Hydrogen energy system risk evaluation method based on N-K model
Through the N-K model-based hydrogen energy system risk assessment method, it is divided into four subsystems: human, machine, work and management, and a coupling relationship is established and quantitative analysis is carried out. The problems of various potential safety risks in the hydrogen energy system are solved, systemic risk identification and prediction are realized, and the safety of the hydrogen energy system is improved.
Patent Information
- Application Number
- CN202411935804.0
- Authority / Receiving Office
- CN · China
- Patent Type
- Applications(China)
- Current Assignee / Owner
- Filing Date
- 2024-12-26
- Publication Date
- 2025-04-25
AI Technical Summary
Hydrogen energy systems have a variety of potential safety risks in various aspects such as production, storage, transportation and application, including human errors, equipment failures, process defects, environmental factors and management errors, making it difficult to fully identify and evaluate these risk factors and their interactions.
Using the hydrogen energy system risk assessment method based on the N-K model, by dividing the hydrogen energy system into four subsystems: human, machine, work and management, a single-factor, two-factor and multi-factor coupling relationship is established, a coupling trigger mechanism is constructed, and an N-K model is introduced for quantitative analysis, and the risk coupling value is calculated to identify and evaluate risks.
This method can systematically analyze the risk factors and their interactions in the hydrogen energy system, predict potential safety accidents, formulate prevention and control measures, and improve the safety and reliability of the hydrogen energy system.
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Figure CN119886816A_ABST
Abstract
Description
Technical Field
[0001] The invention belongs to the field of hydrogen energy risk assessment and relates to a hydrogen energy system risk assessment method based on the NK model. Background Art
[0002] Hydrogen, as an energy source with high energy density and clean combustion characteristics, is gradually playing an increasingly important role in the global energy transformation. With the advancement of technology and increasing attention to environmental issues, the development and application of hydrogen energy has become one of the key ways to optimize the energy structure and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, the physical and chemical properties of hydrogen, such as its low density, high diffusion rate and flammability, also bring a series of safety challenges. These characteristics may cause safety accidents in various links such as the production, storage, transportation and application of hydrogen energy, posing a threat to personnel safety and equipment integrity.
[0003] The complexity of the hydrogen energy system lies in the many links involved, each of which contains a series of potential risk points. For example, in the preparation stage of hydrogen, whether through water electrolysis, natural gas reforming or other chemical processes, the reaction conditions need to be precisely controlled to prevent the risk of explosion caused by overheating or pressure accumulation. In the compression stage, the high-pressure processing of hydrogen requires special compressors and high-pressure storage tanks, which require strict operating procedures and regular safety inspections. In the storage stage, the low density of hydrogen requires high-pressure or low-temperature storage, which not only places high demands on the materials and design of the storage tanks, but also increases the risk of leakage and fire. In the transportation process, whether it is transported by pipeline or vehicle, the risk of hydrogen leakage, fire and explosion needs to be considered. Finally, in the use stage of hydrogen energy, whether in fuel cells, internal combustion engines or other applications, the safety and reliability of the system need to be ensured. Summary of the invention
[0004] In view of this, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a hydrogen energy system risk assessment method based on the NK model. This method needs to be able to comprehensively identify and evaluate various risk factors in the hydrogen energy system, including human errors, equipment failures, process defects, environmental factors, and management errors. Through this method, the interaction and coupling effects between these risk factors can be systematically analyzed, potential safety accidents can be predicted, and corresponding prevention and control measures can be formulated.
[0005] In order to achieve the above object, the present invention provides the following technical solutions:
[0006] A hydrogen energy system risk assessment method based on the NK model, the method comprising the following steps:
[0007] S1. Divide the hydrogen energy system into several subsystems, and establish single-factor coupling, double-factor coupling and multi-factor coupling relationships among the subsystems;
[0008] S2. Construct a coupling trigger mechanism to screen out the coupling factors that may trigger safety accidents;
[0009] S3, introduce the NK model to quantitatively analyze the coupling relationship between subsystems;
[0010] S4. Calculate the coupling risk values of the coupling factors that may trigger safety accidents and sort them to obtain the risk coupling situation.
