Power grid material carbon footprint evaluation system

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of carbon footprint evaluation systems, and particularly discloses a power grid material carbon footprint evaluation system, which comprises a calculation module used for analyzing the production process of a distribution transformer and calculating the carbon footprint of the production process; the modeling module is used for establishing a carbon footprint calculation model and a carbon footprint prediction model of the distribution transformer according to the ISO14064 standard, the ISO14067 standard and the PAS2050 standard on the basis of the carbon footprint, calculated by the calculation module, of the production process; the generation module is used for carrying out carbon footprint typical value calculation on the distribution transformer based on the carbon footprint calculation model and carrying out carbon footprint prediction based on the carbon footprint prediction model; and the evaluation module is used for evaluating and grading the carbon footprint after calculating and predicting the carbon footprint of the distribution transformer. According to the invention, not only is the environmental influence reduced, but also the production efficiency and sustainable development are promoted.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of carbon footprint evaluation systems, and in particular to a carbon footprint evaluation system for power grid materials. Background Art

[0002] Carbon footprint refers to the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions generated during the life cycle of a product or service, usually expressed in carbon dioxide equivalent units. It includes direct and indirect emissions, covering all links from raw material collection to production and transportation. Carbon footprint assessment includes data collection, calculation, verification and reporting. The carbon emissions of power grid materials vary due to different production processes, and there is a lack of a targeted and quantifiable carbon footprint evaluation system. Summary of the invention

[0003] In view of the technical problem that there is a lack of a targeted and quantifiable carbon footprint evaluation system in the prior art, the present invention provides a power grid material carbon footprint evaluation system.

[0004] The technical solution adopted by the present invention is: a power grid material carbon footprint evaluation system, comprising:

[0005] A calculation module, which calculates the carbon footprint of the production process by analyzing the production process of the distribution transformer;

[0006] The modeling module is used to form a carbon footprint calculation model for distribution transformers based on the carbon footprint of the production process calculated by the calculation module in accordance with ISO14064, ISO14067 and PAS2050 standards, and to establish a carbon footprint prediction model;

[0007] A generation module, used for calculating a typical value of the carbon footprint of the distribution transformer based on a carbon footprint calculation model, and for predicting the carbon footprint based on a carbon footprint prediction model;

[0008] The evaluation module is used to evaluate and grade the carbon footprint of distribution transformers after calculating and predicting the carbon footprint.

[0009] The present invention is further configured such that the calculation formula of the carbon footprint calculation model is as follows:

[0010]

[0011] In the formula, C YA is the total carbon emissions, M Y-i Refers to the amount of raw materials used in the distribution transformer in year i, R Y-i refers to the carbon emission factor of raw materials in year i, D Y-i It refers to the carbon emission factor of the production process of distribution transformers in the i-th year, T Y-i refers to the duration of production in the i-th year, NFi Refers to the amount of other materials used in the production process, EF i Refers to the carbon emission factors of other materials, WD i Refers to the amount of waste generated during the production process, D W-i WD i Output rate, T W-i WD i The output time, W i refers to the amount of energy, RR i It means W i The emission reduction factor, Q i W i The efficiency factor of

[0012] After calculating the carbon footprint of distribution transformers, the carbon footprint is quantitatively graded and the carbon efficiency ratio of material production is established. The specific calculation formula is as follows:

[0013]

[0014] In the formula, PCER is the production carbon efficiency ratio, k p and k u is the weight coefficient, C P represents the carbon footprint of the production stage, C U represents the carbon footprint of the use phase, G is the total output, represents the square of Mahalanobis distance, X is the observation vector, μ is the mean vector, W is the weight matrix, is the covariance matrix, Sc x For the score, is the square of the Mahalanobis distance of the x-th observation, and are the minimum and maximum squared Mahalanobis distances among all observations, respectively.

[0015] After calculating the carbon footprint of distribution transformers, the carbon footprint is quantitatively graded and the specific calculation formula for the carbon efficiency of material production is established as follows:

[0016]

[0017] In the formula, PCER is the production carbon efficiency ratio, k p and k u is the weight coefficient, C P represents the carbon footprint of the production stage, C U represents the carbon footprint of the use phase, G is the total output, represents the square of Mahalanobis distance, X is the observation vector, μ is the mean vector, W is the weight matrix, ∑ is the covariance matrix, Sc x is a fraction, D x 2 is the square of the Mahalanobis distance of the x-th observation, and are the minimum and maximum squared Mahalanobis distances among all observations, respectively.

