Method, system and computer-readable medium for predicting power generation from a small hydroelectric power plant

Abstract

A method, system, and computer-readable medium for predicting the amount of power generated at a small hydroelectric power plant that is comprehensive and has high prediction accuracy are provided. [Solution] A method for predicting the power generation amount of a small-hydroelectric power plant executes step A when multiple data such as a small-hydroelectric power plant ID code, total rainfall, rainfall location, and number of lag days are received, and step A includes the following steps: step a1. Based on the rainfall location and pre-stored location information of the small-hydroelectric power plant, obtain the distance from the rainfall location to the small-hydroelectric power plant; step a2. Based on the total rainfall, number of lag days, the obtained distance, and the pre-stored monthly historical power generation power generation data of the small-hydroelectric power plant, predict the power generation amount of the small-hydroelectric power plant for each day during the lag days period.

Description

[Technical field]

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of data forecasting, and in particular to a method and system for forecasting the amount of power generated by a small hydroelectric power plant. and computer readable media. [Background technology]

[0002] A small hydroelectric power station is a small hydroelectric power station that relies on water resources to generate electricity and has a small installed capacity. The amount of electricity generated is affected by the amount of rainfall. If there is rainfall in the watershed upstream of a small hydroelectric power plant, the rainwater will The rainwater converges on a river where a hydroelectric power plant is located, and becomes a source of power for the small hydroelectric power plant. Because it takes time for rainfall to affect the power output of small hydroelectric power plants, there is a lag. The lagging effect of rainfall on the power output of small hydropower plants is There are several aspects to rainfall, but one of the main aspects is the total rainfall, and the more rainfall there is, the less rainfall there is. The power output of existing small hydroelectric power plants is predicted based on the total rainfall and past The power output of the small hydroelectric power plant is forecast based on the power output of the other small hydroelectric power plants. There are several aspects of rainfall that affect the delay in generating electricity from a small hydroelectric power plant, and in this prior art considers only one of the major aspects of the above impacts, making it incomplete and less predictive There is a problem that... Summary of the Invention

[0003] The technical problem that the present invention aims to solve is a method, system and method for predicting the power generation amount of a small hydroelectric power plant. and a computer readable medium. The measurement accuracy is higher than that of the prior art. In order to solve the above technical problems, the present invention provides a method for predicting the power generation amount of a small hydroelectric power station, Receives multiple data such as small hydroelectric power plant ID code, total rainfall, rainfall location and number of delay days If so, execute step A, which includes the following steps: step a1. Based on the rainfall location and the previously stored location information of the small hydroelectric power plant, Step a2. Obtain the distance to the power plant, and the total rainfall, the number of lag days, the distance obtained above, and Based on the monthly historical power generation data of the small hydroelectric power station stored in advance, the lag period is calculated. The amount of electricity generated by the small hydroelectric power plant for each day during the period is predicted. Furthermore, in step a2, the topographical information of the upstream basin of the small hydroelectric power plant stored in advance is Based on the above, a topography prediction module corresponding to the upstream basin topography of the small hydropower station is started, and the topography prediction module is generated. The shape prediction module is based on the topographical information of the upstream basin of the small hydroelectric power station, The total rainfall amount, the number of lag days provided by the present invention, the distance obtained and the previously stored Based on the monthly historical power generation data of the small hydroelectric power station, The amount of electricity generated by the small hydroelectric power plant is predicted. In addition, the small hydroelectric power plant ID code, total rainfall, rainfall location, number of days delayed, and rainfall stored in the dam lake If multiple data such as the amount of data is received, execute step B, and step B includes the following steps: Step b1. Based on the rainfall location and the location information of the small hydroelectric power station stored in advance, Based on the above, the distance from the rainfall location to the small hydroelectric power plant is obtained, and in step b2, the total rainfall and Based on the rainfall stored in the dam lake, the power generation rainfall is obtained. Step b3. The number of lag days, obtained above The distance, the obtained power generation rainfall and the monthly historical power generation of the small hydroelectric power plant stored in advance. Based on the power data, the power generation amount of the small hydropower plant is predicted for each day during the lag period. . In addition, the small hydroelectric power plant ID code, total rainfall, rainfall location, number of days delayed, rainfall stored in the dam lake, and when multiple data such as rainfall scheduling amount are received, execute step C; Step C includes the following steps: Step c1. The rainfall location and the pre-stored small Based on the location information of the hydroelectric power plant, the distance from the rainfall location to the small hydroelectric power plant is obtained, and the status c2. Power generation based on total rainfall, reservoir rainfall and rainfall scheduling. and in step c3, the number of lag days, the distance obtained, the amount of power generation rainfall obtained, and Based on the monthly historical power generation data of the small hydroelectric power station stored in advance, the lag period is calculated. The amount of electricity generated by the small hydroelectric power plant for each day during the period is predicted. In addition, only the data of the small hydroelectric power plant ID code is received, and the total rainfall, rainfall location and delay are recorded. If data such as number of days, reservoir rainfall amount, and rainfall scheduling amount are not received, In this case, the following step D is carried out: Based on the above, a topography prediction module corresponding to the upstream basin topography of the small hydropower station is started, and the topography prediction module is generated. The shape prediction module uses the topographical information and Based on the previously stored monthly historical power generation data of the small hydroelectric power plant, The amount of power generated by the small hydroelectric power plant is predicted for each day within the prediction threshold period. The present invention further provides a computer readable medium having a computer program pre-stored thereon. The computer program, when executed by a processor, implements the method and apparatus provided by the present invention. The power generation prediction method for a small hydroelectric power plant provided herein can be implemented. In addition, a flat terrain prediction module, a steep terrain prediction module and a flat / steep terrain prediction module are also included. A measurement module is provided. The present invention further provides a power generation prediction system for a small hydroelectric power station, comprising a terminal device, a processor and a computer-readable pre-storage medium coupled to the processor; The computer-readable pre-storage medium is a computer-readable medium provided by the present invention. . In the present invention, the distance from the rainfall position to the small hydroelectric power plant is determined by the time when the rainfall converges to the position of the small hydroelectric power plant. Since the time it takes to generate electricity is affected by the small hydroelectric power generation provided by the present invention, The method for predicting the power generation of a small hydroelectric plant is based on the total rainfall and the distance from the rainfall location to the small hydroelectric plant. The power output of hydroelectric power plants is predicted, and not only the total amount of rainfall but also the distance from the rainfall location to the small hydroelectric power plant is calculated. It also takes into account distance, is more comprehensive than the prior art, and has higher predictive accuracy than the prior art. [Brief description of the drawings]

