Dynamic risk assessment method for comprehensive pipe rack in operation period

Abstract

The invention discloses a dynamic risk assessment method for a comprehensive pipe gallery in an operation period, relates to the technical field of pipe gallery risk assessment, and solves the problems that the control effect of an existing prevention and control means of a comprehensive pipe gallery system on an accident is not considered in the prior art and the social influence is caused once the accident occurs. And thus, the technical problem that the pipe gallery risk assessment is not comprehensive enough is solved. According to the method, the information base is constructed by obtaining the related pipe gallery data, and the risk data of the comprehensive pipe gallery is obtained based on the information base and the historical event cases; dividing the utility tunnel into a plurality of evaluation units; performing risk analysis on the plurality of evaluation units based on the risk data to obtain the risk level of the potential risk event in each evaluation unit; calculating the risk level of the utility tunnel based on the risk level of the risk event in each evaluation unit; and extracting an evaluation result, and sending the evaluation result to the client, so that the technical problem is solved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention belongs to the field of pipeline corridor risk assessment, and specifically is a dynamic risk assessment method for an integrated pipeline corridor during operation. Background Art

[0002] Nowadays, the integrated pipe corridor is gradually becoming the supporting infrastructure of urban municipal construction. The scale of the pipe corridor, the types and number of pipelines contained in the corridor are also increasing, and the safety and stability of the internal space of the integrated pipe corridor have become more important. During the operation period of the integrated pipe corridor, effective, reasonable and feasible risk assessment methods are adopted to correctly predict and grasp risks and take risk reduction measures, which will help ensure the safety of the pipe corridor operation and continuously improve the safety supervision efficiency of the urban integrated pipe corridor.

[0003] The prior art (invention patent with application number 2022113015175) discloses a method and system for dynamic risk assessment of multi-hazard evolution of urban underground utility corridors. The patent mainly constructs a static structural model for urban underground utility corridors, performs multi-hazard accident evolution on the static structural model, generates dynamic results and dynamic risk maps, and conducts risk assessment. The patent does not consider the potential factors and possibilities of disasters, and the control effect of the control system of the utility corridor itself on disasters, but only considers the impact and consequences of accidents on the utility corridor itself.

[0004] The prior art (invention application with publication number CN113642901A) discloses a method for evaluating the operation and maintenance risk of urban underground utility corridors. The application is based on the expert scoring and evaluation of the "probability of occurrence" and "consequences" of the operation and maintenance risk performance of each urban underground utility corridor, and the risk category, risk factor and risk performance are converted into first, second and third level indicators to design a comprehensive evaluation model for the operation and maintenance risk of utility corridors. This patent relies on expert scoring, which is too subjective and does not comprehensively consider the impact of the monitoring and operation equipment of the utility corridor.

[0005] The existing technology mainly conducts risk assessment by monitoring the operation status information and management situation of the pipeline network, or by evaluating the probability of accident occurrence and the possible degree of loss. These methods do not take into account the control effect of the existing prevention and control measures of the integrated pipeline corridor system on accidents and the social impact caused by accidents once they occur, resulting in an incomplete risk assessment of the pipeline corridor. Summary of the invention

[0006] The present invention aims to solve at least one of the technical problems existing in the prior art; to this end, the present invention proposes a dynamic risk assessment method for an integrated pipeline corridor during operation, which is used to solve the technical problem that the prior art does not take into account the control effect of existing prevention and control measures of the integrated pipeline corridor system on accidents and the social impact caused by accidents once they occur, thereby resulting in an incomplete technical problem in the risk assessment of the pipeline corridor.

[0007] To achieve the above-mentioned purpose, the first aspect of the present invention provides a method for dynamic risk assessment of an integrated pipe gallery during operation, comprising:

[0008] Step 1: Build an information database by acquiring relevant pipeline corridor data, and obtain risk data of the integrated pipeline corridor based on the information database and historical event cases; the risk data includes: risk events and risk factors that lead to risk events, operation and maintenance requirements, and management and control suggestions;

[0009] Step 2: Divide the integrated pipeline corridor into several assessment units;

[0010] Step 3: Based on the risk data, risk analysis is performed on several assessment units to obtain the risk level of potential risk events in each assessment unit;

[0011] Step 4: Calculate the risk level of the integrated pipeline corridor based on the risk level of the risk events in each assessment unit;

[0012] Step 5: Extract the assessment results and send them to the client; the assessment results include: the risk level of the integrated pipeline corridor, the risk events corresponding to the risk level of the integrated pipeline corridor, as well as the hazard index, operation and maintenance capacity index and management suggestions; the client includes: mobile phone or computer.

[0013] Preferably, the step of building an information base by acquiring relevant pipe gallery data includes:

[0014] Collect the pipeline corridor data related to the comprehensive pipeline corridor and integrate the pipeline corridor data into an information database; the pipeline corridor data includes: emergency plans, documents, national / industry / local standards, etc.

[0015] Preferably, the step of obtaining risk data of the integrated pipe gallery based on the information database and historical event cases includes:

[0016] Extract potential risk events related to the integrated pipeline corridor based on the information database;

[0017] Based on historical event cases, risk factors, operation and maintenance requirements, and management and control suggestions that lead to potential risk events are obtained; among them, historical event cases refer to records of historical events in which accidents in integrated pipeline corridors have been handled and recorded.

