Urban update development capacity measuring and calculating method based on financial revenue and expenditure balance

Abstract

The invention discloses a city update development capacity measurement and calculation method based on financial revenue and expenditure balance, and the method comprises the steps: S1, building a public cost measurement and calculation object set: determining public service and municipal infrastructure measurement and calculation objects directly related to city update, and distinguishing the construction cost from the operation cost; s2, constructing a current and total public cost calculation formula: establishing a comprehensive cost calculation model including construction cost, operation cost, financing cost and depreciation cost; s3, subdividing a calculation method of a public cost subject: formulating a specific calculation method, and introducing a correction coefficient; s4, project data acquisition and calculation: acquiring related statistical data and financial reports, preparing data required for subdivided subject calculation, substituting project basic data into a calculation formula, and calculating the public cost of each subdivided subject; according to the method, an operable and accurate reference is provided for reasonably determining the land use function and the development capacity in urban update planning.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of urban renewal development capacity calculation, and in particular to an urban renewal development capacity calculation method based on fiscal revenue and expenditure balance. Background Art

[0002] With the acceleration of my country's urbanization process, urban development has begun to move from the incremental era to the stock era. Urban renewal has become an important way to enhance urban functions, optimize spatial structure, and improve the living environment.

[0003] In the existing technology, 1. All costs of urban renewal projects, including the construction and operation costs of public service facilities and municipal infrastructure, are not systematically considered, which may lead to inaccurate assessment of the financial impact of the project; 2. Only the short-term costs of the project, such as construction costs, are focused on, while the long-term costs of the project, such as operating costs and asset depreciation, are ignored. This may lead to insufficient assessment of the long-term sustainability of the project; 3. There is no detailed classification and measurement of costs, such as distinguishing between per capita construction costs and per-unit construction costs. This may lead to insufficient accuracy and adaptability of cost measurement; 4. The cost of the project is not compared with the local fiscal capacity, making it impossible to evaluate the financial feasibility of the project; therefore, a method for measuring the development capacity of urban renewal based on fiscal balance is proposed. Summary of the invention

[0004] The purpose of this invention is to solve the shortcomings of the prior art, such as lack of comprehensive cost estimation, neglect of the full-cycle cost of the project, insufficient refinement of cost estimation and lack of comparative analysis with fiscal capacity, and to propose a method for estimating urban renewal development capacity based on fiscal balance.

[0005] In order to achieve the above object, the present invention adopts the following technical solutions:

[0006] The urban renewal development capacity calculation method based on fiscal revenue and expenditure balance includes:

[0007] S1: Construction of the public cost measurement object set: Determine the measurement objects of public services and municipal infrastructure directly related to urban renewal, including public service facilities such as education, medical care, culture and sports, community management, and municipal infrastructure such as water supply, drainage, electricity, gas, and environmental sanitation, distinguish between construction costs and operating costs, as well as short-term and long-term costs, to ensure the comprehensiveness and accuracy of the measurement;

[0008] S2: Construction of current and total public cost calculation formula: Establish a comprehensive cost calculation model including construction cost, operation cost, financing cost and depreciation cost. The calculation model reflects the cost and income during the whole life cycle of the project, and is used to assist planning decisions and adjust the development capacity and functional structure of land or buildings;

[0009] S3: Calculation methods for subdivided public cost items: formulate specific calculation methods, such as per capita construction cost, per-unit construction cost, per capita operating cost, etc., to ensure that the cost calculation is meticulous and scientific, introduce correction coefficients, consider the differences between the project and the region, and improve the adaptability and accuracy of the calculation;

[0010] S4: Project data acquisition and calculation: Collect basic project data, such as land area, population carrying capacity, etc., obtain relevant statistical data and financial reports, prepare the data required for the calculation of subdivided items, substitute the basic project data into the calculation formula, and calculate the public cost of each subdivided item;

[0011] S5: Comparative analysis of public costs and fiscal capacity: Analyze the composition of public costs, compare them with local fiscal capacity, and put forward suggestions for optimizing urban renewal planning and adjustment of management and control policies to ensure fiscal balance.

[0012] The above technical solution further includes:

[0013] Furthermore, in S1, the public services and municipal infrastructure measurement objects directly related to urban renewal are determined, and the steps are constructed:

[0014] S1-1: Collect references related to public services and municipal infrastructure, including the latest version of the "National Basic Public Service Standards" formulated by the National Development and Reform Commission and other ministries, as well as the national-level "Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of Public Services" and "Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of Urban Infrastructure Construction" and other documents;

[0015] S1-2: Select the objects of public cost calculation for the construction of urban public service facilities, and determine the four major categories of public services, including education, medical care, culture and sports, and community management. Services that are already covered in the existing plan and do not require additional land or construction (such as shared service facilities), or categories that are mainly provided by the market and the government only plays a guiding role (such as some commercial cultural and sports facilities), should be excluded;

[0016] S1-3: Select the objects for public cost calculation of urban municipal infrastructure construction, retain the five objects for public cost calculation of municipal infrastructure construction, namely water supply, drainage, electricity, gas and environmental sanitation, and selectively calculate urban roads, information and communication, central heating, underground integrated pipeline corridors and landscaping according to the actual conditions of different cities and projects;

[0017] S1-4: Select the objects for calculating the public cost of the operation of urban public service facilities, and determine that the objects for calculating the public cost of the operation of public service facilities include education, medical care, culture and sports, and community management, including preschool education, compulsory education, public hospital medical care, primary medical care, elderly care services, sports venues, libraries, cultural centers, and community services, to ensure that the objects for calculating the operation costs match the objects for calculating the construction costs, and at the same time be consistent with the general public budget accounting items of local governments, and exclude capital construction costs and only retain business expenses;

[0018] S1-5: Select the objects for calculating the public costs of urban municipal infrastructure operations, and choose to take the public costs of municipal infrastructure operations as a whole object for calculation.

