A road section time-varying traffic flow prediction method for vehicle-road collaboration

Abstract

The present invention discloses a method for predicting time-varying traffic flow of road sections for vehicle-road collaboration, comprising the following steps: constructing an initial road section fleet based on a prediction time span; calculating the operational characteristic parameters of the road data acquisition section fleet; calculating the operational characteristic initial value of the road control section reordering fleet; calculating the operational characteristic parameters of the vehicle flow exiting and entering the control section fleet; predicting the time-varying traffic flow of road sections. The prediction method of the present invention can more accurately calculate the traffic flow of road sections while taking into account the time-varying characteristics of traffic flow, thereby improving the ability to accurately perceive the time-varying traffic flow of road sections and improving the level of road traffic management.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to a road vehicle flow prediction method, in particular to a road section vehicle flow time-varying flow prediction method for vehicle-road collaboration, belonging to the technical field of intelligent traffic management and control. Background Art

[0002] In recent years, with the rapid development of road traffic, highways have played an extremely important role in long-distance travel, urban interconnection, and logistics transportation, ensuring the safety and convenience of our travel. At the same time, road traffic flow management has attracted more and more attention and has become the focus of intelligent traffic management. By analyzing the traffic flow change patterns at historical moments, it is possible to timely predict the traffic flow at the next moment and implement active control. This is also the key to the transformation of road traffic management from "passive" to "active". Accurate and real-time prediction of the time-varying traffic flow of road sections is very important in the process of road traffic management. However, due to the sparse distribution of traffic detection equipment in the current road sections, it is difficult to provide a large range of cross-sectional flow information, and the construction and maintenance costs are high simply by adding detection equipment.

[0003] Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the existing road collection section data information, construct an initial fleet data set by constructing road collection sections, obtain the fleet operation characteristic parameters of the road data collection section, and recalculate the fleet operation characteristic parameters of the vehicle flow leaving the control section and the fleet operation characteristic parameters of the vehicle flow entering the control section after passing each control section, so as to obtain the fleet operation characteristic data set of the predicted section and realize the time-varying traffic flow prediction of the road section. Summary of the invention

[0004] The main purpose of the present invention is to overcome the shortcomings of the prior art and provide a method for predicting time-varying traffic flow in road sections for vehicle-road collaboration. The method can take into account the impact of time-varying traffic flow in a vehicle-road collaboration environment and more accurately realize the prediction of time-varying traffic flow in road sections, which has great industrial utilization value.

[0005] In order to achieve the above object, the technical solution adopted by the present invention is:

[0006] A method for predicting time-varying traffic flow of a road section for vehicle-road collaboration includes the following steps:

[0007] 1) Construct an initial fleet of road sections based on the prediction time span;

[0008] According to the collected vehicle and road related data, the road control sections are divided, the road data collection backtracking period is determined, and the initial road section fleet is constructed; the road section is the data collection section as the initial section;

[0009] 2) Calculate the fleet operation characteristic parameters of the road data collection section;

[0010] According to the fleet collection in the initial fleet data set, the number of vehicles passing through the data collection section of each fleet in each time period is calculated respectively; according to the instantaneous speed of the vehicles in the initial fleet data set, the average speed of each fleet in each time period is calculated respectively; according to the spatial position of each fleet vehicle in the data collection section, the horizontal distance from the spatial position point of each fleet in each time period to the data collection section is calculated respectively, so as to calculate the time when the spatial position point of each fleet passes through the data collection section; the data collection section is used as the first starting section, and the data collection section can collect data, such as collecting data such as vehicle speed and flow;

[0011] 3) Calculate the initial values ​​of the operation characteristics of the reordering fleet of the road control section;

[0012] According to the fleet operation characteristic data set of each fleet at the previous control section, the initial value of the time when each fleet arrives at the current control section is calculated respectively; according to the time when each fleet arrives at the current control section, the fleet number is re-sorted; according to the fleet operation characteristic data set, the initial value of the time corresponding to each fleet is calculated respectively; according to the fleet number re-sorted at the current control section, the initial speed interval range of the fleet in each time period is divided;

[0013] 4) Calculate the operational characteristic parameters of the vehicle fleet exiting and entering the control section;

[0014] According to the speed of each vehicle leaving the road, the exit speed of each vehicle in each time period is ranked; by comparing the exit speed of each vehicle in each time period with the initial speed interval of the fleet, the fleet number of the traffic flow leaving the control section is reconstructed; according to the reconstructed fleet situation, the running variable characteristic parameters of the fleet leaving the control section are recalculated;

[0015] According to the vehicle speed of each vehicle entering the road, the speed ranking of each vehicle in each time period is divided; by comparing the vehicle speed of each time period with the initial speed interval of the fleet, the fleet number of the traffic flow entering the control section is reconstructed; according to the reconstructed fleet situation, the running variable characteristic parameters of the fleet entering the control section are recalculated;

[0016] 5) Predict the time-varying traffic flow of road sections;

[0017] According to the fleet operation characteristic data set of each fleet at the previous control section, the initial value of the time when each fleet arrives at the predicted section is calculated respectively; according to the specific time and sequence of each fleet arriving at the predicted section, the fleet number of the traffic leaving the predicted section is reconstructed; and the traffic flow in the predicted period is calculated through the operation characteristic data set of each fleet.

[0018] The present invention is further configured as follows: in the step 1), an initial road section fleet based on a predicted time span is constructed, specifically,

[0019] 1-1) Divide the road control section

[0020] The road between the data collection section and the prediction section is divided into w sections with the control section as the interval, and numbered in sequence;

[0021] 1-2) Determine the road data collection backtracking period

[0022] According to the prediction period [T s , T e ], the instantaneous speed of each vehicle passing through the data collection section on the lth day and the jth vehicle passing through the data collection section Arrange from small to large to get the speed v corresponding to the 85% and 15% vehicles 85％ 、v 15％ ; and according to the distance d between the prediction section and the data collection section p , calculate the start and end point backtracking time of the road data collection section According to the start and end point tracing time, calculate the start and end point time T of the data collection section. s(b) =T s -t s(b) , T e(b) =T e -t e(b) ;

[0023] 1-3) Constructing the initial fleet of road sections

[0024] According to the calculated data collection section, trace back the start and end time periods [T s(b) , T e(b) ], according to the time span Δt (generally 1-5 minutes) of the cross-section traffic flow prediction, the time period is divided into M(b) time spans; according to the instantaneous speed of the n(b)th vehicle passing through the data collection section in the m(b)th time period, Number the vehicles from small to large according to their speed According to the numbered vehicles, (k(b) can be 5-10) vehicles are divided into one group, forming k(b) fleets with speed differences. The set of k(b) fleets in the data collection section of the m(b)th period is

[0025]

[0026] The lower right subscript m(b) of the element A in each set represents the time period, and the upper right subscript value represents the number of vehicles in the fleet k(b).

