China electric power industry carbon quota allocation method giving consideration to inter-generational and inter-provincial fairness

Abstract

The invention discloses a China power industry carbon quota allocation method giving consideration to inter-generational and inter-provincial fairness. The method comprises the steps of obtaining national carbon emission data over the years and power industry carbon emission data over the years; based on the intergenerational emission reduction model, according to the national carbon emission data over the years and the carbon emission data of the power industry over the years, predicting the carbon emission of the power industry in the tth year; and multiplying the carbon emission of the power industry in the tth year by the adjusted accumulated carbon intensity of the power industry in the set region to obtain the power industry carbon quota of the corresponding set region in the tth year. According to the method, the upper limit of the trans-generational carbon quota is set, a carbon transfer responsibility adjustment mechanism based on regional power dispatching is introduced, and the problem of carbon responsibility imbalance caused by power trans-regional dispatching is effectively relieved; meanwhile, the emission reduction economic cost of each time period and each region is quantified, and a data basis is provided for carbon regulation and control.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of carbon emission technology, and more specifically, to a method for allocating carbon quotas in China's power industry that takes into account both intergenerational and inter-provincial fairness. Background Art

[0002] The scientific and reasonable allocation of carbon quotas ensures the orderly operation of the carbon emission trading market. The power industry accounts for more than 40% of China's total carbon emissions, becoming the first industry to be included in the national carbon market and a key industry for China to achieve its emission reduction targets. Therefore, the reasonable design of China's power industry carbon quota allocation method is of great significance to the orderly development of China's carbon market; the existing carbon quota allocation method is mainly based on single-year emission intensity for quota allocation, ignoring the emission reduction burden of different generations in the time dimension; at the same time, the current carbon quota allocation method often ignores the carbon transfer problem caused by cross-provincial power dispatching in the spatial dimension. Summary of the Invention

[0003] In order to solve at least one of the above technical problems, the present invention provides a carbon quota allocation method for China's power industry that takes into account intergenerational and inter-provincial fairness, realizes the setting of an upper limit for cross-generational carbon quotas, introduces a carbon transfer responsibility adjustment mechanism based on regional power dispatching, and effectively alleviates the carbon responsibility imbalance problem caused by cross-regional power dispatching; at the same time, the present invention quantifies the economic cost of emission reduction in each time period and region, providing a data basis for carbon regulation.

[0004] The present invention provides a method for allocating carbon quotas in China's power industry that takes into account both intergenerational and interprovincial fairness, including:

[0005] Obtain historical national carbon emission data and historical power industry carbon emission data;

[0006] Based on the intergenerational emission reduction model, and according to the national carbon emission data and the carbon emission data of the power industry over the years, the carbon emissions of the power industry in year t are predicted;

[0007] Multiply the carbon emissions of the power industry in year t by the adjusted cumulative carbon intensity of the power industry in the set region to obtain the carbon quota of the power industry in the corresponding set region in year t.

[0008] In this plan, the formula for predicting the carbon emissions of the power industry in year t is based on the intergenerational emission reduction model and historical national carbon emission data and historical power industry carbon emission data. Specifically, it is:

[0009] Forecast_Emission t =f(IAM_Emission t ,Nemission t ,Pemission t ); where F

[0010] orecast_Emission t represents the carbon emissions of the power industry in year t predicted by the intergenerational emission reduction model, Nemission t represents the national carbon emissions in year t, t IAM_Emission represents the carbon emissions of the power industry in year t, t represents the national carbon emissions in year t under the intergenerational emission reduction model.

