Update plan forming device, update plan forming system, and update plan forming method

Abstract

To provide a technology for formulating an optimum infrastructure renewal plan whenever conditions of an infrastructure network change.SOLUTION: An update plan forming device comprises a failure adequacy calculation unit for calculating a failure adequacy that represents the adequacy of the occurrence of an infrastructure failure on the basis of failure performance data including information on the failure performance of the infrastructure and a failure rate of the infrastructure calculated based on attribute information of the infrastructure at the time of the failure of the infrastructure, a failure rate calculation unit for calculating a new failure rate of each infrastructure by updating the failure rate of the infrastructure according to the failure adequacy, and an update plan optimization calculation unit for calculating the update time of each infrastructure on the basis of the new failure rate of each infrastructure. The new failure rate of each infrastructure is calculated every time the failure of the infrastructure is detected or / and the attribute information of the infrastructure is changed, and plans for updating each infrastructure as needed on the basis of the calculated failure rate of each new infrastructure.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 2

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to a technology for an apparatus, a system, and a method capable of assisting in formulating a renewal plan for infrastructure such as water pipes.

Background Art

[0002] Infrastructure such as water pipes is required to maintain functions such as the supply of lifelines. However, since infrastructure deteriorates over time, its function may be impaired due to damage caused by aging or the like. Infrastructure managers such as waterworks bureaus update old infrastructure with new infrastructure at any time in order to prevent such damage. In recent years, a large amount of infrastructure built during the period of high economic growth has deteriorated over time, and a plan for efficient renewal is required.

[0003] As a conventional technique related to formulating an efficient infrastructure renewal plan, Patent Document 1 describes a technique for calculating the renewal introduction cost required for pipeline renewal and the maintenance cost incurred due to pipeline damage based on the attribute information of pipelines such as water pipes, and calculating the optimal pipeline renewal timing that minimizes the life cycle cost of the pipeline calculated from the renewal introduction cost and the maintenance cost. Further, Patent Document 2 describes a technique for calculating the life cycle cost based on the attribute information of pipelines and the actual performance information of the response cost associated with pipeline damage that occurred during a predetermined period, and formulating an accurate pipeline renewal plan that minimizes the life cycle cost.

Prior Art Documents

Patent Documents

[0004]

Patent Document 1

Patent Document 2

Summary of the Invention

Problems to be Solved by the Invention

[0005] According to Patent Documents 1 and 2, it is possible to formulate an optimal infrastructure renewal plan that minimizes the life cycle cost within a predetermined period starting from a certain point in time. However, in practice, after formulating the renewal plan, the conditions of the infrastructure network used for formulating the renewal plan may change due to the occurrence of damage or renewal of the infrastructure, and the renewal plan that was optimal at the time of formulation may become suboptimal during the predetermined period. In this case, it is necessary to correct the life cycle cost every time the conditions of the infrastructure network change and formulate an optimal infrastructure renewal plan at any time. However, in Patent Documents 1 and 2, since the maintenance cost used in the calculation of the life cycle cost is calculated using a fixed calculation formula regardless of the change in the conditions of the infrastructure network, there is a problem that the renewal plan cannot be corrected considering the change in the conditions of the infrastructure network.

[0006] The present invention has been made to solve the above problems, and an object of the present invention is to provide a technique for formulating an optimal infrastructure renewal plan at any time whenever the conditions of the infrastructure network change.

Means for Solving the Problems

[0007] In order to achieve the above object, the renewal plan formulation device of the present invention includes a damage performance data including information on the damage performance of the infrastructure, and a damage rate of the infrastructure calculated based on the attribute information of the infrastructure at the time when the infrastructure is damaged, and calculates a damage validity representing the validity of the occurrence of damage of the infrastructure based on the damage rate calculation unit, and updates the damage rate of the infrastructure according to the damage validity, and calculates a new damage rate for each infrastructure, and has an update plan optimization calculation unit that calculates the update timing of each infrastructure based on the new damage rate of each infrastructure, and calculates the new damage rate for each infrastructure every time the detection of damage of the infrastructure or / and the change of the attribute information of the infrastructure is performed, and based on the calculated new damage rate of each infrastructure, the update plan of each infrastructure is formulated at any time, and is configured as a renewal plan formulation device characterized by this.

Effects of the Invention

[0008] According to the present invention, an optimal infrastructure update plan can be formulated at any time whenever the conditions of the infrastructure network change.

