Carbon reduction transformation decision-making method for underground mine

Abstract

The invention relates to a carbon reduction transformation decision-making method for an underground mine, and the method comprises the steps: building an underground mine model for the underground mine; performing technical evaluation; and making a technical decision according to the underground mine model and a technical evaluation result. The method is used for carbon reduction technology evaluation and carbon reduction technology decision-making in the mine production process; the carbon reduction technology is divided into a quantitative carbon reduction technology and a qualitative carbon reduction technology, and evaluation is performed by using the variation of prediction model parameters and an expert scoring method; the optimal carbon reduction technology decision is obtained by adopting a decision algorithm according to the evaluation result.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of energy conservation and emission reduction in mines, and in particular to a carbon reduction transformation decision-making method for underground mines. Background Art

[0002] As a basic industrial sector that provides energy and raw materials to the industrial system, the mining industry produces about 7.2% of the world's total greenhouse gas emissions. Controlling greenhouse gas emissions from the mining industry is not only a macro demand to meet the challenges of global climate change, but also an objective need for mining companies to control costs and improve economic benefits.

[0003] The existing technologies for calculating carbon emissions from underground mines all collect equipment data from various processes in underground mines, and at the same time combine them with carbon emission models to more accurately calculate carbon emissions during the underground mining stage.

[0004] Existing technologies for carbon reduction technology evaluation generally convert policy measures into quantitative parameters and calculate carbon emission reduction by designing carbon emission measurement models;

[0005] The advantages of existing technologies are: they can effectively predict the carbon reduction effects of carbon reduction technologies;

[0006] The defects of the existing technology are: the current research on carbon emissions from underground mines lacks the requirements for carbon reduction in mines, and there is a method to make quantitative decisions on the specific carbon reduction transformation technologies that should be adopted. Instead, decisions can only be made based on experience after qualitatively predicting the carbon reduction effects, which is very unreliable. Summary of the invention

[0007] In response to the above-mentioned problems, the present invention provides a carbon reduction transformation decision-making method for underground mines, which aims to be applicable to carbon reduction technology evaluation and carbon reduction technology decision-making in the mine production process; to divide carbon reduction technology into quantitative carbon reduction technology and qualitative carbon reduction technology and evaluate them using the change in prediction model parameters and expert scoring method respectively; and to use a decision-making algorithm to obtain the optimal carbon reduction technology decision based on the evaluation results.

[0008] To solve the above problems, the technical solution provided by the present invention is:

[0009] A method for making decisions on carbon reduction transformation of underground mines, comprising the following steps:

[0010] S100. For underground mines, establish an underground mine model;

[0011] S200. Conduct technical assessment;

[0012] S300. Make a technical decision based on the underground mine model established in S100 and the result of the technical evaluation in S200.

[0013] Preferably, S100 specifically includes the following steps:

[0014] S110. In order from top to bottom, the accounting levels are divided into carbon emission areas, carbon emission links, carbon emission processes, and carbon emission equipment;

[0015] S120. Construct an underground mine model, which is expressed as follows:

[0016]

[0017] Where: E is the carbon emission per cubic meter of rock mining process; t is the different mining areas; i is the type of different mining links; j is the type of different mining processes; k is the type of different mining equipment; Δ k The energy consumption per cubic meter of ore rock mined by different equipment; For equipment Δ k The carbon emission factor corresponding to the energy consumed;

[0018] S130. Using S120 to construct the underground mine model, calculate the greenhouse gas emissions generated during the mining process of different underground mines;

[0019] Then, according to the accounting results of greenhouse gas emissions generated during the mining process of different underground mines, corresponding emission reduction measures are proposed.

[0020] Preferably, S200 specifically includes the following steps:

[0021] S210. According to whether the changes in the parameters of the carbon emission prediction model can be quantified before and after the application of the carbon reduction technology, the various carbon reduction technologies are divided into quantitative carbon reduction technologies and qualitative carbon reduction technologies;

[0022] S220. Evaluate the quantitative carbon reduction technology, specifically including the evaluation and calculation of the energy-saving capacity, carbon reduction benefit, technical transformation cost, optimal equipment replacement period, and investment payback period of each of the carbon reduction technologies; S230. Evaluate the qualitative carbon reduction technology.

[0023] Preferably, in S220, the indicator unit of the carbon reduction benefit is CNY / month, which is used to characterize the monthly carbon reduction benefit after the application of the carbon reduction technology; the carbon reduction benefit is expressed as follows:

[0024]

[0025] Among them: Cr m is the monthly carbon reduction benefit of the carbon reduction technology, in CNY / month; P i is the production capacity of the corresponding area of ​​the i-th technology, in tons / month; Cr iis the carbon reduction per unit ore after the application of the i-th technology, in tons CO2 / ton; ρ c The corresponding carbon price is in CNY / ton.

[0026] Preferably, in S220, the energy-saving capability indicator unit is CNY / month, which is used to characterize the monthly energy-saving benefit after the application of the carbon reduction technology; the energy-saving capability is expressed as follows:

[0027]

[0028] Among them: Er m is the monthly energy saving benefit of the carbon reduction technology, in CNY / month; i is the unit ore energy saving after the application of the i-th technology, in tons CO2 / ton; is the price of the corresponding energy type n, CNY / standard coal.

[0029] Preferably, in S220, the indicator unit of the technical transformation cost is ten thousand yuan, which is used to characterize the input cost value of the carbon reduction technology application; the technical transformation cost is expressed as follows:

[0030]

[0031] Where: V s is the residual value of the old equipment, in ten thousand yuan; V o is the original value of the old equipment, in ten thousand yuan; T is the depreciation period of the equipment, which is also the service life of the equipment, in years; β s is the residual value rate, dimensionless.

