Estimation device, estimation method, and program

Abstract

To provide an estimation device and the like with which it is possible to present, to users, more appropriate information including effects of introduction.SOLUTION: An introduction effect estimation device 10 is a device for estimating effects of introduction of a photovoltaic power generation apparatus, and comprises: a characteristic information acquisition unit 11c for acquiring characteristic information including a solar radiation characteristic; a long term factor information acquisition unit 11d for acquiring long term factor information on factors causing a decrease in the effects of introduction of the photovoltaic power generation apparatus; a site information acquisition 11a for acquiring site information indicating a site where the photovoltaic power generation apparatus is installed; a facility information acquisition unit 11b for acquiring facility information on the photovoltaic power generation apparatus; an estimation unit 13 for estimating the effects of introduction of the photovoltaic power generation apparatus on the basis of at least the facility information, the site information, and the characteristic information; and a display control unit 14 for outputting presentation information based on the effects of introduction and the long term factor information.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 2

Description

[Technical field]

[0001] The present invention relates to an estimation device, an estimation method, and a program. [Background technology]

[0002] In recent years, from the viewpoint of global environmental measures such as reducing CO2, the installation of power generation equipment using so-called renewable energy has been promoted. For example, Patent Document 1 discloses an information providing server for promoting the installation of private power generation equipment by providing information that allows users to consider the advantages and disadvantages of installing a power generation equipment. An example of the power generation equipment is a solar power generation equipment. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0003] [Patent Document 1] JP 2008-77369 A Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0004] Meanwhile, there is a service that estimates the amount of power generated by a photovoltaic power generation system according to the region and location for businesses or owners who install photovoltaic power generation systems. The introduction effect of the photovoltaic power generation system is calculated based on the estimated value, and the calculated introduction effect is used as a reference when installing the photovoltaic power generation system. Since the return on investment of a photovoltaic power generation system takes a long time, it is desirable to present more appropriate information, including the introduction effect, to users.

[0005] Therefore, the present invention provides an estimation device, an estimation method, and a program that can present more appropriate information, including the introduction effect, to a user. [Means for solving the problem]

[0006] An estimation device according to one embodiment of the present invention is an estimation device that estimates the introduction effect of a solar power generation system, and includes a characteristic information acquisition unit that acquires characteristic information including solar radiation characteristics, a long-term factor information acquisition unit that acquires long-term factor information that is a factor in reducing the introduction effect of the solar power generation system, a location information acquisition unit that acquires location information indicating the location where the solar power generation system is installed, an equipment information acquisition unit that acquires equipment information of the solar power generation system, an estimation unit that estimates the introduction effect of the solar power generation system based on at least the equipment information, the location information, and the characteristic information, and an output unit that outputs presentation information based on the introduction effect and the long-term factor information.

[0007] An estimation method according to one embodiment of the present invention is an estimation method executed by an estimation device that estimates the introduction effects of a solar power generation system, and acquires characteristic information including solar radiation characteristics, acquires long-term factor information that is a factor in reducing the introduction effects of the solar power generation system, acquires location information indicating the location where the solar power generation system is to be installed, acquires equipment information of the solar power generation system, estimates the introduction effects of the solar power generation system based on at least the equipment information, the location information, and the characteristic information, and outputs presentation information based on the introduction effects and the long-term factor information.

[0008] A program according to one aspect of the present invention is a program for causing a computer to execute the above estimation method. Effect of the Invention

[0009] According to one aspect of the present invention, it is possible to realize an estimation device or the like that can present more appropriate information including the introduction effect to a user. [Brief description of the drawings]

[0010] [Figure 1] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing a configuration of an introduction effect estimation system according to an embodiment. [Diagram 2] FIG. 2 is a block diagram illustrating a functional configuration of an introduction effect estimation device according to an embodiment. [Diagram 3]FIG. 3 is a sequence diagram showing the operation of the introduction effect estimation system according to the embodiment. [Figure 4] FIG. 4 is a flowchart showing the operation of collecting advance information in the introduction effect estimation device according to the embodiment. [Diagram 5] FIG. 5 is a flowchart showing an operation of estimating an introduction effect in the introduction effect estimation device according to the embodiment. [Figure 6] FIG. 6 is a diagram illustrating an example of an input screen displayed on the display unit according to the embodiment. [Figure 7] FIG. 7 is a diagram showing another example of the input screen displayed on the display unit according to the embodiment. [Figure 8] FIG. 8 is a diagram showing an example of an estimation result screen displayed on the display unit according to the embodiment. [Figure 9] FIG. 9 is a diagram showing another example of the estimation result screen displayed on the display unit according to the embodiment. [Figure 10] FIG. 10 is a flowchart showing the coefficient correction operation in the introduction effect estimation device according to the embodiment. [Figure 11] FIG. 11 is a sequence diagram showing the operation of the introduction effect estimation system according to the modified example of the embodiment. [Figure 12] FIG. 12 is a flowchart showing an operation of estimating an introduction effect in the introduction effect estimation device according to the modified embodiment. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS

[0011] (How the present invention was arrived at) Before describing the present invention, the background to the invention will be described.

[0012] The amount of power generated by a photovoltaic power generation device (hereinafter, simply referred to as the amount of power generated) can be roughly calculated mainly based on the solar radiation characteristics of the residential area (e.g., the amount of solar radiation) and the power generation efficiency of the photovoltaic power generation device, so when a photovoltaic power generation device is installed in a house, a simulation of the amount of power generated assuming that the photovoltaic power generation device is installed in the house is performed before the installation. The simulation results (implementation effects) are important data for users when considering whether or not to install a photovoltaic power generation device.

[0013] For example, the introduction effect includes the amount of power generation in a predetermined period (e.g., monthly or annually) and the amount of power generation, which can be important figures when a user considers whether to install a photovoltaic power generation device. Therefore, more accurate simulation of the amount of power generation is required, and various studies are being conducted to improve the accuracy of the simulation of the amount of power generation. The amount of power generation may be the amount of power sales when the generated power is sold, or may indicate the amount of power generation when the generated power is consumed by the user and purchased from a commercial power company.

[0014] At present, the simulation of the amount of power generation is performed using characteristic information including solar radiation characteristics based on the location where the photovoltaic power generation device is installed at the present time and equipment information of the photovoltaic power generation device. However, since the investment recovery of the photovoltaic power generation device takes a long time, it is desirable to estimate the introduction effect while considering long-term factors that may reduce the amount of power generation. Long-term factors are, for example, factors that reduce the introduction effect of the photovoltaic power generation device. Long-term factors are, for example, factors that reduce the introduction effect after the installation of the photovoltaic power generation device compared to the time of the simulation before the installation, and for example, factors that reduce the actual amount of power generation compared to the time of the simulation before the installation. Long-term factors include factors that suppress the output of the photovoltaic power generation device and factors that reduce the amount of power generation itself. Examples of long-term factors include factors due to congestion of the distribution system, factors due to disasters, and factors due to power outages.

[0015] Therefore, it is desirable to estimate the introduction effect by considering not only the introduction effect based on the current value based on the solar radiation characteristics, the characteristics of the photovoltaic power generation device, the past electricity bill, etc., but also the long-term factors that affect the amount of power generation. In other words, it is desirable to present more appropriate information including the introduction effect of the photovoltaic power generation device to the user by considering the long-term factors that affect the amount of power generation.

[0016] Therefore, the inventors of the present application conducted extensive research into an estimation device etc. capable of presenting more appropriate information, including the effect of introducing a photovoltaic power generation system, to a user, and invented the following estimation device etc. Specifically, they invented an estimation device etc. capable of calculating the degree of impact of long-term factors and estimating the effect of introducing a photovoltaic power generation system according to the degree of impact.

[0017] The numerical values, shapes, components, the arrangement and connection of the components, steps, and the order of steps shown in the following embodiments are merely examples and are not intended to limit the present invention.

[0018] In addition, each figure is a schematic diagram and is not necessarily illustrated precisely. Therefore, for example, the scales in each figure do not necessarily match. In addition, in each figure, substantially the same configurations are given the same reference numerals, and duplicated explanations are omitted or simplified.