[0018] It should be noted that the potential risk events refer to various events that may occur during the operation of the integrated pipeline corridor but have not actually occurred and may have an adverse impact on the safe and stable operation of the integrated pipeline corridor;

[0019] The risk factors refer to factors that trigger risk events, which can be natural factors or human factors. For example, in the risk event of tunnel collapse, earthquakes, third-party construction damage, and tunnel structure defects are all risk factors. The existence of these factors makes the risk event more likely to occur.

[0020] The operation and maintenance requirements refer to the management, maintenance and inspection specifications required to prevent risk events and ensure the normal operation of the integrated pipeline corridor. For example, after an earthquake, pipelines entering the corridor should be inspected in a timely manner and the inspection frequency should be increased. Within the safety protection range of the facilities along the integrated pipeline corridor, construction behavior should be standardized to ensure the safe operation of the integrated pipeline corridor.

[0021] The management and control recommendations are preventive measures or improvement suggestions for the identified risk factors, aiming to reduce the probability and impact of risk events through effective management and control measures. For example, in order to avoid third-party construction damaging the integrated pipeline corridor, it is recommended to set up obvious signs along the integrated pipeline corridor and strengthen supervision of construction activities. For defects in the pipeline corridor itself, such as horizontal displacement alarms, it is necessary to immediately notify the operation and management unit to take corresponding measures.

[0022] Preferably, the integrated pipe gallery is divided into several evaluation units, including:

[0023] The integrated pipeline corridor is divided into several units based on preset conditions; the preset conditions include: geological conditions, surface environment, pipeline corridor length or fire protection zones.

[0024] It should be noted that the geological conditions refer to the areas with complex geological conditions or susceptible to geological disasters being divided into separate assessment units based on geological reports and geological exploration data; for example, areas with geological hazards such as landslides and subsidence should be assessed separately;

[0025] The surface environment refers to the possible impact of the surrounding environment on the integrated pipeline corridor, such as adjacent buildings, roads, rivers, etc.; places with complex surface environments (such as crossing dense residential areas or close to important infrastructure) should be divided into separate assessment units;

[0026] The length of the pipe gallery refers to that for a long integrated pipe gallery, it can be divided into several assessment units at a certain length interval; for example, the length interval can be appropriately adjusted every 100 meters or according to the actual length and complexity of the pipe gallery;

[0027] The fire partition refers to the division of assessment units according to the design of the integrated pipe gallery and the location of fire walls or other fire isolation facilities. Each independent area within a fire partition should be regarded as an assessment unit.

[0028] Preferably, the risk analysis is performed on a plurality of assessment units based on the risk data, including:

[0029] S1: A basic indicator set for building an assessment module based on risk data and information base; the assessment module includes: hazard module, operation and maintenance module, and consequence module;

[0030] S2: Assign scores to the basic indicators of the evaluation module based on preset standards;

[0031] S3: Based on the assessment module, the potential risk events in the assessment unit are assessed to obtain the risk scores corresponding to the risk events; wherein the risk scores include: hazard score, operation and maintenance capability score and consequence score;

[0032] S4: Based on the risk score and the preset risk level classification standard, the potential risk events in the assessment unit are classified into risk levels to obtain the risk levels corresponding to the potential risk events in the assessment unit.

[0033] It should be noted that the hazard module mainly considers the inherent risk factors of the integrated pipe gallery itself and the pipelines entering the gallery, as well as the unsafe factors discovered through inspection, monitoring, detection, prediction and other means; for example, for the risk event of "water supply and recycled water pipeline leakage and waterlogging", the hazard module may include the status of the water supply and recycled water pipelines (such as whether there are cracks, corrosion, etc.);

[0034] The operation and maintenance capability module mainly considers the control measures of the pipelines entering the corridor and the control capabilities of the ancillary facilities of the integrated corridor; the score of the operation and maintenance capability module is reflected as a correction to the score of the hazard module; for example, for the risk event of "water supply and recycled water pipeline leakage and waterlogging", the operation and maintenance capability module may include the status of the water supply and drainage system (such as whether it can work normally);

[0035] The consequence module mainly considers the impacts of risk events once they occur, such as casualties, economic losses, social impacts, and supply interruptions. For example, for "waterlogging caused by leakage of water supply and recycled water pipelines", the consequence module may include casualties, economic losses, and the impact of water supply and recycled water pipeline interruptions.

[0036] Potential risk events in an assessment unit refer to events that may occur within the assessment unit and pose a threat to the safety and stability of the integrated pipeline corridor.

[0037] Preferably, the basic indicator set for constructing the assessment module based on the risk data and information base includes:

[0038] By extracting the basic indicator set of the evaluation module from the risk data and information base; wherein the basic indicator set includes: the basic indicator set of the hazard module, the basic indicator set of the operation and maintenance module and the basic indicator set of the consequence module.

[0039] It should be noted that the basic indicator set of the hazard module refers to the internal and external factors that may lead to potential risk events. For example, for a tunnel collapse event, the indicators of the hazard module may include: earthquakes, such as earthquakes with an intensity of 8 degrees or above, third-party construction damage, such as collapse, landslides, cracks, etc. of roads and rock and soil along the line, fire and explosion, such as the stacking of flammable and explosive materials in the tunnel cabin, and body defects, such as horizontal displacement alarms, vertical displacement alarms, and contour deformation alarms of the tunnel body.

