Business continuation support system, business continuation support method, and program

Abstract

To provide a business continuation support system capable of enhancing the execution property of a business continuation plan.SOLUTION: A business continuation support system according to an embodiment includes a detection device for detecting states of lifelines to be supplied to a business continuation support object area and a state of a heat resource generated in the business continuation support object area, and a simulator device for simulating supply states of lifelines after a disaster, a supply state of the heat resource, and an operation state of heat source equipment for consuming the lifelines and generating the heat resource on the basis of the detection results of the detection device.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] An embodiment of the present invention relates to a business continuity support system, a business continuity support method, and a program. [Background technology]

[0002] When disasters such as earthquakes occur, it is important to continue business activities. In recent years, the importance of business continuity plans (BCPs) has been recognized as important for business continuity during disasters. However, when a disaster occurs and companies are trying to act in accordance with a BCP that was created in advance, they cannot act in accordance with the plan if resources such as electricity, gas, and water are unavailable in addition to the integrity of the building.

[0003] For example, when taking action in accordance with a business continuity plan at a factory, in addition to the lifelines of electricity, gas, and water, it may be impossible to execute the plan if thermal resources such as steam, hot water, and cold water generated within the factory or district are not available. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0004] [Patent Document 1] Patent No. 6309254 [Patent Document 2] Patent No. 6835522 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0005] The problem to be solved by the present invention is to provide a business continuity support system, a business continuity support method, and a program that can improve the feasibility of business continuity plans. [Means for solving the problem]

[0006] A business continuity support system according to one embodiment includes a detection device that detects the status of lifelines supplied to a business continuity support target area and the status of thermal resources generated in the business continuity support target area, and a simulator device that simulates the supply status of lifelines after a disaster, the supply status of thermal resources, and the operating status of thermal source equipment that consumes lifelines and generates thermal resources based on the detection results of the detection device. [Effects of the Invention]

[0007] According to this embodiment, it is possible to improve the feasibility of the business continuity plan. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0008] [Figure 1] 1 is a block diagram showing a schematic configuration of a business continuity support system according to a first embodiment. [Figure 2] 4 is a flowchart showing an example of an operation procedure of the business continuity support system according to the first embodiment. [Figure 3] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of a simulation result of the receiving flow of the water tank under normal conditions. [Figure 4] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of a simulation result of the water level in a water tank during a disaster. [Figure 5] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of a simulation result of the amount of steam generated by a boiler during normal operation. [Figure 6] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of a simulation result of the amount of hot water produced by the cogeneration system under normal conditions. [Figure 7] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of a simulation result of the temperature of the hot water tank during normal operation. [Figure 8] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of the results of a simulation of the power supply state in the event of a disaster using a simulator device. [Figure 9] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of the results of a simulation of the hot water supply state in the event of a disaster using a simulator device. [Figure 10]FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of the results of a simulation performed using a simulator device to simulate changes in the water level of a hot water tank during a disaster. [Figure 11] 10 is an example of an image displayed on a display device. [Figure 12] FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of the results of a simulation performed using a simulator device to determine the change in steam supply rate when a steam supply line is damaged during a disaster. [Figure 13] FIG. 10 is a block diagram showing the configuration of a business continuity support system according to a second embodiment. [Figure 14] 10 is a flowchart showing the procedure of a method for creating a restart file. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0009] DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the accompanying drawings. The present invention is not limited to the following embodiments.

[0010] (First embodiment) FIG. 1 is a block diagram illustrating the configuration of a business continuity support system according to a first embodiment. The business continuity support system 1 illustrated in FIG. 1 guides users to take appropriate actions to continue business operations in a factory or a city block. Specifically, the business continuity support system 1 manages and controls the supply status of lifelines 20, such as electricity 20A, gas 20B, and water 20C, supplied to the factory or city block from outside. The business continuity support system 1 also manages and controls the operation status of heat source equipment 3, such as a combined heat and power supply system 3A, an emergency generator 3B, a boiler 3C, and a chiller 3D, installed in the factory or city block. The business continuity support system 1 also manages and controls the supply status of thermal resources 40, such as steam 40A, hot water 40B, and chilled water 40C, generated by the heat source equipment 3. The business continuity support system 1 also manages and controls the remaining amounts of storage resources 5, such as a water receiving tank 5A, a hot water tank 5B, a chilled water tank 5C, an emergency fuel tank 5D, and a hydrogen tank 5E.