[0027] The present invention is further configured as follows: the step 2) constructs an initial road section fleet based on the predicted time span, specifically,

[0028] 2-1) Calculate the fleet operation characteristic parameters of the road data collection section

[0029] According to the vehicle collection of the fleet, calculate the initial fleet in the m(b)th period The number of vehicles passing through the data collection section

[0030] 2-2) Calculate the average speed of the fleet in the road data collection section

[0031] According to the instantaneous speed of the n(b)th vehicle passing through the data collection section in the m(b)th time period of each fleet Calculate the average speed of the k(b)th convoy in the m(b)th time period respectively

[0032] In the formula, the lower right subscript m(b) of the vehicle speed v represents the time period, and the upper right subscript value represents the number of vehicles in the fleet k(b);

[0033] 2-3) Calculate the arrival time of the convoy at the road data collection section

[0034] According to the spatial position of each fleet vehicle in the data collection section, the horizontal distance between the spatial position of each vehicle and the data collection section at the end of the collection period According to the number of vehicles of each fleet passing through the data collection section in each time period

[0035] Calculate the horizontal distance between the spatial position point of the k(b)th convoy in the m(b)th time period and the data collection section at the end of the collection period:

[0036]

[0037] In the formula, the lower right subscript m(b) of the horizontal distance d represents the time period, and the upper right subscript value represents the number of vehicles in the fleet k(b);

[0038] According to the data collection section, trace back to the starting time T s(b) , according to the time span Δt of the time-varying traffic flow prediction of the time period m(b) and the section, and the horizontal distance from the spatial position point of the fleet at the end of the collection period to the data collection section The average speed of the fleet Calculate the time when the k(b)th convoy spatial position point passes through the data collection section in the m(b)th time period

[0039] The present invention is further configured as follows: the step 3) calculates the initial value of the operation characteristic of the reordering fleet of the road control section, specifically,

[0040] 3-1) Calculate the initial value of the convoy arrival time at the road control section

[0041] Based on the fleet operation characteristic dataset at the h-1th control section According to the horizontal distance d between the spatial position point of the collected control section h-1 and the control section h (h-1) , the fleet The time when passing through the h-1th control section and average speed

[0042] Calculate the initial value of the time when each team arrives at the hth control section

[0043] 3-2) Rearrange the road control section to pass the convoy

[0044] According to the specific time sequence of each convoy arriving at the hth control section, calculate the earliest starting time of all convoys arriving at the exit ramp section

[0045] According to the time span Δt of the cross-section traffic time-varying flow prediction, the characteristic analysis periods ([T h , T h +Δt), [T h +Δt,T h +2Δt),…,[T h +(m(h)-1)Δt,T h +m(h)Δt));

[0046] Analyze the average speed of each fleet and time period according to the divided characteristics Number the fleet from small to large according to the average speed

[0047] 3-3) Calculate the initial value of the fleet operation characteristics of the road control section

[0048] The vehicle flow rate based on the initial value of the operating characteristic data of each fleet Initial value of average vehicle speed after rearrangement The initial value of the moment when the convoy reaches the h-1th control section is calculated, which is consistent with the value of the convoy at the h-1th control section.

[0049] 3-4) Calculate the initial speed range of the fleet in the road control section

[0050] Renumbering of fleets according to control sections Divide the convoy passing through the h-th control section in the m(h)th time period The corresponding initial speed range is in

[0051]

[0052] The present invention is further configured as follows: the step 4) calculates the operational characteristic parameters of the vehicle fleet when the vehicle flows out of the control section, specifically,

[0053] 4-1) Count the speed of vehicles leaving the control section

[0054] According to the rth control section, the vehicle exits the control section and the vehicle speed exiting the road Number the o(r) vehicles that leave the road in the m(r)th time period from small to large

[0055] 4-2) Reconstruct the traffic flow out of the control section and through the convoy

[0056] According to the comparison of the vehicle exit speed in the m(r)th period of the traffic flow exiting the control section r The initial speed range of the vehicles in the convoy Determine which initial speed intervals of each fleet within the time period the speed of the outgoing vehicle belongs to, and then these outgoing vehicles belong to the corresponding fleets respectively;

[0057] According to the convoy to which the outgoing vehicle belongs, the control section r is driven out of the convoy in the traffic flow. Eliminate outgoing vehicles;

[0058] 4-3) Calculate the variable characteristic parameters of the fleet when the vehicle flow leaves the control section

[0059] Depending on whether the convoy has been removed, if the convoy has not been removed, the convoy does not need to be reconstructed, and the initial value of the convoy operation characteristics at the exit control section r is calculated. in, It represents the characteristic parameters of the fleet operation at the control section r;

[0060] According to whether the fleet has excluded vehicles, for the fleet with excluded vehicles, the characteristic parameters of the fleet are recalculated after reconstruction; according to the fleet 1 vehicle was removed Situation and fleet operation characteristic parameters at control section r Calculate the average traffic flow of the reconstructed fleet Average speed In the formula, is the initial value of the average vehicle speed after the control section r is rearranged according to step 3); according to the convoy when the arriving traffic leaves the control section r Distance from the r-1th control section (The lower right corner indicates that the distance is from control section r to the r-1th control section) and calculate the time when the arriving traffic flows leave the control section. Where, d (r-1) It is the horizontal distance between the spatial position point of control section r-1 and control section r.

