Power system production simulation method and system considering peak load characteristics of coal-fired units

Abstract

The present invention provides a method and system for simulating the production of a power system that takes into account the peak-shaving characteristics of coal-fired units. The implementation scheme is as follows: each time a peak-shaving unit is put into operation, the system's demand rate and non-demand rate for the transfer between various output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time are determined based on the probability of insufficient power in the system last time it was put into operation, thereby, and using the output load of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time, the demand rate and non-demand rate for the transfer between the corresponding states are respectively corrected to obtain the transfer rate between various output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time. Furthermore, the steady-state probability of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time is accurately determined, and the output model of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time and the output model of the system in this operation can be accurately determined based on this accurate steady-state probability. Thus, the reliability index of the system after the peak-shaving unit is put into operation this time is accurately obtained.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of electric power technology, and in particular to a method and system for simulating production of an electric power system taking into account the peak-shaving characteristics of coal-fired units. Background Art

[0002] Power system random production simulation is an important tool for power system power planning and unit operation plan formulation. This method can calculate the output of each unit under different operating modes and can be used for research that only considers the output characteristics of the generator unit and the system load curve. The random production simulation of the new power system can be divided into simulation method and analytical method.

[0003] Among them, the simulation method is mainly the Monte Carlo method, which simulates the system state by counting the system failure frequency. However, the simulation method has a huge amount of calculation, slow convergence speed and insufficient calculation accuracy. The analytical method can construct a clear and simple mathematical model, and the calculation cost is also lower than that of the Monte Carlo simulation method, such as the equivalent power function method and sequence convolution operation.

[0004] Existing stochastic production simulation methods mostly use two-state or three-state models when considering the output of generator sets. In today's context of large-scale renewable energy access, coal-fired units are responsible for peak load regulation, and often need to respond quickly to load demand to reduce output or quickly increase load. Simple two-state models and three-state models often cannot reflect the peak load characteristics of the units. Summary of the invention

[0005] The present invention provides a method, device, system and medium for simulating power system production taking into account the peak-shaving characteristics of coal-fired units, which can solve at least one of the above technical problems.

[0006] According to one aspect of the present invention, there is provided a method for simulating power system production taking into account the peak load characteristics of coal-fired units, comprising: In the case where the coal-fired unit put into operation this time in the power system is a peak-shaving unit, based on the probability of power shortage of the power system in the last operation, determining the demand rate and non-demand rate of the power system for the transfer between various output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time; Based on the output load of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time, respectively correct the demand rate and the non-demand rate of the transfer between corresponding states to obtain the transfer rate of the transfer between each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time; Determining the steady-state probability of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time based on the transfer rate between each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time; Determining the output model of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time based on the steady-state probability of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time; Determine the output model of the power system in this operation based on the output model of the coal-fired unit in this operation and the output model of the power system in the last operation; Based on the output model of the power system in this operation, the reliability index of the power system in this operation is determined, wherein the reliability index at least includes the probability of power shortage.

[0007] According to another aspect of the present invention, there is provided a power system production simulation device taking into account the peak load characteristics of coal-fired units, comprising: A demand rate determination module, in the case where the coal-fired unit put into operation this time of the power system is a peak-shaving unit, determines the demand rate and non-demand rate of the power system for the transfer between various output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time based on the power shortage probability of the power system in the last operation; A transfer rate determination module, for respectively correcting the demand rate and the non-demand rate for transfers between corresponding states based on the output loads of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time, to obtain the transfer rate for transfers between each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time; A steady-state probability determination module, used to determine the steady-state probability of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time based on the transfer rate between each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time; A first model determination module is used to determine the output model of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time based on the steady-state probability of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time; A second model determination module is used to determine the output model of the power system in this operation based on the output model of the coal-fired unit in this operation and the output model of the power system in the last operation; The reliability index determination module is used to determine the reliability index of the power system in this operation based on the output model of the power system in this operation, wherein the reliability index at least includes the probability of power shortage.

[0008] By adopting the technical solution of the present invention, each time a peak-shaving unit is put into operation, the demand rate and non-demand rate of the system for the transfer between the various output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time are determined according to the probability of insufficient power of the system put into operation last time, thereby, and using the output load of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time, the demand rate and non-demand rate of the transfer between the corresponding states are respectively corrected to obtain the transfer rate between the various output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time. Furthermore, the steady-state probability of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time can be accurately determined, and the output model of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time and the output model of the system put into operation this time can be accurately determined based on this accurate steady-state probability. Therefore, the reliability index of the system after the peak-shaving unit is put into operation this time can be accurately obtained. In this way, based on these reliability indexes, accurate support can be provided for the operation strategy of the power system.

