Method for predicting basic reliability index of mechanical part
By analyzing the fault mode of mechanical parts and adopting a functional function -based reliability analysis method, combined with the average fault rate to modify the average fault rate, the accuracy of the accuracy of the basic reliability indicators of mechanical parts in existing technology depends on the problem of statistical samples. The reliability estimation of the lack of statistics of similar/similar parts is implemented.
Patent Information
- Application Number
- CN202411532165.3
- Authority / Receiving Office
- CN · China
- Patent Type
- Applications(China)
- Current Assignee / Owner
- Filing Date
- 2024-10-30
- Publication Date
- 2025-01-28
AI Technical Summary
In the prediction of basic reliability indicators of mechanical parts, the accuracy depends on the number and representativeness of statistical samples, and the reliability prediction cannot be made in the absence of similar/similar part statistics.
By analyzing the fault mode of mechanical parts, it is divided into a fault mode with a functional function model and a fault mode without a functional function model. The reliability analysis method based on a functional function is used Its average failure rate. Combined with the relative relationship of the number of failures that occur with functional models and no functional model models, the average fault rate of the total average fault rate is used to use the average fault rate of the average fault rate to use the correction factor.
Improved the accuracy and correlation of the basic reliability indicators of mechanical parts, reliably estimates to provide reliable input and basis for the basic reliability of mechanical and electromechanical products without statistical data lacking similar/similar parts statistics. data.
Smart Images
Figure CN119378154A_ABST
Abstract
Description
Technical Field
[0001] The present application belongs to the technical field of basic reliability index prediction of mechanical parts, and specifically relates to a basic reliability index prediction method of mechanical parts. Background Art
[0002] Basic reliability indicators are basic reliability parameters that characterize mechanical parts, mainly including average failure rate, mean time between failures (repairable mechanical parts) and mean time before failure (unrepairable mechanical parts).
[0003] Reasonable determination of the estimated values of basic reliability indicators of mechanical parts (such as engine parts, radar parts, etc.) can provide input and basic data for the basic reliability estimation of the supporting mechanical and electromechanical products.
[0004] Currently, the estimated values of basic reliability indicators of mechanical parts are mostly obtained based on data such as failure rates during the use or testing of similar / similar parts. The accuracy of these data depends on the number and representativeness of the statistical samples used. The estimated values have a weak correlation with the functional performance design parameters of the parts, and there is also the problem that reliability prediction cannot be performed without statistical data on similar / similar parts.
[0005] This application is proposed in view of the above-mentioned technical defects. Summary of the invention
[0006] The purpose of this application is to provide a method for predicting basic reliability indicators of mechanical parts to overcome or alleviate at least one of the known technical defects.
[0007] The technical solution of this application is:
[0008] A method for predicting basic reliability indexes of mechanical parts, comprising:
[0009] Mechanical parts failure mode analysis steps: Analyze the failure mode of mechanical parts and divide the failure mode of mechanical parts into failure mode with functional model and failure mode without functional function model;
[0010] The failure mode failure probability determination step of the functional function model is as follows: determining the failure mode failure probability of the functional function model, specifically using a reliability analysis method based on a functional function to determine the failure mode failure probability of the functional function model;
[0011] The steps for calculating the average failure rate of the failure mode of the functional function model are as follows: the average failure rate of the failure mode of the functional function model is calculated based on the failure probability of the failure mode of the functional function model.
[0012] The steps for calculating the total average failure rate of the failure modes of the functional function model are as follows: the total average failure rate of the failure modes of the functional function model is calculated based on the average failure rate of the failure modes of the functional function model.
[0013] Calculation steps for the expected value of the average failure rate of mechanical parts: Refer to the relative relationship between the number of occurrences of the failure mode with the functional function model and the failure mode without the functional function model, obtain the correction factor for the total average failure rate of the failure mode with the functional function model, correct the total average failure rate of the failure mode with the functional function model, and calculate the expected value of the average failure rate of mechanical parts.
[0014] According to at least one embodiment of the present application, in the above-mentioned method for predicting basic reliability indicators of mechanical parts, in the step of determining the failure probability of the failure mode of the functional function model, the failure probability of the failure mode of the functional function model is determined by an approximate analytical method.
[0015] According to at least one embodiment of the present application, in the above-mentioned method for predicting basic reliability indicators of mechanical parts, in the step of determining the failure probability of the failure mode of the functional function model, the failure probability of the failure mode of the functional function model is determined by a digital simulation method.
