Substation power load inversion method and system based on incomplete public information

Abstract

The invention provides a substation power load inversion method and system based on incomplete public information, and belongs to the field of power system load modeling, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining a low-voltage grade substation target load curve through combining power generation data of a power plant and industrial power utilization constitution data; obtaining a target load curve of the high-voltage-class transformer substation by combining the user electricity purchase data and the industry electricity utilization composition data; correcting the weight of the low-voltage-class transformer substation according to the user electricity purchase data to obtain a low-voltage correction weight, and correcting the weight of the high-voltage-class transformer substation according to the power generation data of the power plant to obtain a high-voltage correction weight; and determining a substation power load curve according to the low-voltage-class substation target load curve, the low-voltage correction weight, the high-voltage-class substation target load curve and the high-voltage correction weight. Therefore, accurate estimation of urban substation load is realized, power grid reliability is improved, electric power and electric quantity balance is ensured, and stable operation of an electric power system is maintained.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the technical field of power system load modeling, and in particular relates to a substation power load inversion method and system based on incomplete public information. Background Art

[0002] In the planning and operation of modern power systems, the inversion of substation power load has always been a critical and complex issue, which directly affects the planning and operation of the power grid. Inverting the substation power load curve can help power system operators better manage power loads, optimize power resource allocation, and improve the reliability and stability of the power grid. If the load inversion amount of a substation is too low, it may lead to insufficient power supply. On the contrary, a high load inversion amount may lead to waste of resources and unnecessary power system investment. Therefore, accurate substation load inversion helps maintain the stable operation of the power system and improve the availability and economy of investment planning schemes.

[0003] Traditional substation power load modeling methods are based on a large amount of historical load data such as substation load points and daily power consumption data of users at each load point, as well as accurate industry composition and daily load curves of each industry. These methods usually rely on a large amount of accurate input data, but in reality, due to the high cost of obtaining the above-mentioned data, the low credibility of data sources, poor data quality and data ownership issues, the data is uncertain and incomplete, which in turn leads to poor accuracy of the substation power load inversion results obtained based on the above-mentioned uncertain and incomplete data, which is not conducive to the optimal allocation of power resources. Summary of the invention

[0004] In order to overcome the above-mentioned deficiencies of the prior art, the present invention provides a substation power load inversion method based on incomplete public information, comprising:

[0005] Acquire the target area's electricity consumption composition data based on incomplete public information and industry, wherein the incomplete public information includes power plant power generation data and user power purchase data;

[0006] Combined with the power generation data of power plants and the power consumption structure data of industries, the initial load curve of high-voltage substations is obtained, and load inversion is performed from high-voltage substations to low-voltage substations to obtain the target load curve of low-voltage substations;

[0007] Combined with the user power purchase data and industry power consumption data, the initial load curve of the low-voltage substation is obtained, and the load is inverted from the low-voltage substation to the high-voltage substation to obtain the target load curve of the high-voltage substation;

[0008] The weight of the low-voltage substation is modified according to the user's electricity purchase data to obtain the low-voltage modified weight, and the weight of the high-voltage substation is modified according to the power generation data of the power plant to obtain the high-voltage modified weight;

[0009] The substation power load curve is determined based on the low-voltage substation target load curve and low-voltage correction weight, the high-voltage substation target load curve and high-voltage correction weight.

[0010] Preferably, the power plant power generation data includes the power generation of the power plant at each moment;

[0011] The user power purchase data includes the monthly power consumption of the substation in the target area; the monthly power consumption of the substation in the target area is accumulated based on the monthly power purchase of users in the target area and the substation feeder data;

[0012] The industry electricity consumption composition data includes the load curve per unit value of different industries at different times on a typical day, and the proportion of electricity consumption of different industries using substations in the target area;

[0013] The formula for the proportion of power consumption of different industries using power supply from substations in the target area is as follows:

[0014]

[0015] K m.i is the proportion of power consumption of industry m using power supply from substation i in the target area, L m.i S is the electric load density of industry m powered by substation i; m.i is the land area of ​​industry m powered by substation i, and q is the number of industry types;

[0016] Among them, substations include high-voltage substations and low-voltage substations.

[0017] Preferably, combining the power generation data of the power plant and the power consumption composition data of the industry, obtaining the initial load curve of the high voltage substation, performing load inversion from the high voltage level to the low voltage level substation, and obtaining the target load curve of the low voltage level substation, including:

[0018] Obtain the initial load curve of high-voltage substations in the target area based on industry electricity consumption data and power plant power generation data;

[0019] The target load curve of the low-voltage substation is obtained by inverting the initial load curve of the high-voltage substation and the obtained substation feeder data.

[0020] Preferably, the initial load curve of the high voltage substation in the target area is obtained according to the industry power consumption composition data and the power generation data of the power plant, including:

[0021] According to the proportion of power consumption of different industries using power supply from substations in the target area, the per unit value of load curves of different industries at different times on a typical day, and the main transformer capacity data of high-voltage substations obtained, the comprehensive characteristic indicators of high-voltage substations at different times are obtained;

[0022] Obtain the power proportion of the comprehensive characteristic index of the high voltage substation at each moment in the comprehensive characteristic index of all high voltage substations at each moment;

[0023] Obtain the total power generation of all power plants in the target area at each moment according to the power generation of the power plant at each moment;

[0024] The total power generation of all power plants at each moment is multiplied by the power share to obtain the initial load value of the high-voltage substation at each moment, and the initial load curve is obtained according to the initial load value at each moment;

[0025] Among them, the formula for the comprehensive characteristic index of the high voltage level substation at each moment is as follows:

[0026]

[0027] G i,t is the comprehensive characteristic index of high voltage level substation i at time t, K m.i is the proportion of power consumption of industry m using power supply from substation i in the target area, P t,m is the load curve per unit value of industry m at time t on a typical day, P S,i is the main transformer capacity data of high voltage level substation i, q is the number of industry types;

[0028] The formula for power ratio is as follows:

[0029]

[0030] k i,t is the power proportion of the comprehensive characteristic index of high voltage substation i at time t in the comprehensive characteristic index of all high voltage substations in the target area at time t, and n is the total number of high voltage substations;

[0031] The formula for the total power generation of all power plants in the target area at each time is as follows:

[0032]

[0033] P G,t n G The total power generation of the power plants at time t, P j,t is the power generation of power plant j at time t, n G is the total number of power plants;

[0034] The formula for the initial load value of a high voltage substation at each moment is as follows:

[0035] P S,i,t =P G,t ×k i,t

[0036] P S,i,t is the initial load value of the high voltage substation at each time, P G,t n G The total power generation of the power plants at time t is k i,t It is the power proportion of the comprehensive characteristic index of high voltage substation i at time t to the comprehensive characteristic index of all high voltage substations in the target area at time t.

[0037] Preferably, the target load curve of the low voltage substation is obtained by inverting the initial load curve of the high voltage substation and the acquired substation feeder data, including:

[0038] Obtain low-voltage substations under high-voltage substations in the target area according to substation feeder data;

[0039] According to the main transformer capacity of each voltage level substation obtained, the proportional relationship between the main transformer capacity of the lower substation and the main transformer capacity of the upper substation is obtained, and the proportional relationship is determined as the power supply ratio of the upper substation to the lower substation;

[0040] According to the power supply ratio of the upper substation to the lower substation and the initial load curve of the high voltage substation, the target load curve of the low voltage substation is obtained;

[0041] Among them, the formula for the power supply ratio of the upper substation to the lower substation is as follows:

[0042]

[0043] k i,x is the power supply ratio of the upper substation i to the lower substation x, P d,i,x is the main transformer capacity of the lower substation x of the upper substation i, P S,i is the main transformer capacity of the upper-level substation i.

[0044] Preferably, combining the user power purchase data and the industry power consumption composition data, obtaining the initial load curve of the low voltage substation, performing load inversion from the low voltage substation to the high voltage substation, and obtaining the target load curve of the high voltage substation, including:

[0045] Based on the industry electricity consumption data and user electricity purchase data, the initial load curve of the low-voltage substation in the target area is obtained;

[0046] The target load curve of the high-voltage substation is obtained by inverting the initial load curve of the low-voltage substation and the obtained substation feeder data.

