Electric heating heat storage electric quantity adjusting capability index prediction method and system

Abstract

The invention discloses an electric heating heat storage electric quantity adjusting capability index prediction method and system. The electric heating and heat storage electric quantity adjusting capability index prediction method comprises the following steps: constructing an electric heating and heat storage electric quantity adjusting capability index converted by related electric quantity parameters, and measuring the related electric quantity parameters of an electric heating and heat storage device at a fixed time interval; establishing a time sequence of related electric quantity parameters; carrying out normalization processing on the related electric quantity parameters; calculating an influence factor of the related electric quantity parameter at the current moment in the time sequence on the electric heating heat storage electric quantity adjusting capability index at the next moment; and calculating a predicted value of the electric heating and heat storage electric quantity adjusting capability index through the influence factor and the electric heating and heat storage electric quantity adjusting capability index. The heat release power of the electric heating and heat storage device is changed by predicting the electric heating and heat storage electric quantity adjusting capacity, so that the heat release capacity of the heat storage device is changed, and the peak load shifting capacity of the power grid is improved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of energy regulation, and in particular to a method and system for predicting an electric heating thermal storage power regulation capability index. Background Art

[0002] With the transformation of the global energy structure and the rapid development of renewable energy, the power system is facing unprecedented challenges. The large-scale grid connection of intermittent energy sources such as wind power and solar energy has seriously affected the supply and demand balance and frequency and peak regulation capabilities of the power grid. In order to improve the regulation capacity of the power grid, electric heating and heat storage technology has become one of the important means to improve the flexibility of the power system because it can translate a certain amount of electricity within a certain time scale. Electric heating and heat storage technology stores heat energy during the low period of electricity demand and releases heat energy during the peak period, balancing the power grid load and improving the stability and reliability of the power grid. It is of great significance to the consumption of renewable energy and the clean utilization of energy.

[0003] At present, the power regulation of electric heating and heat storage devices is suitable for the power balance regulation of the power grid on a longer time scale. However, due to the uncertainty of wind power, photovoltaic power and other power sources and loads in the power system, the power regulation demand of the power system also has a certain degree of uncertainty. In addition, the existing regulation method lacks an overall evaluation and prediction of the power regulation of electric heating and heat storage devices, resulting in the inability to take timely and accurate regulation measures in emergency situations. Summary of the invention

[0004] In view of the deficiencies of the above-mentioned prior art, the present invention proposes a method for predicting the electric heating heat storage power regulation capability index. By predicting the electric heating heat storage power regulation capability, the heat release power of the electric heating heat storage device is changed to change the heat release of the heat storage device, thereby improving the peak shaving and valley filling capability of the power grid.

[0005] In order to achieve the above object, the present invention provides the following technical solutions:

[0006] A method for predicting an electric heating thermal storage power regulation capability index comprises the following steps:

[0007] Define the electric heating heat storage power regulation capability index converted by relevant power parameters and measure the relevant power parameters of the electric heating heat storage device at fixed time intervals;

[0008] Establish time series of relevant power parameters;

[0009] Normalize the time series of relevant power parameters;

[0010] Calculate the influence factor of the relevant power parameters at the current moment in the time series on the relevant power parameters at the next moment;

[0011] The predicted value of the electric heating storage power regulation capability index is calculated through the influencing factor and the electric heating storage power regulation capability index;

[0012] The electric heating heat storage device is adjusted according to the predicted value of the electric heating heat storage power regulation capability index.

[0013] Furthermore, the electric heating storage power regulation capability index δ is converted using relevant power parameters EHT It can be expressed as:

[0014]

[0015] Among them, t1, t2, ..., t s ,...,t n is the time interval of n fixed time intervals, n is a natural number, n∈1,2,...; t s is the sth moment, and s is a natural number, s∈{1,2,...,n}; t s Heating power of electric heating storage device at the moment; P EJ,N The heating power rating for the electric heating storage device; t s Heat exchange power of electric heating storage device at the moment; P EH,N It is the rated value of heat exchange power of the electric heating storage device; t s The power consumption of electric heating storage device at any moment; Q EY,N It is the rated value of electricity consumption of the electric heating storage device; t s The amount of heat stored in the electric heating storage device at any given moment; Q EC,N The rated value of heat storage for electric heating storage devices; t s Heat storage efficiency of electric heating storage device at the moment; η ER,N P is the rated value of the heat storage efficiency of the electric heating storage device; EJ,max , P EJ,min are t1, t2, ..., t s ,...,t n The maximum and minimum heating power of the electric heating storage device at the moment; P EH,max , P EH,min are t1, t2, ..., t s ,...,t n The maximum and minimum heat exchange power of the electric heating storage device at the moment; Q EY,max , Q EY,min are t1, t2, ..., t s ,...,t nThe maximum and minimum power consumption of the electric heating storage device at the moment; Q EC,max , Q EC,min are t1, t2, ..., t s ,...,t n The maximum and minimum heat storage capacity of the electric heating storage device at the time; η ER,max , η ER,min are t1, t2, ..., t s ,...,t n The maximum and minimum values ​​of the heat storage efficiency of the electric heating storage device at the moment.

