Apparatus, method and program

Abstract

To provide a shelter information providing system and method capable of dynamically coping with an evacuation state.SOLUTION: A shelter information providing system 100 capable of dynamically coping with an evacuation state includes: means for calculating an estimated movement time at which unevacuated persons reach a shelter in each mesh area on the basis of mesh area information including positions of base stations, a mesh area of each base station and positions of shelters, the estimated number of unevacuated persons within the mesh area, and the calculated number of remaining persons allowed to be accommodated in each shelter; and means for allocating the number of unevacuated persons to the shelter in ascending order of the estimated movement time on the basis of the number of remaining persons allowed to be accommodated in each shelter and the estimated movement time, and allocating the number of unevacuated persons within a mesh area in descending order of difference in estimated movement time to the shelter so that the total sum of estimated movement times becomes small, thereby generating shelter information according to the lapse of time.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

[Technical Field]

[0001] The present invention provides Device, method and programs Regarding this, for example, we estimate the transition in the number of people that can be accommodated, taking into account that the areas in which each evacuation shelter can be used change depending on the disaster situation, and recommend evacuation shelters to head to from each area. a device for providing evacuation shelter information to a communication terminal; method and programs Regarding. [Background technology]

[0002] Patent Document 1 describes an evacuation guidance system that, in the event of a disaster, can suggest appropriate evacuation destinations to evacuees in consideration of the current situation at evacuation shelters.

[0003] Patent Document 2 describes an evacuation guidance information providing device that provides evacuation guidance information in the event of a disaster, taking into consideration the physical capabilities of the user.

[0004] Patent Document 3 describes an information processing device that provides suitable support information regarding evacuation to a person who is instructed to evacuate when a disaster occurs.

[0005] Patent document 4 describes a shelter information provision system that can respond to the requests of disaster victims and display the most suitable shelters by taking into consideration the congestion situation at the shelters and the attributes of the disaster victims, so that disaster victims can evacuate to shelters.

[0006] The hazard maps provided by each city, town, and village only show evacuation shelters on the map, and each person decides where to evacuate based on the normal conditions on the route to the shelter.

[0007] However, there are two problems: (1) the availability of evacuation routes from each location and the time required for evacuation vary greatly depending on the disaster situation, and (2) depending on the evacuation shelter's acceptance situation, evacuees may not be accepted even if they arrive.

[0008] In response to this, Patent Documents 1 and 2 dynamically generate and provide evacuation routes that take disaster conditions into account for problem (1). Patent Document 3 presents a solution to problem (2) in which the optimal evacuation site is selected and notified using the site's maximum capacity, the current number of occupants, and an estimate of the number of people expected to evacuate. Patent Document 4 also proposes automatically providing more real-time figures on the current number of people that can be accommodated. [Prior art documents] [Patent documents]

[0009] [Patent Document 1] Japanese Patent Publication No. 2020-024530 [Patent Document 2] Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2018-045519 [Patent Document 3] Japanese Patent Application Publication No. 2020-140296 [Patent Document 4] Japanese Patent Publication No. 2021-135639 Summary of the Invention [Problem to be solved by the invention]

[0010] In Patent Document 3, the number of people staying in an evacuation area is estimated based on the number of terminals of communication carriers, etc., assuming that each evacuation shelter is the center of the evacuation area, and the number of people expected to evacuate is the number of people staying in the evacuation area. This evacuation area is based on a model in which the area is "generally determined based on the distance from the evacuation shelter."

[0011] However, even in normal times, there is a difference between straight-line distance and travel distance, and it is thought that when a disaster occurs, evacuation (possible) areas will also change dynamically depending on the disaster situation. Therefore, in the invention of Patent Document 3, there may be a discrepancy between the model area and the area where people are actually heading to evacuation shelters, which could result in a large error in the estimate of the number of people planning to evacuate.

[0012] The present invention has been made in consideration of the above-mentioned problems of the prior art, and is capable of preventing discrepancies in evacuation areas and dynamically responding to evacuation situations. a device for providing evacuation shelter information to a communication terminal; method and programs For example, the objective is to provide: [Means for solving the problem]

[0013] The device of the present invention is a device that provides evacuation shelter information to a communication terminal. , multiple base station and obtains information on the number of communication terminals connected to each base station. Radio wave coverage Each an evacuated person number estimation unit that estimates the number of evacuated people within a mesh area; Multiple shelter At each evacuation shelter Based on capacity and actual capacity , each of the above shelter in an accommodating capacity acquisition unit that calculates the remaining number of people that can be accommodated; Each of the above evacuation shelters The remaining capacity and Each evacuation shelter is linked to Based on estimated travel time, In each mesh area, from among the evacuation shelters to which no evacuee has been assigned, the first evacuation shelter associated with the smallest estimated travel time from each representative point in that mesh area to each evacuation shelter is extracted, and Mesh Area Each The number of people who have not evacuated Assignments are made to each primary evacuation shelter in each extracted mesh area, and a shelter allocation unit that generates the shelter information.