Brief Description of the Drawings

[0009]

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3A

Figure 3B

Figure 3C

Figure 3D

Figure 4A

Figure 4B

Figure 5

Figure 6

Figure 7A

Figure 7B

Figure 8

Figure 9

Figure 10

Best Mode for Carrying Out the Invention

[0010] Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. The following description and drawings are examples for explaining the present invention, and for the sake of clarity of explanation, appropriate omissions and simplifications have been made. The present invention can also be implemented in various other forms. Unless otherwise particularly limited, each component may be singular or plural.

[0011] The positions, sizes, shapes, ranges, etc. of the respective components shown in the drawings may not represent the actual positions, sizes, shapes, ranges, etc. in order to facilitate understanding of the invention. For this reason, the present invention is not necessarily limited to the positions, sizes, shapes, ranges, etc. disclosed in the drawings.

[0012] In the following description, various types of information may be described using expressions such as "database", "table", "list", etc., but the various types of information may be represented by other data structures. In order to indicate independence from the data structure, "XX table", "XX list", etc. may be referred to as "XX information". When explaining identification information, when expressions such as "identification information", "identifier", "name", "ID", "number", etc. are used, these can be replaced with each other.

[0013] When there are a plurality of components having the same or similar functions, they may be described with the same reference numeral and different subscripts. However, when it is not necessary to distinguish these plurality of components, the subscripts may be omitted in the description.

[0014] In the following description, there may be cases where the processes performed by executing a program are described. However, the program is executed by a processor (e.g., CPU, GPU (Graphics Processing Unit)), and in order to perform the defined processes while appropriately using a storage resource (e.g., memory) and / or an interface device (e.g., communication port), etc., the subject of the process may be the processor. Similarly, the subject of the process performed by executing the program may be a controller, device, system, computer, or node having a processor. The subject of the process performed by executing the program may be an arithmetic unit, and may include a dedicated circuit (e.g., FPGA (Field-Programmable Gate Array) or ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit)) that performs a specific process.

[0015] The program may be installed from a program source into a device such as a computer. The program source may be, for example, a program distribution server or a computer-readable storage medium. When the program source is a program distribution server, the program distribution server includes a processor and a storage resource for storing the program to be distributed, and the processor of the program distribution server may distribute the program to be distributed to other computers. Also, in the following description, two or more programs may be realized as one program, or one program may be realized as two or more programs.

[0016] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing the configuration of an update plan creation system 100 according to the present invention. This update plan creation system 100 is a system that creates an optimal infrastructure update plan at any time whenever the conditions of the infrastructure network change due to the occurrence of damage or update of the infrastructure. Here, the infrastructure refers to, for example, something having a network shape such as a water pipe, a sewer pipe, a gas pipe, or a road. Also, the damage is, for example, a state in which damage has occurred to the infrastructure due to deterioration of the infrastructure, and the function of the infrastructure such as providing a lifeline is impaired, and it may be paraphrased as an accident, a failure, etc.

[0017] The update plan formulation system 100 includes an update plan formulation device 101, an input device 102 connected to the update plan formulation device 101, and an output device 103.

[0018] The update plan formulation device 101 can be realized by a general computer as hardware. The computer includes an arithmetic device (processor) 104 composed of a CPU (Central Processing Unit), a GPU (Graphics Processing Unit), etc., a main memory device 105 composed of volatile memory devices such as a ROM (Read Only Memory) and a RAM (Random Access Memory), and an auxiliary storage device 106 composed of non-volatile memory devices such as an HDD (Hard Disc Drive) and an SSD (Solid State Drive).

[0019] The input device 102 is composed of a general input device as hardware that accepts input of information such as a keyboard, a mouse, and a microphone. The input device accepts input of information from a user (infrastructure administrator) who formulates an infrastructure update plan and makes decisions on updates.

[0020] The output device 103 is composed of a general output device as hardware that outputs information in the form of a screen, sound, etc. The output device outputs the calculation result as useful information for the infrastructure administrator to formulate an infrastructure update plan and make decisions on updates.

[0021] Figure 2 is a diagram showing the functions of the update plan formulation device 101. This function is realized, for example, by a program and data stored in the auxiliary storage device 106 being read into the main memory device 105 at any time, and the processor 104 reading and executing the program.

[0022] The update plan formulation device 101 includes a storage unit 201 and a calculation unit 202. The storage unit 201 is composed of, for example, an auxiliary storage device 106. The calculation unit 202 is configured as, for example, a program executed by a processor 104.