[0019] Furthermore, in S2, the comprehensive cost calculation model is established, and the specific steps are as follows:

[0020] S2-1: Analysis of the public cost composition of the entire urban renewal process, mainly including the construction cost and operation cost of public service facilities and municipal infrastructure;

[0021] S2-2: Construction of the calculation formula for the total public cost of urban renewal:

[0022] PC=(BCS+BCI)+(∑OC t +∑MC t )+(FAS·R s ·T s +FAI·R i ·T i )

[0023] Among them, BCS and BCI are the construction costs of public services and infrastructure respectively, which need to be estimated based on the actual engineering quantity and construction cost. OC and MC are the operating costs of public service facilities and the maintenance costs of municipal infrastructure respectively, including staff wages, energy consumption, daily maintenance, etc. FAS and FAI are the financing amounts for the construction of two types of facilities, R is the financing interest rate, and T is the financing duration. The total cost of construction financing is obtained by multiplying these three. The total public cost formula can be used to assist planning decisions by comparing whether the overall input and output of the project are balanced throughout the entire cycle, and then adjusting the development capacity and functional structure of the planned land or building.

[0024] S2-3: Construction of current public cost calculation formula:

[0025] PC t =(DCS t +DCI t )+(OC t +MC t )+(FCS t +FCI t )

[0026] Among them, DCS is the current depreciation cost of public service facilities, DCI is the current depreciation cost of municipal infrastructure facilities, DCS and DCI are calculated based on the original value, depreciation period and depreciation method of the facilities, OC and MC are the current operating costs of public service facilities and maintenance costs of municipal infrastructure respectively, FCS and FCI are the current financing costs of government loans to build public service facilities and municipal infrastructure respectively, and the current public cost formula is used to judge the health of the annual fiscal cash flow of the location and to assess the fiscal surplus or deficit on an annual basis.

[0027] Furthermore, in S2-1, the public cost excludes the land cost of public service facilities and municipal infrastructure. The land cost will be recovered through land transfer fees and other means. At the same time, the operating cost needs to take into account asset depreciation, that is, the cost of the facility gradually decreasing in value as its service life increases. If the facility construction adopts financing method, the financing cost (including interest) needs to be included in the operating cost.

[0028] Furthermore, in S3, a specific calculation method is formulated to construct a set of calculation methods for subdivided subjects:

[0029] S3-1: Construct a method for calculating the per capita construction cost of public service facilities: The construction cost of public service facilities is predicted by population size to ensure that the facilities match the population needs. In reality, the construction and operation of public service facilities are mainly determined by various per thousand indicators and are closely linked to the population size. The calculation formula for the per capita construction cost of public service facilities is:

[0030]

[0031] Among them, Pop t+1 With Pop t are the population size of the local area before and after urban renewal, F1 is the fixed asset investment or fiscal expenditure of different industries in the region during a certain period of time, including the fixed asset investment of the local area, or the fixed asset investment of the public management, social security and social organization industries, Pop inc The new permanent population size of the region within a certain period of time;

[0032] S3-2: Construct a method for calculating the per-unit construction cost of municipal infrastructure: The construction cost of municipal infrastructure is predicted by land area to ensure that infrastructure matches land development. The laying length of various engineering pipelines, road mileage and service radius of sanitation facilities are all more closely related to land area. The calculation formula for the per-unit construction cost of municipal infrastructure is:

[0033]

[0034] Among them, URA is the area of ​​urban renewal projects, F1 is the fixed asset investment in urban municipal public facilities construction or the investment in information transmission, software and information technology service industry infrastructure by industry in the region, CLA is inc is the scale of newly added construction land in the region, and C is the correction coefficient, which is the ratio of the scope of the renewal project to the population density of the region, or the ratio of the average development intensity;

[0035] S3-3: Construct a method for calculating the per capita operating cost of public service facilities: Evaluate the cost of public service facilities during operation to ensure the sustainable operation of the facilities. The per capita operating cost calculation formula for public service facilities is:

[0036]

[0037] Among them, FES is the fiscal expenditure of the corresponding items in the region in a certain period of time, including general education expenditure, public hospital expenditure, primary medical institution expenditure, public health expenditure, cultural and tourism expenditure (excluding administrative operation, general administrative affairs, cultural creation and protection, cultural and tourism market management expenditure), community organization management expenditure in civil affairs, grassroots political power construction and community governance expenditure, and urban and rural community management affairs expenditure in urban and rural community expenditure. PA is the per capita building area of ​​different urban functions in the region;

[0038] S3-4: Construct a method for calculating the per-unit operating cost of municipal infrastructure: Evaluate the overall maintenance cost of municipal infrastructure to ensure effective maintenance and management of facilities. The per-unit operating cost calculation formula for municipal infrastructure is:

[0039]

[0040] Among them, FEI is the fiscal expenditure of different municipal infrastructure maintenance items in the region within a certain period of time, including the expenditure on public facilities in urban and rural communities, the expenditure on environmental sanitation in urban and rural communities, and CLA. inc is the scale of new construction land in the region, and C is the correction coefficient, which is the ratio of the scope of the renewal project to the population density of the region, or the ratio of the average development intensity.