[0018] The present invention is further configured to classify the carbon footprint calculation results and select a set of processes with large carbon emissions. The formula is as follows:

[0019]

[0020] In the formula, X represents each process, n is the number of processes in the set, and K represents the average carbon emissions. N is the carbon emission of the nth production process, N is the number of processes with the largest carbon emission in the set, θ' is the carbon emission adjustment coefficient, and m1 and m2 represent the carbon emissions of two different processes.

[0021] The present invention is further configured to further include establishing a marginal carbon footprint for quantifying the coupling relationship between the quality index and the carbon footprint of each link, and the calculation formula is as follows:

[0022]

[0023] In the formula, MC k represents the marginal carbon footprint, Represents the total carbon emissions C U is the load power P k The partial derivative of , T is the transformer grid operation time, λ is the average load rate, E e Indicates the energy consumption of the transformer.

[0024] The present invention is further configured to include an evaluation of the carbon footprint of the distribution transformer over its entire life cycle based on the life cycle assessment method (LCA) and IPCC theory in combination with a geographic information system (GIS), as follows:

[0025] First, geographic information system (GIS) integration, which integrates the four stages of life cycle assessment with the GIS and uses GIS technology to perform spatial analysis on all input and output data of distribution transformers during their production life cycle;

[0026] Secondly, complete the real-time carbon data accounting, record the carbon emission data corresponding to the initial carbon data in real time, and match the preset multiples of the carbon conversion rate extreme value to determine the distribution transformer to be accounted for and its carbon monitoring attributes; use GIS technology to perform spatial analysis on all input and output data of the distribution transformer during the production life cycle;

[0027] The specific calculation formula is as follows:

[0028]

[0029] Among them: CF GHG Indicates the carbon footprint of a distribution transformer or a part of a distribution transformer Unit: kgCO2e / functional unit, activity data i Represents the GHG emission and removal related data of the ith activity in each functional unit within the system boundary. The unit is determined according to the specific emission source; emission factor i,j GWP represents the emission coefficient of greenhouse gas j corresponding to the i-th activity, and the unit matches the GHG activity data; j Represents the global warming potential (GWP) of greenhouse gas j, updated according to the latest data provided by the IPCC.

[0030] The present invention is further configured to include establishing a carbon footprint prediction model, including the following steps:

[0031] First, the carbon emissions of the raw material acquisition and pretreatment modules are calculated as follows:

[0032]

[0033] in, Represents the carbon emissions of the i-th raw material acquisition and pretreatment stage in the production process of distribution transformers, unit: tCO2e,M i It represents the estimated usage of the i-th raw material in the production process of distribution transformers, unit: t, It represents the unit carbon emission coefficient of the acquisition and pretreatment of the i-th raw material in the production process of distribution transformers, unit: tCO2e / unit raw material; Indicates the carbon emissions during the material transportation process;

[0034] The calculation formula is: EF t,i represents the carbon emission factor of transport mode i, D i Indicates the transportation distance of raw materials (unit: kilometers, km), represents the additional carbon emissions during the pre-processing of raw materials;

[0035] Secondly, calculate the carbon emissions during the production and manufacturing stage. The carbon emissions calculation formula is:

[0036]

[0037] in, represents the carbon emissions generated by energy consumption in the manufacturing stage of distribution transformers, j represents the energy type, P j Indicates the power of energy (unit: for example, kilowatt, kW), t j Indicates the energy usage time (unit: hours, h), EF jrepresents the carbon emission factor of the j-th energy (unit: tCO2e / kWh or tCO2e / unit of energy);

[0038] For the carbon emissions from chemical reactions in the production process of distribution transformers, assuming that there are n chemical reactions in the production process of distribution transformers, the carbon emissions calculation formula for the kth chemical reaction is: in, represents the carbon emission produced by the kth chemical reaction, R k Indicates the amount of substance involved in the kth chemical reaction (unit: mole, mol), CF k The carbon emission coefficient of the chemical reaction (unit: tCO2e / mol) is expressed as follows:

[0039]

[0040] Calculate the carbon emissions during the assembly of distribution transformers:

[0041] Assume that the time required to assemble a distribution transformer is t a , the power of the assembly equipment is P a ,The carbon emission of auxiliary materials during the assembly process is The carbon emission calculation formula of the distribution transformer assembly module is:

[0042]

[0043] Among them, E ass represents the carbon emissions of the distribution transformer assembly module, EF a represents the carbon emission factor of the energy of distribution transformer assembly (unit: tCO2e / kWh or tCO2e / unit of energy). For the distribution transformer packaging, the type and quantity of packaging materials, as well as the energy consumption in the packaging process are considered; let the amount of the i-th packaging material used be N i , the carbon emission per unit of packaging material is CF p,i , the energy consumption in the packaging process is The carbon emissions calculation formula for the product packaging module is:

[0044]

[0045] The total carbon emissions of the distribution transformer assembly and packaging module are:

[0046] E ap =E ass +E pach

[0047] The total carbon footprint AC estimation formula for the distribution transformer production process is:

[0048]

[0049] Among them, E other Indicates other possible sources of carbon emissions;

[0050] Build predictive models;

[0051] Taking the total carbon footprint CF as the dependent variable and the carbon emission factors of each production link as the independent variable, a prediction model is established, and the calculation formula is as follows;

[0052]

[0053] Among them, β0 is the intercept term, β i is the regression coefficient of the ith independent variable, X i is the value of the i-th independent variable, ∈ is the error term, and the value of the regression coefficient is determined by performing regression analysis on historical data.

[0054] The beneficial effects of the present invention are:

[0055] 1. In this invention, the carbon footprint can be systematically managed and optimized during the production process of distribution transformers. These modules work together to first calculate the carbon emissions during the production process, then establish a carbon footprint model based on international standards, and then identify key carbon emission factors through sensitivity analysis and quantify their impact. This whole process not only helps to reduce environmental impact, but also promotes production efficiency and sustainability. In this way, companies can more accurately control and reduce the carbon emissions of their products throughout the life cycle, while improving resource utilization efficiency and environmental responsibility.

[0056] 2. In the present invention, by verifying and optimizing the established prediction model, the historical data can be divided into a training set and a test set. The model is trained using the training set data, and then the prediction performance of the model is evaluated using the test set data. The prediction accuracy and reliability of the model are improved by adjusting the structure and parameters of the model or using different algorithms. The expected production plan data is substituted into the established prediction model to calculate the carbon footprint prediction value of the distribution transformer production process, thereby helping enterprises to understand the carbon footprint data information in advance. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0057] The following will be combined with the embodiments of the present invention to clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0058] In order to solve the problems existing in the background technology, the present application proposes the following technical solution: a power grid material carbon footprint evaluation system, comprising:

[0059] A calculation module, which calculates the carbon footprint of the production process by analyzing the production process of the distribution transformer;

[0060] Modeling module: The modeling module forms a carbon footprint calculation model for distribution transformers based on ISO14064, ISO14067 and PAS2050 standards, and establishes a carbon footprint prediction model;

[0061] A generation module, which calculates a typical value of the carbon footprint of the distribution transformer based on a carbon footprint calculation model;

[0062] The full names of the specific standards are as follows:

[0063] ISO14064 "International Greenhouse Gas Emissions Certification System", PAS2050 "Greenhouse Gas Emissions Assessment Specification for Goods and Services during the Life Cycle", ISO14067 "General Requirements for Greenhouse Gas Verification and Certification Bodies";

[0064] In summary, the carbon footprint can be systematically managed and optimized during the production process of distribution transformers. These modules work together to first calculate the carbon emissions during the production process, then establish a carbon footprint model based on international standards, and then identify key carbon emission factors through sensitivity analysis and quantify their impact. This whole process not only helps to reduce environmental impact, but also promotes production efficiency and sustainability. In this way, companies can more accurately control and reduce the carbon emissions of their products throughout their life cycle, while improving resource utilization efficiency and environmental responsibility.

[0065] In further design,

[0066] The calculation formula of the carbon footprint calculation model is as follows:

[0067]

[0068] In the formula, C YA is the total carbon emissions, M Y-i Refers to the amount of raw materials used in the distribution transformer in year i, R Y-i refers to the carbon emission factor of raw materials in year i, D Y-i It refers to the carbon emission factor of the production process of distribution transformers in the i-th year, T Y-i refers to the duration of production in the i-th year, NF i Refers to the amount of other materials used in the production process, EF i Refers to the carbon emission factors of other materials, WD iRefers to the amount of waste generated during the production process, D W-i WD i Output rate, T W-i WD i The output time, W i refers to the amount of energy, RR i It means W i The emission reduction factor, Q i W i efficiency factor.

