New energy hydrogen production electrolytic cell installation demand prediction method and device

Abstract

The invention discloses a new energy hydrogen production electrolytic cell installation demand prediction method and device. The method comprises the following steps: determining a new energy installation plan of a target year of a to-be-tested power grid, and determining an output curve of the target year of a new energy station under different new energy output composition scenes according to the installation plan; performing electric power and electric quantity analysis on the to-be-tested power grid according to a pre-constructed electric power and electric quantity balance analysis data model and the output curve, and determining a peak regulation demand and a new energy consumption demand of the to-be-tested power grid; performing power system safety and stability analysis according to a pre-constructed power system safety and stability simulation analysis data model, and determining new energy acceptance limit output of the to-be-tested power grid and a new energy output adjustment amount accumulated value under stability constraint; and according to the power grid peak regulation demand, the new energy consumption demand and the new energy output adjustment amount accumulated value, determining a new energy hydrogen production electrolytic cell installation demand prediction value under multiple constraints of the to-be-tested power grid.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of new energy hydrogen production, and more specifically, to a method and device for predicting the installed capacity demand of a new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer. Background Art

[0002] As an important part of the new energy system, hydrogen energy will give full play to its advantages of long regulation cycle and large energy storage capacity, carry out demonstrations of hydrogen energy storage in application scenarios such as renewable energy consumption and grid peak regulation, explore and cultivate a new integrated application model of "wind and solar power generation + hydrogen energy storage", and gradually form an electric power system energy storage system that integrates various energy storage technologies such as pumped storage, electrochemical energy storage, and hydrogen energy storage.

[0003] The application value of hydrogen energy storage on the power supply side is mainly reflected in reducing power abandonment, smoothing fluctuations and tracking output. The application value on the grid side is mainly reflected in providing peak-shaving capacity for grid operation and alleviating congestion of transmission and transformation lines. The application value on the load side is mainly reflected in participating in power demand response, realizing electricity price difference arbitrage and serving as an emergency backup power supply.

[0004] In terms of new energy consumption, due to the natural volatility of new energy output such as photovoltaic and wind power, the problem of abandoned light and wind has always existed in the power system. Using generalized hydrogen energy storage to convert electricity that cannot be connected to the grid into green hydrogen on site can not only solve the problem of new energy consumption, but also provide clean and cheap hydrogen energy for local industries, transportation and construction, and extend the green industrial chain.

[0005] At present, in terms of the application of hydrogen energy in power systems, domestic and foreign research institutions, universities and enterprises have conducted a lot of research on the basic principles, technical characteristics and other basic issues of key technologies of electric hydrogen coupling, but the focus is mostly on the electrolysis of water to produce hydrogen and the hydrogen storage and transportation links. In terms of power system applications, some preliminary analysis has been carried out from the perspectives of simulation models and control strategies. However, research on the demand for electrolyzer installation has not been carried out from the perspective of achieving the goals of new energy consumption and power peak regulation, and there is no publicly published method for predicting the demand for electrolyzer installation, and the technology in this field is still blank. Summary of the invention

[0006] In view of the deficiencies in the prior art, the present invention provides a method and device for predicting the installed capacity demand of a new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer.

[0007] According to one aspect of the present invention, a method for predicting the installed capacity demand of a new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer is provided, comprising:

[0008] Determine the target year's renewable energy installed capacity plan for the power grid to be tested, and determine the target year's output curves of renewable energy stations under different renewable energy output composition scenarios based on the installed capacity plan;

[0009] Conduct power analysis on the power grid to be tested based on the pre-built power balance analysis data model and output curve to determine the peak load regulation demand and new energy consumption demand of the power grid to be tested;

[0010] Conduct power system safety and stability analysis based on the pre-built power system safety and stability simulation analysis data model, determine the new energy acceptance limit output of the power grid to be tested and the cumulative value of the new energy output adjustment under stability constraints;

[0011] According to the peak-shaving demand of the power grid, the demand for new energy consumption and the cumulative value of the new energy output adjustment, the predicted value of the installed capacity demand of the new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer under the multiple constraints of the power grid to be tested is determined.

[0012] Optionally, the new energy installed capacity planning includes: site selection for wind power and photovoltaic power stations, total installed capacity of power stations, capacity of single units, planned grid connection points, wind resource assessment data for wind farms, and solar energy resource assessment data for photovoltaic power stations.

[0013] Optionally, the output curve of the target year of the new energy station under different new energy output composition scenarios is determined according to the installed capacity planning, including:

[0014] According to the installed capacity planning, different new energy output combination scenarios are formed according to high wind power output, low wind power output, zero wind power output and high photovoltaic output, low photovoltaic output, and zero photovoltaic output;

[0015] Predict the output curve of new energy stations for 8760 hours throughout the year under different new energy output combination scenarios.

[0016] Optionally, the power grid to be tested is analyzed for power and electricity according to the pre-built power and electricity balance analysis data model and the output curve to determine the peak load regulation demand and new energy consumption demand of the power grid to be tested, including:

[0017] Step 1: Input the output curve into the power balance analysis data model to adjust the new energy output data in the power balance analysis of the power system under different scenarios;

[0018] Step 2: Combined with the power supply structure and load characteristics of the power grid to be tested, taking into account the system reserve rate, coal-fired power obstruction rate, water supply in the target year, and the capacity and water head of each reservoir, the target year power and electricity balance production simulation of the power grid to be tested is carried out to determine the power and electricity balance analysis results under multiple scenarios of the power supply output of the power grid to be tested, where the power and electricity balance analysis results include: power balance surplus and electricity balance surplus;

[0019] Step 3: Determine the results of the power balance analysis. If the system has a surplus of new energy power or power, record the power surplus P of the power grid to be tested under the power balance requirement. B1_RES and power surplus Q B1_RES 、Power shortage PB2_RES And power shortage Q B2_RES , and output the peak load demand of power grid;

[0020] Step 4: Calculate the new energy consumption rate μ. When the new energy consumption rate is less than the specified target value, output the new energy consumption demand. The calculation formula of the new energy consumption rate μ is:

[0021] μ=Q 用电_RES / Q 装机_RES

[0022] In the formula, Q 用电_RES and Q 装机_RES They represent the actual power generation and theoretical power generation of renewable energy respectively.

