A LCOE cash flow discounting verification method for offshore wind power projects

Abstract

The present invention provides a LCOE cash flow discounting verification method for offshore wind power projects, including: estimating the expected power generation and expected project income of the wind power project within a specified time period according to the scale characteristics of the offshore wind power facilities and the environmental characteristics of the current season, analyzing the debt information of the wind power project, determining the discount rate of the wind power project, calculating the present value of the income of the expected project income, determining the effective range of the income present value according to the change of the power generation efficiency of the wind power project, when the income present value exceeds the effective range, performing year-on-year analysis and month-on-month analysis on the debt information, screening the cash excess tasks of the wind power project, generating and displaying the cash difference report of the wind power project, which can help decision makers evaluate the economic feasibility of different power generation projects, compare the cost-effectiveness of different energy technologies, and provide an important basis for investment decisions.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of cash flow discount analysis and processing, and in particular to a LCOE cash flow discounting method verification method for an offshore wind power project. Background Art

[0002] The investment benefit evaluation of modern offshore wind farms is mainly calculated by the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) cash flow discounting method, which usually predicts all cash inflows and outflows throughout the life cycle of the project and uses an appropriate discount rate to discount these cash flows to the current point in time, thereby calculating the total cost and total power generation of the project, and finally obtaining the average cost per unit of electricity. This method takes into account factors such as the initial investment, operation and maintenance costs, policy subsidies, tax incentives, and environmental impact of the project, and can comprehensively evaluate the economic and feasibility of the project.

[0003] Although LCOE (levelized cost of electricity) is an important indicator for evaluating the economic feasibility of power projects, there are still some technical drawbacks and limitations in practical applications, mainly including the following problems:

[0004] 1. Uncertainty of assumptions

[0005] Discount rate selection: The choice of discount rate has a significant impact on the calculation results of LCOE. Different discount rates will lead to different LCOE values, and the determination of discount rates is often subjective and uncertain.

[0006] Lifecycle assumptions: The expected lifecycle of the project is an important assumption. Different types of power generation technologies have different lifecycles, and actual operation may change due to various factors.

[0007] Forecasts of maintenance and operating costs: Forecasts of these costs are often based on historical data and experience, but future technological advances and market changes may cause actual costs to deviate significantly from the forecasted values.

[0008] 2. Impact of technological progress

[0009] Technological innovation: Technological progress may lead to significant changes in future costs and efficiency, while LCOE calculations are usually based on current technology levels. If future technological progress exceeds expectations, the LCOE forecast may be inaccurate.

[0010] Introduction of new technologies: The introduction of new power generation technologies (such as energy storage technology and smart grid technology) may change the operation mode of the power system and affect the calculation results of LCOE.

[0011] 3. Market and policy uncertainty

[0012] Fluctuations in electricity prices: The electricity prices used in LCOE calculations are usually based on current or expected market prices, but electricity prices may fluctuate due to factors such as changes in market supply and demand and policy adjustments.

[0013] Uncertainty of policy support: Government subsidies, tax incentives and other policies have a significant impact on LCOE, but these policies may change, causing the predicted LCOE value to be inconsistent with the actual situation.

[0014] Although LCOE is a useful tool, its practical application requires caution regarding its assumptions and technical limitations.

[0015] Therefore, the present invention provides a LCOE cash flow discounting method for offshore wind power projects. Summary of the invention

[0016] The present invention provides a LCOE cash flow discounting method for offshore wind power projects, which can help decision makers evaluate the economic feasibility of different power generation projects, compare the cost-effectiveness of different energy technologies, and provide an important basis for investment decisions.

[0017] The present invention provides a LCOE cash flow discounting method verification method for an offshore wind power project, comprising:

[0018] Step 1: Estimate the expected power generation of the wind power project within a specified time period based on the scale characteristics of the offshore wind power facility and the environmental characteristics of the current season, and determine the expected project revenue of the wind power project;

[0019] Step 2: Obtain the cash investment and net cash outflow for the construction of the offshore wind power facility, analyze the debt information of the wind power project, and determine the discount rate of the wind power project;

[0020] Step 3: Calculate the present value of the estimated project income according to the discount rate, and determine the effective range of the present value of the income according to the change in the power generation efficiency of the wind power project;

[0021] Step 4: When the present value of the income exceeds the valid range, the debt information is analyzed year-on-year and month-on-month respectively, the cash excess task of the wind power project is screened, and a cash difference report of the wind power project is generated and displayed.

