Method and system for judging operation efficiency of electricity market

Abstract

The invention discloses an electricity market operation efficiency determination method. The method comprises the steps of obtaining data information of a target electricity market; constructing an evaluation factor set and an evaluation result set of the electricity market; calculating by adopting an analytic hierarchy process to obtain a weight coefficient matrix of the evaluation factor set; designing a membership function of each element in the evaluation factor set and constructing a membership matrix; calculating to obtain a comprehensive evaluation vector of the target electricity market; and judging the operation efficiency of the target power market according to the comprehensive evaluation vector and the evaluation result set. The invention also discloses a system for realizing the method for judging the operation efficiency of the electricity market. According to the method, the evaluation index system of the target electricity market is constructed by acquiring and processing various types of objective parameters of the target electricity market, and fuzzy processing and calculation are performed on the constructed system, so that judgment of the operation efficiency of the electricity market is finally realized, and the method is higher in reliability, better in accuracy, more objective and more scientific.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention belongs to the field of electrical automation, and in particular relates to a method and system for determining the operation efficiency of an electric power market. Background Art

[0002] With the development of economy and technology and the improvement of people's living standards, electricity has become an indispensable secondary energy source in people's production and life, bringing endless convenience to people's production and life. Therefore, ensuring the stable and reliable supply of electricity has become one of the most important tasks of the power system.

[0003] At present, the power market has been fully developed. The operational efficiency of the power market is directly related to the subsequent planning, construction and decision-making of the power market, and is of great significance to the power market and the power system. With the rapid development of the power market, the power market has become more and more complex, and the determination of the operational efficiency of the power market has become more and more important.

[0004] At present, most of the schemes for determining the operational efficiency of the power market use simple calculations based on a few simple indicators to achieve the determination of operational efficiency. Although such schemes are simple, they take fewer factors into consideration and lack comprehensive, scientific and objective determination. Therefore, the determination results are unreliable and inaccurate, which affects the scientific development of the power market. Summary of the invention

[0005] One of the purposes of the present invention is to provide a method for determining the operation efficiency of an electricity market which is highly reliable, accurate, objective and scientific.

[0006] A second objective of the present invention is to provide a system for implementing the method for determining the power market operation efficiency.

[0007] The method for determining the power market operation efficiency provided by the present invention comprises the following steps:

[0008] S1. Obtain data information of the target power market;

[0009] S2. Constructing a set of evaluation factors and a set of evaluation results for the power market based on the data information obtained in step S1;

[0010] S3. Use the analytic hierarchy process to calculate the weight coefficient matrix of the evaluation factor set;

[0011] S4. Design the membership function of each element in the evaluation factor set and construct the membership matrix;

[0012] S5. Calculate the comprehensive evaluation vector of the target power market according to the weight coefficient matrix obtained in step S3 and the membership matrix obtained in step S4;

[0013] S6. According to the comprehensive evaluation vector obtained in step S5 and the evaluation result set constructed in step S2, the determination of the target power market operation efficiency is completed.

[0014] The step S2 of constructing the evaluation factor set and evaluation result set of the power market specifically includes the following steps:

[0015] The evaluation factor set of the power market includes market structure indicators, market behavior indicators, market transaction indicators, market supply and demand relationship indicators, clean energy indicators and market development indicators;

[0016] Market structure indicators include HHI index and Top-m index:

[0017] The HHI index is defined as the sum of the squares of the electricity market share of all power generation companies, expressed as Where HHI is the HHI index, S i is the electricity market share of the ith power generation enterprise, and n is the total number of power generation enterprises;

[0018] The Top-m index is defined as the sum of the electricity market shares of the largest m power generation companies in the electricity market, expressed as Among them, Top m is the Top-m index, S j is the electricity market share of the jth power generation enterprise;

[0019] Market behavior indicators include the deviation assessment power ratio, the low price declaration rate of units and the high price declaration rate of units:

[0020] The calculation formula of the deviation assessment power ratio is expressed as follows: Among them C 偏差 Q is the deviation assessment power ratio, 偏差 is the deviation test power, C 结算 To settle electricity in the market;

[0021] The calculation formula of the unit low price declaration rate is expressed as follows: Among them C hl is the unit low price declaration rate, M is the number of units whose declared prices are lower than the set ratio of the unit power generation cost, and N is all the units participating in the market quotation;

[0022] The calculation formula of the unit high price declaration rate is expressed as follows: Among them C hp is the unit high price declaration rate, K is the number of units whose declared prices are higher than the set ratio of the unit power generation cost;

[0023] Market transaction indicators include the unit's marginal cost index, the proportion of inter-provincial and inter-regional transaction electricity, and the ratio of market-based electricity to provincial sales electricity:

[0024] The formula for calculating the price marginal cost index of the unit is expressed as Where IPCM is the unit’s marginal cost index, P is the average market price, and C is the system marginal cost;

[0025] The calculation formula for the proportion of inter-provincial and inter-regional electricity transactions is expressed as follows: Among them C 跨省 Q is the proportion of inter-provincial and inter-regional electricity transactions, 跨省 For cross-provincial and cross-regional trading of market-based electricity, Q 省内 It is the market-based electricity trading within the province;