[0016] Furthermore, the time series of relevant power parameters is established and expressed as follows:

[0017]

[0018] in, The time series of heating power of the electric heating storage device;

[0019] It is the time series of heat exchange power of electric heating storage device;

[0020] It is the time series of electricity consumption of electric heating storage device;

[0021] Time series of heat storage for electric heating storage device;

[0022] It is the time series of heat storage efficiency of electric heating storage device.

[0023] Furthermore, the method of normalizing the relevant electrical parameters is expressed as follows:

[0024]

[0025] in, t s Normalized value of heating power of electric heating storage device at the moment; t s Normalized value of heat exchange power of electric heating storage device at time instant; t s The time is the normalized value of the power consumption of the electric heating storage device; t s The time is the normalized value of the heat storage capacity of the electric heating heat storage device; t s The time is the normalized value of the heat storage efficiency of the electric heating storage device.

[0026] Furthermore, the method for calculating the impact factor is expressed as follows:

[0027]

[0028] in, It is the influence factor of the heating power of the electric heating heat storage device on the electric heating heat storage power regulation capability index at the next moment; It is the influence factor of the heat exchange power of the electric heating heat storage device on the electric heating heat storage power regulation capability index at the next moment; is the influencing factor of the electric heating heat storage power regulation capability index of the electric heating heat storage device at the next moment; The influence factor of the heat storage amount of the electric heating heat storage device on the electric heating heat storage power regulation capability index at the next moment; It is the influencing factor of the heat storage efficiency of the electric heating storage device on the electric heating storage power regulation capability index at the next moment.

[0029] Furthermore, the predicted value of the electric heating storage power regulation capability index δ is calculated EHT-NEXT The method is expressed as follows:

[0030]

[0031] Further, the difference between the predicted value of the electric heating thermal storage power regulation capability index at the next adjustment time and the preset electric heating thermal storage power regulation capability judgment value is compared.

[0032] If the difference is negative, it is considered that the power regulation ability of the electric heating storage is weak at the next adjustment time, and when the heat storage system is required to store the excess power of the power grid at the next adjustment time, the heat release power is increased or the heating power is reduced to reduce the heat storage amount; and when the heat storage system is required to adjust the insufficient power of the power grid at the next adjustment time, the heat release power is reduced or the heating power is increased to increase the heat storage amount;

[0033] If the difference is positive or equal to zero, it is considered that the electric heating storage power regulation capacity is strong at the next adjustment time, and the heat release power or heating power at the next adjustment time needs to be maintained to maintain the heat storage, maintain the current power regulation capacity, and improve the peak shaving and valley filling capacity of the power grid.

[0034] Furthermore, the judgment value of the electric heating storage power regulation capability is 0.629.

[0035] An electric heating thermal storage power regulation capability index prediction system, comprising:

[0036] A data recording unit, used to record the measured values ​​of the relevant electric quantity parameters of the electric heating and heat storage device at fixed time intervals and establish the measured values ​​as a time series of the relevant electric quantity parameters;

[0037] A normalized data processing unit, used for normalizing the time series of relevant electric quantity parameters;

[0038] An electric quantity regulation capability index processing unit, used to calculate the electric heating thermal storage electric quantity regulation capability index converted by relevant electric quantity parameters;

[0039] An impact factor data processing unit is used to calculate the impact factor of the relevant power parameters at the current moment in the time series on the electric heating storage power regulation capability index at the next moment;

[0040] A power regulation capability index prediction value processing unit, used to calculate a prediction value of the electric heating heat storage power regulation capability index according to the received electric heating heat storage power regulation capability index and an influencing factor;

[0041] The power regulating unit is used to regulate the heat storage amount of the electric heating heat storage device according to the predicted value of the electric heating heat storage power regulating capability index.