[0023] Optionally, a power system safety and stability analysis is performed according to a pre-built power system safety and stability simulation analysis data model to determine the new energy acceptance limit output of the power grid to be tested and the cumulative value of the new energy output adjustment under the stability constraint, including:

[0024] Step 1: In the power system safety and stability simulation analysis data model of the power grid to be tested, according to the power and electricity balance situation, establish or modify the power system safety and stability simulation analysis data model under different renewable energy output scenarios;

[0025] Step 2: Based on the revised power system simulation analysis data model, conduct safety and stability analysis of the target year of the power grid to be tested, and determine the safety and stability analysis results, where the safety and stability analysis includes: reactive voltage, short-circuit current, static safety, static stability, transient stability, dynamic stability, voltage stability, and frequency stability analysis;

[0026] Step 3: Determine the safety and stability analysis results. If the power grid to be tested is unstable, determine whether the cause of the instability of the power grid to be tested is the unreasonable proportion of renewable energy output. If so, proceed to step 4; otherwise, proceed to step 5. If the power grid is stable, proceed to step 6.

[0027] Step 4: Go to step 1 to adjust the proportion of renewable energy output in the power grid, and record the cumulative value of renewable energy output adjustment ΔP RES ;

[0028] Step 5: Correct the grid operation mode or adjust the simulation analysis model parameters of the components that cause instability in the grid to form a new simulation analysis data model and proceed to step 1;

[0029] Step 6: Record and output the new energy output value, new energy output ratio and the cumulative value ΔP of the new energy output adjustment that meet the requirements of safe and stable operation of the power grid RES ;

[0030] Step 7: If ΔP RES>0, redetermine the power balance.

[0031] Optionally, according to the peak load demand of the power grid, the demand for new energy consumption and the cumulative value of the new energy output adjustment, the predicted value of the installed capacity demand of the new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer under the multiple constraints of the power grid to be tested is determined, including:

[0032] Step 1: In the case of power and electricity balance, if the grid under test has no power or electricity surplus or shortage, then the output electrolyzer demand P ET =0, if there is a surplus, go to step 2, if there is a deficit, go to step 3;

[0033] Step 2: Based on the power surplus P B1_RES Or power surplus Q B1_RES Calculate the minimum value P of the electrolyzer power demand under surplus conditions ET1_Q and the maximum value P ET1_P , and its calculation formula is:

[0034] P ET1_Q =(μ0Q 装机_RES -Q B1_RES ) / T 氢

[0035] P ET1_P =P B1_RES

[0036] In the formula, μ0 represents the new energy consumption target, T 氢 Indicates the annual operating hours of hydrogen production from new energy sources;

[0037] Step 3: According to the power shortage P B2_RES Or power shortage Q B2_RES Calculate the minimum value P of the electrolyzer power demand for the power grid down-peak regulation under the condition of power shortage ET2_Q and the maximum value P ET2_P , and its calculation formula is:

[0038] P ET2_Q =Q B2_RES / T 氢

[0039] P ET2_P =P B2_RES

[0040] Step 4: According to the safety and stability limit output of new energy and the cumulative value of new energy output adjustment ΔP RES , calculate the power demand value P of the electrolyzer for the new energy stability limit ET3 , and its calculation formula is:

[0041] P ET3 =ΔP RES

[0042] Step 5: Based on the electrolytic cell power demand values ​​calculated in Steps 1, 2, and 3, calculate the electrolytic cell installed capacity demand forecast value P that meets the multiple constraints of consumption, peak load regulation, and stability. ET The value range of is calculated as follows:

[0043] P ET ≥min(P ET1_Q ,P ET2_Q ,P ET3 )

[0044]

[0045] Where P H2 Indicates the adjustable capacity of the grid-connected water electrolysis hydrogen production device;

[0046] Step 6: Get the electrolytic cell power demand value P ET3 and the predicted value of electrolytic cell installed capacity demand P ET The maximum value of is used as the forecast value of installed capacity demand for new energy hydrogen production electrolyzers.

[0047] According to another aspect of the present invention, a device for predicting the installed capacity demand of a new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer is provided, comprising:

[0048] The first determination module is used to determine the new energy installed capacity planning of the target year of the power grid to be tested, and determine the output curve of the new energy station in the target year under different new energy output composition scenarios according to the installed capacity planning;

[0049] The second determination module is used to perform power analysis on the power grid to be tested based on the pre-built power balance analysis data model and the output curve, and determine the peak load demand and new energy consumption demand of the power grid to be tested;

[0050] The third determination module is used to perform power system safety and stability analysis based on a pre-built power system safety and stability simulation analysis data model, and determine the new energy acceptance limit output of the power grid to be tested and the cumulative value of the new energy output adjustment under stability constraints;

[0051] The fourth determination module is used to determine the predicted value of the installed capacity demand of the new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer under multiple constraints of the power grid to be tested according to the peak-shaving demand of the power grid, the demand for new energy consumption and the cumulative value of the new energy output adjustment.

[0052] According to another aspect of the present invention, a computer-readable storage medium is provided, wherein the storage medium stores a computer program, and the computer program is used to execute the method described in any one of the above aspects of the present invention.

[0053] According to another aspect of the present invention, an electronic device is provided, comprising: a processor; a memory for storing instructions executable by the processor; the processor is configured to read the executable instructions from the memory and execute the instructions to implement the method described in any one of the above aspects of the present invention.