[0032] Preferably, in S220, the indicator unit of the optimal replacement period of the equipment is year, which is used to represent the period of time when the sum of the depreciation fee and the use cost of a piece of equipment is the smallest; the optimal replacement period of the equipment is expressed as follows:

[0033]

[0034] Among them: K0 is the original value of the equipment; O is the residual value of the equipment when it is updated; λ is the average annual value of the equipment's deterioration; ρ is the average annual value of the carbon emission cost generated by purchasing carbon quota; Y is the total annual average cost of the equipment; T is the number of years the equipment has been in use;

[0035] The indicator unit of the investment payback period is year, which is used to characterize the payback period of the transformation cost of a carbon reduction technology converted according to the established monthly carbon reduction benefit and the monthly energy saving benefit.

[0036] Preferably, S230 specifically includes the following steps:

[0037] S231. Determine the qualitative carbon reduction technology that needs to be evaluated with reference to historical application cases;

[0038] S232. Preliminarily screen the index factors for reducing energy consumption after the implementation of each of the qualitative carbon reduction technologies, and obtain a list of index factors; then prepare a questionnaire based on the list of index factors, and calculate the validity and reliability coefficient of the preliminarily screened list of index factors, which is expressed as follows:

[0039]

[0040] Among them: α is the validity reliability coefficient; K is the number of test questions; s i is the score variation of all subjects on question ith; s x is the variance of the total scores of all subjects;

[0041] S233. Check the validity reliability coefficient of each indicator factor one by one; according to the check result, perform the following operations:

[0042] If the validity-reliability coefficient of an indicator factor falls between 0.7 and 0.9, then this indicator factor is retained;

[0043] If the validity and reliability coefficient of an indicator factor is lower than 0.35, then the indicator factor is rejected and deleted;

[0044] S234. Summarize the index factors remaining after the S232 inspection to obtain an evaluation index system; the evaluation index system includes three primary indicators, namely: technical implementation and application indicators, technical characteristics indicators, and resource and energy conservation and comprehensive utilization indicators; among which:

[0045] Each of the first-level indicators contains multiple second-level indicators; the total number of the second-level indicators is 12; specifically:

[0046] The technical implementation and application indicators include the application scope of the technology, which is used to characterize the scope of application of the energy-saving and emission-reduction technology in underground mines; the output-input ratio of the technology, which is used to characterize the ratio of output benefits to input costs when the energy-saving and emission-reduction technology is actually applied in the mine; the application duration of the technology, which is used to characterize the duration of the energy-saving and emission-reduction technology in the application and implementation process of the mine;

[0047] The technical characteristic indicators include the application and promotion degree of the technology, which is used to characterize the development potential and expansion degree of the energy-saving and emission-reduction technology in the future application of mines; the application stability of the technology; the maturity of the technology application; the industry applicability of the technology; and the policy promotion;

[0048] The resource and energy conservation and comprehensive utilization indicators include the resource conservation of the technology; the resource / energy utilization of the technology; the comprehensive energy efficiency of the technology; the recycling and utilization of technology resources;

[0049] S235. Calculate the consumption reduction scores of each energy-saving and emission-reduction technology using the expert scoring method; specifically, the following steps are included:

[0050] S235-1. Calculate the expert weights for each expert participating in the scoring according to a manually preset expert weight analysis table; the expert weight analysis table includes years of work, years of work score, professional title, professional title score, papers, and paper scores; wherein the years of work and the years of work score are in a one-to-one correspondence, the professional title and the professional title score are in a one-to-one correspondence, and the papers and the paper scores are in a one-to-one correspondence;

[0051] The expert weight is expressed as follows:

[0052]

[0053] Where: i is the expert weight of the ith expert; a i is the score of the said years of experience of the i-th expert; b i is the professional title score of the i-th expert; c i Score the paper of the i-th expert;

[0054] Then, each expert determines the corresponding indicator weight according to the relative importance of each indicator factor to the degree of energy consumption reduction after the implementation of each qualitative carbon reduction technology, and the sum of all the indicator weights is 1;

[0055] S235-2. Experts divide each indicator into multiple levels and assign quantitative values ​​to each level as level values;

[0056] S235-3. Multiply the indicator weight of each indicator factor by the corresponding level value of the level one by one to obtain the indicator score;

[0057] Then, the indicator scores of all the indicator factors of one of the qualitative carbon reduction technologies are added together to obtain the total score of the carbon reduction degree of this qualitative carbon reduction technology;

[0058] S235-4. Calculate the consumption reduction score of each energy-saving and emission-reduction technology one by one, and express it as follows:

[0059]

[0060] Where: P is the consumption reduction score of this energy-saving and emission-reduction technology; N iis the score value of the i-th expert; n is the number of experts participating in this evaluation.

[0061] Preferably, the levels divided in S235-2 include seven levels, from large to small: maximum level, large level, relatively large level, general level, relatively small level, small level, and minimum level; wherein:

[0062] The maximum level corresponds to a 50% reduction in energy consumption, with a score of 1;

[0063] The energy consumption reduction corresponding to the large level is 40%, and the score is 0.8;

[0064] The energy consumption reduction corresponding to the larger level is 30%, with a score of 0.6;

[0065] The energy consumption reduction corresponding to the general level is 25%, and the score is 0.5;

[0066] The energy consumption reduction corresponding to the smaller level is 15%, and the score is 0.3;

[0067] The energy consumption reduction corresponding to the small level is 10%, and the score is 0.1;

[0068] The minimum level corresponds to a 5% reduction in energy consumption, with a score of 0.05.

