Spare part guarantee probability determination method and related equipment

Abstract

The invention discloses a spare part guarantee probability determination method and related equipment, and the method comprises the steps: 1, carrying out the statistics of the economic cost C of a spare part; step 2, calculating probability matrixes corresponding to different quantities of spare part demands according to Poisson distribution; 3, according to the spare part economic cost C in the step 1 and the probability matrixes corresponding to the different spare part requirements in the step 2, the spare part guarantee rate improvement cost is calculated; and 4, setting a spare part guarantee rate improvement cost threshold value, and calculating a spare part guarantee probability obtained after the spare part guarantee and the spare part cost are considered according to the spare part guarantee rate improvement cost threshold value and the spare part guarantee rate improvement cost matrix in the step 3. According to the method, the cost is improved by controlling the spare part guarantee rate, so that the low-value aviation material demand prediction is more biased to equipment guarantee, the high-value aviation material demand prediction is more biased to cost control, the spare part guarantee probability determination is more scientific and accurate, and the aviation material spare part demand prediction has higher reference value.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of aviation maintenance and support, and in particular relates to a method for determining spare parts support probability and related equipment. Background Art

[0002] The probability of spare parts guarantee refers to the probability that spare parts are available when they are needed within a period of time. The probability of spare parts guarantee can be used as a constraint and plays a key role in the forecast of demand for aviation materials and spare parts. The size of the probability of spare parts guarantee directly affects the number of spare parts required during the forecast, thereby affecting the cost control of aviation materials and spare parts procurement and the guarantee capability of aviation equipment.

[0003] There are two main methods for determining the probability of spare parts support. One is based on engineering experience, which stipulates that the probability of spare parts support for equipment should be between 0.8 and 0.99. The probability of spare parts support is selected within this range and then adjusted based on the support effect. The other method is based on the availability of equipment, combined with the mean time between failures, mean time to repair, and mean supply response time of spare parts.

[0004] Obviously, when using these two methods to determine the probability of spare parts guarantee, only the guarantee of the equipment is considered, and the cost control of spare parts procurement is not considered. For aviation equipment, there are many types of spare parts, and the cost difference is huge. The guarantee probability of different types of spare parts should be quite different, otherwise it will affect the cost control of spare parts procurement. Moreover, when using method one, the parameter selection is relatively random, and the workload of subsequent adjustments is also large; using method two requires a large amount of basic data and requires artificially given availability, which actually converts the selection of spare parts guarantee probability into the selection of availability. Summary of the invention

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a method for determining the probability of spare parts support and related equipment, so as to improve the support capability under the condition of controlling the procurement cost when forecasting the demand for aviation material spare parts.

[0006] To achieve the above object, the present invention provides the following technical solutions:

[0007] A method for determining spare parts guarantee probability comprises the following steps:

[0008] Step 1, statistically analyzing the economic cost C of spare parts;

[0009] Step 2, calculating the probability matrix corresponding to different quantities of spare parts demand based on Poisson distribution;

[0010] Step 3: Calculate the cost of improving the spare parts guarantee rate based on the spare parts economic cost C in step 1 and the corresponding probability matrix under different spare parts requirements in step 2;

[0011] Step 4: Set a threshold value for improving the spare parts guarantee rate, and calculate the spare parts guarantee probability after considering spare parts guarantee and spare parts cost based on the threshold value for improving the spare parts guarantee rate and the spare parts guarantee rate improvement cost matrix in step 3.

[0012] Preferably, in step 2, the average number of spare parts required in the forecast period is calculated according to the estimated working time and the mean time between failures MTBF in the forecast period, and then the probability distribution of spare parts demand is calculated according to the Poisson distribution model to give a probability matrix corresponding to different demands:

[0013] P=[P(0),P(1),P(2),…,P(k)].