[0026] The calculation formula for the ratio of market-based electricity to provincial electricity sales is: Where S is the ratio of market electricity to electricity sales within the province;

[0027] Market supply and demand relationship indicators include the ratio of total capacity of market-oriented units to the maximum load of the entire network, the maximum available capacity of market-oriented units, market competition space, out-of-region power transmission and reception plans, power market supply and demand index and market supply and demand balance relationship;

[0028] The calculation formula for the ratio of the total capacity of market-oriented units to the maximum load of the entire network is expressed as follows: C is the ratio of the total capacity of market-oriented units to the maximum load of the entire network;

[0029] The maximum available capacity of market-based units includes the maximum generating capacity of the units after deducting the units shut down for maintenance during the trading period of market-based units, as well as the market-declared power;

[0030] The calculation formula of market competition space is expressed as CP i =L i +T i -F i , CP i is the market competition space in the ith trading period, L i is the system load forecast value for the ith trading period, T i is the out-of-region power purchase and sales plan for the i-th trading period. If power is purchased, then T i If the electricity is sold, T i is a positive value, F i The output of non-market units in the i-th trading period;

[0031] The out-of-region power transmission and reception plan includes the out-of-region power transmission and reception plan within the transaction period, the maximum power transmission and reception plan value and the minimum power transmission and reception plan value;

[0032] The calculation formula of the power market supply and demand index is expressed as Among them I SD is the power market supply and demand index, G is the total capacity of market-oriented units, DG is a profit and loss indicator of power supply capacity and f is the power transmission capacity coefficient, h is the average power generation utilization hours of the unit, and D is the power demand;

[0033] The market supply and demand balance relationship is defined as follows: if the load forecast is greater than the available capacity, the market supply and demand are unbalanced, and if the load forecast is less than or equal to the available capacity, the market supply and demand are balanced;

[0034] Clean energy indicators include renewable energy power consumption weight, clean energy configuration rate and renewable energy consumption rate:

[0035] The renewable energy power consumption weight is defined as the ratio of the renewable energy power used in the region to the total social power consumption in the region;

[0036] The calculation formula of clean energy configuration rate is expressed as I CEP is the clean energy deployment rate, S CE is the capacity of clean energy units, S GE is the total capacity of generating units of the power generation enterprise;

[0037] The renewable energy absorption rate is defined as the ratio of actual electricity generation from renewable energy sources to total electricity generation in a region or system;

[0038] Market development indicators include the increase in the number of market players and the growth rate of traded electricity:

[0039] The calculation and disclosure of the increase in the number of market players is expressed as Among them C s The increase in the number of market players;

[0040] The growth rate of traded electricity is defined as the rate at which the amount of traded electricity in a region or system increases;

[0041] The evaluation result set of the constructed power market includes "excellent", "good", "average", "poor" and "very poor", and scores are assigned to the elements in the evaluation result set.

[0042] The step S3 of using the analytic hierarchy process to calculate the weight coefficient matrix of the evaluation factor set specifically includes the following steps:

[0043] According to the obtained evaluation factor set, the importance between any two factors i and j is evaluated according to 1 to 9 points, where 1 point means that element i is as important as element j, and 9 points means that element i is more important than element j and the degree is the highest value; at the same time, it is stipulated that if the importance score of element i and element j is k, the importance score of element j and element i is Finally, the judgment matrix of the evaluation factor set is obtained;

[0044] For the obtained judgment matrix, the consistency index CI is calculated as where λ max is the maximum eigenvalue of the judgment matrix, n is the order of the judgment matrix;

[0045] For the obtained judgment matrix, according to the order n of the judgment matrix, the average random consistency index RI is obtained according to the following rules: if n = 1, RI = 0, if n = 2, RI = 0, if n = 3, RI = 0.58, if n = 4, RI = 0.90, if n = 5, RI = 1.12, if n = 6, RI = 1.24, if n = 7, RI = 1.32, if n = 8, RI = 1.41, if n = 9, RI = 1.45;

[0046] For the obtained judgment matrix, the consistency ratio CR is calculated as If RI = 0, then the judgment matrix is ​​usually a second-order matrix. The consistency of the second-order matrix is ​​naturally acceptable, so it is usually considered that there is no need to calculate the CR value, and the consistency can be directly considered acceptable; therefore, the consistency test is considered to have passed;

[0047] According to the consistency ratio CR, the consistency of the judgment matrix is ​​tested: if CR < 0.1, the consistency test passes; if CR ≥ 0.1, the consistency test fails;

[0048] If the consistency test passes, the maximum eigenvalue λ of the judgment matrix is max The corresponding eigenvector is used as the weight coefficient matrix W of the evaluation factor set;

[0049] If the consistency check fails, it is necessary to re-perform the pairwise comparison and adjust the elements in the matrix until the consistency requirements are met.

