Power system production simulation method and system considering the peak shaving characteristics of coal-fired units

Abstract

The present invention provides a power system production simulation method and system considering the peak shaving characteristics of coal-fired units. The implementation scheme is as follows: when a peak shaving unit is put into operation each time, according to the probability of power shortage of the system in the previous operation, the demand rate and non-demand rate for the transfer between the respective output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time are determined for the system. Thus, and by using the output loads of the respective output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time, the demand rate and non-demand rate for the transfer between the corresponding states are respectively corrected to obtain the transfer rate for the transfer between the respective output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time. Furthermore, the steady-state probabilities of the respective output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time are accurately determined. Also, based on this accurate steady-state probability, the output model of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time and the output model of the system in this operation can be accurately determined. Thus, the reliability index of the system after the peak shaving unit put into operation this time is accurately obtained.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of electric power, and in particular, to a production simulation method and system for an electric power system considering the peak shaving characteristics of coal-fired units. Background Art

[0002] The stochastic production simulation of an electric power system is an important tool for power system generation planning and unit operation plan formulation. This method can calculate the output of each unit under different operation modes and can be used for research considering only the output characteristics of generating units and the system load curve. The stochastic production simulation of a new power system can be divided into a simulation method and an analytical method.

[0003] Among them, the simulation method is mainly the Monte Carlo method, which simulates the system state by statistically analyzing the system fault frequency. However, the simulation method has a large computational amount, a slow convergence speed, and insufficient calculation accuracy. The analytical method can construct a clear and simple mathematical model and has a lower calculation cost compared with the Monte Carlo simulation method, such as the equivalent energy function method, sequence convolution operation, etc.

[0004] When considering the output of generating units, most existing stochastic production simulation methods adopt a two-state or three-state model. Under the background of the large-scale access of renewable energy nowadays, coal-fired units undertake peak shaving tasks and often need to quickly respond to load demands to reduce output or quickly increase the load. The simple two-state model and three-state model often cannot reflect the peak shaving characteristics of the units. Summary of the Invention

[0005] The present invention provides a production simulation method, device, system, and medium for an electric power system considering the peak shaving characteristics of coal-fired units, which can solve at least one of the above technical problems.

[0006] According to one aspect of the present invention, a production simulation method for an electric power system considering the peak shaving characteristics of coal-fired units is provided, including:

[0007] When the coal-fired units put into operation in the current electric power system are peak shaving units, based on the loss-of-power probability of the electric power system in the previous operation, determine the demand rate and non-demand rate for the transfer between the output states of the coal-fired units put into operation in the current system;

[0008] Based on the output load of each output state of the coal-fired units put into operation in the current system, respectively correct the demand rate and non-demand rate for the transfer between the corresponding states to obtain the transfer rate for the transfer between the output states of the coal-fired units put into operation in the current system;

[0009] Based on the transfer rate for the transfer between the output states of the coal-fired units put into operation in the current system, determine the steady-state probability of each output state of the coal-fired units put into operation in the current system;

[0010] Determine the output model of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time based on the steady-state probabilities of the various output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time;

[0011] Determine the output model of the power system put into operation this time based on the output model of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time and the output model of the power system put into operation last time;

[0012] Determine the reliability index of the power system put into operation this time based on the output model of the power system put into operation this time, where the reliability index at least includes the probability of power shortage.

[0013] According to another aspect of the present invention, there is provided a power system production simulation device considering the peak shaving characteristics of coal-fired units, including:

[0014] A demand rate determination module, when the coal-fired unit put into operation this time in the power system is a peak shaving unit, determine the demand rate and non-demand rate for the transfer between the various output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time by the power system based on the probability of power shortage of the power system put into operation last time;

[0015] A transfer rate determination module, which is used to correct the demand rate and the non-demand rate for the transfer between the corresponding states respectively based on the output load of the various output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time, to obtain the transfer rate for the transfer between the various output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time;

[0016] A steady-state probability determination module, which is used to determine the steady-state probabilities of the various output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time based on the transfer rates for the transfer between the various output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time;

[0017] A first model determination module, which is used to determine the output model of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time based on the steady-state probabilities of the various output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time;

[0018] A second model determination module, which is used to determine the output model of the power system put into operation this time based on the output model of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time and the output model of the power system put into operation last time;

[0019] A reliability index determination module, which is used to determine the reliability index of the power system put into operation this time based on the output model of the power system put into operation this time, where the reliability index at least includes the probability of power shortage.

[0020] Adopting the technical solution of the present invention, when starting the peak shaving unit each time, according to the probability of power shortage of the system in the previous start-up, determine the demand rate and non-demand rate for the transfer between the output states of the coal-fired unit to be started up in this time for the system. Thus, and by using the output loads of the output states of the coal-fired unit to be started up in this time, respectively correct the demand rate and non-demand rate for the transfer between the corresponding states, so as to obtain the transfer rate for the transfer between the output states of the coal-fired unit to be started up in this time. Furthermore, the steady-state probability of each output state of the coal-fired unit to be started up in this time can be accurately determined, and based on this accurate steady-state probability, the output model of the coal-fired unit to be started up in this time and the output model of the system in this start-up can be accurately determined. Thus, after starting the peak shaving unit in this time, the reliability index of the system can be accurately obtained. In this way, based on these reliability indexes, accurate support can be provided for the start-up strategy of the power system.

