Recovery and transportation plan creation device and recovery and transportation plan creation method

Abstract

To provide a technique that enables appropriate creation of transportation network restoration plan proposals and transportation plan proposals.SOLUTION: The technique includes calculating a restoration plan proposal that will ensure that the total amount of resources to be input to affected sections / points of a transportation network is less than or equal to a given maximum input resource amount / base maximum input resource amount, and calculating a transportation plan proposal based on calculation results of the restoration plan proposal. The technique further includes calculating, as the transportation plan proposal, a detour transportation plan proposal in which the remaining transportation amount for each day is transported on a detour transportation route on a transportation network that is different in part or in whole from a normal transportation route, and an alternative transportation plan proposal in which a detour remaining transportation amount, which is the remaining amount that cannot be transported by the detour transportation according to the detour transportation plan proposal, for each day is transported by an alternative transportation network in which a part or the whole of the transportation section is an alternative transportation section by alternative transportation means.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 3

Description

[Technical field]

[0001] The present invention relates to a restoration and transportation plan creating device that creates a restoration and transportation plan for a transportation network. [Background technology]

[0002] In the case of railways, when tracks are disrupted due to natural disasters caused by abnormal natural phenomena such as heavy rain, heavy snow, strong winds, and earthquakes, operation is resumed after restoration work such as inspection and repair is performed. In order to resume operation as soon as possible, it is necessary to quickly restore the disrupted parts. In recent years, the occurrence of widespread disruptions due to large-scale natural disasters such as major earthquakes and large typhoons has been increasing. Railway operators are required to have stable transportation capacity, and are required to continue train operations and achieve early restoration even after a disaster occurs. A technology that supports the creation of restoration plans in the event of such disruptions due to disasters is known (for example, see Patent Document 1). [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0003] [Patent Document 1] JP 2021-111087 A Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0004] In recent years, due to the frequent occurrence of large-scale natural disasters, railway operators are promoting capital investment in railway facilities, such as the renovation of stations and tracks, with the aim of preventing and mitigating the next large-scale natural disaster that may occur in the future. However, since the area that may be affected by a large-scale natural disaster is vast, there are many railway facilities that are subject to capital investment, and it is necessary to evaluate which areas should be focused on for capital investment in order to be effective from the perspective of disaster prevention and mitigation.

[0005] Specifically, when carrying out restoration work, railway operators not only want to quickly restore transportation capacity, but also want to reduce the loss costs incurred when a disaster occurs. For this reason, it is considered useful to evaluate capital investment plans for disaster prevention and mitigation from the perspective of cost.

[0006] However, the cost of losses incurred during the recovery period from the occurrence of a disaster to complete recovery depends on the transportation plan, which specifies how transportation will be handled during the recovery period, and the recovery plan, which is the premise for executing the transportation plan. The recovery plan itself may also change depending on the capital investment plan. Therefore, in order to evaluate a capital investment plan from the perspective of cost, it is necessary to calculate a recovery plan proposal based on the contents of the capital investment plan, calculate a transportation plan under this recovery plan proposal, and quantify transportation during the recovery period. Technology is required to appropriately create recovery plan proposals and transportation plan proposals.

[0007] These problems are not limited to railroads, but also apply to other transportation networks such as highways.

[0008] The problem to be solved by the present invention is to provide a technique that enables appropriate creation of a restoration plan proposal and a transportation plan proposal for a transportation network. [Means for solving the problem]

[0009] The first invention for solving the above problem is: A recovery and transportation plan creation device that creates a recovery and transportation plan when a plurality of transportation sections become disrupted sections in a transportation network, which is a collection of transportation sections by a predetermined transportation means connecting bases, comprising: For each affected section, a required resource accumulation amount is set for each restoration level, which indicates the accumulated amount of restoration resources (hereinafter, restoration resources are referred to as "resources") required to reach that restoration level, and an upper limit of the amount of transportation that can be transported per day at that restoration level. A transport demand setting means (for example, the transport demand setting unit 202 in FIG. 37) for setting a normal transport handling volume for each day for each normal transport route from a given departure point to a given destination point as a transport demand; a recovery plan proposal calculation means (e.g., the recovery plan proposal calculation unit 204 in FIG. 37 ) that calculates a recovery plan proposal so that the total amount of resources to be input to the affected sections for each day is equal to or less than a given upper limit of input resource amount, and that calculates the recovery plan proposal by: 1) determining the degree of recovery of each affected section; 2) calculating a handling record forecast amount when the transportation demand is applied based on the transportation volume upper limit corresponding to the degree of recovery; and 3) calculating a remaining transportation volume that is the remainder that cannot be transported with the handling record forecast amount to transport the transportation demand; A transportation plan calculation means (for example, the transportation plan calculation unit 210 in FIG. 37) for calculating a transportation plan based on the calculation result of each day by the recovery plan calculation means; Equipped with The transportation plan calculation means includes: A detour transportation plan calculation means (e.g., the detour transportation plan calculation unit 212 in FIG. 37 ) that calculates, for each day, a detour transportation plan in which the remaining transportation volume is detouring via a detour transportation route in the transportation network that is partially or entirely different from the normal transportation route, as one of the transportation plan proposals; An alternative transport network setting means for setting an alternative transport network in which a part or all of the transport section is an alternative transport section by an alternative transport means; An alternative transportation plan calculation means (e.g., an alternative transportation plan calculation unit 216 in FIG. 37 ) for calculating, for each day, an alternative transportation plan in which a detouring remaining transportation volume, which is a remainder of the remaining transportation volume that cannot be transported by the detouring transportation of the detouring transportation plan, is transported through the alternative transportation network as one of the transportation plan plans; having This is a device for creating recovery and transportation plans.

[0010] Other inventions include: A method for creating a recovery and transportation plan for a computer system that creates a recovery and transportation plan when a plurality of transportation sections in a transportation network, which is a collection of transportation sections by a predetermined transportation means connecting bases, become affected, comprising the steps of: For each affected section, a required resource accumulation amount is set for each restoration level, which indicates the accumulated amount of restoration resources (hereinafter, restoration resources are referred to as "resources") required to reach that restoration level, and an upper limit of the amount of transportation that can be transported per day at that restoration level. A transportation demand setting step of setting a normal transportation handling volume for each day for each normal transportation route from a given departure point to a given destination point as a transportation demand; a recovery plan calculation step of calculating a recovery plan so that the total amount of resources to be input to the affected sections for each day is equal to or less than a given upper limit of input resource amount, in which the recovery plan calculation step calculates the recovery plan for each day by: 1) determining the degree of recovery of each affected section; 2) calculating a predicted handling record amount when the transportation demand is applied based on the upper limit of transportation volume corresponding to the degree of recovery; and 3) calculating a residual transportation volume that is the remainder that cannot be transported with the predicted handling record amount to transport the transportation demand. a detour transportation plan calculation step of calculating, for each day, a detour transportation plan in which the remaining transportation volume is detouring via a detour transportation route in the transportation network that is partially or entirely different from the normal transportation route, as one of the transportation plan proposals; An alternative transportation network setting step of setting an alternative transportation network in which a part or all of the transportation section is an alternative transportation section by an alternative transportation means; a substitute transportation plan calculation step of calculating, for each day, a substitute transportation plan for transporting a detouring remaining transportation amount, which is a remainder of the remaining transportation amount that cannot be transported by the detouring transportation of the detouring transportation plan, through the substitute transportation network as one of the transportation plan plans; A method for creating a recovery and transportation plan including the steps of:

[0011] According to the first invention, it is possible to appropriately create a restoration plan and a transportation plan for a transportation network. That is, an appropriate restoration plan is created so that the total amount of resources to be input to the affected sections on each day is equal to or less than a given upper limit of the input resource amount, and an appropriate transportation plan is created under the restoration plan. In particular, in creating the transportation plan, a handling performance forecast volume when applying the transportation demand based on the upper limit of the transportation volume according to the degree of recovery of each affected section, and a residual transportation volume that is the remainder that cannot transport the transportation demand with the handling performance forecast volume are calculated for each day. Then, a transportation plan is calculated based on the handling performance forecast volume and the residual transportation volume for each day. As the transportation plan, a detour transportation plan and a substitute transportation plan are calculated. The detour transportation plan is a transportation plan in which the residual transportation volume is transported by a detour transportation route that is partially or entirely different from the normal transportation route. The substitute transportation plan is a transportation plan in which the detouring remaining transportation volume, which is the remainder of the remaining transportation volume that cannot be transported by the detouring transportation, is transported through a substitute transportation network in which a part or all of the transportation section is a substitute transportation section by a substitute transportation means.

[0012] The second invention is the first invention, The detouring transportation plan calculation means calculates the detouring transportation plan that satisfies a predetermined detouring transportation volume maximization condition by using a surplus transportable volume in which the transport volume upper limit according to the restoration degree of each affected section exceeds the handling performance predicted volume. This is a device for creating recovery and transportation plans.

[0013] According to the second aspect of the present invention, a detouring transportation plan can be created so as to satisfy a predetermined condition for maximizing the detouring transportation volume by using the surplus transportable volume where the upper transport volume limit according to the restoration degree of each affected section exceeds the predicted handling volume. This makes it possible to create a detouring transportation plan that is optimal from the user's point of view, with the detouring transportation volume maximized.

[0014] The third invention is the first or second invention, A transportation cost is set for each transportation section. The detour transportation plan calculation means calculates the detour transportation plan based on a transportation cost related to the detour transportation based on the transportation unit price. This is a device for creating recovery and transportation plans.

[0015] According to the third invention, the detour transportation plan can be calculated based on the transportation cost related to the detour transportation. The transportation cost related to the detour transportation is based on the transportation unit price determined for each transportation section. This makes it possible to create a detour transportation plan that minimizes the transportation cost related to the detour transportation, for example. This can be a favorable detour transportation plan from the viewpoint of a business operator operating a transportation network.

[0016] A fourth aspect of the present invention is any one of the first to third aspects of the present invention, The substitute transportation plan calculation means calculates the substitute transportation plan that satisfies a predetermined substitute transportation volume maximization condition. This is a device for creating recovery and transportation plans.

[0017] According to the fourth aspect of the present invention, the substitute transportation schedule can be calculated so as to satisfy a predetermined condition for maximizing the amount of substitute transportation. This makes it possible to calculate a substitute transportation schedule that maximizes the amount of substitute transportation. This can be a suitable substitute transportation schedule from the viewpoint of users who use the transportation network.

[0018] A fifth aspect of the present invention is any one of the first to fourth aspects of the present invention, The substitute transportation network setting means further sets a substitute transportation unit price by the substitute transportation means and a transshipment cost at a node where transshipment between the transportation means and the substitute transportation means is possible; the substitute transportation plan calculation means calculates the substitute transportation plan based on the substitute transportation unit price and the transshipment cost; This is a device for creating recovery and transportation plans.

[0019] According to the fifth aspect of the present invention, the substitute transportation plan can be calculated based on the substitute transportation unit price by the substitute transportation means and the transshipment cost at the node where transshipment between the transportation means and the substitute transportation means is possible. This makes it possible to create a substitute transportation plan that minimizes the cost related to the substitute transportation taking into account the transshipment cost, for example. This can be a suitable substitute transportation plan from the viewpoint of the business operator operating the transportation network.

[0020] The sixth invention is the first to fifth inventions, A storage transport volume calculation means (e.g., the storage transport volume calculation unit 218 in FIG. 37 ) for adding a transport volume for which the substitute transport was not performed according to the substitute transport plan to the remaining transport volume for the next day; Further comprising: the detour transportation plan proposal calculation means calculates the detour transportation plan proposal based on the remaining transportation volume after the addition by the storage transportation volume calculation means. This is a device for creating recovery and transportation plans.

[0021] According to the sixth aspect of the present invention, a detouring transportation plan can be calculated based on the remaining transportation volume after adding the transportation volume that was not transported according to the alternative transportation plan to the remaining transportation volume for the next day, thereby making it possible to create a transportation plan that is in line with reality.

[0022] A seventh aspect of the present invention is any one of the first to sixth aspects of the present invention, Among the bases, for each of the affected bases, a base required resource accumulated amount indicating an accumulated amount of resources required to reach the affected base for each recovery level and an upper limit of the transportation volume that can be departed from and arrived at the affected base at the recovery level are defined; A base input upper limit resource amount setting means (for example, the base input upper limit resource amount setting unit 206 in FIG. 37) for setting a base input upper limit resource amount per day for the affected base; Further comprising: the recovery plan calculation means calculates a site recovery plan related to resource input to the affected site so that a total amount of resources to be input to the affected site for each day is equal to or less than the site input upper limit resource amount; This is a device for creating recovery and transportation plans.

[0023] According to the seventh aspect of the present invention, a base recovery plan can be created regarding the amount of resources to be input to the affected base each day. This makes it possible to create a base recovery plan for the base in addition to a recovery plan for the transportation section.