[0050] The membership function of each element in the design evaluation factor set described in step S4 and the construction of a membership matrix specifically include the following steps:

[0051] According to the membership function of each element in the following evaluation factor set, the membership function value of each element in the evaluation factor set is calculated:

[0052] The membership function of the HHI index is expressed as The membership function of the Top-m index is expressed as The membership function of the deviation assessment power ratio is expressed as The membership function of the unit low price declaration rate is expressed as The membership function of the unit high price declaration rate is expressed as The membership function of the unit's price marginal cost index is expressed as

[0053]

[0054] The membership function of the proportion of inter-provincial and inter-regional electricity transactions is expressed as

[0055]

[0056] The membership function of the ratio S of market-based electricity to provincial electricity sales is expressed as

[0057]

[0058] The membership function of the ratio of the total capacity of market-oriented units to the maximum load of the entire network C is expressed as

[0059]

[0060] The membership function of the maximum available capacity M of the market-oriented units is expressed as

[0061] The membership function of the market competition space is expressed as

[0062] The membership function of the out-of-region power transmission and reception plan is expressed as Index values ​​of the power transmission and receiving plan;

[0063] Electricity Market Supply and Demand Index I SD The membership function is expressed as

[0064] The membership function of the market supply and demand balance relationship D is expressed as

[0065] The membership function of the renewable energy power consumption weight F is expressed as

[0066] Clean energy deployment rate I CEP The membership function is expressed as

[0067] The membership function of renewable energy consumption rate N is expressed as

[0068] The membership function of the increase in the number of market players is expressed as

[0069] The membership function of the growth rate P of transaction power is expressed as

[0070] According to the membership function value of each element in the evaluation factor set, a membership matrix is ​​constructed.

[0071] Step S5, according to the weight coefficient matrix obtained in step S3 and the membership matrix obtained in step S4, calculates the comprehensive evaluation vector of the target power market, which specifically includes the following steps:

[0072] The weight coefficient matrix obtained in step S3 is multiplied by the membership matrix obtained in step S4 to obtain a comprehensive evaluation vector of the target power market.

[0073] Step S6, according to the comprehensive evaluation vector obtained in step S5 and the evaluation result set constructed in step S2, completes the determination of the target power market operation efficiency, and specifically includes the following steps:

[0074] The bth element a in the comprehensive evaluation vector obtained in step S5 b , multiply the scores corresponding to the bth element in the evaluation result set constructed in step S2 in order, and add the results to obtain the judgment score of the target power market operation efficiency;

[0075] The target power market operation efficiency is determined based on the relationship between the determination score of the target power market operation efficiency and the scores corresponding to the elements in the evaluation result set constructed in step S2 .

[0076] The present invention also provides a system for implementing the method for determining the operation efficiency of the power market, comprising a data acquisition module, a system construction module, a weight calculation module, a membership calculation module, a vector calculation module and an efficiency determination module; the data acquisition module, the system construction module, the weight calculation module, the membership calculation module, the vector calculation module and the efficiency determination module are connected in series in sequence; the data acquisition module is used to acquire data information of the target power market and upload the data information to the system construction module; the system construction module is used to construct an evaluation factor set and an evaluation result set of the power market according to the received data information and the acquired data information, and upload the data information to the weight calculation module; the weight calculation module is used to The received data information is used to calculate the weight coefficient matrix of the evaluation factor set using the hierarchical analysis method, and the data information is uploaded to the membership calculation module; the membership calculation module is used to design the membership function of each element in the evaluation factor set according to the received data information, and to construct the membership matrix, and upload the data information to the vector calculation module; the vector calculation module is used to calculate the comprehensive evaluation vector of the target power market according to the received data information, the obtained weight coefficient matrix and the membership matrix, and upload the data information to the efficiency determination module; the efficiency determination module is used to complete the determination of the target power market operation efficiency according to the received data information, the obtained comprehensive evaluation vector and the evaluation result set.

[0077] The method and system for determining the operation efficiency of the power market provided by the present invention construct an evaluation index system for the target power market by acquiring and processing various types of objective parameters of the target power market, and fuzzy processing and calculation are performed on the constructed system, which ultimately not only realizes the determination of the operation efficiency of the power market, but also has higher reliability, better accuracy, and is more objective and scientific. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0078] Figure 1 The figure is a schematic diagram of the method flow of the present invention.

[0079] Figure 2 Schematic diagram of the functional modules of the system of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0080] like Figure 1 The method flow chart of the method of the present invention is shown as follows: The method for determining the power market operation efficiency disclosed in the present invention comprises the following steps:

[0081] S1. Obtain data information of the target power market;

[0082] S2. Based on the data information obtained in step S1, construct an evaluation factor set and an evaluation result set for the power market; specifically, the steps include:

[0083] The evaluation factor set of the power market includes market structure indicators, market behavior indicators, market transaction indicators, market supply and demand relationship indicators, clean energy indicators and market development indicators;

[0084] Market structure indicators include HHI index and Top-m index:

[0085] The HHI index is defined as the sum of the squares of the electricity market share of all power generation companies, expressed as Where HHI is the HHI index, S i is the electricity market share of the ith power generation enterprise, and n is the total number of power generation enterprises; the size of the HHI index depends on the number of power generation enterprises in the market and the degree of inequality of the market share of each power generation enterprise; in a completely monopolistic market, there is only one power generation enterprise with a market share of 100%, and the HHI index is 10000; in a perfectly competitive market, there are many power generation enterprises, and the market share of each power generation enterprise is approximately 0, and the HHI index is close to 0; the HHI index mainly depends on the number of market participants and the size of the market share: the fewer the market members and the more concentrated the market resource allocation, the larger the HHI, indicating that the possibility of abusing monopoly power in the market is greater; when the HHI index is between 1000 and 1800, it is considered that the market is low oligopoly type;

[0086] The Top-m index is defined as the sum of the electricity market shares of the largest m power generation companies in the electricity market, expressed as Among them, Top m is the Top-m index, S j is the electricity market share of the jth power generation enterprise; the Top-m index reflects the overall market concentration. For a specific m, the larger the TOP-m share, the higher the market concentration. In the industrial field, m = 4 is generally taken. When the Top-4 index is greater than 65, it indicates that the market has the nature of oligopoly.

[0087] Market behavior indicators include the deviation assessment power ratio, the low price declaration rate of units and the high price declaration rate of units:

[0088] The calculation formula of the deviation assessment power ratio is expressed as follows: Among them C 偏差 Q is the deviation assessment power ratio, 偏差 is the deviation test power, C 结算 To settle electricity in the market;

[0089] The calculation formula of the unit low price declaration rate is expressed as follows: Among them C hl is the unit low price declaration rate, M is the number of units whose declared prices are lower than the set ratio of the unit's power generation cost, and N is all units participating in the market quotation; if quotations in different time periods are allowed, N is the total number of low price time periods, and M is the number of units*number of time periods;

[0090] The calculation formula of the unit high price declaration rate is expressed as follows: Among them C hp is the high-price declaration rate of the units, K is the number of units whose declared prices are higher than the set ratio of the unit's power generation cost; if quotations in different time periods are allowed, N is the total number of low-price time periods, and M is the number of units * the number of time periods; the larger the high-price declaration rate, the greater the probability that the unit will use market power.

[0091] Market transaction indicators include the unit's marginal cost index, the proportion of inter-provincial and inter-regional transaction electricity, and the ratio of market-based electricity to provincial sales electricity:

[0092] The formula for calculating the price marginal cost index of the unit is expressed as Where IPCM is the marginal cost index of the unit price, P is the average market price, and C is the system marginal cost. IPCM should be within a reasonable range. If it is too large, it may indicate unreasonable unit quotation, imbalance between supply and demand, or market monopoly.

[0093] The calculation formula for the proportion of inter-provincial and inter-regional electricity transactions is expressed as follows: Among them C 跨省 Q is the proportion of inter-provincial and inter-regional electricity transactions, 跨省For cross-provincial and cross-regional trading of market-based electricity, Q 省内 It is the market-based electricity trading within the province;

[0094] The calculation formula for the ratio of market-based electricity to provincial electricity sales is: Where S is the ratio of market-based electricity to electricity sales within the province; this indicator reflects the degree of activity of market players in participating in transactions, and also reflects the maturity of market transactions and operations;

[0095] Market supply and demand relationship indicators include the ratio of total capacity of market-oriented units to the maximum load of the entire network, the maximum available capacity of market-oriented units, market competition space, out-of-region power transmission and reception plans, power market supply and demand index and market supply and demand balance relationship;

[0096] The calculation formula for the ratio of the total capacity of market-oriented units to the maximum load of the entire network is expressed as follows: C is the ratio of the total capacity of market-based units to the maximum load of the entire network; this indicator reflects the supply capacity provided by the market;

[0097] The maximum available capacity of the market-based units includes the maximum generating capacity of the units after deducting the units that have been shut down for maintenance during the trading period of the market-based units, as well as the market-declared power. If it is a new energy forecast unit, its maximum generating capacity is its forecast value.

[0098] The calculation formula of market competition space is expressed as CP i =L i +T i -F i , CP i is the market competition space in the ith trading period, L i is the system load forecast value for the ith trading period, T i is the out-of-region power purchase and sales plan for the i-th trading period. If power is purchased, then T i If the electricity is sold, T i is a positive value, F i The output of non-market units in the i-th trading period;

[0099] The out-of-region power transmission and reception plan includes the out-of-region power transmission and reception plan within the transaction period, the maximum power transmission and reception plan value and the minimum power transmission and reception plan value;

[0100] The calculation formula of the power market supply and demand index is expressed as Among them I SD is the power market supply and demand index, G is the total capacity of market-oriented units, D G is a profit and loss indicator of power supply capacity and f is the power transmission capacity coefficient, h is the average power generation utilization hours of the unit, and D is the power demand; generally, there is I SD >1;