[0021] According to the influence of different peak shaving states and the time series characteristics of renewable energy on stochastic production simulation, conduct reliability analysis of the power system under different states, and at the same time establish a clear and efficient mathematical model to improve the simulation rate.

[0022] It should be understood that the content described in this part is not intended to identify the key or important features of the embodiments of the present invention, nor is it used to limit the scope of the present invention. Other features of the present invention will become easily understood through the following description. Brief Description of the Drawings

[0023] The drawings are used to better understand the present solution and do not constitute a limitation to the present invention. Among them:

[0024] Figure 1 is a flowchart of a power system production simulation method considering the peak shaving characteristics of coal-fired units according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0025] Figure 2 is a schematic diagram of the state switching of a coal-fired unit according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0026] Figure 3 is a schematic diagram of the state switching of each coal-fired unit in a power system according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0027] Figure 4 is a schematic diagram of the state switching of each coal-fired unit in a power system according to another embodiment of the present invention;

[0028] Figure 5 is a structural block diagram of a power system production simulation device considering the peak shaving characteristics of coal-fired units according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0029] Figure 6 is a block diagram of an electronic device for implementing the method according to an embodiment of the present invention. Detailed Embodiments

[0030] The following describes exemplary embodiments of the present invention with reference to the accompanying drawings. Various details of the embodiments of the present invention are included to facilitate understanding, and they should be considered merely exemplary. Therefore, those of ordinary skill in the art should recognize that various changes and modifications can be made to the embodiments described herein without departing from the scope of the present invention. Similarly, descriptions of well-known functions and structures are omitted in the following description for clarity and conciseness.

[0031] Figure 1 is a flowchart of a power system production simulation method considering the peak shaving characteristics of coal-fired units according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0032] As Figure 1 shown, the power system production simulation method considering the peak shaving characteristics of coal-fired units may include:

[0033] S110, when the coal-fired units put into operation in the power system this time are peak shaving units, based on the probability of power shortage in the power system during the previous operation, determine the demand rate and non-demand rate for the transfer between the output states of the coal-fired units put into operation this time in the power system;

[0034] S120, based on the output load of each output state of the coal-fired units put into operation this time, respectively correct the demand rate and non-demand rate for the transfer between the corresponding states to obtain the transfer rate for the transfer between the output states of the coal-fired units put into operation this time;

[0035] S130, based on the transfer rate for the transfer between the output states of the coal-fired units put into operation this time, determine the steady-state probability of each output state of the coal-fired units put into operation this time;

[0036] S140, based on the steady-state probability of each output state of the coal-fired units put into operation this time, determine the output model of the coal-fired units put into operation this time;

[0037] S150, based on the output model of the coal-fired units put into operation this time and the output model of the power system during the previous operation, determine the output model of the power system during this operation;

[0038] S160, based on the output model of the power system during this operation, determine the reliability index of the power system during this operation, where the reliability index at least includes the probability of power shortage.

[0039] It can be understood that the above steps S110 to S160 are the process of a power system production simulation.

[0040] According to the above embodiments, when starting up the peaking unit each time, based on the probability of insufficient system power in the previous startup, determine the demand rate and non-demand rate for the transfer between various output states of the coal-fired unit to be started up this time in the system. Thus, and by using the output loads of various output states of the coal-fired unit to be started up this time, respectively correct the demand rate and non-demand rate for the transfer between corresponding states, to obtain the transfer rate for the transfer between various output states of the coal-fired unit to be started up this time. Furthermore, the steady-state probability of various output states of the coal-fired unit to be started up this time can be accurately determined, and thus, based on this accurate steady-state probability, the output model of the coal-fired unit to be started up this time and the output model of the system in this startup can be accurately determined. Thus, after starting up the peaking unit this time, the reliability index of the system can be accurately obtained. In this way, based on these reliability indices, accurate support can be provided for the startup strategy of the power system.

[0041] In one embodiment, the above may further include: determining the number of base-load coal-fired units put into operation to meet the basic load demand of the power system; starting up coal-fired units one by one from 1 in the power system and the number of coal-fired units put into operation each time is 1; when the total number of coal-fired units already put into operation in the power system is greater than the number of base-load units put into operation, determine that the coal-fired unit to be put into operation this time in the power system is a peaking unit.

[0042] Exemplarily, when the total number of coal-fired units already put into operation in the power system is less than or equal to the number of base-load units put into operation, determine that the coal-fired unit to be put into operation this time in the power system is a base-load unit.

[0043] It can be understood that the base-load unit is a coal-fired unit put into operation to meet the basic load demand of the power system. The peaking unit is a coal-fired unit put into operation to meet the peaking load demand after meeting the basic load demand.

