Method and device for predicting oil production of shale oil reservoir fractured horizontal well

Abstract

The invention discloses a shale oil reservoir fractured horizontal well oil production prediction method and device. The method comprises the steps of determining single well average characteristic oil production change data of a reference well based on oil production change data of the reference well; according to the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well, N production stages included in the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well and oil production change characteristics of the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in each production stage are determined; according to the current actual oil production change data of the target well, the production duration of the to-be-predicted oil production of the target well, the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well, and the oil production change characteristics of the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in each production stage, the production duration of the to-be-predicted oil production of the target well is calculated; and predicting the oil production of the target well within the production duration of the to-be-predicted oil production. According to the method, the oil production of the shale oil reservoir fractured horizontal well can be relatively simply and rapidly predicted.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of petroleum development technology, and in particular to a method and apparatus for predicting oil production from fractured horizontal wells in shale oil reservoirs. Background Technology

[0002] Shale oil reservoirs have low matrix permeability, typically requiring well fracturing to improve layer permeability. Currently, shale oil reservoirs are mainly developed using a "horizontal well + fracturing" approach. After horizontal well fracturing, extraction is primarily carried out using a depletion-type development method. Predicting shale oil well production during this depletion-type development process is crucial for shale oil reservoir development; therefore, how to predict shale oil well production is a key consideration in shale oil reservoir development. Summary of the Invention

[0003] Currently, reservoir numerical simulation is commonly used to predict oil production from shale oil reservoirs. However, reservoir numerical simulation is relatively labor-intensive and time-consuming.

[0004] In view of the above problems, a method and device for predicting oil production from fractured horizontal wells in shale oil reservoirs are proposed. The method described in this paper can predict the oil production of fractured horizontal wells in shale oil reservoirs relatively simply and quickly.

[0005] In a first aspect, embodiments of the present invention provide a method for predicting oil production from fractured horizontal wells in shale oil reservoirs, comprising:

[0006] Based on the oil production change data of reference wells, determine the average characteristic oil production change data of reference wells; the reference wells are all fractured horizontal wells in the target block except for the target well; the current actual production time of the target well is not less than 6 months; the production time of the average characteristic oil production change data of reference wells is greater than the current actual production time of the target well.

[0007] Based on the average characteristic oil production change data of reference wells, determine the N production stages included in the average characteristic oil production change data of reference wells, and the oil production change characteristics of the average characteristic oil production change data of reference wells in each production stage. The oil production change characteristics of the average characteristic oil production change data of reference wells in each production stage include the stage production duration of each production stage, the change trend of the average characteristic oil production of reference wells in each production stage, and the fitting relationship between the average characteristic oil production data of reference wells in each production stage and the production time of that stage.

[0008] Based on the current actual production time of the target well, the current actual oil production change data of the target well, and the oil production change characteristics of the average characteristic oil production of the reference well at each production stage, determine the current production stage of the target well and the current actual production time of that stage.

[0009] Based on the current production stage of the target well and the actual production time of that stage, as well as the oil production change characteristics of the average single-well characteristic oil production data of the reference well in each production stage, the production time of the target well to be predicted oil production is determined; the production time of the target well to be predicted oil production includes the production time of the target well to be predicted oil production in the current production stage and the production time of the target well to be predicted oil production in each subsequent production stage.

[0010] Based on the current actual oil production change data of the target well, the production duration of the target well to be predicted, the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well, and the oil production change characteristics of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well at each production stage, the oil production of the target well within the production duration of the to be predicted oil production is predicted.

[0011] In some optional embodiments, based on the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well, the N production stages included in the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well are determined, and the oil production change characteristics of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in each production stage are determined, including:

[0012] Based on the variation data of the average characteristic oil production of reference wells, determine the variation trend of the average characteristic oil production of reference wells with production time.

[0013] Based on the variation trend of the average characteristic oil production of reference wells with production time, the average characteristic oil production of reference wells is divided into N production stages, and the production duration of each production stage and the variation trend of the average characteristic oil production of reference wells in each production stage are determined.

[0014] The average characteristic oil production data of the reference well in each production stage is fitted with the production time of that stage to obtain the fitting relationship between the average characteristic oil production data of the reference well in each production stage and the production time of that stage.

[0015] In some optional embodiments, based on the current actual production duration of the target well, the current actual oil production change data of the target well, and the oil production change characteristics of the average characteristic oil production of the reference well at each production stage, the current production stage of the target well and the current actual production duration of that stage are determined, including:

[0016] Based on the current actual production time and the current actual oil production change data of the target well, determine the trend of the current actual oil production change data of the target well with production time;

[0017] By correlating the current actual oil production change data of the target well with the change trend of the average characteristic oil production data of the reference well with the change trend of the reference well with the change trend of the reference well with the change trend of the reference well's average characteristic oil production, the current production stage of the target well and the actual production time of the current stage can be determined.

[0018] In some optional embodiments, the production duration for predicting the oil production of the target well is determined based on the current production stage of the target well, the actual production duration of that stage, and the oil production variation characteristics of the average characteristic oil production of reference wells in each production stage. This includes:

[0019] Based on the actual production time of the target well in its current production stage and the stage production time of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in the corresponding production stage, the production time of the predicted oil production in the current production stage of the target well is determined.

[0020] If the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well still has subsequent production stages, the production duration of the expected oil production in each subsequent production stage of the target well is determined based on the stage production duration of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in each subsequent production stage.

[0021] In some optional embodiments, based on the actual production duration of the target well's current production stage and the stage production duration of the reference well's average characteristic oil production change data in the corresponding production stage, the production duration of the target well's current production stage to be predicted is determined, including:

[0022] Based on the current production stage of the target well, obtain the stage production duration of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in the corresponding production stage; use the stage production duration of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in the corresponding production stage as the stage production duration of the current production stage of the target well.

[0023] Determine the difference between the current production stage duration of the target well and the actual production duration of the current production stage. Use this difference as the production duration of the predicted oil production in the current production stage of the target well.