[0069] Preferably, S300 making a technical decision specifically includes the following steps:

[0070] S310. Construct a technical decision model, which specifically includes the following contents:

[0071] Carbon reduction target: E0, used to characterize the annual carbon reduction target of underground mining enterprises, in tons of CO2 / year;

[0072] Decision variables: expressed as follows:

[0073]

[0074] Where: x i (i=1,2,...,n) is used to characterize different energy-saving and emission-reduction technologies; To correspond to energy saving and emission reduction technology i Carbon reduction capacity, in tons of CO2; To correspond to energy saving and emission reduction technology i The application time is in months; N is the number of energy-saving and emission-reduction technologies, in units; f(E) is the carbon reduction capacity of the carbon reduction combination scheme, in tons CO2 / year;

[0075] Constraints: Expressed as follows:

[0076]

[0077] Z is the input cost of the carbon reduction plan, in ten thousand yuan; Z0 is the maximum limit of the carbon reduction plan investment, which is used to control the cost of the carbon reduction plan combination;

[0078] The solution matrix of each carbon reduction combination scheme is expressed as follows:

[0079]

[0080] Objective function: expressed as follows:

[0081]

[0082] Where: c xi is the investment cost of the i-th technology, in ten thousand yuan; n is the number of carbon reduction technologies that are equipment replacement technologies, in units;

[0083] S320. Initialize x i ;Then initialize E0 and Z;

[0084] S330. Combination allocation a xi , b xi ;

[0085] S340. Calculate annual carbon reduction amount and annual carbon reduction cost;

[0086] S350. Judgment Is it established? Then, according to the judgment result, perform the following operations:

[0087] if If established, execute S360;

[0088] if If not, return and re-execute S330;

[0089] S360. Determine whether Z≤Z0 is true; then perform the following operations based on the determination result:

[0090] If Z≤Z0 holds, execute S370;

[0091] If Z≤Z0 is not true, return and re-execute S330;

[0092] S370. Calculate the total cost Z of the combined technology application combination of this carbon reduction plan;

[0093] S380. Sort and search by minimizing the total cost Z;

[0094] S390. Sort and search by the minimum number of equipment improvement technologies.

[0095] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following advantages:

[0096] 1. Since the present invention can make quantitative decisions, it is suitable for carbon reduction technology assessment and carbon reduction technology decision-making in the mining production process;

[0097] 2. Since the present invention allows the staff to quantify the changes in the parameters of the carbon emission prediction model before and after the application of the carbon reduction technology, the carbon reduction technology can be divided into quantitative carbon reduction technology and qualitative carbon reduction technology, and the changes in the prediction model parameters and the expert scoring method are used for evaluation respectively;

[0098] 3. Since the evaluation results of the present invention are based on quantitative objective data, it is possible to obtain the optimal carbon reduction technology decision by using a decision-making algorithm based on the evaluation results. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0099] Figure 1 It is an overall logic schematic diagram of a specific embodiment of the present invention;

[0100] Figure 2 A schematic diagram of the evaluation index system structure of a specific embodiment of the present invention;

[0101] Figure 3 Schematic diagram of the decision-making process of a specific embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0102] The present invention is further explained below in conjunction with specific embodiments. It should be understood that these embodiments are only used to illustrate the present invention and are not used to limit the scope of the present invention. After reading the present invention, various equivalent forms of modifications to the present invention by those skilled in the art all fall within the scope defined by the claims attached to this application.

[0103] like Figure 1 As shown, a carbon reduction transformation decision-making method for underground mines includes the following steps:

[0104] S100. For underground mines, establish an underground mine model.

[0105] It should be noted that the model construction adopts the "bottom-up" accounting principle of the life cycle assessment method to predict carbon emissions during the underground mining stage.

[0106] In this specific embodiment, S100 specifically includes the following steps:

[0107] S110. In a top-down order, the accounting levels are divided into carbon emission areas, carbon emission links, carbon emission processes, and carbon emission equipment.

[0108] It should be noted that the construction principle of the underground mine model is that the carbon-related links of underground mines include various areas of underground mining. Each area can be divided into stages such as development, mining approval and recovery. Each stage covers various mining processes and corresponding mining equipment; therefore, the above division is made.

[0109] S120. Construct an underground mine model, expressed as follows:

[0110]

[0111] Where: E is the carbon emission per cubic meter of rock mining process; t is the different mining areas; i is the type of different mining links; j is the type of different mining processes; k is the type of different mining equipment; Δ k The energy consumption per cubic meter of ore rock mined by different equipment; For equipment Δ k The carbon emission factor corresponding to the energy consumed.

[0112] It should be noted that the application functional unit for the life cycle assessment of underground mining also needs to be established. Since there are differences in the types of energy and working methods used by equipment in various production processes during underground mining, if the carbon emission calculation results of each process are not based on the same indicators, the comparison of carbon emissions of different processes will be inconsistent.

[0113] It should be further explained that, since all mining work is aimed at mining ore, in order to further quantify and compare the carbon emission values ​​of each mining production process, the present invention chooses to use "per cubic meter of ore rock" as the calculation unit of carbon emissions in the mining process.

[0114] S130. Use S120 to construct an underground mine model and calculate the greenhouse gas emissions generated during the mining process of different underground mines.

[0115] Then, according to the accounting results of greenhouse gas emissions generated during the mining process of different underground mines, corresponding emission reduction measures are proposed.

[0116] S200. Conduct technical assessment.

[0117] In this specific embodiment, S200 specifically includes the following steps:

[0118] S210. Based on whether the changes in carbon emission prediction model parameters can be quantified before and after the application of carbon reduction technologies, various carbon reduction technologies are divided into quantitative carbon reduction technologies and qualitative carbon reduction technologies.

[0119] In this specific embodiment, the quantitative carbon reduction technology and the qualitative carbon reduction technology are shown in Table 1:

[0120] Table 1. Carbon reduction technology table

[0121]

[0122] It should be noted that after the quantitative carbon reduction technology is actually applied on site, the carbon emission prediction model parameters of the relevant process equipment will change, causing changes in the carbon emission capacity of the corresponding links.

[0123] It should be noted that qualitative carbon reduction technology refers to energy-saving technology that has the feasibility of carbon reduction, but it is difficult or impossible to reflect the degree of change in carbon emission capacity through changes in model parameters.

