Orderly power utilization regulation and control method based on reliability measurement verification and correction

Abstract

The invention provides an orderly power utilization regulation and control method based on reliability measurement verification and correction. According to the method, through electric power and electric quantity balance analysis, power shortage early warning grade division and orderly power utilization index distribution, the orderly power utilization indexes of a main power grid are distributed among secondary power grids based on load characteristics. Meanwhile, on the basis of accurately evaluating the capacity of the controllable resource pool of the secondary power grid and the load regulation and control cost, an orderly power utilization basic scheme is formulated; the method comprises the following steps: providing a short-time-sequence multi-sampling scene construction technology for an orderly power utilization basic scheme, carrying out power grid virtual production analysis, and calculating indexes such as orderly power utilization load loss probability and orderly power utilization load loss power; based on the indexes, the orderly power utilization scheme is executed after the orderly power utilization scheme is verified and corrected.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of power system power consumption management, and in particular to an orderly power consumption control method for reliability measurement verification and correction. Background Art

[0002] Driven by the goal of "carbon peak and carbon neutrality", the construction of a new power system with new energy as the main body is accelerating. The installed capacity of new energy generators continues to rise, and the penetration rate continues to increase. However, the inherent intermittent and random nature of new energy leads to frequent power tight balance scenarios. Especially during the peak summer and winter, extreme climate and meteorological conditions such as "extreme heat and no wind", "no light at the late peak", and "continuous no wind and no light" can easily cause local and periodic power supply gaps, and the pressure to ensure supply is very severe. In order to solve this problem, the power supply department needs to adopt an effective orderly power control strategy. The orderly power strategy currently used generally shows insufficient adaptability to these uncertainties when facing the uncertainties brought about by the increasing penetration rate of new energy. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a more effective orderly power control method to cope with the contradiction between power supply and demand, guide and optimize power load, and ensure smooth and orderly power supply during the power tight balance period. Summary of the invention

[0003] In order to solve the above problems, the present invention provides an orderly power consumption control method based on reliability measurement verification and correction, comprising the following steps:

[0004] S1, calculate the power gap of the main grid through supply and demand power balance analysis, and determine the power shortage warning level of the main grid power tight balance scenario based on the calculated power gap of the main grid;

[0005] S2, calculate the orderly power consumption of the secondary power grid according to the orderly power consumption of the main power grid;

[0006] S3, compile an orderly power consumption plan for the secondary power grid according to the orderly power consumption of the secondary power grid;

[0007] S4, generating scenarios for uncertain elements of the secondary power grid to obtain short-time random samples, wherein the uncertain elements include power load and photovoltaic power generation power;

[0008] S5, verify the orderly power consumption plan of the secondary power grid according to the obtained short-time random samples. If the verification passes, the orderly power consumption plan of the secondary power grid is executed. If the verification fails, the orderly power consumption power of the main power grid in S2 is adjusted, and the orderly power consumption plan of the secondary power grid is recompiled until the orderly power consumption plan of the secondary power grid passes the verification.

[0009] Furthermore, the power shortage of the main power grid in S1 is the percentage of power shortage power to peak load;

[0010] Furthermore, the method for determining the power shortage warning level in the main power grid power tight balance scenario in S1 is as follows:

[0011] When 20%≤main grid power gap<30%, the power shortage warning level of the main grid power tight balance scenario is Level I;

[0012] When 10%≤main grid power gap<20%, the power shortage warning level of the main grid power tight balance scenario is Level II;

[0013] When 5%≤main grid power gap<10%, the power shortage warning level of the main grid power tight balance scenario is level III;

[0014] When the power gap of the main grid is less than 5%, the power shortage warning level of the main grid power tight balance scenario is Level IV.

