Facility designing apparatus and facility designing method

Abstract

A facility designing apparatus (1) comprises: a data storage unit (2) that stores time-series data of an observed value of natural energy or a simulated value of the observed value; a period estimation unit (3) that estimates, on the basis of the time-series data of the observed value or the simulated value, a minimum power generation amount period of power generation facilities that use natural energy in each of a plurality of time units; and a facility selection unit (4) that selects, on the basis of the time-series data of the observed value or the simulated value in the minimum power generation amount period in each of the plurality of time units, a power generation facility and a power storage facility that stores power generated by the power generation facility.

Description

Facility design device and facility design method

[0001] The present disclosure relates to a facility design device and a facility design method.

[0002] Buildings such as buildings and condominiums are increasingly being equipped with stand-alone operation facilities in case commercial power is interrupted. The design of stand-alone operation facilities that combine renewable energy generation with storage batteries requires prior simulation of renewable energy power generation. However, determining the weather patterns to use in the simulation can be difficult. For example, if a design is made using the monthly average solar radiation, which correlates with solar power generation, the solar radiation will be the average between good and bad weather, resulting in an underdesign where there is insufficient power when attempting stand-alone operation during bad weather. Conversely, blindly applying a safety factor for fear of such a scenario can result in an overdesign.

[0003] Patent Document 1 discloses a method for determining the capacity of a storage battery using the maximum number of consecutive days D that does not exceed a reference daily total global solar radiation amount S.

[0004] Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2023-41076

[0005] The method described in Patent Document 1 is simple, but it cannot handle a pattern in which there are two consecutive rainy days below the standard value, followed by one rainy day above the standard value and then another rainy day below the standard value, such as sunny, rainy, rainy, cloudy, rainy, etc. If standalone operation is performed in equipment designed according to such weather patterns, it is predicted that the remaining battery power will be depleted.

[0006] Therefore, an object of the present disclosure is to provide an equipment design device and an equipment design method that can provide a stable power supply even in bad weather and can design equipment that is not excessively large.

[0007] The facility design device disclosed herein includes a data storage unit that stores time series data of observed values ​​of natural energy, a period estimation unit that estimates a minimum power generation period of a power generation facility that uses natural energy in each of a plurality of time units based on the time series data of observed values ​​or simulated values ​​that simulate the observed values, and a facility selection unit that selects a power generation facility and a storage facility that stores electricity generated by the power generation facility based on the time series data of observed values ​​or simulated values ​​of the minimum power generation period in each of the plurality of time units.

[0008] According to the present disclosure, it is possible to design facilities that can provide a stable supply of power even in bad weather, without excessively increasing the power supply.

[0009] FIG. 1 is a diagram showing the configuration of a facility design device 1 according to a first embodiment. FIG. 2 is a diagram for explaining an example of applying a seven-day window function. FIG. 3 is a diagram for explaining an example of applying a two-day window function. FIG. 4 is a flowchart showing the procedure of a facility design method according to the first embodiment. FIG. 5 is a diagram showing the configuration of a facility design device 1A according to a second embodiment. FIG. 6 is a flowchart showing the procedure of a facility design method according to the second embodiment. FIG. 7 is a diagram showing the configuration of a facility design device 1B according to a third embodiment. FIG. 8 is a diagram for explaining an example of a first minimum power generation amount period and a second minimum power generation amount period. FIG. 9 is a flowchart showing the procedure of a facility design method according to the third embodiment. FIG.

[0010] Hereinafter, embodiments will be described with reference to the drawings. Embodiment 1. Fig. 1 is a diagram showing the configuration of an equipment design device 1 according to embodiment 1. The equipment design device 1 includes a data storage unit 2, a period estimation unit 3, an equipment selection unit 4, an input device 5, and a display device 6.

[0011] The input device 5 receives input from a facility designer (user). The display device 6 displays the selected facility and the like to the user.

[0012] The data storage unit 2 stores time-series data of hourly observation values ​​of natural energy, such as solar radiation, wind speed, or geothermal energy, for each location for a predetermined period. The predetermined period is, for example, one year. Natural energy is also renewable energy. The observation values ​​are data observed in the past.

