Method for assessing resilience of water and wind power generation system under multiple wind and weather extreme events

Abstract

The application discloses a kind of water wind and light power generation system resilience evaluation methods under multiple wind and light extreme events, which includes the following steps: step 1, simulates the operation process of water wind and light power generation system when two extreme events affecting wind and light power generation encounter in different stages, determines the stage of two extreme events encounter;Step 2, according to the different encounter stages of two extreme events, the resilience index quantification of water wind and light power generation system resistance stage, adaptation stage, recovery stage;Step 3, the encounter situation of water wind and light power generation system two extreme events in different stages is comprehensively evaluated resilience.This application quantifies single extreme event and multiple extreme events in different stages, and considers the resilience quantification of water wind and light power generation system output exceeding load demand according to resource characteristics and output limit, provides reference for water wind and light power generation system resilience quantification, and has certain popularization value.

Description

TECHNICAL FIELD

[0001] The present application relates to the field of power system resilience evaluation, in particular to a water-wind-solar power system resilience evaluation method under multiple wind-solar extreme events. BACKGROUND

[0002] With the formulation of the "carbon peak and carbon neutral" goal, high proportion of new energy has become a prominent feature of future development of power systems. The coordinated operation of hydropower, wind power and photovoltaic forms a water-wind-solar power system, which can effectively alleviate the impact of new energy grid connection. Water, wind and light are natural resources, which are more susceptible to environmental influences. In recent years, affected by climate change, extreme weather such as high temperature, blizzards and rainstorms have occurred frequently, and the stable operation of water-wind-solar power system has encountered severe challenges. Resilience is one of the key indicators to measure the stable operation performance of power system under extreme events, and the stronger the resilience of water-wind-solar power system, the stronger the resistance to extreme events such as high temperature, blizzards and rainstorms. Therefore, it is particularly important to quantify the resilience of water-wind-solar power system,

[0003] Therefore, it is necessary to design a water-wind-solar power system resilience evaluation method under multiple wind-solar extreme events to overcome the above problems. SUMMARY

[0004] In order to avoid the above problems, a water-wind-solar power system resilience evaluation method under multiple wind-solar extreme events is provided, which is simple in structure, convenient to operate, flexible and practical, and can accurately detect the size and position of the lesion, better prepare for subsequent treatment and more accurate basis.

[0005] The water-wind-solar power system resilience evaluation method under multiple wind-solar extreme events provided by the present application comprises the following steps:

[0006] Step 1, simulate the operation process of the water-wind-solar power system under two extreme events at different time periods to determine the two extreme event encountering stages;

[0007] Step 2, according to the different encountering stages of the two extreme events, quantifying the resilience indicators of the water-wind-solar power system in the resistance stage, the adaptation stage and the recovery stage;

[0008] Step 3, comprehensively evaluating the resilience of the water-wind-solar power system in the two extreme event encountering stages.

[0009] Preferably, the resilience of the resistance stage, the adaptation stage and the recovery stage is evaluated by vulnerability, robustness and recovery, respectively.

[0010] Preferably, during the period from the occurrence of the extreme event to the recovery of the water, wind and solar power generation system, according to the change of the absolute deviation percentage complement, it is divided into a resistance stage, an adaptation stage and a recovery stage; wherein the absolute deviation percentage complement calculation formula is:

[0011]

[0012] In the formula, |η| is the absolute deviation percentage complement, output is the output of the water, wind and solar power generation system, and load is the load.

[0013] Preferably, the resistance stage is a stage of decreasing absolute deviation percentage complement, the adaptation stage is a stage of constant absolute deviation percentage complement, and the recovery stage is a stage of increasing absolute deviation percentage complement.

[0014] Preferably, the second extreme event is encountered in the resistance stage of the first extreme event, and the resilience evaluation includes the following specific steps:

[0015] a. Resistance stage t1-t2: the first extreme event occurs at t1, and then the absolute deviation percentage complement of the water, wind and solar power generation system starts to decrease from |η|0. In the process of decreasing, the second extreme event is encountered, and the absolute deviation percentage complement continues to decrease, and at t2, it decreases to the minimum |η| m , and the vulnerability is measured as follows:

[0016] R F =|η|0-|η| m ,

[0017] ΔR F =|η| m / |η|0;

[0018] In the formula, |η|0 is the absolute deviation percentage complement at the initial time t1, |η| m is the absolute deviation percentage complement at t2, R F is the absolute value of vulnerability, and the larger the value, the more vulnerable the system is; and ΔR F is the relative value of vulnerability, and the value range is [0, 1], and the smaller the value, the more vulnerable the system is.

