Climate prediction method and device based on historical observation constraint, medium and equipment

Abstract

The invention provides a historical observation constraint-based climate prediction method and device, a medium and equipment, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining a climate prediction result of a climate prediction model for a target region in a target time period of a target year; a climate prediction result of a target region in a target time period of a target year is converted into a prediction time sequence corresponding to the target year, the prediction time sequence corresponding to the target year is corrected to obtain a corrected time sequence, and then the climate prediction result of the target region in a target time period of the target year is calculated according to the corrected time sequence and an observation space base. And the corrected climate prediction result is determined, so that the accuracy of the corrected climate prediction result is ensured.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of climate prediction, and in particular to a climate prediction method, device, medium and equipment based on historical observation constraints. Background Art

[0002] There are three main short-term climate prediction methods: statistical methods, dynamic methods, and dynamic-statistical combined methods. Although statistical methods are good at using a large amount of historical data, they are powerless to deal with multi-factor mismatches and factor transitions. Although dynamic methods are good at using physical laws, they also face the situation of poor prediction results due to problems such as imperfect physical processes within the dynamic model and inaccurate initial values. Based on this, as early as the 1970s, the idea of ​​combining statistics and dynamic methods was proposed. Under the guidance of this idea, the climate prediction method combining dynamics and statistics has been widely used in short-term climate prediction business and has achieved some improvement results. However, there is still a problem of insufficient use of historical data, which leads to the current low level of short-term climate prediction. Summary of the invention

[0003] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a climate prediction method, device, medium and equipment based on historical observation constraints to improve the above-mentioned problems.

[0004] In order to achieve the above purpose, the technical solution adopted by the embodiment of the present invention is as follows: In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a climate prediction method based on historical observation constraints, the method comprising: Obtaining a climate prediction result of a climate prediction model for a target area within a target time period in a target year, wherein the climate prediction result corresponds to a prediction factor set by the climate prediction model; Determine the forecast time series corresponding to the target year according to the climate forecast result and forecast spatial basis of the target year; According to the linear regression relationship, the forecast time series corresponding to the target year is corrected to obtain a corrected time series; The revised climate prediction results are determined based on the revised time series and observational space basis.

[0005] Optionally, the formula for the predicted time series corresponding to the target year is:

[0006]

[0007] Where N is the number of historical years of observation data corresponding to the prediction spatial basis, N+1 represents the target year, It represents the climate prediction result of the climate prediction model for the N+1th year. is the prediction space basis for the i-th year, T is the transposition operation, represents the forecast time series for the N+1th year, is a preset value less than N; The formula of the corrected time series is:

[0008]

[0009] in, represents the corrected time series, represents the linear regression coefficient between the predicted time series of year i and the observed time series of year j, represents the intercept of the observed time series in year j, is a preset value less than N.

[0010] Optionally, the formula for determining the revised climate prediction result is:

[0011] in, represents the revised climate prediction results, represents the observation space basis of the jth year.

[0012] Optionally, the method further comprises: acquiring historical observation data and historical prediction data of the site, wherein the historical observation data of the site is the climate data corresponding to the prediction factor observed by the observation site in the target area during the target period of the historical year, and the historical prediction data is the climate prediction result of the climate prediction model for the target area during the target period of the historical year; An empirical orthogonal function decomposition is performed based on the historical observation data of the site and the historical prediction data to obtain an observation space basis and a prediction space basis.

[0013] Optionally, the formula for decomposing the empirical orthogonal function is:

[0014]

[0015] Where N is the number of historical years of observation data corresponding to the prediction spatial basis, represents the historical forecast data, represents the historical observation data of the site, represents the prediction spatial basis for the i-th year, represents the observation space basis of the jth year, represents the forecast time series for the i-th year, represents the observation time series of the jth year.

[0016] Optionally, the method further comprises: constructing the linear regression relationship according to the observed time series and the predicted time series.

[0017] Optionally, the linear regression relationship is expressed as:

[0018]

[0019] in, represents the linear regression coefficient between the predicted time series of year i and the observed time series of year j, represents the intercept of the observed time series in year j, is a preset value less than N.

[0020] In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a climate prediction device based on historical observation constraints, the device comprising: A first processing unit is used to obtain a climate prediction result of a climate prediction model for a target area within a target time period of a target year, wherein the climate prediction result corresponds to a prediction factor set by the climate prediction model; The first processing unit is further used to determine the prediction time series corresponding to the target year according to the climate prediction result and the prediction spatial basis of the target year; The first processing unit is further used to correct the predicted time series corresponding to the target year according to the linear regression relationship to obtain a corrected time series; The second processing unit is used to determine the revised climate prediction result according to the revised time series and the observation space basis.