[0019] Furthermore, in this specification, terms indicating relationships between elements such as the same, as well as numerical values ​​and numerical ranges, are not expressions that only indicate a strict meaning, but are expressions that include a substantially equivalent range, for example, a difference of about a few percent (or about 10%).

[0020] (Embodiment) Hereinafter, the introduction effect estimation device and the like according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. 1 and FIG.

[0021] [1. Configuration of the introduction effect estimation system] First, the configuration of an introduction effect estimation system according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to Figures 1 and 2. Figure 1 is a diagram showing the configuration of an introduction effect estimation system 1 according to the present embodiment.

[0022] 1, the introduction effect estimation system 1 is an information processing system for estimating introduction effects in a case where a solar power generation device is assumed to be installed before the solar power generation device is installed, and includes an introduction effect estimation device 10, a terminal device 20, and a server device 30. The introduction effect estimation device 10, the terminal device 20, and the server device 30 are connected to each other via a network N so as to be able to communicate with each other.

[0023] The network N may include various networks such as the Internet, a communication network of an Internet service provider, a mobile phone network, a local area network, etc. The networks included in the network N may be a wired network or a wireless network.

[0024] The introduction effect estimation device 10 is an information processing device (e.g., a server device) for estimating the introduction effect when a photovoltaic power generation device is installed. The introduction effect estimation device 10 estimates the introduction effect by using long-term factor information in addition to characteristic information, location information, and facility information that have been conventionally used to estimate the introduction effect. The introduction effect estimation device 10 is an example of an estimation device.

[0025] FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing a functional configuration of the introduction effect estimation device 10 according to the present embodiment.

[0026] 2, the introduction effect estimation device 10 includes an acquisition unit 11, a communication unit 12, an estimation unit 13, a display control unit 14, a determination unit 15, an update unit 16, and a storage unit 17. The introduction effect estimation device 10 is realized, for example, by a microcomputer, but may also be realized by a processor. The introduction effect estimation device 10 includes, as functional components, the acquisition unit 11, the estimation unit 13, the display control unit 14, the determination unit 15, and the update unit 16, and each of these components is realized, for example, by a microcomputer or a processor (hardware) constituting the introduction effect estimation device 10 executing a computer program (software) stored in the storage unit 17.

[0027] The acquisition unit 11 acquires various information related to the photovoltaic power generation device or the installation of the photovoltaic power generation device via the communication unit 12. The acquisition unit 11 has a location information acquisition unit 11a that acquires location information, an equipment information acquisition unit 11b that acquires equipment information, a characteristic information acquisition unit 11c that acquires characteristic information, a long-term factor information acquisition unit 11d that acquires long-term factor information, and an electric power amount acquisition unit 11e that acquires an amount of electric power (for example, at least one of the amount of generated electric power and the amount of electric power sold) measured after the photovoltaic power generation device is installed. Note that the acquisition unit 11 does not necessarily have to have the electric power amount acquisition unit 11e.

[0028] The communication unit 12 is a communication module (communication circuit) for the introduction effect estimation device 10 to communicate with the terminal device 20 and the server device 30 via the network N. The communication unit 12 receives various information via the network N. The communication performed by the communication unit 12 is, for example, wired communication, but may be wireless communication. There is also no particular limitation on the communication standard used for the communication.

[0029] In addition, the communication unit 12 may be connected to an input device such as a button, a touch panel, or the like, and may be able to obtain various information without going through the network N.

[0030] The estimation unit 13 estimates the introduction effect of the photovoltaic power generation device for a predetermined period based on at least the facility information, the location information, and the characteristic information. In this embodiment, the estimation unit 13 further estimates the introduction effect based on the long-term factor information. The estimation unit 13 calculates at least one of an output suppression occurrence coefficient, a disaster occurrence coefficient, and a power outage occurrence coefficient based on the acquired long-term factor information, and estimates the introduction effect using the calculated at least one coefficient. The processing of the estimation unit 13 will be described later. In the following, the value estimated as the introduction effect will also be referred to as an introduction effect estimated value.

[0031] The output suppression occurrence coefficient is a coefficient that reflects cases where the power conditioning system (PCS) restricts output due to an increase in grid voltage, an increase in the temperature of the PCS, etc., in the introduction effect. The coefficient is set so that the more likely output suppression occurs, the lower the estimated power generation amount. The output suppression occurrence coefficient is a coefficient that indicates the degree of impact on power generation due to the occurrence of output suppression, and can also be said to be a coefficient that reflects power generation opportunity loss in the introduction effect.

[0032] The estimation unit 13 may calculate the output suppression occurrence coefficient based on, for example, the distribution line voltage value at the current time (before installation) of the distribution line to which the photovoltaic power generation device is to be connected and the upper limit voltage of the distribution line (for example, 107V). The estimation unit 13 may set the output suppression occurrence coefficient as, for example, a value obtained by dividing the current distribution line voltage value by the upper limit voltage. This makes it possible to reflect the impact of output suppression due to voltage constraints in the introduction effect. Note that the upper limit voltage is not limited to 107V and may be any voltage stipulated by laws such as the Electricity Business Act. The distribution line voltage value is an example of a system voltage.

[0033] The estimation unit 13 may also calculate the output suppression occurrence coefficient based on, for example, the installation capacity (surrounding PV (photovoltaics) installation capacity) of other photovoltaic power generation devices currently (before installation) connected to the distribution line to which the photovoltaic power generation device is to be connected, and the distribution line capacity of the distribution line. The estimation unit 13 may use, for example, a value (installation rate of photovoltaic power generation devices) obtained by dividing the surrounding PV installation capacity at the present time by the distribution line capacity as the output suppression occurrence coefficient. This allows the impact of output suppression due to current constraints to be reflected in the introduction effect. The installation rate of photovoltaic power generation devices may be, for example, a value obtained by dividing the number of houses in the vicinity where photovoltaic power generation devices are installed by the number of facilities such as houses in the vicinity. The surrounding PV installation capacity is information indicating the available capacity of the system around the point where the photovoltaic power generation device is installed, and the number of houses where photovoltaic power generation devices are installed is an example of the installation degree of photovoltaic power generation devices.

[0034] The estimation unit 13 may also calculate the output suppression occurrence coefficient based on the output restriction based on the output control instruction from the electric utility (e.g., general power transmission and distribution utility, power distribution utility, etc.) that manages the power grid. The estimation unit 13 may calculate the output suppression occurrence coefficient by dividing the current number of output control times for the capacity and installation area of ​​the photovoltaic power generation device by the number of output control times nationwide, for example. This allows the impact of output control by the electric utility to be reflected in the introduction effect.

[0035] Furthermore, the estimation unit 13 may calculate the output suppression occurrence coefficient based on, for example, surrounding building information indicating information on surrounding buildings where the photovoltaic power generation device is installed. The surrounding building information includes information indicating surrounding vacant lots, information indicating urban areas, and the like. The estimation unit 13 may use, for example, a value obtained by dividing the area of ​​the surrounding vacant lots by the area of ​​the surrounding area as the output suppression occurrence coefficient. This allows the introduction effect to reflect the impact of a building being erected on the vacant lot in the future, which casts a shadow and reduces the amount of solar radiation.

[0036] In this way, the estimation unit 13 calculates the output suppression occurrence coefficient based on at least one of the distribution line voltage value and the upper limit voltage of the distribution line, the surrounding PV installation capacity and the distribution line capacity of the distribution line, the surrounding building information, and the number of output control. The distribution line voltage value and the upper limit voltage of the distribution line, the surrounding PV installation capacity, and the distribution line capacity of the distribution line are examples of power system information.

[0037] The disaster occurrence coefficient is a coefficient for reflecting the impact of disasters in the introduction effect, since a disaster may result in a situation where power cannot be generated or sold. The disaster occurrence coefficient can also be said to be a coefficient that indicates the degree of impact of a disaster on the amount of power generated. The coefficient is set so that the more likely a disaster is to occur, the lower the estimated amount of power generated. Disasters include floods, earthquakes, etc., and can be obtained, for example, from a hazard map, etc.