[0015] Furthermore, the method for calculating the orderly power consumption of the secondary power grid in S2 is:

[0016]

[0017] Among them, P OCP,i (t) is the orderly power consumption of secondary grid i at time t, is the main grid sequence power consumption at time t, λ i is the ratio of the orderly power consumption of the secondary grid i to the orderly power consumption of the main grid;

[0018] where λ i The calculation method is

[0019]

[0020] Among them, p i T is the proportion of the total load capacity of the secondary grid i to the total load capacity of the main grid, p i I is the proportion of industrial load capacity of secondary grid i to industrial load capacity of main grid and p i H is the ratio of the dual-high load capacity of the secondary grid i to the dual-high load capacity of the main grid;

[0021] Among them, α T is the weight coefficient of the total load orderly power consumption. When the power shortage warning level of the main power grid power tight balance scenario is level I, α T =100%, when the power shortage warning level of the main power grid tight balance scenario is level IIα T =90%, when the power shortage warning level of the main power grid power tight balance scenario is level III α T=50%, when the power shortage warning level of the main power grid tight balance scenario is IV levelα T =20%;

[0022] α I is the weight coefficient of orderly power consumption of ordinary industrial and commercial loads. When the power shortage warning level of the main power grid power tight balance scenario is level I, α T =0%, when the power shortage warning level of the main power grid power tight balance scenario is level II α T =10%, when the power shortage warning level of the main power grid power tight balance scenario is level III α T =40%, when the power shortage warning level of the main power grid tight balance scenario is level IV α T =40%;

[0023] α H is the weight coefficient of orderly power consumption under dual high loads. When the power shortage warning level of the main grid power tight balance scenario is level I, α T =0%, when the power shortage warning level of the main power grid power tight balance scenario is level II α T =0%, when the power shortage warning level of the main power grid power tight balance scenario is level III α T =10%, when the power shortage warning level of the main power grid tight balance scenario is IV levelα T =40%.

[0024] Furthermore, the method for preparing the orderly power consumption plan of the secondary power grid in S3 is:

[0025] When P OCP,i (t) <P DR,i (t), P SHIFT,i (t) = 0, P AVERT,i (t) = 0, P RATION,i (t) = 0;

[0026] when When P SHIFT,i (t) = P OCP,i (t)-P DR,i (t), P AVERT,i (t) = 0, P RATION,i (t) = 0;

[0027] when hour,

[0028] P RATION,i (t) = 0;

[0029] When P OCP,i (t)≥P F,i (t), P RATION,i (t) = P OCP,i (t)-P F,i (t);

[0030] Among them, P OCP,i(t) is the orderly power consumption of secondary grid i at time t, P SHIFT,i (t) is the dynamic capacity of the flexibility resource pool of the secondary grid i at time t; P DR,i (t) Load demand response power of secondary grid i at time t, P SHIFT,i (t) is the peak shifting power, P AVERT,i (t) is the peak avoidance power, P RATION,i (t) is the power limit; is the permissible peak shifting capacity of the secondary grid i at time t, is the allowable peak avoidance capacity of secondary grid i at time t.

[0031] Furthermore, the method for generating a scenario for the power load in S4 to obtain a short-time random sample is:

[0032]

[0033] Among them, m is the serial number of the short-term power load sample, M is the number of short-term load samples, P load,m (t) is the power load value r corresponding to the tth period of the mth time series sample m,t is the error coefficient, r m,t is a continuous random variable that follows a normal distribution, P load,0 (t) is the power load forecast component corresponding to the tth period, P load,0 The calculation method of (t) is

[0034]

[0035] in, is the annual peak power load, P month is the percentage of monthly peak power load to annual peak power load, P hour (t) is the percentage of the peak power load in the tth period to the monthly peak power load, f month (t) is a function that returns the month of the t-th period.

[0036] Furthermore, the method for generating a scene for photovoltaic power generation in S4 to obtain a short-time random sample is:

[0037]

[0038] Among them, P PV,m(t) is the photovoltaic power value corresponding to the tth period of the mth short time series sample, For sunrise time, For sunset time, is the photovoltaic power during the sunshine period, where

[0039]

[0040] Among them, Γ is the Gamma function, α and β are the shape parameters of the Beta distribution, P PV (t) is the photovoltaic power generation value corresponding to the tth period, is the maximum value of photovoltaic power generation.