[0022] In one practicable manner,

[0023] The step 1 comprises:

[0024] Step 11: Obtain project construction information of the wind power project, determine a number of offshore wind power facilities included in the wind power project according to the project construction information, and respectively obtain facility data corresponding to each of the offshore wind power facilities, establish a facility distribution map of the wind power project, determine the connection relationship between different offshore wind power facilities, and generate scale characteristics corresponding to each of the offshore wind power facilities;

[0025] Step 12: Obtain seasonal climate data of the area where the offshore wind power facility is located, determine the environmental characteristics of the current season, establish a seasonal power generation model for the wind power project according to the scale characteristics and the environmental characteristics, run the seasonal power generation model, obtain the corresponding working information of each offshore wind power facility in the current season, and use the working information to estimate the expected power generation of the wind power project in a specified time period;

[0026] Step 13: Analyze the total LCOE cost of the wind power project according to the working information, establish the electricity sales standard of the wind power project in combination with the expected power generation, and determine the expected project income of the wind power project using the electricity sales standard and the expected power generation.

[0027] In one practicable manner,

[0028] The step 2 comprises:

[0029] Step 21: Obtain the project construction information of the wind power project, determine the construction cash investment corresponding to each of the offshore wind power facilities, obtain the maintenance record of the wind power project, determine the maintenance investment corresponding to each of the offshore wind power facilities, obtain the operation record of the wind power project, determine the power generation cost corresponding to each of the offshore wind power facilities, and generate the net cash outflow corresponding to each of the offshore risk facilities;

[0030] Step 22: Determine the historical project income of the wind power project according to the operation record, establish a capital flow timeline of the wind power project according to the historical project income, the construction cash investment and the net cash outflow, obtain a number of capital flow points included in the capital flow timeline, and calculate the flow amount and the remaining amount corresponding to each capital flow point respectively;

[0031] Step 23: Track each of the liquid funds respectively, determine the source / destination of each of the liquid funds, create corresponding inflow tags / outflow tags and mark them in the corresponding capital flow points, and filter the inflow tags to determine the cash expenditure trend of the wind power project;

[0032] Step 24: Analyze the debt information of the wind power project in different time periods based on the liquidity amount and the remaining amount corresponding to each of the capital flow points, analyze the balance of payments characteristics of the debt information based on the cash expenditure trend, determine the risk premium of the wind power project, and generate the discount rate of the wind power project.

[0033] In one practicable manner,

[0034] The step 3 comprises:

[0035] Step 31: Discounting the estimated project income according to the discount rate to obtain the present value of the income of the wind power project;

[0036] Step 32: Obtain facility optimization records of the wind power project, determine the power generation efficiency of the wind power project at different stages, and obtain changes in the power generation efficiency of the wind power project;

[0037] Step 33: Determine the revenue change trend of the wind power project based on the change in power generation efficiency, and determine the effective range of the present value of the revenue in combination with the historical revenue of the wind power project.

[0038] In one practicable manner,

[0039] The step 4 comprises:

[0040] Step 41: when the present value of the income exceeds the limited range, generating debt details corresponding to each month of the wind power project according to the debt information, performing year-on-year analysis on each of the debt details to obtain the long-term debt trend corresponding to each month, and performing month-on-month analysis on each of the debt details to obtain the short-term debt trend corresponding to each month;

[0041] Step 42: The long-term debt trends are merged in order of months to obtain a long-term debt chart of the wind power project, and the chart information corresponding to each short-term debt trend is searched in the long-term debt chart to construct a valid debt trend corresponding to each month, and the trend similarities and differences between each short-term debt trend and the corresponding valid debt trend are obtained;

[0042] Step 43: Obtain a target month with a trend outlier, screen a number of target cash tasks corresponding to the target month, perform fund verification on each of the target cash tasks, obtain fund flow information corresponding to each of the target cash tasks, and screen the excess cash tasks of the wind power project according to the fund flow information;

[0043] Step 44: Analyze the excess amount corresponding to each of the cash excess tasks and the excess subtasks corresponding to each of the cash excess tasks according to the cash flow information, count the excess amount corresponding to each of the excess subtasks, determine the cash difference report of the wind power project and display it.

[0044] In one practicable manner,

[0045] Also includes:

[0046] Building a virtual facility for the wind power project according to the facility data corresponding to each of the offshore wind power facilities;

[0047] spatially arranging the virtual facilities according to the facility distribution map of the wind power project to generate a virtual facility distribution conceptual model of the wind power project;

[0048] Running the virtual facility distribution conceptual model to obtain the work efficiency corresponding to each of the offshore wind power facilities;

[0049] Analyzing the power generation efficiency of the wind power project according to the facility attributes corresponding to each of the offshore wind power facilities;

[0050] When the power generation efficiency is qualified, generating a scale feature corresponding to each of the offshore wind power facilities according to the direct connection relationship between the different offshore wind power facilities;

[0051] Otherwise, a project defect report is generated and displayed.

[0052] In one practicable manner,

[0053] The process of generating the discount rate for the wind power project includes:

[0054] Obtaining the floating interest rate corresponding to each time period in the big data, and constructing a discount curve for the wind power project;

[0055] Determine the corresponding income value of the wind power project in different time periods according to the revenue and expenditure balance characteristics of the wind power project, analyze the interest rate impact value corresponding to each time period according to the discount curve, and establish an equivalent exchange factor between adjacent time periods;

[0056] Using the equivalent exchange factor to perform equivalent conversion on the discount curve to obtain the converted income value corresponding to each time period;

[0057] Obtaining actual income values ​​corresponding to the wind power project in different time periods, and combining corresponding converted income values ​​to determine the risk premium of the wind power project;

[0058] The discount rate of the wind power project is determined according to the risk premium and the discount curve.

