A method for risk assessment of temporary inundation area of reservoir based on dispatch simulation

Abstract

The application discloses a reservoir temporary inundated area risk assessment method based on scheduling simulation and relates to the technical field of water conservancy project assessment, and comprises the following steps: step one, data collection and environment modeling; step two, reservoir hydrological dynamics and risk assessment calculation; step three, loss calculation; and step four, temporary inundated area risk assessment. The reservoir temporary inundated area risk assessment method based on scheduling simulation guarantees security and scientificity, optimizes the safety management of the inundated area through risk grading and control measures, and enhances the emergency response capability of the reservoir under high water level scheduling.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of water conservancy project assessment technology, specifically a risk assessment method for temporary inundation zones of reservoirs based on scheduling simulation. Background Technology

[0002] Temporary floodplains in reservoirs play a crucial buffering role during high water level regulation and flood discharge. However, under extreme weather conditions (such as continuous heavy rainfall or floods), the inflow into the reservoir may exceed design standards, necessitating a scientific risk assessment of the safety of the temporary floodplains, their flood discharge capacity, and their potential impact on the surrounding environment.

[0003] Existing reservoir management technologies have the following shortcomings:

[0004] Limited technical means and low level of informatization: Many reservoir management methods still rely on traditional approaches and lack the support of modern information technology, resulting in low management efficiency and difficulty in timely acquisition and processing of reservoir operation data. There is a lack of dynamic and quantitative analysis methods for inundated areas under high water level control conditions.

[0005] Aging monitoring equipment and incomplete data: The monitoring equipment in some reservoirs is outdated, leading to inaccurate or lost data, which cannot fully reflect the real-time situation of the reservoirs, such as water level, flow rate, and dam structure. This makes it difficult for management departments to make scientific decisions.

[0006] Insufficient emergency response capabilities: Many reservoirs lack scientific and comprehensive emergency plans. In the event of emergencies (such as floods, earthquakes, etc.), the response measures are not timely and effective enough, which can easily lead to greater losses.

[0007] Inadequate management system: The management mechanism is imperfect, such as unclear responsibilities and lack of effective coordination mechanisms, which makes it difficult for various departments to cooperate closely in reservoir management and results in low efficiency.

[0008] Weak data analysis and forecasting capabilities: Due to a lack of sufficient historical data and modern data analysis tools, reservoir management struggles to make accurate predictions when conducting water allocation and safety assessments, making it difficult to effectively respond to future changes.

[0009] Insufficient environmental and ecological protection: Traditional reservoir management focuses more on water allocation and safety, while giving insufficient consideration to the impact on the surrounding environment and ecosystem, which can easily lead to problems such as ecological imbalance and water quality deterioration.

[0010] This invention provides a risk assessment method based on high water level scheduling simulation, which combines accurate loss estimates of personnel, farmland, and facilities and equipment to support safety management and emergency decision-making in flooded areas. Summary of the Invention

[0011] To achieve the above objectives, the present invention provides the following technical solution: a risk assessment method for temporary inundation zones of reservoirs based on scheduling simulation, comprising the following steps:

[0012] Step 1: Data collection and environmental modeling;

[0013] Step 2: Calculate reservoir hydrological dynamics and risk assessment;

[0014] Step 3: Loss Calculation;

[0015] Step 4: Risk assessment of temporary flooded areas.

[0016] Preferably, the data collection and environmental modeling specifically include basic data collection, establishing terrain and reservoir models, and risk source identification;

[0017] Specifically, the basic data collection includes collecting meteorological, hydrological, and geological data of the watershed where the reservoir is located, as well as historical flood records.

[0018] The terrain and reservoir model specifically constructs a three-dimensional terrain model of the inundation area through a digital elevation model, with parameters including terrain elevation and surface roughness, forming a simulation scene for subsequent flood simulation and regional risk analysis.

[0019] The risk source identification specifically involves using a geographic information system to analyze key risk sources within the flooded area, including population distribution, infrastructure, and farmland, to support subsequent analysis.

