Risk open quota management method and system based on disposal effect, and storage medium

Abstract

The invention provides a risk open quota management method and system based on a disposal effect, and a storage medium, and belongs to the technical field of risk early warning. Comprising the following steps: S1, collecting transaction data of non-cash assets of market participants in a certain period of time; s2, on the basis of the disposal effect characteristics of market participants, constructing capital benefit outburst CGO, and quantifying the risk openness of non-cash assets; s3, predicting the limit of the position risk opening of the current market participant according to the market change and the risk preference index of the market participant, and feeding back the limit to the market participant; and S4, performing real-time evaluation according to the position risk open quota of the market participants and the change condition of the investment scale, and feeding back a re-evaluation result to the market participants again. In the asset safety range, market participants are suggested to maintain or change the asset holding scale, and the flexibility and timeliness of risk management are improved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of risk warning technology, and in particular to a risk exposure limit management method, system and storage medium based on disposal effect. Background Art

[0002] Risk exposure is an important risk indicator for the financial assets held. It is necessary to set a limit for risk exposure. When it approaches or exceeds the limit, the financial assets need to be disposed of in a timely manner to avoid further expansion of risk exposure and reduce the risk of investors suffering economic losses. The traditional risk exposure limit management system has problems such as inflexible indicator parameters and inability to adjust in time according to market conditions and company asset conditions; low timeliness of risk exposure calculation and early warning; lack of a closed-loop management mechanism for risk disposal, and inability to make recommendations in advance and feedback corrections afterwards. In order to accurately quantify risk exposure, it is necessary to assess investors' risk preferences, which is conducive to making targeted asset disposal decisions for reference by different investors.

[0003] Therefore, it is very necessary to propose a risk exposure limit management method and system based on the disposal effect according to the preferences of different investors, so as to make reasonable suggestions in time according to the risk limits and risk preferences of market participants, and improve the real-time and effectiveness of risk management. Summary of the invention

[0004] In view of this, the present invention proposes a risk exposure limit management method, system and storage medium based on disposal effect, which estimates the asset value and conducts risk assessment according to the purchase price and real-time price of non-cash assets, and provides reasonable suggestions to market participants in a timely manner.

[0005] The present invention provides a risk exposure limit management method based on disposal effect, comprising the following steps:

[0006] S1: Collect transaction data of non-cash assets of market participants over a certain period of time;

[0007] S2: Based on the characteristics of the disposition effect of market participants, we construct the capital gains outstanding measure CGO to quantify the risk exposure of non-cash assets;

[0008] S3: Based on market changes and the risk preference index of market participants, the current risk exposure limit of market participants is predicted and fed back to market participants;

[0009] S4: Conduct real-time assessment based on changes in market participants’ position risk exposure limits and investment size, and provide feedback to market participants on the results of the reassessment.

[0010] On the basis of the above technical solution, preferably, the content of step S1 is to collect the reference price of the average holding cost of market participants as the transaction data of non-cash assets.

[0011] Preferably, the reference price of the average holding cost of the market participants is calculated using the following formula:

[0012] Where k is the normalized weight coefficient,

[0013] V t-n and V t-n+s represents the turnover rate at time tn and time t-n+s, respectively, t is the reference time, s=1, 2, ..., n-1; P t-n Represents the average transaction price of non-cash assets at time tn; Represents the weight of the turnover rate at different times, Π is a multiplication operation; the sum of the weight coefficients of the turnover rate of different average prices at different times is 1; RP t The reference price representing the average holding cost at reference time t.

[0014] Further preferably, the content of step S2 is to calculate the chip distribution of non-cash assets using the cost-average price turnover rate method, and then based on the chip distribution, combined with the reference price RP of the average holding cost of market participants t and volatility coefficient, calculate the capital gains outstanding amount CG0 at time t t : where η 1 is the first confidence level, η 2 is the second confidence level, η 1 >η 2 ; VaR i is the risk value of the i-th non-cash asset, N is the number of non-cash assets; VaR i =C i ×β i ×Z i , C i is the investment amount of the i-th non-cash asset, C i =M i ×RP t , M i is the holding amount of the i-th non-cash asset of the market participant; Z i is the critical value of the standard normal distribution of the i-th non-cash asset, β i is the volatility coefficient of the i-th non-cash asset, β i =1 indicates that the volatility of current non-cash assets is consistent with the volatility of the market; i >1 indicates that the volatility of current non-cash assets is greater than the volatility of the market; 0 < βi When βi is less than 1, it means that the volatility of current non-cash assets is less than the volatility of the market; ＜ 0 indicates that the volatility of current non-cash assets is negatively correlated with the volatility of the market. Confidence level is a statistical concept. Using confidence level to measure risk indicators can help make more informed decisions in uncertainty.

