Method and device for evaluating influence degree of reliability of generator set

Abstract

The invention provides a generator set reliability influence degree evaluation method and device, and relates to the technical field of evaluation. The method comprises the following steps: determining the number of generator sets in a division interval corresponding to each influence factor, determining an unplanned outage frequency occurrence probability taking each influence factor as an unplanned outage reason, and determining an unplanned outage frequency occurrence sub-probability taking each division interval as the unplanned outage reason; the Euclidean distance corresponding to each division interval is obtained through calculation according to the non-planned outage frequency occurrence probability and all the corresponding non-planned outage frequency occurrence sub-probabilities; and according to the number of the generator sets in each division interval and the Euclidean distance corresponding to each division interval, calculating the influence degree of the reliability of the generator sets. The device executes the method. According to the method and the device provided by the embodiment of the invention, the influence degree of the reliability of the generator set can be accurately and quantitatively evaluated.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of evaluation technology, and in particular to a method and a device for evaluating the degree of influence of reliability of a generator set. Background Art

[0002] There are many factors that affect the reliability of generator sets, and the degree of influence of these factors on the reliability of generator sets is difficult to quantify. At present, the industry mainly judges which factors have a greater impact on the reliability of generator sets and which factors have a smaller impact on the reliability of generator sets based on the experience of technical personnel. As a result, the evaluation of the impact of the reliability of generator sets is not objective and accurate enough, and can only be judged qualitatively, not quantitatively. Summary of the invention

[0003] In view of the problems in the prior art, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method and device for evaluating the degree of influence of reliability of a generator set, which can at least partially solve the problems in the prior art.

[0004] On the one hand, the present invention provides a method for evaluating the influence degree of reliability of a generator set, comprising:

[0005] Determine the number of generating units in the divided intervals corresponding to each influencing factor, determine the probability of occurrence of the number of unplanned outages with each influencing factor as the cause of the unplanned outage, and the sub-probability of occurrence of the number of unplanned outages with each divided interval as the cause of the unplanned outage;

[0006] Wherein, each influencing factor is an influencing factor affecting the reliability of the generator set, and the sum of the sub-probabilities of the number of unplanned outages corresponding to the same influencing factor is equal to the probability of the number of unplanned outages corresponding to the same influencing factor;

[0007] According to the occurrence probability of the unplanned outage number and all the occurrence sub-probabilities of the unplanned outage number in all the divided intervals of the corresponding influencing factors, the Euclidean distance corresponding to each divided interval is calculated;

[0008] According to the number of generator sets in each divided interval and the Euclidean distance corresponding to each divided interval, the influence degree of each influencing factor on the reliability of the generator set is calculated.

[0009] Wherein, each of the influencing factors includes the service age of the unit and the capacity level of the unit; accordingly, determining the number of generating units in the divided intervals corresponding to each influencing factor includes:

[0010] The number of generating units in the numerical division intervals corresponding to the service age of the generating units and the capacity level of the generating units is determined.

[0011] Wherein, each influencing factor includes the group to which the unit belongs and the manufacturer of the unit equipment; accordingly, determining the number of generating units in the divided intervals corresponding to each influencing factor includes:

[0012] Determine the number of generating units in the name division intervals corresponding to the group to which the generating units belong and the generating unit equipment manufacturer.

[0013] The determining of the probability of occurrence of the number of unplanned outages with each influencing factor as the cause of the unplanned outage and the sub-probability of occurrence of the number of unplanned outages with each divided interval as the cause of the unplanned outage includes:

[0014] Determine, based on the unplanned outage number record data within a preset time period, the probability of occurrence of the unplanned outage number with each influencing factor as the unplanned outage cause, and the sub-probability of occurrence of the unplanned outage number with each divided interval as the unplanned outage cause;

[0015] The unplanned outage frequency record data includes the influencing factors causing each unplanned outage and the division intervals corresponding to the same influencing factor.

[0016] The Euclidean distance corresponding to each divided interval is calculated based on the unplanned outage occurrence probability and all unplanned outage occurrence sub-probabilities of all divided intervals of the corresponding influencing factors, including:

[0017] The Euclidean distance corresponding to each partition interval is calculated according to the following formula:

[0018]

[0019] in, is the Euclidean distance between the unit non-stop probability corresponding to the j-th partition interval in the K-th influencing factor and the non-stop probability of all units, i is the number of unplanned outages, and n is the maximum number of unplanned outages.

[0020] The method of calculating the influence degree of each influencing factor on the reliability of the generator set according to the number of generator sets in each divided interval and the Euclidean distance corresponding to each divided interval includes:

[0021] The influence of each influencing factor on the reliability of the generator set is calculated according to the following formula:

[0022]

[0023] Among them, E K is the influence degree of the Kth influencing factor on the reliability of the generator set, m Kjis the number of generator sets in the jth partition interval of the Kth influencing factor, k is the maximum number of partition intervals, and m is the total number of generator sets.

