Method and device for predicting investment demands of different voltage levels of power grid enterprise

Abstract

The invention relates to the field of power grid investment, and particularly discloses a method and a device for predicting different voltage class investment demands of a power grid enterprise, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining target historical voltage load data, calculating the load rates of various types of users, obtaining different voltage class peak loads, and carrying out the prediction of different voltage class investment demands based on the different voltage class peak loads. The method comprises the following steps: carrying out loss calculation to obtain line loss rates and transformation loss rates of different voltage levels of a peak load, calculating a highest power supply load under each voltage level step by step based on the line loss rates and the transformation loss rates to obtain increment loads of different voltage levels, and carrying out capacity-load ratio analysis based on the increment loads to obtain a total newly increased capacity demand. And performing prediction calculation according to the total newly increased capacity demand to obtain an investment demand prediction result. And a scientific basis is provided for planning and construction of a power grid.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the field of wireless communication technology, and in particular to a method and device for predicting investment demands of power grid enterprises at different voltage levels. Background Art

[0002] The voltage level of the distribution network refers to the series of nominal voltage values ​​used in the distribution network. The voltage level of the distribution network determines the insulation level required for the power supply equipment and directly affects the power loss and voltage loss. In the process of implementing the standardization of power supply voltage, in order to further reduce power loss, promote the standardization and specification of power equipment, reduce the number of spare parts, and facilitate operation and maintenance management, it is necessary to further simplify the voltage level and reduce the level of transformation. The voltage level classification standard is mainly based on the transmission distance and capacity requirements of electric energy. Generally speaking, the higher the voltage level, the longer the transmission distance and the larger the capacity; the lower the voltage level, the closer the transmission distance and the relatively smaller the capacity.

[0003] Currently, in the existing technology, demand forecasting is performed by machine learning after determining the influencing factors through historical data, and there is no prediction method that takes voltage level into consideration. Summary of the invention

[0004] To achieve the purpose of the present invention, a method for predicting investment demand of power grid enterprises at different voltage levels is provided, comprising: S1. Obtain the target historical voltage load data, calculate the load rate of each type of user, and obtain the peak load of different voltage levels; S2. Based on the peak loads at different voltage levels, loss calculation is performed to obtain line loss rates and transformer loss rates at different voltage levels at peak loads; S3. Based on the line loss rate and transformer loss rate, the maximum power supply load at each voltage level is calculated step by step to obtain the incremental loads at different voltage levels; S4. Based on the incremental load, perform capacity-to-load ratio analysis to obtain a total additional capacity requirement; S5. Perform forecast calculations based on the total new capacity demand to obtain investment demand forecast results.

[0005] Optionally, the S1 includes: S11, obtaining the target historical voltage load data, calculating the annual power consumption of various types of loads at different voltage levels, and determining the load rate of various types of users; S12. Based on the load rates of the various types of users, the maximum power loads of the different types of users on the corresponding maximum load days each year are calculated to obtain the peak loads at the different voltage levels.

[0006] Optionally, S2 includes: S21, obtaining physical data of the transmission line and the substation, and calculating according to the physical characteristics of the transmission line and the substation to obtain the line loss ratio and the transformer loss ratio; S22. Based on the peak loads of different voltage levels and the line loss ratio and transformer loss ratio, and according to the power balance of transmission and distribution losses at different voltage levels, iterative calculation is performed to obtain the line loss rate and transformer loss rate at different voltage levels of the peak loads.

[0007] Optionally, the S3 includes: S31. Based on the line loss rate and transformer loss rate, the maximum power supply load of each voltage level is calculated year by year from low to high, and the total maximum load demand is obtained; S32. When the voltage level of the calculated maximum power supply load is higher than the preset voltage level, the maximum power supply load of the current voltage level is the sum of the maximum power supply load of the next level and the maximum load demand of the current level, minus the power supply load of the power plant connected to the next level at the maximum load; S33. Perform incremental calculation based on the maximum total load demand to determine the incremental load.