[0014] Preferably, in step 3, the cost of improving the spare parts guarantee rate is specified as the price to be paid for increasing the absolute value of the guarantee rate by 1%, and the calculation is performed starting from the element P(0) in the matrix P obtained in step S200, and the calculation method is as follows:

[0015]

[0016] Furthermore, in step 3, the cost B of increasing the spare parts guarantee rate is:

[0017] B=[B(0),B(1),B(2),…,B(k)]

[0018] Among them, B(i) is the cost of increasing the spare parts guarantee rate corresponding to demand i;

[0019] Furthermore, in step 3, the formula for improving the spare parts guarantee rate cost B(i) is:

[0020]

[0021] Where C is the spare parts cost and P(i) is the probability of demand being i.

[0022] Preferably, in step 4, the spare parts guarantee rate improvement cost threshold is set to B TH , starting from the first element B(0) of matrix B TH For comparison, if

[0023] B(i)≤B TH And B(i+1)≥B TH

[0024] Then i is the number of spare parts required to meet the cost of increasing the spare parts coverage rate.

[0025] Furthermore, in step 4, the elements P(0), P(1), ..., P(i) in the matrix P are summed.

[0026]

[0027] Then P BZ The spare parts guarantee probability is obtained after comprehensively considering spare parts guarantee and spare parts cost.

[0028] A device for determining spare parts guarantee probability, comprising:

[0029] a processor suitable for executing a computer program;

[0030] A computer-readable storage medium, wherein a computer program is stored in the computer-readable storage medium, and when the computer program is executed by the processor, a method for determining a spare parts guarantee probability as described in any one of the above items is executed.

[0031] A computer-readable storage medium stores a computer program, wherein the computer program, when executed by a processor, implements a method for determining a spare parts guarantee probability as described in any one of the above items.

[0032] A computer program product, comprising a computer program, wherein when the computer program is executed by a processor, the method for determining a spare parts guarantee probability as described in any one of the above items is implemented.

[0033] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial technical effects:

[0034] The present invention provides a method for determining the probability of spare parts guarantee. Compared with the previous method for determining the probability of spare parts guarantee, the method fully considers the impact of the guarantee probability on the economic cost when determining the probability of spare parts guarantee, balances equipment guarantee and cost control, and increases the cost by controlling the spare parts guarantee rate, so that the demand forecast of low-value aviation materials is more inclined to equipment guarantee, and the demand forecast of high-value aviation materials is more inclined to cost control, so that the determination of the probability of spare parts guarantee is more scientific and accurate, and the demand forecast of aviation materials and spare parts is more valuable for reference. At the same time, the method only needs to manually set a guarantee rate increase cost threshold, and can automatically generate the guarantee probability of spare parts by combining the value and probability distribution of various spare parts, so that the guarantee probability of various spare parts does not need to be determined separately. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0035] Figure 1 The present invention is a flow chart of a method for determining spare parts guarantee probability. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0036] In the following, only some exemplary embodiments are briefly described. As those skilled in the art will appreciate, the described embodiments may be modified in various ways without departing from the spirit or scope of the present invention. Therefore, the drawings and descriptions are considered to be exemplary and non-restrictive in nature.

[0037] In the description of the present invention, it should be understood that the terms "center", "longitudinal", "lateral", "length", "width", "thickness", "up", "down", "front", "back", "left", "right", "vertical", "horizontal", "top", "bottom", "inside", "outside", "clockwise", "counterclockwise", "axial", "radial", "circumferential" and the like indicate orientations or positional relationships based on the orientations or positional relationships shown in the accompanying drawings, and are only for the convenience of describing the present invention and simplifying the description, and do not indicate or imply that the referred device or element must have a specific orientation, be constructed and operated in a specific orientation, and therefore should not be understood as limiting the present invention.

[0038] In addition, the terms "first" and "second" are used for descriptive purposes only and should not be understood as indicating or implying relative importance or implicitly indicating the number of the indicated technical features. Therefore, the features defined as "first" and "second" may explicitly or implicitly include one or more of the features. In the description of the present invention, the meaning of "plurality" is two or more, unless otherwise clearly and specifically defined.

