A method for predicting water and mud inrush in tunnels

Abstract

The present invention provides a method for predicting water and mud inrush in tunnels. The method comprises: obtaining geological data at a predetermined tunnel location; calculating energy loss during seepage based on the obtained geological data; and predicting the velocity of water inrush in the tunnel based on the obtained geological data and the energy loss during seepage. Application of the present invention can rapidly predict the velocity of water inrush in tunnels, preventing casualties caused by water inrush. It can also provide a water inrush risk assessment method for tunnel construction units, enabling technical personnel to formulate water inrush predictions based on the water inrush risk assessment.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present application relates to the technical field of tunnels and underground engineering, and in particular to a method for predicting water and mud inrush in tunnels. Background Art

[0002] In recent decades, my country's economy has flourished. Infrastructure, particularly transportation infrastructure, has played a significant role in driving sustainable economic and social development. The nation's medium- and long-term development plans prioritize the construction of major infrastructure projects, including transportation. A large number of major infrastructure projects, including highway and railway projects, water conservancy and hydropower projects, and mining projects, are on the construction schedule. This has also significantly boosted tunnel construction.

[0003] However, in existing technologies, according to statistics, in the construction of underground projects such as tunnels, nearly 80% of major safety accidents are caused by geological disasters such as water gushing and mud bursting and improper handling, and the lessons are extremely profound.

[0004] In summary, given the hazards of water and mud inrush in existing technologies, a better method for predicting tunnel water and mud inrush, which can quickly predict the speed of water inrush in tunnels and provide tunnel construction units with a water inrush risk assessment method, is an urgent problem to be solved in this field. Summary of the Invention

[0005] In view of this, the present invention provides a method for predicting water and mud inrush in tunnels, thereby being able to quickly predict the water inrush speed in tunnels; and also providing a water inrush risk assessment method for tunnel construction units.

[0006] The technical solution of the present invention is specifically achieved as follows:

[0007] A method for predicting water inrush and mud burst in a tunnel, the method comprising:

[0008] Step A, obtaining geological data at a preset tunnel location;

[0009] Step B, calculating the energy loss during the seepage process based on the obtained geological data;

[0010] Step C: predict the speed of water inrush in the tunnel based on the obtained geological data and the energy loss during the seepage process.

[0011] Preferably, the energy loss is calculated according to the following formula:

[0012]

[0013] Where Δh is the energy loss during the entire seepage process; μ is the fluid viscosity coefficient; v is the water flow velocity; D P is the equivalent diameter of the porous medium; l is the length of the seepage path.

[0014] Preferably, the method further comprises:

[0015] Step D, determining the groundwater pressure level value based on the obtained geological data and the preset groundwater pressure level standard;

[0016] Step E: determining the groundwater level based on the obtained geological data and a preset groundwater level standard;

[0017] Step F, determining the fault zone scale value based on the obtained geological data and a preset fault zone scale scale standard;

[0018] Step G, determining the quality grade of the rock and soil mass in the fault zone based on the obtained geological data and the preset quality grade standard of the rock and soil mass in the fault zone;

[0019] Step H, determining a level value for the probability of water inrush and mud burst based on the level value of groundwater pressure, the level value of groundwater volume, the level value of the fault zone scale, and the level value of the quality of the rock and soil within the fault zone;

[0020] Step I: Determine the probability level of water gushing and mud bursting according to the level value of the probability of water gushing and mud bursting.

[0021] Preferably, the grade value of the probability of water inrush and mud burst is calculated according to the following formula:

[0022] Q t =Q p +Q q +Q s +Q m ;

[0023] Among them, Q t The probability of water inrush and mud burst is expressed as the grade value, Q p Indicates the level value of groundwater pressure, Q q Indicates the grade value of groundwater, Q s Indicates the grade value of the fault zone scale, Q m A grade value indicating the quality of rock and soil within the fault zone.

[0024] Preferably, the method further comprises:

[0025] Step J, determining the losses after the water and mud burst occurs;

[0026] Step K: determining the consequence level of the water gushing and mud bursting according to the loss situation after the water gushing and mud bursting and the preset consequence level standard.

[0027] Preferably, the loss includes one or more of economic loss, casualties, construction delay or environmental impact.

[0028] Preferably, the method further comprises:

[0029] Step L, determining the risk level of water gushing and mud bursting according to the probability level and consequence level of water gushing and mud bursting and the preset water gushing and mud bursting risk level standard.

[0030] Preferably, the step L comprises:

[0031] Step L1, obtaining a risk value of water gushing and mud bursting according to the probability level and consequence level of water gushing and mud bursting;

[0032] Step L2, determining the risk level of water gushing and mud bursting according to the risk value of water gushing and mud bursting.

[0033] Preferably, the step L1 includes:

[0034] Step L11, taking the probability level of water gushing and mud bursting as the corresponding probability prediction value;

[0035] Step L12, taking the consequence level of water gushing and mud bursting as the corresponding consequence prediction value;

[0036] In step L13, the sum of the probability prediction value and the consequence prediction value is used as the risk value of water and mud burst.

[0037] Preferably, the step L2 includes:

[0038] The risk value of water gushing and mud bursting is less than or equal to the first risk threshold, and the risk level of water gushing and mud bursting is low;

[0039] The risk value of water gushing and mud bursting is less than or equal to the second risk threshold and greater than the first risk threshold, and the risk level of water gushing and mud bursting is medium;

[0040] The risk value of water gushing and mud bursting is less than or equal to the third risk threshold and greater than the second risk threshold, and the risk level of water gushing and mud bursting is high;

[0041] The risk value of water gushing and mud bursting is greater than the third risk threshold, and the risk level of water gushing and mud bursting is extremely high.