[0015] Further preferably, the volatility coefficient β of the i-th non-cash asset is i Calculated using the following formula: i =γβ i1 +(1-γ)β i2 , β i1 is the first volatility risk indicator of the i-th non-cash asset, β i2 is the second volatility risk indicator of the i-th non-cash asset, γ is the probability that the market return is not greater than the threshold K; β il and β i2 The following conditions are met; Where R i is the expected rate of return of the i-th non-cash asset; α is the intercept term; R m is the market rate of return; is the indicator function when the market rate of return is not greater than the threshold K; is the indicator function when the market rate of return is not greater than the threshold K; e i is the error term; the threshold K is the historical lowest rate of return.

[0016] Further preferably, the prediction of the current market participant's position risk exposure limit in step S3 is based on the following formula to calculate the market participant's position risk exposure limit L: i : Where f is the maximum risk tolerance, let f = VaR i max , VaR i max is the maximum value of the risk of the i-th non-cash asset; risk i is the risk preference index of market participants, A is the investment cycle score, B is the risk preference score, C is the market volatility tolerance score, W a , W b , W c are the weights of parameters A, B, and C, respectively, and W a , W b , W c ∈(0,1).

[0017] More preferably, the feedback given to the market participants in step S3 is the outstanding capital gain amount CG0 at time t.t Not less than the position risk exposure limit L i , determine whether the following conditions are met:

[0018] 1) If the current price of non-cash assets is greater than the reference price RP of the average holding cost of market participants t , indicating that the non-cash assets currently held by market participants are in a profitable state, and the profit state and profit level are fed back to market participants; if the investment cycle score A of the market participant is not less than 1 or the market volatility tolerance score C is not less than 1, it is recommended that the market participant continue to hold the current non-cash assets; if the investment cycle score A of the market participant is not less than 1 or the market volatility tolerance score C is less than 1, it is recommended that investors take profits;

[0019] 2) If the current price of non-cash assets is equal to the reference price RP of the average holding cost of market participants t If the investment cycle score A of the market participant is not less than 1 or the market volatility tolerance score C is not less than 1, the market participant is advised to pay attention to the price of the current non-cash assets, reduce the scale of the current non-cash assets or maintain the current scale of non-cash assets unchanged; if the investment cycle score A of the market participant is not less than 1 or the market volatility tolerance score C is less than 1, the market participant is advised to sell the current non-cash assets;

[0020] 3) If the current price of non-cash assets is lower than the reference price RP of the average holding cost of market participants t Regardless of the market participant's investment cycle score of A or market volatility tolerance score of C, market participants are advised to sell their current non-cash assets.

[0021] Further preferably, the first confidence level η 1 ≥95%,η 2 The second confidence level is ≥ 90%.

[0022] On the other hand, the present invention provides a risk exposure limit management system based on disposal effect, which is used to implement the above method, including:

[0023] Information collection unit, used to collect the reference price RP of the average holding cost of market participants t ;

[0024] Capital gains outstanding calculation unit, used to combine the reference price RP of the average holding cost of market participants t and volatility coefficient, calculate the capital gains outstanding amount CG0 at time t t ;

[0025] The limit forecast unit is used to set the limit L on the current market participants’ position risk exposure. i Make predictions;

[0026] The information feedback unit uses the reference price RP based on the price of non-cash assets and the average holding cost of market participants. t , providing current market participants with adjustment recommendations for non-cash assets.

[0027] In a third aspect, the present invention further provides a storage medium for storing computer executable instructions, which, when executed on a computer, implement the above-mentioned risk exposure limit management method based on disposal effects.