[0020] Preferably, the reservoir hydrological dynamics and risk assessment specifically consists of reservoir water balance calculation and flood diffusion simulation;

[0021] The specific calculation equation for the reservoir water balance calculation is as follows:

[0022]

[0023] Among them, Q in (t) specifically represents the inbound flow rate, indicating the time variation of the inbound flow rate; Q out (t) specifically refers to the outflow from the reservoir, which is controlled by the reservoir scheduling plan;

[0024] The specific calculation equation for the flood diffusion simulation is as follows:

[0025]

[0026] Where h is the water depth, and u and v represent the velocity components of the water flow in the x and y directions, respectively. Indicates changes in water depth;

[0027] The momentum equation in the x-direction is specifically as follows:

[0028]

[0029] The momentum equation in the y-direction is specifically as follows:

[0030]

[0031] Where hu and hv represent momentum densities along the y and y directions, respectively, g represents gravitational acceleration, H represents water level, τ represents shear stress, and ρ represents fluid density.

[0032] Preferably, the loss calculation specifically refers to the potential comprehensive loss L. 总 The specific calculation equation for the potential comprehensive loss is as follows:

[0033] L 总 =w p ·L p +w c ·L c +w f ·L f ;

[0034] Among them, w p w c w f The weights for personnel, farmland, and facility / equipment losses are respectively; L p L c L f These include losses of personnel, losses of cultivated land, and losses of facilities and equipment.

[0035] The specific equation for calculating the personnel losses is as follows:

[0036]

[0037] Among them, D i A represents the population density in base station coverage area i after deduplication. i,flooded This represents the flooded area within the coverage area of ​​base station i after deduplication;

[0038] The specific calculation equation for the loss of cultivated land is as follows:

[0039]

[0040] Among them, A j Y is the flooded area of ​​the j-th crop. j P is the yield per unit area of ​​the j-th crop. j D(d) is the market price of the j-th crop. j ,t j ) is combined with water depth d j and flooding time t j The calculated loss rate;

[0041] The specific calculation equation for the loss of the facilities and equipment is as follows:

[0042]

[0043] Where, N k V represents the number of facilities of type k. k Let D be the unit value of the k-th type of facility. k Let be the loss rate of the k-th type of facility.

[0044] Preferably, the population density in the base station coverage area i is specifically estimated by using the adjusted equipment density D in the overlapping area to estimate the population distribution, and the calculation formula is as follows:

[0045]

[0046] Where N represents the total number of device connections, n represents the number of base stations, and p is the probability of duplicate connections;

[0047] Based on the water depth data d and inundation time t in the remote sensing image, the loss function D(d,t) is defined and calculated as follows:

[0048]

[0049] Where α and β are weighting parameters, set according to crop type and growth stage, d crit and t crit The water depth and time threshold for the complete failure of the crop.

[0050] Preferably, the risk assessment of the temporary flooding area specifically involves determining the risk level of each area through a comprehensive analysis of the water depth, flow velocity, and potential losses in the flooding area, providing a basis for decision-making in scientific scheduling and emergency management;

[0051] The comprehensive risk assessment formula considers the multidimensional weighting effects of water depth, flow velocity, and potential losses, and quantifies the risk of each sub-region into a comprehensive risk value R based on fuzzy mathematics and a nonlinear optimization model. 综合 ;

[0052] The risk level is specifically divided into high-risk areas, medium-risk areas and low-risk areas.

[0053] The specific calculation requirements for the high-risk areas are as follows:

[0054]

[0055] Where, μ H The threshold value representing a high-risk level; β H A threshold representing a high-risk rate of change;

[0056] The specific calculation requirements for the medium-risk area are as follows:

[0057] μ M <R 综合 <μ H ;

[0058] Where, μ M The threshold value indicating a medium-risk level;

[0059] The specific calculation requirements for the low-risk area are as follows:

[0060] R 综合 <μ M .