[0004] [Figure 1] 1 is a flowchart of a method for predicting the amount of power generated at a small hydroelectric power plant. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS

[0005] The present invention will now be described in more detail with reference to specific embodiments. The impact of rainfall on the delay in generating electricity from small hydroelectric power plants is as follows: total rainfall, reservoir storage capacity, etc. The amount of rainfall, the amount of rainfall scheduling, the upstream basin topography of the small hydroelectric power plant and the rainfall location are used to calculate the small hydroelectric power plant. The distance to the hydroelectric power plant is one of the factors. The total rainfall is positively correlated with the power output of small hydroelectric power plants. In other words, the greater the total rainfall, the greater the power output of small hydroelectric power plants. The reservoir where the small hydroelectric power plant is located is a dam because rainwater is stored and may be discharged. The total power generation of the small hydroelectric plant is calculated by subtracting the amount of rainwater discharged from the amount of rainwater stored in the lake. The topography of the upstream basin of a small hydropower plant determines the time required for the convergence of rainfall to the location of the small hydropower plant. The convergence time of rainfall is slightly shorter when the terrain is relatively flat, and is slightly shorter when the terrain is steep. When the difference in elevation is large, the convergence time of rainfall is a little longer, and the distance of rainfall to the location of the small hydroelectric power plant is The distance also affects the convergence time of rainfall, and the convergence time of rainfall is proportional to the distance, that is, the shorter the distance, the The convergence time is shorter. The power generation prediction system for a small hydroelectric power plant includes a terminal device such as a computer. A processor and a computer readable storage medium are provided. In the storage medium, a prediction model is built based on the BP neural network algorithm. The prediction model includes an information module of a small hydropower plant, an information processing module and a prediction The small hydroelectric power plant information module includes monthly historical power generation for each small hydroelectric power plant. Power generation data, location information, and topographical information of the upstream watershed are stored in advance. The module includes the small hydroelectric power plant ID code, total rainfall, rainfall location, number of days delayed, rainfall schedule, etc. It receives multiple data such as rainfall amount and reservoir rainfall amount in the dam lake, and preprocesses these data. The number of lag days is used to calculate the number of days from the first day of rainfall to the nth day of rainfall. The number of days until the water flows downstream of the water supply is n, that is, the number of days of delay is n. Equipped with a flat terrain prediction module, a steep terrain prediction module, and a flat / steep terrain prediction module. Here, the flat terrain prediction module is used to predict the power generation of small hydroelectric power plants where the upstream basin topography is flat. The steepness prediction module is used to predict the amount of rainfall in small areas where the upstream watershed topography is steep. It is used to predict the power output of hydroelectric power plants, and the flat-steep terrain prediction module predicts the upstream flow. It is used to predict the power output of small hydroelectric power plants in areas with flat and steep terrain. A prediction number of days threshold is stored in advance in each of the terrain prediction modules, and the first day of the prediction number of days threshold is Counting from the forecast date, for example, if the forecast day threshold is set to 10, the terrain prediction module will The amount of power generated by a small hydroelectric power plant is predicted for each day from the 1st to the 10th forecast date. The power generation prediction method of a power plant includes an input information step and a prediction step. The steps are described in detail below. In the information input step, data is manually input into the terminal device. When there is rainfall in the upstream basin of a small hydroelectric power plant, and there is rainfall stored in a dam lake, the terminal device Multiple data such as power plant ID code, total rainfall, rainfall location, number of days delayed, and rainfall stored in dam lakes The data must be entered manually, and the lag period is based on the rainfall stored in the dam lake. When rainfall scheduling is performed for the reservoir where the small hydroelectric power plant is located, the terminal device Power plant ID code, total rainfall, rainfall location, number of days delayed, dam lake storage rainfall and rainfall schedule It is necessary to manually input multiple data such as the amount of water discharged from the upstream of a small hydroelectric power plant. There is rainfall in the area, but there is no water resource scheduling for reservoir rainfall and small hydroelectric power plants. If not, the terminal device will receive the small hydroelectric power plant ID code, total rainfall, rainfall location, and number of days delayed. The data for the small hydroelectric power plant must be entered manually. If there is no rain, you can manually enter only the small hydroelectric power plant ID code data into the terminal device. good. The prediction step is performed by storing executable programs in the computer-readable pre-storage medium as shown in FIG. A computer program is pre-stored in the processor, and the processor executes the computer program. By executing the above steps, the prediction steps shown in Figure 1 are realized. The measurement system performs the prediction step based on this, specifically as follows. The information processing module records the small hydroelectric power station ID code, total rainfall, rainfall location, and number of days delayed, etc. When multiple data are received, the power generation forecast system of the small hydroelectric power plant executes step A. wherein step A comprises the steps of: Step a1. The information processing module is connected to the rainfall location and the small hydroelectric power plant information module. Based on the pre-stored small hydroelectric power plant location information, the difference between the rainfall location and the small hydroelectric power plant location is calculated. This is used to calculate the distance from the rainfall location to the small hydroelectric power plant. Step a2. The prediction module is configured to predict the small hydroelectric power station information stored in advance in the information module of the small hydroelectric power station. Based on the topographical information of the upstream basin of the hydroelectric power station, A topography prediction module is started, and the topography prediction module predicts the topography of the upstream basin of the small hydropower plant. Information, total rainfall, number of days of delay, distance obtained and pre-recorded in the information module of the small hydroelectric power plant Based on the monthly historical power generation data of the small hydroelectric power plant stored in the database, each The amount of electricity generated by the small hydroelectric power plant on that day is predicted. Explain step A with an example: The upstream basin topography of power plant N01 is flat, and the monthly historical power generation of small hydroelectric power plant N01 Quantity Data P 歴史1 =(100kW, 500kW, 1000kW, 600kW, 500kW , 400kW, 400kW…200kW, 700kW, 400kW), Small hydroelectric power plant N0 The location of the small hydroelectric power station N is S01, and the location of the small hydroelectric power station N is pre-stored in the information module of the small hydroelectric power station. The upper reaches of No. 02 are steep, and the power generation data for small hydroelectric power plant No. 02 is based on historical monthly power generation data. P 歴史2 =(400kW, 550kW, 600kW, 650kW, 850kW, 1000 kW, 1200kW...800kW, 1000kW, 1500kW), Small hydroelectric power plant N02 The location is S02, and the small hydroelectric power station No. The upstream basin topography of No. 3 is flat and steep, and the monthly historical power generation data of small hydroelectric power plant No. Data P 歴史3 =(1000kW, 900kW, 800kW, 600kW, 600kW, 5 50kW, 400kW...650kW, 400kW, 400kW) and small hydroelectric power plants N The position of 03 is S03, and based on this assumption, the following example is given.