[0028] The risk exposure limit management method, system and storage medium based on disposal effect provided by the present invention have the following beneficial effects compared with the prior art:

[0029] (1) The present invention provides a risk exposure management strategy based on the disposal effect, which reliably evaluates the asset status of market participants, obtains the market risk of non-cash assets held, predicts the scale of assets with a large fluctuation range, provides corresponding prediction results and recommendations, and recommends market participants to maintain or change the scale of asset holdings within the scope of asset safety, thereby improving the flexibility and timeliness of risk management;

[0030] (2) The present invention provides a risk exposure limit management system. When the monitored capital gains reach the limit of the position risk exposure, disposal suggestions are made in a timely manner based on market conditions and investors' behavioral preference scores, which can not only improve response speed but also reduce potential financial losses. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0031] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative work.

[0032] Figure 1 A workflow diagram of a risk exposure limit management method, system and storage medium based on disposal effect of the present invention;

[0033] Figure 2 A schematic diagram of chip distribution for a risk exposure limit management method, system and storage medium based on disposal effect of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0034] The following will be combined with the embodiments of the present invention to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0035] The disposition effect refers to the tendency of market participants to hold on to losing assets for a long time and sell profitable assets too quickly. This is not an ideal risk avoidance model, but rather brings greater risks to market participants. Many analysis methods only provide post-event analysis, but lack pre-event warning and prompt functions.

[0036] In view of this, if Figure 1 As shown, on the one hand, the present invention provides a risk exposure limit management method based on disposal effect, comprising the following steps:

[0037] S1: Collect transaction data of non-cash assets of market participants over a certain period of time.

[0038] The content of step S1 is to collect the reference price of the average holding cost of market participants as the transaction data of non-cash assets.

[0039] The reference price RP of the average holding cost of market participants t , is calculated using the following formula:

[0040] Where k is the normalized weight coefficient, V t-n and V t-n+s represents the turnover rate at time tn and time t-n+s, respectively, t is the reference time, s=1, 2, ..., n-1; P t-n Represents the average transaction price of non-cash assets at time tn; Represents the weight of the turnover rate at different times, ∏ is a multiplication operation; the sum of the weight coefficients of the turnover rate of different average prices at different times is 1; RP t The reference price represents the average holding cost at reference time t, which represents the overall investment cost of market participants in non-cash assets. Based on this reference price, it can be used as a basis for subsequent evaluation of profit or loss status and decision-making. The calculation in the above formula is based on the turnover-weighted average transaction price of the past 260 weeks.

[0041] As a simplification, assuming that market participants follow the first-in, first-out principle, market participants who buy non-cash assets first will sell them earlier than those who buy them later, so it is more reasonable to use the most recent purchase price as the reference price. The time period can be further shortened from the most recent 260 weeks to nearly 100 trading days, which can simplify the calculation. The reference price RP of the average holding cost of market participants t The corresponding formula becomes:

[0042] S2: Based on the disposition effect characteristics of market participants, construct the capital gains outstanding measure CGO to quantify the risk exposure of non-cash assets.

[0043] The specific content of step S2 is: use the cost-average price turnover rate method to calculate the chip distribution of non-cash assets, and then based on the chip distribution, combine the reference price RP of the average holding cost of market participants t and volatility coefficient, calculate the capital gains outstanding amount CG0 at time t t The calculation of the chip distribution of non-cash assets at time t is to push forward 100 trading days, multiply the daily turnover rate by the non-turnover rate of the following days, and calculate the ratio of assets on that day that have not been traded at time t. The following table shows the calculation process of the chip distribution.

[0044]

[0045]

[0046] For example, for a certain non-cash asset, the average transaction price at time t-1 is 25 yuan, and the turnover rate is 15%, which means that 15% of the assets have been traded, and the remaining 85% of the non-cash assets have not been traded, and the holding cost price of 15% of the funds is 25 yuan; the average transaction price at time t-2 is 27 yuan, and the turnover rate is 3%, then 3% of the funds at time t-2 have a cost price of 27 yuan, and the part that continues to time t is 3%*(1-15%)=2.5%, and so on every day. The closer the average transaction price is to the current moment, the higher the turnover rate weight. Finally, the weights are normalized, and the weighted average of the average transaction price is taken to obtain 25.82, which is the average cost price of most market participants. Figure 2 It shows a schematic diagram of chip distribution, with the horizontal axis representing the turnover rate and the vertical axis representing the transaction price range.