[0024] Wherein, after the step of calculating the influence degree of each influencing factor on the reliability of the generator set, the method for evaluating the influence degree of the reliability of the generator set further comprises:

[0025] Arrange each influencing factor in order from largest to smallest according to the calculated degree of influence.

[0026] On the one hand, the present invention provides a device for evaluating the degree of influence of reliability of a generator set, comprising:

[0027] A determination unit, used to determine the number of generating units in the divided intervals corresponding to each influencing factor, determine the probability of occurrence of the number of unplanned outages with each influencing factor as the cause of the unplanned outage, and the sub-probability of occurrence of the number of unplanned outages with each divided interval as the cause of the unplanned outage;

[0028] Wherein, each influencing factor is an influencing factor affecting the reliability of the generator set, and the sum of the sub-probabilities of the number of unplanned outages corresponding to the same influencing factor is equal to the probability of the number of unplanned outages corresponding to the same influencing factor;

[0029] A calculation unit, configured to calculate the Euclidean distance corresponding to each divided interval according to the occurrence probability of the unplanned outage number and all the occurrence sub-probabilities of the unplanned outage number in all divided intervals of the corresponding influencing factor;

[0030] The evaluation unit is used to calculate the influence degree of each influencing factor on the reliability of the generator set according to the number of generator sets in each divided interval and the Euclidean distance corresponding to each divided interval.

[0031] In another aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides an electronic device, including: a processor, a memory, and a bus, wherein:

[0032] The processor and the memory communicate with each other via the bus;

[0033] The memory stores program instructions that can be executed by the processor, and the processor calls the program instructions to execute the following method:

[0034] Determine the number of generating units in the divided intervals corresponding to each influencing factor, determine the probability of occurrence of the number of unplanned outages with each influencing factor as the cause of the unplanned outage, and the sub-probability of occurrence of the number of unplanned outages with each divided interval as the cause of the unplanned outage;

[0035] Wherein, each influencing factor is an influencing factor affecting the reliability of the generator set, and the sum of the sub-probabilities of the number of unplanned outages corresponding to the same influencing factor is equal to the probability of the number of unplanned outages corresponding to the same influencing factor;

[0036] According to the occurrence probability of the unplanned outage number and all the occurrence sub-probabilities of the unplanned outage number in all the divided intervals of the corresponding influencing factors, the Euclidean distance corresponding to each divided interval is calculated;

[0037] According to the number of generator sets in each divided interval and the Euclidean distance corresponding to each divided interval, the influence degree of each influencing factor on the reliability of the generator set is calculated.

[0038] An embodiment of the present invention provides a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium, including:

[0039] The non-transitory computer-readable storage medium stores computer instructions, which cause the computer to execute the following method:

[0040] Determine the number of generating units in the divided intervals corresponding to each influencing factor, determine the probability of occurrence of the number of unplanned outages with each influencing factor as the cause of the unplanned outage, and the sub-probability of occurrence of the number of unplanned outages with each divided interval as the cause of the unplanned outage;

[0041] Wherein, each influencing factor is an influencing factor affecting the reliability of the generator set, and the sum of the sub-probabilities of the number of unplanned outages corresponding to the same influencing factor is equal to the probability of the number of unplanned outages corresponding to the same influencing factor;

[0042] According to the occurrence probability of the unplanned outage number and all the occurrence sub-probabilities of the unplanned outage number in all the divided intervals of the corresponding influencing factors, the Euclidean distance corresponding to each divided interval is calculated;

[0043] According to the number of generator sets in each divided interval and the Euclidean distance corresponding to each divided interval, the influence degree of each influencing factor on the reliability of the generator set is calculated.

[0044] The method for evaluating the influence degree of the reliability of a generator set provided in an embodiment of the present invention determines the number of generator sets in the divided intervals corresponding to each influencing factor, determines the probability of occurrence of unplanned outages with each influencing factor as the cause of the unplanned outage, and the sub-probability of occurrence of unplanned outages with each divided interval as the cause of the unplanned outage; wherein each influencing factor is an influencing factor affecting the reliability of the generator set, and the sum of the sub-probabilities of occurrence of unplanned outages corresponding to the same influencing factor is equal to the probability of occurrence of unplanned outages corresponding to the same influencing factor; based on the probability of occurrence of unplanned outages and all sub-probabilities of occurrence of unplanned outages in all divided intervals corresponding to the influencing factor, the Euclidean distance corresponding to each divided interval is calculated; based on the number of generator sets in each divided interval and the Euclidean distance corresponding to each divided interval, the influence degree of each influencing factor on the reliability of the generator set is calculated, so that the influence degree of each influencing factor on the reliability of the generator set can be accurately and quantifiably evaluated. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0045] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the following briefly introduces the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the prior art descriptions. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative work. In the drawings:

[0046] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of a method for evaluating the degree of influence of reliability of a generator set provided by an embodiment of the present invention.