[0069] The calculation examples are as follows:

[0070] Assumptions:

[0071] M Y-i =1000

[0072] R Y-i = 0.5 tons of CO2 units

[0073] D Y-i = 0.2 tons of CO2 units

[0074] T Y-i =10 hours

[0075] NF i =500

[0076] EF i = 0.3 tons of CO2 / unit

[0077] WD i =200

[0078] D W-i =0.1

[0079] T W-i =5 hours

[0080] W i =1000

[0081] RR i =0.8

[0082] Q i =0.9

[0083] therefore,

[0084]

[0085] Simplify each term:

[0086]

[0087] Assume n = 1 to simplify the calculation:

[0088]

[0089] C YA =500+2000+150+100-360

[0090] C YA =2390

[0091] Therefore, based on the given example values, the total carbon emissions C YA It is 2390 tons of CO2.

[0092] In further design:

[0093] It also includes classifying the carbon footprint calculation results and selecting a set of processes with large carbon emissions. The formula is as follows:

[0094]

[0095] In the formula, X represents each process, n is the number of processes in the set, and K represents the average carbon emissions. N is the carbon emission of the nth production process, N is the number of processes with the largest carbon emission in the set, θ' is the carbon emission adjustment coefficient, and m1 and m2 represent the carbon emissions of two different processes.

[0096] The above technical solution is explained as follows: In order to effectively reduce carbon emissions in the production process of distribution transformers, it is important to identify and focus on the processes with the largest carbon footprint. By classifying the carbon footprint calculation results and selecting the set of processes with the largest carbon emissions, we can more accurately locate areas that need improvement. Using the formula to calculate the average carbon emissions K and the carbon emissions adjustment coefficient θ', we are able to quantify the contribution of each process to the total carbon emissions and adjust the strategy to optimize the production process. This approach not only helps to reduce the overall carbon footprint, but also improves production efficiency and sustainability, thereby maintaining the competitiveness of the enterprise while reducing environmental impact.

[0097] Further design also includes the establishment of marginal carbon footprint to quantify the coupling relationship between quality indicators and carbon footprints of each link. The calculation formula is as follows:

[0098]

[0099] In the formula, MC k represents the marginal carbon footprint, Represents the total carbon emissions C U is the load power P k The partial derivative of , T is the transformer grid operation time, λ is the average load rate, E e Indicates the energy consumption of the transformer.

[0100] The above technical solution is explained as follows: Through the establishment of the above marginal carbon footprint, this method can more effectively monitor and optimize the operation of the transformer to reduce its carbon emissions. By understanding how changes in load power affect carbon emissions, the operating strategy can be adjusted, such as reducing energy consumption during low-load periods, or optimizing the design of the transformer to improve energy efficiency. This not only helps to reduce environmental impact, but is also an important step in achieving sustainable development goals. Through this method, companies can better manage their carbon emissions while improving operational efficiency and cost-effectiveness.

[0101] In this embodiment, the carbon footprint of the distribution transformer over its entire life cycle is evaluated based on the life cycle assessment method (LCA) and IPCC theory in combination with the geographic information system (GIS), as follows:

[0102] First, geographic information system (GIS) integration, which integrates the four stages of life cycle assessment with the GIS and uses GIS technology to perform spatial analysis on all input and output data of distribution transformers during their production life cycle;

[0103] Secondly, complete the real-time carbon data accounting, record the carbon emission data corresponding to the initial carbon data in real time, and match the preset multiples of the carbon conversion rate extreme value to determine the distribution transformer to be accounted for and its carbon monitoring attributes; use GIS technology to perform spatial analysis on all input and output data of the distribution transformer during the production life cycle;

[0104] The specific calculation formula is as follows:

[0105]

[0106] Among them: CF GHG Indicates the carbon footprint of a distribution transformer or a part of a distribution transformer Unit: kgCO2e / functional unit, activity data i Represents the GHG emission and removal related data of the ith activity in each functional unit within the system boundary. The unit is determined according to the specific emission source; emission factor i,j GWP represents the emission coefficient of greenhouse gas j corresponding to the i-th activity, and the unit matches the GHG activity data; j Represents the global warming potential (GWP) of greenhouse gas j, updated according to the latest data provided by the IPCC.