[0041] Furthermore, in S3-1, the objects for calculating the per capita construction cost of public service facilities include the per capita construction cost of education facilities, the per capita construction cost of medical facilities, the per capita construction cost of cultural and sports facilities, and the per capita construction cost of community facilities; in S3-2, the objects for calculating the per capita construction cost of municipal infrastructure include the per capita construction cost of water supply facilities, the per capita construction cost of drainage facilities, the per capita construction cost of gas facilities, the per capita construction cost of sanitation facilities, the construction cost of road traffic, the construction cost of centralized heating, the construction cost of integrated pipeline corridors, the construction cost of landscaping, the construction cost of information and communication, and the construction cost of power facilities; in S3-3, the objects for calculating the per capita operating cost of public service facilities include the per capita construction cost of education facilities, the per capita construction cost of medical facilities, the per capita construction cost of cultural and sports facilities, and the per capita construction cost of community facilities; and in S3-4, the objects for calculating the per capita operating cost of municipal infrastructure are the maintenance costs of various municipal infrastructures.

[0042] Furthermore, in S4, the project data is obtained and calculated, with the following specific steps:

[0043] S4-1: Select urban renewal projects or plans and obtain basic data: define the research object and collect basic data of the project or plan;

[0044] S4-2: Obtain relevant statistical data and policy documents: Collect macroeconomic data, financial data and policy regulations of the project area, obtain the "Local Statistical Yearbook" and "Local General Public Budget Final Accounts" of the administrative region where the project is located in the past five years, the "Urban Construction Statistical Yearbook" of the city where the project is located, the average face value interest rate of local government bonds and urban investment bonds in the city during the measurement period, and the relevant regulations on depreciation of fixed assets and municipal infrastructure in the province, and prepare the data required for the measurement of subdivided items;

[0045] S4-3: Substitute the sub-subject measurement method set for calculation: Use the collected basic data of the project or plan and the sub-subject measurement method set to calculate the construction cost and operation cost of public service facilities and municipal infrastructure;

[0046] S4-4: Substitute the total cost and current cost calculation formula for calculation: Substitute the calculation results of the subdivided items into the total public cost and current public cost calculation formula for calculation.

[0047] Furthermore, in S4-1, the basic data sources of the project or plan are the special urban renewal plan, the urban renewal unit plan and the urban renewal project implementation plan. The basic data include land area, development intensity, per capita housing area, employment density, and the population carrying capacity of the measured object after urban renewal. The population carrying capacity of the project area after urban renewal is predicted based on existing data and future development trends.

[0048] Furthermore, in S4-3, the per capita construction cost, per-area construction cost, per-capita operating cost and per-area operating cost are calculated respectively according to the set of measurement methods constructed in S3.

[0049] The present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0050] 1. In the present invention, the potential fiscal expenditure brought about by the negative externalities of spatial incremental urban renewal activities is calculated, so that local governments can predict the relevant short-term and long-term fiscal expenditure amounts based on spatial planning plans and reasonably formulate their own financial plans.

[0051] 2. The present invention realizes the calculation of public costs of urban renewal activities at different scales and spatial levels, which can be applied to special urban renewal plans at the district, administrative district and city levels, so that the local balance of fiscal revenue and expenditure in one place can move towards a general balance in the whole area, and coordinate fiscal revenue and expenditure in a larger scope to support macro decision-making. It has strong universality, and all required data come from public and normalized government statistical reports and information disclosed in accordance with the law, and is applicable to cities at all levels across the country.

[0052] 3. In the present invention, it is possible to further analyze whether the public cost and income side of the spatial incremental urban renewal project are balanced. The income side includes capital income brought by land transactions, mainly the land transfer fees paid for urban renewal projects, and the land value-added tax, urban construction maintenance tax, education surcharge, etc. generated in the subsequent real estate development and sales process. The operating income mainly comes from corporate income tax, stamp duty and other taxes generated by economic activities. The comparison between public costs and income is an important auxiliary analysis tool for optimizing and adjusting the planning of urban renewal projects. Through financial analysis, the optimal development capacity, function, and functional ratio can be inferred. It is also the basis for the overall planning of relevant regions and the formulation of fiscal and taxation collection policies. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0053] Figure 1 A flow chart of the method for calculating the urban renewal development capacity based on fiscal revenue and expenditure balance proposed by the present invention;

[0054] Figure 2 A schematic diagram of constructing a public cost estimation object set in the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0055] The following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0056] See also Figure 1-Figure 2As shown, the present invention is a method for calculating the urban renewal development capacity based on fiscal revenue and expenditure balance, comprising:

[0057] S1: Construction of the public cost measurement object set: Determine the measurement objects of public services and municipal infrastructure directly related to urban renewal, including public service facilities such as education, medical care, culture and sports, community management, and municipal infrastructure such as water supply, drainage, electricity, gas, and environmental sanitation, distinguish between construction costs and operating costs, as well as short-term and long-term costs, to ensure the comprehensiveness and accuracy of the measurement;

[0058] S2: Construction of current and total public cost calculation formula: Establish a comprehensive cost calculation model including construction cost, operation cost, financing cost and depreciation cost. The calculation model reflects the cost and income during the whole life cycle of the project, and is used to assist planning decisions and adjust the development capacity and functional structure of land or buildings;