[0013] The period estimation unit 3 estimates the minimum power generation period of a power generation facility that utilizes natural energy for each of multiple time units based on the time series data of observed values ​​of natural energy stored in the data storage unit 2. The minimum power generation period represents a period of unfavorable weather, such as a series of days with heavy rainfall, slow wind speed, or low geothermal energy. The power generation facility may be a solar power generation facility, a wind power generation facility, or a geothermal power generation facility. The period estimation unit 3 estimates the period with the smallest total or average value of the observed values ​​in each of the multiple time units as the minimum power generation period. For example, the multiple time units may be the first to Nth days. The period estimation unit 3 scans the time series data of the observed values ​​with a window function for the i-th day and estimates the period with the smallest total or average value as the minimum power generation period MT(i) for the i-th day, i.e., the worst-case weather scenario. i = 1 to N, where N is the number of days in the business continuity plan (BCP).

[0014] 2 is a diagram illustrating an example of applying a seven-day window function. By shifting the seven-day window function, the period with the lowest total or average solar radiation amount over seven days is estimated as the seven-day minimum power generation period MT(7).

[0015] 3 is a diagram illustrating an example of applying a two-day window function. By shifting the two-day window function, the period with the lowest total or average solar radiation amount over two days is estimated as the two-day minimum power generation period MT(2).

[0016] The facility selection unit 4 selects a power generation facility and a power storage facility that stores the power generated by the power generation facility, based on time-series data of observed values ​​during a minimum power generation period in each of a plurality of time units. The facility selection unit 4 determines the capacity of the power generation facility, the output of the power storage facility, and the output of the power storage facility that minimize an objective function, which is the sum of the cost of the power generation facility and the cost of the power storage facility, based on the expected demand and the power generation performance value, under the constraint that the remaining capacity of the power storage facility does not become zero during the minimum power generation period in units of 1st to Nth days.

[0017] The expected demand can be set, for example, based on customer requests. The power generation performance value is a coefficient for converting solar radiation, wind speed, or geothermal heat into power generation.

[0018] When the power generation facility capacity (kW) is IC1, the power generation facility unit cost is UC1, the storage facility output (kW) is IC2, the storage facility output unit cost is UC2, the storage facility capacity (kWh) is IC3, and the storage facility capacity unit cost is UC3, the objective function f is expressed by the following equation.

[0019] f = IC1 × UC1 + IC2 × UC2 + IC3 × UC3 (1) The facility selection unit 4 determines the power generation facility capacity IC1, the power storage facility output IC2, and the power storage facility capacity IC3 that minimize the objective function f under the following constraint conditions.

[0020] (1) The demand for electricity and the supply of electricity (the sum of the amount of electricity generated and the input and output of the storage facility) must match every hour.

[0021] (2) During the minimum power generation period of the i-th day (i = 1 to N), the remaining battery charge does not become 0 even for a moment.

[0022] This calculation can be performed using linear programming or mixed integer linear programming. Which scenario is most difficult for autonomous operation depends on factors such as the balance between the capacities of the power generation equipment and the battery storage equipment. According to this embodiment, it is possible to determine the combination of equipment that can continue to supply power in all scenarios while minimizing costs.

[0023] 4 is a flowchart showing the procedure of the facility design method in embodiment 1. In step S101, the input device 5 accepts an input of the number of BCP days N from the user.

[0024] In step S102 , the period estimation unit 3 reads out the time series data of the observed value of natural energy stored in the data storage unit 2 .

[0025] In step S103, the period estimation unit 3 estimates the period with the smallest total or average value of the observed values ​​in each time unit from the first day to the Nth day as the minimum power generation period.

[0026] In step S104, the equipment selection unit 4 determines the capacity of the power generation equipment, the output of the power storage equipment, and the output of the power storage equipment that minimizes the objective function, which is the sum of the cost of the power generation equipment and the cost of the power storage equipment, based on the expected demand and power generation performance value, under the constraint that the remaining capacity of the power storage equipment does not become zero during the minimum power generation period in units of 1st to Nth days.

[0027] If a weather pattern is extracted using a single window function with the number of BCP days N, it will be impossible to extract a pattern in which the weather conditions are severe in the first half of the BCP schedule and improve in the second half. In this embodiment, by narrowing the window function to (N-1), (N-2), and so on, it is possible to extract schedules with even more severe conditions.

[0028] According to this embodiment, by simply determining the number of BCP days, it is possible to extract severe weather patterns and determine a reasonable storage battery capacity. Furthermore, according to this embodiment, it is not necessary to define the standard daily total global solar radiation S proposed in Patent Document 1, which has the effect of reducing the number of variables.

[0029] Second Embodiment The relationship between wind speed and wind power generation is nonlinear. For example, wind power generation is proportional to the cube of wind speed. Therefore, even if the total or average observed values ​​are the same, the power generation amount will differ. In this embodiment, to more accurately simulate actual conditions, the observed values ​​of renewable energy are converted into power values ​​(power generation amount) of the power generation facility, and the converted power generation amount is used to estimate the minimum power generation period.