[0054] Therefore, the present invention takes into account the conditions such as safety and stability, new energy consumption, and power balance that must be considered in the actual operation of the power grid, and ultimately reasonably determines the electrolyzer installation demand that meets the multiple requirements of stability, peak regulation and consumption based on the regulation performance and adjustable capacity of the new energy hydrogen production equipment. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0055] A more complete understanding of exemplary embodiments of the present invention may be obtained by referring to the following drawings:

[0056] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of a method for predicting the installed capacity demand of a new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer provided by an exemplary embodiment of the present invention;

[0057] Figure 2 It is another flow chart of a method for predicting the installed capacity demand of a new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer provided by an exemplary embodiment of the present invention;

[0058] Figure 3 It is a structural schematic diagram of a new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer installed capacity demand prediction device provided by an exemplary embodiment of the present invention;

[0059] Figure 4 This is a structure of an electronic device provided by an exemplary embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0060] Below, the exemplary embodiments according to the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, rather than all the embodiments of the present invention, and it should be understood that the present invention is not limited to the exemplary embodiments described here.

[0061] It should be noted that the relative arrangement of components and steps, the numerical expressions and numerical values ​​set forth in these embodiments do not limit the scope of the present invention unless specifically stated otherwise.

[0062] Those skilled in the art can understand that the terms "first" and "second" in the embodiments of the present invention are only used to distinguish different steps, devices or modules, etc., and neither represent any specific technical meaning nor indicate the necessary logical order between them.

[0063] It should also be understood that, in the embodiments of the present invention, “plurality” may refer to two or more than two, and “at least one” may refer to one, two or more than two.

[0064] It should also be understood that any component, data or structure mentioned in the embodiments of the present invention can generally be understood as one or more, unless explicitly limited or otherwise indicated in the context.

[0065] In addition, the term "and / or" in the present invention is only a description of the association relationship of the associated objects, indicating that there can be three relationships. For example, A and / or B can represent: A exists alone, A and B exist at the same time, and B exists alone. In addition, the character " / " in the present invention generally indicates that the associated objects before and after are in an "or" relationship.

[0066] It should also be understood that the description of the various embodiments of the present invention focuses on the differences between the various embodiments, and the same or similar aspects thereof can be referenced to each other, and for the sake of brevity, they will not be described one by one.

[0067] At the same time, it should be understood that for the convenience of description, the sizes of the various parts shown in the drawings are not drawn according to the actual proportional relationship.

[0068] The following description of at least one exemplary embodiment is merely illustrative in nature and is in no way intended to limit the invention, its application, or uses.

[0069] Technologies, methods, and equipment known to ordinary technicians in the relevant art may not be discussed in detail, but where appropriate, the technologies, methods, and equipment should be considered part of the specification.

[0070] It should be noted that like reference numerals and letters refer to similar items in the following figures, and therefore, once an item is defined in one figure, it need not be further discussed in subsequent figures.

[0071] Embodiments of the present invention can be applied to electronic devices such as terminal devices, computer systems, servers, etc., which can operate with many other general or special computing system environments or configurations. Examples of well-known terminal devices, computing systems, environments and / or configurations suitable for use with electronic devices such as terminal devices, computer systems, servers, etc. include, but are not limited to: personal computer systems, server computer systems, thin clients, thick clients, handheld or laptop devices, microprocessor-based systems, set-top boxes, programmable consumer electronics, network personal computers, small computer systems, large computer systems, and distributed cloud computing technology environments including any of the above systems, etc.

[0072] Electronic devices such as terminal devices, computer systems, servers, etc. can be described in the general context of computer system executable instructions (such as program modules) executed by computer systems. Generally, program modules can include routines, programs, object programs, components, logic, data structures, etc., which perform specific tasks or implement specific abstract data types. Computer systems / servers can be implemented in a distributed cloud computing environment, where tasks are performed by remote processing devices linked through a communication network. In a distributed cloud computing environment, program modules can be located on local or remote computing system storage media including storage devices.

[0073] Exemplary Methods

[0074] Figure 1 1 is a flow chart of a method for predicting the installed capacity demand of a new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer provided by an exemplary embodiment of the present invention. This embodiment can be applied to electronic devices, such as Figure 1 As shown, the new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer installed capacity demand forecasting method 100 includes the following steps:

[0075] Step 101, determining the target year's renewable energy installed capacity planning of the power grid to be tested, and determining the target year's output curve of the renewable energy station under different renewable energy output composition scenarios according to the installed capacity planning;

[0076] Step 102, performing power analysis on the power grid to be tested according to the pre-built power balance analysis data model and the output curve, and determining the peak load regulation demand and new energy consumption demand of the power grid to be tested;

[0077] Step 103, performing power system safety and stability analysis according to the pre-built power system safety and stability simulation analysis data model, determining the new energy acceptance limit output of the power grid to be tested and the cumulative value of the new energy output adjustment under the stability constraint;

[0078] Step 104, according to the peak load regulation demand of the power grid, the demand for new energy consumption and the cumulative value of the new energy output adjustment, determine the predicted value of the installed capacity demand of the new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer under the multiple constraints of the power grid to be tested.