[0024] The eighth aspect of the present invention relates to the seventh aspect of the present invention, Among the disruption bases, for disruption bases that are bases where transshipment between the transport means and the substitute transport means is possible, an upper limit of the transshipment transportation volume according to the degree of recovery is set, The substitute transportation plan calculation means calculates the substitute transportation plan so that a transshipment transportation volume, which is a transportation volume passing through the disruption node, is equal to or less than the transshipment transportation volume upper limit determined according to the degree of recovery. This is a device for creating recovery and transportation plans.

[0025] According to the eighth aspect of the present invention, the proposed substitute transportation plan can be calculated so that the transshipment transportation volume passing through a disruption node among the disruption nodes, where transshipment between a transportation means and a substitute transportation means is possible, is equal to or less than the upper limit of the transshipment transportation volume determined according to the degree of recovery of the disruption node.

[0026] The ninth aspect of the present invention is the seventh or eighth aspect of the present invention, The recovery plan calculation means calculates the expected handling volume of 2) when the transportation demand is applied to the transportation network based on the upper limit of the departure and arrival transportation volume corresponding to the recovery degree of each affected base and the upper limit of the transportation volume corresponding to the recovery degree of each affected section. This is a device for creating recovery and transportation plans.

[0027] According to the ninth aspect of the present invention, it is possible to calculate the expected handling volume when applying transportation demand to a transportation network, based on the upper limit of departure and arrival transportation volume according to the degree of recovery of the affected base and the upper limit of transportation volume according to the degree of recovery of the affected section.

[0028] A tenth aspect of the present invention is any one of the first to ninth aspects of the present invention, an investment plan setting means for setting an investment plan that defines an investment target section, which is the obstacle section that is the target for reducing the required resource integrated amount, and an investment cost that indicates a given reduction amount of the required resource integrated amount; an investment plan proposal evaluation control means for causing the recovery plan proposal calculation means to create the recovery plan proposal based on before and after application of the investment plan proposal that reduces the required resource integrated amount in accordance with the investment plan proposal set by the investment plan proposal setting means, and causing the transportation plan proposal calculation means to calculate the transportation plan proposal based on the calculation result of the recovery plan proposal calculation means, and evaluating the investment plan proposal using a comparison result of a predetermined cost based on the transportation plan proposal before and after application of the investment plan proposal and the investment cost; This is a recovery and transportation plan creation device that has the following features.

[0029] According to the tenth aspect of the present invention, a proposed investment plan is set that defines an investment target section and an investment cost indicating the reduction in the required resource integrated amount for the investment target section, and a proposed recovery plan based on both before and after application of the proposed investment plan and a proposed transportation plan based on the calculation result of the proposed recovery plan are calculated. The proposed investment plan can then be evaluated using a comparison result of a predetermined cost based on the proposed transportation plan before and after application of the proposed investment plan and the investment cost. This makes it possible to evaluate a proposed investment plan for a transportation section for the purpose of disaster prevention and mitigation from the perspective of cost, using the proposed recovery plan before and after application of the proposed investment plan, and a transportation plan according to the proposed recovery plan.

[0030] An eleventh aspect of the present invention is the method according to any one of the seventh to ninth aspects of the present invention, an investment plan setting means for setting an investment plan that defines an investment target section, which is the obstacle section that is the target for reducing the required resource integrated amount, an investment cost indicating a given reduction amount of the required resource integrated amount, an investment target base, which is the obstacle base that is the target for reducing the base required resource integrated amount, and a base investment cost indicating the given reduction amount of the base required resource integrated amount; an investment plan proposal evaluation control means for causing the recovery plan proposal calculation means to create the recovery plan proposal based on both before and after application of the investment plan proposal which reduces the required resource accumulated amount and the base required resource accumulated amount in accordance with the investment plan proposal set by the investment plan proposal setting means, and causing the transportation plan proposal calculation means to calculate the transportation plan proposal based on a calculation result of the recovery plan proposal calculation means, and for evaluating the investment plan proposal using a comparison result of a predetermined cost based on the transportation plan proposal before and after application of the investment plan proposal, the investment cost, and the base investment cost; This is a recovery and transportation plan creation device that has the following features.

[0031] According to the eleventh invention, an investment plan is set that defines an investment target section, an investment cost indicating the reduction in the required resource accumulated amount of the investment target section, and an investment target base and a base investment cost indicating the reduction in the base required resource accumulated amount of the investment target base. Also, a recovery plan based on before and after application of the investment plan and a transportation plan based on the calculation result of the recovery plan are calculated. Then, the investment plan can be evaluated using a comparison result of a predetermined cost based on the transportation plan before and after application of the investment plan and the investment cost (base investment cost). This makes it possible to evaluate an investment plan for a transportation section for the purpose of disaster prevention and mitigation from the viewpoint of cost using the recovery plan before and after application of the investment plan and the transportation plan according to the recovery plan.

[0032] The twelfth invention is A recovery and transportation plan creation device that creates a recovery and transportation plan when a plurality of transportation sections become disrupted sections in a transportation network, which is a collection of transportation sections by a predetermined transportation means connecting bases, comprising: For each affected section, a required resource accumulation amount is set for each restoration level, which indicates the accumulated amount of restoration resources (hereinafter, restoration resources are referred to as "resources") required to reach that restoration level, and an upper limit of the amount of transportation that can be transported per day at that restoration level. A transport demand setting means (for example, the transport demand setting unit 202 in FIG. 37) for setting a normal transport handling volume for each day for each normal transport route from a given departure point to a given destination point as a transport demand; a recovery plan proposal calculation means (e.g., the recovery plan proposal calculation unit 204 in FIG. 37 ) that calculates a recovery plan proposal so that the total amount of resources to be input to the affected sections for each day is equal to or less than a given upper limit of input resource amount, and that calculates the recovery plan proposal by: 1) determining the degree of recovery of each affected section; 2) calculating a predicted handling performance amount when the transportation demand is applied based on the upper transportation volume limit corresponding to the degree of recovery; and 3) calculating a residual transportation volume that is a remainder of the predicted handling performance amount with respect to the transportation demand; A transportation plan calculation means (for example, the transportation plan calculation unit 210 in FIG. 37) for calculating a transportation plan based on the calculation result of each day by the recovery plan calculation means; Equipped with The transportation plan calculation means includes: a detour transportation plan calculation means for calculating a detour transportation plan for each day in which the remaining transportation volume is detouring via a detouring route on the transportation network which is partially or entirely different from the normal transportation route, the detour transportation plan calculation means calculating, as one of the transportation plan proposals, the detour transportation plan proposal that satisfies a predetermined detour transportation volume maximization condition by using an excess transportable volume in which the transportation volume upper limit according to the restoration degree of each affected section exceeds the handling performance forecast volume (for example, the detour transportation plan calculation unit 212 in FIG. 37 ); having This is a device for creating recovery and transportation plans.

[0033] Other inventions include: A transportation schedule creation method for creating a recovery and transportation plan when a plurality of transportation sections in a transportation network, which is a collection of transportation sections by a predetermined transportation means connecting base stations, become disrupted, using a computer system, comprising: For each affected section, a required resource accumulation amount is set for each restoration level, which indicates the accumulated amount of restoration resources (hereinafter, restoration resources are referred to as "resources") required to reach that restoration level, and an upper limit of the amount of transportation that can be transported per day at that restoration level. A transportation demand setting step of setting a normal transportation handling volume for each day for each normal transportation route from a given departure point to a given destination point as a transportation demand; a recovery plan calculation step of calculating a recovery plan so that the total amount of resources to be input to the affected sections for each day is equal to or less than a given upper limit of input resource amount, the recovery plan calculation step calculating the recovery plan for each day by: 1) determining the degree of recovery of each affected section; 2) calculating a predicted handling performance amount when the transportation demand is applied based on the upper transportation volume limit corresponding to the degree of recovery; and 3) calculating a residual transportation volume which is a remainder of the predicted handling performance amount with respect to the transportation demand; a detour transportation plan calculation step for calculating a detour transportation plan for each day in which the remaining transportation volume is detouring via a detour transportation route in the transportation network that is partially or entirely different from the normal transportation route, in which the detour transportation plan is calculated as one of the transportation plan proposals by using a surplus transportable volume in which the transportation volume upper limit according to the restoration degree of each affected section exceeds the handling performance forecast volume; A method for creating a recovery and transportation plan including the steps of:

[0034] According to the twelfth invention, it is possible to appropriately create a restoration plan and a transportation plan for a transportation network. That is, it is possible to create an appropriate restoration plan such that the total amount of resources to be input to the affected sections on each day is equal to or less than a given upper limit of the input resource amount, and to create an appropriate transportation plan under the restoration plan. In particular, in creating the transportation plan, for each day, a predicted handling performance amount when a transportation demand based on a transportation volume upper limit according to the recovery degree of each affected section is applied, and a residual transportation volume that is a remainder that cannot transport the transportation demand with the predicted handling performance amount are calculated. Then, a transportation plan is calculated based on the predicted handling performance amount and the residual transportation volume for each day. As the transportation plan, a detour transportation plan for transporting the residual transportation volume by a detour transportation route that is partially or entirely different from the normal transportation route is created so as to satisfy a predetermined detour transportation volume maximization condition by using a surplus transportable volume in which the transportation volume upper limit according to the recovery degree of each affected section exceeds the predicted handling performance amount. This makes it possible to create a detour transportation plan in which the detour transportation volume is maximized. This could be a suitable alternative transportation plan from the perspective of users of the transportation network. [Brief description of the drawings]

[0035] [Figure 1] An example of a transportation network. [Diagram 2] Outline of the development of a proposed recovery and transportation plan. [Diagram 3] 13 is a flowchart for the process of creating a recovery and transportation plan. [Figure 4] An explanatory diagram of minimizing lost transportation volume and lost transportation capacity. [Diagram 5] An example of transportation demand data. [Figure 6] An example of transportation cost setting data. [Figure 7] An example of transshipment unit price setting data. [Figure 8] An example of link required personnel cumulative number data. [Figure 9] 13 is an example of link upper limit staffing data. [Figure 10] 13 is an example of link transport capacity setting data. [Figure 11] 13 is an example of pass / no pass setting data. [Figure 12] Node required staff cumulative data [Figure 13] 13 is an example of node upper limit staffing number data. [Figure 14] 13 is an example of node transport capacity setting data. [Figure 15] An example of transshipment capacity setting data. [Figure 16] An example of storage capacity setting data. [Figure 17] A list of decision variables in calculating the proposed link restoration plan. [Figure 18] An example of link restoration plan data. [Figure 19] An example of link capacity data. [Figure 20] A list of decision variables in computing the proposed node restoration plan. [Figure 21] 13 is an example of node recovery plan data. [Figure 22] An example of normal transport plan data. [Diagram 23] An example of link remaining capacity data. [Figure 24] 13 is an example of node remaining capacity data. [Diagram 25] An example of remaining cargo volume data. [Figure 26] An example of transhipment capacity data. [Figure 27] An example of storage capacity data. [Figure 28] A list of decision variables in calculating alternative transportation plans. [Figure 29] An example of detour transportation plan proposal data. [Diagram 30] 13 is an example of link detouring remaining capacity data. [Diagram 31] 13 is an example of node detouring remaining transport capacity data. [Diagram 32] An example of remaining diversion cargo volume data. [Diagram 33] A list of decision variables in calculating the alternative transportation plan. [Diagram 34] An example of alternative transportation plan data. [Diagram 35] An example of loss cost data. [Diagram 36] An example of multiple anticipated disasters. [Figure 37] Functional configuration diagram of the recovery and transportation plan creation device. [Figure 38] FIG. 13 is a functional configuration diagram of the memory section of the recovery and transportation plan creation device. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS

[0036] Hereinafter, preferred embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. Note that the form to which the present invention can be applied is not limited to the following embodiments. In addition, in the description of the drawings, the same elements are given the same reference numerals.

[0037] [overview] The restoration and transportation plan creation device 1 of this embodiment is a device that creates a restoration plan proposal in a case where a disaster occurs in the transportation network, and a transportation plan proposal under the restoration plan proposal, in order to evaluate a capital investment plan proposal formulated for the transportation network from the viewpoint of cost. The disaster is assumed to be a large-scale natural disaster such as a major earthquake or a large typhoon. Due to the influence of the disaster, the transportation network is affected by a transportation section or base that is in a disrupted state that requires the input of resources, which are restoration resources, and there are disrupted sections and disrupted bases. Specifically, resources are personnel and work machines that can be input for restoration work, but in this embodiment, personnel will be described as a representative resource.

[0038] A capital investment plan is a plan for capital investment in railway facilities, such as the repair of stations and tracks for the purpose of disaster prevention and mitigation, assuming a large-scale natural disaster that may occur in the future, and it specifies the amount of capital investment to be made in which railway facilities. When capital investment is made in the transportation network according to the capital investment plan, the number of days required for full recovery may be reduced for the affected sections and bases where the capital investment was made, because the resources required for recovery may be reduced. As a result, the transportation plan may also change.