[0024] In some optional embodiments, when the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well still has subsequent production stages, the production duration of the target well's subsequent production stages is determined based on the stage production duration of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in each subsequent production stage, including:

[0025] When the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well still has subsequent production stages, the production duration of each subsequent production stage of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well is used as the production duration of the expected oil production of the target well in each subsequent corresponding production stage.

[0026] In some optional embodiments, based on the current actual oil production change data of the target well, the production duration of the target well to be predicted oil production, the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well, and the oil production change characteristics of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well at each production stage, the oil production of the target well within the production duration to be predicted oil production is predicted, including:

[0027] Based on the current production stage of the target well, obtain the fitting relationship between the average characteristic oil production data of the reference well in the corresponding production stage and the production time of that stage, and the average characteristic oil production data of the reference well in the corresponding production stage.

[0028] Based on the actual oil production data of the target well at its current production stage, the fitting relationship between the average characteristic oil production data of the reference well at the corresponding production stage and the production time of that stage, and the average characteristic oil production data of the reference well at the corresponding production stage, the oil production of the target well at each time point within the production time of the expected oil production at its current production stage is predicted.

[0029] When the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well still has subsequent production stages, the oil production of the target well is predicted sequentially according to the chronological order of the production stages, for each time period within the production duration of the expected oil production in each subsequent production stage. The prediction process for the oil production of the target well at each time period within the production duration of the expected oil production in each subsequent production stage is as follows:

[0030] When the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well still has another production stage, obtain the fitting relationship between the average characteristic oil production data of the reference well in the next production stage and the production time of that production stage, and the oil production of the reference well at the first time of the next production stage.

[0031] Based on the oil production of the target well at the first time of the next production stage, the fitting relationship between the average characteristic oil production data of the reference well and the production time of the next production stage, and the oil production of the reference well at the first time of the next production stage, the oil production of the target well at each time within the production time of the predicted oil production of the next production stage is predicted. The oil production of the target well at the first time of the next production stage is the oil production of the last time of the adjacent previous production stage.

[0032] In some optional embodiments, the oil production of the target well at each time point within the production duration of the predicted oil production at the current production stage is predicted using the following formula:

[0033]

[0034] Among them, M1, M2, ..., M i The actual oil production data of the target well at time i in the current production stage; W1, W2, ..., W i Let be the oil production data of the reference well's average characteristic oil production change data for the first i time periods in the corresponding production stage; f(x) represents the fitting relationship between the reference well's average characteristic oil production change data for the reference well in the corresponding production stage and the production time of that stage; x represents time, y m This represents the predicted oil production of the target well.

[0035] The following formula is used to predict the oil production of the target well at each time point within the production duration of the predicted oil production in the next production phase:

[0036]

[0037] Where N1 is the oil production of the target well at the first time of the next production stage; U1 is the oil production of the reference well at the first time of the next production stage; f(x) is the fitting relationship between the reference well's average characteristic oil production data and the production time of the corresponding production stage in the next production stage; x represents time, y m This represents the predicted oil production of the target well.

[0038] Secondly, embodiments of the present invention provide a device for predicting the oil production of a fractured horizontal well in a shale oil reservoir, comprising:

[0039] The data processing module is used to determine the average characteristic oil production change data of a single well based on the oil production change data of the reference well; the reference wells are all fractured horizontal wells in the target block except for the target well; the current actual production time of the target well is not less than 6 months; the production time of the average characteristic oil production change data of a single well of the reference well is longer than the current actual production time of the target well.

[0040] The production stage segmentation module is used to determine, based on the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well, the N production stages included in the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well, and the oil production change characteristics of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in each production stage. The oil production change characteristics of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in each production stage include the stage production duration, the change trend of the average characteristic oil production of the reference well in each production stage, and the fitting relationship between the average characteristic oil production data of the reference well in each production stage and the production time of that stage. Based on the current actual production duration of the target well, the current actual oil production change data of the target well, and the oil production change characteristics of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in each production stage, the module determines the current production stage of the target well and the current actual production duration of that stage.

[0041] The production duration determination module is used to determine the production duration of the target well's predicted oil production based on the target well's current production stage, the actual production duration of that stage, and the oil production variation characteristics of the reference well's average single-well characteristic oil production data in each production stage. The production duration of the target well's predicted oil production includes the production duration of the predicted oil production in the target well's current production stage and the production duration of the predicted oil production in each subsequent production stage of the target well.

[0042] The oil production prediction module is used to predict the oil production of the target well within the production time of the target well based on the current actual oil production change data of the target well, the production time of the target well to be predicted, the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well, and the oil production change characteristics of the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well at each production stage.

[0043] This invention also provides a computer storage medium storing computer-executable instructions, which, when executed by a processor, implement the above-described method for predicting oil production from fractured horizontal wells in shale oil reservoirs.

[0044] This invention also provides a computer device, including: a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor. When the processor executes the program, it implements the above-mentioned method for predicting oil production from fractured horizontal wells in shale oil reservoirs.

[0045] The beneficial effects of the above-described technical solutions provided in the embodiments of the present invention include at least the following:

[0046] This method is based on oil production variation data from reference wells and target wells. When preparing data, this method only requires collecting oil production variation data from the reference and target wells, eliminating the need to collect geological parameters, thus reducing the workload of data collection. Based on the average characteristic oil production variation data of the reference wells, this data is divided into N production stages, and the oil production variation characteristics of the reference wells in each production stage are determined. These characteristics include the production duration of each stage, the trend of average characteristic oil production variation in each stage, and the fitting relationship between the average characteristic oil production data of each stage and the production time of that stage. Dividing the average characteristic oil production data of reference wells into production stages allows us to clearly understand the production duration of each production stage, the trend of average characteristic oil production in each production stage, and the fitting relationship between the average characteristic oil production data of each production stage and the production time of that stage.