[0107] The above technical solution is explained as follows: By integrating the geographic information system (GIS) with the four stages of life cycle assessment (LCA), this method can accurately analyze the carbon emissions of distribution transformers during their production life cycle, which not only improves the accessibility of data and the efficiency of analysis, but also makes the spatial distribution of carbon emission data more intuitive through the application of GIS technology, which helps to identify and optimize the key links of carbon emissions. The realization of real-time carbon data accounting makes the monitoring and management of carbon emissions more timely and accurate. By recording the carbon emission data corresponding to the initial carbon data in real time and matching the preset multiples of the carbon conversion rate, the carbon emissions of distribution transformers can be dynamically monitored, thus providing a scientific basis for the formulation of emission reduction strategies. In addition, the calculation formula used in this method comprehensively considers activity data, emission factors and global warming potential (GWP), which makes the calculation of carbon footprint more comprehensive and scientific. By using the latest GWP data provided by the IPCC, the accuracy and timeliness of the calculation results are ensured, which helps enterprises make more effective decisions in responding to climate change and achieving sustainable development goals.

[0108] In this embodiment, a carbon footprint prediction model is also established, including the following steps:

[0109] First, the carbon emissions of the raw material acquisition and pretreatment modules are calculated as follows:

[0110]

[0111] in, Represents the carbon emissions of the i-th raw material acquisition and pretreatment stage in the production process of distribution transformers, unit: tCO2e,M i It represents the estimated usage of the i-th raw material in the production process of distribution transformers, unit: t, It represents the unit carbon emission coefficient of the acquisition and pretreatment of the i-th raw material in the production process of distribution transformers, unit: tCO2e / unit raw material; Indicates the carbon emissions during the material transportation process;

[0112] The calculation formula is: EF t,i represents the carbon emission factor of transport mode i, D i Indicates the transportation distance of raw materials (unit: kilometers, km), represents the additional carbon emissions during the pre-processing of raw materials;

[0113] The above technical solution is explained as follows: By calculating in detail the carbon emissions in the raw material acquisition and pretreatment stages during the production process of distribution transformers, a scientific basis is provided for accurately evaluating and managing the carbon footprint of the entire production process. By comprehensively considering the expected use of raw materials, unit carbon emission coefficient, carbon emissions in the transportation process, and additional carbon emissions in the pretreatment process, the formula can comprehensively reflect the carbon emissions in the raw material acquisition and pretreatment stages. The implementation of the above method helps companies make more environmentally friendly decisions on raw material selection and transportation methods. For example, by selecting raw materials with a lower unit carbon emission coefficient or adopting a more environmentally friendly transportation method, the carbon emissions of the entire production process can be effectively reduced.

[0114] The calculation example is as follows:

[0115] For a metal raw material, the expected usage is 100 tons, the unit carbon emission coefficient of its acquisition and pretreatment is 0.5 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent / ton, the transportation distance is 200km, and road transportation is used. The carbon emission factor of road transportation is 0.1 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent / km·t. The electricity consumed in the pretreatment process is 1000 kWh, and the carbon emission factor of electricity is 0.5 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent / kWh. The carbon emissions of the metal raw material acquisition and pretreatment stage are:

[0116]

[0117] Secondly, calculate the carbon emissions during the production and manufacturing stage. The carbon emissions calculation formula is:

[0118]

[0119] in, represents the carbon emissions generated by energy consumption in the manufacturing stage of distribution transformers, j represents the energy type, P j Indicates the power of energy (unit: for example, kilowatt, kW), t j Indicates the energy usage time (unit: hours, h), EF j represents the carbon emission factor of the j-th energy (unit: tCO2e / kWh or tCO2e / unit of energy);

[0120] The above technical solution is explained as follows: Calculate the carbon emissions generated by energy consumption during the production and manufacturing stage of the distribution transformer. By combining the power, usage time and corresponding carbon emission factors of different energy types, this formula can accurately quantify the carbon footprint of the production process.

