruments, cameras and current meters.

[0032] (9) When the glacier-blocked lake is accessible, the monitoring plan is as follows: The monitoring area is the glacier-prone disaster zone, and the monitoring elements are area, water level, and lakebed topography. Monitoring will be conducted using optical remote sensing, UAVs, resistivity tomography, water level gauges, and cameras. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic zone, and the monitoring elements are glacier undulation and ice seismic activity. Monitoring will be conducted using InSAR, GNSS displacement gauges, and microseismic monitoring instruments. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution zone, and the monitoring element is sudden flooding. Monitoring will be conducted using current meters, sediment gauges or water level gauges, and cameras.

[0033] (10) When the glacier-blocked lake has moderate accessibility, the monitoring plan is as follows: The monitoring area is the glacier-lake disaster-prone area, and the monitoring elements are area, water level, and lake bottom topography, using optical remote sensing, UAVs, water level gauges, and cameras. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, and the monitoring elements are glacier undulation and ice seismic events, using InSAR and microseismic monitoring instruments. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution area, and the monitoring element is sudden floods, using mud level gauges or water level gauges and cameras.

[0034] (11) When the glacier-blocked lake has poor accessibility, the monitoring scheme is as follows: The monitoring area is the glacier-lake disaster-prone area, and the monitoring elements are area, water level and lake bottom topography, using optical remote sensing, water level gauges and cameras. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, and the monitoring elements are glacier undulation and ice seismic events, using InSAR and microseismic monitoring instruments. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution area, and the monitoring element is sudden floods, using mud level gauges or water level gauges, cameras and infrasound monitoring instruments.

[0035] (12) When the lake is blocked by a glacier and has poor accessibility, the monitoring scheme is as follows: The monitoring area is the disaster-prone area of ​​the glacier lake, and the monitoring elements are area, water level and lake bottom topography, using optical remote sensing for monitoring. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, and the monitoring elements are glacier undulation and ice seismic events, using InSAR for monitoring. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution area, and the monitoring element is sudden floods, using mud level gauges or water level gauges, infrasound monitors, cameras and current meters for monitoring.

[0036] The beneficial effects of the present invention are: (1) Improve the ability to perceive key monitoring information: For different types of glacial lake outburst mechanisms, the monitoring focus is accurately set to capture the limited precursor information of glacial lake outburst.

[0037] (2) Optimize resource allocation: tailor allocation plans based on the differences in accessibility of the monitored areas to effectively avoid blind investment in inaccessible areas and improve overall economic efficiency.

[0038] (3) Achieve full-process coverage: Connect the entire disaster chain from disaster incubation to triggering to evolution, enhance the ability to perceive risk situation more completely, and extend the effective early warning time window.

[0039] (4) Enhance system resilience: multiple technologies complement each other. When a certain technology is limited, other technologies can still provide basic monitoring capabilities to ensure system reliability. Attached Figure Description

[0040] Figure 1 is a flowchart of the steps of the present invention.

[0041] Figure 2 shows the relationship curves between accessibility and early warning time, source area equipment quantity and economy of the present invention; (a) is the relationship graph between accessibility and early warning time, (b) is the relationship graph between accessibility and source area equipment quantity, and (c) is the relationship graph between accessibility and economy.

[0042] Figure 3 shows the slope.

[0043] Figure 4 shows the topographic relief.

[0044] Figure 5 is a schematic diagram of the monitoring layout. Detailed Implementation

[0045] To make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of this invention clearer, the technical solutions of this invention are described clearly and completely below. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some embodiments of this invention, not all embodiments. Based on the embodiments of this invention, all other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art without creative effort are within the scope of protection of this invention.

[0046] As shown in Figure 1, the present invention provides a hierarchical monitoring method for glacial lake outburst disaster chains based on disaster-causing processes, comprising: Step 1. Glacial lake type identification: acquiring remote sensing image data of the target glacial lake, identifying and classifying the glacial lake type based on the morphological characteristics and spatial relationships of the target glacial lake, wherein the glacial lake type includes at least surface lakes, moraine-blocked lakes and glacier-blocked lakes.

[0047] Step 2. Accessibility assessment: Based on national road information, remote sensing interpretation, and digital elevation model, assess the traffic accessibility level of the area where the target glacial lake is located. The traffic accessibility level includes four levels: good, moderate, poor, and very poor.