[0011] In the following description, electricity 20A, gas 20B, and water 20C may be referred to as lifelines 20 without distinction. Furthermore, the cogeneration system 3A, emergency generator 3B, boiler 3C, and chiller 3D may be referred to as heat source equipment 3 without distinction. Furthermore, steam 40A, hot water 40B, and chilled water 40C may be referred to as thermal resources 40 without distinction. Furthermore, the water receiving tank 5A, hot water tank 5B, chilled water tank 5C, emergency fuel tank 5D, and hydrogen tank 5E may be referred to as storage resources 5 without distinction.

[0012] In this embodiment, it is not necessary for all of the lifelines 20, namely, electricity 20A, gas 20B, and water 20C, to be supplied to the factory or block, but it is sufficient that at least one of them is supplied. Also, it is not necessary for all of the elements included in the heat source equipment 3, the heat resource 40, and the storage resource 5 to be supplied or installed in the factory or block, but it is sufficient that at least one of them is supplied or installed.

[0013] 1 includes a switching device 10, a management device 11, a detection device 12, a model creation device 13, a simulator device 14, a display device 15, and a storage device 16. Each device will be described below.

[0014] The switchgear 10 is a device that opens or closes the supply paths that supply the lifelines 20 and the thermal resources 40 to the building 7 under the control of the management device 11. For example, even if the supply status of the lifelines 20 or the thermal resources 40 is sound, if the building 7 is damaged and demand is not expected, the switchgear 10 cuts off the supply paths. Also, if a gas pipe or a water pipe that is a supply path for gas 20B or water 20C installed inside or outside the building 7 is damaged, the switchgear 10 opens or closes the supply paths upstream.

[0015] The management device 11 determines the supply fulfillment rate by comparing various values ​​output by the analysis model of the simulator device 14 with demand data under normal circumstances. In addition to determining the fulfillment rate, the management device 11 displays on the display device 15 the course of action that the factory or block should take thereafter and the need for restoration of facilities, based on the determined fulfillment rate. Furthermore, the management device 11 controls the operation of the heat source equipment 3 based on the supply status of the lifeline 20, the supply status of the thermal resources 40, and the demand status of the thermal resources 40.

[0016] The detection device 12 detects the supply status of the lifeline 20, the operation status of the heat source equipment 3, the supply status of the thermal resource 40, the remaining capacity of the storage resource 5, the remaining capacity of the drainage tank 6, and the damage status of the building 7. A drainage tank 6 and a building 7 are also installed in the factory or block where the business continuity support system 1 is installed. The drainage tank 6 temporarily stores used drainage water. The detection device 12 detects the liquid level in the drainage tank 6 to prevent the drainage water from overflowing. The management device 11 monitors the liquid level in the drainage tank 6 based on the detection results of the detection device 12. The building 7 may be a single building or multiple buildings.

[0017] With respect to the supply status of the lifeline 20, the detection device 12 detects the value of the electricity 20A, the pressure and flow rate of the gas 20B, and the flow rate of the water 20C. With respect to the supply status of the thermal resource 40, the detection device 12 detects the flow rate of the steam 40A, the flow rate and temperature of the hot water 40B, and the flow rate and temperature of the cold water 40C. With respect to the remaining capacity of the storage resource 5, the detection device 12 detects the liquid level of each of the water receiving tank 5A, the hot water tank 5B, the cold water tank 5C, the emergency fuel tank 5D, and the hydrogen tank 5E, and the temperatures of the hot water tank 5B and the cold water tank 5C. With respect to the operating status of the heat source equipment 3, the detection device 12 detects the amount of power generated and the amount of water supplied by the combined heat and power supply system 3A, the amount of power generated by the emergency generator 3B, the output level and amount of water supplied by the boiler 3C, and the flow rate and temperature of the water supplied by the chiller 3D.

