Information processing device, prediction method, and prediction program

Abstract

An information processing device 1 comprises: a storage unit 11 for storing a first replacement probability, at which first power storage devices 2 used in a plurality of vehicles 3A are replaced, for each of SOH bands which are obtained by dividing the SOH of the power storage devices 2 into a plurality of levels; a processing unit 10; and a communication unit 14. In the information processing device 1, the processing unit 10: communicates with a plurality of vehicles 3B, in which second power storage devices 2 of the type the same as that of the first power storage devices 2 or second power storage devices 2 having operation deterioration characteristics similar to those of the first power storage devices 2 are used, and / or with a plurality of charging devices 5 which charge the second power storage devices 2; adds up the number of the second power storage devices 2 for each of the SOH bands; and predicts the number of the second power storage devices 2 necessary for replacement, on the basis of the first replacement probability and the number of the second power storage devices 2 for each of the SOH bands.

Description

Information processing device, prediction method, and prediction program

[0001] The technology disclosed in this specification relates to an information processing device, a prediction method, and a prediction program.

[0002] It is known that the full charge capacity (hereinafter simply referred to as "charge capacity") of an energy storage element such as a lithium-ion secondary battery decreases with use (see, for example, Patent Document 1). When the charge capacity decreases, the energy storage element cannot perform to its full potential, and therefore an energy storage element with a decreased charge capacity may be replaced with a new energy storage element. In the following explanation, a decrease in charge capacity is referred to as degradation of an energy storage element. The indicator of degradation of an energy storage element is not limited to the charge capacity. For example, the internal resistance value may also be used as an indicator of degradation.

[0003] Patent No. 6988386 (paragraph 0018)

[0004] Energy storage elements mounted on vehicles, which are an example of mobile bodies, are manufactured mainly for two purposes: for new vehicles to be mounted on new vehicles, and for replacing (in other words, repairing) deteriorated energy storage elements. For new vehicles, the number of energy storage elements required can be predicted from the number of vehicles manufactured to be mounted on. In contrast, for replacement energy storage elements, the need for replacement is only discovered after the energy storage elements have actually deteriorated in the market. For this reason, it has been difficult to appropriately determine the number of replacement energy storage elements to be manufactured. One aspect of the present invention is to prevent CO2 emissions due to excessive production of replacement energy storage elements. ２ The aim is to reduce emissions.

[0005] The information processing device disclosed in this specification includes a memory unit that stores a first replacement probability of replacing a first storage element used in each of a plurality of first-type devices for each deterioration stage obtained by dividing the deterioration state of a storage element into a plurality of stages, a processing unit, and a communication unit, and the processing unit communicates with at least one of a plurality of second-type devices that use a second storage element of the same type as the first storage element or a second storage element having operational deterioration characteristics similar to the first storage element, and a plurality of charging devices that charge the second storage elements, to tally the number of the second storage elements for each deterioration stage, and predicts the number of the second storage elements that will be required for replacement based on the number of the second storage elements for each deterioration stage and the first replacement probability.

[0006] According to the above configuration, CO2 caused by excessive production of replacement storage elements ２ Emissions can be reduced.

[0007] Schematic diagram of an information processing device according to the first embodiment. Block diagram showing the electrical configuration of the information processing device. Schematic diagram showing various information related to the power storage device. Table in which information related to the first power storage device at the present time is compiled. Histogram showing the number of power storage devices that have reached each SOH band shown in FIG. 4. Histogram showing the number of power storage devices that have been replaced due to deterioration in each SOH band. Table in which information related to the second power storage device at the present time is compiled. Table showing the replacement probability (second replacement probability) of the first power storage device due to failure. Table in which information related to the second power storage device is compiled. Table showing the predicted number of replacement second power storage devices one year from now. Graph showing the operational deterioration characteristics of the first power storage device. Histogram showing the number of second power storage devices currently on the market shown in FIG. 9. Histogram showing the number one year from now.

[0008] [Outline of the embodiment] First, an outline of the embodiment of the present disclosure will be listed and described.

[0009] (1) An information processing device according to an embodiment includes a memory unit that stores a first replacement probability of replacing a first storage element used in each of a plurality of first-type devices for each deterioration stage obtained by dividing the deterioration state of a storage element into a plurality of stages, a processing unit, and a communication unit. The processing unit communicates with at least one of a plurality of second-type devices that use a second storage element of the same type as the first storage element or a second storage element having similar operational deterioration characteristics to the first storage element, and a plurality of charging devices that charge the second storage elements, to tally the number of the second storage elements for each deterioration stage, and predicts the number of the second storage elements that will be required for replacement based on the number of the second storage elements for each deterioration stage and the first replacement probability.

[0010] Operational degradation refers to the progression of degradation as the storage device is operated. Factors that cause degradation to progress with operation include aging degradation over time and current degradation due to current flow. The above-mentioned operational degradation characteristics refer to information that represents the relationship between the degradation state and time. When it is not possible to properly determine the number of replacement storage elements that should be manufactured, it is possible to manufacture more replacement storage elements in advance to prevent a shortage of replacement storage elements when replacement of storage elements becomes necessary. However, in recent years, CO ２ Therefore, it is important to limit the number of energy storage elements manufactured to an appropriate number, in other words, to reduce CO2 emissions caused by excessive production of energy storage elements. ２ There is a need to curb emissions.

[0011] According to the information processing device described in (1) above, the first exchange probability of replacing a first storage element of the same type as the second storage element or a first storage element having similar operational deterioration characteristics to the second storage element is stored in the storage unit for each deterioration stage. Therefore, the number of second storage elements required for replacement can be predicted based on the number of second storage elements for each deterioration stage and the first exchange probability. Therefore, when manufacturing replacement second storage elements, by not manufacturing more than the predicted number, CO2 emissions due to excessive manufacturing of replacement second storage elements can be reduced. ２ Emissions can be reduced.