[0039] The restoration / transportation plan creation device 1, as described in detail below, calculates a restoration plan and a transport plan in the case where a disaster occurs in the transport network, and calculates the loss cost when transport is carried out according to the transport plan. The loss cost is calculated as the increase in transport cost incurred during the recovery period from the occurrence of a disaster to complete recovery when transport is carried out according to the transport plan, relative to the transport cost during normal times when no disaster occurs.

[0040] By using this loss cost, it is possible to evaluate proposed capital investment plans from the viewpoint of cost. For example, a plurality of proposed capital investment plans for a given transportation network is formulated. Then, for each of these proposed capital investment plans, the total cost is calculated by combining the investment cost required for implementing the proposed capital investment plan with the loss cost that would occur if a given disaster were to occur in the transportation network after the proposed capital investment plan is implemented, and the total costs for each proposed capital investment plan are compared to evaluate the proposed capital investment plans from the viewpoint of cost.

[0041] (A) Transportation Network FIG. 1 is an example of a transportation network. A transportation network is a collection of transportation sections by a predetermined transportation means connecting bases. In this embodiment, it is expressed as an undirected graph with bases as nodes and transportation sections as links. Also, a railway transportation network that transports railway freight is taken as the transportation network. In other words, bases as nodes are freight stations, signal stations, etc. Transportation sections as links are railway line sections (railroad links) where the transportation means is a freight train, and roads (road links) where the transportation means is a truck, etc.

[0042] In a transportation network, rail freight to be transported is transported through links from a departure node, which is a predetermined departure point, to a destination node, which is a destination point. There are three types of transportation routes for rail freight: normal transportation route, detour transportation route, and substitute transportation route, which correspond to the transportation mode (normal transportation, detour transportation, and substitute transportation). The normal transportation route is a route that is predetermined as a transportation route under normal circumstances, and is a route that passes only through rail links. The detour transportation route is a route when detouring according to a detour transportation plan, which is one of the transportation plan proposals described later, and is a route that passes only through rail links but is partially or entirely different from the normal transportation route. The substitute transportation route is a route when transporting according to a substitute transportation plan, which is one of the transportation plan proposals described later, and is a route that includes road links in part or entirely. In other words, road links are used only for substitute transportation.

[0043] (B) Outline of the preparation of the restoration and transportation plan Fig. 2 is a diagram showing an overview of the creation of a restoration and transportation plan. As shown in Fig. 2, data such as information on the transportation network, information on transportation demand, which is the normal transportation handling volume of railway freight in the transportation network under normal circumstances, information on a disruption caused in the transportation network due to a disaster, and various constraints on the restoration of the transportation network and the transportation of railway freight during the restoration process are input as input data to the restoration and transportation plan creation device 1. Using these input data, the restoration and transportation plan creation device 1 calculates a restoration plan for the transportation network in response to the disruption that has occurred, a transportation plan for the transportation demand under the restoration plan, and loss costs incurred when transportation according to the transportation plan is carried out, and outputs them as output data.

[0044] (C) Overview of the process FIG. 3 is a flowchart showing an outline of the flow of the restoration and transportation plan creation process performed by the restoration and transportation plan creation device 1.

[0045] The restoration and transportation plan creation device 1 first sets links (affected links) and nodes (affected nodes) in the transportation network that have been affected according to the inputted information on the disruption (step S1). A disruption means that a state in which the input of resources, which are restoration resources, is required. However, it is assumed that only railroad links are affected and road links are not affected. In other words, it is assumed that only railroad links are affected and road links are not affected. It is also assumed that immediately after the occurrence of a disaster, all railroad links and nodes, including affected links and nodes, are in a non-functional state, and the transportation of railroad freight becomes impossible (cannot be passed through). It is assumed that the affected links and nodes are restored (the transportation of railroad freight becomes possible) through inspection and restoration work, and that the railroad links and nodes that are not affected are restored through inspection work.

[0046] Next, a link restoration plan proposal, which is a restoration plan proposal for links, is created as one of the restoration plan proposals for the transportation network (step S3). The link restoration plan proposal is created under the assumption that all nodes have been restored (or that no problems have occurred). Next, a node restoration plan proposal, which is a restoration plan proposal for nodes, is created (step S5). The node restoration plan proposal is created on the assumption that each link will be restored in sequence according to the above-mentioned link restoration plan proposal.

[0047] A recovery plan is a plan for the number of workers to be deployed (allocated) as recovery resources for each day from the occurrence of a disaster to the complete restoration of the entire transportation network (restoration period). In other words, a link restoration plan is a plan for the number of workers to be deployed to each link on each day, and a node restoration plan is a plan for the number of workers to be deployed to each node on each day.

[0048] In this embodiment, when creating a restoration plan, inspection work is first performed for each railway link / node, and restoration work is performed after the inspection work is completed. In addition, the work personnel (inspection personnel / restoration personnel) for each work are determined separately. And, for each railway link / node, the required number of inspection personnel, which is the total number of inspection personnel required to complete the inspection work, is determined.

[0049] In addition, each railway link / node is restored in stages from a non-functional state to a fully restored state through restoration work, and a required cumulative number of restoration personnel is set, which is the cumulative number of restoration personnel required to reach each stage of restoration. In this embodiment, the restoration degree is set to two stages, a temporary restoration state and a fully restored state, but it may be set to three or more stages. In other words, a railway link / node is in one of the following states: a non-functional state, an inspected state, a temporary restoration state, and a fully restored state. In addition, an upper limit is set for the total number of each type of work personnel (inspection personnel, restoration personnel) that can be deployed to the entire transportation network per day, and for each type of work personnel (inspection personnel, restoration personnel) that can be deployed to each railway link / node per day.

[0050] Draft restoration plans (draft link restoration plans and draft node restoration plans) are created to minimize lost transportation volume and lost transportation capacity. Here, transportation capacity means the capacity or potential that can be transported, and refers to the maximum amount that can be transported per day. Therefore, lost transportation capacity means the transportation capacity that is reduced from the original transportation capacity due to the disruption. When creating the draft restoration plan, lost transportation volume and lost transportation capacity are considered for the transportation network made up of rail links and nodes, that is, the transportation network excluding road links. This is based on the assumption that road links will not be disrupted and that there are no restrictions on transportation capacity.

[0051] In a transportation network, each rail link has a transport capacity, which is the upper limit of the amount of transport that can be transported per day. There is no limit to the transport capacity of road links. Also, each node has a transport capacity, which is the upper limit of the amount of transport that can depart and arrive per day (departure transport capacity, which is the upper limit of the amount of transport that can depart, arrival transport capacity, which is the upper limit of the amount of transport that can arrive, and departure / arrival transport capacity, which is the upper limit of the amount of transport that can depart or arrive). Therefore, there is a limit to the transport capacity of the transportation network as a whole.

[0052] Figure 4 is a diagram explaining the lost transportation volume and lost transportation capacity. In Figure 4, the horizontal axis is the elapsed time (days), and the vertical axis is the transportation volume of the entire transportation network. First, the maximum transportation capacity, which is the upper limit of the transportation volume that can be transported in the entire transportation network during normal times when no obstacles are occurring, is set for the transportation network. The transportation demand is set as an amount that does not exceed this maximum transportation capacity. Immediately after the disaster occurs, all rail links and nodes are out of function, so the expected handling volume, which is the transportation volume that can be transported in the entire transportation network, becomes 0 (zero). After that, as each rail link and node is restored, the expected handling volume, which is the transportation volume that can be transported on the normal transportation route in the entire transportation network, increases. In Figure 4, the change in the expected handling volume is shown by a dashed line. When this expected handling volume reaches the transportation demand, all of the transportation demand can be transported on the normal transportation route. This point is partial recovery. Note that in Figure 4, the transportation demand is the same on each day, but the same applies when it differs from day to day.

[0053] Lost transportation volume occurs when the actual handling forecast volume falls short of transportation demand, and is the daily cumulative value of the volume obtained by subtracting the actual handling forecast volume from the transportation demand during the period immediately after the disaster until partial recovery. It corresponds to the area of ​​the dotted hatched area in Figure 4. In other words, lost transportation volume is the residual transportation volume that is the remainder of the transportation demand that cannot be transported by the normal transportation route, and corresponds to the remainder of the transportation demand that cannot be transported by the actual handling forecast volume. Lost transportation capacity is the daily cumulative value of the volume obtained by subtracting the transportation demand from the transportation capacity of the entire transportation network during the period from partial recovery to complete recovery. It corresponds to the area of ​​the diagonally hatched area in Figure 4. In principle, the recovery plan proposal is created to maximize the transportation volume transported by the specified normal transportation route out of the transportation demand for each day, in other words, to minimize the transportation volume that is not transported by the specified normal transportation route.

[0054] Once the proposed recovery plan (proposed link recovery plan and proposed node recovery plan) has been created, a proposed transportation plan for transportation demand under the proposed recovery plan (proposed link recovery plan and proposed node recovery plan) is then created. Under the proposed recovery plan, the degree of recovery of each link and node varies from day to day, and therefore the transportation capacity of each link and node differs from day to day. For this reason, proposed transportation plans are created sequentially for each day (day d: d = 0, 1, , D) from the day the disaster occurred (day 0) to the day the entire transportation network is fully restored (day D). Note that the transportation demand is assumed to be the same on each day.

[0055] First, a detour transportation plan for the dth day is created (step S7) to detour the remaining transportation volume that cannot be transported on the normal transportation route when following the above-mentioned restoration plan, via a detour transportation route that is partially or entirely different from the normal transportation route. This detour transportation plan is calculated for the transportation network composed of railroad links and nodes, that is, the transportation network excluding road links.

[0056] Next, a substitute transportation plan for the dth day is created in which the remaining detouring volume, which is the remaining volume that is not detouring when following the detouring plan, is transported by substitute transportation routes that include road links in part or in whole (step S9). This substitute transportation plan is calculated for a transportation network consisting of rail links, road links, and nodes, that is, a transportation network (substitute transportation network) in which road links are added to the transportation network consisting of rail links and nodes used in calculating the detouring plan. Note that for each day, the remaining substitute transportation volume, which is the remaining volume of the remaining detouring volume that is not transported by substitute transportation, is stored at the source node and added to the remaining transportation volume for the next day (the remaining transportation volume that is not normally transported), or is lost.

[0057] The proposed transportation plan is created to maximize the transportation volume and also minimize the transportation cost. The transportation cost mainly includes costs determined according to the transportation route based on the transportation cost set for each link, as well as transshipment costs between rail links and road links at nodes during substitute transportation, storage costs, and loss costs, as will be described in detail later. The normal transportation route is a route from the departure node to the destination node, and is a route with the smallest transportation cost determined by the transportation cost of each link passed through. And since the detour transportation route is a route different from the normal transportation route with the smallest transportation cost, it necessarily has a higher transportation cost than the normal transportation route.

[0058] After the proposed transportation plan is calculated, the loss cost is then calculated (step S11). Specifically, the total of the detour loss, substitution loss, storage loss, and loss for each day (day d: d=0, 1, . . . , D) is calculated as the loss cost. The detour loss is the cost obtained by subtracting the normal transportation cost when the rail freight is normally transported from the detour transportation cost when the rail freight is detoured according to the proposed detour transportation plan. The substitution loss is the cost obtained by subtracting the normal transportation cost when the rail freight is normally transported from the substitution transportation cost when the rail freight is substitute transported according to the proposed substitution transportation plan. The storage loss is the storage cost when the rail freight is stored at a node according to the proposed substitution transportation plan. The loss loss is the loss cost when the rail freight is lost according to the proposed substitution transportation plan.

[0059] (D) Calculation of the proposed plan In this embodiment, each of these plans (link restoration plan, node restoration plan, detouring transportation plan, and substitute transportation plan) is calculated by formulating it as an optimization problem and solving it.

[0060] In formulating each plan, we will first explain the data (input data) that is determined in advance. First, a link that constitutes a transportation network is denoted as "link l", a passing direction of link l is denoted as "direction j", and a node is denoted as "node n". Link l includes rail links and road links. The universal set of links l is denoted as "all links", the universal set of rail links is denoted as "all rail links", the universal set of road links is denoted as "all road links", and the universal set of nodes is denoted as "all nodes". Furthermore, the day the disaster occurred is designated as day 0, and each day up to day D, when complete recovery is achieved, is denoted as "day d (d=0,1,...,D)". The universal set of days is denoted as "all days".

[0061] The transportation demand is given by rail freight item as the amount generated per day (normal transportation handling volume) for each normal transportation route from a given departure node to a given destination node.

[0062] 5 shows an example of the transport demand data 312 that defines the transport demand. The transport demand data 312 includes, for each cargo f, an item g, and a generation amount that is a normal transport handling amount per day.f and the normal transport route are defined in correspondence with each other. The generation volume is an integer in units of containers. The normal transport route is defined to consist of rail links only, and not to pass the same link multiple times in the same direction. The normal transport route is expressed as a sequence of numbers that list the nodes passed in order from the departure node to the destination node, and a set of the directions of passage. Note that rail freight is transported in one day, not across multiple days. The generation volume, which is the normal transport handling volume per day, is defined as f is set to be the same for each day, but may be set to be different for each individual day (day d).