[0048] Step 3. Monitoring Scheme Configuration: Based on the target glacial lake type identified in Step 1 and the accessibility level of the target glacial lake assessed in Step 2, a matching monitoring scheme is retrieved from a pre-set scheme library. The monitoring scheme includes a combination of monitoring elements and technologies for each section of the glacial lake's disaster-prone area, triggering dynamics area, and downstream evolution area.

[0049] Step 4. Data Fusion and Early Warning: Execute the monitoring plan in Step 3, acquire multi-source monitoring data, perform fusion analysis, and output the failure risk level and early warning information based on the analysis results.

[0050] Furthermore, the method for assessing the accessibility level in step 2 includes: constructing the accessibility level of the glacier lake based on the influencing indicators affecting its accessibility. The calculation formula is: ;in, Accessibility level; For standardized evaluation factors, The weights of each evaluation factor. include and . : The distance from the center line of the ice lake along the river channel to the nearest road along the river channel, in km. The average slope within the buffer zone on both sides of the river centerline, with a default buffer zone length of 500m, in degrees. The overall topographic relief within the buffer zone on both sides of the river centerline. The default buffer zone is 500m, and the unit is meters. yes The arithmetic mean, The calculation formula is: .

[0051] Topographic relief within a given analysis grid, measured in meters (m).

[0052] This analysis shows the maximum elevation value within the grid, in meters (m).

[0053] This analysis shows the minimum elevation value within the grid, in meters (m).

[0054] The default grid size for analysis is 100m×100m.

[0055] : Elevation of the glacial lake, in meters (m).

[0056] Weights of each evaluation factor Determined through expert scoring or analytic hierarchy process.

[0057] Furthermore, by setting thresholds, each evaluation factor is standardized, and in accordance with the general industry classification standards for geological disaster evaluation, it is divided into four levels: good, medium, poor, and very poor. It directly reflects its accessibility; the closer the distance, the better the transportation accessibility. The greater the positive contribution, the better. Considering the topographical features of high-altitude glacial lake distribution areas, the feasibility of field surveys, and the practical needs of gradient matching accessibility and numerical rounding, the specific thresholds are as follows: The optimal critical upper limit for rapid trekking in mountainous areas is approximately 2km. Within this distance, equipment can be directly carried on foot, resulting in the highest operational efficiency. Therefore, 2km is set as the critical node for good and moderate accessibility. The reasonable single-trip trekking limit for routine daily fieldwork in high-altitude mountainous areas is approximately 10km. Exceeding this distance requires planning for camping and resupply, significantly increasing the operational difficulty and risk. Therefore, 10km is set as the critical node for moderate and poor accessibility. Around 30km is the practical operational boundary for high-altitude glacial lake surveys. Above this distance lies a near-uninhabited area, making routine field surveys difficult to conduct. Therefore, 30km is set as the critical line for poor and extremely poor accessibility.

[0058] Given that the difficulty of the journey increases exponentially with distance, the four levels correspond to value gradients of 1.0, 0.6, 0.3, and 0.1. The specific assignment rule is: when... When the distance is less than 2km, the value is 1.0; when... For distances greater than or equal to 2km and less than 10km, the value is 0.6; when... For distances greater than or equal to 10km and less than 30km, the value is 0.3; when... When the distance is greater than or equal to 30km, the value is 0.1.

[0059] This directly reflects the difficulty of transportation construction and access in the wild. The steeper the slope, the greater the difficulty of transportation construction and access, and the worse the accessibility. The more pronounced the negative impact, the more significant the negative impact. Considering the topographical features of high-altitude glacial lake distribution areas, the practicalities of mountain transportation construction, and the travel patterns observed in field surveys, as well as the actual needs of gradient matching accessibility and integer slope threshold determination, the specific thresholds are divided as follows: 15° is the upper limit of suitable slope for simple mountain transportation construction and regular hiking in the wild. Within this range, there are no significant steep slope obstacles, allowing for smooth passage with equipment. Transportation construction does not require large-scale engineering work, resulting in the highest operational efficiency. Therefore, 15° is set as the critical node for good and moderate accessibility. 25° is the extreme slope for regular hiking in mountainous areas without professional equipment, and also a reasonable practical threshold for simple transportation construction. Exceeding this slope requires basic outdoor equipment for passage, and transportation construction necessitates simple slope cutting and step construction, significantly increasing the operational difficulty and risk. Therefore, 25° is set as the critical node for moderate and poor accessibility. 35° is the practical boundary for engineering construction of mountain transportation and the professional limit for field access to high-altitude glacial lakes. Conventional transportation construction above this slope requires large-scale slope support, and field access requires professional mountaineering equipment and teamwork. The difficulty of conventional field survey operations increases dramatically. Therefore, 35° is set as the critical line between poor and very poor accessibility.