[0019] b. Adaptation stage t2-t3: the absolute deviation percentage complement of the water, wind and solar power generation system decreases to the minimum |η| m at t2, and continues to t3, and the robustness is measured as follows:

[0020]

[0021] In the formula, |η| t is the absolute deviation percentage complement at a certain time t, and R RR is the absolute value of robustness, the larger the value, the stronger the robustness of the system; AR R is the relative value of robustness, the value range is [0, 1], the larger the value, the stronger the robustness of the system;

[0022] c. Recovery phase t3-t4: the system starts to recover at t3 time, until t4 time to recover to normal operation state, the recovery of the system is measured as follows:

[0023] R RP = t4-t3,

[0024] AR RP = 1-(t4-t3) / (t4-t1);

[0025] In the formula, R RP is the absolute value of recovery, the smaller the value, the shorter the recovery time of the system, that is, the stronger the recovery; AR RP is the relative value of recovery, the value range is [0, 1], the larger the value, the smaller the proportion of recovery time of the system relative to the entire extreme event duration, that is, the stronger the recovery.

[0026] Preferably, the second extreme event is encountered in the adaptation phase of the first extreme event, and the resilience evaluation includes the following specific steps:

[0027] a. Resistance phase t1-t2, t1 ′ ~ t2 ′ : t1 time of the first extreme event, then the absolute deviation percentage complement of the water, wind and light power generation system starts to decline from |η|0, t2 decline time to a certain value, enter the adaptation phase, in the adaptation phase t1 ′ time of the second extreme event is encountered, the absolute deviation percentage complement continues to decline, and at t2 ′ time, the absolute deviation percentage complement drops to the minimum |η| m , the vulnerability of the system is measured as follows:

[0028] R F = |η|0- |η| m ,

[0029] AR F = |η| m / |η|0;

[0030] In the formula, |η|0 is the absolute deviation percentage complement at the initial time t0, |η| m is the absolute deviation percentage complement at t2 ′ time, R F is the absolute value of vulnerability, the larger the value, the more vulnerable the system; AR Fis a relative value of vulnerability, with a range of [0, 1], the smaller the value, the more vulnerable the system is;

[0031] b. Adaptation phase t2~t1 ′ ,t2 ′ ~t3: defense phase absolute deviation percentage complement t2 ′ at the moment drops to the lowest and lasts to t3, the measure of robustness is as follows:

[0032]

[0033] In the formula, |η| t is the absolute deviation percentage complement of a certain moment t, R R is the absolute value of robustness, the larger the value, the stronger the system robustness is; ΔR R is a relative value of robustness, with a range of [0, 1], the larger the value, the stronger the system robustness is;

[0034] c. Recovery phase t3~t4: the system starts to recover at t3, until t4, the recovery is measured as follows:

[0035] R RP =t4-t3,

[0036] ΔR RP =1-(t4-t3) / (t4-t1);

[0037] In the formula, R RP is the absolute value of recovery, the smaller the value, the shorter the system recovery time is, that is, the stronger the recovery is; ΔR RP is a relative value of recovery, with a range of [0, 1], the larger the value, the smaller the proportion of system recovery time relative to the entire extreme event duration, that is, the stronger the recovery is.

[0038] Preferably, the second extreme event is encountered in the recovery phase of the first extreme event, and the resilience evaluation includes the following specific steps:

[0039] a. Defense phase t1~t2, t1 ′ ~t2 ′ : the first extreme event occurs at t1, the absolute deviation percentage complement of the water, wind and light power generation system starts to drop from |η|0, t2 drops to a certain value, enters the adaptation phase, t3, the system starts to recover, and the second extreme event is encountered at t1 ′ in the recovery phase, the absolute deviation percentage complement continues to drop, and at t2 ′ drops to the lowest |η| m , the measure of vulnerability is as follows:

[0040] R F = |η|0 - |η| m ,

[0041] ΔR F = |η| m - |η|0;

[0042] where |η|0 is the absolute deviation percentage complement at initial time t0, |η| m is the absolute deviation percentage complement at time t2 ′ , R F is the absolute value of vulnerability, the greater the value, the more vulnerable the system; ΔR F is the relative value of vulnerability, the value range is [0, 1], the smaller the value, the more vulnerable the system;

