Industrial park construction optimization method for carbon neutralization

Abstract

The invention discloses a carbon neutralization-oriented industrial park construction optimization method, which comprises the following steps: dividing an industrial park into five types, determining main emission sources and emission factors of different types of industrial parks, and carrying out carbon emission calculation; constructing low-carbon construction technology path index systems of different types of industrial parks by applying a Delphi method and an analytic hierarchy process, and calculating index weights; a suitable industrial park carbon emission reduction technical path is screened by taking carbon reduction amount and carbon reduction cost as a carbon reduction target. According to the method, the problems of unclear steps and fuzzy evaluation effect during low-carbon construction of the industrial park are effectively solved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of carbon-neutral industrial park construction, and specifically to an industrial park construction optimization method for carbon neutrality. Background Art

[0002] At present, climate change and energy crisis are key constraints on human sustainable development, and energy conservation, emission reduction and green development have become a global consensus. As a booster for my country's economic development, industrial parks are the key source of carbon emissions. From an energy perspective, industrial parks account for 69% of the country's energy consumption, and their carbon emissions account for 31% of the country's total carbon emissions; from the perspective of people's livelihood and development, more than 90% of urban residents work and live in industrial parks, more than 80% of GDP and more than 90% of innovation are generated in industrial parks, and various types of industrial parks, represented by industrial parks, have developed rapidly and have become an important platform for promoting my country's industrialization, urbanization and high-quality development of regional economy. Therefore, industrial parks are an important starting point and natural test field for implementing my country's "dual carbon" strategy, and they bear a huge task of energy conservation and carbon reduction.

[0003] In terms of building low-carbon industrial parks, the focus of relevant work and implementation steps in various places are not clear, especially in how to evaluate the effect of low-carbon industrial park construction. It is difficult to truly build low-carbon parks from a systematic and holistic perspective, and it is impossible to analyze indicators such as energy, construction, industry, and operation management to achieve green zero-carbon development of parks in different locations, industries, and systems. For example, CN 110472842 A discloses a method for constructing an evaluation index system for near-zero carbon emission parks. Although its construction satisfies the state variable weight vector of normalization and obtains a variable weight model, it can complete the construction of a dynamic near-zero carbon emission park comprehensive evaluation index system; however, the industrial structure, user needs, park characteristics, etc. of different types of industrial parks are not the same. The invention does not divide and identify the types of industrial parks, resulting in different types of industrial parks facing the problem of unclear low-carbon construction steps and vague evaluation effects when carrying out low-carbon construction. Another example is CN 118569689 A, which discloses a low-carbon high-quality development evaluation method that is adaptive to regional characteristics and sample characteristics. Although the initial indicator system for low-carbon high-quality development evaluation is constructed, and the low-carbon high-quality development index of the enterprise to be evaluated is calculated based on the score value of each indicator and the final weight; however, when constructing the evaluation indicator system, the invention artificially selects indicators at multiple levels and does not make secondary corrections and improvements. The subjectivity in the selection of indicators is strong, resulting in insufficient coverage and scope of application of the indicators. In addition, in the process of low-carbon construction of different types of industrial parks, the promotion and application of their low-carbon technologies generally involve mutual reference and imitation, resulting in unclear low-carbon construction steps and vague evaluation results.

[0004] Therefore, how to solve the problem of objective evaluation of different types of industrial parks during the low-carbon construction process is a technical problem that needs to be solved urgently in this field. Summary of the invention

[0005] In view of the above-mentioned deficiencies in the prior art, the purpose of the present invention is to provide an industrial park construction optimization method oriented towards carbon neutrality, so as to solve the problem that different types of industrial parks lack an objective evaluation method during the low-carbon construction process.

[0006] To achieve the above purpose, the present invention adopts the following technical solutions:

[0007] A method for optimizing the construction of an industrial park towards carbon neutrality, characterized in that it comprises the following steps:

[0008] (1) Determination of industrial park type: When carrying out low-carbon construction of industrial parks, determine their needs and functions and accurately identify the park type;

[0009] (2) Industrial park carbon emission accounting: For different types of industrial parks, the main emission sources and emission factors are determined and carbon emission accounting is performed; the emission sources include industry, energy, construction, transportation, life and carbon sink;

[0010] (3) Construction of the indicator system: Based on the carbon emission sources of industrial parks, the Delphi method is used to conduct expert consultation on different types of industrial parks, select key indicators for the construction of low-carbon industrial parks, and construct an indicator system for the technical path of low-carbon construction of different types of industrial parks;

[0011] (4) Calculation and verification of indicator weights: Based on the indicator system of low-carbon construction technology paths for different types of industrial parks, the hierarchical structure model and judgment matrix of indicators at all levels are established using the analytic hierarchy process, and the weights of each indicator are calculated and consistency tested;

[0012] (5) Screening of carbon emission reduction technology paths: Combined with the indicator weight coefficients obtained in step (4), the carbon reduction amount and carbon reduction cost of the carbon emission reduction technology paths in the low-carbon park construction technology package are calculated to screen out suitable carbon emission reduction technology paths for the park.

