Hydrodynamic force over-standard flood forecasting and early warning method and system based on coupling meteorology and hydrology

Abstract

The invention discloses a hydrodynamic over-standard flood forecasting and early warning method and system based on coupled meteorology and hydrology, and the method comprises the steps: collecting historical hydrological data of a monitoring station in a research area, screening over-standard flood climate early warning indexes, and constructing an over-standard flood climate early warning index map; constructing a research area watershed topological relation, constructing a flood routing model and a hydrological hydrodynamic forecasting model, and constructing a watershed over-standard flood forecasting scheme system; constructing a meteorological, hydrological and hydraulics coupling basin over-standard flood forecasting model; and solving the watershed over-standard flood forecasting model based on the over-standard flood forecasting scheme system, and performing real-time correction in combination with expert experience to obtain a watershed over-standard flood forecasting scheme which is updated in real time. Compared with a traditional over-standard flood forecasting and early warning method, the method can meet the requirements of a modern disaster prevention, reduction and relief system in the aspects of flood forecasting precision, forecast period and the like.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention relates to a super-standard flood forecasting and early warning method, in particular to a super-standard flood forecasting and early warning method based on coupled meteorological, hydrological and hydrodynamic methods. Background Art

[0002] With the continuous changes in the global climate and the intensification of human activities, the high-density construction of water conservancy projects and urbanization development will inevitably change the water cycle, and the flood process will therefore undergo tremendous changes. The combined impact of extreme weather events and large-scale and intense human activities is the main cause of changes in the basin environment, which has brought new risks and challenges to flood control and disaster reduction and water project scheduling and operation in the basin. In particular, the probability of "black swan" events such as large floods or super-standard floods in the basin has increased. The flood forecasting accuracy and forecast period of traditional methods are difficult to adapt to the needs of the modern disaster prevention, mitigation and relief system. The current flood forecasting scheme system usually adopts a comprehensive method system that combines hydrology and hydraulics, deterministic and stochastic models.

[0003] Based on the basin hydrometeorological zoning, with river control sections and water conservancy projects as nodes, and using historical rainfall and flood sequences, applicable flood forecasting models are selected and calibrated for different zoning zones to form a basin flood forecasting system with a combination of multiple models. In combination with the basin's short-, medium- and long-term meteorological forecasts, basin flood forecasting is carried out. Such a technical system can basically meet the general flood forecasting needs for rivers and reservoirs, but it has obvious shortcomings when it comes to temporary sudden problems faced by super-standard floods in the basin, such as active and passive flood discharge in islands and shoals, flood diversion and flood discharge in flood storage and detention areas, breaching of dikes in low-standard protection areas, breaching of dikes beyond design, sudden bank collapse and breach of barrier lakes.

[0004] The present invention proposes a super-standard flood forecasting and early warning method and system based on coupling meteorology, hydrology and hydrodynamics to solve the above-mentioned problems currently existing. Summary of the invention

[0005] The invention aims to provide a method for forecasting and warning of super-standard floods based on coupling meteorology, hydrology and hydrodynamics to solve the technical problem of forecasting super-standard floods. On the other hand, a system for forecasting and warning super-standard floods based on coupling meteorology, hydrology and hydrodynamics is provided.

[0006] The technical solution is based on the method and system for forecasting and warning of super-standard floods coupled with meteorological, hydrological and hydrodynamic factors, and includes the following steps: Step S1, collecting historical hydrological data of monitoring stations in the study area, screening excessive flood climate warning indicators, and constructing an excessive flood climate warning indicator map; Step S2, construct the basin topological relationship of the study area, construct the flood evolution model and the hydrological and hydrodynamic forecasting model, and construct the basin super-standard flood forecasting program system based on the basin topological relationship; Step S3, constructing a meteorological-hydrological-hydraulic coupling basin super-standard flood forecasting model; Step S4, input the super-standard flood climate warning index map into the meteorological-hydrological-hydraulic coupling basin super-standard flood forecast model, solve the model based on the super-standard flood forecast scheme system, obtain the basin super-standard flood forecast preliminary scheme, and combine it with expert experience for real-time correction to obtain a real-time updated basin super-standard flood forecast scheme.

