Facility operation plan support device and facility operation plan support method

Abstract

To provide a facility operation plan support device that supports a business operator to make the most of an emission right and an environment value granted to the operator.SOLUTION: A facility operation plan support device includes: a scenario prediction unit that predicts, on the basis of a past energy demand result value, past weather information, and a past market energy price, future energy demand; a transaction demand prediction unit that predicts, on the basis of the predicted future energy demand, the past energy demand performance value, the past weather information, the past market energy price, weather forecast information, a past environment value transaction result, and energy price information, an environmental value demand prediction value; a parameter setting unit that sets, on the basis of the environment value demand prediction value, a transaction parameter for formulating a facility operation plan; and a plan formulation unit that formulates, on the basis of the transaction parameter, the facility operation plan.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

[Technical field]

[0001] The present invention relates to a facility operation plan support device and a facility operation plan support method. [Background technology]

[0002] In recent years, the use of natural energy sources such as solar power and wind power has been increasing around the world in an effort to reduce carbon dioxide (hereinafter referred to as CO2) emissions and, in the future, to realize a carbon-neutral society in which the amount of CO2 emitted is equal to the amount of CO2 captured. However, it is not easy to keep the output of natural energy constant, and the increased use of natural energy has led to destabilization of the power grid.

[0003] One method to stabilize the power grid is to convert surplus natural energy generation relative to power demand into hydrogen and store it. Also, for generators that previously used fossil fuels to generate electricity, studies are underway to reduce exhaust gas emissions by including hydrogen in part of the fuel, and furthermore, to reduce CO2 emissions into the atmosphere to zero by reusing the CO2 and moisture in the exhaust gas as fuel to generate electricity.

[0004] In the future, the use of natural energy sources such as solar power generation will become more widespread, and low-emission power generation devices are expected to be considered and introduced, making it necessary to operate and manage an integrated grid that includes not only electricity but also gas operation and management.In addition to using hydrogen storage vehicles, other methods of transporting hydrogen are being considered, such as injecting hydrogen into existing methane gas pipelines and transporting the fuel, or building new pipelines for hydrogen.

[0005] Here, in order to manage the operation of the integrated grid, it is important not only to consider system constraints and the environment, but also to avoid imposing burdens on the businesses (gas / electricity consumers) that are the targets of the integrated grid operation, and to avoid impeding the achievement of KPIs (Key Performance Indicators). Therefore, the operation of the integrated grid requires the ability to formulate plans that can gain the consent of businesses.

[0006] Furthermore, in order to promote the use of natural energy and hydrogen, which has a low environmental impact, the introduction of systems such as J-Credit and Carbon Credit is being considered. These systems are mechanisms that make it possible to sell the anticipated reduction in exhaust gas emissions by introducing equipment with a low environmental impact to other energy consumers and businesses as emission credits and environmental value.

[0007] Each business is given an allowable amount of exhaust gas emissions for a certain period of time (for example, one year) by a third-party organization and is required to operate its equipment within that allowable amount, and if it exceeds that amount, it is required to purchase environmental value such as J-credits or carbon credits from other businesses. On the other hand, businesses that introduce equipment with a low environmental impact are able to sell environmental value for a certain period of time in proportion to the amount of emissions reduced by the introduction of that equipment. The allowable amount of emissions, emission credits, and environmental value are reviewed at regular intervals.

[0008] Regarding the buying and selling of emission rights, for example, Patent Document 1 describes an energy buying and selling device that includes: "a purchased power amount grasping unit that grasps a purchased power amount, which is the amount of electricity purchased from an electricity seller that has a power generation facility and generates electricity; an emission rights calculation unit that calculates CO2 emission rights corresponding to the purchased power amount grasped by the purchased power amount grasping unit; and a fuel amount calculation unit that calculates an amount of fuel corresponding to the CO2 emission rights calculated by the emission rights calculation unit." [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0009] [Patent Document 1] JP 2020-80043 A Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0010] According to the technology described in Patent Document 1, even those who own power generation facilities but do not use much electricity can enjoy benefits. However, on the other hand, since it does not take into consideration trading according to demand for emission credits and environmental value within the specified period for which the emission allowance and emission credits are granted, there is a possibility that the granted emission credits and environmental value are not traded to the maximum extent.

[0011] The present invention has been made in consideration of the above-mentioned points, and has an object to enable businesses to make the most effective use of the emission credits and environmental value granted to them. [Means for solving the problem]

[0012] The present application includes a number of means for solving at least some of the above-mentioned problems, examples of which are as follows.

[0013] In order to solve the above-mentioned problems, an equipment operation plan support device according to one embodiment of the present invention is an equipment operation plan support device that supports equipment operation plans of a target business operator, and is configured by a computer having one or more arithmetic devices, one or more memory resources, and one or more storage devices, and is characterized in that the arithmetic device has a scenario prediction unit that predicts future energy demand based on past energy demand actual values, past weather information, and past market energy prices, a transaction demand prediction unit that predicts an environmental value demand forecast value based on the predicted future energy demand, the past energy demand actual values, the past weather information, the past market energy prices, weather forecast information, past environmental value trading results, and energy price information, a parameter setting unit that sets transaction parameters for formulating an equipment operation plan based on the environmental value demand forecast value, and a plan formulation unit that formulates the equipment operation plan based on the transaction parameters. Effect of the Invention

[0014] According to the present invention, the emission credits and environmental value granted to the business operator can be utilized as effectively as possible.