[0041] Furthermore, the method for verifying the orderly power consumption plan of the secondary power grid according to the obtained short-time random samples in S5 is:

[0042]

[0043] Among them, L OLP is the probability index of orderly power load loss, m is the sequence number of the sample in the multiple sampling scenario, M is the number of samples in the multiple sampling scenario, H is the number of hours contained in a single short time series sample in the short time series multiple sampling scenario, and H outage,m is the number of power outage hours contained in the mth short time series sample,

[0044]

[0045] Among them, E PLO is the orderly power load loss power index, m is the sequence number of the multiple sampling scenario sample, M is the number of multiple sampling scenario samples, H is the number of hours contained in a single short time series sample in the short time series multiple sampling scenario, P outage,m (h) is the unplanned power outage load power value in the tth hour of the mth short time series sample,

[0046] When L OLP <ε LOLP And E PLO <ε EPLO When the secondary power grid orderly power consumption plan passes the verification, otherwise the secondary power grid orderly power consumption plan fails to pass the verification.

[0047] Among them, ε LOLP is the risk threshold of the probability of orderly power load loss, ε EPLO It is the risk threshold of power loss of orderly power load.

[0048] Furthermore, the method for adjusting the orderly power consumption of the main power grid in S5 is to increase the orderly power consumption of the main power grid in steps of 5%.

[0049] The orderly power consumption control method based on reliability measurement verification and correction provided by the present invention analyzes the response characteristics of various types of flexible resources on the demand side and evaluates the system power and electricity balance state for power tight balance scenarios. When necessary, the orderly power consumption warning is initiated, orderly power consumption indicators and allocation plans are generated, and the reliability measurement is introduced into the verification and correction links of the orderly power consumption control strategy. The risk of unplanned load loss in the orderly power consumption plan is quantified and accurately evaluated. On this basis, the orderly power consumption control strategy is corrected and optimized, and the orderly power consumption control method is realized. Comprehensive trade-offs in reliability level and control cost are achieved. The application of the orderly power consumption control method provided by the present invention can guide users to optimize their power consumption behavior, alleviate seasonal, structural, time-period and regional power supply and demand contradictions, and reduce the risks of power rationing and line pulling; at the same time, the system reliability cost and load control cost are reasonably weighed, and the orderly power consumption plan is optimized through virtual production analysis, reliability measurement verification and correction, thereby improving the technical and economic comprehensive benefits of the orderly power consumption plan. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0050] The drawings in the specification, which constitute a part of this application, are used to provide a further understanding of the present invention. The illustrative embodiments of the present invention and their descriptions are used to explain the present invention and do not constitute improper limitations on the present invention.

[0051] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of the orderly power consumption control method based on reliability measurement verification and correction of the present invention;

[0052] Figure 2 It is a wiring diagram of an improved MRBTS 5-node system in an embodiment of the present invention;

[0053] Figure 3 Draw out hourly power supply and load curves in chronological order in an embodiment of the present invention;

[0054] Figure 4 Schematic diagram of orderly power consumption of secondary power grid 2 in an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0055] In order to deepen the understanding of the present invention, the present invention will be further described in detail below with reference to embodiments and drawings.

[0056] like Figure 1 As shown, this embodiment includes the following steps:

[0057] S1, calculate the power gap of the main grid through supply and demand power balance analysis, and determine the power shortage warning level of the main grid power tight balance scenario based on the calculated power gap of the main grid;

[0058] S2, calculate the orderly power consumption of the secondary power grid according to the orderly power consumption of the main power grid;

[0059] S3, compile an orderly power consumption plan for the secondary power grid according to the orderly power consumption of the secondary power grid;

[0060] S4, generating scenarios for uncertain elements of the secondary power grid to obtain short-time random samples, wherein the uncertain elements include power load and photovoltaic power generation power;

[0061] S5, verify the orderly power consumption plan of the secondary power grid according to the obtained short-time random samples. If the verification passes, the orderly power consumption plan of the secondary power grid is executed. If the verification fails, the orderly power consumption power of the main power grid in S2 is adjusted, and the orderly power consumption plan of the secondary power grid is recompiled until the orderly power consumption plan of the secondary power grid passes the verification.