[0008] Optionally, the S4 includes: S41. Determine different levels of total power supply load based on the incremental load; S42, obtaining target substation equipment data, performing capacity-load ratio analysis according to the total power supply load, and obtaining capacity-load ratios of different voltage levels; S43. Calculate based on the capacity-to-load ratio and the incremental load to obtain the total additional capacity requirement.

[0009] In order to achieve the purpose of the present invention, a device for predicting investment demand of power grid enterprises at different voltage levels is provided, comprising: The load rate calculation module is used to obtain the target historical voltage load data, calculate the load rate of each type of user, and obtain the peak load of different voltage levels; A loss calculation module, used to perform loss calculation based on the peak loads of different voltage levels to obtain line loss rates and transformer loss rates of different voltage levels of peak loads; An incremental load calculation module is used to calculate the maximum power supply load at each voltage level step by step based on the line loss rate and the transformer loss rate to obtain incremental loads at different voltage levels; A capacity-load ratio analysis module, used to perform capacity-load ratio analysis based on the incremental load to obtain a total additional capacity demand; The prediction module is used to perform prediction calculations based on the total new capacity demand to obtain investment demand prediction results.

[0010] Optionally, the load rate calculation module includes: The power calculation module is used to obtain the target historical voltage load data, calculate the annual power consumption of various loads at different voltage levels, and determine the load rate of various users; The power load calculation module is used to calculate the maximum power load of different types of users on the corresponding maximum load days each year based on the load rates of the various types of users, and obtain the peak loads of the different voltage levels.

[0011] Optionally, the loss calculation module includes: The physical loss calculation module is used to obtain the physical data of the transmission line and substation, and calculate the line loss ratio and transformer loss ratio according to the physical characteristics of the transmission line and substation themselves; The iterative calculation module is used to perform iterative calculation based on the peak loads of different voltage levels and the line loss ratio and transformer loss ratio, according to the power balance of transmission and distribution losses at different voltage levels, to obtain the line loss rate and transformer loss rate at different voltage levels of the peak loads.

[0012] Optionally, the incremental load calculation module includes: A power supply load calculation module, used to calculate the maximum power supply load of each voltage level from low to high year by year based on the line loss rate and transformer loss rate, and obtain the total maximum load demand; A high-level voltage load calculation module, used for calculating, when the voltage level of the highest power supply load is higher than the preset voltage level, the highest power supply load of the current voltage level is the sum of the highest power supply load of the next level and the highest load demand of the current level, minus the power supply load of the power plant connected to the next level at the highest load; The incremental calculation module is used to perform incremental calculation based on the maximum total load demand to determine the incremental load.

[0013] Optionally, the capacity-to-load ratio analysis module includes: A total power supply load confirmation submodule, used to determine different levels of total power supply loads based on the incremental load; The capacity-load ratio analysis submodule is used to obtain target substation equipment data, perform capacity-load ratio analysis according to the total power supply load, and obtain capacity-load ratios of different voltage levels; The total additional capacity requirement determination submodule is used to perform calculations based on the capacity-to-load ratio and the incremental load to obtain the total additional capacity requirement.

[0014] Beneficial effects of the above technical solution: This application first predicts the incremental load of different voltage levels during peak hours, conducts a detailed analysis of the power consumption and load rate of different user types, and considers the simultaneous rate of various user loads to calculate the peak load of the system. Secondly, according to the predicted maximum load demand, the transmission and distribution losses of each voltage level are calculated to determine the loss of electricity during the transmission process. After that, starting from the lowest voltage level, the maximum power supply load of each voltage level at peak load is calculated step by step to ensure the stable power supply of the power grid. Finally, by analyzing the capacity-load ratio of different voltage levels, combined with regional load growth and load characteristics, the overall new capacity demand of the power grid is predicted, thereby determining the investment scale and planned new capacity of the power grid. This method is crucial to ensuring the safe, stable and economical operation of the power grid, and also provides a scientific basis for the planning and construction of the power grid. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0015] In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application, the drawings required for use in the description of the embodiments will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present application. For those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative work.