[0042] In the above technical solution, the present invention provides a method for predicting the electric heating storage power regulation capability index, which has the following beneficial effects:

[0043] Compared with the prior art, the method for predicting the electric heating heat storage power regulation capability index of the present invention can predict the power regulation capability of the electric heating heat storage device at the next adjustment time through historical data, and adjust the heat release power of the electric heating heat storage device at the next adjustment time according to the prediction result. This helps to improve the power regulation capability of the electric heating heat storage device and the peak-shaving and valley-filling capability of the power grid. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0044] In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present application or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required for use in the embodiments will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments recorded in the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can also be obtained based on these drawings.

[0045] Figure 1 A flow chart of a method for predicting the electric heating thermal storage power regulation capability index provided by the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0046] In order to enable those skilled in the art to better understand the technical solution of the present invention, the present invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0047] A method for predicting the electric heating storage power regulation capability index in this embodiment is as follows: Figure 1 As shown, the following steps are included:

[0048] Step 1: Define the electric heating storage power regulation capability index δ EHT As shown in formula (1):

[0049]

[0050] Where t1, t2, ..., t s ,...,t n is a fixed time interval of n times, where n is a natural number, n∈1,2,..., t s is the sth moment, and s is a natural number, s∈{1,2,...,n}; t s Heating power of electric heating storage device at the moment; P EJ,N The heating power rating for the electric heating storage device; t s Heat exchange power of electric heating storage device at the moment; P EH,N It is the rated value of heat exchange power of the electric heating storage device; t s The power consumption of electric heating storage device at any moment; Q EY,N It is the rated value of electricity consumption of the electric heating storage device; t s The amount of heat stored in the electric heating storage device at any given moment; Q EC,N The rated value of heat storage for electric heating storage devices; t s Heat storage efficiency of electric heating storage device at the moment; η ER,N P is the rated value of the heat storage efficiency of the electric heating storage device; EJ,max , P EJ,min are t1, t2, ..., t s ,...,t n The maximum and minimum heating power of the electric heating storage device at the moment; P EH,max , P EH,min are t1, t2, ..., t s ,...,t n The maximum and minimum heat exchange power of the electric heating storage device at the moment; Q EY,max , Q EY,min are t1, t2, ..., t s ,...,t n The maximum and minimum power consumption of the electric heating storage device at the moment; Q EC,max , Q EC,min are t1, t2, ..., t s ,...,t n The maximum and minimum heat storage capacity of the electric heating storage device at the time; η ER,max , η ER,min are t1, t2, ..., t s ,...,t nThe maximum and minimum values ​​of the heat storage efficiency of the electric heating heat storage device at the moment. The relevant parameters of the electric heating heat storage power regulation capability index include the heating power of the electric heating heat storage device, the heat exchange power of the electric heating heat storage device, the power consumption of the electric heating heat storage device, the heat storage amount of the electric heating heat storage device, and the heat storage efficiency of the electric heating heat storage device.

[0051] Measure the relevant power parameters of the electric heating storage device at fixed time intervals. For example, if the time interval is set to t = 1min, measure the relevant power parameters used to define the electric heating storage power regulation capability index at n = 30 moments.

[0052] Step 2: Establish a time series of relevant power parameters. According to the parameter values ​​of the heating power of the electric heating storage device, the heat exchange power of the electric heating storage device, the power consumption of the electric heating storage device, the heat storage amount of the electric heating storage device, and the heat storage efficiency of the electric heating storage device measured at n fixed time intervals in step 1, establish the corresponding time series of relevant power parameters as shown in formula (2):

[0053]

[0054] in, The time series of heating power of the electric heating storage device;

[0055] It is the time series of heat exchange power of electric heating storage device;

[0056] It is the time series of electricity consumption of electric heating storage device;

[0057] Time series of heat storage for electric heating storage device;

[0058] It is the time series of heat storage efficiency of electric heating storage device.

[0059] Step 3: Normalize the relevant power parameters. The method for normalizing the measurement data of the relevant parameters is shown in formula (3):

[0060]

[0061] in, t s Normalized value of heating power of electric heating storage device at the moment; t s Normalized value of heat exchange power of electric heating storage device at time instant; t s The time is the normalized value of the power consumption of the electric heating storage device; t sThe time is the normalized value of the heat storage capacity of the electric heating heat storage device; t s The moment is the normalized value of the heat storage efficiency of the electric heating storage device; P EJ,max , P EJ,min are t1, t2, ..., t s ,...,t n The maximum and minimum heating power of the electric heating storage device at the moment; P EH,max , P EH,min are t1, t2, ..., t s ,...,t n The maximum and minimum values ​​of the electric heating storage device at the moment; Q EY,max , Q EY,min are t1, t2, ..., t s ,...,t n The maximum and minimum power consumption of the electric heating storage device at the moment; Q EC,max , Q EC,min are t1, t2, ..., t s ,...,t n The maximum and minimum heat storage capacity of the electric heating storage device at the time; η ER,max , η ER,min are t1, t2, ..., t s ,...,t n The maximum and minimum values ​​of the heat storage efficiency of the electric heating storage device at the moment.