[0016] According to at least one embodiment of the present application, in the above-mentioned method for predicting basic reliability indicators of mechanical parts, in the step of determining the failure probability of the failure mode of the functional function model, the failure probability of the failure mode of the functional function model is determined by the function substitution method.
[0017] According to at least one embodiment of the present application, in the above-mentioned method for predicting basic reliability indicators of mechanical parts, there is a step of calculating the average failure rate of the failure mode of the functional function model, which is specifically:
[0018]
[0019] in,
[0020] is the average failure rate of the failure mode of the i-th functional model in time (0, t);
[0021] F i (t) is the failure probability of the i-th failure mode of the functional model within the time (0, t).
[0022] According to at least one embodiment of the present application, in the above-mentioned method for predicting basic reliability indicators of mechanical parts, there is a step of calculating the average failure rate of the failure mode of the functional function model, which is specifically:
[0023] R i (t) = 1-F i (t);
[0024]
[0025] in,
[0026] R i (t) is the reliability of the failure mode of the i-th functional model within the time (0, t);
[0027] is the average failure rate of the failure mode of the i-th functional model in time (0, t);
[0028] F i (t) is the failure probability of the i-th failure mode of the functional model within the time (0, t).
[0029] According to at least one embodiment of the present application, in the above-mentioned method for predicting the basic reliability index of mechanical parts, there is a step of calculating the total average failure rate of the failure mode of the functional function model, which is specifically:
[0030]
[0031] in,
[0032] is the average failure rate of the failure mode of the i-th functional model in time (0, t);
[0033] is the total average failure rate of the failure mode with functional model in time (0, t);
[0034] n is the number of failure modes of the functional model.
[0035] According to at least one embodiment of the present application, in the above-mentioned mechanical parts basic reliability index prediction method, in the mechanical parts average failure rate prediction value calculation step, the total average failure rate correction factor of the failure mode with the functional function model is obtained by referring to the relative relationship between the number of occurrences of the failure mode with the functional function model and the failure mode without the functional function model, specifically:
[0036] When using or testing similar / similar parts, the number of times r of the failure mode with a functional function model and the number of times s of the failure mode without a functional function model occur within time (0, t) or an equivalent reference time are counted, and the total average failure rate correction factor k = 1 + s / r of the failure mode with a functional function model is calculated.
[0037] According to at least one embodiment of the present application, in the above-mentioned mechanical parts basic reliability index prediction method, in the mechanical parts average failure rate prediction value calculation step, the total average failure rate correction factor of the failure mode with the functional function model is obtained by referring to the relative relationship between the number of occurrences of the failure mode with the functional function model and the failure mode without the functional function model, specifically:
[0038] The total average failure rate correction factor k of the failure mode with functional function model is calculated by counting the scores of multiple experts who are familiar with the design and use information of mechanical parts, and the total average failure rate correction factor k of the failure mode with functional function model is calculated to be k = (k1+k2+…+k j +…+k z ) / z, where:
[0039] k j The score of the total average failure rate correction factor k of the failure mode with functional function model for the jth expert who is familiar with the design and use information of mechanical parts;
[0040] z is the number of experts familiar with the design and use of mechanical parts information.
[0041] According to at least one embodiment of the present application, the above-mentioned method for estimating basic reliability indicators of mechanical parts further includes:
[0042] Calculation steps for the estimated value of the mean time between failures of mechanical parts: For repairable mechanical parts, calculate the estimated value of the mean time between failures of mechanical parts based on the estimated value of the average failure rate of the mechanical parts.
[0043] According to at least one embodiment of the present application, in the above-mentioned method for predicting the basic reliability index of mechanical parts, the step of calculating the predicted value of the mean time between failures of mechanical parts is specifically as follows:
[0044]
[0045] in,
[0046] MTBF is the estimated value of the mean time between failures of mechanical parts in time (0, t);
[0047] is the total average failure rate of the failure mode with functional model within time (0, t).
[0048] According to at least one embodiment of the present application, the above-mentioned method for estimating basic reliability indicators of mechanical parts further includes:
[0049] Calculation steps for the estimated value of the mean time before failure of mechanical parts: For non-repairable mechanical parts, calculate the estimated value of the mean time before failure of mechanical parts based on the estimated value of the average failure rate of the mechanical parts.
[0050] According to at least one embodiment of the present application, in the above-mentioned method for predicting the basic reliability index of mechanical parts, the step of calculating the predicted value of the mean time before failure of the mechanical parts is specifically as follows:
[0051]
[0052] MTTF is the estimated mean time to failure of mechanical parts;
[0053] is the total average failure rate of the failure mode with functional model within time (0, t).