[0059] In one practicable manner,

[0060] The process of analyzing the total LCOE cost of the wind power project based on the work information includes:

[0061] Analyze the capital cost, operating cost and fuel cost corresponding to each of the offshore wind power facilities according to the work information, and construct the facility LCOE cost corresponding to the offshore wind power facility;

[0062] According to the operating hours corresponding to each of the offshore wind power facilities, the accumulated LCOE cost of the corresponding offshore wind power facilities is determined, and the total LCOE cost of the wind power project is established in combination with the facility LCOE cost corresponding to each of the offshore wind power facilities.

[0063] In one practicable manner,

[0064] Also includes:

[0065] When the predicted power generation is inconsistent with the historical power generation, obtaining the target historical power generation with the smallest difference from the predicted power generation, and obtaining the target power sales standard and target project income corresponding to the target historical power generation;

[0066] Analyzing the original estimated project revenue of the wind power project according to the total LCOE cost and the target electricity sales standard;

[0067] When the original estimated project income is lower than the target project income, constructing an adjustment parameter according to the difference in electricity between the estimated power generation and the target historical power generation;

[0068] The target electricity sales standard is corrected using the adjustment parameters to obtain the electricity sales standard of the wind power project.

[0069] In one practicable manner,

[0070] Also includes:

[0071] Each of the excess cash tasks is traced back to its source, the person in charge of each of the excess cash tasks is determined, and a responsibility report is generated and displayed.

[0072] The achievable beneficial effects of the above technical solution are: in order to facilitate decision makers to understand the benefits of wind power projects, the expected power generation and expected project income of wind power projects are analyzed by estimation, and then the debt information of wind power projects is analyzed in combination with the cash investment and net cash outflow for the construction of offshore wind power facilities, and the discount rate of the wind power project is determined. The present value of the expected project income is further analyzed based on the discount rate, and whether the present value of income is valid is judged by analyzing the changes in the power generation efficiency of the wind power project. Abnormal cash excess tasks are further screened through year-on-year and month-on-month analysis methods, and finally a cash difference report is generated. Decision makers can determine the reasons for the abnormal funds based on the report, and can also look forward to the future development of wind power projects based on the report and the present value of income, thereby improving the long-term competitiveness of wind power projects and the decision-making success rate of decision makers.

[0073] Other features and advantages of the present invention will be described in the following description, and partly become apparent from the description, or understood by practicing the present invention. The purpose and other advantages of the present invention can be realized and obtained by the structures particularly pointed out in the written description and the accompanying drawings.

[0074] The technical solution of the present invention is further described in detail below through the accompanying drawings and embodiments. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0075] The accompanying drawings are used to provide a further understanding of the present invention and constitute a part of the specification. Together with the embodiments of the present invention, they are used to explain the present invention and do not constitute a limitation of the present invention. In the accompanying drawings:

[0076] Figure 1 A schematic diagram of the workflow of a method for verifying LCOE cash flow discounting method for an offshore wind power project in an embodiment of the present invention;

[0077] Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of the workflow of step 2 of a method for verifying LCOE cash flow discounting for offshore wind power projects in an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0078] The preferred embodiments of the present invention are described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. It should be understood that the preferred embodiments described herein are only used to illustrate and explain the present invention, and are not used to limit the present invention.

[0079] Example 1

[0080] This embodiment provides a method for verifying the LCOE cash flow discounting method for an offshore wind power project. Figure 1 As shown, including:

[0081] Step 1: Estimate the expected power generation of the wind power project within a specified time period based on the scale characteristics of the offshore wind power facility and the environmental characteristics of the current season, and determine the expected project revenue of the wind power project;

[0082] Step 2: Obtain the cash investment and net cash outflow for the construction of the offshore wind power facility, analyze the debt information of the wind power project, and determine the discount rate of the wind power project;

[0083] Step 3: Calculate the present value of the estimated project income according to the discount rate, and determine the effective range of the present value of the income according to the change in the power generation efficiency of the wind power project;

[0084] Step 4: When the present value of the income exceeds the valid range, the debt information is analyzed year-on-year and month-on-month respectively, the cash excess task of the wind power project is screened, and a cash difference report of the wind power project is generated and displayed.

[0085] In this example, the specified time period is 3 months, specifically: March-May, June-August, September-November, December-February;

[0086] In this example, construction cash investment represents the funds invested in constructing the offshore wind power facility;

[0087] In this example, the net cash outflow represents the maintenance funds for the offshore wind facility;

[0088] In this example, the present value of revenue represents the result of discounting the estimated project revenue to its present value;

[0089] In this example, the year-on-year analysis means analyzing the debt situation between the current month and the same month last year, and the month-on-month analysis means analyzing the debt situation between the current month and the previous month.

