Financial risk assessment method based on financial statement data

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of financial management, in particular to a financial risk assessment method based on financial statement data, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining flowing cash flowing data and debt data, and carrying out the calculation to obtain a flowing cash shortage risk warning value; generating a flow cash shortage risk signal according to the flow cash shortage risk warning value; acquiring uncollected fund data, and calculating to obtain a bad debt risk index; generating a bad debt hidden danger signal according to the bad debt risk index; obtaining an initial existing residual value and a high-risk delay fund number, and calculating to obtain a curvature fluctuation value; generating an influence intensity signal according to the curvature fluctuation value; according to the number of high-risk delay funds, an initial existing residual minimum value is obtained through calculation; generating a financial crisis risk signal according to the initial existing residual value; according to the financial crisis judgment method and the financial crisis judgment device, the reliability of judging the reason causing the financial crisis risk is improved by analyzing the flowing cash and the uncollected money, so that the accuracy of financial crisis judgment is improved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of financial management, and in particular to a financial risk assessment method based on financial statement data. Background Art

[0002] Finance is a series of economic activities carried out by an enterprise or organization in the process of capital movement, focusing on the raising, use, allocation, and recovery of funds.

[0003] A financial crisis refers to a situation where a company or individual's capital chain is unable to repay debts or cover daily expenses. A financial crisis may cause a company to lose important assets, and bring negative impacts such as economic losses and reduced employment opportunities, and even lead to corporate bankruptcy.

[0004] Traditional financial crisis judgment methods are often based on experience and lack accuracy. As the business environment of enterprises becomes more complex, the financial risks faced by enterprises are becoming increasingly diverse and complex. Therefore, a more accurate financial crisis judgment method is needed to help enterprises identify financial risks in a timely manner and take corresponding countermeasures. Summary of the invention

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a financial risk assessment method based on financial statement data to solve the above-mentioned problems.

[0006] The purpose of the present invention can be achieved through the following technical solutions:

[0007] A financial risk assessment method based on financial statement data comprises the following steps:

[0008] Step 1: Obtain the current cash flow data and debt data in the financial statements, and calculate the current cash shortage risk warning value; the current cash data includes the current cash outflow value and the current cash inflow value, and the debt data is the debt repayment value;

[0009] Step 2: According to the liquidity cash shortage risk warning value, determine the risk of liquidity cash shortage and generate a liquidity cash shortage risk signal; wherein the liquidity cash shortage risk signal includes a liquidity cash shortage high risk signal and a liquidity cash shortage low risk signal;

[0010] Step 3: Based on the high risk signal of cash shortage, obtain the uncollected amount data in the financial statements and calculate the bad debt risk index; the collection data includes the delay time of the uncollected amount and the amount of the uncollected amount received;

[0011] Step 4: According to the bad debt risk index, determine the bad debt risk of the uncollected amount and generate a bad debt potential risk signal; wherein the bad debt potential risk signal includes a high bad debt potential risk signal and a low bad debt potential risk signal;

[0012] Step 5: Based on the high risk signal of bad debts, obtain the initial existing residual value and the number of high-risk delayed payments in the historical assessment period, and calculate the curvature fluctuation value;

[0013] Step 6: According to the curvature fluctuation value, determine the impact between the initial existing remaining value and the number of high-risk delayed payments, and generate an impact intensity signal; wherein the impact intensity signal includes an impact high intensity signal and an impact low intensity signal;

[0014] Step 7: Based on the high-intensity impact signal, calculate the initial existing minimum remaining value according to the number of high-risk delayed payments in the assessment period;

[0015] Step 8: Based on the initial existing remaining value, determine whether the initial existing remaining value is too low, and generate a financial crisis risk signal; wherein the financial crisis risk signal includes a financial crisis low risk signal and a financial crisis high risk signal.

[0016] As a further solution of the present invention: in step 1, an evaluation period is set, a debt repayment value within the evaluation period is obtained, and the initial existing value of liquid cash within the evaluation period and the debt repayment value are calculated to obtain an initial existing residual value;

[0017] The initial existing surplus value is calculated by ratio with the initial existing value to obtain the initial existing surplus index;

[0018] Obtain the current cash outflow and current cash inflow values ​​within the historical assessment period;

[0019] Calculate the difference between the current cash inflow and current cash outflow of the historical evaluation period to obtain the current cash change value within the historical evaluation period;

[0020] Compare the current cash flow change value with 0. If the current cash flow change value is greater than 0, mark the evaluation period as an increasing period.