[0012] (2) In the information processing device described in (1) above, the processing unit may communicate with at least one of a plurality of the first type of equipment and a plurality of charging devices that charge the first storage element during the life cycle of the first storage element to tally up the number of the first storage elements that have reached each of the deterioration stages, obtain replacement information indicating the deterioration stage when the first storage element is replaced via the communication unit from an external device to which the replacement information indicating the deterioration stage when the first storage element is replaced is input, tally up the number of the first storage elements that were replaced at each deterioration stage based on the replacement information, calculate the first replacement probability of the first storage element for each deterioration stage based on the respective tallying results, and store the calculated first replacement probability in the memory unit.

[0013] According to the information processing device described in (2) above, by repeatedly communicating with at least one of a plurality of first-type devices and a plurality of charging devices that charge the first storage elements during the life cycle of the first storage elements, it is possible to tally the number of first storage elements that have reached each deterioration stage. According to the information processing device described in (2) above, by acquiring replacement information from an external device, it is possible to tally the number of first storage elements that have been replaced at each deterioration stage. According to the information processing device described in (2) above, it is possible to calculate a first replacement probability for each deterioration stage based on the respective tally results (the number of first storage elements that have reached that deterioration stage and the number of first storage elements that have been replaced at that deterioration stage).

[0014] (3) In the information processing device described in (1) or (2) above, the memory unit further stores a second replacement probability of the first storage element being replaced due to a failure for each elapsed time period, which is divided into regular time intervals from when the use of the first storage element began, and the processing unit communicates with at least one of a plurality of the second type of equipment and a plurality of the charging devices that charge the second storage elements to tally the number of the second storage elements that have reached each elapsed time period, predicts the number of the second storage elements that will be replaced due to a failure based on the number of the second storage devices for each elapsed time period and the second replacement probability, and predicts the number of the second storage elements that will be required for replacement by adding the number of the second storage elements that will be replaced due to a failure to the number of the second storage elements predicted based on the number of the second storage elements for each deterioration stage and the first replacement probability.

[0015] According to the information processing device described in (3) above, the number of second storage elements required for replacement can be predicted more accurately by adding the number of second storage elements to be replaced due to a failure to the number of second storage elements predicted based on the number of second storage elements for each deterioration stage and the first replacement probability.

[0016] (4) In an information processing device described in any one of (1) to (3) above, the processing unit may predict, for each degradation stage, the number of second storage elements that will reach that degradation stage after a predetermined time based on the operational deterioration characteristics of the first storage element and the number of second storage elements for each degradation stage, and may predict the number of second storage elements that will be required for replacement after the predetermined time based on the number of second storage elements for each degradation stage after the predetermined time and the first replacement probability.

[0017] According to the information processing device described in (4) above, it is possible to predict, for each degradation stage, the number of second storage elements that will reach that degradation stage after a predetermined time based on the operational degradation characteristics of the first storage elements and the number of second storage elements for each degradation stage.Furthermore, according to the information processing device described in (4) above, it is possible to predict the number of second storage elements that will be required for replacement after a predetermined time based on the number of second storage elements for each degradation stage after a predetermined time and the first replacement probability of the first storage elements.

[0018] That is, according to the information processing device described in (4) above, in addition to predicting the number of second storage elements required for replacement, it is also possible to predict the time when the replacement will be required. For example, by predicting the number of second storage elements to be replaced from the current time onwards and the number of second storage elements to be replaced from a predetermined time after the current time, the difference can be predicted as the number of second storage elements to be replaced between the current time and the predetermined time. Similarly, it is also possible to predict the number of second storage elements to be replaced between a predetermined time and another predetermined time after that. Therefore, according to the information processing device described in (4) above, it is possible to manufacture the required number of replacement second storage elements at the required time.

[0019] (5) In an information processing device described in any one of (1) to (4) above, the processing unit may provide the number of second storage elements required for replacement to a specified destination via the communication unit.

[0020] According to the information processing device described in (5) above, for example, if the number of replacement energy storage elements required is provided to the manufacturer of the second energy storage elements, the manufacturer can adjust the number of units to be manufactured accordingly, thereby preventing excessive production of replacement second energy storage elements. If multiple manufacturers manufacture second energy storage elements, the manufacturers can share information and adjust the number of units to be manufactured among themselves, thereby preventing excessive production of replacement second energy storage elements.

[0021] Here, even if the second storage element replaced due to deterioration cannot continue to be used for its original purpose, it may be able to be reused (recycled) for another purpose (repurposed). For example, a storage element mounted on a vehicle cannot continue to be used in the vehicle for safety reasons if it deteriorates, but it may be able to be reused for another purpose that does not pose a safety problem. For example, storage elements used in energy storage facilities that store electricity generated by natural energy sources such as solar and wind power, or storage elements used in energy storage facilities that store electricity generated from grid power for peak shifting, do not pose a major safety problem even if they deteriorate. For this reason, storage elements that cannot continue to be used in a vehicle may be reused (recycled) in these energy storage facilities. A storage element replaced due to a malfunction can be repaired and reused for the same purpose.

[0022] Therefore, the recipient may be a recycling company that recycles the replaced second energy storage elements or a reuse company that reuses them. If the number of second energy storage elements predicted to be replaced due to deterioration is provided to the recycling company, the recycling company can predict the number of second energy storage elements to be supplied in the future, thereby improving convenience for the recycling company. Similarly, if the number of second energy storage elements predicted to be replaced due to failure is provided to the reuse company, the reuse company can predict the number of second energy storage elements to be supplied in the future, thereby improving convenience for the reuse company.

[0023] (6) In a prediction method according to an embodiment, an information processing device divides the deterioration state of a storage element into a plurality of stages, and stores in a memory unit a first replacement probability of replacing a first storage element used in each of a plurality of first-type devices for each deterioration stage. The information processing device communicates with at least one of a plurality of second-type devices that use a second storage element of the same type as the first storage element or a second storage element having operational deterioration characteristics similar to the first storage element, and a plurality of charging devices that charge the second storage elements, to tally the number of the second storage elements for each deterioration stage, and predicts the number of the second storage elements that will be required for replacement based on the number of the second storage elements for each deterioration stage and the first replacement probability.

[0024] According to the prediction method described in (6) above, CO ２ Emissions can be reduced.