[0038] The estimation unit 13 may calculate the disaster occurrence coefficient based on, for example, the disaster risk of the target area and the average disaster risk of a wide area (e.g., a city) including the target area. The estimation unit 13 may set the disaster occurrence coefficient to, for example, a value obtained by dividing the disaster risk of the target area at the current time by the maximum disaster risk or the average disaster risk (however, the disaster occurrence coefficient is set to 1 or less). This allows the impact of being unable to generate power or having output curtailed due to a disaster to be reflected in the introduction effect. The disaster occurrence coefficient may be calculated using a disaster occurrence probability based on the number of disasters that have occurred in the target area in the past and the number of disasters that have occurred in the wide area. The disaster risk of the target area is an example of disaster occurrence information of a location.

[0039] In this manner, the estimation unit 13 calculates the disaster occurrence coefficient based on disaster information including at least one of disaster occurrence information and disaster occurrence probability.

[0040] The power outage occurrence coefficient is a coefficient that reflects the impact of power outages in the introduction effect, since a power outage can cause the PCS to stop functioning, making it impossible to sell electricity. The coefficient is set so that the estimated power generation amount decreases the more likely power outages are to occur. The power outage occurrence coefficient can also be said to be a coefficient that reflects the opportunity loss to sell electricity due to power outages in the introduction effect.

[0041] The estimation unit 13 may calculate the power outage occurrence coefficient based on, for example, the number of power outages in the target district and the number of power outages in the entire area. The estimation unit 13 may use, for example, the number of power outages in a predetermined period in the target district divided by the number of power outages in the area in the predetermined period as the power outage occurrence coefficient. For example, the power outage occurrence coefficient is calculated based on past power outage records. This makes it possible to reflect the impact of a case in which electricity cannot be sold due to a power outage in the introduction effect. The number of power outages in the target district and the number of power outages in the area are examples of a power outage history that occurred at a location in the past.

[0042] In this manner, the estimation unit 13 calculates the power outage occurrence coefficient based on the power outage history.

[0043] Each coefficient may be calculated by dividing two values ​​and multiplying the result by a predetermined coefficient (eg, a correction coefficient set by the update unit 16).

[0044] The calculation method of each coefficient is not limited to the above. For example, in the case of the output suppression occurrence coefficient, a table is set in which the current distribution line voltage value or the current surrounding PV installation capacity is associated with the output suppression occurrence coefficient, and the coefficient according to the current situation may be set based on the table. Also, as long as each coefficient is set using the current or past performance, each coefficient may be set by any other method.

[0045] In the above, an example has been shown in which each coefficient has a large value when the amount of power generation is small, but each coefficient may have a small value when the amount of power generation is small.

[0046] In addition, each piece of information for calculating each coefficient (e.g., distribution line voltage value, upper limit voltage, surrounding PV installation capacity, distribution line capacity, number of houses, surrounding building information, disaster risk, disaster occurrence probability, number of power outages, number of output controls, etc.) may be included in the long-term factor information.

[0047] The display control unit 14 is connected to the terminal device 20 so as to be able to communicate with it (for example, through the communication unit 12), and controls the information displayed on the display unit 21 of the terminal device 20. For example, the display control unit 14 outputs presentation information based on the introduction effect and long-term factor information to the display unit 21, thereby causing the presentation information to be displayed on the display unit 21. The display control unit 14 is an example of an output unit.

[0048] The determination unit 15 calculates the actual introduction effect (introduction effect actual value) from the amount of power generated and the amount of power sold acquired by measurement after the photovoltaic power generation device is installed, and compares the calculated actual introduction effect with the introduction effect estimated by the estimation unit 13 (introduction effect estimated value). The determination unit 15 compares the introduction effect actual value with the introduction effect estimated value to determine whether the introduction effect actual value exceeds or falls short of the introduction effect estimated value. For example, the determination unit 15 may determine that the introduction effect actual value exceeds the introduction effect estimated value when the introduction effect actual value is higher than the introduction effect estimated value by a predetermined value or more, and may determine that the introduction effect actual value falls short of the introduction effect estimated value when the introduction effect actual value is lower than the introduction effect estimated value by a predetermined value or more. Note that the determination unit 15 may determine only whether the introduction effect actual value exceeds or falls short of the introduction effect estimated value.

[0049] The update unit 16 updates at least one of the coefficients for reflecting long-term factors in the introduction effect based on the determination result of the determination unit 15.

[0050] The storage unit 17 is a storage device that stores various information used for various processes in the introduction effect estimation device 10, computer programs executed by the introduction effect estimation device 10, etc. The storage unit 17 may store, for example, characteristic information, long-term factor information, etc., or may store the introduction effect estimated by the estimation unit 13. The long-term factor information here may include each coefficient. The storage unit 17 is realized, for example, by a HDD (Hard Disk Drive), but may also be realized by a semiconductor memory or the like.

[0051] The introduction effect estimation device 10 may be connected to a display device (not shown) and configured to present the estimation results to a user (administrator, developer, etc.) around the introduction effect estimation device 10, for example.

[0052] 1 again, the terminal device 20 is a terminal device owned by a client, a facility owner, a PPA (Power Purchase Agreement) company, or the like who is considering installing a photovoltaic power generation device. The terminal device 20 has a display unit 21 (see FIG. 6, etc., described later) that displays information from the introduction effect estimation device 10, a reception unit (e.g., a button, a touch panel, a microphone, etc.) (not shown) that receives operations from a user, and the like.

[0053] The display unit 21 displays the introduction effect of the photovoltaic power generation system estimated by the introduction effect estimation device 10. The display unit 21 is, for example, but not limited to, a liquid crystal display device. Note that the terminal device 20 may include other components for presenting presentation information, such as a sound output unit (for example, a speaker), instead of the display unit 21 or together with the display unit 21.

[0054] The terminal device 20 may be a stationary device such as a PC (Personal Computer) or a portable device such as a smartphone.

[0055] The server device 30 is an information processing device that manages characteristic information including solar radiation characteristics of each region, and long-term factor information such as power outage history, power system information, disaster information, etc. The server device 30 may include, for example, an information processing device managed by each business such as a weather information distribution business or a power transmission and distribution business, or may include an information processing device managed by a public institution such as a national or local government.

[0056] [2. Operation of the introduction effect estimation system] Next, the operation of the introduction effect estimation system 1 configured as above will be described with reference to Figs. 3 to 10. Fig. 3 is a sequence diagram showing the operation (estimation method) of the introduction effect estimation system 1 according to this embodiment. Note that Fig. 3 describes an example in which the server device 30 includes a first server device 31 and a second server device 32. The first server device 31 is an information processing device managed by a business operator, and the second server device 32 is an information processing device managed by a national or local government. Note that the operations shown in Figs. 3 to 5 are executed before a user installs a photovoltaic power generation device.

[0057] As shown in FIG. 3, the first server device 31 transmits characteristic information to the introduction effect estimation device 10, and the communication unit 12 of the introduction effect estimation device 10 receives the characteristic information via the network N (S101). The characteristic information acquisition unit 11c acquires the characteristic information received by the communication unit 12. The characteristic information acquisition unit 11c may acquire the characteristic information periodically, but the acquisition timing is not particularly limited. The acquired characteristic information includes, for example, solar radiation characteristics in a predetermined range. The predetermined range may be, for example, a prefecture unit or a country unit. The acquired characteristic information includes, for example, solar radiation characteristics for a predetermined period. The predetermined period may be, for example, a month unit or a year unit.

[0058] Next, the first server device 31 transmits the first long-term factor information to the introduction effect estimation device 10, and the communication unit 12 of the introduction effect estimation device 10 receives the first long-term factor information via the network N (S102). The long-term factor information acquisition unit 11d acquires the first long-term factor information received by the communication unit 12. The long-term factor information acquisition unit 11d may periodically acquire the first long-term factor information, but the acquisition timing is not particularly limited. The acquired first long-term factor information includes, for example, at least one of power outage information and power system information for a predetermined period or a predetermined range. The power outage information includes the number of times power outages have occurred. The power system information includes at least one of the current distribution line voltage value, upper limit voltage, current surrounding PV installation capacity, distribution line capacity, number of houses, number of output controls, etc.

[0059] Next, the second server device 32 transmits the second long-term factor information to the introduction effect estimation device 10, and the communication unit 12 of the introduction effect estimation device 10 receives the second long-term factor information via the network N (S103). The long-term factor information acquisition unit 11d acquires the second long-term factor information received by the communication unit 12. The long-term factor information acquisition unit 11d may acquire the second long-term factor information periodically, although the acquisition timing is not particularly limited. In addition, the acquired second long-term factor information includes, for example, disaster information within a predetermined range.