[0021] In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, and the computer program implements the above method when executed by a processor.

[0022] In a fourth aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides an electronic device, comprising: a processor and a memory, wherein the memory is used to store one or more programs; when the one or more programs are executed by the processor, the above method is implemented.

[0023] Compared with the prior art, the embodiments of the present invention provide a climate prediction method, device, medium and equipment based on historical observation constraints, which obtain the climate prediction results of the climate prediction model for the target area in the target time period of the target year, convert the climate prediction results of the target area in the target time period of the target year into a prediction time series corresponding to the target year, and then correct the prediction time series corresponding to the target year to obtain a corrected time series, and then determine the corrected climate prediction results based on the corrected time series and the observation space basis, thereby ensuring the accuracy of the corrected climate prediction results.

[0024] In order to make the above-mentioned objects, features and advantages of the present invention more obvious and easy to understand, preferred embodiments are given below and described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0025] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, the drawings required for use in the embodiments will be briefly introduced below. It should be understood that the following drawings only show certain embodiments of the present invention and therefore should not be regarded as limiting the scope. For ordinary technicians in this field, other related drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative work.

[0026] Figure 1 A schematic diagram of the structure of an electronic device provided by an embodiment of the present invention.

[0027] Figure 2 One of the flow charts of the climate prediction method based on historical observation constraints provided in an embodiment of the present invention.

[0028] Figure 3 The second flowchart of the climate prediction method based on historical observation constraints provided in an embodiment of the present invention.

[0029] Figure 4 A schematic diagram of units of a climate prediction device based on historical observation constraints provided by an embodiment of the present invention.

[0030] In the figure: 10 - processor; 11 - memory; 12 - bus; 13 - communication interface; 501 - first processing unit; 502 - second processing unit. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0031] In order to make the purpose, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Generally, the components of the embodiments of the present invention described and shown in the drawings here can be arranged and designed in various different configurations.

[0032] Therefore, the following detailed description of the embodiments of the present invention provided in the accompanying drawings is not intended to limit the scope of the invention claimed for protection, but merely represents selected embodiments of the present invention. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0033] It should be noted that similar reference numerals and letters represent similar items in the following drawings, so once an item is defined in one drawing, it does not need to be further defined and explained in the subsequent drawings. At the same time, in the description of the present invention, the terms "first", "second", etc. are only used to distinguish the description and cannot be understood as indicating or implying relative importance.

[0034] It should be noted that, in this article, relational terms such as first and second, etc. are only used to distinguish one entity or operation from another entity or operation, and do not necessarily require or imply any such actual relationship or order between these entities or operations. Moreover, the terms "include", "comprise" or any other variants thereof are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusion, so that a process, method, article or device including a series of elements includes not only those elements, but also other elements not explicitly listed, or also includes elements inherent to such process, method, article or device. In the absence of further restrictions, the elements defined by the sentence "comprise a ..." do not exclude the existence of other identical elements in the process, method, article or device including the elements.

[0035] In the description of the present invention, it should be noted that the terms "upper", "lower", "inside", "outside", etc. indicate directions or positional relationships based on the directions or positional relationships shown in the accompanying drawings, or are directions or positional relationships in which the product of the invention is usually placed when in use. They are only for the convenience of describing the present invention and simplifying the description, and do not indicate or imply that the device or element referred to must have a specific direction, be constructed and operated in a specific direction, and therefore should not be understood as a limitation on the present invention.

[0036] In the description of the present invention, it is also necessary to explain that, unless otherwise clearly specified and limited, the terms "disposed" and "connected" should be understood in a broad sense, for example, it can be a fixed connection, a detachable connection, or an integral connection; it can be a mechanical connection or an electrical connection; it can be a direct connection, or it can be an indirect connection through an intermediate medium, or it can be the internal communication of two elements. For ordinary technicians in this field, the specific meanings of the above terms in the present invention can be understood according to specific circumstances.

[0037] Some embodiments of the present invention are described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. In the absence of conflict, the following embodiments and features in the embodiments can be combined with each other.