[0025] (7) The prediction program of the embodiment causes a computer to execute the following processes: a process of storing in a memory unit a first replacement probability of replacing a first storage element used in each of a plurality of first-type devices for each deterioration stage obtained by dividing the deterioration state of the storage element into a plurality of stages; a process of communicating with at least one of a plurality of second-type devices that use a second storage element of the same type as the first storage element or a second storage element having operational deterioration characteristics similar to the first storage element, and a plurality of charging devices that charge the second storage elements, to tally the number of the second storage elements for each deterioration stage; and a process of predicting the number of the second storage elements that will be required for replacement based on the number of the second storage elements for each deterioration stage and the first replacement probability.

[0026] According to the prediction program described in (7) above, CO ２ Emissions can be reduced.

[0027] [Details of the Embodiments] Details of the embodiments of the present disclosure will be described. The present disclosure is not limited to these examples, but is defined by the claims, and is intended to include all modifications within the meaning and scope of the claims. The embodiments of the present disclosure can be realized in various forms, such as an apparatus, a method, a computer program for implementing the functions of these apparatuses or methods, and a recording medium on which the computer program is recorded.

[0028] First Embodiment A first embodiment will be described with reference to Figures 1 to 8. In the following description, the reference numerals of the drawings may be omitted for the same components, with some exceptions.

[0029] (1) Information Processing Device An information processing device 1 (an example of a computer) according to a first embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. 1 . The information processing device 1 is a device that predicts the number of power storage devices 2 that will be required as replacement devices in the future. In the first embodiment, a power storage device 2 mounted on a vehicle 3 will be described as an example. The information processing device 1 is arranged in a facility called a data center. The information processing device 1 can communicate with the vehicle 3 on which the power storage device 2 is mounted, a charging device 5 that charges replaceable power storage devices 2 stored in a battery station 4, a computer (an example of an external device) arranged in a maintenance workshop 6 for the vehicle 3, a computer of a manufacturer 7 of the power storage device 2, a computer of a reuse company 8 of the power storage device 2, a computer of a recycler 9 of the power storage device 2, and the like.

[0030] (2) Electrical Configuration of Information Processing Device The electrical configuration of the information processing device 1 will be described with reference to Figure 2. The information processing device 1 is a so-called personal computer or server computer, and includes a processing unit 10, a storage unit 11, a display unit 12, an operation unit 13, and a communication unit 14. The processing unit 10 has a CPU 10A and a RAM 10B. The display unit 12 is composed of a display device such as a liquid crystal display, a drive circuit for driving the display device, etc. The operation unit 13 includes a keyboard, a mouse, a touch panel, etc. The communication unit 14 is a communication circuit for connecting the information processing device 1 to a telecommunications line such as the Internet or a mobile communication network. The storage unit 11 stores various programs and data executed by the CPU 10A. The various programs include a prediction program.

[0031] (3) Energy Storage Device The energy storage device 2 will be described with reference to FIG. 1 . The energy storage device 2 includes one or more energy storage elements 2A, a management unit, and a communication unit. The energy storage elements 2A are secondary batteries that can be repeatedly charged and discharged, and specifically, for example, lithium-ion secondary batteries. In the first embodiment, one energy storage device 2 includes 12 energy storage elements 2A. The management unit includes a microcomputer, various sensors, and the like, and monitors the charge / discharge current, state of charge (SOC), and state of health (SOH) of the energy storage device 2. The communication unit includes a communication circuit that enables the management unit to communicate with external devices (such as the vehicle 3 and the charging device 5), and a communication connector to which a communication cable is connected.

[0032] (4) Vehicle and Charging Device The vehicle 3 is, for example, a vehicle capable of information communication known as a connected car. The connected car is equipped with an auxiliary power storage device 2 that supplies power to various auxiliary devices. The connected car may be an electric vehicle, a hybrid vehicle, or a plug-in hybrid vehicle. The power storage device 2 may be a vehicle drive power storage device 2 that supplies power to an electric motor for driving the vehicle that is equipped in the vehicle 3.

[0033] The vehicle driving power storage device 2 mounted on an electric vehicle or a plug-in hybrid vehicle may be replaceable. In this case, when the SOC of the power storage device 2 decreases while the vehicle 3 is traveling, the power storage device 2 is replaced with a replaceable power storage device 2 stored in a battery station 4, and the vehicle continues traveling.

[0034] The charging device 5 has a communication unit that communicates with the information processing device 1 and a charging cable that is connected to the replaceable power storage device 2. The charging cable includes a communication cable for communicating with a management unit of the power storage device 2.

[0035] The vehicle 3 periodically communicates with the power storage device 2 to acquire various types of information related to the power storage device 2, and transmits the acquired information to the information processing device 1. The various types of information related to the power storage device 2 will be described later. When a charging cable is connected to the replaceable power storage device 2, the charging device 5 communicates with the power storage device 2 to acquire various types of information related to the power storage device 2, and transmits the acquired information to the information processing device 1.

[0036] Vehicle 3 does not need to be capable of information communication as long as the vehicle's power storage device 2 for driving the vehicle is charged by an external charging device, such as an electric vehicle or a plug-in hybrid vehicle. In other words, vehicle 3 does not need to be a connected car. When a charging device is connected to vehicle 3 to charge the power storage device 2 mounted on vehicle 3, the charging device may acquire various pieces of information related to power storage device 2 from vehicle 3 and transmit the information to information processing device 1.

[0037] (5) Various Information Related to the Power Storage Device Various information related to the power storage device 2 will be described with reference to Fig. 3. The various information related to the power storage device 2 includes acquisition source information indicating the source of the information (vehicle 3A, vehicle 3B, battery station 4A, battery station 4B, etc.), the date the information was acquired (year, month, and day), the model, SOC, SOH, etc. of the power storage device 2. In addition, the various information related to the power storage device 2 also includes identification information for uniquely identifying the power storage device 2.

[0038] (6) Prediction of the number of storage devices required for replacement As shown in FIG. 1, here, the vehicle 3 is classified into vehicle 3A (an example of a first type of equipment) and vehicle 3B (an example of a second type of equipment), and vehicle 3A is equipped with a first storage device 2, and vehicle 3B is equipped with a second storage device 2.