[0061] Risk levels are not only classified based on the comprehensive risk value, but also take into account the risk change rate to ensure risk sensitivity in a highly dynamic environment.

[0062] Preferably, the comprehensive risk calculation formula is as follows:

[0063]

[0064] Where, f(R) h ,R v ,R L ) is a nonlinear function, reflecting the cumulative effect of risk; λ is a dynamic adjustment coefficient, adjusted based on real-time monitoring data and historical trends; w h w v w L Weights for depth, flow velocity, and potential loss are assigned respectively, satisfying w h +w v +w L =1; R h ,R v ,R L These are standardized risk indicators, respectively, representing water depth, flow velocity, and potential loss.

[0065] Preferably, the water depth risk index R h The specific calculation method is as follows:

[0066]

[0067] Where h represents the water depth distribution function within the region; A represents the flooded area; T h The critical threshold representing water depth;

[0068] The flow velocity risk index R v The specific calculation method is as follows:

[0069]

[0070] Where u and v represent the components of the flow velocity in the x and y directions, respectively, and Th The critical threshold representing the flow rate;

[0071] The potential loss risk indicator R L The specific calculation method is as follows:

[0072]

[0073] Among them, L 区域 =w p ·L p +w c ·L c +w f ·L f L p Indicating personnel loss, L c Indicates loss of arable land; L f L indicates the loss of facilities and equipment. 最大 This represents the maximum loss value across all regions.

[0074] Preferably, the dynamic adjustment coefficient λ takes into account the time-varying characteristics of water depth and flow velocity, and is specifically calculated as follows:

[0075]

[0076] Wherein, α represents the dynamic weighting coefficient, which is used to amplify the impact of risk change trends; These represent the time-varying rates of water depth, flow velocity, and potential loss, respectively.

[0077] This invention provides a method for risk assessment of temporary inundation zones in reservoirs based on scheduling simulation. It has the following beneficial effects:

[0078] I. This risk assessment method for temporary inundation areas of reservoirs based on scheduling simulation, through high water level scheduling and flood discharge scenario simulation, combined with precise loss estimation methods for personnel, farmland and facilities, can provide a more comprehensive, dynamic and scientific risk assessment.

[0079] Second, the risk assessment method for temporary reservoir inundation areas based on scheduling simulation achieves comprehensiveness and accuracy: it adopts an improved loss model for personnel, farmland, and facilities and equipment to accurately analyze the potential losses in reservoir inundation areas.

[0080] Third, this risk assessment method for temporary inundation areas of reservoirs based on scheduling simulation achieves dynamic monitoring and real-time updates: by combining real-time hydrological data and SkyNet monitoring, the timeliness of the assessment is improved.

[0081] Fourth, this risk assessment method for temporary inundation areas of reservoirs based on scheduling simulation achieves both safety and scientific rigor: by optimizing the safety management of inundation areas and enhancing the emergency response capabilities of reservoirs under high water level scheduling through risk classification and control measures. Detailed Implementation

[0082] The present invention will now be described in further detail with reference to specific embodiments. The embodiments of the present invention are given for illustrative and descriptive purposes only, and are not intended to be exhaustive or to limit the invention to the disclosed forms. Many modifications and variations will be apparent to those skilled in the art. The embodiments were chosen and described to better illustrate the principles and practical application of the invention, and to enable those skilled in the art to understand the invention and design various embodiments with various modifications suitable for a particular purpose.

[0083] In a first embodiment, the present invention provides a technical solution: a risk assessment method for temporary inundation zones of reservoirs based on scheduling simulation, comprising the following steps:

[0084] Step 1: Data collection and environmental modeling;

[0085] Data collection and environmental modeling specifically include basic data collection, building terrain and reservoir models, and risk source identification;

[0086] Specifically, the basic data collection includes collecting meteorological, hydrological, and geological data of the watershed where the reservoir is located, as well as historical flood records.

[0087] The terrain and reservoir model specifically constructs a three-dimensional terrain model of the inundation area through a digital elevation model, with parameters including terrain elevation and surface roughness, forming a simulation scene for subsequent flood simulation and regional risk analysis.