[0006] (1) The small hydroelectric power plant ID code received by the information processing module is N01, and the total rainfall Assume that the rainfall location is S1 and the number of lag days is 10. The information processing module stores the rainfall location S1 and the information module of the small hydroelectric power plant in advance. Based on the small hydroelectric power plant N01 location S01 information, the rainfall location S1 and the small hydroelectric power plant location Calculate the difference between S01, and if the difference is 100 and the unit is km, the rain position The distance from the small hydroelectric power station to the facility is 100 km. Information that the upstream basin topography of small hydroelectric power plant N01 is flat, which is pre-stored in the information module Based on the flat terrain information, a flat terrain prediction module is started, and the flat terrain prediction module Report, total rainfall 10,000m3, delay days 10, distance obtained 100km, and small hydroelectric power generation The monthly historical power generation data of small hydroelectric power plant No. 1 stored in advance in the information module of the plant 歴史1 =(100kW, 500kW, 1000kW, 600kW, 500kW, 400k Small hydroelectric power plants No. 0 based on the following criteria: W, 400kW...200kW, 700kW, 400kW 1 is the power generation amount P for each day from the 1st to the 10th day of the forecast date 予測A1 is 300 kW, 1000kW, 1600kW, 1900kW, 1700kW, 1500kW, 10 It is predicted that the output may be 00kW, 800kW, 600kW or 500kW. (2) The small hydroelectric power plant ID code received by the information processing module is N02, and the total rainfall If the rainfall amount is 10,000 m3, the rainfall location is S2, and the delay days are 5, the information processing model The module detects the rainfall position S2 and the small hydroelectric power station information stored in advance in the information module of the small hydroelectric power station. Based on the power plant N02 position S02 information, the difference between the rainfall position S2 and the small hydroelectric power plant position S02 is calculated. If the difference is 100 and the unit is km, the distance from the rainfall location to the small hydroelectric power plant is The distance to the power station is 100 km. The prediction module is an information module for small hydroelectric power stations. Based on the information that the upstream basin topography of small hydroelectric power station N02 is steep, The steep terrain prediction module is started, and the steep terrain prediction module outputs steep terrain information, total rainfall amount 1 0000m3, delay days 5, distance obtained 100km and information module of small hydroelectric power plant The monthly historical power generation data of small hydroelectric power plants N02 is stored in advance in the 歴史2 =(400 kW, 550kW, 600kW, 650kW, 850kW, 1000kW, 1200kW ...800kW, 1000kW, 1500kW) based on the small hydroelectric power station N02 on the first day The amount of power generation on each day from the first to the fifth day P 予測A2 1600kW, 2100kW, 20 00kW, 1900kW, and possibly 1900kW. (3) The small hydroelectric power plant ID code received by the information processing module is N03, and the total rainfall If the rainfall amount is 10,000 m3, the rainfall location is S3, and the number of lag days is 3, the information processing model The module detects the rainfall position S3 and the small hydroelectric power station information stored in advance in the information module of the small hydroelectric power station. Based on the power plant N02 position S03 information, the difference between the rainfall position S3 and the small hydroelectric power plant position S03 is calculated. If the difference is 50 and the unit is km, the distance from the rainfall location to the small hydroelectric power generation The distance to the site is 50 km. The prediction module is a small hydroelectric power plant information module. Based on the information stored in the database that the upstream basin topography of small hydroelectric power station N03 is flat and steep, The flat / steep terrain prediction module is started, and the flat / steep terrain prediction module predicts the flat / steep terrain information. Report, total rainfall 10,000m3, delay days 3, distance obtained 100km and small hydroelectric power plant The power generation data of small hydroelectric power plants N03 by month, which is stored in advance in the information module of 歴 史3 =(1000kW, 900kW, 800kW, 600kW, 600kW, 550kW , 400kW…650kW, 400kW, 400kW) based on small hydroelectric power plants N03 is the power generation amount P for each day from the 1st to the 3rd day 予測A3 However, 2900kW, 2600kW, 2 It is estimated that it could be 400kW. Based on this, the information processing module further receives the dam lake storage rainfall data, i.e. The information processing module receives the small hydroelectric power plant ID code, total rainfall, rainfall location, number of delay days, and When multiple data such as dam lake storage rainfall are received, the power generation forecast system of a small hydroelectric power plant The system executes step B, which includes the following steps: Step b1. The information processing module is connected to the rainfall location and the small hydroelectric power plant information module. Based on the pre-stored position information of the small hydroelectric power plant, the difference between the rainfall position and the small hydroelectric power plant position is is calculated to obtain the distance from the rainfall location to the small hydroelectric power plant. Step b2. The information processing module calculates the total rainfall amount based on the total rainfall amount and the rainfall amount stored in the dam lake. The difference between the amount of rainfall and the amount of rainfall stored in the dam lake is calculated to determine the actual amount of rainfall used for generating electricity at small hydroelectric power plants. get. Step b3. The prediction module is configured to predict the small hydroelectric power station information stored in advance in the information module of the small hydroelectric power station. Based on the topographical information of the upstream basin of the hydroelectric power station, A topography prediction module is started, and the topography prediction module predicts the topography of the upstream basin of the small hydropower plant. Information, delay days, distance obtained, power generation rainfall obtained and information module for small hydroelectric power plants Based on the monthly historical power generation data of the small hydroelectric power plant stored in advance in the The amount of electricity generated by the small hydroelectric power plant for each day during the period is predicted. Explain step B with an example: The upstream basin topography of power plant N01 is flat, and the monthly historical power generation of small hydroelectric power plant N01 Quantity data P 歴史1 =(100kW, 500kW, 1000kW, 600kW, 500kW , 400kW, 400kW…200kW, 700kW, 400kW), Small hydroelectric power plant N0 The location of the small hydroelectric power station N is S01, and the location of the small hydroelectric power station N is pre-stored in the information module of the small hydroelectric power station. The upper reaches of No. 02 are steep, and the power generation data for small hydroelectric power plant No. 02 is based on historical monthly power generation data. P 歴史2 =(400kW, 550kW, 600kW, 650kW, 850kW, 1000 kW, 1200kW...800kW, 1000kW, 1500kW), Small hydroelectric power plant N02 The location is S02, and the small hydroelectric power station No. The upper reaches of No. 3 are flat and steep, and the power generation data of small hydroelectric power plant No. 3 is TaP 歴史3 =(1000kW, 900kW, 800kW, 600kW, 600kW, 55 0kW, 400kW…650kW, 400kW, 400kW), Small hydroelectric power station N03 location Assuming that is S03, based on this assumption, the following example is given.