[0124] S220. Evaluate the quantitative carbon reduction technologies, including the energy saving capacity, carbon reduction benefits, technical transformation costs, optimal equipment replacement period, and investment payback period of each carbon reduction technology;

[0125] It should be noted that the principle of S220 is to calculate the difference between the carbon emission prediction model of the corresponding parameter changes before and after the improvement, and obtain the unit ore carbon reduction of this technology, and combine it with the monthly production plan to obtain the monthly carbon reduction, which is then multiplied by the carbon price to obtain the monthly carbon reduction benefit.

[0126] In this specific embodiment, in S220, the indicator unit of carbon reduction benefit is CNY / month, which is used to represent the monthly carbon reduction benefit after the application of a carbon reduction technology; the carbon reduction benefit is expressed according to formula (2):

[0127]

[0128] Among them: Cr m is the monthly carbon reduction benefit of carbon reduction technology, in CNY / month; P i is the production capacity of the corresponding area of ​​the i-th technology, in tons / month; Cr i is the carbon reduction per unit ore after the application of the i-th technology, in tons CO2 / ton; ρ c The corresponding carbon price is in CNY / ton.

[0129] In this specific embodiment, in S220, the indicator unit of energy-saving capability is CNY / month, which is used to characterize the monthly energy-saving benefit after the application of a carbon reduction technology; the energy-saving capability is expressed according to formula (3):

[0130]

[0131] Among them: Er m is the monthly energy saving benefit of carbon reduction technology, in CNY / month; i is the unit ore energy saving after the application of the i-th technology, in tons CO2 / ton; is the price of the corresponding energy type n, CNY / standard coal.

[0132] It should be noted that for energy-saving capacity, the calculation principle is: in the case of factors, the energy saving is obtained by calculating the difference between the corresponding parameters before and after the improvement of each technical application, and the unit ore energy saving of the technology is obtained. Combined with the monthly production plan, the monthly energy saving is obtained, and then multiplied by the energy to obtain the monthly carbon reduction benefit.

[0133] In this specific embodiment, in S220, the indicator unit of the technical transformation cost is 10,000 yuan, which is used to represent the input cost value of a carbon reduction technology application; the technical transformation cost is expressed according to formula (4):

[0134]

[0135] Where: V s is the residual value of the old equipment, in ten thousand yuan; V o is the original value of the old equipment, in ten thousand yuan; T is the depreciation period of the equipment, which is also the service life of the equipment, in years; β s The residual value rate is dimensionless, which is the loss of the value of the equipment. The estimated net residual value rate can be determined by the enterprise according to the industry regulations within the scope allowed by the tax law; in project evaluation, the classified depreciation period clearly stipulated in the tax law should generally be followed, and the comprehensive depreciation period stipulated in the industry can be followed. Due to the large amount of underground operations and the complex working environment, the equipment has a large degree of loss, and the residual value rate is about 10%.

[0136] It should be noted that the value of technological transformation costs can be determined and estimated through formula calculation, market research and expert consultation. Taking equipment improvement technology as an example, the transformation cost is the cost value of the new equipment minus the residual value of the old equipment. The residual value of the equipment represents the remaining value after the original value of the equipment is depreciated.

[0137] In this specific embodiment, in S220, the indicator unit of the optimal replacement period of the equipment is year, which is used to represent the period of time when the sum of the depreciation fee and the use cost of a piece of equipment is the smallest; the optimal replacement period of the equipment is expressed by formula (5):

[0138]

[0139] Among them: K0 is the original value of the equipment; O is the residual value of the equipment when it is updated; λ is the average annual value of the equipment's deterioration; ρ is the average annual value of the carbon emission costs incurred by purchasing carbon quotas; Y is the total annual average cost of the equipment; and T is the number of years the equipment has been in use.

[0140] It should be noted that the longer the equipment is used, the less the average annual depreciation fee (usage fee) will be. However, due to the increasing modernization of equipment, its use cost (including maintenance, maintenance and repair costs, energy loss, equipment accident downtime loss and efficiency loss, etc.) will increase. On the contrary, the shorter the equipment is used, the more depreciation (usage fee) will be allocated each year. Although the use cost of each year is reduced, the sum of the two costs may not be the least. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the years when the sum of the two costs is the least, that is, the best replacement period for the equipment.

[0141] It should be further explained that the present invention is based on the improvement of the deterioration numerical method to calculate the optimal replacement period. This method is based on the assumption that the residual value of the equipment after use, the annual equipment maintenance and repair costs, the fuel and power costs, and the carbon emission costs all increase year by year according to a fixed amount. Under this premise, the aim is to determine the optimal time point for equipment renewal by minimizing the average annual equipment cost as the criterion.

[0142] From the above, we can know that the average annual equipment cost is As T increases, the average annual equipment cost continues to decrease, but the equipment maintenance and repair costs and fuel and power consumption increase. This is called equipment degradation. If this degradation increases by the value of λ each year, the degradation value in the Tth year is λT, and the average degradation value in the Tth year is 0.5λT. As the energy consumption per unit of work increases during the use of equipment, carbon emissions increase. Carbon emission costs are generated to purchase carbon quotas. If this cost increases by the value of ρ each year, then the average carbon emission cost after T years is 0.5ρT.

[0143] It should be further explained that in the previous calculation method, The reason is to minimize equipment costs.

[0144] It should be further explained that in the previous calculation method, If the residual value is not considered, it can also be expressed as formula (6):

[0145]

[0146] The unit of the payback period is year, which is used to represent the payback period of the transformation cost of a carbon reduction technology calculated based on the established monthly carbon reduction benefits and monthly energy saving benefits.

[0147] It should be noted that the payback period is used to evaluate the economic feasibility of carbon reduction technologies.

[0148] S230. Evaluate qualitative carbon reduction technologies.

[0149] It should be noted that for the evaluation of qualitative carbon reduction technologies, the calculation methods of indicators such as input costs and payback period are consistent with those of quantitative carbon reduction technologies. The evaluation of carbon reduction capacity mainly uses application case references, expert scoring methods and other means to quantify indicators such as technology application effects.

