Multi-space-time coupling regional wind power probability prediction method

Through the multi-time and space-coupled regional wind power probability prediction method, combined with WRF, ROMS and SWAN models, multi-physics coupled data are generated and Bootstrap sampling method is used to solve the problem of accuracy of wind power prediction and extreme hill climbing event prediction in offshore wind farms. Improves the accuracy of wind power power prediction and grid safety.

CN119209526AInactive Publication Date: 2024-12-27STATE GRID ZHEJIANG ELECTRIC POWER CO LTD ZHOUSHAN POWER SUPPLY CO
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Patent Information

Application Number
CN202411536418.4
Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Applications(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
Filing Date
2024-10-31
Publication Date
2024-12-27
Estimated Expiration
Not applicable · inactive patent

AI Technical Summary

Technical Problem

The existing wind power prediction methods ignore the interaction between the atmosphere, the ocean and the waves in offshore wind farms, resulting in low accuracy and reliability of wind power power prediction, especially in extreme meteorological conditions, which is difficult to deal with wind power climbing events, which affects the impact of The power grid operates safely.

Method used

Multi-time and space-coupled regional wind power probability prediction method is used to build a MCT mesoscale coupler, combine WRF, ROMS and SWAN models to generate multi-physical coupled data, and use Bootstrap sampling method to construct a probability distribution model of wind power power to identify extreme crawling Slope event characteristics, construct an extreme hill climb event probability prediction model and provide early warning information.

Benefits of technology

It significantly improves the accuracy and reliability of wind power prediction, enhances the grid scheduling management and risk prevention and control capabilities, especially in complex and extreme meteorological conditions, which can more accurately capture the meteorological changes and marine dynamic characteristics of wind farms. Provide more accurate warning information.

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Abstract

The invention discloses a multi-time-space coupling regional wind power probability prediction method, and relates to the technical field of wind power prediction. A traditional wind power prediction method neglects interaction among atmosphere, ocean and sea waves, and is difficult to deal with wind power extreme climbing events under complex meteorological conditions, resulting in low prediction accuracy and reliability. The method comprises the following steps: constructing an MCT mesoscale coupler, constructing a sea-gas-wave meteorological coupling mode, constructing a Bootstrap sampling-based wind power probability prediction method, and constructing a wind power extreme climbing event probability prediction model. According to the technical scheme, through combination of multi-physics field coupling, probability prediction and extreme event early warning, the accuracy, reliability and safety of regional wind power prediction are greatly improved, the method is suitable for complex wind power plant scenes, especially offshore wind power plants, the scheduling management and risk prevention and control capabilities of a power grid can be effectively enhanced, and the economic benefits of the power grid are improved. And the requirements of wind power plant operation and power dispatching are met.
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Citation Information

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