[0021] If the current cash change value is less than 0, the evaluation period is marked as a decline period;

[0022] If the current cash change value is equal to 0, the assessment period is marked as a balanced period;

[0023] Obtain the number of falling cycles marked in all historical evaluation cycles, calculate the ratio of the falling cycles to the number of all historical evaluation cycles, and obtain the falling cycle ratio;

[0024] By formula The liquidity cash shortage risk warning value Jf is calculated; wherein Lb represents the decline cycle ratio, Xs represents the initial existing surplus index, α and β are both proportional coefficients; and α+β=1.

[0025] As a further solution of the present invention: in step 2, a liquid cash shortage risk warning value Jf is obtained, and the liquid cash shortage risk warning value Jf is compared with a liquid cash shortage risk warning threshold;

[0026] If the liquid cash shortage risk warning value Jf is less than or equal to the liquid cash shortage risk warning threshold, a liquid cash shortage low risk signal is generated;

[0027] If the working cash shortage risk warning value Jf is smaller than the working cash shortage risk warning threshold, a high risk signal of working cash shortage is generated.

[0028] As a further solution of the present invention: in step 3, the delay time of each uncollected amount in the financial statement is obtained, and the difference between the delay time and the preset delay time is calculated to obtain the excess delay time;

[0029] Calculate the difference between the over-delay time and the preset delay time to obtain the over-delay degree value of the uncollected amount;

[0030] Calculate the average of all the overdue values ​​of uncollected payments to obtain the overdue index of uncollected payments within the evaluation period;

[0031] By formula The bad debt risk index Hz is calculated; where Cy represents the overdue index of uncollected payments, Gc represents the existence index of high-risk delayed payments, γ and δ are both proportional coefficients, the value of γ is 0.58±0.06, the value of δ is 0.42±0.06, and γ+δ=1.

[0032] As a further solution of the present invention: the process of obtaining the high-risk delayed payment existence index is:

[0033] Obtain the amount of each payment received during the evaluation period, calculate the difference between the amount of payment received and the total amount of payment received, and obtain the amount of each payment to be collected;

[0034] comparing the collection amount to a collection amount threshold;

[0035] If the collection amount is less than or equal to the collection amount threshold, the collection amount will be marked as a low-risk delayed payment;

[0036] If the collection amount is greater than the collection amount threshold, the collection amount will be marked as a high-risk delayed payment;

[0037] The number of high-risk delayed payments within the evaluation period is obtained, and the ratio of the number of high-risk delayed payments to the total number of uncollected payments is calculated to obtain the high-risk delayed payment existence index.

[0038] As a further solution of the present invention: in step 4, a bad debt risk index Hz is obtained, and the bad debt risk index Hz is compared with a bad debt risk index threshold;

[0039] If the bad debt risk index Hz is less than or equal to the bad debt risk index threshold, a bad debt low risk signal is generated;

[0040] If the bad debt risk index Hz is greater than the bad debt risk index threshold, a bad debt high risk signal is generated.

[0041] As a further solution of the present invention: in step 5, the initial existing surplus index and the high-risk delayed payment existence index in several historical evaluation periods are obtained, and a coordinate system is established with the initial existing surplus value as the X-axis and the number of high-risk delayed payments as the Y-axis to generate a surplus-existence relationship curve;

[0042] Get the coordinate value of each coordinate in the surplus-existence relationship curve;

[0043] By the formula QL = (X N+1 -X N ) 2 +(Y N+1 -Y N ) 2 , calculate the curve change curvature QL between adjacent coordinates in the residual-existence relationship curve; where X N It represents the X-axis coordinate value of one of all coordinates, and N is the number of all coordinates, that is, X N+1 For X N The Y-axis coordinate value of the adjacent coordinates of the coordinate represented; N It represents the Y-axis coordinate value of one of the coordinates. N+1 Y N The Y-axis coordinate value of the adjacent coordinates of the represented coordinate;

[0044] All curve change curvatures QL in the surplus-existence relationship curve are obtained, variances of all curve change curvatures QL are calculated, fluctuation values ​​of all curve change curvatures QL are obtained, and marked as curvature fluctuation values.