[0121] For the carbon emissions from chemical reactions in the production process of distribution transformers, assuming that there are n chemical reactions in the production process of distribution transformers, the carbon emissions calculation formula for the kth chemical reaction is: in, represents the carbon emission produced by the kth chemical reaction, R k Indicates the amount of substance involved in the kth chemical reaction (unit: mole, mol), CF k The carbon emission coefficient of the chemical reaction (unit: tCO2e / mol) is expressed as follows:

[0122]

[0123] The calculation example is as follows: In the production process of distribution transformers, the power used is 500kW, the operating time is 10 hours, and the carbon emission factor of electricity is 0.5 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent / kWh. At the same time, there is a chemical reaction, the amount of substances involved in the reaction is 500 mol, and the carbon emission factor of the chemical reaction is 0.05 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent / mol. The carbon emissions in the production stage are: Energy consumption carbon emissions: Carbon emissions from chemical reactions: Total carbon emissions of manufacturing module: E man =2500+25=2525tCO2e.

[0124] Further design also includes calculation of carbon emissions during the assembly of distribution transformers:

[0125] Assume that the time required to assemble a distribution transformer is t a , the power of the assembly equipment is P a ,The carbon emission of auxiliary materials during the assembly process is The carbon emission calculation formula of the distribution transformer assembly module is:

[0126]

[0127] Among them, E ass represents the carbon emissions of the distribution transformer assembly module, EF a represents the carbon emission factor of the energy of distribution transformer assembly (unit: tCO2e / kWh or tCO2e / unit of energy). For the distribution transformer packaging, the type and quantity of packaging materials, as well as the energy consumption in the packaging process are considered; let the amount of the i-th packaging material used be N i , the carbon emission per unit of packaging material is CF p,i , the energy consumption in the packaging process is The carbon emissions calculation formula for the product packaging module is:

[0128]

[0129] The total carbon emissions of the distribution transformer assembly and packaging module are:

[0130] E ap =E ass +E pach

[0131] The calculation example is as follows:

[0132] Assuming that the assembly time of the distribution transformer is 2 hours, the power of the assembly equipment is 100kW, the energy carbon emission factor is 0.5 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent / kWh, the carbon emission of auxiliary materials used in the assembly process is 50 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, 1,000 pieces of a packaging material are used, the carbon emission per unit packaging material is 0.01 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, 500 kWh of electricity is consumed in the packaging process, and the electricity carbon emission factor is 0.5 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent / kWh, then the total carbon emission of the distribution transformer assembly and packaging module is:

[0133] E ass =100×2×0.5+50=100+50=150tCO2e. Packaging carbon emissions: E p ack=1000×0.01+500×0.5=10+250=260tCO2e. Total carbon emissions from assembly and packaging: E ap =150+260=410tCO2e.

[0134] The above technical solution is explained as follows: By calculating the carbon emissions of distribution transformers in detail during the assembly and packaging process, it is helpful for enterprises to take more environmentally friendly measures in product design and manufacturing, thereby reducing the impact on the environment. By accurately calculating the energy consumption and carbon emissions of auxiliary materials during the assembly process, enterprises can identify and optimize high-energy consumption and high-emission production links. For example, enterprises can choose more efficient assembly equipment, reduce assembly time, or use low-carbon emission auxiliary materials, thereby reducing the carbon emissions of assembly modules. Similarly, by considering the type and quantity of packaging materials and the energy consumption in the packaging process, enterprises can optimize packaging design, reduce unnecessary use of packaging materials, select more environmentally friendly packaging materials, and improve the energy efficiency of the packaging process, thereby reducing the carbon emissions of packaging modules.

[0135] In summary, the total carbon footprint AC estimation formula for the distribution transformer production process is:

[0136]

[0137] Among them, E other Indicates other possible sources of carbon emissions;

[0138] Building a predictive model:

[0139] Taking the total carbon footprint CF as the dependent variable and the carbon emission factors of each production link as the independent variable, a prediction model is established, and the calculation formula is as follows;

[0140]

[0141] Among them, β0 is the intercept term, β i is the regression coefficient of the ith independent variable, X i is the value of the i-th independent variable, ∈ is the error term, and the value of the regression coefficient is determined by performing regression analysis on historical data.