[0009] According to the impact of different peak-shaving states and the timing characteristics of renewable energy on random production simulation, the reliability analysis of the power system under different states is carried out. At the same time, a clear and efficient mathematical model is established to improve the simulation rate.

[0010] It should be understood that the contents described in this section are not intended to identify the key or important features of the embodiments of the present invention, nor are they intended to limit the scope of the present invention. Other features of the present invention will become easily understood through the following description. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0011] The accompanying drawings are used to better understand the present invention and do not constitute a limitation of the present invention. Figure 1 It is a flow chart of a power system production simulation method considering the peak load characteristics of coal-fired units according to an embodiment of the present invention; Figure 2 is a schematic diagram of state switching of a coal-fired unit according to an embodiment of the present invention; Figure 3 is a schematic diagram of state switching of each coal-fired unit in a power system according to an embodiment of the present invention; Figure 4 is a schematic diagram of state switching of each coal-fired unit in a power system according to another embodiment of the present invention; Figure 5 It is a structural block diagram of a power system production simulation device considering the peak load characteristics of coal-fired units according to an embodiment of the present invention; Figure 6 The block diagram is a block diagram of an electronic device for implementing the method according to the embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0012] The following is a description of exemplary embodiments of the present invention in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, including various details of the embodiments of the present invention to facilitate understanding, which should be considered as merely exemplary. Therefore, it should be appreciated by those of ordinary skill in the art that various changes and modifications may be made to the embodiments described herein without departing from the scope of the present invention. Similarly, for clarity and conciseness, descriptions of well-known functions and structures are omitted in the following description.

[0013] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of a method for simulating power system production taking into account the peak-shaving characteristics of coal-fired units according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0014] like Figure 1 As shown, the power system production simulation method considering the peak load characteristics of coal-fired units may include: S110, when the coal-fired unit put into operation this time in the power system is a peak-shaving unit, based on the probability of power shortage in the power system in the last operation, determining the demand rate and non-demand rate of the power system for the transfer between various output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time; S120, based on the output load of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time, respectively correct the demand rate and non-demand rate of the transfer between the corresponding states to obtain the transfer rate of the transfer between the various output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time; S130, determining the steady-state probability of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time based on the transfer rate between each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time; S140, determining an output model of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time based on the steady-state probability of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time; S150, based on the output model of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time and the output model of the power system put into operation last time, determine the output model of the power system put into operation this time; S160, based on the output model of the power system in this operation, determining the reliability index of the power system in this operation, wherein the reliability index at least includes the probability of power shortage.

[0015] It can be understood that the above steps S110 to S160 are a production simulation process of the power system.

[0016] According to the above implementation mode, each time a peak-shaving unit is put into operation, the demand rate and non-demand rate of the system for the transfer between the various output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time are determined based on the probability of insufficient power of the system put into operation last time, thereby, and using the output load of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time, the demand rate and non-demand rate of the transfer between the corresponding states are respectively corrected to obtain the transfer rate between the various output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time. Furthermore, the steady-state probability of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time can be accurately determined, and the output model of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time and the output model of the system put into operation this time can be accurately determined based on this accurate steady-state probability. Therefore, the reliability index of the system after the peak-shaving unit is put into operation this time can be accurately obtained. In this way, based on these reliability indicators, accurate support can be provided for the operation strategy of the power system.

[0017] In one embodiment, the above may also include: based on the basic load demand of the power system, determining the base load operation number of coal-fired units that meet the basic load demand; successively putting coal-fired units into operation starting from 1 in the power system and the number of coal-fired units put into operation each time is 1; when the total number of coal-fired units put into operation in the power system is greater than the base load operation number, determining that the coal-fired units put into operation this time in the power system are peak-shaving units.

[0018] Exemplarily, when the total number of coal-fired units in operation of the power system is less than or equal to the number of base load units in operation, the coal-fired units in operation currently in the power system are determined to be base load units.

[0019] It can be understood that the base load unit is a coal-fired unit put into operation to meet the basic load demand of the power system. The peak load unit is a coal-fired unit put into operation to meet the peak load demand after the basic load demand is met.

[0020] Exemplarily, the base load operation number can be determined using the following constraints: ; in, is the lowest level load demand of the power system. The penultimate level of load demand for the power system. For the power system The rated output of each generator set is is the base load number.