[0007] According to one aspect of the present application, step S1 further comprises: Step S11, collect historical hydrological data of monitoring stations in the study area, sort the years according to the highest water level, and extract the top n years with the highest water level, where n is a positive integer greater than 5; Step S12, extracting similar features between important climate factors of the selected n years, and screening to obtain super-standard flood climate warning indicators, wherein the important climate factors include: sea temperature, snow accumulation on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in winter, summer monsoon, sunspots, subtropical high pressure and typhoon; Step S13: construct an extraordinary flood climate warning index map based on the extraordinary flood climate warning index of the selected high water level year.

[0008] According to one aspect of the present application, step S2 further comprises: Step S21, collect elevation data of the study area, identify water flow direction and confluence area, extract watershed boundaries, construct confluence path network, identify nodes and temporary nodes, and construct watershed topological relationship; Step S22, constructing a flood evolution model and a hydrological and hydrodynamic forecasting model, collecting historical precipitation data, hydrological data and elevation data of the study area and inputting them into the flood evolution model, obtaining the historical flood evolution of the study area and using it as the input of the hydrological and hydrodynamic forecasting model, solving the hydrological and hydrodynamic forecasting model based on the basin topological relationship, and obtaining the main flood forecasting scheme system of the basin in the study area; Step S23, collect the real-time rainfall, water conditions, engineering conditions, and dangerous conditions of the study area, identify temporary nodes, and dynamically adjust the main flood forecasting scheme system of the study area basin based on the spatial topological relationship of the temporary nodes to obtain the basin super-standard flood forecasting scheme system.

[0009] According to one aspect of the present application, step S22 is further: Step S22a collects historical precipitation data, hydrological data and elevation data of the study area and inputs them into a pre-built flood evolution model to obtain the historical flood water level, flow, inundation range and evolution process of the study area; Step S22b, based on the basin topological relationship, identify the key nodes in the basin, extract the historical flood water level, flow, inundation range, evolution process and key nodes in the basin of the study area and input them into the pre-constructed hydrological and hydrodynamic forecasting model to obtain the main flood forecasting scheme system of the basin in the study area, and the key nodes include: flood control scheduling objects, flood control objects and flood control guarantee objects.

[0010] According to one aspect of the present application, step S23 is further: Step S23a, collecting the real-time rainfall, water, engineering and dangerous situation development of the study area, and identifying the dynamic nodes formed by sudden water events that disrupt the evolution law of conventional floods in the river as temporary nodes; Step S23b, constructing a topological relationship of temporary nodes; Step S23c: Based on the spatial topological relationship of the temporary nodes, dynamically adjust the main flood forecasting scheme system of the basin in the study area to obtain the basin super-standard flood forecasting scheme system.

[0011] According to one aspect of the present application, step S3 further comprises: Step S31, respectively constructing a MIKE SHE model, a TOPMODEL model, a VIC model, a SWAT model, a Xin'anjiang model, and a distributed DDRM model, and using a one-way coupling method to sequentially couple the weather forecast and the MIKE SHE model, the TOPMODEL model, the VIC model, the SWAT model, the Xin'anjiang model, and the distributed DDRM model to obtain multiple hydrological models; Step S32, constructing a plurality of hydrodynamic models respectively, including: a water surface curve model, a one-dimensional Saint-Venant equation model and a two-dimensional Saint-Venant equation model; Step S33: coupling the hydrological model and the hydrodynamic model by a connection method, taking the calculation results of the hydrological model as the boundary conditions of the hydrodynamic model, and obtaining a meteorological-hydrological-hydraulic coupling basin super-standard flood forecasting model.

[0012] According to one aspect of the present application, step S4 is further: Step S41, inputting the super-standard flood climate warning index map into the meteorological-hydrological-hydraulic coupling basin super-standard flood forecast model, based on the super-standard flood forecast scheme system, using the particle swarm optimization algorithm based on multi-model hybrid to solve the model, and obtaining the basin super-standard flood forecast preliminary scheme; Step S42, conduct real-time forecast analysis, combine expert experience analysis and real-time correction of the preliminary plan for forecasting excessive floods in the basin, and obtain a real-time updated plan for forecasting excessive floods in the basin; Step S43: Adjust the warning information based on the latest forecast results and issue a warning according to the warning standard.

[0013] According to one aspect of the present application, step S41 is further: Step S41a, constructing a linear model, a nonlinear model and a dynamic model, and determining basic parameters of the particle swarm and model parameters of the linear model, the nonlinear model and the dynamic model; Step S41b, randomly generate the position and velocity of the initial particles in the solution space, and evaluate the fitness of all particles; Step S41c, setting a fitness improvement threshold, and selecting a model based on the fitness of the current particle; Step S41d, respectively updating the particle positions and velocities of the linear model, the nonlinear model and the dynamic model; Step S41e, repeat the calculation until complete convergence, and obtain the optimal solution and the corresponding fitness value, that is, the preliminary plan for forecasting super-standard floods in the basin.