[0062] Step 4: The method for calculating the influence factor of the relevant power parameters at the current moment in the time series on the electric heating storage power regulation capability index at the next moment is shown in formula (4):

[0063]

[0064] in, The influence factor of the heating power of the electric heating storage device at the current moment on the electric heating storage power regulation capability index at the next moment; The influence factor of the heat exchange power of the electric heating heat storage device at the current moment on the electric heating heat storage power regulation capability index at the next moment; The influencing factor of the electric heating heat storage device power consumption at the current moment on the electric heating heat storage power regulation capability index at the next moment; The influence factor of the heat storage capacity of the electric heating heat storage device at the current moment on the electric heating heat storage power regulation capability index at the next moment; It is the influence factor of the heat storage efficiency of the electric heating storage device at the current moment on the electric heating storage power regulation capability index at the next moment.

[0065] The heating power of the electric heating heat storage device, the heat exchange power of the electric heating heat storage device, the power consumption of the electric heating heat storage device, the heat storage amount of the electric heating heat storage device, and the heat storage efficiency of the electric heating heat storage device at the previous moment in the time series may have some influence on the predicted value at the next moment, so it is necessary to calculate the influence factor of the current moment on the electric heating heat storage power regulation capability index at the next moment; for example, the influence factor is calculated through the relevant power parameters at time t3, and the influence factor affects the electric heating heat storage power regulation capability index at time t4 and the predicted value of the index.

[0066] Step 5: The predicted value of the electric heating heat storage power regulation capability index is calculated by the influencing factor and the electric heating heat storage power regulation capability index as shown in the following formula: where the expression of the predicted value is constructed based on the influencing factor and the electric heating heat storage power regulation capability index.

[0067]

[0068] Taking the previous setting of the time interval t = 1min and measuring the relevant power parameters at n = 30 moments as an example, the predicted value calculation formula of the electric heating storage power regulation capability index at the 31st moment, i.e. the next moment to be adjusted and predicted, is as follows:

[0069]

[0070] Step 6: Adjust the electric heating heat storage device according to the predicted value of the electric heating heat storage power regulation capability index, and compare the difference between the predicted value of the electric heating heat storage power regulation capability index at the next adjustment time and the preset electric heating heat storage power regulation capability judgment value.

[0071] If the result obtained by formula (5) is less than the judgment value of the electric heating heat storage power regulation capacity, it is considered that the electric heating heat storage power regulation capacity is weak at the next adjustment time. At this time, if the heat storage system is required to store the excess power of the power grid at the next adjustment time, it means that more electric energy needs to be converted into heat energy for storage at the next adjustment time, so it is necessary to increase the heat release power or reduce the heating power to reduce the heat storage capacity; if the heat storage system is required to adjust the power shortage of the power grid at the next adjustment time, it means that the electric heating heat storage needs to reduce or even stop the consumption of electric energy at the next adjustment time, so it is necessary to reduce the heat release power or increase the heating power to increase the heat storage capacity.

[0072] In both cases, when the predicted value is less than the judgment value of the electric heating heat storage power regulation capacity, it is considered that the electric heating heat storage power regulation capacity at the next adjustment moment is weak, and it is necessary to adjust the heat release power or heating power to regulate the heat storage capacity. However, the power grid may have excess power or insufficient power. Both of these cases need to be considered. By adjusting the heat release power or heating power to regulate the heat storage capacity, the power grid can be regulated to maintain safe and stable operation of the power grid.

[0073] If the result obtained by formula (5) is greater than or equal to the judgment value of the electric heating storage power regulation capacity, it is considered that the electric heating storage power regulation capacity at the next adjustment time is relatively strong. It is only necessary to maintain the heat release power or heating power at the next adjustment time to regulate the heat storage, maintain the current power regulation capacity, and promote peak shaving and valley filling of the power grid.

[0074] The electric heating heat storage power regulation capability judgment value is a judgment value of the electric heating heat storage power regulation capability obtained through experiments, and is preferably set to 0.629.