[0011] Further, in step S1, the hydrogen energy system is divided into a human subsystem, a machine subsystem, a working subsystem and a management subsystem, wherein the human subsystem refers to all personnel involved in the operation, maintenance and management of the hydrogen energy system, including at least: operators, engineers, safety supervisors and managers; the machine subsystem refers to all mechanical equipment and process equipment in the hydrogen energy system, including at least: electrolyzers, compressors, hydrogen storage tanks, fuel cells; the working subsystem refers to various operating processes and process processes in the hydrogen energy system, including at least: preparation, storage, transportation and application of hydrogen; the management subsystem refers to the safety policy, operating procedures and emergency plans of the hydrogen energy system.
[0012] Further, in the coupling relationship established in step S1, the single-factor coupling relationship includes: risk coupling between people, risk coupling between machines, risk coupling between work and work, and risk coupling between management and management;
[0013] The two-factor coupling relationship includes: human-machine risk coupling, human-work risk coupling, human-management risk coupling, machine-work risk coupling, machine-management risk coupling, and work-management risk coupling;
[0014] The multi-factor coupling relationship includes: coupling of people, machines and work risks, coupling of people, machines and management risks, coupling of people, work and management risks, coupling of machines, work and management risks, and coupling of people, machines, work and management risks.
[0015] Further, in step S2, the trigger principle refers to the inclusion of several storage units in the digital circuit. When the current or voltage on a storage unit reaches a certain critical value, an electronic pulse is generated. At this time, the storage unit circuit trigger starts working and starts the next work procedure; building a coupling trigger mechanism refers to using the coupling trigger principle to test whether the degree of coupling between the risk factors of the hydrogen energy system can stimulate the trigger to generate a new pulse, thereby destroying the equilibrium state of the hydrogen energy system, resulting in a sharp increase in coupling risks or the generation of new risks.
[0016] Furthermore, the established coupling trigger mechanism specifically includes the following contents:
[0017] First, obtain the corresponding single risk factor R(t 1), namely, human risk factors, machine risk factors, work risk factors and management risk factors;
[0018] Then, a coupling trigger is established, including a sub-defense system, a coupling filter, and a coupling oscillator, wherein a human risk factor threshold D is set in the sub-defense system. a (t 1 ), Risk Factor Threshold D b (t 1 ), work risk factor threshold D c (t 1 ) and manage risk factor thresholds D d (t 1 ) ; Identify and mark factors that exceed corresponding thresholds;
[0019] In the coupling filter, the risk factors exceeding the threshold are filtered to obtain the processed risk factor R(t 2 ), and then the coupled oscillator performs oscillation processing to ensure the stability and evaluability of the risk factors.
[0020] Further, in step S3, firstly, the coupling probability between the human risk factor of the hth state, the mechanical risk factor of the ith state, the work risk factor of the jth state, and the management risk factor of the kth state in the human factor system is determined according to historical data, where h∈{0,1},i∈{0,1},j∈{0,1},k∈{0,1}, a value of 1 indicates that the factor involves risk coupling, and a value of 0 indicates that the factor does not involve risk coupling;
[0021] Then the interaction information U of the four factors coupled is calculated in turn. (a,b,c,d) , dual-factor coupling risk value U 2 , three-factor coupling risk value U 3 .
[0022] Furthermore, the interaction information U (a,b,c,d) The calculation formula is:
[0023]
[0024] P h , P i , P j and P k are the probabilities of each subsystem risk changing in each state, and:
[0025] The risk change probability P of the human factor system h The calculation formula is:
[0026] Risk change probability P of mechanical factor subsystem iThe calculation formula is:
[0027] Risk change probability P of work factor subsystem j The calculation formula is:
[0028] Risk change probability P of management factor subsystem k The calculation formula is:
[0029] Furthermore, the two-factor coupling risk value U 2 The calculation formula is:
[0030]
[0031] P hi , P hk , P hj , P ij , P ik and P jk is the probability of risk change of the two interacting subsystems in each state, where
[0032] The risk change probability P of the subsystem of coupled interaction between human and mechanical factors hi The calculation formula is:
[0033]
[0034] The risk change probability P of the subsystem of coupling interaction between human factors and management factors hk The calculation formula is:
[0035]
[0036] The risk change probability P of the subsystem of coupled interaction between human factors and work factors hj The calculation formula is:
[0037]
[0038] The risk change probability P of the subsystem of mechanical and working factors coupled interaction ij The calculation formula is:
[0039]
[0040] The risk change probability P of the subsystem of mechanical and management factors coupled interaction ik The calculation formula is:
[0041]
[0042] The risk change probability P of the subsystem of coupled interaction between work and management factors jk The calculation formula is:
[0043]
[0044] Furthermore, the three-factor risk coupling value U 3 The calculation formula is:
[0045]
[0046] P hij , P hik , P hjk and P ijk is the risk change probability of the three interacting subsystems in each state, among which the risk change probability P of the coupled interacting subsystems of human, mechanical and work factors is hij The calculation formula is:
[0047]
[0048] The risk change probability P of the subsystem of coupled interaction among human, mechanical and management factors hik The calculation formula is:
[0049]
[0050] The risk change probability P of the coupled interaction subsystem of human, work and management factors hjk The calculation formula is:
[0051]
[0052] The probability of risk change P of the coupled interaction subsystem of mechanical, work and management factors ijk The calculation formula is:
[0053]
[0054] Further, in step S4, according to the calculated U 2 , U 3 and U (a,b,c,d) Ranking and analysis are performed to assess the risk coupling in hydrogen energy systems.