[0014] According to another aspect of the present application, there is provided a super-standard flood forecasting and warning system based on coupled meteorological, hydrological and hydrodynamic factors, comprising: at least one processor; and a memory communicatively connected to at least one of the processors; wherein, The memory stores instructions that can be executed by the processor, and the instructions are used to be executed by the processor to implement the super-standard flood forecasting and warning method based on coupled meteorological, hydrological and hydrodynamic methods as described in any of the above technical solutions.

[0015] Beneficial effects: the method of forecasting and warning of super-standard floods based on coupled meteorological, hydrological and hydrodynamic factors can be used to accurately control the water level / flow process of flood control nodes when facing the deployment of defense work for super-standard floods in the basin, especially; when super-standard floods occur in the basin, facing a large number of temporary emergency monitoring tasks, a stable and fast information channel is used to transmit, integrate and aggregate massive multi-source heterogeneous data in real time and efficiently; the close relationship between the evolution of floods and the underlying surface of the basin, river channel scouring and silting, etc. is fully considered, while temporary sudden boundaries such as flood discharge in islands, beaches, people's courtyards, bank breaches, and flood storage in flood storage areas are also taken into account, so that the simulation of the super-standard flood forecasting model in the basin is synchronized with the actual flood evolution; in the process of forecasting super-standard floods in the basin, the uncertainties in many aspects such as rainfall conditions, water conditions, and engineering conditions are fully considered, and timely adjustments are made to the phased characteristics of the flood situation as the rainfall and flood development process develops to meet actual needs and solve technical problems in forecasting super-standard floods. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0016] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of the present invention.

[0017] Figure 2 It is a flow chart of step S1 of the present invention.

[0018] Figure 3It is a flow chart of step S2 of the present invention.

[0019] Figure 4 It is a flow chart of step S3 of the present invention.

[0020] Figure 5 It is a flow chart of step S4 of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0021] like Figure 1 According to one aspect of the present application, a method and system for forecasting and warning of super-standard floods based on coupled meteorological, hydrological and hydrodynamic factors is provided, comprising the following steps: Step S1, collecting historical hydrological data of monitoring stations in the study area, screening excessive flood climate warning indicators, and constructing an excessive flood climate warning indicator map; Step S2, construct the basin topological relationship of the study area, construct the flood evolution model and the hydrological and hydrodynamic forecasting model, and construct the basin super-standard flood forecasting program system based on the basin topological relationship; Step S3, constructing a meteorological-hydrological-hydraulic coupling basin super-standard flood forecasting model; Step S4, input the super-standard flood climate warning index map into the meteorological-hydrological-hydraulic coupling basin super-standard flood forecast model, solve the model based on the super-standard flood forecast scheme system, obtain the basin super-standard flood forecast preliminary scheme, and combine it with expert experience for real-time correction to obtain a real-time updated basin super-standard flood forecast scheme.

[0022] The data support for basin-wide super-standard flood forecasts includes, on the one hand, accurate real-time rainfall conditions, water project operation conditions, satellite image remote sensing, river cross-section morphology and other basic information in the basin; and on the other hand, information such as hydrological emergency monitoring elements of sudden events that disrupt the regular evolution of river floods. The massive heterogeneous information sources formed by conventional monitoring elements and emergency monitoring elements need to be collected, selected, and fused through multi-source information fusion technology before they can serve as the basis for driving the basin-wide super-standard flood forecast model.

[0023] In this embodiment, in order to improve the coverage, information volume, and frequency of flood reporting of real-time rainfall conditions in the basin, in addition to setting up stations, the most important ideas and methods should focus on the basin information sharing model, especially for large cross-regional and multi-subject basins. Based on the principles of consultation and sharing, taking into account the interests of the subjects in each district, the member units of the basin should be encouraged to build an information sharing platform through a data exchange system and establish an orderly and stable information sharing mechanism.