[0023] The storage unit 201 stores damage record data 203 including identification information (ID) of damaged infrastructure and information on the damage date for each damage record, damage validity data 204 including information on the validity degree for each damage record calculated by the damage validity calculation unit 207, infrastructure network data 205 including attribute information of each infrastructure constituting the infrastructure network, and update plan data 206 including information on the update plan formulated by the update plan optimization calculation unit 209. Here, the damage validity refers to the validity degree of the occurrence of infrastructure damage based on the predicted value of the damage rate that has already been calculated at that time. The calculation unit 202 includes a damage validity calculation unit 207 that calculates the damage validity with reference to the damage rate at that time for each damage record in the damage record data 203, a damage rate calculation unit 208 that calculates the predicted value of the damage rate of each infrastructure at that time using the infrastructure network data 205 and the damage validity data 204, and an update plan optimization calculation unit 209 that calculates the optimal update timing of each infrastructure to minimize the life cycle cost using the calculated predicted value of the damage rate.

[0024] FIG. 3A is a flowchart showing an example of the calculation process of the damage validity in the damage validity calculation unit 207. For example, when information on a new damage record is input one by one or in a predetermined number to the damage record data 203 by an operation of the input device 102 by an infrastructure administrator, or a request to start the calculation process of the damage validity is directly input, the damage validity calculation unit 207 receives a request to start the calculation process of the damage validity (step 301 in FIG. 3A).

[0025] Next, the damage validity calculation unit 207 acquires the damage record data 203 (step 302). The damage record data 203 includes at least the ID of the damaged infrastructure and information on the date of damage for each damage record of the infrastructure.

[0026] FIG. 3B is a diagram showing an example of the damage record data 203. As shown in FIG. 3B, the damage record data 203 stores the pipeline ID for identifying the damaged infrastructure and the actual damage date of the infrastructure identified by the pipeline ID in association with each other. In FIG. 3B, for example, it shows that the infrastructure identified by the pipeline ID "1" has a record of being damaged on the damage date "2023 / 12 / 01".

[0027] Next, the damage validity calculation unit 207 acquires the parameter θ of the infrastructure damage rate function at that time (step 303). The infrastructure damage rate function is defined in advance in the form of f(x,t;θ), and it is assumed that the parameter θ has been estimated using the teacher data including the attribute information of the infrastructure and the number of service years until damage. Here, x is the attribute information of the infrastructure, t is the number of service years, and θ is the parameter for the attribute information of the infrastructure. Here, the specific form of the function f is not limited, and it may be in the form of a neural network, for example. For example, the infrastructure damage rate at the number of service years t can be expressed as f(t) [cases / year·m]. The number of service years is the number of years since the infrastructure was installed.

[0028] Next, the damage validity calculation unit 207 acquires the attribute information associated with the ID of the damaged infrastructure for each damage record from the infrastructure network data 205, calculates the number of service years at the damage date acquired in step 302 and the infrastructure damage rate in the parameter θ acquired in step 303 using the function f, and sets this as the damage validity (step 304). For example, the damage validity calculation unit 207 calculates the damage validity f' in the infrastructure damage rate formula f(t) with the attribute information of the pipeline ID "1" substituted, where "the number of service years t = (damage date) - (installation year)".

[0029] The damage appropriateness calculated here is a predicted value of the damage rate of the infrastructure at the time of damage. When the damage rate is high, the occurrence of damage has a high appropriateness, and when the damage rate is low, the appropriateness of the occurrence of damage is low. It represents the degree of appropriateness of the occurrence of damage. Here, the attribute information included in the infrastructure network data 205 includes, for example, the ID for each infrastructure, information on the installation location such as latitude and longitude, the installation year, and the length. Also, the material information of the infrastructure (for example, in the case of water pipes, ductile cast iron pipes, stainless steel pipes, etc.), the size information of the infrastructure (for example, in the case of water pipes, the pipe diameter, etc.), information on the repair history of the infrastructure, environmental information such as temperature, humidity, soil quality, and traffic volume at the installation location, and information on factors that affect the damage rate of the infrastructure may be included.

[0030] Figure 3C is a diagram showing an example of the infrastructure network data 205. As shown in Figure 3C, the infrastructure network data 205 stores the above pipeline ID, a start point ID for identifying the start point of the infrastructure identified by the pipeline ID, an end point ID for identifying the end point of the infrastructure identified by the pipeline ID, the installation year of the infrastructure, the pipe type indicating the material of the infrastructure, and the pipe diameter and length indicating the size of the infrastructure in association with each other. In Figure 3C, for example, it shows that the infrastructure identified by the pipeline ID "1" is an infrastructure represented by a length of "50 (m)" and a pipe diameter of "100 (mm)" from the point identified by the start point ID "1" to the point identified by the end point ID "2". Also, the pipe type of the infrastructure is "VP", indicating that it was installed in "1990".