[0047] Figure 2 It is a structural schematic diagram of a device for evaluating the degree of influence of reliability of a generator set provided by an embodiment of the present invention.

[0048] Figure 3 A schematic diagram of the physical structure of an electronic device provided by an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0049] In order to make the purpose, technical scheme and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention more clear, the embodiments of the present invention are further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. Here, the illustrative embodiments of the present invention and their descriptions are used to explain the present invention, but are not intended to limit the present invention. It should be noted that, in the absence of conflict, the embodiments in this application and the features in the embodiments can be combined with each other arbitrarily.

[0050] Figure 1 FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for evaluating the influence degree of reliability of a generator set provided by an embodiment of the present invention. Figure 1As shown, the method for evaluating the influence degree of reliability of a generator set provided by an embodiment of the present invention includes:

[0051] Step S1: determining the number of generator sets in the divided intervals corresponding to each influencing factor, determining the probability of occurrence of the number of unplanned outages with each influencing factor as the cause of the unplanned outage, and the sub-probability of occurrence of the number of unplanned outages with each divided interval as the cause of the unplanned outage;

[0052] Wherein, each influencing factor is an influencing factor that affects the reliability of the generator set, and the sum of the sub-probabilities of the number of unplanned outages corresponding to the same influencing factor is equal to the probability of the number of unplanned outages corresponding to the same influencing factor.

[0053] Step S2: according to the occurrence probability of the unplanned outage times and all the occurrence sub-probabilities of the unplanned outage times of all the divided intervals of the corresponding influencing factors, the Euclidean distance corresponding to each divided interval is calculated.

[0054] Step S3: According to the number of generator sets in each divided interval and the Euclidean distance corresponding to each divided interval, the influence degree of each influencing factor on the reliability of the generator set is calculated.

[0055] In the above step S1, the device determines the number of generator sets in the divided intervals corresponding to each influencing factor, determines the probability of occurrence of the number of unplanned outages with each influencing factor as the cause of the unplanned outage, and the sub-probability of occurrence of the number of unplanned outages with each divided interval as the cause of the unplanned outage;

[0056] Wherein, each influencing factor is an influencing factor affecting the reliability of the generator set, and the sum of the sub-probabilities of the number of unplanned outages corresponding to the same influencing factor is equal to the probability of the number of unplanned outages corresponding to the same influencing factor. The device can be a computer device for executing the method. It should be noted that the acquisition and analysis of data involved in the embodiment of the present invention is authorized by the user. Each influencing factor may include the service age of the unit, the group to which the unit belongs, the manufacturer of the unit equipment, and the capacity level of the unit.

[0057] Among them, the group to which the unit belongs refers to the management unit that operates and manages the generator set. According to the different management regulations and operation and maintenance strategies of different management units, the group to which the unit belongs will become one of the factors affecting the reliability of the generator set.

[0058] Among them, the unit equipment manufacturer refers to the manufacturer that produces the generator set equipment. Due to the different technical characteristics and product characteristics of different manufacturers, the unit equipment manufacturer is one of the factors affecting the reliability of the generator set.

[0059] The crew service age is denoted as A. The crew service age is divided into three categories according to A1 = [0, 10), A2 = [10, 20), and A3 = [20, ∞), including m A1 、m A2 、m A3 The number of generating units is the number of generating units in the divided intervals corresponding to the influencing factor A, wherein the total number of divided intervals k in the above example is 3.

[0060] The group to which the unit belongs is denoted as B. The units are divided into n1 categories according to the group they belong to, namely B1, B2…B n1 , respectively including m B1 、m B2 …m Bn1 The number of generating units is the number of generating units in the divided intervals corresponding to the influencing factor B, wherein the total number of divided intervals k=n1 in the above example.

[0061] The equipment manufacturer of the unit is denoted as C. The units are divided into n2 categories according to the equipment manufacturer, namely C1, C2…C n2 , respectively including m C1 、m C2 …m Cn2 The number of generating units is the number of generating units in the divided intervals corresponding to the influencing factors C, wherein the total number of divided intervals k=n2 in the above example.

[0062] The unit capacity level is denoted as D. The units are divided into three categories according to the capacity level: D1 = [0, 29.9], D2 = [30, 59.9], and D3 = [60, ∞], which contain m D1 、m D2 、m D3 The number of generating units is the number of generating units in the divided intervals corresponding to the influencing factors D, wherein the total number of divided intervals k in the above example is 3.