[0021] Exemplarily, when the total number of coal-fired units in operation of the power system is less than or equal to the number of base load units in operation, the production simulation process of the power system is as follows: 1. Use the following formula to determine Output model of the first coal-fired unit put into operation: ; in, Indicates The two-state output model of the first coal-fired unit can be Figure 2 As shown, including forced shutdown state and rated operation state, represents the forced outage rate of the two-state output model, Indicates The rated output of the coal-fired unit put into operation for the first time.

[0022] 2. Use the following formula to put the base load coal-fired units into operation in the order in which the coal-fired units are put into operation, and determine the output model of the power system at each operation, as follows: ; in, Indicates that the power system Output model of the first coal-fired unit after commissioning. Indicates The two-state output model of the first coal-fired unit put into operation, Indicates that the power system The first coal-fired unit put into operation The steady-state probability of the output state, Indicates that the power system The first coal-fired unit put into operation The output size of each output state, Represents the joint operation of various output models.

[0023] 3. Use the following formula, based on the power system in the The output model of the coal-fired unit after commissioning is used to calculate the reliability indicators, including the probability of power shortage, the expected value of power shortage and the expected value of power generation, as follows: ; ; ; in, Indicates that the power system The first time it was put into operation The probability of power shortage at the moment After the first coal-fired unit was put into operation At that moment, the probability that the load demand cannot be met due to insufficient power supply capacity, which indicates the possibility that the system cannot provide enough power; Indicates that the power system The first time it was put into operation The expected value of power shortage at the moment After the first coal-fired unit was put into operation, At a certain moment, it is the expected value of the total power shortage caused by its inability to meet the load demand. It measures the power supply gap of the power system at a specific time. Indicates that the power system The first time it was put into operation The expected value of power generation at the time After the first coal-fired unit was put into operation, At the moment, considering its possible states and the expected value of power generation under the corresponding probabilities, it measures its contribution to the system; Indicates that the power system Load of time.

[0024] It can be understood that in the above steps S150 and S160, the output model and reliability index in the peak load regulation process can be calculated according to the above steps 2 and 3.

[0025] According to the above implementation, the operation and production simulation of the coal-fired unit can be carried out under the base load state, and can also be carried out under the peak load state to obtain accurate reliability indicators of the power system.

[0026] In one implementation, each time a peak load regulating unit is put into operation, the demand rate of the power system for the transfer between various output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation can be calculated according to the following formula, specifically: ; Each time a peak load-shaving unit is put into operation, the non-demand rate of the power system for the transfer between the various output states of the coal-fired units put into operation can be calculated according to the following formula, specifically: ; in, ; ; ; in, Indicates the power system The first coal-fired unit put into operation The output state is transferred to The demand rate of each output state, Indicates The first coal-fired unit put into operation Output status The steady-state probability at time Indicates that the power system After the first commissioning, The output size under each output state, Indicates that the power system After the first commissioning, The output size under each output state, express; in, Indicates the power system The first coal-fired unit put into operation The output state is transferred to The non-demand rate of each output state, Indicates The jth output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation is The steady-state probability at time in, Indicates that the power system The output after the first commissioning is Indicates The first coal-fired unit put into operation The output size of each output state, Indicates The first coal-fired unit put into operation The output size of each output state.

[0027] According to the above implementation mode, each time the peak load regulating unit is put into operation, the demand rate and non-demand rate of the transfer between different output states can be accurately calculated.

[0028] In some implementations, based on the output load of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time, the demand rate and non-demand rate of the transfer between the corresponding states are respectively corrected, and the calculation formula for the transfer rate between the various output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time is obtained as follows: ; ; ; ; in, Indicates The first coal-fired unit put into operation The output state is transferred to The transfer rate of the output state, Indicates the power system The first coal-fired unit put into operation The output state is transferred to The demand rate of each output state, Indicates The first coal-fired unit put into operation Output state to The climbing time of each output state, Indicates The first coal-fired unit put into operation The output size of each output state, Indicates The first coal-fired unit put into operation The output size of each output state, Indicates the rate of load change; in, Indicates The first coal-fired unit put into operation The output state is transferred to The transfer rate of the output state, Indicates the power system The first coal-fired unit put into operation The output state is transferred to The non-demand rate of each output state, Indicates The first coal-fired unit put into operation Output state to The landslide time of each output state.

[0029] According to the above implementation, based on the output load of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time, the demand rate and non-demand rate of transfer between corresponding states are corrected respectively, so that the transfer rate between each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time can be accurately obtained.