[0045] As a further solution of the present invention: in step six, a curvature fluctuation value is obtained, and the curvature fluctuation value is compared with a curvature fluctuation threshold;

[0046] The curvature fluctuation value is compared with the curvature fluctuation threshold, and if the curvature fluctuation value is greater than the curvature fluctuation threshold, an impact low intensity signal is generated;

[0047] If the curvature fluctuation value is less than or equal to the curvature fluctuation threshold, an impact high intensity signal is generated.

[0048] As a further solution of the present invention: in step seven, the X-axis coordinate value and the Y-axis coordinate value of each coordinate in the surplus-existence relationship curve are ratio-calculated to obtain the influence coefficient between the initial existing surplus value and the number of high-risk delayed payments;

[0049] All the influence coefficients are averaged to obtain the average influence coefficient;

[0050] The initial existing remaining value XM is calculated through the formula XM=Py*Gm; where Py represents the average impact coefficient and Gm represents the number of high-risk delayed payments.

[0051] As a further solution of the present invention: in step eight, the initial existing remaining value XM is obtained, and the initial existing remaining value in the evaluation period is compared with the initial existing remaining value XM;

[0052] If the initial existing surplus value XM is less than or equal to the initial existing surplus value, a low risk signal of financial crisis is generated;

[0053] If the initial existing surplus value XM is greater than the initial existing surplus value, a high risk signal of financial crisis is generated;

[0054] When a low-risk signal of financial crisis is received, it means that the larger the initial existing surplus value, the smaller the risk of financial crisis; conversely, when a high-risk signal of financial crisis is received, it means that the smaller the initial existing surplus value, the greater the risk of financial crisis.

[0055] The present invention provides a financial risk assessment method based on financial statement data, which can judge the impact between the current cash status and the uncollected accounts by analyzing the current cash status and the uncollected accounts, thereby improving the reliability of judging the causes of financial crisis risks, thereby improving the accuracy of financial crisis judgments. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0056] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0057] Figure 1 It is a flowchart of a financial risk assessment method based on financial statement data provided by the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0058] The following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0059] See also Figure 1 As shown, the present invention is a financial risk assessment method based on financial statement data, comprising the following steps:

[0060] Step 1: Obtain the current cash flow data and debt data in the financial statements and calculate the current cash shortage risk warning value;

[0061] Among them, the current cash data includes the current cash outflow value and the current cash inflow value, and the debt data is the debt repayment value;

[0062] In some embodiments, an evaluation period is set, a debt repayment value within the evaluation period is obtained, and a difference is calculated between the initial existing value of liquid cash within the evaluation period and the debt repayment value to obtain an initial existing residual value;

[0063] It should be explained that the evaluation period includes but is not limited to one week, one month and one quarter, and its value is set by the staff in this field according to financial needs; in addition, the initial existing value represents the earliest liquid cash value in the evaluation period;

[0064] The initial existing surplus value is calculated by ratio with the initial existing value to obtain the initial existing surplus index;

[0065] It should be noted that the debt repayment value represents the amount of debt that has reached the latest repayment date within the assessment period, which includes but is not limited to employee wages, bank loans, order payment delivery, etc.

[0066] Furthermore, the current cash outflow value and current cash inflow value within the historical evaluation period are obtained;

[0067] It should be noted that the current cash outflow value represents the sum of all current cash outflow values ​​during the historical evaluation period, and the current cash inflow value is the same as the current cash outflow value;

[0068] Calculate the difference between the current cash inflow and current cash outflow of the historical evaluation period to obtain the current cash change value within the historical evaluation period;

[0069] Compare the current cash flow change value with 0. If the current cash flow change value is greater than 0, mark the evaluation period as an increasing period.

[0070] If the current cash change value is less than 0, the evaluation period is marked as a decline period;

[0071] If the current cash change value is equal to 0, the assessment period is marked as a balanced period;

[0072] Obtain the number of falling cycles marked in all historical evaluation cycles, calculate the ratio of the falling cycles to the number of all historical evaluation cycles, and obtain the falling cycle ratio;

[0073] By formula The liquidity cash shortage risk warning value Jf is calculated; where Lb represents the decline cycle ratio, Xs represents the initial existing surplus index, α and β are both proportional coefficients; and α+β=1;

[0074] It should be explained that the values ​​of α and β are set by personnel in this field.