[0016] Figure 1 A schematic flow chart of a method for predicting investment demand of power grid enterprises at different voltage levels provided by an embodiment of the present invention; Figure 2 A schematic diagram of the structure of a device for predicting investment demand at different voltage levels for a power grid enterprise provided by one embodiment of the present invention; Figure 3 A schematic diagram of power balance at different voltage levels of a method and device for predicting investment demand at different voltage levels for a power grid enterprise provided by an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0017] The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be described clearly and completely below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, rather than all the embodiments.

[0018] Examples of the embodiments are shown in the accompanying drawings, wherein the same or similar symbols throughout represent the same or similar elements or elements with the same or similar functions. The embodiments described below with reference to the accompanying drawings are exemplary and are intended to be used to explain the present invention, and should not be construed as limiting the present invention.

[0019] Embodiment 1 An embodiment of the present invention provides a method for predicting investment demand of power grid enterprises at different voltage levels, referring to Figure 1 As shown, including: S1. Obtain the target historical voltage load data, calculate the load rate of each type of user, and obtain the peak load of different voltage levels; To calculate the incremental load of different voltage levels during system peak hours, it is necessary to predict the annual electricity consumption of various types of loads at different voltage levels, and then calculate the corresponding maximum electricity load of different types of users on the annual maximum load day based on the load rate of each type of user.

[0020] Since different types of users have different load characteristics, the peak load occurrence time and load rate are also different, and the impact on the formation of the system peak load is also different.

[0021] In order to describe the impact of the maximum load of each type of user on the maximum load of the system, the simultaneity of various loads is considered and the loads of different voltage levels at the peak load moment of the system are calculated.

[0022] Furthermore, the specific steps of S1 include S11-S12: S11, obtaining the target historical voltage load data, calculating the annual power consumption of various types of loads at different voltage levels, and determining the load rate of various types of users; S12. Based on the load rates of the various types of users, the maximum power loads of the different types of users on the corresponding maximum load days each year are calculated to obtain the peak loads at the different voltage levels.

[0023] In the calculation, according to the load requirements of different voltage levels, the peak load demand and the maximum power supply load values ​​at different voltage levels are calculated layer by layer. The maximum power supply load increment of different voltage levels in the current year is the difference between each voltage level and the maximum power supply load increment in the next year.

[0024] In order to calculate the incremental load of different voltage levels during the system peak period, it is necessary to predict the annual electricity consumption of various types of loads at different voltage levels, and then calculate the maximum electricity load of different types of users on the corresponding annual maximum load day based on the load rate of each type of user.

[0025] Due to the different load characteristics of different types of users, the peak load occurrence time and load rate are also different, and the impact on the system peak load is also different. In order to describe the impact of the peak load of each type of user on the system peak load, the simultaneous rate of each type of load is considered and the load of different voltage levels at the peak load moment of the system is calculated.

[0026] The voltage levels from high to low are 500 kV, 220 kV, 110 kV, 35 kV, 10 kV, 380 / 220 V, a total of 6 levels (excluding ultra-high voltage). Annual voltage level Down The electricity consumption of users is: (1-1) Where: —No. Annual voltage level Down Type of user electricity consumption; —Voltage level Down Base annual electricity consumption of user type; — Annual growth rate of electricity consumption by user type; The load requirements of different voltage levels during system peak load are: (1-2) Where: —No. Annual voltage level Down Peak load demand of type of user; —No. Annual voltage level Down Type of user electricity consumption; —Voltage level Down Load factor of type of user; —Voltage level Down Concurrent rate of type of users; The simultaneity rate refers to the ratio of the load of a certain type of user during the system's highest load period to the sum of the maximum loads of all users of that type. The simultaneity rate of a user has a certain relationship with its load rate. Generally speaking, the higher the load rate, the higher the simultaneity rate; conversely, the lower the load rate, the lower the simultaneity rate. The relationship between the load rate and the simultaneity rate can usually be obtained through load surveys and statistics.

[0027] S2. Based on the peak loads at different voltage levels, loss calculation is performed to obtain line loss rates and transformer loss rates at different voltage levels at peak loads.