[0062] The power shortage of the main grid in S1 is the percentage of power shortage to peak load;

[0063] The method for determining the power shortage warning level in the main power grid power tight balance scenario in S1 is as follows:

[0064] When 20%≤main grid power gap<30%, the power shortage warning level of the main grid power tight balance scenario is Level I;

[0065] When 10%≤main grid power gap<20%, the power shortage warning level of the main grid power tight balance scenario is Level II;

[0066] When 5%≤main grid power gap<10%, the power shortage warning level of the main grid power tight balance scenario is level III;

[0067] When the power gap of the main grid is less than 5%, the power shortage warning level of the main grid power tight balance scenario is Level IV.

[0068] The method for calculating the orderly power consumption of the secondary power grid in S2 is:

[0069]

[0070] Among them, P OCP,i (t) is the orderly power consumption of secondary grid i at time t, is the main grid sequence power consumption at time t, λ i is the ratio of the orderly power consumption of the secondary grid i to the orderly power consumption of the main grid;

[0071] where λ i The calculation method is

[0072]

[0073] Among them, p i Tis the proportion of the total load capacity of the secondary grid i to the total load capacity of the main grid, p i I is the proportion of industrial load capacity of secondary grid i to industrial load capacity of main grid and p i H is the ratio of the dual-high load capacity of the secondary grid i to the dual-high load capacity of the main grid;

[0074] Among them, α T is the weight coefficient of the total load orderly power consumption. When the power shortage warning level of the main power grid power tight balance scenario is level I, α T =100%, when the power shortage warning level of the main power grid tight balance scenario is level IIα T =90%, when the power shortage warning level of the main power grid power tight balance scenario is level III α T =50%, when the power shortage warning level of the main power grid tight balance scenario is IV levelα T =20%;

[0075] α I is the weight coefficient of orderly power consumption of ordinary industrial and commercial loads. When the power shortage warning level of the main power grid power tight balance scenario is level I, α T =0%, when the power shortage warning level of the main power grid power tight balance scenario is level II α T =10%, when the power shortage warning level of the main power grid power tight balance scenario is level III α T =40%, when the power shortage warning level of the main power grid tight balance scenario is level IV α T =40%;

[0076] α H is the weight coefficient of orderly power consumption under dual high loads. When the power shortage warning level of the main grid power tight balance scenario is level I, α T =0%, when the power shortage warning level of the main power grid power tight balance scenario is level II α T =0%, when the power shortage warning level of the main power grid power tight balance scenario is level III α T =10%, when the power shortage warning level of the main power grid tight balance scenario is IV levelα T =40%.

[0077] The method for compiling the orderly power consumption plan of the secondary power grid in S3 is as follows:

[0078] When P OCP,i (t) <P DR,i (t), P SHIFT,i (t) = 0, P AVERT,i (t) = 0, P RATION,i (t) = 0;

[0079] when When P SHIFT,i (t) = P OCP,i (t)-P DR,i (t), P AVERT,i (t) = 0, P RATION,i (t) = 0;

[0080] when hour,

[0081] P RATION,i (t) = 0;

[0082] When P OCP,i (t)≥P F,i (t), P RATION,i (t) = P OCP,i (t)-P F,i (t);

[0083] Among them, P OCP,i(t) is the orderly power consumption of secondary grid i at time t, P SHIFT,i (t) is the dynamic capacity of the flexibility resource pool of the secondary grid i at time t; P DR,i (t) Load demand response power of secondary grid i at time t, P SHIFT,i (t) is the peak shifting power, P AVERT,i (t) is the peak avoidance power, P RATION,i (t) is the power limit; is the permissible peak shifting capacity of the secondary grid i at time t, is the allowable peak avoidance capacity of secondary grid i at time t.