[0055] The beneficial effects of the present invention are:
[0056] (1) This paper uses the coupling trigger theory to conduct an in-depth analysis of the formation mechanism of the coupling risk of the hydrogen energy system, and proposes a method for comprehensively evaluating the risk factors of the hydrogen energy system, providing a new theoretical framework for the systematic analysis of hydrogen energy safety risks.
[0057] (2) The present invention divides the hydrogen energy risk system into four subsystems: man, machine, work, and management. It also conducts a detailed analysis of the risk factors that lead to safety accidents in each subsystem. It also divides risk coupling into three categories: single factor, double factor, and multi-factor, thus achieving a refined classification of risk factors.
[0058] (3) The present invention introduces a coupling trigger mechanism to evaluate whether the interaction of risk factors can trigger new safety accidents, providing a scientific basis for risk warning and prevention, and enhancing the foresight and initiative of risk management.
[0059] (4) The present invention provides a systematic risk management framework to help hydrogen energy companies identify and manage key risk factors, reduce the occurrence of multi-factor coupling, and improve overall safety, which has important practical guidance value.
[0060] Other advantages, objectives and features of the present invention will be described in the following description to some extent, and to some extent, will be obvious to those skilled in the art based on the following examination and study, or can be taught from the practice of the present invention. The objectives and other advantages of the present invention can be realized and obtained through the following description. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS
[0061] In order to make the purpose, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more clear, the present invention will be described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, wherein:
[0062] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of the multi-factor coupling risk analysis method of hydrogen energy system based on NK model of the present invention;
[0063] Figure 2 It is a risk coupling schematic diagram of the hydrogen energy system of the present invention;
[0064] Figure 3 A mechanism diagram for forming coupling risk of the hydrogen energy system of the present invention;
[0065] Figure 4 This is a double-factor risk coupling result diagram under a preferred embodiment;
[0066] Figure 5 This is a diagram of multi-factor risk coupling results under a preferred embodiment. DETAILED DESCRIPTION
[0067] The following describes the embodiments of the present invention by specific examples, and those skilled in the art can easily understand other advantages and effects of the present invention from the contents disclosed in this specification. The present invention can also be implemented or applied through other different specific embodiments, and the details in this specification can also be modified or changed in various ways based on different viewpoints and applications without departing from the spirit of the present invention. It should be noted that the illustrations provided in the following embodiments only illustrate the basic concept of the present invention in a schematic manner, and the following embodiments and features in the embodiments can be combined with each other without conflict.
[0068] Among them, the drawings are only used for illustrative explanations, and they only represent schematic diagrams rather than actual pictures, and should not be understood as limitations on the present invention. In order to better illustrate the embodiments of the present invention, some parts of the drawings may be omitted, enlarged or reduced, and do not represent the size of actual products. For those skilled in the art, it is understandable that some well-known structures and their descriptions in the drawings may be omitted.