[0054] This application has at least the following beneficial technical effects:
[0055] A method for predicting basic reliability indicators of mechanical parts is provided. On the basis of determining the failure probability of a failure mode with a function function model using a reliability analysis method based on a function function, the average failure rate and the total average failure rate of the failure mode with a function function model are calculated. Considering that there are some failure modes of mechanical parts without function function models in practice, a correction factor is used to correct the total average failure rate of the failure mode with a function function model, and the predicted value of the average failure rate of the mechanical parts is obtained, and then the predicted value of the average failure interval time or the predicted value of the average pre-failure time of the mechanical parts is obtained. It is determined that the predicted value of the basic reliability indicator is strongly correlated with the design parameters of the mechanical parts, and can provide reliable input and basic data for the basic reliability prediction of the supporting mechanical and electromechanical products. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS
[0056] Figure 1 It is a schematic diagram of a method for predicting basic reliability indicators of mechanical parts provided in an embodiment of the present application.
[0057] In order to better illustrate the present embodiment, some contents of the drawings may be omitted, which is only used for illustrative purposes and should not be construed as limiting the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION
[0058] In order to make the technical solution and advantages of the present application clearer, the technical solution of the present application will be described in further detail in detail and in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings. It can be understood that the specific embodiments described here are only partial embodiments of the present application, which are only used to explain the present application, not to limit the present application. It should be noted that, for the convenience of description, only the parts related to the present application are shown in the accompanying drawings, and other related parts can refer to the general design.
[0059] In addition, unless otherwise defined, the technical terms or scientific terms used in the description of this application shall have the usual meanings understood by those of ordinary skill in the art to which this application belongs. The words used in the description of this application to indicate orientation are only used to indicate relative directions or positional relationships. When the absolute position of the described object changes, its relative positional relationship may also change accordingly. The word "include" used in the description of this application indicates that the elements or objects appearing before the word include the elements or objects listed after the word and their equivalents, but does not exclude other elements or objects.
[0060] In addition, it should be noted that, unless otherwise clearly specified and limited, the words "installation", "connection" and similar terms used in the description of this application should be understood in a broad sense. For example, the connection can be a fixed connection or a detachable connection; it can be a mechanical connection or an electrical connection; it can be a direct connection or an indirect connection through an intermediate medium. Technical personnel in the field can understand its specific meaning in this application according to the specific circumstances.
[0061] A method for predicting basic reliability indicators of mechanical parts, such as Figure 1 shown.
[0062] Mechanical parts failure mode analysis steps:
[0063] The failure modes of mechanical parts are analyzed and divided into failure modes with functional models and failure modes without functional models.
[0064] The steps to determine the failure probability of the failure mode with the functional model are:
[0065] Determine the failure probability of the failure mode of the functional function model. Specifically, a reliability analysis method based on the functional function can be used to determine the failure probability of the failure mode of the functional function model.
[0066] The reliability analysis method based on the functional function can specifically be an approximate analytical method, a digital simulation method or a function substitution method.
[0067] The failure probability of the i-th failure mode with functional model in time (0, t) is expressed as F i (t), i = 1, 2, ..., n, where n is the number of failure modes with functional models.
[0068] The calculation steps of the average failure rate of the failure mode with the functional model are:
[0069] The average failure rate of the failure mode of the functional function model is calculated based on the failure probability of the failure mode of the functional function model.
[0070] The average failure rate of the failure mode of the i-th functional model in time (0, t) is expressed as have:
[0071] or R i (t) = 1-F i (t), where R i (t) is the reliability of the failure mode of the i-th functional model within the time (0, t).
[0072] The calculation steps of the total average failure rate of the failure mode with the functional model are:
[0073] The total average failure rate of the failure mode of the functional function model is calculated based on the average failure rate of the failure mode of the functional function model.
[0074] The total average failure rate of the failure mode with functional model in time (0, t) is expressed as have:
[0075]
[0076] Calculation steps for the expected average failure rate of mechanical parts:
[0077] The total average failure rate of the failure mode without functional model in time (0, t) is expressed as Then the average failure rate of mechanical parts in time (0, t) is expected to be Since there is no functional model for the failure mode, the total average failure rate within time (0, t) is expressed as It cannot be calculated directly, but the relative relationship between the failure modes with functional function models and the failure modes without functional function models can be used to obtain the total average failure rate correction factor of the failure modes with functional function models, and the total average failure rate of the failure modes with functional function models can be corrected to calculate the expected value of the average failure rate of mechanical parts.