[0040] The basic indicator set of the operation and maintenance module refers to the control capabilities and response measures of the integrated pipeline corridor and its internal pipelines when facing potential risk events; taking "natural gas pipeline leakage and explosion" as an example, the basic indicator set of the operation and maintenance module may include: environment and equipment monitoring system: monitoring environmental parameters, such as temperature, humidity, gas concentration, etc.; early warning and alarm system: monitoring abnormal conditions and issuing alarms; ventilation system: monitoring whether the ventilation system is working normally; fire protection system: monitoring the integrity of the fire protection system; power supply system: evaluating the stability of the power supply system; lighting system: evaluating the integrity of the lighting system; safety management module: evaluating whether safety management measures are in place;

[0041] The basic indicator set of the consequence module refers to the specific impacts and damages that may be caused once a potential risk event occurs, including but not limited to casualties, economic losses, social impacts and supply disruptions.

[0042] Preferably, assigning scores to basic indicators of the evaluation module based on preset standards includes:

[0043] Danger score:

[0044] If there is no abnormal indicator in the basic indicator set of the hazard module indicating that a risk event will occur, the hazard score is 1 point;

[0045] If there are abnormal indicators in the basic indicator set of the risk module, and the long-term existence will lead to the occurrence of risk events, the risk score is 2 points;

[0046] If there are abnormal indicators in the basic indicator set of the risk module, and they may directly lead to risk events in the short term, the risk score is 3 points;

[0047] If there are direct signs that a risk event is imminent, the risk score is 4 points;

[0048] If the risk event may occur at any time or has already occurred, the risk score is 5 points;

[0049] Operational ability score:

[0050] If there are no abnormal indicators in the basic indicator set of the operation and maintenance capability module, the operation and maintenance capability score is 1 point;

[0051] If the abnormality of indicators in the basic indicator set of the operation and maintenance capability module has a small impact on the risk event, the operation and maintenance capability score is 2 points;

[0052] If the abnormality of indicators in the basic indicator set of the operation and maintenance capability module has a significant impact on the risk event, but is not a decisive factor, the operation and maintenance capability score is 3 points;

[0053] If the abnormality of indicators in the basic indicator set of the operation and maintenance capability module has a significant impact on the risk event, the operation and maintenance capability score is 4 points;

[0054] If the abnormality of the indicators in the basic indicator set of the operation and maintenance capability module will lead to the risk event being out of control, the operation and maintenance capability score will be 5 points;

[0055] Consequence score:

[0056] If the consequence is negligible, the consequence score is 1 point;

[0057] If it causes general events and social impact, the consequence score is 2 points;

[0058] If there are casualties or dangers, or if it causes a major incident and social impact, the consequence score is 3 points;

[0059] If there are major casualties or dangers; partial failure of the tunnel; or major incidents and social impacts, the consequence score is 4 points;

[0060] If there are major casualties or dangers; the function of the pipeline corridor fails; or it causes particularly serious incidents and social impacts, the consequence score will be 5 points.

[0061] It should be noted that the evaluation module score is the maximum value of the scores of each indicator in the basic indicator set of the corresponding module;

[0062] No indicator abnormality means that there is no abnormality in the basic indicator set related to the risk event, that is, all indicators related to the risk event are within the normal range; for example, for the hazard module, if all monitoring data (such as the pressure and flow of the water supply pipeline) and inspection records (such as no obvious damage on the pipeline surface) show that everything is normal and no abnormal situation is found that indicates that the pipeline may leak, then it can be considered that there is no abnormality in any indicator indicating that a risk event will occur; for the operation and maintenance module, if the water supply and drainage system is in good operating condition and there is no abnormality (such as the drainage pump is working normally and is not blocked or damaged), then it can also be considered that there is no abnormality in any indicator indicating that an event will occur;

[0063] The existence of direct signs indicating that a risk event is imminent means that clear signs are found in the monitoring data or during the inspection process, indicating that a certain risk event is about to occur; these signs are usually discovered through various monitoring equipment or manual inspections, and these signs indicate that the current situation is approaching a critical point. If measures are not taken in time, a risk event is likely to occur; for example, for a risk event of natural gas pipeline leakage and explosion, if it is monitored that the natural gas concentration continues to increase and has reached a certain proportion of the lower explosion limit (LEL), such as reaching 20% ​​LEL, this indicates that a natural gas pipeline leakage and explosion event is about to occur;

[0064] The degree to which abnormal indicators in the operation and maintenance capability score affect risk events is determined by experts based on their actual impact and experience;

[0065] The above-mentioned general events and social impacts, major events and social impacts, major events and social impacts, and particularly major events and social impacts are all divided manually based on experience and actual impacts; among them, events specifically refer to service interruptions caused by internal facility failures or emergencies in the integrated pipe gallery, and the impacts of these interruptions on the daily lives of the public, including: water, gas, and heating outages, etc.;

[0066] The general casualties or risks and major casualties or risks are artificially divided according to actual consequences and impacts.

[0067] Preferably, the risk level classification of potential risk events in the assessment unit based on the risk score and the preset risk level classification standard includes:

[0068] The possibility score is calculated based on the hazard score and the maintenance capability score;

[0069] The risk level corresponding to the risk event is determined based on the possibility score, consequence score and preset risk level classification standards; among which, the risk levels include: low risk, general risk, greater risk and major risk.