[0013] Furthermore, the step (2) adopts the emission inventory method to calculate the carbon emissions of the industrial park: first, the production and living activities that will lead to major greenhouse gas emissions are sorted and counted, and then the greenhouse gas emissions are calculated and analyzed based on the data table. The basic calculation method is: the carbon emissions are calculated by multiplying the activity level and the emission factor.

[0014] Furthermore, the specific processing steps of the Delphi method in step (3) include:

[0015] 3.1 Expert Selection

[0016] In order to ensure the professionalism of this method, it is necessary to establish expert selection principles, including but not limited to: (A) having 3 years or more of work experience in carbon neutrality and carbon peak-related affairs; (B) more than 90% of experts have associate senior titles or above, and less than 10% of experts have intermediate titles; (C) being interested in the research project and actively completing two rounds of consultation;

[0017] 3.2 Consultation Process

[0018] Based on the previous literature research and data compilation, the technical path indicators of the low-carbon park construction technology package in step (5) were used to preliminarily establish the low-carbon construction technology path indicators for different types of industrial parks. The first round of expert consultation questionnaires were prepared using the "Wenjuanxing" platform and sent by email. The consultation content mainly included the importance, judgment basis and familiarity of the indicators. The importance evaluation was divided into five evaluation levels: very important (5 points), general (3 points), unimportant (2 points), and very unimportant (1 point). After each level of indicators, "modification opinions" were set for experts to increase or decrease the proposed indicators. The judgment basis was divided into theoretical analysis, practical experience, peer understanding and intuitive judgment. The familiarity was divided into five evaluation levels: very familiar (1.0), relatively familiar (0.75), generally familiar (0.50), not very familiar (0.25), and very unfamiliar (0.0).

[0019] According to the results of the first round of consultation, the second round of consultation questionnaire was formed based on the comprehensive indicator screening standards and expert revision opinions. After two rounds of consultation, if the expert opinions were basically consistent after statistical analysis, the questionnaire was terminated to form the final low-carbon construction technology path indicator system for different types of industrial parks.

[0020] 3.3 Evaluation coefficient

[0021] 3.1.1 Expert positivity coefficient

[0022] Expert positivity coefficient = number of questionnaires collected in a certain round / number of questionnaires distributed in a certain round, that is, the effective recovery rate of the questionnaire (%). A recovery rate greater than 70% indicates that the experts are highly motivated;

[0023] 3.1.2 Expert authority

[0024] Expert authority (Cr) comes from the expert's self-evaluation, including familiarity (Cs) and judgment basis (Ca); calculation formula: Cr = (Ca + Cs) / 2, generally, if the expert authority coefficient is greater than 0.7, the result is considered reliable;

[0025] 3.1.3 Degree of coordination of expert opinions

[0026] The coordination degree of expert opinions indicates the degree of consensus and concentration on all indicators, which is usually determined by the coefficient of variation (CV) and Kendall's coordination coefficient (W). The coefficient of variation (CV) indicates the coordination degree of experts on the relative importance and rationality of a certain indicator. The smaller the coefficient, the higher the coordination degree among experts. The calculation formula is: CV = standard deviation / mean deviation. It is generally considered that CV < 0.25 is an acceptable indicator. Kendall's coordination coefficient (W) is used to test the consistency of experts' scoring results on questionnaire indicators. The value of W is between 0 and 1. Under normal circumstances: Kendall's coordination coefficient < 0.2 indicates that the degree of consistency is poor; between 0.2 and 0.4 indicates that the degree of consistency is general; between 0.4 and 0.6 indicates that the degree of consistency is medium; between 0.6 and 0.8 indicates that the degree of consistency is strong; between 0.8 and 1.0 indicates that the degree of consistency is very strong. The larger the W value, the higher the degree of coordination of experts' scoring, and the more consistent the expert opinions are. Statistical analysis was performed using IBM SPSS Statistics 26.0 to obtain the arithmetic mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variation (CV) and Kendall's coordination coefficient (W) of the indicator scores.

[0027] Furthermore, the specific processing steps of the hierarchical analysis method in step (4) specifically include:

[0028] 4.1 Establishing a hierarchical model

[0029] A hierarchical structure model was established based on the indicators obtained from the Delphi expert consultation: the overall goal of the hierarchical analysis was set, that is, the low-carbon construction technology path of different types of industrial parks, under which six calibers, including industry, energy, construction, transportation, life, and carbon sink, were set as first-level indicators; secondly, second-level indicators were set according to the affiliation relationship to form a comprehensive multi-level evaluation indicator system;

[0030] 4.2 Constructing the Judgment Matrix

[0031] Based on the hierarchical structure model, the first-level indicator judgment matrix and the second-level indicator judgment matrix were constructed. Experts were invited to use the Saaty 1-9 scaling method to compare the indicators in the matrix pairwise. After summarizing the scoring table, the geometric mean of each scale was calculated to construct the final judgment matrix.