[0038] The current climate model, which is mainly based on the dynamic model, has great deficiencies in its ability to predict summer precipitation. Business departments cannot meet actual needs by only using climate model results as a reference. The dynamic model has the defect of insufficient consideration of certain physical processes, namely systematic errors, and it is necessary to combine statistical theoretical knowledge to reduce its impact. However, the dynamic method and the statistical method have not been maturely combined at present, or have not yet been deployed in the field of business forecasting and can provide high credibility. An embodiment of the present invention provides a climate prediction method based on historical observation constraints. As a dynamic-statistical combined model, the method introduces historical observation data to constrain the output results of the climate model. Compared with the output results of the climate model, it can stably improve the prediction skills.

[0039] An embodiment of the present invention provides an electronic device, which may be a computer device or a server device. Figure 1 , a schematic diagram of the structure of an electronic device. The electronic device includes a processor 10, a memory 11, and a bus 12. The processor 10 and the memory 11 are connected via the bus 12, and the processor 10 is used to execute an executable module stored in the memory 11, such as a computer program.

[0040] The processor 10 may be an integrated circuit chip having signal processing capabilities. In the implementation process, each step of the climate prediction method based on historical observation constraints may be completed by hardware integrated logic circuits in the processor 10 or instructions in the form of software. The above-mentioned processor 10 may be a general-purpose processor, including a central processing unit (CPU), a network processor (NP), etc.; it may also be a digital signal processor (DSP), an application specific integrated circuit (ASIC), a field programmable gate array (FPGA), or other programmable logic devices, discrete gates or transistor logic devices, discrete hardware components.

[0041] The memory 11 may include a high-speed random access memory (RAM), and may also include a non-volatile memory, such as at least one disk memory.

[0042] The bus 12 may be an ISA (Industry Standard Architecture) bus, a PCI (Peripheral Component Interconnect) bus, or an EISA (Extended Industry Standard Architecture) bus. Figure 1 Although only one bidirectional arrow is used in the figure, it does not mean that there is only one bus 12 or only one type of bus 12 .

[0043] The memory 11 is used to store programs, such as programs corresponding to the climate prediction device based on historical observation constraints. The climate prediction device based on historical observation constraints includes at least one software function module that can be stored in the memory 11 in the form of software or firmware or fixed in the operating system (OS) of the electronic device. After receiving the execution instruction, the processor 10 executes the program to implement the climate prediction method based on historical observation constraints.

[0044] Possibly, the electronic device provided by the embodiment of the present invention further includes a communication interface 13. The communication interface 13 is connected to the processor 10 via a bus.

[0045] It should be understood that Figure 1 The structure shown is only a schematic diagram of a portion of the electronic device. The electronic device may also include Figure 1 More or fewer components as shown, or with Figure 1 Different configurations are shown. Figure 1 Each component shown in the figure can be implemented by hardware, software or a combination thereof.

[0046] A climate prediction method based on historical observation constraints provided by an embodiment of the present invention can be applied to, but is not limited to, Figure 1 For detailed procedures, please refer to the electronic equipment shown in Figure 2 ,The climate prediction methods based on historical observation constraints include: S210, S220, S230 and S240, which are described in detail as follows.

[0047] S210, obtaining the climate prediction results of the climate prediction model for the target area within the target time period of the target year.

[0048] The climate prediction result corresponds to the prediction factor set by the climate prediction model. The target time period may be the flood season period of the target area in the target year, such as June, July and August in summer. The prediction factor may be, but is not limited to, precipitation.

[0049] S220, determining a prediction time series corresponding to the target year based on the climate prediction results of the target year and the prediction spatial basis.

[0050] Combined with the prediction spatial basis, the empirical orthogonal function decomposition (EOF decomposition) is used to process the climate prediction results of the target year, so as to obtain the prediction time series corresponding to the target year.

[0051] Optionally, the formula for the predicted time series corresponding to the target year is:

[0052]

[0053] Where N is the number of historical years of observation data corresponding to the prediction spatial basis, N+1 represents the target year, It represents the climate prediction result of the climate prediction model for the N+1th year. is the prediction space basis for the i-th year, T is the transposition operation, represents the forecast time series for the N+1th year, is a preset value less than N.

[0054] S230, correcting the predicted time series corresponding to the target year according to the linear regression relationship to obtain a corrected time series.

[0055] Optionally, the formula for the corrected time series is:

[0056]

[0057] in, represents the corrected time series, represents the linear regression coefficient between the predicted time series of year i and the observed time series of year j, represents the intercept of the observed time series in year j, is a preset value less than N.

[0058] S240, determining a revised climate prediction result based on the revised time series and the observed space basis.

[0059] The observation space basis is also called the spatial mode of the observation EOF decomposition, which can be understood as the historical observation constraint.

[0060] The corrected time series and the observed space basis are synthesized to obtain the corrected climate prediction results.