[0043] b. Adaptation phase t2~t3, t2 ′ ~t ′ 3: t2 drops to a certain value, enters the adaptation phase, t3 time system starts to recover, t2 ′ time drops to the lowest |η| m , enters the adaptation phase again, t ′ 3 time system starts to recover again, the measure of robustness is as follows:

[0044]

[0045] where |η| t is the absolute deviation percentage complement at time t, R R is the absolute value of robustness, the greater the value, the stronger the robustness of the system; ΔR R is the relative value of robustness, the value range is [0, 1], the greater the value, the stronger the robustness of the system;

[0046] c. Recovery phase t3~t1 ′ ,t ′ 3~t4: t3 time system starts to recover, enters the recovery phase, in the recovery phase t1 ′ time encounters the second extreme event, t ′ 3 time system starts to recover again, until t4 time recovers to normal operation state, the measure of recovery is as follows:

[0047] R RP = (t4-t ′ 3) + (t1 ′ -t3),

[0048] ΔR RP = 1-((t4-t ′ 3) + (t1 ′(t3-t1) / (t4-t1) ;

[0049] In the formula, R RP is the absolute value of the resilience, the smaller the value, the shorter the system recovery time, that is, the stronger the resilience; ΔR RP is the relative value of the resilience, the value range is [0, 1], the larger the value, the smaller the proportion of the system recovery time relative to the entire extreme event duration, that is, the stronger the resilience.

[0050] Preferably, the resilience of the water, wind and light power generation system is comprehensively evaluated, and a weighted manner is adopted to calculate the specific value of the resilience of the water, wind and light power generation system as a whole, as follows:

[0051] R = ω F × ΔR F + ω R × ΔR R + ω RP × ΔR RP ;

[0052] In the formula, ω F is the weight of vulnerability, ω R is the weight of robustness, ω RP is the weight of resilience, and R is the comprehensive evaluation value of the resilience, the larger the value, the stronger the resilience of the system.

[0053] Compared with the prior art, the present application has the following beneficial effects: the present application is mainly applied to quantifying the resilience of the water, wind and light power generation system when multiple extreme events occur, wherein the absolute deviation percentage complement is used as the resilience index, and the resilience of the water, wind and light power generation system is comprehensively evaluated and quantitatively described from the resisting stage, the adapting stage and the recovery stage; compared with the traditional resilience quantitative description, from the quantitative description method, the present application combines the phased quantitative resilience with the comprehensive evaluation to quantitatively describe the resilience of the water, wind and light power generation system; from the considered extreme events, the present application considers the resilience of the water, wind and light power generation system when multiple extreme events occur. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF DRAWINGS

[0054] Figure 1 is a whole flowchart of a preferred embodiment of the present application;

[0055] Figure 2 is an absolute deviation percentage complement process diagram of the water, wind and light power generation system under a single extreme event of a preferred embodiment of the present application;

[0056] Figure 3 is an absolute deviation percentage complement process diagram of the water, wind and light power generation system when the resisting stage of two extreme events occurs of a preferred embodiment of the present application;

[0057] Figure 4The absolute deviation percentage complement process schematic diagram of the water, wind and light power generation system when encountering the twice extreme event adaptation stage of a preferred embodiment of the present application;

[0058] Figure 5 The absolute deviation percentage complement process schematic diagram of the water, wind and light power generation system when encountering the twice extreme event recovery stage of a preferred embodiment of the present application;

[0059] Figure 6 The output process schematic diagram of the water, wind and light power generation system when encountering the twice extreme event recovery stage of a preferred embodiment of the present application. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0060] In order to make the purpose, technical scheme and advantages of the embodiments of the present application clearer, the technical scheme of the present application will be introduced below in combination with the embodiments of the present application and the drawings.

[0061] As shown in the drawings, Figure 1 A water, wind and light power generation system resilience evaluation method under multiple wind and light extreme events, comprising the following steps:

[0062] Step 1, determine the twice extreme event encountering stage by simulating the operation process of the water, wind and light power generation system when encountering the twice extreme events at different time periods;

[0063] Step 2, according to the different encountering stages of the twice extreme events, quantize the resilience indexes of the water, wind and light power generation system in the resistance stage, adaptation stage and recovery stage;

[0064] Step 3, comprehensively evaluate the resilience of the water, wind and light power generation system in the twice extreme event encountering stage.

[0065] During the period from the occurrence of the extreme event to the recovery of the water, wind and light power generation system, according to the change of the absolute deviation percentage complement, it is divided into the resistance stage, adaptation stage and recovery stage; wherein, the absolute deviation percentage complement calculation formula is:

[0066]

[0067] In the formula, |η| is the absolute deviation percentage complement, output is the output of the water, wind and light power generation system, and load is the load.