[0063] Additionally, costs related to the transport of rail freight are determined as follows: the transport cost for passing through a link (transportation), the transhipment cost for transshipment at a node (changing the means of transport), the storage cost for storage at a node, and the loss penalty for loss. These costs are values ​​per unit of rail freight (per container, the same as the amount generated). The transport cost is determined as a value per unit length of the link for each transport mode (normal transport, detour transport, substitute transport) and each item. The transhipment cost, transport cost, and loss penalty are determined for each item of rail freight.

[0064] As data defining costs relating to railway freight transport, Fig. 6 shows an example of transport unit price setting data 314 that defines the transport unit price of a link, and Fig. 7 shows an example of transhipment unit price setting data 316 that defines costs relating to a node. The transport unit price setting data 314 defines, for each item g of railway freight, a transport mode and a transport unit price relating to passing (transporting) through a link in that transport mode in association with each item g of railway freight. The transhipment unit price setting data 316 defines, for each item g of railway freight, a transhipment unit price, a storage unit price, and a loss penalty in association with each item g of railway freight. Since loss of railway freight is an event that should be avoided, the loss penalty is set to a value greater than the storage unit price.

[0065] For railway links, the following constraints regarding restoration are set: the cumulative number of required personnel, which is the cumulative number of workers required to complete each inspection and restoration task, and the maximum number of workers that can be deployed, which is the upper limit of the number of workers that can be deployed per day for each task. For example, if the total number of inspection personnel deployed to a link on day d (the total number of inspection personnel deployed on each of days 0 to d) reaches the cumulative number of required inspection personnel, the link will enter an inspection completion state from the next day (day d+1).

[0066] Fig. 8 shows an example of link required personnel accumulated number data 320 that defines the required personnel accumulated number for a railway link, and Fig. 9 shows an example of link upper limit personnel deployment number data 322 that defines the upper limit personnel deployment number for a railway link. The link required personnel accumulated number data 320 defines, for each railway link l, the number of inspected personnel that is the accumulated number of inspection personnel required until the end of inspection work, and the required restoration personnel accumulated number that is the accumulated number of restoration personnel required until the end of restoration work, in association with each other. The required restoration personnel accumulated number is determined by the degree of restoration (temporary restoration / complete restoration), and includes the number of temporary restoration personnel required to achieve a temporary restoration state, and the number of restoration personnel required to achieve a restoration state.

[0067] The link maximum number of personnel to be deployed data 322 defines, for each railway link l, a maximum number of inspection personnel to be deployed, which is the upper limit of the number of inspection personnel that can be deployed per day, and a maximum number of restoration personnel to be deployed, which is the upper limit of the number of restoration personnel that can be deployed per day, in association with each other. It also defines a total maximum number of inspection personnel to be deployed, which is the upper limit of the number of inspection personnel that can be deployed to the entire transportation network per day, and a total maximum number of restoration personnel to be deployed, which is the upper limit of the number of restoration personnel that can be deployed to the entire transportation network per day.

[0068] In addition, the railway link has a transport capacity, which is the upper limit of the amount of freight (transportable) that can pass (transport) per day, as a transport constraint. The transport capacity is determined by direction (total of up, down, and up and down). By determining the transport capacity by direction, the single track or double track of the railway link can be expressed. For example, in the case of a single track, by making all the transport capacities for each direction the same, only the total transport capacity in the up and down directions (up and down transport capacity) has meaning as a constraint. In the case of a double track, the transport capacity in the up and down directions can be set as separate constraints by making the sum of the transport capacity in the up and down directions the total transport capacity in the up and down directions (up and down transport capacity). In addition, each transport capacity is determined according to the degree of restoration of the railway link (temporary restoration or complete restoration). However, the transport capacity in the non-functional state or the inspected state is set to 0 (zero). Naturally, the transport capacity in the fully restored state (normal time) is equal to or greater than the transport capacity in the provisional restoration state. There is no limit on the transport capacity for road links.

[0069] 10 shows an example of link transport capacity setting data 324 that defines the transport capacity of a railway link. The link transport capacity setting data 324 defines, for each railway link l, a transport capacity for each direction j and an up-down transport capacity, which is the total transport capacity in the up-down direction, in association with each other. The transport capacity is defined according to the degree of restoration (temporary restoration / full restoration) of the railway link l, and includes a provisional transport capacity, which is the transport capacity in the provisional restoration state, and a full transport capacity, which is the transport capacity in the restored state. The up-down transport capacity is similarly defined according to the degree of restoration (temporary restoration / full restoration) of the railway link l, and includes a provisional up-down transport capacity, which is the up-down transport capacity in the provisional restoration state, and a full up-down transport capacity, which is the up-down transport capacity in the full restoration state.

[0070] In addition, for each link, a constraint on transportation is set forth as to whether each item of rail freight can be transported (passed through) or not (passage permitted or not).

[0071] 11 shows an example of the passability setting data 326 that defines whether or not a link can be passed. The passability setting data 326 defines, for each link l, a rail freight item g and whether or not the rail freight item g can be transported (passable).

[0072] Like links, nodes have recovery constraints defined as follows: the cumulative number of workers required, which is the cumulative number of workers required to complete each inspection and recovery task, and the maximum number of workers available, which is the upper limit on the number of workers that can be assigned to each task per day.

[0073] Fig. 12 shows an example of node required personnel accumulated number data 330 that defines the required personnel accumulated number of a node, and Fig. 13 shows an example of node upper limit personnel deployment number data 332 that defines the upper limit personnel deployment number of a node. The node required personnel accumulated number data 330 defines, for each node n, the number of inspected personnel (required inspection personnel accumulated number), which is the accumulated number of inspection personnel required to complete inspection work, and the required restoration personnel accumulated number, which is the accumulated number of restoration personnel required to complete restoration work, in association with each node n. The required restoration personnel accumulated number is determined by the degree of restoration, and includes the number of temporary restoration personnel required to achieve a temporary restoration state, and the number of restoration personnel required to achieve a restoration state.

[0074] The node maximum number of personnel to be deployed data 332 defines, for each node n, an upper limit on the number of inspection personnel to be deployed, which is the upper limit on the number of inspection personnel that can be deployed per day, and an upper limit on the number of restoration personnel to be deployed, which is the upper limit on the number of restoration personnel that can be deployed per day, in association with each node n. It also defines an overall upper limit on the number of inspection personnel to be deployed, which is the upper limit on the number of inspection personnel that can be deployed to the entire transportation network per day, and an overall upper limit on the number of restoration personnel to be deployed, which is the upper limit on the number of restoration personnel that can be deployed to the entire transportation network per day.

[0075] In addition, a node is set with a transportation capacity, which is the upper limit of the amount of freight (transportation volume) that can depart and arrive per day, as a transportation constraint. The transportation capacity includes the departure transportation capacity, which is the upper limit of the amount of freight (transportation volume) that can depart, the arrival transportation capacity, which is the upper limit of the amount of freight (transportation volume) that can arrive, and the departure and arrival transportation capacity, which is the upper limit of the transportation capacity that can depart or arrive. The amount of freight that departs and arrives at a node means rail freight with the node as the departure node or arrival node of the normal transportation route, and does not include rail freight that passes through the node. Each transportation capacity (departure transportation capacity, arrival transportation capacity, departure and arrival transportation capacity) is determined for each transportation means (link type) of the departure or arrival link, and for the degree of recovery of the node (provisional recovery, complete recovery). However, the transportation capacity in the function-disabled state or inspection-completed state is set to 0 (zero). Naturally, the transportation capacity in the complete recovery state (normal time) is greater than the transportation capacity in the provisional recovery state.

[0076] FIG. 14 shows an example of node transport capacity setting data 334 that defines the transport capacity of a node. The node transport capacity setting data 334 defines, for each node n, the departure transport capacity (railway departure transport capacity), arrival transport capacity (railway arrival transport capacity), and departure / arrival transport capacity (railway departure / arrival transport capacity) for a rail link, and the departure transport capacity (road departure transport capacity), arrival transport capacity (road arrival transport capacity), and departure / arrival transport capacity (road departure / arrival transport capacity) for a road link in association with each other. Each transport capacity is defined according to the degree of restoration (temporary restoration / complete restoration). In other words, the departure transport capacity (railway departure transport capacity) for a rail link includes the departure transport capacity in a temporary restoration state, and the complete rail arrival transport capacity, which is the departure transport capacity in a complete restoration state. The arrival / departure transport capacity (railway arrival transport capacity) for a rail link includes the temporary rail arrival transport capacity, which is the arrival transport capacity in a temporary restoration state, and the complete rail arrival transport capacity, which is the arrival transport capacity in a complete restoration state. Arrival and departure transport capacity for railway links (rail arrival and departure transport capacity) includes temporary rail arrival and departure transport capacity, which is the arrival and departure transport capacity in a temporary restoration state, and complete rail arrival and departure transport capacity, which is the arrival and departure transport capacity in a fully restored state. Similarly, arrival transport capacity for roads (road arrival transport capacity) includes temporary road arrival transport capacity, which is the arrival transport capacity in a temporary restoration state, and complete road arrival transport capacity, which is the arrival transport capacity in a fully restored state. Arrival and departure transport capacity for road links (road arrival and departure transport capacity) includes temporary road arrival and departure transport capacity, which is the arrival and departure transport capacity in a temporary restoration state, and complete road arrival and departure transport capacity, which is the arrival and departure transport capacity in a fully restored state.

[0077] In addition, among the nodes, at junction nodes (junction bases) where it is possible to change the means of transportation between railway links and transport links (where railway freight can be transshipped), a transshipment capacity, which is the upper limit of the amount of freight (transportation volume) that can be transshipped per day due to the change in transport means (railway freight transshipment), is set as a transport constraint.

[0078] FIG. 15 shows an example of the transfer capacity setting data 336 that defines the transfer capacity of a node. The transfer capacity setting data 336 defines, for each node n, the transfer capacity from a road link to a rail link (road → rail transfer capacity) and the transfer capacity from a rail link to a road link (rail → road transfer capacity). The transfer capacity is defined according to the degree of restoration (temporary restoration / full restoration). However, the transfer capacity in a non-functional / inspected state is 0 (zero). Naturally, the transfer capacity in a fully restored state (normal times) is equal to or greater than the transfer capacity in a provisionally restored state.

[0079] In addition, a node has a storage capacity, which is the upper limit of the amount of cargo (transportation volume) that can be stored per day for rail freight from the node in question as a constraint on transportation. Rail freight that is not transported on behalf of another node and exceeds the storage capacity of the node is lost (returned to the shipper, etc.).

[0080] 16 shows an example of storage capacity setting data 338 that defines the storage capacity of a node. The storage capacity setting data 338 defines, for each node n, a railway freight item g and the storage capacity of the railway freight item g in association with each other. The storage capacity is determined according to the degree of restoration (provisional restoration / complete restoration).

[0081] (D1) Link Restoration Plan The optimization problem for calculating a link restoration plan can be formulated using the following equations (1) to (17). Equation (1) is the objective function, and equations (2) to (17) are constraints. Figure 17 shows a list of decision variables calculated by solving this optimization problem.

number

number

[0082] The first term of the objective function shown in formula (1) aims to minimize the lost transportation volume, and the second term aims to minimize the lost transportation capacity. If the link restoration plan proposal and the node restoration plan proposal are calculated only to minimize the lost transportation volume, a situation may occur where links and nodes not used in normal transportation are not restored. Even links and nodes not used in normal transportation need to be restored quickly because they may be used for future detour or substitute transportation. The complete restoration of these links and nodes not used in normal transportation contributes to improving the lost transportation capacity of the entire transportation network (see Figure 4). For this reason, the objective function is determined to minimize the lost transportation volume, while also taking into consideration the minimization of lost transportation capacity. However, in order to prioritize the minimization of the lost transportation volume, which corresponds to the first term, it is divided by a sufficiently large value Q so that the impact of the second term, which corresponds to the minimization of lost transportation capacity, on the objective function is sufficiently small. Link up / down transportation capacity in formula (1) l,d is the total transport capacity in the vertical direction of link l on day d, given by equation (1a).

[0083] Equations (2) to (8) are constraints on the number of inspection and restoration personnel deployed to railway link l. In other words, equations (2) and (4) are constraints on the number of inspection and restoration personnel deployed to each railway link l, and equations (3) and (5) are constraints on the number of inspection and restoration personnel deployed to the entire transportation network. Equation (6) indicates that restoration personnel cannot be deployed if the inspection work has not been completed. Equations (7) and (8) indicate that inspection and restoration personnel cannot be deployed after the inspection and restoration work has been completed. Due to the constraints of equations (3) and (5), a link restoration plan proposal is calculated so that the total number of inspection and restoration personnel, which is the amount of resources deployed to the affected links, which are the affected sections, on each day, is equal to or less than the given upper limit of the amount of resources deployed, which is the upper limit of the total number of inspection personnel deployed and the upper limit of the total number of restoration personnel deployed.