[0039] The first power storage device 2 and the second power storage device 2 are the same product (in other words, of the same type), but are installed in different vehicle models. The second power storage device 2 was first supplied to the market a certain amount of time (e.g., 3 to 5 years) after the first power storage device 2 was first supplied to the market. The power storage element 2A included in the first power storage device 2 is an example of a first power storage element, and the power storage element 2A included in the second power storage device 2 is an example of a second power storage element.

[0040] A vehicle 3A that has undergone minor changes may be supplied to the market some time after the initial model of the vehicle 3A is supplied to the market. In this case, the vehicle 3A after the minor changes and the power storage device 2 installed therein may be regarded as the second-type device and the second power storage device. As another example, consider a case where the vehicle 3A continues to be supplied to the market for several years without undergoing a model change. In this case, the replacement probability for the power storage device of a vehicle 3A of the same model that is supplied to the market several years later may be calculated based on accumulated data related to the vehicle 3A that was initially supplied to the market. In other words, the vehicle 3A of the same model that is supplied to the market several years later and the power storage device 2 installed therein may be regarded as the second-type device and the second power storage device.

[0041] The following describes an example of predicting the number of second storage devices 2 that will be required as replacements. Storage devices 2 may be replaced due to deterioration or due to a malfunction. The following describes the cases where replacement is due to deterioration and the case where replacement is due to a malfunction.

[0042] (6-1) Prediction of the number of second power storage devices to be replaced due to deterioration The information processing device 1 predicts the number of second power storage devices 2 that will be required for replacement based on the probability of replacement due to deterioration for each deterioration stage of the first power storage devices 2 (hereinafter referred to as the first replacement probability). This will be explained in detail below.

[0043] (6-1-1) Counting of Information Related to the First Storage Device Table 30 shown in Fig. 4 is a table in which information related to the first storage device 2 at the current time point is counted. Table 30 includes the SOH band, the number of first storage devices 2 that have reached each SOH band, the number of first storage devices 2 that have been replaced due to deterioration, and the first replacement probability.

[0044] Although the charge capacity or internal resistance value can be used as the SOH, the following description will be given taking the charge capacity as an example. When the charge capacity is used, the SOH is expressed as a ratio (%) of the current charge capacity to the charge capacity of an undegraded storage device 2 (in other words, a new storage device 2).

[0045] In Table 30, the range of possible SOH values ​​(0 to 100%) is divided into 20 SOH bands (examples of degradation stages) by dividing the range into 5% intervals. 100 to 95% means that the SOH is greater than 95% and less than or equal to 100%, and 95 to 90% means that the SOH is greater than 90% and less than or equal to 95%. The same applies to other SOH bands. Here, an example will be explained in which the range of possible SOH values ​​is divided into 20 SOH bands, but the number of SOH bands into which the range of possible SOH values ​​is divided can be determined as appropriate.

[0046] The information processing device 1 repeatedly communicates with the vehicle 3 and the charging device 5 during the life cycle of the first power storage device 2 to create the table 30. Specifically, the information processing device 1 acquires various information about the power storage devices 2 supplied to the market by periodically communicating with the vehicle 3 or by communicating with the charging device 5 when the power storage device 2 is connected to the charging device 5. The power storage devices 2 referred to here include power storage devices 2 other than the first power storage device 2. The information processing device 1 determines the model of the power storage device 2 from the acquired information and tallies the number of first power storage devices 2 that have reached each SOH band.

[0047] Separately from this, the information processing device 1 acquires, from a computer at a vehicle maintenance workshop 6, replacement information indicating the SOH band when the first power storage device 2 is replaced. Specifically, when a mechanic at the maintenance workshop 6 replaces the power storage device 2 mounted on the vehicle 3, the mechanic inputs replacement information for the replaced power storage device 2 (in other words, the power storage device 2 removed from the vehicle 3 due to replacement) into the computer at the maintenance workshop 6. The replacement information includes identification information for uniquely identifying the power storage device 2, the model of the power storage device 2, the SOH, the reason for replacement, etc. Deterioration or failure is input as the reason for replacement. The computer transmits the input replacement information to the information processing device 1.

[0048] The computer at the repair shop 6 may be an OBD (On Board Diagnostics) scan tool. In that case, the OBD scan tool may communicate with the power storage device 2 to acquire identification information, model, SOH, etc., and the mechanic may input the reason for replacement into the OBD scan tool. Then, the OBD scan tool may transmit this information to the information processing device 1.

[0049] When the information processing device 1 receives the replacement information, it determines whether the replaced power storage device 2 is the first power storage device 2, and if it is the first power storage device 2, it determines whether the replacement is due to deterioration. If the replacement is due to deterioration, the information processing device 1 adds 1 to the number of units replaced due to deterioration in the SOH band to which the SOH included in the replacement information belongs. In this way, the number of first power storage devices 2 replaced due to deterioration is tallied for each SOH band.

[0050] In the example shown in FIG. 4 , the number of first storage power devices 2 that reached the 100-95% SOH band is 5,000, and the number of first storage power devices 2 that were replaced due to deterioration when the SOH was 100-95% is zero. This means that all 5,000 storage power devices 2 reached the 95-90% SOH band. The first replacement probability is calculated for each SOH band by dividing the number of devices that were replaced due to deterioration by the number of devices that reached that SOH band. In the example shown in FIG. 4 , one first storage power device 2 was replaced due to deterioration when the SOH band was 95-90%. This means that 4,999 of the 5,000 first storage power devices 2 that reached the 95-90% SOH band reached the 90-85% SOH band. The number of units that reached the 95-90% SOH band was 5,000, and one of them was replaced in the 95-90% SOH band, so the first replacement probability in the 95-90% SOH band is 0.02% (= 1 / 5,000 × 100%).

[0051] Generally, the life cycle of a power storage device 2 is 10 to 15 years. Table 30 is updated over the life cycle of the first power storage device 2, and therefore the tabulation results change over time. When predicting the number of second power storage devices 2 that will be required as replacements, the most recent table 30 at the time of prediction is used.