[0061] The present invention is further configured as follows: the step 5) calculates the operational characteristic parameters of the vehicle fleet entering the control section, specifically,

[0062] 5-1) Statistics on the speed of vehicles entering and exiting the control section

[0063] According to the g-th control section, the vehicle flow enters the control section and the speed of the vehicle entering the road Number the vehicles with i(g) vehicles driving off the road in the m(g)th time period from small to large

[0064] 5-2) Reconstruct the traffic flow entering the control section and passing the convoy

[0065] According to the comparison of the vehicle speed entering the control section g in the m(g)th period The initial speed range of the vehicles in the convoy Determine which initial speed intervals of each fleet within the time period the incoming vehicle's speed belongs to, and then these incoming vehicles belong to the corresponding fleets respectively;

[0066] in,

[0067] According to the fleet to which the incoming vehicle belongs, the control section g is driven into the fleet in the traffic flow. Increase for incoming vehicles;

[0068] 5-3) Calculate the variable characteristic parameters of the fleet when the vehicle flow enters the control section

[0069] Depending on whether the fleet has added vehicles, if there are no additional vehicles in the fleet, the fleet does not need to be reconstructed, and the initial value of the fleet operation characteristics at the entry control section g is calculated. in, represents the operational characteristic parameters of the fleet at the control section g;

[0070] According to whether the fleet has added vehicles, for the fleet with added vehicles, the characteristic parameters of the fleet are recalculated according to the reconstruction; according to the fleet 1 vehicle was removed There are cases and fleet operation characteristic parameters at control section g Calculate the average traffic flow of the reconstructed fleet Average speed In the formula, is the initial value of the average vehicle speed after the control section g is rearranged according to step 3), is the vehicle flow of the control section g according to the initial value of the characteristic data in step 3); according to the vehicle flow arriving at the control section g when the fleet Distance from the g-1th control section (The lower right corner indicates that the distance is from control section g to the g-1th control section) and calculate the time when the traffic enters the control section. Where, d (g-1) It is the horizontal distance between the spatial position point of control section g-1 and control section g.

[0071] The present invention is further configured as follows: the step 6) predicts the time-varying traffic flow of the road section, specifically,

[0072] 6-1) Calculate the initial value of the time when the team passes the predicted section of the road

[0073] According to the fleet operation characteristic data set at the control section w The distance d(w) between the control section w and the predicted section is used to calculate the initial value of the time when each team arrives at the predicted section.

[0074] in, is the average traffic flow of each k(w) fleet corresponding to the control section w, is the average speed of each k(w) fleet corresponding to the control section w, is the passing time of each k(w) convoy corresponding to the control section w;

[0075] 6-2) Reconstructing the predicted road section through the convoy

[0076] According to the time range of the predicted start and end time [T s , T e ] and the prediction time span Δt, and re-divide the prediction section time-varying traffic flow prediction period [T s , T s +Δt), [T s +Δt,T s +2Δt),…,[T e -Δt, T e ];

[0077] According to the specific time and order of arrival of each convoy at the predicted section, the convoys are renumbered according to the average speed from small to large during the analysis period of the predicted section.

[0078] 6-3) Predicting time-varying traffic flow on road sections

[0079] Since the prediction section does not involve reconstruction of the fleet, the fleet traffic volume and average speed of the prediction section are consistent with those of the w-th control section, and the fleet operation characteristic data set of the m(p)th prediction period at the prediction section is determined. in, is the average traffic flow of each k(p) fleet corresponding to the m(p)th prediction period of the prediction section, is the average speed of each k(p) convoy corresponding to the m(p)th prediction period of the prediction section, is the passing time of each k(p) convoy corresponding to the m(p)th prediction period of the prediction section;

[0080] The fleet operation characteristic data set of the m(p)th prediction period at the prediction section Calculate the traffic flow of the m(p)th prediction period in the prediction section

[0081] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0082] The present invention provides a method for predicting time-varying traffic flow of a road section for vehicle-road collaboration, which divides the road sections into several sections according to the control sections, divides the traffic flow into several fleets according to the time-varying speed characteristics, analyzes and determines the operation characteristic parameters of each fleet passing through the control section and the operation characteristic parameters of the traffic flow entering / exiting the control section, and calculates the traffic flow of the predicted section in the predicted period according to the traffic flow of each fleet when passing through each control section;

[0083] Therefore, the present invention can more accurately calculate the traffic flow conditions of a road section while taking into account the time-varying characteristics of the traffic flow, thereby improving the ability to accurately perceive the time-varying traffic flow of the road section and improving the level of road traffic management.

[0084] The above content is only an overview of the technical solution of the present invention. In order to more clearly understand the technical means of the present invention, the present invention is further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0085] Figure 1 is a flow chart of this embodiment;

[0086] Figure 2 It is a schematic diagram of the division of a road section control section in step 1) of this embodiment;

[0087] Figure 3 is a schematic diagram of a road section control section division in another embodiment;

[0088] Figure 4 In another embodiment, the first fleet Schematic diagram of the driving process. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0089] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0090] Embodiment 1:

[0091] The present invention provides a method for predicting time-varying traffic flow of road sections oriented to vehicle-road collaboration. Figure 1 As shown, the following steps are included:

[0092] 1) Construct an initial fleet of road sections based on the predicted time span

[0093] According to the collected vehicle and road-related data, the road control sections are divided, the road data collection backtracking period is determined, and the initial road section fleet is constructed;

[0094] Specifically,

[0095] 1-1) Divide the road control section

[0096] The road between the data collection section and the prediction section is divided into w sections using the control section as the interval. Figure 2 As shown, and numbered in sequence;

[0097] 1-2) Determine the road data collection backtracking period

[0098] According to the prediction period ([T s , T e ]) the instantaneous speed of each vehicle passing through the data collection section, and the instantaneous speed of the jth vehicle passing through the data collection section on the lth day Arrange from small to large to get the speed v corresponding to the 85% and 15% vehicles 85％ 、v 15％ ; and according to the distance d between the prediction section and the data collection section p , calculate the start and end point backtracking time of the road data collection section According to the start and end point tracing time, calculate the start and end point time T of the data collection section. s(b) =T s -t s(b) , T e(b) =T e -t e(b) ;