[0084] Equations (9) to (13) are constraints that represent the inspection and restoration states of railway links. In other words, equation (9) expresses the total number of inspection personnel, which is the cumulative number of inspection personnel deployed to railway link l. l,dWhen the number of inspected personnel reaches l, the railway link l is inspected. Similarly, equation (10) expresses the cumulative number of restoration personnel deployed to railway link l, l,d When the number of temporary restoration personnel reaches l, the railway link l can enter a temporary restoration state. Equation (11) expresses the cumulative number of restoration personnel deployed to railway link l, l,d When the number of fully restored personnel reaches l, the railway link l is fully restored. Equation (12) indicates that the railway link l is in a provisionally restored state after being in an inspected state. Equation (13) indicates that the railway link l is in a provisionally restored state after being in a fully restored state.

[0085] Equation (14) is a constraint on the normal transport volume of cargo f. That is, the normal transport volume, which is the normal transport volume of cargo f on the dth day, f,d is the daily generation volume of the cargo f determined by the transport demand f Indicates that it must be

[0086] Equations (15) and (16) are constraints that the traffic volume must be less than or equal to the transport capacity of each link. l,j,d is the transportation volume of railway link l in direction j on the dth day, and is given by equation (17). In other words, equation (15) shows that the total volume of cargo f passing through railway link l in direction j is the link transportation capacity of railway link l in direction j, l,d,j Moreover, equation (16) shows that the total amount of freight f passing through railway link l is equal to the total transport capacity in the up and down directions of railway link l, i.e., the link up and down transport capacity l,d This means that it must be the following:

[0087] By solving the optimization problem formulated as equations (1) to (17) and calculating the values ​​of the decision variables shown in Figure 17, a link restoration plan is calculated, and a normal transportation plan for normal transportation of rail freight under the link restoration plan is also calculated.

[0088] 18 is a diagram showing an example of link restoration plan proposal data 360, which is a calculated link restoration plan proposal. The link restoration plan proposal data 360 includes link inspection work plan proposal data 360a regarding the deployment of inspection personnel, and link restoration work plan proposal data 360b regarding the deployment of restoration personnel. The link inspection work plan proposal data 360a includes the number of inspection personnel for each railway link l on each day (day d), l,d and the total number of inspection personnel l,d And, inspected. l,d The link restoration work plan proposal data 360b stores the number of restoration personnel for each railway link l on each day (day d). l,d and the total number of recovery personnel l,d And temporary restoration l,d And complete recovery l,d The above are stored in correspondence with each other.

[0089] In addition, the link transport capacity, which is the transport capacity of each railway link on each day obtained in the process of calculating the link restoration plan proposal, l,j,d , Link up and down transport capacity f,d This will be carried over to the calculation of the node restoration plan later.

[0090] 19 is a diagram showing an example of link transportation capacity data 340, which is the transportation capacity of a railway link. The link transportation capacity data 340 is a link transportation capacity data for each railway link l in each direction j on each day (day d). l,j,d and the transport capacity of the link l,d The above are stored in correspondence with each other.

[0091] (D2) Node recovery plan proposal The optimization problem for calculating a node restoration plan can be formulated using the following equations (18) to (42). Equation (18) is the objective function, and equations (26) to (42) are constraints. Figure 20 shows a list of decision variables calculated by solving this optimization problem.

number

number

number

number

[0092] The first term of the objective function shown in equation (18) aims to minimize lost transport capacity, and the second term aims to minimize lost transport capacity. As with the calculation of the proposed link restoration plan mentioned above, the objective function is determined by minimizing lost transport volume and also taking into consideration the minimization of lost transport capacity, in order to quickly and completely restore nodes that are not normally used for transport. Also, in order to achieve rapid restoration of nodes, the second term, which corresponds to the minimization of lost transport capacity, takes into account the transport capacity for all rail links and road links as the transport capacity of the node. However, in order to prioritize the minimization of lost transport volume, which corresponds to the first term, it is divided by a sufficiently large value Q so that the impact of the second term, which corresponds to the minimization of lost transport capacity, on the objective function is sufficiently small. Railway departure and arrival transport capacity in equation (18) n,d is the transportation capacity of the railway link at node n on the dth day, given by equation (19). n,d is the arrival and departure capacity for the road link of node n on the dth day, given by equation (22).

[0093] The rail-link dispatch capacity of node n on the dth day is n,d , the iron transport capacity n,d Similarly, the transport capacity of the road link of node n on the dth day is given by (20) and (21), respectively. n,d , Hokkaido's transportation capacity n,d , the carrying capacity of the uniform n,d Similarly, , are given by the following equations (23) and (24), respectively.

[0094] Equations (25) to (31) are constraints on the number of inspection and restoration personnel to be deployed at node n, and are the same as equations (2) to (8) in the calculation of the link restoration plan proposal described above. In other words, equations (25) and (27) are constraints on the number of inspection and restoration personnel to be deployed at each node n, and equations (26) and (28) are constraints on the number of inspection and restoration personnel to be deployed throughout the entire transport network. Equation (29) indicates that restoration personnel cannot be deployed if the inspection work has not been completed. Equations (30) and (31) indicate that inspection and restoration personnel cannot be deployed after the inspection and restoration work has been completed. Due to the constraints of equations (26) and (28), the node restoration plan proposal is calculated so that the total number of inspection and restoration personnel, which is the amount of resources to be deployed at the affected node, which is the affected base, on each day, is equal to or less than the upper limit of the total number of inspection personnel to be deployed and the upper limit of the total number of restoration personnel to be deployed, which is the upper limit of the amount of resources to be deployed at a given base.

[0095] Equations (32) to (36) are constraints expressing the inspection status and restoration status of node n, and are similar to equations (9) to (13) in the calculation of the link restoration plan proposal described above.

[0096] Equation (37) is a constraint on the normal transport volume of rail freight. In other words, like equation (14) in the calculation of the link restoration plan proposal above, the normal transport volume of freight f on the dth day is f,d is the daily generation volume of the cargo f determined by the transport demand f This means that it must be the following:

[0097] Equations (38) and (39) are constraints that the traffic volume must be less than or equal to the transport capacity of link l. l,j,d , Link up and down transport capacity l,d is the value carried over from the calculation of the proposed link restoration plan described above (see Figure 19).

[0098] Equations (40) to (42) are constraints that the transportation volume must be less than or equal to the transportation capacity of node n (originating transportation capacity + destination transportation capacity + destination transportation capacity). In other words, equation (40) implies that the total volume of freight f departing from node n is less than or equal to the originating transportation capacity for the railway link of node n, which is the rail originating transportation capacity. n,dEquation (41) shows that the total amount of freight arriving at node n must be less than the rail transport capacity of the railway link at node n. n,d Equation (42) shows that the sum of the amount of freight f departing from or arriving at node n must be less than the rail transport capacity of the railway link of node n. n,d This means that it must be the following:

[0099] By solving the optimization problem formulated as equations (18) to (42) and calculating the values ​​of the decision variables shown in Figure 20, a node restoration plan is calculated, and a normal transportation plan for normal transportation of rail freight under the node restoration plan is also calculated.

[0100] 21 is a diagram showing an example of node restoration plan data 362, which is a calculated node restoration plan. The node restoration plan data 362 includes node inspection work plan data 362a regarding the deployment of inspection personnel, and node restoration work plan data 362b regarding the deployment of restoration personnel. The node inspection work plan data 362a includes the number of inspection personnel for each node n on each day (day d), n,d and the total number of inspection personnel n,d And, inspected. n,d The node recovery operation plan data 362b stores the number of recovery personnel for each node on each day (day d). n,d And the total number of recovery personnel n,d And temporary restoration n,d And complete recovery n,d The above are stored in correspondence with each other.

[0101] 22 is a diagram showing an example of normal transportation plan proposal data 364, which is a calculated normal transportation plan proposal. The normal transportation plan proposal data 364 includes a normal transport volume, which is a cargo volume normally transported on each day (day d), for each cargo f. f,d are stored in correspondence with each other.

[0102] In addition, the residual transport capacity of each link and node is calculated by calculating the normal transport plan. In other words, the residual transport capacity of each rail link that is not used for normal transport is carried over to the calculation of the subsequent detour transport plan as transport capacity that can be used for detour transport or substitute transport. In other words, the residual link transport capacity, which is the residual transport capacity in direction j on day d, is used as the residual transport capacity of rail link l. l,j,d , the remaining uplink and downlink capacity is the total remaining capacity in the uplink and downlink directions on the dth day. l,d are calculated using the following equations (43) and (44), respectively.

number

[0103] 23 is a diagram showing an example of link remaining transport capacity data 342, which is the remaining transport capacity of a railway link. The link remaining transport capacity data 342 is stored in each railway link l as the remaining link transport capacity in each direction j on each day (day d). l,j,d and the remaining link up / down transport capacity l,d The above are stored in correspondence with each other.

[0104] In addition, the remaining transportation capacity for the railway link of node n is the remaining dispatch capacity for the railway link on the nth day, n,d , the remaining rail arrival capacity for the rail link on the nth day n,d , the remaining rail capacity for the rail link on the nth day n,d are calculated using the following equations (45) to (47), respectively.

number

[0105] Since normal transportation only uses rail links, only the remaining transportation capacity for rail links is calculated. Transportation capacity for road links is calculated based on the degree of node restoration (provisional restoration / full restoration). In other words, the outgoing transportation capacity for the road link of node n on the dth day is calculated as the road outgoing transportation capacity n,d , the carrying capacity of the uniform n,d, the transportation capacity of the road n,d is determined according to the node transport capacity setting data 334 (see FIG. 14) depending on the degree of recovery (provisional recovery / complete recovery) of the node n on the dth day.

[0106] 24 is a diagram showing an example of node remaining transport capacity data 344, which is the remaining transport capacity of a node. The node remaining transport capacity data 344 is stored in each node n as the remaining rail-originating transport capacity on each day (day d). n,d and remaining iron transport capacity n,d And remaining rail transport capacity n,d And transportation capacity from Hokkaido n,d And the transportation capacity of the uniform n,d And transportation capacity to and from Hokkaido n,d The above are stored in correspondence with each other.

[0107] In addition, the remaining cargo volume that is not normally transported among the transport demands is subject to detouring. The remaining cargo volume that is not normally transported on the dth day of cargo f f,d is calculated using the following equation (48).

number

[0108] FIG. 25 is a diagram showing an example of remaining cargo volume data 346, which is the remaining cargo volume. The remaining cargo volume data 346 is the remaining cargo volume for each cargo f on each day (day d). f,d are stored in correspondence with each other.

[0109] In addition, the transshipment capacity and storage capacity of the node are determined according to the degree of recovery of the node. These values ​​are also carried over to the calculation of the subsequent detouring transportation plan proposal and substitute transportation plan proposal. In other words, as the transshipment capacity of the node, the transshipment capacity n,d of node n on the dth day from the road link to the rail link, and the transshipment capacity n,d of node n on the dth day from the rail link to the road link are determined according to the transshipment capacity setting data 336 (see FIG. 15). In addition, as the storage capacity of the node, the storage capacity n,d of node n on the dth day n,d is determined according to the storage capacity setting data 338 (see FIG. 16).

[0110] 26 is a diagram showing an example of the transshipment capacity data 348, which is the transshipment capacity of a node. The transshipment capacity data 348 is stored in each node n, and indicates the transshipment capacity from the road link to the railroad (road → railroad transshipment capacity) on each day (day d). n,d and the capacity to transfer cargo from rail to road (rail to road transfer capacity). n,d The above are stored in correspondence with each other.

[0111] 27 is a diagram showing an example of storage capacity data 350, which is the storage capacity of a node. The storage capacity data 350 is stored in each node n, and is the storage capacity of railroad freight, which is an item g, on each day (day d). n,d,g are stored in correspondence with each other.

[0112] (D3) Detour Transportation Plan The optimization problem for calculating the detouring transportation plan can be formulated using the following equations (49) to (63). Equation (49) is the objective function, and equations (52) to (63) are the constraints. Figure 28 shows a list of decision variables calculated by solving this optimization problem.

number

number

[0113] The first term of the objective function shown in equation (49) aims to maximize the amount of detour transportation (condition for maximizing the amount of detour transportation), and the second term aims to minimize the cost. Since the detour transportation route is a longer route than the normal transportation route, the cost of detour transportation (transportation cost) is higher than that of normal transportation. For this reason, the detour transportation plan is calculated to achieve the following: detour transportation of cargo that could not be normally transported as much as possible (maximization of detour transportation amount) and suppression of costs (minimization of costs). However, in order to prioritize maximization of the amount of detour transportation, which corresponds to the first term, it is divided by a sufficiently large value Q so that the effect of the second term, which corresponds to minimization of costs, on the objective function is sufficiently small. The cost of detour transportation of cargo f in equation (49) is given by equation (50), and the cost of normal transportation of cargo f is given by equation (51).

