Power structure evolution simulation method, device and system for capacity-energy market

Abstract

The application discloses a power source structure evolution simulation method, device and system for a capacity-energy market, comprising the following steps: taking a target year as a cycle termination condition, cyclically executing a power source structure evolution evaluation and analysis step, and obtaining a power system power source structure evolution evaluation and analysis result; specifically, obtaining energy market clearing quantity and clearing price based on market data of a current year; obtaining initial capacity investment decisions of power generation enterprises based on the energy market clearing quantity and the clearing price; obtaining capacity market clearing quantity and clearing price based on the initial capacity investment decisions of the power generation enterprises; obtaining final capacity investment decisions of the power generation enterprises based on the capacity market clearing quantity and the clearing price; and obtaining a power source structure evolution condition of the current year and market data of the next year according to the final capacity investment decisions of the power generation enterprises. The application can effectively improve the accuracy of power source structure evolution analysis under a power market environment, and can assist long-term power source planning and capacity market mechanism design.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention belongs to the field of power market simulation technology, specifically relating to a power structure evolution simulation method, device, and system for capacity-energy markets. Background Technology

[0002] With the deepening of market-oriented reforms in the power industry, power plant construction is gradually shifting from unified government planning to independent determination by individual power generation companies based on market profitability assessments. The uncertainty of power generation investment guided by the power market environment leads to uncertainty in the evolution of the system's power structure, and also poses challenges to grid operation reliability and the low-carbon transformation of the energy structure under the power market environment.

[0003] As a crucial component of the electricity market system, the capacity market plays a vital role in power generation development within the electricity market environment. Currently, capacity markets are widely used in the United States, the United Kingdom, and other countries, and my country is actively promoting their introduction. However, current electricity market simulation methods and platforms only focus on the single energy market, lacking simulations of power structure evolution under the combined influence of the capacity and energy markets. The lack of consideration for benefit assessment within the capacity market and the coupled interactions between the capacity market, energy market, and power generation investment behavior of power generation companies affects the accuracy of power structure evolution analysis, thus limiting its practical application. Summary of the Invention

[0004] To address the aforementioned issues, this invention proposes a power structure evolution simulation method, device, and system oriented towards the capacity-energy market. It considers the coupling between the capacity market, the energy market, and power generation capacity investment, which can effectively improve the accuracy of power structure evolution analysis under the power market environment and assist in long-term power planning and capacity market mechanism design.

[0005] To achieve the above-mentioned technical objectives and effects, the present invention is implemented through the following technical solution:

[0006] In a first aspect, the present invention provides a power structure evolution simulation method for the capacity-energy market, including...

[0007] Achieve the target year;

[0008] Using the target year as the termination condition, the power structure evolution evaluation and analysis steps are executed cyclically to obtain the power system power structure evolution evaluation and analysis results.

[0009] The specific steps for evaluating and analyzing the evolution of the power supply structure are as follows:

[0010] Input the market data for the current year into the energy market clearing module to obtain the energy market clearing volume and clearing price;

[0011] The energy market clearing volume and clearing price are input into the initial capacity investment decision module to obtain the initial capacity investment decision for the power generation company.

[0012] The initial capacity investment decision of the power generation enterprise is input into the capacity market clearing module to obtain the capacity market clearing quantity and clearing price.

[0013] The capacity market clearing volume and clearing price are input into the final capacity investment decision module to obtain the final capacity investment decision of the power generation company.

[0014] Based on the power generation companies' final capacity investment decisions, we can obtain the current year's power structure evolution and the market data for the following year.

[0015] Optionally, the energy market clearing module includes an energy market clearing model;

[0016] The objective function of the energy market clearing model is to minimize the total electricity purchase cost, and its constraints include: power balance constraints, transmission capacity constraints, unit output constraints, and unit ramping constraints.

[0017] The objective function of the energy market clearing model is expressed as follows:

[0018]

[0019] In the formula, Indicates a time period; Indicates the total number of time periods within a year; Indicates the first The corresponding time period for each unit Price quote per unit of electricity; Indicates the first The corresponding time period for each unit The winning bid volume; This represents the total power generation cost for all units throughout the year and all time periods.

[0020] The power balance constraint is:

[0021]

[0022] In the formula, For the corresponding time period The dual multiplier of the power balance constraint; For time period The system load;

[0023] The transmission capacity constraint is:

[0024]

[0025] In the formula, Indicates the power transfer distribution factor; and These represent the active power injection vector and the nodal load vector of the power system, respectively. and These represent the lower and upper limit vectors of the transmission capacity, respectively. and These represent the dual multipliers corresponding to the lower and upper limits of the transmission capacity constraints, respectively.