[0060] The processes of steps S101 to S103 may be executed in parallel, or may be executed at different timings. The order and frequency of executing the processes of steps S101 to S103 are not particularly limited. The second server device 32 may transmit the characteristic information to the introduction effect estimation device 10, and the communication unit 12 of the introduction effect estimation device 10 may receive the characteristic information via the network N. The first server device 31 may transmit the second long-term factor information to the introduction effect estimation device 10, and the communication unit 12 of the introduction effect estimation device 10 may receive the second long-term factor information via the network N, or the second server device 32 may transmit the first long-term factor information to the introduction effect estimation device 10, and the communication unit 12 of the introduction effect estimation device 10 may receive the first long-term factor information via the network N.

[0061] Next, when the terminal device 20 receives an input of location information indicating a location where the solar power generation device is to be installed from a user such as an owner, the terminal device 20 transmits the received location information to the introduction effect estimation device 10, and the communication unit 12 of the introduction effect estimation device 10 receives the location information via the network N (S104). The location information acquisition unit 11a acquires the location information received by the communication unit 12. Also, in step S104, equipment information of the solar power generation device to be installed may be acquired together with the location information. That is, in step S104, when the terminal device 20 receives an input of equipment information of the solar power generation device from a user, the terminal device 20 transmits the received equipment information to the introduction effect estimation device 10, and the communication unit 12 of the introduction effect estimation device 10 may receive the equipment information via the network N. The equipment information acquisition unit 11b may acquire the equipment information received by the communication unit 12.

[0062] Next, the estimation unit 13 of the introduction effect estimation device 10 executes a first estimation process to estimate the introduction effect (provisional value of the introduction effect) of the photovoltaic power generation system when long-term factors are not taken into consideration (S105). The estimation unit 13 estimates the provisional value of the introduction effect based on the location information, equipment information, and characteristic information. The estimation unit 13 estimates the provisional value of the introduction effect based on the equipment information and characteristic information related to the location information. Any existing technology may be used as a method for calculating the provisional value of the introduction effect. Note that long-term factor information is not used to estimate the provisional value of the introduction effect.

[0063] Next, the display control unit 14 of the introduction effect estimation device 10 transmits presentation information for displaying the first estimation result to the terminal device 20, and the terminal device 20 acquires the presentation information (S106). The display unit 21 of the terminal device 20 displays the first estimation result and allows the user to confirm it.

[0064] Next, when the terminal device 20 receives an adjustment instruction indicating that an introduction effect taking long-term factors into consideration is to be estimated from the user via the reception unit, the terminal device 20 transmits the received adjustment instruction to the introduction effect estimation device 10, and the communication unit 12 of the introduction effect estimation device 10 receives the adjustment instruction (S107). The estimation unit 13 acquires the adjustment instruction received by the communication unit 12.

[0065] Next, the estimation unit 13 of the introduction effect estimation device 10 executes a second estimation process to estimate the introduction effect of the photovoltaic power generation system when long-term factors are taken into consideration (S108). The estimation unit 13 further estimates the introduction effect based on the long-term factor information (first long-term factor information and second long-term factor information in the example of FIG. 3). The estimation unit 13 estimates the introduction effect taking into consideration the long-term factors by adjusting (correcting) the provisional value of the introduction effect estimated in step S105 using a coefficient based on the long-term factor information.

[0066] Next, the display control unit 14 of the introduction effect estimation device 10 transmits presentation information for displaying the second estimation result to the terminal device 20, and the terminal device 20 acquires the presentation information (S109). The display unit 21 of the terminal device 20 displays the second estimation result and allows the user to confirm it.

[0067] This allows the user to check the introduction effect that reflects long-term factors. Since such introduction effect is considered to be closer to the introduction effect that can actually be obtained after installing a photovoltaic power generation device than when long-term factors are not reflected, it can be very useful information for the user in deciding whether or not to introduce a photovoltaic power generation device.

[0068] Next, the operation of the introduction effect estimation device 10 will be described with reference to Fig. 4 to Fig. 10. Fig. 4 is a flowchart showing the operation of collecting prior information (estimation method) in the introduction effect estimation device 10 according to the present embodiment. Fig. 4 shows the operation of acquiring characteristic information and long-term factor information before acquiring point information from the terminal device 20.

[0069] 4, the characteristic information acquisition unit 11c of the introduction effect estimation device 10 acquires characteristic information output from the first server device 31 and received by the communication unit 12 (S11). The characteristic information acquisition unit 11c stores the acquired characteristic information in the storage unit 17. Step S11 corresponds to step S101 shown in FIG.

[0070] Next, the long-term factor information acquisition unit 11d of the introduction effect estimation device 10 acquires the long-term factor information output from the server device 30 and received by the communication unit 12 (S12). The long-term factor information acquisition unit 11d stores the acquired long-term factor information in the storage unit 17. Step S12 corresponds to step S102 shown in FIG. 3.

[0071] In this way, by acquiring the characteristic information and the long-term factor information in advance (before acquiring the location information), it is possible to shorten the time from acquiring the location information to estimating the introduction effect. At least one of the characteristic information and the long-term factor information may be acquired after acquiring the location information. In this case, it is only necessary to acquire the characteristic information and the long-term factor information corresponding to the location based on the location information, so that the amount of communication can be reduced. Also, since the extraction process of the characteristic information and the long-term factor information by the estimation unit 13 can be omitted, the amount of processing by the estimation unit 13 can be reduced.

[0072] The order and frequency in which the processes of steps S11 and S12 are executed are not particularly limited. For example, the two processes may be executed in parallel, or may be executed at different times.

[0073] Fig. 5 is a flowchart showing an operation (estimation method) of estimating the introduction effect in the introduction effect estimation device 10 according to this embodiment. Fig. 6 is a diagram showing an example of an input screen displayed on the display unit 21 according to this embodiment. Fig. 7 is a diagram showing another example of an input screen displayed on the display unit 21 according to this embodiment. Fig. 6 shows an example of an input screen when selling all the power, and Fig. 7 shows an example of an input screen when selling surplus power.

[0074] As shown in FIG. 6, when the entire amount of electricity is sold, the display unit 21 displays a screen for inputting location information and facility information. Specifically, the display unit 21 includes a display for inputting the prefecture, city, ward, town, village, and address where the solar power generation device is planned to be installed in order to obtain solar radiation characteristics, solar power generation potential, and long-term factors, and a display for inputting the panel capacity, installation orientation, and installation angle of the solar power generation device to be installed in order to predict the amount of power generated. Note that FIG. 6 may include a display for inputting the electricity selling price. Also, instead of the electricity selling price, a display for inputting the certification year of FIT (Feed-in Tariff) or FIP (Feed-in Premium) may be included. The panel capacity, installation orientation, and installation angle are examples of facility information.

[0075] As shown in FIG. 7, when selling surplus electricity, a display for inputting information on self-consumption is added to the display unit 21 in addition to the input screen shown in FIG. 6. Specifically, a display for inputting aging information on the load equipment, electricity charges, etc. may be added. A display for inputting multiple pieces of aging information, electricity charges, etc. may be added. Furthermore, a display for inputting information on electricity usage and installation location may be added. Information on the installation location is used to estimate electricity usage, and for example, a display for inputting information indicating whether the installation location is residential or non-residential, information indicating the family structure, ages of children, etc. if the installation location is residential, information indicating a business plan, etc. may be added.

[0076] When the user inputs information for each item and operates the execute button, the terminal device 20 outputs, to the introduction effect estimation device 10, location information and facility information based on the input information.

[0077] 5, the location information acquisition unit 11a of the introduction effect estimation device 10 acquires location information output from the terminal device 20 and received by the communication unit 12 (S21). The location information acquisition unit 11a stores the acquired location information in the storage unit 17. In addition, the equipment information acquisition unit 11b of the introduction effect estimation device 10 may acquire equipment information transmitted from the terminal device 20 and received by the communication unit 12. The equipment information acquisition unit 11b stores the acquired equipment information in the storage unit 17. Step S21 corresponds to step S104 shown in FIG. 3.