[0114] Equation (52) is a constraint on the volume of cargo transported. The volume of cargo that is detouring is equal to or less than the detouring volume, which is the volume of cargo that is subject to detouring. This detouring volume is the sum of the residual volume, which is the volume of cargo that was generated on the day but was not transported normally, and the storage volume, which is the volume of cargo that has been stored since the previous day. In other words, part or all of the detouring volume is detouring. Storage volume f,d-1 is the value carried over from the calculation of the substitute transportation plan proposal for the previous day (day d-1).

[0115] Equation (53) is a constraint that indicates whether cargo can pass through a link.

[0116] Equations (54) and (55) are constraints that the transportation volume must be less than or equal to the transportation capacity of link l. In other words, equation (54) implies that the total volume of freight f passing through railway link l in direction j is less than or equal to the remaining link transportation capacity, which is the transportation capacity of railway link l in direction j. l,d,j In addition, equation (55) shows that the total amount of freight f passing through railway link l is the total transport capacity in the up and down directions of the railway link l, i.e., the residual link up and down transport capacity. l,d This indicates that the following must be true:

[0117] Equations (56) to (58) are constraints that the transportation volume must be less than or equal to the transportation capacity of node n (residual iron outgoing transportation capacity + residual iron arrival transportation capacity + residual iron outgoing and arriving transportation capacity).

[0118] Equations (59) to (63) are constraints that represent the law of conservation of flow. The law of conservation of flow is a principle that states that at all nodes other than the cargo origin and destination nodes, the amount of cargo flowing into a node is the same as the amount of cargo flowing out of that node. This is because it is assumed that no cargo is generated or lost along the route.

[0119] The optimization problem formulated as in equations (49) to (63) is solved, and the values ​​of the decision variables shown in FIG. 28 are calculated, thereby calculating the detouring transportation plan proposal for the dth day.

[0120] 29 is a diagram showing an example of the detouring transportation plan proposal data 366. The detouring transportation plan proposal data 366 includes, for each cargo f, a detouring transportation amount of the cargo f on each day (day d), f,d and the amount of detouring traffic f,d The link detouring volume is the volume of cargo passing through each link l in each direction j. f,l,j,d The above are stored in correspondence with each other.

[0121] In addition, the remaining transport capacity of each link and node on day d is calculated. In other words, of the remaining transport capacity of each link and node on day d, the remaining transport capacity not used in the detouring transport, known as the detouring residual transport capacity, is carried over as transport capacity that can be used in substitute transport in the subsequent calculation of the substitute transport plan proposal on day d. Note that since detouring transport only uses railway links, only the transport capacity related to the railway links is carried over. Detouring residual link transport capacity, which is the remaining transport capacity not used in the detouring transport in direction j of railway link l on day d, is l,j,d is calculated by the following equation (64). The total remaining capacity in the up and down directions that was not used in the detouring transportation of railway link l on the dth day is detouring residual link up and down capacity, l,j,d is calculated using the following equation (65).

number

[0122] 30 is a diagram showing an example of link detouring remaining transport capacity data 352, which is the detouring remaining transport capacity of a railroad link. The link detouring remaining transport capacity data 352 is a detouring remaining link transport capacity for each railroad link l on each day (day d) in each direction j. l,j,d and the remaining detouring link uplink and downlink transport capacity l,d The above are stored in correspondence with each other.

[0123] Also, the remaining detouring capacity that was not used in the detouring transportation for the railway link of node n on the dth day is detouring residual railway capacity. n,d , the detouring residual iron arrival capacity, which is the arrival capacity n,d , Detour residual rail transport capacity, which is the transport capacity n,d are calculated using the following equations (66) to (68), respectively.

number

[0124] 31 is a diagram showing an example of node detouring remaining transportation capacity data 354, which is the detouring remaining transportation capacity of a node. The node detouring remaining transportation capacity data 354 is a detouring remaining transportation capacity of each node n on each day (dth day) n,d and the remaining detouring iron transport capacity n,d And the remaining detouring rail transport capacity n,d The above are stored in correspondence with each other.

[0125] In addition, the remaining cargo volume on day d that is not detouring, i.e., the remaining cargo volume on day d that is not detouring, is the target of substitute transportation on day d. The remaining cargo volume on day d that is not detouring, i.e., the detouring remaining cargo volume, is the remaining cargo volume on day d that is not detouring, i.e., the detouring remaining cargo volume f,d is calculated using the following equation (69).

number

[0126] 32 is a diagram showing an example of the detouring remaining cargo volume data 356, which is the detouring remaining cargo volume. The detouring remaining cargo volume data 356 is, for each cargo f, the detouring remaining cargo volume of the cargo f on each day (day d), f,dare stored in correspondence with each other.

[0127] (D4) Substitute transportation plan The optimization problem for calculating the alternative transportation schedule can be formulated using the following equations (70) to (101). Equation (70) is the objective function, and equations (74) to (101) are constraint conditions. Figure 33 shows a list of decision variables calculated by solving this optimization problem.

number

number

number

number

number

number

number

[0128] The first term of the objective function shown in formula (70) is intended to maximize the amount of substitute transportation (conditions for maximizing the amount of substitute transportation), and the second term is intended to minimize the cost. The substitute transportation plan is calculated to achieve the following: to substitute transportation of cargo that was not normally transported or detouring as much as possible (maximization of the amount of substitute transportation), to store cargo that was not even transported by substitute transportation as much as possible and transport it on the next day or later (maximization of storage amount), and to suppress costs (minimization of costs). However, in order to prioritize the maximization of the amount of substitute transportation, which corresponds to the first term, it is divided by a sufficiently large value Q so that the effect of the second term, which corresponds to minimizing costs, on the objective function is sufficiently small. The maximization of the amount of storage is achieved by minimizing costs by setting the loss penalty to a value larger than the unit cost of storage (see Figure 7). The cost of substitute transportation of cargo f in formula (70) is given by formula (71). Moreover, the storage cost and loss cost of cargo f are given by equations (72) and (73), respectively.

[0129] Equation (74) is a constraint on the transport volume, storage volume, and loss volume of cargo. The cargo subject to the calculation of the alternative transportation plan (i.e., the remaining detouring volume, which is the cargo that was not detouring under the above-mentioned detouring transportation plan) is either transported by alternative transportation, stored, or lost.

[0130] Equations (75) and (76) are constraints that express whether freight can pass through a link. That is, equation (75) is a constraint on rail links, and equation (76) is a constraint on road links. Since road links have no restrictions (unlimited) on transport capacity, the detouring residual freight volume is set as the logical upper limit of the substitute transport volume that can pass through the road link.

[0131] Equations (77) and (78) are constraints that the transport volume must be less than or equal to the transport capacity of the railway link. Equations (79) to (81) are constraints that the transport volume must be less than or equal to the transport capacity of the railway link at the node (railway origin transport capacity, railway arrival transport capacity, railway arrival origin transport capacity). Equations (82) to (84) are constraints that the transport volume must be less than or equal to the transport capacity of the road at the node (road origin transport capacity, road arrival transport capacity, road origin / destination transport capacity). Equation (85) is a constraint that the storage volume must be less than or equal to the storage capacity of the node. Equations (86) to (88) are constraints that express the law of conservation of flow.

[0132] Equations (89) to (99) are constraints that represent transhipment. The transhipment amount of cargo f at node n can be said to be the difference between the amount of cargo f entering node n via the rail link and the amount going out to the rail link. However, transhipment of cargo f does not occur at the departure and destination nodes of cargo f. Equations (95) to (99) are constraints that represent this. Equations (100) and (101) are constraints that the transhipment amount must be less than the transhipment capacity of the node.

[0133] The optimization problem formulated as in equations (70) to (101) is solved, and the values ​​of the decision variables shown in FIG. 33 are calculated, thereby calculating the substitute transportation plan for the dth day.

[0134] 34 is a diagram showing an example of the substitute transportation plan proposal data 368. The substitute transportation plan proposal data 368 includes, for each cargo f, a substitute transportation volume of the cargo f on each day (day d), f,d and the amount of transportation on behalf of the company f,d The link replacement transport volume is the amount of cargo passing through each link l in each direction j. f,l,j,d The amount of freight f transferred from the rail link to the road link at each node n on each day (day d) is stored in correspondence with the freight f. f,n,d and the amount of transshipment from road links to rail links. f,n,d and the storage volume, which is the amount of cargo stored at each node n. f,d and the disappearance amount, which is the amount of cargo that disappears at node n when node n is the source node. f,d The above are stored in correspondence with each other.

[0135] (E) Calculation of loss costs In the process of calculating the proposed transportation plan (proposed detouring transportation plan and proposed substitute transportation plan), the loss cost when transporting according to the proposed transportation plan can be calculated. The loss cost is calculated as the sum of the detouring loss, substitute loss, storage loss, and loss loss for each day (day d: d = 0, 1, , D) during the recovery period from the occurrence of the disaster to full recovery. The detouring loss on day d is the sum of the detouring transportation costs of all cargo on day d. The detouring transportation cost of cargo f on day d is calculated as the detouring transportation cost given by equation (50) minus the normal transportation cost given by equation (51). The substitute loss on day d is the sum of the substitute transportation costs of all cargo on day d. The substitute transportation cost of cargo f on day d is calculated as the substitute transportation cost given by equation (71) minus the normal transportation cost given by equation (51). The storage loss on day d is the sum of the storage costs of all cargo on day d. The storage cost of cargo f on day d is given by equation (72). The disposal loss on day d is the sum of the disappearance costs of all cargoes on day d. The disappearance cost of cargo f on day d is given by equation (73).

[0136] 35 shows an example of loss cost data 370, which is a loss cost. The loss cost data 370 stores, for each day (day d), a detouring loss, a proxy loss, a storage loss, and a disposal loss in association with each other, and also stores a loss cost that is the sum of these losses.

[0137] (F) Evaluation of proposed capital investment plans By using the loss costs calculated in this way, capital investment plans formulated for the transportation network can be evaluated from a cost perspective.

[0138] Specifically, a proposed capital investment plan is set that defines an investment target section which is an affected section for which the accumulated amount of required resources is to be reduced, an investment cost indicating a given reduction amount of the accumulated amount of required resources, an investment target base which is an affected base for which the accumulated amount of base required resources is to be reduced, and a base investment cost indicating a given reduction amount of the accumulated amount of base required resources. Then, a proposed recovery plan is calculated based on both before and after application of the proposed capital investment plan that reduces the accumulated amount of required resources in accordance with the set proposed capital investment plan, a proposed transportation plan is calculated based on the calculation results, and the proposed capital investment plan is evaluated using a comparison result obtained by comparing a predetermined cost based on the proposed transportation plan before and after application of the proposed capital investment plan and the investment cost.

[0139] In other words, among railway facilities such as stations as bases and tracks as transportation sections, transportation sections and bases that are the targets of capital investment that reduces the amount of required resources and the amount of required resources at bases that should be put in for recovery by reducing the disruption caused by the disaster are determined, and a capital investment plan is set that specifies the investment costs required for implementing the capital investment. Then, a recovery plan and a transportation plan are calculated for each of the cases where the capital investment plan is not applied to the transportation network and where the capital investment plan is applied. When capital investment is implemented, the amount of required resources and the amount of required resources at bases are reduced compared to the case where it is not implemented, and therefore the recovery of the affected sections and bases is accelerated. The rapid recovery of the affected sections and bases increases the amount of freight that is normally transported among the transportation demand, which inevitably reduces the amount of freight that is detouring or being transported by substitute, and the cost of detouring and substitute transportation is reduced. The cost of detouring and substitute transportation is a cost that would not occur if a disaster did not occur, that is, a loss cost. By implementing capital investment, this loss cost can be reduced. Therefore, the total cost is the sum of the investment cost of the capital investment set out in the capital investment plan and the loss cost when the capital investment is implemented, and by comparing the total costs for the cases where the capital investment plan is applied and where it is not applied, the capital investment plan can be evaluated from the perspective of cost.

[0140] Furthermore, as the loss cost in the case where the proposed capital investment plan is applied, multiple disasters with different disaster scales and occurrence probabilities may be assumed, and the expected value of the loss cost calculated from the loss cost when each of these multiple disasters is assumed to occur may be used. An example of multiple assumed disasters is shown in Figure 36. The expected value of the loss cost is calculated, for example, by the following formula (102).

number

[0141] [Function configuration] Fig. 37 shows an example of the functional configuration of the recovery and transportation plan creation device 1. According to Fig. 37, the recovery and transportation plan creation device 1 is configured to include an operation unit 102, a display unit 104, a sound output unit 106, a communication unit 108, a processing unit 200, and a storage unit 300, and is realized as a type of computer system. Note that the recovery and transportation plan creation device 1 may be realized by one computer, or may be configured by connecting a plurality of computers.