[0011] In this scheme, the formula for obtaining the national carbon emissions in year t under the intergenerational emission reduction model is: IAM_Emission t =BAU_Emission t ―W t , where BAU_Emission t represents the carbon emissions under the BAU scenario, Where t=1,2,…, T is the emission reduction period, τ is the economic emission reduction index, W t is the emission reduction in period t, r is the discount rate; b is a constant; S represents the lower limit of the total emission reduction from period 0 to period T, satisfying

[0012] In this plan, the steps for obtaining the adjusted cumulative carbon intensity of the power industry in the specified region specifically include:

[0013] Based on the carbon emission data of the power industry over the years, the direct and implicit carbon emissions of the power industry in each region were obtained;

[0014] Construct a power input and output balance matrix for each region based on the direct and implicit carbon emissions of the power industry in each region;

[0015] According to the power input-output balance matrix, the power production-consumption matrix Z and the direct carbon emissions of regional power generation are obtained;

[0016] According to the electricity production-consumption matrix Z and the direct carbon emissions of regional power generation, the emission matrix F in electricity of power production region i and power consumption region j is constructed, and its formula is: in It is e p The diagonal matrix on the diagonal, e p direct carbon emissions from generating electricity for the region;

[0017] Adjust the adjusted cumulative carbon intensity of the power industry in region i based on the emissions matrix F. i , the formula is:

[0018] Emission i，t represents the carbon emissions of region i in year t, P i，t represents the power generation of region i in year t, Among them F i，j，t and F j，i，t Respectively represent the sum of the i-th row and i-th column in the matrix F; Trans i，t represents the carbon emission transfer of the power industry in region i in year t.

[0019] In this solution, after obtaining the predicted carbon emissions of the power industry in year t, the following is also included:

[0020] According to the intergenerational emission reduction model, the emission reduction amount W of the power industry in year t t , we can get the emission reduction cost Cost_intergenerational in year t under the principle of intergenerational responsibility distribution. i,t , the formula is:

[0021] Cost_intergenerational i,t =W t *Price t ; Price t represents the carbon price in year t.

[0022] In this solution, after obtaining the carbon quota for the power industry in the corresponding set region in year t, the following steps are also included:

[0023] Obtain the carbon emissions of the power industry in year t predicted by the intergenerational emission reduction model;

[0024] According to the carbon emission data of the power industry over the years, the total historical carbon emissions of the power industry in region i are obtained;

[0025] Assuming that the proportion of region i in national emissions remains unchanged, the actual carbon emissions of the power industry in region i in year t are obtained based on the total historical carbon emissions of the power industry in region i and the carbon emissions of the power industry in year t predicted by the intergenerational emission reduction model;

[0026] According to the carbon quota of the power industry in the corresponding set region in year t and the actual carbon emissions of the power industry in region i in year t, the emission reduction cost of region i in year t under the principle of interprovincial responsibility allocation is obtained: Cost_interprovincial i,t , the formula is:

[0027] Cost_interprovincial i,t =(Actual_emissions i,t ―Allocationi,t )*Price t ; wherein

[0028] Allocation i,t denotes the carbon quota of the power industry in region i in year t; Actual_emissions i,t denotes the actual carbon emissions of the power industry in region i in year t.

[0029] In this scheme, the formula for obtaining the actual carbon emissions of the power industry in region i in year t according to the total historical carbon emissions of the power industry in region i and the predicted carbon emissions of the power industry in year t based on the intergenerational emission reduction model is as follows:

[0030] wherein t belongs to m, Hisemissions t denotes the historical carbon emissions of the power industry in region i in year t; Actual_emissions i,t denotes the actual carbon emissions of the power industry in region i in year t.

[0031] This scheme also includes:

[0032] According to the historical carbon emission data of the power industry, the actual carbon emissions of the power industry in region i in the previous year are obtained;

[0033] The actual carbon emissions of the power industry in region i in the previous year are subtracted from the carbon quota of the power industry in the corresponding region in the previous year to obtain a carbon emission difference;

[0034] The carbon emission difference is divided by the carbon quota of the power industry in the corresponding region in the previous year to obtain a carbon quota matching difference degree of the corresponding region;

[0035] When the carbon quota matching difference degree of the corresponding region is within the preset matching degree range, the carbon quota of the power industry in the corresponding region is normal;

[0036] When the carbon quota matching difference degree of the corresponding region is not within the preset matching degree range, an optimization warning information of the carbon quota of the power industry in the corresponding region is generated, and the carbon quota of the power industry in the region is adjusted based on the optimization warning information.