[0061] Optionally, the formula for determining the revised climate prediction result is:

[0062] in, represents the revised climate prediction results, represents the observation space basis of the jth year.

[0063] In the climate prediction method based on historical observation constraints provided in an embodiment of the present invention, the climate prediction results of the target area in the target time period of the target year are converted into a prediction time series corresponding to the target year, and then the prediction time series corresponding to the target year is corrected to obtain a corrected time series, and then the corrected climate prediction results are determined based on the corrected time series and the observation space basis, thereby ensuring the accuracy of the revised climate prediction results.

[0064] Among them, the parameters M and K represent the adjusted prediction field through the previous The basis and front of the predicted spatial mode The optimal values ​​of the two are determined through sensitive experiments.

[0065] Based on the above, regarding how to determine the observation space basis and the prediction space basis, the embodiment of the present invention also provides an optional implementation method, please refer to Figure 3 ,The climate prediction methods based on historical observation constraints also include: S110 and S120, as follows.

[0066] S110, obtaining historical observation data and historical prediction data of the site.

[0067] Among them, the historical observation data of the site are the climate data corresponding to the prediction factors observed by the observation sites in the target area during the target period of the historical years. The historical prediction data are the climate prediction results of the climate prediction model for the target area during the target period of the historical years. The historical years are the N years before the target year.

[0068] S120, performing empirical orthogonal function decomposition based on the historical observation data and historical prediction data of the site to obtain an observation space basis and a prediction space basis.

[0069] Optionally, the formula for decomposing the empirical orthogonal function is:

[0070]

[0071] Where N is the number of historical years of observation data corresponding to the prediction spatial basis, Represents historical forecast data, Represents the historical observation data of the site, represents the prediction spatial basis for the i-th year, represents the observation space basis of the jth year, represents the forecast time series for the i-th year, represents the observation time series of the jth year.

[0072] Please continue to refer to Figure 3 In an optional implementation, the climate prediction method based on historical observation constraints also includes: S130, as follows.

[0073] S130, constructing a linear regression relationship based on the observed time series and the predicted time series.

[0074] Optionally, the linear regression relationship is calculated as:

[0075]

[0076] in, represents the linear regression coefficient between the predicted time series of year i and the observed time series of year j, represents the intercept of the observed time series in the jth year, where M and K are preset values ​​less than N.

[0077] See also Figure 4 , Figure 4 An embodiment of the present invention provides a climate prediction device based on historical observation constraints. Optionally, the climate prediction device based on historical observation constraints is applied to the electronic device described above.

[0078] The climate prediction device based on historical observation constraints includes: a first processing unit 501 and a second processing unit 502 .

[0079] The first processing unit 501 is used to obtain the climate prediction result of the climate prediction model for the target area in the target time period of the target year, wherein the climate prediction result corresponds to the prediction factor set by the climate prediction model; The first processing unit 501 is further used to determine the prediction time series corresponding to the target year according to the climate prediction result and the prediction space basis of the target year; The first processing unit 501 is further used to correct the predicted time series corresponding to the target year according to the linear regression relationship to obtain a corrected time series; The second processing unit 502 is used to determine a revised climate prediction result based on the revised time series and the observation space basis.

[0080] Optionally, the second processing unit 502 may execute the above S240, and the first processing unit 501 may execute the above other steps.

[0081] It should be noted that the climate prediction device based on historical observation constraints provided in this embodiment can execute the method flow shown in the above method flow embodiment to achieve the corresponding technical effect. For the sake of brief description, for parts not mentioned in this embodiment, please refer to the corresponding content in the above embodiment.

[0082] The embodiment of the present invention further provides a storage medium, which stores computer instructions and programs, which, when read and executed, execute the climate prediction method based on historical observation constraints of the above embodiment. The storage medium may include a memory, a flash memory, a register, or a combination thereof.

[0083] The following provides an electronic device, which may be a computer device or a server device. Figure 1 As shown, the above-mentioned climate prediction method based on historical observation constraints can be implemented; specifically, the electronic device includes: a processor 10, a memory 11, and a bus 12. The processor 10 can be a CPU. The memory 11 is used to store one or more programs. When the one or more programs are executed by the processor 10, the climate prediction method based on historical observation constraints of the above-mentioned embodiment is executed.