[0030] 5 is a diagram showing the configuration of a facility design device 1A according to embodiment 2. Facility design device 1A according to embodiment 2 differs from facility design device 1 according to embodiment 1 in that facility design device 1A according to embodiment 2 includes a conversion unit 7A, and includes a period estimation unit 3A and a facility selection unit 4A instead of the period estimation unit 3 and the facility selection unit 4.

[0031] The conversion unit 7A converts the observed value of natural energy into the power value of the power generation facility using a predetermined function. For example, the conversion unit 7A converts the amount of solar radiation into the amount of power generated by a solar panel by multiplying it by a certain coefficient, or converts the amount of power generated by a wind power generation facility by cubing the wind speed.

[0032] The period estimation unit 3A estimates, as the minimum power generation period, the period in which the total or average value of the power values, rather than the observed value, is the smallest in each of the multiple time units.

[0033] The facility selection unit 4A selects a power generation facility and a power storage facility that stores the power generated by the power generation facility, based on time-series data of power values ​​during the minimum power generation period in each of a plurality of time units.

[0034] 6 is a flowchart showing the procedure of the facility design method of embodiment 2. In step S201, the input device 5 accepts an input of the number of BCP days N from the user.

[0035] In step S202, the conversion unit 7A reads out the time series data of the observed value of natural energy stored in the data storage unit 2.

[0036] In step S203, the conversion unit 7A converts the observed value of natural energy into a power value of the power generation facility using a predetermined function.

[0037] In step S204, the period estimation unit 3A estimates the period with the smallest total or average power value in each time unit from the first day to the Nth day as the minimum power generation period.

[0038] In step S205, the equipment selection unit 4A determines the capacity of the power generation equipment, the output of the power storage equipment, and the output of the power storage equipment based on the expected demand, so that the objective function, which is the sum of the cost of the power generation equipment and the cost of the power storage equipment, is minimized, under the constraint that the remaining capacity of the power storage equipment does not become zero during the minimum power generation period in units of 1st to Nth days.

[0039] The relationship between meteorological observation values ​​and power generation capacity may be nonlinear due to the generator characteristics. According to this embodiment, by providing a conversion unit, this nonlinearity can be incorporated, thereby preventing over- or under-designing of the facility.

[0040] Embodiment 3. Figure 7 is a diagram showing the configuration of a facility design device 1B according to embodiment 3. Facility design device 1B according to embodiment 3 differs from facility design device 1 according to embodiment 1 in that facility design device 1B according to embodiment 3 includes a data storage unit 2B, a period estimation unit 3B, and a facility selection unit 4B instead of the data storage unit 2, the period estimation unit 3, and the facility selection unit 4.

[0041] The data storage unit 2B stores, for each location, time-series data of first observation values ​​of the first renewable energy and second observation values ​​of the second renewable energy for each hour for a predetermined period. The predetermined period is, for example, one year. The first renewable energy and the second renewable energy are, for example, solar radiation, wind speed, or geothermal energy, and the first renewable energy and the second renewable energy are different types.

[0042] The period estimation unit 3B estimates a first minimum power generation period of a first power generation facility that utilizes a first renewable energy source in each of a plurality of time units based on the time series data of the first observation value. The period estimation unit 3B estimates a second minimum power generation period of a second power generation facility that utilizes a second renewable energy source in each of a plurality of time units based on the time series data of the second observation value. The first power generation facility and the second power generation facility are solar power generation facility, wind power generation facility, geothermal power generation facility, or the like, and the first power generation facility and the second power generation facility are different types.

[0043] The period estimation unit 3B estimates the period in which the total or average value of the first observation values ​​is the smallest in each of a plurality of time units as the first minimum power generation period, and estimates the period in which the total or average value of the second observation values ​​is the smallest as the second minimum power generation period. For example, the plurality of time units may be the first to Nth days. The period estimation unit 3B scans the time series data of the first observation values ​​using a window function for the i-th day and estimates the period in which the total or average value is the smallest as the first minimum power generation period for the i-th day, i.e., the first worst weather scenario. The period estimation unit 3B scans the time series data of the second observation values ​​using a window function for the i-th day and estimates the period in which the total or average value is the smallest as the second minimum power generation period for the i-th day, i.e., the second worst weather scenario. i = 1 to N, where N is the number of days in a business continuity plan (BCP).