[0078] The total average failure rate correction factor of the failure mode with the functional function model is expressed as k, which is:
[0079]
[0080] The total average failure rate correction factor k of the failure mode with a functional function model can be determined by analyzing the failure data information of similar / similar parts. Specifically, the number of times r of the failure mode with a functional function model and the number of times s of the failure mode without a functional function model occur during the use or testing of similar / similar parts within the time (0, t) or the equivalent reference time can be counted to obtain the total average failure rate correction factor k of the failure mode with a functional function model.
[0081] k=1+s / r.
[0082] The total average failure rate correction factor k of the failure mode with functional function model can also be determined by the expert scoring method. Specifically, the scores of the total average failure rate correction factor k of the failure mode with functional function model by multiple experts who are familiar with the design and use information of mechanical parts can be counted to obtain the total average failure rate correction factor k of the failure mode with functional function model by calculation.
[0083] The score of the jth expert who is familiar with the design and use information of mechanical parts for the total average failure rate correction factor k of the failure mode with functional function model is expressed as k j , j = 1, 2, ..., z, where z is the number of experts familiar with mechanical parts design and use information, there are:
[0084] k=(k1+k2+…+k j +…+k z ) / z.
[0085] When calculating the total average failure rate correction factor k for the failure mode with a functional model, it is preferably determined by analyzing the failure data information of similar / similar parts.
[0086] Calculation steps for the estimated value of mean time between failures of mechanical parts:
[0087] For repairable mechanical parts, the estimated average failure rate of the mechanical parts is used to calculate the estimated average time interval between failures of the mechanical parts.
[0088] The estimated value of the mean time between failures of mechanical parts in time (0, t) is expressed as MTBF, which is:
[0089]
[0090] Calculation steps for the estimated value of mean time before failure of mechanical parts:
[0091] For non-repairable mechanical parts, the average estimated failure rate of the mechanical parts is used to calculate the average estimated time before failure of the mechanical parts.
[0092] The mean time to failure of mechanical parts is expressed as MTTF, which is:
[0093]
[0094] The method for predicting basic reliability indicators of mechanical parts disclosed in the above-mentioned embodiment, based on the reliability analysis method based on the function function, determines the failure probability of the failure mode with the function function model, and calculates the average failure rate and the total average failure rate of the failure mode with the function function model. Taking into account that there are some failure modes of mechanical parts without function function models in practice, the total average failure rate of the failure mode with the function function model is corrected by a correction factor to obtain the predicted value of the average failure rate of the mechanical parts, and then the predicted value of the average failure interval time or the predicted value of the average pre-failure time of the mechanical parts is obtained. It is determined that the predicted value of the basic reliability indicator is strongly correlated with the design parameters of the mechanical parts, and can provide reliable input and basic data for the basic reliability prediction of the supporting mechanical and electromechanical products.
[0095] So far, the technical solution of the present application has been described in conjunction with the preferred embodiments shown in the accompanying drawings. Those skilled in the art should understand that the scope of protection of the present application is obviously not limited to these specific embodiments. Without departing from the principles of the present application, those skilled in the art can make equivalent changes or substitutions to the relevant technical features, and the technical solutions after these changes or substitutions will fall within the scope of protection of the present application.
Claims
1. A method for predicting basic reliability indicators of mechanical parts, characterized in that: include: Mechanical parts failure mode analysis steps: Analyze the failure mode of mechanical parts and divide the failure mode of mechanical parts into failure mode with functional model and failure mode without functional function model; The failure mode failure probability determination step of the functional function model is as follows: determining the failure mode failure probability of the functional function model, specifically using a reliability analysis method based on a functional function to determine the failure mode failure probability of the functional function model; The steps for calculating the average failure rate of the failure mode of the functional function model are as follows: the average failure rate of the failure mode of the functional function model is calculated based on the failure probability of the failure mode of the functional function model. The steps for calculating the total average failure rate of the failure modes of the functional function model are as follows: the total average failure rate of the failure modes of the functional function model is calculated based on the average failure rate of the failure modes of the functional function model. Calculation steps for the expected value of the average failure rate of mechanical parts: Refer to the relative relationship between the number of occurrences of the failure mode with the functional function model and the failure mode without the functional function model, obtain the correction factor for the total average failure rate of the failure mode with the functional function model, correct the total average failure rate of the failure mode with the functional function model, and calculate the expected value of the average failure rate of mechanical parts.