[0024] Through the information sharing mechanism, a monitoring system covering rainfall conditions, water conservancy projects, satellite remote sensing, weather radar, model forecasts, etc. covering the river basin is established to basically meet the needs of flood forecasting in the river basin. At the same time, events that disrupt the evolution of river floods, such as flood discharge in islands and beaches, flood diversion and withdrawal in flood storage areas, embankment breaches, and pumping station drainage, need to be deployed in advance. Through preliminary investigations, basic information on various weak nodes is collected, and a monitoring plan for super-standard floods in the river basin is formulated. Various advanced monitoring equipment is equipped, and the monitoring scope and elements are clarified. According to the evolution, changes and development of the flood, the monitoring objects, elements, methods and means are adjusted in a timely manner. Various technical analysis and technical support capabilities are flexibly deployed to ensure that emergency monitoring data is timely and accurately measured and reported, so as to provide data support for the forecast of super-standard floods in the river basin.

[0025] like Figure 2 As shown, according to one aspect of the present application, the step S1 is further: Step S11, collect historical hydrological data of monitoring stations in the study area, sort the years according to the highest water level, and extract the top n years with the highest water level, where n is a positive integer greater than 5; Step S12, extracting similar features between important climate factors of the selected n years, and screening to obtain super-standard flood climate warning indicators, wherein the important climate factors include: sea temperature, snow accumulation on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in winter, summer monsoon, sunspots, subtropical high pressure and typhoon; Step S13: construct an extraordinary flood climate warning index map based on the extraordinary flood climate warning index of the selected high water level year.

[0026] In a certain embodiment, specifically: The top six years with the highest water level at Jianli Station were selected for analysis, namely 1998, 1999, 2002, 1996, 1983 and 1954. The similar characteristics of important climate factors such as sea temperature, winter snow cover on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, summer monsoon, sunspots, subtropical high pressure and typhoon abnormal signals in these years were analyzed to screen out the super-standard flood climate indicators. Through analysis, we found that the sea temperature in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific is generally in the "El Nino" or neutral warm state, so the sea temperature is generally warm, the snow cover on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in winter is mainly more, the East Asian summer monsoon is mostly weak, the intensity and area of ​​the subtropical high pressure in summer are not obvious, but the ridge line is mainly located in the south, and the westward extension ridge point is mainly in the west. Sunspots are generally in extreme years or near extreme years, and summer typhoons also have obvious abnormal characteristics, with fewer typhoons generated and the generation time being mainly late, fewer typhoons landing and the landing time being mainly late. Constructing an excessive flood climate early warning indicator system: In the early stage of the flood year, climate factors such as sea temperature, snow accumulation on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and sunspots will show certain abnormal characteristics, which is conducive to a weak summer monsoon, the westward extension ridge point of the summer subtropical high pressure, the ridge line position to the south, and fewer typhoons generated, which are conducive to the overall southward location of the main rain belt in summer.

[0027] like Figure 3 As shown, according to one aspect of the present application, the step S2 is further: Step S21, collect elevation data of the study area, identify water flow direction and confluence area, extract watershed boundaries, construct confluence path network, identify nodes and temporary nodes, and construct watershed topological relationship; Step S22, constructing a flood evolution model and a hydrological and hydrodynamic forecasting model, collecting historical precipitation data, hydrological data and elevation data of the study area and inputting them into the flood evolution model, obtaining the historical flood evolution of the study area and using it as the input of the hydrological and hydrodynamic forecasting model, solving the hydrological and hydrodynamic forecasting model based on the basin topological relationship, and obtaining the main flood forecasting scheme system of the basin in the study area; Step S23, collect the real-time rainfall, water conditions, engineering conditions, and dangerous conditions of the study area, identify temporary nodes, and dynamically adjust the main flood forecasting scheme system of the study area basin based on the spatial topological relationship of the temporary nodes to obtain the basin super-standard flood forecasting scheme system.