[0026] The unit output constraint is:

[0027]

[0028] In the formula, and They represent the first Minimum and maximum output of each unit;

[0029] The unit's ramp-up constraint is:

[0030]

[0031]

[0032] In the formula, For the first The maximum ramp rate of each unit; For the first The maximum downhill ramp rate of each unit. Indicates the first The corresponding time period for each unit The winning bid volume.

[0033] Optionally, the method for obtaining the initial capacity investment decision of the power generation enterprise specifically includes:

[0034] The overall profit of the current power generation enterprise is calculated using the following formula:

[0035]

[0036] In the formula, The total net profit of power generation companies; Indicates a time period; Indicates the total number of time periods within a year; This represents the collection of all generating units owned by the power generation company; For the corresponding period of the energy market The clearing price; For the first The corresponding time period for each unit in the energy market The amount of cleared goods; This indicates the total annual energy market revenue of all generating units owned by the power generation company; This represents the total annual cost of all generating units owned by the power generation company;

[0037] Based on the overall profitability of the power generation company and its own investment risk appetite, the initial capacity investment decision of the power generation company is calculated. The formula for calculating the initial capacity investment decision of the power generation company is as follows:

[0038]

[0039]

[0040] In the formula, For power generation companies' initial capacity investment decisions; The investment ceiling for power generation companies is limited by factors such as funding and land availability; This refers to the maximum investment limit determined by the company based on its profitability. The annual fixed cost per unit capacity of the generating units invested in by power generation companies; The coupling coefficient reflects the firm's investment risk appetite. The larger the value, the higher the company's risk tolerance.

[0041] Optionally, the capacity market clearing module includes a capacity market clearing model;

[0042] The objective function of the capacity market clearing model is to minimize the total capacity cost, and its constraints include: total system capacity constraint, unit capacity constraint, and power supply structure constraint.

[0043] The objective function of the capacity market clearing model is expressed as follows:

[0044]

[0045] In the formula, Indicates the unit serial number; This represents the set of generating units whose new capacity is initially decided upon based on the initial capacity investment decision; This represents the set of current installed capacity units; Indicates the first Price quote per unit capacity of individual generating units; Indicates the first The winning bid capacity of each generating unit; This represents the total capacity cost for all generating units;

[0046] The total system capacity constraint is:

[0047]

[0048] In the formula, This is the maximum annual load; This is the capacity reserve factor; This represents the total capacity of all generating units;

[0049] The unit capacity constraint is:

[0050]

[0051] In the formula, and They represent the first Each generating unit corresponds to a lower and upper limit for the reported capacity;

[0052] The power supply structure constraints are as follows:

[0053]

[0054] In the formula, Indicates the first The winning bid capacity for units of the same power type; and They represent the first The lower and upper limits of the structural proportion of power generation units of the same power type.

[0055] Optionally, the final capacity investment decision module includes a final capacity investment decision model;

[0056] The objective function of the final capacity investment decision model is to maximize the company's estimated revenue. Its constraints include: upper and lower limits of investment capacity and integer constraints on investment capacity.

[0057] The objective function of the final capacity investment decision model is expressed as follows:

[0058]

[0059] In the formula, For power generation companies' final capacity investment decisions; The clearing price for the capacity market; For the first The clearing volume of individual generating units in the capacity market; This indicates the total annual market revenue of all generating units owned by the power generation company; The total annual revenue of the energy market in the target year, as estimated by power generation companies based on their final capacity investment decisions; The total annual power generation cost for the target year, estimated by power generation companies based on their final capacity investment decisions; Estimate the total annual revenue for power generation companies;

[0060] The upper and lower limits of the investment capacity are as follows:

[0061]

[0062] In the formula, This represents the initial capacity investment decision for power generation companies. Here, we set the upper limit for the final capacity investment decision of power generation companies, indicating that the investment decision cannot exceed the initial investment intention determined based on resources and profitability. This represents the cleared incremental unit capacity of power generation companies in the capacity market. Here, it is set as the lower limit of the power generation company's final capacity investment decision, indicating that in order to fulfill its capacity supply responsibility in the capacity market, the power generation company's investment decision cannot be lower than the cleared capacity in the capacity market.

[0063] The integer constraint on the investment capacity is:

[0064]

[0065] In the formula, This indicates the capacity of a single generating unit, representing the type of generating units invested in by the power generation company. It is a non-negative integer.

[0066] Optionally, obtaining the current year's power structure evolution based on the power generation company's final capacity investment decision specifically includes:

[0067] Based on the power generation company's final capacity investment decision, the unit capacity of the power generation company in the current year is obtained. The calculation formula is as follows:

[0068]

[0069] In the formula, This indicates the total generating unit capacity of the power generation company in the current year; This indicates the total generating unit capacity of the power generation company in the previous year; For power generation companies' final capacity investment decisions; This represents the total capacity of decommissioned generating units of power generation companies in the current year.