[0150] It should be further explained that the expert scoring method is a technique for quantifying qualitative analysis. The process begins with selecting a series of evaluation indicators based on the specific needs of the evaluation object. Then, evaluation criteria are formulated based on these indicators, and representative experts score each indicator based on these criteria based on their own experience, and then the scores are summarized. This evaluation method is based on the expert scoring method, taking into account a weight generated by the expert's experience level. By multiplying its scoring result with its corresponding weight, a corresponding correction can be made to its subjective error.

[0151] In this specific embodiment, S230 specifically includes the following steps:

[0152] S231. Determine the qualitative carbon reduction technologies that need to be evaluated based on historical application cases.

[0153] S232. Preliminary screening is performed on the index factors of the degree of energy consumption reduction after the implementation of each qualitative carbon reduction technology, and a list of index factors is obtained. A questionnaire is then prepared based on the list of index factors, and the validity and reliability coefficient of the preliminarily screened list of index factors is calculated according to formula (7):

[0154]

[0155] Among them: α is the validity and reliability coefficient; K is the number of test questions; s i is the score variation of all subjects on question ith; s x is the variance of the total scores of all subjects.

[0156] S233. Check the validity and reliability coefficient of each indicator factor one by one; according to the check results, perform the following operations:

[0157] If the validity and reliability coefficient of an indicator factor falls between 0.7 and 0.9, then this indicator factor will be retained.

[0158] If the validity and reliability coefficient of an indicator factor is lower than 0.35, the indicator factor will be rejected and deleted.

[0159] It should be noted that, here, we combined literature research and interviewed the experience of evaluation experts to make preliminary deletions and additions to the indicator factors that affect the degree of energy consumption reduction after the implementation of qualitative energy-saving technologies, and then screened the indicator factors. We formed a questionnaire based on the indicator factor list, and checked the reliability and validity of the initial screening list. The reliability is determined by the Cronbach's Alpha coefficient result. When the Cronbach's Alpha coefficient is between 0.7 and 0.9, it indicates a high reliability; when the Cronbach's Alpha coefficient is lower than 0.35, it is a low reliability and needs to be rejected.

[0160] like Figure 2 As shown, S234. The index factors remaining after the inspection in S232 are summarized to obtain an evaluation index system.

[0161] It should be noted that these indicators provide a comprehensive framework for evaluating the effectiveness and potential of qualitative carbon reduction technologies in mines. Technology implementation and application indicators focus on the applicability and risk management of technologies in actual mining environments. Technology characteristic indicators assess the stability, maturity, policy impact, etc. of technologies. Resource and energy conservation and comprehensive utilization indicators focus on the performance of technologies in saving resources and improving energy efficiency. This evaluation system helps to fully understand the practical application value of technologies and take into account the long-term impact of technological development.

[0162] In this specific embodiment, the evaluation index system includes three primary indicators, namely: technical implementation and application indicators, technical characteristics indicators, and resource and energy conservation and comprehensive utilization indicators; among which:

[0163] Each first-level indicator contains multiple second-level indicators; the total number of second-level indicators is 12; specifically:

[0164] The technical implementation and application indicators include the scope of application of the technology, which is used to characterize the scope of application of the energy-saving and emission-reduction technology in underground mines; the output-input ratio of the technology, which is used to characterize the ratio of output benefits to input costs when the energy-saving and emission-reduction technology is applied in actual conditions in mines; and the duration of technology application, which is used to characterize the duration of the energy-saving and emission-reduction technology's effect during the application and implementation of mines.

[0165] The technical characteristic indicators include the degree of application and promotion of the technology, which are used to characterize the development potential and expansion degree of the future application of energy-saving and emission-reduction technologies in mines; the application stability of the technology; the maturity of the technology application; the industry applicability of the technology; and policy promotion.

[0166] Resource and energy conservation and comprehensive utilization indicators include the resource conservation of the technology; the resource / energy utilization of the technology; the comprehensive energy efficiency of the technology; and the recycling and utilization of technology resources.

[0167] S235. Calculate the consumption reduction scores of each energy-saving and emission-reduction technology using the expert scoring method; specifically, the following steps are included:

[0168] S235-1. Calculate the expert weight for each expert participating in the scoring based on the manually preset expert weight analysis table; the expert weight analysis table includes years of work, years of work score, professional title, professional title score, papers, and paper scores; among which years of work and years of work score are in a one-to-one correspondence, professional title and professional title score are in a one-to-one correspondence, and papers and paper scores are in a one-to-one correspondence.

[0169] The expert weight is expressed as follows:

[0170]

[0171] Where: i is the expert weight of the i-th expert; a i is the years’ experience score of the i-th expert; b i is the professional title score of the i-th expert; c i Score the paper of the i-th expert.

[0172] It should be noted that the determination of expert weights is based on the literature survey method. Experts, including professors, associate professors, lecturers, master and doctoral students, can be divided according to their titles, years of work experience, and first or corresponding author papers. The detailed expert weight table is shown in Table 2 below:

[0173] Table 2. Expert weight analysis table

[0174] Years of working experience Years Score job title Job title score paper Essay Scoring >30 30 Professor / Senior Engineer 30 Published papers with impact level I 2.0 20～30 20 Associate Professor / Senior Engineer 25 Published papers impact level II 1.0 10～20 10 Lecturer / Engineer 15 Published papers with impact level III 0.8 1～10 5 Master / PhD Candidates 10 Published papers with impact level IV 0.5

[0175] Then, experts determine the corresponding indicator weights based on the relative importance of each indicator factor to reduce energy consumption after the implementation of each qualitative carbon reduction technology, and the sum of all indicator weights is 1.

[0176] S235-2. Experts divide each indicator into multiple levels and assign a quantitative value to each level as the level value.

[0177] It should be noted that experts divide each indicator into multiple levels and assign quantitative grade values ​​to each level, which are used to judge the level of each indicator in the degree of consumption reduction in the application of energy-saving and emission reduction technologies; since each energy-saving and emission reduction technology is an auxiliary energy-saving measure with limited carbon reduction effect, the carbon reduction range is determined to be 5%-50% through research and according to relevant application cases.