[0042] As can be seen above, in the present invention, by proposing a method for predicting water and mud bursts in tunnels, the water burst speed in the tunnel can be quickly predicted to avoid casualties caused by water bursts; it can also provide tunnel construction units with a water burst risk assessment method and enable technical personnel to formulate water burst predictions based on the water burst risk assessment. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0043] Figure 1 Flowchart of a method for predicting water inflow velocity in an embodiment of the present invention.

[0044] Figure 2 Schematic diagram of the mechanical model of tunnel water and mud inrush in an embodiment of the present invention.

[0045] Figure 3 This is a flow chart for predicting the probability level of water gushing and mud bursting in an embodiment of the present invention.

[0046] Figure 4 This is a flow chart for predicting the consequence level of water gushing and mud bursting in an embodiment of the present invention.

[0047] Figure 5 This is a flow chart for predicting the risk level of water and mud bursts in an embodiment of the present invention.

[0048] Figure 6 This is a flow chart for predicting the risk level of water gushing and mud bursting according to the risk value of water gushing and mud bursting in an embodiment of the present invention.

[0049] Figure 7 This is a flow chart for obtaining the risk value of water gushing and mud bursting in an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0050] In order to make the technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more clearly understood, the present invention is further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.

[0051] like Figure 1 As shown, the present invention provides a method for predicting water and mud inrush in a tunnel, which may include:

[0052] Step 101, obtaining geological data at a preset tunnel location;

[0053] In the technical solution of the present invention, geological data at a preset tunnel location can be obtained through a variety of specific implementation methods.

[0054] For example, in a specific embodiment of the present invention, geological surveys may be conducted at a preset tunnel location, and then corresponding geological data may be acquired based on the results of the geological surveys.

[0055] In addition, in the technical solution of the present invention, various required geological data can be obtained according to the needs of actual application scenarios.

[0056] For example, in a specific embodiment of the present invention, the geological data may include: water head height Z (unit: m); groundwater pressure u (unit: pa); water density γ w (Unit is kN / m 3); water flow velocity v (unit: m / s); seepage path length l.

[0057] Among them, according to the groundwater pressure u and water density γ w , we can get the pressure head at that location (unit: m);

[0058] Step 102, calculating the energy loss during the seepage process based on the obtained geological data;

[0059] like Figure 2 As shown in Figure 1, water flows through three stages from an aquifer or unfavorable geological body to the tunnel excavation face: a low-speed laminar flow stage, a transition stage, and a rapid seepage stage. Each stage of the seepage process involves a certain amount of energy loss. When the seepage velocity is low, viscous resistance is the primary seepage resistance, while inertial resistance is relatively small and can be ignored. As the seepage velocity increases, the inertial resistance gradually increases to a non-negligible level, and the seepage resistance includes both viscous and inertial resistance. When the seepage velocity is very high, inertial resistance becomes dominant, and viscous resistance can be ignored.

[0060] Therefore, in the technical solution of the present invention, there can be multiple specific implementations to calculate the energy loss during the seepage process.

[0061] For example, in a specific embodiment of the present invention, the energy loss during the seepage process can be calculated using the following formula:

[0062]

[0063] Where Δh is the energy loss during the entire seepage process; μ is the fluid viscosity coefficient; v is the water flow velocity; D P is the equivalent diameter of the porous medium; l is the length of the seepage path.

[0064] Of course, in the technical solution of the present invention, the energy loss in the seepage process can also be obtained by other methods such as estimation, which will not be described in detail here.

[0065] Step 103: predict the speed of water inrush in the tunnel based on the obtained geological data and the energy loss during the seepage process.

[0066] In the technical solution of the present invention, the speed of water inrush in a tunnel can be predicted through a variety of specific implementation methods. The technical solution of the present invention will be described in detail below using one of the implementation methods as an example.

[0067] For example, in a specific embodiment of the present invention, based on the above geological parameters, the energy per unit weight of water can be calculated as:

[0068] If the water head height before the water inrush accident in a tunnel in a karst area is Z1, the groundwater pressure is u1, and the water flow velocity is v1, then the energy per unit weight of the water before the water inrush accident is However, the water flow before the flooding accident was in a laminar state with a very low velocity. can be ignored, so the energy per unit weight of water can be recorded as

[0069] When a water inrush accident occurs, water gushes out through the tunnel excavation surface. At this time, the water head height is Z2, the groundwater pressure is u2, and the water flow velocity is v2 (i.e., the water inrush velocity). From the above content, we can know that the energy per unit weight of water in the event of a water inrush accident is At this time, the water gushing out at a high speed cannot be ignored; however, since the water has already gushed out, the water pressure at this time is the standard atmospheric pressure, that is, Therefore, the energy of unit weight of water after a water inrush accident can be recorded as

[0070] Therefore, according to the law of conservation of energy before and after water inflow, the equation can be obtained: The height difference between Z1 and Z2 is H = Z1 - Z2, so we can further get:

[0071] Therefore, in a specific embodiment of the present invention, the speed of water inrush in a tunnel can be predicted by the following formula:

[0072]

[0073] Where v2 is the speed of water inrush in the tunnel; H is the water level difference (i.e., the difference between the water head height before the water inrush accident and the water head height when the water inrush accident occurs); u1 is the groundwater pressure before the water inrush accident occurs, γ w is the specific gravity of water, is the initial pressure head; Δh is the energy loss during the seepage process; g is the acceleration of gravity.

[0074] Therefore, it can be seen that through the above steps 101 to 103, the tunnel water inrush and mud inrush can be predicted, and the tunnel water inrush speed can be predicted.

[0075] Furthermore, in the technical solution of the present invention, in addition to predicting the speed of water inrush in the tunnel, other situations or states of water inrush and mud inrush in the tunnel can also be further predicted.