[0007] (1) The small hydroelectric power plant ID code received by the information processing module is N01, and the total rainfall The rainfall location is S1, the delay period is 10, and the dam lake storage rainfall is 10,000 m3. When the amount of rainfall is 1000 m3, the information processing module Based on the small hydroelectric power station N01 location S01 information stored in advance in the information module of the station, Calculate the difference between the rainfall location S1 and the small hydroelectric power station location S01, and set the difference to 100 in km. If we assume that the distance from the rainfall location to the small hydroelectric power plant is 100 km, and the total rainfall is Based on the rainfall of 10,000 m3 and the rainfall of 1000 m3 stored in the dam lake, the total rainfall of 10,000 m3 The difference between the rainfall volume of 1000 m3 stored in the dam lake and the actual rainfall volume used for small hydroelectric power plants was calculated. The rainfall is 9,000 m3. The prediction module is stored in the information module of the small hydroelectric power plant. Based on the information that the upstream basin topography of the small hydroelectric power plant N01 is flat, The prediction module is started, and the flat terrain prediction module receives flat terrain information, 10 days of delay, and The distance covered was 100 km, the amount of rainfall obtained was 9,000 m3, and the information module of the small hydroelectric power plant was The monthly historical power generation data of small hydroelectric power plants N01 stored in advance in the module 歴史1 =(1 00kW, 500kW, 1000kW, 600kW, 500kW, 400kW, 400k Based on the W...200kW, 700kW, 400kW), small hydroelectric power station N01 was built on the first day. The amount of power generation on each day from the first day to the 10th day P 予測B1 But 200kW, 900kW, 1500 kW, 1800kW, 1600kW, 1400kW, 900kW, 700kW, 500k The researchers predict that the power consumption could be as high as 400 W and 400 kW. (2) The small hydroelectric power plant ID code received by the information processing module is N02, and the total rainfall The rainfall amount is 10,000 m3, the rainfall location is S2, the delay period is 5 days, and the dam lake storage rainfall amount is 10,000 m3. When the amount of rainfall is 1000 m3, the information processing module detects the rainfall position S2 and the small hydroelectric power generation Based on the small hydroelectric power station N02 location S02 information stored in advance in the information module of the station, Calculate the difference between the rainfall location S2 and the small hydroelectric power station location S02, and set the difference to 100 in km. If we assume that the distance from the rainfall location to the small hydroelectric power plant is 100 km, and the total rainfall is Based on the rainfall of 10,000 m3 and the rainfall of 1000 m3 stored in the dam lake, the total rainfall of 10,000 m3 The difference between the rainfall volume of 1000 m3 stored in the dam lake and the actual rainfall volume used for small hydroelectric power plants was calculated. The rainfall is 9,000 m3. The prediction module is stored in the information module of the small hydroelectric power plant. Based on the information that the upstream basin topography of small hydroelectric power plant N02 is steep, The measurement module is started, and the steep terrain prediction module obtains steep terrain information, delay days 5, and The distance traveled was 100 km, the amount of rainfall obtained was 9,000 m3, and the information module of the small hydroelectric power plant The monthly historical power generation data of small hydroelectric power plants N02 is stored in advance in the歴史2 =(400 kW, 550kW, 600kW, 650kW, 850kW, 1000kW, 1200kW ...800kW, 1000kW, 1500kW) based on the small hydroelectric power station N02 on the first day The amount of power generation on each day from the first to the fifth day P 予測B2 However, 1500kW, 2000kW, 19 00kW, 1800kW, and 1800kW are possible. (3) The small hydroelectric power plant ID code received by the information processing module is N03, and the total rainfall is 10,000 m3, the rainfall location is S3, the delay days are 3, and the rainfall stored in the dam lake When the amount is 1000 m3, the information processing module detects the rainfall position S3 and the small hydroelectric power plant Based on the small hydroelectric power station N03 location S03 information pre-stored in the information module Then, the difference between the rainfall location S3 and the small hydroelectric power plant location S03 is calculated, and