[0028] After obtaining the maximum load demand of each voltage level on the maximum load day considering the simultaneity rate, it is necessary to calculate the power transfer relationship of each voltage level at peak load year by year, such as Figure 3 shown.

[0029] Furthermore, the specific steps of S2 include S21-S22: S21. Obtain the physical data of the transmission line and the substation, and calculate according to the physical characteristics of the transmission line and the substation to obtain the line loss ratio and the transformer loss ratio.

[0030] According to the physical characteristics of the transmission lines and substations themselves, the proportional relationship between line losses and substation losses can be calculated.

[0031] (2-1) (2-2) Where: —Voltage level Line loss rate under —Voltage level and voltage level Line loss ratio between —Voltage level Transformation loss rate when supplying power to a lower voltage level; —Voltage level and voltage level The loss ratio between S22. Based on the peak loads of different voltage levels and the line loss ratio and transformer loss ratio, and according to the power balance of transmission and distribution losses at different voltage levels, iterative calculation is performed to obtain the line loss rate and transformer loss rate at different voltage levels of the peak loads.

[0032] (2-3) (2-4) (2-5) (2-6) (2-7) (2-8) Where: —Voltage level Internet load (including local load and load sent from other provinces); —Voltage level From the voltage level The power supply load obtained (minus transformer losses); —Voltage level Line loss rate; —Voltage level User load; —Voltage level Voltage level Power supply load (including transformer loss); —Voltage level Line loss load; —Voltage level Voltage level Power supply loss rate; —Voltage level Voltage level Transformer loss load of power supply; After iterative calculation, the power supply and consumption of each voltage level are balanced. At this time, the line loss rate and transformer loss rate of different voltage levels obtained are the required values.

[0033] S3. Based on the line loss rate and transformer loss rate, the maximum power supply load at each voltage level is calculated step by step to obtain the incremental loads at different voltage levels.

[0034] Starting from the lowest voltage level, according to the power supply relationship of each voltage level, the maximum power supply load at the system peak load of each voltage level each year is calculated step by step towards the higher voltage level.

[0035] Furthermore, the specific steps of S3 include S31-S33: S31. Based on the line loss rate and transformer loss rate, the maximum power supply load of each voltage level is calculated year by year from low to high, and the total maximum load demand is obtained.

[0036] For example, for the lowest voltage level 380 / 220V, the power supply load at peak load is: (3-1) Where: —No. Annual maximum total load demand at 380 / 220V voltage level; —No. Annual user load at 380 / 220V voltage level; —No. Annual line loss load at 380 / 220V voltage level; —No. Annual line loss rate of 380 / 220V voltage level; S32. When the calculated voltage level of the maximum power supply load is higher than the preset voltage level, the maximum power supply load of this level voltage is the sum of the maximum power supply load of the next level and the maximum load demand of this level, minus the power supply load of the power plant connected to the next level at the maximum load.

[0037] For higher voltage levels, when calculating the maximum power supply load on the maximum load day, the power supply load to the next level must be considered. The sum of the maximum power supply load to the next level and the maximum load demand of this level is taken as the total maximum power supply load of this voltage level. If the next level itself has a power plant connected, the power supply load of the next level power plant at the system maximum load must be deducted when calculating the total maximum power supply load of this level.

[0038] Voltage level The total peak load demand is: (3-2) Where: —No. Annual voltage level The highest total load demand (including the load demand at this level and the load demand for power supply to the lower level); —No. Annual voltage level User load; —No. Annual voltage level Voltage level Power supply load (including transformer loss); —No. Annual voltage level Line loss load; —Voltage level Line loss rate; —No. Annual voltage level From the voltage level The power supply load obtained (minus transformer losses); —Voltage level Voltage level Power supply loss rate; By calculating step by step from the lowest voltage level to the higher voltage level, the total peak load demand and the maximum power supply load on the maximum load day of each voltage level can be obtained year by year.

[0039] S33. Perform incremental calculation based on the maximum total load demand to determine the incremental load.

[0040] The difference between the maximum power supply load of each voltage level in the next year and the current year is the required maximum power supply load increment of each voltage level in the current year.