[0069] The same or similar numbers in the drawings of the embodiments of the present invention correspond to the same or similar parts; in the description of the present invention, it should be understood that if the terms "upper", "lower", "left", "right", "front", "rear", etc. indicate the orientation or position relationship, they are based on the orientation or position relationship shown in the drawings, which is only for the convenience of describing the present invention and simplifying the description, rather than indicating or implying that the device or element referred to must have a specific orientation, be constructed and operate in a specific orientation. Therefore, the terms describing the position relationship in the drawings are only used for illustrative purposes and cannot be understood as limiting the present invention. For ordinary technicians in this field, the specific meanings of the above terms can be understood according to specific circumstances.
[0070] See also Figure 1 to Figure 5 , which is a risk assessment method for hydrogen energy system based on NK model.
[0071] Example
[0072] like Figure 1 As shown, the present invention proposes a multi-factor coupling risk analysis method for hydrogen energy system based on NK model, and its specific steps are:
[0073] S1. Divide the hydrogen energy system into several subsystems, and establish single-factor coupling, double-factor coupling and multi-factor coupling relationships among the subsystems;
[0074] S2. Construct a coupling trigger mechanism to screen out the coupling factors that may trigger safety accidents;
[0075] S3, introduce the NK model to quantitatively analyze the coupling relationship between subsystems;
[0076] S4. Calculate the coupling risk values of the coupling factors that may trigger safety accidents and sort them to obtain the risk coupling situation.
[0077] In S1 of this embodiment, the human subsystem refers to all personnel involved in the operation, maintenance and management of the hydrogen energy system, including operators, engineers, safety supervisors and managers; the machine subsystem refers to all mechanical equipment and process equipment in the hydrogen energy system, such as electrolyzers, compressors, hydrogen storage tanks, fuel cells, etc.; the working subsystem refers to various operating processes and process flows in the hydrogen energy system, including the work processes of various links such as the preparation, storage, transportation and application of hydrogen; the management subsystem refers to the safety policy, operating procedures and emergency plans of the hydrogen energy system, and it is also responsible for supervising and evaluating the performance of the system to ensure that all safety measures are effectively implemented;
[0078] like Figure 2 As shown in the figure, single-factor risk coupling refers to the risk caused by the interaction between risk factors of the same attributes of the four subsystems, specifically, there are four types: human-human risk coupling, machine-machine risk coupling, work-work risk coupling, and management-management risk coupling; two-factor risk coupling refers to the risk caused by the interaction between risk factors of two different attributes of the four subsystems, specifically, there are six types: human-machine risk coupling, human-work risk coupling, human-management risk coupling, machine-work risk coupling, machine-management risk coupling, and work-management risk coupling; multi-factor risk coupling refers to the risk caused by the interaction between three or more risk factors of different attributes of the four subsystems, specifically, there are five types: human-machine-work risk coupling, human-machine-management risk coupling, human-work-management risk coupling, machine-work-management risk coupling, and human-machine-work-management risk coupling.
[0079] In S2 of the present embodiment, coupling factors include but are not limited to: coupling of human operating errors and equipment aging (human subsystem and machine subsystem), such as improper operation of the operator due to lack of experience when the electrolyzer is aging; coupling of workflow changes and mismatched management policies (work subsystem and management subsystem), such as changes in the hydrogen transportation process but failure to update the safety policy in a timely manner; coupling of equipment failures and unreasonable emergency response processes (machine subsystem and management subsystem), such as the inability to effectively implement emergency plans when hydrogen storage tanks fail, etc. The trigger principle refers to a large number of storage units in a digital circuit. When the current or voltage on the storage unit reaches a certain critical value, an electronic pulse is generated. At this time, the storage unit circuit trigger starts working and starts the next work procedure, such as Figure 3 As shown. Constructing a coupling trigger mechanism means using the coupling trigger principle to test whether the coupling degree between the risk factors of the hydrogen energy system can stimulate the trigger to generate a new pulse, thereby destroying the equilibrium state of the hydrogen energy system, resulting in coupling to first obtain the corresponding single risk factor R(t 1), namely, human risk factors, machine risk factors, work risk factors and management risk factors;
[0080] Then, a coupling trigger is established, including a sub-defense system, a coupling filter, and a coupling oscillator, wherein a human risk factor threshold D is set in the sub-defense system. a (t 1 ), Risk Factor Threshold D b (t 1 ), work risk factor threshold D c (t 1 ) and manage risk factor thresholds D d (t 1 ) ; Identify and mark factors that exceed corresponding thresholds;
[0081] In the coupling filter, the risk factors exceeding the threshold are filtered to obtain the processed risk factor R(t 2 ), and then the coupled oscillator performs oscillation processing to ensure the stability and evaluability of the risk factors, so as to facilitate the subsequent accurate assessment of the risks of the hydrogen energy system.