[0037] In this scheme, the step of adjusting the carbon quota of the power industry in the region based on the optimization warning information specifically includes:

[0038] When the carbon quota matching difference degree of region i is lower than the minimum value in the preset matching degree range, the carbon quota matching difference degree of region i is subtracted from the minimum value in the preset matching degree range to obtain a first difference;

[0039] The first difference value is multiplied by a preset optimization base number to obtain an optimization weight of the power industry in the corresponding region i in the current year;

[0040] When the carbon quota matching difference of region i is higher than the maximum value in the preset matching range, the carbon quota matching difference of region i is subtracted by the maximum value in the preset matching range to obtain a second difference value;

[0041] The second difference value is multiplied by a preset optimization base number to obtain an optimization weight of the power industry in the corresponding region i in the current year;

[0042] The carbon quota of the power industry in the corresponding region in the tth year is multiplied by the optimization weight of the power industry in the corresponding region i in the current year to obtain a product, and the carbon quota of the power industry in the corresponding region in the tth year is added to the product to obtain the optimized carbon quota of the power industry in region i.

[0043] The application discloses a carbon quota allocation method for Chinese power industry considering intergenerational and interprovincial fairness, comprising: obtaining national carbon emission data in previous years and power industry carbon emission data in previous years; based on an intergenerational emission reduction model, predicting carbon emission of the power industry in the tth year according to the national carbon emission data in previous years and the power industry carbon emission data in previous years; and multiplying the carbon emission of the power industry in the tth year by the adjusted cumulative carbon intensity of the power industry in a set region to obtain the carbon quota of the power industry in the tth year in the corresponding set region. The application realizes the setting of the upper limit of the intergenerational carbon quota, introduces a carbon transfer responsibility adjustment mechanism based on regional power dispatching, effectively alleviates the problem of carbon responsibility imbalance caused by power cross-regional dispatching, and quantifies the emission reduction economic cost of each period and each region, thereby providing a data basis for carbon regulation. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF DRAWINGS

[0044] Figure 1 A flowchart of the carbon quota allocation method for Chinese power industry considering intergenerational and interprovincial fairness is shown. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0045] In order to more clearly understand the above-mentioned purposes, features and advantages of the application, the application will be further described in detail below in combination with the drawings and specific embodiments. It should be noted that the embodiments of the application and the features in the embodiments can be combined with each other without conflict.

[0046] In the following description, many specific details are set forth in order to provide a thorough understanding of the application, but the application can also be implemented in other ways different from those described herein, therefore, the protection scope of the application is not limited by the specific embodiments disclosed below.

[0047] Figure 1 A flowchart of the carbon quota allocation method for Chinese power industry considering intergenerational and interprovincial fairness is shown.

[0048] like Figure 1 As shown, the present invention discloses a method for allocating carbon quotas in China's power industry that takes into account both intergenerational and inter-provincial fairness, including:

[0049] S101, obtain national carbon emission data and power industry carbon emission data over the years;

[0050] S102, based on the intergenerational emission reduction model and historical national carbon emission data and historical power industry carbon emission data, predict the carbon emissions of the power industry in year t;

[0051] S103, multiplying the carbon emissions of the power industry in year t by the adjusted cumulative carbon intensity of the power industry in the set region to obtain the carbon quota of the power industry in the corresponding set region in year t.

[0052] According to an embodiment of the present invention, before predicting the carbon emissions of the power industry in year t, it is necessary to set the objective function and constraints in the intergenerational emission reduction model. The objective function is Where V(W t ) represents the social utility of each period. The model only limits the total amount of carbon emissions, that is, to ensure that the sum of the emission reductions in each period at least meets the lower limit of the total emission reduction under a specific temperature rise target. The constraint formula is: In addition, the 2060 target means that the emission reduction at t = 40 should be equal to the carbon emissions under the BAU scenario, that is: W T =E T , where W T is the emission reduction in the last period, E T is the carbon emissions in the last period without policy intervention, and the constraint formula is Derivative the objective function, we get Its formula is Based on Hotelling's law, the marginal social utility of emission reduction in each period should be equal to its shadow price. The marginal social utility of emission reduction in each period should be equal to its shadow price, ψ t =(1―r)(1―τ)*ψ t+1 ; where ψ t is the shadow price of carbon emission reduction in period t; ideally, the price of carbon emissions should be set to the social cost of carbon. When the total social utility is maximized, the carbon price c t Equal to the shadow price of emission reduction ψ t The opposite of ψ t =-c t , then the trajectory of carbon price change is Assume that the relationship between emission reduction and carbon pricing is a constant elasticity 1 / u, where u is greater than zero, that is, Where λ is a constant parameter. When the total social utility is maximized, the emission reduction W is constructed. t The changing trajectory of