[0028] In the basin hydrological simulation, in order to consider the impact of uneven spatial distribution of rainfall and the spatial differences of the basin underlying surface, the flood forecasting scheme system usually adopts a forecasting scheme system construction mode that combines meteorology with sub-basin division, and combines sub-basin runoff with river confluence. There is a strict topological relationship between the nodes of each unit of the large basin scheme system. The topological relationship conforms to the propagation law of flood evolution in rivers, lakes and reservoirs. The nodes are determined by links. When facing super-standard floods, the node system divided according to the basin topological relationship is difficult to fully cover the key nodes in the basin, such as flood control scheduling objects, flood control objects, and flood protection objects. Therefore, the key control nodes in the region must be fully considered when dividing the basin and constructing the scheme system. In addition, after determining the nodes of various objects, the forecasting scheme system formed is generally a static relationship. When super-standard floods occur in the basin, some sudden water events that destroy the evolution law of conventional floods in the river channel constitute dynamic nodes, which are temporary, random and unpredictable. Such complex hydraulic elements bring great uncertainty to the forecast of super-standard floods in the basin. Therefore, when constructing the forecasting scheme system, it is necessary to fully consider the key control nodes of the basin on the basis of the basin topological relationship and build the basin's main flood forecasting scheme system. At the same time, based on the basin's real-time rainfall, water conditions, engineering conditions, and dangerous conditions, the forecasting scheme system should be dynamically adjusted on the basis of the main flood forecasting scheme system, relying on the model method library and the spatial topological relationship of temporary nodes to meet the basin's super-standard flood forecasting needs.

[0029] According to one aspect of the present application, step S22 is further: Step S22a collects historical precipitation data, hydrological data and elevation data of the study area and inputs them into a pre-built flood evolution model to obtain the historical flood water level, flow, inundation range and evolution process of the study area; Step S22b, based on the basin topological relationship, identify the key nodes in the basin, extract the historical flood water level, flow, inundation range, evolution process and key nodes in the basin of the study area and input them into the pre-constructed hydrological and hydrodynamic forecasting model to obtain the main flood forecasting scheme system of the basin in the study area, and the key nodes include: flood control scheduling objects, flood control objects and flood control guarantee objects.

[0030] According to one aspect of the present application, step S23 is further: Step S23a, collecting the real-time rainfall, water, engineering and dangerous situation development of the study area, and identifying the dynamic nodes formed by sudden water events that disrupt the evolution law of conventional floods in the river as temporary nodes; Step S23b, constructing a topological relationship of temporary nodes; Step S23c: Based on the spatial topological relationship of the temporary nodes, dynamically adjust the main flood forecasting scheme system of the basin in the study area to obtain the basin super-standard flood forecasting scheme system.

[0031] like Figure 4 As shown, according to one aspect of the present application, step S3 is further: Step S31, respectively constructing a MIKE SHE model, a TOPMODEL model, a VIC model, a SWAT model, a Xin'anjiang model, and a distributed DDRM model, and using a one-way coupling method to sequentially couple the weather forecast and the MIKE SHE model, the TOPMODEL model, the VIC model, the SWAT model, the Xin'anjiang model, and the distributed DDRM model to obtain multiple hydrological models; Commonly used distributed models mainly include MIKE SHE model, TOPMODEL model, VIC model, SWAT model, Xinanjiang model, and distributed DDRM model. In this embodiment, the above six distributed models are used to provide model selection for the later application of basin super-standard flood forecasting technology research; As a typical representative of distributed hydrological models based on physical processes, the MIKE SHE model can simulate and calculate the main hydrological processes at independent time and space scales. Compared with other models, the biggest advantage of the MIKE SHE model is that it effectively couples surface water and groundwater. It is widely used in the analysis, planning and management of water resources and ecological and environmental issues related to surface water and groundwater, such as watershed management and planning, irrigation and drainage, water supply design and management optimization, wetland management and restoration, ecological impact assessment, groundwater management, pollutant research on waste treatment, impact research on land use and climate change, impact research on agricultural activities, etc. It is rarely used in the field of flood forecasting. The main advantage of TOPMODEL is that it takes into account the influence of basin topography, landform, soil and other underlying surface factors on runoff formation, and can simulate daily runoff and secondary floods. The runoff generation mechanism of the model is full storage runoff, and it has higher accuracy in humid and semi-humid areas. As a large-scale distributed hydrological model, the VIC model takes into account the water and energy budget processes between land and air, the heterogeneity of ground vegetation types within the subgrid, the spatial distribution heterogeneity of soil water storage capacity, the nonlinearity of base flow retreat, and the impact of mountainous terrain on rainfall and temperature. The SWAT model is also a large-scale basin distributed model with a strong physical foundation. It can use the spatial data information provided by GIS and RS to simulate the water quantity and quality of surface water and groundwater, and predict the long-term impact of land management measures on runoff, sediment load and nutrient loss in large and complex basins with various soil types, land use and management conditions. It is mainly used in pollutant migration, soil erosion and other aspects. The time scale of the SWAT model is large, and the main time units are days, months and years. The accuracy of daily simulation of rainfall runoff is not ideal, so it cannot be used in flood forecasting with high requirements for accuracy and time period; The Xin'anjiang model is a rainfall-runoff basin model. The model itself has no strict restrictions on the time scale and basin spatial scale and has strong adaptability. The model can simulate rainfall runoff. The Xin'anjiang model based on the DEM grid takes into account the uneven spatial and temporal distribution of the underlying surface and rainfall. In addition, the openness of the Xin'anjiang model's program code can be coupled with various weather and sediment models, and can be applied to the research of soil erosion, climate change and other fields; The distributed DDRM model has simple structure and formula, clear physical principles, and fewer model parameters, making it easy to develop programs and calibrate parameters.