the difference is 50, with the unit km, the distance from the rainfall point to the small hydroelectric power plant is 50 km, and the total Based on rainfall of 10,000 m3 and rainfall stored in the dam lake of 1,000 m3, the total rainfall is 1,000 The difference between 0 m3 and the dam lake storage rainfall of 1000 m3 was calculated, and the actual generation capacity used for the small hydroelectric power plant was calculated. The rainfall is 9000 m3. The forecast module is a small hydroelectric power plant information module. Based on the information stored in the database that the upstream basin topography of small hydroelectric power station N03 is flat and steep, The flat / steep terrain prediction module is started, and the flat / steep terrain prediction module predicts the flat / steep terrain information. Report, delay days 3, distance obtained 100km, power generation rainfall obtained 9000m3 and small water The power generation data of small hydroelectric power plant N03 by month, which is stored in advance in the power plant information module, Data P 歴史3 =(1000kW, 900kW, 800kW, 600kW, 600kW, 5 Small hydroelectric power generation based on 50kW, 400kW...650kW, 400kW, 400kW The amount of power generated by plant N03 on each day from the 1st to the 3rd day is P 予測B3 But 2800kW, 2500 kW, and is estimated to be 2,300 kW. Based on this, the information processing module further receives rainfall scheduling amount data; That is, the information processing module receives the small hydroelectric power plant ID code, total rainfall amount, rainfall location, and number of delay days. When multiple data such as dam lake storage rainfall and rainfall scheduling amount are received, The hydroelectric power plant power generation forecasting system executes step C, which includes the following steps: include. Step c1. The information processing module is connected to the information module of the rainfall location and the small hydroelectric power plant. Based on the pre-stored position information of the small hydroelectric power plant, the difference between the rainfall position and the small hydroelectric power plant position is is calculated to obtain the distance from the rainfall location to the small hydroelectric power plant. Step c2. The information processing module calculates the total rainfall amount based on the total rainfall amount and the rainfall amount stored in the dam lake. Calculate the difference between rainfall, reservoir rainfall and rainfall scheduling amount, and use it for small hydroelectric power plants. Obtain the actual power generation rainfall used for Step c3. The prediction module is configured to predict the small hydroelectric power station information stored in advance in the information module of the small hydroelectric power station. Based on the topographical information of the upstream basin of the hydroelectric power station, A topography prediction module is started, and the topography prediction module predicts the topography of the upstream basin of the small hydropower plant. information, delay days, distance obtained above, amount of power generation rainfall obtained above, and information on small hydroelectric power plants Based on the monthly historical power generation data of the small hydroelectric power station pre-stored in the module, The amount of power generated by the small hydroelectric power plant is predicted for each day during the lag period. Explain step C with an example: The upstream basin topography of power plant N01 is flat, and the monthly historical power generation of small hydroelectric power plant N01 Quantity data P 歴史1 =(100kW, 500kW, 1000kW, 600kW, 500kW , 400kW, 400kW...200kW, 700kW, 400kW) and small hydroelectric power generation The location of the small hydroelectric power station is S01, and the small hydroelectric power station information module is The upstream basin of the power station N02 is steep, and the monthly historical power generation data of the small hydroelectric power station N02 Data P 歴史2 =(400kW, 550kW, 600kW, 650kW, 850kW, 10 00kW, 1200kW...800kW, 1000kW, 1500kW) and small hydroelectric power generation The location of the power station N02 is S02, and the small hydroelectric power station information module stores the The upstream basin topography of the power plant N03 is flat and steep, and the monthly historical power generation of the small hydroelectric power plant N03 Power generation data P 歴史3 =(1000kW, 900kW, 800kW, 600kW, 600 kW, 550kW, 400kW...650kW, 400kW, 400kW) and small hydroelectric Assuming that the power plant N03 location is S03, based on this assumption, the following example is given.