[0047] Preferably, the initial load curve of the low-voltage substation in the target area is obtained according to the industry power consumption composition data and the user power purchase data, including:

[0048] The daily power consumption of the low-voltage substation on each day of the specified month is obtained according to the product of the monthly power consumption of the low-voltage substation in the target area and the proportion of power consumption on each day of the typical month;

[0049] According to the proportion of power consumption of different industries using power supply from substations in the target area and the per unit values ​​of load curves of different industries at different times on a typical day, the per unit values ​​of load curves of low-voltage substations at different times are obtained;

[0050] According to the daily power consumption of the low voltage substation on each day of the specified month and the per unit value of the load curve of the low voltage substation at each time, the initial load value of the low voltage substation at each time is obtained, and the initial load curve is obtained according to the initial load value at each time;

[0051] Among them, the formula for the per unit value of the load curve of the low voltage substation at each moment is as follows:

[0052]

[0053] P i,t is the per unit value of the load curve of low voltage substation i in the target area at time t, P t,m is the load curve per unit value of industry m at time t on a typical day, K m.i is the proportion of power consumption of industry m that uses power supply from substation i in the target area, and q is the number of industry types;

[0054] The formula for the initial load value of a low voltage substation at each time is as follows:

[0055]

[0056] P S,i,t is the initial load value of low voltage substation i at time t, E i,w is the daily power consumption of substation i on the wth day of a typical month.

[0057] Preferably, the weight of the low voltage substation is corrected according to the user's electricity purchase data to obtain the low voltage correction weight, and the weight of the high voltage substation is corrected according to the power generation data of the power plant to obtain the high voltage correction weight, which includes:

[0058] Obtaining the load value of the target load curve of the low-voltage substation and the load value of the target load curve of the high-voltage substation;

[0059] Calculate the first mean square error between the load value of the target load curve of the low voltage substation and the monthly power consumption of the substation in the target area;

[0060] Calculate the second mean square error between the load value of the target load curve of the high voltage substation and the actual power generation of the power plant, wherein the actual power generation of the power plant is the accumulated value of the power generation of the power plant at each time;

[0061] The weight of the low voltage level substation is corrected according to the first mean square error and the second mean square error to obtain the low voltage correction weight; the weight of the high voltage level substation is corrected according to the first mean square error and the second mean square error to obtain the high voltage correction weight;

[0062] Among them, the formula for obtaining the first mean square error is as follows:

[0063]

[0064] in, For m o The first mean square error between the load value of the monthly low-voltage substation target load curve and the monthly power consumption of the substation in the target area, where n is the total number of low-voltage substations; The low voltage level substation i is at the mth o Monthly power consumption of the substation in January, The low voltage level substation i is at the mth o Monthly load value;

[0065] The formula for obtaining the second mean square error is as follows:

[0066]

[0067] in, For m o The second mean square error between the load value of the high-voltage substation target load curve in the month and the actual power generation of the power plant, T is the mth o The total number of hours in the month, For m o The actual power generation of the power plant at time t in the month, For m o The load value of the high voltage level substation at time t;

[0068] The formula for low voltage correction weight is as follows:

[0069]

[0070] The formula for the high voltage correction weight is as follows:

[0071]

[0072] in, is m o Monthly low voltage correction weight, is m o Monthly high voltage correction weight, is m o The first mean square error of the month, is m o The second mean square error of the month.

[0073] Preferably, obtaining the load value of the target load curve of the low voltage substation and the load value of the target load curve of the high voltage substation includes:

[0074] Accumulate the load values ​​of the target load curve of the low-voltage substation in the specified month at each time to obtain the monthly load value of the low-voltage substation in the specified month, and determine the monthly load value of the low-voltage substation in the specified month as the load value of the target load curve of the low-voltage substation;

[0075] Accumulate the load values ​​of the target load curve of the high-voltage substation in the specified month at each moment to obtain the hourly load values ​​of all high-voltage substations in the specified month at each moment, and determine the hourly load values ​​of all high-voltage substations in the specified month as the load values ​​of the target load curve of the high-voltage substation.

[0076] Based on the same inventive concept, the present invention also provides a substation power load inversion system based on incomplete public information, the system comprising:

[0077] A data acquisition unit, used to acquire incomplete public information of a target area and industry electricity consumption composition data, wherein the incomplete public information includes power generation data of power plants and power purchase data of users;

[0078] A low voltage substation target load curve acquisition unit is used to obtain the initial load curve of the high voltage substation by combining the power generation data of the power plant and the power consumption composition data of the industry, and to perform load inversion from the high voltage substation to the low voltage substation to obtain the target load curve of the low voltage substation;

[0079] A high voltage substation target load curve acquisition unit is used to obtain the initial load curve of the low voltage substation by combining the user power purchase data and the industry power consumption composition data, and perform load inversion from the low voltage substation to the high voltage substation to obtain the target load curve of the high voltage substation;

[0080] A correction weight acquisition unit, used to correct the weight of the low voltage level substation according to the user's electricity purchase data to obtain a low voltage correction weight, and to correct the weight of the high voltage level substation according to the power generation data of the power plant to obtain a high voltage correction weight;

[0081] The substation power load curve determination unit is used to determine the substation power load curve according to the low voltage level substation target load curve and the low voltage correction weight, the high voltage level substation target load curve and the high voltage correction weight.

[0082] Based on the same inventive concept, the present invention also provides a computer device, including: one or more processors;

[0083] A memory for storing one or more programs;

[0084] When the one or more programs are executed by the one or more processors, the substation power load inversion method based on incomplete public information as mentioned above is implemented.

[0085] Based on the same inventive concept, the present invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon. When the computer program is executed, the substation power load inversion method based on incomplete public information as described above is implemented.

[0086] Compared with the closest prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0087] The present invention provides a substation power load inversion method based on incomplete public information, comprising: obtaining power plant power generation data, user power purchase data and industry power consumption composition data in a target area; combining the power plant power generation data and the industry power consumption composition data to obtain an initial load curve of a high-voltage substation, performing load inversion from the high-voltage substation to the low-voltage substation, and obtaining a target load curve of the low-voltage substation; combining the power purchase data and the industry power consumption composition data to obtain an initial load curve of a low-voltage substation, performing load inversion from the low-voltage substation to the high-voltage substation, and obtaining a target load curve of the high-voltage substation; correcting the weight of the low-voltage substation according to the user power purchase data to obtain a low-voltage corrected weight, and correcting the weight of the high-voltage substation according to the power plant power generation data to obtain a high-voltage corrected weight; determining the substation power load curve according to the target load curve of the low-voltage substation and the low-voltage corrected weight, the target load curve of the high-voltage substation and the high-voltage corrected weight. The present invention utilizes the industry electricity consumption composition data in combination with the power generation data of power plants and the user electricity purchase data of incomplete public information to respectively complete the high-voltage substation load modeling and the low-voltage substation load modeling, and adopts the error-suppressed load combination inversion to obtain the substation load curve in combination with the respective correction weights of substations of different voltage levels, thereby realizing accurate estimation of the urban substation load, helping to improve the stability and reliability of the power grid, ensure the balance of power and electricity, and maintain the stable operation of the power system. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0088] Figure 1 The present invention provides a flow chart of a substation power load inversion method based on incomplete public information;

[0089] Figure 2 A schematic diagram of the land area ratio of each industry in different blocks of the target area substation provided by the present invention;

[0090] Figure 3 A schematic diagram of the per unit value of load curves of different industries at various times on a typical day provided by the present invention;

[0091] Figure 4 A schematic diagram of the proportion of daily electricity consumption in a typical month provided by the present invention;

[0092] Figure 5 A schematic diagram of a specific process of a substation power load inversion method based on incomplete public information provided by the present invention;

[0093] Figure 6 A structural diagram of a substation power load inversion system based on incomplete public information provided by the present invention;

[0094] Figure 7A schematic diagram of an electronic device provided by the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0095] The embodiments of the present application are described in detail below, and examples of the embodiments are shown in the accompanying drawings, wherein the same or similar reference numerals throughout represent the same or similar elements or elements having the same or similar functions. The embodiments described below with reference to the accompanying drawings are exemplary and are intended to be used to explain the present application, and should not be construed as limiting the present application.

