Power load fluctuation range prediction method and device

A technology of power load and fluctuation range, which is applied in the field of power system load forecasting, can solve problems such as low signal-to-noise ratio, large noise components, and low accuracy of prediction results, and achieve smooth sequence fluctuations, accurate results, and weakened randomness Effect

CN111047074APending Publication Date: 2020-04-21CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RES INST +2
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Patent Information

Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Applications(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
Publication Date
2020-04-21

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Abstract

The invention relates to a power load fluctuation range prediction method and device. The method comprises: obtaining a fuzzy matrix corresponding to a historical power load time sequence at a currentmoment and before the current moment; performing phase space reconstruction on each row of fuzzy data in the fuzzy matrix to obtain a phase space matrix corresponding to each row of fuzzy data; and determining a power load fluctuation range in a future time period after the current moment according to the phase space matrix corresponding to each row of fuzzy data. A phase space matrix corresponding to a historical power load time sequence is obtained; the load fluctuation range of the prediction moment is obtained by using the phase space matrix, the chaos and uncertainty of the power load time sequence are considered, the prediction result is more accurate than the result obtained in the prior art, and a powerful support can be provided for the formulation of a subsequent power distribution plan.
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Description

technical field

[0001] The invention relates to the technical field of electric power system load forecasting, in particular to a method and device for predicting electric load fluctuation range. Background technique

[0002] With the development of big data and artificial intelligence technology, more and more load forecasting technologies have been applied. However, the chaos and variability of power load time series bring challenges to the application of accurate power load forecasting technology. How to solve the prediction problem of chaotic power load sequence has become a difficult research problem. In the existing research, this problem is solved by combining the linear model and the nonlinear model, that is, after the linear model is used for modeling, the prediction result of the linear model is subtracted from the original sequence to obtain the residual item containing the nonlinear component; then Use the nonlinear model to predict the residual item to obtain ...

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Embodiment Construction

[0048] The specific implementation manners of the present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0049] In order to make the purpose, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments It is a part of embodiments of the present invention, but not all embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by persons of ordinary skill in the art without making creative efforts belong to the protection scope of the present invention.

[0050] A method for predicting electric load fluctuation range in the present invention, such as figure 1 As shown, the method includes:

[0051] Obtain the fuzzy matrix corresponding...