[0090] The working principle and beneficial effects of the above technical solution are as follows: In order to facilitate decision makers to understand the benefits of wind power projects, the expected power generation and expected project income of wind power projects are analyzed by estimation, and then the debt information of wind power projects is analyzed in combination with the cash investment and net cash outflow for the construction of offshore wind power facilities, and the discount rate of the wind power project is determined. The present value of the expected project income is further analyzed based on the discount rate, and the validity of the income present value is judged by analyzing the changes in the power generation efficiency of the wind power project. Abnormal cash excess tasks are further screened through year-on-year and month-on-month analysis methods, and finally a cash difference report is generated. Decision makers can determine the reasons for the abnormal funds based on the report, and can also look forward to the future development of wind power projects based on the report and the present value of income, thereby improving the long-term competitiveness of wind power projects and the decision-making success rate of decision makers.

[0091] Example 2

[0092] On the basis of Example 1, the LCOE cash flow discounting method verification method for an offshore wind power project, step 1, comprises:

[0093] Step 11: Obtain project construction information of the wind power project, determine a number of offshore wind power facilities included in the wind power project according to the project construction information, and respectively obtain facility data corresponding to each of the offshore wind power facilities, establish a facility distribution map of the wind power project, determine the connection relationship between different offshore wind power facilities, and generate scale characteristics corresponding to each of the offshore wind power facilities;

[0094] Step 12: Obtain seasonal climate data of the area where the offshore wind power facility is located, determine the environmental characteristics of the current season, establish a seasonal power generation model for the wind power project according to the scale characteristics and the environmental characteristics, run the seasonal power generation model, obtain the corresponding working information of each offshore wind power facility in the current season, and use the working information to estimate the expected power generation of the wind power project in a specified time period;

[0095] Step 13: Analyze the total LCOE cost of the wind power project according to the working information, establish the electricity sales standard of the wind power project in combination with the expected power generation, and determine the expected project income of the wind power project using the electricity sales standard and the expected power generation.

[0096] In this example, the facility data represents the basic data of the offshore wind power facility and the data generated during operation;

[0097] In this example, the scale characteristics represent the characteristics presented by the scale of power generation of the offshore wind power installation;

[0098] In this example, the total LCOE cost represents the sum of the capital cost, operation and maintenance cost, and fuel cost of the wind power project;

[0099] In this example, the total LCOE cost affects the electricity sales standard, which represents the price per kilowatt-hour and the total number of kilowatt-hours that can be sold.

[0100] The working principle and beneficial effects of the above technical solution are as follows: by determining the facility data corresponding to each offshore wind power facility based on the project construction information of the wind power project, constructing a facility distribution map of the wind power project, and then further determining the scale characteristics corresponding to each offshore wind power facility based on the connection relationship between different facilities, and further constructing a seasonal power generation model for the wind power project based on the seasonal environmental characteristics of the seasonal climate in the area where the offshore wind power facilities are located, so as to determine the working information of the offshore wind power facilities by running the model, and quickly determine its expected power generation in this quarter, and quickly determine the total LCOE cost of the wind power project, determine the electricity sales standard for this quarter, and thus determine the expected project revenue for this quarter. In this way, not only can the expected revenue of the wind power project be quickly determined through model analysis, but the selling electricity price can also be adjusted according to the cost of the wind power project to achieve the purpose of balancing income and expenditure, increase the reasonable income of the wind power project, set a reasonable electricity price charging standard for this quarter, and increase sales.

[0101] Example 3

[0102] Based on Example 1, the LCOE cash flow discounting method for offshore wind power projects is as follows: Figure 2 As shown, the step 2 includes:

[0103] Step 21: Obtain the project construction information of the wind power project, determine the construction cash investment corresponding to each of the offshore wind power facilities, obtain the maintenance record of the wind power project, determine the maintenance investment corresponding to each of the offshore wind power facilities, obtain the operation record of the wind power project, determine the power generation cost corresponding to each of the offshore wind power facilities, and generate the net cash outflow corresponding to each of the offshore risk facilities;

[0104] Step 22: Determine the historical project income of the wind power project according to the operation record, establish a capital flow timeline of the wind power project according to the historical project income, the construction cash investment and the net cash outflow, obtain a number of capital flow points included in the capital flow timeline, and calculate the flow amount and the remaining amount corresponding to each capital flow point respectively;

[0105] Step 23: Track each of the liquid funds respectively, determine the source / destination of each of the liquid funds, create corresponding inflow tags / outflow tags and mark them in the corresponding capital flow points, and filter the inflow tags to determine the cash expenditure trend of the wind power project;

[0106] Step 24: Analyze the debt information of the wind power project in different time periods based on the liquidity amount and the remaining amount corresponding to each of the capital flow points, analyze the balance of payments characteristics of the debt information based on the cash expenditure trend, determine the risk premium of the wind power project, and generate the discount rate of the wind power project.