[0082] In S3 of this embodiment, the NK model is introduced to quantitatively study the coupling relationship between the subsystems, including the following steps:
[0083] S31. By calculating the interaction information between the risk factors of the four subsystems in the hydrogen energy safety accident system, the coupling effect is evaluated to form a new risk state. Generally speaking, the more couplings there are, the higher the probability of the coupling mode appearing, the greater the risk of the coupling, and the higher the possibility of causing an accident. (a,b,c,d) The calculation formula is Among them, P hijk is the probability of coupling between the human risk factor of the hth state, the mechanical risk factor of the ith state, the work risk factor of the jth state, and the management risk factor of the kth state in the human factor system, where h∈{0,1},i∈{0,1},j∈{0,1},k∈{0,1}, and a value of 1 indicates that the factor involves risk coupling, and a value of 0 indicates that the factor does not involve risk coupling; P h , P i , P j and P k are the probabilities of each subsystem risk changing in each state, and:
[0084] The risk change probability P of the human factor system h The calculation formula is:
[0085] Risk change probability P of mechanical factor subsystem iThe calculation formula is:
[0086] Risk change probability P of work factor subsystem j The calculation formula is:
[0087] Risk change probability P of management factor subsystem k The calculation formula is:
[0088] S32, for the six dual-factor risk coupling values U 2 , the specific calculation formula is:
[0089]
[0090] P hi , P hk , P hj , P ij , P ik and P jk is the probability of risk change of the two interacting subsystems in each state, where
[0091] The risk change probability P of the subsystem of coupled interaction between human and mechanical factors hi The calculation formula is:
[0092]
[0093] The risk change probability P of the subsystem of coupling interaction between human factors and management factors hk The calculation formula is:
[0094]
[0095] The risk change probability P of the subsystem of coupled interaction between human factors and work factors hj The calculation formula is:
[0096]
[0097] The risk change probability P of the subsystem of mechanical and working factors coupled interaction ij The calculation formula is:
[0098]
[0099] The risk change probability P of the subsystem of mechanical and management factors coupled interaction ik The calculation formula is:
[0100]
[0101] The risk change probability P of the subsystem of coupled interaction between work and management factors jk The calculation formula is:
[0102]
[0103] S33, for the four three-factor risk coupling values U 3 , the specific calculation formula is:
[0104]
[0105] P hij , P hik , P hjk and P ijk is the probability of risk change of the three interacting subsystems in each state.
[0106] The risk change probability P of the coupled interaction subsystem of human, mechanical and work factors hij The calculation formula is:
[0107]
[0108] The risk change probability P of the subsystem of coupled interaction among human, mechanical and management factors hik The calculation formula is:
[0109]
[0110] The risk change probability P of the coupled interaction subsystem of human, work and management factors hjk The calculation formula is:
[0111]
[0112] The probability of risk change P of the coupled interaction subsystem of mechanical, work and management factors ijk The calculation formula is:
[0113]
[0114] S4, after calculating U 2 , U 3 and U (a,b,c,d) Finally, these risk coupling metrics are ranked and analyzed to assess the risk coupling in hydrogen energy systems.
[0115] This embodiment is based on the multi-factor coupling risk analysis method of the hydrogen energy system based on the NK model of the present invention, which specifically includes:
[0116] (1) We sorted out the Hydrogen Accident and Incident Database HIAD 2.1 released by the Joint Research Center of the European Commission, screened out 92 accidents with clear causes of death caused by hydrogen accidents, and conducted a comprehensive analysis. We obtained the number and frequency of risk coupling of hydrogen accidents. The results are shown in Table 1. The number and frequency of accident risk coupling is 1, where 0 means that the factor involves risk coupling and 1 means that the factor does not involve risk coupling.
