Method and device for forecasting spare parts demand of weather radar based on life simulation

By constructing an optimal lifespan distribution model and Monte Carlo simulation, the problems of low utilization rate and high inventory risk in the management of weather radar spare parts were solved, enabling more accurate spare parts demand forecasting and management, and improving spare parts utilization efficiency.

CN122264356APending Publication Date: 2026-06-23CMA METEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATION CENT
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Patent Information

Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Applications(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
CMA METEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATION CENT
Filing Date
2026-02-12
Publication Date
2026-06-23

AI Technical Summary

Technical Problem

The current management of spare parts for weather radar relies on personnel experience, resulting in low spare parts utilization, risk of stagnant inventory, and a lack of scientific and intelligent management.

Method used

By using a lifespan simulation-based approach, an optimal lifespan distribution model is constructed. Monte Carlo simulation is then used to predict spare parts demand, including Weibull distribution, exponential distribution, log-normal distribution, and normal distribution. A forecasting model and calculation process for the demand of weather radar spare parts are then established.

Benefits of technology

It improves the quantitative calculation capability of spare parts demand forecasting, reduces the risk of obsolete inventory, and enhances spare parts utilization and management sophistication.

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Abstract

Embodiments of the present disclosure provide a weather radar spare parts demand prediction method and device based on life simulation, applied to the technical field of weather radar. The method comprises obtaining weather radar spare part failure data; based on a preset life distribution type, an optimal life distribution model is constructed according to the spare part failure data, and the preset life distribution type includes Weibull distribution, exponential distribution, lognormal distribution and normal distribution; based on Monte Carlo simulation simulation, spare part demand simulation prediction is carried out according to the optimal life distribution model, and the demand prediction result of the spare part is obtained. In this way, a radar spare part demand prediction model and calculation process based on life simulation can be established, the demand result of the spare part can be effectively obtained, the quantitative calculation ability of spare part demand prediction analysis can be improved, the utilization rate of spare parts can be effectively improved, and the risk of idle inventory can be reduced.
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