[0032] 4.3 Calculate the indicator weight value

[0033] 4.3.1 Calculation of eigenvector W i ′ ,have

[0034]

[0035] Where: a i,j is the scale value of the i-th row and j-th column; m is the total number of indicators;

[0036] 4.3.2 Calculating the weight W i ,have

[0037]

[0038] 4.4 Consistency Verification

[0039] 4.4.1 Calculation of the maximum eigenvalue λ max ,have

[0040]

[0041] Where: is vector B w The i-th component;

[0042] 4.4.2 Consistency Check

[0043]

[0044] Where: CI is the calculation consistency index; RI is the average random consistency index; CR is the consistency ratio. When CR≤0.1, the consistency test passes. When CR>0.1, it fails, indicating that there is a logical error in the judgment matrix and it needs to be adjusted and calculated again.

[0045] Furthermore, the low-carbon park construction technology package in step (5) is:

[0046] Table 1 Low-carbon Park Construction Technology Package

[0047]

[0048] Among them, the carbon reduction amount and carbon reduction cost of the carbon reduction technology path are calculated in the low-carbon park construction technology package. The calculation formulas for carbon reduction amount and carbon reduction cost are:

[0049] ER i =ES i ×EF e ×EA

[0050] Where: ER i ES is the amount of carbon dioxide reduced by the i technology within the applicable range; i Energy saving brought by the use of i technology; EF e is the CO2 emission factor of the e-th energy source, t / GJ; EA is the total amount of units that can be constructed and used by technology i.

[0051]

[0052] Where: C i,y is the unit emission reduction cost of technology i in year y, 10,000 yuan / t; IC i,yis the investment and maintenance cost of technology i in year y, RMB 10,000; ER i The CO2 emission reduction potential generated by using i technology.

[0053] The calculation parameters in the above formula are calculated based on my country's statistical yearbook data and historical statistical data.

[0054] Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0055] 1. The present invention provides an accurate and refined index selection and weight calculation method: according to the requirements of different types of industrial parks and users, based on the Delphi method, a low-carbon construction technology path index system for different types of industrial parks with strong pertinence and good operability can be constructed to solve the technical problem that the index system is chaotic and does not match the technology path when the industrial park is carrying out low-carbon construction. At the same time, after selecting the low-carbon construction indicators, the hierarchical analysis method is used to calculate the weight coefficient of each indicator, which is convenient for the comprehensive comparison and analysis and selection of carbon emission reduction technology paths to promote carbon emission reduction and resource management.

[0056] 2. The present invention can provide targeted and differentiated carbon emission reduction technology path selection: The present invention combines the emission inventory method, based on the low-carbon construction technology path indicator system, with carbon reduction amount and carbon reduction cost as carbon reduction goals, and selects carbon emission reduction technology paths suitable for different types of industrial parks according to different calibers and technical directions, to solve the common problems of mutual reference and imitation when industrial parks apply low-carbon technologies, and at the same time facilitate the evaluation of the low-carbon construction effects of industrial parks.

[0057] 3. In response to the urgent need for the construction of low-carbon industrial parks, the present invention constructs an industrial park construction optimization method for carbon neutrality, provides strong technical support for the construction of low-carbon industrial parks, and promotes the green and sustainable development of industrial parks. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0058] Figure 1 It is a flow chart of the industrial park construction optimization method provided by the present invention;

[0059] Figure 2 It is a process principle diagram of the industrial park construction optimization method provided by the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0060] In order to make the purpose, technical scheme and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, rather than all the embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art without making creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0061] like Figure 1 As shown, a method for optimizing the construction of a carbon-neutral industrial park includes the following steps:

[0062] (1) Determination of industrial park type: When carrying out low-carbon construction of industrial parks, determine their needs and functions and accurately identify the park type;

[0063] (2) Industrial park carbon emission accounting: For different types of industrial parks, the main emission sources and emission factors are determined and carbon emission accounting is performed; the emission sources include industry, energy, construction, transportation, life and carbon sink;

[0064] (3) Construction of the indicator system: Based on the carbon emission sources of industrial parks, the Delphi method is used to conduct expert consultation on different types of industrial parks, select key indicators for the construction of low-carbon industrial parks, and construct an indicator system for the technical path of low-carbon construction of different types of industrial parks;

[0065] (4) Calculation and verification of indicator weights: Based on the indicator system of low-carbon construction technology paths for different types of industrial parks, the hierarchical structure model and judgment matrix of indicators at all levels are established using the analytic hierarchy process, and the weights of each indicator are calculated and consistency tested;

[0066] (5) Screening of carbon emission reduction technology paths: Combined with the indicator weight coefficients obtained in step (4), the carbon reduction amount and carbon reduction cost of the carbon emission reduction technology paths in the low-carbon park construction technology package are calculated to screen out suitable carbon emission reduction technology paths for the park.

[0067] Among them, in step (1), based on the type of industrial park that needs to be low-carbon constructed, the user should first obtain the construction planning scheme of the industrial park, clarify the construction contents such as the park positioning, industry selection, and spatial layout, so as to identify the type of the industrial park.