[0015] Problems, configurations, and effects other than those described above will become apparent from the following description of the embodiments. [Brief description of the drawings]

[0016] [Figure 1] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of the configuration of a facility operation plan supporting device according to a first embodiment of the present invention. [Diagram 2] FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating an example of the configuration of the transaction demand forecasting unit in the first embodiment. [Diagram 3] FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating an example of the configuration of the plan development unit in the first embodiment. [Figure 4] FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating an example of the peripheral configuration of the facility operation plan supporting device. [Diagram 5] FIG. 5 is a flowchart illustrating an example of an equipment operation plan support process by the equipment operation plan support device in the first embodiment. [Figure 6] FIG. 6 is a diagram illustrating an example of a process flow related to the facility operation plan support device in the first embodiment. [Figure 7] FIG. 7 is a diagram showing an example of transaction parameters based on a prediction of the transaction demand degree. [Figure 8] FIG. 8 is a diagram showing an example of the configuration of a facility operation plan supporting device according to the second embodiment of the present invention. [Figure 9] FIG. 9 is a diagram illustrating an example of the configuration of the plan development unit in the second embodiment. [Figure 10] FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating an example of the configuration of the trading volume planning unit. [Figure 11] FIG. 11 is a flowchart illustrating an example of an equipment operation plan support process by the equipment operation plan support device in the second embodiment. [Figure 12] FIG. 12 is a diagram illustrating an example of a process flow in the vicinity of the facility operation plan support device in the second embodiment. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS

[0017] Hereinafter, a number of embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. In all the drawings for describing each embodiment, the same components are generally given the same reference numerals, and the repeated description thereof will be omitted. In addition, in the following embodiments, the components (including element steps, etc.) are not necessarily essential, except when specifically indicated, or when it is clearly considered essential in principle. In addition, when it is said that "consists of A," "consists of A," "has A," or "includes A," it does not exclude other elements, except when it is specifically indicated that only that element is included. Similarly, in the following embodiments, when referring to the shape, positional relationship, etc. of components, etc., it includes those that are substantially similar or similar to the shape, etc., except when it is specifically indicated, or when it is clearly considered not to be the case in principle.

[0018] <Configuration Example of Facility Operation Plan Support Device 1 According to First Embodiment of the Present Invention> 1 shows an example of the configuration of an equipment operation plan support device 1 according to a first embodiment of the present invention. The equipment operation plan support device 1 includes a scenario prediction unit 1-1, a transaction demand prediction unit 1-2, a parameter setting unit 1-3, and a plan formulation unit 1-4.

[0019] The facility operation plan support device 1 is realized by a general computer such as a personal computer or a server computer. The computer includes a processor such as a central processing unit (CPU), a memory such as a dynamic random access memory (DRAM), a storage such as a hard disk drive (HDD) or a solid state drive (SSD), an input device such as a keyboard, a mouse, or a media drive, an output device such as a display, and a communication module such as an Ethernet (trademark) card or a Wi-Fi (trademark) adapter. The processor, memory, and storage included in the computer correspond to the arithmetic device, memory resource, and storage device, respectively, in the claims of the present invention.

[0020] For example, a computer constituting the facility operation planning support device 1 realizes a scenario prediction unit 1-1, a transaction demand prediction unit 1-2, a parameter setting unit 1-3, and a plan formulation unit 1-4 by a processor executing a predetermined program stored in a memory.

[0021] The predetermined program executed by the processor may be stored in memory in advance, or may be downloaded from a predetermined server or the like via a removable medium (CD-ROM, flash memory, etc.) or a network such as the Internet, stored in storage, which is a non-transitory storage medium, and read out from the storage when necessary. For this reason, it is preferable for the computer to have an interface for reading data from removable media.

[0022] The facility operation plan support device 1 may be realized by one physical or logical computer, or may be realized by two or more physical or logical computers. The two or more physical or logical computers may be distributed and arranged on a network.

[0023] The scenario prediction unit 1-1 predicts future energy demand 1-d based on past energy demand actual values ​​1-a, past weather information 1-b, and past market energy prices 1-c, and outputs the prediction result to the transaction demand prediction unit 1-2. In the embodiment of the present invention, the energy is assumed to be electricity, gas, hydrogen, etc., but is not limited to these.

[0024] The transaction demand forecasting unit 1-2 predicts an environmental value demand forecast value 1-h based on past energy demand actual values ​​1-a, future energy demand 1-d, weather forecast information 1-e, energy market price information 1-g, and past environmental value transaction actual values ​​1-f, and outputs the predicted environmental value demand forecast value 1-h to a parameter setting unit 1-3.

[0025] The parameter setting unit 1-3 sets transaction parameters 1-i for formulating an equipment operation plan based on the environmental value demand forecast value 1-h. Here, the transaction parameters 1-i are mainly based on the environmental value demand forecast value 1-h, and are intended to be reflected in the operation plan so that a transaction is carried out when a large demand for transaction is predicted. The transaction parameters 1-i will be described later with reference to FIG. 7.

[0026] The planning unit 1-4 formulates the customer's operation plan (including an environmental value trading plan) 1-o based on the trading parameters 1-i, the energy operation plan including the facilities of the customer business operator, etc., energy demand, actual values ​​such as trading of exhaust gas emission rights, and KPIs, and presents it to the customer.

[0027] 2 shows an example of the configuration of the transaction demand forecasting unit 1-2. The transaction demand forecasting unit 1-2 includes a learning unit 1-2-1 and a forecasting unit 1-2-2.

[0028] The learning unit 1-2-1 learns a model that outputs (predicts) future exhaust gas trading demand using past energy demand results 1-a, past weather information 1-b, past market energy prices 1-c, and past environmental value trading results 1-f as inputs. The learning unit 1-2-1 then outputs model parameters 1-2-a that characterize the model to the prediction unit 1-2-2.