[0030] In one embodiment, based on the transfer rate between each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time, the steady-state probability of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time is determined, including: based on the transfer rate between each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time, the state transfer matrix of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time is determined; based on the product between the state transfer matrix of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time and the steady-state probability variables of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time, and the restriction conditions of the steady-state probability variables of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time, the corresponding state transfer equation is constructed; the state transfer equation is solved to obtain the steady-state probability of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time.

[0031] According to the above implementation mode, the steady-state probability of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation can be accurately calculated, which facilitates the subsequent accurate calculation of the reliability index of the power system.

[0032] In one embodiment, the state transition matrix A is: in, , , , , and Indicates that the power system The demand rate of the coal-fired unit put into operation from the first output state to the second output state, wherein the first output state represents the output state at the sorting position corresponding to the left value in the bracket of the corresponding symbol, and the second output state represents the output state at the sorting position corresponding to the right value in the bracket of the corresponding symbol. , the first output state is the first output state, and the second output state is the Output status.

[0033] in, , , , , and Indicates that the power system The non-demand rate of the coal-fired unit put into operation for the second time from the third output state to the fourth output state, wherein the third output state represents the output state at the sorting position corresponding to the left value in the bracket of the corresponding symbol, and the fourth output state represents the output state at the sorting position corresponding to the right value in the bracket of the corresponding symbol. For example, for the symbol , the third output state is the nth output state, and the fourth output state is the jth output state.

[0034] in, , , , , , , , , , , and Indicates The ramp time from the fifth output state to the sixth output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation for the second time, wherein the fifth output state represents the output state at the sorting position corresponding to the starting value of the subscript numerical range in the corresponding symbol, and the sixth output state represents the output state at the sorting position corresponding to the ending value of the subscript numerical range in the corresponding symbol. For example, for the symbol , the fifth output state is the nth output state, and the sixth output state is the jth output state.

[0035] in, Indicates Repair rate of coal-fired units put into operation for the first time, Indicates The first coal-fired unit to be put into operation is The failure rate of each output state, Indicates the total number of output states.

[0036] like Figure 3 and Figure 4 As shown in , it shows the process of the model output state change. Figure 3 As shown, the unit model responding to the load demand of the power system, the present invention adopts a multi-state model to determine the load position, that is, to reflect the characteristics of the unit under different output states during the peak load regulation process, and the unit performs peak load regulation above the base load. Figure 4 As shown, the unit model meets the short-term load demand during the peak load period. The present invention adopts a multi-state model to determine the load position, and the unit is started and stopped quickly during the peak load period.

[0037] Exemplarily, the calculation formula of the repair rate is as follows: ; in, express Exemplarily, the calculation formula of the failure rate is as follows: ; in, express, express, express, express.

[0038] In one embodiment, the state transition equation is: ; in, Indicates The first coal-fired unit put into operation The steady-state probability variable of the output state, represents the state transition matrix.

[0039] In one implementation, based on the steady-state probabilities of the various output states of the coal-fired units put into operation this time, the output model of the coal-fired units put into operation this time is determined, and the following formula can be used for calculation: ; in, Indicates The output model of the first coal-fired unit put into operation at time t, Indicates The first coal-fired unit put into operation The steady-state probability of an output state at time t, No. The first coal-fired unit put into operation The output size of each output state at time t, Indicates The total number of output states of coal-fired units put into operation.

[0040] In one implementation, the constraints of the output model of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time may be as follows: ; in, Indicates The output model of the first coal-fired unit put into operation at time t-1, Indicates The load change rate of the coal-fired unit put into operation for the first time, Indicates The load change time of the first coal-fired unit put into operation, Indicates Output model of the first coal-fired unit put into operation at time t.

[0041] In one embodiment, the power system The reliability index of the coal-fired unit after its first commissioning can be calculated according to the following formula: ; ; ; in, represents the wind power consumption space of the power system at time t, represents the wind curtailment rate of the power system at time t, represents the expected value of wind power abandonment in the power system at time t, Indicates The loading rate of the first coal-fired unit put into operation at time t is: Indicates The minimum technical output probability of the coal-fired unit put into operation for the first time, Indicates The minimum technical output of the first coal-fired unit put into operation.

[0042] In one implementation, the final reliability index of the power system is as follows: ; ; ; ; in, represents the probability of insufficient power in the power system, Indicates that the power system is short of the expected value. represents the wind curtailment rate of the power system, It represents the expected value of wind power abandonment in the power system.