[0032] Hydro-meteorological coupling usually uses a one-way coupling method to couple model forecast products with hydrological models, that is, the output of the model drives the hydrological model. In a certain embodiment, if the spatial resolution of the output grid points of the multi-model precipitation ensemble forecast product is fine, the model output grid points in the study basin or hydrological model grid can be directly screened out, and after unified processing, they are used as the input of the hydrological model; if the spatial resolution of the output grid points of the precipitation product is coarse, the optimized interpolation method is selected to interpolate the meteorological elements of the precipitation product grid points to each station in the surface rainfall station network, and the surface rainfall calculation scheme is used to obtain the surface average meteorological element forecast value, which is used as the input of the hydrological model after unified processing of the time period.

[0033] Step S32, constructing a plurality of hydrodynamic models respectively, including: a water surface curve model, a one-dimensional Saint-Venant equation model and a two-dimensional Saint-Venant equation model; In this embodiment, a water surface curve model is selected for water surface analysis of steady river flow to provide flood water level and flow velocity information. The one-dimensional Saint-Venant equation model is suitable for describing flood characteristics of river-type unsteady flow, and the two-dimensional Saint-Venant equation model is applied to flood evolution in flood storage areas.

[0034] Step S33: coupling the hydrological model and the hydrodynamic model by a connection method, taking the calculation results of the hydrological model as the boundary conditions of the hydrodynamic model, and obtaining a meteorological-hydrological-hydraulic coupling basin super-standard flood forecasting model.

[0035] like Figure 5 As shown, according to one aspect of the present application, step S4 is further: Step S41, inputting the super-standard flood climate warning index map into the meteorological-hydrological-hydraulic coupling basin super-standard flood forecast model, based on the super-standard flood forecast scheme system, using the particle swarm optimization algorithm based on multi-model hybrid to solve the model, and obtaining the basin super-standard flood forecast preliminary scheme; Step S42, conduct real-time forecast analysis, combine expert experience analysis and real-time correction of the preliminary plan for forecasting excessive floods in the basin, and obtain a real-time updated plan for forecasting excessive floods in the basin; Step S43: Adjust the warning information based on the latest forecast results and issue a warning according to the warning standard.

[0036] According to one aspect of the present application, step S41 is further: Step S41a, constructing a linear model, a nonlinear model and a dynamic model, and determining basic parameters of the particle swarm and model parameters of the linear model, the nonlinear model and the dynamic model; Step S41b, randomly generate the position and velocity of the initial particles in the solution space, and evaluate the fitness of all particles; Step S41c, setting a fitness improvement threshold, and selecting a model based on the fitness of the current particle; Step S41d, respectively updating the particle positions and velocities of the linear model, the nonlinear model and the dynamic model; Step S41e, repeat the calculation until complete convergence, and obtain the optimal solution and the corresponding fitness value, that is, the preliminary plan for forecasting super-standard floods in the basin.

[0037] The particle swarm optimization algorithm based on multi-model hybrid is a method that combines multiple optimization models with traditional particle optimization algorithms. It can improve the performance, flexibility and adaptability of the algorithm in solving various types of problems through different models.

[0038] Particle swarm optimization is an optimization algorithm based on swarm intelligence. It imitates the foraging behavior of bird flocks to solve problems and finds the optimal solution by updating the position and speed of particles in the search space. However, when facing nonlinear, complex and dynamic problems, it will show slow convergence and easy to fall into the local optimal solution. In this embodiment, the core idea of ​​multi-model mixing is introduced to select the most appropriate optimization model based on the characteristics of the problem and the current progress dynamics, so as to improve the search efficiency and the quality of the solution, and can combine the advantages of different models to improve the overall prediction accuracy, avoiding the common particle swarm optimization algorithm when only considering a single model, which cannot fully reflect the complex watershed process and feedback mechanism; At the same time, in complex parameter spaces, the multi-model hybrid particle swarm optimization algorithm can simultaneously optimize the parameters of multiple models, increase the diversity of particles and search strategies, improve the ability of global search, and avoid falling into local optimality; The multi-model hybrid strategy allows the selection of the most suitable model or multiple models for joint prediction in different situations. When the meteorological and hydrological conditions in the basin change, the participating models can be dynamically adjusted to ensure the adaptability and flexibility of the algorithm. In the multi-model hybrid, the models can share information and use their advantages in specific situations to achieve information complementarity and improve the accuracy of the overall prediction.