[0041] No. Annual voltage level The maximum power supply load increment is: (3-3) Where: —No. Annual voltage level The maximum load increment requirement; —No. Annual voltage level The total peak load demand; —No. Annual voltage level The total peak load demand; S4. Based on the incremental load, a capacity-to-load ratio analysis is performed to obtain a total additional capacity requirement.

[0042] Furthermore, the specific steps of S4 include S41-S43: S41. Determine different levels of total power supply load based on the incremental load; S42. Acquire target substation equipment data, perform capacity-load ratio analysis based on the total power supply load, and obtain capacity-load ratios of different voltage levels.

[0043] The capacity-load ratio is generally calculated by voltage level, which refers to the ratio of the total capacity of substation equipment of a certain voltage level in a certain power supply area to the corresponding maximum load on the basis of meeting the power supply reliability. The capacity-load ratio is an important indicator for macro-control of substation capacity in distribution network planning, and is also one of the indicators that reflect the degree of equipment utilization. It is expressed as: (4-1) Where: —Voltage level Load capacity ratio; —Voltage level Total capacity of main transformers; —Voltage level Total power supply load; If the capacity-to-load ratio is too large, it means that there is too much available capacity, and a large amount of capacity will not be fully utilized during actual operation; if the capacity-to-load ratio is too small, it means that the available capacity is too small, the adaptability of the power grid becomes poor, scheduling becomes difficult, power rationing occurs, and the safety of the power grid is reduced. Therefore, the range of the capacity-to-load ratio is very important for distribution network planning. It not only meets the reliability requirements of the power grid, but also considers the economy and rationality of the investment.

[0044] The capacity-load ratio is related to the calculation parameters, as well as the location, quantity, and mutual transfer capacity of the substations. The basic calculation formula for variable capacitance load ratio is: (4-2) Where: —Voltage level Load capacity ratio; —Voltage level The load distribution factor; —Voltage level The average power factor of —Voltage level Transformer safe operation rate; —Voltage level Load development reserve factor; When determining the range of regional load-to-capacity ratio, the average annual growth rate of the regional load, the regional load characteristics and load structure characteristics should be comprehensively considered. At present, the recommended load-to-capacity ratio ranges in various power grid planning guidelines and related materials are determined according to the regional load growth situation. The corresponding load growth rate is divided into three situations: slow, medium and fast, corresponding to different load-to-capacity ratio ranges.

[0045] According to the Urban Power Grid Planning and Design Guidelines (Q / GDW 156-2006), the capacity load ratio index ranges for different electricity price levels are different, as shown in Table 1.

[0046] Table 1 Selection range of power grid capacity ratio Load growth Slower growth Moderate growth Faster growth Average annual load growth rate 0%~7% 7%~12% 12% and above 500 kV and above 1.5~1.8 1.6~1.9 1.7~2.0 220 kV 1.6~1.9 1.7~2.0 1.8~2.1 110~35 kV 1.8~2.0 1.9~2.1 2.0~2.2 35～220 V 2.5~3.0 2.5~3.0 2.5~3.0 S43. Calculate based on the capacity-to-load ratio and the incremental load to obtain the total additional capacity requirement.

[0047] The overall investment scale of the power grid is composed of the investment scale of the power grid at different voltage levels, and a reasonable investment scale means that the transmission capacity of the power grid can meet the social electricity demand. Therefore, the total planned additional capacity of the power grid can be determined by measuring the additional capacity demand at different voltage levels.

[0048] The total additional capacity demand of the power grid is equal to the product of the capacity-to-load ratio of each voltage level and the maximum power supply load increment of each voltage level, that is, it satisfies: (4-3) Where: —No. Annual voltage level The additional capacity demand; —No. Annual voltage level The total peak load demand; —No. Annual voltage level The total peak load demand; —Voltage level Load capacity ratio; —No. Annual voltage level The maximum load increment requirement; The incremental demand for the maximum load of the power grid is continuous, but the capacity of the power grid project is not continuous. Therefore, when calculating the investment demand for power grid projects, it is necessary to consider the cumulative maximum load incremental demand at different voltage levels over a period of time.