[0018] Regarding the damage status of the building 7, the detection device 12 detects damage that the building 7 has suffered due to the disaster. Furthermore, the detection device 12 can detect the damage status of each building, but can also detect the damage status of each room within any building. The damage status of the building 7 also includes the status of the electric wires and pipes that are the supply routes of the lifelines 20 and thermal resources 40, and the status of storage tanks such as the water tank 5A of the storage resources 5. When the building 7 is damaged, the supply status of the lifelines 20 and thermal resources 40 differs from when the building 7 is healthy. Therefore, the detection device 12 detects the results of detecting the supply status of the lifelines 20 and thermal resources 40 as damage that the building 7 has suffered.

[0019] The model creation device 13 creates an analytical model according to the input format of the simulator device 14 in order to use the detection results of the detection device 12 as calculation conditions for the simulator device 14. According to this analytical model, the supply status of the lifeline 20, the supply status of the thermal resource 40, the operating status of the heat source equipment 3, the supply status of the thermal resource 40, the remaining capacity of the storage resource 5, the remaining capacity of the drainage tank 6, the consumption status of the lifeline 20, and the consumption status of the thermal resource 40 detected by the detection device 12 can be reproduced on a computer.

[0020] Based on the analytical model created by the model creation device 13, the simulator device 14 simulates the supply status of the lifeline 20, the supply status of the thermal resource 40, the remaining capacity of the storage resource 5, and the future operating status of the heat source equipment 3. Through a simulation using this analytical model, the frequency of the electricity 20A, the flow rates of the gas 20B, the water 20C, the steam 40A, the hot water 40B, and the cold water 40C, and the temperature of the steam 40A, the hot water 40B, and the cold water 40C, and time-series changes are output.

[0021] The more detection points the detection device 12 has for the lifeline 20 or the thermal resource 40, the higher the detection accuracy. However, there may be cases where it is not possible to install detection points for the lifeline 20 or the thermal resource 40 due to physical or economic limitations. Even in such cases, by providing the simulator device 14, it is possible to interpolate data even for elements or nodes where data could not be detected, and provide the functions necessary for system operation.

[0022] The display device 15 is a device that displays various images under the control of the management device 11. The display device 15 may be configured as a display device such as a liquid crystal display, or may be configured as a projection device such as a projector that displays a projected image. Furthermore, the display device 15 may be configured as a printer that prints information on a paper medium.

[0023] The storage device 16 stores various data and is configured with, for example, a semiconductor memory, a HDD, etc.

[0024] The operation of the business continuity support system 1 according to this embodiment will be described below. Here, the processing flow from data detection by the detection device 12 to control of the availability of the heat source equipment 3 based on the business continuity mode determination result will be described with reference to Fig. 2. This processing flow can be realized, for example, by each device of the business continuity support system 1 operating based on a computer program stored in the storage device 16.

[0025] 2 is a flowchart showing an example of the operation procedure of the business continuity support system 1 according to the first embodiment. In this flowchart, first, the detection device 12 detects the supply status of the lifeline 20, the operation status of the heat source equipment 3, the supply status of the thermal resource 40, and the remaining capacity of the storage resource 5 (step S11).

[0026] Next, the model creation device 13 creates an analytical model using the detection results of the detection device 12 (step S12). In step S2, the values ​​detected by the detection device 12 are input into a predetermined input format as calculation conditions for the simulator device 14, thereby creating an analytical model. In this embodiment, the detection device 12 detects situations during normal times, and the analytical model is common to both normal times and disasters. When a disaster is detected, only the input conditions change, making it possible to operate during a disaster as well.

[0027] Next, the simulator device 14 uses the above-mentioned analytical model to simulate the post-disaster supply status of the lifeline 20, the supply status of the thermal resource 40, the remaining capacity of the storage resource 5, and the operating status of the heat source equipment 3 (step S13). In step S13, as the post-disaster supply status of the lifeline 20 and the supply status of the thermal resource 40, for example, the frequency of the electric power 20A, the flow rates of the gas 20B, the water 20C, the steam 40A, the hot water 40B, and the chilled water 40C, and the temperatures of the steam 40A, the hot water 40B, and the chilled water 40C are output. Furthermore, as the remaining capacity of the storage resource 5 after the disaster, for example, the remaining capacities of the emergency fuel tank 5D and the hydrogen tank 5E are output. Furthermore, as the post-disaster operating status of the heat source equipment 3, for example, the generated power, hot water production amount, and steam production amount of the combined heat and power supply system 3A, the generated power of the emergency generator 3B, the steam production amount of the boiler 3C, and the chilled water production amount of the chiller 3D are output.