[0039] In the present invention, unless otherwise clearly specified and limited, the terms "installed", "connected", "connected", "fixed" and the like should be understood in a broad sense, for example, it can be a fixed connection, a detachable connection, or an integral connection; it can be a mechanical connection, an electrical connection, or a communication; it can be a direct connection, or an indirect connection through an intermediate medium, it can be the internal connection of two elements or the interaction relationship between two elements. For ordinary technicians in this field, the specific meanings of the above terms in the present invention can be understood according to specific circumstances.

[0040] In the present invention, unless otherwise clearly specified and limited, a first feature being "above" or "below" a second feature may include that the first and second features are in direct contact, or may include that the first and second features are not in direct contact but are in contact through another feature between them. Moreover, a first feature being "above", "above" and "above" a second feature includes that the first feature is directly above and obliquely above the second feature, or simply indicates that the first feature is higher in level than the second feature. A first feature being "below", "below" and "below" a second feature includes that the first feature is directly above and obliquely above the second feature, or simply indicates that the first feature is lower in level than the second feature.

[0041] It should be understood that when used in this specification and the appended claims, the terms "include" and "comprises" indicate the presence of described features, integers, steps, operations, elements and / or components, but do not exclude the presence or addition of one or more other features, integers, steps, operations, elements, components and / or combinations thereof.

[0042] It should also be understood that the terms used in the present specification are only for the purpose of describing specific embodiments and are not intended to limit the present invention. As used in the present specification and the appended claims, unless the context clearly indicates otherwise, the singular forms "a", "an" and "the" are intended to include plural forms.

[0043] It should be further understood that the term "and / or" used in the present description and the appended claims refers to any and all possible combinations of one or more of the associated listed items, and includes these combinations.

[0044] Various structural schematic diagrams of the embodiments disclosed in the present invention are shown in the accompanying drawings. These figures are not drawn to scale, and some details are magnified and some details may be omitted for the purpose of clear expression. The shapes of various regions and layers shown in the figures and the relative sizes and positional relationships therebetween are only exemplary, and may deviate in practice due to manufacturing tolerances or technical limitations, and those skilled in the art may additionally design regions / layers with different shapes, sizes, and relative positions according to actual needs.

[0045] The embodiments of the present invention are described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0046] The present invention provides a method for determining spare parts guarantee probability, comprising the following steps:

[0047] Step 1, statistically analyzing the economic cost C of spare parts;

[0048] Step 2, calculating the probability matrix corresponding to different quantities of spare parts demand based on Poisson distribution;

[0049] Step 3: Calculate the cost of improving the spare parts guarantee rate based on the spare parts economic cost C in step 1 and the corresponding probability matrix under different spare parts requirements in step 2;

[0050] Step 4, setting a spare parts guarantee rate improvement cost threshold, and calculating the spare parts guarantee probability after considering spare parts guarantee and spare parts cost based on the spare parts guarantee rate improvement cost threshold and the spare parts guarantee rate improvement cost matrix in step 3. The present invention improves the guarantee capability under the condition of controlling the procurement cost when forecasting the demand for aviation materials and spare parts.

[0051] Example 1

[0052] A method for determining spare parts guarantee probability mainly includes the following steps:

[0053] Step S100: Counting the economic cost of spare parts. Counting the economic cost C of spare parts.

[0054] Step S200: Calculate the probability distribution of spare parts demand. Calculate the average number of spare parts failures within the prediction period based on the estimated working time and the mean time between failures MTBF within the prediction period, specifically:

[0055] N=T pre / MTBUR

[0056] The probabilities corresponding to different numbers of failures are calculated according to the Poisson distribution model, specifically:

[0057]

[0058] P(k) is the probability of k failures, and the probability matrix of spare part failure is:

[0059] P=[P(0),P(1),P(2),…,P(k)]

[0060] Step S300: Calculate the cost of increasing the spare parts guarantee rate. The cost of increasing the spare parts guarantee rate is calculated based on the cost required to increase the absolute value of the guarantee rate by 1%, starting from the element P(0) in the matrix P obtained in step S200, and the calculation method is as follows:

[0061]

[0062] In the formula, B(i) is the cost of increasing the spare parts guarantee rate corresponding to demand i, C is the economic cost of spare parts, and P(i) is the probability of demand i. The spare parts guarantee rate increase cost matrix B is:

[0063] B=[B(0),B(1),B(2),…,B(k)]

[0064] Step S400: Determine the spare parts guarantee probability.