[0008] (1) The small hydroelectric power plant ID code received by the information processing module is N01, and the total rainfall The rainfall location is S1, the delay period is 10, and the dam lake storage rainfall is 10,000 m3. If the rainfall is 1000m3 and the rainfall scheduling volume is 4500m3, the information processing module The rainfall location S1 and the small hydroelectric power plant information stored in advance in the information module of the small hydroelectric power plant are Based on the information on the location S01 of the small hydroelectric power plant, the difference between the rainfall location S1 and the location S01 of the small hydroelectric power plant is calculated. If the difference is 100 and the unit is km, the distance from the rainfall location to the small hydroelectric power plant is The distance to the reservoir is 100 km, the total rainfall is 10,000 m3, and the reservoir rainfall is 1,000 m3. Based on the rainfall schedule of 4500m3, the total rainfall of 10000m3 and the reservoir The difference between the stored rainfall volume of 1000m3 and the scheduled rainfall volume of 4500m3 was calculated, and the small hydroelectric power generation The actual generating rainfall used for the power plant is 4500 m3. The prediction module is The upstream basin topography of small hydroelectric power plant N01, which is pre-stored in the power plant information module, is flat. and initiating a flat terrain prediction module based on the information, Flat terrain information, delay days 10, distance obtained 100km, power generation rainfall obtained 4500m 3 and the monthly history of small hydroelectric power station No. 1 pre-stored in the small hydroelectric power station information module Power generation data P 歴史1 =(100kW, 500kW, 1000kW, 600kW, 5 00kW, 400kW, 400kW…200kW, 700kW, 400kW) , the power generation amount P of small hydroelectric power plant N01 on each day from the 1st to the 10th day 予測C1 But, 1 50kW, 700kW, 1250kW, 1500kW, 1400kW, 1300kW, 7 It is predicted that the power output could be 00kW, 550kW, 350kW or 300kW. (2) The small hydroelectric power plant ID code received by the information processing module is N02, and the total rainfall The rainfall amount is 10,000 m3, the rainfall location is S2, the delay period is 5 days, and the dam lake storage rainfall amount is 10,000 m3. If the rainfall is 1000m3 and the rainfall scheduling volume is 4500m3, the information processing module The rainfall location S2 and the small hydroelectric power plant information stored in advance in the information module of the small hydroelectric power plant are Based on the information on the location S02 of the small hydroelectric power plant, the difference between the rainfall location S2 and the location S02 of the small hydroelectric power plant is calculated. If the difference is 100 and the unit is km, the distance from the rainfall location to the small hydroelectric power plant is The distance to the reservoir is 100 km, the total rainfall is 10,000 m3, and the reservoir rainfall is 1,000 m3. Based on the rainfall schedule of 4500m3, the total rainfall of 10000m3 and the reservoir Calculate the difference between the stored rainfall volume of 1000m3 and the rainfall scheduling volume of 4500m3, and The actual generating rainfall used for the hydroelectric power plant is 4500 m3. The prediction module is The upstream topography of small hydroelectric power station N02, which is pre-stored in the hydroelectric power station information module, is steep. Based on the information in the form of a steep terrain prediction module, the steep terrain prediction module , steep terrain information, delay days 5, obtained distance 100km, obtained power generation rainfall 4500m 3 and the small hydroelectric power station information module pre-stored small hydroelectric power station No. 2 monthly history Power generation data P 歴史2 =(400kW, 550kW, 600kW, 650kW, 85 0kW, 1000kW, 1200kW...800kW, 1000kW, 1500kW) Based on this, the power generation amount P of the small hydroelectric power plant N02 on each day from the 1st to the 5th day is 予測C2 but , 950kW, 1150kW, 1250kW, 1100kW, 1050kW possible It is predicted that there is. (3) The small hydroelectric power plant ID code received by the information