[0101] The market supply and demand balance relationship is defined as: if the load forecast is greater than the available capacity, the market supply and demand are unbalanced, and if the load forecast is less than or equal to the available capacity, the market supply and demand are balanced. This indicator is used to analyze the tension between supply and demand in the market environment, and the tension between supply and demand is ultimately reflected in the high and low prices;

[0102] Clean energy indicators include renewable energy power consumption weight, clean energy configuration rate and renewable energy consumption rate:

[0103] The renewable energy power consumption weight is defined as the ratio of the renewable energy power used in the region to the total social power consumption in the region; the renewable energy power used in the region is the power generated by local renewable energy + the power delivered to the region from renewable energy in other regions - the power delivered to other regions from renewable energy in the region;

[0104] The calculation formula of clean energy configuration rate is expressed as I CEP is the clean energy deployment rate, S CE is the clean energy unit capacity, S GE is the total capacity of generating units of the power generation enterprise;

[0105] The renewable energy absorption rate is defined as the ratio of the actual power generation of renewable energy to the total power generation in a region or system; this indicator reflects the proportion and utilization of renewable energy in the entire energy system;

[0106] Market development indicators include the increase in the number of market players and the growth rate of traded electricity:

[0107] The calculation and disclosure of the increase in the number of market players is expressed as Among them C s The increase in the number of market players. Generally speaking, during the market construction phase, a large number of market players will flood into the electricity market every year.

[0108] The growth rate of traded electricity is defined as the rate of increase in the amount of traded electricity in a region or system; the growth rate of traded electricity should maintain the same trend as the growth rate of total electricity consumption and GDP;

[0109] The evaluation result set of the constructed power market includes "excellent", "good", "average", "poor" and "very poor", and the elements in the evaluation result set are assigned scores; for example, "excellent" is set to 100, "good" is set to 75, "average" is set to 50, "poor" is set to 25, and "very poor" is set to 0;

[0110] S3. Calculate the weight coefficient matrix of the evaluation factor set using the hierarchical analysis method; specifically include the following steps:

[0111] According to the obtained evaluation factor set, the importance between any two factors i and j is evaluated according to 1 to 9 points, where 1 point means that element i is as important as element j, and 9 points means that element i is more important than element j and the degree is the highest value; at the same time, it is stipulated that if the importance score of element i and element j is k, the importance score of element j and element i is Finally, the judgment matrix of the evaluation factor set is obtained;

[0112] For the obtained judgment matrix, the consistency index CI is calculated as where λ max is the maximum eigenvalue of the judgment matrix, n is the order of the judgment matrix;

[0113] For the obtained judgment matrix, according to the order n of the judgment matrix, the average random consistency index RI is obtained according to the following rules: if n = 1, RI = 0, if n = 2, RI = 0, if n = 3, RI = 0.58, if n = 4, RI = 0.90, if n = 5, RI = 1.12, if n = 6, RI = 1.24, if n = 7, RI = 1.32, if n = 8, RI = 1.41, if n = 9, RI = 1.45;

[0114] For the obtained judgment matrix, the consistency ratio CR is calculated as If RI = 0, then the judgment matrix is ​​usually a second-order matrix. The consistency of the second-order matrix is ​​naturally acceptable, so it is usually considered that there is no need to calculate the CR value, and the consistency can be directly considered acceptable; therefore, the consistency test is considered to have passed;

[0115] According to the consistency ratio CR, the consistency of the judgment matrix is ​​tested: if CR < 0.1, the consistency test passes; if CR ≥ 0.1, the consistency test fails;

[0116] If the consistency test passes, the maximum eigenvalue λ of the judgment matrix is max The corresponding eigenvector is used as the weight coefficient matrix W of the evaluation factor set;

[0117] If the consistency check fails, it is necessary to re-perform the pairwise comparison and adjust the elements in the matrix until the consistency requirements are met;

[0118] S4. Design the membership function of each element in the evaluation factor set and construct a membership matrix; specifically, the steps include:

[0119] According to the membership function of each element in the following evaluation factor set, the membership function value of each element in the evaluation factor set is calculated:

[0120] The membership function of the HHI index is expressed as The membership function of the Top-m index is expressed as The membership function of the deviation assessment power ratio is expressed as The membership function of the unit low price declaration rate is expressed as The membership function of the unit high price declaration rate is expressed as The membership function of the unit's price marginal cost index is expressed as

[0121]

[0122] The membership function of the proportion of inter-provincial and inter-regional electricity transactions is expressed as

[0123]

[0124] The membership function of the ratio S of market-based electricity to provincial electricity sales is expressed as

[0125]

[0126] The membership function of the ratio of the total capacity of market-oriented units to the maximum load of the entire network C is expressed as

[0127]

[0128] The membership function of the maximum available capacity M of the market-oriented units is expressed as

[0129] The membership function of the market competition space is expressed as

[0130] The membership function of the out-of-region power transmission and reception plan is expressed as x1 is the index value of the out-of-region power transmission and reception plan;

[0131] Electricity Market Supply and Demand Index I SD The membership function is expressed as

[0132] The membership function of the market supply and demand balance relationship D is expressed as