[0044] FIG. 8 is a diagram illustrating an example of a first minimum power generation period and a second minimum power generation period. In this example, the first renewable energy is solar radiation, and the second renewable energy is wind speed. The period estimation unit 3B estimates a seven-day first minimum power generation period MTA(7) by scanning time series data of solar radiation, which is a first observation value, using a seven-day window function. The period estimation unit 3B estimates a seven-day second minimum power generation period MTB(7) by scanning time series data of wind speed, which is a second observation value, using a seven-day window function. In the following calculations for facility selection, in the first minimum power generation period MTA(7), not only data of the first observation value (solar radiation) but also data of the second observation value (wind speed) are used, and in the second minimum power generation period MTB(7), not only data of the second observation value (wind speed) but also data of the first observation value (solar radiation) are used.

[0045] The equipment selection unit 4B selects the first power generation equipment, the second power generation equipment, and a storage equipment for storing the electricity generated by the first power generation equipment and the second power generation equipment, based on the time series data of the first observation value and the time series data of the second observation value during the first minimum power generation period in each of the multiple time units, and the time series data of the first observation value and the time series data of the second observation value during the second minimum power generation period in each of the multiple time units.

[0046] The facility selection unit 4B determines the capacity of the first power generation facility, the capacity of the second power generation facility, the output of the power storage facility, and the output of the power storage facility, based on the expected demand and power generation performance value, so as to minimize an objective function that is the sum of the cost of the first power generation facility, the cost of the second power generation facility, and the cost of the power storage facility, under the constraint that the remaining capacity of the power storage facility does not become 0, during the first minimum power generation period MTA(i) and the second minimum power generation period MTB(i) in units of 1 to N days, where i=1 to N.

[0047] When the first power generation equipment capacity (kW) is ID1, the first power generation equipment unit cost is UD1, the second power generation equipment capacity (kW) is ID2, the second power generation equipment unit cost is UD2, the power storage equipment output (kW) is ID3, the power storage equipment output unit cost is UD3, the power storage equipment capacity (kWh) is ID4, and the power storage equipment capacity unit cost is UD4, the objective function f2 is expressed by the following equation.

[0048] f2=ID1×UD1+ID2×UD2+ID3×UD3+ID4×UD4 (2) The facility selection unit 4B determines the first power generation facility capacity ID1, the second power generation facility capacity ID2, the power storage facility output ID3, and the power storage facility capacity ID4 that minimize the objective function f2 under the following constraint conditions.

[0049] (1) The demand for electricity and the supply of electricity (the sum of the power generation amount of the first power generation facility, the power generation amount of the second power generation facility, and the input / output of the power storage facility) must match every hour.

[0050] (2) The remaining battery charge does not become zero even for an instant during the first minimum power generation period MTA(i) and the second minimum power generation period MTB(i) (i = 1 to N) of the i-th day.

[0051] This calculation can be performed using linear programming or mixed integer linear programming. Figure 9 is a flowchart showing the procedure of the facility design method according to the third embodiment.

[0052] In step S301, the input device 5 accepts an input of the number of BCP days N from the user.

[0053] In step S302, period estimation unit 3B reads out the time series data of the first observation value of the first renewable energy and the time series data of the second observation value of the second renewable energy stored in data storage unit 2B.

[0054] In step S303, the period estimation unit 3B scans the time series data of the first observation value with a window function for the i-th day, and estimates the period with the lowest total value or average value as the first minimum power generation period for the i-th day. The period estimation unit 3B scans the time series data of the second observation value with a window function for the i-th day, and estimates the period with the lowest total value or average value as the second minimum power generation period for the i-th day, where i = 1 to N.

[0055] In step S304, the facility selection unit 4B determines the capacity of the first power generation facility, the capacity of the second power generation facility, the output of the power storage facility, and the output of the power storage facility, based on the expected demand and the power generation performance value, so as to minimize an objective function that is the sum of the cost of the first power generation facility, the cost of the second power generation facility, and the cost of the power storage facility, under the constraint that the remaining capacity of the power storage facility does not become 0 during the first minimum power generation period MTA(i) and the second minimum power generation period MTB(i) in units of 1 to N days, where i=1 to N.

[0056] For example, solar power generation and wind power generation have a complementary relationship, and the timing of the worst-case scenario for solar power generation and the worst-case scenario for wind power generation do not necessarily coincide. Therefore, if a scenario is assumed in which the worst-case scenario for solar power generation and the worst-case scenario for wind power generation occur simultaneously, this would be an assumption of a worse situation than reality, leading to overdesign of the isolated operation facility.