[0070] It should be noted that the preset risk level classification standard is artificially set by experts based on the actual situation of the integrated pipeline corridor, industry specifications, national standards and historical event cases, in order to be able to more scientifically evaluate and manage risks; the possibility score refers to the probability of a certain risk event occurring;

[0071] Danger and operation and maintenance capabilities reflect the possibility of risk events from different perspectives; danger focuses on the internal causes of events, while operation and maintenance capabilities focus on the ability to control risks; even if there is a certain degree of danger, if the operation and maintenance capabilities are strong, the occurrence of risk events can still be effectively controlled; conversely, if the operation and maintenance capabilities are weak, even if the danger is not high, it may lead to the occurrence of risk events; in the actual operation process, the occurrence of risk events is often the result of the joint action of multiple factors. By comprehensively considering these factors, the possibility of risk events can be more accurately assessed.

[0072] Preferably, the possibility score is calculated based on the hazard score and the operation and maintenance capability score, including:

[0073] The hazard score is marked as M, and the maintenance capability score is marked as N;

[0074] If N = 1, then K = M-1; where K is the probability score, and K ≥ 1;

[0075] If N = 2 points or N = 3 points, then K = M;

[0076] If N=4 points or N=5 points, then K=M+1; the maximum possibility score K is 5 points.

[0077] Preferably, the risk level of the integrated pipe gallery is calculated based on the risk level of the risk event in each assessment unit, including:

[0078] S1: Extract the number of assessment units with major risk level and relatively high risk level among several assessment units;

[0079] S2: Calculate the percentage of the number of assessment units with a major risk level in the total number of assessment units, and mark the percentage as P;

[0080] S3: Calculate the percentage of the number of assessment units with a higher risk level in the total number of assessment units, and mark the percentage as Q;

[0081] S4: If 30%≤P≤100% or 50%≤P+Q≤100%, the risk level of the utility corridor is a major risk;

[0082] If 10%≤P<30% or 30%≤P+Q<50%, the risk level of the utility corridor is high risk;

[0083] If 5%≤P<10% or 10%≤P+Q<30%, the risk level of the utility corridor is general risk;

[0084] If 0%≤P<5% or 0%≤P+Q<10%, the risk level of the integrated pipeline corridor is low risk.

[0085] The present invention calculates the possibility score of risk events through the hazard score and the operation and maintenance capability score; the risk degree of risk events is graded according to the possibility of risk events and the consequences after the risk events occur, thereby realizing quantitative evaluation and systematic identification of risk events, which not only improves the scientificity and accuracy of risk assessment, but also makes risk identification more comprehensive and systematic, and helps to prevent the omission of important risk factors; at the same time, through accurate risk classification, resource allocation is optimized, ensuring that high-risk events are given priority, and promoting the formulation of emergency plans and the improvement of management levels; in addition, it also promotes the systematization and standardization of risk management, enhances prevention capabilities, and ensures the safe and stable operation of the integrated pipeline corridor.

[0086] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0087] 1. In the prior art, risk assessment is mainly carried out by monitoring the operation status information and management status of the pipeline network, or by assessing the probability of an accident and the degree of possible loss. These methods do not take into account the control effect of the existing prevention and control measures of the integrated pipeline corridor system on accidents and the social impact caused by accidents once they occur, resulting in the problem of insufficient comprehensiveness in the risk assessment of the pipeline corridor. The present invention constructs an information database by acquiring relevant pipeline corridor data, and acquires risk data of the integrated pipeline corridor based on the information database and historical event cases; divides the integrated pipeline corridor into several assessment units; performs risk analysis on several assessment units based on risk data to obtain the risk level of potential risk events in each assessment unit; and obtains the risk level of potential risk events in each assessment unit based on the risk level of each assessment unit. The risk level of the integrated pipeline corridor is calculated based on the risk level of the dangerous event; the assessment results are extracted and sent to the client. By constructing a basic indicator set of three modules: dangerousness, operation and maintenance capability, and consequence, and combining the dangerousness score and the operation and maintenance capability score to calculate the possibility score of the risk event, the risk degree of the risk event is then graded based on the consequence score after the risk event occurs. This realizes a systematic and quantitative assessment of potential risk events in the integrated pipeline corridor, which not only improves the scientificity and accuracy of risk assessment, but also makes risk identification and management more comprehensive and systematic, which helps to optimize resource allocation, guide the formulation of preventive measures, improve management level and emergency response capabilities, and ultimately ensure the safe and stable operation of the integrated pipeline corridor.

[0088] 2 The present invention constructs a basic indicator set including three modules: hazard, operation and maintenance capability, and consequence, and then updates the scores of these indicators in real time according to the monitored data changes. For example, when an abnormal increase in natural gas concentration is monitored, the hazard score in the hazard module will be adjusted immediately, and the score of the operation and maintenance capability module will be adjusted according to the effectiveness of existing control measures. Finally, the possibility score of the risk event is calculated based on the updated score, and the risk level is dynamically adjusted in combination with the score of the consequence module. By continuously tracking and reflecting the changes in the internal and external environment of the pipeline corridor, the timeliness and accuracy of the risk assessment are ensured, so that timely measures can be taken to prevent or mitigate the impact of potential risk events. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0089] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the description of the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without paying creative work.