[0078] Next, the estimation unit 13 extracts characteristic information and long-term factor information from the storage unit 17 (S22). The estimation unit 13 extracts characteristic information and long-term factor information of a location (or a predetermined area including the location) based on the location information from the characteristic information and long-term factor information stored in the storage unit 17. The estimation unit 13 extracts, for example, solar radiation characteristics including the amount of solar radiation for each predetermined period (for example, one hour, one day, one month, etc.) from the storage unit 17. Note that although the estimation unit 13 extracts the characteristic information and long-term factor information from the storage unit 17 in step S22, it may also extract the long-term factor information from the storage unit 17 after step S25.

[0079] Next, the estimation unit 13 calculates an introduction effect estimate based on the facility information and the extracted characteristic information (S23). The introduction effect estimate here corresponds to the provisional value of the introduction effect. The estimation unit 13 calculates the amount of power generated in a predetermined period (e.g., month) in the photovoltaic power generation device based on the solar radiation characteristics and the facility information. The estimation unit 13 may calculate the amount of power generated from the solar radiation characteristics for a period shorter than a month (e.g., every hour) and tally it up for a month. Then, the estimation unit 13 multiplies the amount of power generated for the month by the electricity selling price to calculate the monetary amount of the introduction effect. The estimation unit 13 may also calculate the monetary amount of the introduction effect based on the data period of the solar radiation characteristics and the data period of the electricity selling price.

[0080] 7, when the electricity bill and the electricity usage amount are input, the estimation unit 13 may calculate, for example, the electricity bill reduction effect. The estimation unit 13 may store the calculated generated power amount and the introduction effect estimation value in the storage unit 17. Step S23 corresponds to step S105 shown in FIG. 3. The electricity selling price may be stored in advance in the storage unit 17, or may be received by the characteristic information acquisition unit 11c from the server device 30.

[0081] Next, the display control unit 14 outputs the introduction effect estimate estimated by the estimation unit 13 in step S23 to the terminal device 20 via the communication unit 12 (S24). The display control unit 14 transmits presentation information for presenting the introduction effect estimate to the terminal device 20 via the communication unit 12. The display control unit 14 may also include long-term factor information in the presentation information. Step S24 corresponds to step S106 shown in Fig. 3.

[0082] Fig. 8 is a diagram showing an example of an estimation result screen displayed on the display unit 21 according to the present embodiment. The "circle" shown in Fig. 8 means that some information related to that item is displayed. The estimation result screen shown in Fig. 8 is an example of a screen that displays presented information based on the introduction effect and long-term factor information.

[0083] As shown in FIG. 8, the display unit 21 displays a graph and a numerical value showing the monthly predicted power generation amount, which is the monthly power generation amount calculated by the estimation unit 13, and the monetary amount of the introduction effect. In addition, when the presented information includes long-term factor information, the display unit 21 displays (for example, displays in text format) the long-term factor information. In the example of FIG. 8, surrounding information (for example, grid congestion degree, shadow effect), power outage information (for example, the number of power outages occurring in a predetermined period), and disaster information (for example, risk due to floods and earthquakes) are displayed as the long-term factor information. Note that it is sufficient to display at least one of the surrounding information, power outage information, and disaster information. In this way, the information showing the introduction effect and the information showing the long-term factor included in the long-term factor information may be displayed at the same time (for example, side by side). In other words, the presented information may include the introduction effect and the information showing the long-term factor included in the long-term factor information.

[0084] An icon for issuing an instruction to take long-term factor information into consideration is also displayed on the display unit 21. By operating the icon, input information (corresponding to the adjustment instruction shown in FIG. 3) is output from the terminal device 20 to the introduction effect estimation device 10.

[0085] The long-term factor information (text information) may be displayed at the same time as displaying an estimated introduction effect value that does not take long-term factors into account, or may be displayed when an operation to display text information is received from a user. The long-term factor information may also include information related to self-consumption in the case of self-consumption. For example, when a change in the amount of self-consumption is predicted, information indicating the change in the amount of self-consumption may be included. The information may be acquired from the terminal device 20, for example.

[0086] Although not shown, the power selling price may be changed with a slide bar to change the graph. In other words, the power selling price may be selectable. Although a graph of the monthly predicted power generation amount is displayed in FIG. 8, a graph of the monthly predicted power selling income may be displayed. When information on self-consumption is input, a monthly or yearly predicted amount (monthly predicted amount or yearly predicted amount) indicating the amount of money if the monthly predicted power selling amount, monthly predicted self-consumption amount, or monthly predicted self-consumption amount were purchased from commercial power may be displayed.

[0087] 5 again, next, the estimation unit 13 acquires input information from the terminal device 20 (S25). The input information here includes an adjustment instruction. Step S25 corresponds to step S107 shown in FIG.

[0088] Next, the estimation unit 13 adjusts the introduction effect estimate value to take into account the long-term factors based on the long-term factor information (S26). Step S26 corresponds to step S108 shown in FIG.

[0089] The estimation unit 13 calculates a coefficient for adjusting the estimated introduction effect based on the long-term factor information. The coefficient to be used for adjusting the estimated introduction effect may be preset or may be selected by the user via the terminal device 20.

[0090] The estimation unit 13 may, for example, based on the location information, extract (read) from the storage unit 17 the distribution line voltage value at the current time corresponding to the location and the upper limit voltage, and calculate the output suppression occurrence coefficient by dividing the extracted distribution line voltage value at the current time by the upper limit voltage. Also, the estimation unit 13 may, for example, based on the location information, extract (read) from the storage unit 17 the surrounding PV installation capacity at the current time corresponding to the location and the distribution line capacity, and calculate the output suppression occurrence coefficient by dividing the extracted surrounding PV installation capacity at the current time by the distribution line capacity. Also, the estimation unit 13 may, for example, based on the location information, extract (read) from the storage unit 17 the number of output controls for a predetermined period including the current time corresponding to the location, and the number of output controls for a predetermined area or the entire country for the predetermined period, and calculate the output suppression occurrence coefficient by dividing the extracted number of output controls by the number of output controls for the predetermined area or the entire country. The disaster occurrence coefficient and the power outage occurrence coefficient are also calculated in the same manner as described above.

[0091] For each coefficient, one value (a value commonly used for each month and each year) may be calculated, or a different value may be set for each month or year. For example, when the distribution line voltage value or surrounding PV installation capacity differs from month to month or year to year, or when the occurrence rate of disasters or power outages differs, the output suppression occurrence coefficient, disaster occurrence coefficient, or power outage occurrence coefficient may be calculated for each month or year.

[0092] Then, the estimation unit 13 estimates the introduction effect based on the long-term factor information by adjusting the introduction effect estimate value (provisional value of the introduction effect) calculated in step S23 to a smaller value based on at least one of the calculated output suppression occurrence coefficient, disaster occurrence coefficient, and power outage occurrence coefficient. The estimation unit 13 calculates (adjusts) the power generation amount considering the long-term factors by, for example, multiplying the monthly or annual power generation amount calculated in step S23 by a value (for example, 1-output suppression occurrence coefficient) obtained by subtracting the coefficient from 1. When using each of the output suppression occurrence coefficient, disaster occurrence coefficient, and power outage occurrence coefficient, the estimation unit 13 may multiply the provisional value of the introduction effect by each of (1-output suppression occurrence coefficient), (1-disaster occurrence coefficient), and (1-power outage occurrence coefficient), or may calculate one coefficient from (1-output suppression occurrence coefficient), (1-disaster occurrence coefficient), and (1-power outage occurrence coefficient), and multiply the calculated coefficient by the provisional value of the introduction effect. In the above, the coefficient is a value obtained by subtracting 1 from the coefficient, but the coefficient may be adjusted by α, for example, 1-coefficient+α or 1-coefficient×α.

[0093] Then, the estimation unit 13 multiplies the adjusted amount of generated power by the power selling price to calculate an estimated introduction effect (monetary introduction effect) that takes long-term factors into consideration. Note that, although an example of adjusting the amount of generated power has been shown, the estimation unit 13 may multiply the amount of generated power by the power selling price, and then adjust the multiplied value using any of the above coefficients.