[0084] In S4, the method for generating scenarios for power loads and obtaining short-time series random samples is as follows:

[0085]

[0086] Among them, m is the serial number of the short-term power load sample, M is the number of short-term load samples, P load,m (t) is the power load value r corresponding to the tth period of the mth time series sample m,t is the error coefficient, r m,t is a continuous random variable that follows a normal distribution, P load,0 (t) is the power load forecast component corresponding to the tth period, P load,0 The calculation method of (t) is

[0087]

[0088] in, is the annual peak power load, P month is the percentage of monthly peak power load to annual peak power load, P hour (t) is the percentage of the peak power load in the tth period to the monthly peak power load, f month (t) is a function that returns the month of the t-th period.

[0089] In S4, the method for generating a scenario for photovoltaic power generation and obtaining a short-time random sample is as follows:

[0090]

[0091] Among them, P PV,m (t) is the photovoltaic power value corresponding to the tth period of the mth short time series sample, For sunrise time, For sunset time, is the photovoltaic power during the sunshine period, where

[0092]

[0093] Among them, Γ is the Gamma function, α and β are the shape parameters of the Beta distribution, P PV (t) is the photovoltaic power generation value corresponding to the tth period, is the maximum value of photovoltaic power generation.

[0094] The method for verifying the orderly power consumption plan of the secondary power grid according to the obtained short-time random samples in S5 is as follows:

[0095]

[0096] Among them, L OLP is the probability index of orderly power load loss, m is the sequence number of the sample in the multiple sampling scenario, M is the number of samples in the multiple sampling scenario, H is the number of hours contained in a single short time series sample in the short time series multiple sampling scenario, and H outage,m is the number of power outage hours contained in the mth short time series sample,

[0097]

[0098] Among them, E PLO is the orderly power load loss power index, m is the sequence number of the multiple sampling scenario sample, M is the number of multiple sampling scenario samples, H is the number of hours contained in a single short time series sample in the short time series multiple sampling scenario, P outage,m (h) is the unplanned power outage load power value in the tth hour of the mth short time series sample,

[0099] When L OLP <ε LOLP And E PLO <ε EPLO When the secondary power grid orderly power consumption plan passes the verification, otherwise the secondary power grid orderly power consumption plan fails to pass the verification.

[0100] Among them, ε LOLP is the risk threshold of the probability of orderly power load loss, ε EPLO It is the risk threshold of power loss of orderly power load.

[0101] The method for adjusting the orderly power consumption of the main power grid in S5 is to increase the orderly power consumption of the main power grid in steps of 5%.

[0102] Taking the improved MRBTS 5-node system as an example, this embodiment is described in detail, wherein orderly electricity consumption (OEC), orderly electricity power (OCP), power gap (PG), power shortage level (PSL)

[0103] The wiring diagram of the improved MRBTS 5-node system in this embodiment is as follows: Figure 2 shown.

[0104] The power source of the improved MRBTS 5-node system of this embodiment includes multiple types of units such as water, thermal, and photovoltaic. The detailed information is shown in Table 1.

[0105] Table 1 Generator set data

[0106]

[0107]

[0108] Considering the impact of the flood season and dry season on hydropower output, it is assumed that the output of the hydropower units in the first and fourth quarters is 60% of the rated capacity, and the output in the second and third quarters is 100% of the rated capacity. The system reserve capacity is 3% of the total installed capacity.

[0109] The load data of the improved MRBTS 5-node system in this embodiment is shown in Table 2. The system load types include residential load, industrial and commercial load, and double-high load. Assuming the power factor is 1, the allowable adjustment percentage of all load buses for peak shifting is 5%, and the allowable adjustment percentage for peak avoidance is 4%.

[0110] Table 2 Load data

[0111]

[0112]

[0113] First, the power shortage warning level under the power tight balance scenario of this system is divided, the orderly power consumption indicators are allocated, and finally an orderly power consumption plan is generated.

[0114] Draw the hourly power supply and load curves in chronological order. Figure 3 shown.

[0115] Through power and electricity balance analysis, we can analyze the tight balance period and power gap in a year. Figure 3 It can be seen that the MRBTS system has power shortages in July, August, September and October. The orderly power consumption plan for the above four months is determined by the method proposed in the present invention. Taking August as an example, the orderly power consumption allocation plan is shown in Table 3.

[0116] Table 3 Orderly electricity consumption sharing plan

[0117]

[0118] Taking the secondary grid 2 as an example, the orderly power consumption plan is as follows: Figure 4 shown.