[0029] The past energy demand performance values ​​1-a input to the transaction demand forecasting unit 1-2 may be expressed, for example, as time series information on the amount of energy for each predetermined time period (e.g., every 30 minutes) or as the amount of energy for each day (e.g., 24 hours), but are not limited to this. Past weather information 1-b may be, for example, the amount of solar radiation, rainfall, wind speed, etc., for each 30 minutes or each hour, but are not limited to these. Past market energy prices 1-c may be, for example, the prices of electricity, gas, hydrogen, etc., for each 30 minutes or each month. Past environmental value transaction performance 1-f may be, for example, the type of environmental value and its transaction volume per day, but are not limited to these.

[0030] The prediction unit 1-2-2 calculates an environmental value demand prediction value 1-h for a model corresponding to the model parameters 1-2-a input from the learning unit 1-2-1, using as input future energy demand 1-d, weather forecast information 1-e, and energy market price information 1-g input from the scenario prediction unit 1-1.

[0031] The learning unit 1-2-1 and the prediction unit 1-2-2 may use a neural network, pattern recognition, or the like to derive the environmental value demand prediction value 1-h, but the present invention is not limited to these.

[0032] 3 shows an example of the configuration of the planning unit 1-4. The planning unit 1-4 includes a trading volume planning unit 1-4-1 and a transaction selection unit 1-4-2.

[0033] The trading volume planning unit 1-4-1 derives an environmental value trading volume 1-4-a, which represents the amount of environmental value to be traded in the future, based on the trading parameters 1-i input from the parameter setting unit 1-3, as well as the possible exhaust gas emission volume 1-j, the possible environmental value trading volume 1-k, the actual environmental value trading volume 1-l, and the low environmental load equipment information 1-m input by the business operator for which the operation plan is being formulated.

[0034] Here, the possible exhaust gas emission amount 1-j is, for example, the possible exhaust gas emission amount allocated on an annual basis minus the amount of exhaust gas from the business operator's equipment and the amount of exhaust gas emitted when electricity received from the grid is generated. The tradable environmental value amount 1-k is, for example, the amount of exhaust gas reduction that can be expected by utilizing low environmental load equipment minus the possible emission amount as a right sold to other businesses. The actual environmental value trading amount 1-l is, for example, the total value of the possible exhaust gas amount as a right sold to other businesses. However, the above examples are merely examples and are not limited to these.

[0035] Here, the sum of the actual environmental value trading amount 1-l and the tradable environmental value amount 1-k is a fixed value that differs for each business operator. Also, the possible exhaust gas emission amount 1-j decreases when a business operator generates exhaust gas or trades environmental value. These correlations are also reflected in the constraints when formulating an operation plan.

[0036] The transaction selection unit 1-4-2 selects whether the derived environmental value transaction volume 1-4-a will be traded directly between traders or indirectly via the environmental value trading market 4-4 (Fig. 4). This selection is then presented to the business operator, and if the business operator disagrees with this selection and receives a constraint condition 1-p, the transaction volume planning unit 1-4-1 reflects this in the formulation of the operation plan, thereby formulating the operation plan again, and the transaction selection unit 1-4-2 again selects direct or indirect trading. As a result, the transaction selection unit 1-4-2 transmits the operation plan 1-o to the business operator.

[0037] For example, between businesses whose operation plans are supported by the facility operation plan support device 1, transactions are formulated based on direct transactions and with a focus on transactions of environmental values ​​with low transaction prices. For businesses that are not supported by the facility operation plan support device 1, indirect transactions may be considered.

[0038] The objective function in this case is Objective function = Facility operating cost - Environmental value traded to non-supported businesses are candidates, and the facility operation plan support device 1 supports the operation plan so as to minimize these candidates.

[0039] FIG. 4 shows an example of the peripheral configuration of the facility operation plan support device 1.

[0040] The energy trading market 4-2 supplies energy price time-series information 4-a of electricity, gas, hydrogen, etc. to the facility operation plan support device 1. The energy price time-series information 4-a includes past market energy prices 1-c, past trading results of environmental value 1-f, and energy market price information 1-g.

[0041] The weather data provider 4-3 supplies weather information 4-b to the facility operation plan support device 1. The weather information 4-b includes past weather information 1-b and weather forecast information 1-e.

[0042] The business operator (power generation business operator) 4-1 supplies information 4-c to the equipment operation plan support device 1. The information 4-c includes information on low environmental load equipment introduced by the business operator (power generation business operator) 4-1, power received from the grid, the trading status of environmental value, constraint conditions, etc. For example, the price per ton of exhaust gas is determined by this low environmental load equipment and means. The power received from the grid and the environmental value trading status included in the information 4-c are used to understand the exhaust gas that can be discharged and the tradable environmental value. The constraint conditions included in the information 4-c are supplied by the business operator (power generation business operator) 4-1 when the business operator does not agree to the operation plan 1-o presented by the equipment operation plan support device 1.

[0043] The environmental value trading market 4-4 supplies environmental value trading information 4-e to the facility operation plan supporting device 1. The facility operation plan supporting device 1 sets a price per ton of exhaust gas based on the environmental value trading information 4-e.

[0044] Each business operator 4-1 can directly trade environmental value with other businesses at a trading amount 4-f, or can trade indirectly via the environmental value trading market 4-4. In the case of indirect trading via the environmental value trading market 4-4, a business operator 4-1 selling environmental value presents the trading amount and trading details 4-g to the environmental value trading market 4-4, and a business operator 4-1 who wants to purchase environmental value purchases the environmental value from the environmental value trading market 4-4 and carries out the transaction according to the presented trading amount and trading amount 4-h.