[0014] The present invention For those The law is A device that provides evacuation shelter information to communication terminals Providing evacuation shelter information to communication terminals How to It is a law, multiple base station and obtains information on the number of communication terminals connected to each base station. Radio wave coverage Each Estimate the number of people who have not evacuated within a mesh area Estimation of number of evacuees Steps and Multiple shelter At each evacuation shelter Based on capacity and actual capacity , each of the above shelter in Calculate remaining capacity Acquisition of capacity Steps and Each of the above evacuation shelters The remaining capacity and Each evacuation shelter is linked to Based on estimated travel time and In each mesh area, from among the evacuation shelters to which no evacuee has been assigned, the first evacuation shelter associated with the smallest estimated travel time from each representative point in that mesh area to each evacuation shelter is extracted, and Mesh Area Each The number of people who have not evacuated Assignments are made to each primary evacuation shelter in each extracted mesh area, Generate the evacuation shelter information Shelter allocation The method is characterized by including the steps of: The program of the present invention is characterized in that it causes a computer mounted on an apparatus that provides evacuation shelter information to a communication terminal to function as: an unevacuated person number estimation unit that acquires information on the number of communication terminals connected to each of a plurality of base stations and estimates the number of unevacuated people in each mesh area, which is the radio wave coverage area of ​​each base station; an accommodating capacity acquisition unit that calculates the remaining number of people that can be accommodated at each of a plurality of evacuation shelters based on the accommodating capacity and actual accommodating capacity of each of the evacuation shelters; and an evacuation shelter allocation unit that extracts, from the evacuation shelters in each mesh area that have not been assigned unevacuated people, each first evacuation shelter associated with the smallest estimated travel time from each representative point in each mesh area to each evacuation shelter, based on the remaining accommodating capacity of each evacuation shelter and the estimated travel times associated with each evacuation shelter, and allocates the number of unevacuated people in each mesh area to each first evacuation shelter in the extracted mesh area, thereby generating the evacuation shelter information. [Effects of the Invention]

[0015] The present invention Device, method and programs According to the information provided by the website, for example, users can receive recommendations for the best evacuation shelters to use as evacuation destinations from their own communication devices. [Brief explanation of the drawings]

[0016] [Figure 1] 1 is a schematic explanatory diagram showing an example of the configuration of a shelter information providing system according to a first embodiment of the present invention; [Figure 2] 1 is a block diagram showing a schematic configuration of a smartphone conforming to the fifth generation mobile communication standard, which is a communication terminal in this embodiment. [Figure 3] FIG. 2 is a functional configuration diagram of an evacuation destination suggestion server in the present embodiment. [Figure 4] FIG. 10 is an image diagram of a configuration example showing mesh area information in this embodiment. [Figure 5] 10 is Table 1 showing an example of data collected by the evacuation destination suggestion server in the information collection step in this embodiment. [Figure 6] Table 2 shows the results of calculating the travel time difference between the nearest shelter and the second-closest shelter from Table 1 in the step of allocating shelters to mesh areas in this embodiment. [Figure 7] Table 8 shows the results of allocating non-evacuated people to other shelters in the same way as allocating the number of evacuees to nearby shelters in the step of allocating shelters to mesh areas in this embodiment. [Figure 8] Table 4 shows the results of calculations similar to Table 2 for the travel time difference between the second closest shelter and the third closest shelter in the step of allocating shelters to mesh areas in this embodiment. [Figure 9] Table 5 shows the results of allocating the number of evacuees to the second-closest evacuation shelter in the step of allocating evacuation shelters to mesh areas in this embodiment. [Figure 10] Table 6 shows the results of allocating the number of evacuees to the third closest evacuation shelter in the step of allocating evacuation shelters to mesh areas in this embodiment. [Figure 11]Table 7 shows an example of the travel time obtained in the step of allocating evacuation shelters to mesh areas in this embodiment from an area where people have not yet decided on a destination to a shelter that is still able to accept people and whose future congestion level is less than 100%. [Figure 12] Table 8 shows the results of calculations based on Table 7 in the same manner as Table 2 for the travel time difference between the nearest shelter that can accept people and whose future congestion level is less than 100% in the step of allocating shelters to mesh areas in this embodiment. [Figure 13] Table 9 shows the results of allocating the number of evacuees to the nearest shelter that can accept evacuees and has a future congestion rate of less than 100% based on Table 8 in the step of allocating evacuees to mesh areas in this embodiment. [Figure 14] Table 10 shows the results of allocating the number of evacuees to the second-closest evacuation shelter that can accommodate evacuees and has a future congestion rate of less than 100% in the step of allocating evacuation shelters to mesh areas in this embodiment, as well as the remaining evacuees who have not yet decided on a destination. [Figure 15] 10 is an image diagram showing an example of an image in which a recommended evacuation area finally formed by the evacuation destination suggestion server in this embodiment is displayed on a communication terminal. FIG. [Figure 16] FIG. 10 is an image diagram showing an example of an image displayed on a communication terminal in response to a recommended shelter inquiry in a mesh area with multiple assigned shelters in this embodiment. [Figure 17] Table 11 shows an estimate of the overall future congestion level calculated based on Table 2 of the first embodiment (difference in travel time between the nearest shelter and the second-closest shelter) in the shelter information provision system of the second embodiment of the present invention, where the overall future congestion level is set to 86%. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0017] Hereinafter, a system and method for providing evacuation shelter information according to an embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. Note that the present invention is not limited to the following embodiment. Note that in the embodiment, components having substantially the same functions and configurations are designated by the same reference numerals, and redundant explanations will be omitted. [Example]

[0018] FIG. 1 shows an example of a schematic configuration of a shelter information providing system 100 according to a first embodiment that provides shelter information to a communication terminal.

[0019] The evacuation shelter information provision system 100 includes, for example, an evacuation destination suggestion server 11, an evacuation shelter information management server 12, an evacuation information provision server 21, a weather information provision server 22 operated by the Japan Meteorological Agency or the like to provide weather information, and a disaster information provision server 23 operated by a city, town, or village, each of which can be connected to a communication network NW connected to the Internet. Each server is a computer device, and although its hardware configuration is not shown, it is made up of a control unit including a CPU (Central Processing Unit) that performs processing according to various programs, a storage unit such as a ROM (Read Only Memory), RAM (Random Access Memory), HDD (Hard Disk Drive), or SSD (Solid State Drive) that stores various programs executed by the CPU, a map information DB, etc., and an interface unit that inputs and outputs Internet signals to and from the outside.