[0142] The operation unit 102 is realized by an input device such as a keyboard, a mouse, a touch panel, various switches, etc., and outputs an operation signal according to the operation performed to the processing unit 200. The display unit 104 is realized by a display device such as a liquid crystal display or a touch panel, etc., and performs various displays based on a display signal from the processing unit 200. The sound output unit 106 is realized by a sound output device such as a speaker, etc., and performs various sound outputs based on a sound signal from the processing unit 200. The communication unit 108 is a communication device realized by, for example, a wireless communication module, a router, a modem, a jack of a wired communication cable, a control circuit, etc., and connects to a given communication network to perform data communication with an external device.

[0143] The processing unit 200 is a processor realized by an arithmetic device or arithmetic circuit such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit) or an FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Array), and performs overall control of the recovery / transportation plan proposal creation device 1 based on programs and data stored in the storage unit 300, input data from the operation unit 102 and the communication unit 108, and the like. The processing unit 200 also has a transport demand setting unit 202, a recovery plan proposal calculation unit 204, and a transport plan proposal calculation unit 210 as functional processing blocks. Each of these functional units possessed by the processing unit 200 can be realized in software form by the processing unit 200 executing a program, or can be realized by a dedicated arithmetic circuit. In this embodiment, the former software realization will be described.

[0144] The processing unit 200 executes processing in accordance with the recovery and transportation plan creation program 302 to create a recovery and transportation plan in the event that multiple transportation sections in a transportation network, which is a collection of transportation sections connected between base stations by specified transportation means, become affected.

[0145] For each affected section, a required resource accumulation amount indicating the accumulation amount of recovery resources required to reach the corresponding recovery degree and an upper limit of the transportation volume per day that can be transported at the corresponding recovery degree are defined for each recovery degree. The required resource amount is defined as link required personnel accumulation number data 320 (see FIG. 8), and the upper limit of the transportation volume is defined as link transport capacity setting data 324 (see FIG. 10).

[0146] Furthermore, for each of the bases, a base required resource accumulated amount, which indicates the accumulated amount of resources required to reach the corresponding recovery level, and an upper limit of the transportation volume that can be departed from and arrived at the corresponding affected base at the corresponding recovery level, are defined for each of the bases. The base required resource amount is defined as node required personnel accumulated number data 330 (see FIG. 12), and the upper limit of the transportation volume is defined as node transport capacity setting data 334 (see FIG. 14).

[0147] The transportation demand setting unit 202 sets the normal transportation handling volume for each day for each normal transportation route from a given departure point to a given destination point as the transportation demand. The set transportation demand is stored as transportation demand data 312. In this embodiment, the normal transportation handling volume for each day is the same, but it may be set to be different for each day.

[0148] The recovery plan proposal calculation unit 204 calculates a recovery plan proposal so that the total amount of resources to be input to the affected sections on each day is equal to or less than a given upper limit of input resource amount. Specifically, for each day, the recovery plan proposal is calculated by 1) determining the degree of recovery of each affected section, 2) calculating the expected amount of handling performance when the transportation demand is applied based on the upper limit of transportation volume corresponding to the degree of recovery, and 3) calculating the remaining transportation volume which is the remainder that cannot transport the transportation demand with the expected amount of handling performance. In addition, the recovery plan proposal is calculated so that the total amount of resources to be input to the affected base on each day is equal to or less than the upper limit of resource input to the base. In addition, the calculation of the expected amount of handling performance in 2) when the transportation demand is applied to the transportation network is performed based on the upper limit of departure and arrival transportation volume corresponding to the degree of recovery of each affected base and the upper limit of transportation volume corresponding to the degree of recovery of each affected section. The upper limit of input resource amount is determined as the link upper limit of personnel input data 322 (see FIG. 9).

[0149] The recovery plan proposal calculation unit 204 also has a base input upper limit resource amount setting unit 206. The base input upper limit resource amount setting unit 206 sets a base input upper limit resource amount per day for the affected base. The set base input upper limit resource amount is stored as node upper limit input personnel number data 332 (see FIG. 13).

[0150] Specifically, the restoration plan proposal calculation unit 204 calculates a link restoration plan proposal by solving an optimization problem formulated as shown in equations (1) to (17). By solving the optimization problem, the decision variables shown in Fig. 17 are calculated. As a result of the calculation, link restoration plan proposal data 360 (see Fig. 18) indicating the link restoration plan proposal is generated. At the same time, link transport capacity data 340 (see Fig. 19) is generated as data to be handed over to the subsequent calculation of a node restoration plan proposal.

[0151] Moreover, a node restoration plan proposal is calculated by solving the optimization problem formulated as shown in equations (18) to (42). By solving the optimization problem, the decision variables shown in FIG. 20 are calculated. As a result of the calculation, node restoration plan proposal data 362 (see FIG. 21) indicating the node restoration plan proposal is generated. At the same time, link remaining transport capacity data 342 (see FIG. 23), node remaining transport capacity data 344 (see FIG. 24), remaining cargo volume data 346 (see FIG. 25), transhipment capacity data 348 (see FIG. 26), and storage capacity data 350 (see FIG. 27) are generated as data to be handed over to the subsequent calculation of the detouring transportation plan proposal and the substitute transportation plan proposal.

[0152] The transportation plan proposal calculation unit 210 calculates a transportation plan proposal based on the calculation result for each day by the restoration plan proposal calculation unit 204. In addition, the transportation plan proposal calculation unit 210 has a detour transportation plan proposal calculation unit 212, an alternative transportation network setting unit 214, and an alternative transportation plan proposal calculation unit 216.

[0153] The detour transportation plan calculation unit 212 calculates, as one of the transportation plan proposals, a detour transportation plan proposal for detouring the remaining transportation volume on a detour transportation route in the transportation network that is partially or entirely different from the normal transportation route for each day. The detour transportation plan proposal is calculated so as to satisfy a predetermined detour transportation volume maximization condition by using a surplus transportable volume in which the upper transport volume limit according to the restoration degree of each affected section exceeds the handling performance forecast volume. A transport unit price is set for each transportation section, and the detour transportation plan calculation unit 212 calculates the detour transportation plan proposal based on the transport cost related to the detour transportation based on the transport unit price. The transport unit price is set as the transport unit price setting data 314 (see FIG. 6). The detour transportation plan proposal is calculated based on the remaining transport volume after the storage transport volume calculation unit 218 adds the detour transportation volume.

[0154] Specifically, the detouring transportation plan proposal calculation unit 212 calculates a detouring transportation plan proposal by solving an optimization problem formulated as shown in equations (49) to (63). By solving the optimization problem, the decision variables shown in FIG. 28 are calculated. As a result of the calculation, detouring transportation plan proposal data 366 (see FIG. 29) indicating the detouring transportation plan proposal is generated. At the same time, link detouring remaining transportation capacity data 352 (see FIG. 30), node detouring remaining transportation capacity data 354 (see FIG. 31), and detouring remaining cargo volume data 356 (see FIG. 32) are generated as data to be handed over to the subsequent calculation of the substitute transportation plan proposal.

[0155] The substitute transport network setting unit 214 sets an alternative transport network in which a part or all of the transport section is an alternative transport section by an alternative transport means. In addition, it further sets the unit price of the alternative transport by the alternative transport means and the transshipment cost at the node where transshipment between the transport means and the alternative transport means is possible. The set substitute transport unit price is stored as transport unit price setting data 314 (see FIG. 6), and the transshipment cost is stored as transshipment unit price setting data 316 (see FIG. 7).

[0156] The substitute transportation plan calculation unit 216 calculates, as one of the transportation plan proposals, a substitute transportation plan for transporting the detour remaining transportation amount, which is the remainder of the remaining transportation amount that cannot be transported by the detour transportation of the detour transportation plan proposal, through the substitute transportation network. The substitute transportation plan proposal is calculated so as to satisfy a predetermined substitute transportation amount maximization condition. The substitute transportation plan proposal is calculated based on the substitute transportation unit price and the transshipment cost. Furthermore, for the obstruction node bases, which are node bases where transshipment between the transportation means and the substitute transportation means is possible among the obstruction bases, a transshipment transportation amount upper limit according to the degree of recovery is set, and the substitute transportation plan calculation unit 216 calculates the substitute transportation plan proposal so that the transshipment transportation amount, which is the transportation amount via the obstruction node base, is equal to or less than the transshipment transportation amount upper limit set according to the degree of recovery. The transshipment transportation amount upper limit is set as the transshipment capacity setting data 336 (see FIG. 15).

[0157] The substitute transportation plan calculation unit 216 also has a storage transportation volume calculation unit 218. The storage transportation volume calculation unit 218 adds the transportation volume that was not transported by substitute transportation according to the substitute transportation plan to the remaining transportation volume for the next day. However, if the transportation volume exceeds the storage capacity of the source node when adding it to the remaining transportation volume for the next day, the excess transportation volume cannot be added and is therefore lost (returned to the shipper, etc.).

[0158] Specifically, the substitute transportation plan calculation unit 216 calculates the substitute transportation plan by solving the optimization problem formulated as shown in equations (70) to (101). By solving the optimization problem, the decision variables shown in Fig. 33 are calculated. As a result of the calculation, substitute transportation plan data 368 (see Fig. 34) indicating the substitute transportation plan is generated.

[0159] The memory unit 300 is realized by an IC (Integrated Circuit) memory such as a ROM (Read Only Memory) or a RAM (Random Access Memory) or a storage device such as a hard disk, and stores programs, data, etc. that the processing unit 200 uses to comprehensively control the recovery and transportation plan creation device 1. The memory unit 300 is also used as a working area for the processing unit 200, and temporarily stores the results of calculations performed by the processing unit 200 and input data from the operation unit 102 and communication unit 108, etc. In this embodiment, as shown in FIG. 38, the storage unit 300 stores a recovery and transportation plan creation program 302, transportation network data 310, transportation demand data 312, transportation unit price setting data 314, transshipment unit price setting data 316, link required personnel integrated number data 320, link upper limit personnel input number data 322, link transport capacity setting data 324, passability setting data 326, node required personnel integrated number data 330, node upper limit personnel input number data 332, node transport capacity setting data 334, transshipment capacity setting data 336, storage capacity setting data 338, and storage capacity setting data 339. The system stores force setting data 338, link transport capacity data 340, link remaining transport capacity data 342, node remaining transport capacity data 344, remaining cargo volume data 346, transhipment capacity data 348, storage capacity data 350, link detour remaining transport capacity data 352, node detour remaining transport capacity data 354, detour remaining cargo volume data 356, link restoration plan proposal data 360, node restoration plan proposal data 362, normal transportation plan proposal data 364, detour transportation plan proposal data 366, substitute transportation plan proposal data 368, and loss cost data 370.

[0160] The transportation network data 310 is data that defines the configuration of a transportation network, which is a collection of bases that are nodes and transportation sections that are links connecting the bases.

[0161] [Effects] In this way, according to the present embodiment, it is possible to appropriately create a recovery plan proposal and a transportation plan proposal for a transportation network. In other words, an appropriate recovery plan proposal can be created so that the total amount of resources to be input to the affected sections and affected bases on each day is equal to or less than the given upper limit of resource input amount and base upper limit of resource input amount, and an appropriate transportation plan proposal under the recovery plan proposal can be created. In particular, in creating the transportation plan proposal, for each day, the handling performance forecast volume when the transportation demand based on the transportation volume upper limit according to the recovery degree of each affected section and each affected base is applied, and the residual transportation volume, which is the remainder that cannot transport the transportation demand with the handling performance forecast volume, is calculated. Then, the transportation plan proposal is calculated based on the handling performance forecast volume and the residual transportation volume for each day. As the transportation plan proposal, a detour transportation plan proposal and a substitute transportation plan proposal are calculated. The detour transportation plan proposal is a transportation plan proposal in which the residual transportation volume is transported by a detour transportation route that is partially or entirely different from the normal transportation route. The substitute transportation plan is a transportation plan in which the detouring remaining transportation volume, which is the remainder of the remaining transportation volume that cannot be transported by the detouring transportation, is transported through a substitute transportation network in which part or all of the transportation section is a road link that is a substitute transportation section by a substitute transportation means.

[0162] [Variations] Incidentally, the applicable embodiments of the present invention are not limited to the above-described embodiments, and can of course be modified as appropriate without departing from the spirit of the present invention.

[0163] (A) Transportation Network In the above embodiment, the transportation network is a railroad network, but the present invention is equally applicable to other transportation networks, such as a highway.

[0164] (B) Problem links and nodes In the above embodiment, all rail links and nodes are put into a functional stop state when a disaster occurs, but some rail links and nodes may be put into a functional stop state depending on the extent of the disaster's impact, etc. Also, the timing at which the functions are stopped may be varied depending on the timing of the disaster occurrence, etc.

[0165] (C) Recovery abandonment flag In addition, a restoration abandonment flag may be set for railway links and nodes (disturbed links and nodes) that have become disabled due to a disaster, so that inspection and restoration personnel will not be deployed. Affected links and nodes for which the restoration abandonment flag has been set will be left in a disabled state (will not be restored).