[0070] The formula for calculating the total capacity of a certain type of power supply and the current total system capacity is as follows:

[0071]

[0072]

[0073] In the formula, Indicates the first Total capacity of the power supply; Indicates the first The set of power generation companies included in a power source category; Indicates the total system capacity; This indicates the total number of power supply types.

[0074] The formula for calculating the structural proportion of a certain type of power supply is as follows:

[0075]

[0076] In the formula, Indicates the first The structural proportion of capacity for different power supply types.

[0077] Optionally, obtaining the market data for the following year based on the power generation company's final capacity investment decision specifically includes:

[0078] Update the total generating unit capacity of power generation enterprises to be consistent with the capacity situation after the evolution of the power structure in the current year, that is:

[0079]

[0080] In the formula, This indicates the initial total unit capacity of the power generation company for the following year.

[0081] The system load and predicted output of new energy sources for the following year are calculated to update the load forecast. The calculation formula is as follows:

[0082]

[0083]

[0084]

[0085] In the formula, and These represent the electricity load for the next year and the current year, respectively. This represents the annual growth rate of electricity load. and These represent the output of new energy sources in the following year and the current year, respectively. This represents the annual growth rate of new energy sources. The net load forecast for the following year;

[0086] Set the unit's technical parameters, unit cost data, power generation company's investment risk preference, system reliability requirements, network topology information, and cross-sections to be consistent with the data for the current year;

[0087] Generate market data for the following year.

[0088] Secondly, the present invention provides a power structure evolution simulation device for the capacity-energy market, comprising:

[0089] The acquisition module is used to obtain the target year;

[0090] The simulation module is used to repeatedly execute the power structure evolution evaluation and analysis steps with the target year as the loop termination condition, and obtain the power system power structure evolution evaluation and analysis results.

[0091] The specific steps for evaluating and analyzing the evolution of the power supply structure are as follows:

[0092] Input the market data for the current year into the energy market clearing module to obtain the energy market clearing volume and clearing price;

[0093] The energy market clearing volume and clearing price are input into the initial capacity investment decision module to obtain the initial capacity investment decision for the power generation company.

[0094] The initial capacity investment decision of the power generation enterprise is input into the capacity market clearing module to obtain the capacity market clearing quantity and clearing price.

[0095] The capacity market clearing volume and clearing price are input into the final capacity investment decision module to obtain the final capacity investment decision of the power generation company.

[0096] Based on the power generation companies' final capacity investment decisions, we can obtain the current year's power structure evolution and the market data for the following year.

[0097] Thirdly, the present invention provides a power structure evolution simulation system for the capacity-energy market, including a storage medium and a processor;

[0098] The storage medium is used to store instructions;

[0099] The processor is configured to operate according to the instructions to perform the steps of the method according to any one of the first aspects.

[0100] Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows:

[0101] This invention discloses a power structure evolution simulation analysis method, device, and system for the capacity-energy market. The method establishes a capacity market clearing model, an energy market clearing model, and a model for power generation companies' capacity investment decisions, which includes initial and final capacity investment decisions, specifically addressing the unique characteristics of the capacity market. Using capacity investment decisions, market clearing volume, and market clearing price as interaction variables, the method simulates the dynamic interaction between the capacity market, energy market, and power generation companies through time-series simulation. This simulation demonstrates the evolution of the power structure under the capacity-energy market environment and evaluates and analyzes the simulation results.

[0102] This invention simulates the coupled effects between the capacity market, the energy market, and the capacity investment behavior of power generation companies. It considers the combined effects of the capacity market and the energy market on the evolution of the power structure, which can effectively improve the accuracy of power structure evolution analysis under the power market environment and assist in long-term power planning and capacity market mechanism design. Attached Figure Description

[0103] To make the content of this invention easier to understand, the invention will be further described in detail below with reference to specific embodiments and accompanying drawings, wherein:

[0104] Figure 1 This is a schematic diagram illustrating the principle and process of a power structure evolution simulation method for the capacity-energy market according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0105] Figure 2 This is an initial annual load curve diagram of the test system according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0106] Figure 3 This is a simulation result diagram of the power supply structure evolution according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0107] Figure 4 This is an evaluation and analysis diagram of the output power supply structure in an embodiment of the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0108] To make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of this invention clearer, the invention will be further described in detail below with reference to embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative of the invention and are not intended to limit the scope of protection of the invention.