[0028] Next, the management device 11 compares the simulation output results of the simulator device 14 with the normal demand data stored in the memory device 16, and determines whether the supply of electricity, water, steam, and hot water at that moment is sufficient for the normal demand (step S14).

[0029] First, the process of determining whether power is sufficient will be described. The grid frequency within the factory or city block is output by simulation using the simulator device 14 based on the supplied power of power 20A, the power generated by the cogeneration system 3A, and, if the emergency generator 3B is activated, the power generated by the emergency generator 3B. If the grid frequency is a specified value (for example, 50 Hz), the management device 11 determines that power is sufficient.

[0030] Next, the water sufficiency determination process will be described with reference to Figures 3 and 4. Figure 3 is a diagram showing an example of a simulation result of the incoming flow of water tank 5A under normal conditions. Under normal conditions, the water level of water 20C in water tank 5A is kept constant by a constant water level valve in water tank 5A. Therefore, as shown in Figure 3, the simulation by simulator device 14 can output the incoming flow rate of water tank 5A under normal conditions from moment to moment.

[0031] Figure 4 shows an example of the simulation results for the water level in the water receiving tank 5A during a disaster. When a factory or city block is affected by a disaster and water supply is cut off, the receiving flow rate in the water receiving tank 5A drops to zero, and only 20C of water is consumed. Therefore, as shown in Figure 4, the simulation by the simulator device 14 can output the state in which the water level in the water receiving tank 5A drops and the remaining capacity decreases.

[0032] Next, the steam sufficiency determination process will be described with reference to Fig. 5. Fig. 5 is a diagram showing an example of the results of a simulation of the amount of steam generated by boiler 3C under normal circumstances. Under normal circumstances, steam 40A is generated at a constant flow rate by boiler 3C. Therefore, as shown in Fig. 5, the amount of steam generated by boiler 3C under normal circumstances can be output by simulation using simulator device 14. On the other hand, in the event of a disaster, the amount of steam generated by boiler 3C decreases, so management device 11 compares the amount of steam 40A demanded under normal circumstances with the amount of steam generated and calculates to what extent the amount of steam demand is met.

[0033] Next, the hot water sufficiency determination process will be described with reference to Figures 6 and 7. Figure 6 is a diagram showing an example of a simulation result of the amount of hot water produced in the cogeneration system 3A under normal conditions. Figure 7 is a diagram showing an example of a simulation result of the temperature of the hot water tank 5B under normal conditions.

[0034] Under normal circumstances, hot water 40B is generated at a constant flow rate by the combined heat and power supply system 3A. Therefore, as shown in FIG. 6, the amount of hot water generated by the combined heat and power supply system 3A under normal circumstances can be output by simulation using the simulator device 14. Furthermore, under normal circumstances, the temperature of the hot water tank 5B is maintained to satisfy the required temperature of the hot water 40B. Therefore, as shown in FIG. 7, the temperature of the hot water tank 5B under normal circumstances can be output by simulation using the simulator device 14.

[0035] On the other hand, in the event of a disaster, the amount of hot water produced in the combined heat and power supply system 3A decreases and the temperature of the hot water tank 5B drops, so the management device 11 calculates and determines to what extent the amount of hot water produced is sufficient for the demand under normal circumstances, and determines whether the temperature of the hot water tank 5B satisfies the temperature of the hot water 40B required under normal circumstances.

[0036] After the satisfaction determination process is performed as described above, the management device 11 then determines the action guidelines to be taken by the factory or block as disaster response modes M1 to M3 based on the result of the satisfaction determination process (step S15). Each disaster response mode will be described below.

[0037] The disaster response mode M1 is a mode in which the damage to the factory or city block is minor and the factory production activities can be maintained at a normal pace or can be continued under certain restrictions. For example, if the supply sufficiency rate calculated in the sufficiency determination process described above is 50% or more and the time required to restore the damaged facilities and equipment is within 24 hours, the management device 11 determines that the disaster response mode M1 is in effect.