[0047] Based on the current actual production duration of the target well, the current actual oil production change data of the target well, and the oil production change characteristics of the average characteristic oil production of the reference well at each production stage, the current production stage of the target well and the current actual production duration of that stage are determined. Based on the current production stage of the target well, the current actual production duration of that stage, and the oil production change characteristics of the average characteristic oil production of the reference well at each production stage, the production duration for which the target well's oil production is to be predicted is determined. Based on the current actual oil production change data of the target well, the production duration for which the target well's oil production is to be predicted, and the oil production change characteristics of the average characteristic oil production of the reference well at each production stage, the oil production of the target well within the production duration for which the oil production is to be predicted is predicted. The method presented in this paper can predict the oil production of fractured horizontal wells in shale oil reservoirs relatively simply and quickly.

[0048] Other features and advantages of the invention will be set forth in the description which follows, and will be apparent in part from the description, or may be learned by practicing the invention. The objects and other advantages of the invention may be realized and obtained by means of the structures particularly pointed out in the written description, claims, and drawings.

[0049] The technical solution of the present invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments. Attached Figure Description

[0050] The accompanying drawings are provided to further illustrate the invention and form part of the specification. They are used in conjunction with embodiments of the invention to explain the invention and do not constitute a limitation thereof. In the drawings:

[0051] Figure 1 This is a flowchart of the method for predicting oil production from fractured horizontal wells in shale oil reservoirs, as described in this invention.

[0052] Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of the monthly oil production variation data of the average characteristics of a single well in an embodiment of the present invention.

[0053] Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram showing the fitting relationship between the average characteristic oil production data of a single well in the first production stage and the production time of that stage, in an embodiment of the present invention.

[0054] Figure 4 This is a schematic diagram showing the fitting relationship between the average characteristic oil production data of a single well in the second production stage and the production time of that stage, in an embodiment of the present invention.

[0055] Figure 5 This is a schematic diagram showing the fitting relationship between the average characteristic oil production data of a single well in the third production stage and the production time of that stage, in an embodiment of the present invention.

[0056] Figure 6 This is a schematic diagram illustrating the current actual monthly oil production change data of the target well in this embodiment of the invention;

[0057] Figure 7 This is a graph showing the predicted oil production during the production time of the target well in the third production stage of the present invention.

[0058] Figure 8 This is a schematic diagram of the shale oil reservoir fracturing horizontal well production prediction device in the implementation of the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0059] Exemplary embodiments of the present disclosure will now be described in more detail with reference to the accompanying drawings. While exemplary embodiments of the present disclosure are shown in the drawings, it should be understood that the present disclosure may be implemented in various forms and should not be limited to the embodiments set forth herein. Rather, these embodiments are provided so that this disclosure will be thorough and complete, and will fully convey the scope of the disclosure to those skilled in the art.

[0060] Currently, reservoir numerical simulation is commonly used to predict oil production from shale oil reservoirs. However, reservoir numerical simulation is relatively labor-intensive and time-consuming.

[0061] In view of the above problems, embodiments of the present invention provide a method and apparatus for predicting the oil production of fractured horizontal wells in shale oil reservoirs. The method described herein can predict the oil production of fractured horizontal wells in shale oil reservoirs in a relatively simple and rapid manner.

[0062] This invention provides a method for predicting oil production from fractured horizontal wells in shale oil reservoirs, the process of which is as follows: Figure 1 As shown, it includes the following steps:

[0063] Step S101: Based on the oil production change data of the reference well, determine the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well; the reference well is all fractured horizontal wells in the target block except for the target well; the current actual production time of the target well is not less than 6 months; the production time of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well is greater than the current actual production time of the target well.

[0064] Step S102: Based on the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well, determine the N production stages included in the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well, and the oil production change characteristics of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in each production stage; the oil production change characteristics of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in each production stage include the stage production duration of each production stage, the trend of the average characteristic oil production change of each well in each production stage, and the fitting relationship between the average characteristic oil production data of each well in each production stage and the production time of that stage.

[0065] Step S103: Based on the current actual production time of the target well, the current actual oil production change data of the target well, and the oil production change characteristics of the average characteristic oil production of the reference well at each production stage, determine the current production stage of the target well and the current actual production time of that stage.

[0066] Step S104: Based on the current production stage of the target well and the actual production time of that stage, as well as the oil production change characteristics of the average single-well characteristic oil production data of the reference well in each production stage, determine the production time of the target well's expected oil production. The production time of the target well's expected oil production includes the production time of the expected oil production in the current production stage of the target well and the production time of the expected oil production in each subsequent production stage of the target well.

[0067] Step S105: Based on the current actual oil production change data of the target well, the production duration of the target well's expected oil production, the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well, and the oil production change characteristics of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well at each production stage, predict the oil production of the target well within the expected oil production duration.

[0068] Optionally, in step S101 above, determining the average characteristic oil production change data of a single well based on the oil production change data of the reference well includes:

[0069] The oil production change data of each reference well are aligned according to the production time. The average monthly oil production of each reference well after aligning the production time is determined, and the average characteristic monthly oil production change data of the reference well is obtained.

[0070] In step S101, both the target well and the reference well are oil wells, both are fractured horizontal wells, and both employ a depletion-type production method. The oil production variation data of the reference well can be monthly or daily. Correspondingly, the average characteristic oil production variation data for a single well can be monthly or daily. The oil production variation data of the reference well can be represented by curves, data tables, or other visual representations. Taking monthly oil production variation data as an example, the specific steps to determine the average characteristic monthly oil production variation data for a single well based on the monthly oil production variation data of the reference well are as follows: The monthly oil production variation data of each reference well is aligned according to its production start time. The average monthly oil production of the reference wells in each production month after alignment is calculated to obtain the average characteristic monthly oil production variation data for a single well. For example, assuming there are 5 reference wells, the monthly oil production change data of the 5 reference wells are aligned according to their commissioning time. The average characteristic monthly oil production change data of a single well in month j is the average monthly oil production of all reference wells that started production in month j after being aligned according to commissioning time. If 5 reference wells are in production in month j, the average characteristic monthly oil production change data of a single well in month j is the average monthly oil production of the 5 reference wells that started production in month j after being aligned according to commissioning time. If only 3 reference wells are in production in month j, the average characteristic monthly oil production change data of a single well in month j is the average monthly oil production of the 3 reference wells that started production in month j after being aligned according to commissioning time. By calculating the average characteristic monthly oil production change data of a single well for each reference well in each month using this method, the average characteristic monthly oil production change data of a single well for each reference well is obtained. In step S101, there are fracturing horizontal wells in the reference wells whose production duration is greater than the current actual production duration of the target well. In this embodiment, the reference wells refer to all fracturing horizontal wells within the target block, excluding the target well. Both the reference wells and the target well are oil wells, both are fracturing horizontal wells, and both employ a depletion-type production method. The current actual production duration of the target well is not less than 6 months; the production duration of the reference well's average characteristic oil production change data is greater than the current actual production duration of the target well.