[0109] The application principle of the present invention will be described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0110] Example 1

[0111] This invention provides a simulation method for power structure evolution in the capacity-energy market, comprising the following steps:

[0112] (1) Input the market data for the current year into the energy market clearing module to obtain the energy market clearing volume and clearing price;

[0113] (2) Input the energy market clearing volume and clearing price into the initial capacity investment decision module to obtain the initial capacity investment decision of the power generation enterprise;

[0114] (3) Input the initial capacity investment decision of the power generation enterprise into the capacity market clearing module to obtain the capacity market clearing quantity and clearing price;

[0115] (4) Input the capacity market clearing volume and clearing price into the final capacity investment decision module to obtain the final capacity investment decision of the power generation enterprise;

[0116] (5) Based on the final capacity investment decision of the power generation enterprise, obtain the current year's power structure evolution and the market data for the next year;

[0117] (6) Repeat steps 1-5 until the target year to obtain the system power structure evolution evaluation and analysis results.

[0118] In the specific implementation process, the method in this embodiment of the invention first needs to acquire market data for the current year, including market operation data and basic data of market participants. The acquired market operation data includes unit operation, load forecasting, system reliability requirements, network topology information, and cross-section settings. The acquired basic data of market participants includes unit technical parameters, unit cost data, and investment risk preferences of power generation companies.

[0119] I. Establishing an energy market clearing model

[0120] The objective function of the energy market clearing model is to minimize the total cost of electricity purchase. Its constraints include: power balance constraints, transmission capacity constraints, unit output constraints, and unit ramp-up constraints.

[0121] The objective function of the energy market clearing model is:

[0122]

[0123] In the formula, Indicates a time period; Indicates the total number of time periods within a year; Indicates the first The corresponding time period for each unit Price quote per unit of electricity; Indicates the first The corresponding time period for each unit The winning bid volume; This represents the total power generation cost for all units throughout the year and all time periods.

[0124] The power balance constraint is:

[0125]

[0126] In the formula, For the corresponding time period The dual multiplier of the power balance constraint; For time period The system load;

[0127] The transmission capacity constraint is:

[0128]

[0129] In the formula, Indicates the power transfer distribution factor; and These represent the active power injection vector and the nodal load vector of the power system, respectively. and These represent the lower and upper limit vectors of the transmission capacity, respectively. and These represent the dual multipliers corresponding to the lower and upper limits of the transmission capacity constraints, respectively.

[0130] The unit output constraint is:

[0131]

[0132] In the formula, and They represent the first Minimum and maximum output of each unit;

[0133] The unit's ramp-up constraint is:

[0134]

[0135]

[0136] In the formula, For the first The maximum ramp rate of each unit; For the first The maximum downhill ramp rate of each unit.

[0137] II. Establishing an Initial Capacity Investment Decision Model

[0138] The overall profit of the current power generation enterprise is calculated using the following formula:

[0139]

[0140] In the formula, The total net profit of power generation companies; Indicates a time period; Indicates the total number of time periods within a year; This represents the collection of all generating units owned by the power generation company; For the corresponding period of the energy market The clearing price; For the first time last year The corresponding time period for each unit in the energy market The amount of cleared goods; This indicates the total annual energy market revenue of all generating units owned by the power generation company; This indicates the total annual market revenue of all generating units owned by the power generation company in the previous year; This represents the total annual cost of all generating units owned by the power generation company in the previous year;

[0141] Based on the overall profitability of power generation enterprises in the previous year, and combined with the investment risk preferences of the power generation enterprises themselves, the initial capacity investment decision of the power generation enterprises is calculated. The calculation formula for the initial capacity investment decision of the power generation enterprises is as follows:

[0142]

[0143]

[0144] In the formula, For power generation companies' initial capacity investment decisions; The investment ceiling for power generation companies is limited by factors such as funding and land availability; This refers to the maximum investment limit determined by the company based on its profitability. The annual fixed cost per unit capacity of the generating units invested in by power generation companies; The coupling coefficient reflects the firm's investment risk appetite. The larger the value, the higher the company's risk tolerance.

[0145] III. Establishing a capacity market clearing model

[0146] The objective function of the capacity market clearing model is to minimize the total capacity cost. Its constraints include: total system capacity constraints, unit capacity constraints, and power supply structure constraints.

[0147] The objective function of the capacity market clearing model is expressed as follows:

[0148]

[0149] In the formula, Indicates the unit serial number; This represents the set of generating units whose new capacity is initially decided upon based on the initial capacity investment decision; This represents the set of current installed capacity units; Indicates the first Price quote per unit capacity of individual generating units; Indicates the first The winning bid capacity of each generating unit; This represents the total capacity cost for all generating units;

[0150] The total system capacity constraint is:

[0151]

[0152] In the formula, This is the maximum annual load; This is the capacity reserve factor; This represents the total capacity of all generating units;

[0153] The unit capacity constraint is:

[0154]

[0155] In the formula, and They represent the first Each generating unit corresponds to a lower and upper limit for the reported capacity;

[0156] The power supply structure constraints are as follows:

[0157]

[0158] In the formula, Indicates the first The winning bid capacity for units of the same power type; and They represent the first The lower and upper limits of the structural proportion of power generation units of the same power type.