[0075] An electric heating thermal storage power regulation capability index prediction system, comprising:

[0076] A data recording unit, used to record the measured values ​​of the relevant electric quantity parameters of the electric heating and heat storage device at fixed time intervals and establish the measured values ​​as a time series of the relevant electric quantity parameters;

[0077] A normalized data processing unit, used for normalizing the time series of relevant electric quantity parameters;

[0078] An electric quantity regulation capability index processing unit, used to calculate the electric heating thermal storage electric quantity regulation capability index converted by relevant electric quantity parameters;

[0079] An impact factor data processing unit is used to calculate the impact factor of the relevant power parameters at the current moment in the time series on the electric heating storage power regulation capability index at the next moment;

[0080] A power regulation capability index prediction value processing unit, used to calculate a prediction value of the electric heating heat storage power regulation capability index according to the received electric heating heat storage power regulation capability index and an influencing factor;

[0081] The power regulating unit is used to regulate the heat storage amount of the electric heating heat storage device according to the predicted value of the electric heating heat storage power regulating capability index.

[0082] Specifically, the electric heating storage power regulation capability index δ EHT It is expressed as:

[0083]

[0084] Among them, t1, t2, ..., t s,...,t n is the time interval of n fixed time intervals, n is a natural number, n∈1,2,...; t s is the sth moment, and s is a natural number, s∈{1,2,...,n}; t s Heating power of electric heating storage device at the moment; P EJ,N The heating power rating for the electric heating storage device; t s Heat exchange power of electric heating storage device at the moment; P EH,N It is the rated value of heat exchange power of the electric heating storage device; t s The power consumption of electric heating storage device at any moment; Q EY,N It is the rated value of electricity consumption of the electric heating storage device; t s The amount of heat stored in the electric heating storage device at any given moment; Q EC,N The rated value of heat storage for electric heating storage devices; t s Heat storage efficiency of electric heating storage device at the moment; η ER,N P is the rated value of the heat storage efficiency of the electric heating storage device; EJ,max , P EJ,min are t1, t2, ..., t s ,...,t n The maximum and minimum heating power of the electric heating storage device at the moment; P EH,max , P EH,min are t1, t2, ..., t s ,...,t n The maximum and minimum heat exchange power of the electric heating storage device at the moment; Q EY,max , Q EY,min are t1, t2, ..., t s ,...,t n The maximum and minimum power consumption of the electric heating storage device at the moment; Q EC,max , Q EC,min are t1, t2, ..., t s ,...,t n The maximum and minimum heat storage capacity of the electric heating storage device at the time; η ER,max , η ER,min are t1, t2, ..., t s ,...,t n The maximum and minimum values ​​of the heat storage efficiency of the electric heating storage device at the time;

[0085] The time series established in the data recording unit is:

[0086]

[0087] in, The time series of heating power of the electric heating storage device;

[0088] It is the time series of heat exchange power of electric heating storage device;

[0089] It is the time series of electricity consumption of electric heating storage device;

[0090] Time series of heat storage for electric heating storage device;

[0091] It is the time series of heat storage efficiency of electric heating storage device;

[0092] The method for normalizing the relevant electrical quantity parameters in the normalized data processing unit is:

[0093]

[0094] in, t s Normalized value of heating power of electric heating storage device at the moment; t s Normalized value of heat exchange power of electric heating storage device at time instant; t s The time is the normalized value of the power consumption of the electric heating storage device; t s The time is the normalized value of the heat storage capacity of the electric heating heat storage device; t s The time is the normalized value of the heat storage efficiency of the electric heating storage device;

[0095] In the influencing factor data processing unit, the reason for calculating the influencing factor is: taking into account the fluctuation of power system supply and demand, changes in equipment performance and environmental conditions, the prediction model can more accurately reflect the regulation capacity of the electric heating storage device, and act on the prediction model to improve the prediction accuracy of the power grid regulation capacity by considering the influencing factor; the defined formula only proves that there is a certain nonlinear relationship between the index and the parameter, but which one has a deeper impact is not taken into account, so the influencing factor is introduced to measure the influence of each parameter on the power regulation capacity. The specific calculation method of the influencing factor is:

[0096]

[0097] in, The influence factor of the heating power of the electric heating storage device at the current moment on the electric heating storage power regulation capability index at the next moment; The influence factor of the heat exchange power of the electric heating heat storage device at the current moment on the electric heating heat storage power regulation capability index at the next moment; The influencing factor of the electric heating heat storage device power consumption at the current moment on the electric heating heat storage power regulation capability index at the next moment; The influence factor of the heat storage capacity of the electric heating heat storage device at the current moment on the electric heating heat storage power regulation capability index at the next moment; is the influence factor of the heat storage efficiency of the electric heating heat storage device at the current moment on the electric heating heat storage power regulation capability index at the next moment;

[0098] The predicted value δ of the electric heating thermal storage power regulation capability index is calculated in the power regulation capability index prediction value processing unit. EHT-NEXT The method is: the predicted value of the electric heating storage power regulation capability index is the predicted value at time n+1, which is also the next time to be adjusted.