[0076] For example, preferably, in a specific embodiment of the present invention, Figure 3 As shown, the tunnel water and mud inrush prediction method may further include:

[0077] Step 104: determining the groundwater pressure level based on the obtained geological data and a preset groundwater pressure level standard;

[0078] As mentioned above, in the technical solution of the present invention, the groundwater pressure can be obtained based on the geological data at the preset tunnel location.

[0079] In addition, in the technical solution of the present invention, the grade standard of groundwater pressure can be set in advance.

[0080] For example, preferably, in a specific embodiment of the present invention, the corresponding groundwater pressure level can be set according to the size of the water head height before the water gushing occurs.

[0081] Because groundwater pressure is related to water head height, the greater the water head height, the greater the groundwater pressure. Furthermore, the greater the groundwater pressure, the greater the likelihood of water and mud bursts, and the faster the water and mud bursts. Therefore, the corresponding groundwater pressure level can be set based on the water head height before water bursts occur.

[0082] For example, preferably, in a specific embodiment of the present invention, the grade standard of the groundwater pressure can be:

[0083] When the water head height is less than 10m, the groundwater pressure is extremely low (water pressure is less than 0.1Mpa), which is not likely to cause water gushing. Therefore, the groundwater pressure level at this time can be level I.

[0084] When the water head height is greater than or equal to 10m and less than 40m, the groundwater pressure is low (water pressure is 0.1-0.4Mpa), which may cause water gushing. Therefore, the groundwater pressure level at this time can be level II.

[0085] When the water head height is greater than or equal to 40m and less than 60m, the groundwater pressure is medium (water pressure is 0.4-0.6Mpa), which is more likely to cause water gushing. Therefore, the groundwater pressure level at this time can be level III;

[0086] When the water head height is greater than or equal to 60m and less than 100m, the groundwater pressure is high (water pressure is 0.6-1.0Mpa), which is likely to cause water gushing. Therefore, the groundwater pressure level at this time can be level IV;

[0087] When the water head height is greater than or equal to 100m, the groundwater pressure is extremely high (water pressure > 1.0Mpa), which is very likely to cause water gushing. Therefore, the level of groundwater pressure at this time can be level V.

[0088] After the groundwater pressure is obtained and the grade standard of the groundwater pressure is preset, the grade value of the groundwater pressure can be determined according to the groundwater pressure and the preset grade standard of the groundwater pressure.

[0089] For example, preferably, in a specific embodiment of the present invention, when the groundwater pressure level standard is the above-mentioned level I to level V, the corresponding level values can be 1 to 5, as shown in the following table:

[0090] level state Classification standard (MPa) Grading Description Level value Ⅰ Extremely low water pressure ＜0.1 The water head height is less than 10m, which is not likely to cause water gushing. 1 Ⅱ Low water pressure 0.1～0.4 If the water head height is greater than or equal to 10m and less than 40m, it may cause water inrush. 2 Ⅲ Medium water pressure 0.4～0.6 If the water head height is greater than or equal to 40m and less than 60m, it is more likely to cause water inrush. 3 Ⅳ High water pressure 0.6～1.0 If the water head height is greater than or equal to 60m and less than 100m, it is likely to cause water inrush. 4 Ⅴ Extremely high water pressure ＞1.0 The water head height is greater than or equal to 100m, which is very likely to cause water inrush 5

[0091] Therefore, after obtaining the groundwater pressure, the level value of the groundwater pressure can be determined according to the groundwater pressure.

[0092] Step 105, determining the groundwater level value based on the obtained geological data and the preset groundwater level standard;

[0093] As mentioned above, in the technical solution of the present invention, geological data at a preset tunnel location can be obtained through a variety of specific implementation methods, wherein the obtained geological data can further include: the amount of groundwater.

[0094] In addition, in the technical solution of the present invention, the grade standard of groundwater volume can be set in advance.

[0095] For example, preferably, in a specific embodiment of the present invention, the corresponding groundwater water level can be set according to the form of groundwater discharge.

[0096] Since the water outflow pattern can reflect the amount of groundwater, and the greater the amount of groundwater, the greater the possibility of water inrush and mud burst. Therefore, the corresponding groundwater level can be set according to the groundwater outflow pattern.

[0097] For example, preferably, in a specific embodiment of the present invention, the grade standard of the groundwater volume can be:

[0098] When the water outflow is in the form of seepage and dripping, the amount of groundwater is very small (water volume <25L / min·10m), which is unlikely to cause water gushing. Therefore, the level of groundwater at this time can be Class I.

[0099] When the water outflow is in the form of linear dripping, the groundwater volume is small (the water volume is 25-125L / min·10m), which may cause water gushing. Therefore, the groundwater volume level at this time can be Class II.

[0100] When the water is discharged in small streams, the groundwater volume is medium (125-500 L / min·10 m), which is more likely to cause water gushing. Therefore, the groundwater volume level at this time can be Class III.

[0101] When the water flows out in large streams, the groundwater volume is large (500-1000 L / min·10 m), which is likely to cause water inrush. Therefore, the groundwater volume level at this time can be Class IV.

[0102] When the water is discharged in the form of large streams at multiple locations, the groundwater volume is extremely large (the water volume is >1000L / min·10m), which is very likely to cause water gushing. Therefore, the groundwater volume level at this time can be level V.

[0103] After the amount of groundwater is obtained and the grade standard of the groundwater amount is preset, the grade value of the groundwater amount can be determined according to the amount of groundwater and the preset grade standard of the groundwater amount.