[0119] Then the orderly power consumption plan is verified, and the calculation results are shown in Table 4.

[0120] Table 4 Reliability measurement indicators of OEC scheme

[0121]

[0122] The OEC scheme can be modified by comparing various reliability measures to risk thresholds below those specified by the grid.

[0123] The above are only specific embodiments of the present invention and are not intended to limit the present invention. For those skilled in the art, the present invention may have various modifications and variations. Any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement, etc. made within the spirit and principle of the present invention shall be included in the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for orderly power consumption control based on reliability measurement verification and correction, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: S1, calculate the power gap of the main grid through supply and demand power balance analysis, and determine the power shortage warning level of the main grid power tight balance scenario based on the calculated power gap of the main grid; S2, calculate the orderly power consumption of the secondary power grid according to the orderly power consumption of the main power grid; S3, compile an orderly power consumption plan for the secondary power grid according to the orderly power consumption of the secondary power grid; S4, generating scenarios for uncertain elements of the secondary power grid to obtain short-time random samples, wherein the uncertain elements include power load and photovoltaic power generation power; S5, verify the orderly power consumption plan of the secondary power grid according to the obtained short-time random samples. If the verification passes, the orderly power consumption plan of the secondary power grid is executed. If the verification fails, the orderly power consumption power of the main power grid in S2 is adjusted, and the orderly power consumption plan of the secondary power grid is recompiled until the orderly power consumption plan of the secondary power grid passes the verification.

2. The orderly power consumption control method based on reliability measurement verification and correction as claimed in claim 1, characterized in that: The power shortage of the main power grid in S1 is the percentage of insufficient power to peak load.

3. The orderly power consumption control method based on reliability measurement verification and correction as claimed in claim 1, characterized in that: The method for determining the power shortage warning level in the main power grid power tight balance scenario in S1 is as follows: When 20%≤main grid power gap<30%, the power shortage warning level of the main grid power tight balance scenario is Level I; When 10%≤main grid power gap<20%, the power shortage warning level of the main grid power tight balance scenario is Level II; When 5%≤main grid power gap<10%, the power shortage warning level of the main grid power tight balance scenario is level III; When the power gap of the main grid is less than 5%, the power shortage warning level of the main grid power tight balance scenario is Level IV.

4. The orderly power consumption control method based on reliability measurement verification and correction as claimed in claim 1, characterized in that: The method for calculating the orderly power consumption of the secondary power grid in S2 is: Among them, P OCP,i (t) is the orderly power consumption of secondary grid i at time t, is the main grid sequence power consumption at time t, λ i is the ratio of the orderly power consumption of the secondary grid i to the orderly power consumption of the main grid; where λ i The calculation method is Among them, p i T is the proportion of the total load capacity of the secondary grid i to the total load capacity of the main grid, p i I is the proportion of industrial load capacity of secondary grid i to industrial load capacity of main grid and p i H is the ratio of the dual-high load capacity of the secondary grid i to the dual-high load capacity of the main grid; Among them, α T is the weight coefficient of the total load orderly power consumption. When the power shortage warning level of the main power grid power tight balance scenario is level I, α T =100%, when the power shortage warning level of the main power grid tight balance scenario is level IIα T =90%, when the power shortage warning level of the main power grid power tight balance scenario is level III α T =50%, when the power shortage warning level of the main power grid tight balance scenario is IV levelα T =20%; α I is the weight coefficient of orderly power consumption of ordinary industrial and commercial loads. When the power shortage warning level of the main power grid power tight balance scenario is level I, α T =0%, when the power shortage warning level of the main power grid power tight balance scenario is level II α T =10%, when the power shortage warning level of the main power grid power tight balance scenario is level III α T =40%, when the power shortage warning level of the main power grid tight balance scenario is level IV α T =40%; α H is the weight coefficient of orderly power consumption under dual high loads. When the power shortage warning level of the main grid power tight balance scenario is level I, α T =0%, when the power shortage warning level of the main power grid power tight balance scenario is level II α T =0%, when the power shortage warning level of the main power grid power tight balance scenario is level III α T =10%, when the power shortage warning level of the main power grid tight balance scenario is IV levelα T =40%.