[0107] In this example, the capital flow timeline shows the capital inflow and outflow corresponding to the wind power project at different time points;

[0108] In this instance, the current amount represents income or expenditure;

[0109] In this example, the remaining amount represents the balance at that time;

[0110] In this example, when the funds show an incoming direction, an inflow label is added, and when the funds show an outflow direction, an outflow label is added;

[0111] In this example, the cash disbursement trend represents the statistical trend of cash disbursed by the wind power project at different times;

[0112] In this example, the risk premium represents the revenue generated by the risk assumed by the wind power project;

[0113] In this example, the discount rate represents the interest rate used to convert the estimated project revenues into present value.

[0114] The working principle and beneficial effects of the above technical solution: In order to better analyze the income situation of wind power projects and help decision makers analyze the rate of return of wind power projects, the capital flow timeline of wind power projects is established by analyzing the construction cash investment and net cash outflow of risk projects and historical project income. The capital flow situation of the wind power project can be clearly seen through the timeline, and several capital flow points contained therein are determined and each capital flow point is determined to track the working capital, and the expenditure cash trend of the wind power project is determined. At the same time, the many-to-one debt information of the wind power project in different time periods is determined. The cash expenditure trend and debt information are used to analyze the balance of payments characteristics of the wind power project, thereby determining the risk premium of the wind power project, and determining the discount rate of the wind power project based on the risk premium. In this way, the income and expenditure and amount flow of the wind power project can be analyzed in multiple dimensions, and the discount rate of the wind power project can be determined, which is convenient for subsequent present value conversion.

[0115] Example 4

[0116] On the basis of Example 1, the LCOE cash flow discounting method verification method for an offshore wind power project, the step 3 comprises:

[0117] Step 31: Discounting the estimated project income according to the discount rate to obtain the present value of the income of the wind power project;

[0118] Step 32: Obtain facility optimization records of the wind power project, determine the power generation efficiency of the wind power project at different stages, and obtain changes in the power generation efficiency of the wind power project;

[0119] Step 33: Determine the revenue change trend of the wind power project based on the change in power generation efficiency, and determine the effective range of the present value of the revenue in combination with the historical revenue of the wind power project.

[0120] In this example, the power generation efficiency change indicates the change in the power generation efficiency of the wind power project due to the optimization of the offshore wind power facilities of the wind power project;

[0121] In this example, the effective range represents the reasonable range of the present value of income under the influence of power generation efficiency.

[0122] The working principle and beneficial effects of the above technical solution are as follows: by converting the estimated project income into the present value of income according to the discount rate and analyzing the effectiveness of the present value of income, the income of the project can be rationally analyzed to determine whether its income is reasonable.

[0123] Example 5

[0124] On the basis of Example 1, the LCOE cash flow discounting method verification method for an offshore wind power project, the step 4 comprises:

[0125] Step 41: when the present value of the income exceeds the limited range, generating debt details corresponding to each month of the wind power project according to the debt information, performing year-on-year analysis on each of the debt details to obtain the long-term debt trend corresponding to each month, and performing month-on-month analysis on each of the debt details to obtain the short-term debt trend corresponding to each month;

[0126] Step 42: The long-term debt trends are merged in order of months to obtain a long-term debt chart of the wind power project, and the chart information corresponding to each short-term debt trend is searched in the long-term debt chart to construct a valid debt trend corresponding to each month, and the trend similarities and differences between each short-term debt trend and the corresponding valid debt trend are obtained;

[0127] Step 43: Obtain a target month with a trend outlier, screen a number of target cash tasks corresponding to the target month, perform fund verification on each of the target cash tasks, obtain fund flow information corresponding to each of the target cash tasks, and screen the excess cash tasks of the wind power project according to the fund flow information;

[0128] Step 44: Analyze the excess amount corresponding to each of the cash excess tasks and the excess subtasks corresponding to each of the cash excess tasks according to the cash flow information, count the excess amount corresponding to each of the excess subtasks, determine the cash difference report of the wind power project and display it.

[0129] In this example, the long-term debt trend shows the change in debt within one year, and the short-term debt trend shows the change in debt within two months;

[0130] In this example, the Long-term Debt chart shows a detailed line chart and data table of debt for a wind power project within one year;

[0131] In this example, the effective debt trend represents the trend of reasonable debt generated based on the debt situation of each month;

[0132] In this example, the trend similarity points and trend difference points represent the similarities and differences between the short-term debt area and the effective debt trend, respectively;

[0133] In this example, the cash excess task refers to the task of spending cash in excess of the stipulated cash in the wind power project.