[0045] An example of a facility operation plan is shown below. The constraint function is the emission capacity M CO2 , emissions M CO2_Em , the available trading volume M CO2_TR , the planned amount of environmental value traded indirectly through the market M CO2_x_market , and the planned amount of environmental value to be directly traded M CO2_x_direct(The respective units are [t-CO2]) can be used to set the following equations (1-1) and (1-2).

[0046]

number

[0047] In addition, CO2 emissions are calculated based on the amount of gas used, G x [t], CO2 emission factor K due to gas use G_gas , [t / t-CO2], gas-to-electricity conversion factor K GP [kWh / t], power received from the grid P GRID [kWh], CO2 emission coefficient K for received electricity G_Grid Using [t-CO2 / kWh], it can be shown as the following equation (1-3).

[0048]

number

[0049] Furthermore, the objective function is the gas cost Y G [￥ / t], the cost of receiving electricity from the grid Y E [￥ / kWh], weighting coefficient K according to transaction forecast value, transaction price Y tr (i) Using [￥ / t-CO2], it can be defined as follows: (1-4)

[0050]

number

[0051] Next, an example of the weighting coefficient is shown below. The weighting coefficient K can be expressed as the following formula (1-5) using the maximum electricity demand Emax, the maximum gas demand Gmax, the maximum hydrogen demand Hmax [kWh], the electricity demand forecast value E, the gas demand forecast value G, the hydrogen demand forecast value H [kWh], the transaction forecast value Tr, and the maximum transaction record Trmax [t-CO2].

[0052]

number

[0053] The objective function is not limited to the formulas (1-1) to (1-4), and the weighting coefficient is not limited to the formula (1-5).

[0054] <Facility operation plan support processing by facility operation plan support device 1> FIG. 5 is a flowchart showing an example of an equipment operation plan support process performed by the equipment operation plan support device 1.

[0055] As a premise for the equipment operation planning support processing, it is assumed that the learning unit 1-2-1 of the trading demand forecasting unit 1-2 has already learned a model that outputs (predicts) future exhaust gas trading demand and has already output model parameters 1-2-a that characterize the model to the forecasting unit 1-2-2.

[0056] The facility operation plan support process is started in response to a predetermined operation by a user, for example.

[0057] First, the equipment operation planning support device 1 acquires energy price time series information 4-a from the energy trading market 4-2, inputs past market energy prices 1-c contained in the energy price time series information 4-a to the scenario prediction unit 1-1 and the trading demand prediction unit 1-2, and inputs past environmental value trading performance 1-f and energy market price information 1-g to the trading demand prediction unit 1-2 (step S5-1).

[0058] Next, the equipment operation planning support device 1 acquires weather information 4-b from the weather data provider 4-3, inputs the past weather information 1-b contained in the weather information 4-b to the scenario prediction unit 1-1 and the transaction demand prediction unit 1-2, and inputs the weather forecast information 1-e to the transaction demand prediction unit 1-2 (step S5-2).

[0059] Next, the scenario prediction unit 1-1 predicts future energy demand 1-d based on past energy demand actual values ​​1-a, past weather information 1-b, and past market energy prices 1-c, and outputs the prediction to the transaction demand prediction unit 1-2 (step S5-3).

[0060] Next, the prediction unit 1-2-2 of the transaction demand prediction unit 1-2 calculates an environmental value demand prediction value 1-h for a model corresponding to the model parameters 1-2-a input from the learning unit 1-2-1, using as input the future energy demand 1-d, energy market price information 1-g, and weather forecast information 1-e input from the scenario prediction unit 1-1, and outputs the calculated environmental value demand prediction value 1-h to the parameter setting unit 1-3 (step S5-4).

[0061] Next, the parameter setting unit 1-3 sets the transaction parameters 1-i in the facility operation plan based on the environmental value demand forecast value 1-h (step S5-5).

[0062] Next, the planning unit 1-4 obtains KPIs (e.g., whether to emphasize environmental value or operating costs) from each client business operator and reflects them in the transaction parameters 1-i from the parameter setting unit 1-3 (step S5-6).

[0063] Next, the planning unit 1-4 formulates an operation plan (including an environmental value trading plan) 1-o for the customer based on the energy operation plan including the facilities of each customer business operator, energy demand, actual values ​​of exhaust gas emission rights trading, etc., and the business operator's KPIs, etc. (step S5-7).

[0064] Specifically, the transaction volume planning unit 1-4-1 of the planning unit 1-4 derives the environmental value transaction volume 1-4-a in accordance with the constraints such as the above-mentioned formulas (1-1) to (1-5) based on the transaction parameters 1-i reflecting the KPI, as well as the possible exhaust gas emission volume 1-j, the possible environmental value tradable (saleable) volume 1-k, the environmental value transaction record volume 1-l, and the low environmental load equipment information 1-m input by the business operator. Then, the transaction selection unit 1-4-2 of the planning unit 1-4 selects whether the environmental value transaction volume 1-4-a should be traded directly between businesses or indirectly via the environmental value trading market 4-4 (Figure 4).

[0065] Next, the plan formulation unit 1-4 presents the environmental value trading volume 1-4-a and the selection result by the transaction selection unit 1-4-2 as the operation plan 1-o to the business operator, which is the client, and obtains agreement (step S5-8). If the business operator does not agree with the operation plan 1-o (NO in step S5-8), the plan formulation unit 1-4 obtains constraint conditions, which are conditions for the business operator to agree with the operation plan 1-o (step S5-9), and repeats the processing from step S5-7 onwards. If the business operator agrees with the operation plan 1-o (YES in step S5-8), the equipment operation plan support device 1 ends the equipment operation plan support processing. This concludes the description of the equipment operation plan support processing by the equipment operation plan support device 1.