[0068] See also Figure 2 , the present invention divides industrial parks into the following types: industrial manufacturing parks, logistics and warehousing parks, business and office parks, special functional parks and industrial-city integration parks. The main emission sources and emission factors of different types of industrial parks are determined from the six perspectives of industry, energy, construction, transportation, life and carbon sink, and the emission inventory method is used to calculate the carbon emissions of industrial parks; the Delphi method and hierarchical analysis method are used to construct a low-carbon construction technology path indicator system for different types of industrial parks and calculate the indicator weights; with carbon reduction amount and carbon reduction cost as carbon reduction targets, the appropriate industrial park carbon reduction technology path is selected from the 17 technical path indicators contained in the above six perspectives, which effectively solves the problems of unclear steps and vague evaluation effects when low-carbon construction of industrial parks.

[0069] in,

[0070] A1: Industrial manufacturing park: an area planned and established by the government or enterprises to achieve industrial development goals, with relatively independent functions and relatively complete public facilities, gathering industrial industries and related formats, and implementing unified and standardized management; the main buildings are mainly workshops and factories;

[0071] A2: Logistics and warehousing park: In order to realize the intensification of logistics facilities and the commonality of logistics operations, it is built in a centralized manner and managed by a unified entity in accordance with the requirements of the reasonable layout of urban space, and a logistics industry cluster area that provides logistics infrastructure and public services for many enterprises; the park includes logistics centers, distribution centers, transportation hub facilities, transportation organization and management centers, and logistics information centers, as well as logistics infrastructure that meets the needs of urban logistics management and operations; the main buildings are mostly warehouses;

[0072] A3: Business and office parks: They are mainly business and office parks, attracting small and medium-sized enterprises and functional units of large enterprises to settle in, forming a certain industrial cluster and scale effect. The forms include office areas, business single-family houses, R&D centers, shopping malls, exhibitions, cultural centers, etc., and provide many spaces for work, dining, rest, training, entertainment, fitness, medical treatment, exhibition, etc.

[0073] A4: Specialized functional parks: Parks designed and built for specific industries or functions usually gather a series of related enterprises and institutions, including campuses, hospitals, scenic spots, venues and other specialized scene parks, which respectively carry multiple functions such as education, medical care, tourism, culture, etc., and have rich business formats;

[0074] A5: Industrial-city integration park: Based on the development of traditional industries, it takes characteristic industries with regional characteristics as the mainstay, integrates municipal, transportation, community and other functions, fully meets the material and spiritual needs of residents, and realizes a functional complex park space that promotes the development of residents' lives, ecological protection, and industrial integration, including economic and technological development zones, high-tech development zones, characteristic towns, industrial new towns, etc.

[0075] Example 1

[0076] To further illustrate the applicability of the present invention to the optimization of low-carbon construction methods for different types of industrial parks, this embodiment takes the low-carbon construction of a certain industrial park as an example. However, it should be known that the present invention is not limited to a certain type of industrial park, but is targeted at the five types of industrial parks mentioned in this article.

[0077] This embodiment is described by taking an industrial manufacturing park as an example. The industrial park is located in East China, with convenient transportation and obvious location advantages. The leading industries are mainly traditional industries, including textiles, food processing, high-end chemicals, etc. At the same time, it vigorously cultivates emerging industries, including biomedicine, medical devices, new energy, etc. Based on the construction content, the industrial park is identified as an industrial manufacturing park.

[0078] Among them, the carbon emission accounting of the industrial park in step (2) is to determine the main emission sources and emission factors of the industrial park before performing carbon emission accounting for the industrial park. For this embodiment, the industrial manufacturing park is mainly based on industrial production, and the main buildings are mainly workshops and factories. Its main emission sources and emission factors specifically include:

[0079] (1) Industry: chemical, metal, electronic and other industrial processes, as well as waste emissions. On the one hand, there are carbon emissions from fuel combustion, including the combustion of various fuels such as coal and gasoline, carbon emissions from thermal power, hydropower, wind power, photovoltaic power generation, and carbon emissions from alternative fuels such as hydrogen fuel and e-fuel (synthetic fuel); on the other hand, there are carbon emissions from specific chemical reactions in the process, such as the reaction of chemical reagents and solvents in the textile printing and dyeing process.

[0080] (2) Energy: carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion, purchased electricity, indirect heat emissions, and industrial process emissions. Among them, coal emissions mainly come from thermal power generation and steel production, gasoline and diesel emissions mainly come from transportation fuels such as trains and cars used for production and transportation, electricity emissions mainly come from park air-conditioning systems, lighting power consumption, electric water heaters and elevators and other comprehensive service systems, as well as industrial electricity, and gas emissions mainly come from heating, domestic hot water, processes, etc.

[0081] (3) Transportation: Transportation emissions of products and raw materials on roads, rails, pipelines, shipping, and other processes, including carbon emissions from the movement of people in the park. Generally speaking, the emissions from trucks, private cars, and official cars in the park account for a large proportion, while the emissions from taxis, buses, and motorcycles account for a relatively small proportion. It should be made clear that different parks are affected by factors such as land use layout, travel structure, transportation network, and travel awareness, and the specific sources of transportation carbon emissions will also be different.