[0068] The resilience of the resistance stage, adaptation stage and recovery stage is evaluated through the vulnerability, robustness and recovery, respectively. During the period from the occurrence of the single extreme event to the recovery of the water, wind and light power generation system, the process of the absolute deviation percentage complement is divided into the resistance stage, adaptation stage and recovery stage. The resilience of each stage is quantitatively depicted through the vulnerability, robustness and recovery. The resilience quantification of the water, wind and light power generation system when encountering the twice extreme events is based on the single extreme event.

[0069] Specifically, the resistance stage is an absolute deviation percentage complement reduction stage, the adaptation stage is an absolute deviation percentage complement constant stage, and the recovery stage is an absolute deviation percentage complement increase stage. Specifically, there are three cases:

[0070] Case 1: When a second extreme event is encountered in the resistance stage of the first extreme event, the resilience evaluation includes the following specific steps:

[0071] a. Resistance stage t1-t2: The first extreme event occurs at time t1, and then the absolute deviation percentage complement of the water, wind and light power generation system starts to decrease from |η|0. During the decrease, the second extreme event is encountered, and the absolute deviation percentage complement continues to decrease, and at time t2, it decreases to the minimum |η| m The measure of vulnerability is as follows:

[0072] R F = |η|0- |η| m ,

[0073] ΔR F = |η| m / |η|0;

[0074] In the formula, |η|0 is the absolute deviation percentage complement at the initial time t1, |η| m is the absolute deviation percentage complement at time t2, R F is the absolute value of vulnerability, and the larger the value, the more vulnerable the system; ΔR F is the relative value of vulnerability, and the value range is [0, 1], and the smaller the value, the more vulnerable the system;

[0075] b. Adaptation stage t2-t3: At time t2, the absolute deviation percentage complement of the water, wind and light power generation system decreases to the minimum |η| m , and continues to time t3, and the measure of robustness is as follows:

[0076]

[0077] In the formula, |η| t is the absolute deviation percentage complement at time t, R R is the absolute value of robustness, and the larger the value, the stronger the robustness of the system; ΔR R is the relative value of robustness, and the value range is [0, 1], and the larger the value, the stronger the robustness of the system;

[0078] c. Recovery stage t3-t4: At time t3, the system starts to recover, and until time t4, it recovers to the normal operating state, and the measure of recovery is as follows:

[0079] R RP = t4-t3,

[0080] ΔR RP = 1 - (t4 - t3) / (t4 - t1);

[0081] wherein R RP is the absolute value of resilience, the smaller the value, the shorter the recovery time of the system, i.e. the stronger the resilience; ΔR RP is the relative value of resilience, the larger the value, the smaller the proportion of the recovery time of the system relative to the entire extreme event duration, i.e. the stronger the resilience.

[0082] Case 2: When a second extreme event is encountered in the adaptation phase of the first extreme event, the resilience evaluation includes the following specific steps:

[0083] a. Resistance phase t1~t2, t1 ′ ~t2 ′ : At t1, the first extreme event occurs, and then the absolute deviation percentage complement of the water, wind and light power generation system starts to decrease from |η|0, and at t2, the absolute deviation percentage complement decreases to a certain value and enters the adaptation phase. At t1 ′ , a second extreme event is encountered in the adaptation phase, and the absolute deviation percentage complement continues to decrease. At t2 ′ , the absolute deviation percentage complement decreases to the minimum |η| m , and the vulnerability is measured as follows:

[0084] R F = |η|0- |η| m ,

[0085] ΔR F = |η| m / |η|0;

[0086] wherein |η|0is the absolute deviation percentage complement at the initial time t0, |η| m is the absolute deviation percentage complement at t2 ′ , R F is the absolute value of vulnerability, the larger the value, the more vulnerable the system; ΔR F is the relative value of vulnerability, the smaller the value, the more vulnerable the system;

[0087] b. Adaptation phase t2~t1 ′ , t2 ′ ~t3: The first extreme event enters the resistance phase from t2 and lasts to t1 ′ , and the second extreme event enters the resistance phase again, and the absolute deviation percentage complement decreases to the minimum at t2 ′ and lasts to t3, and the robustness is measured as follows:

[0088]