[0094] Next, the display control unit 14 outputs the introduction effect estimation value estimated by the estimation unit 13 in step S26 to the terminal device 20 via the communication unit 12 (S27). The display control unit 14 transmits presentation information for presenting the adjusted introduction effect estimation value to the terminal device 20. Step S27 corresponds to step S109 shown in Fig. 3.

[0095] Fig. 9 is a diagram showing another example of the estimation result screen displayed on the display unit 21 according to the present embodiment. The estimation result screen shown in Fig. 9 is an example of a screen displaying presentation information for presenting the introduction effect based on the long-term factor information ("annual forecast power generation amount" in Fig. 9).

[0096] As shown in FIG. 9, the display unit 21 displays a graph and a numerical value showing the annual predicted power generation amount, which is the annual power generation amount calculated by the estimation unit 13, and the monetary amount of the introduction effect. For example, information that does not take long-term factors into consideration ("Monthly predicted power generation amount" in FIG. 9) and information that takes long-term factors into consideration ("Yearly predicted power generation amount" in FIG. 9) are simultaneously displayed on the same screen. In addition, by simultaneously displaying surrounding information, power outage information, and disaster information on the same screen, it is possible to understand what long-term factors are taken into consideration in calculating the annual predicted power generation amount, thereby supporting the user's understanding. Note that while a graph of the annual predicted power generation amount is displayed in FIG. 9, a graph of the annual predicted electricity sales income may be displayed. In addition, when information on self-consumption is input, the annual predicted electricity sales amount, the annual predicted self-consumption amount, or the annual predicted amount of money indicating the amount of money if the annual predicted self-consumption amount is purchased from commercial electricity may be displayed.

[0097] In this way, the effects of installing a solar power generation system are estimated while taking into account long-term factors and presented to the user, thereby providing the user with information that is useful for deciding whether to install a solar power generation system, which has a long-term payback period.

[0098] Next, an operation for updating a correction coefficient when the correction coefficient is used to calculate each coefficient will be described with reference to Fig. 10. Fig. 10 is a flowchart showing an update operation (estimation method) of the correction coefficient in the introduction effect estimation device 10 according to the present embodiment. The operation shown in Fig. 10 is executed after the photovoltaic power generation device is installed.

[0099] As shown in Fig. 10, the power amount acquiring unit 11e of the introduction effect estimation device 10 acquires the measured values ​​of the generated power amount and the sold power amount received by the communication unit 12 (S31). The power amount acquiring unit 11e acquires the actual measured values ​​of the generated power amount and the sold power amount in the installed photovoltaic power generation device by referring to the introduction effect estimated value considering long-term factors estimated by the process shown in Figs. 3 to 5 from the meter connected to the photovoltaic power generation device or the terminal device 20. Note that if the user sells all the power, only the generated power amount may be acquired in step S31, and if the user sells surplus power, only the sold power amount may be acquired in step S31.

[0100] Next, the estimation unit 13 calculates the actual introduction effect value based on at least one of the acquired amount of generated power and the amount of power sold, and the power selling price (S32). The estimation unit 13 may calculate the actual introduction effect value by multiplying at least one of the amount of generated power and the amount of power sold, and the power selling price, for example.

[0101] Next, the determination unit 15 determines whether or not the actual implementation effect value calculated in step S32 is smaller than a first threshold value (S33). The first threshold value is a numerical value (e.g., monetary amount) based on an estimated implementation effect value that takes long-term factors into consideration, and may be, for example, the estimated implementation effect value itself, or a value obtained by applying a predetermined coefficient to the estimated implementation effect value.

[0102] If the determination unit 15 determines that the actual introduction effect value is smaller than the first threshold value (Yes in S33), the update unit 16 updates the correction coefficients used in the calculation of each coefficient to a larger value (S34). A predetermined value may be set as the update amount, or a larger value may be used as the difference between the actual introduction effect value and the first threshold value increases. Note that here, only the coefficients used when calculating the estimated introduction effect value taking long-term factors into consideration may be updated.

[0103] Furthermore, when the determination unit 15 determines that the actual introduction effect value is equal to or greater than the first threshold value (No in S33), it further determines whether or not the actual introduction effect value is equal to or greater than the second threshold value (S35). The second threshold value is a numerical value (e.g., monetary amount) based on the estimated introduction effect value taking into account long-term factors, and may be, for example, the estimated introduction effect value itself (i.e., the first threshold value and the second threshold value may be the same value), or may be a value obtained by applying a predetermined coefficient to the estimated introduction effect value (e.g., a value greater than the first threshold value).

[0104] If the determining unit 15 determines that the actual introduction effect value is equal to or greater than the second threshold value (Yes in S35), the updating unit 16 updates the correction coefficients used in the calculation of each coefficient to a smaller value (S36). A predetermined value may be set as the update amount, or a larger value may be used as the difference between the actual introduction effect value and the second threshold value increases. Note that here, only the coefficients used when calculating the estimated introduction effect value taking long-term factors into consideration may be updated.

[0105] Furthermore, when the determination unit 15 determines that the actual measured introduction effect value is less than the second threshold value (No in S35), the update unit 16 does not correct the coefficient.

[0106] The correction coefficients updated in steps S34 and S36 are stored in the storage unit 17 and are used the next time the estimation unit 13 estimates the introduction effect.

[0107] In this way, the correction coefficient is updated based on the actual measured value of the introduction effect, whereby the estimation accuracy of the estimated value of the introduction effect can be improved.

[0108] (Modification of the embodiment) The introduction effect estimation system according to this modification will be described below with reference to Figs. 11 and 12. Note that the following description will focus on the differences from the embodiment, and description of the same or similar content as in the embodiment will be omitted or simplified. The configuration of the introduction effect estimation system according to this modification may be similar to that of the introduction effect estimation system 1 according to the embodiment, and description thereof will be omitted. Also, the following description will be made using the reference numerals of the introduction effect estimation system 1 according to the embodiment.

[0109] Fig. 11 is a sequence diagram showing the operation (estimation method) of the introduction effect estimation system 1 according to this modification. Steps S101 to S104 are the same as those in Fig. 3, so the explanation will be omitted.

[0110] 11, when the estimation unit 13 of the introduction effect estimation device 10 acquires the location information, it executes an estimation process to estimate the introduction effect (introduction effect estimate value) of the photovoltaic power generation device when long-term factors are considered (S110). The estimation unit 13 estimates the introduction effect estimate value taking long-term factors into consideration based on the location information, the equipment information, the characteristic information, and the long-term factor information. The introduction effect estimate value taking long-term factors into consideration is calculated by calculating coefficients such as the output suppression occurrence coefficient to the introduction effect estimate value (provisional introduction effect value) not taking long-term factors into consideration, as in the embodiment.

[0111] Next, the display control unit 14 of the introduction effect estimation device 10 transmits presentation information for displaying the estimation result to the terminal device 20, and the terminal device 20 acquires the presentation information (S111). The presentation information transmitted in step S111 may be, for example, the same information as the presentation information transmitted in step S109 shown in FIG.

[0112] The display unit 21 of the terminal device 20 displays the estimated results and allows the user to confirm them, so that the user can confirm the introduction effect that reflects long-term factors.

[0113] In this way, the estimated introduction effect taking into consideration long-term factors may be calculated automatically (for example, without receiving an operation from the user) when the location information is acquired.

[0114] FIG. 12 is a flowchart showing an operation (estimation method) of estimating the introduction effect in the introduction effect estimation device 10 according to this modification.

[0115] 12, after calculating the estimated introduction effect without taking long-term factors into consideration in step S23, the estimation unit 13 continuously (automatically) executes step S26 without presenting the estimated introduction effect to the user. Note that in step S27, only the estimated introduction effect that takes long-term factors into consideration calculated in step S26 may be transmitted to the terminal device 20, or the estimated introduction effect that does not take long-term factors into consideration calculated in step S23 may also be transmitted to the terminal device 20.

[0116] In this manner, in the introduction effect estimation device 10, a series of operations from obtaining location information to calculating and outputting an introduction effect estimation value that also takes long-term factors into consideration may be continuously executed.