[0096] Embodiment 1:

[0097] The present invention provides a substation power load inversion method based on incomplete public information, specifically, Figure 1 The flowchart of the substation power load inversion method based on incomplete public information provided by the embodiment of the present invention includes the following steps as shown in the figure:

[0098] S1: Obtain incomplete public information and industry electricity consumption data of the target area, wherein the incomplete public information includes power generation data of power plants and power purchase data of users;

[0099] S2: Combine the power generation data of the power plant and the power consumption composition data of the industry to obtain the initial load curve of the high-voltage substation, perform load inversion from the high-voltage substation to the low-voltage substation, and obtain the target load curve of the low-voltage substation;

[0100] S3: Combine the user power purchase data and the industry power consumption composition data to obtain the initial load curve of the low-voltage substation, perform load inversion from the low-voltage substation to the high-voltage substation, and obtain the target load curve of the high-voltage substation;

[0101] S4: The weight of the low-voltage substation is modified according to the user's electricity purchase data to obtain the low-voltage modified weight, and the weight of the high-voltage substation is modified according to the power generation data of the power plant to obtain the high-voltage modified weight;

[0102] S5: Determine the substation power load curve according to the low voltage level substation target load curve and the low voltage correction weight, the high voltage level substation target load curve and the high voltage correction weight.

[0103] The present invention uses the industry electricity composition data in combination with the power plant power generation data and user power purchase data in the incomplete public information to complete the high-voltage substation load modeling and low-voltage substation load modeling respectively, and uses the error-suppressed load combination inversion to obtain the substation load curve in combination with the respective correction weights of the substations of different voltage levels, thereby achieving accurate estimation of the urban substation load, helping to improve the stability and reliability of the power grid, ensure the balance of power and electricity, and maintain the stable operation of the power system. In this way, it helps the power grid operator to better plan and adjust the power generation and power consumption plan to meet the actual needs, prevent overload or shortage, and thus reduce the risk of power outages and failures.

[0104] In the present invention, incomplete public information is utilized, such as power generation data of power plants and user power purchase data, in order to overcome the defects of data uncertainty, incompleteness and inaccuracy. Even in the absence of a large amount of accurate historical load data such as substation load points and daily electricity consumption data of users at each load point, the substation load can still be reliably modeled, thereby improving the prediction accuracy of the substation load in the target area.

[0105] In S1, the incomplete public information of the target area is investigated and sorted out to obtain the power generation data of power plants, user power purchase data and industry power consumption structure data in the target area.

[0106] In the present invention, it is assumed that the target area is an independent power grid without external power access. According to the actual international and domestic situation, the incomplete public information of each target area is mainly the power generation data of the power plant and the power purchase data of the users.

[0107] First, obtain accurate data of the target area, including power generation information of power plants, infrastructure information of substations, electricity purchase data of users, and per unit values ​​of load curves of different industries on typical days.

[0108] 1) Power plant power generation information: including power plant capacity and power generation curve;

[0109] Based on the real-time statistical data of power plant operators in the target area, the installed capacity of the power plants and the power generation of each power plant at each moment were obtained through investigation and collation.

[0110] 2) Substation infrastructure information: including substation main transformer capacity information, location, and line connection relationship;

[0111] According to the power grid conditions in the target area, the main transformer capacity information of the regional substation, the location of the substation, and the feeder conditions of each substation are investigated and sorted out. According to the feeder conditions of each substation, the radiation range of the substation feeder and the power supply area of ​​the substation are obtained, and the line connection relationship of each substation is obtained according to the feeder conditions of each substation. In the present invention, for the convenience of calculation, it is assumed that the connection relationship of substations below 500KV is a single substation power supply mode.

[0112] 3) Industry map; obtained through data from the Industry Survey Bureau.

[0113] 4) User electricity purchase data; obtained through the power grid company.

[0114] 5) Unit values ​​of load curves for different industries on typical days; where unit values ​​are relative values ​​of various physical quantities and parameters, and are dimensionless values.

[0115] Secondly, the data required for substation load inversion is calculated based on the accurate data of the target area. Among them, the power plant power generation information is directly provided by the power plant operator, and the substation infrastructure information is obtained by system configuration. It is the data required for substation load inversion and does not need to be calculated again.

[0116] In addition, the data required for substation load inversion can be calculated based on the accurate data of the target area, including the monthly power consumption of the substation in the target area, the industrial composition of the substation in the target area, and the typical daily load curve shape of each industry in the target area.

[0117] 1) Monthly electricity consumption of substations in the target area;

[0118] The monthly electricity consumption of the substation in the target area is obtained based on the electricity purchase data of the power grid company users in the target area and the substation feeder data. The statistical scale of the electricity purchase data is each user, and the electricity consumption data in the target area of ​​the substation is accumulated to obtain the monthly electricity consumption of the substation in the target area.

[0119] 2) Industrial composition of the target area: including the proportion of industrial land used for substations in the target area and the industrial electricity load density in the target area;

[0120] The substation in the target area is combined with the industrial map, and the industrial land of the substation in the target area is obtained by color recognition of the industrial map of the substation in the target area.

[0121] In the present invention, according to the industrial map of the target area or the urban land use situation, the land use ratio of commercial, industrial, residential, municipal agencies and other departments in each block of the target area is analyzed. Based on the urban industrial map, the industrial composition of different blocks in the city is obtained, and a block-industry distribution analysis model is established, in which the urban industrial map distinguishes the nature of the plots with different colors. An algorithm is used for intelligent identification and adjustment to obtain the block industry ratio, and the corresponding industrial area is obtained by accumulating the blocks in the city and the substation blocks in the target area.

[0122] According to the marking of the substation in the target area on the industrial map, the relevant industrial area is identified through the pixel recognition program, such as Figure 2The figure below shows the land area ratio of each industry in different blocks of the target area substation. The red area represents residential land, the yellow area represents commercial land, and the green area represents municipal land.

[0123] The power consumption per unit area of ​​each industry can be obtained by using the survey data of the load index per unit building area. In a specific implementation, based on the actual situation, it can be determined that the industrial power load density is 40W / m 2 , commercial power load density is 15W / m 2 , the residential electricity load density is 10W / m 2 The power load density of municipal agencies is 15W / m 2 .

[0124] Furthermore, by combining the industrial power load density of the target area with the industrial land proportion of the substation in the target area, the power proportion of different industries in the target area using power supply from the substation can be obtained. Specifically, the formula for the power proportion of different industries in the target area using power supply from the substation is as follows:

[0125]

[0126] K m.i is the proportion of power consumption of industry m using power supply from substation i in the target area, L m.i S is the electric load density of industry m powered by substation i; m.i is the land area of ​​industry m powered by substation i, and q is the number of industry types;

[0127] The substations include high-voltage substations and low-voltage substations. When calculating the power consumption ratio of different industries powered by substations in the target area, the type of substation is not limited. When the power generation data of the power plant is used to obtain the initial load curve of the high-voltage substation, the power consumption ratio of industry m powered by high-voltage substation i is used; when the initial load curve of the low-voltage substation is obtained by using the user's power purchase data and the industry's power composition data, the power consumption ratio of industry m powered by low-voltage substation i is used.

[0128] 3) Typical daily load curves of various industries in the target area

[0129] The typical daily load curves of various industries are investigated and replaced based on commonality. Therefore, the typical daily load curves of various industries can be used as the daily load curves of various industries in the target area. In other words, it is not necessary to accurately obtain the daily load curves of various industries, but to use the typical daily load curves of various industries for replacement.

[0130] like Figure 3As shown, it is a schematic diagram of the load curve per unit value of different industries at each time on a typical day provided by an embodiment of the present invention. It can be understood that Figure 3 The typical daily load curves of various industries shown are only examples and do not constitute a limitation of the present application. Those skilled in the art can determine the typical daily load curves of various industries according to needs.

[0131] Among them, the industry electricity consumption structure data includes the proportion of electricity consumption of different industries in the target area that use substations for power supply, and the per-unit value of the load curve of different industries at different times on a typical day.

[0132] At this point, the power plant power generation data, user power purchase data and industry power consumption data of the target area are obtained in S1. Specifically, the power plant power generation data includes the power generation of the power plant at each time; the user power purchase data includes the monthly power consumption of the substation in the target area; the industry power consumption data includes the load curve per unit value of different industries at each time on a typical day, and the power consumption proportion of different industries in the target area that use substations for power supply.

[0133] In S2, the initial load curve of the high-voltage substation is obtained by combining the power generation data of the power plant and the power consumption composition data of the industry. The load is inverted from the high-voltage substation to the low-voltage substation to obtain the target load curve of the low-voltage substation, including:

[0134] S2-1, obtain the initial load curve of high-voltage substations in the target area based on the industry electricity consumption structure data and power plant power generation data;

[0135] S2-2, performing inversion based on the initial load curve of the high-voltage substation and the acquired substation feeder data to obtain the target load curve of the low-voltage substation.