[0020] The evacuation shelter information provision system 100 also includes a communications carrier network (connected to the communications network NW), which is a wireless communications system built by a communications business operator (communications carrier) in-house. The communications carrier network includes a plurality of wireless communications base stations (also simply referred to as base stations) 32 for connecting a plurality of wireless communications terminals (also simply referred to as communications terminals) 31. Each of the base stations 32 has a cell (also referred to as a mesh), which is a geographical area where communications are possible according to a predetermined wireless communications standard. In order to widely cover geographical areas where business is possible, whether in urban or rural areas, each communications carrier divides the country into a plurality of 10 km square meshes, for example, and expands the communication area (a plurality of cells (base stations)) at least in residential areas.

[0021] Communication terminals 31 located within each cell of base stations 32 that are densely packed together can communicate with the base station 32 corresponding to that cell.

[0022] Examples of communication terminal 31 include smartphones, which are mobile communication terminals, as well as electronic devices such as tablet terminals and notebook personal computers (PCs) equipped with communication units for a WWAN (Wireless Wide Area Network) card and a SIM (Subscriber Identity Module).

[0023] 2 is a block diagram showing an example of the schematic configuration of communication terminal 31, e.g., a smartphone conforming to the fifth-generation mobile communication standard. This smartphone includes a communication unit 401a (which may include a Wi-Fi (registered trademark) module) used for voice calls and data communication, a touch panel 401b serving as an operation and display unit for interfacing with a user, a clock 401c, a microphone 401d, a speaker 401e, a vibrator 401f, a camera 401g, a GPS sensor 401h for position detection, a gyro sensor 401i for tilt detection, a geomagnetic sensor 401j for magnetic detection, a proximity sensor 401k for distance detection, an illuminance sensor 401l for brightness detection, and an acceleration sensor 401m for inertia detection, as well as actuators and sensors, such as a controller 401n that receives signals from these sensors and controls these actuators. The controller 401n is a computer device that includes a CPU, a memory unit such as a ROM (read-only memory) or flash memory, and a RAM, and controls the overall operation of the communication terminal, including processing, by the CPU, which executes steps according to various software programs stored in the memory unit. The GPS sensor receives a GPS signal, or the communication unit 401a transmits and receives a communication signal to and from the base station 32, and the CPU detects the current position of the communication terminal 31 based on the GPS signal. The clock that measures the current time is used by the CPU for calculating the positioning by the GPS sensor. The geomagnetic sensor, acceleration sensor, and gyro sensor are also used by the CPU to detect the current position.

[0024] As shown in Figure 3, the evacuation destination suggestion server 11 has the following functional configuration: a mesh area information memory unit MEIM, a non-evacuated person number estimation unit UEPE, a capacity acquisition unit APAQ, an estimated travel time calculation unit EMTC, an evacuation shelter allocation unit EPAL, and an evacuation shelter information provision unit SIPV.

[0025] The mesh area information memory unit MEIM stores mesh area information including location information of one or more base stations 32 each connected to the communication terminal 31, the mesh area of ​​the radio wave coverage area of ​​each base station 32, and location information of one or more evacuation shelters that are candidate evacuation destinations.

[0026] The non-evacuated person number estimation unit UEPE acquires information on the positions and number of communication terminals 31 connected to each base station 32, and estimates the number of non-evacuated people within the mesh area.

[0027] The capacity acquisition unit APAQ acquires the capacity and actual capacity of each evacuation shelter, and calculates the remaining capacity of each evacuation shelter based on the capacity and actual capacity.

[0028] The estimated travel time calculation unit EMTC calculates an estimated travel time for non-evacuated people to a shelter for each mesh area based on the location information of the base station 32 and the location information of the communication terminal 31.

[0029] The evacuation shelter allocation unit EPAL allocates the number of non-evacuated people to evacuation shelters in order of shortest estimated travel time based on the remaining number of people that can be accommodated at each evacuation shelter and the estimated travel time, and allocates the number of non-evacuated people in the mesh area in order of largest difference in estimated travel time to evacuation shelters so that the total estimated travel time of non-evacuated people to the evacuation shelter is small, thereby generating evacuation shelter information over time.

[0030] The evacuation shelter allocation unit EPAL repeats the allocation as time passes until there are no more people left who have not yet been evacuated.

[0031] After the SIPV has finished assigning those who have not yet evacuated to evacuation shelters, it forms mesh areas corresponding to the evacuation shelters on a map as recommended evacuation areas where evacuation is recommended, generates evacuation destination suggestion screen information that suggests the evacuation shelters as possible evacuation destinations along with the recommended evacuation areas, and sends this information to the user's terminal.

[0032] Although not shown, the hardware configuration memory unit of the evacuation destination suggestion server 11 stores programs for executing this embodiment, such as a mesh area information memory unit MEIM, a non-evacuated person number estimation unit UEPE, a capacity acquisition unit APAQ, an estimated travel time calculation unit EMTC, an evacuation shelter allocation unit EPAL, and an evacuation shelter information provision unit SIPV.

[0033] The evacuation shelter information management server 12 is installed at each base of a local government or at each evacuation shelter, and is connected to the communication network NW. Note that the evacuation shelter information management server 12 is initially set up with attribute information such as the location information (address, name) of each evacuation shelter of the local government and its capacity (maximum number of people) pre-registered.