[0090] Figure 1 A schematic diagram of the method steps of an embodiment of the present invention;

[0091] Figure 2 Schematic diagram of risk analysis of an evaluation unit according to an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0092] The technical solution of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the embodiments. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, rather than all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0093] See also Figure 1 The first embodiment of the present invention provides a method for dynamic risk assessment of an integrated pipe gallery during operation, comprising:

[0094] Step 1: Build an information database by acquiring relevant pipeline corridor data, and obtain risk data of the integrated pipeline corridor based on the information database and historical event cases;

[0095] Step 2: Divide the integrated pipeline corridor into several assessment units;

[0096] Step 3: Based on the risk data, risk analysis is performed on several assessment units to obtain the risk level of potential risk events in each assessment unit;

[0097] Step 4: Calculate the risk level of the integrated pipeline corridor based on the risk level of the risk events in each assessment unit;

[0098] Step 5: Extract the evaluation results and send them to the client.

[0099] The information base is constructed by acquiring relevant pipeline corridor data, including:

[0100] Collect the pipeline corridor data related to the comprehensive pipeline corridor and integrate the pipeline corridor data into an information database; the pipeline corridor data includes: emergency plans, documents, national / industry / local standards, etc.

[0101] Obtain risk data of the integrated pipeline corridor based on the information database and historical event cases, including:

[0102] Extract potential risk events related to the integrated pipeline corridor based on the information database;

[0103] Based on historical event cases, risk factors, operation and maintenance requirements, and management and control suggestions that lead to potential risk events are obtained; among them, historical event cases refer to records of historical events in which accidents in integrated pipeline corridors have been handled and recorded.

[0104] The comprehensive pipeline corridor is divided into several assessment units, including:

[0105] The integrated pipeline corridor is divided into several units based on preset conditions; the preset conditions include: geological conditions, surface environment, pipeline corridor length or fire protection zones.

[0106] See also Figure 2 , based on risk data by conducting risk analysis on several assessment units, including:

[0107] S1: A basic indicator set for building an assessment module based on risk data and information base; the assessment module includes: hazard module, operation and maintenance module, and consequence module;

[0108] S2: Assign scores to the basic indicators of the evaluation module based on preset standards;

[0109] S3: Based on the assessment module, the potential risk events in the assessment unit are assessed to obtain the risk scores corresponding to the risk events; wherein the risk scores include: hazard score, operation and maintenance capability score and consequence score;

[0110] S4: Based on the risk score and the preset risk level classification standard, the potential risk events in the assessment unit are classified into risk levels to obtain the risk levels corresponding to the potential risk events in the assessment unit.

[0111] The basic indicator set for building the assessment module based on risk data and information base includes:

[0112] By extracting the basic indicator set of the evaluation module from the risk data and information base; wherein the basic indicator set includes: the basic indicator set of the hazard module, the basic indicator set of the operation and maintenance module and the basic indicator set of the consequence module.

[0113] Scoring of basic indicators of the evaluation module is performed based on preset standards, including:

[0114] Danger score:

[0115] If there is no abnormal indicator in the basic indicator set of the hazard module indicating that a risk event will occur, the hazard score is 1 point;

[0116] If there are abnormal indicators in the basic indicator set of the risk module, and the long-term existence will lead to the occurrence of risk events, the risk score is 2 points;

[0117] If there are abnormal indicators in the basic indicator set of the risk module, and they may directly lead to risk events in the short term, the risk score is 3 points;

[0118] If there are direct signs that a risk event is imminent, the risk score is 4 points;

[0119] If the risk event may occur at any time or has already occurred, the risk score is 5 points;

[0120] Operational ability score:

[0121] If there are no abnormal indicators in the basic indicator set of the operation and maintenance capability module, the operation and maintenance capability score is 1 point;

[0122] If the abnormality of indicators in the basic indicator set of the operation and maintenance capability module has a small impact on the risk event, the operation and maintenance capability score is 2 points;

[0123] If the abnormality of indicators in the basic indicator set of the operation and maintenance capability module has a significant impact on the risk event, but is not a decisive factor, the operation and maintenance capability score is 3 points;

[0124] If the abnormality of indicators in the basic indicator set of the operation and maintenance capability module has a significant impact on the risk event, the operation and maintenance capability score is 4 points;

[0125] If the abnormality of the indicators in the basic indicator set of the operation and maintenance capability module will lead to the risk event being out of control, the operation and maintenance capability score will be 5 points;

[0126] Consequence score:

[0127] If the consequence is negligible, the consequence score is 1 point;

[0128] If it causes general events and social impact, the consequence score is 2 points;

[0129] If there are casualties or dangers, or if it causes a major incident and social impact, the consequence score is 3 points;

[0130] If there are major casualties or dangers; partial failure of the tunnel; or major incidents and social impacts, the consequence score is 4 points;

[0131] If there are major casualties or dangers; the function of the pipeline corridor fails; or it causes particularly serious incidents and social impacts, the consequence score will be 5 points.

[0132] It should be noted that the present invention can achieve the effect of dynamic evaluation of the integrated pipeline corridor by real-time monitoring of the data of the integrated pipeline corridor, updating the evaluation module score of the risk event in real time according to the changes in the data, and updating the risk level based on the updated evaluation module score.

[0133] For example, taking the "gas chamber methane concentration level 3 alarm" event as an example, when the real-time monitoring data changes, such as upgrading from level 3 alarm to level 2 alarm, the risk level will also change. The following is the specific implementation process:

[0134] Real-time monitoring and data collection;

[0135] 1. Real-time monitoring:

[0136] Various sensors are deployed inside the integrated pipeline corridor, such as methane concentration sensors, to monitor the methane concentration in the gas compartment.