[0136] In S2-1, the initial load curve of the high-voltage substation in the target area is obtained based on the industry power consumption data and power plant power generation data, including:

[0137] S2-1-1, based on the proportion of electricity consumption of different industries in the target area that use substations for power supply, the per unit value of the load curve of different industries at different times on a typical day, and the main transformer capacity data of high-voltage substations obtained, obtain the comprehensive characteristic indicators of high-voltage substations at different times.

[0138] In order to comprehensively consider the characteristics of different substations and make the load curve shape closer to the actual curve, the load characteristics of each substation are established based on the industry electricity consumption structure data, and the comprehensive characteristic indicators of high-voltage substations at each time are obtained.

[0139] Specifically, the formula for the comprehensive characteristic index of the high voltage substation at each moment is as follows:

[0140]

[0141] Among them, G i,t is the comprehensive characteristic index of high voltage level substation i at time t, K m.i is the proportion of power consumption of industry m using power supply from substation i in the target area, P t,m is the load curve per unit value of industry m at time t on a typical day, P S,i is the main transformer capacity data of high voltage substation i, and q is the number of industry types.

[0142] S2-1-2, obtaining the power proportion of the comprehensive characteristic index of the high-voltage substation at each moment in the comprehensive characteristic index of all high-voltage substations at each moment.

[0143] According to the obtained comprehensive characteristic index of each high voltage level substation at each moment, the comprehensive characteristic index of all high voltage level substations at each moment is obtained. Further, the power proportion of the comprehensive characteristic index of each high voltage level substation at each moment in the comprehensive characteristic index of all high voltage level substations at each moment is obtained.

[0144] Specifically, the formula for power ratio is as follows:

[0145]

[0146] Among them, k i,t is the power proportion of the comprehensive characteristic index of high voltage substation i at time t to the comprehensive characteristic index of all high voltage substations in the target area at time t, and n is the total number of high voltage substations.

[0147] S2-1-3, obtaining the total power generation of all power plants in the target area at each moment according to the power generation of the power plants at each moment.

[0148] According to the power generation situation of power plants in the target area, the power generation curves of different power plants at each moment are accumulated to obtain the total power generation of all power plants in the target area at each moment.

[0149] Specifically, the formula for the total power generation of all power plants in the target area at each time is as follows:

[0150]

[0151] Among them, P G,t n G The total power generation of the power plants at time t, P j,t is the power generation of power plant j at time t, n G is the total number of power plants.

[0152] S2-1-4, multiplying the total power generation of all power plants at each moment by the power proportion, obtaining the initial load value of the high-voltage substation at each moment, and obtaining the initial load curve according to the initial load value at each moment.

[0153] Specifically, the formula for the initial load value of the high voltage substation at each time is as follows:

[0154] P S,i,t =P G,t ×k i,t (5)

[0155] Among them, P S,i,t is the initial load value of the high voltage substation at each time, P G,t n G The total power generation of the power plants at time t is k i,t It is the power proportion of the comprehensive characteristic index of high voltage substation i at time t to the comprehensive characteristic index of all high voltage substations in the target area at time t.

[0156] Furthermore, after the initial load value of the high voltage level substation at each moment is obtained, the initial load curve of the high voltage level substation is obtained according to the initial load value at each moment.

[0157] The following is a description of the process of obtaining the initial load curve of a high voltage substation with a specific example. In a specific example, there are three high voltage substations, namely 500KV substations, namely 500KV substation A, 500KV substation B, and 500KV substation C. At a specific moment, after obtaining the comprehensive characteristic index of each high voltage substation at that moment, the power proportion of the comprehensive characteristic index of each high voltage substation at that moment is obtained as 1 / 3, 1 / 2, and 1 / 6, respectively. Assuming that there are 4 power plants supplying power to these three 500KV substations, the power generation of these 4 power plants at this moment is 400, 300, 500, and 600, respectively, and the total power generation of all power plants at this moment is 1800. According to the power proportion of the comprehensive characteristic index of each high voltage substation at this moment and the total power generation of all power plants, the initial load values ​​of the three 500KV substations at this moment are obtained as follows: 600, 900, and 300, respectively. Subsequently, the initial load curves of each high-voltage level substation are obtained based on the initial load values ​​of the three 500KV substations at each moment.

[0158] In S2-2, the initial load curve of the high-voltage substation and the obtained substation feeder data are inverted to obtain the target load curve of the low-voltage substation, including:

[0159] S2-2-1, obtaining the low-voltage substations under the high-voltage substations in the target area according to the substation feeder data.

[0160] In the present invention, each high voltage substation will supply power to multiple subordinate low voltage substations of different levels. Specifically, the low voltage substations subordinate to the high voltage substation in the target area can be obtained according to the feeder data of each voltage level substation.

[0161] Continuing with the above example, taking 500KV substation A as an example, according to the feeder data of substations of different voltage levels, 500KV substation A has three subordinate 220KV substations, namely 220KV substations A1, A2, and A3; 220KV substation A1 has two subordinate 110KV substations, namely 110KV substation A 11 , A 12 ;110KV substation A 11 There are 4 35KV substations under it, namely A 111 , A 112 , A 113 , A 114 ; 35KV substation A 111 There are 2 10KV substations under it A 1111 , A 1112 For each voltage level substation, only some substations are listed above for the purpose of brief description, and the remaining substations are not described here.

[0162] S2-2-2, according to the main transformer capacity of each voltage level substation obtained, obtain the proportional relationship between the main transformer capacity of the lower-level substation and the main transformer capacity of the upper-level substation, and determine the proportional relationship as the power supply ratio of the upper-level substation to the lower-level substation.

[0163] After obtaining the ownership relationship of the substations of various voltage levels under the 500KV substation in the target area, the main transformer capacity of each voltage level substation is used as the basis for division, and the power supply ratio is divided according to the main transformer capacity of each feeder, that is, the ratio of the main transformer capacity of each feeder to the main transformer capacity of the upper-level substation, which is the power supply ratio of the substations under the 500KV substation. The power supply ratio of substations of each voltage level is obtained by pushing it downward step by step.

[0164] It can be understood that the power supply ratio from the upper-level substation to the lower-level substation is a fixed value and does not change with the change of time t.

[0165] Specifically, the formula for the power supply ratio from the upper-level substation to the lower-level substation is as follows:

[0166]

[0167] Among them, ki,x is the power supply ratio of the upper substation i to the lower substation x, P d,i,x is the main transformer capacity of the lower substation x of the upper substation i, P S,i is the main transformer capacity of the upper-level substation i.

[0168] S2-2-3, according to the power supply ratio of the upper-level substation to the lower-level substation and the initial load curve of the high-voltage substation, the target load curve of the low-voltage substation is obtained.

[0169] According to the power supply relationship of substations of different voltage levels, the initial load value of the 500KV substation at each moment is divided downward according to the above power supply ratio to obtain the load curve of each 220KV substation. It is further divided downward according to the power supply ratio of substations of different voltage levels to obtain the target load curves of each 110KV, 35KV and 10KV substations in turn.

[0170] In S3, the initial load curve of the low-voltage substation is obtained by combining the user power purchase data and the industry power consumption composition data. The load is inverted from the low-voltage substation to the high-voltage substation to obtain the target load curve of the high-voltage substation, including:

[0171] S3-1, based on the industry electricity consumption data and user electricity purchase data, obtain the initial load curve of the low-voltage substation in the target area;

[0172] S3-2, performing inversion based on the initial load curve of the low-voltage substation and the acquired substation feeder data to obtain the target load curve of the high-voltage substation.

[0173] In S3-1, the initial load curve of low-voltage substations in the target area is obtained based on the industry power consumption data and user power purchase data, including:

[0174] S3-1-1, obtain the daily electricity consumption of the low-voltage substation on each day of the specified month according to the product of the monthly electricity consumption of the low-voltage substation in the target area and the proportion of daily electricity consumption in a typical month.

[0175] By sorting out the markings of the substation power supply area on the map, we can know the feeder composition of each substation power supply range, and each feeder is further identified to each user. The power purchase data of different users of each feeder is accumulated to obtain the power consumption data of the feeder, and the power consumption data of each feeder of different substations is accumulated to obtain the power consumption data of the substation. In general, the user power purchase data is counted on a monthly basis, and the daily power consumption of the substation is obtained by multiplying the power consumption proportion of each day in a typical month by the monthly power consumption of the substation.