[0084] In summary, the embodiments of the present invention provide a climate prediction method, device, medium and equipment based on historical observation constraints, which obtain the climate prediction results of the climate prediction model for the target area in the target time period of the target year, convert the climate prediction results of the target area in the target time period of the target year into a prediction time series corresponding to the target year, and then correct the prediction time series corresponding to the target year to obtain a corrected time series, and then determine the corrected climate prediction results based on the corrected time series and the observation space basis, thereby ensuring the accuracy of the corrected climate prediction results.

[0085] The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention. For those skilled in the art, the present invention may have various modifications and variations. Any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement, etc. made within the spirit and principle of the present invention shall be included in the protection scope of the present invention.

[0086] It will be apparent to those skilled in the art that the invention is not limited to the details of the exemplary embodiments described above and that the invention can be implemented in other specific forms without departing from the spirit or essential features of the invention. Therefore, the embodiments should be considered exemplary and non-limiting in all respects, and the scope of the invention is defined by the appended claims rather than the foregoing description, and it is intended that all variations falling within the meaning and scope of the equivalent elements of the claims be included in the invention. Any reference numeral in a claim should not be considered as limiting the claim to which it relates.

Claims

1. A climate prediction method based on historical observation constraints, characterized in that: The method comprises: Obtaining a climate prediction result of a climate prediction model for a target area within a target time period in a target year, wherein the climate prediction result corresponds to a prediction factor set by the climate prediction model; Determine the forecast time series corresponding to the target year according to the climate forecast result and forecast spatial basis of the target year; According to the linear regression relationship, the forecast time series corresponding to the target year is corrected to obtain a corrected time series; The revised climate prediction results are determined based on the revised time series and observational space basis.

2. The climate prediction method based on historical observation constraints according to claim 1, characterized in that: The formula for the forecast time series corresponding to the target year is: Where N is the number of historical years of observation data corresponding to the prediction spatial basis, N+1 represents the target year, It represents the climate prediction result of the climate prediction model for the N+1th year. is the prediction space basis for the i-th year, T is the transposition operation, represents the forecast time series for the N+1th year, is a preset value less than N; The formula of the corrected time series is: in, represents the corrected time series, represents the linear regression coefficient between the predicted time series of year i and the observed time series of year j, represents the intercept of the observed time series in year j, is a preset value less than N.

3. The climate prediction method based on historical observation constraints as claimed in claim 2, characterized in that: The formula for determining the revised climate prediction results is: in, represents the revised climate prediction results, represents the observation space basis of the jth year.

4. The climate prediction method based on historical observation constraints according to claim 1, characterized in that: The method further comprises: Acquire historical observation data and historical prediction data of the site, wherein the historical observation data of the site is the climate data corresponding to the prediction factors observed by the observation site in the target area during the target period of the historical year, and the historical prediction data is the climate prediction result of the climate prediction model for the target area during the target period of the historical year; An empirical orthogonal function decomposition is performed based on the historical observation data of the site and the historical prediction data to obtain an observation space basis and a prediction space basis.

5. The climate prediction method based on historical observation constraints according to claim 4, characterized in that: The formula for the decomposition of the empirical orthogonal function is: Where N is the number of historical years of observation data corresponding to the prediction spatial basis, represents the historical forecast data, represents the historical observation data of the site, represents the prediction spatial basis for the i-th year, represents the observation space basis of the jth year, represents the forecast time series for the i-th year, represents the observation time series of the jth year.

6. The climate prediction method based on historical observation constraints according to claim 5, characterized in that: The method further comprises: The linear regression relationship is constructed based on the observed time series and the predicted time series.

7. The climate prediction method based on historical observation constraints according to claim 5, characterized in that: The formula of the linear regression relationship is: in, represents the linear regression coefficient between the predicted time series of year i and the observed time series of year j, represents the intercept of the observed time series in year j, is a preset value less than N.

8. A climate prediction device based on historical observation constraints, characterized in that: The device comprises: A first processing unit is used to obtain a climate prediction result of a climate prediction model for a target area within a target time period of a target year, wherein the climate prediction result corresponds to a prediction factor set by the climate prediction model; The first processing unit is further used to determine the prediction time series corresponding to the target year according to the climate prediction result and the prediction spatial basis of the target year; The first processing unit is further used to correct the predicted time series corresponding to the target year according to the linear regression relationship to obtain a corrected time series; The second processing unit is used to determine the revised climate prediction result according to the revised time series and the observation space basis.

9. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that: When the computer program is executed by a processor, the method according to any one of claims 1 to 7 is implemented.

10. An electronic device, characterized in that: include: A processor and a memory, the memory being used to store one or more programs; When the one or more programs are executed by the processor, the method according to any one of claims 1 to 7 is implemented.

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