[0104] For example, preferably, in a specific embodiment of the present invention, when the groundwater level standard is the above-mentioned level I to level V, the corresponding level values can be 1 to 5, as shown in the following table:

[0105] level state Classification standard〔L / min·10m〕 Grading Description Level value Ⅰ Small amount of water <25 Water seepage and dripping 1 Ⅱ Small water volume 25～125 Linear dripping 2 Ⅲ Medium water volume 125～500 Small stream of water 3 Ⅳ Large amount of water 500～1000 Large streams of water 4 Ⅴ Extremely large amount of water ＞1000 Large streams of water are coming out from multiple locations 5

[0106] Therefore, after obtaining the amount of groundwater, the grade value of the groundwater amount can be determined according to the amount of groundwater.

[0107] Step 106, determining the fault zone scale value based on the obtained geological data and a preset fault zone scale scale standard;

[0108] As mentioned above, in the technical solution of the present invention, geological data at a preset tunnel location can be obtained through a variety of specific implementation methods, wherein the obtained geological data can further include: the scale of the fault zone.

[0109] In addition, in the technical solution of the present invention, the grade standard of the fault zone scale can be set in advance.

[0110] For example, preferably, in a specific embodiment of the present invention, the corresponding fault zone scale level can be set according to the width and extension length of the fault fracture zone before the water gushing occurs.

[0111] The scale of a fault zone can be measured by its width and length. The larger the fault zone, the greater the amount of water it stores, the more mud it contains, and the greater the likelihood of water and mud inrush. Therefore, the corresponding fault zone scale can be set based on the width and length of the fault zone before water inrush occurs.

[0112] For example, preferably, in a specific embodiment of the present invention, the grade standard of the fault zone scale can be:

[0113] When the width of the fault zone is less than 1m and the extension length is less than 100m, it is a small fault state and is not likely to cause water inrush. Therefore, the scale of the fault zone at this time can be classified as Level I.

[0114] When the width of the fault zone is 1 to 5 meters and the extension length is 100 to 500 meters, it is a small fault state and may cause water inrush. Therefore, the scale of the fault zone at this time can be classified as Grade II.

[0115] When the width of the fault zone is 5 to 10 meters and the extension length is 500 to 1000 meters, it is a medium fault state and is more likely to cause water inrush. Therefore, the scale of the fault zone at this time can be classified as Grade III.

[0116] When the width of the fault zone is 10 to 100 meters and the extension length is 1,000 to 10,000 meters, it is a large fault state and is likely to cause water inrush. Therefore, the scale of the fault zone at this time can be classified as Grade IV.

[0117] When the width of the fault zone is greater than 100m and the extension length is greater than 10,000m, it is a large fault state and is very likely to cause water gushing. Therefore, the scale of the fault zone at this time can be level V.

[0118] After the scale of the fault zone is obtained and the grade standard of the fault zone scale is preset, the grade value of the fault zone scale can be determined according to the scale of the fault zone and the preset grade standard of the fault zone scale.

[0119] For example, preferably, in a specific embodiment of the present invention, when the grade standard of the fault zone scale is the above-mentioned grade I to grade V, the corresponding grade values can be 1 to 5, as shown in the following table:

[0120] level state Fault zone width (m) Extension length (m) Level value Ⅰ Small fault <1 <100 1 Ⅱ Smaller faults 1～5 100～500 2 Ⅲ Medium fault 5～10 500～1000 3 Ⅳ Large fault 10～100 1000～10000 4 Ⅴ Large fault ＞100 ＞10000 5

[0121] Therefore, after obtaining the fault zone scale, the grade value of the fault zone scale can be determined according to the fault zone scale.

[0122] Step 107, determining the quality grade of the rock and soil mass in the fault zone based on the obtained geological data and the preset quality grade standard of the rock and soil mass in the fault zone;

[0123] As mentioned above, in the technical solution of the present invention, geological data at a preset tunnel location can be obtained through a variety of specific implementation methods, wherein the obtained geological data can further include: the quality of the rock and soil in the fault zone.

[0124] In addition, in the technical solution of the present invention, the grade standard of the quality of the rock and soil in the fault zone can be set in advance.

[0125] For example, preferably, in a specific embodiment of the present invention, the quality grade of the rock and soil mass in the corresponding fault zone can be set according to the material composition in the fault zone obtained through geological survey.

[0126] Because the composition and physical and mechanical state of the rock and soil within the fault zone also contribute to water and mud inrush, the worse the material within the fault zone, the greater the likelihood of water and mud inrush. Therefore, the quality grade of the rock and soil within the fault zone can be set based on the material composition.

[0127] For example, preferably, in a specific embodiment of the present invention, the quality grade standard of the rock and soil mass in the fault zone may be:

[0128] When the material composition in the fault zone is blocky and the rock particle size is greater than 500mm, it is not easy to cause water gushing. Therefore, the quality grade of the rock and soil in the fault zone can be Grade I.

[0129] When the material composition in the fault zone is a fragmented structure with a rock particle size greater than 200mm and less than 500mm, it may cause water gushing. Therefore, the quality level of the rock and soil in the fault zone at this time can be grade II.

[0130] When the material composition in the fault zone is gravel soil structure, and the content of particles with a diameter greater than 2mm exceeds 50% of the total weight, it is more likely to cause water gushing. Therefore, the quality grade of the rock and soil in the fault zone at this time can be Grade III.

[0131] When the material composition in the fault zone is sandy soil, the content of particles larger than 2 mm does not exceed 50% of the total weight, and the content of particles larger than 0.075 mm exceeds 50% of the total weight, it is very likely to cause water inrush. Therefore, the quality grade of the rock and soil in the fault zone at this time can be Grade IV.

[0132] When the material composition in the fault zone is muddy or fluidized structure, and the content of particles with a particle size greater than 0.075 mm does not exceed 50% of the total weight, it is very likely to cause water gushing. Therefore, the quality grade of the rock and soil in the fault zone at this time can be Grade V.