2. The method for predicting basic reliability indexes of mechanical parts according to claim 1, characterized in that: In the step of determining the failure probability of the failure mode of the functional model, the failure probability of the failure mode of the functional model is determined by an approximate analytical method.
3. The method for predicting basic reliability indexes of mechanical parts according to claim 1, characterized in that: In the step of determining the failure probability of the failure mode of the functional model, the failure probability of the failure mode of the functional model is determined by a digital simulation method.
4. The method for predicting basic reliability indexes of mechanical parts according to claim 1, characterized in that: In the step of determining the failure mode failure probability of the functional function model, the failure mode failure probability of the functional function model is determined by a function substitution method.
5. The method for predicting basic reliability indexes of mechanical parts according to claim 1, characterized in that: The calculation steps of the average failure rate of the failure mode with the functional model are as follows: in, is the average failure rate of the failure mode of the i-th functional model in time (0, t); F i (t) is the failure probability of the i-th failure mode of the functional model within the time (0, t).
6. The method for predicting basic reliability indexes of mechanical parts according to claim 1, characterized in that: The calculation steps of the average failure rate of the failure mode with the functional model are as follows: R i (t)=1-F i (t); in, R i (t) is the reliability of the failure mode of the i-th functional model within the time (0, t); is the average failure rate of the failure mode of the i-th functional model in time (0, t); F i (t) is the failure probability of the i-th failure mode of the functional model within the time (0, t).
7. The method for predicting basic reliability indexes of mechanical parts according to claim 1, characterized in that: The calculation steps of the total average failure rate of the failure mode with the functional model are as follows: in, is the average failure rate of the failure mode of the i-th functional model in time (0, t); is the total average failure rate of the failure mode with functional model in time (0, t); n is the number of failure modes of the functional model.
8. The method for predicting basic reliability indexes of mechanical parts according to claim 1, characterized in that: In the calculation step of the predicted value of the average failure rate of mechanical parts, the total average failure rate correction factor of the failure mode with the functional function model is obtained by referring to the relative relationship between the number of occurrences of the failure mode with the functional function model and the failure mode without the functional function model, which is specifically: When using or testing similar / similar parts, the number of times r of the failure mode with a functional function model and the number of times s of the failure mode without a functional function model occur within time (0, t) or an equivalent reference time are counted, and the total average failure rate correction factor k = 1 + s / r of the failure mode with a functional function model is calculated.
9. The method for predicting basic reliability indexes of mechanical parts according to claim 8, characterized in that: In the calculation step of the predicted value of the average failure rate of mechanical parts, the total average failure rate correction factor of the failure mode with the functional function model is obtained by referring to the relative relationship between the number of occurrences of the failure mode with the functional function model and the failure mode without the functional function model, which is specifically: The total average failure rate correction factor k of the failure mode with functional function model is calculated by counting the scores of multiple experts who are familiar with the design and use information of mechanical parts, and the total average failure rate correction factor k of the failure mode with functional function model is calculated to be k = (k1+k2+…+k j +…+k z ) / z, where: k j The score of the total average failure rate correction factor k of the failure mode with functional function model for the jth expert who is familiar with the design and use information of mechanical parts; z is the number of experts familiar with the design and use of mechanical parts information.
10. The method for predicting basic reliability indexes of mechanical parts according to claim 1, characterized in that: Also includes: Calculation steps for the estimated value of the mean time between failures of mechanical parts: For repairable mechanical parts, calculate the estimated value of the mean time between failures of mechanical parts based on the estimated value of the average failure rate of the mechanical parts.
11. The method for predicting basic reliability indexes of mechanical parts according to claim 10, characterized in that: The calculation steps for the estimated value of the mean time between failures of mechanical parts are as follows: in, MTBF is the estimated value of the mean time between failures of mechanical parts in time (0, t); is the total average failure rate of the failure mode with functional model within time (0, t).
12. The method for predicting basic reliability indexes of mechanical parts according to claim 1, characterized in that: Also includes: Calculation steps for the estimated value of the mean time before failure of mechanical parts: For non-repairable mechanical parts, calculate the estimated value of the mean time before failure of mechanical parts based on the estimated value of the average failure rate of the mechanical parts.
13. The method for predicting basic reliability indexes of mechanical parts according to claim 12, characterized in that: The specific calculation steps for the estimated value of the mean time before failure of mechanical parts are as follows: MTTF It is the estimated value of mean time before failure of mechanical parts; is the total average failure rate of the failure mode with functional model within time (0, t).