[0134] The working principle and beneficial effects of the above technical solution are as follows: In order to better determine the cash difference of the wind power project, when the present value of income is abnormal, the long-term debt trend and short-term debt trend of the wind power project are determined by performing year-on-year analysis and month-on-month analysis on the debt information, and then the long-term debt trend is further integrated to construct a long-term debt chart of the wind power project, and the chart information of the short-term debt trend is used to construct the effective debt trend of each month, thereby determining the trend similarities and trend differences contained in the short-term debt trend, and performing fund verification for the months containing trend differences, and determining the cash excess task of the wind power project by querying the cash flow, determining the excess subtask and excess amount corresponding to the cash excess task, and finally generating a cash difference report on the wind power project and displaying it. In this way, the cash flow of the wind power project can be comprehensively checked, that is, in the process of checking the amount, the cash flow will be repeatedly checked many times, reducing the phenomenon of unclear funds in the wind power project, and constructing a concise and clear cash flow and a highly targeted cash difference report, providing decision makers with a strong decision-making standard.

[0135] Example 6

[0136] Based on Example 2, the LCOE cash flow discounting method verification method for an offshore wind power project further includes:

[0137] Building a virtual facility for the wind power project according to the facility data corresponding to each of the offshore wind power facilities;

[0138] spatially arranging the virtual facilities according to the facility distribution map of the wind power project to generate a virtual facility distribution conceptual model of the wind power project;

[0139] Running the virtual facility distribution conceptual model to obtain the work efficiency corresponding to each of the offshore wind power facilities;

[0140] Analyzing the power generation efficiency of the wind power project according to the facility attributes corresponding to each of the offshore wind power facilities;

[0141] When the power generation efficiency is qualified, generating a scale feature corresponding to each of the offshore wind power facilities according to the direct connection relationship between the different offshore wind power facilities;

[0142] Otherwise, a project defect report is generated and displayed.

[0143] In this example, the qualified standard for power generation efficiency is: 55% and above.

[0144] The working principle and beneficial effects of the above technical solution: In order to ensure the working efficiency of wind power projects and avoid economic losses caused by facility failures, before constructing scale characteristics, virtual facilities are built according to the facility data of offshore wind power facilities, and further a conceptual model of facility distribution is constructed. The model is used to analyze the working efficiency corresponding to each offshore wind power facility, thereby deducing the power generation efficiency of the project. Only on the basis of qualified power generation efficiency can its scale characteristics be constructed. In this way, defects of offshore wind power facilities can be discovered in time, reminding decision makers to deal with related problems in a timely manner.

[0145] Example 7

[0146] On the basis of Example 3, the LCOE cash flow discounting method for offshore wind power projects, the process of generating the discount rate of the wind power project, includes:

[0147] Obtaining the floating interest rate corresponding to each time period in the big data, and constructing a discount curve for the wind power project;

[0148] Determine the corresponding income value of the wind power project in different time periods according to the revenue and expenditure balance characteristics of the wind power project, analyze the interest rate impact value corresponding to each time period according to the discount curve, and establish an equivalent exchange factor between adjacent time periods;

[0149] Using the equivalent exchange factor to perform equivalent conversion on the discount curve to obtain the converted income value corresponding to each time period;

[0150] Obtaining actual income values ​​corresponding to the wind power project in different time periods, and combining corresponding converted income values ​​to determine the risk premium of the wind power project;

[0151] The discount rate of the wind power project is determined according to the risk premium and the discount curve.

[0152] In this example, the equivalent swap factor represents the law of equivalent exchange of currencies between two consecutive months;

[0153] In this example, the discount curve represents a curve composed of discount rates corresponding to different time periods.

[0154] The working principle and beneficial effects of the above technical solution are as follows: Since the risk premium will directly affect the discount rate, the discount curve of the wind power project is analyzed by analyzing the floating interest rates in different time periods, and the equivalent exchange factors between different time periods are determined. The converted income of each time period is further determined, and the risk premium of the wind power project is determined by analyzing the difference between the actual income and the converted income in different time periods. Finally, the discount rate of the wind power project is determined. In this way, the most suitable discount rate for the wind power project can be obtained, which improves the accuracy of present value conversion.

[0155] Example 8

[0156] On the basis of Example 2, the LCOE cash flow discounting method for checking an offshore wind power project, the process of analyzing the total LCOE cost of the wind power project according to the working information, includes:

[0157] Analyze the capital cost, operating cost and fuel cost corresponding to each of the offshore wind power facilities according to the work information, and construct the facility LCOE cost corresponding to the offshore wind power facility;

[0158] According to the operating hours corresponding to each of the offshore wind power facilities, the accumulated LCOE cost of the corresponding offshore wind power facilities is determined, and the total LCOE cost of the wind power project is established in combination with the facility LCOE cost corresponding to each of the offshore wind power facilities.

[0159] The working principle and beneficial effects of the above technical solution are as follows: By analyzing the various costs of each offshore wind power facility, the total LCOE cost of the wind power project is determined, which can be used as a reference for subsequent electricity pricing.