[0133] After obtaining the quality of the rock and soil mass in the fault zone and presetting the grade standard for the quality of the rock and soil mass in the fault zone, the grade value of the quality of the rock and soil mass in the fault zone can be determined based on the quality of the rock and soil mass in the fault zone and the preset grade standard for the quality of the rock and soil mass in the fault zone.

[0134] For example, preferably, in a specific embodiment of the present invention, when the quality grade standards of the rock and soil mass in the fault zone are the above-mentioned Grade I to Grade V, the corresponding grade values can be 1 to 5, as shown in the following table:

[0135]

[0136] Therefore, after obtaining the quality of the rock and soil mass in the fault zone, the grade value of the quality of the rock and soil mass in the fault zone can be determined according to the quality of the rock and soil mass in the fault zone.

[0137] Step 108, determining a level value for the probability of water inrush and mud burst based on the level values of groundwater pressure, groundwater volume, fault zone size, and rock and soil quality within the fault zone;

[0138] The probability of water and mud inrush is related to groundwater pressure, groundwater volume, fault zone size, and the quality of the rock and soil within the fault zone. The higher the groundwater pressure, groundwater volume, fault zone size, and rock and soil quality values, and the higher the sum of these four factors, the higher the probability of water and mud inrush. Therefore, the probability of water and mud inrush can be calculated by adding the groundwater pressure, groundwater volume, fault zone size, and rock and soil quality values.

[0139] For example, preferably, in a specific embodiment of the present invention, the level value of the probability of water gushing and mud bursting can be calculated by the following formula:

[0140] Q t =Q p +Q q +Q s +Q m (3)

[0141] Among them, Q t The probability of water inrush and mud burst is expressed as the grade value, Q p Indicates the level value of groundwater pressure, Q q Indicates the grade value of groundwater, Q s Indicates the grade value of the fault zone scale, Q m A grade value indicating the quality of rock and soil within the fault zone.

[0142] Step 109: Determine the probability level of water gushing and mud bursting according to the level value of the probability of water gushing and mud bursting.

[0143] After obtaining the grade value of the probability of water gushing and mud bursting, the corresponding probability grade of water gushing and mud bursting can be determined according to the grade value of the probability of water gushing and mud bursting.

[0144] In the technical solution of the present invention, the probability level of the corresponding water gushing and mud bursting can be determined by a variety of specific implementation methods. The following will take one of the specific implementation methods as an example to introduce the technical solution of the present invention in detail.

[0145] For example, preferably, in a specific embodiment of the present invention, determining the probability level of water gushing and mud bursting according to the level value of the probability of water gushing and mud bursting may include:

[0146] When the probability of water gushing and mud bursting is less than or equal to 4, it means that the probability of water gushing and mud bursting is very small, so the probability of water gushing and mud bursting can be determined to be level I.

[0147] When the probability level of water gushing and mud bursting is greater than 4 and less than or equal to 8, it means that the probability of water gushing and mud bursting is small, so the probability level of water gushing and mud bursting can be determined to be level II.

[0148] When the probability of water gushing and mud bursting is greater than 8 and less than or equal to 12, it means that the probability of water gushing and mud bursting is medium, so the probability of water gushing and mud bursting is determined to be level III.

[0149] When the probability level of water gushing and mud bursting is greater than 12 and less than or equal to 16, it means that the probability of water gushing and mud bursting is relatively high, so the probability level of water gushing and mud bursting is determined to be level IV.

[0150] When the probability level of water gushing and mud bursting is greater than 16 and less than or equal to 20, it means that the probability of water gushing and mud bursting is very high, so the probability level of water gushing and mud bursting can be determined to be level V;

[0151] As shown in the following table:

[0152] <![CDATA[Level value Q t > Probability level description Probability level <![CDATA[Q t ≤4]]> Very small Ⅰ <![CDATA[4<Q t ≤8]]> Smaller Ⅱ <![CDATA[8<Q t ≤12]]> medium Ⅲ <![CDATA[12<Q t ≤16]]> Larger Ⅳ <![CDATA[16<Q t ≤20]]> Very big Ⅴ

[0153] Therefore, through the above steps 101 to 109, the water gushing and mud bursting in the tunnel can be predicted, and the probability level of the water gushing and mud bursting can be predicted.

[0154] In addition, in the technical solution of the present invention, after the probability level of water gushing and mud bursting is predicted, other situations or states of water gushing and mud bursting in the tunnel can be further predicted.

[0155] For example, preferably, in a specific embodiment of the present invention, Figure 4 As shown, the tunnel water and mud inrush prediction method may further include:

[0156] Step 110, determining the loss after the water inrush and mud burst occurs;

[0157] After a water gushing and mud bursting occurs, there may be losses in personnel, property, environment, etc. Therefore, in this step, the losses after a water gushing and mud bursting occurs can be determined or predicted.

[0158] For example, preferably, in a specific embodiment of the present invention, the loss situation may include: one or more of economic loss, casualties, construction delay time or environmental impact.

[0159] Step 111 : determining the consequence level of the water gushing and mud bursting according to the loss situation after the water gushing and mud bursting and the preset consequence level standard.

[0160] After determining or predicting the losses after the occurrence of water gushing and mudslide, the consequence level of the water gushing and mudslide can be determined based on the losses and the preset consequence level standards.

[0161] In the technical solution of the present invention, corresponding consequence level standards can be pre-set according to the needs of actual application scenarios and different loss situations.

[0162] For example, preferably, in a specific embodiment of the present invention, when the loss includes economic loss, step 111 may include:

[0163] When the economic losses caused by water and mud bursts are greater than the first economic threshold, it means that huge economic losses have been caused. Therefore, the consequence level of water and mud bursts can be determined to be level 5 (or catastrophic).