[0088] The risk source identification specifically involves using a geographic information system to analyze key risk sources within the flooded area, including population distribution, infrastructure, and farmland, to provide support for subsequent analysis.

[0089] Step 2: Calculate reservoir hydrological dynamics and risk assessment;

[0090] The reservoir hydrological dynamics and risk assessment specifically consists of reservoir water balance calculation and flood diffusion simulation;

[0091] The specific calculation equation for the reservoir water balance calculation is as follows:

[0092]

[0093] Among them, Q in (t) specifically represents the inbound flow rate, indicating the time variation of the inbound flow rate; Q out (t) specifically refers to the outflow from the reservoir, which is controlled by the reservoir scheduling plan;

[0094] The specific calculation equation for the flood diffusion simulation is as follows:

[0095]

[0096] Where h is the water depth, and u and v represent the velocity components of the water flow in the x and y directions, respectively. Indicates changes in water depth;

[0097] The momentum equation in the x-direction is specifically as follows:

[0098]

[0099] The momentum equation in the y-direction is specifically as follows:

[0100]

[0101] Where hu and hv represent the momentum density along the y and y directions, respectively, g represents the gravitational acceleration, H represents the water surface height, τ represents the shear stress, and ρ represents the fluid density;

[0102] Step 3: Loss Calculation;

[0103] Step 4: Risk assessment of temporary flooded areas.

[0104] The second embodiment is based on the first embodiment.

[0105] The loss calculation specifically refers to the potential comprehensive loss L. 总 The specific calculation equation for the potential comprehensive loss is as follows:

[0106] L 总 =w p ·L p +w c ·L c +w f ·L f ;

[0107] Among them, w p w c w f The weights for personnel, farmland, and facility / equipment losses are respectively; L p L c L f These include losses of personnel, losses of cultivated land, and losses of facilities and equipment.

[0108] The specific equation for calculating the personnel losses is as follows:

[0109]

[0110] Among them, D i A represents the population density in base station coverage area i after deduplication. i,flooded This represents the flooded area within the coverage area of ​​base station i after deduplication;

[0111] The specific calculation equation for the loss of cultivated land is as follows:

[0112]

[0113] Among them, A j Y is the flooded area of ​​the j-th crop. j P is the yield per unit area of ​​the j-th crop. j D(d) is the market price of the j-th crop. j ,t j ) is combined with water depth d j and flooding time t j The calculated loss rate;

[0114] The specific calculation equation for the loss of the facilities and equipment is as follows:

[0115]

[0116] Where, N k V represents the number of facilities of type k. k Let D be the unit value of the k-th type of facility. k Let be the loss rate of the k-th type of facility.

[0117] The population density in the base station coverage area i is specifically estimated by using the adjusted equipment density D in the overlapping area to estimate the population distribution, and the calculation formula is as follows:

[0118]

[0119] Where N represents the total number of device connections, n represents the number of base stations, and p is the probability of duplicate connections;

[0120] Based on the water depth data d and inundation time t in the remote sensing image, the loss function D(d,t) is defined and calculated as follows:

[0121]

[0122] Where α and β are weighting parameters, set according to crop type and growth stage, d crit and t crit The water depth and time threshold for the complete failure of the crop.

[0123] The third embodiment is based on embodiments one and two.

[0124] The risk assessment of temporary flooding areas specifically involves determining the risk level of each area through a comprehensive analysis of the water depth, flow velocity, and potential losses in the flooding area, providing a basis for decision-making in scientific scheduling and emergency management.

[0125] The comprehensive risk assessment formula considers the multidimensional weighting effects of water depth, flow velocity, and potential losses, and quantifies the risk of each sub-region into a comprehensive risk value R based on fuzzy mathematics and a nonlinear optimization model. 综合 ;

[0126] The risk level is specifically divided into high-risk areas, medium-risk areas and low-risk areas.