[0066] <Process flow around the facility operation plan support device 1> FIG. 6 shows an example of a process flow around the facility operation plan support device 1.

[0067] In the process P1, the business operator 4-1 formulates the amount of energy procurement, the amount of exhaust gas emission that can be traded, and the environmental value in response to a request from the equipment operation plan support device 1, and supplies them to the equipment operation plan support device 1.

[0068] In the next process P2, the facility operation plan support device 1 generates an energy demand scenario that is a future energy demand forecast based on information obtained from the business operator 4-1, the environmental value trading market 4-4, the energy trading market 4-2, and the weather data provider 4-3.

[0069] In the next process P3, the facility operation plan support device 1 learns the correlation between energy demand and the trading volume of environmental value, and predicts the trading volume of environmental value based on the learned content and the energy demand scenario of process P2.

[0070] In the next process P4, the equipment operation plan support device 1 utilizes parameters of the operation plan and the trading plan based on the predicted trading amount of environmental value, and formulates an operation plan and a trading plan based on equations (1-1) to (1-5) and presents them to the business operator.

[0071] In the next process P5, the operator considers whether or not to agree with the operation plan and the trading plan formulated in the process P4. If an agreement cannot be reached, the operator transmits information to that effect and the constraint conditions to the equipment operation plan support device 1.

[0072] In process P6, the equipment operation plan support device 1 again formulates an operation plan and a trading plan based on the constraint conditions. Then, processes P5 and P6 are repeated until an agreement is reached between the equipment operation plan support device 1 and the business operator on the operation plan and the trading plan. This concludes the description of the process flow around the equipment operation plan support device 1.

[0073] Fig. 7 shows an example of transaction parameters 1-i in a facility operation plan set by the parameter setting unit 1-3 according to the environmental value demand forecast value 1-h. In the case of this figure, the transaction parameters are set from 1 / 1 to 12 / 31, and since transactions are conducted on a daily basis, transaction parameter values ​​are set for each day.

[0074] For example, a day with a large trading parameter value, such as January 31st, means that there are many businesses wanting environmental value on that day. For this reason, this is reflected in the facility operation plan so that many transactions are carried out on that day.

[0075] <Advantages of the First Embodiment> According to the equipment operation plan support device 1, the trading demand for environmental value is predicted based on the history of market energy prices, the history of energy demand, and the history of environmental value trading demand, so that it is possible to formulate an equipment operation plan and an environmental value trading plan according to the predicted trading demand, and to trade the allocated environmental value to the maximum extent possible. Furthermore, if the business operator does not agree with the formulated equipment operation plan and environmental value trading plan, it is possible to re-formulate the equipment operation plan and environmental value trading plan in accordance with the constraints imposed by the business operator, so as not to impair the business operator's profits.

[0076] <Configuration Example of Facility Operation Plan Support Device 1′ According to Second Embodiment of the Present Invention> FIG. 8 shows an example of the configuration of a facility operation schedule supporting device 1′ according to the second embodiment of the present invention.

[0077] The equipment operation plan support device 1' is obtained by replacing the plan formulation unit 1-4 of the equipment operation plan support device 1 (FIG. 1) according to the first embodiment of the present invention with a plan formulation unit 8-4 and adding an energy system information storage unit 8-1. The components of the equipment operation plan support device 1' other than the plan formulation unit 8-4 and the energy system information storage unit 8-1 are the same as the components of the equipment operation plan support device 1, so they are denoted by the same reference numerals and their explanations are omitted as appropriate.

[0078] The plan development unit 8-4, like the plan development unit 1-4, is realized by a processor executing a predetermined program in a computer that realizes the facility operation plan support device 1'. The energy system information storage unit 8-1 is realized by the storage of the computer.

[0079] The plan formulation unit 8-4 formulates the customer's operation plan (including an environmental value trading plan) 8-b based on the trading parameters 1-i, the energy system information 8-a, the energy operation plan including the facilities of the customer (business operator, etc.), the energy demand, the actual values ​​of the trading of exhaust gas emission rights, etc., the operational target values, and the operation plan of the business operator's facilities, and presents it to the customer.

[0080] The energy system information storage unit 8-1 holds energy system information 8-a and supplies the energy system information 8-a to the plan formulation unit 8-4. The energy system information 8-a represents an energy supply network for a business operator (standards for power plants, substations, power transmission lines, etc.). The energy system information 8-a also includes system constraints such as power flow, gas flow rate, upper and lower limits of the voltage of the power system, and upper and lower limits of the gas pipeline, as shown in equations (2-5) to (2-10) described later.

[0081] 9 shows an example of the configuration of the planning unit 8-4. The planning unit 8-4 includes a trading volume planning unit 8-4-1 and a transaction selection unit 8-4-2.

[0082] The trading volume planning unit 8-4-1 derives the environmental value trading volume 8-4-a to be traded in the future based on the trading parameters 1-i input from the parameter setting unit 1-3, the possible exhaust gas emission volume 1-j, the tradable environmental value volume 1-k, the actual environmental value trading volume 1-l, and the low environmental load equipment information 1-m, the equipment operation plan information 9-a including the low environmental load, the specification information 9-b of the customer equipment, and the energy system information 8-a input from the business entity for which the operation plan (including the trading plan for the environmental value) is to be formulated. The trading volume planning unit 8-4-1 formulates the trading plan within the scope of complying with the system constraints included in the energy system information 8-a.

[0083] Here, the sum of the actual amount of environmental value traded 1-l and the tradable amount of environmental value 1-k is a fixed value that differs for each business operator. Also, the possible amount of exhaust gas emission 1-j decreases when a business operator generates exhaust gas or trades environmental value. These correlations are also reflected in the constraints when formulating an operation plan.