[0137] The monitoring data is transmitted to the central control system in real time for data processing and analysis.

[0138] 2. Data collection:

[0139] The data acquisition system automatically collects data from sensors, such as methane concentration readings.

[0140] The data is stored in a repository and used as input for risk assessment.

[0141] risk assessment process;

[0142] 1. Initial state:

[0143] Assume that the initial methane concentration in the gas tank is at level three alarm and the risk score is 3 points.

[0144] 2. Data update:

[0145] As time went on, real-time monitoring data showed that the methane concentration in the gas compartment rose to the level 2 alarm.

[0146] The data acquisition system captures this change and transmits the new data to the central control system.

[0147] 3. Re-evaluation:

[0148] After receiving the new data, the central control system re-evaluates the risk level:

[0149] Initially, the methane concentration in the gas compartment is at level 3 alarm, and the risk score is 3 points. Assuming the operation and maintenance score is 4 points and the consequence score is 4 points, the possibility score K = 3 + 1 = 4 points, and the output risk level is a high risk.

[0150] As time goes by, real-time monitoring data shows that the methane concentration in the gas tank rises to the second-level alarm. Assuming the risk score is 4 points, and the operation and maintenance score and consequence score remain unchanged; then the possibility score K = 4 + 1 = 5 points, and the output risk level is major risk;

[0151] 4. Update risk level:

[0152] Update the new risk level into the database of the central control system.

[0153] If the risk level is upgraded from the original lower level to "greater risk" or "major risk", corresponding emergency measures need to be taken immediately. The system will send an alert to the mobile phone or computer client of the relevant personnel according to the new risk level. The alert content includes the new risk level, risk events, dangerousness indicators, operation and maintenance indicators and management suggestions.

[0154] The present invention monitors the data of the integrated pipeline corridor in real time and dynamically updates the risk level according to data changes. It can promptly identify and take measures in the early stages of risk events, which is conducive to improving the speed and accuracy of risk response and ensuring intervention before the risk intensifies, thereby effectively preventing accidents and ensuring the safe and stable operation of the integrated pipeline corridor.

[0155] Based on the risk score and the preset risk level classification standards, the potential risk events in the assessment unit are classified into risk levels, including:

[0156] The possibility score is calculated based on the hazard score and the maintenance capability score;

[0157] The risk level corresponding to the risk event is determined based on the possibility score, consequence score and preset risk level classification standards; among which, the risk levels include: low risk, general risk, greater risk and major risk.

[0158] The probability score is calculated based on the hazard score and the maintenance capability score, including:

[0159] The hazard score is marked as M, and the maintenance capability score is marked as N;

[0160] If N = 1, then K = M-1; where K is the probability score, and K ≥ 1;

[0161] If N = 2 points or N = 3 points, then K = M;

[0162] If N=4 points or N=5 points, then K=M+1; the maximum possibility score K is 5 points.

[0163] The risk level of the integrated pipeline corridor is calculated based on the risk level of the risk events in each assessment unit, including:

[0164] S1: Extract the number of assessment units with major risk level and relatively high risk level among several assessment units;

[0165] S2: Calculate the percentage of the number of assessment units with a major risk level in the total number of assessment units, and mark the percentage as P;

[0166] S3: Calculate the percentage of the number of assessment units with a higher risk level in the total number of assessment units, and mark the percentage as Q;

[0167] S4: If 30%≤P≤100% or 50%≤P+Q≤100%, the risk level of the utility corridor is a major risk;

[0168] If 10%≤P<30% or 30%≤P+Q<50%, the risk level of the utility corridor is high risk;

[0169] If 5%≤P<10% or 10%≤P+Q<30%, the risk level of the utility corridor is general risk;

[0170] If 0%≤P<5% or 0%≤P+Q<10%, the risk level of the integrated pipeline corridor is low risk.

[0171] It should be noted that the risk level of the integrated pipeline corridor obtained by P and the risk level of the integrated pipeline corridor obtained by P+Q will ultimately take the higher risk level as the risk level of the integrated pipeline corridor.

[0172] For example, a large or medium-sized integrated pipe gallery is made of cast-in-place reinforced concrete. The pipelines entering the gallery include water supply pipelines, gas pipelines, thermal pipelines (hot water), and communication cables. The integrated pipe gallery has three compartments, of which the gas pipeline is set in an independent compartment, the remaining pipelines are set in the integrated compartment, and drainage pipelines are planned to be set in the remaining compartments.

[0173] 1. Overview of the integrated cabin;

[0174] (1) Water supply pipeline: There are two types of water supply pipelines entering the corridor. One is a 0.4MPa water supply pipeline DN1200, which supplies 10,000 water users. Some users cannot be interrupted and the valve is damaged and cannot be closed normally. The other is a 0.25MPa water supply pipeline DN500, which is planned to supply 3,000 water users; the DN500 pipeline is not used.

[0175] (2) Heating pipeline: DN500 hot water pipeline, pressure 1.0MPa, heating area 500,000 m 2 , all users are interruptible users.

[0176] (3) Communication cables: Provincial communication cables, 48 ​​holes. Once interrupted, local fixed and mobile phone communications will be blocked for less than 50,000 households.

[0177] 2. Overview of the gas tank situation;

[0178] The medium-pressure gas pipeline is associated with 10,000 users, including some large customers that cannot be interrupted.