[0044] Exemplarily, the number of base-load units put into operation can be determined by the following constraints:

[0045] ;

[0046] wherein, is the lowest-level load demand of the power system, is the second-lowest-level load demand of the power system, is the rated output of the th generating unit in the power system, is the number of base-load units put into operation.

[0047] Exemplarily, when the total number of coal-fired units already put into operation in the power system is less than or equal to the number of base-load units put into operation, the production simulation process of the power system is as follows:

[0048] 1. Use the following formula to determine the Output model of the coal-fired unit put into operation for the first time:

[0049] ;

[0050] Among them, represents the two-state output model of the coal-fired unit put into operation for the th time. It can be as shown in Figure 2 , including the forced outage state and the rated operation state. represents the forced outage rate of the two-state output model. represents the th time the rated output of the coal-fired unit put into operation.

[0051] 2. Use the following formula to successively put into operation the base-load coal-fired units in the order of the commissioning of the coal-fired units, and determine the output model of the power system for each commissioning, specifically as follows:

[0052] ;

[0053] Among them, represents the output model of the power system after the th coal-fired unit is put into operation. represents the two-state output model of the th coal-fired unit put into operation. represents the steady-state probability of the th output state of the power system after the th coal-fired unit is put into operation. represents the output magnitude of the th output state of the power system after the th coal-fired unit is put into operation. represents the joint operation of each output model.

[0054] 3. Use the following formula to calculate the reliability indices based on the output model of the power system after the th coal-fired unit is put into operation, including the loss of load probability, expected value of loss of load, and expected value of generated energy, specifically as follows:

[0055] ;

[0056] ;

[0057] ;

[0058] Among them, represents the loss of load probability of the power system at the th commissioning at time , that is, the power system at the The probability that the coal-fired unit fails to meet the load demand due to insufficient power supply capacity after its first commissioning, which represents the likelihood that the system cannot provide sufficient electricity; At the moment of ,

[0059] , ,

[0059] Denote the expected value of power shortage of the power system at the th commissioning at the moment of , that is, the expected value of the total power shortage caused by the coal-fired unit of the th commissioning failing to meet the load demand after its commissioning at the moment of . It measures the power supply gap of the power system at a specific time; At the moment of , ,

[0060] , , Denote the expected value of power generation of the power system at the

[0060] th commissioning at the moment of , that is, the expected value of power generation considering its possible states and corresponding probabilities after the coal-fired unit of the th commissioning is put into operation at the moment of . It measures its contribution to the system; At the moment of , , ,

[0061] , , Denote the load of the power system at the moment of .

[0061] It can be understood that in the above steps S150 and S160, the output model and reliability index during the peak shaving process can be calculated according to the above second and third steps.

[0062]

[0063] According to the above embodiments, the commissioning and production simulation of coal-fired units can be carried out under the base load state, and also under the peak shaving state, so as to obtain accurate reliability indexes of the power system.

[0064]

[0065] In one embodiment, when commissioning a peak shaving unit each time, the demand rate for the transfer between the output states of the coal-fired unit commissioned this time by the power system can be calculated according to the following formula, specifically:

[0065] ;

[0066] When commissioning a peak shaving unit each time, the non-demand rate for the transfer between the output states of the coal-fired unit commissioned this time by the power system can be calculated according to the following formula, specifically:

[0067] ;

[0068] Wherein, ; ; ;

[0069] Among them, represents the demand rate at which the power system transfers from the th output state of the coal-fired generating unit put into operation for the th time to the th output state, represents the steady-state probability of the th output state of the coal-fired generating unit put into operation for the th time at the moment, represents the output magnitude of the power system in the th output state after the th coal-fired generating unit is put into operation, represents the output magnitude of the power system in the th output state after the th coal-fired generating unit is put into operation, represents;

[0070] Among them, represents the non-demand rate at which the power system transfers from the th output state of the coal-fired generating unit put into operation for the th time to the th output state, represents the steady-state probability of the th output state of the coal-fired generating unit put into operation for the th time at the

[0071] Among them, represents the output magnitude of the power system after the th coal-fired generating unit is put into operation, represents the th output state of the coal-fired generating unit put into operation for the th time, represents the th output state of the coal-fired generating unit put into operation for the th time.

[0072] According to the above embodiments, when the peaking unit is put into operation each time, the demand rate and non-demand rate for the transfer between different output states can be accurately calculated.

[0073] In some embodiments, based on the output loads of the respective output states of the coal-fired generating unit put into operation this time, the demand rate and non-demand rate for the transfer between the corresponding states are respectively corrected, and the calculation formula for the transfer rate for the transfer between the respective output states of the coal-fired generating unit put into operation this time is:

[0074] ; ;

[0075] ; ;

[0076] Among them, represents the transition rate from the th output state to the th output state of the th coal-fired unit put into operation, represents the demand rate for the th coal-fired unit put into operation to transfer from the th output state to the th output state, represents the th coal-fired unit put into operation from the th output state to the th output state of the ramp-up time, represents the th output of the th output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation, represents the th output of the th output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation, represents the variable load rate;

[0077] Among them, represents the th coal-fired unit put into operation from the th output state to the th output state of the transition rate, represents the th coal-fired unit put into operation from the th output state to the th output state of the non-demand rate, represents the th coal-fired unit put into operation from the th output state to the th output state of the landslide time.