[0038] Furthermore, in step S15, after a disaster occurs, the management device 11 identifies the scale of the disaster according to the magnitude of the abnormality detected by the detection device 12, or identifies the scale of the disaster certified by visual confirmation at the site. Next, the management device 11 identifies the recovery time using the recovery information database stored in the storage device 16. The recovery information database indicates equipment damage information for each disaster scale. The management device 11 searches the recovery information database for equipment damage information corresponding to the identified disaster scale. Next, the management device 11 calculates the recovery time using a predetermined calculation formula for each piece of retrieved equipment damage information. If the calculated recovery time is within 24 hours, the management device 11 determines the disaster response mode M1 as described above.

[0039] Next, the disaster response mode M2 ​​will be described. The disaster response mode M2 ​​is a mode in which the factory or city block is moderately damaged, the factory production activities cannot be maintained, and the minimum resources necessary to maintain the production environment, such as maintaining a clean room environment, are allocated. The minimum demand data necessary to maintain the production environment is stored in advance in the storage device 16. The stored demand data is calculated as the minimum required demand amount based on the results of a prior importance analysis of demand data under normal circumstances.

[0040] For example, in a semiconductor factory, the greatest damage, excluding physical damage to production equipment, is expected to be damage caused by not being able to maintain clean rooms and damage to pure water production equipment that makes it impossible to quickly resume production activities.In a semiconductor factory, importance analysis involves extracting events that could lead to damage at each level.

[0041] In step S15, for example, if the supply amount fulfillment rate calculated in the above-described fulfillment determination process is equal to or greater than 30% and less than 50%, and the time required to restore the damaged facilities and equipment is within 72 hours, the management device 11 determines to enter disaster response mode M2. The supply amount fulfillment rate at which disaster response mode M2 ​​is entered may be determined based on the ratio of the minimum required demand amount calculated in the steam importance analysis to the supply amount.

[0042] Next, the disaster response mode M3 will be described. The disaster response mode M3 is a mode in which, when a factory or city block is severely damaged and it is not possible to maintain factory production activities or the production environment, the system allocates currently available resources to quickly restore the production environment by, if necessary, controlling the operation rate of the heat source equipment 3 and issuing instructions to open or close the supply routes of the lifelines 20 and the heat resources 40, in order to prevent the occurrence of a secondary disaster. For example, if the damage to the building 7 is severe, or if the supply fulfillment rate is less than 30%, or if the time required to restore the damaged facilities and equipment is 72 hours or more, the management device 11 determines that the disaster response mode M3 is in effect. The damage to the building 7 is determined as mild or severe by a human check to determine whether it is dangerous for people to enter, and the determination result is input to the management device 11. Here, an example of the classification of disaster response modes by the management device 11 will be described.

[0043] Fig. 8 is a diagram showing an example of the results of simulating the supply state of electric power 20A during a disaster using simulator device 14. When cogeneration system 3A stops at timing t1 due to a disaster, the supply of electric power drops to zero, as shown in Fig. 8. Thereafter, emergency generator 3B starts operating at timing t2, which resumes the supply of electric power 20A and restores a healthy state.

[0044] 9 is a diagram showing an example of the results of simulating the supply state of hot water 40B in the event of a disaster using the simulator device 14. When the cogeneration system 3A stops at timing t1, the amount of hot water 40B produced becomes zero, as shown in FIG.

[0045] Fig. 10 is a diagram showing an example of the results of a simulation performed by simulator device 14 on the change in the water level in hot water tank 5B during a disaster. Even if cogeneration system 3A stops at timing t1, if the drop in the water level in hot water tank 5B is small as shown in Fig. 10, a sufficient amount (e.g., 89%) of hot water 40B remains in hot water tank 5B. Furthermore, if the recovery time for the stopped cogeneration system 3A is, for example, three hours, management device 11 classifies the disaster response mode as disaster response mode M1.

[0046] Fig. 11 is an example of an image displayed on the display device 15. When the management device 11 classifies the disaster response mode, it causes the display device 15 to display, for example, an image 150 as shown in Fig. 11 (step S16). Information indicating that the mode has been classified as disaster response mode M1 is displayed on the image 150. Information indicating whether the external power source, gas, water, combined heat and power supply system 3A, steam, hot water, and cold water are healthy is also displayed.