[0084] The transaction selection unit 8-4-2 selects whether to trade the environmental value transaction volume 8-4-a directly or indirectly. Then, the result of the selection is presented to the business operator. If the business operator does not agree to the transaction and the constraint condition 1-p is received, the transaction volume planning unit 8-4-1 again formulates an operation plan, and the transaction selection unit 8-4-2 selects direct or indirect trading. The transaction selection unit 8-4-2 transmits the result, the operation plan 8-b, to the business operator.

[0085] 10 shows an example of the configuration of the trading volume planning unit 8-4-1. The trading volume planning unit 8-4-1 includes a planned volume setting unit 8-4-1-1, a system calculation unit 8-4-1-2, and an evaluation unit 8-4-1-3.

[0086] The planned quantity setting unit 8-4-1-1 sets planned quantities 8-4-1-a required for system operation and trading operation based on trading parameters 1-i, possible exhaust gas emission amount 1-j, tradable amount of environmental value 1-k, actual amount of environmental value traded 1-l, low environmental load equipment information 1-m, operator's constraint conditions 1-p, energy system information 8-a, equipment operation plan information including low environmental load 9-a, and customer equipment specification information 9-b, and outputs the planned quantities 8-4-1-a to the system calculation unit 8-4-1-2 and evaluation unit 8-4-1-3.

[0087] The system calculation unit 8-4-1-2 analyzes the state of the energy system based on the planned amount 8-4-1-a, the energy system information 8-a, the equipment operation plan information 9-a including low environmental load, and the specification information 9-b of the customer equipment. Furthermore, the system calculation unit 8-4-1-2 outputs the analysis result 8-4-1-b of the state of the energy system to the evaluation unit 8-4-1-3.

[0088] In addition, the system state analysis in the system calculation unit 8-4-1-2 adopts a general analysis method such as the Newton-Raphson method, but is not limited to this. In addition, if there is no solution due to the convenience of the solution method, it may occur that there is no solution.

[0089] The evaluation unit 8-4-1-3 checks the analysis result 8-4-1-b from the system calculation unit 8-4-1-2 against the system constraints shown in equations (2-5) to (2-10) described later to confirm whether or not there is a constraint violation. The evaluation unit 8-4-1-3 also evaluates whether or not the planned amount 8-4-1-a is appropriate based on the analysis result 8-4-1-b. This evaluation is performed based on the objective function and the system constraints. If the evaluation unit 8-4-1-3 evaluates that the planned amount 8-4-1-a is appropriate, it outputs the environmental value trading amount 8-4-a to the trading selection unit 8-4-2, and conversely, if the evaluation unit 8-4-1-3 evaluates that the planned amount 8-4-1-a is not appropriate, it outputs a recalculation request flag 8-4-1-c to the planned amount setting unit 8-4-1-1.

[0090] Here, an example of the facility operation plan will be described. The constraint is the emission capacity M CO2 , emissions M CO2_Em , the available trading volume M CO2_TR, the planned amount of environmental value traded indirectly through the market M CO2_x_market , and the planned amount of environmental value to be directly traded M CO2_x_direct (The units for each are [t-CO2]) can be used to set the following equations (2-1) and (2-2).

[0091]

number

[0092] CO2 emissions are calculated by the amount of gas used by business operator i for equipment j, G x [t], CO2 emission factor K due to gas use G_gas [t / t-CO2], gas-to-electricity conversion coefficient K GP_gen [kWh / t], power received from the grid P GRID [kWh] and CO2 emission coefficient K for received electricity G_Grid It can be expressed as the following equation (2-3) using [t-CO2 / kWh].

[0093]

number

[0094] The objective function is the gas cost Y G [￥ / t], the cost of receiving electricity from the grid Y E [￥ / kWh], weighting coefficient K, and transaction price Y tr (i) It can be defined using [￥ / t-CO2] as follows: (2-4)

[0095]

number

[0096] In this case, system constraints to be considered include, but are not limited to, the voltage of the power system, the line current, the gas pressure of the gas system, and the gas concentration. For the buses a and b of the power system, points c and d of the gas system, the power lines ab, and the gas pipes cd, for example, constraints such as those shown in the following expressions (2-5) to (2-9) are set.

[0097]

number

[0098] Here, V a ,V b is the voltage of bus a and b, V min ,V max is the lower and upper limit of the system voltage, P ab is the line power flow between power lines a and b, P max is the upper limit of the line power flow, P ra ,P rb is the pressure at gas points a and b, P rmax is the upper limit of the gas pressure. In addition, if the gas grid is a mixture of hydrogen and methane, the following constraint (2-10) may also be considered.

[0099]

number

[0100] Here, Den H2 is the concentration of hydrogen, Den H2_max is the upper limit of hydrogen concentration.

[0101] <Facility operation plan support processing by facility operation plan support device 1'> FIG. 11 is a flowchart showing an example of an equipment operation plan support process by the equipment operation plan support device 1′.

[0102] Steps S11-1 to S11-6 of the equipment operation plan support process by the equipment operation plan support device 1' are the same as steps S5-1 to S5-6 of the equipment operation plan support process (FIG. 5) by the equipment operation plan support device 1, so a description thereof will be omitted.

[0103] In step S11-6, the plan formulation unit 8-4 reflects the KPIs from each business operator in the trading parameters 1-i from the parameter setting unit 1-3, and then the plan formulation unit 8-4 acquires the equipment operation plan information 9-a and the equipment specification information 9-b from each business operator, acquires the energy system information 8-a from the energy system information storage unit 8-1, and inputs it to the planned amount setting unit 8-4-1-1 and the system calculation unit 8-4-1-2. In addition, the plan formulation unit 8-4 acquires the exhaust gas emission capacity 1-j and the environmental value tradable amount 1-k of the business operator, and inputs it to the planned amount setting unit 8-4-1-1 (step S11-7).