[0166] (D) First day that inspection and restoration personnel can be deployed In addition, the first day when inspection and restoration personnel can be deployed may be set for the railway link and node. [Explanation of symbols]

[0167] 1...Restoration and transportation plan creation device 200... Processing section 202…Transportation demand setting department 204…Restoration Plan Calculation Department 206...base input upper limit resource amount setting unit 210…Transportation Planning Calculation Department 212…Detour Transportation Plan Calculation Department 214…Transportation Agency Network Setting Department 216…Transportation Plan Calculation Department 218…Storage and Transportation Volume Calculation Department 300...Storage section 302…Recovery and transportation planning program 310...Transportation network data 312...Transportation demand data 314...Transportation unit price setting data 316...Transshipment unit price setting data 320…Link required personnel cumulative data 322…Link maximum number of personnel data 324...Link transport capacity setting data 326...Passing / non-passing setting data 330…Data on accumulated number of required nodes 332…Node upper limit number of personnel data 334…Node transport capacity setting data 336...Transshipment capacity setting data 338...Storage capacity setting data 340...Link transport capacity data 342...Link remaining capacity data 344…Node remaining capacity data 346…Remaining cargo volume data 348...Transshipment capacity data 350…Storage capacity data 352...Link Detour Remaining Capacity Data 354…Node detouring remaining transport capacity data 356… Data on remaining cargo volume detouring 360…Link Restoration Plan Proposal Data 362…Node recovery plan data 364...Normal transport plan data 366…Detour transportation plan proposal data 368…Substitute transportation plan data 370...Loss Cost Data

Claims

1. A recovery and transportation plan creation device that creates a recovery and transportation plan when a plurality of transportation sections become affected in a transportation network, which is a collection of transportation sections by a predetermined transportation means connecting base stations, comprising: For each affected section, a required resource accumulation amount indicating the accumulation amount of recovery resources (hereinafter, the recovery resources are referred to as "resources") required to reach the corresponding recovery level and an upper limit of the transportation volume per day that can be transported at the corresponding recovery level are set, A transportation demand setting means for setting a normal transportation handling volume for each day for each normal transportation route from a given departure point to a given destination point as a transportation demand; a recovery plan proposal calculation means for calculating a recovery plan proposal so that the total amount of resources to be input to the affected sections for each day is equal to or less than a given upper limit of input resource amount, the recovery plan proposal calculation means calculating the recovery plan proposal by performing the following steps for each day: 1) determining the degree of recovery of each affected section; 2) calculating a predicted handling record amount when the transportation demand is applied based on the upper limit of transportation volume corresponding to the degree of recovery; and 3) calculating a remaining transportation volume that is the remainder that cannot be transported to the transportation demand with the predicted handling record amount; a transportation plan calculation means for calculating a transportation plan proposal based on the calculation result for each day by the recovery plan calculation means; Equipped with The transportation plan calculation means includes: a detour transportation plan calculation means for calculating, for each day, a detour transportation plan in which the remaining transportation volume is detouring via a detour transportation route in the transportation network that is partially or entirely different from the normal transportation route, as one of the transportation plan proposals; An alternative transport network setting means for setting an alternative transport network in which a part or all of the transport section is an alternative transport section by an alternative transport means; a substitute transportation plan calculation means for calculating, for each day, a substitute transportation plan for transporting a detouring remaining transportation volume, which is a remainder of the remaining transportation volume that cannot be transported by the detouring transportation of the detouring transportation plan, through the substitute transportation network, as one of the transportation plan proposals; having Recovery and transportation planning device.

2. The detouring transportation plan calculation means calculates the detouring transportation plan that satisfies a predetermined detouring transportation volume maximization condition by using a surplus transportable volume in which the transport volume upper limit according to the restoration degree of each affected section exceeds the handling performance predicted volume. The restoration and transportation plan creation device according to claim 1 .

3. A transportation cost is set for each transportation section. The detour transportation plan calculation means calculates the detour transportation plan based on a transportation cost related to the detour transportation based on the transportation unit price. The restoration and transportation plan creation device according to claim 1 or 2.

4. The substitute transportation plan calculation means calculates the substitute transportation plan that satisfies a predetermined substitute transportation volume maximization condition. The restoration and transportation plan creation device according to any one of claims 1 to 3.

5. The substitute transportation network setting means further sets a substitute transportation unit price by the substitute transportation means and a transshipment cost at a node where transshipment between the transportation means and the substitute transportation means is possible; the substitute transportation plan calculation means calculates the substitute transportation plan based on the substitute transportation unit price and the transshipment cost; The restoration and transportation plan creation device according to any one of claims 1 to 4.

6. a storage transportation volume calculation means for adding a transportation volume that has not been transported by proxy according to the proposed substitute transportation plan to the remaining transportation volume for the next day; Further comprising: the detour transportation plan proposal calculation means calculates the detour transportation plan proposal based on the remaining transportation volume after the addition by the storage transportation volume calculation means. The restoration and transportation plan creation device according to any one of claims 1 to 5.

7. Among the bases, for each of the affected bases, a base required resource accumulated amount indicating an accumulated amount of resources required to reach the affected base for each recovery level and an upper limit of the transportation volume that can be departed from and arrived at the affected base at the recovery level are defined; a base input upper limit resource amount setting means for setting a base input upper limit resource amount per day for the affected base; Further comprising: the recovery plan calculation means calculates a site recovery plan related to resource input to the affected site so that a total amount of resources to be input to the affected site for each day is equal to or less than the site input upper limit resource amount; The restoration and transportation plan creation device according to any one of claims 1 to 6.

8. Among the disruption bases, for disruption bases that are bases where transshipment between the transport means and the substitute transport means is possible, an upper limit of the transshipment transportation volume according to the degree of recovery is set, The substitute transportation plan calculation means calculates the substitute transportation plan so that a transshipment transportation volume, which is a transportation volume passing through the disruption node, is equal to or less than the transshipment transportation volume upper limit determined according to the degree of recovery. The restoration and transportation plan creation device according to claim 7.

9. The recovery plan calculation means calculates the expected handling volume of 2) when the transportation demand is applied to the transportation network based on the upper limit of the departure and arrival transportation volume corresponding to the recovery degree of each affected base and the upper limit of the transportation volume corresponding to the recovery degree of each affected section. The restoration and transportation plan creation device according to claim 7 or 8.

10. an investment plan setting means for setting an investment plan that defines an investment target section, which is the obstacle section that is the target for reducing the required resource integrated amount, and an investment cost that indicates a given reduction amount of the required resource integrated amount; an investment plan proposal evaluation control means for causing the recovery plan proposal calculation means to create the recovery plan proposal based on before and after application of the investment plan proposal that reduces the required resource integrated amount in accordance with the investment plan proposal set by the investment plan proposal setting means, and causing the transportation plan proposal calculation means to calculate the transportation plan proposal based on the calculation result of the recovery plan proposal calculation means, and evaluating the investment plan proposal using a comparison result of a predetermined cost based on the transportation plan proposal before and after application of the investment plan proposal and the investment cost; The recovery and transportation plan creation device according to any one of claims 1 to 9, comprising:

11. an investment plan setting means for setting an investment plan that defines an investment target section, which is the obstacle section that is the target for reducing the required resource integrated amount, an investment cost indicating a given reduction amount of the required resource integrated amount, an investment target base, which is the obstacle base that is the target for reducing the base required resource integrated amount, and a base investment cost indicating the given reduction amount of the base required resource integrated amount; an investment plan proposal evaluation control means for causing the recovery plan proposal calculation means to create the recovery plan proposal based on both before and after application of the investment plan proposal which reduces the required resource accumulated amount and the base required resource accumulated amount in accordance with the investment plan proposal set by the investment plan proposal setting means, and causing the transportation plan proposal calculation means to calculate the transportation plan proposal based on a calculation result of the recovery plan proposal calculation means, and for evaluating the investment plan proposal using a comparison result of a predetermined cost based on the transportation plan proposal before and after application of the investment plan proposal, the investment cost, and the base investment cost; The restoration and transportation plan creation device according to any one of claims 7 to 9, comprising:

12. A recovery and transportation plan creation device that creates a recovery and transportation plan when a plurality of transportation sections become affected in a transportation network, which is a collection of transportation sections by a predetermined transportation means connecting base stations, comprising: For each affected section, a required resource accumulation amount indicating the accumulation amount of recovery resources (hereinafter, the recovery resources are referred to as "resources") required to reach the corresponding recovery level and an upper limit of the transportation volume per day that can be transported at the corresponding recovery level are set, A transportation demand setting means for setting a normal transportation handling volume for each day for each normal transportation route from a given departure point to a given destination point as a transportation demand; a recovery plan proposal calculation means for calculating a recovery plan proposal so that the total amount of resources to be input to the affected sections for each day is equal to or less than a given upper limit of input resource amount, the recovery plan proposal calculation means calculating the recovery plan proposal by: 1) determining the degree of recovery of each affected section; 2) calculating a predicted handling performance amount when the transportation demand is applied based on the upper transportation volume limit corresponding to the degree of recovery; and 3) calculating a residual transportation volume which is a remainder of the predicted handling performance amount with respect to the transportation demand; a transportation plan calculation means for calculating a transportation plan proposal based on the calculation result for each day by the recovery plan calculation means; Equipped with The transportation plan calculation means includes: a detour transportation plan calculation means for calculating a detour transportation plan for each day in which the remaining transportation volume is detouring via a detouring route on the transportation network which is partially or entirely different from the normal transportation route, the detour transportation plan calculation means calculating, as one of the transportation plan proposals, the detour transportation plan proposal which satisfies a predetermined detouring transportation volume maximization condition by using an excess transportable volume in which the transportation volume upper limit according to the restoration degree of each affected section exceeds the handling performance forecast volume; having Recovery and transportation planning device.

13. A method for creating a recovery and transportation plan for a computer system that creates a recovery and transportation plan when a plurality of transportation sections in a transportation network, which is a collection of transportation sections by a predetermined transportation means connecting base stations, become affected, comprising the steps of: For each affected section, a required resource accumulation amount indicating the accumulation amount of recovery resources (hereinafter, the recovery resources are referred to as "resources") required to reach the corresponding recovery level and an upper limit of the transportation volume per day that can be transported at the corresponding recovery level are set, A transportation demand setting step of setting a normal transportation handling volume for each day for each normal transportation route from a given departure point to a given destination point as a transportation demand; a recovery plan calculation step of calculating a recovery plan so that the total amount of resources to be input to the affected sections for each day is equal to or less than a given upper limit of input resource amount, the recovery plan calculation step calculating the recovery plan for each day by: 1) determining the degree of recovery of each affected section; 2) calculating a predicted handling record amount when the transportation demand is applied based on the upper limit of transportation volume corresponding to the degree of recovery; and 3) calculating a residual transportation volume that is the remainder that cannot be transported with the predicted handling record amount to transport the transportation demand; a detour transportation plan calculation step of calculating, for each day, a detour transportation plan for detouring the remaining transportation volume via a detour transportation route in the transportation network that is partially or entirely different from the normal transportation route, as one of the transportation plan proposals; An alternative transportation network setting step of setting an alternative transportation network in which a part or all of the transportation section is an alternative transportation section by an alternative transportation means; a substitute transportation plan calculation step of calculating, for each day, a substitute transportation plan for transporting a detouring remaining transportation amount, which is a remainder of the remaining transportation amount that cannot be transported by the detouring transportation of the detouring transportation plan, through the substitute transportation network as one of the transportation plan plans; How to prepare a recovery and transportation plan, including:

14. A method for creating a recovery and transportation plan for a computer system that creates a recovery and transportation plan when a plurality of transportation sections in a transportation network, which is a collection of transportation sections by a predetermined transportation means connecting base stations, become affected, comprising the steps of: For each affected section, a required resource accumulation amount indicating the accumulation amount of recovery resources (hereinafter, the recovery resources are referred to as "resources") required to reach the corresponding recovery level and an upper limit of the transportation volume per day that can be transported at the corresponding recovery level are set, A transportation demand setting step of setting a normal transportation handling volume for each day for each normal transportation route from a given departure point to a given destination point as a transportation demand; a recovery plan calculation step of calculating a recovery plan so that the total amount of resources to be input to the affected sections for each day is equal to or less than a given upper limit of input resource amount, the recovery plan calculation step calculating the recovery plan for each day by: 1) determining the degree of recovery of each affected section; 2) calculating a predicted handling performance amount when the transportation demand is applied based on the upper transportation volume limit corresponding to the degree of recovery; and 3) calculating a residual transportation volume which is a remainder of the predicted handling performance amount with respect to the transportation demand; a detour transportation plan calculation step for calculating a detour transportation plan for each day in which the remaining transportation volume is detouring via a detour transportation route in the transportation network that is partially or entirely different from the normal transportation route, in which the detour transportation plan is calculated as one of the transportation plan proposals by using a surplus transportable volume in which the transportation volume upper limit according to the restoration degree of each affected section exceeds the handling performance forecast volume; How to prepare a recovery and transportation plan, including:

Images