[0063] Each influencing factor includes the service age of the unit and the capacity level of the unit; accordingly, determining the number of generating units in the divided intervals corresponding to each influencing factor includes:

[0064] Determine the number of generating units in the numerical division intervals corresponding to the service age of the generating units and the generating unit capacity level, respectively. Referring to the above description, A1 = [0, 10), A2 = [10, 20), A3 = [20, ∞), and D1 = [0, 29.9], D2 = [30, 59.9], D3 = [60, ∞) are the numerical division intervals.

[0065] Each influencing factor includes the group to which the unit belongs and the manufacturer of the unit equipment; accordingly, determining the number of generating units in the divided intervals corresponding to each influencing factor includes:

[0066] Determine the number of generating units in the name division intervals corresponding to the group to which the generating unit belongs and the generating unit equipment manufacturer. B1, B2…B n1 , and C1, C2…C n2 The name is divided into intervals. That is, the name includes the name of the group to which the unit belongs and the name of the unit equipment manufacturer.

[0067] The determining of the probability of occurrence of the number of unplanned outages with each influencing factor as the cause of the unplanned outage, and the sub-probability of occurrence of the number of unplanned outages with each divided interval as the cause of the unplanned outage, includes:

[0068] Determine, based on the unplanned outage number record data within a preset time period, the probability of occurrence of the unplanned outage number with each influencing factor as the unplanned outage cause, and the sub-probability of occurrence of the unplanned outage number with each divided interval as the unplanned outage cause;

[0069] The unplanned outage frequency record data includes the influencing factors causing each unplanned outage and the division intervals corresponding to the same influencing factor.

[0070] The preset time period can be set independently according to the actual situation. For example, the number of unplanned outages within 3 months can be selected as the record data. When an unplanned outage occurs each time, the cause of the unplanned outage can be determined. For example, if the service age of the unit is A and the service age of the unit is 15 years, the number of unplanned outages corresponding to A and A2 is increased by 1 to obtain a new record data. Referring to the above example, the probability corresponding to each influencing factor (including the probability of occurrence of unplanned outages and the sub-probability of occurrence of unplanned outages) is explained as follows:

[0071] The probability of unplanned outages corresponding to the service age A of the unit is shown in Table 1:

[0072] Table 1

[0073] Non-stop times 0 1 2 … n Non-stop probability P(0|A) P(1|A) P(2|A) … P(n|A)

[0074] The description of the sub-probability of the number of unplanned outages corresponding to the service age A of the unit is shown in Tables 2 to 4:

[0075] Table 2

[0076] Non-stop times 0 1 2 … n Non-stop probability <![CDATA[P(0|A1)]]> <![CDATA[P(1|A1)]]> <![CDATA[P(2|A1)]]> … <![CDATA[P(n|A1)]]>

[0077] Table 3

[0078] Non-stop times 0 1 2 … n Non-stop probability <![CDATA[P(0|A2)]]> <![CDATA[P(1|A2)]]> <![CDATA[P(2|A2)]]> … <![CDATA[P(n|A2)]]>

[0079] Table 4

[0080] Non-stop times 0 1 2 … n Non-stop probability <![CDATA[P(0|A3)]]> <![CDATA[P(1|A3)]]> <![CDATA[P(2|A3)]]> … <![CDATA[P(n|A3)]]>

[0081] It can be understood that P(0|A)=P(0|A1)+P(0|A2)+P(0|A3), and other non-stop times are not described in detail.

[0082] For the probability description of other influencing factors, please refer to the description of the crew's service age mentioned above and will not be elaborated here.

[0083] In the above step S2, the device calculates the Euclidean distance corresponding to each divided interval according to the probability of occurrence of the unplanned outage number and all the sub-probabilities of occurrence of the unplanned outage number in all the divided intervals of the corresponding influencing factors. The Euclidean distance corresponding to each divided interval according to the probability of occurrence of the unplanned outage number and all the sub-probabilities of occurrence of the unplanned outage number in all the divided intervals of the corresponding influencing factors is calculated, including:

[0084] The Euclidean distance corresponding to each partition interval is calculated according to the following formula:

[0085]

[0086] in, is the Euclidean distance between the unit non-stop probability corresponding to the j-th partition interval in the K-th influencing factor and the non-stop probability of all units, i is the number of unplanned outages, and n is the maximum number of unplanned outages.

[0087] Referring to the above description, assign K to A, B, C and D respectively, and assign j to 1, 2 and 3, or 1, 2...n1, or 1, 2...n2 respectively, and the calculation results of all Euclidean distances can be obtained. Taking the service age of the crew as an example, the explanation is as follows:

[0088]

[0089]

[0090] In the above step S3, the device calculates the influence degree of each influencing factor on the reliability of the generator set according to the number of generator sets in each divided interval and the Euclidean distance corresponding to each divided interval. The calculation of the influence degree of each influencing factor on the reliability of the generator set according to the number of generator sets in each divided interval and the Euclidean distance corresponding to each divided interval includes:

[0091] The influence of each influencing factor on the reliability of the generator set is calculated according to the following formula:

[0092]

[0093] Among them, E Kis the influence degree of the Kth influencing factor on the reliability of the generator set, m Kj is the number of generator sets in the jth partition interval of the Kth influencing factor, k is the maximum number of partition intervals, m is the total number of generator sets, and all generator sets M (including m units in total) within a certain range are collected. Continuing with the service age of the unit as an example, the explanation is as follows:

[0094]

[0095] Reference E A You can continue to get E B 、E C and E D , no more details.