[0047] The capital gains outstanding amount at time t is CG0 t The calculation is done using the following formula: where η 1 is the first confidence level, η 2 is the second confidence level, η 1 >η 2 ; VaRi is the risk value of the i-th non-cash asset, N is the number of non-cash assets; VaR i =C i ×β i ×Z i , C i is the investment amount of the i-th non-cash asset, C i =M i ×RP t , M i is the holding amount of the i-th non-cash asset of the market participant; Z i is the critical value of the standard normal distribution of the i-th non-cash asset, β i is the volatility coefficient of the i-th non-cash asset, β i =1 indicates that the volatility of current non-cash assets is consistent with the volatility of the market; i >1 indicates that the volatility of current non-cash assets is greater than the volatility of the market; 0 < β i When β is less than 1, it means that the volatility of current non-cash assets is less than the volatility of the market; i When <0, it means that the volatility of current non-cash assets is negatively correlated with the volatility of the market. t The larger it is, the lower the average cost of most market participants is, and most market participants are likely to make a profit; on the contrary, the capital gain is outstanding. t The smaller the value, the higher the average cost of most market participants, and most market participants may suffer losses. 1 ≥95%,η 2 The second confidence level is ≥ 90%.

[0048] Among them, the volatility coefficient of the i-th non-cash asset is β i Calculated using the following formula: i =γβ i1 +(1-γ)β i2 , β i1 is the first volatility risk indicator of the i-th non-cash asset, β i2 is the second volatility risk indicator of the i-th non-cash asset, γ is the probability that the market return is not greater than the threshold K; β i1 and β i2 The following conditions are met; Where R i is the expected rate of return of the i-th non-cash asset; α is the intercept term; R m is the market rate of return; is the indicator function when the market rate of return is not greater than the threshold K; is the indicator function when the market rate of return is not greater than the threshold K; e iis the error term. The indicator function takes the value of 1 only when the corresponding condition is met, otherwise it takes the value of 0.

[0049] In this embodiment, the threshold K is the lowest historical rate of return.

[0050] S3: Based on market changes and the risk preference index of market participants, the current risk exposure limit of market participants is predicted and fed back to market participants.

[0051] The prediction of the current market participant's position risk exposure limit in step S3 is based on the following formula to calculate the market participant's position risk exposure limit L: i : Where f is the maximum risk tolerance, let f = VaR i max , VaR i max is the maximum value of the risk of the i-th non-cash asset; risk i is the risk preference index of market participants, A is the investment cycle score, B is the risk preference score, C is the market volatility tolerance score, W a , W b , W c are the weights of parameters A, B, and C, respectively, and W a , W b , W c ∈(0,1).

[0052] The investment cycle score determines whether a market participant is a long-term investor, a medium-term investor, or a short-term investor, which corresponds to market participants who hold positions for more than one year, between one month and one year, and less than one month, respectively.

[0053] The assets and liabilities in the risk appetite score are derived from the balance sheet items.

[0054] The market volatility tolerance score determines whether market participants are willing to accept or averse to high risk.

[0055] The feedback given to market participants in step S3 is the capital gain outstanding amount CG0 at time t t Not less than the position risk exposure limit L i , determine whether the following conditions are met:

[0056] 1) If the current price of non-cash assets is greater than the reference price RP of the average holding cost of market participants t, indicating that the non-cash assets currently held by market participants are in a profitable state, and the profit state and profit level are fed back to market participants; if the investment cycle score A of the market participant is not less than 1 or the market volatility tolerance score C is not less than 1, it is recommended that the market participant continue to hold the current non-cash assets; if the investment cycle score A of the market participant is not less than 1 or the market volatility tolerance score C is less than 1, it is recommended that investors take profits;

[0057] 2) If the current price of non-cash assets is equal to the reference price RP of the average holding cost of market participants t If the investment cycle score A of the market participant is not less than 1 or the market volatility tolerance score C is not less than 1, the market participant is advised to pay attention to the price of the current non-cash assets, reduce the scale of the current non-cash assets or maintain the current scale of non-cash assets unchanged; if the investment cycle score A of the market participant is not less than 1 or the market volatility tolerance score C is less than 1, the market participant is advised to sell the current non-cash assets;

[0058] 3) If the current price of non-cash assets is lower than the reference price RP of the average holding cost of market participants t Regardless of the market participant's investment cycle score of A or market volatility tolerance score of C, market participants are advised to sell their current non-cash assets.