[0031] Next, the damage appropriateness calculation unit 207 outputs the damage appropriateness calculated in step 304 as damage appropriateness data 204 (step 305). Here, the damage appropriateness data 204 includes information on the ID of the damaged infrastructure, the damage date, and the damage appropriateness for each damage record.

[0032] FIG. 3D is a diagram showing an example of the damage adequacy data 204. As shown in FIG. 3D, the damage adequacy data 204 stores the pipeline ID, the damage date, and the damage adequacy of the infrastructure identified by the pipeline ID in association with each other. In FIG. 3D, for example, it shows that the infrastructure with the pipeline ID "1" damaged on the damage date "2023 / 12 / 01" has a calculated damage adequacy of "α".

[0033] Here, regarding step 302, instead of acquiring the damage record data 203 for all damage records every time the calculation process of the damage adequacy is performed, for example, it may be sufficient to acquire the damage record data 203 only for damage records for which the calculation of the damage adequacy has not been performed in the past. For example, assume that the damage record data 203 includes flag information indicating whether the calculation of the damage adequacy has been performed for each damage record, and a process may be performed to acquire the damage record data 203 only for damage records without a flag indicating that the calculation of the damage adequacy has been performed in the past.

[0034] FIG. 4A is a flowchart showing an example of the calculation process of the damage rate in the damage rate calculation unit 208. For example, when new damage adequacy data 204 is output by the damage adequacy calculation unit 207, or after the infrastructure is updated or repaired, and the information included in the infrastructure network data 205 is updated by the operation of the input device 102 by the infrastructure administrator, or when a request to start the calculation process of the damage rate is directly input, the damage rate calculation unit 208 receives the request to start the calculation process of the damage rate (step 401 in FIG. 4A).

[0035] Next, the damage rate calculation unit 208 acquires the damage adequacy data 204 (step 402). Here, the damage adequacy data 204 to be acquired may be for all damage records at that time, or may be for the damage records newly output by the calculation process of the damage adequacy in FIG. 3A.

[0036] Next, the damage rate calculation unit 208 acquires the infrastructure network data 205 (step 403). Next, the damage rate calculation unit 208 acquires the damage validity degree for a certain damage record from the damage validity degree data 204 (step 404).

[0037] Next, the damage rate calculation unit 208 determines whether the acquired damage validity degree is greater than a pre-defined threshold value (step 405). If the damage validity degree is greater than the threshold value (step 405; YES), the damage rate calculation unit 208 adds the damage date for the damage record and the attribute information of the infrastructure network data 205 associated with the infrastructure ID to the training data used for estimating the parameter θ of the infrastructure damage rate function f(x, t; θ) (step 406). This means that since the damage validity degree is greater than the threshold value, that is, it does not deviate significantly from the damage rate at that time and the validity of the damage is considered high, it is used as data for correcting the parameters of the damage rate function.

[0038] FIG. 4B is a diagram showing an example of training data used for estimating the parameter θ of the infrastructure damage rate function f(x, t; θ). As shown in FIG. 4B, the training data 401 is represented as data associating the damage record data 203 shown in FIG. 3B and the infrastructure network data 205 shown in FIG. 3C. In FIG. 4B, for example, it shows that the infrastructure identified by the pipeline ID "1" that was damaged on the damage date "2023 / 12 / 01" is the infrastructure having the attribute information shown in FIG. 3C.

[0039] On the other hand, if the damage validity degree is less than the threshold value (step 405; NO), the damage rate calculation unit 208 sets the damage rate of the infrastructure located in the vicinity of the infrastructure to be the one with a correction term added to the infrastructure damage rate function f(x, t; θ) (step 407).

[0040] Using FIG. 5, an example of the process in step 407 will be described. In the infrastructure network 501 represented by the dotted line, assume that the damage adequacy of the damaged infrastructure 502 (thick line in FIG. 5) is smaller than the threshold value. In this case, for example, the damage rate of the infrastructure 504 (solid line in FIG. 5) that intersects within a radius r from the center point 503 of the damaged infrastructure is corrected to the one obtained by adding a correction term to the infrastructure damage rate function f(x, t; θ). Here, the correction term is defined, for example, in the form of a function g(y, d) with the damage adequacy as y and the distance between the damaged infrastructure 502 and the infrastructure 504 to which the correction term is added as d, and the damage rate is corrected as f(x, t; θ)+ g(y, d). This means that for the infrastructure that has broken down prematurely in an outlier-like manner with respect to the damage rate at that time, i.e., the damage adequacy is smaller than the threshold value, it is considered to have broken down due to local deterioration factors not considered in the parameters of the damage rate function.