[0060] Given that the difficulty of transportation construction and traffic increases exponentially with increasing slope, the four levels correspond to value gradients of 1.0, 0.6, 0.3, and 0.1. The specific assignment rule is as follows: when... When the angle is less than 15°, the value is 1.0; when S is greater than or equal to 15° and less than 25°, the value is 0.6; when When the angle is greater than or equal to 25° and less than 35°, the value is 0.3; when... For slopes greater than or equal to 35°, the value is 0.1. Integer slope thresholds facilitate quick determination of slope ranges and assignment of values ​​in practical work, effectively improving the efficiency of this indicator in glacial lake hazard assessment.

[0061] This directly reflects the complexity of the terrain within the buffer zone. The greater the topographic relief and the more complex the terrain, the greater the obstacles to transportation infrastructure and access to the wild, resulting in poorer accessibility. The more pronounced the negative impact, the more significant the negative impact. Considering the valley topography of high-altitude glacial lake distribution areas, the cutting and filling work required for mountain transportation construction, the terrain accessibility patterns observed in field surveys, and the practical needs of gradient matching accessibility and numerical rounding, the specific thresholds are defined as follows: 20m is the upper limit of suitable terrain undulation for mountain transportation construction and regular hiking in the wild. At this distance, the terrain is flat with no significant drop, allowing for smooth passage along the river with equipment. Transportation construction does not require large-scale cutting and filling work, resulting in the highest operational efficiency. Therefore, 20m is set as the critical node for good and moderate accessibility. 50m is the limit of terrain undulation for regular passage in mountainous areas without specialized equipment. It is also a reasonable practical threshold for the construction of simple access roads in mountainous areas. Exceeding this undulation requires avoiding obstacles such as gullies and steep slopes, and transportation construction requires a small amount of cutting and filling work, significantly increasing the difficulty and risk of the operation. Therefore, 50m is set as the critical node for moderate and poor accessibility. 100m is the practical boundary for conventional transportation construction in mountainous areas, and also the limit of terrain accessibility for field surveys of high-altitude glacial lakes. Above this level of undulation, the terrain has a large drop and dense obstacles. Conventional transportation construction requires large-scale engineering treatment, and field access requires professional equipment and teamwork. Conventional field surveys are difficult to carry out efficiently. Therefore, 100m is set as the critical line between poor and extremely poor accessibility.

[0062] Given that the difficulty of transportation construction and access increases exponentially with the terrain's undulation, the four levels correspond to value gradients of 1.0, 0.6, 0.3, and 0.1. The specific value assignment rule is: when... When the value is less than 20m, the value is 1.0. For lengths greater than or equal to 20m and less than 50m, the value is 0.6; when... For lengths greater than or equal to 50m and less than 100m, the value is 0.3. When the value is greater than or equal to 100m, the value is 0.1.

[0063] This directly reflects the degree to which high-altitude environments constrain transportation construction and field operations. The higher the altitude, the more significant the impact of cold, oxygen deficiency, and permafrost conditions, leading to higher costs and difficulties in transportation construction, higher requirements for field operation safety, and poorer accessibility. The more pronounced the negative impact, the more significant the negative impact. Considering the geographical characteristics of high-altitude plateau regions, the human body's tolerance to high altitudes, the engineering adaptability of transportation construction in high-altitude mountainous areas, and the practical needs of gradient matching accessibility and numerical rounding, the specific thresholds are divided as follows: 4000m is the critical threshold between conventional and high-altitude plateaus, and also the upper limit of human tolerance without significant altitude sickness. Within this distance, field surveys do not require professional altitude sickness protection, transportation construction is minimally affected by the cold environment, and operational efficiency is highest. Therefore, 4000m is set as the critical node for good and moderate accessibility. 4500m is the critical node for moderate high altitude, and also the limit of human tolerance for conventional field work in high-altitude areas. Above this altitude, some personnel will experience moderate altitude sickness, and transportation construction is significantly less efficient due to permafrost and lack of oxygen. Basic high-altitude support materials are required, and the difficulty and risk of operations are significantly increased. Therefore, 4500m is set as the critical node for moderate and poor accessibility. 5000m is the critical limit of extremely high altitude and also the practical boundary of engineering construction for transportation in high-altitude mountainous areas. Above this altitude, people are prone to severe altitude sickness, and transportation construction is difficult to carry out due to factors such as permafrost and extreme low temperatures. The safety risks of conventional field investigations are extremely high. Therefore, 5000m is set as the critical line between poor and very poor accessibility.