processing module is N03, and the total rainfall is 10,000 m3, the rainfall location is S3, the delay days are 3, and the rainfall stored in the dam lake If the amount of rainfall is 1000m3 and the amount of rainfall scheduling is 4500m3, the information processing module The rainfall location S3 and the small hydroelectric power plant information module are stored in advance in the small hydroelectric power plant information module. Based on the information on N03 position S03, the rainfall position S3 and the small hydroelectric power plant position S03 Calculate the difference, and if the difference is 100 and the unit is assumed to be km, The distance to the power plant is 100 km, the total rainfall is 10,000 m3, and the rainfall stored in the dam lake is 1 Based on rainfall schedule of 4500m3 and rainfall schedule of 4500m3, the total rainfall volume is 10000m3. Calculate the difference between 3 and the dam lake storage rainfall of 1000m3 and the rainfall scheduling amount of 4500m3. The actual power generation rainfall used for the small hydroelectric power station is 4500 m3. is the upstream basin topography of small hydroelectric power station N03, which is pre-stored in the information module of the small hydroelectric power station. Based on the information that the terrain is flat and steep, a flat and steep terrain prediction module is started, and a flat and steep terrain prediction module is generated. The terrain prediction module is flat and steep terrain information, delay days 3, distance obtained 100 km, The amount of rainfall recorded was 4,500 m3, and the amount of small water stored in the information module of the small hydroelectric power plant was Power Plant N03 Monthly Historical Power Generation Data P 歴史3 =(1000kW, 900kW, 8 00kW, 600kW, 600kW, 550kW, 400kW…650kW, 400kW , 400kW) for each day from the 1st to the 3rd day of the small hydroelectric power plant N03. P 予測C3 However, it is predicted that the power output may be 1550kW, 1800kW, or 1600kW. Measure. The information processing module receives only the small hydroelectric power plant ID code data and calculates the total rainfall and rainfall level. Receive data such as the number of days of delay, rainfall stored in the dam lake, and rainfall scheduling amount. If not, the small hydropower plant power generation forecasting system performs the following steps: Step D. The prediction module predicts the small hydroelectric power plant information stored in advance in the information module of the small hydroelectric power plant. Based on the topographical information of the upstream basin of the small hydroelectric power plant, the topography of the upstream basin of the small hydroelectric power plant is determined. A topography prediction module is started, and the topography prediction module is configured to predict the topography of the upstream basin of the small hydroelectric power station. and the monthly historical power generation of the small hydroelectric power plant pre-stored in the information module of the small hydroelectric power plant. Based on the power generation data of the small hydropower plant, Predict the amount of electricity generated by a power plant. Let us explain step D with an example: The prediction days thresholds stored in the three terrain prediction modules are Both were on the 7th, and the small hydroelectric power station No. The upper reaches of No. 1 are flat, and the monthly historical power generation data for small hydroelectric power plant No. 1 are 歴史1 =(100kW, 500kW, 1000kW, 600kW, 500kW, 400k W, 400kW...200kW, and the small The upstream basin topography of hydroelectric power station N01 is flat, and the monthly historical power generation of small hydroelectric power station N02 is Power generation data P 歴史2 =(400kW, 550kW, 600kW, 650kW, 850k W, 1000kW, 1200kW...800kW, 1000kW, 1500kW) The upstream basin topography of small hydroelectric power station N03 is stored in advance in the information module of the small hydroelectric power station. The area is steep and the power generation data for small hydroelectric power plants N03 Monthly Historical Power Generation Data P 歴史3 =(100 0kW, 900kW, 800kW, 600kW, 600kW, 550kW, 400kW… 650kW, 400kW, and 400kW), based on this assumption, See the example below.