[0075] Step 2: According to the liquidity cash shortage risk warning value, determine the risk of liquidity cash shortage and generate a liquidity cash shortage risk signal;

[0076] Among them, the liquidity cash shortage risk signal includes a liquidity cash shortage high risk signal and a liquidity cash shortage low risk signal;

[0077] In some embodiments, a liquid cash shortage risk warning value Jf is obtained, and the liquid cash shortage risk warning value Jf is compared with a liquid cash shortage risk warning threshold;

[0078] It should be explained that the calculation method of the working cash shortage risk warning threshold is consistent with the calculation method of the working cash shortage risk warning value Jf; for example, by setting the number of falling cycles in the falling cycle ratio and the initial existing surplus value in the initial existing surplus index, the working cash shortage risk warning threshold can be calculated; in addition, the number of falling cycles and the initial existing surplus value are set by relevant personnel in this field;

[0079] If the liquid cash shortage risk warning value Jf is less than or equal to the liquid cash shortage risk warning threshold, a liquid cash shortage low risk signal is generated; when a liquid cash shortage low risk signal is received, it means that the smaller the liquid cash shortage risk warning value Jf is, the lower the risk of liquid cash shortage is;

[0080] If the liquid cash shortage risk warning value Jf is smaller than the liquid cash shortage risk warning threshold, a liquid cash shortage high risk signal is generated; when a liquid cash shortage high risk signal is received, it means that the larger the liquid cash shortage risk warning value Jf is, the higher the risk of liquid cash shortage is; it is necessary to issue a warning based on the signal to facilitate timely response to the risk of liquid cash shortage.

[0081] Step 3: Based on the high risk signal of cash shortage, obtain the uncollected amount data in the financial statements and calculate the bad debt risk index;

[0082] The collection data includes the delay time of the uncollected payment and the amount of the uncollected payment received;

[0083] In some embodiments, the delay time of each uncollected amount in the financial statement is obtained, and the difference between the delay time and the preset delay time is calculated to obtain the excess delay time;

[0084] Calculate the difference between the over-delay time and the preset delay time to obtain the over-delay degree value of the uncollected amount;

[0085] It should be explained that the preset delay time indicates the maximum expected delay time of the payment, or it can be the delay time negotiated between the delaying party and the payee. The specific value is set by the staff in this field.

[0086] Calculate the average of all the overdue values ​​of uncollected payments to obtain the overdue index of uncollected payments within the evaluation period;

[0087] Furthermore, the amount of each payment received during the evaluation period is obtained, and the difference between the amount of the payment received and the total amount of the payment received is calculated to obtain the amount of each payment to be collected;

[0088] comparing the collection amount to a collection amount threshold;

[0089] It should be noted that the value of the collection amount threshold is set by the staff in this field; for example, it can be set according to whether the amount of the collection has reached 70% of the total amount of the collection. In addition, this example is only for the convenience of understanding;

[0090] If the collection amount is less than or equal to the collection amount threshold, the collection amount will be marked as a low-risk delayed payment;

[0091] If the collection amount is greater than the collection amount threshold, the collection amount will be marked as a high-risk delayed payment;

[0092] Obtain the number of high-risk delayed payments within the assessment period, calculate the ratio of the number of high-risk delayed payments to the total number of uncollected payments, and obtain the high-risk delayed payment existence index;

[0093] The bad debt risk index is calculated by taking the weighted sum of the overdue index of uncollected accounts and the high-risk delayed accounts index;

[0094] For example, by formula The bad debt risk index Hz is calculated; where Cy represents the overdue index of uncollected payments, Gc represents the existence index of high-risk delayed payments, γ and δ are both proportional coefficients, the value of γ is 0.58±0.06, the value of δ is 0.42±0.06, and γ+δ=1.

[0095] Step 4: Determine the bad debt risk of uncollected funds based on the bad debt risk index and generate a bad debt risk signal;

[0096] Among them, bad debt potential risk signals include high bad debt potential risk signals and low bad debt potential risk signals;

[0097] In some embodiments, a bad debt risk index Hz is obtained, and the bad debt risk index Hz is compared with a bad debt risk index threshold;

[0098] It should be noted that the calculation method of the bad debt risk index threshold is the same as that of the bad debt risk index Hz, which will not be repeated here;

[0099] If the bad debt risk index Hz is less than or equal to the bad debt risk index threshold, a bad debt low risk signal is generated; when a bad debt low risk signal is received, it means that the smaller the bad debt risk index Hz is, the lower the bad debt risk is, and further analysis is needed on the reasons for the high risk of cash shortage;

[0100] If the bad debt risk index Hz is greater than the bad debt risk index threshold, a bad debt high risk signal is generated; when a bad debt high risk signal is received, it means that the larger the bad debt risk index Hz is, the higher the bad debt risk is, and a warning is required so that relevant staff can handle the bad debt.

