Economic evaluation method for deep sea polymetallic nodule mining

By combining autoregressive analysis with Monte Carlo simulation and discounted cash flow analysis, the problem of price fluctuation uncertainty in deep-sea polymetallic nodule mining was solved, a closed-loop prediction system was formed, the reliability of economic evaluation and risk controllability were improved, and a quantitative basis for investment decision-making was provided.

CN120688741APending Publication Date: 2025-09-23TIANJIN UNIV
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Patent Information

Application Number
CN202510784953.X
Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Applications(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
Filing Date
2025-06-12
Publication Date
2025-09-23

AI Technical Summary

Technical Problem

Existing economic evaluation methods for deep-sea polymetallic nodule mining lack quantitative modeling of the long-term mean-reversion characteristics and random fluctuations of prices, resulting in prediction results that are difficult to reflect the true market dynamics. They also ignore the capital exchange cost-price linkage between nodule collectors and metal processors, making it difficult to match investment return targets.

Method used

Autoregressive analysis and Monte Carlo simulation are combined with discounted cash flow analysis to form a closed-loop forecasting system. The uncertainty of metal price fluctuations is captured through the autoregressive model, and the internal rate of return is used to reversely iterate and calculate the nodule purchase price. The investment return target is linked to the mining cost, and a multi-scenario simulation is generated to show the probability distribution of project returns.

Benefits of technology

It improves the reliability of predictions and scientific decision-making for deep-sea mining projects, provides quantitative basis to assist enterprises in predicting profit expectations, and intuitively displays the probability distribution of project returns through multi-scenario simulation, thereby improving risk controllability.

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Abstract

The invention discloses an economic evaluation method for deep sea polymetallic nodule exploitation, and belongs to the cross technical field of marine resource exploitation and mining industry economic evaluation, and the method comprises the following steps: S1, selecting a processing technology for extracting metal from nodules; s2, calculating economic elements of a metal processor; s3, using the data obtained in the S2 to generate a cash flow table of the metal processor; s4, calculating the noisy purchase price of the target return on investment of the metal processor; s5, calculating economic factors of the tuberculosis collector; s6, using the data obtained in the S5 to generate a cash flow table of the tuberculosis collector; s7, calculating required economic indexes of the tuberculosis acquirers and summarizing economic index simulation results of all the tuberculosis acquirers; and S8, evaluating the economic feasibility of the deep sea polymetallic nodule mining activity scheme. According to the economic evaluation method for deep sea polymetallic nodule exploitation, the uncertainty of metal price fluctuation is effectively captured, and the prediction reliability is improved.
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