[0079] Specifically, the present invention proposes a method for predicting the installed capacity demand of electrolyzers for hydrogen production from new energy in provincial power grids that takes into account multiple requirements of stability, peak load regulation and consumption. Under the joint constraints of stable operation of the actual power grid, new energy consumption rate and power peak load regulation, this method determines the output limit of new energy acceptance of the provincial power grid through simulation analysis of the safety and stability of the large power grid, proposes the annual peak load regulation demand of the power grid and the new energy consumption demand through simulation analysis of the annual power and electricity balance production, and finally determines the scale of electrolyzer installation in combination with the regulation performance of new energy water electrolysis hydrogen production equipment. This method can provide a method for predicting the installed capacity demand of electrolyzers under the key constraints of a power system for improving the regulation capacity of a high-proportion new energy power system by utilizing the flexible and adjustable performance of new energy hydrogen production equipment, and can also provide a reference for the low-carbon development form of a future new power system for power system planning technicians. Reference Figure 2 As shown, the following steps are included:

[0080] Step 1: New energy installed capacity planning and output forecast;

[0081] Step 2: Power and electricity balance analysis;

[0082] Step 3: Power system security and stability analysis;

[0083] Step 4: Forecast of installed capacity demand for new energy hydrogen production electrolyzers

[0084] Furthermore, the step 1 comprises:

[0085] Step 1-1: Investigate the provincial power grid's new energy installed capacity planning in the target year, including: site selection for wind power and photovoltaic power stations, total installed capacity of power stations, single-unit capacity, planned grid connection points, wind farm wind resource assessment data, photovoltaic power station solar resource assessment data, etc.;

[0086] Step 1-2: Based on the survey data, different new energy output combination scenarios are formed according to high wind power output, low wind power output, zero wind power output and high photovoltaic output, low photovoltaic output, and zero photovoltaic output, and the annual 8760h output curve of new energy stations under different scenarios is predicted.

[0087] Furthermore, the step 2 comprises:

[0088] Step 2-1: In the provincial power grid power balance analysis data model, according to the target year new energy annual output curve determined in step 1-2, or the new energy output corrected in step 3-7, adjust the new energy output data in the power system power balance analysis under different scenarios;

[0089] Step 2-2: Combined with the power structure and load characteristics of the provincial power grid, taking into account the system reserve rate, coal-fired power obstruction rate, water supply in the target year, and the capacity and head of each reservoir, the power and electricity balance analysis software is used to carry out the power and electricity balance production simulation of the provincial power grid in the target year, and determine the power balance surplus and electricity balance surplus under multiple scenarios of the provincial power grid power output;

[0090] Step 2-3: Determine the power and electricity balance analysis result of step 2-2. If the system has a surplus of renewable energy power or electricity, proceed to step 2-4. If there is a shortage of power or electricity, proceed to step 2-5. Otherwise, proceed to step 2-6.

[0091] Step 2-4: Record the power surplus P of the provincial power grid under the power balance requirement B1_RES Or power surplus Q B1_RES , and calculate the new energy consumption rate μ according to formula (1), and then proceed to steps 2-6:

[0092] μ=Q 用电_RES / Q 装机_RES (1)

[0093] In the formula, Q 用电_RES and Q 装机_RES They represent the actual power generation and theoretical power generation of renewable energy respectively.

[0094] Step 2-5: Record the power deficit P of the provincial power grid under the power balance requirement B2_RES Or power shortage Q B2_RES , go to step 4;

[0095] Step 2-6: If the new energy consumption rate is not less than the specified target value, proceed to step 2-7; if the new energy consumption rate does not meet the consumption requirements, proceed to step 4;

[0096] Step 2-7: The output of new energy consumption meets the requirements, and the grid new energy consumption does not require new energy hydrogen production;

[0097] Furthermore, the step 3 comprises:

[0098] Step 3-1: In the data model for the safety and stability simulation analysis of the power system of the provincial power grid, according to the production simulation conclusion that meets the power and electricity balance requirements determined in step 2, establish or modify the data model for the safety and stability simulation analysis of the power system under different renewable energy output scenarios;

[0099] Step 3-2: Conduct safety and stability analysis of the provincial power grid target year based on power system simulation analysis software, including: reactive voltage, short-circuit current, static safety, static stability, transient stability, dynamic stability, voltage stability, and frequency stability analysis;

[0100] Step 3-3: Determine the safety and stability analysis results of step 3-2. If the power grid is unstable, analyze the cause of the instability. If the cause of the instability is the unreasonable proportion of renewable energy output, proceed to step 3-4. Otherwise, proceed to step 3-5. If the power grid is stable, proceed to step 3-6.

[0101] Step 3-4: Go to step 3-1 to adjust the proportion of renewable energy output in the power grid, and record the cumulative value of the output adjustment ΔP RES ;

[0102] Step 3-5: Correct the grid operation mode or adjust the simulation analysis model parameters of the components that cause instability in the grid, form a new simulation analysis data model and transfer to step 3-1;

[0103] Step 3-6: Record and output the new energy output value, new energy output ratio and the cumulative value ΔP of the new energy output adjustment that meet the requirements of safe and stable operation of the power grid RES ;

[0104] Step 3-7: If ΔP RES >0, go to step 2-1.

[0105] Furthermore, the step 4 comprises:

[0106] Step 4-1: According to the conclusion of the power balance analysis in step 2, if the grid has no power or power surplus or shortage, then the output electrolyzer demand P ET =0, if there is a surplus, go to step 4-2, if there is a deficit, go to step 4-3;

[0107] Step 4-2: The power surplus P output according to step 2-3 B1_RES Or power surplus Q B1_RES Refer to formula (2) and formula (3) to calculate the minimum value P of the electrolytic cell power demand under surplus conditions: ET1_Q and the maximum value P ET1_P ;

[0108] P ET1_Q =(μ0Q 装机_RES -Q B1_RES ) / T 氢 (2)

[0109] P ET1_P =P B1_RES (3)

[0110] In the formula, μ0 represents the new energy consumption target, T 氢 Indicates the annual operating hours of hydrogen production from new energy sources;

[0111] Step 4-3: According to the power shortage P output in step 2-4 B2_RESOr power shortage Q B2_RES Refer to formula (4) and formula (5) to calculate the minimum value P of the electrolyzer power demand for the power grid down-peak regulation under the condition of power shortage: ET2_Q and the maximum value P ET2_P ;