[0041] Here, the local deterioration factors not considered in the parameters of the damage rate function in the damage of the infrastructure include, for example, the influence of poor construction and the influence of phenomena such as restoration leakage where leakage is likely to occur again around the pipeline repaired after leakage in a water pipeline. Considering that the nearby infrastructure is likely to be by the same construction contractor and the construction quality is likely to be similar, and that leakage is likely to occur again near the pipeline damaged by restoration leakage, here, a process of adding a correction term to the damage rate of the infrastructure 504 located near the damaged infrastructure 502 is performed. In this way, in step 407, a correction term is added to overestimate the damage rate of the pipelines around the pipeline that has broken down prematurely in an outlier-like manner with respect to the damage rate at that time.

[0042] Next, the damage rate calculation unit 208 determines whether all the damage adequacies have been acquired among the damage adequacy data acquired in step 402 (step 408). If not all the damage adequacies have been acquired (step 408; NO), the process returns to step 404.

[0043] On the one hand, when all the damage degrees of adequacy have been obtained (step 408; YES), next, the damage rate calculation unit 208 estimates and updates the parameter θ of the infrastructure damage rate function f(x, t; θ) using the training data added in step 406 (step 409). Regarding the estimation method, it is not limited here according to the form of the function f(x, t; θ).

[0044] Next, for each infrastructure of the infrastructure network data 205, the damage rate calculation unit 208 calculates the damage rate of each new infrastructure within the period for which the plan is made using the damage rate function defined as f(x, t; θ) or f(x, t; θ) + g(y, d), and sets it as the predicted value of the damage rate of each infrastructure (step 410).

[0045] FIG. 6 is a flowchart showing an example of the update plan optimization calculation process in the update plan optimization unit 209. When the damage rate of each infrastructure is updated by the process of the damage rate calculation unit 208, or when a request to start the update plan optimization process is directly input by an operation of the input device 102 by the infrastructure administrator, the update plan optimization unit 209 receives a request to start the optimization calculation process of the update plan (step 601 in FIG. 6).

[0046] Next, the update plan optimization unit 209 acquires the damage rate of each infrastructure calculated by the damage rate calculation unit 208 (step 602). Next, the update plan optimization unit 209 calculates the optimal update time for each infrastructure (step 603).

[0047] Using FIG. 7A, as an example of the process of step 603, a method for calculating the optimal update time that minimizes the life cycle cost will be described. Equation 701 is the total life cycle cost LCC which is the objective function of the problem of minimizing the life cycle cost tot is an equation for calculating. Here, T is the planning period, and I(t * ) represents the set of infrastructures to be updated in year t * . LCC tot is calculated as the sum of the life cycle costs LCC i,t* of the individual infrastructures updated each year. LCC i,t*is calculated as the sum of the initial cost calculated by Equation 702 and the running cost calculated by Equation 703. Here, in Equation 702, C repl,i represents the update cost incurred when updating infrastructure i, and r represents the social discount rate. Also, in Equation 703, F i (t) represents the failure rate of infrastructure i in the t-th year of service, and the failure rate calculated for each infrastructure by the failure rate calculation unit 208 is used. age i is the number of years of service of infrastructure i at the time of planning, C fail,i represents the response cost when infrastructure i fails.

[0048] For each year t that minimizes the total life cycle cost represented by Equation 701 * the set I(t * ) of infrastructure to be updated can be solved by metaheuristics such as genetic algorithms. As a result, the set of infrastructure to be updated each year, that is, the optimal update time t * for each infrastructure is calculated.

[0049] Next, the update plan optimization unit 209 outputs update plan data 206 (step 604). Here, the update plan data 206 includes information on at least the optimal update time, the update cost incurred when updating, and the life cycle cost when updating for each infrastructure of the infrastructure network data 205.

[0050] FIG. 7B is a diagram showing an example of the update plan data 206. As shown in FIG. 7B, the update plan data 206 stores the pipeline ID, the update year indicating the update time, the update cost, and the life cycle cost LCC in association with each other. In FIG. 7B, for example, the optimal update year of the infrastructure identified by the pipeline ID "1" is "2025", and the cost at that time is shown as the update cost "500000" and the LCC "X".

[0051] FIG. 8 is an activity diagram showing an example of a method by which the update plan creation system 100 supports an infrastructure administrator in creating an update plan.

[0052] First, the infrastructure administrator detects an infrastructure damage (step 801 in FIG. 8) and inputs damage performance data 203 regarding the damage performance (step 802). Here, for example, a configuration may be adopted in which damage performance data is created on the damage detection system side when the damage detection system using a sensor or the like detects an infrastructure damage and is input to the update plan creation system 100.