[0065] Initially given spare parts guarantee rate increase cost threshold B TH , starting from the first element B(0) of matrix B TH For comparison, if

[0066] B(i)≤B TH And B(i+1)≥B TH

[0067] Then i is the number of spare parts required to meet the cost of increasing the spare parts guarantee rate. Sum the elements P(0), P(1), …, P(i) in the matrix P,

[0068]

[0069] Then P BZ The spare parts guarantee probability is obtained after comprehensively considering spare parts guarantee and spare parts cost.

[0070] Note: When first determining the spare parts guarantee rate increase cost threshold B TH When the initial determination is completed, the cost threshold B of other spare parts is increased according to the determined spare parts guarantee rate. TH Calculate the spare parts support probability.

[0071] Compared with the previous methods for determining the probability of spare parts guarantee, the present invention fully considers the impact of the guarantee probability on the economic cost when determining the probability of spare parts guarantee, balances equipment guarantee and cost control, and increases the cost by controlling the spare parts guarantee rate, so that the demand forecast of low-value aviation materials is more inclined to equipment guarantee, and the demand forecast of high-value aviation materials is more inclined to cost control, making the determination of the probability of spare parts guarantee more scientific and accurate, and the demand forecast of aviation materials and spare parts is more valuable for reference. At the same time, the present method only needs to set a guarantee rate increase cost threshold, and can automatically generate the guarantee probability of spare parts by combining the value and probability distribution of various spare parts, so that the guarantee probability of various spare parts does not need to be determined separately.

[0072] Example 2

[0073] A method for determining the probability of spare parts support, such as Figure 1 As shown, the following steps are included:

[0074] Step S100: Counting the economic cost of spare parts. Counting the economic cost of spare parts.

[0075] Step S200: Calculate the probability distribution of spare parts demand. Calculate the average number of spare parts demanded in the forecast period based on the estimated working time and the mean time between failures (MTBF) in the forecast period, and then calculate the probability distribution of spare parts demand based on the Poisson distribution model to give the probability matrix corresponding to different demands:

[0076] P=[P(0),P(1),P(2),…,P(k)]

[0077] Step S300: Calculate the cost of increasing the spare parts guarantee rate. The cost of increasing the spare parts guarantee rate is defined as the price to be paid for increasing the guarantee rate by 1%. The calculation starts from the element P(0) in the matrix P obtained in step S200 and is calculated in sequence. The calculation method is as follows:

[0078]

[0079] In the formula, B(i) is the cost of increasing the spare parts guarantee rate corresponding to demand i, C is the spare parts cost, and P(i) is the probability of demand i. Then the spare parts guarantee rate increase cost matrix B is:

[0080] B=[B(0),B(1),B(2),…,B(k)]

[0081] Step S400: Determine the spare parts guarantee probability.

[0082] Set the cost threshold for increasing the spare parts guarantee rate to B TH , starting from the first element B(0) of matrix B TH For comparison, if

[0083] B(i)≤B TH And B(i+1)≥B TH

[0084] Then i is the number of spare parts required to meet the cost of increasing the spare parts guarantee rate. Sum the elements P(0), P(1), …, P(i) in the matrix P,

[0085]

[0086] Then P BZ The spare parts guarantee probability is obtained after comprehensively considering spare parts guarantee and spare parts cost.

[0087] Example 3

[0088] This embodiment is optimized on the basis of Embodiment 1, mainly focusing on step S400, and is specifically as follows:

[0089] Step S400: Determine the required quantity of spare parts.