[0117] (Effects, etc.) As described above, the introduction effect estimation device 10 (an example of an estimation device) according to the first embodiment is an estimation device that estimates the introduction effect of a solar power generation system, and includes a characteristic information acquisition unit 11c that acquires characteristic information including solar radiation characteristics, a long-term factor information acquisition unit 11d that acquires long-term factor information that is a factor in reducing the introduction effect of the solar power generation system, a location information acquisition unit 11a that acquires location information indicating the location where the solar power generation system is to be installed, an equipment information acquisition unit 11b that acquires equipment information of the solar power generation system, an estimation unit 13 that estimates the introduction effect of the solar power generation system based on at least the equipment information, location information and characteristic information, and a display control unit 14 (an example of an output unit) that outputs presentation information based on the introduction effect and the long-term factor information.

[0118] As a result, since the presented information includes information based on long-term factor information that is a factor in reducing the effectiveness of introducing a photovoltaic power generation device, more appropriate information including the effectiveness of introduction can be presented to the user. By presenting such presented information, the user can consider installing a photovoltaic power generation device after checking the long-term factor information.

[0119] In addition, the introduction effect estimation device 10 of the second embodiment is the introduction effect estimation device 10 of the first embodiment, and the long-term factor information includes at least one of the available capacity of the grid around the location, the grid voltage, the degree of installation of the photovoltaic power generation equipment, the number of output control times, and surrounding building information.

[0120] This makes it possible to present information based on at least one of the available capacity of the grid, the grid voltage, the degree of installation of the photovoltaic power generation device, the number of output control times, and surrounding building information, thereby making it possible to present more appropriate information to the user.

[0121] Further, the introduction effect estimation device 10 according to the third aspect is the introduction effect estimation device 10 according to the second aspect, and the estimation unit 13 calculates a provisional value of the introduction effect based on the equipment information, the location information and the characteristic information, and estimates the introduction effect based on the long-term factor information by adjusting the provisional value based on at least one of the available capacity of the system, the system voltage, the installation degree, the number of output control times and the surrounding building information.

[0122] As a result, the provisional value is adjusted based on at least one of the available capacity of the grid, the grid voltage, the installation degree, the number of output control times, and the surrounding building information, so that the impact of output suppression can be reflected in the introduction effect. Therefore, the introduction effect reflecting the impact of output suppression can be presented to the user as more appropriate information.

[0123] In addition, the introduction effect estimation device 10 according to the fourth aspect is an introduction effect estimation device 10 according to any one of the first to third aspects, and the long-term factor information includes at least one of disaster occurrence information and disaster occurrence probability at a location.

[0124] This makes it possible to present information based on at least one of disaster occurrence information and disaster occurrence probability, so that more appropriate information can be presented to the user.

[0125] In addition, the introduction effect estimation device 10 according to the fifth aspect is the introduction effect estimation device 10 according to the fourth aspect, and the estimation unit 13 calculates a provisional value of the introduction effect based on the facility information, the location information, and the characteristic information, and estimates the introduction effect based on the long-term factor information by adjusting the provisional value based on at least one of the disaster occurrence information and the disaster occurrence probability.

[0126] In this way, the provisional value is adjusted based on at least one of the disaster occurrence information and the disaster occurrence probability, so that the impact of the disaster can be reflected in the introduction effect. Therefore, the introduction effect reflecting the impact of the disaster can be presented to the user as more appropriate information.

[0127] The introduction effect estimation device 10 according to a sixth aspect is the introduction effect estimation device 10 according to any one of the first to fifth aspects, and the long-term factor information includes a history of power outages that occurred at the location in the past.

[0128] This makes it possible to present information based on the power outage history, so that more appropriate information can be presented to the user.

[0129] In addition, the introduction effect estimation device 10 according to the seventh aspect is the introduction effect estimation device 10 according to the sixth aspect, and the estimation unit 13 calculates a provisional value of the introduction effect based on the equipment information, the location information, and the characteristic information, and estimates the introduction effect based on the long-term factor information by adjusting the provisional value based on the power outage history.

[0130] In this way, the provisional value is adjusted based on the power outage history, so that the impact of a power outage can be reflected in the introduction effect. Therefore, the introduction effect that reflects the impact of a power outage can be presented to the user as more appropriate information.

[0131] In addition, the introduction effect estimation device 10 of the eighth aspect is the introduction effect estimation device 10 of the third aspect, and the estimation unit 13 calculates an output suppression occurrence coefficient indicating the degree of impact due to the occurrence of output suppression based on at least one of the available capacity of the system, the system voltage, the installation degree, and the surrounding building information, and estimates the introduction effect based on the long-term factor information by adjusting the provisional value smaller based on the calculated output suppression occurrence coefficient.

[0132] This makes it possible to present to the user more appropriate information in which the effect of the introduction is reflected in the impact of output suppression.

[0133] In addition, the introduction effect estimation device 10 according to the ninth aspect is the introduction effect estimation device 10 according to the fifth aspect, in which the estimation unit 13 calculates a disaster occurrence coefficient indicating the degree of impact due to the occurrence of a disaster based on at least one of the disaster occurrence information and the disaster occurrence probability, and estimates the introduction effect based on the long-term factor information by adjusting the provisional value downward based on the calculated disaster occurrence coefficient.

[0134] This makes it possible to present to the user more appropriate information that reflects the effects of the disaster on the effectiveness of the implementation.

[0135] In addition, the introduction effect estimation device 10 according to the tenth aspect is the introduction effect estimation device 10 according to the seventh aspect, and the estimation unit 13 calculates a power outage occurrence coefficient indicating the degree of impact due to the occurrence of a power outage based on the power outage history, and estimates the introduction effect based on the long-term factor information by adjusting the provisional value downward based on the calculated power outage occurrence coefficient.

[0136] This makes it possible to present to the user more appropriate information that reflects the effects of power outages on the effectiveness of the implementation.

[0137] Moreover, the introduction effect estimation device 10 according to the eleventh aspect is the introduction effect estimation device 10 according to any one of the first to tenth aspects, in which the estimation unit 13 further estimates the introduction effect based on long-term factor information, and the presented information may include information indicating the introduction effect based on the long-term factor information.

[0138] This allows information to be presented that indicates the effect of introduction based on long-term factor information, making it possible to present information that is useful for the user in deciding whether to introduce a photovoltaic power generation device.

[0139] In addition, the introduction effect estimation device 10 according to the 12th aspect is the introduction effect estimation device 10 according to any one of the first to tenth aspects, and the presented information may include information indicating the introduction effect and information indicating long-term factors included in the long-term factor information.

[0140] This allows information indicating long-term factors to be presented, making it possible to present information that is useful for the user in deciding whether or not to introduce a photovoltaic power generation device.

[0141] In addition, the introduction effect estimation device 10 according to the thirteenth aspect is the introduction effect estimation device 10 according to any one of the first to twelfth aspects, and further includes an energy acquisition unit 11e that acquires at least one of the amount of power generated and the amount of power sold measured after the solar power generation device is installed, and a determination unit 15 that calculates an actual introduction effect of the solar power generation device based on at least one of the amount of power generated and the amount of power sold, and compares the actual introduction effect with the introduction effect based on long-term factor information.

[0142] As a result, when the comparison result is reflected in the method for estimating the introduction effect, an estimation device can be realized that can estimate the introduction effect of a photovoltaic power generation system more accurately.

[0143] Moreover, an estimation method according to a fourteenth aspect is an estimation method executed by an introduction effect estimation device 10 (an example of an estimation device) that estimates the introduction effect of a photovoltaic power generation device, and acquires characteristic information including solar radiation characteristics (S11), acquires long-term factor information that is a factor in reducing the introduction effect of the photovoltaic power generation device (S12), acquires location information indicating the location where the photovoltaic power generation device is installed (S21), acquires equipment information of the photovoltaic power generation device (S21), estimates the introduction effect of the photovoltaic power generation device based on at least the equipment information, location information and characteristic information (S23), and outputs presentation information based on the introduction effect and the long-term factor information (S24 or S27). Moreover, a program according to a fifteenth aspect is a program for causing a computer to execute the above estimation method.

[0144] As a result, the same effects as those of the introduction effect estimation device 10 described above are achieved.

[0145] (Other embodiments) Although the estimation device and the like according to one or more aspects have been described based on the embodiments, the present invention is not limited to these embodiments. As long as it does not deviate from the spirit of the present invention, various modifications conceived by a person skilled in the art to the present embodiment and forms constructed by combining components in different embodiments may also be included in the present invention.