[0099]

[0100] The predicted value δ of the influencing factors at the previous n moments and the electric heating storage power regulation capability index EHT-NEXT The power regulation unit compares the predicted value δ of the electric heating storage power regulation capability index at the next adjustment moment with the preset electric heating storage power. EHT-NEXT The difference between the preset electric heating storage power regulation capacity judgment value;

[0101] If the difference is negative, it is considered that the power regulation ability of the electric heating storage is weak at the next adjustment moment, and when the heat storage system is needed to store the excess power of the power grid at the next moment, the heat release power is increased or the heating power is reduced to reduce the heat storage amount; and when the heat storage system is needed to adjust the insufficient power of the power grid at the next adjustment moment, the heat release power is reduced or the heating power is increased to increase the heat storage amount;

[0102] If the difference is positive or equal to zero, it is considered that the electric heating storage power regulation capacity is strong at the next adjustment time, and the heat release power or heating power at the next adjustment time needs to be maintained to maintain the heat storage, maintain the current power regulation capacity, and improve the peak shaving and valley filling capacity of the power grid.

[0103] The present application is described with reference to the flowcharts and / or block diagrams of the methods, devices (systems), and computer program products according to the embodiments of the present application. It should be understood that each process and / or box in the flowchart and / or block diagram, as well as the combination of the processes and / or boxes in the flowchart and / or block diagram, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, an embedded processor, or other programmable data processing device to generate a machine, so that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing device generate instructions for implementing the processes in the flowchart and / or block diagram. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in a block or multiple blocks.

[0104] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory capable of directing a computer or other programmable data processing device to operate in a specific manner, so that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture comprising an instruction device, which implements the process Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A function specified in one or more boxes.

[0105] These computer program instructions can also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device so that a series of operating steps are executed on the computer or other programmable device to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing instructions for implementing the process. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The steps for the functions specified in one or more boxes.

[0106] Although the preferred embodiments of the present application have been described, those skilled in the art may make other changes and modifications to these embodiments once they have learned the basic creative concept. Therefore, the appended claims are intended to be interpreted as including the preferred embodiments and all changes and modifications falling within the scope of the present application.

[0107] Obviously, those skilled in the art can make various changes and modifications to the present application without departing from the spirit and scope of the present application. Thus, if these modifications and variations of the present application fall within the scope of the claims of the present application and their equivalents, the present application is also intended to include these modifications and variations.

[0108] The above description is only by way of illustration of certain exemplary embodiments of the present invention. It is undoubted that those skilled in the art can modify the described embodiments in various ways without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention. Therefore, the above drawings and descriptions are illustrative in nature and should not be construed as limiting the scope of protection of the claims of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for predicting the electric heating storage power regulation capability index, characterized in that: The steps include: Define the electric heating heat storage power regulation capability index converted by relevant power parameters and measure the relevant power parameters of the electric heating heat storage device at fixed time intervals; Establish time series of relevant power parameters; Normalize the time series of relevant power parameters; Calculate the influence factor of the relevant power parameters at the current moment in the time series on the electric heating storage power regulation capability index at the next moment; The predicted value of the electric heating storage power regulation capability index is calculated through the influencing factor and the electric heating storage power regulation capability index; The electric heating heat storage device is adjusted according to the predicted value of the electric heating heat storage power regulation capability index.