[0133] The membership function of the renewable energy power consumption weight F is expressed as

[0134] Clean energy deployment rate I CEP The membership function is expressed as

[0135] The membership function of renewable energy consumption rate N is expressed as

[0136] The membership function of the increase in the number of market players is expressed as

[0137] The membership function of the growth rate P of transaction power is expressed as

[0138] According to the membership function value of each element in the evaluation factor set, a membership matrix is ​​constructed;

[0139] S5. Calculate the comprehensive evaluation vector of the target power market according to the weight coefficient matrix obtained in step S3 and the membership matrix obtained in step S4; specifically, the steps include:

[0140] The weight coefficient matrix obtained in step S3 is multiplied by the membership matrix obtained in step S4 to obtain a comprehensive evaluation vector of the target power market;

[0141] S6. According to the comprehensive evaluation vector obtained in step S5 and the evaluation result set constructed in step S2, the determination of the target power market operation efficiency is completed; specifically, the following steps are included:

[0142] The bth element a in the comprehensive evaluation vector obtained in step S5 b , multiply the scores corresponding to the bth element in the evaluation result set constructed in step S2 in order, and add the results to obtain the judgment score of the target power market operation efficiency;

[0143] The target power market operation efficiency is determined based on the relationship between the determination score of the target power market operation efficiency and the scores corresponding to the elements in the evaluation result set constructed in step S2 .

[0144] The method of the present invention is further described below by an embodiment:

[0145] For the sake of brief description, the factor set selected in a certain power market is {HHI, Top-m, deviation assessment power ratio, unit low price declaration rate, unit high price declaration rate, market competition space, power market supply and demand index, IPCM, clean energy configuration rate}, the evaluation set is {excellent, good, general, poor, very poor}, and the corresponding scores are {100, 75, 50, 25, 0};

[0146] The judgment matrix obtained by the hierarchical analysis method is:

[0147]

[0148] The consistency test result is CR=0.0574<0.1, and the test passed;

[0149] Take the normalized eigenvector W = {0.25, 0.16, 0.13, 0.09, 0.06, 0.05, 0.12, 0.07, 0.07} corresponding to its maximum eigenvalue as the weight coefficient matrix;

[0150] If the membership matrix obtained based on the power market operation data is

[0151]

[0152] Then, the weight coefficient matrix is ​​multiplied by the membership matrix to calculate the comprehensive evaluation vector as {0.253, 0.380, 0.230, 0.109, 0.028}; the evaluation set is {excellent, good, average, poor, very poor}, and the corresponding scores are {100, 75, 50, 25, 0};

[0153] The calculated comprehensive score of the target power market is 0.253*100+0.380*75+0.230*50+0.109*25+0.028*0=68.025, so the operating efficiency of the target power market is judged to be good.

[0154] like Figure 2 The functional module diagram of the system of the present invention is shown as follows: the system for realizing the method for determining the operation efficiency of the power market disclosed in the present invention comprises a data acquisition module, a system construction module, a weight calculation module, a membership calculation module, a vector calculation module and an efficiency determination module; the data acquisition module, the system construction module, the weight calculation module, the membership calculation module, the vector calculation module and the efficiency determination module are connected in series in sequence; the data acquisition module is used to acquire data information of the target power market and upload the data information to the system construction module; the system construction module is used to construct an evaluation factor set and an evaluation result set of the power market according to the received data information and the acquired data information, and upload the data information to the weight calculation module; the weight calculation module The calculation module is used to calculate the weight coefficient matrix of the evaluation factor set according to the received data information by using the hierarchical analysis method, and upload the data information to the membership calculation module; the membership calculation module is used to design the membership function of each element in the evaluation factor set according to the received data information, and construct the membership matrix, and upload the data information to the vector calculation module; the vector calculation module is used to calculate the comprehensive evaluation vector of the target power market according to the received data information, the obtained weight coefficient matrix and the membership matrix, and upload the data information to the efficiency determination module; the efficiency determination module is used to complete the determination of the target power market operation efficiency according to the received data information, the obtained comprehensive evaluation vector and the evaluation result set.

Claims

1. A method for determining the efficiency of power market operation, comprising the following steps: S1. Obtain data information of the target power market; S2. Constructing a set of evaluation factors and a set of evaluation results for the power market based on the data information obtained in step S1; S3. Use the analytic hierarchy process to calculate the weight coefficient matrix of the evaluation factor set; S4. Design the membership function of each element in the evaluation factor set and construct the membership matrix; S5. Calculate the comprehensive evaluation vector of the target power market according to the weight coefficient matrix obtained in step S3 and the membership matrix obtained in step S4; S6. According to the comprehensive evaluation vector obtained in step S5 and the evaluation result set constructed in step S2, the determination of the target power market operation efficiency is completed.