[0164] When the economic losses caused by water gushing and mud bursting are less than or equal to the first economic threshold and greater than the second economic threshold, it means that the economic losses are very serious. Therefore, the consequence level of water gushing and mud bursting can be determined to be level 4 (or very serious).

[0165] When the economic losses caused by water gushing and mud bursting are less than or equal to the second economic threshold and greater than the third economic threshold, it means that the economic losses are relatively serious. Therefore, the consequence level of water gushing and mud bursting can be determined to be level 3 (or serious).

[0166] When the economic losses caused by water gushing and mud bursting are less than or equal to the third economic threshold and greater than the fourth economic threshold, it means that the economic losses are relatively large. Therefore, the consequence level of water gushing and mud bursting can be determined to be level 2 (or relatively large).

[0167] When the economic losses caused by water gushing and mud bursting are less than or equal to the fourth economic threshold, it means that the economic losses caused are relatively small. Therefore, it can be determined that the consequence level of water gushing and mud bursting is level 1 (or called mild).

[0168] In addition, in the technical solution of the present invention, the values of the first economic threshold, the second economic threshold, the third economic threshold and the fourth economic threshold can be preset according to the needs of the actual application scenario.

[0169] For example, preferably, in a specific embodiment of the present invention, the first economic threshold, the second economic threshold, the third economic threshold and the fourth economic threshold can be: 10 million yuan, 3 million yuan, 1 million yuan, 300,000 yuan respectively.

[0170] For another example, preferably, in a specific embodiment of the present invention, when the loss situation includes casualties, step 111 may include:

[0171] When the number of casualties (which may include deaths, serious injuries, or minor injuries) caused by a water and mud burst is within the first range, it indicates that a huge number of casualties has been caused. Therefore, the consequence level of the water and mud burst can be determined to be level 5 (or catastrophic).

[0172] When the number of casualties caused by water gushing and mud bursting falls within the second range, it indicates that serious casualties have been caused. Therefore, the consequence level of water gushing and mud bursting can be determined to be level 4 (or very serious).

[0173] When the number of casualties caused by water gushing and mud bursting falls within the third range, it indicates that relatively serious casualties have been caused. Therefore, the consequence level of water gushing and mud bursting can be determined to be level 3 (or severe).

[0174] When the number of casualties caused by water gushing and mud bursting falls within the fourth range, it indicates that significant casualties have been caused. Therefore, the consequence level of water gushing and mud bursting can be determined to be level 2 (or significant).

[0175] When the number of casualties caused by water gushing and mudslides is within the fifth range, it means that minor casualties have been caused. Therefore, it can be determined that the consequence level of the water gushing and mudslides is level 1 (or mild).

[0176] In addition, in the technical solution of the present invention, the values of the first number range, the second number range, the third number range, the fourth number range and the fifth number range can be preset according to the needs of the actual application scenario.

[0177] For example, preferably, in a specific embodiment of the present invention, the first number range, the second number range, the third number range, the fourth number range, and the fifth number range may be respectively: F > 9, 2 < F ≤ 9 or SI > 10, 1 ≤ F ≤ 2 or 1 < SI ≤ 10, F = 0, SI = 1 or 1 < MI ≤ 10, F = 0, SI = 0, MI = 1; where F represents the number of deaths, SI represents the number of seriously injured people, and MI represents the number of slightly injured people.

[0178] In addition, preferably, in a specific embodiment of the present invention, when the loss situation includes the construction period delay time, step 111 may include:

[0179] When the construction period delay time caused by water inrush and mud burst is greater than the first time threshold, it indicates that a huge construction period delay has occurred. Therefore, it can be determined that the consequence level of the water inrush and mud burst is level 5 (or called catastrophic);

[0180] When the construction period delay time caused by water inrush and mud burst is less than or equal to the first time threshold and greater than the second time threshold, it indicates that a very serious construction period delay has occurred. Therefore, it can be determined that the consequence level of the water inrush and mud burst is level 4 (or called very serious);

[0181] When the construction period delay time caused by water inrush and mud burst is less than or equal to the second time threshold and greater than the third time threshold, it indicates that a relatively serious construction period delay has occurred. Therefore, it can be determined that the consequence level of the water inrush and mud burst is level 3 (or called serious);

[0182] When the construction period delay time caused by water inrush and mud burst is less than or equal to the third time threshold and greater than the fourth time threshold, it indicates that a relatively large construction period delay has occurred. Therefore, it can be determined that the consequence level of the water inrush and mud burst is level 2 (or called relatively large);

[0183] When the construction period delay time caused by water inrush and mud burst is less than or equal to the fourth time threshold, it indicates that a relatively small construction period delay has occurred. Therefore, it can be determined that the consequence level of the water inrush and mud burst is level 1 (or called minor).

[0184] In addition, in the technical solution of the present invention, the values of the above-mentioned first time threshold, second time threshold, third time threshold, and fourth time threshold can be preset according to the needs of the actual application scenario.