[0071] The production duration of the average characteristic oil production change data of a single reference well is equal to the production duration of the reference well with the longest production duration. For example, assuming there are a total of 5 reference wells, and the production durations of the 5 reference wells are 8 months, 8 months, 9 months, 10 months and 15 months respectively, the production duration of the average characteristic oil production change data of a single reference well is 15 months.

[0072] A schematic diagram of the monthly oil production variation data of the average characteristics of a single well in the reference well is shown below. Figure 2 As shown, the production duration of the reference well's average characteristic oil production variation data is 138 months. Figure 2 The figure depicts the average monthly characteristic oil production of the reference wells corresponding to each production month.

[0073] Optionally, in step S102 above, determining the N production stages included in the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well, and the oil production change characteristics of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in each production stage, based on the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well, may include:

[0074] Based on the variation data of the average characteristic oil production of reference wells, the variation trend of the average characteristic oil production of reference wells with production time is determined. Based on the variation trend of the average characteristic oil production of reference wells with production time, the variation data of the average characteristic oil production of reference wells is divided into N production stages, and the stage production duration and the variation trend of the average characteristic oil production of reference wells in each production stage are determined. The average characteristic oil production of reference wells in each production stage is then fitted with the production time of that stage.

[0075] by Figure 2 Taking the monthly oil production variation data of the reference well's single-well average characteristics as an example, it is possible to... Figure 2The study concluded that the variation trend of the average characteristic oil production of the reference well over production time can be divided into three stages: the first five months show an upward trend in monthly oil production; the fifth to eighth months show a relatively stable monthly oil production; and the eighth to the 138th month show a downward trend in monthly oil production. Therefore, the variation data of the average characteristic oil production of the reference well can be divided into three production stages, and the oil production variation characteristics of the reference well in each production stage can be determined. These characteristics include the production duration of each stage, the trend of the average characteristic oil production of the reference well in each stage, and the fitting relationship between the average characteristic oil production of the reference well in each stage and the production time of that stage. Table 1 can be used to represent the oil production variation characteristics of the reference well in each production stage, using monthly oil production as an example.

[0076] Table 1

[0077]

[0078] by Figure 2 Based on the monthly oil production variation data of the single-well average characteristics of the reference well, the fitting relationship between the single-well average characteristic oil production variation data of the reference well and the production time of the first production stage is as follows: Figure 3 As shown, the average characteristic oil production of a single well is expressed in monthly oil production, and the production time of the first production stage is expressed in months. Figure 3 The fitting relationship between the average characteristic oil production data of the reference well in the first production stage and the production time of that stage can be obtained as y = 60.399x - 2.7104, where y represents the monthly oil production and x represents the production month of the first production stage. Based on the above steps for determining the fitting relationship between the average characteristic oil production data of the reference well in the first production stage and the production time of that stage, the fitting relationship between the average characteristic monthly oil production data of the reference well in the second and third production stages and the production time of that stage can be determined. The fitting relationship between the average characteristic oil production data of the reference well in the second production stage and the production time of that stage is as follows: Figure 4 As shown, the fitting relationship between the average characteristic oil production data of the reference well in the third production stage and the production time of that stage is as follows: Figure 5 As shown.

[0079] Optionally, in step S103 above, based on the current actual production time of the target well, the current actual oil production change data of the target well, and the oil production change characteristics of the average characteristic oil production of the reference well at each production stage, the current production stage of the target well and the current actual production time of that stage are determined, including:

[0080] Based on the current actual production time and the current actual oil production change data of the target well, determine the trend of the current actual oil production change data of the target well with production time; match the trend of the current actual oil production change data of the target well with the trend of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well with production time to determine the current production stage of the target well and the current actual production time of that stage.

[0081] After aligning the monthly oil production change data of the target wells according to their commissioning time, the current actual monthly oil production change data of the target wells is as follows: Figure 6 As shown. The current actual production duration of the target well is 21 months, from... Figure 6 The current actual monthly oil production data of the target well shows an increasing trend in monthly oil production from month 1 to month 9, a relatively stable trend from month 9 to month 15, and a decreasing trend from month 15 to month 21. Therefore, the target well's production stage is divided into three stages, and the target well is currently in the third production stage. Whether using the average characteristic oil production data of the reference well or the target well, the oil production of the last month of the preceding production stage should be used as the oil production of the first month of the following production stage. It is important to note that if the current actual oil production data of the target well does not follow the trend of the average characteristic oil production data of the reference well over production time, the method presented in this paper is not suitable for predicting the oil production of that target well.

[0082] Optionally, in step S104 above, the production duration of the target well's predicted oil production is determined based on the current production stage of the target well, the actual production duration of that stage, and the oil production variation characteristics of the average characteristic oil production of the reference well in each production stage. This includes:

[0083] Based on the actual production time of the target well in its current production stage and the stage production time of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in the corresponding production stage, the production time of the predicted oil production in the current production stage of the target well is determined.

[0084] If the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well still has subsequent production stages, the stage production duration of each subsequent production stage of the target well is determined based on the stage production duration of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in each subsequent production stage.

[0085] Optionally, based on the actual production duration of the target well's current production stage and the stage production duration of the reference well's average characteristic oil production change data in the corresponding production stage, the production duration of the target well's current production stage to be predicted is determined, including:

[0086] Based on the current production stage of the target well, obtain the stage production duration of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in the corresponding production stage; use the stage production duration of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in the corresponding production stage as the stage production duration of the current production stage of the target well.