[0089] where |η| is the absolute deviation percentage complement at time t t R is the absolute value of robustness, the larger the value, the stronger the system robustness; ΔR R is the relative value of robustness, the value range is [0, 1], the larger the value, the stronger the system robustness; R

[0090] c. Recovery phase t3-t4: the system starts to recover at time t3 and recovers to normal operation state at time t4, the recovery is measured as follows:

[0091] R RP = t4-t3,

[0092] ΔR RP = 1-(t4-t3) / (t4-t1);

[0093] where R RP is the absolute value of recovery, the smaller the value, the shorter the system recovery time, i.e. the stronger the recovery; ΔR RP is the relative value of recovery, the value range is [0, 1], the larger the value, the smaller the proportion of system recovery time relative to the entire extreme event duration, i.e. the stronger the recovery.

[0094] Case 3: When the second extreme event is encountered in the recovery phase of the first extreme event, the resilience evaluation includes the following specific steps:

[0095] a. Resistance phase t1-t2, t1 ′ ~ t2 ′ : the first extreme event occurs at time t1, and the absolute deviation percentage complement of the water, wind and light power generation system starts to decrease from |η|0, and at time t2, the absolute deviation percentage complement decreases to a certain value, entering the adaptation phase, and at time t3, the system starts to recover, and at the recovery phase t1 ′ , the second extreme event is encountered, and the absolute deviation percentage complement continues to decrease, and at time t2 ′ , the absolute deviation percentage complement decreases to the minimum |η| m , and the vulnerability is measured as follows:

[0096] R F = |η|0- |η| m ,

[0097] ΔR F = |η| m / |η|0;

[0098] where |η|0is the absolute deviation percentage complement at the initial time t0, and |η| m is the absolute deviation percentage complement at time t2​′ Absolute deviation percentage complement of time instant, R F Absolute value of vulnerability, the larger the value, the more vulnerable the system is; AR F Relative value of vulnerability, the value range is [0, 1], the smaller the value, the more vulnerable the system is;

[0099] b. Adaptation phase t2~t3, t2 ′ ~t ′ 3: t2 falls to a certain value, enters the adaptation phase, t3 the system starts to recover, at t2 ′ The lowest |η| m , enters the adaptation phase again, t ′ 3 the system starts to recover again, the measure of robustness is as follows:

[0100]

[0101] In the formula, |η| t Absolute deviation percentage complement of time instant, R R Absolute value of robustness, the larger the value, the stronger the robustness of the system is; AR R Relative value of robustness, the value range is [0, 1], the larger the value, the stronger the robustness of the system is;

[0102] c. Recovery phase t3~t1 ′ ,t ′ 3~t4: t3 the system starts to recover, enters the recovery phase, in the recovery phase t1 ′ The second extreme event is encountered, t ′ 3 the system starts to recover again, until t4 the recovery to normal operation state, the measure of recovery is as follows:

[0103] R RP = (t4-t ′ 3) + (t1 ′ -t3),

[0104] AR RP = 1-((t4-t ′ 3) + (t1 ′ -t3)) / (t4-t1);

[0105] In the formula, R RP Absolute value of recovery, the smaller the value, the shorter the recovery time of the system, that is, the stronger the recovery; AR RP Relative value of recovery, the value range is [0, 1], the larger the value, the smaller the proportion of the recovery time of the system relative to the entire extreme event, that is, the stronger the recovery.

[0106] Finally, the resilience of the water, wind and solar power generation system is comprehensively evaluated, and the specific value of the resilience of the water, wind and solar power generation system is calculated by weighting, as follows:

[0107] R = ω F × ΔR F + ω R × ΔR R + ω RP × ΔR RP ;

[0108] In the formula, ω F is the weight of vulnerability, ω R is the weight of robustness, ω RP is the weight of recovery, and R is the comprehensive evaluation value of resilience, and the greater the value, the stronger the system resilience.

[0109] As shown in Figures 1-6 , the embodiment of the present application provides a method for quantitatively depicting the resilience of a water, wind and solar power generation system based on a single extreme event and using a percentage deviation supplement under multiple extreme events. The absolute percentage deviation supplement process of the water, wind and solar power generation system under a single extreme event is as shown in Figure 2 .