[0057] In this embodiment, by assuming a scenario for one power generation source in accordance with the timing when the other power generation source is in the worst case, it is possible to avoid over-designing the equipment.

[0058] The facility design devices described in the first to third embodiments can be configured to perform the corresponding operations using digital circuit hardware or software. When the facility design device is realized using software, the facility design device can include, for example, a processor 8 and a memory 9 connected by a bus 20, as shown in Figure 10, and the processor 8 can execute a program stored in the memory 9.

[0059] Modifications In the above-described embodiment, observed values ​​of natural energy (data observed in the past) are used, but simulated values ​​that simulate observed values ​​may be used instead of observed values. By using simulated values, it is possible to create a long period of consecutive bad weather days, making it possible to design equipment based on weather patterns that are more severe than past weather patterns. The simulated values ​​may also be random.

[0060] The embodiments disclosed herein should be considered to be illustrative in all respects and not restrictive. The scope of the present invention is defined by the claims, not by the above description, and is intended to include all modifications within the meaning and scope of the claims.

[0061] 1, 1A, 1B Facility design device, 2, 2B Data storage unit, 3, 3A, 3B Period estimation unit, 4, 4A, 4B Facility selection unit, 5 Input device, 6 Display device, 7A Conversion unit, 8 Processor, 9 Memory, 20 Bus

Claims

1. A facility design device comprising: a data storage unit that stores time series data of observed values ​​of natural energy or simulated values ​​that simulate the observed values; a period estimation unit that estimates a minimum power generation period of a power generation facility that uses the natural energy in each of a plurality of time units based on the time series data of the observed values ​​or the simulated values; and a facility selection unit that selects the power generation facility and a storage facility that stores the electricity generated by the power generation facility based on the time series data of the observed values ​​or the simulated values ​​in the minimum power generation period in each of the plurality of time units.

2. The equipment design device according to claim 1, wherein the period estimation unit estimates the period in which the total or average value of the observed values ​​or the total or average value of the simulated values ​​is the smallest in each of a plurality of time units as the minimum power generation period.

3. The facility design device according to claim 1, further comprising a conversion unit that converts the observed value or the simulated value of the natural energy into a power value of the power generation facility, and the period estimation unit estimates the period in which the total or average value of the power values ​​is the smallest in each of a plurality of time units as the minimum power generation period.

4. The facility design device according to claim 1, wherein the period estimation unit estimates the period in which the total or average of the observed values ​​or the total or average of the simulated values ​​is the smallest in each unit of 1st to Nth days as the minimum power generation period.

5. The facility design device according to claim 4, wherein the facility selection unit determines the capacity of the power generation facility, the output of the power storage facility, and the capacity of the power storage facility so that an objective function, which is the sum of the cost of the power generation facility and the cost of the power storage facility, is minimized based on expected demand, under the constraint that the remaining capacity of the power storage facility does not become zero during the minimum power generation period in units of the 1st to Nth days.

6. The facility design device according to any one of claims 1 to 5, wherein the observed value of natural energy is solar radiation or wind speed.

7. The data storage unit stores time series data of a first observed value of a first renewable energy or a first simulated value simulating the first observed value, and a second observed value of a second renewable energy or a second simulated value simulating the second observed value; the period estimation unit estimates a first minimum power generation period of a first power generation facility that utilizes the first renewable energy in each of a plurality of time units based on the time series data of the first observed value or the first simulated value, and estimates a second minimum power generation period of a second power generation facility that utilizes the second renewable energy in each of a plurality of time units based on the time series data of the second observed value or the second simulated value; 7. The facility design device according to claim 1, wherein the facility selection unit selects the first power generation facility, the second power generation facility, and a power storage facility that stores power generated by the first power generation facility and the second power generation facility, based on time series data of the first observed value or the first simulated value and the second observed value or the second simulated value during the first minimum power generation amount period in each of the plurality of time units, and time series data of the first observed value or the first simulated value and the second observed value or the second simulated value during the second minimum power generation amount period in each of the plurality of time units.

8. A facility design method comprising: a step of estimating a minimum power generation period of a power generation facility that utilizes natural energy in each of a plurality of time units based on time series data of observed values ​​of the natural energy or simulated values ​​that simulate the observed values; and a step of selecting the power generation facility and a power storage facility that stores the electricity generated by the power generation facility based on time series data of the observed values ​​or simulated values ​​of the minimum power generation period in each of the plurality of time units.

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