[0178] In this specific embodiment, the levels divided in S235-2 include seven levels, from large to small: maximum level, large level, relatively large level, general level, relatively small level, small level, and minimum level; among which:

[0179] The maximum level corresponds to a 50% reduction in energy consumption, with a score of 1.

[0180] The corresponding energy consumption reduction for the large level is 40%, with a score of 0.8.

[0181] The larger level corresponds to a 30% reduction in energy consumption, with a score of 0.6.

[0182] The energy consumption reduction corresponding to the general level is 25%, and the score is 0.5.

[0183] The energy consumption reduction corresponding to the smaller level is 15%, with a score of 0.3.

[0184] The energy consumption reduction corresponding to the small level is 10%, and the score is 0.1.

[0185] The minimum level corresponds to a 5% reduction in energy consumption, with a score of 0.05.

[0186] S235-3. Multiply the indicator weight of each indicator factor by the corresponding grade value one by one to obtain the indicator score.

[0187] Then add up the indicator scores of all indicator factors of a qualitative carbon reduction technology to obtain the total score of the carbon reduction degree of this qualitative carbon reduction technology.

[0188] S235-4. Calculate the consumption reduction degree score of each energy-saving and emission-reduction technology one by one, and express it according to formula (9):

[0189]

[0190] Where: P is the energy saving and emission reduction technology's consumption reduction degree score; N i is the score value of the i-th expert; n is the number of experts participating in this evaluation.

[0191] Taking the application of hoist variable frequency / cascade / hydraulic coupling as an example, the results of the expert scoring method are shown in Table 3:

[0192] Table 3. Sample results of expert scoring method

[0193]

[0194] Taking the technical training of scraper drivers as an example, the evaluation indicators of various qualitative carbon reduction technologies are shown in Table 4:

[0195] Table 4. Carbon reduction analysis table of qualitative carbon reduction technology

[0196]

[0197]

[0198] S300. Make technical decisions based on the underground mine model established in S100 and the results of the technical evaluation in S200.

[0199] It should be noted that the purpose of carbon reduction plan decision-making is to set the annual carbon reduction amount as the target carbon reduction amount, solve the combination solution of the application effect and application cycle of each energy-saving and carbon reduction technology, analyze and rank the actual input cost of each combination solution, and finally decide on the combination solution with the best carbon reduction capacity and the lowest cost, that is, the lowest-cost energy-saving and carbon reduction technology application plan.

[0200] It should be further explained that in order to build a linear programming model to meet the above requirements, different carbon reduction technology application combinations and the application time of each technology are used as decision variables. According to the monthly carbon reduction capacity and technology investment cost of each carbon reduction technology, constraints are established. The constraints may include that the total carbon reduction capacity of the technology application must meet the annual target carbon reduction amount, the application quantity or proportion of each technology cannot be negative, and the total investment cost of the technology does not exceed the budget. Under the premise of meeting the constraints, the minimum investment cost of carbon reduction technology and the least equipment replacement are the optimization goals.

[0201] like Figure 3 As shown, in this specific embodiment, for this linear programming problem, the SciPy library in Python and the carbon reduction database evaluation index data are used to solve and obtain the best technical application solution.

[0202] S300 makes technical decisions in the following steps:

[0203] S310. Construct a technical decision model, which specifically includes the following contents:

[0204] Carbon reduction target: E0, used to characterize the annual carbon reduction target of underground mining enterprises, in tons of CO2 / year.

[0205] Decision variables: expressed as formula (10):

[0206]

[0207] Where: x i (i=1,2,...,n) is used to characterize different energy-saving and emission-reduction technologies; To correspond to energy saving and emission reduction technology i Carbon reduction capacity, in tons of CO2; To correspond to energy saving and emission reduction technology i The application time is in months; N is the number of energy-saving and emission-reduction technologies, in units; f(E) is the carbon reduction capacity of the carbon reduction combination scheme, in tons CO2 / year;

[0208] Constraints: Expressed as formula (11):

[0209]

[0210] Z is the input cost of the carbon reduction plan, in ten thousand yuan; Z0 is the maximum limit of the carbon reduction plan investment, which is used to control the cost of the carbon reduction plan combination.

[0211] The solution matrix of each carbon reduction combination scheme is expressed as follows:

[0212]

[0213] Objective function: expressed as formula (13):

[0214]

[0215] in: is the investment cost of the ith technology, in ten thousand yuan; n is the number of carbon reduction technologies that are equipment replacement technologies, in pieces.

[0216] S320. Initialize x i ; Then initialize E0 and Z.

[0217] S330.Combination Allocation

[0218] S340. Calculate the annual carbon reduction amount and annual carbon reduction cost.

[0219] S350. Judgment Is it established? Then, according to the judgment result, perform the following operations:

[0220] if If established, execute S360.

[0221] if If not, return and re-execute S330.

[0222] S360. Determine whether Z≤Z0 is true; then perform the following operations based on the determination result:

[0223] If Z≤Z0 holds, execute S370.

[0224] If Z≤Z0 does not hold, the process returns to and re-executes S330 .

[0225] S370. Calculate the total cost Z of the combined technology application combination of this carbon reduction plan.

[0226] S380. Sort and search for values ​​by minimizing the total cost Z.

[0227] S390. Sort and search by the minimum number of equipment improvement technologies.

[0228] In the above detailed description, various features are grouped together in a single embodiment to simplify the disclosure. This method of disclosure should not be interpreted as reflecting an intention that the embodiments of the claimed subject matter require more features than are clearly stated in each claim. On the contrary, as reflected in the appended claims, the invention is in a state of having less than all the features of the disclosed individual embodiments. Therefore, the appended claims are hereby expressly incorporated into the detailed description, with each claim standing on its own as a separate preferred embodiment of the invention.