[0034] When the communication terminal 31 requests the evacuation information providing server 21 to provide evacuation guidance information, the evacuation information providing server 21 acquires disaster damage information for each location included in a predetermined area such as a city, town, or village in which the user is currently located from the disaster information providing server 23. The evacuation information providing server 21 also has map information including location information of evacuation shelters in the area, and searches for an evacuation route to the evacuation shelter based on the map information and the disaster damage information.

[0035] When searching for evacuation routes, disaster damage information is taken into consideration. For example, whether the shortest evacuation route to an evacuation shelter is passable is determined by taking into account the depth and speed of floodwaters at each stop point along the shortest evacuation route during a flood. If there is a possibility that the shortest evacuation route will become impassable before the user reaches the evacuation shelter, an alternative evacuation route is searched for.

[0036] In this way, the evacuation guidance information such as the shortest evacuation route to the evacuation shelter and alternative evacuation routes that have been searched for is transmitted from the evacuation information providing server 21 to the communication terminal 31 and displayed on the display device of the communication terminal 31. In this way, the user can obtain evacuation guidance information that is appropriately requested in accordance with the disaster damage information.

[0037] The disaster information providing server 23 predicts the damage situation of a disaster in a predetermined area (e.g., a city, town, or village) through simulations based on information on rainfall areas and rainfall amounts, tsunami information, river water level information, etc. provided by the weather information providing server 22, and calculates disaster damage information. Here, in the case of a flood including a tsunami, for example, the disaster damage information refers to time-series predicted values ​​of the depth and flow speed of the flood flow at each point in the flooded area. In other words, the disaster information providing server 23 calculates time-series predicted values ​​for this disaster damage information from the present until a predetermined time has elapsed, and provides the calculated time-series predicted values ​​as disaster damage information to the evacuation information providing server 21, etc.

[0038] For example, in the event of a flood, a user can request evacuation guidance information such as evacuation routes from the evacuation information providing server 21 by transmitting user information consisting of their own location information and the like to the evacuation information providing server 21 via the communication terminal 31. The location information refers to information (latitude, longitude) of the current location of the communication terminal 31, which is acquired by the communication terminal 31 via a GPS (Global Positioning System).

[0039] (Explanation of operation) The evacuation destination proposal server 11 (mesh area information storage unit) holds mesh area information that finely divides the target area, and in the event of a disaster, acquires dynamic recommended evacuation routes and walking times (required times) from each mesh area to the evacuation shelter, taking into account the disaster situation, from the evacuation information providing server 21, and calculates the future congestion level of each evacuation shelter based on this, the number of communication terminals 31 acquired from the base station 32, and the number of people that the evacuation shelter can accommodate acquired from the evacuation shelter information management server 12. In addition, the evacuation destination proposal server 11 (evacuation shelter information providing unit SIPV) generates a recommended evacuation area map divided into areas by recommended evacuation shelters based on this.

[0040] Evacuees can obtain information on shelters with sufficient capacity and short travel times from their current location, as well as evacuation routes to those shelters, by connecting to the evacuation destination suggestion server 11 from their own communication terminal 31. Furthermore, by providing maps in the form of paper printouts or signage, even evacuees who do not own a communication terminal that can be used for inquiries can determine which shelter they should head to from their current location at this time.

[0041] Unlike the static "evacuation destination area information" described in Patent Document 1, the evacuation destination suggestion server 11 in FIG. 1 has mesh area information that finely divides the target area.

[0042] The mesh area information includes information about base stations located within the area and information about multiple evacuation centers located nearby.

[0043] Figure 4 shows an example of the configuration of mesh area information in this embodiment. There is no need to use a specific method for forming mesh areas as long as the representative points and the base stations within them are clear. However, in this embodiment, the cells corresponding to each base station (Company A's base station 1A representative point, Company A's base station 2A representative point, Company B's base station 1B representative point, and Company C's base station 1C representative point) are considered to be one mesh area (A1, A2, B1, C1). Each mesh area is generally circular, centered on the base station and bounded by the radio wave coverage area. For example, assuming a 5G base station, its diameter will be several hundred meters. Although not shown, there is some overlap between the evacuation shelters XX, △△, and XX adjacent to mesh area A1, the evacuation shelters XX, △△, and □□ adjacent to mesh area A2, the evacuation shelters XX, △△, and □□ adjacent to mesh area B1, and the evacuation shelters XX, △△, and XX adjacent to mesh area C1.

[0044] In the method of this embodiment, the boundaries of the mesh areas become unclear, and overlapping areas are created around the outer edges, such as mesh area A1 and mesh area A2 in Figure 4, and there is a possibility that people may be present there, such as communication terminals 33 and 34. However, there is no problem because which cell these communication terminals 33 and 34 are counted for is uniquely determined by the communication carrier to which the communication terminals are connected, and it is sufficient to consider that the representative point and the base station within it each correspond to only one base station, so this meets the requirements.

[0045] Similarly, because there is a base station for each communication carrier and frequency band, mesh areas centered on base stations of different companies, such as mesh area A1, mesh area B1, and mesh area C1 in Figure 4, may overlap over almost the entire area, and it is possible that people may be present there, such as communication terminals 33 and 34. Even in this case, no inconvenience will occur, because which cell this communication terminal is counted for is uniquely determined by the communication terminal's connection destination.

[0046] (1: Information gathering) When a disaster occurs, the evacuation destination suggestion server 11 collects several pieces of information.