[0053] According to an embodiment of the present invention, the formula for predicting the carbon emissions of the power industry in year t based on the intergenerational emission reduction model and historical national carbon emission data and historical power industry carbon emission data is specifically:

[0054] Forecast_Emission t =f(IAM_Emission t ,Nemission t ,Pemission t ); where F

[0055] orecast_Emission t represents the carbon emissions of the power industry in year t predicted by the intergenerational emission reduction model, Nemission t represents the national carbon emissions in year t, t IAM_Emission represents the carbon emissions of the power industry in year t, t represents the national carbon emissions in year t under the intergenerational emission reduction model.

[0056] According to an embodiment of the present invention, the formula for obtaining the national carbon emissions in year t under the intergenerational emission reduction model is: IAM_Emission t =BAU_Emission t ―W t , among which BAU-Emission t represents the carbon emissions under the BAU scenario, Where t=1,2,…, T is the emission reduction period, τ is the economic emission reduction index, W t is the emission reduction in period t, r is the discount rate; b is a constant; S represents the lower limit of the total emission reduction from period 0 to period T, satisfying

[0057] It should be noted that the carbon emissions under the BAU scenario refer to the business-as-usual situation, that is, without additional policy intervention and major technological changes, according to the current development model and the scenario that tends to continue.

[0058] According to the embodiment of the present application, the step of obtaining the adjusted cumulative carbon intensity of the region power industry specifically comprises:

[0059] According to the historical carbon emission data of the power industry, the direct and indirect carbon emission of each region is obtained;

[0060] According to the direct and indirect carbon emission of each region, the power input-output balance matrix of each region is constructed;

[0061] According to the power input-output balance matrix, the power production-consumption matrix Z and the direct carbon emission of regional power generation are obtained;

[0062] According to the power production-consumption matrix Z and the direct carbon emission of regional power generation, the emission matrix F of the power production region i and the power consumption region j in the power amount is constructed, and the formula is Wherein is e p The diagonal matrix on the diagonal line, e p is the direct carbon emission of regional power generation;

[0063] Based on the emission matrix F, the adjusted cumulative carbon intensity Adjust_intensify of the power industry of region i is adjusted, and the formula is: i

[0064] Wherein Emission i，t represents the carbon emission of region i in the t year, P i，t represents the power generation of region i in the t year, Wherein F i，j，t and F j，i，t respectively represent the sum of the i row and the i column in the matrix F; Trans i，t represents the carbon emission transfer of the power industry of region i in the t year.

[0065] It should be noted that the power input-output balance matrix of each region is constructed, and the total power inflow and outflow of each region per year is equal, i.e.:

[0066] Wherein the left side of the equation is the total inflow of power in t year, including the local power generation in t year and the imported power from other regions, and the right side of the equation is the total outflow of power in t year, including the local power consumption in t year and the exported power to other regions, a i，t is the total power of region i in t year, P i，t and P′ i，t respectively represent the power generation and power consumption of region i in t year, X j，i，t and X i，j，t respectively represent the power transmitted from region i to j in t year and the power transmitted from region j to i in t year.​

[0067] Further, the step of obtaining the power production-consumption matrix Z and the direct carbon emission of regional power generation according to the power input-output balance matrix, specifically comprises:

[0068] Wherein H j，i，t is the proportion of the power transmitted from region i to region j in the total power a i，t in the tth year is a diagonal matrix containing the total power, the total flow coefficient matrix G is calculated according to the direct flow coefficient matrix H, and the formula is G=(I―H) ―1 =I+H+H 2 +H 3 +…, wherein G includes the total power of direct and indirect transmission, G i，j，t is the total power transmitted from region i to j through all possible direct and indirect paths in the tth year, the power transmission between regions includes self-use power I, direct power transmission H between regions, indirect power transmission H 2 between regions, two indirect power transmission H 3 between regions and more than two indirect power transmission between regions; the power production-consumption matrix Z is calculated to represent the relationship between the power generation and power consumption of a given region, and the formula is Wherein is a diagonal matrix of power consumption (power consumption) of a given region, Z i，j，t represents the proportion of power transmitted from region i to region j in the total power of region j in the tth year; further, the carbon dioxide emission e c contained in the power consumption of a given region is obtained, and the formula is

[0069] According to the embodiment of the present application, after obtaining the carbon emission of the predicted power industry in the tth year, further comprising:

[0070] According to the emission reduction amount W t of the power industry in the tth year according to the intergenerational emission reduction model, the emission reduction cost Cost_intergenerational i,t in the tth year under the principle of intergenerational responsibility allocation is obtained, and the formula is:

[0071] Cost_intergenerational i,t =W t *Price t ; wherein Price t represents the carbon price in the tth year.

[0072] According to the embodiment of the present application, after obtaining the carbon quota of the power industry in the tth year corresponding to the set region, further comprising:

[0073] obtaining the carbon emission of the power industry in the tth year predicted by the intergenerational emission reduction model;

[0074] obtaining the total historical carbon emission of the power industry in the region i according to the carbon emission data of the power industry in previous years;

[0075] obtaining the actual carbon emission of the power industry in the region i in the tth year according to the total historical carbon emission of the power industry in the region i and the carbon emission of the power industry in the tth year predicted by the intergenerational emission reduction model, under the condition that the proportion of the carbon emission of the power industry in the region i in the total carbon emission of the power industry in the country is constant;

[0076] obtaining the emission reduction cost of the region i in the tth year under the principle of interprovincial responsibility allocation according to the carbon quota of the power industry in the tth year of the corresponding region and the actual carbon emission of the power industry in the region i in the tth year; i,t , and the formula is:

[0077] Cost_interprovincial i,t = (Actual_emissions i,t - Allocation i,t ) * Price t ; wherein

[0078] Allocation i,t represents the carbon quota of the power industry in the region i in the tth year; and Actual_emissions i,t represents the actual carbon emission of the power industry in the region i in the tth year.

[0079] It should be noted that the emission reduction cost of different regions and time periods is further evaluated to provide a data basis for subsequent carbon regulation.

[0080] According to the embodiment of the present application, the formula for obtaining the actual carbon emission of the power industry in the region i in the tth year according to the total historical carbon emission of the power industry in the region i and the carbon emission of the power industry in the tth year predicted by the intergenerational emission reduction model is specifically:

[0081] wherein t belongs to m, Hisemissions t represents the historical carbon emission of the power industry in the region i in the tth year, and Actual_emissions i,t represents the actual carbon emission of the power industry in the region i in the tth year.

[0082] According to the embodiment of the present application, it further comprises:

[0083] obtaining the actual carbon emission of the power industry in the region i in the previous year according to the carbon emission data of the power industry in previous years.

[0084] subtracting the carbon quota of the power industry in the corresponding region in the previous year from the actual carbon emission of the power industry in the region i in the previous year to obtain a carbon emission difference value;

[0085] dividing the carbon emission difference value by the carbon quota of the power industry in the corresponding region in the previous year to obtain a carbon quota matching difference degree of the corresponding region;

[0086] when the carbon quota matching difference degree of the corresponding region is in the preset matching degree range, the carbon quota of the power industry in the corresponding region is normal;

[0087] when the carbon quota matching difference degree of the corresponding region is not in the preset matching degree range, generating an optimization warning information of the carbon quota of the power industry in the corresponding region, and adjusting the carbon quota of the power industry in the region based on the optimization warning information.