[0096] After the step of calculating the influence degree of each influencing factor on the reliability of the generator set, the method for evaluating the influence degree of the reliability of the generator set further includes:

[0097] Arrange each influencing factor in descending order according to the calculated influence degree. A 、E B 、E C 、E D The factors are sorted in descending order. The larger the value, the greater the impact of the factor on the reliability of the generator set. The smaller the value, the smaller the impact of the factor on the reliability of the generator set. This can achieve a quantitative evaluation of the impact of different factors on the reliability of the generator set.

[0098] The method for evaluating the influence degree of the reliability of a generator set provided in an embodiment of the present invention determines the number of generator sets in the divided intervals corresponding to each influencing factor, determines the probability of occurrence of unplanned outages with each influencing factor as the cause of the unplanned outage, and the sub-probability of occurrence of unplanned outages with each divided interval as the cause of the unplanned outage; wherein each influencing factor is an influencing factor affecting the reliability of the generator set, and the sum of the sub-probabilities of occurrence of unplanned outages corresponding to the same influencing factor is equal to the probability of occurrence of unplanned outages corresponding to the same influencing factor; based on the probability of occurrence of unplanned outages and all sub-probabilities of occurrence of unplanned outages in all divided intervals corresponding to the influencing factor, the Euclidean distance corresponding to each divided interval is calculated; based on the number of generator sets in each divided interval and the Euclidean distance corresponding to each divided interval, the influence degree of each influencing factor on the reliability of the generator set is calculated, so that the influence degree of each influencing factor on the reliability of the generator set can be accurately and quantifiably evaluated.

[0099] Further, each of the influencing factors includes the service age of the unit and the capacity level of the unit; accordingly, determining the number of generating units in the divided intervals corresponding to each of the influencing factors includes:

[0100] Determine the number of generating units in the numerical division intervals corresponding to the service age of the generating units and the generating unit capacity level. The above-mentioned embodiments can be referred to for explanation and will not be described in detail.

[0101] Further, each influencing factor includes the group to which the unit belongs and the manufacturer of the unit equipment; accordingly, determining the number of generating units in the divided intervals corresponding to each influencing factor includes:

[0102] Determine the number of generator sets in the name division intervals corresponding to the group to which the generator set belongs and the manufacturer of the generator set equipment. The above-mentioned embodiment can be referred to for explanation and will not be described in detail.

[0103] Further, the determining of the probability of occurrence of the number of unplanned outages with each influencing factor as the cause of the unplanned outage and the sub-probability of occurrence of the number of unplanned outages with each divided interval as the cause of the unplanned outage includes:

[0104] Based on the unplanned outage number record data within a preset time period, the probability of unplanned outage number with each influencing factor as the cause of unplanned outage and the sub-probability of unplanned outage number with each divided interval as the cause of unplanned outage are determined; please refer to the above embodiment for description and no further details will be given.

[0105] The unplanned outage frequency record data includes the influencing factors causing each unplanned outage and the division intervals corresponding to the same influencing factors. The above embodiments can be referred to for explanation and will not be described in detail.

[0106] Furthermore, the Euclidean distance corresponding to each divided interval is calculated based on the unplanned outage occurrence probability and all unplanned outage occurrence sub-probabilities of all divided intervals of the corresponding influencing factors, including:

[0107] The Euclidean distance corresponding to each partition interval is calculated according to the following formula:

[0108]

[0109] in, is the Euclidean distance between the unit non-stop probability corresponding to the j-th partition interval in the K-th influencing factor and the non-stop probability of all units, i is the number of unplanned outages, and n is the maximum number of unplanned outages. The above embodiments can be referred to for explanation and will not be repeated here.

[0110] Furthermore, the calculation of the influence degree of each influencing factor on the reliability of the generator set according to the number of generator sets in each divided interval and the Euclidean distance corresponding to each divided interval includes:

[0111] The influence of each influencing factor on the reliability of the generator set is calculated according to the following formula:

[0112]

[0113] Among them, E K is the influence degree of the Kth influencing factor on the reliability of the generator set, m Kj is the number of generator sets in the jth partition interval of the Kth influencing factor, k is the maximum number of partition intervals, and m is the total number of generator sets. The above embodiments can be referred to for explanation and will not be repeated here.