[0104] Next, the planning quantity setting unit 8-4-1-1 sets the constraint conditions as shown in the equations (2-1) to (2-10) based on the information input in step S11-7 (step S11-8).

[0105] Next, the planned quantity setting unit 8-4-1-1 formulates the operation plan 8-b based on the information input in step S11-7 (step S11-9). During the formulation, the operational constraints set in step S11-8, shown in equations (2-1) to (2-4), and the physical system constraints of the energy system, shown in equations (2-5) to (2-10), are observed.

[0106] Specifically, a trading volume planning unit 8-4-1 of the planning unit 8-4 derives an environmental value trading volume 8-4-a in accordance with the constraints expressed by the above-mentioned formulas (2-1) to (2-10) based on trading parameters 1-i reflecting KPIs, as well as the possible exhaust gas emission volume 1-j, the possible environmental value trading volume 1-k, the actual environmental value trading volume 1-l, and the low environmental load equipment information 1-m input by the business operator. Then, a trading selection unit 8-4-2 of the planning unit 8-4 selects whether the environmental value trading volume 8-4-a should be traded directly between businesses or indirectly via the environmental value trading market 4-4 (Figure 4).

[0107] Next, the plan formulation unit 8-4 presents the environmental value trading volume 8-4-a and the selection result by the transaction selection unit 8-4-2 as the operation plan 8-b to the business operator, which is the client, and obtains agreement (step S11-10). If the business operator does not agree with the operation plan 8-b (NO in step S11-10), the plan formulation unit 8-4 obtains constraint conditions, which are conditions for the business operator to agree with the operation plan 8-b (step S11-11), and repeats the processing from step S11-9 onwards. If the business operator agrees with the operation plan 8-b (YES in step S11-10), the equipment operation plan support device 1' ends the equipment operation plan support processing. This concludes the description of the equipment operation plan support processing by the equipment operation plan support device 1'.

[0108] <Process flow around the facility operation plan support device 1'> FIG. 12 shows an example of a process flow around the facility operation plan support device 1′.

[0109] In process P1', the business operator 4-1 formulates the amount of energy procurement, the amount of exhaust gas emission possible, and the tradable amount of environmental value in response to a request from the equipment operation plan support device 1', and supplies them to the equipment operation plan support device 1'. Also, the business operator 4-1 supplies the equipment operation plan of the business operator's controllable equipment, the equipment specifications, and the business operator's equipment constraint conditions to the equipment operation plan support device 1' in response to a request from the equipment operation plan support device 1'.

[0110] In the next process P2', the facility operation plan support device 1' generates an energy demand scenario that is a future energy demand forecast based on information obtained from the business operator 4-1, the environmental value trading market 4-4, the energy trading market 4-2, and the weather data provider 4-3.

[0111] In the next process P3', the facility operation plan support device 1' learns the correlation between energy demand and the trading volume of environmental value, and predicts the trading volume of environmental value based on the learned content and the energy demand scenario of process P2'.

[0112] In the next process P4', the equipment operation plan support device 1' utilizes the parameters of the operation plan and the trading plan based on the predicted trading amount of environmental value, and formulates an operation plan and a trading plan in accordance with the constraints (including system constraints) expressed by equations (2-1) to (2-10), and presents them to the business operator.

[0113] In the next process P5', the operator considers whether or not to agree with the operation plan and trading plan formulated in process P4'. If an agreement cannot be reached, the operator transmits information to that effect and constraint conditions to the facility operation plan support device 1'.

[0114] In process P6', the equipment operation plan support device 1' formulates an operation plan and a trading plan again based on the constraint conditions. Then, processes P5' and P6' are repeated until an agreement is reached between the equipment operation plan support device 1' and the business operator on the operation plan and the trading plan. This concludes the description of the process flow around the equipment operation plan support device 1'.

[0115] <Effects of the second embodiment> According to the facility operation plan support device 1', it is possible to formulate the trading volume of environmental value and the facility operation plan in accordance with the trading demand forecast of environmental value, taking into account the facility operation plan of the consumer. Also, by taking into account not only the agreement of the business operators but also the energy system information and the business operator's facilities, it is possible to formulate the facility operation plan and the trading plan of environmental value in accordance with more detailed constraint conditions including the system constraints, thereby making it possible to make the most of the trading volume of each business operator.

[0116] The present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiment, and various modifications are possible. For example, the above-described embodiment has been described in detail to clearly explain the present invention, and is not necessarily limited to those having all of the configurations described. In addition, it is possible to replace a part of the configuration of one embodiment with a configuration of another embodiment, or to add a part of the configuration of another embodiment.