[0053] Next, the update plan creation system 100 receives the input of the damage performance data 203 (step 803). Next, the update plan creation system 100 calculates the damage validity for the input damage performance data 203 by the process of the damage validity calculation unit 207 (step 804).

[0054] Also, when the infrastructure administrator performs repair or update of the infrastructure (step 805), the infrastructure network data 205 is input with information changed by the repair or update (step 806). In that case, next, the update plan creation system 100 receives the input of the infrastructure network data 205 (step 807).

[0055] When the processes of steps 804 or 807 described above are performed, the update plan creation system 100 calculates the damage rate of each infrastructure by the process of the damage rate calculation unit 208 (step 808). Next, the update plan creation system 100 executes an update plan optimization calculation by the process of the update plan optimization unit 209 (step 809).

[0056] Next, the update plan formulation system 100 outputs a damage validity display screen 901 and an update plan display screen 1001 by using the damage validity data 204 output by the damage validity calculation process and the update plan optimization calculation process, and the update plan data 206 (step 810). As a result, the infrastructure administrator can refer to the displayed damage validity display screen 901 and update plan display screen 1001 and utilize them as information for maintenance implementation such as formulating an update plan, repairing the infrastructure, and performing updates (step 811).

[0057] FIG. 9 is a diagram showing an example of the damage validity display screen 901. For example, on the damage validity display screen 901, the damage validity information of each infrastructure is displayed in the form of a network by using the damage validity calculated by the damage validity calculation unit 207 and information regarding the positions included in the infrastructure network data 205. On the infrastructure network, an infrastructure 902 that has not been damaged in the past is displayed by a dotted line. Among the infrastructures that have a past damage record, an infrastructure 903 whose damage validity value calculated by the damage validity calculation unit 207 is greater than the threshold value is displayed by a solid line, and an infrastructure 904 whose damage validity value is smaller than the threshold value is displayed by a hatched line. By selecting an infrastructure with a past damage record using an input device 102 such as a mouse by the infrastructure administrator, information 905 regarding the damage validity of the infrastructure is displayed. The infrastructure administrator can refer to the damage date, damage validity, and information on whether the damage is valid included in the information 905 regarding the damage validity and utilize them for making judgments such as formulating an update plan, repairing the infrastructure, and performing updates.

[0058] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of the update plan display screen 1001. For example, on the update plan display screen 1001, the optimal update timing information of each infrastructure is displayed in the form of a network by using the update plan data 206 calculated by the update plan optimization unit 209 and information regarding the positions included in the infrastructure network data 205. Also, for example, the date on which the calculated update plan data 206 to be displayed is calculated is displayed as the latest formulation date 1002. Infrastructure network Above, the optimal update times of each infrastructure are displayed in a segmented format such as 1003 - 1007. When the infrastructure administrator selects the infrastructure on the network using an input device 102 such as a mouse, information 1008 about the infrastructure is displayed. The displayed information includes the infrastructure ID, optimal update time, update cost, life cycle cost, whether correction has been made for damage with low neighborhood validity, if so, the infrastructure ID of the infrastructure located in the neighborhood where damage with low validity occurred, damage date, damage validity, and other information. The infrastructure administrator can refer to this information and utilize it for formulating update plans, making decisions regarding infrastructure repair, update, etc.

[0059] As described above, according to the update plan formulation system 100 and the update plan formulation device 101 of the present embodiment, whenever the conditions of the infrastructure network change due to the occurrence of damage or update of the infrastructure, an optimal infrastructure update plan can be formulated at any time. For example, even when the conditions constituting the infrastructure network change due to the damage performance data 203 input by step 802 shown in FIG. 8 or the infrastructure network data 205 input by step 806, an infrastructure update plan corresponding to the change can be formulated at any time. Thereby, the infrastructure administrator can formulate an update plan for the infrastructure and assist in making decisions regarding repair and update.

[0060] For example, as described with reference to FIGS. 3-8, etc., based on damage record data (e.g., damage record data 203) including information about the damage records of the infrastructure, and the attribute information of the infrastructure (e.g., each attribute of the infrastructure network data 205) at the time when the infrastructure was damaged, a damage rate of the infrastructure (e.g., infrastructure damage rate f(t) [cases / year·m] in the service years t), a damage validity calculation unit (e.g., damage validity calculation unit 207) calculates a damage validity (e.g., damage validity data 204 shown in FIG. 3D) representing the validity of the occurrence of damage to the infrastructure. A damage rate calculation unit (e.g., damage rate calculation unit 208) calculates a new damage rate for each infrastructure by updating the damage rate of the infrastructure according to the damage validity. An update plan optimization calculation unit (e.g., update plan optimization calculation unit 209) calculates the update time of each infrastructure based on the new damage rate of each infrastructure. When the detection of damage to the infrastructure or / and the change of the attribute information of the infrastructure (e.g., the input of the damage record data 203 input by step 802 shown in FIG. 8, or the input of the infrastructure network data 205 input by step 806) is performed, the new damage rate of each infrastructure is calculated, and based on the calculated new damage rate of each infrastructure, an update plan for each infrastructure is formulated at any time. Therefore, every time the conditions of the infrastructure network change due to the occurrence or update of damage to the infrastructure, an optimal infrastructure update plan can be formulated at any time.