[0159] IV. Establishing a Final Capacity Investment Decision Model

[0160] The objective function of the final capacity investment decision model is to maximize the company's estimated revenue. Its constraints include: upper and lower limits of investment capacity and integer constraints on investment capacity.

[0161] The objective function of the final capacity investment decision model is:

[0162]

[0163] In the formula, For power generation companies' final capacity investment decisions; The clearing price for the capacity market; For the first The clearing volume of individual generating units in the capacity market; This indicates the total annual market revenue of all generating units owned by the power generation company; The total annual revenue of the energy market in the target year, as estimated by power generation companies based on their final capacity investment decisions; The total annual power generation cost for the target year, estimated by power generation companies based on their final capacity investment decisions; Estimate the total annual revenue for power generation companies;

[0164] The upper and lower limits of the investment capacity are as follows:

[0165]

[0166] In the formula, This represents the initial capacity investment decision for power generation companies. Here, we set the upper limit for the final capacity investment decision of power generation companies, indicating that the investment decision cannot exceed the initial investment intention determined based on resources and profitability. This represents the cleared incremental unit capacity of power generation companies in the capacity market. Here, it is set as the lower limit of the power generation company's final capacity investment decision, indicating that in order to fulfill its capacity supply responsibility in the capacity market, the power generation company's investment decision cannot be lower than the cleared capacity in the capacity market.

[0167] The integer constraint on the investment capacity is:

[0168]

[0169] In the formula, This indicates the capacity of a single generating unit, representing the type of generating units invested in by the power generation company. It is a non-negative integer.

[0170] V. Calculate the evolution of the power supply structure and market data for the following year.

[0171] Based on the final capacity investment decisions of power generation companies, the evolution of the power structure for the current year is obtained, specifically including:

[0172] Based on the power generation company's final capacity investment decision, the unit capacity of the power generation company in the current year is obtained. The calculation formula is as follows:

[0173]

[0174] In the formula, This indicates the total generating unit capacity of the power generation company in the current year; This indicates the total generating unit capacity of the power generation company in the previous year; For power generation companies' final capacity investment decisions; This represents the total capacity of decommissioned generating units of power generation companies in the current year.

[0175] The formula for calculating the total capacity of a certain type of power supply and the current total system capacity is as follows:

[0176]

[0177]

[0178] Based on the power generation company's final capacity investment decision, the unit capacity of the power generation company in the current year is obtained. The calculation formula is as follows:

[0179] In the formula, Indicates the first Total capacity of the power supply; Indicates the first The set of power generation companies included in a power source category; Indicates the total system capacity; This indicates the total number of power supply types.

[0180] The formula for calculating the structural proportion of a certain type of power supply is as follows:

[0181]

[0182] In the formula, Indicates the first The structural proportion of capacity for different power supply types.

[0183] The process of obtaining market data for the following year based on the power generation company's final capacity investment decision specifically includes:

[0184] Update the total generating unit capacity of power generation enterprises to be consistent with the capacity situation after the evolution of the power structure in the current year, that is:

[0185]

[0186] In the formula, This indicates the initial total unit capacity of the power generation company for the following year.

[0187] The system load and predicted output of new energy sources for the following year are calculated to update the load forecast. The calculation formula is as follows:

[0188]

[0189]

[0190]

[0191] In the formula, and These represent the electricity load for the next year and the current year, respectively. This represents the annual growth rate of electricity load. and These represent the output of new energy sources in the following year and the current year, respectively. This represents the annual growth rate of new energy sources. The net load forecast for the following year;

[0192] Set the unit's technical parameters, unit cost data, power generation company's investment risk preference, system reliability requirements, network topology information, and cross-sections to be consistent with the data for the current year;

[0193] Generate market data for the following year.

[0194] In its implementation, the power structure evolution simulation method for the capacity-energy market includes the following steps:

[0195] First, enter the following data:

[0196] 1. Input market data

[0197] 1.1 Input market operation data

[0198] The test power system is a modified IEEE 300-node system. The energy market participants in the test system include four types of power sources: coal-fired, gas-fired, wind power, and solar power. The capacity market participants include four types of generating units: large-scale coal-fired (G1), small-scale coal-fired (G2), gas-fired (G3), and combined cycle gas-fired (G4). The initial total installed capacity is 160,900 MW, of which renewable energy accounts for 16%. The initial annual load curve is shown below. Figure 2 The annual load growth rate is 5%, the annual installed capacity growth rate of new energy sources is 15%, and the reliable capacity conversion factor is 0.3. The system reliability requirement is a system capacity margin of 15%.