[0229] The disclosed embodiments are described above to enable any person skilled in the art to implement or use the present invention. Various modifications of these embodiments are obvious to those skilled in the art, and the general principles defined herein may also be applied to other embodiments without departing from the spirit and scope of the present disclosure. Therefore, the present disclosure is not limited to the embodiments given herein, but is consistent with the broadest scope of the principles and novel features disclosed in this application.

[0230] The above description includes examples of one or more embodiments. Of course, it is not possible to describe all possible combinations of components or methods for the purpose of describing the above embodiments, but it should be recognized by those skilled in the art that the various embodiments may be further combined and arranged. Therefore, the embodiments described herein are intended to cover all such changes, modifications and variations that fall within the scope of protection of the appended claims. In addition, with respect to the term "comprising" used in the specification or claims, the word is covered in a manner similar to the term "including", just as "including," is explained as a transitional word in the claims. In addition, any term "or" used in the specification of the claims is intended to mean "non-exclusive or".

[0231] The specific implementation methods described above further illustrate the objectives, technical solutions and beneficial effects of the present invention in detail. It should be understood that the above description is only a specific implementation method of the present invention and is not intended to limit the scope of protection of the present invention. Any modifications, equivalent substitutions, improvements, etc. made within the spirit and principles of the present invention should be included in the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A decision-making method for carbon reduction transformation of underground mines, characterized by: The following steps are involved: S100. For underground mines, establish an underground mine model; S200. Conduct technical assessment; S300. Make a technical decision based on the underground mine model established in S100 and the result of the technical evaluation in S200.

2. The carbon reduction transformation decision-making method for underground mines according to claim 1 is characterized by: S100 specifically includes the following steps: S110. In order from top to bottom, the accounting levels are divided into carbon emission areas, carbon emission links, carbon emission processes, and carbon emission equipment; S120. Construct an underground mine model, which is expressed as follows: Where: E is the carbon emission generated during the mining process of each cubic meter of ore; t is the different mining areas; i is the type of different mining links; j is the type of different mining processes; k is the type of different mining equipment; Δk is the energy consumption of different equipment for mining per cubic meter of ore; is the carbon emission factor corresponding to the energy consumed by equipment Δk; S130. Using S120 to construct the underground mine model, calculate the greenhouse gas emissions generated during the mining process of different underground mines; Then, according to the accounting results of greenhouse gas emissions generated during the mining process of different underground mines, corresponding emission reduction measures are proposed.

3. The carbon reduction transformation decision-making method for underground mines according to claim 2 is characterized by: S200 specifically includes the following steps: S210. According to whether the changes in the parameters of the carbon emission prediction model can be quantified before and after the application of the carbon reduction technology, the various carbon reduction technologies are divided into quantitative carbon reduction technologies and qualitative carbon reduction technologies; S220. Evaluate the quantitative carbon reduction technology, specifically including the evaluation and calculation of the energy-saving capacity, carbon reduction benefit, technical transformation cost, optimal replacement period of equipment, and investment payback period of each of the carbon reduction technologies; S230. Evaluate the qualitative carbon reduction technology.

4. The carbon reduction transformation decision-making method for underground mines according to claim 3 is characterized by: In S220, the indicator unit of the carbon reduction benefit is CNY / month, which is used to represent the monthly carbon reduction benefit after the application of the carbon reduction technology; the carbon reduction benefit is expressed as follows: Among them: Cr m is the monthly carbon reduction benefit of the carbon reduction technology, in CNY / month; P i is the production capacity of the corresponding area of ​​the i-th technology, in tons / month; Cr i is the carbon reduction per unit ore after the application of the i-th technology, in tons CO2 / ton; ρ c The corresponding carbon price is in CNY / ton.

5. The carbon reduction transformation decision-making method for underground mines according to claim 4, characterized in that: In S220, the energy-saving capability indicator unit is CNY / month, which is used to characterize the monthly energy-saving benefit after the application of the carbon reduction technology; the energy-saving capability is expressed as follows: Among them: Er m is the monthly energy saving benefit of the carbon reduction technology, in CNY / month; i is the unit ore energy saving after the application of the i-th technology, in tons CO2 / ton; is the price of the corresponding energy type n, CNY / standard coal.

6. The carbon reduction transformation decision-making method for underground mines according to claim 5, characterized in that: In S220, the indicator unit of the technical transformation cost is 10,000 yuan, which is used to represent the input cost value of the carbon reduction technology application; the technical transformation cost is expressed as follows: Where: V s is the residual value of the old equipment, in ten thousand yuan; V o is the original value of the old equipment, in ten thousand yuan; T is the depreciation period of the equipment, which is also the service life of the equipment, in years; β s is the residual value rate, dimensionless.

7. The carbon reduction transformation decision-making method for underground mines according to claim 6, characterized in that: In S220, the indicator unit of the optimal replacement period of the equipment is year, which is used to represent the period of time when the sum of the depreciation fee and the use cost of a piece of equipment is the smallest; the optimal replacement period of the equipment is expressed as follows: Among them: K0 is the original value of the equipment; O is the residual value of the equipment when it is updated; λ is the average annual value of the equipment's deterioration; ρ is the average annual value of the carbon emission cost generated by purchasing carbon quota; Y is the total annual average cost of the equipment; T is the number of years the equipment has been in use; The indicator unit of the investment payback period is year, which is used to characterize the payback period of the transformation cost of a carbon reduction technology converted according to the established monthly carbon reduction benefit and the monthly energy saving benefit.