[0127] The specific calculation requirements for the high-risk areas are as follows:

[0128] R 综合 >μ H ,and

[0129] Where, μ H The threshold value representing a high-risk level; β H A threshold representing a high-risk rate of change;

[0130] The specific calculation requirements for the medium-risk area are as follows:

[0131] μ M <R 综合 <μ H ;

[0132] Where, μ M The threshold value indicating a medium-risk level;

[0133] The specific calculation requirements for the low-risk area are as follows:

[0134] R 综合 <μ M .

[0135] Risk levels are not only classified based on the comprehensive risk value, but also take into account the risk change rate to ensure risk sensitivity in a highly dynamic environment.

[0136] The specific formula for calculating comprehensive risk is as follows:

[0137]

[0138] Where, f(R) h ,R v ,R L ) is a nonlinear function, reflecting the cumulative effect of risk; λ is a dynamic adjustment coefficient, adjusted based on real-time monitoring data and historical trends; w h w v w L Weights for depth, flow velocity, and potential loss are assigned respectively, satisfying w h +w v +w L =1; R h ,R v ,R LThese are standardized risk indicators, respectively, representing water depth, flow velocity, and potential loss.

[0139] The water depth risk index R h The specific calculation method is as follows:

[0140]

[0141] Where h represents the water depth distribution function within the region; A represents the flooded area; T h The critical threshold representing water depth;

[0142] The flow velocity risk index R v The specific calculation method is as follows:

[0143]

[0144] Where u and v represent the components of the flow velocity in the x and y directions, respectively, and T h The critical threshold representing the flow rate;

[0145] The potential loss risk indicator R L The specific calculation method is as follows:

[0146]

[0147] Among them, L 区域 =w p ·L p +w c ·L c +w f ·L f L p Indicating personnel loss, L c Indicates loss of arable land; L f L indicates the loss of facilities and equipment. 最大 This represents the maximum loss value across all regions.

[0148] The dynamic adjustment coefficient λ takes into account the time-varying characteristics of water depth and flow velocity, and is calculated as follows:

[0149]

[0150] Wherein, α represents the dynamic weighting coefficient, which is used to amplify the impact of risk change trends; These represent the time-varying rates of water depth, flow velocity, and potential loss, respectively.

[0151] Obviously, the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of them. All other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art and related fields based on the embodiments of the present invention without inventive effort should fall within the scope of protection of the present invention. Structures, devices, and operating methods not specifically described and explained in the present invention, unless otherwise specified or limited, shall be implemented according to conventional means in the art.