2. The method for determining the efficiency of power market operation according to claim 1, characterized in that The step S2 of constructing the evaluation factor set and evaluation result set of the power market specifically includes the following steps: The evaluation factor set of the power market includes market structure indicators, market behavior indicators, market transaction indicators, market supply and demand relationship indicators, clean energy indicators and market development indicators; Market structure indicators include HHI index and Top-m index: The HHI index is defined as the sum of the squares of the electricity market share of all power generation companies, expressed as Where HHI is the HHI index, S i is the electricity market share of the ith power generation enterprise, and n is the total number of power generation enterprises; The Top-m index is defined as the sum of the electricity market shares of the largest m power generation companies in the electricity market, expressed as Among them, Top m is the Top-m index, S j is the electricity market share of the jth power generation enterprise; Market behavior indicators include the deviation assessment power ratio, the low price declaration rate of units and the high price declaration rate of units: The calculation formula of the deviation assessment power ratio is expressed as follows: Among them C 偏差 is the deviation assessment power ratio, Q 偏差 is the deviation test power, C 结算 To settle electricity in the market; The calculation formula of the unit low price declaration rate is expressed as follows: Among them C hl is the unit low price declaration rate, M is the number of units whose declared prices are lower than the set ratio of the unit power generation cost, and N is all the units participating in the market quotation; The calculation formula of the unit high price declaration rate is expressed as follows: Among them C hp is the unit high price declaration rate, K is the number of units whose declared prices are higher than the set ratio of the unit power generation cost; Market transaction indicators include the unit's marginal cost index, the proportion of inter-provincial and inter-regional transaction electricity, and the ratio of market-based electricity to provincial sales electricity: The formula for calculating the price marginal cost index of the unit is expressed as Where IPCM is the unit’s marginal cost index, P is the average market price, and C is the system marginal cost; The calculation formula for the proportion of inter-provincial and inter-regional electricity transactions is expressed as follows: Among them C 跨省 Q is the proportion of inter-provincial and inter-regional electricity transactions, 跨省 For cross-provincial and cross-regional trading of market-based electricity, Q 省内 It is the market-based electricity trading within the province; The calculation formula for the ratio of market-based electricity to provincial electricity sales is: Where S is the ratio of market electricity to electricity sales within the province; Market supply and demand relationship indicators include the ratio of total capacity of market-oriented units to the maximum load of the entire network, the maximum available capacity of market-oriented units, market competition space, out-of-region power transmission and reception plans, power market supply and demand index and market supply and demand balance relationship; The calculation formula for the ratio of the total capacity of market-oriented units to the maximum load of the entire network is expressed as follows: C is the ratio of the total capacity of market-oriented units to the maximum load of the entire network; The maximum available capacity of market-based units includes the maximum generating capacity of the units after deducting the units shut down for maintenance during the trading period of market-based units, as well as the market-declared power; The calculation formula of market competition space is expressed as CP i =L i +T i -F i , CP i is the market competition space in the ith trading period, L i is the system load forecast value for the ith trading period, T i is the out-of-region power purchase and sales plan for the i-th trading period. If power is purchased, then T i If the electricity is sold, T i is a positive value, F i The output of non-market units in the i-th trading period; The out-of-region power transmission and reception plan includes the out-of-region power transmission and reception plan within the transaction period, the maximum power transmission and reception plan value and the minimum power transmission and reception plan value; The calculation formula of the power market supply and demand index is expressed as Among them I SD is the power market supply and demand index, G is the total capacity of market-oriented units, D G is a profit and loss indicator of power supply capacity and f is the power transmission capacity coefficient, h is the average power generation utilization hours of the unit, and D is the power demand; The market supply and demand balance relationship is defined as follows: if the load forecast is greater than the available capacity, the market supply and demand are unbalanced, and if the load forecast is less than or equal to the available capacity, the market supply and demand are balanced; Clean energy indicators include renewable energy power consumption weight, clean energy configuration rate and renewable energy consumption rate: The renewable energy power consumption weight is defined as the ratio of the renewable energy power used in the region to the total social power consumption in the region; The calculation formula of clean energy configuration rate is expressed as I CEP is the clean energy deployment rate, S CE is the capacity of clean energy units, S GE is the total capacity of generating units of the power generation enterprise; The renewable energy absorption rate is defined as the ratio of actual electricity generation from renewable energy sources to total electricity generation in a region or system; Market development indicators include the increase in the number of market players and the growth rate of traded electricity: The calculation and disclosure of the increase in the number of market players is expressed as Among them C s The increase in the number of market players; The growth rate of traded electricity is defined as the rate at which the amount of traded electricity in a region or system increases; The evaluation result set of the constructed power market includes "excellent", "good", "average", "poor" and "very poor", and scores are assigned to the elements in the evaluation result set.