[0059] S3: Calculation methods for subdivided public cost items: formulate specific calculation methods, such as per capita construction cost, per-unit construction cost, per capita operating cost, etc., to ensure that the cost calculation is meticulous and scientific, introduce correction coefficients, consider the differences between the project and the region, and improve the adaptability and accuracy of the calculation;

[0060] S4: Project data acquisition and calculation: Collect basic project data, such as land area, population carrying capacity, etc., obtain relevant statistical data and financial reports, prepare the data required for the calculation of subdivided items, substitute the basic project data into the calculation formula, and calculate the public cost of each subdivided item;

[0061] S5: Comparative analysis of public costs and fiscal capacity: Analyze the composition of public costs, compare them with local fiscal capacity, and put forward suggestions for optimizing urban renewal planning and adjustment of management and control policies to ensure fiscal balance.

[0062] In one embodiment, for the above S1, in S1, the public services and municipal infrastructure measurement objects directly related to urban renewal are determined, and the construction steps are:

[0063] S1-1: Collect references related to public services and municipal infrastructure, including the latest version of the "National Basic Public Service Standards" formulated by the National Development and Reform Commission and other ministries, as well as the national-level "Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of Public Services" and "Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of Urban Infrastructure Construction" and other documents;

[0064] S1-2: Select the objects of public cost calculation for the construction of urban public service facilities, and determine the four major categories of public services, including education, medical care, culture and sports, and community management. Services that are already covered in the existing plan and do not require additional land or construction (such as shared service facilities), or categories that are mainly provided by the market and the government only plays a guiding role (such as some commercial cultural and sports facilities), should be excluded;

[0065] S1-3: Select the objects for public cost calculation of urban municipal infrastructure construction, retain the five objects for public cost calculation of municipal infrastructure construction, namely water supply, drainage, electricity, gas and environmental sanitation, and selectively calculate urban roads, information and communication, central heating, underground integrated pipeline corridors and landscaping according to the actual conditions of different cities and projects;

[0066] S1-4: Select the objects for calculating the public cost of the operation of urban public service facilities, and determine that the objects for calculating the public cost of the operation of public service facilities include education, medical care, culture and sports, and community management, including preschool education, compulsory education, public hospital medical care, primary medical care, elderly care services, sports venues, libraries, cultural centers, and community services, to ensure that the objects for calculating the operation costs match the objects for calculating the construction costs, and at the same time be consistent with the general public budget accounting items of local governments, and exclude capital construction costs and only retain business expenses;

[0067] S1-5: Select the objects for calculating the public cost of operating urban municipal infrastructure. The maintenance expenditures of various types of municipal infrastructure are usually not directly reflected in the relevant statistics and financial reports in terms of itemization, but only the total amount of maintenance expenditures. Therefore, the public cost of operating municipal infrastructure is selected as a whole object for calculation.

[0068] In one embodiment, for the above S2, in S2, a comprehensive cost calculation model is established, and the specific steps are as follows:

[0069] S2-1: Analysis of the public cost composition of the entire process of urban renewal, mainly including the construction cost and operation cost of public service facilities and municipal infrastructure. In the construction stage, since the land for public facilities is usually allocated free of charge, the acquisition of land use rights does not incur public costs. Whether the engineering cost is incurred depends on whether the existing service capacity of the project area can meet the needs after the renewal. Whether the engineering cost should be included in the public cost depends on the expenditure subject of the cost. For example, the situation of the "build-transfer" model such as the construction of kindergartens in residential areas by developers should be excluded. In the operation stage, although these facilities do not create economic benefits, they are included in fixed assets because of their service potential. The asset valuation adopts historical cost measurement, and the depreciation of assets should be included in the public cost. The public cost of this stage also includes the operation cost of public service facilities and the subsequent costs such as daily maintenance and upkeep incurred by the normal use of municipal infrastructure. In addition, the financing costs incurred by some projects built with non-self-owned funds should also be included in the public cost. The occurrence of public costs may run through the early construction stage and the later operation stage, and is determined by the interest rate, term and financing amount;

[0070] S2-2: Construction of the calculation formula for the total public cost of urban renewal:

[0071] PC=(BCS+BCI)+(∑OC t +∑MC t )+(FAS·R s ·T s +FAI·R i ·T i )

[0072] Among them, BCS and BCI are the construction costs of public services and infrastructure respectively, which need to be estimated based on the actual engineering quantity and construction cost. OC and MC are the operating costs of public service facilities and the maintenance costs of municipal infrastructure respectively, including staff wages, energy consumption, daily maintenance, etc. FAS and FAI are the financing amounts for the construction of two types of facilities, R is the financing interest rate, and T is the financing duration. The total cost of construction financing is obtained by multiplying these three. The total public cost formula can be used to assist planning decisions by comparing whether the overall input and output of the project are balanced throughout the entire cycle, and then adjusting the development capacity and functional structure of the planned land or building.

[0073] S2-3: Construction of current public cost calculation formula:

[0074] PC t =(DCS t +DCI t )+(OC t +MC t )+(FCS t +FCI t )

[0075] Among them, DCS is the current depreciation cost of public service facilities, DCI is the current depreciation cost of municipal infrastructure facilities, DCS and DCI are calculated based on the original value, depreciation period and depreciation method of the facilities, OC and MC are the current operating costs of public service facilities and maintenance costs of municipal infrastructure respectively, FCS and FCI are the current financing costs of government loans to build public service facilities and municipal infrastructure respectively, and the current public cost formula is used to judge the health of the annual fiscal cash flow of the location and to assess the fiscal surplus or deficit on an annual basis.