[0082] (4) Construction: direct carbon emissions from the production and transportation of building materials and textile production processes used in buildings within the park, as well as indirect carbon emissions from power supply and heating in workshops, factories, warehouses and other buildings. Among them, indirect carbon emissions caused by the power and heat supply of buildings are the main part of construction-related carbon emissions.

[0083] After determining the main emission sources and emission factors, the emission inventory method is used to calculate the carbon emissions of the industrial park. For this embodiment, based on the above main emission sources and emission factors, the carbon emission inventory composition of the industrial manufacturing park is divided as follows:

[0084] (a) Industrial production.

[0085] (b) Consumption of production materials.

[0086] (c) Emissions from instruments and equipment.

[0087] (d) Stationary combustion of fossil fuels.

[0088] (e) Greenhouse gases from electricity and heat production.

[0089] (f) Emissions from mobile sources in transportation.

[0090] (g) Waste disposal.

[0091] (h) Landscape greening carbon sink.

[0092] After obtaining the carbon emission inventory, the following formula is used to calculate the carbon emissions of the park:

[0093] Carbon emissions = activity data × carbon emission factor

[0094] Where:

[0095] Activity data – refers to the volume of production or consumption activities that lead to CO2 emissions, such as the consumption of various fossil fuels;

[0096] Carbon emission factor - a coefficient corresponding to activity level data, including carbon content per unit calorific value or elemental carbon content, oxidation rate, etc., which represents the carbon dioxide emission coefficient per unit of production or consumption activity.

[0097] In terms of data sources, based on the principles of openness, reliability and consistency in the data collection process, this paper uses basic data from public channels. The main data sources include data released by national statistical agencies, such as statistical bulletins, China City Statistical Yearbook, China City Construction Statistical Yearbook, China Energy Statistical Yearbook, and statistical yearbooks published by provincial / city statistical bureaus.

[0098] It should be made clear that when applying, users should formulate specific carbon emission inventories based on actual conditions and should not be limited to the above contents.

[0099] After calculating the carbon emissions of industrial parks, it is necessary to construct a low-carbon construction technology path indicator system for different types of industrial parks. In combination with the carbon emission sources of industrial parks, the Delphi method is used in step (3) to conduct expert consultation on different types of industrial parks. The specific processing steps include:

[0100] 1) Formulate an expert information table: This embodiment assumes that after two rounds of expert consultation, the opinions of the experts are basically consistent after statistical analysis, so the questionnaire is terminated. Based on the expert selection principle mentioned above, a basic information table of the consulting experts is formulated.

[0101] 2) Calculate the evaluation coefficient

[0102] 2.1) Expert positivity coefficient: The first and second round expert positivity coefficients were calculated respectively. If the expert positivity coefficients in both rounds were > 0.7, it was considered that the consulting experts had high enthusiasm and participation in this study.

[0103] 2.2) Expert authority: Based on the expert's self-assessment during the consultation process, the familiarity (Cs) and judgment basis (Ca) are calculated, and the expert authority (Cr) is calculated by Cr = (Ca + Cs) / 2. If Cr>0.7, the consultation result is considered to be reliable.

[0104] 2.3) Degree of consensus of expert opinions: usually determined by the coefficient of variation (CV) and Kendall’s coefficient of consensus (W). Statistical analysis was performed using IBM SPSS Statistics 26.0 to obtain the arithmetic mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variation (CV), and Kendall’s coefficient of consensus (W) of each indicator score.

[0105] 3) Selection of low-carbon indicators: After the first round of expert consultation, the indicators with a coefficient of variation (CV) > 0.25 were deleted, and the indicator system was modified and improved according to the expert opinions. After the second round of consultation, if the Kendall coordination coefficient (W) > 0.4 and the coefficient of variation (CV) of each indicator < 0.25, it is considered that the coordination degree among the experts in this consultation is high and the consistency is strong, so the expert consultation is stopped and the current indicators are retained, and the final low-carbon construction technology path indicator system for different types of industrial parks is obtained.

[0106] Taking into account the subjectivity of the Delphi method, in order to make this embodiment give a clearer description of the present invention, a set of low-carbon construction technology path indicator system for industrial manufacturing parks is compiled in this embodiment in combination with relevant literature and reports (see Table 1 for details) as the final result of the Delphi method to provide a reference for subsequent descriptions.

[0107] Table 1 Low-carbon construction technology path indicator system for industrial manufacturing parks

[0108]

[0109]

[0110] After determining the indicator system, a hierarchical model and a judgment matrix should be established to calculate the weight of each indicator and perform consistency test. Based on the indicator system of low-carbon construction technology paths for different types of industrial parks, step (4) uses the hierarchical analysis method to transform this embodiment into a multi-level, single-objective problem. The specific processing steps include:

[0111] 1) Establishing a hierarchical model: A hierarchical model is established based on the index system obtained from the Delphi expert consultation. For this embodiment, the overall goal of the hierarchical analysis is set, that is, the technical path for low-carbon construction of industrial manufacturing parks, which has a total of 4 calibers (industry, energy, transportation, and construction) as first-level indicators; secondly, the second-level indicators are set according to the affiliation in Table 1 to form a multi-level evaluation index system.