[0176] like Figure 4, which is a schematic diagram of the proportion of daily electricity consumption in a typical month provided by the present invention. Specifically, for a certain month, the monthly electricity consumption of the low-voltage substation in the target area is obtained, and then combined with the proportion of daily electricity consumption in the typical month, the daily electricity consumption E of the low-voltage substation in the specified month is obtained. i,w , E i,w is the daily power consumption of substation i on the wth day of a typical month.

[0177] S3-1-2, based on the proportion of electricity consumption of different industries in the target area that use power supply from the substation and the per unit value of the load curve of different industries at each time on a typical day, obtain the per unit value of the load curve of the low-voltage substation at each time.

[0178] According to the proportion of power consumption of different industries in the target area that use low-voltage substations for power supply and the per-unit values ​​of the load curves of different industries at each time on a typical day, the per-unit values ​​of the load curves of the industry at each time when using low-voltage substations for power supply are multiplied, and the per-unit values ​​of the load curves of different industries at each time when using low-voltage substations for power supply are accumulated to obtain the per-unit values ​​of the load curves of low-voltage substations at each time. Among them, low-voltage substations are 35KV substations or 10KV substations. Some 35KV substations can directly supply power to users, and some 35KV substations are inverted to 10KV substations based on feeder data, and power is supplied to users through 10KV substations.

[0179] Specifically, the formula for the per unit value of the load curve of a low-voltage substation at each moment is as follows:

[0180]

[0181] Among them, P i,t is the per unit value of the load curve of low voltage substation i in the target area at time t, P t,m is the load curve per unit value of industry m at time t on a typical day, K m.i is the proportion of electricity consumption of industry m that uses power supply from substation i in the target area, and q is the number of industry types.

[0182] S3-1-3, according to the daily power consumption of the low-voltage substation on each day of the specified month and the per unit value of the load curve of the low-voltage substation at each moment, obtain the initial load value of the low-voltage substation at each moment, and obtain the initial load curve according to the initial load value at each moment.

[0183] The load curve per unit value P of low voltage substation i at each time t in a day i,tAccumulate and obtain the total per-unit value of the load curve of low-voltage substation i in a day, and then calculate the proportion of the per-unit value of the load curve of low-voltage substation i at each time t in the total per-unit value of the load curve of low-voltage substation i in a day and the daily power consumption E of the low-voltage substation on each day of the specified month. i,w , obtain the initial load value of low voltage level substation i at each moment.

[0184] Specifically, the formula for the initial load value of the low-voltage substation at each time is as follows:

[0185]

[0186] Among them, P S,i,t is the initial load value of low voltage substation i at time t, E i,w is the daily power consumption of substation i on the wth day of a typical month.

[0187] According to the initial load value of the low voltage level substation i at each time, the initial load curve of the low voltage level substation i is obtained.

[0188] In S3-2, an inversion is performed based on the initial load curve of the low-voltage substation and the acquired substation feeder data to obtain a target load curve of the high-voltage substation.

[0189] The process of inverting from a low voltage level substation to a high voltage level substation is similar to the method of inverting from a high voltage level substation to a low voltage level substation in step S2-2, and the process is reversed. Specifically, the initial load curve of the 35KV substation or 10KV substation is obtained, and further combined with the feeder data, the initial load values ​​of all 35KV substations under the same 110KV substation at each moment are accumulated to obtain the target load curve of the 110KV substation, and then accumulated to the superior substation, so as to obtain the target load curve of the 220KV substation and the target load curve of the 500KV substation in turn.

[0190] In S4, the weight of the low voltage substation is corrected according to the user's power purchase data to obtain the low voltage correction weight, and the weight of the high voltage substation is corrected according to the power generation data of the power plant to obtain the high voltage correction weight, including:

[0191] S4-1, obtaining the load value of the target load curve of the low-voltage substation and the load value of the target load curve of the high-voltage substation.

[0192] Among them, the process of obtaining the load value of the target load curve of the low-voltage substation includes: accumulating the load values ​​of the target load curve of the low-voltage substation in a specified month at each moment, obtaining the monthly load value of the low-voltage substation in the specified month, and determining the monthly load value of the low-voltage substation in the specified month as the load value of the target load curve of the low-voltage substation.

[0193] Since the user's electricity purchase data is the monthly electricity consumption of the substation, the monthly load value of the low-voltage substation in the specified month needs to be used when the weight of the low-voltage substation is subsequently corrected through the user's electricity purchase data. Therefore, before correcting the low voltage weight, it is necessary to first accumulate the load values ​​of the target load curve of the low-voltage substation in the specified month at each moment to obtain the monthly load value of the low-voltage substation in the specified month, and determine the monthly load value of the low-voltage substation in the specified month as the load value of the target load curve of the low-voltage substation.

[0194] The process of obtaining the load value of the target load curve of a high-voltage substation includes: accumulating the load values ​​of the target load curve of the high-voltage substation at each moment in a specified month, obtaining the hourly load values ​​of all high-voltage substations at each moment in the specified month, and determining the hourly load values ​​of all high-voltage substations in the specified month as the load value of the target load curve of the high-voltage substation.

[0195] Since the power generation data of the power plant is the actual power generation of the power plant, the hourly load values ​​of all high-voltage substations in the specified month need to be used when the weights of the high-voltage substations are subsequently corrected based on the power generation data of the power plant. Therefore, before correcting the high voltage weight, it is necessary to first accumulate the load values ​​of the target load curve of the high-voltage substation in the specified month at each moment, and obtain the hourly load values ​​of all high-voltage substations in the specified month at each moment, and determine the hourly load values ​​of all high-voltage substations in the specified month as the load values ​​of the target load curve of the high-voltage substation.

[0196] S4-2, calculating the first mean square error between the load value of the target load curve of the low voltage substation and the monthly power consumption of the substation in the target area.

[0197] Specifically, in a specific embodiment of the present invention, the formula for obtaining the first mean square error is as follows:

[0198]

[0199] in, For m o The first mean square error between the load value of the monthly low-voltage substation target load curve and the monthly power consumption of the substation in the target area, where n is the total number of low-voltage substations; The low voltage level substation i is at the mth oMonthly power consumption of the substation in January, The low voltage level substation i is at the mth o Monthly load value.

[0200] S4-3, calculating the second mean square error between the load value of the target load curve of the high voltage substation and the actual power generation of the power plant, wherein the actual power generation of the power plant is the accumulated value of the power generation of the power plant at each time;

[0201] Specifically, in a specific embodiment of the present invention, the formula for obtaining the second mean square error is as follows:

[0202]

[0203] in, For m o The second mean square error between the load value of the high-voltage substation target load curve in the month and the actual power generation of the power plant, T is the mth o The total number of hours in the month, For m o The actual power generation of the power plant at time t in the month, For m o The load value of the high voltage substation at time t.

[0204] S4-4, correcting the weight of the low voltage level substation according to the first mean square error and the second mean square error to obtain the low voltage correction weight; correcting the weight of the high voltage level substation according to the first mean square error and the second mean square error to obtain the high voltage correction weight;

[0205] Specifically, in the above specific embodiment, the formula of the low voltage correction weight is as follows:

[0206]

[0207] The formula for the high voltage correction weight is as follows:

[0208]

[0209] in, is m o Monthly low voltage correction weight, is m o Monthly high voltage correction weight, is m o The first mean square error of the month, is m o The second mean square error of the month.

[0210] After obtaining the first mean square error and the second mean square error, the weight is corrected based on the mean square error. Specifically, according to the value of each mean square error, a model with a smaller mean square error can be given a higher weight, and a model with a larger mean square error can be given a lower weight. The sum of the low voltage correction weight and the high voltage correction weight is 1.

[0211] Specifically, the formula for the sum of the low voltage correction weight and the high voltage correction weight is as follows:

[0212]

[0213] In a specific implementation, if the first mean square error is 3.9 and the second mean square error is 6.3, it can be seen that the first mean square error is greater than the second mean square error, that is, the reliability of the first mean square error is lower than the reliability of the second mean square error. It can be understood that a higher weight can be assigned to a model with a smaller mean square error, and a lower weight can be assigned to a model with a larger mean square error. That is,

[0214]

[0215] In S5, the substation power load curve is determined according to the low voltage level substation target load curve and the low voltage correction weight, the high voltage level substation target load curve and the high voltage correction weight.

[0216] After obtaining the low voltage correction weight for load inversion from a high voltage substation to a low voltage substation and the high voltage correction weight for load inversion from a low voltage substation to a high voltage substation through step S4, a combined inversion method with error suppression is used to obtain the substation power load curve, thereby improving the accuracy of the substation power load curve.