[0052] FIG. 5A shows a histogram of the number of storage devices 2 that reached each SOH band shown in Table 30, and FIG. 5B shows a histogram of the number of storage devices 2 that were replaced due to deterioration in each SOH band.

[0053] (6-1-2) Aggregation of Information Related to the Second Power Storage Device Table 31 shown in FIG. 6 is a table in which information related to the second power storage device 2 at the current time point is aggregated. The information processing device 1 creates table 31 by repeatedly communicating with vehicles 3 and charging devices 5 during the life cycle of the second power storage device 2. Table 31 includes the SOH band, the number of second power storage devices 2 on the market, a first replacement probability of the first power storage device 2, and a predicted value of the number of units to be replaced due to deterioration. The predicted value of the number of units to be replaced is a value obtained by multiplying the number of second power storage devices 2 on the market by the first replacement probability of the first power storage device 2 for each SOH band. The information processing device 1 predicts the number of second power storage devices 2 to be replaced due to deterioration from the current time point onwards, based on a total value (hereinafter referred to as a first total value) obtained by summing up the predicted values ​​of the number of units to be replaced determined for each SOH band.

[0054] (6-2) Prediction of the Number of Second Storage Devices to be Replaced Due to Failure Table 32 shown in Fig. 7 is a table showing the probability of replacement due to failure of the first storage device 2 (hereinafter referred to as the second replacement probability). Table 32 includes elapsed time periods obtained by dividing the time elapsed since the start of use of the first storage device 2 into one-year intervals (an example of a fixed time interval), the number of first storage devices 2 that have reached the elapsed time period, the number of first storage devices 2 that have been replaced due to failure, and the second replacement probability.

[0055] Here, because not all first power storage devices 2 start being used at the same time, the point in time at which counting the elapsed time starts varies depending on the first power storage device 2. For this reason, the information processing device 1 counts the elapsed time for each power storage device 2. For example, when use of one first power storage device 2 starts, the information processing device 1 adds 1 to the number of devices that have reached the elapsed time zone of 0 to 1 year. Then, when the elapsed time of that first power storage device 2 reaches 1 year, the information processing device 1 adds 1 to the number of devices that have reached the elapsed time zone of 1 to 2 years. By performing this for each first power storage device 2 supplied to the market, the number of first power storage devices 2 that have reached each elapsed time zone is tallied.

[0056] The number of units replaced due to a fault is tallied from the replacement information received from the maintenance shop 6. Specifically, upon receiving the replacement information, the information processing device 1 determines whether the replaced power storage device 2 is the first power storage device 2, and if it is the first power storage device 2, determines whether the replacement is due to a fault. If the replacement is due to a fault, the information processing device 1 adds 1 to the number of units replaced due to a fault in the elapsed time period to which the elapsed time from the start of use of the power storage device 2 identified by the identification information included in the information belongs. In this way, the number of first power storage devices 2 replaced due to a fault is tallied for each elapsed time period. Then, the information processing device 1 calculates a second replacement probability by dividing the number of units replaced due to a fault for each elapsed time period by the number of units that have reached that elapsed time period.

[0057] 8 is a table in which information related to the second power storage device 2 is compiled. Table 33 includes an elapsed time period, the number of second power storage devices 2 that have reached the elapsed time period at the current time, a second replacement probability of the first power storage device 2, and a predicted value of the number of units to be replaced due to a failure.

[0058] The number of second storage power devices 2 that have reached each elapsed time period is tallied in the same manner as for the first storage power devices 2. The predicted number of replacement units is found for each elapsed time period by multiplying the number of second storage power devices 2 that have reached that elapsed time period by the second replacement probability of the first storage power devices 2 for that elapsed time period. The information processing device 1 sums up the predicted number of replacement units found for each elapsed time period to predict the number of second storage power devices 2 that will be replaced due to a failure. Hereinafter, the sum of the predicted number of replacement units found for each elapsed time period will be referred to as the second sum.

[0059] (6-3) Number of Second Power Storage Devices Required as Replacements After a Predetermined Time The information processing device 1 predicts the number of second power storage devices 2 that will be required as replacements after the present time by adding the number of second power storage devices 2 that will be replaced due to failure (second total value) to the number of second power storage devices 2 that will be replaced due to deterioration (first total value). In the above example, the predicted number is 597 (=559+38).

[0060] (7) Providing Information on the Predicted Number of Second Storage Energy Devices Required as Replacements The information processing device 1 provides the number of second storage energy devices 2 predicted to be required as replacements to a predetermined recipient. The predetermined recipients are a computer of a manufacturer 7 of the energy storage energy devices 2, a computer of a reuse company 8 of the energy storage energy devices 2, a computer of a recycler 9 of the energy storage energy devices 2, and the like. The number can be provided by any appropriate method. For example, the information may be made public on the Internet or sent by email.

[0061] (8) Effects of the embodiment According to the information processing device 1 of the first embodiment, the first exchange probability of the first storage battery 2 of the same type as the second storage battery 2 is stored in the storage unit 11 for each SOH band. Therefore, the number of second storage batteries 2 required for replacement can be predicted based on the number of second storage batteries 2 for each SOH band and the first exchange probability. Therefore, when manufacturing replacement second storage batteries 2, by not manufacturing more than the predicted number, CO2 emissions due to excessive manufacturing of replacement second storage batteries 2 can be reduced. ２ Emissions can be reduced.

[0062] The information processing device 1 can tally up the number of first power storage devices 2 that have reached each SOH band by repeatedly communicating with at least one of the multiple vehicles 3A and the multiple charging devices 5 that charge the first power storage devices 2 during the life cycle of the first power storage devices 2. The information processing device 1 can tally up the number of first power storage elements 2 that have been replaced in each SOH band by acquiring replacement information from a computer in a maintenance shop 6. The information processing device 1 can then calculate the first replacement probability for each SOH band based on the respective tallying results (the number of first power storage devices 2 that have reached the SOH band and the number of first power storage devices 2 that have been replaced in the SOH band).