[0043] Figure 5 It is a structural block diagram of a power system production simulation device taking into account the peak-shaving characteristics of coal-fired units according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0044] like Figure 5 As shown, the power system production simulation device considering the peak load characteristics of coal-fired units includes: The demand rate determination module 510 determines the demand rate and non-demand rate of the power system for the transfer between various output states of the coal-fired unit in operation this time based on the power shortage probability of the power system in the last operation, when the coal-fired unit in operation this time is a peak load unit; The transfer rate determination module 520 is used to correct the demand rate and the non-demand rate for transfer between corresponding states based on the output load of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time, so as to obtain the transfer rate for transfer between each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time; A steady-state probability determination module 530, configured to determine the steady-state probability of each output state of the currently operated coal-fired unit based on the transfer rate between each output state of the currently operated coal-fired unit; A first model determination module 540 is used to determine the output model of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time based on the steady-state probability of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time; The second model determination module 550 is used to determine the output model of the power system in this operation based on the output model of the coal-fired unit in this operation and the output model of the power system in the last operation; The reliability index determination module 560 is used to determine the reliability index of the power system in this operation based on the output model of the power system in this operation, wherein the reliability index at least includes the probability of power shortage.

[0045] In one embodiment, it is characterized in that the above device may also include: A number determination module, used to determine the base load operation number of coal-fired units that meet the base load demand based on the base load demand of the power system; A unit operation module, used for successively operating coal-fired units in the power system starting from 1 and the number of coal-fired units put into operation each time is 1; The peak-shaving unit determination module is used to determine that the coal-fired units in operation of the power system are peak-shaving units when the total number of coal-fired units in operation of the power system is greater than the number of base load units in operation.

[0046] In one embodiment, the power system's demand rate for the transfer between various output states of the currently operated coal-fired unit is: ; The non-demand rate of the power system for the transfer between the various output states of the coal-fired units put into operation this time is: ; in, ; ; ; in, Indicates that the power system The first coal-fired unit put into operation The output state is transferred to The demand rate of each output state, Indicates The first coal-fired unit put into operation Output status The steady-state probability at time Indicates that the power system After the first commissioning, The output size under each output state, Indicates that the power system After the first commissioning, The output size under each output state, Indicates that the power system The load of the moment; in, Indicates that the power system The first coal-fired unit put into operation The output state is transferred to The non-demand rate of each output state, Indicates The jth output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation is The steady-state probability at time in, Indicates that the power system The output after the first commissioning is Indicates The first coal-fired unit put into operation The output size of each output state, Indicates The first coal-fired unit put into operation The output size of each output state.

[0047] In one embodiment, based on the output load of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time, the demand rate and the non-demand rate of the transfer between the corresponding states are respectively corrected, and the calculation formula for the transfer rate between the various output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time is obtained as follows: ; ; ; ; in, Indicates The first coal-fired unit put into operation The output state is transferred to The transfer rate of the output state, Indicates that the power system The first coal-fired unit put into operation The output state is transferred to The demand rate of each output state, Indicates The first coal-fired unit put into operation Output state to The climbing time of each output state, Indicates The first coal-fired unit put into operation The output size of each output state, Indicates The first coal-fired unit put into operation The output size of each output state, Indicates the rate of load change; in, Indicates The first coal-fired unit put into operation The output state is transferred to The transfer rate of the output state, Indicates that the power system The first coal-fired unit put into operation The output state is transferred to The non-demand rate of each output state, Indicates The first coal-fired unit put into operation Output state to The landslide time of each output state.

[0048] In one implementation, the steady-state probability determination module 530 includes: A matrix determination unit, configured to determine a state transfer matrix of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time based on a transfer rate between various output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time; A transfer equation determination module, used to construct a corresponding state transfer equation based on the product of the state transfer matrix of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time and the steady-state probability variables of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time, and the restriction conditions of the steady-state probability variables of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time; The equation solving module is used to solve the state transfer equation to obtain the steady-state probability of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time.

[0049] In one implementation, the state transfer matrix A is: in, , , , , and Indicates that the power system The demand rate of the coal-fired unit put into operation for the first time to transfer from the first output state to the second output state, wherein the first output state represents the output state at the sorting position corresponding to the left value in the brackets of the corresponding symbol, and the second output state represents the output state at the sorting position corresponding to the right value in the brackets of the corresponding symbol; in, , , , , and Indicates that the power system The non-demand rate of the coal-fired unit put into operation for the second time, which is transferred from the third output state to the fourth output state, wherein the third output state represents the output state at the sorting position corresponding to the left value in the brackets of the corresponding symbol, and the fourth output state represents the output state at the sorting position corresponding to the right value in the brackets of the corresponding symbol; in, , , , , , , , , , , and Indicates The ramp time from the fifth output state to the sixth output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation for the second time, wherein the fifth output state represents the output state at the sorting position corresponding to the starting value of the subscript numerical range in the corresponding symbol, and the sixth output state represents the output state at the sorting position corresponding to the ending value of the subscript numerical range in the corresponding symbol; in, Indicates Repair rate of coal-fired units put into operation for the first time, Indicates The first coal-fired unit to be put into operation is The failure rate of each output state, Indicates the total number of output states.