[0160] Example 9

[0161] Based on Example 2, the LCOE cash flow discounting method verification method for an offshore wind power project further includes:

[0162] When the predicted power generation is inconsistent with the historical power generation, obtaining the target historical power generation with the smallest difference from the predicted power generation, and obtaining the target power sales standard and target project income corresponding to the target historical power generation;

[0163] Analyzing the original estimated project revenue of the wind power project according to the total LCOE cost and the target electricity sales standard;

[0164] When the original estimated project income is lower than the target project income, constructing an adjustment parameter according to the difference in electricity between the estimated power generation and the target historical power generation;

[0165] The target electricity sales standard is corrected using the adjustment parameters to obtain the electricity sales standard of the wind power project.

[0166] In this example, the period of historical power generation is 3 months.

[0167] The working principle and beneficial effects of the above technical solution: In order to reduce the changes in electricity sales standards and maintain the normal operation of wind power projects, the target sales standard of the target historical power generation close to the expected power generation is adjusted to obtain an electricity sales standard suitable for the current situation of the wind power project.

[0168] Example 10

[0169] Based on Example 1, the LCOE cash flow discounting method verification method for an offshore wind power project further includes:

[0170] Each of the excess cash tasks is traced back to its source, the person in charge of each of the excess cash tasks is determined, and a responsibility report is generated and displayed.

[0171] The working principle and beneficial effects of the above technical solution are: tracing the source of excess cash tasks, identifying their responsible persons, and providing a reference for decision makers in personnel changes.

[0172] Obviously, those skilled in the art can make various changes and modifications to the present invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention. Thus, if these modifications and variations of the present invention fall within the scope of the claims of the present invention and their equivalents, the present invention is also intended to include these modifications and variations.

Claims

1. A LCOE cash flow discounting method for offshore wind power projects, characterized in that: include: Step 1: Estimate the expected power generation of the wind power project within a specified time period based on the scale characteristics of the offshore wind power facility and the environmental characteristics of the current season, and determine the expected project revenue of the wind power project; Step 2: Obtain the cash investment and net cash outflow for the construction of the offshore wind power facility, analyze the debt information of the wind power project, and determine the discount rate of the wind power project; Step 3: Calculate the present value of the estimated project income according to the discount rate, and determine the effective range of the present value of the income according to the change in the power generation efficiency of the wind power project; Step 4: When the present value of the income exceeds the valid range, the debt information is analyzed year-on-year and month-on-month respectively, the cash excess task of the wind power project is screened, and a cash difference report of the wind power project is generated and displayed.

2. The LCOE cash flow discounting method for offshore wind power projects according to claim 1, characterized in that: The step 1 comprises: Step 11: Obtain project construction information of the wind power project, determine a number of offshore wind power facilities included in the wind power project according to the project construction information, and respectively obtain facility data corresponding to each of the offshore wind power facilities, establish a facility distribution map of the wind power project, determine the connection relationship between different offshore wind power facilities, and generate scale characteristics corresponding to each of the offshore wind power facilities; Step 12: Obtain seasonal climate data of the area where the offshore wind power facility is located, determine the environmental characteristics of the current season, establish a seasonal power generation model for the wind power project according to the scale characteristics and the environmental characteristics, run the seasonal power generation model, obtain the corresponding working information of each offshore wind power facility in the current season, and use the working information to estimate the expected power generation of the wind power project in a specified time period; Step 13: Analyze the total LCOE cost of the wind power project according to the working information, establish the electricity sales standard of the wind power project in combination with the expected power generation, and determine the expected project income of the wind power project using the electricity sales standard and the expected power generation.

3. The LCOE cash flow discounting method for offshore wind power projects according to claim 1, characterized in that: The step 2 comprises: Step 21: Obtain the project construction information of the wind power project, determine the construction cash investment corresponding to each of the offshore wind power facilities, obtain the maintenance record of the wind power project, determine the maintenance investment corresponding to each of the offshore wind power facilities, obtain the operation record of the wind power project, determine the power generation cost corresponding to each of the offshore wind power facilities, and generate the net cash outflow corresponding to each of the offshore risk facilities; Step 22: Determine the historical project income of the wind power project according to the operation record, establish a capital flow timeline of the wind power project according to the historical project income, the construction cash investment and the net cash outflow, obtain a number of capital flow points included in the capital flow timeline, and calculate the flow amount and the remaining amount corresponding to each capital flow point respectively; Step 23: Track each of the liquid funds respectively, determine the source / destination of each of the liquid funds, create corresponding inflow tags / outflow tags and mark them in the corresponding capital flow points, and filter the inflow tags to determine the cash expenditure trend of the wind power project; Step 24: Analyze the debt information of the wind power project in different time periods based on the liquidity amount and the remaining amount corresponding to each of the capital flow points, analyze the balance of payments characteristics of the debt information based on the cash expenditure trend, determine the risk premium of the wind power project, and generate the discount rate of the wind power project.