[0047] The following describes a case where boiler 3C stops due to a disaster. In this case, steam 40A cannot be generated, and the amount of steam generated becomes zero. As a result, the fulfillment rate of steam 40A relative to the demand becomes 0%, so management device 11 classifies the disaster response mode as disaster response mode M3.

[0048] As another case, a case where the boiler 3C is sound but the supply path of the steam 40A is broken will be described with reference to FIG.

[0049] 12 is a diagram showing an example of the results of a simulation performed by the simulator device 14 to determine the change in the amount of steam supply when the supply path for steam 40A is damaged during a disaster. In this case, the steam sufficiency rate is 0%, so the management device 11 classifies the situation as disaster response mode M3. Additionally, in this case, burns and other injuries are expected at the break in the supply path for steam 40A. Therefore, the management device 11 sends an instruction to the opening and closing device 10 to close the supply path upstream of the break (step S17), and also controls the operation of the heat source equipment 3, such as the boiler 3C, so as to reduce the availability rate (step S18).

[0050] According to the present embodiment described above, it is possible to grasp the status of the lifelines 20 of electricity 20A, gas 20B, and water 20C supplied to a business continuity support target area such as a factory or a city block, as well as the status of the thermal resources 40 of steam 40A, hot water 40B, and cold water 40C generated in the business continuity support target area. This makes it possible to improve the feasibility of business continuity planning.

[0051] Furthermore, the detection device 12 of this embodiment does not necessarily have sensors for obtaining information necessary to grasp all the states of the lifelines 20 and the thermal resources 40. Therefore, the business continuity support system 1 of this embodiment is equipped with a simulator device 14 that visualizes the supply and demand status of resources in the factory, reproduces the operating behavior of the heat source equipment 3 that consumes elements of the lifelines 20 to generate the thermal resources 40, and further visualizes the supply and demand status of the thermal resources 40. This makes it possible to minimize the configuration of the detection device 12.

[0052] Furthermore, when a disaster occurs, facility managers are overwhelmed with various responses and may be unable to make appropriate and prompt decisions. In contrast, in the business continuity support system 1 according to this embodiment, the management device 11 determines the disaster response mode based on the damage status of the building 7 and the sufficiency rates of the lifelines 20 and thermal resources 40, and the display device 15 displays the determination result. If the damage status is mild, the management device 11 classifies the disaster response mode M1, and the display device 15 displays an image indicating that production activities can be maintained. If the damage status is moderate, the management device 11 classifies the disaster response mode M2, and the display device 15 displays an image indicating that production activities should be suspended and the minimum resources necessary to maintain the production facility (e.g., maintaining a clean room environment) should be allocated. If the damage status is severe, the management device 11 classifies the disaster response mode M3, and the display device 15 displays an image indicating that production activities and production facilities should be suspended and resources should be secured to achieve early facility recovery. This enables facility managers to make appropriate decisions according to the disaster status.

[0053] (Second embodiment) Figure 13 is a block diagram showing the configuration of a business continuity support system according to the second embodiment. In Figure 13, components that are the same as those in the business continuity support system 1 according to the first embodiment described above are given the same reference numerals, and duplicate explanations will be omitted. The business continuity support system 2 shown in Figure 13 further includes a failure risk calculation device 17 and a scenario creation device 18 in addition to the components of the business continuity support system 1 according to the first embodiment.

[0054] The business continuity support system 2 creates a restart file using a failure risk calculation device 17 and a scenario creation device 18. The restart file indicates data related to disaster scenarios that are set in advance as disaster cases whose occurrence probability is greater than a predetermined reference value. Here, a method for creating the restart file will be described with reference to FIG. 14.

[0055] 14 is a flowchart showing the procedure for creating a restart file. At the start, the failure risk calculation device 17 first acquires location information indicating the longitude and latitude of a factory or city block for which a restart file is to be created (step S21). The location information may be stored in advance in the storage device 16, or may be input to the failure risk calculation device 17 from an external device.

[0056] Next, the failure risk calculation device 17 calculates the value of the equipment failure risk based on the type and scale of the disaster that are set in advance according to the acquired location information (step S22). The type of disaster includes, for example, the probability of occurrence of an earthquake, tsunami, flood, etc. The scale of the disaster includes the seismic intensity of the earthquake, the height of the tsunami, the amount of flood, etc. In this embodiment, the value of the equipment failure risk is set in advance according to these scales.