[0101] Step 5: Based on the high risk signal of bad debts, obtain the initial existing residual value and the number of high-risk delayed payments in the historical assessment period, and calculate the curvature fluctuation value;

[0102] In some embodiments, the initial existing surplus index and the high-risk delayed payment existence index in several historical evaluation periods are obtained, and a coordinate system is established with the initial existing surplus value as the X-axis and the number of high-risk delayed payments as the Y-axis to generate a surplus-existence relationship curve;

[0103] Get the coordinate value of each coordinate in the surplus-existence relationship curve;

[0104] By the formula QL = (X N+1 -X N ) 2 +(Y N+1 -Y N ) 2 , calculate the curve change curvature QL between adjacent coordinates in the residual-existence relationship curve; where X N It represents the X-axis coordinate value of one of all coordinates, and N is the number of all coordinates, that is, X N+1 For X N The Y-axis coordinate value of the adjacent coordinates of the coordinate represented; N It represents the Y-axis coordinate value of one of the coordinates. N+1 YN The Y-axis coordinate value of the adjacent coordinates of the represented coordinate;

[0105] It should be explained that the calculation method of the curve change curvature QL is based on the Pythagorean theorem;

[0106] All curve change curvatures QL in the surplus-existence relationship curve are obtained, variances of all curve change curvatures QL are calculated, fluctuation values ​​of all curve change curvatures QL are obtained, and marked as curvature fluctuation values.

[0107] Step 6: Based on the curvature fluctuation value, determine the impact between the initial existing surplus value and the number of high-risk delayed payments, and generate an impact intensity signal;

[0108] Wherein, the influencing intensity signal includes influencing high intensity signal and influencing low intensity signal;

[0109] In some embodiments, obtaining a curvature fluctuation value, and comparing the curvature fluctuation value with a curvature fluctuation threshold;

[0110] It should be noted that the curvature fluctuation threshold represents the fluctuation value that can be presented without affecting the residual-existence relationship curve and can roughly present the variation law of the curve. The value is set by relevant personnel in this field according to the specific coordinate value of the residual-existence relationship curve.

[0111] Compare the curvature fluctuation value with the curvature fluctuation threshold. If the curvature fluctuation value is greater than the curvature fluctuation threshold, a low-intensity impact signal is generated. When a low-intensity impact signal is received, it means that the greater the curvature fluctuation value, the smaller the impact between the initial existing remaining value and the number of high-risk delayed payments, and further analysis of its influencing factors is required.

[0112] If the curvature fluctuation value is less than or equal to the curvature fluctuation threshold, a high-intensity impact signal is generated; when a high-intensity impact signal is received, it means that the smaller the curvature fluctuation value, the greater the impact between the initial existing remaining value and the number of high-risk delayed payments.

[0113] Step 7: Based on the high-intensity impact signal, calculate the initial existing minimum remaining value according to the number of high-risk delayed payments in the assessment period;

[0114] In some embodiments, the X-axis coordinate value and the Y-axis coordinate value of each coordinate in the surplus-existence relationship curve are ratio-calculated to obtain the influence coefficient between the initial existing surplus value and the number of high-risk delayed payments;

[0115] All the influence coefficients are averaged to obtain the average influence coefficient;

[0116] The initial existing remaining value XM is calculated by the formula XM=Py*Gm; where Py represents the average impact coefficient and Gm represents the number of high-risk delayed payments;

[0117] It should be noted that this formula is based on obtaining a high-intensity signal, and the initial existing remaining value XM is calculated according to the equation conversion formula; in addition, the initial existing remaining value XM represents the minimum value that the initial existing remaining value needs to reach during the evaluation period.

[0118] Step 8: Based on the initial existing surplus value, determine whether the initial existing surplus value is too low and generate a financial crisis risk signal;

[0119] Among them, financial crisis risk signals include low financial crisis risk signals and high financial crisis risk signals;

[0120] In some embodiments, an initial existing remaining value XM is obtained, and the initial existing remaining value in the evaluation period is compared with the initial existing remaining value XM;

[0121] If the initial existing surplus value XM is less than or equal to the initial existing surplus value, a low risk signal of financial crisis is generated;

[0122] If the initial existing surplus value XM is greater than the initial existing surplus value, a high risk signal of financial crisis is generated;

[0123] When a low risk signal of financial crisis is received, it means that the larger the initial existing surplus value, the smaller the risk of financial crisis;

[0124] When a high risk signal of financial crisis is received, it means that the smaller the initial existing residual value, the greater the risk of financial crisis. It is necessary to process the uncollected accounts in the financial statements to increase the initial existing residual value and reduce the risk of financial crisis.