[0179] 3. Situation;

[0180] The third-level alarm of methane concentration in the gas cabin lasted for 2 hours.

[0181] 4. Analyze the path;

[0182] (1) Hazard module analysis;

[0183] Assume that the risk event corresponding to the third-level alarm of methane concentration is natural gas pipeline leakage and explosion, and the hazard score corresponding to the third-level alarm of methane concentration is 3 points.

[0184] (2) Analysis of operation and maintenance capability module;

[0185] Assume that the basic indicator set of the operation and maintenance module corresponding to the natural gas pipeline leakage and explosion is {environment and equipment monitoring system; early warning and alarm system; ventilation system abnormality; fire protection system abnormality; power supply system abnormality; lighting system abnormality; safety management module};

[0186] As shown in the table below, if the condition of "the alarm of temperature, humidity, gas and other detection equipment continues for 2 hours" is met and there is no abnormality in other operation and maintenance modules, the ventilation system operation and maintenance defect score is 4 points; the final operation and maintenance score is 4 points.

[0187]

[0188]

[0189] It should be noted that the score of the upper-level indicator is the maximum value among the scores of its lower-level indicators; when there is no corresponding data for a certain indicator, the indicator will not be analyzed.

[0190] (3) consequence module analysis;

[0191] As shown in the table below, the corresponding consequences include casualties, economic losses, impact of natural gas pipeline interruption, public opinion impact, and traffic impact, and the final score of the consequences is 5 points.

[0192]

[0193]

[0194] (4) Risk assessment;

[0195] The danger of a natural gas pipeline leak or explosion is 3 points, the operation and maintenance capability is 4 points, and the consequences are 5 points;

[0196] Calculate the likelihood score:

[0197] Since the operation and maintenance capability is 4 points, that is, N = 4, then K = 3 + 1 = 4, so the possibility score is 4 points;

[0198] As shown in the table below, the risk level of this risk event is significant; output natural gas pipeline leakage and explosion events and risk levels, ventilation system defects and management recommendations.

[0199]

[0200] (5) Risk assessment of integrated pipeline corridors;

[0201] Assume that there are 50 assessment units in the comprehensive pipeline corridor; among them, 5 units have a greater risk of "natural gas pipeline leakage and explosion", 2 units have a major risk of "natural gas pipeline leakage and explosion", and the risk level of other units is general risk or low risk.

[0202] Calculate the percentage:

[0203] The percentage of assessment units with major risk levels in the total number of assessment units is P = (2 / 50) × 100% = 4%;

[0204] The percentage of the number of assessment units with a relatively high risk level in the total number of assessment units is Q = (5 + 2) / 50 × 100% = 14%;

[0205] According to the calculation results:

[0206] P+Q=4%+14%=18%;

[0207] Since 0%≤P=4%<5%, the risk level of the utility corridor is low risk;

[0208] Since 10%≤P+Q=18%<30%, the risk level of the utility corridor is general risk;

[0209] Since the risk level of the integrated pipe corridor is ultimately the higher risk level, the risk level of the integrated pipe corridor is general risk;

[0210] Output the risk level of the integrated pipeline corridor, corresponding risk events, hazard indicators, operation and maintenance defect indicators, and management and control suggestions.

[0211] Working principle of the present invention:

[0212] The present invention constructs an information database by acquiring relevant pipeline corridor data, and acquires risk data of the integrated pipeline corridor based on the information database and historical event cases; divides the integrated pipeline corridor into a number of evaluation units; performs risk analysis on the several evaluation units based on the risk data to obtain the risk level of potential risk events in each evaluation unit; calculates the risk level of the integrated pipeline corridor based on the risk level of the risk event in each evaluation unit; extracts the evaluation results, and sends the evaluation results to the client, which solves the problem that the existing technology mainly conducts risk assessment by monitoring the operation status information and management status of the pipeline network, or conducts assessment based on the probability of accident occurrence and the degree of possible loss. These methods do not take into account the control effect of the existing prevention and control measures of the integrated pipeline corridor system on accidents and the social impact caused once the accident occurs, thereby resulting in the problem of insufficient comprehensiveness in the pipeline corridor risk assessment.

[0213] The above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical method of the present invention rather than to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the preferred embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that the technical method of the present invention may be modified or replaced by equivalents without departing from the spirit and scope of the technical method of the present invention.

Claims

1. A dynamic risk assessment method for an integrated utility corridor during operation, characterized in that: include: Step 1: Build an information database by acquiring relevant pipeline corridor data, and obtain risk data of the integrated pipeline corridor based on the information database and historical event cases; Step 2: Divide the integrated pipeline corridor into several assessment units; Step 3: Based on the risk data, risk analysis is performed on several assessment units to obtain the risk level of potential risk events in each assessment unit; Step 4: Calculate the risk level of the integrated pipeline corridor based on the risk level of the risk events in each assessment unit; Step 5: Extract the assessment results and send them to the client; the assessment results include: the risk level of the integrated pipeline corridor, the risk events corresponding to the risk level of the integrated pipeline corridor, as well as the hazard index, operation and maintenance capacity index and management suggestions.

2. According to claim 1, a dynamic risk assessment method for an integrated pipe gallery during operation is characterized in that: The risk data of the integrated pipe gallery is obtained based on the information database and historical event cases, including: Extract potential risk events related to the integrated pipeline corridor based on the information database; Based on historical event cases, risk factors, operation and maintenance requirements, and management and control suggestions that lead to potential risk events are obtained; among them, historical event cases refer to records of historical events in which accidents in integrated pipeline corridors have been handled and recorded.