[0112] 2) Constructing a judgment matrix: For this embodiment, based on the hierarchical model, a first-level indicator judgment matrix and four second-level indicator judgment matrices are constructed. Experts are invited to use the Saaty 1-9 scaling method to compare the indicators in the matrix in pairs according to their importance and determine their scale values. After summarizing the scoring tables of the above judgment matrices by each expert, the geometric mean of each scale is calculated to construct the final judgment matrix. See Tables 2 to 6 for details.

[0113] Table 2 First-level indicator judgment matrix

[0114]

[0115] Table 3 Secondary indicator (industry) judgment matrix

[0116]

[0117] Table 4 Secondary indicator (energy) judgment matrix

[0118]

[0119]

[0120] Table 5 Secondary indicator (traffic) judgment matrix

[0121]

[0122] Table 6 Secondary indicator (building) judgment matrix

[0123]

[0124] 3) Calculate the indicator weight value:

[0125] 3.1) Calculate the eigenvector W i ′ ,have

[0126]

[0127] Where: a i,j is the scale value of the i-th row and j-th column; m is the total number of indicators;

[0128] 3.2) Calculate the weight W i ,have

[0129]

[0130] The weights of indicators at all levels are calculated according to the above formula. The higher the weight, the greater the significance of the indicator to the low-carbon construction technology path of industrial manufacturing parks. The weight of each secondary indicator is multiplied by the weight of its primary indicator to obtain its total weight. The weights of each indicator are detailed in Table 7.

[0131] Table 7 Weight values ​​of each indicator

[0132]

[0133] It should be noted that step (4) includes consistency verification, that is, after obtaining the weight values ​​of each indicator, consistency verification needs to be performed according to the following formula:

[0134] 1) Calculate the maximum eigenvalue λ max ,have

[0135]

[0136] Where: is vector B W The i-th component;

[0137] 2)Consistency check

[0138]

[0139] CR=CI / RI

[0140] Where: CI is the calculation consistency index; RI is the average random consistency index; CR is the consistency ratio. When CR≤0.1, the consistency test passes. When CR>0.1, it fails, indicating that there is a logical error in the judgment matrix and it needs to be adjusted and calculated again.

[0141] The consistency ratio (CR) of each indicator is calculated. When CR≤0.1, the indicator consistency test passes. When CR>0.1, it fails, indicating that there is a logical error in the judgment matrix and it needs to be adjusted and calculated again.

[0142] The present invention provides the following three adjustment methods for application:

[0143] 1) Logic correction: Combine the logic rules of pairwise comparison in the Saaty 1-9 scaling method to check whether the size logic of each factor in the matrix is ​​reasonable, and make logical adjustments according to actual needs;

[0144] 2) Proportional correction: Calculate the Hadamard product of the complete consistency matrix and the original judgment matrix (the normalized weight vector of the original judgment matrix is ​​obtained) in proportion, and adjust the correction ratio;

[0145] 3) Perturbation matrix: The combination of consistency matrix and perturbation matrix, and the interval fuzzy number method is used to adjust the maximum value in the perturbation matrix. After repeated adjustments, the matrix meets the satisfactory consistency index.

[0146] After obtaining the indicator system of low-carbon construction technology paths for industrial parks, the indicators at all levels are sorted from high to low according to the weight values, and they are divided into important indicators, secondary important indicators and general indicators. According to the indicator ranking, the construction focus and key elements of low-carbon industrial parks can be clarified, and the construction indicators that need to be planned and considered can be implemented, which can also provide a selection basis for the subsequent screening of carbon emission reduction technology paths.

[0147] Based on the indicator system and weights of the low-carbon construction technology path of the industrial park, step (5) calculates the carbon reduction amount and carbon reduction cost of the carbon emission reduction technology path in the low-carbon industrial park construction technology package, so as to screen out the appropriate carbon emission reduction technology path for the park.

[0148] To make the description clearer, this example combines relevant literature and reports to compile a set of carbon emission reduction technology paths for industrial manufacturing parks. See Table 8 for details.

[0149] Among them, each carbon reduction technology path listed in Table 8 needs to calculate its own carbon reduction amount and carbon reduction cost respectively:

[0150]

[0151] ER i =ES i ×EF e ×EA

[0152] Where: ER i ES is the amount of carbon dioxide reduced by the i technology within the applicable range; i Energy saving brought by the use of i technology; EF e is the CO2 emission factor of the e-th energy source, t / GJ; EA is the total amount of units that can be constructed and used by technology i.

[0153]

[0154] Where: C i,y is the unit emission reduction cost of technology i in year y, 10,000 yuan / t; IC i,y is the investment and maintenance cost of technology i in year y, RMB 10,000; ER i The CO2 emission reduction potential generated by using i technology.

[0155] The calculation parameters in the above formula are calculated based on my country's statistical yearbook data and historical statistical data.