[0112] P ET2_Q =Q B2_RES / T 氢 (4)

[0113] P ET2_P =P B2_RES (5)

[0114] Step 4-3: Based on the output of the new energy safety and stability limit output and the cumulative value of the new energy output adjustment ΔP RES , refer to formula (6) to calculate the demand value P of the electrolyzer power for the new energy stability limit ET3 ;

[0115] P ET3 =ΔP RES (6)

[0116] Step 4-4: Compare the electrolytic cell power demand values ​​calculated in Step 4-1, Step 4-2 and Step 4-3, and calculate the electrolytic cell installed capacity demand forecast value P that meets the multiple constraints of consumption, peak load regulation and stability according to formula (7) and formula (8): ET The value range of is:

[0117] P ET ≥min(P ET1_Q ,P ET2_Q ,P ET3 ) (7)

[0118]

[0119] Where P H2 Indicates the adjustable capacity of the grid-connected water electrolysis hydrogen production device.

[0120] The technical solution provided by the present invention has the following excellent effects:

[0121] 1. Aiming at the problem that it is difficult to determine the installed capacity of electrolyzers when hydrogen production by water electrolysis is used to improve the regulation capacity of power systems and the absorption capacity of new energy, a feasible and easy-to-implement solution is proposed from the perspective of practical application to meet multiple constraints such as safe and stable operation of power systems, peak regulation needs, and absorption needs of new energy.

[0122] 2. The application of hydrogen energy in the power system is still mainly based on experimental demonstration. With the rapid development of the new energy hydrogen production industry, the depth of electricity-hydrogen coupling is gradually increasing, and the potential demand for electricity-hydrogen interaction is continuously released. According to the provincial power grid new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer installed capacity demand forecasting method that takes into account multiple requirements of stability, peak regulation and absorption, it is possible to carry out analysis on the application potential of hydrogen energy participating in power grid peak regulation and improving new energy absorption capacity. This can not only help macro-policy researchers in cross-domain collaborative planning of electricity and hydrogen energy, but also provide a reference for power system operators in studying new power system dispatching and operation strategies.

[0123] Exemplary Devices

[0124] Figure 3 Schematic diagram of the structure of a new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer installation demand forecasting device provided by an exemplary embodiment of the present invention. Figure 3 As shown, the device 300 includes:

[0125] The first determination module 310 is used to determine the new energy installed capacity planning of the target year of the power grid to be tested, and determine the output curve of the new energy station in the target year under different new energy output composition scenarios according to the installed capacity planning;

[0126] The second determination module 320 is used to perform power analysis on the power grid to be tested according to the pre-built power balance analysis data model and the output curve, and determine the peak load regulation demand and new energy consumption demand of the power grid to be tested;

[0127] The third determination module 330 is used to perform power system security and stability analysis according to the pre-built power system security and stability simulation analysis data model, and determine the new energy acceptance limit output of the power grid to be tested and the cumulative value of the new energy output adjustment under the stability constraint;

[0128] The fourth determination module 340 is used to determine the predicted value of the installed capacity demand of the new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer under multiple constraints of the power grid to be tested according to the peak-shaving demand of the power grid, the new energy consumption demand and the cumulative value of the new energy output adjustment.

[0129] Optionally, the new energy installed capacity planning includes: site selection for wind power and photovoltaic power stations, total installed capacity of power stations, capacity of single units, planned grid connection points, wind resource assessment data for wind farms, and solar energy resource assessment data for photovoltaic power stations.

[0130] Optionally, the output curve of the target year of the new energy station under different new energy output composition scenarios is determined according to the installed capacity planning, including:

[0131] According to the installed capacity planning, different new energy output combination scenarios are formed according to high wind power output, low wind power output, zero wind power output and high photovoltaic output, low photovoltaic output, and zero photovoltaic output;

[0132] Predict the output curve of new energy stations for 8760 hours throughout the year under different new energy output combination scenarios.

[0133] Optionally, the power grid to be tested is analyzed for power and electricity according to the pre-built power and electricity balance analysis data model and the output curve to determine the peak load regulation demand and new energy consumption demand of the power grid to be tested, including:

[0134] Step 1: Input the output curve into the power balance analysis data model to adjust the new energy output data in the power balance analysis of the power system under different scenarios;

[0135] Step 2: Combined with the power supply structure and load characteristics of the power grid to be tested, taking into account the system reserve rate, coal-fired power obstruction rate, water supply in the target year, and the capacity and water head of each reservoir, the target year power and electricity balance production simulation of the power grid to be tested is carried out to determine the power and electricity balance analysis results under multiple scenarios of the power supply output of the power grid to be tested, where the power and electricity balance analysis results include: power balance surplus and electricity balance surplus;

[0136] Step 3: Determine the results of the power balance analysis. If the system has a surplus of new energy power or power, record the power surplus P of the power grid to be tested under the power balance requirement. B1_RES and power surplus Q B1_RES 、Power shortage P B2_RES And power shortage Q B2_RES , and output the peak load demand of power grid;

[0137] Step 4: Calculate the new energy consumption rate μ. When the new energy consumption rate is less than the specified target value, output the new energy consumption demand. The calculation formula of the new energy consumption rate μ is:

[0138] μ=Q 用电_RES / Q 装机_RES

[0139] In the formula, Q 用电_RES and Q 装机_RES They represent the actual power generation and theoretical power generation of renewable energy respectively.