[0064] Given that the difficulty of transportation construction and field operations increases exponentially with altitude, the four levels correspond to value gradients of 1.0, 0.6, 0.3, and 0.1. The specific assignment rule is as follows: when... When the value is less than 4000m, the value is 1.0. For distances greater than or equal to 4000m and less than 4500m, the value is 0.6. For distances greater than or equal to 4500m and less than 5000m, the value is 0.3. When the value is greater than or equal to 5000m, the value is 0.1.

[0065] Through formula Calculated The value can be used to determine the accessibility level of the ice lake, such as... A value in the range [0-0.25] indicates poor accessibility. A value between 0.25 and 0.5 indicates poor accessibility. A value between 0.5 and 0.75 indicates moderate accessibility. A value in the range of [0.75-1] indicates good traffic accessibility.

[0066] Furthermore, as shown in Figure 2, in step 3, the monitoring schemes that match the target glacial lake type and the target glacial lake accessibility level include: (1) When the glacial lake surface and accessibility are good, the monitoring scheme is as follows: The monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone area, and the monitoring elements are ice thickness, water level and ice dam stability. Optical remote sensing, UAV, shallow water ice profiler, ice water condition radar, water level gauge and camera can be used for monitoring. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, and the monitoring elements are the dynamics of the parent glacier and meteorology. Optical remote sensing, meteorological station, camera and microseismic monitoring instrument are used for monitoring. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution area, and the monitoring elements are flood or debris flow. Mud level gauge or water level gauge, current meter and camera are used for monitoring.

[0067] (2) When the glacial lake and accessibility are moderate, the monitoring plan is as follows: If the monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone area, the monitoring elements are ice thickness, water level, and ice dam stability, which can be monitored using optical remote sensing, UAVs, glacial water level radar, water level gauges, and cameras. If the monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, the monitoring elements are the dynamics of the parent glacier and meteorology, which can be monitored using optical remote sensing, weather stations, and microseismic monitoring instruments. If the monitoring area is the downstream evolution area, the monitoring elements are floods or debris flows, which can be monitored using mud level gauges or water level gauges and cameras.

[0068] (3) When the glacial lake has poor accessibility, the monitoring plan is as follows: If the monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone area, the monitoring elements are ice thickness, water level, and ice dam stability, and optical remote sensing, water level gauges, and cameras are used for monitoring. If the monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, the monitoring elements are the dynamics of the parent glacier and meteorology, and optical remote sensing and meteorological stations can be used for monitoring. If the monitoring area is the downstream evolution area, the monitoring elements are floods or debris flows, and mud level gauges or water level gauges, cameras, and infrasound monitors are used for monitoring.

[0069] (4) When the glacial lake has poor accessibility, the monitoring plan is as follows: If the monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone area, the monitoring elements are ice thickness, water level, and ice dam stability, and optical remote sensing is used for monitoring. If the monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, the monitoring elements are the dynamics of the parent glacier and meteorology, and optical remote sensing is used for monitoring. If the monitoring area is the downstream evolution area, the monitoring elements are floods or debris flows, and mud level gauges or water level gauges, infrasound monitors, ground acoustic monitors, cameras, and current meters are used for monitoring.

[0070] Ice lakes are located directly on the surface or terminus of glaciers. Their outbursts are often caused by the collapse of ice dams or changes in the hydraulic system inside the glacier, and are characterized by their suddenness and short prediction period.

[0071] (5) When the lake is blocked by glacial moraine and has good accessibility, the monitoring plan is as follows: The monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone area, and the monitoring elements are area, water level, dam deformation and seepage. The monitoring is conducted using optical remote sensing or InSAR, UAVs, GNSS displacement gauges, crack gauges, resistivity tomography, piezometers and cameras. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, and the monitoring elements are ice avalanches or rockfalls and heavy rainfall. The monitoring is conducted using weather stations, crack gauges, inclinometers, microseismic monitoring instruments and cameras. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution area, and the monitoring element is debris flow. The monitoring is conducted using mud level gauges or water level gauges, flow meters and cameras.