4. The LCOE cash flow discounting method for offshore wind power projects according to claim 1, characterized in that: The step 3 comprises: Step 31: Discounting the estimated project income according to the discount rate to obtain the present value of the income of the wind power project; Step 32: Obtain facility optimization records of the wind power project, determine the power generation efficiency of the wind power project at different stages, and obtain changes in the power generation efficiency of the wind power project; Step 33: Determine the revenue change trend of the wind power project based on the change in power generation efficiency, and determine the effective range of the present value of the revenue in combination with the historical revenue of the wind power project.

5. The LCOE cash flow discounting method for offshore wind power projects according to claim 1, characterized in that: The step 4 comprises: Step 41: when the present value of the income exceeds the limited range, generating debt details corresponding to each month of the wind power project according to the debt information, performing year-on-year analysis on each of the debt details to obtain the long-term debt trend corresponding to each month, and performing month-on-month analysis on each of the debt details to obtain the short-term debt trend corresponding to each month; Step 42: The long-term debt trends are merged in order of months to obtain a long-term debt chart of the wind power project, and the chart information corresponding to each short-term debt trend is searched in the long-term debt chart to construct a valid debt trend corresponding to each month, and the trend similarities and differences between each short-term debt trend and the corresponding valid debt trend are obtained; Step 43: Obtain a target month with a trend outlier, screen a number of target cash tasks corresponding to the target month, perform fund verification on each of the target cash tasks, obtain fund flow information corresponding to each of the target cash tasks, and screen the excess cash tasks of the wind power project according to the fund flow information; Step 44: Analyze the excess amount corresponding to each of the cash excess tasks and the excess subtasks corresponding to each of the cash excess tasks according to the cash flow information, count the excess amount corresponding to each of the excess subtasks, determine the cash difference report of the wind power project and display it.

6. A LCOE cash flow discounting method for offshore wind power projects as claimed in claim 2, characterized in that: Also includes: Building a virtual facility for the wind power project according to the facility data corresponding to each of the offshore wind power facilities; spatially arranging the virtual facilities according to the facility distribution map of the wind power project to generate a virtual facility distribution conceptual model of the wind power project; Running the virtual facility distribution conceptual model to obtain the work efficiency corresponding to each of the offshore wind power facilities; Analyzing the power generation efficiency of the wind power project according to the facility attributes corresponding to each of the offshore wind power facilities; When the power generation efficiency is qualified, generating a scale feature corresponding to each of the offshore wind power facilities according to the direct connection relationship between the different offshore wind power facilities; Otherwise, a project defect report is generated and displayed.

7. The LCOE cash flow discounting method for offshore wind power projects as claimed in claim 3, characterized in that: The process of generating the discount rate for the wind power project includes: Obtaining the floating interest rate corresponding to each time period in the big data, and constructing a discount curve for the wind power project; Determine the corresponding income value of the wind power project in different time periods according to the revenue and expenditure balance characteristics of the wind power project, analyze the interest rate impact value corresponding to each time period according to the discount curve, and establish an equivalent exchange factor between adjacent time periods; Using the equivalent exchange factor to perform equivalent conversion on the discount curve to obtain the converted income value corresponding to each time period; Obtaining actual income values ​​corresponding to the wind power project in different time periods, and combining corresponding converted income values ​​to determine the risk premium of the wind power project; The discount rate of the wind power project is determined according to the risk premium and the discount curve.

8. The LCOE cash flow discounting method for offshore wind power projects as claimed in claim 2, characterized in that: The process of analyzing the total LCOE cost of the wind power project based on the work information includes: Analyze the capital cost, operating cost and fuel cost corresponding to each of the offshore wind power facilities according to the work information, and construct the facility LCOE cost corresponding to the offshore wind power facility; According to the operating hours corresponding to each of the offshore wind power facilities, the accumulated LCOE cost of the corresponding offshore wind power facilities is determined, and the total LCOE cost of the wind power project is established in combination with the facility LCOE cost corresponding to each of the offshore wind power facilities.

9. The LCOE cash flow discounting method for offshore wind power projects as claimed in claim 2, characterized in that: Also includes: When the predicted power generation is inconsistent with the historical power generation, obtaining the target historical power generation with the smallest difference from the predicted power generation, and obtaining the target power sales standard and target project income corresponding to the target historical power generation; Analyzing the original estimated project revenue of the wind power project according to the total LCOE cost and the target electricity sales standard; When the original estimated project income is lower than the target project income, constructing an adjustment parameter according to the difference in electricity between the estimated power generation and the target historical power generation; The target electricity sales standard is corrected using the adjustment parameters to obtain the electricity sales standard of the wind power project.

10. The LCOE cash flow discounting method for offshore wind power projects according to claim 1, characterized in that: Also includes: Each of the excess cash tasks is traced back to its source, the person in charge of each of the excess cash tasks is determined, and a responsibility report is generated and displayed.

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