[0076] In one embodiment, for the above S2-1, in S2-1, the public cost excludes the land cost of public service facilities and municipal infrastructure. The land cost will be recovered through land transfer fees and other means. At the same time, asset depreciation needs to be considered in the operating cost, that is, the cost of the facility gradually decreasing in value as the facility's service life increases. If the facility construction adopts financing, the financing cost (including interest) needs to be included in the operating cost.

[0077] In one embodiment, for the above S3, in S3, the specific calculation method is formulated to construct a set of calculation methods for subdivided subjects:

[0078] S3-1: Construct a method for calculating the per capita construction cost of public service facilities: The construction cost of public service facilities is predicted by population size to ensure that the facilities match the population needs. In reality, the construction and operation of public service facilities are mainly determined by various thousand-person indicators and are closely linked to the population size. The formula for calculating the per capita construction cost of public service facilities is:

[0079]

[0080] Among them, Pop t+1 With Pop t are the population size of the local area before and after urban renewal, F1 is the fixed asset investment or fiscal expenditure of different industries in the region during a certain period of time, including the fixed asset investment of the local area, or the fixed asset investment of the public management, social security and social organization industries, Pop inc The new permanent population size of the region within a certain period of time;

[0081] S3-2: Construct a method for calculating the per-unit construction cost of municipal infrastructure: Use land area to predict the construction cost of municipal infrastructure to ensure that infrastructure matches land development. The laying length of various engineering pipelines, road mileage, and service radius of sanitation facilities are all more closely related to land area. The calculation formula for the per-unit construction cost of municipal infrastructure is:

[0082]

[0083] Among them, URA is the area of ​​urban renewal projects, F1 is the fixed asset investment in urban municipal public facilities construction or the investment in information transmission, software and information technology service industry infrastructure by industry in the region, CLA is inc is the scale of newly added construction land in the region, and C is the correction coefficient, which is the ratio of the scope of the renewal project to the population density of the region, or the ratio of the average development intensity;

[0084] S3-3: Construct a method for calculating the per capita operating cost of public service facilities: Evaluate the cost of public service facilities during operation to ensure the sustainable operation of the facilities. The per capita operating cost calculation formula for public service facilities is:

[0085]

[0086] Among them, FES is the fiscal expenditure of the corresponding items in the region in a certain period of time, including general education expenditure, public hospital expenditure, primary medical institution expenditure, public health expenditure, cultural and tourism expenditure (excluding administrative operation, general administrative affairs, cultural creation and protection, cultural and tourism market management expenditure), community organization management expenditure in civil affairs, grassroots political power construction and community governance expenditure, and urban and rural community management affairs expenditure in urban and rural community expenditure. PA is the per capita building area of ​​different urban functions in the region;

[0087] S3-4: Construct a method for calculating the per-unit operating cost of municipal infrastructure: Evaluate the overall maintenance cost of municipal infrastructure to ensure effective maintenance and management of facilities. The per-unit operating cost calculation formula for municipal infrastructure is:

[0088]

[0089] Among them, FEI is the fiscal expenditure of different municipal infrastructure maintenance items in the region within a certain period of time, including the expenditure on public facilities in urban and rural communities, the expenditure on environmental sanitation in urban and rural communities, and CLA. inc is the scale of new construction land in the region, and C is the correction coefficient, which is the ratio of the scope of the renewal project to the population density of the region, or the ratio of the average development intensity.

[0090] In one embodiment, for the above S3-1, in S3-1, the objects for calculating the per capita construction cost of public service facilities include the per capita construction cost of education facilities, the per capita construction cost of medical facilities, the per capita construction cost of cultural and sports facilities, and the per capita construction cost of community facilities; in S3-2, the objects for calculating the per capita construction cost of municipal infrastructure include the per capita construction cost of water supply facilities, the per capita construction cost of drainage facilities, the per capita construction cost of gas facilities, the per capita construction cost of sanitation facilities, the per capita construction cost of road traffic, the construction cost of centralized heating, the construction cost of integrated pipe corridors, the construction cost of landscaping, the construction cost of information and communication, and the construction cost of power facilities; in S3-3, the objects for calculating the per capita operating cost of public service facilities include the per capita construction cost of education facilities, the per capita construction cost of medical facilities, the per capita construction cost of cultural and sports facilities, and the per capita construction cost of community facilities; and in S3-4, the objects for calculating the per capita operating cost of municipal infrastructure are the maintenance costs of various municipal infrastructures.

[0091] In one embodiment, for the above S4, in S4, the project data is obtained and calculated, specifically in the following steps:

[0092] S4-1: Select urban renewal projects or plans and obtain basic data: define the research object and collect basic data of the project or plan;

[0093] S4-2: Obtain relevant statistical data and policy documents: Collect macroeconomic data, financial data and policy regulations of the project area, obtain the "Local Statistical Yearbook" and "Local General Public Budget Final Accounts" of the administrative region where the project is located in the past five years, the "Urban Construction Statistical Yearbook" of the city where the project is located, the average face value interest rate of local government bonds and urban investment bonds in the city during the measurement period, and the relevant regulations on depreciation of fixed assets and municipal infrastructure in the province, and prepare the data required for the measurement of subdivided items;

[0094] S4-3: Substitute the sub-subject measurement method set for calculation: Use the collected basic data of the project or plan and the sub-subject measurement method set to calculate the construction cost and operation cost of public service facilities and municipal infrastructure;

[0095] S4-4: Substitute the total cost and current cost calculation formula for calculation: Substitute the calculation results of the subdivided items into the total public cost and current public cost calculation formula for calculation.