2. The method for predicting the electric heating storage power regulation capability index according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The electric heating storage power regulation capability index δ EHT It can be expressed as: Among them, t1, t2, ..., t s ,...,t n is the time interval of n fixed time intervals, n is a natural number, n∈1,2,...; t s is the sth moment, and s is a natural number, s∈{1,2,...,n}; t s Heating power of electric heating storage device at the moment; P EJ,N The heating power rating for the electric heating storage device; t s Heat exchange power of electric heating storage device at the moment; P EH,N It is the rated value of heat exchange power of the electric heating storage device; t s The power consumption of electric heating storage device at any moment; Q EY,N It is the rated value of electricity consumption of the electric heating storage device; t s The amount of heat stored in the electric heating storage device at any given moment; Q EC,N The rated value of heat storage for electric heating storage devices; t s Heat storage efficiency of electric heating storage device at the moment; η ER,N P is the rated value of the heat storage efficiency of the electric heating storage device; EJ,max , P EJ,min are t1, t2, ..., t s ,...,t n The maximum and minimum heating power of the electric heating storage device at the moment; P EH,max , P EH,min are t1, t2, ..., t s ,...,t n The maximum and minimum heat exchange power of the electric heating storage device at the moment; Q EY,max , Q EY,min are t1, t2, ..., t s ,...,t n The maximum and minimum power consumption of the electric heating storage device at the moment; Q EC,max , Q EC,min are t1, t2, ..., t s ,...,t n The maximum and minimum heat storage capacity of the electric heating storage device at the time; η ER,max , η ER,min are t1, t2, ..., t s ,...,t n The maximum and minimum values ​​of the heat storage efficiency of the electric heating storage device at the moment.

3. The method for predicting the electric heating storage power regulation capability index according to claim 2 is characterized in that: The time series of relevant power parameters is expressed as follows: in, The time series of heating power of the electric heating storage device; It is the time series of heat exchange power of electric heating storage device; It is the time series of electricity consumption of electric heating storage device; Time series of heat storage for electric heating storage device; It is the time series of heat storage efficiency of electric heating storage device.

4. The method for predicting the electric heating thermal storage power regulation capability index according to claim 3 is characterized in that: The method of normalizing the relevant electrical parameters is expressed as follows: in, t s Normalized value of heating power of electric heating storage device at the moment; t s Normalized value of heat exchange power of electric heating storage device at time instant; t s The time is the normalized value of the power consumption of the electric heating storage device; t s The time is the normalized value of the heat storage capacity of the electric heating heat storage device; t s The time is the normalized value of the heat storage efficiency of the electric heating storage device.

5. The method for predicting the electric heating storage power regulation capability index according to claim 4 is characterized in that: The method for calculating the impact factor is expressed as follows: in, The influence factor of the heating power of the electric heating heat storage device at the current moment on the electric heating heat storage power regulation capability index at the next moment; The influence factor of the heat exchange power of the electric heating heat storage device at the current moment on the electric heating heat storage power regulation capability index at the next moment; The current moment's electric heating heat storage device power consumption affects the electric heating heat storage power regulation capability index at the next moment; The influence factor of the heat storage capacity of the electric heating heat storage device at the current moment on the electric heating heat storage power regulation capability index at the next moment; It is the influence factor of the heat storage efficiency of the electric heating storage device at the current moment on the electric heating storage power regulation capability index at the next moment.

6. The method for predicting the electric heating storage power regulation capability index according to claim 5, characterized in that: Calculate the predicted value δ of the electric heating storage power regulation capability index EHT-NEXT The method is expressed as follows:

7. The method for predicting the electric heating thermal storage power regulation capability index according to claim 6 is characterized in that: Comparison of predicted values ​​of electric heating storage power regulation capability index δ EHT-NEXT The difference between the preset electric heating storage power regulation capacity judgment value; If the difference is negative, it is considered that the power regulation ability of the electric heating storage is weak at the next adjustment time, and when the heat storage system is required to store the excess power of the power grid at the next adjustment time, the heat release power is increased or the heating power is reduced to reduce the heat storage amount; and when the heat storage system is required to adjust the insufficient power of the power grid at the next adjustment time, the heat release power is reduced or the heating power is increased to increase the heat storage amount; If the difference is positive or equal to zero, it is considered that the electric heating storage power regulation capacity is strong at the next adjustment time, and the heat release power or heating power at the next adjustment time needs to be maintained to maintain the heat storage, maintain the current power regulation capacity, and improve the peak shaving and valley filling capacity of the power grid.

8. The method for predicting the electric heating storage power regulation capability index according to claim 7, characterized in that: The judgment value of the electric heating storage power regulation capacity is 0.

629.

9. An electric heating storage power regulation capability index prediction system, characterized in that: include: A data recording unit, used to record the measured values ​​of the relevant electric quantity parameters of the electric heating and heat storage device at fixed time intervals and establish the measured values ​​as a time series of the relevant electric quantity parameters; A normalized data processing unit, used for normalizing the time series of relevant electric quantity parameters; An electric quantity regulation capability index processing unit, used to calculate the electric heating thermal storage electric quantity regulation capability index converted by relevant electric quantity parameters; An impact factor data processing unit is used to calculate the impact factor of the relevant power parameters at the current moment in the time series on the electric heating storage power regulation capability index at the next moment; A power regulation capability index prediction value processing unit, used to calculate a prediction value of the electric heating heat storage power regulation capability index according to the received electric heating heat storage power regulation capability index and an influencing factor; The power regulating unit is used to regulate the heat storage amount of the electric heating heat storage device according to the predicted value of the electric heating heat storage power regulating capability index.