[0049] (4-4) Where: —No. Annual voltage level The investment quantity demand of power grid projects; — Floor function; —No. Annual voltage level The additional capacity demand; —Voltage level Unit substation capacity; S5. Perform forecast calculations based on the total new capacity demand to obtain investment demand forecast results.

[0050] Embodiment 2 An embodiment of the present invention provides a device for predicting investment demand at different voltage levels of a power grid enterprise, referring to Figure 2 As shown, including: The load rate calculation module 201 is used to obtain the target historical voltage load data, calculate the load rate of each type of user, and obtain the peak load of different voltage levels; The loss calculation module 202 is used to perform loss calculation based on the peak loads of different voltage levels to obtain line loss rates and transformer loss rates of different voltage levels of peak loads; The incremental load calculation module 203 is used to calculate the maximum power supply load at each voltage level step by step based on the line loss rate and the transformer loss rate to obtain the incremental loads at different voltage levels; A capacity-load ratio analysis module 204 is used to perform capacity-load ratio analysis based on the incremental load to obtain a total additional capacity demand; The prediction module 205 is used to perform prediction calculation according to the total new capacity demand to obtain an investment demand prediction result.

[0051] Furthermore, the load rate calculation module 201 includes: The power calculation module is used to obtain the target historical voltage load data, calculate the annual power consumption of various loads at different voltage levels, and determine the load rate of various users; The power load calculation module is used to calculate the maximum power load of different types of users on the corresponding maximum load days each year based on the load rates of the various types of users, and obtain the peak loads of the different voltage levels.

[0052] Furthermore, the loss calculation module 202 includes: The physical loss calculation module is used to obtain the physical data of the transmission line and substation, and calculate the line loss ratio and transformer loss ratio according to the physical characteristics of the transmission line and substation themselves; The iterative calculation module is used to perform iterative calculation based on the peak loads of different voltage levels and the line loss ratio and transformer loss ratio, according to the power balance of transmission and distribution losses at different voltage levels, to obtain the line loss rate and transformer loss rate at different voltage levels of the peak loads.

[0053] Furthermore, the incremental load calculation module 203 includes: A power supply load calculation module, used to calculate the maximum power supply load of each voltage level from low to high year by year based on the line loss rate and transformer loss rate, and obtain the total maximum load demand; A high-level voltage load calculation module, used for calculating, when the voltage level of the highest power supply load is higher than the preset voltage level, the highest power supply load of the current voltage level is the sum of the highest power supply load of the next level and the highest load demand of the current level, minus the power supply load of the power plant connected to the next level at the highest load; The incremental calculation module is used to perform incremental calculation based on the maximum total load demand to determine the incremental load.

[0054] Furthermore, the capacity-load ratio analysis module 204 includes: A total power supply load confirmation submodule, used to determine different levels of total power supply loads based on the incremental load; The capacity-load ratio analysis submodule is used to obtain target substation equipment data, perform capacity-load ratio analysis according to the total power supply load, and obtain capacity-load ratios of different voltage levels; The total additional capacity requirement determination submodule is used to perform calculations based on the capacity-to-load ratio and the incremental load to obtain the total additional capacity requirement.

[0055] The above is only a specific embodiment of the present invention, but the protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereto. Any person skilled in the art can easily think of changes or substitutions within the technical scope disclosed by the present invention, which should be included in the protection scope of the present invention. Therefore, the protection scope of the present invention should be based on the protection scope of the claims.