[0140] Optionally, a power system safety and stability analysis is performed according to a pre-built power system safety and stability simulation analysis data model to determine the new energy acceptance limit output of the power grid to be tested and the cumulative value of the new energy output adjustment under the stability constraint, including:

[0141] Step 1: In the power system safety and stability simulation analysis data model of the power grid to be tested, according to the power and electricity balance situation, establish or modify the power system safety and stability simulation analysis data model under different renewable energy output scenarios;

[0142] Step 2: Based on the revised power system simulation analysis data model, conduct safety and stability analysis of the target year of the power grid to be tested, and determine the safety and stability analysis results, where the safety and stability analysis includes: reactive voltage, short-circuit current, static safety, static stability, transient stability, dynamic stability, voltage stability, and frequency stability analysis;

[0143] Step 3: Determine the safety and stability analysis results. If the power grid to be tested is unstable, determine whether the cause of the instability of the power grid to be tested is the unreasonable proportion of renewable energy output. If so, proceed to step 4; otherwise, proceed to step 5. If the power grid is stable, proceed to step 6.

[0144] Step 4: Go to step 1 to adjust the proportion of renewable energy output in the power grid, and record the cumulative value of renewable energy output adjustment ΔP RES ;

[0145] Step 5: Correct the grid operation mode or adjust the simulation analysis model parameters of the components that cause instability in the grid to form a new simulation analysis data model and proceed to step 1;

[0146] Step 6: Record and output the new energy output value, new energy output ratio and the cumulative value ΔP of the new energy output adjustment that meet the requirements of safe and stable operation of the power grid RES ;

[0147] Step 7: If ΔP RES >0, redetermine the power balance.

[0148] Optionally, according to the peak load demand of the power grid, the demand for new energy consumption and the cumulative value of the new energy output adjustment, the predicted value of the installed capacity demand of the new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer under the multiple constraints of the power grid to be tested is determined, including:

[0149] Step 1: In the case of power and electricity balance, if the grid under test has no power or electricity surplus or shortage, then the output electrolyzer demand P ET =0, if there is a surplus, go to step 2, if there is a deficit, go to step 3;

[0150] Step 2: Based on the power surplus P B1_RES Or power surplus Q B1_RES Calculate the minimum value P of the electrolyzer power demand under surplus conditions ET1_Q and the maximum value P ET1_P , and its calculation formula is:

[0151] P ET1_Q =(μ0Q 装机_RES -Q B1_RES ) / T 氢

[0152] P ET1_P =P B1_RES

[0153] In the formula, μ0 represents the new energy consumption target, T 氢 Indicates the annual operating hours of hydrogen production from new energy sources;

[0154] Step 3: According to the power shortage P B2_RES Or power shortage Q B2_RES Calculate the minimum value P of the electrolyzer power demand for the power grid down-peak regulation under the condition of power shortage ET2_Q and the maximum value P ET2_P , and its calculation formula is:

[0155] P ET2_Q =Q B2_RES / T 氢

[0156] P ET2_P =P B2_RES

[0157] Step 4: According to the safety and stability limit output of new energy and the cumulative value of new energy output adjustment ΔP RES , calculate the power demand value P of the electrolyzer for the new energy stability limit ET3 , and its calculation formula is:

[0158] P ET3 =ΔP RES

[0159] Step 5: Based on the electrolytic cell power demand values ​​calculated in Steps 1, 2, and 3, calculate the electrolytic cell installed capacity demand forecast value P that meets the multiple constraints of consumption, peak load regulation, and stability. ET The value range of is calculated as follows:

[0160] P ET ≥min(P ET1_Q ,P ET2_Q ,P ET3 )

[0161]

[0162] Where P H2 Indicates the adjustable capacity of the grid-connected water electrolysis hydrogen production device;

[0163] Step 6: Get the electrolytic cell power demand value P ET3 and the predicted value of electrolytic cell installed capacity demand P ET The maximum value of is used as the forecast value of installed capacity demand for new energy hydrogen production electrolyzers.

[0164] Exemplary Electronic Devices

[0165] Figure 4 This is a structure of an electronic device provided by an exemplary embodiment of the present invention. Figure 4 As shown, the electronic device 40 includes one or more processors 41 and a memory 42 .

[0166] The processor 41 may be a central processing unit (CPU) or other forms of processing units having data processing capabilities and / or instruction execution capabilities, and may control other components in the electronic device to perform desired functions.

[0167] The memory 42 may include one or more computer program products, which may include various forms of computer-readable storage media, such as volatile memory and / or non-volatile memory. The volatile memory may include, for example, random access memory (RAM) and / or cache memory (cache), etc. The non-volatile memory may include, for example, read-only memory (ROM), hard disk, flash memory, etc. One or more computer program instructions may be stored on the computer-readable storage medium, and the processor 41 may run the program instructions to implement the methods of the software programs of the various embodiments of the present invention described above and / or other desired functions. In one example, the electronic device may also include: an input device 43 and an output device 44, which are interconnected via a bus system and / or other forms of connection mechanisms (not shown).

[0168] In addition, the input device 43 may also include, for example, a keyboard, a mouse, etc.

[0169] The output device 44 can output various information to the outside, and can include, for example, a display, a speaker, a printer, a communication network and a remote output device connected thereto.

[0170] Of course, to simplify, Figure 4 Only some of the components related to the present invention in the electronic device are shown, and components such as a bus, an input / output interface, etc. are omitted. In addition, the electronic device may further include any other appropriate components according to specific application conditions.

[0171] Exemplary computer program products and computer-readable storage media

[0172] In addition to the above-mentioned methods and devices, an embodiment of the present invention may also be a computer program product, which includes computer program instructions, which, when executed by a processor, enable the processor to execute the steps of the method according to various embodiments of the present invention described in the above-mentioned "Exemplary Method" section of this specification.

[0173] The computer program product may be written in any combination of one or more programming languages ​​to write program code for performing the operations of the embodiments of the present invention, including object-oriented programming languages ​​such as Java, C++, etc., and conventional procedural programming languages ​​such as "C" or similar programming languages. The program code may be executed entirely on the user computing device, partially on the user device, as a separate software package, partially on the user computing device and partially on a remote computing device, or entirely on a remote computing device or server.