[0099] 1-3) Constructing the initial fleet of road sections

[0100] According to the calculated data collection section, trace back to the start and end time periods ([T s(b) , T e(b) ]), according to the time span Δt (generally 1-5 minutes) of the cross-section traffic time-varying flow prediction, the time period is divided into M(b) time spans; according to the instantaneous speed of the n(b)th vehicle passing through the collection section in the m(b)th time span, Number the vehicles from small to large according to their speed According to the numbered vehicles According to each (k(b) can be 5-10) vehicles are divided into one group, forming k(b) fleets with speed differences, and the collection of k(b) fleets of the data collection section in the m(b)th time period is

[0101] 2) Calculate the fleet operation characteristic parameters of the road data collection section;

[0102] According to the fleet collection in the initial fleet data set, the number of vehicles passing through the data collection section of each fleet in each time period is calculated respectively; according to the instantaneous speed of the vehicles in the initial fleet data set, the average speed of each fleet in each time period is calculated respectively; according to the spatial position of each fleet vehicle in the data collection section, the horizontal distance between the spatial position point of each fleet in each time period and the data collection section is calculated respectively, so as to calculate the time when the spatial position point of each fleet passes through the data collection section;

[0103] Specifically,

[0104] 2-1) Calculate the fleet operation characteristic parameters of the road data collection section

[0105] According to the vehicle collection of the fleet, calculate the initial fleet in the m(b)th period The number of vehicles passing through the data collection section

[0106] 2-2) Calculate the average speed of the fleet in the road data collection section

[0107] According to the instantaneous speed of each fleet vehicle passing through the data collection section Calculate the average speed of the k(b)th convoy in the m(b)th time period respectively

[0108] 2-3) Calculate the arrival time of the convoy at the road data collection section

[0109] According to the spatial position of each fleet vehicle in the data collection section, the horizontal distance between the spatial position of each vehicle and the data collection section at the end of the collection period According to the number of vehicles of each fleet passing through the data collection section in each time period

[0110] Calculate the horizontal distance between the spatial position point of the k(b)th convoy in the m(b)th time period and the data collection section at the end of the collection period

[0111] According to the data collection section, trace back to the time T s(b) , according to the time span Δt of the time-varying traffic flow prediction of the time period m(b) and the horizontal distance from the spatial position of the fleet at the end of the collection period to the data collection section The average speed of the fleet

[0112] Calculate the time when the k(b)th convoy spatial position point passes through the data collection section in the m(b)th time period

[0113] 3) Calculate the initial values ​​of the operation characteristics of the reordering fleet of the road control section;

[0114] According to the fleet operation characteristic data set of each fleet at the previous control section, the initial value of the time when each fleet arrives at the current control section is calculated respectively; according to the time when each fleet arrives at the current control section, the fleet number is re-ordered; according to the fleet operation characteristic data set, the initial value of the time corresponding to each fleet is calculated respectively; according to the fleet renumbering situation of the current control section, the initial speed interval range of the fleet in each time period is divided;

[0115] Specifically,

[0116] 3-1) Calculate the initial value of the convoy arrival time at the road control section

[0117] Based on the fleet operation characteristic data set at the control section (b) According to the horizontal distance d from the spatial position point of the acquired control section b to the control section (h) (b) , the fleet The time when passing through the control section (b) and average speed

[0118] Calculate the initial value of the time when each team arrives at the hth control section

[0119] 3-2) Rearrange the road control section to pass the convoy

[0120] According to the specific time sequence of each convoy arriving at the hth control section, calculate the earliest starting time of all convoys arriving at the exit ramp section

[0121] According to the time span Δt of the cross-section traffic time-varying flow prediction, the characteristic analysis period ([T h , T h +Δt), [T h +Δt,T h +2Δt),…,[T h +(m(h)-1)Δt,T h +m(h)Δt));

[0122] Analyze the average speed of each fleet and time period according to the divided characteristics Number the fleet from small to large according to the average speed

[0123] 3-3) Calculate the initial value of the fleet operation characteristics of the road control section

[0124] The vehicle flow rate based on the initial value of the operating characteristic data of each fleet Average speed after rearrangement The initial value of the convoy at the h-1th control section is calculated to be consistent with the value of the convoy at the h-1th control section.

[0125] 3-4) Calculate the initial speed range of the fleet in the road control section

[0126] Renumbering of fleets according to control sections Divide the convoy passing through the h-th control section in the m(h)th time period The initial speed range is in

[0127]

[0128] 4) Calculate the operational characteristic parameters of the vehicle fleet when the vehicle flows out of the control section;

[0129] According to the speed of each vehicle leaving the road, the exit speed of each vehicle in each time period is divided into the order; by comparing the exit speed of the vehicle in each time period with the initial speed interval of the convoy, the vehicle flow exiting the convoy is reconstructed; according to the reconstructed convoy conditions, the variable characteristic parameters of the convoy running out of the control section are recalculated;

[0130] Specifically,

[0131] 4-1) Statistics on the speed of vehicles leaving the control section

[0132] According to the rth control section, the vehicle exits the control section and the vehicle speed exiting the road Number the vehicles with o(r) vehicles leaving the road in the m(r)th period from small to large

[0133] 4-2) Reconstruct the traffic flow out of the control section and through the convoy

[0134] According to the comparison of the vehicle exit speed in the m(r)th period of the traffic flow exiting the control section r The initial speed range of the vehicles in the convoy Determine which initial speed intervals of each fleet within the time period the speed of the outgoing vehicle belongs to, and then these outgoing vehicles belong to the corresponding fleets respectively;

[0135] According to the convoy to which the outgoing vehicle belongs, the control section r is driven out of the convoy in the traffic flow. Eliminate outgoing vehicles;

[0136] 4-3) Calculate the variable characteristic parameters of the fleet when the vehicle flow leaves the control section

[0137] Depending on whether the convoy has been removed, if the convoy has not been removed, the convoy does not need to be reconstructed, and the initial value of the convoy operation characteristics at the exit control section r is calculated. in, It represents the characteristic parameters of the fleet operation at the control section r;

[0138] According to whether the fleet has excluded vehicles, for the fleet with excluded vehicles, the characteristic parameters of the fleet are recalculated after reconstruction; according to the fleet 1 vehicle was removed Situation and fleet operation characteristic parameters at control section r Calculate the average traffic flow of the reconstructed fleet Average speed According to the arrival of traffic flow, the convoy exits the control section r Distance from the (r-1)th control section Calculate the time when the arriving traffic flows exit the control section