[0056] Each embodiment in this specification is described in a progressive manner, and each embodiment focuses on the differences from other embodiments. The same and similar parts between the embodiments can be referenced to each other. The embodiments of the present invention are described with reference to the flowcharts and / or block diagrams of the methods, terminal devices (devices), and computer program products according to the embodiments of the present invention. It should be understood that each process and / or box in the flowchart and / or block diagram, as well as the combination of processes and / or boxes in the flowchart and / or block diagram, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, an embedded processor, or other programmable data processing terminal device to produce a machine, so that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing terminal device generate instructions for implementing the functions in the process. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 These computer program instructions can also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can guide a computer or other programmable data processing terminal device to work in a specific way, so that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce a product including an instruction device, which implements the functions specified in the process. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 These computer program instructions can also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing terminal device, so that a series of operation steps are executed on the computer or other programmable terminal device to produce a computer-implemented process, so that the instructions executed on the computer or other programmable terminal device provide for implementing the process in the process. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1The steps of the functions specified in one or more boxes. Although the preferred embodiments of the embodiments of the present invention have been described, those skilled in the art may make additional changes and modifications to these embodiments once they know the basic creative concept. Therefore, the attached claims are intended to be interpreted as including the preferred embodiments and all changes and modifications that fall within the scope of the embodiments of the present invention. Finally, it should be noted that, in this article, relational terms such as first and second, etc. are only used to distinguish one entity or operation from another entity or operation, and do not necessarily require or imply that there is any such actual relationship or order between these entities or operations. Moreover, the terms "include", "comprise" or any other variant thereof are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusion, so that the process, method, article or terminal device including a series of elements includes not only those elements, but also other elements that are not explicitly listed, or also includes elements inherent to such process, method, article or terminal device. In the absence of more restrictions, the elements defined by the sentence "including one..." do not exclude the existence of other identical elements in the process, method, article or terminal device including the elements.

[0057] The method and device provided by the present invention are introduced in detail above. Specific examples are used in this article to illustrate the principle and implementation mode of the present invention. The description of the above embodiments is only used to help understand the method of the present invention and its core idea. At the same time, for those skilled in the art, according to the idea of ​​the present invention, there will be changes in the specific implementation mode and application scope. In summary, the content of this specification should not be understood as limiting the present invention.

[0058] In the description of this specification, the description with reference to the terms "one embodiment", "some embodiments", "example", "specific example", "one specific embodiment" or "some examples" etc. means that the specific features, structures, materials or characteristics described in conjunction with the embodiment or example are included in at least one embodiment or example of the present invention. In this specification, the schematic representation of terms does not necessarily refer to the same embodiment or example. Moreover, the specific features, structures, materials or characteristics described may be combined in any one or more embodiments or examples in a suitable manner.

[0059] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present application, rather than to limit it. Although the present application has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that they can still modify the technical solutions described in the aforementioned embodiments, or make equivalent replacements for some of the technical features therein. However, these modifications or replacements do not cause the essence of the corresponding technical solutions to deviate from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present application.

Claims

1. A method for predicting investment demand of power grid enterprises at different voltage levels, characterized in that: include: S1. Obtain historical voltage load data, calculate the load rate of each type of user, and obtain peak loads at different voltage levels; S2. Based on the peak loads of different voltage levels, loss calculation is performed to obtain line loss rates and transformer loss rates of different voltage levels at peak loads; S3. Based on the line loss rate and transformer loss rate, the maximum power supply load at each voltage level is calculated step by step to obtain the incremental loads at different voltage levels; S4. Perform capacity-to-load ratio analysis based on the incremental load to obtain a total additional capacity demand; S5. Perform forecast calculation based on the total new capacity demand to obtain an investment demand forecast result.

2. The method for predicting investment demand of power grid enterprises at different voltage levels according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The S1 includes: S11, obtaining the historical voltage load data, calculating the annual power consumption of various types of loads at different voltage levels, and determining the load rate of various types of users; S12. Based on the load rates of the various types of users, the maximum power loads of the different types of users on the corresponding maximum load days each year are calculated to obtain the peak loads at the different voltage levels.

3. The method for predicting investment demand of power grid enterprises at different voltage levels according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The S2 includes: S21, obtaining physical data of the transmission line and the substation, and calculating according to the physical characteristics of the transmission line and the substation to obtain the line loss ratio and the transformer loss ratio; S22. Based on the peak loads of different voltage levels and the line loss ratio and transformer loss ratio, and according to the power balance of transmission and distribution losses at different voltage levels, iterative calculation is performed to obtain the line loss rate and transformer loss rate at different voltage levels during peak loads.