[0072] (6) When the lake is blocked by glacial moraine and has moderate accessibility, the monitoring plan is as follows: The monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone area, and the monitoring elements are area, water level, dam deformation, and seepage. Monitoring will be conducted using optical remote sensing or InSAR, UAVs, GNSS displacement gauges, piezometers, and cameras. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic zone, and the monitoring elements are ice avalanches or rockfalls and heavy rainfall. Monitoring will be conducted using weather stations, crack gauges, microseismic monitoring instruments, and cameras. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution zone, and the monitoring element is debris flow. Monitoring will be conducted using mud level gauges or water level gauges and cameras.

[0073] (7) When glacial moraine blocks the lake and accessibility is poor, the monitoring plan is as follows: The monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone area, and the monitoring elements are area, water level, dam deformation and seepage, using optical remote sensing or InSAR, UAV, GNSS displacement meter and camera for monitoring. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, and the monitoring elements are ice avalanche or rockfall and heavy rainfall, using meteorological station and microseismic monitoring instrument for monitoring. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution area, and the monitoring element is debris flow, using mud level gauge or water level gauge, camera and infrasound monitoring instrument for monitoring.

[0074] (8) When a lake is blocked by glacial moraine and has poor accessibility, the monitoring plan is as follows: The monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone area, and the monitoring elements are area, water level, dam deformation and seepage, using optical remote sensing or InSAR monitoring. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, and the monitoring elements are ice avalanche or rockfall and heavy rainfall, using optical remote sensing and microseismic monitoring instruments. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution area, and the monitoring element is debris flow, using mud level gauges or water level gauges, infrasound monitoring instruments, ground acoustic monitoring instruments, cameras and current meters.

[0075] Glacial moraine-blocked lakes are formed by glacial deposits blocking the water, and are the most common and dangerous type. The core risk lies in the stability of the moraine dam itself.

[0076] (9) When the glacier-blocked lake is accessible, the monitoring plan is as follows: The monitoring area is the glacier-prone disaster zone, and the monitoring elements are area, water level, and lakebed topography. Monitoring will be conducted using optical remote sensing, UAVs, resistivity tomography, water level gauges, and cameras. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic zone, and the monitoring elements are glacier undulation and ice seismic activity. Monitoring will be conducted using InSAR, GNSS displacement gauges, and microseismic monitoring instruments. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution zone, and the monitoring element is sudden flooding. Monitoring will be conducted using current meters, sediment gauges or water level gauges, and cameras.

[0077] (10) When the glacier-blocked lake has moderate accessibility, the monitoring plan is as follows: The monitoring area is the glacier-lake disaster-prone area, and the monitoring elements are area, water level, and lake bottom topography, using optical remote sensing, UAVs, water level gauges, and cameras. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, and the monitoring elements are glacier undulation and ice seismic events, using InSAR and microseismic monitoring instruments. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution area, and the monitoring element is sudden floods, using mud level gauges or water level gauges and cameras.

[0078] (11) When the glacier-blocked lake has poor accessibility, the monitoring scheme is as follows: The monitoring area is the glacier-lake disaster-prone area, and the monitoring elements are area, water level and lake bottom topography, using optical remote sensing, water level gauges and cameras. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, and the monitoring elements are glacier undulation and ice seismic events, using InSAR and microseismic monitoring instruments. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution area, and the monitoring element is sudden floods, using mud level gauges or water level gauges, cameras and infrasound monitoring instruments.

[0079] (12) When the lake is blocked by a glacier and has poor accessibility, the monitoring scheme is as follows: The monitoring area is the disaster-prone area of ​​the glacier lake, and the monitoring elements are area, water level and lake bottom topography, using optical remote sensing for monitoring. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, and the monitoring elements are glacier undulation and ice seismic events, using InSAR for monitoring. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution area, and the monitoring element is sudden floods, using mud level gauges or water level gauges, infrasound monitors, cameras and current meters for monitoring.