[0110] Taking two extreme events as an example, the encounter may occur in the resistance, adaptation or recovery phase, as shown in Figure 3 , 4 , 5. The present application takes the recovery phase of two extreme events as an example for illustration, and it can be known from Figure 6 that when the second extreme event is encountered in the recovery phase of the first extreme event, the system will again experience the resistance, adaptation and recovery phases, and finally return to the normal operation phase, and the difference is that the recovery time is divided into two parts, and the specific steps are as follows:

[0111] a. Resistance phase (9 o'clock-10 o'clock, 12 o'clock-13 o'clock): As can be known from Figure 6 , 9 o'clock-10 o'clock is the resistance phase of the first extreme event, and 12 o'clock-13 o'clock is the resistance phase of the encounter of the second extreme event. At 9 o'clock (unit: h), the wind power output of the water, wind and solar power generation system drops sharply, and the absolute percentage deviation supplement starts to decrease from 100%, and then the water, wind and solar power generation system resists, and decreases to 88.8% at 10 o'clock. At 12 o'clock, the photovoltaic power output increases sharply, so that the water, wind and solar power generation system generates more power than the load demand, which also poses a certain threat to the stability of the system, and decreases to the minimum of 87.1% at 13 o'clock, and the vulnerability is measured as follows:

[0112] R F1 = 100-88.8 = 11.2,

[0113] ΔR F1 = 88.8 / 100 = 0.888,

[0114] R F2 = 100 - 87.1 = 12.9,

[0115] ΔR F2 = 87.1 / 100 = 0.871;

[0116] b. Adaptation phase (10th hour ~ 11th hour, 13th hour ~ 14th hour): The 10th hour ~ 11th hour is the adaptation phase of the first extreme event, and the 13th hour ~ 14th hour is the adaptation phase of encountering the second extreme event. At the 10th hour, the water, wind and solar power generation system enters the adaptation phase, and at the 11th hour, the absolute deviation percentage complement of the system drops to 89.2%. When encountering the second extreme event, at the 13th hour, the absolute deviation percentage complement of the water, wind and solar power generation system in the second adaptation phase drops to a lower value, and the absolute deviation percentage complement is 86.3% and lasts until the 14th hour. This phase reflects the robustness of the water, wind and solar power generation system, which is measured as follows:

[0117]

[0118] ΔR R1 = 89.2 / 100 = 0.892,

[0119]

[0120] ΔR R2 = 86.3 / 100 = 0.863,

[0121] c. Recovery phase (11th hour ~ 12th hour, 14th hour ~ 16th hour): The 11th hour ~ 12th hour is the recovery phase of the first extreme event, and the 14th hour ~ 16th hour is the recovery phase of encountering the second extreme event. The recovery metric is as follows:

[0122] R RP1 = 12 - 11 = 1,

[0123] R RP2 = 19 - 14 = 5,

[0124] R RP′ = 1 + 5 = 6,

[0125] ΔR RP′ = 1 - 6 / 10 = 0.4,

[0126] Comprehensive evaluation (9th hour ~ 16th hour), as Figure 6As shown, the two extreme events are controlled in the whole stage to add up to 1, and the weights of the resistance stage 2, the adaptation stage 2 and the recovery stage are respectively set to 0.4, 0.3 and 0.4 according to experience.

[0127] R ′ = 0.4 * 0.871 + 0.3 * 0.863 + 0.4 * 0.4 = 0.77

[0128] In summary, in the embodiment, the extreme event single and multiple extreme events in different stages are quantified, and the extreme weather occurrence, the wind and light output sudden increase, the minimum output limit of the water, wind and light power generation system, and the resilience quantification of the water, wind and light power generation system output exceeding the load demand are considered, thereby providing a reference for quantifying the resilience of the water, wind and light power generation system.

[0129] The overall flowchart of the present application is shown as Figure 1 .

[0130] The present application is mainly applied to the resilience of the water, wind and light power generation system under extreme events, wherein the absolute deviation percentage complement is used as the resilience index, and the resilience of the water, wind and light power generation system is quantitatively described from the resistance stage, the adaptation stage, the recovery stage and the comprehensive evaluation. According to the calculation of the above example, compared with the single extreme event, the multiple extreme events in different stages make the water, wind and light power generation system more fragile, the robustness is weaker, and according to the comprehensive evaluation, the resilience of the whole system is weaker. The present application quantifies the single extreme event and the multiple extreme events in different stages, and considers the resilience quantification of the water, wind and light power generation system output exceeding the load demand according to the resource characteristics and the output limit, thereby providing a reference for quantifying the resilience of the water, wind and light power generation system, and having certain popularization value.

[0131] Finally, it should be noted that: the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present application, but not to limit them; although the present application has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that: they can still modify the technical solutions recorded in the foregoing embodiments, or make equivalent replacement to part or all of the technical features; and these modifications or replacements do not make the essence of the corresponding technical solutions deviate from the scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present application.