[0142] The above technical solution is explained as follows: to verify and optimize the established prediction model, the historical data can be divided into a training set and a test set, the model can be trained using the training set data, and then the prediction performance of the model can be evaluated using the test set data. The prediction accuracy and reliability of the model can be improved by adjusting the structure and parameters of the model or using different algorithms. The expected production plan data (such as product output, production cycle, raw material procurement plan, etc.) is substituted into the established prediction model to calculate the carbon footprint prediction value of the distribution transformer production process;

[0143] Analyze the prediction results, evaluate the main sources and contribution ratios of carbon emissions, and determine which factors have a greater impact on carbon footprints through sensitivity analysis, so as to provide key focus for the formulation of energy-saving and emission reduction measures. For example, calculate the proportion of carbon emissions in each production link to the total carbon footprint, and find out the links with higher carbon emissions. If it is found that the carbon emissions in the raw material acquisition and pretreatment stages account for a large proportion, it can be further analyzed which raw materials have more prominent carbon emission problems, whether the transportation distance is too long or the energy consumption of the raw material acquisition process itself is too high, so as to take targeted measures, such as optimizing raw material procurement channels, selecting closer suppliers, or adopting more environmentally friendly raw material pretreatment processes. According to the prediction results and analysis conclusions, formulate corresponding energy-saving and emission reduction strategies and plans. Starting from energy management, production process improvement, raw material selection, etc., specific emission reduction measures and goals can be proposed, and the carbon footprint reduction effect after the implementation of these measures can be estimated. Through the above innovative carbon footprint prediction method, it can provide distribution transformer manufacturers with more accurate and comprehensive carbon emission prediction information, help enterprises fully consider carbon emission factors in the production decision-making process, take effective measures to reduce carbon footprints, and achieve sustainable development goals.

[0144] While the embodiments of the present invention have been shown and described, it will be apparent to those skilled in the art that the scope of the present invention is defined by the appended claims and their equivalents.

Claims

1. A power grid material carbon footprint evaluation system, characterized in that: include: A calculation module, used to calculate the carbon footprint of the production process by analyzing the production process of the distribution transformer; A modeling module is used to establish a carbon footprint calculation model and a carbon footprint prediction model for distribution transformers based on the carbon footprint of the production process calculated by the calculation module in accordance with ISO14064, ISO14067 and PAS2050 standards; A generation module, used for calculating a typical value of the carbon footprint of the distribution transformer based on a carbon footprint calculation model, and for predicting the carbon footprint based on a carbon footprint prediction model; The evaluation module is used to evaluate and grade the carbon footprint of distribution transformers after calculating and predicting the carbon footprint.

2. A power grid material carbon footprint evaluation system according to claim 1, characterized in that: The calculation formula of the carbon footprint calculation model is as follows: In the formula, C YA is the total carbon emissions, M Y-i Refers to the amount of raw materials used in the distribution transformer in year i, R Y-i refers to the carbon emission factor of raw materials in year i, D Y-i It refers to the carbon emission factor of the production process of distribution transformers in the i-th year, T Y-i refers to the duration of production in the i-th year, NF i Refers to the amount of other materials used in the production process, EF i Refers to the carbon emission factors of other materials, WD i Refers to the amount of waste generated during the production process, D W-i WD i Output rate, T W-i WD i The output time, W i refers to the amount of energy, RR i It means W i The emission reduction factor, Q i W i The efficiency factor of After calculating the carbon footprint of distribution transformers, the carbon footprint is quantitatively graded and the specific calculation formula for the carbon efficiency of material production is established as follows: In the formula, PCER is the production carbon efficiency ratio, k p and k u is the weight coefficient, C P represents the carbon footprint of the production stage, C U represents the carbon footprint of the use phase, G is the total output, represents the square of Mahalanobis distance, X is the observation vector, μ is the mean vector, W is the weight matrix, ∑ is the covariance matrix, Sc x For the score, is the square of the Mahalanobis distance of the x-th observation, and are the minimum and maximum squared Mahalanobis distances among all observations, respectively.

3. A power grid material carbon footprint evaluation system according to claim 2, characterized in that: This includes classifying the carbon footprint calculation results and selecting a set of processes with large carbon emissions. The formula is as follows: In the formula, X represents each process, n is the number of processes in the set, and K represents the average carbon emissions. N is the carbon emission of the nth production process, N is the number of processes with the largest carbon emission in the set, θ' is the carbon emission adjustment coefficient, and m1 and m2 represent the carbon emissions of two different processes.

4. A power grid material carbon footprint evaluation system according to claim 3, characterized in that: It also includes the establishment of marginal carbon footprint, which is used to quantify the coupling relationship between quality indicators and carbon footprints of each link. The calculation formula is as follows: In the formula, MC k represents the marginal carbon footprint, Indicates the total carbon emissions C U is the load power P k The partial derivative of , T is the transformer grid operation time, λ is the average load rate, E e Indicates the energy consumption of the transformer.