[0090] Set the cost threshold for increasing the spare parts guarantee rate to B TH , by increasing the cost threshold through the spare parts guarantee rate to determine the number of spare parts required. The specific method is as follows:

[0091] Starting from the first element B(0) of matrix B TH For comparison, if

[0092] B(i)≤B TH And B(i+1)≥B TH

[0093] Then i is the number of spare parts required to meet the cost of increasing the spare parts coverage rate.

[0094] The following are device embodiments of the present invention, which can be used to perform method embodiments of the present invention. For details not disclosed in the device embodiments, please refer to the method embodiments of the present invention.

[0095] In another embodiment of the present invention, a computer device is provided, the computer device comprising a processor and a memory, the memory being used to store a computer program, the computer program comprising program instructions, and the processor being used to execute the program instructions stored in the computer storage medium. The processor may be a central processing unit (CPU), or may be other general-purpose processors, digital signal processors (DSP), application-specific integrated circuits (ASIC), field-programmable gate arrays (FPGA) or other programmable logic devices, discrete gates or transistor logic devices, discrete hardware components, etc., which are the computing core and control core of the terminal, which are suitable for implementing one or more instructions, and are specifically suitable for loading and executing one or more instructions to implement the corresponding method flow or corresponding functions; the processor described in the embodiment of the present invention can be used for the operation of a method for determining the probability of spare parts guarantee.

[0096] In another embodiment of the present invention, the present invention further provides a storage medium, specifically a computer-readable storage medium (Memory), which is a memory device in a computer device for storing programs and data. It is understandable that the computer-readable storage medium here can include both built-in storage media in a computer device and, of course, extended storage media supported by the computer device. The computer-readable storage medium provides a storage space, which stores the operating system of the terminal. In addition, one or more instructions suitable for being loaded and executed by a processor are also stored in the storage space, and these instructions can be one or more computer programs (including program codes). It should be noted that the computer-readable storage medium here can be a high-speed RAM memory or a non-volatile memory, such as at least one disk memory. The processor can load and execute one or more instructions stored in the computer-readable storage medium to implement the corresponding steps of the method for determining a spare parts guarantee probability in the above embodiment.

[0097] Those skilled in the art will appreciate that the embodiments of the present application may be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, the present application may adopt the form of a complete hardware embodiment, a complete software embodiment, or an embodiment in combination with software and hardware. Moreover, the present application may adopt the form of a computer program product implemented in one or more computer-usable storage media (including but not limited to disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) that include computer-usable program code.

[0098] The present application is described with reference to the flowcharts and / or block diagrams of the methods, devices (systems), and computer program products according to the embodiments of the present application. It should be understood that each process and / or box in the flowchart and / or block diagram, as well as the combination of the processes and / or boxes in the flowchart and / or block diagram, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, an embedded processor, or other programmable data processing device to generate a machine, so that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing device generate instructions for implementing the processes in the flowchart and / or block diagram. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in a block or multiple blocks.

[0099] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer readable memory capable of directing a computer or other programmable data processing device to operate in a specific manner, so that the instructions stored in the computer readable memory produce an article of manufacture including an instruction device, which implements the process Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A function specified in one or more boxes.

[0100] These computer program instructions can also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device so that a series of operating steps are executed on the computer or other programmable device to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing instructions for implementing the process. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The steps for the functions specified in one or more boxes.

[0101] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention rather than to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, ordinary technicians in the relevant field should understand that the specific implementation methods of the present invention can still be modified or replaced by equivalents. Any modification or equivalent replacement that does not depart from the spirit and scope of the present invention should be covered within the scope of protection of the claims of the present invention.