[0139] 5) Calculate the operational characteristic parameters of the vehicle fleet entering the control section;

[0140] According to the vehicle speed of each vehicle entering the road, the speed ranking of each vehicle in each time period is divided; by comparing the vehicle speed of each time period with the initial speed interval of the fleet, the fleet number of the traffic flow entering the control section is reconstructed; according to the reconstructed fleet situation, the running variable characteristic parameters of the fleet entering the control section are recalculated;

[0141] Specifically,

[0142] 5-1) Statistics on the speed of vehicles entering and exiting the control section

[0143] According to the g-th control section, the vehicle flow enters the control section and the speed of the vehicle entering the road Number the vehicles with i(g) vehicles driving off the road in the m(g)th time period from small to large

[0144] 5-2) Reconstruct the traffic flow entering the control section and passing the convoy

[0145] According to the comparison of the vehicle speed entering the control section g in the m(g)th period The initial speed range of the vehicles in the convoy Determine which initial speed intervals of each fleet within the time period the incoming vehicle's speed belongs to, and then these outgoing vehicles belong to the corresponding fleets respectively;

[0146] According to the fleet to which the incoming vehicle belongs, the control section g is driven into the fleet in the traffic flow. Increase for incoming vehicles;

[0147] 5-3) Calculate the variable characteristic parameters of the fleet when the vehicle flow enters the control section

[0148] Depending on whether the fleet has added vehicles, if there are no additional vehicles in the fleet, the fleet does not need to be reconstructed, and the initial value of the fleet operation characteristics at the entry control section g is calculated. in, represents the operational characteristic parameters of the fleet at the control section g;

[0149] According to whether the fleet has added vehicles, for the fleet with added vehicles, the characteristic parameters of the fleet are recalculated according to the reconstruction; according to the fleet 1 vehicle was removed Situation and fleet operation characteristic parameters at control section r Calculate the average traffic flow of the reconstructed fleet Average speed According to the arrival of traffic flow into the control section g when the convoy Distance from the (g-1)th control section Calculate the time when the arriving traffic enters the control section

[0150] 6) Predict the time-varying traffic flow of road sections;

[0151] According to the fleet operation characteristic data set of each fleet at the previous control section, the initial value of the time when each fleet arrives at the predicted section is calculated respectively; according to the specific time and sequence of each fleet arriving at the predicted section, the fleet number of the traffic leaving the predicted section is reconstructed; and the traffic flow in the predicted period is calculated through the operation characteristic data set of each fleet.

[0152] Specifically,

[0153] 6-1) Calculate the initial value of the time when the team passes the predicted section of the road

[0154] According to the fleet operation characteristic data set at the control section w The distance d between the control section w and the prediction section (w) , calculate the initial value of the time for each team to arrive at the predicted section

[0155] 6-2) Reconstructing the predicted road section through the convoy

[0156] According to the prediction start and end time as the time range [T s , T e ] and the prediction time span Δt, and re-divide the prediction section time-varying traffic flow prediction period ([T s , T s +Δt), [T s +Δt,T s +2Δt),…,[T e -Δt, T e ]);

[0157] According to the specific time and order of arrival of each convoy at the predicted section, the convoys are renumbered according to the average speed from small to large during the analysis period of the predicted section.

[0158] 6-3) Predicting time-varying traffic flow on road sections

[0159] Since the prediction section does not involve reconstruction of the fleet, the fleet traffic volume and average speed of the prediction section are consistent with those of the w-th control section, and the fleet operation characteristic data set of the m(p)th prediction period at the prediction section is determined.

[0160] The fleet operation characteristic data set of the m(p)th prediction period at the prediction section Calculate the traffic flow of the m(p)th prediction period in the prediction section

[0161] Embodiment 2:

[0162] The method for predicting the time-varying traffic flow of a road section in vehicle-road collaboration of the present invention is further described by an example. Figure 3 The diagram shows the division of the road section control section and the schematic diagram of the vehicle exit and entry control section. The following is a specific step of the vehicle-road collaborative road section vehicle flow time-varying flow prediction method of the present invention, and the vehicle flow time-varying flow prediction of the target prediction section is calculated.

[0163] S1: Construct an initial fleet of road sections based on the prediction time span.

[0164] S11: Use the actual survey data to construct and divide the road control sections, specifically the data collection section b, the first control section h, the vehicle entry control section g, the vehicle exit control section r and the prediction section p. Figure 3 As shown, the distance between each control section is 20km;

[0165] S12: By collecting the running data of a certain highway section for four consecutive days from August 1, 2021 to August 4, 2021, this embodiment takes 10:00-11:00 as the prediction period, and obtains the instantaneous speed of each vehicle in the data collection section, and obtains that the speed of 85% is 119 km / h and the speed of 15% is 90 km / h, and determines the distance d between the prediction section and the data collection section p is 60 km, from which the start and end time t of the road data collection section can be calculated s(b) =0.67h, t e(b) =0.50h

[0166] S13: Constructing the initial fleet of road sections

[0167] By using the calculated data collection section to trace back the start and end time periods ([9:20, 10:10]), this embodiment takes the time span Δt of the section traffic time-varying flow prediction as 5 minutes, and divides the time period into 10 time spans, then a total of 100 vehicles are collected in each time span.