[0185] For example, preferably, in a specific embodiment of the present invention, when the project is a controlled-duty project, the first time threshold, the second time threshold, the third time threshold, and the fourth time threshold may be: 10 months / single accident, 1 month / single accident, 0.1 month / single accident, and 0.01 month / single accident, respectively; when the project is an uncontrolled-duty project, the first time threshold, the second time threshold, the third time threshold, and the fourth time threshold may be: 24 months / single accident, 6 months / single accident, 2 months / single accident, and 0.5 month / single accident, respectively;

[0186] Furthermore, preferably, in a specific embodiment of the present invention, when the loss condition includes environmental impact, step 111 may include:

[0187] When the impact of water and mud inrush on the environment is permanent and severe, the consequence level of water and mud inrush can be determined to be Level 5 (or catastrophic);

[0188] When the impact on the environment caused by water and mud burst is permanent but minor, the consequence level of water and mud burst can be determined as Level 4 (or very serious);

[0189] When the impact of water and mud burst on the environment is long-term, the consequence level of water and mud burst can be determined to be level 3 (or severe);

[0190] When the impact on the environment caused by water gushing and mud bursting is temporary but serious, the consequence level of water gushing and mud bursting can be determined as Level 2 (or large);

[0191] When the impact on the environment caused by water and mud burst is temporary and minor, the consequence level of water and mud burst can be determined as Level 1 (or minor);

[0192] Therefore, when the loss includes one of economic loss, casualties, construction delay or environmental impact, the consequence level of the water and mud burst can be determined based on the loss after the water and mud burst occurs. As shown in the following table:

[0193]

[0194]

[0195] In addition, when the loss situation includes multiple items of economic loss, casualties, construction delay or environmental impact, the consequence level of water and mud burst can be determined according to the specific number of items that occur.

[0196] For example, preferably, in a specific embodiment of the present invention, when the losses are two of the following: economic losses, casualties, construction delays, or environmental impacts, the following situations may occur:

[0197] If the consequence levels of two loss scenarios are the same, the final consequence level of the water and mud burst will also be that level. For example, if a water and mud burst caused economic losses of 2 million, the consequence level for economic losses would be level 3. Furthermore, if five people were seriously injured (SI = 5), the consequence level for casualties would also be level 3. In this case, the consequence level for the water and mud burst would also be level 3.

[0198] When the consequence levels of two loss scenarios are different, the final consequence level of the water and mud burst is the same as the higher of the two consequence levels. For example, after the water and mud burst occurs, it causes economic losses of 2 million, that is, the consequence level caused by economic losses is level 3; it also causes 3 minor injuries (MI=3), that is, the consequence level caused by casualties is level 2. If the consequence level caused by economic losses is higher than the consequence level caused by casualties, then the consequence level of the water and mud burst is the same as the consequence level caused by the higher economic losses, that is, the final consequence level of the water and mud burst is level 3.

[0199] For another example, preferably, in a specific embodiment of the present invention, when the losses incurred are three or more of economic losses, casualties, construction delays, or environmental impacts, the following situations may occur:

[0200] If the consequence level of three or more loss scenarios is N, the consequence level after the water and mud burst is N+1. For example, if the consequence level of economic loss is 4, the consequence level of casualties is 4, and the consequence level of construction delay is also 4, then the final consequence level after the water and mud burst is 5.

[0201] If the consequence levels of three or more loss scenarios are different, the final consequence level of water and mud burst will be the same as the higher of the three or more consequence levels. For example, if the consequence level of economic loss is level 4, the consequence level of casualties is level 3, and the consequence level of construction delay is level 2 or 3, the final consequence level of water and mud burst will be level 4.

[0202] Therefore, through the above steps 101 to 111, the tunnel water gushing and mud burst can be predicted, and the consequence level of the water gushing and mud burst can be predicted.

[0203] In addition, in the technical solution of the present invention, after the probability level and consequence level of water gushing and mud bursting are predicted, other situations or states of water gushing and mud bursting in the tunnel can be further predicted.

[0204] For example, preferably, in a specific embodiment of the present invention, Figure 5 As shown, the tunnel water and mud inrush prediction method may further include:

[0205] Step 112, determining the risk level of water gushing and mud bursting according to the probability level and consequence level of water gushing and mud bursting and the preset water gushing and mud bursting risk level standard.

[0206] After obtaining the probability level and consequence level of water gushing and mud bursting, the corresponding risk level of water gushing and mud bursting can be determined according to the preset water gushing and mud bursting risk level standard.

[0207] In the technical solution of the present invention, the risk level of the corresponding water and mud burst can be determined through a variety of specific implementation methods. The following will take one of the specific implementation methods as an example to introduce the technical solution of the present invention in detail.

[0208] For example, preferably, in a specific embodiment of the present invention, Figure 6 As shown, step 112 may include:

[0209] Step 21, obtaining a risk value of water gushing and mud bursting according to the probability level and consequence level of water gushing and mud bursting;

[0210] For example, preferably, in a specific embodiment of the present invention, Figure 7 As shown in the figure, the risk values of water and mud bursts can be obtained based on the probability level and consequence level of water and mud bursts, including:

[0211] Step 211, taking the probability level of water gushing and mud bursting as the corresponding probability prediction value;

[0212] For example, preferably, in a specific embodiment of the present invention, when the probability levels of water gushing and mud bursting are respectively level I to level V, the corresponding probability prediction values are also 1 to 5.

[0213] Step 212, taking the consequence level of water inrush and mud burst as the corresponding consequence prediction value;

[0214] For example, preferably, in a specific embodiment of the present invention, when the consequence levels of water gushing and mud bursting are 1 to 5, the corresponding consequence prediction values are also 1 to 5.

[0215] In step 213, the sum of the probability prediction value and the consequence prediction value is used as the risk value of water and mud burst.

[0216] After obtaining the probability prediction value and the consequence prediction value, the sum of the two values can be used as the risk value of water and mud burst.

[0217] For example, when the probability prediction value is 1 (probability level is level I) and the consequence prediction value is 1 (consequence level is level 1), the corresponding risk value of water and mud burst is 2;

[0218] When the probability level is 1 and the consequence level is 2, the corresponding risk value of water and mud burst is 3;

[0219] ...; and so on.

[0220] Step 22, determining the risk level of water gushing and mud bursting according to the risk value of water gushing and mud bursting.

[0221] After obtaining the risk value of water gushing and mud bursting, the risk level of water gushing and mud bursting can be determined based on the risk value.