[0096] In this embodiment, a certain urban renewal project in a certain city in my country is selected, and the basic data of the required urban renewal unit planning is obtained. The project covers an area of ​​about 4.44 hectares, with a total of 5 property plots, including 3 industrial lands, 1 residential land and 1 commercial office land, with a total building volume of about 107,000 square meters and an average floor area ratio of 2.42. It is planned that the building volume after urban renewal through demolition and reconstruction will be about 162,000 square meters. After the renewal, the residential and commercial office plots will be integrated into independent residential plots; two industrial lands will be integrated into emerging industrial lands, mainly for the construction of industrial R&D buildings and industrial supporting buildings with commercial office functions as the main functions; another industrial land will be changed to public management and public service facilities land; other corner lands will be changed to park green land and square land. In the case of not counting the volume of public service facilities, parks and square ancillary buildings, the floor area ratio of residential and industrial plots has reached 7.1, which is a typical high-intensity incremental renewal. According to the per capita floor area occupied by each function, the total population carried by the project before and after the renewal is 3,950 and 6,787 respectively, an increase of about 72%;

[0097] Obtain the "Local Statistical Yearbook" and "Local General Public Budget Final Accounts" of the administrative region where the project is located in the past five years, the "Urban Construction Statistical Yearbook" of the city where the project is located, the average face value interest rate of local government bonds and urban investment bonds in the city during the measurement period, and the relevant regulations on depreciation of fixed assets and municipal infrastructure in the province, and obtain the required data for each sub-item listed in S3;

[0098] Substitute the data obtained in S4-2 into the calculation formulas of each sub-item listed in S3 to obtain the results. Among them, the construction cost of various supporting public service facilities is calculated with the goal of filling the corresponding construction part of the carrying population added value, which is about 165 million yuan; because the supporting facilities of the new residential area are complete after demolition and reconstruction and are built by the developer, the corresponding community facilities cost is reduced to 141 million yuan; the cost of municipal infrastructure construction is 66.08 million yuan. Considering that the area where the project is located is a mature built-up area, although all the above-ground buildings are demolished and rebuilt, most of the municipal infrastructure is rebuilt, expanded and technologically transformed; therefore, the proportion of renovation and expansion in the total fixed asset investment in the city is reduced to 66.08 million yuan. The three-year average proportion of the quantity is used as the correction coefficient, and the public cost is about 6.08 million yuan; the construction cost of the two types of facilities is 147 million yuan in total; the financing cost corresponding to the construction cost is calculated based on an interest rate of 3.5% and a financing ratio of 10%, 30% and 50%, and the annual costs are about 510,000, 1.54 million and 2.57 million yuan; in terms of operation and maintenance, the average annual operation cost of public service facilities is about 37.65 million yuan. Taking into account that the operating entity of the supporting kindergarten in the residential area after the renewal is a market entity, the three-year average proportion of preschool education to general education expenditure in the administrative area where the project is located is used as the correction coefficient, and the cost after exemption of the corresponding part is about 31.93 million yuan. The average annual infrastructure maintenance cost is calculated based on the average cost of the administrative district where the project is located, which is about 800,000 yuan. However, because the land development intensity within the scope of the project far exceeds the average development intensity of the area where the project is located, the average infrastructure maintenance cost per unit area is corrected using the ratio of the two, which is about 2.33 million yuan. The average annual public cost of the two types of facilities totals 34.26 million yuan, which is a long-term burden of fiscal funds reflected in "income-expenditure". Although the depreciation cost does not require annual fiscal funds, it is a cost reflected in "assets-liabilities". Taking into account the level of construction of various types of facilities under the influence of the economic development level of the city where the project is located, the depreciation period of various types of assets is calculated according to the same type of high standard. The average annual depreciation cost of public service facilities is about 3.88 million yuan, and the average annual depreciation cost of municipal infrastructure is about 2.3 million yuan, totaling about 6.18 million yuan per year.

[0099] Substituting the calculated results in S4-3 into the total public cost and current public cost calculation formula constructed in S2, the following results are obtained: the total public cost is calculated based on the transfer period of 30 years and 70 years for the transferable industrial and residential land within the unit, respectively, with total costs of approximately RMB 1.35 billion and RMB 2.95 billion, respectively, and the supporting construction costs only account for approximately 11% and 5% of the total costs; the current public cost is approximately RMB 40.43 million, and due to the uncertainty of the construction financing amount, the combined potential financing cost can rise to RMB 45.58 million at most.

[0100] In one embodiment, for the above S4-1, in S4-1, the basic data source of the project or plan is the urban renewal special plan, the urban renewal unit plan and the urban renewal project implementation plan. The basic data includes land area, development intensity, per capita housing area, employment density, and predicts the population carrying capacity of the measured object after urban renewal. Based on existing data and future development trends, the population carrying capacity of the project area after urban renewal is predicted.

[0101] In one embodiment, for the above S4-3, in S4-3, according to the calculation method set constructed in S3, the per capita construction cost, the per-area construction cost, the per capita operating cost and the per-area operating cost are calculated respectively.