Claims

1. A risk assessment method for temporary inundation zones of reservoirs based on scheduling simulation, characterized in that, Includes the following steps: Step 1: Data collection and environmental modeling; Step 2: Calculate reservoir hydrological dynamics and risk assessment; the reservoir hydrological dynamics and risk assessment specifically consists of reservoir water balance calculation and flood diffusion simulation; The specific calculation equation for the reservoir water balance calculation is as follows: Among them, Q in (t) specifically represents the inbound flow rate, indicating the time variation of the inbound flow rate; Q out (t) specifically refers to the outflow from the reservoir, which is controlled by the reservoir scheduling plan; The specific calculation equation for the flood diffusion simulation is as follows: Where h is the water depth, and u and v represent the velocity components of the water flow in the x and y directions, respectively. Indicates changes in water depth; The momentum equation in the x-direction is specifically as follows: The momentum equation in the y-direction is specifically as follows: Where hu and huv represent momentum densities along the x and y directions, respectively, g represents gravitational acceleration, H represents water level, τ represents shear stress, and ρ represents fluid density; Step 3: Loss Calculation; specifically, the loss calculation is the potential comprehensive loss L. 总 The specific calculation equation for the potential comprehensive loss is as follows: L 总 =w p ·L p +w c ·L c +w f ·L f ; Among them, w p w c w f The weights for personnel, farmland, and facility / equipment losses are respectively; L p L c L f These include losses of personnel, losses of cultivated land, and losses of facilities and equipment. The specific equation for calculating the personnel losses is as follows: Among them, D i A represents the population density in base station coverage area i after deduplication. i,flooded This represents the flooded area within the coverage area of ​​base station i after deduplication; The personnel density in the base station coverage area i specifically refers to the adjusted equipment density D in the overlapping area. i The formula for estimating population distribution is as follows: Where, N i Let n represent the total number of connected devices. i p represents the number of base stations. i It represents the probability of repeated connections; The specific calculation equation for the loss of cultivated land is as follows: Among them, A j Y is the flooded area of ​​the j-th crop. j P is the yield per unit area of ​​the j-th crop. j D(d) is the market price of the j-th crop. j ,t j ) is combined with water depth d j and flooding time t j The calculated loss rate; Based on water depth data from remote sensing images d j and flooding time t j Define the loss function D(d) j ,t j The calculation formula is as follows: Wherein, α j and β j The weighting parameter is set according to the crop type and growth stage, d j，crit and t j，crit The water depth and time threshold for complete crop failure; The specific calculation equation for the loss of the facilities and equipment is as follows: Where, N k V represents the number of facilities of type k. k Let D be the unit value of the k-th type of facility. k Let be the loss rate of the k-th type of facility; Step 4: Risk assessment of the temporary flooded area; the comprehensive risk calculation formula is as follows: Where, f(R) h ,R v ,R L ) is a nonlinear function, λ is a dynamic adjustment coefficient, and w h w v w L Let w represent the weights of water depth, flow velocity, and potential loss, respectively, satisfying w h +w v +w L =1; R h ,R v ,R L Standardized risk indicators representing water depth, flow velocity, and potential loss, respectively; The water depth risk index R h The specific calculation method is as follows: Where h represents the water depth; A represents the flooded area; T h The critical threshold representing water depth; The flow velocity risk index R v The specific calculation method is as follows: Where u and v represent the components of the flow velocity in the x and y directions, respectively, and T v The critical threshold representing the flow rate; The potential loss risk indicator R L The specific calculation method is as follows: Among them, L 区域 =w p ·L p +w c ·L c +w f ·L f L p Indicating personnel loss, L c Indicates loss of arable land; L f L indicates the loss of facilities and equipment. 最大 This represents the maximum loss value across all regions; The dynamic adjustment coefficient λ takes into account the time-varying characteristics of water depth and flow velocity, and is calculated as follows: Where α represents the dynamic weighting coefficient, These represent the time-varying rates of water depth, flow velocity, and potential loss, respectively.

2. The method for risk assessment of temporary inundation zones of reservoirs based on scheduling simulation according to claim 1, characterized in that: The data collection and environmental modeling specifically include basic data collection, establishing terrain and reservoir models, and identifying risk sources. Specifically, the basic data collection includes collecting meteorological, hydrological, and geological data of the watershed where the reservoir is located, as well as historical flood records. The terrain and reservoir model is specifically constructed by digital elevation model to create a three-dimensional terrain model of the inundation area, wherein the parameters include terrain elevation and surface roughness. The risk source identification specifically involves using a geographic information system to analyze key risk sources within the flooded area, including population distribution, infrastructure, and farmland.

3. The method for risk assessment of temporary inundation zones of reservoirs based on scheduling simulation according to claim 1, characterized in that: The risk assessment of the temporary flooding area specifically involves determining the risk level of each area through a comprehensive analysis of the water depth, flow velocity, and potential losses in the flooding area, providing a basis for decision-making in scientific scheduling and emergency management. The risk level is specifically divided into high-risk areas, medium-risk areas and low-risk areas. The specific calculation requirements for the high-risk areas are as follows: R 综合 >μ H ,and Where, μ H The threshold value representing a high-risk level; β H A threshold representing a high-risk rate of change; The specific calculation requirements for the medium-risk area are as follows: m M <R 综合 <m H ; Where, μ M The threshold value indicating a medium-risk level; The specific calculation requirements for the low-risk area are as follows: R 综合 <μ M 。

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