[0114] Furthermore, after the step of calculating the influence degree of each influencing factor on the reliability of the generator set, the method for evaluating the influence degree of the reliability of the generator set further comprises:

[0115] Each influencing factor is arranged in descending order according to the calculated influence degree. The above description can be referred to in the above embodiment, which will not be repeated here.

[0116] Figure 2 FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of a device for evaluating the degree of influence of reliability of a generator set provided by an embodiment of the present invention. Figure 2 As shown, the device for evaluating the influence degree of the reliability of a generator set provided by the embodiment of the present invention includes a determination unit 201, a calculation unit 202 and an evaluation unit 203, wherein:

[0117] The determination unit 201 is used to determine the number of generator sets in the divided intervals corresponding to each influencing factor, determine the probability of occurrence of unplanned outages with each influencing factor as the cause of unplanned outages, and the sub-probability of occurrence of unplanned outages with each divided interval as the cause of unplanned outages; wherein each influencing factor is an influencing factor affecting the reliability of the generator set, and the sum of the sub-probabilities of occurrence of unplanned outages corresponding to the same influencing factor is equal to the probability of occurrence of unplanned outages corresponding to the same influencing factor; the calculation unit 202 is used to calculate the Euclidean distance corresponding to each divided interval according to the probability of occurrence of unplanned outages and all the sub-probabilities of occurrence of unplanned outages in all divided intervals corresponding to the influencing factor; the evaluation unit 203 is used to calculate the degree of influence of each influencing factor on the reliability of the generator set according to the number of generator sets in each divided interval and the Euclidean distance corresponding to each divided interval.

[0118] Specifically, the determination unit 201 in the device is used to determine the number of generator sets in the divided intervals corresponding to each influencing factor, determine the probability of occurrence of unplanned outages with each influencing factor as the cause of unplanned outages, and the sub-probability of occurrence of unplanned outages with each divided interval as the cause of unplanned outages; wherein each influencing factor is an influencing factor affecting the reliability of the generator set, and the sum of the sub-probabilities of occurrence of unplanned outages corresponding to the same influencing factor is equal to the probability of occurrence of unplanned outages corresponding to the same influencing factor; the calculation unit 202 is used to calculate the Euclidean distance corresponding to each divided interval according to the probability of occurrence of unplanned outages and all the sub-probabilities of occurrence of unplanned outages in all divided intervals corresponding to the influencing factor; the evaluation unit 203 is used to calculate the degree of influence of each influencing factor on the reliability of the generator set according to the number of generator sets in each divided interval and the Euclidean distance corresponding to each divided interval.

[0119] The device for evaluating the influence degree of the reliability of a generator set provided in an embodiment of the present invention determines the number of generator sets in the divided intervals corresponding to each influencing factor, determines the probability of occurrence of unplanned outages with each influencing factor as the cause of the unplanned outage, and the sub-probability of occurrence of unplanned outages with each divided interval as the cause of the unplanned outage; wherein each influencing factor is an influencing factor affecting the reliability of the generator set, and the sum of the sub-probabilities of occurrence of unplanned outages corresponding to the same influencing factor is equal to the probability of occurrence of unplanned outages corresponding to the same influencing factor; based on the probability of occurrence of unplanned outages and all sub-probabilities of occurrence of unplanned outages in all divided intervals corresponding to the influencing factor, the Euclidean distance corresponding to each divided interval is calculated; based on the number of generator sets in each divided interval and the Euclidean distance corresponding to each divided interval, the influence degree of each influencing factor on the reliability of the generator set is calculated, so that the influence degree of each influencing factor on the reliability of the generator set can be accurately and quantifiably evaluated.

[0120] The embodiment of the invention provides an embodiment of a generator set reliability impact assessment device which can be specifically used to execute the processing flow of the above-mentioned method embodiments. Its functions are not described in detail here, and reference can be made to the detailed description of the above-mentioned method embodiments.

[0121] Figure 3 A schematic diagram of the physical structure of an electronic device provided in an embodiment of the present invention, such as Figure 3 As shown, the electronic device includes: a processor (processor) 301, a memory (memory) 302 and a bus 303;

[0122] The processor 301 and the memory 302 communicate with each other via a bus 303;

[0123] The processor 301 is used to call the program instructions in the memory 302 to execute the methods provided by the above method embodiments, for example, including:

[0124] Determine the number of generating units in the divided intervals corresponding to each influencing factor, determine the probability of occurrence of the number of unplanned outages with each influencing factor as the cause of the unplanned outage, and the sub-probability of occurrence of the number of unplanned outages with each divided interval as the cause of the unplanned outage;

[0125] Wherein, each influencing factor is an influencing factor affecting the reliability of the generator set, and the sum of the sub-probabilities of the number of unplanned outages corresponding to the same influencing factor is equal to the probability of the number of unplanned outages corresponding to the same influencing factor;

[0126] According to the occurrence probability of the unplanned outage number and all the occurrence sub-probabilities of the unplanned outage number in all the divided intervals of the corresponding influencing factors, the Euclidean distance corresponding to each divided interval is calculated;

[0127] According to the number of generator sets in each divided interval and the Euclidean distance corresponding to each divided interval, the influence degree of each influencing factor on the reliability of the generator set is calculated.