3. The method for determining the efficiency of power market operation according to claim 2, characterized in that The step S3 of using the analytic hierarchy process to calculate the weight coefficient matrix of the evaluation factor set specifically includes the following steps: According to the obtained evaluation factor set, the importance between any two factors i and j is evaluated according to 1 to 9 points, where 1 point means that element i is as important as element j, and 9 points means that element i is more important than element j and the degree is the highest value; at the same time, it is stipulated that if the importance score of element i and element j is k, the importance score of element j and element i is Finally, the judgment matrix of the evaluation factor set is obtained; For the obtained judgment matrix, the consistency index CI is calculated as where λ max is the maximum eigenvalue of the judgment matrix, n is the order of the judgment matrix; For the obtained judgment matrix, according to the order n of the judgment matrix, the average random consistency index RI is obtained according to the following rules: if n = 1, RI = 0, if n = 2, RI = 0, if n = 3, RI = 0.58, if n = 4, RI = 0.90, if n = 5, RI = 1.12, if n = 6, RI = 1.24, if n = 7, RI = 1.32, if n = 8, RI = 1.41, if n = 9, RI = 1.45; For the obtained judgment matrix, the consistency ratio CR is calculated as CR = CI / RI; if RI = 0, it is directly considered that the consistency test has passed; According to the consistency ratio CR, the consistency of the judgment matrix is ​​tested: if CR < 0.1, the consistency test passes; If CR ≥ 0.1, the consistency test fails; If the consistency test passes, the maximum eigenvalue λ of the judgment matrix is max The corresponding eigenvector is used as the weight coefficient matrix W of the evaluation factor set; If the consistency check fails, it is necessary to re-perform the pairwise comparison and adjust the elements in the matrix until the consistency requirements are met.

4. The method for determining the efficiency of power market operation according to claim 3 is characterized in that The membership function of each element in the design evaluation factor set described in step S4 and the construction of a membership matrix specifically include the following steps: According to the membership function of each element in the following evaluation factor set, the membership function value of each element in the evaluation factor set is calculated: The membership function of the HHI index is expressed as The membership function of the Top-m index is expressed as The membership function of the deviation assessment power ratio is expressed as The membership function of the unit low price declaration rate is expressed as The membership function of the unit high price declaration rate is expressed as The membership function of the unit's price marginal cost index is expressed as The membership function of the proportion of inter-provincial and inter-regional electricity transactions is expressed as The membership function of the ratio S of market-based electricity to provincial electricity sales is expressed as The membership function of the ratio of the total capacity of market-oriented units to the maximum load of the entire network C is expressed as The membership function of the maximum available capacity M of the market-oriented units is expressed as The membership function of the market competition space is expressed as The membership function of the out-of-region power transmission and reception plan is expressed as x1 is the index value of the out-of-region power transmission and reception plan; Electricity Market Supply and Demand Index I SD The membership function is expressed as The membership function of the market supply and demand balance relationship D is expressed as The membership function of the renewable energy power consumption weight F is expressed as Clean energy deployment rate I CEP The membership function is expressed as The membership function of renewable energy consumption rate N is expressed as The membership function of the increase in the number of market players is expressed as The membership function of the growth rate P of transaction power is expressed as According to the membership function value of each element in the evaluation factor set, a membership matrix is ​​constructed.

5. The method for determining the efficiency of power market operation according to claim 4, characterized in that Step S5, according to the weight coefficient matrix obtained in step S3 and the membership matrix obtained in step S4, calculates the comprehensive evaluation vector of the target power market, which specifically includes the following steps: The weight coefficient matrix obtained in step S3 is multiplied by the membership matrix obtained in step S4 to obtain a comprehensive evaluation vector of the target power market.

6. The method for determining the efficiency of power market operation according to claim 5, characterized in that Step S6, according to the comprehensive evaluation vector obtained in step S5 and the evaluation result set constructed in step S2, completes the determination of the target power market operation efficiency, and specifically includes the following steps: The bth element a in the comprehensive evaluation vector obtained in step S5 b , multiply the scores corresponding to the bth element in the evaluation result set constructed in step S2 in order, and add the results to obtain the judgment score of the target power market operation efficiency; The target power market operation efficiency is determined based on the relationship between the determination score of the target power market operation efficiency and the scores corresponding to the elements in the evaluation result set constructed in step S2 .

7. A system for implementing the method for determining the power market operation efficiency according to any one of claims 1 to 6, characterized in that It includes a data acquisition module, a system construction module, a weight calculation module, a membership calculation module, a vector calculation module and an efficiency determination module; the data acquisition module, the system construction module, the weight calculation module, the membership calculation module, the vector calculation module and the efficiency determination module are connected in series in sequence; the data acquisition module is used to obtain data information of the target power market and upload the data information to the system construction module; the system construction module is used to construct an evaluation factor set and an evaluation result set of the power market according to the received data information and the acquired data information, and upload the data information to the weight calculation module; The weight calculation module is used to calculate the weight coefficient matrix of the evaluation factor set based on the received data information using the hierarchical analysis method, and upload the data information to the membership calculation module; The membership calculation module is used to design the membership function of each element in the evaluation factor set according to the received data information, construct the membership matrix, and upload the data information to the vector calculation module; The vector calculation module is used to calculate the comprehensive evaluation vector of the target power market according to the received data information, the obtained weight coefficient matrix and the membership matrix. And upload the data information to the efficiency determination module; The efficiency determination module is used to determine the efficiency of the Based on the comprehensive evaluation vector and the evaluation result set, the determination of the target power market operation efficiency is completed.

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