3. According to claim 1, a dynamic risk assessment method for an integrated pipe gallery during operation is characterized in that: The utility tunnel is divided into several assessment units, including: The integrated pipeline corridor is divided into several units based on preset conditions; the preset conditions include: geological conditions, surface environment, pipeline corridor length or fire protection zones.

4. According to a method for dynamic risk assessment of an integrated pipe gallery during operation period according to claim 1, it is characterized in that: The risk data is based on a risk analysis of several assessment units, including: S1: A basic indicator set for building an assessment module based on risk data and information base; the assessment module includes: hazard module, operation and maintenance module, and consequence module; S2: Assign scores to the basic indicators of the evaluation module based on preset standards; S3: Based on the assessment module, the potential risk events in the assessment unit are assessed to obtain the risk scores corresponding to the risk events; wherein the risk scores include: hazard score, operation and maintenance capability score and consequence score; S4: Based on the risk score and the preset risk level classification standard, the potential risk events in the assessment unit are classified into risk levels to obtain the risk levels corresponding to the potential risk events in the assessment unit.

5. A method for dynamic risk assessment of an integrated pipe gallery during operation according to claim 4, characterized in that: The basic indicator set for constructing the assessment module based on risk data and information base includes: By extracting the basic indicator set of the evaluation module from the risk data and information base; wherein the basic indicator set includes: the basic indicator set of the hazard module, the basic indicator set of the operation and maintenance module and the basic indicator set of the consequence module.

6. A dynamic risk assessment method for an integrated utility tunnel during operation according to claim 4, characterized in that: The scoring of the basic indicators of the evaluation module based on the preset standards includes: Danger score: If there is no abnormal indicator in the basic indicator set of the hazard module indicating that a risk event will occur, the hazard score is 1 point; If there are abnormal indicators in the basic indicator set of the risk module, and the long-term existence will lead to the occurrence of risk events, the risk score is 2 points; If there are abnormal indicators in the basic indicator set of the risk module, and they may directly lead to risk events in the short term, the risk score is 3 points; If there are direct signs that a risk event is imminent, the risk score is 4 points; If the risk event may occur at any time or has already occurred, the risk score is 5 points; Operational ability score: If there is no abnormal indicator in the basic indicator set of the operation and maintenance capability module, the operation and maintenance capability score is 1 point; If the abnormality of indicators in the basic indicator set of the operation and maintenance capability module has a small impact on the risk event, the operation and maintenance capability score is 2 points; If the abnormality of indicators in the basic indicator set of the operation and maintenance capability module has a significant impact on the risk event, but is not a decisive factor, the operation and maintenance capability score is 3 points; If the abnormality of indicators in the basic indicator set of the operation and maintenance capability module has a significant impact on the risk event, the operation and maintenance capability score is 4 points; If the abnormality of the indicators in the basic indicator set of the operation and maintenance capability module will lead to the risk event being out of control, the operation and maintenance capability score will be 5 points; Consequence score: If the consequence is negligible, the consequence score is 1 point; If it causes general events and social impact, the consequence score is 2 points; If there are casualties or dangers, or if it causes a major incident and social impact, the consequence score is 3 points; If there are major casualties or dangers; partial failure of the tunnel; or major incidents and social impacts, the consequence score is 4 points; If there are major casualties or dangers; the function of the pipeline corridor fails; or it causes particularly serious incidents and social impacts, the consequence score will be 5 points.

7. A method for dynamic risk assessment of an integrated pipe gallery during operation according to claim 4, characterized in that: The risk level classification of potential risk events in the assessment unit based on the risk score and the preset risk level classification standard includes: The possibility score is calculated based on the hazard score and the maintenance capability score; The risk level corresponding to the risk event is determined based on the possibility score, consequence score and preset risk level classification standards; among which, the risk levels include: low risk, general risk, greater risk and major risk.

8. A method for dynamic risk assessment of an integrated utility tunnel during operation according to claim 7, characterized in that: The possibility score is calculated based on the hazard score and the operation and maintenance capability score, including: The hazard score is marked as M, and the maintenance capability score is marked as N; If N = 1, then K = M-1; where K is the probability score, and K ≥ 1; If N = 2 points or N = 3 points, then K = M; If N=4 points or N=5 points, then K=M+1; the maximum possibility score K is 5 points.

9. The method for dynamic risk assessment of an integrated pipe gallery during operation according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The risk level of the integrated pipe gallery is calculated based on the risk level of the risk events in each assessment unit, including: S1: Extract the number of assessment units with major risk level and relatively high risk level among several assessment units; S2: Calculate the percentage of the number of assessment units with a major risk level in the total number of assessment units, and mark the percentage as P; S3: Calculate the percentage of the number of assessment units with a higher risk level in the total number of assessment units, and mark the percentage as Q; S4: If 30%≤P≤100% or 50%≤P+Q≤100%, the risk level of the utility corridor is a major risk; If 10%≤P<30% or 30%≤P+Q<50%, the risk level of the utility corridor is high risk; If 5%≤P<10% or 10%≤P+Q<30%, the risk level of the utility corridor is general risk; If 0%≤P<5% or 0%≤P+Q<10%, the risk level of the integrated pipeline corridor is low risk.

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