[0217] Specifically, when determining the power load curve of a low-voltage substation, multiply the target load curve of the low-voltage substation by the low-voltage correction weight, then multiply the initial load curve of the low-voltage substation by the high-voltage correction weight, and add the two multiplication results to obtain the power load curve of the low-voltage substation.

[0218] When determining the power load curve of a high-voltage substation, multiply the initial load curve of the high-voltage substation by the low-voltage correction weight, then multiply the target load curve of the high-voltage substation by the high-voltage correction weight, add the two multiplication results, and obtain the power load curve of the high-voltage substation.

[0219] like Figure 5As shown, it is a specific flow chart of the substation power load inversion method based on incomplete public information provided by the present invention. First, the data preparation work for the substation power load inversion is carried out, specifically, including the information of each substation in a specific area, the power generation situation in a specific area, the industrial land area and load density in a specific area, the power purchase amount of users in a specific area, and the shape of the daily power load curve of each industry. Secondly, through the load inversion work from the high-voltage level substation to the low-voltage level substation, and the load inversion work from the low-voltage level substation to the high-voltage level substation, the load curves of substations of each voltage level are obtained. And the correction weights of the two load inversion work are calculated respectively, and the substation power load curves are combined and inverted according to their respective correction weights to obtain the substation power load curve. Thereby, accurate estimation of the substation power load is achieved, which helps to ensure the balance of power and electricity and maintain the stable operation of the power system.

[0220] Embodiment 2:

[0221] Based on the same inventive concept, the present invention also provides a substation power load inversion system 600 based on incomplete public information. The system structure is as follows Figure 6 As shown, including:

[0222] A data acquisition unit 601 is used to acquire incomplete public information of a target area and industry electricity consumption composition data, wherein the incomplete public information includes power generation data of power plants and power purchase data of users;

[0223] The low voltage substation target load curve acquisition unit 602 is used to obtain the initial load curve of the high voltage substation by combining the power generation data of the power plant and the power consumption composition data of the industry, and to perform load inversion from the high voltage substation to the low voltage substation to obtain the target load curve of the low voltage substation;

[0224] The high voltage substation target load curve acquisition unit 603 is used to obtain the initial load curve of the low voltage substation by combining the user power purchase data and the industry power consumption composition data, and perform load inversion from the low voltage substation to the high voltage substation to obtain the target load curve of the high voltage substation;

[0225] The correction weight acquisition unit 604 is used to correct the weight of the low voltage level substation according to the user's power purchase data to obtain the low voltage correction weight, and to correct the weight of the high voltage level substation according to the power generation data of the power plant to obtain the high voltage correction weight;

[0226] The substation power load curve determination unit 605 is used to determine the substation power load curve according to the low voltage level substation target load curve and the low voltage correction weight, the high voltage level substation target load curve and the high voltage correction weight.

[0227] Preferably, the power plant power generation data includes the power generation of the power plant at each moment;

[0228] The user power purchase data includes the monthly power consumption of the substation in the target area; the monthly power consumption of the substation in the target area is accumulated based on the monthly power purchase of users in the target area and the substation feeder data;

[0229] The industry electricity consumption composition data includes the load curve per unit value of different industries at different times on a typical day, and the proportion of electricity consumption of different industries using substations in the target area;

[0230] The formula for the proportion of power consumption of different industries using power supply from substations in the target area is as follows:

[0231]

[0232] K m.i is the proportion of power consumption of industry m using power supply from substation i in the target area, L m.i S is the electric load density of industry m powered by substation i; m.i is the land area of ​​industry m powered by substation i, and q is the number of industry types;

[0233] Among them, substations include high-voltage substations and low-voltage substations.

[0234] Preferably, the low voltage substation target load curve acquisition unit includes:

[0235] A high voltage substation initial load curve acquisition subunit is used to obtain the high voltage substation initial load curve of the target area according to the industry power consumption composition data and the power generation data of the power plant;

[0236] The low voltage substation target load curve acquisition subunit is used to perform inversion based on the high voltage substation initial load curve and the acquired substation feeder data to obtain the low voltage substation target load curve.

[0237] Preferably, the high voltage substation initial load curve acquisition subunit includes:

[0238] The submodule for obtaining comprehensive characteristic indicators of high-voltage substations is used to obtain comprehensive characteristic indicators of high-voltage substations at various times according to the proportion of power consumption of different industries using power supply from substations in the target area, the per-unit values ​​of load curves of different industries at various times on a typical day, and the main transformer capacity data of high-voltage substations obtained;

[0239] The power proportion obtaining submodule is used to obtain the power proportion of the comprehensive characteristic index of the high voltage level substation at each moment in the comprehensive characteristic index of all high voltage level substations at each moment;

[0240] The power plant power generation acquisition submodule is used to obtain the total power generation of all power plants in the target area at each moment according to the power generation of the power plant at each moment;

[0241] The high voltage substation initial load curve acquisition submodule is used to multiply the total power generation of all power plants at each moment by the power proportion to obtain the initial load value of the high voltage substation at each moment, and obtain the initial load curve according to the initial load value at each moment;

[0242] Among them, the formula for the comprehensive characteristic index of the high voltage level substation at each moment is as follows:

[0243]

[0244] G i,t is the comprehensive characteristic index of high voltage level substation i at time t, K m.i is the proportion of power consumption of industry m using power supply from substation i in the target area, P t,m is the load curve per unit value of industry m at time t on a typical day, P S,i is the main transformer capacity data of high voltage level substation i, q is the number of industry types;

[0245] The formula for power ratio is as follows:

[0246]

[0247] k i,t is the power proportion of the comprehensive characteristic index of high voltage substation i at time t in the comprehensive characteristic index of all high voltage substations in the target area at time t, and n is the total number of high voltage substations;

[0248] The formula for the total power generation of all power plants in the target area at each time is as follows:

[0249]

[0250] P G,t n G The total power generation of the power plants at time t, P j,t is the power generation of power plant j at time t, n G is the total number of power plants;

[0251] The formula for the initial load value of a high voltage substation at each moment is as follows:

[0252] P S,i,t=P G,t ×k i,t

[0253] P S,i,t is the initial load value of the high voltage substation at each time, P G,t n G The total power generation of the power plants at time t is k i,t It is the power proportion of the comprehensive characteristic index of high voltage substation i at time t to the comprehensive characteristic index of all high voltage substations in the target area at time t.

[0254] Preferably, the low voltage substation target load curve acquisition subunit is specifically used for:

[0255] Obtain low-voltage substations under high-voltage substations in the target area according to substation feeder data;

[0256] According to the main transformer capacity of each voltage level substation obtained, the proportional relationship between the main transformer capacity of the lower substation and the main transformer capacity of the upper substation is obtained, and the proportional relationship is determined as the power supply ratio of the upper substation to the lower substation;

[0257] According to the power supply ratio of the upper substation to the lower substation and the initial load curve of the high voltage substation, the target load curve of the low voltage substation is obtained;

[0258] Among them, the formula for the power supply ratio of the upper substation to the lower substation is as follows:

[0259]

[0260] k i,x is the power supply ratio of the upper substation i to the lower substation x, P d,i,x is the main transformer capacity of the lower substation x of the upper substation i, P S,i is the main transformer capacity of the upper-level substation i.

[0261] Preferably, the high voltage substation target load curve acquisition unit includes:

[0262] The low voltage substation initial load curve acquisition subunit is used to obtain the low voltage substation initial load curve of the target area according to the industry power consumption composition data and user power purchase data;

[0263] The high voltage substation target load curve acquisition subunit is used to perform inversion based on the low voltage substation initial load curve and the acquired substation feeder data to obtain the high voltage substation target load curve.