[0063] According to the information processing device 1, the number of second storage devices 2 required for replacement can be more accurately predicted by adding the number of second storage devices 2 to be replaced due to a failure (second total value) to the number of second storage devices 2 predicted based on the number of second storage elements 2 for each SOH band and the first replacement probability (first total value).

[0064] According to the information processing device 1, for example, if the number of power storage devices 2 required as replacements is provided to the manufacturer 7 of the second power storage devices 2, the manufacturer 7 can adjust the number of units to be manufactured accordingly, thereby preventing excessive production of replacement second power storage devices 2. If multiple manufacturers 7 manufacture the second power storage devices 2, the manufacturers 7 can share information and adjust the number of units to be manufactured among themselves, thereby preventing excessive production of replacement second power storage devices 2.

[0065] The recipient may be a recycling company 9 that recycles the replaced second storage power devices 2 or a reuse company 8 that reuses the replaced second storage power devices 2. If the number of second storage power devices 2 predicted to be replaced due to deterioration (i.e., the first total value) is provided to the recycling company 9, the recycling company 9 can predict the number of second storage power devices 2 that will be supplied in the future, thereby improving the convenience of the recycling company 9. Similarly, if the number of second storage power devices 2 predicted to be replaced due to failure (i.e., the second total value) is provided to the reuse company 8, the reuse company 8 can predict the number of second storage power devices 2 that will be supplied in the future, thereby improving the convenience of the reuse company 8.

[0066] <Second embodiment> A second embodiment will be described with reference to Figures 9 to 11. The first embodiment described above illustrates the case of predicting the number of second power storage devices 2 that will be required as replacements from the present time onwards. In contrast, in the second embodiment, the number of second power storage devices 2 that will be required as replacements from the time a predetermined time has elapsed from the present time (in other words, after a predetermined time has passed) is predicted. Here, the predetermined time is described as one year.

[0067] A specific description will be given with reference to Table 34 shown in Fig. 9. Table 34 includes the SOH band, the number of second storage power devices 2 currently on the market, the number of second storage power devices 2 that will reach that SOH band in the market one year from now, a first replacement probability (probability of replacement due to deterioration) of the first storage power device 2, and a predicted value of the number of second storage power devices 2 that will be replaced one year from now. The information processing device 1 predicts the number of second storage power devices 2 that will reach that SOH band in the market one year from now based on the number of second storage power devices 2 currently on the market and the SOH operational deterioration characteristics described next.

[0068] The operational degradation characteristics of the first storage battery 2 will be described with reference to Fig. 10. The operational degradation refers to the progressive decline in SOH (in other words, the progressive deterioration) that accompanies the operation of the first storage battery 2. Factors that cause the progressive decline in SOH that accompanies operation include aging degradation over time and current degradation that accompanies current application. The operational degradation characteristics refer to information that represents the correspondence relationship between SOH and time.

[0069] 10, the horizontal axis represents time and the vertical axis represents SOH. SOH decreases over time. However, the manner in which it decreases differs depending on the model of the storage battery 2. In the case of the first storage battery 2, the rate of decrease in SOH is relatively large from the point when the elapsed time is zero (i.e., the point when the storage battery 2 is not yet deteriorated) until one year later, and thereafter the rate of decrease per year becomes smaller.

[0070] Even if the storage devices 2 have the same SOH band, the SOH band will not necessarily remain the same one year from now. For example, among storage devices 2 with an SOH of 95 to 90%, storage devices 2 with an SOH close to 95% will remain in the 95 to 90% SOH band even one year from now, while storage devices 2 close to 90% may reach the 90 to 85% SOH band after one year. The percentage of storage devices 2 in a certain SOH band that will remain in that SOH band after one year and the percentage that will reach a lower SOH band can be determined from the shape of the graph of the operational degradation characteristics.

[0071] 10, it is assumed that all storage devices 2 in the 100-95% SOH band will reach the 95-90% SOH band after one year. It is also assumed that one-quarter of the storage devices 2 in the 95-90% SOH band will remain in the 95-90% SOH band after one year, and three-quarters will reach the 90-85% SOH band.

[0072] In the example shown in Table 34, the number of second storage power devices 2 currently on the market with an SOH band of 100 to 95% is 1,000. Since the second storage power devices 2 with an SOH band of 100 to 95% will all reach an SOH band of 95 to 90% after one year, all 1,000 second storage power devices 2 will reach an SOH band of 95 to 90% after one year.

[0073] In the example shown in Table 34, there are currently 2,000 second storage battery devices 2 in the 95-90% SOH band on the market. One-quarter of the second storage battery devices 2 in the 95-90% SOH band will remain in the 95-90% SOH band even one year from now, meaning that 500 devices (= 2,000 x 1 / 4) will remain in the 95-90% SOH band. Therefore, the number of devices in the 95-90% SOH band one year from now is predicted to be 1,500 devices (= 1,000 + 500). Similar predictions are made for the number of devices in the other SOH bands one year from now.

[0074] Here, the number of units in the 100 to 95% SOH band one year from now is set to 500 units, which means that 500 second power storage devices 2 will be newly supplied to the market within one year. The number of second power storage devices 2 that will be newly supplied within one year can be known from the number of vehicles 3 manufactured.

[0075] The reason why the number of second storage devices 2 one year from now is predicted using the operational deterioration characteristics of the first storage device 2 rather than the operational deterioration characteristics of the second storage device 2 is that the first storage device 2 was supplied to the market before the second storage device 2, and therefore data on operational deterioration characteristics has been accumulated.

[0076] FIG. 11A shows, in a histogram, the number of second power storage devices 2 currently on the market as shown in FIG. 9, and FIG. 11B shows, in a histogram, the number one year from now.

[0077] As shown in Table 34, the information processing device 1 obtains a predicted number of replacement units by multiplying the number of second storage batteries 2 that will reach the SOH band in the market one year from now by the first replacement probability of the first storage batteries 2, and then sums up the obtained predicted number of replacement units to predict the number of second storage batteries 2 that will need to be replaced one year from now due to deterioration. Hereinafter, the total sum of the obtained predicted number of replacement units will be referred to as the third total value.