[0102] The above shows and describes the basic principles and main features of the present invention and the advantages of the present invention. It is obvious to those skilled in the art that the present invention is not limited to the details of the above exemplary embodiments, and the present invention can be implemented in other specific forms without departing from the spirit or basic features of the present invention. Therefore, no matter from which point of view, the embodiments should be regarded as exemplary and non-restrictive. The scope of the present invention is defined by the attached claims rather than the above description, and it is intended that all changes falling within the meaning and scope of the equivalent elements of the claims are included in the present invention. Any figure mark in the claims should not be regarded as limiting the claims involved.

[0103] In addition, it should be understood that although this specification is described in accordance with the implementation modes, not every implementation mode contains only one independent technical solution. This description of the specification is only for the sake of clarity. Those skilled in the art should regard the specification as a whole. The technical solutions in each embodiment can also be appropriately combined to form other implementation modes that can be understood by those skilled in the art. The above content is only to illustrate the technical idea of ​​the present invention, and cannot be used to limit the protection scope of the present invention. Any changes made on the basis of the technical solution according to the technical idea proposed by the present invention shall fall within the protection scope of the claims of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for determining spare parts guarantee probability, characterized in that: The following steps are included: Step 1, statistically analyzing the economic cost C of spare parts; Step 2, calculating the probability matrix corresponding to different quantities of spare parts demand based on Poisson distribution; Step 3: Calculate the cost of improving the spare parts guarantee rate based on the spare parts economic cost C in step 1 and the corresponding probability matrix under different spare parts requirements in step 2; Step 4: Set a threshold value for improving the spare parts guarantee rate, and calculate the spare parts guarantee probability after considering spare parts guarantee and spare parts cost based on the threshold value for improving the spare parts guarantee rate and the spare parts guarantee rate improvement cost matrix in step 3.

2. A method for determining spare parts guarantee probability according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step 2, the average number of spare parts required in the forecast period is calculated based on the estimated working time and the mean time between failures (MTBF) in the forecast period, and then the probability distribution of spare parts demand is calculated based on the Poisson distribution model to give the probability matrix corresponding to different demands: P=[P(0),P(1),P(2),…,P(k)].

3. A method for determining spare parts guarantee probability according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step 3, the cost of increasing the spare parts guarantee rate is defined as the price to be paid for increasing the absolute value of the guarantee rate by 1%. The calculation is performed starting from the element P(0) in the matrix P obtained in step S200. The calculation method is as follows:

4. A method for determining spare parts guarantee probability according to claim 3, characterized in that: In step 3, the cost B of increasing the spare parts guarantee rate is: B=[B(0),B(1),B(2),…,B(k)] Among them, B(i) is the cost of increasing the spare parts guarantee rate corresponding to demand i.

5. A method for determining spare parts guarantee probability according to claim 4, characterized in that: In step 3, the formula for increasing the spare parts guarantee rate cost B(i) is: Where C is the spare parts cost and P(i) is the probability of demand being i.

6. A method for determining spare parts guarantee probability according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step 4, set the cost threshold for increasing the spare parts guarantee rate to B TH , starting from the first element B(0) of matrix B and B TH For comparison, if B(i) ≤ B TH And B(i+1) ≥ B TH Then i is the number of spare parts required to meet the cost of increasing the spare parts coverage rate.

7. A method for determining spare parts guarantee probability according to claim 6, characterized in that: In step 4, the elements P(0), P(1), ..., P(i) in the matrix P are summed. Then P BZ The spare parts guarantee probability is obtained after comprehensively considering spare parts guarantee and spare parts cost.

8. A device for determining spare parts guarantee probability, characterized in that: include: a processor suitable for executing a computer program; A computer-readable storage medium, wherein a computer program is stored in the computer-readable storage medium, and when the computer program is executed by the processor, a method for determining a spare parts guarantee probability according to any one of claims 1 to 7 is executed.

9. A computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program, characterized in that: When the computer program is executed by a processor, the method for determining a spare parts guarantee probability as described in any one of claims 1 to 7 is implemented.

10. A computer program product, characterized in that The computer program product comprises a computer program, and when the computer program is executed by a processor, the method for determining a spare parts guarantee probability according to any one of claims 1 to 7 is implemented.

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