Claims

1. A method for assessing the resilience of a water-wind power system under multiple wind and light extreme events, characterized in that, The method comprises the following steps: Step 1, simulate the operation process of the water-wind-solar hybrid power system when two extreme events affecting wind-solar power generation meet at different stages, and determine the stages of the encounter of the two extreme events; wherein the different stages of encounter refer to that the second extreme event occurs at different stages of the first extreme event; Step 2, according to the different encounter stages of the two extreme events, quantify the resilience indicators of the resistance stage, adaptation stage and recovery stage of the water-wind-solar hybrid power system; Step 3, comprehensively evaluate the resilience of the water-wind-solar hybrid power system in the different stages of the encounter of the two extreme events.

2. The method for assessing the resilience of a water-wind power system under multiple wind-solar extreme events as claimed in claim 1, wherein: The resilience of the resistance stage, adaptation stage and recovery stage is evaluated by vulnerability, robustness and recovery respectively.

3. The method for assessing the resilience of a hydrokinetic power system to multiple wind and sunlight extreme events as claimed in claim 1, wherein: During the period from the occurrence of the extreme event to the recovery of the water-wind-solar hybrid power system to normal, according to the change of the absolute deviation percentage complement, the period is divided into the resistance stage, adaptation stage and recovery stage; wherein the calculation formula of the absolute deviation percentage complement is: In the formula, |η| is the absolute deviation percentage complement, output is the output of the water-wind-solar hybrid power system, and load is the load.

4. The method for assessing the resilience of a hydrokinetic power system to a plurality of wind and sunlight extreme events as claimed in claim 3, wherein: The resistance stage is the stage of the decrease of the absolute deviation percentage complement, the adaptation stage is the stage of the invariability of the absolute deviation percentage complement, and the recovery stage is the stage of the increase of the absolute deviation percentage complement.

5. The method for assessing the resilience of a hydrokinetic power system to multiple wind and sunlight extreme events as claimed in claim 3, wherein: When the second extreme event meets in the resistance stage of the first extreme event, the resilience evaluation includes the following specific steps: a. Against stage t1~t2: the first extreme event occurs at t1, and then the absolute deviation percentage complement of the water and wind power generation system starts to decline from |η|0. In the process of decline, the second extreme event is encountered, and the absolute deviation percentage complement continues to decline, and at t2, it drops to the lowest |η| m The vulnerability is measured as follows: R F = |η|0 - |η| m , ΔR F = |η| m |η|0; In the formula, |η|0 is the absolute deviation percentage complement at the initial time t1, |η| m |η|t2 is the absolute deviation percentage complement at the time t2, R F is the absolute value of vulnerability, the greater the value, the more vulnerable the system is; ΔR F is the relative value of vulnerability, the value range is [0, 1], the smaller the value, the more vulnerable the system is; b. Adaptation phase t2~t3: At time t2, the absolute percentage error complement of the water-wind-solar power generation system drops to the lowest |η| m and lasts until time t3, the measure of robustness is as follows: In the formula, |η| t is the absolute deviation percentage complement of a certain moment t, R R is the absolute value of robustness, the greater the value, the stronger the robustness of the system; ΔR R is the relative value of robustness, the value range is [0, 1], the greater the value, the stronger the robustness of the system; c. Recovery stage t3-t4: the system starts to recover at t3, and recovers to the normal operation state at t4, and the recovery is measured as follows: R RP = t4 - t3, ΔR RP = 1 - (t4 - t3) / (t4 - t1); In the formula, R RP is the absolute value of resilience, and the smaller the value, the shorter the system recovery time, i.e. the stronger the resilience; ΔR RP is the relative value of resilience, and the value range is [0, 1], and the larger the value, the smaller the proportion of the system recovery time relative to the entire extreme event duration, i.e. the stronger the resilience.