5. A power grid material carbon footprint evaluation system according to claim 4, characterized in that: It also includes the evaluation of the carbon footprint of the distribution transformer throughout its life cycle based on the life cycle assessment method (LCA) and IPCC theory, combined with the geographic information system (GIS), as follows: First, geographic information system (GIS) integration, which integrates the four stages of life cycle assessment with the GIS and uses GIS technology to perform spatial analysis on all input and output data of distribution transformers during their production life cycle; Secondly, complete the real-time carbon data accounting, record the carbon emission data corresponding to the initial carbon data in real time, and match the preset multiples of the carbon conversion rate extreme value to determine the distribution transformer to be accounted for and its carbon monitoring attributes; use GIS technology to perform spatial analysis on all input and output data of the distribution transformer during the production life cycle; The specific calculation formula is as follows: Among them: CF GHG Indicates the carbon footprint of a distribution transformer or a part of a distribution transformer Unit: kgOC2e / functional unit, activity data i Represents the GHG emission and removal related data of the ith activity in each functional unit within the system boundary. The unit is determined according to the specific emission source; emission factor i,j GWP represents the emission coefficient of greenhouse gas j corresponding to the i-th activity, and the unit matches the GHG activity data; j Represents the global warming potential (GWP) of greenhouse gas j, updated according to the latest data provided by the IPCC.

6. A power grid material carbon footprint evaluation system according to claim 5, characterized in that: The carbon footprint prediction model is established, comprising the following steps: First, the carbon emissions of the raw material acquisition and pretreatment modules are calculated as follows: in, Represents the carbon emissions of the i-th raw material acquisition and pretreatment stage in the production process of distribution transformers, unit: tCO2e,M i It represents the estimated usage of the i-th raw material in the production process of distribution transformers, unit: t, It represents the unit carbon emission coefficient of the acquisition and pretreatment of the i-th raw material in the production process of distribution transformers, unit: tCO2e / unit raw material; Indicates the carbon emissions during the material transportation process; The calculation formula is: represents the carbon emission factor of transport mode i, D i Indicates the transportation distance of raw materials (unit: kilometers, km), represents the additional carbon emissions during the pre-processing of raw materials; Secondly, calculate the carbon emissions during the production and manufacturing stage. The carbon emissions calculation formula is: in, represents the carbon emissions generated by energy consumption in the manufacturing stage of distribution transformers, j represents the energy type, P j Indicates the power of energy (unit: for example, kilowatt, kW), t j Indicates the energy usage time (unit: hours, h), EF j represents the carbon emission factor of the j-th energy (unit: tCO2e / kWh or tCO2e / unit of energy); For the carbon emissions from chemical reactions in the production process of distribution transformers, assuming that there are n chemical reactions in the production process of distribution transformers, the carbon emissions calculation formula for the kth chemical reaction is: in, represents the carbon emission produced by the kth chemical reaction, R k Indicates the amount of substance involved in the kth chemical reaction (unit: mole, mol), CF k The carbon emission coefficient of the chemical reaction (unit: tCO2e / mol) is expressed as follows: Calculate the carbon emissions during the assembly of distribution transformers: Assume that the time required to assemble a distribution transformer is t a, The power of the assembled equipment is P a, The carbon emissions of auxiliary materials during assembly are The carbon emission calculation formula of the distribution transformer assembly module is: Among them, E ass represents the carbon emissions of the distribution transformer assembly module, EF a represents the carbon emission factor of the energy of distribution transformer assembly (unit: tCO2e / kWh or tCO2e / unit of energy). For the distribution transformer packaging, the type and quantity of packaging materials, as well as the energy consumption in the packaging process are considered; let the amount of the i-th packaging material used be N i , the carbon emission per unit of packaging material is CF p,i , the energy consumption in the packaging process is The carbon emissions calculation formula for the product packaging module is: The total carbon emissions of the distribution transformer assembly and packaging module are: AND ap =And ass +E pack The total carbon footprint AC estimation formula for the distribution transformer production process is: Among them, E other Indicates other possible sources of carbon emissions; Building a predictive model: Taking the total carbon footprint CF as the dependent variable and the carbon emission factors of each production link as the independent variable, a prediction model is established, and the calculation formula is as follows; Among them, β0 is the intercept term, β i is the regression coefficient of the ith independent variable, X i is the value of the i-th independent variable, ∈ is the error term, and the value of the regression coefficient is determined by performing regression analysis on historical data.

Images