[0061] Also, as described with reference to S405-406 in FIG. 4, etc., when the damage validity is greater than a threshold value, the damage rate calculation unit uses the damage date of the damage record and the attribute information of the infrastructure as teacher data (e.g., teacher data 401 shown in FIG. 4B), and updates the parameters of the infrastructure damage rate function used to calculate the damage rate of the infrastructure, thereby calculating the damage rate for each infrastructure. As a result, for infrastructures with a certain degree of validity regarding damage, past damage records can be learned, and a more accurate damage rate can be calculated.

[0062] Also, as described with reference to S405, 407, etc. in FIG. 4, when the damage appropriateness is smaller than the threshold value, the damage rate calculation unit calculates the damage rate for each of the above-mentioned infrastructures by adding a correction term to the damage rate of the infrastructure (see FIG. 5) located near the damaged infrastructure. Thereby, for an infrastructure with a certain degree of low validity regarding damage, it is regarded as being damaged due to local deterioration factors not considered in the parameters of the damage rate function, and the damage rate of the pipelines around the pipeline that has been damaged extremely early compared to the damage rate at that time can be estimated to be high.

[0063] Also, as described with reference to S603 in FIG. 6, FIG. 7, etc., the renewal plan optimization unit calculates the renewal timing of each of the above-mentioned infrastructures based on the damage rate for each of the above-mentioned infrastructures and a predetermined arithmetic expression regarding the life cycle cost (see FIG. 7), and thereby formulates a renewal plan corresponding to the renewal when the damage rate of each of the above-mentioned infrastructures is updated. Thereby, it is possible to formulate a renewal plan that reflects the actual damage situation at any time.

[0064] In recent years, a large number of social infrastructures (for example, water pipes) built during the period of high economic growth are aging. Conventionally, they have been renewed based on renewal criteria based on the legal service life and rules of thumb. However, the renewal cost is still enormous, and when a leak occurs, an accident response cost is incurred. Therefore, it is desirable to extend the service life of the pipelines as long as possible within a range where leaks do not occur frequently. In the embodiment, it is possible to formulate a renewal plan that is efficient in terms of cost considering the above.

[0065] In addition, infrastructure managers (such as waterworks bureaus) perform maintenance, for example, by formulating an update plan (a plan for when and which pipelines to update) within a certain planning period at the beginning of a period and updating the infrastructure according to the plan. However, in reality, after formulating the update plan, the conditions of the entire network may change due to infrastructure damage or updates, and the update plan that was optimal at the beginning of the period may no longer be optimal. In such a case, when infrastructure damage occurs that deviates from the predicted infrastructure deterioration assumed at the beginning of the period, it is necessary to modify the update plan considering deterioration factors that are difficult to parameterize, such as poor construction of infrastructure in the vicinity.

[0066] As described above, according to this embodiment, even when the conditions of the entire network change due to infrastructure damage or updates, the pipeline accident rate model and the update plan are updated, and an optimal update plan is formulated at any time. Specifically, by updating the attribute information of pipeline data, the parameters of the pipeline accident rate model (infrastructure damage rate function), and the correction term representing the influence of deterioration factors (such as construction quality) that are not explicitly incorporated into the parameters of the pipeline accident rate model, the pipeline accident rate model and the update plan can be updated, and an optimal update plan can be formulated at any time.

[0067] Furthermore, currently, in infrastructure such as water pipes, parts are replaced after a leakage accident occurs. According to this embodiment, it is possible to prevent leakage accidents, and as a result, it is possible to provide an infrastructure that is environmentally friendly and does not cause waste of water resources. Moreover, instead of updating at a predetermined time, the update plan is formulated each time according to the accident rate of the infrastructure, so that the infrastructure such as water pipes can be made to last longer, and it is possible to carry out town construction that is environmentally friendly and effectively utilizes infrastructure resources.