[0078] According to the above embodiments, based on the output loads of the respective output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time, the demand rate and non-demand rate for the transfer between the corresponding states are respectively corrected, and the transfer rate for the transfer between the respective output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time can be accurately obtained.

[0079] In one embodiment, determining the steady-state probabilities of the various output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time based on the transition rates between the various output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time includes: determining the state transition matrix of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time based on the transition rates between the various output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time; constructing a corresponding state transition equation based on the product of the state transition matrix of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time and the steady-state probability variables of the various output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time, as well as the constraint conditions of the steady-state probability variables of the various output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time; and solving the state transition equation to obtain the steady-state probabilities of the various output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time.

[0080] According to the above embodiment, the steady-state probabilities of the various output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time can be accurately calculated, facilitating the subsequent accurate calculation of the reliability index of the power system.

[0081] In one embodiment, the state transition matrix A is:

[0082]

[0083] Wherein, 、 、 、 、 and represent the demand rate of the power system for the coal-fired unit put into operation for the th time to transfer from the first output state to the second output state, where the first output state represents the output state at the sorting position corresponding to the left value within the corresponding symbol in brackets, and the second output state represents the output state at the sorting position corresponding to the right value within the corresponding symbol in brackets. For example, for the symbol , the first output state is the 1st output state, and the second output state is the th output state.

[0084] Wherein, 、 、 、 、 and represent the non-demand rate of the power system for the coal-fired unit put into operation for the th time to transfer from the third output state to the fourth output state, where the third output state represents the output state at the sorting position corresponding to the left value within the corresponding symbol in brackets, and the fourth output state represents the output state at the sorting position corresponding to the right value within the corresponding symbol in brackets. For example, for the symbol , the third output state is the nth output state, and the fourth output state is the jth output state.

[0085] Among them, 、 、 、 、 、 、 、 、 、 、 and represent the ramp-up time of the coal-fired unit from the fifth output state to the sixth output state during the -th startup. Among them, the fifth output state represents the output state at the sorting position corresponding to the starting value of the subscript numerical range in the corresponding symbol, and the sixth output state represents the output state at the sorting position corresponding to the ending value of the subscript numerical range in the corresponding symbol. For example, for the symbol , the fifth output state is the n-th output state, and the sixth output state is the j-th output state.

[0086] Among them, represents the repair rate of the coal-fired unit during the -th startup, represents the failure rate of the coal-fired unit at the -th startup in the -rd output state, represents the total number of output states.

[0087] As shown in Figure 3 and Figure 4 , it shows the process of changing the model output state. As shown in Figure 3 , for the unit model that responds to the load demand of the power system, the present invention uses a multi-state model to determine the load-carrying position, that is, to reflect the characteristics of the unit under different output states during the peak shaving process, and the unit operates for peak shaving above the base load. As shown in Figure 4 , for the unit model that meets the short-term load demand during the load peak period, the present invention uses a multi-state model to determine the load-carrying position, and the unit starts and stops quickly during the peak load period.

[0088] Exemplarily, the calculation formula for the repair rate is as follows:

[0089] ;

[0090] Among them,

[0091] Exemplarily, the calculation formula for the failure rate is as follows:

[0092] ;

[0093] ;

[0093] Among them, It is shown that It is shown that It is shown that It is shown that

[0094] In one embodiment, the state transition equation is as follows:

[0095] ;

[0096] wherein represents the steady-state probability variable of the th output state of the th coal-fired unit put into operation, represents the state transition matrix, represents the total number of output states.

[0097] In one embodiment, based on the steady-state probabilities of the respective output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time, to determine the output model of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time, the following formula can be used for calculation:

[0098] ;

[0099] wherein represents the output model of the th coal-fired unit put into operation at time t, represents the steady-state probability of the th output state of the th coal-fired unit put into operation at time t, the th output state of the th coal-fired unit put into operation at time t, represents the total number of output states of the th coal-fired unit put into operation.

[0100] In one embodiment, the constraint conditions of the output model of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time can be as follows:

[0101] ;

[0102] wherein represents the output model of the th coal-fired unit put into operation at time t - 1, represents the variable load rate of the th coal-fired unit put into operation, represents the variable load time of the th coal-fired unit put into operation, represents the output model of the th coal-fired unit put into operation at time t.

[0103] In one embodiment, the reliability index of the power system after the th commissioning of the coal-fired unit can be calculated according to the following formula, specifically as follows:

[0104] ;

[0105] ;

[0106] ;

[0107] wherein, represents the wind power accommodation space of the power system at time t, represents the wind curtailment rate of the power system at time t, represents the expected value of wind curtailment electricity of the power system at time t, represents the th loading rate of the coal-fired unit at time t during commissioning, represents the probability of the minimum technical output of the th coal-fired unit during commissioning, represents the th minimum technical output of the coal-fired unit during commissioning.