[0087] The difference between the current production stage duration of the target well and the actual production duration of the current production stage is determined, and this difference is defined as the production duration for the predicted oil production of the target well in its current production stage. It is important to note that if the actual production duration of the target well's current production stage is longer than the production stage duration of the reference well's average characteristic oil production change data in the corresponding production stage, the method presented in this paper is not suitable for predicting the oil production of that target well.

[0088] Optionally, if the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well still has subsequent production stages, the production duration of the target well's subsequent production stages is determined based on the stage production duration of the reference well's average characteristic oil production change data in each subsequent production stage, including:

[0089] When the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well still has subsequent production stages, the production duration of each subsequent production stage of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well is used as the production duration of the expected oil production of the target well in each subsequent corresponding production stage.

[0090] according to Figure 6As shown, the target well's production stage is divided into three stages, and the target well is currently in the third production stage. The stage production duration of the reference well's average characteristic oil production change data within the corresponding production stage can be used as the stage production duration of the target well's current production stage. The actual production duration of the target well in the third production stage is 7 months. From Table 1, the stage production duration of the reference well's average characteristic oil production change data in the third production stage is 131 months. Therefore, the stage production duration of the target well in the third production stage is 131 months. The predicted production duration of the target well in the third production stage is 124 months.

[0091] If the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well still has subsequent production stages, the stage production duration of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in each subsequent production stage will be used as the stage production duration of the corresponding subsequent production stages of the target well. The production duration of the target well's predicted oil production includes the production duration of the predicted oil production in the current production stage of the target well and the stage production duration of each subsequent production stage of the target well. In this embodiment, taking the oil production change characteristics of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in Table 1 in each production stage as an example, the production duration of the predicted oil production in the third production stage of the target well is determined. Since the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in Table 1 only has 3 production stages, the production duration of the predicted oil production up to the third production stage of the target well is determined.

[0092] Optionally, in step S105 above, based on the current actual oil production change data of the target well, the production duration of the target well's expected oil production, the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well, and the oil production change characteristics of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well at each production stage, the oil production of the target well within the expected production duration is predicted, including:

[0093] Based on the current production stage of the target well, obtain the fitting relationship between the average characteristic oil production data of the reference well in the corresponding production stage and the production time of that stage, and the average characteristic oil production data of the reference well in the corresponding production stage.

[0094] Based on the actual oil production data of the target well at its current production stage, the fitting relationship between the average characteristic oil production data of the reference well at the corresponding production stage and the production time of that stage, and the average characteristic oil production data of the reference well at the corresponding production stage, the oil production of the target well at each time point within the production time of the expected oil production at its current production stage is predicted.

[0095] When the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well still has subsequent production stages, the oil production of the target well is predicted sequentially according to the chronological order of the production stages, for each time period within the production duration of the expected oil production in each subsequent production stage. The prediction process for the oil production of the target well at each time period within the production duration of the expected oil production in each subsequent production stage is as follows:

[0096] When the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well still has another production stage, obtain the fitting relationship between the average characteristic oil production data of the reference well in the next production stage and the production time of that production stage, and the oil production of the reference well at the first time of the next production stage.

[0097] Based on the oil production of the target well at the first time of the next production stage, the fitting relationship between the average characteristic oil production data of the reference well and the production time of the next production stage, and the oil production of the reference well at the first time of the next production stage, the oil production of the target well at each time within the production time of the predicted oil production of the next production stage is predicted. The oil production of the target well at the first time of the next production stage is the oil production of the last time of the adjacent previous production stage.

[0098] Optionally, the oil production of the target well at each time point within the production duration of the predicted oil production at its current production stage can be predicted using the following formula:

[0099]

[0100] Among them, M1, M2, ..., M i The actual oil production data of the target well at time i in the current production stage; W1, W2, ..., W i Let be the oil production data of the reference well's average characteristic oil production change data for the first i time periods in the corresponding production stage; f(x) represents the fitting relationship between the reference well's average characteristic oil production change data for the reference well in the corresponding production stage and the production time of that stage; x represents time, y m This represents the predicted oil production of the target well.

[0101] In the formula above, when M takes the values ​​M1, ..., M... i At the same time, W also takes the oil production data of the reference well's single-well average characteristic oil production change data in the first i time periods of the corresponding production stage, i.e., W1, ..., W2. i .

[0102] The following formula is used to predict the oil production of the target well at each time point within the production duration of the predicted oil production in the next production phase:

[0103]

[0104] Where N1 is the oil production of the target well at the first time of the next production stage; U1 is the oil production of the reference well at the first time of the next production stage; f(x) is the fitting relationship between the reference well's average characteristic oil production data and the production time of the corresponding production stage in the next production stage; x represents time, y m This represents the predicted oil production of the target well.

[0105] Whether it is the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well or the target well, the oil production of the last time of the previous production stage in two adjacent production stages should be used as the oil production of the first time of the next production stage.

[0106] Step S104 above determines the production duration of the target well's expected oil production. Taking the production duration of the target well's expected oil production determined above as an example, the production duration of the target well's expected oil production in the third production stage is 124 months, and the actual production duration of the target well in the third production stage is 7 months. The third production stage of the target well is from month 15 to month 145, where the oil production in the first 7 months, i.e., month 15 to month 21, is the known actual oil production data. When predicting the oil production of the target well within the expected oil production duration of the third production stage, the fitting relationship between the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well and the single-well average characteristic oil production data in the third production stage and the production time of this stage is y = -0.0001x. 3 +0.0407x 2 -4.9362x+291.65, where y can be represented by f(x). Given the actual monthly oil production data of the target well during the first 7 months of the third production stage (M1, M2, M3, M4, M5, M6, M7), obtain the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well during the first 7 months of the third production stage (W1, W2, W3, W4, W5, W6, W7). Based on the formula... The monthly oil production of the target well during the production duration of the predicted oil production in the third production stage, y. mThis represents the predicted monthly oil production of the target well in the third production stage, and x represents time. It can be understood as predicting the monthly oil production of the target well from the 8th month to the 131st month in the third production stage. So x can be taken as 8, 9, ..., 131, which can predict the monthly oil production of the target well in each month within the production period of the oil production to be predicted in the third production stage.