[0080] Glacier-blocked lakes are formed by glaciers blocking the main river valley. Their outbursts are periodic, often caused by the opening of subglacial tunnels or the uplift of the ice cap, resulting in the rapid emptying of the accumulated lake water.

[0081] The embodiment takes a certain glacial lake as an example to carry out relevant monitoring deployment. The specific steps are as follows: (1) Based on high-definition remote sensing images, the type of glacial lake is determined to be a glacial moraine blocked lake, and the overflow point of the glacial lake terminal moraine dam is determined at the same time. (2) Based on high-definition remote sensing images, determine the nearest accessible ditch point near the road. (3) Use manual drawing or automatic recognition programs to determine the centerline of the downstream channel of the glacial lake. and statistics to Distance along the center line of the river =11.98km; (4) In the ArcGIS platform, use the buffer tool to travel along... Generate a 500m buffer zone (5) Using a digital elevation model with a precision of 12.5m, extract values ​​to points using the value extraction tool in the ArcGIS platform to obtain... Point Elevation =4650m; (6) In the ArcGIS platform, use the slope tool and focus statistics tool to obtain the slope and undulation raster respectively, as shown in Figures 3, 4 and 5; (7) Use Cut the slope and undulation grids, calculate the average grid value, and obtain... =33.6°, =10.1m; (8) According to the above-mentioned content, we get , , , The assigned values ​​were 0.3, 0.3, 1.0 and 0.3 respectively; (9) Based on the environmental background conditions of the glacial lake development area, the evaluation factors L, L and L were determined by the expert scoring method. , , The weights are 0.25, 0.35, 0.3 and 0.1.

[0082] (10) Based on the level of accessibility The calculation formula is obtained. =0.3×0.25+0.3×0.35+1.0×0.3+0.3×0.1=0.51. According to the aforementioned information, the accessibility level of this glacial lake is medium.

[0083] (11) Based on the moderately accessible monitoring scheme for glacial moraine-blocked lakes, and considering the type of glacial lake and its potential outburst characteristics, the proposed monitoring types and equipment are shown in Figure 5 and described below. Proposed monitoring types and equipment: Space-based monitoring, using optical remote sensing, with a monitoring range of 16 km. 2 InSAR monitoring was used, with a monitoring range of 14 km. 2 Aerial monitoring, using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), has a monitoring range of 2km. 2 For foundation monitoring, the following equipment will be deployed: 2 integrated meteorological stations, 5 GNSS displacement meters, 2 crack gauges, 1 water level gauge, 6 microseismic monitoring instruments, 2 current meters, 2 cameras, 8 mud level gauges or water level gauges, and 3 early warning broadcast systems.

[0084] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention, and not to limit them; although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that modifications can still be made to the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments, or equivalent substitutions can be made to some of the technical features; and these modifications or substitutions do not cause the essence of the corresponding technical solutions to deviate from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.

Claims

1. A hierarchical monitoring method for glacial lake outburst flood disaster chains based on the disaster-causing process, characterized in that, include: Step 1. Glacier Lake Type Identification: Acquire remote sensing image data of the target glacier lake. Based on the morphological characteristics and spatial relationships of the target glacier lake, identify and classify the glacier lake type, which includes at least ice-covered lakes, moraine-blocked lakes, and glacier-blocked lakes. Step 2. Accessibility Assessment: Based on national road information, remote sensing interpretation, and digital elevation models, assess the traffic accessibility level of the area where the target glacier lake is located. The traffic accessibility level includes four levels: good, moderate, poor, and very poor. Step 3. Monitoring Scheme Configuration: Based on the target glacier lake type identified in Step 1 and the target glacier lake traffic accessibility level assessed in Step 2, call the matching monitoring scheme from the pre-set scheme library. Step 4. Data Fusion and Early Warning: Execute the monitoring scheme in Step 3, acquire multi-source monitoring data, perform fusion analysis, and output the outburst risk level and early warning information based on the analysis results.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The accessibility assessment method in step 2 includes: constructing the accessibility level of the glacier lake based on the influencing indicators affecting its accessibility. The calculation formula is: ;in, Accessibility level; For standardized evaluation factors, The weights of each evaluation factor; include and ； : The distance from the center line of the ice lake along the river channel to the nearest road along the river channel, in km; The average slope within the buffer zone on both sides of the river centerline, in degrees; The overall topographic relief within the buffer zone on both sides of the river centerline, in meters. yes The arithmetic mean, The calculation formula is: ； Topographic relief within a given analysis grid, in meters (m). This analysis shows the maximum elevation value within the grid, in meters (m). This analysis shows the minimum elevation value within the grid, in meters (m). : Elevation of the glacial lake, in meters; Weights of each evaluation factor Determined through expert scoring or analytic hierarchy process.

3. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that, and The assignment rules are as follows: when When the distance is less than 2km, the value is 1.0; when... For distances greater than or equal to 2km and less than 10km, the value is 0.6; when... For distances greater than or equal to 10km and less than 30km, the value is 0.3; when... When the distance is greater than or equal to 30km, the value is 0.1; when When the angle is less than 15°, the value is 1.

0. When the angle is greater than or equal to 15° and less than 25°, the value is 0.6; when... When the angle is greater than or equal to 25° and less than 35°, the value is 0.3; when... When the angle is greater than or equal to 35°, the value is 0.1; when When the value is less than 20m, the value is 1.

0. For lengths greater than or equal to 20m and less than 50m, the value is 0.6; when... For lengths greater than or equal to 50m and less than 100m, the value is 0.

3. When the value is greater than or equal to 100m, the value is 0.1; when When the value is less than 4000m, the value is 1.

0. For distances greater than or equal to 4000m and less than 4500m, the value is 0.

6. For distances greater than or equal to 4500m and less than 5000m, the value is 0.

3. When the value is greater than or equal to 5000m, the value is 0.

1.

4. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The monitoring scheme described in step 3 includes a combination of monitoring elements and technologies for each section of the glacial lake disaster-prone area, the triggering dynamic area, and the downstream evolution area.

5. The method according to claim 4, characterized in that, The monitoring schemes matched in step 3 include: (1) When the glacial lake and accessibility are good, the monitoring scheme is as follows: the monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone area, the monitoring elements are ice thickness, water level and ice dam stability, and the monitoring is carried out by optical remote sensing, UAV, shallow water ice profiler, ice water radar, water level gauge and camera; the monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, the monitoring elements are the dynamics of the parent glacier and meteorology, and the monitoring is carried out by optical remote sensing, meteorological station, camera and microseismic monitoring instrument; the monitoring area is the downstream evolution area, the monitoring elements are flood or debris flow, and the monitoring is carried out by mud level gauge or water level gauge, current meter and camera; (2) When the glacial lake and accessibility are moderate, the monitoring scheme is as follows: the monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone area, the monitoring elements are ice thickness, water level and ice dam stability, and the monitoring is carried out by optical remote sensing, UAV, ice water radar, water level gauge and camera; the monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, the monitoring elements are the dynamics of the parent glacier and meteorology, and the monitoring is carried out by optical remote sensing, meteorological station and microseismic monitoring instrument; the monitoring area is the downstream evolution area. (3) When the ice lake is inaccessible, the monitoring scheme is as follows: the monitoring area is the ice lake disaster-prone area, the monitoring elements are ice thickness, water level and ice dam stability, and the monitoring is carried out by optical remote sensing, water level gauge and camera; the monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, the monitoring elements are the dynamics of the parent glacier and the weather, and the monitoring is carried out by optical remote sensing and weather station; the monitoring area is the downstream evolution area, the monitoring elements are flood or debris flow, and the monitoring is carried out by mud level gauge or water level gauge, camera and infrasound monitor; (4) When the ice lake is inaccessible, the monitoring scheme is as follows: the monitoring area is the ice lake disaster-prone area, the monitoring elements are ice thickness, water level and ice dam stability, and the monitoring is carried out by optical remote sensing; the monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, the monitoring elements are the dynamics of the parent glacier and the weather, and the monitoring is carried out by optical remote sensing; the monitoring area is the downstream evolution area, the monitoring elements are flood or debris flow, and the monitoring is carried out by mud level gauge or water level gauge, infrasound monitor, ground sound monitor, camera and current meter.