[0168] Using the instantaneous speed of the n(b)th vehicle passing through the acquisition section in the 1(b)th time span, (Partial list) As shown in Table 1, vehicles are numbered from small to large according to their speed. (Partial list) As shown in Table 1; According to the numbered vehicles In this embodiment, k(b) is set to 5, so every 20% of the vehicles are divided into one group, forming 5 fleets with speed differences. The set of 5 fleets in the data collection section of the m(b)th time period is

[0169]

[0170]

[0171]

[0172]

[0173] Table 1

[0174] S2: Calculate the fleet operation characteristic parameters of the road data collection section;

[0175] S21: Calculate the operational characteristic parameters of the fleet at the road data collection section, and calculate the initial fleet in the first (b) period according to the vehicle collection of the fleet. The number of vehicles passing through the data collection section

[0176] S22: Calculate the average speed of the fleet at the road data collection section, based on the instantaneous speed of each fleet vehicle passing through the data collection section Calculate the average speed of the k(b)th convoy during the 1(b)th period

[0177] S23: Calculate the arrival time of the convoy at the road data collection section, and calculate the horizontal distance between the spatial position point of the k(b)th convoy at the end time of the collection period in the 1(b)th period and the data collection section

[0178] Calculate the time when the k(b)th convoy spatial position point passes through the data collection section in the 1(b)th time period

[0179] S3: Calculate the initial value of the operation characteristics of the reordering fleet of the road control section;

[0180] S31: Calculate the initial value of the arrival time of the convoy at the road control section

[0181] Based on the fleet operation characteristic data set at the hth control section According to the horizontal distance d from the spatial position point of the acquired control section b to the control section (h) (h-1) =20km, convoy The time when the cross section is collected by b and average speed

[0182] Calculate the initial value of the time when each team arrives at the hth control section

[0183] S32: Rearrange the road control section through the convoy

[0184] By using the specific time sequence of each convoy arriving at the hth control section, the earliest starting time T of all convoys arriving at the exit ramp section is calculated. h =9:28;

[0185] With the help of the time span Δt of the cross-section traffic time-varying flow prediction, the characteristic analysis period at the exit ramp is re-divided into ([9:28, 9:32), [9:32, 9:37), …, [10:13, 10:18));

[0186] Analyze the average speed of each time period and each fleet with the help of the divided characteristics Number the fleet from small to large according to the average speed

[0187] S33: Calculate the initial value of the fleet operation characteristics of the road control section

[0188] The vehicle flow rate based on the initial values ​​of the operating characteristic data of each fleet Average speed The initial value of the moment when the convoy reaches the control section h is calculated, which is consistent with the value of the convoy at the control section b.

[0189] S34: Calculate the initial speed range of the fleet on the road control section

[0190] Renumbering of fleets with the help of S31 control section Divide the fleet passing through the control section h in the first period The initial speed range is

[0191]

[0192] S4: Calculate the operational characteristic parameters of the vehicle fleet when the vehicle flows out of the control section;

[0193] S41: Count the speed of vehicles leaving the control section as shown in Table 2. According to the rth control section, the speed of vehicles leaving the control section and the speed of vehicles leaving the road As shown in Table 2, the vehicles with o(r) vehicles leaving the road in the first period are numbered from small to large.

[0194]

[0195] Table 2

[0196] S42: Reconstructing the flow of vehicles leaving the control section through the convoy

[0197] The vehicles that leave the road calculated by S42 are numbered from small to large. Determine which initial speed intervals of each fleet within the time period the speed of the outgoing vehicle belongs to, and then these outgoing vehicles belong to the corresponding fleets respectively;

[0198] According to the convoy to which the outgoing vehicle belongs, the control section r is driven out of the convoy in the traffic flow. If the outgoing vehicles are removed, the fleet is shown in Table 2. 7 vehicles should be eliminated, the fleet 3 vehicles should be eliminated;

[0199] S43: Calculate the variable characteristic parameters of the vehicle fleet when the vehicle flows out of the control section

[0200] Depending on whether the convoy has been removed, if the convoy has not been removed, the convoy does not need to be reconstructed, and the initial value of the convoy operation characteristics at the exit control section r is calculated. in, It represents the characteristic parameters of the fleet operation at the control section r;

[0201] According to whether the fleet has excluded vehicles, for the fleet with excluded vehicles, the characteristic parameters of the fleet are recalculated after reconstruction; according to the fleet 1 vehicle was removed Situation and fleet operation characteristic parameters at control section r Calculate the average traffic flow of the reconstructed fleet Average speed

[0202] When the convoy leaves the control section r with the help of the arriving traffic flow Distance from the (r-1)th control section Calculate the time when the arriving traffic flows exit the control section r

[0203] S5: Calculate the operational characteristic parameters of the vehicle fleet entering the control section;

[0204] S51: Count the speed of vehicles entering the control section and exiting the road as shown in Table 3. Number the vehicles in the 1(g)th time period where i(g) vehicles leave the road from small to large.

[0205]

[0206]

[0207] Table 3

[0208] S52: Reconstructing the traffic flow entering the control section through the convoy

[0209] Compare the vehicle speeds entering the control section g in the m(g)th period The initial speed range of the vehicles in the convoy Determine which initial speed intervals of each fleet within the time period the incoming vehicle's speed belongs to, and then these incoming vehicles belong to the corresponding fleets respectively;

[0210] S53: Calculate the variable characteristic parameters of the vehicle fleet when entering the control section

[0211] Based on whether the fleet has added vehicles, for the fleet that has not added vehicles, the fleet does not need to be reconstructed, and the initial value of the fleet operation characteristics at the entry control section g is calculated in, represents the operational characteristic parameters of the fleet at the control section g;

[0212] Based on whether the fleet has added vehicles, for the fleet with added vehicles, the characteristic parameters of the fleet are recalculated according to the reconstruction; the average traffic flow of the reconstructed fleet is calculated Average speed According to the arrival of traffic flow into the control section g when the convoy Distance from the (g-1)th control section Calculate the time when the arriving traffic flows exit the control section

[0213] S6: Predict the time-varying traffic flow of road sections;

[0214] S61: Calculate the initial value of the predicted time when the convoy passes through the road section

[0215] With the help of the fleet operation characteristic data set at the control section w The distance d(w) between the control section w and the prediction section is as follows: Figure 4 Fleet shown Driving process diagram, calculating the initial value of the time for each team to arrive at the predicted section

[0216] S62: Reconstructing road prediction sections through the convoy

[0217] With the prediction start and end time divided by S13 as the time range [9:20, 10:10] and the prediction time span Δt of 5 minutes, the prediction section traffic time-varying flow prediction period ([T s , T s +Δt), [T s +Δt,Ts +2Δt),…,[T e -Δt, T e ]);

[0218] Based on the specific time and order of arrival of each convoy at the predicted section, the convoys are renumbered according to the average speed from small to large during the analysis period of the predicted section.

[0219] S63: Predicting time-varying traffic flow on road sections

[0220] Since the prediction section does not involve reconstruction of the fleet, the fleet traffic volume and average speed of the prediction section are consistent with those of the w-th control section, and the fleet operation characteristic data set of the m(p)th prediction period at the prediction section is determined.