[0108] In one embodiment, the final reliability index of the power system is as follows:

[0109] ;

[0110] ;

[0111] ;

[0112] ;

[0113] wherein, represents the probability of power shortage of the power system, represents the expected value of power shortage of the power system, represents the wind curtailment rate of the power system, represents the expected value of wind curtailment electricity of the power system.

[0114] Figure 5 is the structural block diagram of the power system production simulation device considering the peak shaving characteristics of coal-fired units in an embodiment of the present invention.

[0115] As Figure 5 shown, the power system production simulation device considering the peak shaving characteristics of coal-fired units includes:

[0116] A demand rate determination module 510, when the coal-fired unit put into operation this time in the power system is a peak shaving unit, determines the demand rate and non-demand rate for the transfer between each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time in the power system based on the power shortage probability of the power system in the previous operation.

[0117] A transfer rate determination module 520, which is used to correct the demand rate and the non-demand rate for the transfer between corresponding states respectively based on the output load of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time, so as to obtain the transfer rate for the transfer between each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time.

[0118] A steady-state probability determination module 530, which is used to determine the steady-state probability of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time based on the transfer rate for the transfer between each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time.

[0119] A first model determination module 540, which is used to determine the output model of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time based on the steady-state probability of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time.

[0120] A second model determination module 550, which is used to determine the output model of the power system in this operation based on the output model of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time and the output model of the power system in the previous operation.

[0121] A reliability index determination module 560, which is used to determine the reliability index of the power system in this operation based on the output model of the power system in this operation, where the reliability index at least includes the power shortage probability.

[0122] In one implementation manner, the above device may further include:

[0123] A number determination module, which is used to determine the number of base load coal-fired units put into operation that meet the basic load demand based on the basic load demand of the power system.

[0124] A unit put into operation module, which is used to successively put into operation coal-fired units in the power system starting from 1, and the number of coal-fired units put into operation each time is 1.

[0125] A peak shaving unit determination module, which is used to determine that the coal-fired unit put into operation this time in the power system is a peak shaving unit when the total number of coal-fired units already put into operation in the power system is greater than the number of base load units put into operation.

[0126] In one implementation manner, the demand rate for the transfer between each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time in the power system is:

[0127] ;

[0128] The non - demand rate for the transfer between each output state of the coal - fired unit put into operation this time in the power system is:

[0129] ;

[0130] where, ; ; ;

[0131] where, represents the demand rate of the power system for the coal - fired unit put into operation for the th time, from the rd output state to the th output state, represents the steady - state probability of the th output state of the coal - fired unit put into operation at the th moment, represents the output magnitude of the power system in the th output state after the th commissioning, th output state, represents the output magnitude of the power system in the th output state after the th commissioning, represents the load of the power system at the th moment;

[0132] where, represents the non - demand rate of the power system for the coal - fired unit put into operation for the th time, from the th output state to the th output state, represents the steady - state probability of the th output state of the coal - fired unit put into operation at the th moment;

[0133] where, represents the output magnitude of the power system after the th commissioning, represents the output magnitude of the th output state of the coal - fired unit put into operation for the th time, represents the output magnitude of the th output state of the coal - fired unit put into operation for the th time.

[0134] In one embodiment, the output load based on the respective output states of the currently commissioned coal-fired unit is used to correct the demand rate and the non-demand rate for the transfer between the corresponding states, and the calculation formula for the transfer rate of the currently commissioned coal-fired unit for the transfer between the respective output states is:

[0135] ; ;

[0136] ; ;

[0137] where, represents the transfer rate of the th currently commissioned coal-fired unit from the th output state to the th output state, represents the demand rate of the power system for the th currently commissioned coal-fired unit from the th output state to the th output state, represents the ramp-up time of the th currently commissioned coal-fired unit from the th output state to the th output state, represents the output magnitude of the th currently commissioned coal-fired unit at the th output state, represents the output magnitude of the th currently commissioned coal-fired unit at the th output state, represents the variable load rate;

[0138] where, represents the transfer rate of the th currently commissioned coal-fired unit from the th output state to the th output state, represents the non-demand rate of the power system for the th currently commissioned coal-fired unit from the th output state to the th output state, represents the th currently commissioned coal-fired unit from the th output state to the th output state of the landslide time.

[0139] In one embodiment, the steady-state probability determination module 530 includes:

[0140] A matrix determination unit, configured to determine a state transition matrix of the coal-fired generating unit put into operation this time based on the transition rates between the various output states of the coal-fired generating unit put into operation this time;

[0141] A transition equation determination module, configured to construct a corresponding state transition equation based on the product of the state transition matrix of the coal-fired generating unit put into operation this time and the steady-state probability variables of the various output states of the coal-fired generating unit put into operation this time, and the constraint conditions of the steady-state probability variables of the various output states of the coal-fired generating unit put into operation this time;

[0142] An equation solving module, configured to solve the state transition equation to obtain the steady-state probabilities of the various output states of the coal-fired generating unit put into operation this time.