[0264] Preferably, the low voltage substation initial load curve acquisition subunit includes:

[0265] The low-voltage substation daily power consumption acquisition submodule is used to obtain the daily power consumption of the low-voltage substation on each day of the specified month according to the product of the monthly power consumption of the low-voltage substation in the target area and the proportion of power consumption on each day of the typical month;

[0266] The low-voltage substation load curve per unit value acquisition submodule is used to obtain the load curve per unit value of the low-voltage substation at each time according to the power consumption proportion of different industries using the substation power supply in the target area and the load curve per unit value of different industries at each time on a typical day;

[0267] The low voltage substation initial load curve acquisition submodule is used to obtain the initial load value of the low voltage substation at each time according to the daily power consumption of the low voltage substation on each day of the specified month and the per unit value of the load curve of the low voltage substation at each time, and obtain the initial load curve according to the initial load value at each time;

[0268] Among them, the formula for the per unit value of the load curve of the low voltage substation at each moment is as follows:

[0269]

[0270] P i,t is the per unit value of the load curve of low voltage substation i in the target area at time t, P t,m is the load curve per unit value of industry m at time t on a typical day, K m.i is the proportion of power consumption of industry m that uses power supply from substation i in the target area, and q is the number of industry types;

[0271] The formula for the initial load value of a low voltage substation at each time is as follows:

[0272]

[0273] P S,i,t is the initial load value of low voltage substation i at time t, E i,w is the daily power consumption of substation i on the wth day of a typical month.

[0274] Preferably, the modified weight acquisition unit includes:

[0275] A load value acquisition subunit, used to acquire the load value of the target load curve of the low-voltage substation and the load value of the target load curve of the high-voltage substation;

[0276] A first mean square error acquisition subunit is used to calculate a first mean square error between the load value of the target load curve of the low voltage level substation and the monthly power consumption of the substation in the target area;

[0277] A second mean square error acquisition subunit is used to calculate a second mean square error between the load value of the target load curve of the high voltage level substation and the actual power generation of the power plant, wherein the actual power generation of the power plant is the accumulated value of the power generation of the power plant at each moment;

[0278] The correction weight acquisition subunit is used to correct the weight of the low voltage level substation according to the first mean square error and the second mean square error to obtain the low voltage correction weight; correct the weight of the high voltage level substation according to the first mean square error and the second mean square error to obtain the high voltage correction weight;

[0279] Among them, the formula for obtaining the first mean square error is as follows:

[0280]

[0281] in, For m o The first mean square error between the load value of the monthly low-voltage substation target load curve and the monthly power consumption of the substation in the target area, where n is the total number of low-voltage substations; The low voltage level substation i is at the mth o Monthly power consumption of the substation in January, The low voltage level substation i is at the mth o Monthly load value;

[0282] The formula for obtaining the second mean square error is as follows:

[0283]

[0284] in, For m o The second mean square error between the load value of the high-voltage substation target load curve in the month and the actual power generation of the power plant, T is the mth o The total number of hours in the month, For m o The actual power generation of the power plant at time t in the month, For m o The load value of the high voltage level substation at time t;

[0285] The formula for low voltage correction weight is as follows:

[0286]

[0287] The formula for the high voltage correction weight is as follows:

[0288]

[0289] in, is m o Monthly low voltage correction weight, is m o Monthly high voltage correction weight, is m o The first mean square error of the month, is m o The second mean square error of the month.

[0290] Preferably, the load value acquisition subunit is specifically used for:

[0291] Accumulate the load values ​​of the target load curve of the low-voltage substation in the specified month at each time to obtain the monthly load value of the low-voltage substation in the specified month, and determine the monthly load value of the low-voltage substation in the specified month as the load value of the target load curve of the low-voltage substation;

[0292] Accumulate the load values ​​of the target load curve of the high-voltage substation in the specified month at each moment to obtain the hourly load values ​​of all high-voltage substations in the specified month at each moment, and determine the hourly load values ​​of all high-voltage substations in the specified month as the load values ​​of the target load curve of the high-voltage substation.

[0293] Embodiment 3:

[0294] Based on the same inventive concept, Figure 7 As shown, the present invention also provides an electronic device, which may be a computer device, a single-chip device, an intelligent mobile device, etc. The electronic device in this embodiment may include a processor, a memory, a transceiver component, etc. The memory, the processor, and the transceiver component are connected via a bus; the memory may be used to store an execution program, and an exemplary execution program may include instructions; the processor is used to execute the instructions stored in the memory. The memory may also be used to store data, which may be called and / or modified when the instructions are executed.

[0295] The processor may be a central processing unit (CPU), or other general-purpose processors, digital signal processors (DSP), application-specific integrated circuits (ASIC), field-programmable gate arrays (FPGA) or other programmable logic devices, discrete gates or transistor logic devices, discrete hardware components, etc. It is the computing core and control core of the terminal, which is suitable for implementing one or more instructions, specifically suitable for loading and executing one or more instructions in a readable storage medium to implement the corresponding method flow or corresponding function, so as to implement the steps of a substation power load inversion method based on incomplete public information in the above embodiment.

[0296] Embodiment 4:

[0297] Based on the same inventive concept, the present invention also provides a readable storage medium, specifically an electronic device readable storage medium (Memory), which is a memory device in an electronic device for storing programs and data. It can be understood that the readable storage medium here can include both built-in storage media in electronic devices and, of course, extended storage media supported by electronic devices. The storage medium provides a storage space, which stores the operating system of the terminal. In addition, one or more instructions suitable for being loaded and executed by a processor are also stored in the storage space, and these instructions can be one or more execution programs (including program codes). It should be noted that the storage medium here can be a high-speed RAM memory or a non-volatile memory (non-volatile memory), such as at least one disk memory. The processor can load and execute one or more instructions stored in the storage medium to implement the steps of a substation power load inversion method based on incomplete public information in the above embodiment.

[0298] Those skilled in the art will appreciate that embodiments of the present invention may be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, the present invention may take the form of a complete hardware embodiment, a complete software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware. Moreover, the present invention may take the form of a computer program product implemented on one or more computer-usable storage media (including but not limited to disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) containing computer-usable program code.

[0299] The present invention is described with reference to flowcharts and / or block diagrams of methods, devices (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the present invention. It should be understood that each process and / or block in the flowchart and / or block diagram, as well as the combination of processes and / or blocks in the flowchart and / or block diagram, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, an embedded processor, or other programmable data processing device to produce a machine, so that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing device generate instructions for implementing the processes in the flowchart and / or block diagram. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in a block or multiple blocks.

[0300] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory capable of directing a computer or other programmable data processing device to operate in a specific manner, so that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture comprising an instruction device, which implements the process Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A function specified in one or more boxes.

[0301] These computer program instructions can also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device so that a series of operating steps are executed on the computer or other programmable device to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing instructions for implementing the process. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The steps for the functions specified in one or more boxes.

[0302] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention rather than to limit its protection scope. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, ordinary technicians in the field should understand that after reading the present invention, those skilled in the art can still make various changes, modifications or equivalent substitutions to the specific implementation methods of the application, but these changes, modifications or equivalent substitutions are all within the protection scope of the claims to be approved.

Claims

1. A substation power load inversion method based on incomplete public information, characterized in that: include: Obtaining incomplete public information and industry electricity consumption structure data of the target area, wherein the incomplete public information includes power generation data of power plants and power purchase data of users; Combining the power generation data of the power plant and the power consumption composition data of the industry, an initial load curve of a high-voltage substation is obtained, and load inversion is performed from the high-voltage substation to the low-voltage substation to obtain a target load curve of the low-voltage substation; Combining the user power purchase data and the industry power consumption composition data, obtaining the initial load curve of the low-voltage substation, performing load inversion from the low-voltage substation to the high-voltage substation, and obtaining the target load curve of the high-voltage substation; The weight of the low-voltage substation is modified according to the user's electricity purchase data to obtain a low-voltage modified weight, and the weight of the high-voltage substation is modified according to the power generation data of the power plant to obtain a high-voltage modified weight; The substation power load curve is determined according to the low voltage level substation target load curve and the low voltage correction weight, the high voltage level substation target load curve and the high voltage correction weight.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The power plant power generation data includes the power generation of the power plant at each time; The user power purchase data includes the monthly power consumption of the substation in the target area; the monthly power consumption of the substation in the target area is accumulated based on the monthly power purchase of users in the target area and the substation feeder data; The industry electricity consumption composition data includes the load curve per unit value of different industries at each time on a typical day, and the proportion of electricity consumption of different industries using substations in the target area; The formula for the proportion of power consumption of different industries using power supply from substations in the target area is as follows: K m.i is the proportion of power consumption of industry m using power supply from substation i in the target area, L m.i is the electric load density of industry m powered by substation i; S m.i is the land area of ​​industry m that uses power from substation i, and q is the number of industry types; The substations include high voltage substations and low voltage substations.

3. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that The combining of the power plant power generation data and the industry power consumption composition data to obtain the initial load curve of the high voltage substation, performing load inversion from the high voltage level to the low voltage level substation, and obtaining the target load curve of the low voltage level substation includes: Obtaining an initial load curve of a high-voltage substation in a target area according to the industry electricity consumption composition data and the power generation data of the power plant; An inversion is performed based on the initial load curve of the high-voltage substation and the acquired substation feeder data to obtain a target load curve of the low-voltage substation.

4. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that The step of obtaining the initial load curve of the high voltage substation in the target area according to the industry power consumption composition data and the power generation data of the power plant includes: According to the proportion of power consumption of different industries using power supply from the substation in the target area, the per unit value of the load curve of different industries at each time on the typical day, and the main transformer capacity data of the high-voltage substation obtained, the comprehensive characteristic index of the high-voltage substation at each time is obtained; Obtain the power proportion of the comprehensive characteristic index of the high voltage substation at each moment in the comprehensive characteristic index of all high voltage substations at each moment; Obtaining the total power generation of all power plants in the target area at each moment according to the power generation of the power plant at each moment; Multiplying the total power generation of all power plants at each moment by the power proportion to obtain the initial load value of the high voltage level substation at each moment, and obtaining the initial load curve according to the initial load value at each moment; The formula for the comprehensive characteristic index of the high voltage level substation at each moment is as follows: G i,t is the comprehensive characteristic index of high voltage level substation i at time t, K m.i is the proportion of power consumption of industry m using power supply from substation i in the target area, P t,m is the load curve per unit value of industry m at time t on a typical day, P S,i is the main transformer capacity data of high voltage level substation i, q is the number of industry types; The formula for the power ratio is as follows: k i,t is the power proportion of the comprehensive characteristic index of high voltage substation i at time t in the comprehensive characteristic index of all high voltage substations in the target area at time t, and n is the total number of high voltage substations; The formula for the total power generation of all power plants in the target area at each time is as follows: P G,t n G The total power generation of the power plants at time t, P j,t is the power generation of power plant j at time t, n G is the total number of power plants; The formula for the initial load value of the high voltage substation at each time is as follows: P S,i,t =P G,t ×k i,t P S,i,t is the initial load value of the high voltage substation at each time, P G,t n G The total power generation of the power plants at time t is k i,t is the power proportion of the comprehensive characteristic index of high voltage substation i at time t to the comprehensive characteristic index of all high voltage substations in the target area at time t.

5. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that: The step of inverting the target load curve of the low voltage substation according to the initial load curve of the high voltage substation and the obtained substation feeder data comprises: Obtaining low-voltage substations under the high-voltage substation in the target area according to the substation feeder data; According to the main transformer capacity of each voltage level substation obtained, the proportional relationship between the main transformer capacity of the lower substation and the main transformer capacity of the upper substation is obtained, and the proportional relationship is determined as the power supply ratio of the upper substation to the lower substation; According to the power supply ratio of the upper-level substation to the lower-level substation and the initial load curve of the high-voltage substation, the target load curve of the low-voltage substation is obtained by inverting; The formula for the power supply ratio from the upper-level substation to the lower-level substation is as follows: k i,x is the power supply ratio of the upper substation i to the lower substation x, P d,i,x is the main transformer capacity of the lower substation x of the upper substation i, P S,i is the main transformer capacity of the upper-level substation i.

6. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that The combining of the user power purchase data and the industry power consumption composition data to obtain the initial load curve of the low voltage substation, performing load inversion from the low voltage substation to the high voltage substation, and obtaining the target load curve of the high voltage substation includes: According to the industry electricity consumption composition data and the user electricity purchase data, an initial load curve of a low-voltage substation in a target area is obtained; An inversion is performed based on the initial load curve of the low-voltage substation and the acquired substation feeder data to obtain a target load curve of the high-voltage substation.

7. The method according to claim 6, characterized in that The step of obtaining the initial load curve of the low-voltage substation in the target area according to the industry electricity consumption composition data and the user electricity purchase data includes: The daily power consumption of the low-voltage substation on each day of the specified month is obtained according to the product of the monthly power consumption of the low-voltage substation in the target area and the proportion of power consumption on each day of the typical month; According to the proportion of power consumption of different industries using power supply from the substation in the target area and the per unit values ​​of load curves of different industries at different times on the typical day, the per unit values ​​of load curves of low-voltage substations at different times are obtained; According to the daily power consumption of the low-voltage substation on each day of the specified month and the per unit value of the load curve of the low-voltage substation at each moment, the initial load value of the low-voltage substation at each moment is obtained, and the initial load curve is obtained according to the initial load value at each moment; The formula of the load curve per unit value of the low voltage substation at each moment is as follows: P i,t is the per unit value of the load curve of low voltage substation i in the target area at time t, P t,m is the load curve per unit value of industry m at time t on a typical day, K m.i is the proportion of power consumption of industry m that uses power supply from substation i in the target area, and q is the number of industry types; The formula for the initial load value of the low voltage substation at each time is as follows: P S,i,t is the initial load value of low voltage substation i at time t, E i,w is the daily power consumption of substation i on the wth day of a typical month.

8. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that: The step of correcting the weight of the low voltage substation according to the user's electricity purchase data to obtain the low voltage correction weight, and correcting the weight of the high voltage substation according to the power generation data of the power plant to obtain the high voltage correction weight includes: Obtaining the load value of the target load curve of the low-voltage substation and the load value of the target load curve of the high-voltage substation; Calculate the first mean square error between the load value of the target load curve of the low voltage substation and the monthly power consumption of the substation in the target area; Calculating a second mean square error between the load value of the target load curve of the high voltage level substation and the actual power generation of the power plant, wherein the actual power generation of the power plant is the accumulated value of the power generation of the power plant at each moment; The weight of the low voltage level substation is corrected according to the first mean square error and the second mean square error to obtain the low voltage correction weight; the weight of the high voltage level substation is corrected according to the first mean square error and the second mean square error to obtain the high voltage correction weight; The formula for obtaining the first mean square error is as follows: in, For m o The first mean square error between the load value of the monthly low-voltage substation target load curve and the monthly power consumption of the substation in the target area, where n is the total number of low-voltage substations; The low voltage level substation i is at the mth o Monthly power consumption of the substation in January, The low voltage level substation i is at the mth o Monthly load value; The formula for obtaining the second mean square error is as follows: in, For m o The second mean square error between the load value of the high-voltage substation target load curve in the month and the actual power generation of the power plant, T is the mth o The total number of hours in the month, For m o The actual power generation of the power plant at time t in the month, For m o The load value of the high voltage level substation at time t; The formula for the low voltage correction weight is as follows: The formula for the high voltage correction weight is as follows: in, is m o Monthly low voltage correction weight, is m o Monthly high voltage correction weight, is m o The first mean square error of the month, is m o The second mean square error of the month.

9. The method according to claim 8, characterized in that The obtaining of the load value of the target load curve of the low voltage substation and the load value of the target load curve of the high voltage substation includes: Accumulate the load values ​​of the target load curve of the low-voltage substation at each moment in the specified month to obtain the monthly load value of the low-voltage substation in the specified month, and determine the monthly load value of the low-voltage substation in the specified month as the load value of the target load curve of the low-voltage substation; Accumulate the load values ​​of the target load curve of the high-voltage substation at each moment in the specified month to obtain the hourly load values ​​of all high-voltage substations at each moment in the specified month, and determine the hourly load values ​​of all high-voltage substations in the specified month as the load values ​​of the target load curve of the high-voltage substation.

10. A substation power load inversion system based on incomplete public information, characterized in that: include: A data acquisition unit, used to acquire incomplete public information of a target area and industry electricity consumption composition data, wherein the incomplete public information includes power generation data of power plants and power purchase data of users; A low voltage substation target load curve acquisition unit is used to obtain the initial load curve of the high voltage substation by combining the power generation data of the power plant and the power consumption composition data of the industry, and to perform load inversion from the high voltage substation to the low voltage substation to obtain the target load curve of the low voltage substation; A high voltage substation target load curve acquisition unit is used to obtain the initial load curve of the low voltage substation by combining the user power purchase data and the industry power consumption composition data, and perform load inversion from the low voltage substation to the high voltage substation to obtain the target load curve of the high voltage substation; A correction weight acquisition unit, used to correct the weight of the low voltage level substation according to the user's electricity purchase data to obtain a low voltage correction weight, and to correct the weight of the high voltage level substation according to the power generation data of the power plant to obtain a high voltage correction weight; The substation power load curve determination unit is used to determine the substation power load curve according to the low voltage level substation target load curve and the low voltage correction weight, the high voltage level substation target load curve and the high voltage correction weight.

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