[0146] For example, in the above-mentioned embodiment, the introduction effect based on the long-term factor information may be estimated by adjusting the provisional value of the introduction effect based on at least one of the available capacity of the grid, the grid voltage, the installation degree of the photovoltaic power generation device, and the surrounding building information. Also, the introduction effect based on the long-term factor information may be estimated by adjusting the provisional value based on the power outage history, or the introduction effect based on the long-term factor information may be estimated by adjusting the provisional value based on the power outage history. The adjustment is not limited to multiplying or dividing a coefficient, and may include, for example, adding or subtracting a value based on the long-term factor information.

[0147] Furthermore, for example, in the above-mentioned embodiments, a solar power generation system is given as an example of a private power generation system, but this is not limited to this, and the private power generation system may be, for example, a wind power generation system, a hydroelectric power generation system, a geothermal power generation system, a biomass power generation system, or a combination of these.

[0148] In the above embodiments, each component may be implemented by dedicated hardware or by executing a software program suitable for each component. Each component may be implemented by a program execution unit such as a CPU or processor reading and executing a software program recorded on a recording medium such as a hard disk or semiconductor memory.

[0149] In addition, the division of functional blocks in the block diagram is an example, and multiple functional blocks may be realized as one functional block, one functional block may be divided into multiple blocks, some functions may be transferred to other functional blocks, and the functions of multiple functional blocks having similar functions may be processed in parallel or in a time-sharing manner by a single piece of hardware or software.

[0150] Furthermore, the introduction effect estimation device according to the above-mentioned embodiments and the like may be realized as a single device, or may be realized by multiple devices. When the introduction effect estimation device is realized by multiple devices, the components of the introduction effect estimation device may be distributed in any manner among the multiple devices. When the introduction effect estimation device is realized by multiple devices, the communication method between the multiple devices is not particularly limited, and may be wireless communication or wired communication. Furthermore, wireless communication and wired communication may be combined between the devices.

[0151] Moreover, each of the components described in the above embodiments may be realized as software, or may be realized as an LSI, which is typically an integrated circuit. These may be individually integrated into one chip, or may be integrated into one chip to include some or all of them. Here, LSI is used, but it may be called IC, system LSI, super LSI, or ultra LSI depending on the degree of integration. Furthermore, the method of integration is not limited to LSI, and may be realized by a dedicated circuit (a general-purpose circuit that executes a dedicated program) or a general-purpose processor. After LSI manufacture, a programmable FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Array) or a reconfigurable processor that can reconfigure the connection or settings of circuit cells inside the LSI may be used. Furthermore, if an integrated circuit technology that replaces LSI appears due to the progress of semiconductor technology or a different derived technology, it is natural that the components may be integrated using that technology.

[0152] A system LSI is an ultra-multifunctional LSI manufactured by integrating multiple processing units on a single chip, and specifically, is a computer system that includes a microprocessor, a ROM (Read Only Memory), a RAM (Random Access Memory), etc. Computer programs are stored in the ROM. The system LSI achieves its functions by the microprocessor operating in accordance with the computer program.

[0153] Furthermore, one aspect of the present invention may be a computer program that causes a computer to execute each of the characteristic steps included in the estimation methods shown in FIGS.

[0154] Also, for example, the program may be a program to be executed by a computer. Another aspect of the present invention may be a computer-readable non-transitory recording medium on which such a program is recorded. For example, such a program may be recorded on a recording medium and distributed or circulated. For example, the distributed program may be installed in a device having another processor, and the program may be executed by the processor, thereby making it possible to cause the device to perform each of the above processes. [Explanation of symbols]

[0155] 1. Introduction effect estimation system 10. Introduction effect estimation device (estimation device) 11 Acquisition Department 11a Point information acquisition part 11b Equipment information acquisition department 11c Characteristics information acquisition section 11d Long-term Factor Information Acquisition Department 11e Electric energy acquisition part 12 Communications Department 13 Estimation part 14 Display control section (output section) 15 Judgment section 16 Update section 17 Memory section 20 Terminal Equipment 21 Display section 30 Server device 31 First server device 32 Second server device N Network

Claims

1. An estimation device for estimating an introduction effect of a solar power generation device, A characteristic information acquisition unit that acquires characteristic information including solar radiation characteristics; a long-term factor information acquisition unit that acquires long-term factor information that is a factor that reduces the introduction effect of the photovoltaic power generation device; a location information acquisition unit that acquires location information indicating a location where the solar power generation device is to be installed; An equipment information acquisition unit that acquires equipment information of the solar power generation device; an estimation unit that estimates the introduction effect of the photovoltaic power generation device based on at least the facility information, the location information, and the characteristic information; an output unit that outputs presentation information based on the introduction effect and the long-term factor information; Estimation device.

2. The long-term factor information includes at least one of the available capacity of the grid around the location, the grid voltage, the installation degree of the photovoltaic power generation device, the number of output control, and surrounding building information. The estimation device according to claim 1 .

3. The estimation unit calculates a provisional value of the introduction effect based on the facility information, the location information, and the characteristic information, and estimates the introduction effect based on the long-term factor information by adjusting the provisional value based on at least one of the available capacity of the grid, the grid voltage, the installation degree, the number of output control operations, and the surrounding building information. The estimation device according to claim 2 .

4. The long-term factor information includes at least one of disaster occurrence information and disaster occurrence probability of the location. The estimation device according to claim 1 .

5. The estimation unit calculates a provisional value of the introduction effect based on the facility information, the location information, and the characteristic information, and estimates the introduction effect based on the long-term factor information by adjusting the provisional value based on at least one of the disaster occurrence information and the disaster occurrence probability. The estimation device according to claim 4.

6. The long-term cause information includes a history of power outages that have occurred at the location in the past. The estimation device according to claim 1 .

7. The estimation unit calculates a provisional value of the introduction effect based on the facility information, the location information, and the characteristic information, and estimates the introduction effect based on the long-term factor information by adjusting the provisional value based on the power outage history. The estimation device according to claim 6.

8. The estimation unit calculates an output suppression occurrence coefficient indicating a degree of influence due to the occurrence of output suppression based on at least one of the available capacity of the grid, the grid voltage, the installation degree, and the surrounding building information, and estimates the introduction effect based on the long-term factor information by adjusting the provisional value smaller based on the calculated output suppression occurrence coefficient. The estimation device according to claim 3 .

9. The estimation unit calculates a disaster occurrence coefficient indicating a degree of impact due to the occurrence of a disaster based on at least one of the disaster occurrence information and the disaster occurrence probability, and estimates the introduction effect based on the long-term factor information by adjusting the provisional value smaller based on the calculated disaster occurrence coefficient. The estimation device according to claim 5 .

10. The estimation unit calculates a power outage occurrence coefficient indicating the degree of impact due to the occurrence of a power outage based on the power outage history, and estimates the introduction effect based on the long-term factor information by adjusting the provisional value smaller based on the calculated power outage occurrence coefficient. The estimation device according to claim 7.

11. The estimation unit further estimates the introduction effect based on the long-term factor information, The presented information includes information indicating the introduction effect based on the long-term factor information. The estimation device according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

12. The presented information includes information indicating the introduction effect and information indicating long-term factors included in the long-term factor information. The estimation device according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

13. Further, an electric power amount acquiring unit that acquires at least one of an amount of generated electric power and an amount of electric power sold that are measured after the photovoltaic power generation device is installed; a determination unit that calculates an actual introduction effect of the photovoltaic power generation device based on at least one of the amount of generated power and the amount of sold power, and compares the actual introduction effect with the introduction effect based on the long-term factor information. The estimation device according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

14. An estimation method executed by an estimation device that estimates an introduction effect of a photovoltaic power generation device, comprising: Acquire characteristic information including solar radiation characteristics, Acquire long-term factor information that is a factor that reduces the introduction effect of the solar power generation device, acquiring location information indicating a location where the solar power generation device is to be installed; Acquire facility information of the solar power generation device; Estimating the introduction effect of the photovoltaic power generation device based on at least the facility information, the location information, and the characteristic information; Output presentation information based on the introduction effect and long-term factor information Estimation method.

15. A program for causing a computer to execute the estimation method according to claim 14.

Images