[0199] 1.2 Input basic data of market members

[0200] The basic data of market participants include unit technical parameters, unit cost data, and investment risk preferences of power generation companies, as shown in Tables 1-3.

[0201] Table 1 Unit Technical Parameters

[0202] Step 2: Energy Market Clearing Simulation

[0203] Input the market data for the current year into the energy market clearing module to obtain the energy market clearing volume and clearing price.

[0204] Step 3: Determine the initial capacity investment decision for power generation companies

[0205] Input the energy market clearing volume and clearing price obtained in step 2 into the initial capacity investment decision module to obtain the initial capacity investment decision for the power generation company.

[0206] Step 4: Capacity Market Clearing Simulation

[0207] Input the initial capacity investment decision data of the power generation enterprise obtained in step 3 into the capacity market clearing module to obtain the capacity market clearing volume and clearing price.

[0208] Step 5: Determine the final capacity investment decision for power generation companies

[0209] Input the capacity market clearing volume and clearing price data obtained in step 6 into the final capacity investment decision module to obtain the final capacity investment decision of the power generation company.

[0210] Step 6: Evolution of the power structure in the current year

[0211] Based on the final capacity investment decisions of power generation companies obtained in step 7, the evolution of the power structure for the current year is obtained, and.

[0212] Step 7: Simulation of power supply structure evolution

[0213] Repeat steps 1-5 until the target year to obtain the system power structure evolution evaluation and analysis results.

[0214] The simulation target year for this test system is set to 15 years. The capacity evolution results for each power supply type obtained from the simulation are shown in Table 4, and the corresponding power supply structure evolution is shown in [Table 4]. Figure 3 .

[0215] The simulation evaluation and analysis results of the output power structure evolution are as follows: Figure 4 As shown.

[0216] Example 2

[0217] Based on the same inventive concept as in Embodiment 1, this embodiment of the invention provides a power structure evolution simulation device for the capacity-energy market, comprising:

[0218] The acquisition module is used to obtain the target year;

[0219] The simulation module is used to repeatedly execute the power structure evolution evaluation and analysis steps with the target year as the loop termination condition, and obtain the power system power structure evolution evaluation and analysis results.

[0220] The specific steps for evaluating and analyzing the evolution of the power supply structure are as follows:

[0221] Input the market data for the current year into the energy market clearing module to obtain the energy market clearing volume and clearing price;

[0222] The energy market clearing volume and clearing price are input into the initial capacity investment decision module to obtain the initial capacity investment decision for the power generation company.

[0223] The initial capacity investment decision of the power generation enterprise is input into the capacity market clearing module to obtain the capacity market clearing quantity and clearing price.

[0224] The capacity market clearing volume and clearing price are input into the final capacity investment decision module to obtain the final capacity investment decision of the power generation company.

[0225] Based on the power generation companies' final capacity investment decisions, we can obtain the current year's power structure evolution and the market data for the following year.

[0226] The rest are the same as in Example 1.

[0227] Example 3

[0228] This invention provides a power structure evolution simulation system for the capacity-energy market, including a storage medium and a processor;

[0229] The storage medium is used to store instructions;

[0230] The processor is configured to operate according to the instructions to perform the steps of the method according to any one of Embodiment 1.

[0231] The foregoing has shown and described the basic principles, main features, and advantages of the present invention. Those skilled in the art should understand that the present invention is not limited to the above embodiments. The embodiments and descriptions in the specification are merely illustrative of the principles of the invention. Various changes and modifications can be made to the invention without departing from its spirit and scope, and all such changes and modifications fall within the scope of the present invention as claimed. The scope of protection of this invention is defined by the appended claims and their equivalents.