[0102] In this embodiment, the total public cost and the current public cost calculation results are analyzed in S5, and it can be seen that: in terms of total public cost, in the context of the rated land price of residential land in the area where the project is located exceeding 21,000 yuan / square meter, the land transfer fee generated by the incremental construction of residential buildings alone has far exceeded the supporting construction costs, and short-term fiscal balance is not difficult; but it should be noted that the long-term costs account for more than 90% of the total cost. Because before the expiration of the land transfer period, the government will find it difficult to obtain new land income except for industrial contributions and taxes and fees generated by real estate transactions; if the land transfer fee paid for the project due to incremental renewal cannot be converted into new capital after paying short-term construction costs, local finances are likely to face the situation of "eating up the mountain";

[0103] In terms of current public costs, the per-land tax revenue should reach about 910 million yuan / square kilometer, so that the fiscal cash flow can be balanced in this local space of the project without considering payment transfers; but because only 1.32 hectares of new industrial land can really contribute to tax revenue in this project, and the rest are residential, public service and green land, the per-land tax revenue of industrial land as the tax base is required to reach 3.06 billion yuan / square kilometer; this target far exceeds the average of 1.54 billion yuan / square kilometer in the administrative region, indicating that the long-term fiscal balance of the area may face huge pressure;

[0104] Based on the comprehensive calculation of total public costs and current public costs, the project should consider optimizing the planning scheme and enhancing the long-term sustainable operation capacity after the update by reducing development intensity and population carrying capacity, increasing the proportion of land use functions that can contribute long-term tax revenue, and reserving some public property space for rental profit.

[0105] Although embodiments of the present invention have been shown and described, it will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that various changes, modifications, substitutions and variations may be made to the embodiments without departing from the principles and spirit of the present invention, and that the scope of the present invention is defined by the appended claims and their equivalents.

Claims

1. The urban renewal development capacity calculation method based on fiscal revenue and expenditure balance is characterized by: include: S1: Construction of the public cost measurement object set: Determine the measurement objects of public services and municipal infrastructure directly related to urban renewal, and distinguish between construction costs and operating costs; S2: Construction of current and total public cost calculation formula: Establish a comprehensive cost calculation model including construction cost, operation cost, financing cost and depreciation cost. The calculation model reflects the cost and income during the whole life cycle of the project, and is used to assist planning decisions and adjust the development capacity and functional structure of land or buildings; S3: Calculation methods for subdivided public cost items: formulate specific calculation methods and introduce correction factors; S4: Project data acquisition and calculation: Collect basic project data, obtain relevant statistical data and financial reports, prepare the data required for the calculation of subdivided items, substitute the basic project data into the calculation formula, and calculate the public cost of each subdivided item; S5: Comparative analysis of public costs and fiscal capacity: Analyze the composition of public costs and compare them with local fiscal capacity.

2. The urban renewal development capacity calculation method based on fiscal revenue and expenditure balance according to claim 1 is characterized in that: In S1, the public services and municipal infrastructure measurement objects directly related to urban renewal are determined, and the construction steps are as follows: S1-1: Collect references related to public services and municipal infrastructure; S1-2: Select the objects for public cost estimation of urban public service facilities construction, and determine the four public service facilities construction objects for public cost estimation, including education, medical care, culture and sports, and community management; S1-3: Select the objects for public cost calculation of urban municipal infrastructure construction, retain the five objects for public cost calculation of municipal infrastructure construction, namely water supply, drainage, electricity, gas and environmental sanitation, and selectively calculate urban roads, information and communication, central heating, underground integrated pipeline corridors and landscaping according to the actual conditions of different cities and projects; S1-4: Select the objects of public cost calculation for the operation of urban public service facilities, and determine that the objects of public cost calculation for the operation of public service facilities include education, medical care, culture and sports, and community management, including preschool education, compulsory education, public hospital medical care, primary medical care, elderly care services, sports venues, libraries, cultural centers, and community services. At the same time, they should be consistent with the general public budget accounting items of local governments, and exclude capital construction expenses and only retain business expenses; S1-5: Select the objects for calculating the public costs of urban municipal infrastructure operations, and choose to take the public costs of municipal infrastructure operations as a whole object for calculation.

3. The urban renewal development capacity calculation method based on fiscal revenue and expenditure balance according to claim 1 is characterized in that: In S2, the comprehensive cost calculation model is established, and the specific steps are as follows: S2-1: Analysis of the public cost composition of the entire urban renewal process, mainly including the construction cost and operation cost of public service facilities and municipal infrastructure; S2-2: Construction of the calculation formula for the total public cost of urban renewal: PC=(BCS+BCI)+(∑OC t +∑MC t )+(FAS·R s ·T s +FAI·R i ·T i ) Among them, BCS and BCI are the construction costs of public services and infrastructure respectively, OC and MC are the operating costs of public service facilities and the maintenance costs of municipal infrastructure respectively, FAS and FAI are the financing amounts for the construction of the two types of facilities, R is the financing interest rate, and T is the financing duration. The product of these three is the total cost of construction financing; S2-3: Construction of current public cost calculation formula: PC t =(DCS t +DCI t )+(OC t +MC t )+(FCS t +FCI t ) Among them, DCS is the depreciation cost of public service facilities in the current period, DCI is the depreciation cost of municipal infrastructure facilities in the current period, OC and MC are the operating cost of public service facilities and the maintenance cost of municipal infrastructure in the current period, respectively, and FCS and FCI are the current financing costs of government loans for the construction of public service facilities and municipal infrastructure, respectively.