8. The carbon reduction transformation decision-making method for underground mines according to claim 7, characterized in that: S230 specifically includes the following steps: S231. Determine the qualitative carbon reduction technology that needs to be evaluated with reference to historical application cases; S232. Preliminarily screen the index factors for reducing energy consumption after the implementation of each of the qualitative carbon reduction technologies, and obtain a list of index factors; then prepare a questionnaire based on the list of index factors, and calculate the validity and reliability coefficient of the preliminarily screened list of index factors, which is expressed as follows: Among them: α is the validity reliability coefficient; K is the number of test questions; si is the score variation of all subjects on the i-th question; sx is the variance of the total score of all subjects; S233. Check the validity reliability coefficient of each indicator factor one by one; according to the check result, perform the following operations: If the validity-reliability coefficient of an indicator factor falls between 0.7 and 0.9, then this indicator factor is retained; If the validity and reliability coefficient of an indicator factor is lower than 0.35, then the indicator factor is rejected and deleted; S234. Summarize the index factors remaining after the S232 inspection to obtain an evaluation index system; the evaluation index system includes three primary indicators, namely: technical implementation and application indicators, technical characteristics indicators, and resource and energy conservation and comprehensive utilization indicators; among which: Each of the first-level indicators contains multiple second-level indicators; the total number of the second-level indicators is 12; specifically: The technical implementation and application indicators include the application scope of the technology, which is used to characterize the scope of application of the energy-saving and emission-reduction technology in underground mines; the output-input ratio of the technology, which is used to characterize the ratio of output benefits to input costs when the energy-saving and emission-reduction technology is actually applied in the mine; the application duration of the technology, which is used to characterize the duration of the energy-saving and emission-reduction technology in the application and implementation process of the mine; The technical characteristic indicators include the application and promotion degree of the technology, which is used to characterize the development potential and expansion degree of the energy-saving and emission-reduction technology in the future application of mines; the application stability of the technology; the maturity of the technology application; the industry applicability of the technology; and the policy promotion; The resource and energy conservation and comprehensive utilization indicators include the resource conservation of the technology; the resource / energy utilization of the technology; the comprehensive energy efficiency of the technology; the recycling and utilization of technology resources; S235. Calculate the consumption reduction scores of each energy-saving and emission-reduction technology using the expert scoring method; specifically, the following steps are included: S235-1. Calculate the expert weights for each expert participating in the scoring according to a manually preset expert weight analysis table; the expert weight analysis table includes years of work, years of work score, professional title, professional title score, papers, and paper scores; wherein the years of work and the years of work score are in a one-to-one correspondence, the professional title and the professional title score are in a one-to-one correspondence, and the papers and the paper scores are in a one-to-one correspondence; The expert weight is expressed as follows: Where: i is the expert weight of the ith expert; a i is the score of the said years of experience of the i-th expert; b i is the professional title score of the i-th expert; c i Score the paper of the i-th expert; Then, each expert determines the corresponding indicator weight according to the relative importance of each indicator factor to the degree of energy consumption reduction after the implementation of each qualitative carbon reduction technology, and the sum of all the indicator weights is 1; S235-2. Experts divide each indicator into multiple levels and assign quantitative values ​​to each level as level values; S235-3. Multiply the indicator weight of each indicator factor by the corresponding level value of the level one by one to obtain the indicator score; Then, the indicator scores of all the indicator factors of one of the qualitative carbon reduction technologies are added together to obtain the total score of the carbon reduction degree of this qualitative carbon reduction technology; S235-4. Calculate the consumption reduction score of each energy-saving and emission-reduction technology one by one, and express it as follows: Where: P is the consumption reduction score of this energy-saving and emission-reduction technology; N i is the score value of the i-th expert; n is the number of experts participating in this evaluation.

9. The carbon reduction transformation decision-making method for underground mines according to claim 8, characterized in that: The levels divided in S235-2 include seven levels, from large to small: the largest level, large level, relatively large level, general level, relatively small level, small level, and the smallest level; among them: The maximum level corresponds to a 50% reduction in energy consumption, with a score of 1; The energy consumption reduction corresponding to the large level is 40%, and the score is 0.8; The energy consumption reduction corresponding to the larger level is 30%, with a score of 0.6; The energy consumption reduction corresponding to the general level is 25%, and the score is 0.5; The energy consumption reduction corresponding to the smaller level is 15%, and the score is 0.3; The energy consumption reduction corresponding to the small level is 10%, and the score is 0.1; The minimum level corresponds to a 5% reduction in energy consumption, with a score of 0.

05.

10. The carbon reduction transformation decision-making method for underground mines according to claim 9, characterized in that: S300 makes technical decisions in the following steps: S310. Construct a technical decision model, which specifically includes the following contents: Carbon reduction target: E0, used to characterize the annual carbon reduction target of underground mining enterprises, in tons of CO2 / year; Decision variables: expressed as follows: Where: x i (i=1,2,...,n) is used to characterize different energy-saving and emission-reduction technologies; To correspond to energy saving and emission reduction technology i Carbon reduction capacity, in tons of CO2; To correspond to energy saving and emission reduction technology i The application time is in months; N is the number of energy-saving and emission-reduction technologies, in units; f(E) is the carbon reduction capacity of the carbon reduction combination scheme, in tons CO2 / year; Constraints: Expressed as follows: Z is the input cost of the carbon reduction plan, in ten thousand yuan; Z0 is the maximum limit of the carbon reduction plan investment, which is used to control the cost of the carbon reduction plan combination; The solution matrix of each carbon reduction combination scheme is expressed as follows: Objective function: expressed as follows: in: is the investment cost of the i-th technology, in ten thousand yuan; n is the number of carbon reduction technologies that are equipment replacement technologies, in units; S320. Initialize x i ;Then initialize E0 and Z; S330.Combination Allocation S340. Calculate annual carbon reduction amount and annual carbon reduction cost; S350. Judgment Is it established? Then, according to the judgment result, perform the following operations: if If established, execute S360; if If not, return and re-execute S330; S360. Determine whether Z≤Z0 is true; then perform the following operations based on the determination result: If Z≤Z0 holds, execute S370; If Z≤Z0 is not true, return and re-execute S330; S370. Calculate the total cost Z of the combined technology application combination of this carbon reduction plan; S380. Sort and search by minimizing the total cost Z; S390. Sort and search by the minimum number of equipment improvement technologies.

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