[0088] It should be noted that the carbon quota and the actual carbon emission of each year are compared and analyzed to further optimize the rationality of the carbon quota.

[0089] According to the embodiment of the present application, the step of adjusting the carbon quota of the power industry in the region based on the optimization warning information specifically comprises:

[0090] when the carbon quota matching difference degree of the region i is lower than the minimum value in the preset matching degree range, subtracting the minimum value in the preset matching degree range from the carbon quota matching difference degree of the region i to obtain a first difference value;

[0091] multiplying the first difference value by a preset optimization base to obtain an optimization weight of the power industry in the corresponding region i in the current year;

[0092] when the carbon quota matching difference degree of the region i is higher than the maximum value in the preset matching degree range, subtracting the maximum value in the preset matching degree range from the carbon quota matching difference degree of the region i to obtain a second difference value;

[0093] multiplying the second difference value by the preset optimization base to obtain the optimization weight of the power industry in the corresponding region i in the current year;

[0094] multiplying the carbon quota of the power industry in the corresponding region in the tth year by the optimization weight of the power industry in the corresponding region i in the current year to obtain a product, and adding the carbon quota of the power industry in the corresponding region in the tth year to obtain the carbon quota of the power industry in the region i after optimization.

[0095] It should be noted that the minimum value in the preset matching degree range is less than zero, and the maximum value is greater than zero, for example, the preset matching degree range is [―10%, 10%], the minimum value in the preset matching degree range is -10%, and the maximum value is 10%; the preset optimization base is set by a person skilled in the art, for example, set to 0.7.

[0096] According to the embodiment of the present application, the method further comprises: extracting a set proportion from each regional quota as an emission reduction fund; if the carbon quota matching difference in the region i is greater than the maximum value in the preset matching range, multiplying the carbon quota in the emission reduction fund by a preset subsidy weight to obtain a subsidy carbon quota, and then distributing the subsidy carbon quota to the region i.

[0097] It should be noted that the emission reduction fund is used to encourage each region to invest in the development of low-carbon technologies, for example, the set proportion is 5%, and the preset subsidy weight is dynamically set according to the actual situation, wherein the smaller the number of all regions in which the carbon quota matching difference is greater than the maximum value in the preset matching range, the greater the corresponding subsidy weight.

[0098] The application discloses a carbon quota allocation method for the Chinese power industry, which takes into account intergenerational and interprovincial fairness, and comprises the following steps: obtaining annual national carbon emission data and annual power industry carbon emission data; predicting the carbon emission of the power industry in the tth year based on an intergenerational emission reduction model and according to the annual national carbon emission data and the annual power industry carbon emission data; and multiplying the carbon emission of the power industry in the tth year by the adjusted cumulative carbon intensity of the set regional power industry to obtain the carbon quota of the power industry in the tth year corresponding to the set region. The application sets an upper limit for intergenerational carbon quota, introduces an adjustment mechanism for carbon transfer responsibility based on regional power dispatching, and effectively alleviates the problem of carbon responsibility imbalance caused by cross-regional power dispatching. Meanwhile, the application quantifies the emission reduction economic cost of each period and each region, thereby providing a data basis for carbon regulation.

[0099] In several embodiments provided in the present application, it should be understood that the disclosed devices and methods can be implemented in other manners. The above described device embodiments are only schematic. For example, the division of the units is only a logical function division. There can be another division manner for the actual implementation, for example, multiple units or components can be combined or integrated into another system, or some features can be ignored or not executed. In addition, the displayed or discussed coupling, direct coupling or communication connection between the components can be indirect coupling or communication connection through some interfaces, devices or units, and can be electrical, mechanical or other forms.

[0100] The units described as separate components can or can not be physically separate, and the components displayed as units can or can not be physical units; they can be located in one place, or distributed on multiple network units; and some or all of the units can be selected according to actual needs to achieve the purpose of the present embodiment.

[0101] In addition, each function unit in each embodiment of the present application can be integrated in one processing unit, or each unit can be separately taken as one unit, or two or more units can be integrated in one unit; the integrated unit can be realized in the form of hardware or in the form of hardware plus software function unit.