[0128] This embodiment discloses a computer program product, which includes a computer program stored on a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium. The computer program includes program instructions. When the program instructions are executed by a computer, the computer can perform the methods provided by the above method embodiments, for example, including:

[0129] Determine the number of generating units in the divided intervals corresponding to each influencing factor, determine the probability of occurrence of the number of unplanned outages with each influencing factor as the cause of the unplanned outage, and the sub-probability of occurrence of the number of unplanned outages with each divided interval as the cause of the unplanned outage;

[0130] Wherein, each influencing factor is an influencing factor affecting the reliability of the generator set, and the sum of the sub-probabilities of the number of unplanned outages corresponding to the same influencing factor is equal to the probability of the number of unplanned outages corresponding to the same influencing factor;

[0131] According to the occurrence probability of the unplanned outage number and all the occurrence sub-probabilities of the unplanned outage number in all the divided intervals of the corresponding influencing factors, the Euclidean distance corresponding to each divided interval is calculated;

[0132] According to the number of generator sets in each divided interval and the Euclidean distance corresponding to each divided interval, the influence degree of each influencing factor on the reliability of the generator set is calculated.

[0133] This embodiment provides a computer-readable storage medium, wherein the computer-readable storage medium stores a computer program, wherein the computer program enables the computer to execute the methods provided by the above method embodiments, for example, including:

[0134] Determine the number of generating units in the divided intervals corresponding to each influencing factor, determine the probability of occurrence of the number of unplanned outages with each influencing factor as the cause of the unplanned outage, and the sub-probability of occurrence of the number of unplanned outages with each divided interval as the cause of the unplanned outage;

[0135] Wherein, each influencing factor is an influencing factor affecting the reliability of the generator set, and the sum of the sub-probabilities of the number of unplanned outages corresponding to the same influencing factor is equal to the probability of the number of unplanned outages corresponding to the same influencing factor;

[0136] According to the occurrence probability of the unplanned outage number and all the occurrence sub-probabilities of the unplanned outage number in all the divided intervals of the corresponding influencing factors, the Euclidean distance corresponding to each divided interval is calculated;

[0137] According to the number of generator sets in each divided interval and the Euclidean distance corresponding to each divided interval, the influence degree of each influencing factor on the reliability of the generator set is calculated.

[0138] Those skilled in the art will appreciate that embodiments of the present invention may be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, the present invention may take the form of a complete hardware embodiment, a complete software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware. Moreover, the present invention may take the form of a computer program product implemented on one or more computer-usable storage media (including but not limited to disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) containing computer-usable program code.

[0139] The present invention is described with reference to flowcharts and / or block diagrams of methods, devices (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the present invention. It should be understood that each process and / or block in the flowchart and / or block diagram, as well as the combination of processes and / or blocks in the flowchart and / or block diagram, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, an embedded processor, or other programmable data processing device to produce a machine, so that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing device generate instructions for implementing the processes in the flowchart and / or block diagram. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in a block or multiple blocks.

[0140] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory capable of directing a computer or other programmable data processing device to operate in a specific manner, so that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture comprising an instruction device, which implements the process Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A function specified in one or more boxes.

[0141] These computer program instructions can also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device so that a series of operating steps are executed on the computer or other programmable device to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing instructions for implementing the process. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The steps for the functions specified in one or more boxes.

[0142] In the description of this specification, the description with reference to the terms "one embodiment", "a specific embodiment", "some embodiments", "for example", "example", "specific example", or "some examples" means that the specific features, structures, materials or characteristics described in conjunction with the embodiment or example are included in at least one embodiment or example of the present invention. In this specification, the schematic representation of the above terms does not necessarily refer to the same embodiment or example. Moreover, the specific features, structures, materials or characteristics described may be combined in any one or more embodiments or examples in a suitable manner.