[0039] Meteorological and hydrological processes often involve complex nonlinear and time-varying characteristics. At the same time, in the simulation of hydrology and hydraulics, meteorological, soil moisture and topographic factors interact with each other in a complex manner. Only by coupling multiple models and accurately adjusting and effectively combining them according to changes in basin characteristics and meteorological conditions can effective simulation and prediction be achieved. Therefore, in this embodiment, a particle swarm optimization algorithm based on multi-model mixing is used to solve the meteorological-hydrological-hydraulic coupling basin super-standard flood forecasting model, which can improve accuracy, enhance search capabilities and improve model stability.

[0040] According to another aspect of the present application, there is provided a super-standard flood forecasting and warning system based on coupled meteorological, hydrological and hydrodynamic factors, characterized in that it includes: at least one processor; and a memory communicatively connected to at least one of the processors; wherein, The memory stores instructions executable by the processor, and the instructions are used to be executed by the processor to implement any of the above-mentioned methods for forecasting and warning of super-standard floods based on coupled meteorological, hydrological and hydrodynamic methods.

[0041] The preferred embodiments of the present invention are described in detail above; however, the present invention is not limited to the specific details in the above embodiments. Within the technical concept of the present invention, various equivalent transformations can be made to the technical solutions of the present invention, and these equivalent transformations all belong to the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. Based on the coupled meteorological, hydrological and hydrodynamic super-standard flood forecasting and early warning method, it is characterized by: The steps include: Step S1, collecting historical hydrological data of monitoring stations in the study area, screening excessive flood climate warning indicators, and constructing an excessive flood climate warning indicator map; Step S2, construct the basin topological relationship of the study area, construct the flood evolution model and the hydrological and hydrodynamic forecasting model, and construct the basin super-standard flood forecasting program system based on the basin topological relationship; Step S3, constructing a meteorological-hydrological-hydraulic coupling basin super-standard flood forecasting model; Step S4, input the super-standard flood climate warning index map into the meteorological-hydrological-hydraulic coupling basin super-standard flood forecast model, solve the model based on the super-standard flood forecast scheme system, obtain the basin super-standard flood forecast preliminary scheme, and combine it with expert experience for real-time correction to obtain a real-time updated basin super-standard flood forecast scheme.

2. The method for forecasting and warning of super-standard floods based on coupled meteorological, hydrological and hydrodynamic factors according to claim 1, characterized in that: The step S1 is further as follows: Step S11, collect historical hydrological data of monitoring stations in the study area, sort the years according to the highest water level, and extract the top n years with the highest water level, where n is a positive integer greater than 5; Step S12, extracting similar features between important climate factors of the selected n years, and screening to obtain super-standard flood climate warning indicators, wherein the important climate factors include: sea temperature, snow accumulation on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in winter, summer monsoon, sunspots, subtropical high pressure and typhoon; Step S13: construct an extraordinary flood climate warning index map based on the extraordinary flood climate warning index of the selected high water level year.

3. The method for forecasting and warning of super-standard floods based on coupled meteorological, hydrological and hydrodynamic factors according to claim 1, characterized in that: The step S2 is further as follows: Step S21, collect elevation data of the study area, identify water flow direction and confluence area, extract watershed boundaries, construct confluence path network, identify nodes and temporary nodes, and construct watershed topological relationship; Step S22, constructing a flood evolution model and a hydrological and hydrodynamic forecasting model, collecting historical precipitation data, hydrological data and elevation data of the study area and inputting them into the flood evolution model, obtaining the historical flood evolution of the study area and using it as the input of the hydrological and hydrodynamic forecasting model, solving the hydrological and hydrodynamic forecasting model based on the basin topological relationship, and obtaining the main flood forecasting scheme system of the basin in the study area; Step S23, collect the real-time rainfall, water conditions, engineering conditions, and dangerous conditions of the study area, identify temporary nodes, and dynamically adjust the main flood forecasting scheme system of the study area basin based on the spatial topological relationship of the temporary nodes to obtain the basin super-standard flood forecasting scheme system.