[0107] In this embodiment, if the reference well's average characteristic oil production change data indicates a fourth production stage, and the target well is currently in its third production stage, then after the oil production of the target well during the predicted production period in the third production stage is predicted, the monthly oil production of the target well in the first month of the fourth production stage is the same as the monthly oil production of the target well in the last month of the third production stage. When predicting the monthly oil production of the target well in the second month of the fourth production stage and in subsequent months, the formula is used... The project predicts the monthly oil production of the target well in the second month of the fourth production stage and the months following the fourth production stage. N1 represents the monthly oil production of the target well in the first month of the fourth production stage, and U1 represents the monthly oil production of the reference well in the first month of the fourth production stage, based on the average monthly characteristic oil production variation data of the reference well. Whether using the average monthly characteristic oil production variation data of the reference well or the target well, the oil production of the last month of the preceding production stage should be used as the oil production of the first month of the following production stage.

[0108] The predicted oil production during the production duration of the third production stage of the target well is as follows: Figure 7 As shown, the data predicts the oil production changes of the target well from month 22 to month 145. The method presented in this paper can predict the oil production of fractured horizontal wells in shale oil reservoirs relatively simply and quickly.

[0109] Based on the same inventive concept, this invention also provides a device for predicting the oil production of fractured horizontal wells in shale oil reservoirs. This device can be installed in a device capable of processing computer instructions, and its structure is as follows. Figure 8 As shown, it includes:

[0110] Data processing module 21 is used to determine the average characteristic oil production change data of a single well based on the oil production change data of the reference well; wherein, the reference well is all fractured horizontal wells in the target block except for the target well; the current actual production time of the target well is not less than 6 months; the production time of the average characteristic oil production change data of a single well of the reference well is greater than the current actual production time of the target well.

[0111] The production stage segmentation module 22 is used to determine, based on the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well, the N production stages included in the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well, and the oil production change characteristics of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in each production stage. The oil production change characteristics of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in each production stage include the stage production duration of each production stage, the change trend of the average characteristic oil production of the reference well in each production stage, and the fitting relationship between the average characteristic oil production data of the reference well in each production stage and the production time of that stage. Based on the current actual production duration of the target well, the current actual oil production change data of the target well, and the oil production change characteristics of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in each production stage, the current production stage of the target well and the current actual production duration of that stage are determined.

[0112] The production duration determination module 23 is used to determine the production duration of the target well's expected oil production based on the current production stage of the target well, the actual production duration of that stage, and the oil production variation characteristics of the average characteristic oil production of the reference well in each production stage. The production duration of the target well's expected oil production includes the production duration of the expected oil production in the current production stage of the target well and the production duration of the expected oil production in each subsequent production stage of the target well.

[0113] The oil production prediction module 24 is used to predict the oil production of the target well within the production time of the target well based on the current actual oil production change data of the target well, the production time of the target well to be predicted, the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well, and the oil production change characteristics of the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well at each production stage.

[0114] Regarding the shale oil reservoir fracturing horizontal well production prediction device in the above embodiments, the specific operation methods of each module have been described in detail in the embodiments of the relevant method, and will not be elaborated here.

[0115] The method and apparatus described in this invention are based on oil production change data from reference wells and target wells. When preparing data, only the oil production change data from reference wells and target wells need to be collected, without needing to collect geological parameters, thus reducing the workload of data collection. Based on the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference wells, the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference wells is divided into N production stages, and the oil production change characteristics of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference wells in each production stage are determined. The oil production change characteristics of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference wells in each production stage include the stage production duration, the trend of the average characteristic oil production change of the reference wells in each production stage, and the fitting relationship between the average characteristic oil production data of the reference wells in each production stage and the production time of that stage. Dividing the average characteristic oil production data of reference wells into production stages allows us to clearly understand the production duration of each production stage, the trend of average characteristic oil production in each production stage, and the fitting relationship between the average characteristic oil production data of each production stage and the production time of that stage.

[0116] Based on the current actual production duration of the target well, the current actual oil production change data of the target well, and the oil production change characteristics of the average characteristic oil production of the reference well at each production stage, the current production stage of the target well and the current actual production duration of that stage are determined. Based on the current production stage of the target well, the current actual production duration of that stage, and the oil production change characteristics of the average characteristic oil production of the reference well at each production stage, the production duration for which the target well's production is to be predicted is determined. Based on the current actual oil production change data of the target well, the production duration for which the target well's production is to be predicted, and the oil production change characteristics of the average characteristic oil production of the reference well at each production stage, the oil production of the target well within the predicted production duration is predicted. The method presented in this paper can predict the oil production of fractured horizontal wells in shale oil reservoirs relatively simply and quickly.

[0117] This invention also provides a computer storage medium storing computer-executable instructions, which, when executed by a processor, implement the above-described method for predicting oil production from fractured horizontal wells in shale oil reservoirs.

[0118] This invention also provides a computer device, including: a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor. When the processor executes the program, it implements the above-mentioned method for predicting oil production from fractured horizontal wells in shale oil reservoirs.

[0119] Unless otherwise specifically stated, terms such as processing, calculation, operation, determination, display, etc., may refer to the actions and / or processes of one or more processing or computing systems or similar devices that represent the manipulation and conversion of data representing physical (e.g., electronic) quantities within the registers or memory of the processing system into other data similarly representing physical quantities within the memory, registers, or other such information storage, transmission, or display devices of the processing system. Information and signals can be represented using any of a variety of different techniques and methods. For example, data, instructions, commands, information, signals, bits, symbols, and chips mentioned throughout the above description can be represented by voltage, current, electromagnetic waves, magnetic fields or particles, light fields or particles, or any combination thereof.