[0143] The specific embodiments described above further illustrate the objectives, technical solutions and beneficial effects of the present invention in detail. It should be understood that the above description is only a specific embodiment of the present invention and is not intended to limit the scope of protection of the present invention. Any modifications, equivalent substitutions, improvements, etc. made within the spirit and principles of the present invention should be included in the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for evaluating the influence degree of reliability of a generator set, characterized in that: include: Determine the number of generating units in the divided intervals corresponding to each influencing factor, determine the probability of occurrence of the number of unplanned outages with each influencing factor as the cause of the unplanned outage, and the sub-probability of occurrence of the number of unplanned outages with each divided interval as the cause of the unplanned outage; Wherein, each influencing factor is an influencing factor affecting the reliability of the generator set, and the sum of the sub-probabilities of the number of unplanned outages corresponding to the same influencing factor is equal to the probability of the number of unplanned outages corresponding to the same influencing factor; According to the occurrence probability of the unplanned outage number and all the occurrence sub-probabilities of the unplanned outage number in all the divided intervals of the corresponding influencing factors, the Euclidean distance corresponding to each divided interval is calculated; According to the number of generator sets in each divided interval and the Euclidean distance corresponding to each divided interval, the influence degree of each influencing factor on the reliability of the generator set is calculated.

2. The method for evaluating the influence degree of the reliability of a generator set according to claim 1, characterized in that: Each influencing factor includes the service age of the unit and the capacity level of the unit; accordingly, determining the number of generating units in the divided intervals corresponding to each influencing factor includes: The number of generating units in the numerical division intervals corresponding to the service age of the generating units and the capacity level of the generating units is determined.

3. The method for evaluating the influence degree of the reliability of a generator set according to claim 1, characterized in that: Each influencing factor includes the group to which the unit belongs and the manufacturer of the unit equipment; accordingly, determining the number of generating units in the divided intervals corresponding to each influencing factor includes: Determine the number of generating units in the name division intervals corresponding to the group to which the generating units belong and the generating unit equipment manufacturer.

4. The method for evaluating the influence degree of the reliability of a generator set according to claim 1, characterized in that: The determining of the probability of occurrence of the number of unplanned outages with each influencing factor as the cause of the unplanned outage, and the sub-probability of occurrence of the number of unplanned outages with each divided interval as the cause of the unplanned outage, includes: Determine, based on the unplanned outage number record data within a preset time period, the probability of occurrence of the unplanned outage number with each influencing factor as the unplanned outage cause, and the sub-probability of occurrence of the unplanned outage number with each divided interval as the unplanned outage cause; The unplanned outage frequency record data includes the influencing factors causing each unplanned outage and the division intervals corresponding to the same influencing factor.

5. The method for evaluating the influence degree of the reliability of a generator set according to claim 1, characterized in that: The Euclidean distance corresponding to each divided interval is calculated based on the unplanned outage occurrence probability and all unplanned outage occurrence sub-probabilities of all divided intervals of the corresponding influencing factors, including: The Euclidean distance corresponding to each partition interval is calculated according to the following formula: in, is the Euclidean distance between the unit non-stop probability corresponding to the j-th partition interval in the K-th influencing factor and the non-stop probability of all units, i is the number of unplanned outages, and n is the maximum number of unplanned outages.

6. The method for evaluating the influence degree of the reliability of a generator set according to claim 5, characterized in that: The calculation of the influence degree of each influencing factor on the reliability of the generator set according to the number of generator sets in each divided interval and the Euclidean distance corresponding to each divided interval includes: The influence of each influencing factor on the reliability of the generator set is calculated according to the following formula: Among them, E K is the influence degree of the Kth influencing factor on the reliability of the generator set, m Kj is the number of generator sets in the jth partition interval of the Kth influencing factor, k is the maximum number of partition intervals, and m is the total number of generator sets.

7. The method for evaluating the influence degree of reliability of a generator set according to any one of claims 1 to 6, characterized in that: After the step of calculating the influence degree of each influencing factor on the reliability of the generator set, the method for evaluating the influence degree of the reliability of the generator set further includes: Arrange each influencing factor in order from largest to smallest according to the calculated degree of influence.

8. A device for evaluating the degree of influence of the reliability of a generator set, characterized in that: include: A determination unit, used to determine the number of generating units in the divided intervals corresponding to each influencing factor, determine the probability of occurrence of the number of unplanned outages with each influencing factor as the cause of the unplanned outage, and the sub-probability of occurrence of the number of unplanned outages with each divided interval as the cause of the unplanned outage; Wherein, each influencing factor is an influencing factor affecting the reliability of the generator set, and the sum of the sub-probabilities of the number of unplanned outages corresponding to the same influencing factor is equal to the probability of the number of unplanned outages corresponding to the same influencing factor; A calculation unit, configured to calculate the Euclidean distance corresponding to each divided interval according to the occurrence probability of the unplanned outage number and all the occurrence sub-probabilities of the unplanned outage number in all divided intervals of the corresponding influencing factor; The evaluation unit is used to calculate the influence degree of each influencing factor on the reliability of the generator set according to the number of generator sets in each divided interval and the Euclidean distance corresponding to each divided interval.

9. An electronic device comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, characterized in that: When the processor executes the computer program, the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 7 are implemented.

10. A computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that: When the computer program is executed by a processor, the steps of the method according to any one of claims 1 to 7 are implemented.

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