[0078] It is also possible to predict the number of second storage power devices 2 that will be replaced due to a failure one year from now. Specifically, by adding one year to the elapsed time since the start of use of each second storage power device 2, it is possible to determine which elapsed time period the second storage power device 2 will belong to one year from now, and by aggregating the number of second storage power devices 2 for each elapsed time period, it is possible to predict the number for each elapsed time period one year from now. Then, by multiplying the number of second storage power devices 2 for each elapsed time period by the second replacement probability described above and summing the multiplication results, it is possible to predict the number of second storage power devices 2 that will be replaced due to a failure one year from now.

[0079] According to the information processing device 1 of the second embodiment, the number of second storage devices 2 one year from now can be predicted for each SOH band based on the operational deterioration characteristics of the first storage devices 2 and the number of second storage devices 2 for each SOH band. Furthermore, according to the information processing device 1, the number of second storage devices 2 that will be required for replacement one year from now can be predicted based on the number of second storage devices 2 one year from now for each SOH band and the first replacement probability of the first storage devices 2.

[0080] That is, the information processing device 1 can predict not only the number of second storage power devices 2 that will be needed as replacements, but also the time when they will be needed. For example, by predicting the number of second storage power devices 2 that will be replaced from the present time onwards, and predicting the number of second storage power devices 2 that will be replaced one year from now, the difference can be predicted as the number of second storage power devices 2 that will be replaced from the present time until one year from now. Similarly, it is also possible to predict the number of second storage power devices 2 that will be replaced from one year from now until one year after that. Therefore, the information processing device 1 can manufacture the required number of replacement second storage power devices 2 at the required time.

[0081] Third Embodiment A third embodiment will be described with reference to Fig. 12. In the third embodiment, the number of first power storage devices 2 replaced due to deterioration in each SOH band is calculated from the cumulative replacement probability with respect to the number of units supplied to the market. Here, the number of units supplied to the market is assumed to be 5,000, the same as in the first embodiment.

[0082] Taking the 80 to 75% SOH band as an example, in the example shown in Figure 4 described above, the number of units replaced in each SOH band from 80 to 75% is as follows: 100 to 95% SOH band = 0 units 95 to 90% SOH band = 1 unit 90 to 85% SOH band = 3 units 85 to 80% SOH band = 2 units 80 to 75% SOH band = 50 units Therefore, as shown in Table 35 in Figure 12, the cumulative number of first power storage devices 2 that have been replaced due to deterioration up to the 80 to 75% SOH band is 56.

[0083] 12 is a value obtained by dividing the cumulative number of first power storage devices 2 that have been replaced due to deterioration up to each SOH band by the number of devices available in the market. For example, in the case of an SOH band of 80 to 75%, the cumulative replacement probability is 1.12% (= 56 / 5000 × 100%).

[0084] The number of first storage power devices 2 replaced due to deterioration in each SOH band is calculated by multiplying the market supply quantity by the difference between the cumulative replacement probability of that SOH band and the cumulative replacement probability of the SOH band immediately preceding that SOH band. For example, in the case of an SOH band of 65 to 60%, the number of first storage power devices 2 replaced due to deterioration can be calculated using the following formulas 1 and 2: Difference in cumulative replacement probability = 81.12% - 41.12% = 40% ... formula 1 Number of first storage power devices 2 replaced due to deterioration = 5000 units x 40% = 2000 units ... formula 2

[0085] As a result, the number of first power storage devices 2 replaced due to deterioration in the 65 to 60% SOH band is the same as the number shown in Figure 4. In other respects, the third embodiment is substantially the same as the first and second embodiments.

[0086] <Other Embodiments> The present invention is not limited to the embodiments described above and illustrated in the drawings, and the following embodiments, for example, are also included within the technical scope of the present invention.

[0087] (1) In the above embodiment, the power storage device 2 is described as being mounted on the vehicle 3, but the power storage device 2 is not limited to this. For example, the power storage device 2 may be a power storage device used in a UPS (uninterruptible power supply), a power storage facility that stores power generated by natural energy, a power storage facility that stores power generated by grid power for peak shifting, or the like.

[0088] (2) In the above embodiment, the first storage battery 2 (in other words, the first storage element 2A) and the second storage battery 2 (in other words, the second storage element 2A) are the same product (i.e., the same type). In contrast, the second storage battery 2 may be a different product from the first storage battery 2 as long as the second storage battery 2 and the first storage battery 2 have similar operational degradation characteristics. Similarity in operational degradation characteristics will be described below.

[0089] The phrase "the operational degradation characteristics are similar" means, for example, that the difference between the SOH of the first storage device 2 at a given time after the first storage device 2 begins to be used and the SOH of the second storage device 2 at a time after the same time after the second storage device 2 begins to be used is 5% or less of the SOH of the first storage device 2 at that time. 5% is just an example, and the percentage or less that constitutes similarity can be determined appropriately. However, in order to accurately predict the number of second storage devices 2, a difference of 5% or less is preferable, and 3% or less is more preferable.

[0090] (3) In the above embodiment, the number of energy storage devices 2 is predicted as the number of energy storage elements 2A. Since one energy storage device 2 includes 12 energy storage elements 2A, the number of energy storage elements 2A is calculated by multiplying the number of energy storage devices 2 by 12. The unit for counting the number of energy storage elements 2A can be determined arbitrarily. For example, the number of energy storage elements 2A may be counted in terms of the number of packs.

[0091] (4) In the above embodiment, the number of power storage devices 2 that will be replaced due to a failure is also predicted. However, the number of power storage devices 2 that will be replaced due to a failure does not have to be predicted.

[0092] (5) In the above embodiment, the energy storage element 2A is described as a lithium ion secondary battery, but the energy storage element 2A is not limited to this. For example, the energy storage element 2A may be a capacitor that involves an electrochemical reaction.