[0221]

[0222] With the help of the fleet operation characteristic data set of the first forecast period at the forecast section Calculate the traffic flow q of the first forecast period of the forecast section 1(p) =79.

Claims

1. A method for predicting time-varying traffic flow on a road section for vehicle-road collaboration, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: 1) Construct an initial fleet of road sections based on the prediction time span; According to the collected vehicle and road-related data, the road control sections are divided, the road data collection backtracking period is determined, and the initial road section fleet is constructed; 2) Calculate the fleet operation characteristic parameters of the road data collection section; According to the fleet collection in the initial fleet data set, the number of vehicles passing through the data collection section of each fleet in each time period is calculated respectively; according to the instantaneous speed of the vehicles in the initial fleet data set, the average speed of each fleet in each time period is calculated respectively; according to the spatial position of each fleet vehicle in the data collection section, the horizontal distance from the spatial position point of each fleet in each time period to the data collection section is calculated respectively, so as to calculate the time when the spatial position point of each fleet passes through the data collection section; 3) Calculate the initial values ​​of the operation characteristics of the reordering fleet of the road control section; According to the fleet operation characteristic data set of each fleet at the previous control section, the initial value of the time when each fleet arrives at the current control section is calculated respectively; according to the time when each fleet arrives at the current control section, the fleet number is re-sorted; according to the fleet operation characteristic data set, the initial value of the time corresponding to each fleet is calculated respectively; according to the fleet number re-sorted at the current control section, the initial speed interval range of the fleet in each time period is divided; 4) Calculate the operational characteristic parameters of the vehicle fleet exiting and entering the control section; According to the speed of each vehicle leaving the road, the exit speed of each vehicle in each time period is ranked; by comparing the exit speed of each vehicle in each time period with the initial speed interval of the fleet, the fleet number of the traffic flow leaving the control section is reconstructed; according to the reconstructed fleet situation, the running variable characteristic parameters of the fleet leaving the control section are recalculated; According to the vehicle speed of each vehicle entering the road, the speed ranking of each vehicle in each time period is divided; by comparing the vehicle speed of each time period with the initial speed interval of the fleet, the fleet number of the traffic flow entering the control section is reconstructed; according to the reconstructed fleet situation, the running variable characteristic parameters of the fleet entering the control section are recalculated; 5) Predict the time-varying traffic flow of road sections; According to the fleet operation characteristic data set of each fleet at the previous control section, the initial value of the time when each fleet arrives at the predicted section is calculated respectively; according to the specific time and sequence of each fleet arriving at the predicted section, the fleet number of the vehicle flow leaving the predicted section is reconstructed; through the operation characteristic data set of each fleet, the vehicle flow during the predicted period is calculated; The step 1) constructs an initial fleet of road sections based on the predicted time span, and the specific steps are: 1-1) Divide the road control section The road between the data collection section and the prediction section is divided into w sections with the control section as the interval and numbered in sequence; 1-2) Determine the road data collection backtracking period According to the prediction period [T s ,T e ], the instantaneous speed of each vehicle passing through the data collection section on the lth day and the jth vehicle passing through the data collection section Arrange from small to large to get the speed v corresponding to the 85% and 15% vehicles 85％ 、v 15％ ; and according to the distance d between the prediction section and the data collection section p , calculate the start and end point backtracking time of the road data collection section According to the start and end point tracing time, calculate the start and end point time T of the data collection section. s(b) =T s -t s(b) , T e(b) =T e -t e(b) ; 1-3) Constructing the initial fleet of road sections According to the calculated data collection section, trace back the start and end time periods [T s(b) ,T e(b) ], the time span Δt of the cross-section traffic time-varying flow prediction is divided into M(b) time spans; according to the instantaneous speed of the n(b)th vehicle passing through the data collection section in the m(b)th time period, Number the vehicles from small to large according to their speed According to the numbered vehicles, The vehicles are divided into one gear, forming k(b) fleets with speed differences. The set of k(b) fleets in the data collection section of the m(b)th period is The lower right subscript m(b) of the element A in each set indicates the time period, and the upper right subscript value indicates the number of vehicles in the fleet k(b); The step 2) calculates the fleet operation characteristic parameters of the road data collection section, and the specific steps are: 2-1) Calculate the fleet operation characteristic parameters of the road data collection section According to the vehicle collection of the fleet, calculate the initial fleet in the m(b)th period The number of vehicles passing through the data collection section 2-2) Calculate the average speed of the fleet in the road data collection section According to the instantaneous speed of the n(b)th vehicle passing through the data collection section in the m(b)th time period of each fleet Calculate the average speed of the k(b)th convoy in the m(b)th time period respectively In the formula, the lower right subscript m(b) of the vehicle speed v represents the time period, and the upper right subscript value represents the number of vehicles in the fleet k(b); 2-3) Calculate the arrival time of the convoy at the road data collection section According to the spatial position of each fleet vehicle in the data collection section, the horizontal distance between the spatial position of each vehicle and the data collection section at the end of the collection period According to the number of vehicles of each fleet passing through the data collection section in each time period Calculate the horizontal distance between the spatial position point of the k(b)th convoy in the m(b)th time period and the data collection section at the end of the collection period: In the formula, the lower right subscript m(b) of the horizontal distance d represents the time period, and the upper right subscript value represents the number of vehicles in the fleet k(b); According to the data collection section, trace back to the starting time T s(b) , the time span Δt of the time-varying traffic flow prediction of the time period m(b) and the horizontal distance between the spatial position point of the fleet at the end of the collection period and the data collection section The average speed of the fleet Calculate the time when the k(b)th convoy spatial position point passes through the data collection section in the m(b)th time period The step 3) calculates the initial value of the operation characteristic of the reordering fleet of the road control section, and the specific steps are: 3-1) Calculate the initial value of the convoy arrival time at the road control section Based on the fleet operation characteristic dataset at the h-1th control section According to the horizontal distance d between the spatial position point of the collected control section h-1 and the control section h (h-1) , the fleet The time when passing through the h-1th control section and average speed Calculate the initial value of the time when each team arrives at the hth control section 3-2) Rearrange the road control section to pass the convoy According to the specific time sequence of each convoy arriving at the hth control section, calculate the earliest starting time of all convoys arriving at the exit ramp section According to the time span Δt of the cross-section traffic time-varying flow prediction, the characteristic analysis periods ([T h ,T h +Δt),[T h +Δt,T h +2Δt),…,[T h +(m(h)-1)Δt,T h +m(h)Δt)); Analyze the average speed of each fleet and time period according to the divided characteristics Number the fleet from small to large according to the average speed 3-3) Calculate the initial value of the fleet operation characteristics of the road control section The vehicle flow rate based on the initial value of the operating characteristic data of each fleet Initial value of average vehicle speed after rearrangement The initial value of the moment when the convoy reaches the h-1th control section is calculated, which is consistent with the value of the convoy at the h-1th control section. 