[0156] Table 8 Low-carbon construction technology package for industrial manufacturing parks

[0157]

[0158]

[0159]

[0160]

[0161] After calculating the carbon reduction amount and carbon reduction cost of the technical path, based on the technical path indicator system of low-carbon construction in industrial parks, the carbon reduction effect of the technical path is comprehensively compared, while considering its applicability and economy, so as to screen out the carbon reduction technical path suitable for this industrial park. Starting from the top-level planning and design of the construction of low-carbon industrial parks, the present invention classifies the types and constructs indicators. It is a relatively macro optimization method, and its purpose is to provide a construction idea and optimization method for the construction of low-carbon industrial parks. It should be clear that when applying, users should formulate specific low-carbon construction technology packages according to actual conditions, and should not be limited to the above content.

[0162] In summary, the present invention provides an optimization method for the construction of carbon-neutral industrial parks, provides accurate and refined index selection and weight calculation, and constructs a low-carbon construction technology path index system for different types of industrial parks with strong pertinence and good operability based on the Delphi method according to the requirements of different types of industrial parks and users, which can solve the technical problem that the index system of industrial parks is chaotic and does not match the technology path when carrying out low-carbon construction. At the same time, after selecting the low-carbon construction indicators, the hierarchical analysis method is used to calculate the weight coefficient of each indicator, which is convenient for the comprehensive comparison and analysis and selection of carbon emission reduction technology paths, and can also promote carbon emission reduction and resource management.

[0163] In addition, the present invention can provide targeted and differentiated carbon emission reduction technology path selection, combine the emission inventory method, based on the low-carbon construction technology path indicator system, take the carbon reduction amount and carbon reduction cost as the carbon reduction target, and select carbon emission reduction technology paths suitable for different types of industrial parks according to different calibers and technical directions. It can solve the common problems of mutual reference and imitation when industrial parks apply low-carbon technologies, and facilitate the evaluation of the low-carbon construction effects of industrial parks.

[0164] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention, rather than to limit it. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the aforementioned embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that the technical solutions described in the aforementioned embodiments may still be modified, or some of the technical features may be replaced by equivalents. However, these modifications or replacements do not deviate the essence of the corresponding technical solutions from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for optimizing the construction of an industrial park towards carbon neutrality, characterized in that: The following steps are involved: (1) Determination of industrial park type: When carrying out low-carbon construction of industrial parks, determine their needs and functions and accurately identify the park type; (2) Industrial park carbon emission accounting: For different types of industrial parks, the main emission sources and emission factors are determined and carbon emission accounting is performed; the emission sources include industry, energy, construction, transportation, life and carbon sink; (3) Construction of the indicator system: Based on the carbon emission sources of industrial parks, the Delphi method is used to conduct expert consultation on different types of industrial parks, select key indicators for the construction of low-carbon industrial parks, and construct an indicator system for the technical path of low-carbon construction of different types of industrial parks; (4) Calculation and verification of indicator weights: Based on the indicator system of low-carbon construction technology paths for different types of industrial parks, the hierarchical structure model and judgment matrix of indicators at all levels are established using the analytic hierarchy process, and the weights of each indicator are calculated and consistency tested; (5) Screening of carbon emission reduction technology paths: Combined with the indicator weight coefficients obtained in step (4), the carbon reduction amount and carbon reduction cost of the carbon emission reduction technology paths in the low-carbon park construction technology package are calculated to screen out suitable carbon emission reduction technology paths for the park.

2. The industrial park construction optimization method according to claim 1, characterized in that: The step (2) uses the emission inventory method to calculate the carbon emissions of the industrial park: first, the production and living activities that will cause major greenhouse gas emissions are sorted and counted, and then the greenhouse gas emissions are calculated and analyzed based on the data table. The basic calculation method is to calculate the carbon emissions by multiplying the activity level by the emission factor; that is, After obtaining the carbon emission inventory, the following formula is used to calculate the carbon emissions of the park: Carbon emissions = activity data × carbon emission factor Where: Activity data – refers to the volume of production or consumption activities that result in CO2 emissions; Carbon emission factor - a coefficient corresponding to activity level data, including carbon content per unit calorific value or elemental carbon content, oxidation rate, etc., which represents the carbon dioxide emission coefficient per unit of production or consumption activity.