[0093] 1: Information processing device (an example of a computer) 2A: Power storage element (the power storage element included in the first power storage device is an example of a first power storage element, and the power storage element included in the second power storage device is an example of a second power storage element) 3A: Vehicle (an example of a first type of equipment) 3B: Vehicle (an example of a second type of equipment) 5: Charging device 7: Manufacturer (an example of a recipient) 8: Reuse company (an example of a recipient) 9: Recycle company (an example of a recipient) 10: Processing unit 11: Storage unit 14: Communication unit

Claims

1. An information processing device comprising: a memory unit that stores a first replacement probability of replacing a first storage element used in each of a plurality of first-type devices for each deterioration stage obtained by dividing the deterioration state of a storage element into a plurality of stages; a processing unit; and a communication unit, wherein the processing unit communicates with at least one of a plurality of second-type devices that use a second storage element of the same type as the first storage element or a second storage element having similar operational deterioration characteristics to the first storage element, and a plurality of charging devices that charge the second storage elements, to tally up the number of the second storage elements for each deterioration stage, and predict the number of the second storage elements that will be required for replacement based on the number of the second storage elements for each deterioration stage and the first replacement probability.

2. An information processing device according to claim 1, wherein the processing unit communicates with at least one of a plurality of the first type of equipment and a plurality of charging devices that charge the first storage elements during the life cycle of the first storage elements to tally up the number of the first storage elements that have reached each of the deterioration stages; acquires replacement information indicating the deterioration stage when the first storage elements are replaced via the communication unit from an external device to which the replacement information is input, tallying up, for each deterioration stage, the number of the first storage elements that have been replaced at that deterioration stage based on the replacement information; calculates, for each deterioration stage, the first replacement probability of the first storage elements based on each tallying result; and stores the calculated first replacement probability in the memory unit.

3. An information processing device according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the storage unit further stores a second replacement probability of the first storage element being replaced due to a failure for each elapsed time period, which is defined by dividing the time elapsed from when use of the first storage element began into regular time intervals; the processing unit communicates with at least one of a plurality of the second type devices and a plurality of the charging devices that charge the second storage elements, and tallys up the number of the second storage elements that have reached each elapsed time period; predicts the number of the second storage elements that will be replaced due to a failure based on the number of the second storage devices for each elapsed time period and the second replacement probability; and predicts the number of the second storage elements that will be required for replacement by adding the number of the second storage elements that will be replaced due to a failure to the number of the second storage elements predicted based on the number of the second storage elements for each degradation stage and the first replacement probability.

4. An information processing device according to claim 1 or claim 2, wherein the processing unit predicts, for each degradation stage, the number of second storage elements that will reach that degradation stage after a predetermined time based on the operational deterioration characteristics of the first storage elements and the number of second storage elements for each degradation stage, and predicts the number of second storage elements that will be required for replacement after the predetermined time based on the number of second storage elements for each degradation stage after the predetermined time and the first replacement probability.

5. An information processing device according to claim 1 or claim 2, wherein the memory unit further stores a second replacement probability of the first storage element being replaced due to a failure for each elapsed time period, which is defined by dividing the elapsed time from when use of the first storage element began into regular time intervals; the processing unit communicates with at least one of a plurality of the second type of equipment and a plurality of the charging devices that charge the second storage elements, and tallyes the number of the second storage elements that belong to each elapsed time period after a predetermined time has elapsed; and predicts the number of the second storage elements that will be replaced due to a failure after the predetermined time period based on the number of second storage devices that belong to each elapsed time period and the second replacement probability after the predetermined time period.

6. An information processing device comprising: a memory unit that stores, for each deterioration stage obtained by dividing the deterioration state of a storage element into a plurality of stages, a cumulative replacement probability based on the cumulative number of first storage elements used in each of a plurality of first type devices that have been replaced due to deterioration up to each deterioration stage; a processing unit; and a communication unit, wherein the processing unit communicates with at least one of a plurality of second type devices that use second storage elements of the same type as the first storage elements or second storage elements whose operational deterioration characteristics are similar to those of the first storage elements, and a plurality of charging devices that charge the second storage elements, to tally up the number of the second storage elements for each deterioration stage, and predicts the number of the second storage elements required for replacement based on the number of the second storage elements for each deterioration stage and the cumulative replacement probability.

7. An information processing device according to claim 6, wherein the processing unit communicates with at least one of a plurality of the first type devices and a plurality of charging devices that charge the first storage element during the life cycle of the first storage element, acquires replacement information indicating the deterioration stage when the first storage element is replaced via the communication unit from an external device to which the replacement information indicating the deterioration stage when the first storage element is replaced is input, tallying up, for each deterioration stage, the cumulative number of the first storage elements that have been replaced up to that deterioration stage based on the replacement information, and, for each deterioration stage, calculates a cumulative replacement probability of the first storage element based on the market supply number of first storage elements and the tallying result, and stores the calculated cumulative replacement probability in the memory unit.

8. An information processing device according to claim 1, 2, 6 or 7, wherein the processing unit provides the number of second storage elements required for replacement to a predetermined destination via the communication unit.

9. A prediction method, comprising: an information processing device that divides the deterioration state of a storage element into a plurality of stages and stores in a memory unit a first replacement probability of replacing a first storage element used in each of a plurality of first-type devices for each of the plurality of deterioration stages; communicates with at least one of a plurality of second-type devices that use a second storage element of the same type as the first storage element or a second storage element having operational deterioration characteristics similar to the first storage element, and a plurality of charging devices that charge the second storage elements, to tally the number of the second storage elements for each of the deterioration stages; and predicts the number of the second storage elements that will be required for replacement based on the number of the second storage elements for each of the deterioration stages and the first replacement probability.

10. A prediction program that causes a computer to execute the following steps: a process of storing in a memory unit a first replacement probability of replacing a first storage element used in each of a plurality of first-type devices for each deterioration stage obtained by dividing the deterioration state of a storage element into a plurality of stages; a process of communicating with at least one of a plurality of second-type devices that use a second storage element of the same type as the first storage element or a second storage element whose operational deterioration characteristics are similar to those of the first storage element, and a plurality of charging devices that charge the second storage elements, and tallying up the number of the second storage elements for each deterioration stage; and a process of predicting the number of the second storage elements that will be required for replacement based on the number of the second storage elements for each deterioration stage and the first replacement probability.

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