[0059] S4: Conduct real-time assessment based on changes in market participants’ position risk exposure limits and investment size, and provide feedback to market participants on the results of the reassessment.

[0060] When the market participants accept the suggestions and make corresponding adjustments, the above steps S1-S3 are repeated to re-evaluate the capital gains outstanding amount CG0 of the market participants. t and the limit of position risk exposure L i , re-execute the corresponding recommended process. Of course, the reference price RP of the average position cost of market participants t It is also constantly changing, and the capital gains of market participants need to be re-evaluated at regular intervals. t and the limit of position risk exposure L i .

[0061] On the other hand, the present invention provides a risk exposure limit management system based on disposal effect, which is used to implement the above method, including:

[0062] Information collection unit, used to collect the reference price RP of the average holding cost of market participants t ;

[0063] Capital gains outstanding calculation unit, used to combine the reference price RP of the average holding cost of market participants t and volatility coefficient, calculate the capital gains outstanding amount CG0 at time t t ;

[0064] The limit forecast unit is used to set the limit L on the current market participants’ position risk exposure. i Make predictions;

[0065] The information feedback unit uses the reference price RP based on the price of non-cash assets and the average holding cost of market participants. t , providing current market participants with adjustment recommendations for non-cash assets.

[0066] In a third aspect, the present invention further provides a storage medium for storing computer executable instructions, which, when executed on a computer, implement the above-mentioned risk exposure limit management method based on disposal effects.

[0067] The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention. Any modifications, equivalent substitutions, improvements, etc. made within the spirit and principles of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A risk exposure limit management method based on disposal effect, characterized in that: The steps include: S1: Collect transaction data of non-cash assets of market participants over a certain period of time; S2: Based on the characteristics of the disposition effect of market participants, we construct the capital gains outstanding measure CGO to quantify the risk exposure of non-cash assets; S3: Based on market changes and the risk preference index of market participants, the current risk exposure limit of market participants is predicted and fed back to market participants; S4: Conduct real-time assessment based on changes in market participants’ position risk exposure limits and investment size, and provide feedback to market participants on the results of the reassessment.

2. A risk exposure limit management method based on disposal effect according to claim 1, characterized in that: The content of step S1 is to collect the reference price of the average holding cost of market participants as the transaction data of non-cash assets.

3. A risk exposure limit management method based on disposal effect according to claim 2, characterized in that: The reference price of the average holding cost of the market participants is calculated using the following formula: Where k is the normalized weight coefficient, V t-n and V t-n+s represents the turnover rate at time tn and time t-n+s, respectively, t is the reference time, s=1, 2, ..., n-1; P t-n Represents the average transaction price of non-cash assets at time tn; Represents the weight of the turnover rate at different times, Π is a multiplication operation; the sum of the weight coefficients of the turnover rate of different average prices at different times is 1; RP t The reference price representing the average holding cost at reference time t.

4. A risk exposure limit management method based on disposal effect according to claim 3, characterized in that: Step S2 is to calculate the chip distribution of non-cash assets using the cost-average price turnover rate method, and then based on the chip distribution, combine the reference price RP of the average holding cost of market participants. t and volatility coefficient, calculate the capital gains outstanding amount CG0 at time t t : i=1,2,...,N,where η1 is the first confidence level, η2 is the second confidence level, η1>η2; VaR i is the risk value of the i-th non-cash asset, N is the number of non-cash assets; VaR i =C i ×β i ×Z i , C i is the investment amount of the i-th non-cash asset, C i =M i ×RP t , M i is the holding amount of the i-th non-cash asset of the market participant; Z i is the critical value of the standard normal distribution of the i-th non-cash asset, β i is the volatility coefficient of the i-th non-cash asset, β i =1 indicates that the volatility of current non-cash assets is consistent with the volatility of the market; i >1 indicates that the volatility of current non-cash assets is greater than the volatility of the market; 0<β i When β is less than 1, it means that the volatility of current non-cash assets is less than the volatility of the market; i When <0, it means that the volatility of current non-cash assets is negatively correlated with market volatility.