6. The method for assessing the resilience of a hydrokinetic power system to multiple wind and sunlight extreme events as claimed in claim 3, wherein: When the second extreme event meets in the adaptation stage of the first extreme event, the resilience evaluation includes the following specific steps: a. Resisting phase t1 ~ t2, t1 ′ ~ t2 ′ : The first extreme event occurs at t1, and the absolute deviation percentage complement of the water-wind-solar power generation system starts to decline from |η|0, and at t2, it declines to a certain value, entering the adaptation phase. At t1 ′ in the adaptation phase, the second extreme event occurs, and the absolute deviation percentage complement continues to decline, and at t2 ′ , it declines to the minimum |η| m , and the vulnerability is measured as follows: R F = |η|0 - |η| m , ΔR F = |η| m |η|0; where |η|0is the absolute deviation percentage complement at the initial time t0, |η| m is the absolute deviation percentage complement at the time t2 ′ , R F is the absolute value of vulnerability, the greater the value, the more vulnerable the system is; ΔR F is the relative value of vulnerability, the value range is [0, 1], the smaller the value, the more vulnerable the system is; b. Adaptation phase t2 ~ t1 ′ t2 ′ ~ t3: Resistance phase Absolute deviation percentage complement t2 ′ The measure of robustness is as follows: In the formula, |η| t is the absolute deviation percentage complement of a certain time t, R R is the absolute value of robustness, the greater the value, the stronger the robustness of the system; ΔR R is the relative value of robustness, the value range is [0, 1], the greater the value, also indicates that the robustness of the system is stronger; c. Recovery stage t3-t4: the system starts to recover at t3, and recovers to the normal operation state at t4, and the recovery is measured as follows: R RP = t4 - t3, ΔR RP = 1 - (t4 - t3) / (t4 - tl); In the formula, R RP is the absolute value of the resilience, and the smaller the value, the shorter the system recovery time, i.e. the stronger the resilience; ΔR RP is the relative value of the resilience, and the value range is [0, 1], and the larger the value, the smaller the proportion of the system recovery time relative to the entire extreme event duration, i.e. the stronger the resilience.

7. The method for assessing the resilience of a hydrokinetic power system to multiple wind and sunlight extreme events as claimed in claim 3, wherein: When the second extreme event meets in the recovery stage of the first extreme event, the resilience evaluation includes the following specific steps: a. Resisting stage t1~t2, t'1~t'2: the first extreme event occurs at t1, and then the absolute deviation percentage complement of the water-wind-solar power generation system starts to decline from |η|0, and at t2, the decline reaches a certain value, entering the adaptation stage, and at t3, the system starts to recover, and at t'1, the second extreme event occurs, and the absolute deviation percentage complement continues to decline, and at t'2, it reaches the minimum |η| m The measure of vulnerability is as follows: R F = |η|0 - |η| m , ΔR F = |η| m |η|0; wherein |η|0is the absolute deviation percentage complement at the initial time t0, |η| m is the absolute deviation percentage complement at the time t'2, R F is the absolute value of vulnerability, the greater the value, the more vulnerable the system is; ΔR F is the relative value of vulnerability, the value range is [0, 1], the smaller the value, the more vulnerable the system is; b. Adaptation phase t2~t3, t'2~t'3: t2 drops to a certain value, enters the adaptation phase, t3 the system begins to recover, t'2 drops to the lowest |η| m Again into the adaptation phase, t'3 the system begins to recover again, the measure of robustness is as follows: In the formula, |η| t is the absolute deviation percentage complement of a certain moment t, R R is the absolute value of robustness, the greater the value, the stronger the system robustness; ΔR R is the relative value of robustness, the value range is [0, 1], the greater the value, also indicates that the system robustness is stronger; c. Recovery stage t3-t'1, t'3-t4: the system starts to recover at t3, enters the recovery stage, meets the second extreme event at t'1 in the recovery stage, the system starts to recover again at t'3, and recovers to the normal operation state at t4, and the recovery is measured as follows: R RP = (t4 - t'3) + (t'1 - t3), ΔR RP = 1 - ((t4 - t ′ 3) + (t1 ′ - t3)) / (t4 - t1); In the formula, R RP is the absolute value of resilience, and the smaller the value, the shorter the system recovery time, i.e. the stronger the resilience; ΔR RP is the relative value of resilience, and the value range is [0, 1], and the larger the value, the smaller the proportion of the system recovery time relative to the entire extreme event duration, i.e. the stronger the resilience.

8. The method of claim 5 to 7, wherein: The resilience of the water-wind-solar hybrid power system is comprehensively evaluated, and a weighted method is adopted to calculate the specific value of the resilience of the water-wind-solar hybrid power system as a whole, as shown below: R = ω F x ΔR F + ω R x ΔR R + ω RP x ΔR RP ; In the formula, ω F is the weight of vulnerability, ω R is the weight of robustness, ω RP is the weight of recovery, and R is a comprehensive evaluation value of resilience. The greater the value, the stronger the system resilience.

Images