[0120] It should be understood that the specific order or hierarchy of steps in the disclosed process is an example of an exemplary method. Based on design preferences, it should be understood that the specific order or hierarchy of steps in the process may be rearranged without departing from the scope of this disclosure. The appended method claims provide elements of various steps in an exemplary order and are not intended to limit the scope to the specific order or hierarchy described.

[0121] In the detailed description above, various features are combined together in a single embodiment to simplify this disclosure. This approach to disclosure should not be construed as reflecting an intention that embodiments of the claimed subject matter require more features than are explicitly stated in each claim. Rather, as reflected in the appended claims, the invention is presented with fewer features than all of the features in a single disclosed embodiment. Therefore, the appended claims are hereby explicitly incorporated into the detailed description, with each claim representing a separate preferred embodiment of the invention.

[0122] Those skilled in the art will also understand that the various illustrative logic blocks, modules, circuits, and algorithm steps described in conjunction with the embodiments herein can be implemented as electronic hardware, computer software, or a combination thereof. To clearly illustrate the interchangeability between hardware and software, the various illustrative components, blocks, modules, circuits, and steps described above are generally described in terms of their functionality. Whether such functionality is implemented as hardware or software depends on the specific application and the design constraints imposed on the overall system. Those skilled in the art can implement the described functionality in alternative ways for each specific application; however, such implementation decisions should not be construed as departing from the scope of this disclosure.

[0123] The steps of the methods or algorithms described in conjunction with the embodiments herein can be directly embodied in hardware, software modules executed by a processor, or a combination thereof. The software modules can reside in RAM memory, flash memory, ROM memory, EPROM memory, EEPROM memory, registers, hard disks, removable disks, CD-ROMs, or any other form of storage medium well known in the art. An exemplary storage medium is connected to the processor, enabling the processor to read information from and write information to the storage medium. Of course, the storage medium can also be a component of the processor. The processor and storage medium can reside in an ASIC. The ASIC can reside in a user terminal. Alternatively, the processor and storage medium can exist as discrete components in the user terminal.

[0124] For software implementation, the techniques described in this application can be implemented using modules (e.g., procedures, functions, etc.) that perform the functions described in this application. This software code can be stored in memory units and executed by a processor. The memory units can be implemented within the processor or outside the processor; in the latter case, they are communicatively coupled to the processor via various means, as is well known in the art.

[0125] The foregoing description includes examples of one or more embodiments. It is certainly impossible to describe all possible combinations of components or methods in order to describe the above embodiments, but those skilled in the art will recognize that further combinations and arrangements of the various embodiments are possible. Therefore, the embodiments described herein are intended to cover all such changes, modifications, and variations that fall within the scope of the appended claims. Furthermore, the term "comprising" as used in the specification or claims is interpreted in a manner similar to the term "including," as interpreted when used as a conjunction in the claims. Additionally, the use of any term "or" in the specification of the claims is intended to mean "non-exclusive or."

Claims

1. A method for predicting oil production from fractured horizontal wells in shale oil reservoirs, characterized in that, include: Based on the oil production change data of the reference well, determine the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well. The reference wells are all fractured horizontal wells within the target block except for the target well; the current actual production duration of the target well is not less than 6 months; the production duration of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well is greater than the current actual production duration of the target well; Based on the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well, determine the N production stages included in the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well, and the oil production change characteristics of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in each production stage. The oil production variation characteristics of the reference well's single-well average characteristic oil production data in each production stage include the stage production duration of each production stage, the trend of single-well average characteristic oil production variation in each production stage, and the fitting relationship between the single-well average characteristic oil production data in each production stage and the production time of that stage. Based on the current actual production time of the target well, the current actual oil production change data of the target well, and the oil production change characteristics of the average characteristic oil production of the reference well at each production stage, determine the current production stage of the target well and the current actual production time of that stage. Based on the current production stage of the target well and the actual production time of that stage, as well as the oil production change characteristics of the average single-well characteristic oil production data of the reference well in each production stage, the production time of the target well to be predicted oil production is determined. The production time of the target well to be predicted oil production includes the production time of the target well to be predicted oil production in the current production stage and the production time of the target well to be predicted oil production in each subsequent production stage. Based on the current actual oil production change data of the target well, the production duration of the target well to be predicted, the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well, and the oil production change characteristics of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well at each production stage, the oil production of the target well within the production duration of the to be predicted oil production is predicted.

2. The method for predicting oil production from fractured horizontal wells in shale oil reservoirs as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The process of determining the N production stages included in the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well based on the single-well average characteristic oil production change data, and the oil production change characteristics of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in each production stage, includes: Based on the variation data of the average characteristic oil production of a single well in the reference well, the variation trend of the average characteristic oil production of a single well in the reference well with production time is determined. Based on the variation trend of the average characteristic oil production of the reference well with production time, the average characteristic oil production of the reference well is divided into N production stages, and the production duration of each production stage and the variation trend of the average characteristic oil production of the reference well in each production stage are determined. The average characteristic oil production data of the reference well was fitted with the average characteristic oil production data of the reference well in each production stage and the production time of that stage to obtain the fitting relationship between the average characteristic oil production data of the reference well and the production time of that stage.

3. The method for predicting oil production from fractured horizontal wells in shale oil reservoirs as described in any one of claims 1-2, characterized in that, Based on the current actual production duration of the target well, the current actual oil production change data of the target well, and the oil production change characteristics of the average characteristic oil production of reference wells at each production stage, determine the current production stage of the target well and the current actual production duration of that stage, including: Based on the current actual production time and the current actual oil production change data of the target well, determine the trend of the current actual oil production change data of the target well with production time; By correlating the trend of the actual oil production change data of the target well with the change of production time with the trend of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well with the change of production time, the current production stage of the target well and the actual production time of the current stage can be determined.

4. The method for predicting oil production from fractured horizontal wells in shale oil reservoirs as described in claim 1, characterized in that, Based on the current production stage of the target well, the actual production duration of that stage, and the production variation characteristics of the average single-well characteristic oil production of the reference well in each production stage, the production duration for predicting the oil production of the target well is determined, including: Based on the actual production time of the target well in its current production stage and the stage production time of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in the corresponding production stage, the production time of the predicted oil production in the current production stage of the target well is determined. If the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well still has subsequent production stages, the production duration of the expected oil production in each subsequent production stage of the target well is determined based on the stage production duration of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in each subsequent production stage.