3-4) Calculate the initial speed range of the fleet in the road control section Renumbering of fleets according to control sections Divide the convoy passing through the h-th control section in the m(h)th time period The corresponding initial speed range is The step 4) calculates the operational characteristic parameters of the vehicle fleet when the vehicle flows out of the control section, and the specific steps are: 4-1) Count the speed of vehicles leaving the control section According to the rth control section, the vehicle exits the control section and the vehicle speed exiting the road Number the o(r) vehicles that leave the road in the m(r)th time period from small to large 4-2) Reconstruct the traffic flow out of the control section and through the convoy According to the comparison of the vehicle exit speed in the m(r)th period of the traffic flow exiting the control section r The initial speed range of the vehicles in the convoy Determine which initial speed intervals of each fleet within the time period the speed of the outgoing vehicle belongs to, and then these outgoing vehicles belong to the corresponding fleets respectively; According to the fleet to which the outgoing vehicle belongs, the fleet in the outgoing traffic flow of control section r is removed from the outgoing vehicles. Eliminate outgoing vehicles; 4-3) Calculate the variable characteristic parameters of the fleet when the vehicle flow leaves the control section Depending on whether the convoy has been removed, if the convoy has not been removed, the convoy does not need to be reconstructed, and the initial value of the convoy operation characteristics at the exit control section r is calculated. in, It represents the characteristic parameters of the fleet operation at the control section r; According to whether the fleet has excluded vehicles, for the fleet with excluded vehicles, the characteristic parameters of the fleet are recalculated after reconstruction; according to the fleet 1 vehicle was removed Situation and fleet operation characteristic parameters at control section r Calculate the average traffic flow of the reconstructed fleet Average speed In the formula, is the initial value of the average vehicle speed after the control section r is rearranged according to step 3); according to the convoy when the arriving traffic leaves the control section r Distance from the r-1th control section Calculate the time when the arriving traffic flows exit the control section Where, d (r-1) is the horizontal distance between the spatial position point of control section r-1 and control section r; The step 4) calculates the operational characteristic parameters of the vehicle fleet entering the control section, and the specific steps are: 5-1) Statistics on the speed of vehicles entering and exiting the control section According to the g-th control section, the vehicle flow enters the control section and the speed of the vehicle entering the road Number the vehicles with i(g) vehicles driving off the road in the m(g)th time period from small to large 5-2) Reconstruct the traffic flow entering the control section and passing the convoy According to the comparison of the vehicle speed entering the control section g in the m(g)th period The initial speed range of the vehicles in the convoy Determine which initial speed intervals of each fleet within the time period the incoming vehicle's speed belongs to, and then these incoming vehicles belong to the corresponding fleets respectively; According to the fleet to which the incoming vehicle belongs, a control section g is added to the incoming vehicle to control the fleet in the incoming traffic flow. Driving opposite; 5-3) Calculate the variable characteristic parameters of the fleet when the vehicle flow enters the control section Depending on whether the fleet has added vehicles, if there are no additional vehicles in the fleet, the fleet does not need to be reconstructed, and the initial value of the fleet operation characteristics at the entry control section g is calculated. in, represents the operational characteristic parameters of the fleet at the control section g; According to whether the fleet has added vehicles, for the fleet with added vehicles, the characteristic parameters of the fleet are recalculated according to the reconstruction; according to the fleet 1 vehicle was removed The situation and the fleet operation characteristic parameters at the control section g Calculate the average traffic flow of the reconstructed fleet Average speed In the formula, is the initial value of the average vehicle speed after the control section g is rearranged, is the vehicle flow of the initial value of the operating characteristic data of the control section g; according to the arrival of the vehicle flow entering the control section g, the fleet Distance from the g-1th control section Calculate the time when the arriving traffic enters the control section Where, d (g-1) is the horizontal distance between the spatial position point of control section g-1 and control section g; The step 5) predicts the time-varying traffic flow of the road section, and the specific steps are: 6-1) Calculate the initial value of the time when the team passes the predicted section of the road According to the fleet operation characteristic data set at the control section w The distance d between the control section w and the prediction section (w) , calculate the initial value of the time for each team to arrive at the predicted section in, is the average traffic flow of each k(w) fleet corresponding to the control section w, is the average speed of each k(w) fleet corresponding to the control section w, is the passing time of each k(w) convoy corresponding to the control section w; 6-2) Reconstructing the predicted road section through the convoy According to the time range of the predicted start and end time [T s ,T e ] and the prediction time span Δt, and re-divide the prediction section time-varying traffic flow prediction period [T s ,T s +Δt),[T s +Δt,T s +2Δt),…,[T e -Δt,T e ]; According to the specific time and order of arrival of each convoy at the predicted section, the convoys are renumbered according to the average speed from small to large during the analysis period of the predicted section. 6-3) Predicting time-varying traffic flow on road sections Since the prediction section does not involve reconstruction of the fleet, the fleet traffic volume and average speed of the prediction section are consistent with those of the w-th control section, and the fleet operation characteristic data set of the m(p)th prediction period at the prediction section is determined. in, is the average traffic flow of each k(p) fleet corresponding to the m(p)th prediction period of the prediction section, is the average speed of each k(p) convoy corresponding to the m(p)th prediction period of the prediction section, is the passing time of each k(p) convoy corresponding to the m(p)th prediction period of the prediction section; The fleet operation characteristic data set of the m(p)th prediction period at the prediction section Calculate the traffic flow of the m(p)th prediction period in the prediction section

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