[0125] The above is a detailed description of an embodiment of the present invention, but the content is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention and cannot be considered to limit the scope of implementation of the present invention. All equivalent changes and improvements made within the scope of the present invention should still fall within the scope of the patent coverage of the present invention.

Claims

1. A financial risk assessment method based on financial statement data, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: Step 1: Obtain the current cash flow data and debt data in the financial statements, and calculate the current cash shortage risk warning value; the current cash data includes the current cash outflow value and the current cash inflow value, and the debt data is the debt repayment value; Step 2: According to the liquidity cash shortage risk warning value, determine the risk of liquidity cash shortage and generate a liquidity cash shortage risk signal; wherein the liquidity cash shortage risk signal includes a liquidity cash shortage high risk signal and a liquidity cash shortage low risk signal; Step 3: Based on the high risk signal of cash shortage, obtain the uncollected amount data in the financial statements and calculate the bad debt risk index; the collection data includes the delay time of the uncollected amount and the amount of the uncollected amount received; Step 4: According to the bad debt risk index, determine the bad debt risk of the uncollected amount and generate a bad debt potential risk signal; wherein the bad debt potential risk signal includes a high bad debt potential risk signal and a low bad debt potential risk signal; Step 5: Based on the high risk signal of bad debts, obtain the initial existing residual value and the number of high-risk delayed payments in the historical assessment period, and calculate the curvature fluctuation value; Step 6: According to the curvature fluctuation value, determine the impact between the initial existing remaining value and the number of high-risk delayed payments, and generate an impact intensity signal; wherein the impact intensity signal includes an impact high intensity signal and an impact low intensity signal; Step 7: Based on the high-intensity impact signal and the number of high-risk delayed payments in the assessment period, calculate the initial existing minimum remaining value; Step 8: Based on the initial existing remaining value, determine whether the initial existing remaining value is too low, and generate a financial crisis risk signal; wherein the financial crisis risk signal includes a financial crisis low risk signal and a financial crisis high risk signal.

2. A financial risk assessment method based on financial statement data according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step 1, an evaluation period is set, the debt repayment value within the evaluation period is obtained, and the difference between the initial current value of liquid cash within the evaluation period and the debt repayment value is calculated to obtain the initial current residual value; The initial existing surplus value is calculated by ratio with the initial existing value to obtain the initial existing surplus index; Obtain the current cash outflow and current cash inflow values ​​within the historical assessment period; Calculate the difference between the current cash inflow and current cash outflow of the historical evaluation period to obtain the current cash change value within the historical evaluation period; Compare the current cash change value with 0. If the current cash change value is greater than 0, mark the evaluation period as an increasing period. If the current cash change value is less than 0, the evaluation period is marked as a decline period; If the current cash change value is equal to 0, the assessment period is marked as a balanced period; Obtain the number of falling cycles marked in all historical evaluation cycles, calculate the ratio of the falling cycles to the number of all historical evaluation cycles, and obtain the falling cycle ratio; By formula The liquidity cash shortage risk warning value Jf is calculated; wherein Lb represents the decline cycle ratio, Xs represents the initial existing surplus index, α and β are both proportional coefficients; and α+β=1.

3. A financial risk assessment method based on financial statement data according to claim 2, characterized in that: In step 2, a working cash shortage risk warning value Jf is obtained, and the working cash shortage risk warning value Jf is compared with a working cash shortage risk warning threshold; If the liquid cash shortage risk warning value Jf is less than or equal to the liquid cash shortage risk warning threshold, a liquid cash shortage low risk signal is generated; If the working cash shortage risk warning value Jf is smaller than the working cash shortage risk warning threshold, a high risk signal of working cash shortage is generated.