[0117] In addition, the above-mentioned configurations, functions, processing units, processing means, etc. may be realized in hardware, partly or in whole, by designing them as an integrated circuit, for example. In addition, the above-mentioned configurations, functions, etc. may be realized in software by a processor interpreting and executing a program that realizes each function. Information such as a program, table, file, etc. that realizes each function can be placed in a memory, a recording device such as a hard disk or SSD, or a recording medium such as an IC card, an SD card, or a DVD. In addition, the control lines and information lines are shown as being necessary for explanation, and not all control lines and information lines are necessarily shown in the product. In reality, it may be considered that almost all configurations are connected to each other. [Explanation of symbols]

[0118] 1,1'...Facility operation planning support device 1-1 Scenario Prediction Section 1-2 Trade Demand Forecasting Department 1-2-1 Learning Department 1-2-2 Prediction section 1-2-a Model parameters 1-3 Parameter setting section 1-4 Planning Department 1-4-1 Trading Volume Planning Department 1-4-2 Trade Selection Section 1-4-a Environmental value trading volume 1-a... Actual values 1-b...Weather information 1-c Market energy prices 1-d Energy demand 1-e Weather forecast information 1-f...Trading record 1-g Energy market price information 1-h... Environmental value demand forecast value 1-i Trading parameters 1-j... Possible exhaust gas emission amount 1-k: Amount of environmental value that can be traded (sold) 1-l Environmental value trading volume 1-m...Equipment information 1-o... Operation plan 4-1...Business operator 4-2 Energy trading market 4-3 Weather data providers 4-4 Environmental value trading market 4-a Energy price time series information 4-b Weather Information 4-c...Information 4-e Environmental value trading information 4-f Transaction amount 4-g...Transaction details 4-h...Transaction amount 8-1 Energy system information storage unit 8-4 Planning Department 8-4-1 Trading Volume Planning Section 8-4-1-1 Planning quantity setting section 8-4-1-2...System calculation section 8-4-1-3 Evaluation section 8-4-1-a Planning quantity 8-4-1-b...Analysis results 8-4-1-c Recalculation request flag 8-4-2 Trade Selection Section 8-4-a Environmental value trading volume 8-a Energy system information 8-b Operation plan 9-a Equipment operation plan information 9-b...Specification Information

Claims

1. An equipment operation plan support device that supports an equipment operation plan of a target business operator, The system is configured by a computer having one or more arithmetic units, one or more memory resources, and one or more storage devices, The computing device includes a scenario prediction unit that predicts future energy demand based on past energy demand results, past weather information, and past market energy prices; the computing device has a transaction demand prediction unit that predicts an environmental value demand prediction value based on the predicted future energy demand, the past energy demand performance value, the past weather information, the past market energy prices, weather forecast information, past environmental value transaction performance, and energy price information; a parameter setting unit that sets transaction parameters for formulating an equipment operation plan based on the environmental value demand forecast value; The computing device includes a plan formulation unit that formulates the facility operation plan based on the transaction parameters; A facility operation plan support device comprising:

2. The facility operation plan support device according to claim 1, The transaction demand forecasting unit a learning unit configured to learn in advance a model that uses the past energy demand actual value, the past weather information, the past market energy price, and the past environmental value transaction actual value as inputs and outputs the environmental value demand forecast value; The calculation device has a prediction unit that predicts the environmental value demand prediction value by inputting the future energy demand, the weather forecast information, and the energy price information into the trained model. A facility operation plan support device comprising:

3. The facility operation plan support device according to claim 1, The planning department a transaction volume planning unit in the computing device that derives an environmental value transaction volume based on the transaction parameters, and the possible exhaust gas emission volume, the possible environmental value transaction volume, the actual environmental value transaction volume, and the low environmental load equipment information input by the target business; The computing device has a transaction selection unit that selects whether the transaction of the derived environmental value transaction amount is to be a direct transaction between businesses or an indirect transaction via a market. A facility operation plan support device comprising:

4. The facility operation plan support device according to claim 1, The past energy demand performance value is time-series information on the amount of energy per predetermined time or the amount of energy per day. An operation plan support device characterized by:

5. The facility operation plan support device according to claim 1, The planning department The computing device develops the equipment operation plan based on the transaction parameters; When the target business operator does not agree with the formulated facility operation plan, the computing device re-formulates the facility operation plan in accordance with constraints from the target business operator. A facility operation plan support device comprising:

6. The facility operation plan support device according to claim 5, The constraints from the target business include KPIs (Key Performance Indicators). A facility operation plan support device comprising:

7. The facility operation plan support device according to claim 3, The storage device includes: an energy system information storage unit for storing energy system information representing an energy supply network for the target business; A facility operation plan support device comprising:

8. The facility operation plan support device according to claim 7, The trading volume planning unit The computing device includes a planned quantity setting unit that formulates the facility operation plan and the environmental value trading plan; The arithmetic device includes a system calculation unit that performs system calculation based on the energy system information; The calculation device has an evaluation unit that evaluates the appropriateness of the facility operation plan and the environmental value trading plan based on the results of the system calculation. A facility operation plan support device comprising:

9. The facility operation plan support device according to claim 8, The system calculation unit performs a system analysis based on the energy system information, The evaluation unit compares a result of the system analysis with a system constraint included in the energy system information. A facility operation plan support device comprising:

10. The facility operation plan support device according to claim 9, The system constraints included in the energy system information include at least one of upper and lower voltage limits of a power system, an upper limit of a line flow through each line of the power system, an upper limit of a gas pressure of a gas system, and an upper limit of a gas concentration included in a gas flow path of the gas system. A facility operation plan support device comprising:

11. An equipment operation plan support method using an equipment operation plan support device that supports an equipment operation plan of a target business operator, The facility operation plan support device is configured by a computer having one or more arithmetic units, one or more memory resources, and one or more storage devices, The facility operation plan support method includes: a scenario prediction step in which the computing device predicts future energy demand based on past actual energy demand values, past weather information, and past market energy prices; a transaction demand forecasting step in which the computing device predicts an environmental value demand forecast value based on the predicted future energy demand, the past energy demand performance value, the past weather information, the past market energy prices, weather forecast information, past environmental value transaction performance, and energy price information; a parameter setting step in which the computing device sets transaction parameters for formulating an equipment operation plan based on the environmental value demand forecast value; a planning step in which the computing device formulates the facility operation plan based on the transaction parameters; A facility operation plan support method comprising:

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