[0117] Table 1
[0118]
[0119] (2) According to the risk coupling probability in the table, when human risk factors do not participate in the risk coupling of hydrogen energy safety accidents, calculate the probability of accidents occurring under risk coupling P 0… :P 0… =P 0000 +P 0001 +P 0010 +P 0011 +P 0100 +P 0101 +P 0110 +P 0111 =0.652, calculate the risk coupling probability P of other single factors as shown in Table 2:
[0120] Table 2
[0121]
[0122] (3) According to the risk coupling probability in the table, when human risk factors and machine risk factors do not participate in the risk coupling of hydrogen energy safety accidents, calculate the probability of accidents under risk coupling P 00.. :P 00.. =P 0000 +P 0001 +P 0010 +P 0011 =0.2065, calculate the risk coupling probability P of other two factors, as shown in Table 3:
[0123] Table 3
[0124]
[0125] (4) Calculate the risk coupling probability P of multiple factors, as shown in Table 4:
[0126] Table 4
[0127]
[0128] (5) Calculate the accident risk coupling value and rank it, as shown in Table 5. The risk coupling results of two factors and multi-factor risk coupling are shown in Table 5. Figure 4 and Figure 5 shown.
[0129] Table 5
[0130]
[0131]
[0132] The results illustrate the determinants of hydrogen safety accidents, which depend on the size of the risk coupling value. The risk coupling value is positively correlated with the number of risk factors involved in the coupling. Specifically, the four-factor coupling brings the highest risk, followed by the three-factor coupling and then the two-factor coupling. In the three-factor coupling, the risk brought by the machine-work-management factor combination is the highest, followed by the human-work-management and human-machine-work combinations, and the human-machine-management combination has the lowest impact. In the two-factor coupling, the human-machine coupling has the highest risk, followed by the work-management, machine-management, human-work and human-management couplings, and the machine-work coupling has the lowest risk. It is worth noting that, whether it is three-factor or two-factor coupling, the machine factor appears in the scenario with the highest coupling value. This indicates that machine-related errors, including system design defects, material / manufacturing defects and installation errors, may be an important cause of hydrogen accidents. Therefore, hydrogen energy companies should give priority to strengthening equipment design, maintenance and installation to reduce the occurrence of hydrogen accidents. In addition, the risk coupling caused by work and management factors is also worthy of attention.
[0133] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solution of the present invention rather than to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the preferred embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that the technical solution of the present invention can be modified or replaced by equivalents without departing from the purpose and scope of the technical solution, which should be included in the scope of the claims of the present invention.
Claims
1. A hydrogen energy system risk assessment method based on the NK model, characterized by: The method comprises the following steps: S1. Divide the hydrogen energy system into several subsystems, and establish single-factor coupling, double-factor coupling and multi-factor coupling relationships among the subsystems; S2. Construct a coupling trigger mechanism to screen out the coupling factors that may trigger safety accidents; S3, introduce the NK model to quantitatively analyze the coupling relationship between subsystems; S4. Calculate the coupling risk values of the coupling factors that may trigger safety accidents and sort them to obtain the risk coupling situation.
2. The hydrogen energy system risk assessment method based on the NK model according to claim 1, characterized in that: In step S1, the hydrogen energy system is divided into a human subsystem, a machine subsystem, a working subsystem and a management subsystem, wherein the human subsystem refers to all personnel involved in the operation, maintenance and management of the hydrogen energy system, including at least: operators, engineers, safety supervisors and managers; the machine subsystem refers to all mechanical equipment and process equipment in the hydrogen energy system, including at least: electrolyzers, compressors, hydrogen storage tanks, fuel cells; the working subsystem refers to various operating processes and process processes in the hydrogen energy system, including at least: preparation, storage, transportation and application of hydrogen; the management subsystem refers to the safety policy, operating procedures and emergency plans of the hydrogen energy system.
3. The hydrogen energy system risk assessment method based on the NK model according to claim 2 is characterized in that: In the coupling relationship established in step S1, the single-factor coupling relationship includes: risk coupling between people, risk coupling between machines, risk coupling between work and work, and risk coupling between management and management; The two-factor coupling relationship includes: human-machine risk coupling, human-work risk coupling, human-management risk coupling, machine-work risk coupling, machine-management risk coupling, and work-management risk coupling; The multi-factor coupling relationship includes: coupling of people, machines and work risks, coupling of people, machines and management risks, coupling of people, work and management risks, coupling of machines, work and management risks, and coupling of people, machines, work and management risks.