4. A financial risk assessment method based on financial statement data according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step 3, the delay time of each uncollected amount in the financial statement is obtained, and the difference between the delay time and the preset delay time is calculated to obtain the excess delay time; Calculate the difference between the over-delay time and the preset delay time to obtain the over-delay degree value of the uncollected amount; Calculate the average of all the overdue values ​​of uncollected payments to obtain the overdue index of uncollected payments within the evaluation period; By formula The bad debt risk index Hz is calculated; where Cy represents the overdue index of uncollected payments, Gc represents the existence index of high-risk delayed payments, γ and δ are both proportional coefficients, the value of γ is 0.58±0.06, the value of δ is 0.42±0.06, and γ+δ=1.

5. A financial risk assessment method based on financial statement data according to claim 4, characterized in that: The process of obtaining the high-risk delayed payment existence index is as follows: Obtain the amount of each payment received during the evaluation period, calculate the difference between the amount of payment received and the total amount of payment received, and obtain the amount of each payment to be collected; comparing the collection amount to a collection amount threshold; If the collection amount is less than or equal to the collection amount threshold, the collection amount will be marked as a low-risk delayed payment; If the collection amount is greater than the collection amount threshold, the collection amount will be marked as a high-risk delayed payment; The number of high-risk delayed payments within the evaluation period is obtained, and the ratio of the number of high-risk delayed payments to the total number of uncollected payments is calculated to obtain the high-risk delayed payment existence index.

6. A financial risk assessment method based on financial statement data according to claim 4, characterized in that: In step 4, the bad debt risk index Hz is obtained, and the bad debt risk index Hz is compared with the bad debt risk index threshold; If the bad debt risk index Hz is less than or equal to the bad debt risk index threshold, a bad debt low risk signal is generated; If the bad debt risk index Hz is greater than the bad debt risk index threshold, a bad debt high risk signal is generated.

7. The financial risk assessment method based on financial statement data according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step 5, the initial existing surplus index and the high-risk delayed payment existence index in several historical assessment cycles are obtained, and a coordinate system is established with the initial existing surplus value as the X-axis and the number of high-risk delayed payments as the Y-axis to generate a surplus-existence relationship curve; Get the coordinate value of each coordinate in the surplus-existence relationship curve; By the formula QL = (X N+1 -X N ) 2 +(Y N+1 -Y N ) 2 , calculate the curve change curvature QL between adjacent coordinates in the residual-existence relationship curve; where X N It represents the X-axis coordinate value of one of all coordinates, and N is the number of all coordinates, that is, X N+1 For X N The Y-axis coordinate value of the adjacent coordinates of the coordinate represented; N It represents the Y-axis coordinate value of one of the coordinates. N+1 Y N The Y-axis coordinate value of the adjacent coordinates of the represented coordinate; All curve change curvatures QL in the surplus-existence relationship curve are obtained, variances of all curve change curvatures QL are calculated, fluctuation values ​​of all curve change curvatures QL are obtained, and marked as curvature fluctuation values.

8. A financial risk assessment method based on financial statement data according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step six, a curvature fluctuation value is obtained, and the curvature fluctuation value is compared with a curvature fluctuation threshold; The curvature fluctuation value is compared with the curvature fluctuation threshold, and if the curvature fluctuation value is greater than the curvature fluctuation threshold, an impact low intensity signal is generated; If the curvature fluctuation value is less than or equal to the curvature fluctuation threshold, an impact high intensity signal is generated.

9. A financial risk assessment method based on financial statement data according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step 7, the X-axis coordinate value and the Y-axis coordinate value of each coordinate in the surplus-existence relationship curve are ratio-calculated to obtain the influence coefficient between the initial existing surplus value and the number of high-risk delayed payments; All the influence coefficients are averaged to obtain the average influence coefficient; The initial existing remaining value XM is calculated through the formula XM=Py*Gm; where Py represents the average impact coefficient and Gm represents the number of high-risk delayed payments.

10. A financial risk assessment method based on financial statement data according to claim 9, characterized in that: In step eight, the initial existing remaining value XM is obtained, and the initial existing remaining value in the evaluation period is compared with the initial existing remaining value XM; If the initial existing surplus value XM is less than or equal to the initial existing surplus value, a low risk signal of financial crisis is generated; If the initial existing surplus value XM is greater than the initial existing surplus value, a high risk signal of financial crisis is generated; When a low-risk signal of financial crisis is received, it means that the larger the initial existing surplus value, the smaller the risk of financial crisis; conversely, when a high-risk signal of financial crisis is received, it means that the smaller the initial existing surplus value, the greater the risk of financial crisis.

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