Explanation of Signs

[0068] 100 Update Plan Formulation System, 101 Update Plan Formulation Device, 201 Storage Unit, 202 Calculation Unit, 203 Damage Record Data, 204 Damage Validity Data, 205 Infrastructure Network Data, 206 Update Plan Data, 207 Damage Validity Calculation Unit, 208 Damage Rate Calculation Unit, 209 Update Plan Optimization Calculation Unit

Claims

1. A damage plausibility calculation unit that calculates a damage plausibility representing the plausibility of the occurrence of damage to the infrastructure based on damage record data including information on the damage record of the infrastructure and the damage rate of the infrastructure calculated based on the attribute information of the infrastructure at the time when the infrastructure was damaged; A damage rate calculation unit that calculates the damage rate of each new infrastructure by updating the damage rate of the infrastructure according to the damage plausibility; An update plan optimization calculation unit that calculates the update timing of each infrastructure based on the new damage rate of each infrastructure, and has: Each time the detection of damage to the infrastructure and / or the change of the attribute information of the infrastructure is performed, the new damage rate of each infrastructure is calculated, and based on the calculated new damage rate of each infrastructure, the update plan of each infrastructure is formulated at any time. An update plan formulation device characterized by the above.

2. When the damage plausibility is greater than a threshold value, the damage rate calculation unit updates the parameters of the infrastructure damage rate function used to calculate the damage rate of the infrastructure, using the damage date of the damage record and the attribute information of the infrastructure as teacher data, to calculate the damage rate for each infrastructure. The update plan formulation device according to Claim 1, characterized by the above.

3. When the damage plausibility is less than a threshold value, the damage rate calculation unit calculates the damage rate for each infrastructure by adding a correction term to the damage rate of the infrastructure located near the damaged infrastructure. The update plan formulation device according to Claim 1, characterized by the above.

4. The update plan optimization unit calculates the update timing of each infrastructure based on the damage rate of each infrastructure and a predetermined formula related to the life cycle cost, so as to formulate an update plan corresponding to the update when the damage rate of each infrastructure is updated. The update plan formulation device according to Claim 1, characterized by the above.

5. An update plan formulation system having an input device, an output device, and a computer connected to the input device and the output device, wherein: The input device: Receives the input of damage record data including information on the damage record of the infrastructure; The computer: Calculates a damage plausibility representing the plausibility of the occurrence of damage to the infrastructure based on the damage record data and the damage rate of the infrastructure calculated based on the attribute information of the infrastructure at the time when the infrastructure was damaged; By updating the damage rate of the infrastructure according to the damage appropriateness, calculate the damage rate of each new infrastructure, Based on the damage rate of each new infrastructure, calculate the renewal time of each infrastructure, Whenever the detection of damage to the infrastructure or / and the change of the attribute information of the infrastructure are performed, calculate the damage rate of each new infrastructure, and based on the calculated damage rate of each new infrastructure, formulate the renewal plan of each infrastructure at any time, The output device is, Output the renewal plan of each infrastructure formulated at any time, A renewal plan formulation system characterized by the above.

6. A renewal plan formulation method for formulating a renewal plan of an infrastructure, which is performed by a computer, Based on the damage performance data including information on the damage performance of the infrastructure and the damage rate of the infrastructure calculated based on the attribute information of the infrastructure at the time when the infrastructure is damaged, calculate the damage appropriateness representing the appropriateness of the occurrence of damage to the infrastructure, By updating the damage rate of the infrastructure according to the damage appropriateness, calculate the damage rate of each new infrastructure, Based on the damage rate of each new infrastructure, calculate the renewal time of each infrastructure, Whenever the detection of damage to the infrastructure or / and the change of the attribute information of the infrastructure are performed, calculate the damage rate of each new infrastructure, and based on the calculated damage rate of each new infrastructure, formulate the renewal plan of each infrastructure at any time, A renewal plan formulation method characterized by the above.

7. In the calculation of the damage rate, when the damage appropriateness is greater than the threshold value, use the damage date of the damage performance and the attribute information of the infrastructure as teacher data, and update the parameters of the infrastructure damage rate function used in the calculation of the damage rate of the infrastructure, thereby calculating the damage rate for each infrastructure, The renewal plan formulation method according to claim 6, characterized by the above.

8. In the calculation of the damage rate, when the damage appropriateness is less than the threshold value, calculate the damage rate for each infrastructure by adding a correction term to the damage rate of the infrastructure located near the damaged infrastructure, The renewal plan formulation method according to claim 6, characterized by the above.

9. In calculating the update timing of each of the above-mentioned infrastructures, the update timing of each of the infrastructures is calculated based on the damage rate for each of the infrastructures and a predetermined arithmetic expression related to the life cycle cost, so that when the damage rate of each of the infrastructures is updated, an update plan corresponding to the update is formulated. The method for formulating an update plan according to claim 6, characterized by the above.

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