Claims

1. A power structure evolution simulation method for a capacity-energy market, characterized by, comprising acquiring a target year; performing power structure evolution evaluation and analysis steps in a loop with the target year as the loop termination condition to obtain power system power structure evolution evaluation and analysis results; the power structure evolution evaluation and analysis steps are specifically: inputting market data of the current year into an energy market clearing module to obtain energy market clearing quantity and clearing price; inputting the energy market clearing quantity and clearing price into an initial capacity investment decision module to obtain a power generation enterprise initial capacity investment decision; inputting the power generation enterprise initial capacity investment decision into a capacity market clearing module to obtain capacity market clearing quantity and clearing price; inputting the capacity market clearing quantity and clearing price into a final capacity investment decision module to obtain a power generation enterprise final capacity investment decision; obtaining power structure evolution in the current year and market data of the next year according to the power generation enterprise final capacity investment decision; the energy market clearing module includes an energy market clearing model; an objective function of the energy market clearing model is to minimize total power purchase cost, and constraint conditions thereof include power balance constraint, transmission capacity constraint, unit output constraint and unit ramping constraint; the method for obtaining the power generation enterprise initial capacity investment decision specifically includes: calculating total power generation enterprise profit, and a calculation formula of the total power generation enterprise profit is: ， wherein, is the total net revenue of the power generation enterprise; denotes a time period; denotes the total number of time periods in a year; denotes the set of all units owned by the power generation enterprise; is the clearing price of the energy market for the time period ; is the clearing quantity of the energy market for the time period by the th unit; denotes the total energy market revenue of all units owned by the power generation enterprise in a year; denotes the total cost of all units owned by the power generation enterprise in a year; based on the total power generation enterprise profit, and in combination with power generation enterprise self-investment risk preference, calculating the power generation enterprise initial capacity investment decision, and a calculation formula of the power generation enterprise initial capacity investment decision is: ， ， In the formula, is the initial capacity investment decision of the power generation enterprise; is the investment upper limit value of the power generation enterprise limited by funds and sites; is the investment upper limit value determined by the enterprise based on the profit situation; is the fixed cost per unit capacity of the type of unit invested by the power generation enterprise per year; is the coupling coefficient, which reflects the investment risk preference of the enterprise, The larger, the higher the risk tolerance of the enterprise. the capacity market clearing module includes a capacity market clearing model; an objective function of the capacity market clearing model is to minimize total capacity cost, and constraint conditions thereof include system total capacity constraint, unit capacity constraint and power structure constraint; the final capacity investment decision module includes a final capacity investment decision model; an objective function of the final capacity investment decision model is to maximize enterprise estimated revenue, and constraint conditions thereof include investment capacity upper and lower limit constraint and investment capacity integer constraint. 2.The method of claim 1, wherein the method further comprises: an expression of the objective function of the energy market clearing model is: ， In the formula, denotes the time period; denotes the total number of time periods in a year; denotes the unit electricity price of the th unit corresponding to the time period ; denotes the winning electricity quantity of the th unit corresponding to the time period ; denotes the total generation cost of all units in all time periods in a year; the power balance constraint is: ， wherein is the power balance constraint for the corresponding time period is the dual multiplier for the power balance constraint; is the system load for the time period is the system load for the time period the transmission capacity constraint is: ， wherein, denotes the power transfer distribution factor; and denote the active power injection vector and the nodal load vector of the power system, respectively; and denote the lower and upper limit vectors of transmission capacities, respectively; and denote the dual multipliers corresponding to the lower and upper transmission capacity constraints, respectively. the unit output constraint is: ， In the formula, and respectively represent the minimum output and the maximum output of the first unit. the unit ramping constraint is: ， ， In the formula, is the maximum up ramp rate of the nth unit; is the maximum down ramp rate of the nth unit, represents the winning electricity of the nth unit in the corresponding period . 3.The method of claim 1, wherein the method further comprises: an expression of the objective function of the capacity market clearing model is: ， In the formula, represents the unit of the machine group number; represents the set of the initial investment decision of the newly built machine group capacity; represents the set of the current built stock machine group capacity; represents the unit capacity offer of the th machine group; represents the bid capacity of the th machine group; represents the total capacity cost of all machine groups; the system total capacity constraint is: ， wherein is the annual maximum load; is the capacity reserve factor; denotes the total capacity of all units; the unit capacity constraint is: ， In the formula, and They represent the first Each generating unit corresponds to a lower and upper limit for the reported capacity; the power structure constraint is: ， In the formula, indicates the winning capacity of the unit of the power supply type of the first class; and respectively indicate the lower limit and the upper limit value of the structural proportion of the unit of the power supply type of the first class. 4.The method of claim 1, wherein the method further comprises: an expression of the objective function of the final capacity investment decision model is: ， In the formula, For power generation companies' final capacity investment decisions; The clearing price for the capacity market; For the first The clearing volume of individual generating units in the capacity market; This indicates the total annual market revenue of all generating units owned by the power generation company; The total annual revenue of the energy market in the target year, as estimated by power generation companies based on their final capacity investment decisions; The total annual power generation cost for the target year, estimated by power generation companies based on their final capacity investment decisions; Estimate the total annual revenue for power generation companies; the investment capacity upper and lower limit constraint is: ， In the formula, is the initial capacity investment decision of the power generation enterprise, which is set as the upper limit value of the final capacity investment decision of the power generation enterprise, representing that the investment decision cannot exceed the initial investment willingness determined according to resources and profit conditions; is the out-of-clearing incremental unit capacity of the power generation enterprise in the capacity market, which is set as the lower limit value of the final capacity investment decision of the power generation enterprise, representing that the power generation enterprise cannot invest below the capacity market out-of-clearing amount in order to fulfill the capacity supply responsibility in the capacity market. the investment capacity integer constraint is: ， In the formula, represents the single unit capacity of the type of unit that the power generation enterprise invests in; is a non-negative integer.