[0174] In addition, an embodiment of the present invention may also be a computer-readable storage medium having computer program instructions stored thereon, which, when executed by a processor, enable the processor to execute the steps of the method according to various embodiments of the present invention described in the above “Exemplary Method” section of this specification.

[0175] The computer readable storage medium can adopt any combination of one or more readable media. The readable medium can be a readable signal medium or a readable storage medium. The readable storage medium can include, for example, but is not limited to, a system, system or device of electricity, magnetism, light, electromagnetic, infrared, or semiconductor, or any combination of the above. More specific examples (non-exhaustive list) of readable storage media include: an electrical connection with one or more wires, a portable disk, a hard disk, a random access memory (RAM), a read-only memory (ROM), an erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM or flash memory), an optical fiber, a portable compact disk read-only memory (CD-ROM), an optical storage device, a magnetic storage device, or any suitable combination of the above.

[0176] The basic principle of the present invention is described above in conjunction with specific embodiments. However, it should be pointed out that the advantages, strengths, effects, etc. mentioned in the present invention are only examples and not limitations, and it cannot be considered that these advantages, strengths, effects, etc. must be possessed by each embodiment of the present invention. In addition, the specific details disclosed above are only for the purpose of illustration and facilitation of understanding, rather than limitation, and the above details do not limit the present invention to being implemented by adopting the above specific details.

[0177] Each embodiment in this specification is described in a progressive manner, and each embodiment focuses on the differences from other embodiments. The same or similar parts between the embodiments can be referred to each other. For the system embodiment, since it basically corresponds to the method embodiment, the description is relatively simple, and the relevant parts can be referred to the partial description of the method embodiment.

[0178] The block diagrams of the devices, systems, equipment, and systems involved in the present invention are only illustrative examples and are not intended to require or imply that they must be connected, arranged, and configured in the manner shown in the block diagram. As will be appreciated by those skilled in the art, these devices, systems, equipment, and systems can be connected, arranged, and configured in any manner. Words such as "including", "comprising", "having", etc. are open words, referring to "including but not limited to", and can be used interchangeably with them. The words "or" and "and" used here refer to the words "and / or" and can be used interchangeably with them, unless the context clearly indicates otherwise. The word "such as" used here refers to the phrase "such as but not limited to", and can be used interchangeably with it.

[0179] The method and system of the present invention may be implemented in many ways. For example, the method and system of the present invention may be implemented by software, hardware, firmware or any combination of software, hardware, firmware. The above order of steps for the method is only for illustration, and the steps of the method of the present invention are not limited to the order specifically described above, unless otherwise specifically stated. In addition, in some embodiments, the present invention may also be implemented as a program recorded in a recording medium, which includes machine-readable instructions for implementing the method according to the present invention. Thus, the present invention also covers a recording medium storing a program for executing the method according to the present invention.

[0180] It should also be noted that in the system, device and method of the present invention, each component or each step can be decomposed and / or recombined. These decompositions and / or recombinations should be regarded as equivalent schemes of the present invention. The above description of the disclosed aspects is provided to enable any technician in the field to make or use the present invention. Various modifications to these aspects are very obvious to those skilled in the art, and the general principles defined here can be applied to other aspects without departing from the scope of the present invention. Therefore, the present invention is not intended to be limited to the aspects shown here, but in accordance with the widest range consistent with the principles and novel features disclosed here.

[0181] The above description has been given for the purpose of illustration and description. In addition, this description is not intended to limit the embodiments of the present invention to the forms disclosed herein. Although a number of example aspects and embodiments have been discussed above, those skilled in the art will recognize certain variations, modifications, changes, additions and sub-combinations thereof.

Claims

1. A method for predicting the installed capacity demand of new energy hydrogen production electrolyzers, characterized in that: include: Determine the target year's renewable energy installed capacity plan for the power grid to be tested, and determine the target year's output curves of renewable energy stations under different renewable energy output composition scenarios based on the installed capacity plan; Performing power analysis on the power grid to be tested based on the pre-built power balance analysis data model and the output curve to determine the peak load demand and new energy consumption demand of the power grid to be tested; Conduct power system safety and stability analysis based on the pre-built power system safety and stability simulation analysis data model, determine the new energy acceptance limit output of the power grid to be tested and the cumulative value of the new energy output adjustment under stability constraints; According to the peak-shaving demand of the power grid, the new energy consumption demand and the cumulative value of the new energy output adjustment, the predicted value of the installed capacity demand of the new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer under the multiple constraints of the power grid to be tested is determined.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The new energy installed capacity planning includes: site selection for wind power and photovoltaic power stations, total installed capacity of power stations, single-unit capacity, planned grid connection points, wind farm wind resource assessment data, and photovoltaic power station solar energy resource assessment data.

3. The method according to claim 1 or 2, characterized in that: According to the installed capacity planning, the output curve of the new energy station in the target year under different new energy output composition scenarios is determined, including: According to the installed capacity planning, different new energy output combination scenarios are formed according to high wind power output, low wind power output, zero wind power output and high photovoltaic output, low photovoltaic output, and zero photovoltaic output; Predict the output curve of the new energy station for 8760 hours throughout the year under different new energy output combination scenarios.

4. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that: Performing power analysis on the power grid to be tested according to the pre-built power and quantity balance analysis data model and the output curve to determine the peak load regulation demand and new energy consumption demand of the power grid to be tested, including: Step 1: inputting the output curve into the power balance analysis data model to adjust the new energy output data in the power balance analysis of the power system under different scenarios; Step 2: Combined with the power supply structure and load characteristics of the power grid to be tested, taking into account the system reserve rate, coal-fired power obstruction rate, water supply in the target year, and the capacity and head of each reservoir, the target year power and electricity balance production simulation of the power grid to be tested is carried out to determine the power and electricity balance analysis results under multiple scenarios of the power supply output of the power grid to be tested, wherein the power and electricity balance analysis results include: power balance surplus and electricity balance surplus; Step 3: Determine the power balance analysis result. If the system has a surplus of new energy power or power, record the power surplus P of the power grid to be tested under the power balance requirement. B1_RES and power surplus Q B1_RES 、Power shortage P B2_RES And power shortage Q B2_RES , and output the power grid peak load demand; Step 4: Calculate the new energy consumption rate μ, and when the new energy consumption rate is less than the specified target value, output the new energy consumption demand, wherein the calculation formula of the new energy consumption rate μ is: μ=Q 用电_RES / Q 装机_RES In the formula, Q 用电_RES and Q 装机_RES They represent the actual power generation and theoretical power generation of renewable energy respectively.

5. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that According to the pre-built power system security and stability simulation analysis data model, the power system security and stability analysis is carried out to determine the new energy acceptance limit output of the power grid to be tested and the cumulative value of the new energy output adjustment under stability constraints, including: Step 1: in the safety and stability simulation analysis data model of the power grid to be tested, according to the power balance situation, establish or modify the data model of the safety and stability simulation analysis of the power system under different renewable energy output scenarios; Step 2: Based on the revised power system simulation analysis data model, carry out the safety and stability analysis of the target year of the power grid to be tested, and determine the safety and stability analysis results, wherein the safety and stability analysis includes: reactive voltage, short-circuit current, static safety, static stability, transient stability, dynamic stability, voltage stability, and frequency stability analysis; Step 3: Determine the safety and stability analysis results. If the power grid to be tested is unstable, determine whether the cause of the instability of the power grid to be tested is an unreasonable proportion of renewable energy output. If so, proceed to step 4; otherwise, proceed to step 5. If the power grid is stable, proceed to step 6. Step 4: Go to step 1 to adjust the proportion of renewable energy output in the power grid, and record the cumulative value of renewable energy output adjustment ΔP RES ; Step 5: Correct the grid operation mode or adjust the simulation analysis model parameters of the components that cause instability in the grid to form a new simulation analysis data model and proceed to step 1; Step 6: Record and output the new energy output value, new energy output ratio and the cumulative value ΔP of the new energy output adjustment that meet the requirements of safe and stable operation of the power grid RES ; Step 7: If ΔP RES >0, redetermine the power balance.

6. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that According to the peak load demand of the power grid, the new energy consumption demand and the cumulative value of the new energy output adjustment, the predicted value of the installed capacity demand of the new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer under the multiple constraints of the power grid to be tested is determined, including: Step 1: In the power and electricity balance situation, if the power grid to be tested has no power or electricity surplus or shortage, then the electrolyzer demand P is output. ET =0, if there is a surplus, go to step 2, if there is a deficit, go to step 3; Step 2: Based on the power surplus P B1_RES Or the power surplus Q B1_RES Calculate the minimum value P of the electrolyzer power demand under surplus conditions ET1_Q and the maximum value P ET1_P , and its calculation formula is: P ET1_Q =(μ0Q 装机_RES -Q B1_RES ) / T 氢 P ET1_P =P B1_RES In the formula, μ0 represents the new energy consumption target, T 氢 Indicates the annual operating hours of hydrogen production from new energy sources; Step 3: According to the power shortage P B2_RES Or the power shortage Q B2_RES Calculate the minimum value P of the electrolyzer power demand for the power grid down-peak regulation under the condition of power shortage ET2_Q and the maximum value P ET2_P , and its calculation formula is: P ET2_Q =Q B2_RES / T 氢 P ET2_P =P B2_RES Step 4: According to the safety and stability limit output of the new energy and the cumulative value ΔP of the new energy output adjustment RES , calculate the power demand value P of the electrolyzer for the new energy stability limit ET3 , and its calculation formula is: P ET3 =ΔP RES Step 5: Based on the electrolytic cell power demand values ​​calculated in Steps 1, 2, and 3, calculate the electrolytic cell installed capacity demand forecast value P that meets the multiple constraints of consumption, peak load regulation, and stability. ET The value range of is calculated as follows: P ET ≥min(P ET1_Q ,P ET2_Q ,P ET3 ) Where P H2 Indicates the adjustable capacity of the grid-connected water electrolysis hydrogen production device; Step 6: Take the electrolytic cell power demand value P ET3 and the electrolytic cell installed capacity demand forecast value P ET The maximum value of is used as the predicted value of installed capacity demand of the new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer.

7. A new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer installed capacity demand forecasting device, characterized in that: include: The first determination module is used to determine the new energy installed capacity planning of the target year of the power grid to be tested, and determine the output curve of the new energy station in the target year under different new energy output composition scenarios according to the installed capacity planning; The second determination module is used to perform power analysis on the power grid to be tested according to the pre-built power and electricity balance analysis data model and the output curve, and determine the peak load regulation demand and new energy consumption demand of the power grid to be tested; The third determination module is used to perform power system safety and stability analysis based on a pre-built power system safety and stability simulation analysis data model, and determine the new energy acceptance limit output of the power grid to be tested and the cumulative value of the new energy output adjustment under stability constraints; The fourth determination module is used to determine the predicted value of the installed capacity demand of the new energy hydrogen production electrolyzer under the multiple constraints of the power grid to be tested according to the peak-shaving demand of the power grid, the new energy consumption demand and the cumulative value of the new energy output adjustment.

8. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that: The storage medium stores a computer program, and the computer program is used to execute the method according to any one of claims 1 to 6.

9. An electronic device, characterized in that: The electronic device comprises: processor; a memory for storing instructions executable by the processor; The processor is used to read the executable instructions from the memory and execute the instructions to implement the method described in any one of claims 1 to 6.

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