[0047] It is assumed that a terminal app is installed in the communication terminal 31. The terminal app is a software program that enables the user to view information related to evacuation. By launching the terminal app, the communication terminal 31 can access information related to evacuation provided by the evacuation information providing server 21 and use services provided by the evacuation information providing server 21.

[0048] Each base station 32 transmits the number of communication terminals 31 connected to it to the evacuation information providing server 21. As a result, the evacuation information providing server 21 identifies the number of users carrying each communication terminal 31 within each base station cell, etc.

[0049] According to the above method, the evacuation destination suggestion server 11 acquires the number of one or more communication terminals 31 (number of users) connected in each base station cell from one or more base stations 32 (or the evacuation information providing server 21) in the mesh area, and calculates the number of people in the mesh area who have not yet evacuated. number Estimate the number of people who have not evacuated number Estimation part).

[0050] Furthermore, the evacuation destination suggestion server 11 inquires of the evacuation information providing server 21 about evacuation information from a representative point within the mesh area for each evacuation shelter that is registered as being close to the mesh area.

[0051] The evacuation information providing server 21 responds with the recommended evacuation route from the representative point inquired by the evacuation destination suggestion server 11 to the evacuation shelter, the number of people that the evacuation shelter can accommodate, the current number of people that the evacuation shelter can accommodate, and the required time.

[0052] Table 1 (collected information) shown in FIG. 5 is an example of data collected by the evacuation destination suggestion server 11 from the evacuation information providing server 21 and the like at this point in time.

[0053] (2: Allocation of evacuation shelters to mesh areas) After the evacuation destination suggestion server 11 has finished collecting information, it allocates evacuation shelters to each mesh area based on this information.

[0054] Evacuation destination suggestion server 11( Shelter Allocation Department ) basically assigns to each mesh area the evacuation shelter with the shortest evacuation time. When the total number of unevacuated people in a group of mesh areas that are close to a certain evacuation shelter exceeds the remaining capacity of that evacuation shelter (capacity - current capacity), the evacuation destination proposal server 11 must allocate how many unevacuated people to accept from which mesh area. Therefore, in order to minimize the total evacuation time required for evacuation, priority is given to allocation from "mesh areas with a large difference in evacuation time (travel time) between the nearest evacuation shelter and the next nearest evacuation shelter" (evacuation shelter information provision unit).

[0055] To achieve this, the following steps are taken: First, the evacuation destination suggestion server 11 (estimated travel time calculation unit) calculates the travel time to the nearest evacuation shelter and the travel time to the second-closest evacuation shelter for each mesh area (estimated travel time calculation unit).

[0056] Table 2 in Figure 6 (travel time difference between the nearest shelter and the second-closest shelter) is the travel time difference calculated from Table 1 (collected information). The solid left-down diagonal stripes in Table 2 indicate the nearest shelter (0 minutes) from the mesh area, and the horizontal stripes indicate the second-closest shelter. The time written next to the second-closest shelter in the horizontal stripes is the travel time difference from the nearest shelter.

[0057] Next, for each evacuation shelter, the number of evacuees is allocated based on this number from the mesh area that is the nearest evacuation shelter. If multiple mesh areas are applicable, allocation is made starting from the evacuation shelter with the largest difference in travel time to the next nearest evacuation shelter.

[0058] In this example, there are four mesh areas (B3, C1, C2, and C5) that are closest to Evacuation Center 1. These mesh areas are ranked in descending order of travel time difference to the next nearest evacuation center, with the priority determined as follows: C5 (40 minutes), B3 (35 minutes), C1 and C2 (10 minutes). If the number of evacuees is allocated in this order, when 21 people (all residents) are allocated from mesh area C5 and 17 people (out of 55 residents) are allocated from B3, the future capacity, which is the sum of the allocated number of non-evacuated residents and the current capacity, is reached, so allocation for Evacuation Center 1 is temporarily terminated.

[0059] Table 3 (allocation of evacuees to nearby evacuation shelters) shown in Figure 7 summarizes the results of allocating non-evacuated people to other evacuation shelters in this example. The future congestion level is a percentage obtained by dividing the future capacity by the capacity, with 100% indicating no vacancies.

[0060] In Table 3 (allocation of evacuees to the nearest evacuation shelters), there are still mesh areas where the number of people with undecided evacuation destinations, calculated by subtracting the number of people assigned to evacuation destinations from the number of people not yet evacuated, is not 0, so the same procedure is then used to allocate the number of evacuees to the second-closest evacuation shelter.

[0061] Table 4 (travel time difference between the second-closest and third-closest shelters) shown in Figure 8 is similar to Table 2 (travel time difference between the nearest shelter and the second-closest shelter), and calculates the difference in travel time between the second-closest shelter and the next-closest shelter.

[0062] As with the allocation to the nearest evacuation shelters shown in Figure 8, the number of people in each mesh area whose evacuation destination has not yet been decided is allocated to the second-closest evacuation shelter based on Table 4 (the difference in travel time between the second-closest and third-closest evacuation shelters).If multiple mesh areas correspond to the same evacuation shelter, priority is given to allocation starting with the mesh area with the largest difference in travel time to the next-closest evacuation shelter (the vertical striped column).

[0063] Table 5 (allocation of evacuees to the second-closest shelter) shown in Figure 9 shows the results of allocating evacuees to the second-closest shelter in addition to Table 3 (allocation of evacuees to the nearest shelter).

[0064] Similarly, Table 6 (allocation of evacuees to the third-closest evacuation shelter) shown in Figure 10 shows the results of allocation to the third-closest evacuation shelter. However, in this example, it is assumed that there are three nearby evacuation shelters linked to each mesh area, and at this point, only the travel time to these shelters has been obtained. Therefore, when a priority is required for allocation to the third-closest evacuation shelter, it is determined randomly.