[0102] Those skilled in the art can understand that all or part of the steps of the above-mentioned method embodiments can be completed by program instruction related hardware, and the foregoing program can be stored in a computer readable storage medium, and the program executes the steps including the above-mentioned method embodiments when executed; and the foregoing storage medium includes a mobile storage device, a read-only memory (ROM), a random access memory (RAM), a magnetic disc or an optical disc, and various storage medium capable of storing program codes.

[0103] Alternatively, when the integrated unit of the present application is realized in the form of a software function module and sold or used as an independent product, it can also be stored in a computer readable storage medium. Based on such understanding, the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present application can be embodied in the form of a software product, and the computer software product is stored in a storage medium, includes several instructions to make a computer device (which can be a personal computer, a server, or a network device, etc.) execute all or part of the methods described in the embodiments of the present application. The foregoing storage medium includes a mobile storage device, a ROM, a RAM, a magnetic disc or an optical disc, and various storage medium capable of storing program codes.

Claims

1. A carbon quota allocation method for China's power industry that takes into account both intergenerational and interprovincial fairness, characterized by: include: Obtain historical national carbon emission data and historical power industry carbon emission data; Based on the intergenerational emission reduction model, and according to the national carbon emission data and the carbon emission data of the power industry over the years, the carbon emissions of the power industry in year t are predicted; Multiply the carbon emissions of the power industry in year t by the adjusted cumulative carbon intensity of the power industry in the set region to obtain the carbon quota of the power industry in the corresponding set region in year t.

2. A carbon quota allocation method for China's power industry that takes into account both intergenerational and interprovincial fairness according to claim 1, characterized in that: The formula for predicting the carbon emissions of the power industry in year t based on the intergenerational emission reduction model and historical national carbon emission data and historical power industry carbon emission data is as follows: Forecast_Emission t = f(IAM_Emission t , Nemission t , Pemission t ); where F orecast_Emission t represents the carbon emissions of the power industry in year t predicted by the intergenerational emission reduction model, Nemission t represents the national carbon emissions in year t, t IAM_Emission represents the carbon emissions of the power industry in year t, t represents the national carbon emissions in year t under the intergenerational emission reduction model.

3. The method for allocating carbon quotas for China's power industry that takes into account both intergenerational and interprovincial fairness according to claim 2 is characterized in that: The formula for obtaining the national carbon emissions in year t under the intergenerational emission reduction model is: IAM_Emission t =BAU_Emission t ―W t , where BAU_Emission t represents the carbon emissions under the BAU scenario, Where t=1,2,…, T is the emission reduction period, τ is the economic emission reduction index, W t is the emission reduction in period t, r is the discount rate; b is a constant; S represents the lower limit of the total emission reduction from period 0 to period T, satisfying 4. The method for allocating carbon quotas for China's power industry that takes into account both intergenerational and interprovincial fairness according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The steps for obtaining the adjusted cumulative carbon intensity of the power industry in the specified region specifically include: Based on the carbon emission data of the power industry over the years, the direct and implicit carbon emissions of the power industry in each region were obtained; Construct a power input and output balance matrix for each region based on the direct and implicit carbon emissions of the power industry in each region; According to the power input-output balance matrix, the power production-consumption matrix Z and the direct carbon emissions of regional power generation are obtained; According to the electricity production-consumption matrix Z and the direct carbon emissions of regional power generation, the emission matrix F in electricity of power production region i and power consumption region j is constructed, and its formula is: in It is e p The diagonal matrix on the diagonal, e p direct carbon emissions from generating electricity for the region; Adjust the adjusted cumulative carbon intensity of the power industry in region i based on the emissions matrix F. i , the formula is: Emission i，t represents the carbon emissions of region i in year t, P i，t represents the power generation of region i in year t, Among them F i，j，t and F j，i，t Respectively represent the sum of the i-th row and i-th column in the matrix F; Trans i，t represents the carbon emission transfer of the power industry in region i in year t.