[0222] For example, preferably, in a specific embodiment of the present invention, step 22 may include:

[0223] When the risk value of water gushing and mud bursting is less than or equal to the first risk threshold, it indicates that the risk is low, and thus the risk level of water gushing and mud bursting can be determined to be low (or low risk);

[0224] When the risk value of water gushing and mud bursting is less than or equal to the second risk threshold and greater than the first risk threshold, it indicates that there is a medium risk. Therefore, the risk level of water gushing and mud bursting can be determined to be medium (or called moderate risk).

[0225] When the risk value of water gushing and mud bursting is less than or equal to the third risk threshold and greater than the second risk threshold, it indicates that the risk is very high. Therefore, the risk level of water gushing and mud bursting can be determined to be high (or high risk).

[0226] When the risk value of water gushing and mud bursting is greater than the third risk threshold, it indicates that the risk is extremely high. Therefore, it can be determined that the risk level of water gushing and mud bursting is an extremely high level (or called an extremely high risk).

[0227] In addition, in the technical solution of the present invention, the values of the first risk threshold, the second risk threshold and the third risk threshold can be preset according to the needs of the actual application scenario.

[0228] For example, preferably, in a specific embodiment of the present invention, the first risk threshold, the second risk threshold and the third risk threshold may be 3, 5 and 7 respectively.

[0229] As shown in the following table:

[0230]

[0231] Therefore, through the above steps 101 to 112, the water gushing and mud bursting in the tunnel can be predicted, and the risk level of the water gushing and mud bursting can be predicted.

[0232] To sum up, in the technical solution of the present invention, a method for predicting water gushing and mud bursting in tunnels is proposed, so that the water gushing speed in the tunnel can be quickly predicted to avoid casualties caused by water gushing; the probability level of water gushing and mud bursting and the consequence level of water gushing and mud bursting can be predicted, and based on the probability level and consequence level of water gushing and mud bursting, a water gushing risk level evaluation can be provided for the tunnel construction unit, and a water gushing prediction can be made for the technical personnel, so that corresponding risk handling measures can be taken in advance according to the predicted risk level, thereby reducing risks and reducing losses as much as possible.

[0233] The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention. Any modifications, equivalent substitutions, improvements, etc. made within the spirit and principles of the present invention should be included in the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for predicting water inrush and mud burst in a tunnel, characterized in that: The method includes: Step A, obtaining geological data at a preset tunnel location; Step B, calculating the energy loss during the seepage process based on the obtained geological data; Step C, predicting the speed of water inrush in the tunnel based on the obtained geological data and energy loss during the seepage process; Step D, determining the groundwater pressure level value based on the obtained geological data and the preset groundwater pressure level standard; Step E: determining the groundwater level based on the obtained geological data and a preset groundwater level standard; Step F, determining the fault zone scale value based on the obtained geological data and a preset fault zone scale scale standard; Step G, determining the quality grade of the rock and soil mass in the fault zone based on the obtained geological data and the preset quality grade standard of the rock and soil mass in the fault zone; Step H, determining a level value for the probability of water inrush and mud burst based on the level value of groundwater pressure, the level value of groundwater volume, the level value of the fault zone scale, and the level value of the quality of the rock and soil within the fault zone; Step 1, determining the probability level of water gushing and mud bursting according to the level value of the probability of water gushing and mud bursting; The energy loss is calculated according to the following formula: Where Δh is the energy loss during the entire seepage process; μ is the fluid viscosity coefficient; v is the water flow velocity; D P is the equivalent diameter of the porous medium; l is the length of the seepage path.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The probability of water inrush and mud burst is calculated according to the following formula: Q t =Q p +Q q +Q s +Q m ; Among them, Q t The probability of water inrush and mud burst is expressed as the grade value, Q p Indicates the level value of groundwater pressure, Q q Indicates the grade value of groundwater, Q s Indicates the grade value of the fault zone scale, Q m A grade value indicating the quality of rock and soil within the fault zone.

3. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The method further includes: Step J, determining the losses after the water and mud burst occurs; Step K: determining the consequence level of the water gushing and mud bursting according to the loss situation after the water gushing and mud bursting and the preset consequence level standard.

4. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that The loss situations include: one or more of economic losses, casualties, construction delays or environmental impacts.

5. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that The method further includes: Step L, determining the risk level of water gushing and mud bursting according to the probability level and consequence level of water gushing and mud bursting and the preset water gushing and mud bursting risk level standard.

6. The method according to claim 5, characterized in that The step L comprises: Step L1, obtaining a risk value of water gushing and mud bursting according to the probability level and consequence level of water gushing and mud bursting; Step L2, determining the risk level of water gushing and mud bursting according to the risk value of water gushing and mud bursting.

7. The method according to claim 6, characterized in that The step L1 comprises: Step L11, taking the probability level of water gushing and mud bursting as the corresponding probability prediction value; Step L12, taking the consequence level of water gushing and mud bursting as the corresponding consequence prediction value; In step L13, the sum of the probability prediction value and the consequence prediction value is used as the risk value of water and mud burst.

8. The method according to claim 6, characterized in that The step L2 comprises: The risk value of water gushing and mud bursting is less than or equal to the first risk threshold, and the risk level of water gushing and mud bursting is low; The risk value of water gushing and mud bursting is less than or equal to the second risk threshold and greater than the first risk threshold, and the risk level of water gushing and mud bursting is medium; The risk value of water gushing and mud bursting is less than or equal to the third risk threshold and greater than the second risk threshold, and the risk level of water gushing and mud bursting is high; The risk value of water gushing and mud bursting is greater than the third risk threshold, and the risk level of water gushing and mud bursting is extremely high.

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