3. The industrial park construction optimization method according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The specific processing steps of the Delphi method in step (3) include: 3.1 Expert Selection In order to ensure the professionalism of this method, it is necessary to establish expert selection principles, including but not limited to: (A) having 3 years or more of work experience in carbon neutrality and carbon peak-related affairs; (B) more than 90% of experts have associate senior titles or above, and less than 10% of experts have intermediate titles; (C) being interested in the research project and actively completing two rounds of consultation; 3.2 Consultation Process According to the previous literature research and data collation, the technical path indicators of the low-carbon park construction technology package in step (5) were used to preliminarily establish the low-carbon construction technology path indicators of different types of industrial parks. The first round of expert consultation questionnaires were prepared using the "Wenjuxing" platform and sent by email. The consultation content mainly included the importance, judgment basis and familiarity of the indicators. The importance evaluation was divided into five evaluation levels: very important (5 points), relatively important (4 points), general (3 points), unimportant (2 points), and very unimportant (1 point). After each level of indicators, "modification opinions" were set for experts to increase or decrease the proposed indicators. The judgment basis was divided into theoretical analysis, practical experience, peer understanding and intuitive judgment. The familiarity was divided into five evaluation levels: very familiar (1.0), relatively familiar (0.75), generally familiar (0.50), not very familiar (0.25), and very unfamiliar (0.0). According to the results of the first round of consultation, the second round of consultation questionnaires were formed based on the comprehensive index screening criteria and expert revision opinions. After two rounds of consultation, if the expert opinions were basically consistent after statistical analysis, the questionnaire was terminated to form the final low-carbon construction technology path indicator system for different types of industrial parks; 3.3 Evaluation coefficient 3.3.1 Expert positivity coefficient Expert positivity coefficient = number of questionnaires collected in a certain round / number of questionnaires distributed in a certain round, that is, the effective recovery rate of the questionnaire (%). A recovery rate greater than 70% indicates that the experts are highly motivated; 3.3.2 Expert authority Expert authority (Cr) comes from the expert's self-evaluation, including familiarity (Cs) and judgment basis (Ca); calculation formula: Cr = (Ca + Cs) / 2, generally, if the expert authority coefficient is greater than 0.7, the result is considered reliable; 3.3.3 Coordination of expert opinions The coordination degree of expert opinions indicates the degree of consensus and concentration on all indicators, which is usually determined by the coefficient of variation (CV) and Kendall's coordination coefficient (W). The coefficient of variation (CV) indicates the coordination degree of experts on the relative importance and rationality of a certain indicator. The smaller the coefficient, the higher the coordination degree among experts. The calculation formula is: CV = standard deviation / mean deviation. It is generally considered that CV < 0.25 is an acceptable indicator. Kendall's coordination coefficient (W) is used to test the consistency of experts' scoring results on questionnaire indicators. The value of W is between 0 and 1. Under normal circumstances: Kendall's coordination coefficient < 0.2 indicates that the degree of consistency is poor; between 0.2 and 0.4 indicates that the degree of consistency is general; between 0.4 and 0.6 indicates that the degree of consistency is medium; between 0.6 and 0.8 indicates that the degree of consistency is strong; between 0.8 and 1.0 indicates that the degree of consistency is very strong. The larger the W value, the higher the degree of coordination of experts' scoring, and the more consistent the expert opinions are. Statistical analysis was performed using IBM SPSS Statistics 26.0 to obtain the arithmetic mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variation (CV) and Kendall's coordination coefficient (W) of the indicator scores.

4. The industrial park construction optimization method according to claim 1 is characterized in that the specific processing steps of the hierarchical analysis method in step (4) include: 4.1 Establishing a hierarchical model A hierarchical structure model was established based on the indicators obtained from the Delphi expert consultation: the overall goal of the hierarchical analysis was set, that is, the low-carbon construction technology path of different types of industrial parks, under which six calibers, including industry, energy, construction, transportation, life, and carbon sink, were set as first-level indicators; secondly, second-level indicators were set according to the affiliation relationship to form a comprehensive multi-level evaluation indicator system; 4.2 Constructing the Judgment Matrix Based on the hierarchical structure model, the first-level indicator judgment matrix and the second-level indicator judgment matrix were constructed. Experts were invited to use the Saaty 1-9 scaling method to compare the indicators in the matrix pairwise. After summarizing the scoring table, the geometric mean of each scale was calculated to construct the final judgment matrix. 4.3 Calculate the indicator weight value 4.3.1 Calculation of eigenvector W i ',have Where: a i,j is the scale value of the i-th row and j-th column; m is the total number of indicators; 4.3.2 Calculating the weight W i ,have 4.4 Consistency Verification 4.4.1 Calculation of the maximum eigenvalue λ max ,have Where: is vector B W The i-th component; 4.4.2 Consistency Check CR=CI / RI Where: CI is the calculation consistency index; RI is the average random consistency index; CR is the consistency ratio. When CR≤0.1, the consistency test passes. When CR>0.1, it fails, indicating that there is a logical error in the judgment matrix and it needs to be adjusted and calculated again.

5. The industrial park construction optimization method according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The low-carbon park construction technology package in step (5) is: Table 1 Low-carbon park construction technology package 6. The method for optimizing industrial park construction according to claim 5, characterized in that: The low-carbon park construction technology package calculates the carbon reduction amount and carbon reduction cost of the carbon reduction technology path. The calculation formulas for carbon reduction amount and carbon reduction cost are: HE i =ES i ×EF e ×EA Where: ER i ES is the amount of carbon dioxide reduced by the i technology within the applicable range; i Energy saving brought by the use of i technology; EFe e is the CO2 emission factor of the e-th energy source, t / GJ; EA is the total amount of units that can be constructed and used by technology i. Where: C i,y is the unit emission reduction cost of technology i in year y, 10,000 yuan / t; IC i,y is the investment and maintenance cost of technology i in year y, RMB 10,000; ER i The CO2 emission reduction potential generated by using i technology. The calculation parameters in the above formula are calculated based on my country's statistical yearbook data and historical statistical data.

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