5. A risk exposure limit management method based on disposal effect according to claim 4, characterized in that: The volatility coefficient of the i-th non-cash asset, β i Calculated using the following formula: i =γβ i1 +(1-γ)β i2 , β i1 is the first volatility risk indicator of the i-th non-cash asset, β i2 is the second volatility risk indicator of the i-th non-cash asset, γ is the probability that the market return is not greater than the threshold K; β i1 and β i2 The following conditions are met; Where R i is the expected rate of return of the i-th non-cash asset; α is the intercept term; R m is the market rate of return; is the indicator function when the market rate of return is not greater than the threshold K; is the indicator function when the market rate of return is not greater than the threshold K; e i is the error term; the threshold K is the historical lowest rate of return.

6. A risk exposure limit management method based on disposal effect according to claim 5, characterized in that: The prediction of the current market participant's position risk exposure limit in step S3 is based on the following formula to calculate the market participant's position risk exposure limit L: i : Where f is the maximum risk tolerance, let f = VaR imax , VaR imax is the maximum value of the risk of the i-th non-cash asset; risk i is the risk preference index of market participants, A is the investment cycle score, B is the risk preference score, C is the market volatility tolerance score, W a , W b , W c are the weights of parameters A, B, and C, respectively, and W a , W b , W c ∈(0,1).

7. A risk exposure limit management method based on disposal effect according to claim 6, characterized in that: The feedback given to market participants in step S3 is the capital gain outstanding amount CG0 at time t t Not less than the limit of position risk exposure L i , determine whether the following conditions are met: 1) If the current price of non-cash assets is greater than the reference price RP of the average holding cost of market participants t , indicating that the non-cash assets currently held by market participants are in a profitable state, and the profit state and profit level are fed back to market participants; if the investment cycle score A of the market participant is not less than 1 or the market volatility tolerance score C is not less than 1, it is recommended that the market participant continue to hold the current non-cash assets; if the investment cycle score A of the market participant is not less than 1 or the market volatility tolerance score C is less than 1, it is recommended that investors take profits; 2) If the current price of non-cash assets is equal to the reference price RP of the average holding cost of market participants t If the investment cycle score A of the market participant is not less than 1 or the market volatility tolerance score C is not less than 1, the market participant is advised to pay attention to the price of the current non-cash assets, reduce the scale of the current non-cash assets or maintain the current scale of non-cash assets unchanged; if the investment cycle score A of the market participant is not less than 1 or the market volatility tolerance score C is less than 1, the market participant is advised to sell the current non-cash assets; 3) If the current price of non-cash assets is lower than the reference price RP of the average holding cost of market participants t Regardless of the market participant's investment cycle score of A or market volatility tolerance score of C, market participants are advised to sell their current non-cash assets.

8. The risk exposure limit management method based on disposal effect according to claim 4, characterized in that: The first confidence level η1 is ≥95%, and η2 is the second confidence level ≥90%.

9. A risk exposure limit management system based on disposal, used to implement the method according to any one of claims 2 to 8, characterized in that: include: Information collection unit, used to collect the reference price RP of the average holding cost of market participants t ; Capital gains outstanding calculation unit, used to combine the reference price RP of the average holding cost of market participants t and volatility coefficient, calculate the capital gains outstanding amount CG0 at time t t ; The limit forecast unit is used to set the limit L on the current market participants’ position risk exposure. i Make predictions; The information feedback unit uses the reference price RP based on the price of non-cash assets and the average holding cost of market participants. t , providing current market participants with adjustment recommendations for non-cash assets.

10. A storage medium for storing computer executable instructions, which, when executed on a computer, implements the risk exposure limit management method based on disposal effect as described in any one of claims 2 to 8.

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