[0057] Next, the scenario creation device 18 creates a disaster scenario (step S23). In step S23, the scenario creation device 18 does not create disaster scenarios for all disasters for which the equipment failure risk value has been calculated, but creates disaster scenarios for disasters whose occurrence probability is greater than a predetermined reference value and whose equipment failure risk value is greater than a predetermined threshold value. The created disaster scenario is provided for calculating the equipment failure risk value.

[0058] Next, the simulator device 14 performs a simulation using the disaster scenario as an input condition (step S24). The simulation result is saved in the storage device 16 as a restart file (step S25).

[0059] In this embodiment, when the management device 11 identifies a disaster situation from the detection result of the detection device 12, it accesses the storage device 16 and searches for a restart file corresponding to the disaster situation. If a corresponding restart file exists, the management device 11 reads the restart file and performs a sufficiency determination process.

[0060] According to the present embodiment described above, similar to the first embodiment, it is possible to grasp the status of the thermal resources 40, i.e., steam 40A, hot water 40B, and cold water 40C, generated within a factory or a city block. This makes it possible to improve the feasibility of business continuity planning.

[0061] Furthermore, in this embodiment, the behavior of anticipated major device abnormalities is calculated in advance and saved as a restart file in the storage device 16, and in the event of a disaster, the management device 11 reads the saved restart file. This reduces calculation time, enabling rapid disaster countermeasures.

[0062] Although several embodiments have been described above, these embodiments are presented only as examples and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention. The novel system described in this specification can be embodied in various other forms. Furthermore, various omissions, substitutions, and modifications can be made to the forms of the system described in this specification without departing from the spirit of the invention. The appended claims and their equivalents are intended to cover such forms and modifications that fall within the scope and spirit of the invention. [Explanation of symbols]

[0063] 1, 2: Business Continuity Support System 3: Heat source equipment 10: Switchgear 11: Management device 12:Detection device 14: Simulator device 16:Storage device 20: Lifeline 40: Thermal Resources

Claims

1. a detection device that detects the status of a lifeline supplied to a business continuity support target area and the status of a thermal resource generated in the business continuity support target area; a simulator device that simulates the supply status of the lifelines after a disaster, the supply status of the thermal resources, and the operating status of heat source equipment that consumes the lifelines and generates the thermal resources based on the detection results of the detection device; and A business continuity support system equipped with:

2. 2. The business continuity support system of claim 1, further comprising a management device that calculates the sufficiency rate of the lifelines and the thermal resources based on the simulation results of the simulator device, and classifies the course of action to be taken in the business continuity support target area in the event of a disaster as a disaster response mode based on the calculated sufficiency rate.

3. The system further includes a switching device provided in a supply path of the lifeline and the heat resource, The business continuity support system according to claim 2 , wherein the management device instructs the opening and closing device to close the supply path according to the classified disaster response mode, or controls the operation of the heat source equipment so that the operating rate is reduced.

4. a storage device for storing a restart file indicating a disaster scenario that is preset as a disaster case whose occurrence probability is greater than a predetermined reference value; The business continuity support system according to claim 2 , wherein the management device reads the restart file from the storage device based on the detection result of the detection device.

5. The business continuity support system according to claim 2 , wherein the management device calculates the supply rate by comparing a demand amount under normal circumstances with a supply amount of the lifeline and the thermal resource after a disaster.

6. Detecting the status of lifelines supplied to a business continuity support target area and the status of thermal resources generated in the business continuity support target area; simulating a post-disaster supply status of the lifeline, a supply status of the heat resource, and an operating status of a heat source device that consumes the lifeline and generates the heat resource based on the detection results of the lifeline and the heat resource; Business continuity support methods.

7. A process of detecting the status of lifelines supplied to a business continuity support target area and the status of thermal resources generated in the business continuity support target area; a process of simulating a post-disaster supply status of the lifeline, a supply status of the thermal resource, and an operating status of a heat source device that consumes the lifeline and generates the thermal resource based on the detection results of the lifeline and the thermal resource; A program that causes a computer to execute the following.

Images