[0065] At this point, the allocation of evacuees based on the nearby evacuation shelter information held by the mesh area has been completed. If there are any mesh areas where people still have not yet decided on an evacuation destination, the allocation of evacuees will continue using the following procedure.

[0066] 1 again inquires of the evacuation information providing server 21 about travel times and routes from each mesh area to shelters that are still available and whose future congestion level is less than 100%. The reason for not making inquiries until this point is to reduce the number of inquiries as much as possible, thereby reducing the inquiry time and the processing load of the evacuation information providing server 21.

[0067] Table 7 in Figure 11 (travel time from an area where people have not yet decided on an evacuation destination to a shelter that is still able to accept people and whose future congestion level is less than 100%) is an example of how the obtained travel times have been organized.

[0068] Based on Table 7 shown in Figure 11, shelters that are still available are assigned to those who have not yet decided on a destination.

[0069] Table 8 in Figure 12 (travel time difference between the nearest shelter and the second-closest shelter that can accept people and whose future congestion level is less than 100%) is a calculated travel time difference, similar to Table 2 (travel time difference between the nearest shelter and the second-closest shelter).

[0070] Table 9 shown in Figure 13 (allocation of evacuees to the nearest shelters that can accept evacuees and whose future congestion level will be less than 100%) is based on Table 8 (travel time difference between the nearest shelter that can accept evacuees and whose future congestion level will be less than 100% and the second-closest shelter) and allocates evacuees to the nearest shelters that can still accept evacuees.

[0071] Table 10 (allocation of evacuees to the second-closest shelter that can accept evacuees and whose future congestion level is less than 100%) shown in Figure 14 shows the allocation of the remaining evacuees who have not yet decided on a destination to the second-closest shelter that can still accept them. In this embodiment, the allocation of all unevacuated evacuees to shelters is completed at this point.

[0072] (3: Formation of recommended evacuation areas) After the evacuation destination proposal server 11 has finished allocating evacuation shelters to each mesh area, it then forms a "recommended evacuation area." Figure 15 is an example of an image displayed on a communication terminal showing the finally formed recommended evacuation area.

[0073] First, the shelters assigned up to this point are set as recommended shelters for each mesh area plotted on the map. At this time, if the shelters are assigned to multiple shelters, it will be necessary to select one of the shelters or divide the mesh area. In this embodiment, the shelter with the largest number of people assigned will be considered the recommended shelter.

[0074] Next, each mesh area is colored according to its recommended evacuation shelter. Adjacent mesh areas with the same recommended evacuation shelter are combined. In Figure 15, mesh area A1 and mesh area C1 are combined because they have the same recommended evacuation shelter. Furthermore, adjacent mesh areas with different recommended evacuation areas overlap, resulting in multiple recommended evacuation areas. In this case, it becomes necessary to select one of the evacuation shelters or to divide the overlapping area. In this example, one recommended evacuation area is considered the recommended evacuation area for the entire overlapping area, with the recommended evacuation area of ​​the mesh area plotted later being overwritten. In Figure 15, mesh area A1 and mesh area A2 have different recommended evacuation areas, so mesh area A1 is overwritten by mesh area A2 in the overlapping area.

[0075] By performing this process for the entire map, a recommended evacuation area is formed on the map for each evacuation shelter, to which evacuation to that shelter is recommended, and the evacuation destination suggestion server 11 sends this to the evacuation information providing server 21.

[0076] In order for the evacuation destination suggestion server 11 to reflect the disaster situation and evacuation status in near real time, it frequently re-executes the above series of steps: (1) information collection, (2) allocation of evacuation shelters to each mesh area, and (3) formation of recommended evacuation areas. The execution frequency is constrained by the execution time, which is affected by the processing scale, such as the number of target mesh areas and the number of evacuation shelters, as well as the response speed and query availability of the evacuation information providing server 21. For this reason, we will not consider a specific frequency as fixed here, but will limit it to a high frequency within a reasonable range. Furthermore, whether the re-execution is triggered periodically or irregularly in response to events such as changes in disaster information or evacuation shelter information will depend on the collaboration between each server and the external parties that manage that information, so we will consider an appropriate method at the time of implementation.

[0077] Users (mainly evacuees) can inquire about recommended evacuation shelters from the evacuation information providing server 21 by accessing a predetermined application or website from their own communication terminal 31 shown in Figure 1. The evacuation information providing server 21 estimates the mesh area in which the user is currently located based on information that can be obtained from the communication terminal 31, such as GPS information and connected base station information, and provides the evacuation shelters assigned to that mesh area in the latest processing results and the current evacuation routes from the mesh area to the evacuation shelters.

[0078] In this case, if the mesh area is assigned to multiple shelters, it becomes necessary to consider whether to guide each inquiry to a single shelter or to recommend multiple (all) shelters, and if it is a single shelter, how to select it, and if it is multiple shelters, how to coordinate with the allocation. In doing so, it is also necessary to consider the possibility that the recommended evacuation destinations received by accompanying non-evacuated people (for example, family members) making inquiries within the same mesh area may not be consistent, causing confusion.

[0079] According to this embodiment, all assigned shelters are recommended, thereby eliminating inconsistencies between the recommended information received by each user. The shelter placed at the top is randomly determined with weighting proportional to the number of evacuees assigned to each shelter, thereby facilitating a smooth distribution of evacuation destinations. At the same time, the meaning of this display order is not added, allowing each user to assume and accept that differences in the display order between the recommended information received are the result of randomness or personalization rather than inconsistencies. Figure 16 shows an example image displayed on a communication terminal in response to a recommended shelter inquiry in a mesh area with multiple assigned shelters in this embodiment.