4. The method for forecasting and warning of super-standard floods based on coupling meteorological, hydrological and hydrodynamic factors as claimed in claim 3, characterized in that: The step S22 is further as follows: Step S22a collects historical precipitation data, hydrological data and elevation data of the study area and inputs them into a pre-built flood evolution model to obtain the historical flood water level, flow, inundation range and evolution process of the study area; Step S22b, based on the basin topological relationship, identify the key nodes in the basin, extract the historical flood water level, flow, inundation range, evolution process and key nodes in the basin of the study area and input them into the pre-constructed hydrological and hydrodynamic forecasting model to obtain the main flood forecasting scheme system of the basin in the study area, and the key nodes include: flood control scheduling objects, flood control objects and flood control guarantee objects.

5. The method for forecasting and warning of super-standard floods based on coupling meteorological, hydrological and hydrodynamic factors as claimed in claim 3, characterized in that: The step S23 is further as follows: Step S23a, collecting the real-time rainfall, water, engineering and dangerous situation development of the study area, and identifying the dynamic nodes formed by sudden water events that disrupt the evolution law of conventional floods in the river as temporary nodes; Step S23b, constructing a topological relationship of temporary nodes; Step S23c: Based on the spatial topological relationship of the temporary nodes, dynamically adjust the main flood forecasting scheme system of the basin in the study area to obtain the basin super-standard flood forecasting scheme system.

6. The method for forecasting and warning of super-standard floods based on coupled meteorological, hydrological and hydrodynamic factors according to claim 1, characterized in that: The step S3 is further as follows: Step S31, constructing a plurality of hydrological models respectively, and using a one-way coupling method to sequentially couple the meteorological forecast and the plurality of hydrological models; Step S32, constructing a plurality of hydrodynamic models respectively, including: a water surface curve model, a one-dimensional Saint-Venant equation model and a two-dimensional Saint-Venant equation model; Step S33: coupling the hydrological model and the hydrodynamic model by a connection method, taking the calculation results of the hydrological model as the boundary conditions of the hydrodynamic model, and obtaining a meteorological-hydrological-hydraulic coupling basin super-standard flood forecasting model.

7. The method for forecasting and warning of super-standard floods based on coupling meteorological, hydrological and hydrodynamic factors according to claim 1, characterized in that: The step S4 is further as follows: Step S41, inputting the super-standard flood climate warning index map into the meteorological-hydrological-hydraulic coupling basin super-standard flood forecast model, based on the super-standard flood forecast scheme system, using the particle swarm optimization algorithm based on multi-model hybrid to solve the model, and obtaining the basin super-standard flood forecast preliminary scheme; Step S42, conduct real-time forecast analysis, combine expert experience analysis and real-time correction of the preliminary plan for forecasting excessive floods in the basin, and obtain a real-time updated plan for forecasting excessive floods in the basin; Step S43: Adjust the warning information based on the latest forecast results and issue a warning according to the warning standard.

8. The method for forecasting and warning of super-standard floods based on coupling meteorological, hydrological and hydrodynamic factors according to claim 7, characterized in that: The step S41 is further as follows: Step S41a, constructing a linear model, a nonlinear model and a dynamic model, and determining basic parameters of the particle swarm and model parameters of the linear model, the nonlinear model and the dynamic model; Step S41b, randomly generate the position and velocity of the initial particles in the solution space, and evaluate the fitness of all particles; Step S41c, setting a fitness improvement threshold, and selecting a model based on the fitness of the current particle; Step S41d, respectively updating the particle positions and velocities of the linear model, the nonlinear model and the dynamic model; Step S41e, repeat the calculation until complete convergence, and obtain the optimal solution and the corresponding fitness value, that is, the preliminary plan for forecasting super-standard floods in the basin.

9. Based on the coupled meteorological, hydrological and hydrodynamic super-standard flood forecasting and warning system, the characteristics are: include: at least one processor; as well as a memory communicatively connected to at least one of the processors; wherein, The memory stores instructions executable by the processor, and the instructions are used to be executed by the processor to implement the super-standard flood forecasting and warning method based on coupled meteorological, hydrological and hydrodynamic methods as described in any one of claims 1 to 8.

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