5. The method for allocating carbon quotas for China's power industry that takes into account both intergenerational and interprovincial fairness according to claim 1 is characterized in that: After the carbon emissions of the power industry in year t are predicted, the following is also included: According to the intergenerational emission reduction model, the emission reduction amount W of the power industry in year t t , we can get the emission reduction cost Cost_intergenerational in year t under the principle of intergenerational responsibility distribution. i,t , the formula is: Cost_intergenerational i,t =W t *Price t ; Price t represents the carbon price in year t.

6. The method for allocating carbon quotas for China's power industry that takes into account both intergenerational and interprovincial fairness according to claim 1 is characterized in that: After obtaining the carbon quota for the power industry in the corresponding set region in year t, the method further includes: Obtain the carbon emissions of the power industry in year t predicted by the intergenerational emission reduction model; According to the carbon emission data of the power industry over the years, the total historical carbon emissions of the power industry in region i are obtained; Assuming that the proportion of the power industry in region i in national emissions remains unchanged, the actual carbon emissions of the power industry in region i in year t are obtained based on the total historical carbon emissions of the power industry in region i and the carbon emissions of the power industry in year t predicted by the intergenerational emission reduction model; According to the carbon quota of the power industry in the corresponding set region in year t and the actual carbon emissions of the power industry in region i in year t, the emission reduction cost of region i in year t under the principle of interprovincial responsibility allocation is obtained: Cost_interprovincial i,t , the formula is: Cost_interprovincial i,t =(Actual_emissions i,t ―Allocation i,t )*Price t ; where Allocation i,t represents the carbon quota of the power industry in region i in year t; Actual_emissions i,t represents the actual carbon emissions of the power industry in region i in year t.

7. A carbon quota allocation method for China's power industry that takes into account both intergenerational and interprovincial fairness according to claim 6, characterized in that: The formula for obtaining the actual carbon emissions of the power industry in region i in year t based on the total historical carbon emissions of the power industry in region i and the carbon emissions of the power industry in year t predicted by the intergenerational emission reduction model is as follows: Where t belongs to m, Hisemissions t Actual_emissions represents the historical carbon emissions of the power industry in region i in year t. i,t represents the actual carbon emissions of the power industry in region i in year t.

8. The method for allocating carbon quotas for China's power industry that takes into account both intergenerational and interprovincial fairness according to claim 1 is characterized in that: Also includes: According to the carbon emission data of the power industry over the years, the actual carbon emissions of the power industry in region i in the previous year are obtained; Subtract the carbon quota of the power industry in the corresponding region in the previous year from the actual carbon emissions of the power industry in region i in the previous year to obtain the carbon emissions difference; Divide the carbon emission difference by the carbon quota of the power industry in the corresponding region in the previous year to obtain the carbon quota matching difference of the corresponding region; When the carbon quota matching difference of the corresponding region is within the preset matching range, the carbon quota of the power industry in the corresponding region is normal; When the carbon quota matching difference of the corresponding region is not within the preset matching range, optimization warning information of the carbon quota of the power industry in the corresponding region is generated, and the carbon quota of the power industry in the region is adjusted based on the optimization warning information.

9. A carbon quota allocation method for China's power industry that takes into account both intergenerational and interprovincial fairness according to claim 8, characterized in that: The step of adjusting the carbon quota of the power industry in the region based on the optimized warning information specifically includes: When the carbon quota matching difference of region i is lower than the minimum value in the preset matching range, subtract the minimum value in the preset matching range from the carbon quota matching difference of region i to obtain a first difference; Multiply the first difference by the preset optimization base to obtain the optimization weight of the power industry in the corresponding region i in the current year; When the carbon quota matching difference of region i is higher than the maximum value in the preset matching range, the carbon quota matching difference of region i is subtracted from the maximum value in the preset matching range to obtain a second difference; Multiply the second difference by the preset optimization base to obtain the optimization weight of the power industry in the corresponding region i in the current year; Multiply the carbon quota of the power industry in the corresponding region in year t by the optimized weight of the power industry in region i in the current year, and add the product to the carbon quota of the power industry in the corresponding region in year t to obtain the optimized carbon quota of the power industry in region i.

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