[0080] Regarding the determination of the first place in the display order, a method of linking communication terminals and recommended shelters (shelters to be placed at the top) strictly according to the allocation of the number of evacuees is also conceivable. However, considering the possibility that the same non-evacuated person may make inquiries using multiple communication terminals, the possibility that multiple non-evacuated people may make inquiries using the same communication terminal, and the possibility that there may be non-evacuated people who do not make inquiries, it is considered difficult to expect an improvement in effectiveness that is commensurate with the complexity and processing volume, and therefore this embodiment considers the method of this embodiment to be a preliminary measure and does not adopt it.

[0081] In addition, when determining the second and subsequent display orders, it is possible to use weighting, but this is not adopted in this embodiment for reasons of efficiency in terms of effectiveness, and in this embodiment the orders are arranged in order of the number of evacuees allocated.

[0082] Those issuing evacuation orders can request recommended evacuation areas or maps on which recommended evacuation areas are plotted from the evacuation information providing server 21 via a predetermined application, website, API, etc. In response to the request, the evacuation information providing server 21 provides information on recommended evacuation areas formed from the latest processing results. Those issuing evacuation orders can present or distribute this information to evacuees by any means, such as printing it on paper or displaying it on digital signage.

[0083] In this example, the system prioritizes ease of implementation and ease of use when responding to inquiries about recommended shelters and generating recommended evacuation areas, rather than strictly matching the allocation to the number of evacuees. As a result, it is possible that the number of unevacuated people heading to each shelter may differ from the calculation. However, this discrepancy between the plan and reality may arise (probably to a greater extent) from the fact that not all unevacuated people confirm the evacuation destinations recommended by this system, and that they do not necessarily follow the recommendations. This system does not provide static evacuation information, but rather dynamic evacuation information that is reviewed frequently within a reasonable range, incorporating feedback and absorbing the disadvantages of a design that prioritizes implementation and ease of use.

[0084] (Explanation of effect) According to the first embodiment, users can receive recommendations for the optimal evacuation shelter from their own communication terminal. Unlike conventional methods, this recommendation takes into consideration both the availability and optimization of evacuation routes under the current disaster situation, and the future capacity of the evacuation shelter based on an estimate of the number of people it can accommodate. In addition, by performing the allocation process in advance on an area-by-area basis, rather than performing it for each user when an inquiry is made, a larger number of people can be accommodated in a system of the same scale, and response times are faster.

[0085] Users can also receive information on recommended evacuation areas and maps, which can be presented and distributed. By viewing these bulletin boards and digital signage, or receiving printed maps, evacuees can receive information on currently available and acceptable evacuation shelters and evacuation routes, even if they have difficulty making inquiries themselves (problems with the communication device environment, communication environment, language barriers, etc.). [Example]

[0086] (Second Example) In the first embodiment, when allocating evacuation shelters to each mesh area, the evacuation destination proposal server 11 allocates evacuees from each mesh area to each evacuation shelter with a future congestion level of 100% as the upper limit. While this allocates evacuation shelters as close as possible to individual mesh areas and the evacuees there, it is possible that this will create variations in the congestion level among evacuation shelters, resulting in evacuation shelters that will soon be unable to accept evacuees. For this reason, in the second embodiment, efforts are made to equalize the congestion levels among evacuation shelters at an early stage when there is expected to be ample evacuation time.

[0087] Therefore, in the second embodiment, at the stage when the information collection results are summarized in Table 1 (collected information), (1) Total future capacity = Subtotal of current (actual) capacity + (Total number of people with undetermined evacuation destinations in each mesh area) (2) Total capacity = Subtotal capacity (3) Overall future congestion rate = Overall future capacity / Overall capacity (1) to (3) can be obtained.

[0088] In the second embodiment, Table 11 (estimate of overall future congestion level) shown in Fig. 17 is calculated based on Table 2 (difference in travel time between the nearest shelter and the second-closest shelter), and the overall future congestion level is set to 86% from this. In the allocation of shelters to each mesh area that is carried out in Table 3 (allocation of the number of evacuees to the nearest shelter) onwards, the evacuation destination suggestion server 11 does not allocate evacuees to each shelter with a future congestion level of 100%, but rather allocates evacuees with an upper limit of the overall future congestion level of 86% calculated here, or a slightly higher percentage, such as 90%, to allow for a little more leeway in the allocation.

[0089] According to the second embodiment, while allocating evacuation shelters to all non-evacuated people and all mesh areas in the same way as in the first embodiment, the future congestion degree of each evacuation shelter is uniformly set to a value close to the overall future congestion degree, and congestion at each evacuation shelter can be leveled out. This allows each evacuation shelter to have some leeway in its operation, and also maintains its ability to accept new non-evacuated people (those in need of evacuation) when the disaster situation in the vicinity changes in the future.

[0090] (Variation) As a variant, an edge computer can be installed next to the base station 32, which can then query the evacuation information providing server 21 about evacuation routes and provide evacuation destination information to communication terminals. In this case, the evacuation destination suggestion server 11 only estimates congestion levels and reviews evacuation destinations based on information collected from each edge computer, and returns the adjustment results to the edge computer. Even if the network or server from the base station 32 becomes unavailable for some reason, it is possible to provide the evacuation information last obtained on the edge computer side, thereby increasing resiliency.