10. The electric heating thermal storage power regulation capability index prediction system according to claim 9, characterized in that: include: The electric heating storage power regulation capability index δ EHT It is expressed as: Among them, t1, t2, ..., t s ,...,t n is the time interval of n fixed time intervals, n is a natural number, n∈1,2,...; t s is the sth moment, and s is a natural number, s∈{1,2,...,n}; t s Heating power of electric heating storage device at the moment; P EJ,N The heating power rating of the electric heating storage device; t s Heat exchange power of electric heating storage device at the moment; P EH,N It is the rated value of heat exchange power of the electric heating storage device; t s The power consumption of electric heating storage device at each moment; Q EY,N It is the rated value of electricity consumption of the electric heating storage device; t s The amount of heat stored in the electric heating storage device at any given moment; Q EC,N The rated value of heat storage for electric heating storage devices; t s Heat storage efficiency of electric heating storage device at the moment; η ER,N P is the rated value of the heat storage efficiency of the electric heating storage device; EJ,max , P EJ,min are t1, t2, ..., t s ,...,t n The maximum and minimum heating power of the electric heating storage device at the moment; P EH,max , P EH,min are t1, t2, ..., t s ,...,t n The maximum and minimum heat exchange power of the electric heating storage device at the moment; Q EY,max , Q EY,min are t1, t2, ..., t s ,...,t n The maximum and minimum power consumption of the electric heating storage device at the moment; Q EC,max , Q EC,min are t1, t2, ..., t s ,...,t n The maximum and minimum heat storage capacity of the electric heating storage device at the time; η ER,max , η ER,min are t1, t2, ..., t s ,...,t n The maximum and minimum values ​​of the heat storage efficiency of the electric heating storage device at the time; The time series established in the data recording unit is: in, The time series of heating power of the electric heating storage device; It is the time series of heat exchange power of electric heating storage device; It is the time series of electricity consumption of electric heating storage device; Time series of heat storage for electric heating storage device; It is the time series of heat storage efficiency of electric heating storage device; The method for normalizing the relevant electrical quantity parameters in the normalized data processing unit is: in, t s Normalized value of heating power of electric heating storage device at the moment; t s Normalized value of heat exchange power of electric heating storage device at time instant; t s The time is the normalized value of the power consumption of the electric heating storage device; t s The time is the normalized value of the heat storage capacity of the electric heating heat storage device; t s The time is the normalized value of the heat storage efficiency of the electric heating heat storage device; In the impact factor data processing unit, the impact factor is calculated as follows: in, The influence factor of the heating power of the electric heating heat storage device at the current moment on the electric heating heat storage power regulation capability index at the next moment; The influence factor of the heat exchange power of the electric heating heat storage device at the current moment on the electric heating heat storage power regulation capability index at the next moment; The current moment's electric heating heat storage device power consumption affects the electric heating heat storage power regulation capability index at the next moment; The influence factor of the heat storage capacity of the electric heating heat storage device at the current moment on the electric heating heat storage power regulation capability index at the next moment; is the influence factor of the heat storage efficiency of the electric heating heat storage device at the current moment on the electric heating heat storage power regulation capability index at the next moment; The predicted value δ of the electric heating thermal storage electric power regulation capability index is calculated in the electric power regulation capability index prediction value processing unit. EHT-NEXT The method is: The power regulation unit compares the predicted value δ of the electric heating storage power regulation capability index EHT-NEXT The difference between the preset electric heating storage power regulation capacity judgment value; If the difference is negative, it is considered that the power regulation ability of the electric heating storage is weak at the next adjustment time, and when the heat storage system is required to store the excess power of the power grid at the next adjustment time, the heat release power is increased or the heating power is reduced to reduce the heat storage amount; and when the heat storage system is required to adjust the insufficient power of the power grid at the next adjustment time, the heat release power is reduced or the heating power is increased to increase the heat storage amount; If the difference is positive or equal to zero, it is considered that the electric heating storage power regulation capacity is strong at the next adjustment time, and the heat release power or heating power at the next adjustment time needs to be maintained to maintain the heat storage, maintain the current power regulation capacity, and improve the peak shaving and valley filling capacity of the power grid.

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