5. The method for predicting oil production from fractured horizontal wells in shale oil reservoirs as described in claim 4, characterized in that, The process of determining the production duration of the target well's current production stage based on the actual production duration of the target well and the stage production duration of the reference well's average characteristic oil production change data in the corresponding production stage includes: Based on the current production stage of the target well, obtain the stage production duration of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in the corresponding production stage; use the stage production duration of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in the corresponding production stage as the stage production duration of the current production stage of the target well. The difference between the current production stage duration of the target well and the actual production duration of the current production stage is determined, and the difference is determined as the production duration of the predicted oil production of the current production stage of the target well.

6. The method for predicting oil production from fractured horizontal wells in shale oil reservoirs as described in claim 4, characterized in that, When the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well still has subsequent production stages, the production duration of the target well's subsequent production stages is determined based on the stage production duration of the reference well's average characteristic oil production change data in each subsequent production stage, including: When the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well still has subsequent production stages, the production duration of each subsequent production stage of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well is used as the production duration of the expected oil production of the target well in each subsequent corresponding production stage.

7. The method for predicting oil production from fractured horizontal wells in shale oil reservoirs as described in claim 1, characterized in that, Based on the current actual oil production change data of the target well, the production duration of the target well to be predicted, the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well, and the oil production change characteristics of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well at each production stage, the oil production of the target well within the production duration to be predicted is predicted, including: Based on the current production stage of the target well, obtain the fitting relationship between the average characteristic oil production data of the reference well in the corresponding production stage and the production time of that stage, and the average characteristic oil production data of the reference well in the corresponding production stage. Based on the actual oil production data of the target well at its current production stage, the fitting relationship between the average characteristic oil production data of the reference well at the corresponding production stage and the production time of that stage, and the average characteristic oil production data of the reference well at the corresponding production stage, the oil production of the target well at each time point within the production time of the expected oil production at its current production stage is predicted. When the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well still has subsequent production stages, the oil production of the target well is predicted sequentially according to the chronological order of the production stages, for each time period within the production duration of the expected oil production in each subsequent production stage. The prediction process for the oil production of the target well at each time period within the production duration of the expected oil production in each subsequent production stage is as follows: When the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well still has another production stage, obtain the fitting relationship between the average characteristic oil production data of the reference well in the next production stage and the production time of that production stage, and the oil production of the reference well at the first time of the next production stage. Based on the oil production of the target well at the first time of the next production stage, the fitting relationship between the average characteristic oil production data of the reference well and the production time of the next production stage, and the oil production of the reference well at the first time of the next production stage, the oil production of the target well at each time within the production time of the predicted oil production of the next production stage is predicted. The oil production of the target well at the first time of the next production stage is the oil production of the last time of the adjacent previous production stage.

8. The method for predicting oil production from fractured horizontal wells in shale oil reservoirs as described in claim 7, characterized in that, The following formula is used to predict the oil production of the target well at each time point within the production duration of the predicted oil production at its current production stage: Among them, M1, M2, ..., M i The actual oil production data of the target well at time i in the current production stage; W1, W2, ..., W i Let be the oil production data of the reference well's average characteristic oil production change data for the first i time periods in the corresponding production stage; f(x) represents the fitting relationship between the reference well's average characteristic oil production change data for the reference well in the corresponding production stage and the production time of that stage; x represents time, y m This represents the predicted oil production of the target well.

9. The method for predicting oil production from fractured horizontal wells in shale oil reservoirs as described in claim 7, characterized in that, The following formula is used to predict the oil production of the target well at each time point within the production duration of the predicted oil production in the next production phase: Where N1 is the oil production of the target well at the first time of the next production stage; U1 is the oil production of the reference well at the first time of the next production stage; f(x) is the fitting relationship between the reference well's average characteristic oil production data and the production time of the corresponding production stage; x represents time, y m This represents the predicted oil production of the target well.

10. A device for predicting oil production in a fractured horizontal well of a shale oil reservoir, characterized in that, include: The data processing module is used to determine the average characteristic oil production change data of a single well based on the oil production change data of the reference well. The reference wells are all fractured horizontal wells within the target block except for the target well; the current actual production duration of the target well is not less than 6 months; the production duration of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well is greater than the current actual production duration of the target well; The production stage segmentation module is used to determine the N production stages included in the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well, and the oil production change characteristics of the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well in each production stage, based on the average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well. The oil production variation characteristics of the reference well's single-well average characteristic oil production data in each production stage include the stage production duration of each production stage, the trend of single-well average characteristic oil production variation in each production stage, and the fitting relationship between the single-well average characteristic oil production data in each production stage and the production time of that stage. Based on the current actual production time of the target well, the current actual oil production change data of the target well, and the oil production change characteristics of the average characteristic oil production of the reference well at each production stage, determine the current production stage of the target well and the current actual production time of that stage. The production duration determination module is used to determine the production duration of the target well's expected oil production based on the target well's current production stage, the actual production duration of that stage, and the oil production variation characteristics of the reference well's average single-well characteristic oil production data in each production stage. The production duration of the target well's predicted oil production includes the production duration of the predicted oil production in the current production stage of the target well and the production duration of the predicted oil production in each subsequent production stage of the target well. The oil production prediction module is used to predict the oil production of the target well within the production time of the target well based on the current actual oil production change data of the target well, the production time of the target well to be predicted, the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well, and the oil production change characteristics of the single-well average characteristic oil production change data of the reference well at each production stage.

11. A computer storage medium, characterized in that, The computer storage medium stores computer-executable instructions, which, when executed by a processor, implement the oil production prediction method for fracturing horizontal wells in shale oil reservoirs as described in any one of claims 1-9.

12. A computer device, characterized in that, include: A memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor, when executing the program, implements the method for predicting oil production from fractured horizontal wells in shale oil reservoirs as described in any one of claims 1-9.

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