[0091] In the second embodiment, the current capacity of evacuees is treated as if it cannot be changed. However, in cases where there is already a significant imbalance in the degree of congestion at evacuation shelters, it may be desirable to include the transfer (re-evacuation) of evacuated people in the plan to achieve further leveling. In this case, as an application example of the second embodiment, the number of people to be transferred from a highly congested evacuation shelter can be subtracted from the current capacity, and this can be added to the number of people not yet evacuated in the mesh area closest to this shelter (which usually includes this shelter), and then evacuation shelter allocation can be performed taking into account the leveling in the second embodiment. This makes it possible to level the degree of congestion even down to the current capacity.

[0092] While the second example assumes that all evacuation shelters have the same future congestion level, it is conceivable that a specific evacuation shelter may need to have available space in the future due to the occurrence of a new disaster. In this case, as an application example, the second example can be applied by setting the upper limit of the future congestion level of the specific evacuation shelter to a value lower than the overall future congestion level to account for the desired availability, or by assuming the evacuation shelter's capacity to be lower than its actual capacity. The former is referred to as allocation based on the target future congestion level at that time, and the latter is referred to as allocation based on the target capacity. In both cases, allocation based on the target future congestion level involves calculating the overall future congestion level, setting the target future congestion level for the specific evacuation shelter, and then recalculating the overall future congestion level for the remaining evacuation shelters. Allocation based on the target capacity is considered superior in terms of computational complexity, since it requires only changing the input values ​​in the calculation process. In either case, this application example makes it possible to ensure the future capacity of a specific evacuation shelter. [Explanation of symbols]

[0093] 11 Evacuation destination suggestion server 12. Evacuation shelter information management server 21 Evacuation information server 22 Weather information server 23 Disaster information server MEIM Mesh Area Information Storage Unit UEPE Estimating the number of unevacuated people APAQ capacity acquisition department EMTC Estimated Travel Time Calculation Unit EPAL Shelter Allocation Department SIPV Evacuation Center Information Department

Claims

1. A device for providing evacuation shelter information to a communication terminal, an unevacuated person number estimation unit that acquires information on the number of communication terminals connected to each of a plurality of base stations and estimates the number of unevacuated people within each mesh area, which is the radio wave reachable range of each base station; a capacity acquisition unit that calculates the remaining capacity of each evacuation shelter based on the capacity and actual capacity of each evacuation shelter; Based on the remaining capacity of each evacuation shelter and each estimated travel time associated with each evacuation shelter, In each mesh area, among the shelters that have not yet been assigned to evacuees, Extracting each first evacuation shelter associated with the smallest estimated travel time from each representative point in each mesh area to each evacuation shelter; and a shelter allocation unit that allocates the number of non-evacuated people in each mesh area to each first shelter in each mesh area and generates the shelter information. An apparatus characterized in that

2. The shelter allocation unit: In each of the first evacuation shelters, when the total number of unevacuated people in the plurality of first mesh areas that are to be designated as second evacuation shelters linked to the plurality of first mesh areas with the smallest estimated travel time exceeds the remaining capacity of the second evacuation shelter, Furthermore, in each of the first mesh areas of the plurality of first mesh areas, from among the evacuation shelters to which no evacuee has been assigned, extract each third evacuation shelter associated with the second smallest estimated travel time from each representative point in each first mesh area to each evacuation shelter; In the plurality of first mesh areas, the difference between the smallest estimated travel time associated with the second evacuation shelter and the second smallest estimated travel time associated with the third evacuation shelter is the largest. The number of non-evacuated people in the first mesh area is prioritized and allocated to the second evacuation shelter, and the evacuation shelter information is generated.

2. The device of claim 1 .

3. The shelter allocation unit: Generate the evacuation shelter information over time 3. The device according to claim 1 or 2.

4. A method for providing evacuation shelter information to a communication terminal by a device for providing evacuation shelter information to a communication terminal, comprising: a non-evacuated person number estimation step of acquiring information on the number of communication terminals connected to each of a plurality of base stations and estimating the number of non-evacuated people within each mesh area, which is the radio wave coverage area of ​​each base station; a capacity acquisition step of calculating the remaining number of people that can be accommodated at each of a plurality of evacuation shelters based on the capacity and actual number of people that can be accommodated at each of the evacuation shelters; Based on the remaining capacity of each evacuation shelter and each estimated travel time associated with each evacuation shelter, In each mesh area, among the shelters that have not yet been assigned to evacuees, Extracting each first evacuation shelter associated with the smallest estimated travel time from each representative point in each mesh area to each evacuation shelter; a shelter allocation step of allocating the number of non-evacuated people in each mesh area to each first shelter in each mesh area extracted, and generating the shelter information; A method comprising:

5. A computer installed in a device that provides evacuation shelter information to a communication terminal, a non-evacuated person number estimation unit that acquires information on the number of communication terminals connected to each of a plurality of base stations and estimates the number of non-evacuated people within each mesh area, which is the radio wave reachable range of each base station; an accommodating capacity acquisition unit that calculates the remaining accommodating capacity of each of a plurality of evacuation shelters based on the accommodating capacity and actual accommodating capacity of each of the evacuation shelters; Based on the remaining capacity of each evacuation shelter and each estimated travel time associated with each evacuation shelter, In each mesh area, among the shelters that have not yet been assigned to evacuees, Extracting each first evacuation shelter associated with the smallest estimated travel time from each representative point in each mesh area to each evacuation shelter; a shelter allocation unit that allocates the number of non-evacuated people in each mesh area to each first shelter in each extracted mesh area, and generates the shelter information; A program characterized by functioning as

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