4. The hydrogen energy system risk assessment method based on the NK model according to claim 3 is characterized by: In step S2, the trigger principle refers to the inclusion of several storage units in the digital circuit. When the current or voltage on a storage unit reaches a certain critical value, an electronic pulse is generated. At this time, the storage unit circuit trigger starts working and starts the next work procedure; building a coupling trigger mechanism refers to using the coupling trigger principle to test whether the degree of coupling between the risk factors of the hydrogen energy system can stimulate the trigger to generate a new pulse, thereby destroying the equilibrium state of the hydrogen energy system, resulting in a sharp increase in coupling risks or the generation of new risks.
5. The hydrogen energy system risk assessment method based on the NK model according to claim 4 is characterized in that: The established coupling trigger mechanism specifically includes the following contents: First, obtain the corresponding single risk factors R(t1), that is, human risk factors, machine risk factors, work risk factors, and management risk factors; Then, a coupling trigger is established, including a sub-defense system, a coupling filter, and a coupling oscillator, wherein a human risk factor threshold D is set in the sub-defense system. a (t1), machine risk factor threshold D b (t1), work risk factor threshold D c (t1) and the management risk factor threshold D d (t1); Identify and mark factors that exceed corresponding thresholds; In the coupling filter, the risk factors exceeding the threshold are filtered to obtain the processed risk factor R(t2), which is then oscillated by the coupling oscillator to ensure the stability and evaluability of the risk factor.
6. The hydrogen energy system risk assessment method based on the NK model according to claim 5 is characterized in that: In step S3, firstly, the coupling probability between the human risk factor of the hth state, the mechanical risk factor of the ith state, the work risk factor of the jth state, and the management risk factor of the kth state in the human factor system is determined according to historical data, where h∈{0,1},i∈{0,1},j∈{0,1},k∈{0,1}, a value of 1 indicates that the factor involves risk coupling, and a value of 0 indicates that the factor does not involve risk coupling; Then the interaction information U of the four factors coupled is calculated in turn. (a,b,c,d) , two-factor coupling risk value U2, three-factor coupling risk value U3.
7. The hydrogen energy system risk assessment method based on the NK model according to claim 6 is characterized by: Interaction Information U (a,b,c,d) The calculation formula is: P h , P i , P j and P k are the probabilities of each subsystem risk changing in each state, and: The risk change probability P of the human factor system h The calculation formula is: Risk change probability P of mechanical factor subsystem i The calculation formula is: Risk change probability P of work factor subsystem j The calculation formula is: Risk change probability P of management factor subsystem k The calculation formula is:
8. The hydrogen energy system risk assessment method based on the NK model according to claim 6 is characterized by: The calculation formula of the dual-factor coupling risk value U2 is: P hi , P hk , P hj , P ij , P ik and P jk is the probability of risk change of the two interacting subsystems in each state, where The risk change probability P of the subsystem of coupled interaction between human and mechanical factors hi The calculation formula is: The risk change probability P of the subsystem of coupling interaction between human factors and management factors hk The calculation formula is: The risk change probability P of the subsystem of coupled interaction between human factors and work factors hj The calculation formula is: The risk change probability P of the subsystem of mechanical and working factors coupled interaction ij The calculation formula is: The risk change probability P of the subsystem of mechanical and management factors coupled interaction ik The calculation formula is: The risk change probability P of the subsystem of coupled interaction between work and management factors jk The calculation formula is:
9. A hydrogen energy system risk assessment method based on the NK model according to claim 6, characterized in that: The calculation formula of the three-factor risk coupling value U3 is: P hij , P hik , P hjk and P ijk is the probability of risk change of the three interacting subsystems in each state, where The risk change probability P of the coupled interaction subsystem of human, mechanical and work factors hij The calculation formula is: The risk change probability P of the subsystem of coupled interaction among human, mechanical and management factors hik The calculation formula is: The risk change probability P of the coupled interaction subsystem of human, work and management factors hjk The calculation formula is: The probability of risk change P of the coupled interaction subsystem of mechanical, work and management factors ijk The calculation formula is:
10. A hydrogen energy system risk assessment method based on the NK model according to claim 6, characterized in that: In step S4, according to the calculated U2, U3 and U (a,b,c,d) Ranking and analysis are performed to assess risk coupling in hydrogen energy systems.