6. The method according to claim 5, characterized in that, Step 3 also includes: (1) When the lake is blocked by glacial moraine and has good accessibility, the monitoring plan is as follows: The monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone area, and the monitoring elements are area, water level, dam deformation and seepage. The monitoring is carried out using optical remote sensing or InSAR, UAV, GNSS displacement meter, crack meter, resistivity tomography, piezometer and camera. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, and the monitoring elements are ice avalanche or rockfall and heavy rainfall. The monitoring is carried out using meteorological station, crack meter, inclinometer, microseismic monitoring instrument and camera. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution area, and the monitoring needs to be carried out in accordance with the requirements of the monitoring plan. (1) For debris flows, mud level gauges or water level gauges, flow velocity meters and cameras are used for monitoring; (2) When the lake is blocked by glacial moraine and has moderate accessibility, the monitoring plan is as follows: The monitoring area is the glacial lake disaster-prone area, and the monitoring elements are area, water level, dam deformation and seepage. Optical remote sensing or InSAR, UAV, GNSS displacement gauge, piezometer and camera are used for monitoring. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, and the monitoring elements are ice avalanche or rockfall and heavy rainfall. Weather stations, crack gauges, microseismic monitoring instruments and cameras are used for monitoring. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution area, and the monitoring... The monitoring scheme is as follows: (3) When the lake is blocked by glacial moraine and has poor accessibility, the monitoring area is the disaster-prone area of ​​the glacial lake, and the monitoring elements are area, water level, dam deformation and seepage. The monitoring is carried out by optical remote sensing or InSAR, UAV, GNSS displacement meter and camera. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, and the monitoring elements are ice avalanche or rockfall and heavy rainfall. The monitoring is carried out by meteorological station and microseismic monitoring instrument. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution area, and the monitoring element is debris flow. The monitoring is carried out by mud level gauge or water level gauge and camera. (4) When the lake is blocked by glacial moraine and has poor accessibility, the monitoring scheme is as follows: the monitoring area is the disaster-prone area of ​​the glacial lake, and the monitoring elements are area, water level, dam deformation and seepage. Optical remote sensing or InSAR monitoring is used. The monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, and the monitoring elements are ice avalanche or rockfall and heavy rainfall. Optical remote sensing and microseismic monitoring are used. The monitoring area is the downstream evolution area, and the monitoring element is debris flow. Mud level gauge or water level gauge, infrasound monitoring instrument, ground sound monitoring instrument, camera and flow velocity meter are used for monitoring.

7. The method according to claim 6, characterized in that, Step 3 also includes: (1) When the glacier-blocked lake has good accessibility, the monitoring scheme is as follows: the monitoring area is the glacier-lake disaster-prone area, the monitoring elements are area, water level and lake bottom topography, and the monitoring is carried out by optical remote sensing, UAV, resistivity tomography, water level gauge and camera; the monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, the monitoring elements are glacier pulsation and ice tremor, and the monitoring is carried out by InSAR, GNSS displacement gauge and microseismic monitoring instrument; the monitoring area is the downstream evolution area, the monitoring element is sudden flood, and the monitoring is carried out by current meter, mud level gauge or water level gauge and camera; (2) When the glacier-blocked lake has moderate accessibility, the monitoring scheme is as follows: the monitoring area is the glacier-lake disaster-prone area, the monitoring elements are area, water level and lake bottom topography, and the monitoring is carried out by optical remote sensing, UAV, water level gauge and camera; the monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, the monitoring elements are glacier pulsation and ice tremor, and the monitoring is carried out by InSAR and microseismic monitoring instrument; the monitoring area is the downstream evolution area, the monitoring element is sudden flood. (3) When the glacier-blocked lake has poor accessibility, the monitoring scheme is as follows: the monitoring area is the glacier lake disaster-prone area, the monitoring elements are area, water level and lake bottom topography, and the monitoring is carried out by optical remote sensing, water level gauge and camera; the monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, the monitoring elements are glacier pulsation and ice tremor, and the monitoring is carried out by InSAR and microseismic monitoring instrument; the monitoring area is the downstream evolution area, the monitoring elements are sudden flood, and the monitoring is carried out by mud level gauge or water level gauge, camera and infrasound monitoring instrument; (4) When the glacier-blocked lake has poor accessibility, the monitoring scheme is as follows: the monitoring area is the glacier lake disaster-prone area, the monitoring elements are area, water level and lake bottom topography, and the monitoring is carried out by optical remote sensing; the monitoring area is the triggering dynamic area, the monitoring elements are glacier pulsation and ice tremor, and the monitoring is carried out by InSAR; the monitoring area is the downstream evolution area, the monitoring elements are sudden flood, and the monitoring is carried out by mud level gauge or water level gauge, infrasound monitoring instrument, camera and current meter.

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