4. The method for predicting investment demand of power grid enterprises at different voltage levels according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The S3 includes: S31. Based on the line loss rate and transformer loss rate, the maximum power supply load of each voltage level is calculated year by year from low to high, and the total maximum load demand is obtained; S32. When the voltage level of the calculated maximum power supply load is higher than the preset voltage level, the maximum power supply load of the current voltage level is the sum of the maximum power supply load of the next level and the maximum load demand of the current level, minus the power supply load of the power plant connected to the next level at the maximum load; S33. Perform incremental calculation based on the maximum total load demand to determine the incremental load.

5. The method for predicting investment demand of power grid enterprises at different voltage levels according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The S4 includes: S41, determining different levels of total power supply load based on the incremental load; S42, obtaining target substation equipment data, performing capacity-load ratio analysis according to the total power supply load, and obtaining capacity-load ratios of different voltage levels; S43. Calculate based on the capacity-to-load ratio and the incremental load to obtain the total additional capacity requirement.

6. A device for predicting investment demand at different voltage levels for power grid enterprises, characterized in that: include: The load rate calculation module is used to obtain historical voltage load data, calculate the load rate of various users, and obtain the peak load of different voltage levels; A loss calculation module, used to perform loss calculation based on the peak loads of different voltage levels to obtain line loss rates and transformer loss rates of different voltage levels at peak loads; An incremental load calculation module is used to calculate the maximum power supply load at each voltage level step by step based on the line loss rate and the transformer loss rate to obtain incremental loads at different voltage levels; A capacity-load ratio analysis module, used to perform capacity-load ratio analysis based on the incremental load to obtain a total additional capacity demand; The prediction module is used to perform prediction calculations based on the total new capacity demand to obtain investment demand prediction results.

7. The device for predicting investment demand of power grid enterprises at different voltage levels according to claim 6, characterized in that: The load rate calculation module includes: The power calculation module is used to obtain the historical voltage load data, calculate the annual power consumption of various loads at different voltage levels, and determine the load rate of various users; The power load calculation module is used to calculate the maximum power load of different types of users on the corresponding maximum load days each year based on the load rates of the various types of users, and obtain the peak loads of the different voltage levels.

8. The device for predicting investment demand of power grid enterprises at different voltage levels according to claim 6, characterized in that: The loss calculation module includes: The physical loss calculation module is used to obtain the physical data of the transmission line and substation, and calculate the line loss ratio and transformer loss ratio according to the physical characteristics of the transmission line and substation themselves; The iterative calculation module is used to perform iterative calculation based on the peak loads of different voltage levels and the line loss ratio and transformer loss ratio, according to the power balance of transmission and distribution losses at different voltage levels, to obtain the line loss rate and transformer loss rate at different voltage levels during peak loads.

9. The device for predicting investment demand of power grid enterprises at different voltage levels according to claim 6, characterized in that: The incremental load calculation module includes: A power supply load calculation module, used to calculate the maximum power supply load of each voltage level from low to high year by year based on the line loss rate and transformer loss rate, and obtain the total maximum load demand; A high-level voltage load calculation module, used for calculating, when the voltage level of the highest power supply load is higher than the preset voltage level, the highest power supply load of the current voltage level is the sum of the highest power supply load of the next level and the highest load demand of the current level, minus the power supply load of the power plant connected to the next level at the highest load; The incremental calculation module is used to perform incremental calculation based on the maximum total load demand to determine the incremental load.

10. The device for predicting investment demand of power grid enterprises at different voltage levels according to claim 6, characterized in that: The capacity-to-load ratio analysis module includes: A total power supply load confirmation submodule, used to determine different levels of total power supply loads based on the incremental load; The capacity-load ratio analysis submodule is used to obtain target substation equipment data, perform capacity-load ratio analysis according to the total power supply load, and obtain capacity-load ratios of different voltage levels; The total additional capacity requirement determination submodule is used to perform calculations based on the capacity-to-load ratio and the incremental load to obtain the total additional capacity requirement.

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