[0050] 7. The method according to claim 5, characterized in that the state transfer equation is: ; in, Indicates The first coal-fired unit put into operation The steady-state probability variable of the output state, Denotes the state transfer matrix.

[0051] For the description of specific functions and examples of each module and submodule of the system in the embodiment of the present invention, reference can be made to the relevant description of the corresponding steps in the above method embodiment, which will not be repeated here.

[0052] In the technical solution of the present invention, the acquisition, storage and application of user personal information involved are in compliance with the provisions of relevant laws and regulations and do not violate public order and good morals.

[0053] According to an embodiment of the present invention, the present invention also provides a system and a readable storage medium.

[0054] Figure 6 A schematic block diagram of an example electronic device 800 that can be used to implement an embodiment of the present invention is shown. The electronic device is intended to represent various forms of digital computers, such as laptop computers, desktop computers, workstations, personal digital assistants, servers, blade servers, mainframe computers, and other suitable computers. The electronic device can also represent various forms of mobile devices, such as personal digital assistants, cellular phones, smart phones, wearable devices, and other similar computing devices. The components shown herein, their connections and relationships, and their functions are merely examples and are not intended to limit the implementation of the present invention described and / or required herein.

[0055] like Figure 6As shown, the device 800 includes a computing unit 801, which can perform various appropriate actions and processes according to a computer program stored in a read-only memory (ROM) 802 or a computer program loaded from a storage unit 808 to a random access memory (RAM) 803. In the RAM 803, various programs and data required for the operation of the device 800 can also be stored. The computing unit 801, the ROM 802, and the RAM 803 are connected to each other via a bus 804. An input / output (I / O) interface 805 is also connected to the bus 804.

[0056] A number of components in the device 800 are connected to the I / O interface 805, including: an input unit 806, such as a keyboard, a mouse, etc.; an output unit 807, such as various types of displays, speakers, etc.; a storage unit 808, such as a disk, an optical disk, etc.; and a communication unit 809, such as a network card, a modem, a wireless communication transceiver, etc. The communication unit 809 allows the device 800 to exchange information / data with other devices through a computer network such as the Internet and / or various telecommunication networks.

[0057] The computing unit 801 may be a variety of general and / or special processing components with processing and computing capabilities. Some examples of the computing unit 801 include, but are not limited to, a central processing unit (CPU), a graphics processing unit (GPU), various dedicated artificial intelligence (AI) computing chips, various computing units running machine learning model algorithms, digital signal processors (DSPs), and any appropriate processors, controllers, microcontrollers, etc. The computing unit 801 performs the various methods and processes described above, such as a power system production simulation method considering the peak-shaving characteristics of coal-fired units. For example, in some embodiments, the power system production simulation method considering the peak-shaving characteristics of coal-fired units may be implemented as a computer software program, which is tangibly contained in a machine-readable medium, such as a storage unit 808. In some embodiments, part or all of the computer program may be loaded and / or installed on the device 800 via the ROM 802 and / or the communication unit 809. When the computer program is loaded into the RAM 803 and executed by the computing unit 801, one or more steps of the power system production simulation method considering the peak-shaving characteristics of coal-fired units described above may be performed. Alternatively, in other embodiments, the computing unit 801 may be configured in any other appropriate manner (eg, by means of firmware) to execute a power system production simulation method that takes into account the peak-shaving characteristics of coal-fired units.

[0058] Various implementations of the systems and techniques described above herein can be implemented in digital electronic circuit systems, integrated circuit systems, field programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), application specific integrated circuits (ASICs), application specific standard products (ASSPs), systems on chips (SOCs), load programmable logic devices (CPLDs), computer hardware, firmware, software, and / or combinations thereof. These various implementations can include: being implemented in one or more computer programs that can be executed and / or interpreted on a programmable system including at least one programmable processor, which can be a special purpose or general purpose programmable processor that can receive data and instructions from a storage system, at least one input device, and at least one output device, and transmit data and instructions to the storage system, the at least one input device, and the at least one output device.