5. The orderly power consumption control method based on reliability measurement verification and correction as claimed in claim 1, characterized in that: The method for compiling the orderly power consumption plan of the secondary power grid in S3 is as follows: When P OCP,i (t) <P DR,i (t), P SHIFT,i (t) = 0, P AVERT,i (t) = 0, P RATION,i (t) = 0; when When P SHIFT,i (t) = P OCP,i (t)-P DR,i (t), P AVERT,i (t) = 0, P RATION,i (t) = 0; when hour, P RATION,i (t) = 0; When P OCP,i (t)≥P F,i (t), P RATION,i (t) = P OCP,i (t)-P F,i (t); Among them, P OCP,i(t) is the orderly power consumption of secondary grid i at time t, P SHIFT,i (t) is the dynamic capacity of the flexibility resource pool of the secondary grid i at time t; P DR,i (t) Load demand response power of secondary grid i at time t, P SHIFT,i (t) is the peak shifting power, P AVERT,i (t) is the peak avoidance power, P RATION,i (t) is the power limit; is the permissible peak shifting capacity of the secondary grid i at time t, is the allowable peak avoidance capacity of secondary grid i at time t.

6. The orderly power consumption control method based on reliability measurement verification and correction as claimed in claim 1, characterized in that: In S4, the method for generating scenarios for power loads and obtaining short-time series random samples is as follows: Among them, m is the serial number of the short-term power load sample, M is the number of short-term load samples, P load,m (t) is the power load value r corresponding to the tth period of the mth time series sample m,t is the error coefficient, r m,t is a continuous random variable that follows a normal distribution, P load,0 (t) is the power load forecast component corresponding to the tth period, P load,0 The calculation method of (t) is in, is the annual peak power load, P month is the percentage of monthly peak power load to annual peak power load, P hour (t) is the percentage of the peak power load in the tth period to the monthly peak power load, f month (t) is a function that returns the month of the t-th period.

7. The orderly power consumption control method based on reliability measurement verification and correction as claimed in claim 1, characterized in that: In S4, the method for generating a scene for photovoltaic power generation and obtaining a short-time random sample is as follows: Among them, P PV,m (t) is the photovoltaic power value corresponding to the tth period of the mth short time series sample, For sunrise time, For sunset time, is the photovoltaic power during the sunshine period, where Among them, Γ is the Gamma function, α and β are the shape parameters of the Beta distribution, P PV (t) is the photovoltaic power generation value corresponding to the tth period, is the maximum value of photovoltaic power generation.

8. The orderly power consumption control method based on reliability measurement verification and correction as claimed in claim 1, characterized in that: The method for verifying the orderly power consumption plan of the secondary power grid according to the obtained short-time random samples in S5 is as follows: Among them, L OLP is the probability index of orderly power load loss, m is the sequence number of the sample in the multiple sampling scenario, M is the number of samples in the multiple sampling scenario, H is the number of hours contained in a single short time series sample in the short time series multiple sampling scenario, and H outage,m is the number of power outage hours contained in the mth short time series sample, Among them, E PLO is the orderly power load loss power index, m is the sequence number of the multiple sampling scenario sample, M is the number of multiple sampling scenario samples, H is the number of hours contained in a single short time series sample in the short time series multiple sampling scenario, P outage,m (h) is the unplanned power outage load power value in the tth hour of the mth short time series sample, When L OLP <ε LOLP And E PLO <ε EPLO When the secondary power grid orderly power consumption plan passes the verification, otherwise the secondary power grid orderly power consumption plan fails to pass the verification. Among them, ε LOLP is the risk threshold of the probability of orderly power load loss, ε EPLO It is the risk threshold of power loss of orderly power load.

9. The orderly power consumption control method based on reliability measurement verification and correction as claimed in claim 1, characterized in that: The method for adjusting the orderly power consumption of the main power grid in S5 is to increase the orderly power consumption of the main power grid in steps of 5%.

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