[0143] In one implementation manner, the state transition matrix A is:

[0144]

[0145] Wherein, , , , , and represent the demand rate of the power system for the coal-fired generating unit put into operation for the th time to transfer from the first output state to the second output state, wherein the first output state represents the output state at the sorting position corresponding to the left numerical value in the corresponding symbol in brackets, and the second output state represents the output state at the sorting position corresponding to the right numerical value in the corresponding symbol in brackets;

[0146] Wherein, , , , , and represent the non-demand rate of the power system for the coal-fired generating unit put into operation for the th time to transfer from the third output state to the fourth output state, wherein the third output state represents the output state at the sorting position corresponding to the left numerical value in the corresponding symbol in brackets, and the fourth output state represents the output state at the sorting position corresponding to the right numerical value in the corresponding symbol in brackets;

[0147] Wherein, , , , , , , , , , , and represent the ramp-up time of the th coal-fired unit from the fifth output state to the sixth output state, where the fifth output state represents the output state at the sorting position corresponding to the starting value of the subscript value range in the corresponding symbol, and the sixth output state represents the output state at the sorting position corresponding to the ending value of the subscript value range in the corresponding symbol;

[0148] Among them, represents the repair rate of the th coal-fired unit put into operation, represents the th coal-fired unit put into operation at the th output state, represents the total number of output states.

[0149] In one embodiment, the state transition equation is:

[0150] ;

[0151] Among them, represents the steady-state probability variable of the th coal-fired unit put into operation at the th output state, represents the state transition matrix, represents the total number of output states.

[0152] For the specific functions and examples of each module and sub-module of the system according to the embodiments of the present invention, reference can be made to the relevant descriptions of the corresponding steps in the above method embodiments, which will not be elaborated here.

[0153] In the technical solution of the present invention, the acquisition, storage, and application of the user's personal information involved all comply with the provisions of relevant laws and regulations and do not violate public order and good customs.

[0154] According to the embodiments of the present invention, the present invention also provides a system and a readable storage medium.

[0155] Figure 6FIG. shows a schematic block diagram of an exemplary electronic device 800 that can be used to implement an embodiment of the present invention. The electronic device is intended to represent various forms of digital computers, such as, laptop computers, desktop computers, workstations, personal digital assistants, servers, blade servers, mainframe computers, and other suitable computers. The electronic device can also represent various forms of mobile devices, such as, personal digital assistants, cellular phones, smart phones, wearable devices, and other similar computing devices. The components shown herein, their connections and relationships, and their functions are only examples and are not intended to limit the implementation of the present invention described and / or claimed herein.

[0156] As Figure 6 shown, the device 800 includes a computing unit 801 that can perform various appropriate actions and processes according to a computer program stored in a read-only memory (ROM) 802 or a computer program loaded from a storage unit 808 into a random access memory (RAM) 803. In the RAM 803, various programs and data required for the operation of the device 800 can also be stored. The computing unit 801, the ROM 802, and the RAM 803 are connected to each other via a bus 804. An input / output (I / O) interface 805 is also connected to the bus 804.

[0157] A plurality of components in the device 800 are connected to the I / O interface 805, including: an input unit 806, such as a keyboard, a mouse, etc.; an output unit 807, such as various types of displays, speakers, etc.; a storage unit 808, such as a magnetic disk, an optical disk, etc.; and a communication unit 809, such as a network card, a modem, a wireless communication transceiver, etc. The communication unit 809 allows the device 800 to exchange information / data with other devices via a computer network such as the Internet and / or various telecommunication networks.

[0158] The computing unit 801 can be various general-purpose and / or special-purpose processing components with processing and computing capabilities. Some examples of the computing unit 801 include, but are not limited to, a central processing unit (CPU), a graphics processing unit (GPU), various dedicated artificial intelligence (AI) computing chips, various computing units running machine learning model algorithms, a digital signal processor (DSP), and any suitable processor, controller, microcontroller, etc. The computing unit 801 executes the various methods and processes described above, such as the power system production simulation method considering the peak shaving characteristics of coal-fired units. For example, in some embodiments, the power system production simulation method considering the peak shaving characteristics of coal-fired units can be implemented as a computer software program tangibly embodied in a machine-readable medium, such as the storage unit 808. In some embodiments, part or all of the computer program can be loaded and / or installed onto the device 800 via the ROM 802 and / or the communication unit 809. When the computer program is loaded into the RAM 803 and executed by the computing unit 801, one or more steps of the power system production simulation method considering the peak shaving characteristics of coal-fired units described above can be executed. Alternatively, in other embodiments, the computing unit 801 can be configured to execute the power system production simulation method considering the peak shaving characteristics of coal-fired units in any other suitable manner (e.g., by means of firmware).