4. The urban renewal development capacity calculation method based on fiscal revenue and expenditure balance according to claim 3 is characterized in that: In S2-1, the public cost excludes the land cost of public service facilities and municipal infrastructure. At the same time, the operating cost needs to take into account asset depreciation, that is, the cost of gradually decreasing the value of the facility as the facility ages. If the facility construction adopts financing, the financing cost needs to be included in the operating cost. S3: Calculation method of subdivided public cost items: formulate specific calculation methods and introduce correction factors.

5. The urban renewal development capacity calculation method based on fiscal revenue and expenditure balance according to claim 1 is characterized in that: In S3, the specific calculation method is formulated to construct a set of calculation methods for subdivided subjects: S3-1: Construct a method for calculating the per capita construction cost of public service facilities: The construction cost of public service facilities is predicted by population size to ensure that the facilities match the population demand. The per capita construction cost calculation formula for public service facilities is: Among them, Pop t+1 With Pop t are the population size before and after urban renewal, FI is the fixed asset investment or fiscal expenditure in different industries in the region within a certain period of time, including the fixed asset investment in different industries in the location, or the fixed asset investment in the public management, social security and social organization industries, Pop inc The new permanent population size of the region within a certain period of time; S3-2: Construct a method for calculating the per-unit construction cost of municipal infrastructure: Use land area to predict the construction cost of municipal infrastructure to ensure that infrastructure matches land development. The per-unit construction cost calculation formula for municipal infrastructure is: Among them, URA is the area of ​​urban renewal projects, F1 is the fixed asset investment in urban municipal public facilities construction or the investment in information transmission, software and information technology service industry infrastructure by industry in the region, CLA is inc is the scale of newly added construction land in the region, and C is the correction coefficient, which is the ratio of the scope of the renewal project to the population density of the region, or the ratio of the average development intensity; S3-3: Construct a method for calculating the per capita operating cost of public service facilities: Evaluate the cost of public service facilities during operation to ensure the sustainable operation of the facilities. The per capita operating cost calculation formula for public service facilities is: Among them, FES is the fiscal expenditure of the corresponding items in the region in a certain period, including general education expenditure, public hospital expenditure, primary medical institution expenditure, public health expenditure, cultural and tourism expenditure, community organization management expenditure in civil affairs management affairs, grassroots political power construction and community governance expenditure, and urban and rural community management affairs expenditure in urban and rural community expenditure. PA is the per capita total building area of ​​different urban functions in the region; S3-4: Construct a method for calculating the per-unit operating cost of municipal infrastructure: Evaluate the overall maintenance cost of municipal infrastructure to ensure effective maintenance and management of facilities. The per-unit operating cost calculation formula for municipal infrastructure is: Among them, FEI is the fiscal expenditure of different municipal infrastructure maintenance items in the region within a certain period of time, including the expenditure on public facilities in urban and rural communities, the expenditure on environmental sanitation in urban and rural communities, and CLA. inc is the scale of new construction land in the region, and C is the correction coefficient, which is the ratio of the scope of the renewal project to the population density of the region, or the ratio of the average development intensity.

6. The urban renewal development capacity calculation method based on fiscal revenue and expenditure balance according to claim 5 is characterized in that: In S3-1, the objects of calculation for per capita construction cost of public service facilities include per capita construction cost of education facilities, per capita construction cost of medical facilities, per capita construction cost of cultural and sports facilities, and per capita construction cost of community facilities. In S3-2, the objects of calculation for per capita construction cost of municipal infrastructure include per capita construction cost of water supply facilities, drainage facilities, gas facilities, sanitation facilities, road traffic, central heating, integrated pipeline corridor, landscaping, information and communication, and power facilities. In S3-3, the objects of calculation for per capita operating cost of public service facilities include per capita construction cost of education facilities, per capita construction cost of medical facilities, per capita construction cost of cultural and sports facilities, and per capita construction cost of community facilities. In S3-4, the objects of calculation for per capita operating cost of municipal infrastructure are maintenance costs of various municipal infrastructures.

7. The urban renewal development capacity calculation method based on fiscal revenue and expenditure balance according to claim 1 is characterized in that: In S4, project data acquisition and calculation, specific steps: S4-1: Select urban renewal projects or plans and obtain basic data: define the research object and collect basic data of the project or plan; S4-2: Obtain relevant statistical data and policy documents: Collect macroeconomic data, financial data and policy regulations of the project area; S4-3: Substitute the sub-subject measurement method set for calculation: Use the collected basic data of the project or plan and the sub-subject measurement method set to calculate the construction cost and operation cost of public service facilities and municipal infrastructure; S4-4: Substitute the total cost and current cost calculation formula for calculation: Substitute the calculation results of the subdivided items into the total public cost and current public cost calculation formula for calculation.

8. The method for calculating urban renewal development capacity based on fiscal revenue and expenditure balance according to claim 7 is characterized in that: In S4-1, the basic data sources of the project or plan are the special urban renewal plan, urban renewal unit plan and urban renewal project implementation plan. The basic data include land area, development intensity, per capita housing area, employment density, and the population carrying capacity of the measured object after urban renewal. The population carrying capacity of the project area after urban renewal is predicted based on existing data and future development trends.

9. The urban renewal development capacity calculation method based on fiscal revenue and expenditure balance according to claim 7 is characterized in that: In S4-3, the per capita construction cost, per-area construction cost, per capita operating cost and per-area operating cost are calculated respectively according to the set of measurement methods constructed in S3.

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