[0009] (1) The small hydropower plant ID code received by the information processing module is N01, and the small hydropower plant The upstream basin topography of small hydroelectric power station N01, which was pre-stored in the power station's information module, was flat. Yes, Small Hydroelectric Power Plant No. 1 Monthly Historical Power Generation Data P 歴史1 =(100kW, 500 kW, 1000kW, 600kW, 500kW, 400kW, 400kW…200kW, 700kW, 400kW), the prediction module is the small hydropower plant information module Based on the information that the upstream basin topography of small hydroelectric power station N01 is flat, , start a flat terrain prediction module, and the flat terrain prediction module receives flat terrain information and The monthly historical power generation of small hydroelectric power plant N01, which is pre-stored in the hydroelectric power plant information module Data P 歴史1 Based on this, small hydroelectric power station N01 will Power generation amount P 予測D1 However, 120kW, 600kW, 1000kW, 700kW, 500kW , 400kW, and possibly 350kW. (2) The small hydropower plant ID code received by the information processing module is N02, and the small hydropower plant The upstream basin topography of small hydroelectric power station N02, which was pre-stored in the power station's information module, is steep. Yes, Small hydroelectric power plant N02 Monthly historical power generation data P 歴史2 =(400kW, 550 kW, 600kW, 650kW, 850kW, 1000kW, 1200kW…800kW , 1000kW, 1500kW), the prediction module uses the information model of the small hydroelectric power plant Based on the information stored in advance in the module that the upstream basin topography of small hydroelectric power plant N02 is steep, Then, a steep terrain prediction module is started, and the steep terrain prediction module obtains steep terrain information and The monthly historical power generation of small hydroelectric power plants No. 1 stored in advance in the small hydroelectric power plant information module Power Data P 歴史2, the amount of electricity generated by small hydroelectric power plant N02 on each day from the 1st to the 7th day P 予測D2 However, 350kW, 500kW, 600kW, 700kW, 900kW, 100 It is predicted that it could be 0kW or 1200kW. (3) The small hydropower plant ID code received by the information processing module is N03, and the small hydropower plant The upstream topography of the small hydroelectric power plant N03, which is pre-stored in the power plant's information module, is flat and steep. The data on the amount of electricity generated by small hydroelectric power plants N03 by month 歴史3 = (1000kW, 900kW, 800kW, 600kW, 600kW, 550kW, 400kW…650k If the power station is a small hydroelectric power station, the prediction module will The information stored in advance in the module that the upstream basin topography of small hydroelectric power plant N03 is flat and steep. Based on the result, a flat steep terrain prediction module is started, and the flat steep terrain prediction module is The steepness information and the information of the small hydroelectric power plant N03 stored in advance in the small hydroelectric power plant information module Monthly historical power generation data P 歴史3 Based on this, small hydroelectric power station N03 will be operated from the 1st to 7th day. The amount of power generated each day up to the first day P 予測D3 However, 1000kW, 850kW, 800kW, 6 It is predicted that the power output could be 00kW, 550kW, 500kW or 400kW. The present invention is based on the idea that rainfall has various effects on the power generation hysteresis of small hydroelectric power plants. The total rainfall, the rainfall stored in the reservoir, and the rainfall scheduling amount were calculated based on the small hydropower generation amount. Considering the impact on the power generation of the small hydroelectric power plant, the topography of the river basin upstream of the small hydroelectric power plant, Considering that the distance of the rainfall location to the small hydroelectric power plant affects the rainfall convergence time, Therefore, the method for predicting the power generation amount of a small hydroelectric power plant provided by the present invention is based on the total rainfall, Rainfall amount stored in Lake Mu, rainfall scheduling amount, upstream basin topography and rainfall location of small hydroelectric power plant Based on the distance from the small hydroelectric power plant to the site, the amount of power generated by the small hydroelectric power plant is predicted, and the amount of power generated by the small hydroelectric power plant is predicted. It is also more comprehensive and has higher predictive accuracy than prior art. The above is merely one embodiment of the present invention, and does not limit the scope of patent protection. Any substantial modifications or replacements made based on the present invention shall be within the scope of patent protection. It shall be so.

Claims

1. When the small hydroelectric power plant ID code, the total rainfall amount, the rainfall location, and the number of delay days are received, step Step A includes the following steps: Step a1. Rainfall location and previously recorded Based on the stored location information of the small hydroelectric power plant, the distance from the rainfall position to the small hydroelectric power plant is calculated. Step a2. The total rainfall amount, the number of lag days, the distance obtained and the previously stored corresponding Based on the monthly historical power generation data of small hydroelectric power plants, A method for predicting the amount of power generated by the small hydroelectric power plant, comprising: Method for predicting power generation.

2. In step a2, based on the topographical information of the upstream basin of the small hydroelectric power plant stored in advance, A topography prediction module corresponding to the topography of the upstream basin of the small hydroelectric power station is started, and the topography prediction module Topographical information of the upstream basin of the small hydroelectric power plant predicted by Joule, the total rainfall, and the number of days of lag The distance obtained and the monthly historical power generation data of the small hydroelectric power plant stored in advance Based on the above, predict the amount of power generated by the small hydroelectric power plant for each day during the lag period.

2. A method for predicting power generation amount of a small hydroelectric power plant, comprising:

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