[0159] Various embodiments of the systems and techniques described above in this document can be implemented in digital electronic circuitry, integrated circuit systems, field-programmable gate arrays (FPGA), application-specific integrated circuits (ASIC), application-specific standard products (ASSP), systems-on-a-chip (SOC), complex programmable logic devices (CPLD), computer hardware, firmware, software, and / or combinations thereof. These various embodiments can include: being implemented in one or more computer programs that can be executed and / or interpreted on a programmable system including at least one programmable processor, which can be a special-purpose or general-purpose programmable processor that can receive data and instructions from a storage system, at least one input device, and at least one output device, and transmit the data and instructions to the storage system, the at least one input device, and the at least one output device.

[0160] The program code for implementing the methods of the present invention can be written in any combination of one or more programming languages. These program codes can be provided to the processor or controller of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, or other programmable data processing devices, such that when the program codes are executed by the processor or controller, the functions / operations specified in the flowcharts and / or block diagrams are implemented. The program codes can be executed entirely on the machine, partially on the machine, as an independent software package partially on the machine and partially on a remote machine, or entirely on a remote machine or server.

[0161] In the context of the present invention, a machine-readable medium can be a tangible medium that can contain or store a program for use by or in connection with an instruction execution system, apparatus, or device. The machine-readable medium can be a machine-readable signal medium or a machine-readable storage medium. The machine-readable medium can include, but is not limited to, electronic, magnetic, optical, electromagnetic, infrared, or semiconductor systems, apparatus, or devices, or any suitable combination of the foregoing. More specific examples of the machine-readable storage medium would include an electrical connection based on one or more wires, a portable computer disk, a hard disk, a random access memory (RAM), a read-only memory (ROM), an erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM or Flash memory), an optical fiber, a portable compact disc read-only memory (CD-ROM), an optical storage device, a magnetic storage device, or any suitable combination of the foregoing.

[0162] To provide for interaction with a user, the systems and techniques described herein can be implemented on a computer having: a display device (e.g., a CRT (cathode ray tube) or LCD (liquid crystal display) monitor) for displaying information to the user; and a keyboard and a pointing device (e.g., a mouse or a trackball) by which the user can provide input to the computer. Other kinds of devices can also be used to provide for interaction with the user; for example, feedback provided to the user can be any form of sensory feedback (e.g., visual feedback, auditory feedback, or tactile feedback); and input from the user can be received in any form (including acoustic input, voice input, or tactile input).

[0163] The systems and techniques described herein can be implemented in a computing system that includes back-end components (e.g., as a data server), or a computing system that includes middleware components (e.g., an application server), or a computing system that includes front-end components (e.g., a user computer having a graphical user interface or a web browser through which the user can interact with an implementation of the systems and techniques described herein), or a computing system that includes any combination of such back-end components, middleware components, or front-end components. The components of the system can be interconnected by any form or medium of digital data communication (e.g., a communication network). Examples of communication networks include: a local area network (LAN), a wide area network (WAN), and the Internet.

[0164] A computer system may include a client and a server. The client and the server are generally far from each other and usually interact through a communication network. The client-server relationship is generated by computer programs running on respective computers and having a client-server relationship with each other. The server may be a cloud server, a server of a distributed system, or a server combined with a blockchain.

[0165] It should be understood that various forms of the processes shown above can be used, with steps reordered, added, or deleted. For example, the steps recited in the present invention can be executed in parallel, sequentially, or in a different order, as long as the desired results of the technical solutions disclosed in the present invention can be achieved, and this is not limited herein.

[0166] The above specific embodiments do not constitute a limitation on the protection scope of the present invention. Those skilled in the art should understand that various modifications, combinations, sub-combinations, and substitutions can be made according to design requirements and other factors. Any modifications, equivalent substitutions, and improvements made within the principles of the present invention shall be included within the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for simulating power system production considering the peak load characteristics of coal-fired units, characterized in that: include: In the case where the coal-fired unit put into operation this time in the power system is a peak-shaving unit, based on the probability of power shortage of the power system in the last operation, determining the demand rate and non-demand rate of the power system for the transfer between various output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time; Based on the output load of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time, respectively correct the demand rate and the non-demand rate of the transfer between corresponding states to obtain the transfer rate of the transfer between each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time; Determining the steady-state probability of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time based on the transfer rate between each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time; Determining the output model of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time based on the steady-state probability of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time; Determine the output model of the power system in this operation based on the output model of the coal-fired unit in this operation and the output model of the power system in the last operation; Based on the output model of the power system in this operation, the reliability index of the power system in this operation is determined, wherein the reliability index at least includes the probability of power shortage.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that Also includes: Based on the base load demand of the power system, determining the base load operation number of coal-fired units that meet the base load demand; In the power system, coal-fired units are put into operation one by one starting from 1, and the number of coal-fired units put into operation each time is 1; When the total number of coal-fired units in operation of the power system is greater than the base load operation number, the coal-fired units in operation of the power system are determined to be peak-shaving units.

3. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The power system's demand rate for the transfer between the various output states of the coal-fired units put into operation this time is: ； The non-demand rate of the power system for the transfer between the various output states of the coal-fired units put into operation this time is: ； in, ; ; ; in, Indicates that the power system The first coal-fired unit put into operation The output state is transferred to The demand rate of each output state, Indicates The first coal-fired unit put into operation Output status The steady-state probability at time Indicates that the power system After the first commissioning, The output size under each output state, Indicates that the power system After the first commissioning, The output size under each output state, Indicates that the power system The load of the moment; in, Indicates that the power system The first coal-fired unit put into operation The output state is transferred to The non-demand rate of each output state, Indicates The jth output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation is The steady-state probability at time in, Indicates that the power system The output after the first commissioning is Indicates The first coal-fired unit put into operation The output size of each output state, Indicates The first coal-fired unit put into operation The output size of each output state.

4. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that: Based on the output load of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time, the demand rate and the non-demand rate of the transfer between the corresponding states are respectively corrected, and the calculation formula for the transfer rate between the various output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time is obtained as follows: ； ； ； ； in, Indicates The first coal-fired unit put into operation The output state is transferred to The transfer rate of the output state, Indicates that the power system The first coal-fired unit put into operation The output state is transferred to The demand rate of each output state, Indicates The first coal-fired unit put into operation Output state to The climbing time of each output state, Indicates The first coal-fired unit put into operation The output size of each output state, Indicates The first coal-fired unit put into operation The output size of each output state, Indicates the rate of load change; in, Indicates The first coal-fired unit put into operation The output state is transferred to The transfer rate of the output state, Indicates that the power system The first coal-fired unit put into operation The output state is transferred to The non-demand rate of each output state, Indicates The first coal-fired unit put into operation Output state to The landslide time of each output state.

5. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that The step of determining the steady-state probability of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time based on the transfer rate between each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time comprises: Determining a state transfer matrix of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time based on the transfer rates between various output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time; Based on the product of the state transfer matrix of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time and the steady-state probability variables of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time, and the restriction conditions of the steady-state probability variables of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time, a corresponding state transfer equation is constructed; The state transfer equation is solved to obtain the steady-state probability of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time.

6. The method according to claim 5, characterized in that The state transfer matrix A is: in, , , , , and Indicates that the power system The demand rate of the coal-fired unit put into operation for the first time to transfer from the first output state to the second output state, wherein the first output state represents the output state at the sorting position corresponding to the left value in the brackets of the corresponding symbol, and the second output state represents the output state at the sorting position corresponding to the right value in the brackets of the corresponding symbol; in, , , , , and Indicates that the power system The non-demand rate of the coal-fired unit put into operation for the second time, which is transferred from the third output state to the fourth output state, wherein the third output state represents the output state at the sorting position corresponding to the left value in the brackets of the corresponding symbol, and the fourth output state represents the output state at the sorting position corresponding to the right value in the brackets of the corresponding symbol; in, , , , , , , , , , , and Indicates The ramp time from the fifth output state to the sixth output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation for the second time, wherein the fifth output state represents the output state at the sorting position corresponding to the starting value of the subscript numerical range in the corresponding symbol, and the sixth output state represents the output state at the sorting position corresponding to the ending value of the subscript numerical range in the corresponding symbol; in, Indicates Repair rate of coal-fired units put into operation for the first time, Indicates The first coal-fired unit to be put into operation is The failure rate of each output state, Indicates the total number of output states.

7. The method according to claim 5, characterized in that The state transfer equation is: ； in, Indicates The first coal-fired unit put into operation The steady-state probability variable of the output state, represents the state transfer matrix, Indicates the total number of output states.

8. A power system production simulation device considering the peak load characteristics of coal-fired units, characterized in that: include: A demand rate determination module, in the case where the coal-fired unit put into operation this time of the power system is a peak-shaving unit, determines the demand rate and non-demand rate of the power system for the transfer between various output states of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time based on the power shortage probability of the power system in the last operation; A transfer rate determination module, for respectively correcting the demand rate and the non-demand rate for transfers between corresponding states based on the output loads of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time, to obtain the transfer rate for transfers between each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time; A steady-state probability determination module, used to determine the steady-state probability of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time based on the transfer rate between each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time; A first model determination module is used to determine the output model of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time based on the steady-state probability of each output state of the coal-fired unit put into operation this time; A second model determination module is used to determine the output model of the power system in this operation based on the output model of the coal-fired unit in this operation and the output model of the power system in the last operation; The reliability index determination module is used to determine the reliability index of the power system in this operation based on the output model of the power system in this operation, wherein the reliability index at least includes the probability of power shortage.

9. A power system production simulation system considering the peak load characteristics of coal-fired units, comprising: at least one processor; as well as a memory communicatively connected to the at least one processor; wherein, The memory stores instructions that can be executed by the at least one processor, and the instructions are executed by the at least one processor to enable the at least one processor to perform the method according to any one of claims 1 to 7.

10. A non-transitory computer-readable storage medium storing computer instructions, wherein: The computer instructions are used to cause the computer to execute the method according to any one of claims 1-7.

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