5. The method of claim 1, wherein: obtaining power structure evolution in the current year according to the power generation enterprise final capacity investment decision specifically includes: obtaining unit capacity of the power generation enterprise in the current year according to the power generation enterprise final capacity investment decision, and a calculation formula is: ， wherein represents the total installed capacity of the power generation enterprise in the current year; represents the total installed capacity of the power generation enterprise in the previous year; is the final capacity investment decision of the power generation enterprise; is the total decommissioned installed capacity of the power generation enterprise in the current year; calculating total capacity of a certain type of power and current system total capacity, and a calculation formula is: ， ， In the formula, represents the number of the first type power sources; represents the number of the first type power sources; represents the total capacity of the system; represents the total number of power source types; calculating structure proportion of a certain type of power, and a calculation formula is: ， In the formula, indicates the the capacity structure ratio of the power supply type.

6. The method of claim 1, wherein: obtaining market data of the next year according to the power generation enterprise final capacity investment decision specifically includes: The total unit capacity of the power generation enterprise is updated to be consistent with the capacity after the power source structure evolution in the current year, that is: ， In the formula, represents the initial total unit capacity of the power generation enterprise in the next year; The system load and new energy predicted output in the next year are calculated, so as to update the load prediction, and the calculation formula is: ， ， ， wherein, and denote the power consumption load of the next year and the current year, respectively; is the annual growth rate of the power consumption load; and denote the new energy output of the next year and the current year, respectively; is the annual growth rate of the new energy; is the net load prediction value of the next year; The unit technical parameters, unit cost data, power generation enterprise investment risk preference, system reliability requirement, network topology information and section are set to be consistent with the data in the current year; The market data in the next year is generated.

7. A power structure evolution simulation device for the capacity-energy market, characterized in that, It includes: An acquisition module is configured to acquire a target year; An simulation module is configured to execute the power source structure evolution evaluation and analysis step in a loop with the target year as a loop termination condition to obtain a power system power source structure evolution evaluation and analysis result; The power source structure evolution evaluation and analysis step specifically includes: The market data in the current year is input into an energy market clearing module to obtain energy market clearing quantity and clearing price; The energy market clearing quantity and clearing price are input into an initial capacity investment decision module to obtain an initial capacity investment decision of the power generation enterprise; The initial capacity investment decision of the power generation enterprise is input into a capacity market clearing module to obtain capacity market clearing quantity and clearing price; The capacity market clearing quantity and clearing price are input into a final capacity investment decision module to obtain a final capacity investment decision of the power generation enterprise; According to the final capacity investment decision of the power generation enterprise, the power source structure evolution in the current year and the market data in the next year are obtained; The energy market clearing module includes an energy market clearing model; The objective function of the energy market clearing model is to minimize the total power purchase cost, and the constraint conditions include power balance constraint, transmission capacity constraint, unit output constraint and unit ramping constraint; The method for obtaining the initial capacity investment decision of the power generation enterprise specifically includes: The total profit of the current power generation enterprise is calculated, and the calculation formula of the total profit of the power generation enterprise is: ， wherein, is the total net revenue of the power generation enterprise; denotes a time period; denotes the total number of time periods in a year; denotes the set of all units owned by the power generation enterprise; is the clearing price of the energy market for the corresponding time period ; is the clearing quantity of the energy market for the corresponding time period by the th unit; denotes the total energy market revenue of all units owned by the power generation enterprise in a year; denotes the total cost of all units owned by the power generation enterprise in a year; Based on the total profit of the power generation enterprise, the initial capacity investment decision of the power generation enterprise is calculated in combination with the investment risk preference of the power generation enterprise, and the calculation formula of the initial capacity investment decision of the power generation enterprise is: ， ， In the formula, is the initial capacity investment decision of the power generation enterprise; is the investment upper limit value of the power generation enterprise limited by funds and site; is the investment upper limit value determined by the enterprise based on the profit situation; is the fixed cost per unit capacity of the type of generating unit invested by the power generation enterprise per year; is the coupling coefficient, which reflects the investment risk preference of the enterprise, The larger, the higher the risk tolerance of the enterprise. The capacity market clearing module includes a capacity market clearing model; The objective function of the capacity market clearing model is to minimize the total capacity cost, and the constraint conditions include system total capacity constraint, unit capacity constraint and power source structure constraint; The final capacity investment decision module includes a final capacity investment decision model; The objective function of the final capacity investment decision model is to maximize the estimated enterprise income, and the constraint conditions include investment capacity upper and lower limit constraint and investment capacity integer constraint.

8. A capacity-energy market oriented power structure evolution simulation system, characterized by, It includes a storage medium and a processor; The storage medium is used to store instructions; The processor is used to operate according to the instructions to execute the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1-6.

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