[0059] The program code for implementing the method of the present invention can be written in any combination of one or more programming languages. These program codes can be provided to a processor or controller of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer or other programmable data processing device, so that the program code, when executed by the processor or controller, enables the functions / operations specified in the flow chart and / or block diagram to be implemented. The program code can be executed entirely on the machine, partially on the machine, partially on the machine as a stand-alone software package and partially on a remote machine, or entirely on a remote machine or server.

[0060] In the context of the present invention, a machine-readable medium may be a tangible medium that may contain or store a program for use by or in conjunction with an instruction execution system, device, or equipment. A machine-readable medium may be a machine-readable signal medium or a machine-readable storage medium. A machine-readable medium may include, but is not limited to, an electronic, magnetic, optical, electromagnetic, infrared, or semiconductor system, device, or equipment, or any suitable combination of the foregoing. A more specific example of a machine-readable storage medium may include an electrical connection based on one or more lines, a portable computer disk, a hard disk, a random access memory (RAM), a read-only memory (ROM), an erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM or flash memory), an optical fiber, a portable compact disk read-only memory (CD-ROM), an optical storage device, a magnetic storage device, or any suitable combination of the foregoing.

[0061] To provide interaction with a user, the systems and techniques described herein can be implemented on a computer having: a display device (e.g., a CRT (cathode ray tube) or LCD (liquid crystal display) monitor) for displaying information to the user; and a keyboard and pointing device (e.g., a mouse or trackball) through which the user can provide input to the computer. Other types of devices can also be used to provide interaction with the user; for example, the feedback provided to the user can be any form of sensory feedback (e.g., visual feedback, auditory feedback, or tactile feedback); and input from the user can be received in any form (including acoustic input, voice input, or tactile input).

[0062] The systems and techniques described herein may be implemented in a computing system that includes back-end components (e.g., as a data server), or a computing system that includes middleware components (e.g., an application server), or a computing system that includes front-end components (e.g., a user computer with a graphical user interface or a web browser through which a user can interact with implementations of the systems and techniques described herein), or a computing system that includes any combination of such back-end components, middleware components, or front-end components. The components of the system may be interconnected by any form or medium of digital data communication (e.g., a communication network). Examples of communication networks include: a local area network (LAN), a wide area network (WAN), and the Internet.

[0063] A computer system may include a client and a server. The client and the server are generally remote from each other and usually interact through a communication network. The relationship of client and server is generated by computer programs running on respective computers and having a client-server relationship with each other. The server may be a cloud server, a server of a distributed system, or a server combined with a blockchain.

[0064] It should be understood that the various forms of processes shown above can be used to reorder, add or delete steps. For example, the steps described in the present invention can be executed in parallel, sequentially or in different orders, as long as the desired results of the technical solution disclosed in the present invention can be achieved, and this document does not limit this.

[0065] The above specific implementations do not constitute a limitation on the protection scope of the present invention. It should be understood by those skilled in the art that various modifications, combinations, sub-combinations and substitutions can be made according to design requirements and other factors. Any modification, equivalent substitution and improvement made within the principles of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for simulating power system production considering the peak load characteristics of coal-fired units, characterized in that: include: In the case where the coal-fired unit put into operation this time in the power system is a peak-shaving unit, based on the probability of power shortage of the power system in the last operation, determining the demand rate and non-demand rate of the power system for the transfer between various output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time; Based on the output load of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time, respectively correct the demand rate and the non-demand rate of the transfer between corresponding states to obtain the transfer rate of the transfer between each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time; Determining the steady-state probability of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time based on the transfer rate between each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time; Determining the output model of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time based on the steady-state probability of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time; Determine the output model of the power system in this operation based on the output model of the coal-fired unit in this operation and the output model of the power system in the last operation; Based on the output model of the power system in this operation, the reliability index of the power system in this operation is determined, wherein the reliability index at least includes the probability of power shortage.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that Also includes: Based on the base load demand of the power system, determining the base load operation number of coal-fired units that meet the base load demand; In the power system, coal-fired units are put into operation one by one starting from 1, and the number of coal-fired units put into operation each time is 1; When the total number of coal-fired units in operation of the power system is greater than the base load operation number, the coal-fired units in operation of the power system are determined to be peak-shaving units.

3. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The power system's demand rate for the transfer between the various output states of the coal-fired units put into operation this time is: ； The non-demand rate of the power system for the transfer between the various output states of the coal-fired units put into operation this time is: ； in, ; ; ; in, Indicates that the power system The first coal-fired unit put into operation The output state is transferred to The demand rate of each output state, Indicates The first coal-fired unit put into operation Output status The steady-state probability at time Indicates that the power system After the first commissioning, The output size under each output state, Indicates that the power system After the first commissioning, The output size under each output state, Indicates that the power system The load of the moment; in, Indicates that the power system The first coal-fired unit put into operation The output state is transferred to The non-demand rate of each output state, Indicates The jth output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation is The steady-state probability at time in, Indicates that the power system The output after the first commissioning is Indicates The first coal-fired unit put into operation The output size of each output state, Indicates The first coal-fired unit put into operation The output size of each output state.

4. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that: Based on the output load of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time, the demand rate and the non-demand rate of the transfer between the corresponding states are respectively corrected, and the calculation formula for the transfer rate between the various output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time is obtained as follows: ； ； ； ； in, Indicates The first coal-fired unit put into operation The output state is transferred to The transfer rate of the output state, Indicates that the power system The first coal-fired unit put into operation The output state is transferred to The demand rate of each output state, Indicates The first coal-fired unit put into operation Output state to The climbing time of each output state, Indicates The first coal-fired unit put into operation The output size of each output state, Indicates The first coal-fired unit put into operation The output size of each output state, Indicates the rate of load change; in, Indicates The first coal-fired unit put into operation The output state is transferred to The transfer rate of each output state, Indicates that the power system The first coal-fired unit put into operation The output state is transferred to The non-demand rate of each output state, Indicates The first coal-fired unit put into operation Output state to The landslide time of each output state.

5. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The step of determining the steady-state probability of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time based on the transfer rate between each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time comprises: Determining a state transfer matrix of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time based on the transfer rates between various output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time; Based on the product of the state transfer matrix of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time and the steady-state probability variables of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time, and the restriction conditions of the steady-state probability variables of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time, a corresponding state transfer equation is constructed; The state transfer equation is solved to obtain the steady-state probability of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time.

6. The method according to claim 5, characterized in that The state transfer matrix A is: in, , , , , and Indicates that the power system The demand rate of the coal-fired unit put into operation for the first time to transfer from the first output state to the second output state, wherein the first output state represents the output state at the sorting position corresponding to the left value in the brackets of the corresponding symbol, and the second output state represents the output state at the sorting position corresponding to the right value in the brackets of the corresponding symbol; in, , , , , and Indicates that the power system The non-demand rate of the coal-fired unit put into operation for the second time, which is transferred from the third output state to the fourth output state, wherein the third output state represents the output state at the sorting position corresponding to the left value in the brackets of the corresponding symbol, and the fourth output state represents the output state at the sorting position corresponding to the right value in the brackets of the corresponding symbol; in, , , , , , , , , , , and Indicates The ramp time from the fifth output state to the sixth output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation for the second time, wherein the fifth output state represents the output state at the sorting position corresponding to the starting value of the subscript numerical range in the corresponding symbol, and the sixth output state represents the output state at the sorting position corresponding to the ending value of the subscript numerical range in the corresponding symbol; in, Indicates Repair rate of coal-fired units put into operation for the first time, Indicates The first coal-fired unit to be put into operation is The failure rate of each output state, Indicates the total number of output states.

7. The method according to claim 5, characterized in that The state transfer equation is: ； in, Indicates The first coal-fired unit put into operation The steady-state probability variable of the output state, Denotes the state transfer matrix.

8. A power system production simulation device considering the peak load characteristics of coal-fired units, characterized in that: include: A demand rate determination module, in the case where the coal-fired unit put into operation this time of the power system is a peak-shaving unit, determines the demand rate and non-demand rate of the power system for the transfer between various output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time based on the power shortage probability of the power system in the last operation; A transfer rate determination module, for respectively correcting the demand rate and the non-demand rate for transfers between corresponding states based on the output loads of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time, to obtain the transfer rate for transfers between each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time; A steady-state probability determination module, used to determine the steady-state probability of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time based on the transfer rate between each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time; A first model determination module is used to determine the output model of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time based on the steady-state probability of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time; A second model determination module is used to determine the output model of the power system in this operation based on the output model of the coal-fired unit in this operation and the output model of the power system in the last operation; The reliability index determination module is used to determine the reliability index of the power system in this operation based on the output model of the power system in this operation, wherein the reliability index at least includes the probability of power shortage.

9. A power system production simulation system considering the peak load characteristics of coal-fired units, comprising: at least one processor; as well as a memory communicatively connected to the at least one processor; wherein, The memory stores instructions that can be executed by the at least one processor, and the instructions are executed by the at least one processor to enable the at least one processor to perform the method according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

10. A non-transitory computer-readable storage medium storing computer instructions, wherein: The computer instructions are used to cause the computer to execute the method according to any one of claims 1-7.

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